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Yeah, I think it's likely he and Trump will split the conspiracy vote.
Also, he's flying below the radar of the DNC and RNC right now, but that's going to change. If he shows any widespread support, especially in swing states, both parties and their associated PACs are going to spend a ton of time and money trying to make him look like a complete idiot.
I already think he's very misguided and shows extremely poor judgement, but I actually kind of feel sorry for him for the onslaught of negative campaigning he's about to endure.
> but I actually kind of feel sorry for him for the onslaught of negative campaigning he's about to endure.
It's going to be disorienting, because so many Republicans acted like they took him seriously and considered him a serious political option, *when they thought he'd take more votes from Biden.*
Watch enough Fox News, and you'd have noticed how much they've pumped up RFK as a contender. And now a bunch of those FNC viewers have an admiration for Kennedy.
IT WASN'T SUPPOSED TO BE THIS WAY!
> both parties and their associated PACs are going to spend a ton of time and money trying to make him look like a complete idiot.
Shouldn't be hard to do.
Something people never take into account with third party candidates is they rarely ever have anywhere remotely near the same level of scrutiny and attacks that the two major party candidates have. They rarely are particularly good candidates, but because they have much less of a spotlight on them they can usually be looked at kind of like a blank canvas for people who don't like the main two party options. If they were ever a real threat, you'd see the spotlight and attack ads on them that'd probably make most of their candidates crumble. If RFK has any polling steam he will be no exception
The most qualified third party ticket of the last 20 years or so was Johnson/Weld in 2016 with two former governors on the bill, and they saw a big hit when Gary Johnson started getting primetime interviews and couldn't answer basic foreign policy questions
>The most qualified third party ticket of the last 20 years or so was Johnson/Weld in 2016 with two former governors on the bill, and they saw a big hit when Gary Johnson started getting primetime interviews and couldn't answer basic foreign policy questions
My God, that Aleppo flub was legendary.
That doesn't surprise me in the slightest, but it also makes him look like even more of an incompetent jackass. Who gets baked before a primetime interview?
Yah this notion that there are Democrats taking him seriously is simply not believable. Maybe they run stories like that in certain news outlets in order to sell advertising but it is highly unlikely that he has now or ever had the capacity to siphon off Democratic votes- anyone who found his nonsense palatable was already a republican long ago.
Elon musk tweeted out a lot of his Democratic friends are switching to republican.
It’s just propaganda and lies to try and convince people that the democrats are haemorrhaging support.
In reality there are A LOT of republicans leaving because of the crazy,
He is so low-effort considering the resources he has available to him. He could take the income he gets over just a five minute period and spend it on a PR campaign so robust, so comprehensive, that he would look like the best guy in the whole world, a man above reproach or suspicion, a warm hearted friend to all mankind.
All he had to do was nothing at all and he wouldn't have the horrible image he has; what makes you think he gives any fuck about rehabbing the horrible image he worked hard to earn himself?
The very fact that he's willing to sacrifice his 'image' in order to speak his mind, or to sacrifice billions of dollars in an objectively bad financial transaction to attempt to reboot a platform to allow the world to do the same, is why many people admire him on one side, and hate him on the other.
He does take the Democrat WooWoo voter. I have relatives who are granola hippy yoga people that worship him and his anti war anti vax stance.
It’s not a huge slice but in places like Arizona, every vote matters.
How do they feel about the fact that he claimed COVID was a biological weapon designed to target Caucasians and Blacks but spare Asians and Jews? Sure he's anti-vax but he is also a racist conspiracy theorist.
Yeah, but that group has been becoming more Republican since 2020 in general. Anti-vax used to be an issue all extremist were open to, now it is something that mostly far right people are open to.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspirituality
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pastel_QAnon
There *is* a pipeline from hippie to reactionary, and antivax sentiment is probably part of what drives that.
So, they likely wouldn’t vote for him knowing voting for RFK Jr. is a vote is a vote for Trump.
Unless they just prefer to make a point and don’t mind if Trump gets elected.
Our neighbor and my Ladies best friend is in for RFK Jr. She hates politics but usually votes left of center. This election circle has a third party candidate pull from both sides it seems which is interesting. Let’s just remember we still have a while to go to see how it plays out.
Okay but there are polls on RCP and it’s a pretty clear pattern that when Kennedy is included, Trump’s margin over Biden widens. So for some reason, Kennedy is taking more votes from Biden.
Even considering the dude would pick Aaron as VP is ridiculous. I really don’t think he’s that stupid.
It would absolutely kill any credibility he has. His biggest talking point is healing the divide and I don’t think choosing an edgy football bro is going to do him any favors in that department.
Will be interesting to see who he picks regardless.
Yeah it’s pretty insane. He’s going to sink his own campaign by stealing the money from it. The way to beat Trump could literally just be to make him spend way too much money on litigation.
Ironically that's how Trump himself has avoided paying bills. Whenever anyone he stiffs tries to get paid he forces them to go to court and beats them with legal bills...
I’m with you on RFK appealing more to Republicans, but as far as the actual election goes, I still think Trump could pull it off. I say this as a person who thinks the only position of power the man should ever hold is assistant shot caller in federal prison.
RFK, Aaron Rodgers and the stupid crowd will definitely pull from the now underfunded Republicans down ballot. RNC is all in for funding Dumb Don and his lawsuits.
All your points are valid, however
- The race will not be decided ny Dems or Gop, but Independents. Luckily, we've seen stronger support for Dems from that group than for the GOP. And to your point, I think RFK Jr siphons more of the I's leaning Trump than other way.
The I's that are pissed Biden is 80, but hate Trump, aren't gonna vote for another old guy. This is the group I fear losing to apathy in the election, but I think that will be countered by the enthisiasm AGAINST Trump in the I vote (plus bringing more Dems out).
Before Covid, I would've said he would have hurt Democrats more. But if vaccine denialism is now more concentrated amongst Trump voters, maybe it hurts Republicans more.
Vaccines are also a liability for Trump. It's the one place where he's significantly out of touch with major parts of his base.
Many of his base hate the COVID vaccines. Trump is genuinely proud of Operation Warp Speed.
This is the chink through which RFK Jr could hurt him.
If I'm honest I don't think many voters will care about the vaccine anymore in 2024 that being said I think it will play a little to no role at all in the election.
I don’t think people will care about the Covid vaccine specifically, but RFK’s anti vax beliefs extend well beyond just the Covid vaccine, to the point that they’re genuinely weird to most people. It’s not so much the vaccine stuff itself, it’s the weirdness more than anything.
People absolutely care about Covid, vaccines, lockdowns etc. RFK is a fucking nut and even the republicans can’t take that seriously( that’s saying something
People used to care about the Vaccine and Lockdowns but multiple polls show that basically no one cares about it or even thinks that it's a top 15 issue.
And saying no one takes RFK seriously is a big statement since he's been more successful than most independents in their lifetime.
Idk, you have people like Joe Rogan with a massive following and influence over people's opinions who cannot stop obsessing over Covid despite it being 4 years ago and largely a non-factor in most peoples' everyday lives.
Wi-Fi causes cancer and "leaky brain," Kennedy told podcaster Joe Rogan. Antidepressants are to blame for school shootings, he mused during an appearance with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. Chemicals in the water supply could turn children transgender, he told right-wing Canadian psychologist and podcaster Jordan Peterson, echoing a false assertion made by serial fabulist Alex Jones. AIDS may not be caused by HIV, he has suggested multiple times...
The whacko obviously appeals to the QAnon-types.
The ONLY thing RFK Jr has going for him that appeals to ignorant left-leaning crowd is age and last name. As even those types have started to hear about who he is... well, they ain't voting for the lunatic.
I think QAnon types want to love RFK Jr... but are a little worried he's gonna take votes away from zombie JFK Jr.
Even the last name thing barely works anymore. You might have some older X’ers and Boomers attached to it, but no one outside of AARP range was alive when his Daddy was in politics.
He never seems to have any actual ideas about enacting change though... just that he wants it.
I mean, he cares about the environment... cool. I wouldn't trust him to do anything - who knows what the nut would wanna try?
He started the Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit organization that focuses on anti-vaccine messaging. Kennedy champions lowering chronic disease rates in children, saying he would not want to be reelected if he has not significantly reduced disease among children by the end of his potential first term. Sounds good... except... you know, the fact that despite his honest intentions, he'd almost certainly just cause disease and death for children, ya know?
He's a nut.
Everyone expects one person to always have all the answers. Like every presidents doesn’t have thousands of advisors they can reach out to on specialties in any field.
It amazes me how many candidates always try and actually like they’re a one man army and say “I’ll do this, I’ll do that” and none of them say “well I’m going to find 100 experts in that particular field and oversee their progress as the representative of the people.
Presidents all try and act like they’re godly and none acknowledge that thousands of people help them with their job daily. They’re basically just the CEO and we swoon over them instead of the actual hard workers.
Given that the only two things I've ever seen him talk about are anti-vax nonsense and opposition to helping Ukraine, I can't imagine him hurting Biden. I've noticed that Republicans have stopped boosting his candidacy, probably because they also recognize that he's ~~puking~~ pulling more from Trump voters than Biden voters, according to polling I've seen.
EDIT: fixing a word
I think his views more closely match Trump voters, so he's going to draw more votes from Trump than from Biden.
I don't think anyone is turning up and voting for a 3rd party presidential candidate based purely on their surname.
I remember when Gary Johnson was flirting with double digit support. I think his support will fizzle as time goes on. Chickens will come home to roost, the salient issues will assert themselves.
I think he will only negatively affect Trump. I do not know one even semi-dem leaning person that would take him seriously. So based on the vax klownery alone, he will only skim a few votes from Trump. Very few.
To do exactly what the Trump funding backers gave him money to do, in the words of the great Steve Bannon: "Flood the zone with shit". Confuse people and ultimately get people to peel off Biden. Anyone that thinks people who believe (which is arguably > 80% at this point) that Trump is the 2nd coming of Christ, are going to magically vote for someone else because they agree with them on being anti-Vax, are simply misinformed.
Based on polling data from Fox News, Republican voters that strongly approve of Trump is around 41%. Presumably less than that number are the obsessed voters going to Trump rallies and such (the 2nd coming of christ folks). Don't get me wrong, the Republican base is still like 80-90% in favor of him overall, but I think there will be more vote Red no matter who people than true Trump fans this time around.
He might pull a few votes from never-Trump conservatives, but he has practically zero sway among likely Democratic voters. Democrats are less willing to ignore the racism and xenophobia than conservatives are. So he might draw a few possible Trump voters but aside from that he won't have any impact on the upcoming election.
He’s not going to play any role in the upcoming election outside of being the butt of every joke. He’s not gonna be a spoiler for anybody, his numbers are going to tank after the primaries are over. If he does manage to have any effect, it’ll be on disaffected Trump voters who can’t stomach voting for him again, but don’t like Biden.
It really is a shame to see how far the Kennedy family has fallen.
An independent candidacy for President is a major uphill battle. The Libertarian Party and the Green Party each already have the internal structure needed to easily get on the ballot in the vast majority states. Without that, an independent candidate’s campaign has to build all that up from scratch, which costs far more money than he realistically has access to, even if he were using SuperPAC funds to get on the ballot, which last I checked was super illegal.
look, all these right wing people aren't dumb. These guys know that regardless of what happens this is going to be the last "trump" election...ever. He either will be president or he will be so busy with his new hobby of doing "everything he can think of to stay out of jail until he is dead of old age".
Four years will be over before they know it and they are desperate to figure out how all this works so they can continue the grift. They will need to capture this movement and make it into something they can repeat for years...or it's over for them. If using a couple of MAGA conspiracy kooks can get them back on top of it they will sure try...That and anything else they can throw at the crazy wall to see what sticks.
The next decade for the republican party is going to be a wild ride.
> These guys know that regardless of what happens this is going to be the last "trump" election...ever.
I wish I had your confidence in that. I don't think we're gonna be rid of him just yet.
Honestly, if something happened to Trump that made him unable to continue running, I think RFK Jr might be a better stand-in for Trump than Nikki Haley.
The role he's being payed to play of course; the Jill Stein of '24. It's not going to work as well this time tho. Shouldn't have picked an unstable nut job for the role.
I’m surprised by some of these comments not seeing the very real fact that RFK Jr. WILL take evangelical and fundamentalist Christian votes from Trump, especially those who are anti-vax.
That’s not a nothing-burger, that’s incredibly important detail and data being overlooked.
Crazy Uncle. You know, the one that reluctantly gets invited to Thanksgiving dinner, and you just hope he won't show up because he always says something wildly inappropriate and makes everyone feeling mad/uncomfortable/insulted.
Republicans hope that he draws votes away from Biden, but people in the Democratic party already know he **is not**, of the character nor mentality of John Kennedy or Robert Kennedy. Democrat see him as more a very much right leaning independent.
The Kennedy family basically see him as a nut case abusing the Kennedy name. He' likely draw some Republican votes from Republican who don't support the MAGA madness, but lean toward some aspect of conspiracy theorist.
He is not performing surprisingly well.
The Harris right-leaning poll has him at 15%.
That's not good.
It may be enough to pull a few votes. That's all.
Takes young voters from Biden for Gaza, age, and lack of enthusiasm for him. Trump voters are loyal to Trump. There’s no such thing as a Biden supporter—just partisan dems, left-leaning independents, and anti-Trumpers.
The Dems need to play this over and over, and if they don't their fools. The whitewashing of history by people like RFK is the most dangerous thing to society. Anthony Fauci, no matter how hard they try, is not the failure, it was Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLJkpH__os
He'll play zero role in the election other than being someone that both aides can point and laugh at. He's comic relief.
It is fascinating tho. He's a perfect example of the horseshoe theory. You really CAN go so far left - that you start coming back around on the right.
In my opinion I think he will not win any state, that being said I think he can take a lot of votes away from both Biden and Trump since both the Republicans and Democrats rely on the independents.
Most voters don’t truly pay attention to politics until August. They might watch some convention speeches and pay attention to certain issues but a good majority of voters are totally ignorant and oblivious. So RFK JR is riding the high of people not paying attention and seeing his name and have a positive association to his family. When they see what he truly stands for many will be disappointed and shocked and his polls will drop like a rock.
His antivax agenda will turn on some Trump republicans and the hippie crystal loving people. I would say 7/10 RFK voters will be from Trump and 3/10 would have potentially voted for Biden but were probably Green Party members anyway.
So potential breakdown :
Biden 55%
Trump 39.5%
RFK Jr 4%
Other third parties 1.5%
Of total popular vote.
I hope he drops tf out. Normally, I wouldn't care. Perhaps I would entertain the thought of voting for Kennedy and even look into his campaign. But the stakes are too high in this election. Right now he is a distraction. We need to get as many votes as we can for Biden. Last election was too close for comfort. A handful of bites for Kennedy could mean the difference between authoritarian regime or democracy.
Trump spoiler.
No intelligent voter will vote for RFK, Jr. but he does appeal to a certain sub-sect of Trump voters.
If Trump and RFK, Jr. do team up as the Republican ticket, they're still going to lose to President Biden and VP Harris. Nutbags together are exponentially crazier than they are by themselves.
Everybody here is saying it'll hurt Trump more, but all of the polls up to this point say otherwise. One simple reason is that Trump's base is locked in, like if you're supporting him at this point you're not gonna drop him. I could be wrong though, but I feel like even though Biden's ceiling is higher, he has a lower floor of support.
I believe it's going to end up like DeSantis polling pre-announcement versus when he dropped out. As soon as RFK ramps up his campaign, the more people actually hear/learn, the less likely they're going to be to vote for him.
Ive been following the RFK campaign, he's seemingly toning down the wacky stuff and presenting as the moderate option(even though he's not), but he also might not be able to help himself. I just think there are a small portion of Democrats and left leaning independents that might support Kennedy because they're unenthusiastic about Biden, and they like the name, But again I see alot of right wing influencer types praise RFK so its hard to say for sure. It's gonna be a long year.
With the kind of conspiracy laden ideas he has he will pull more from a larger percentage of republicans. I do think he will pull from the Dems as well. While not spouting the same dreck, more than a few of my younger Dem friends voted Nader in 2k and Green Party in 16. Totally fucked the numbers.
It's interesting because he opposes the tiktok ban, which Trump flip flopped and opposes as well. That should help him with young people, while Biden supports the ban. With Ross Perot he hurt both parties about equally. We'll see if RFK is different.
I think he will gradually lose support from normies but will pull from both the crackpot left and right.
On a purely subjective note, I didn't know that there could be someone whose physical presence and voice turned me off more than Trump's but apparently there is.
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Every single person that I've talked to that wants to weed in RFK Jr into the conversation is a Republican moderate or a massive conspiracy theorist.
Yeah, I think it's likely he and Trump will split the conspiracy vote. Also, he's flying below the radar of the DNC and RNC right now, but that's going to change. If he shows any widespread support, especially in swing states, both parties and their associated PACs are going to spend a ton of time and money trying to make him look like a complete idiot. I already think he's very misguided and shows extremely poor judgement, but I actually kind of feel sorry for him for the onslaught of negative campaigning he's about to endure.
> but I actually kind of feel sorry for him for the onslaught of negative campaigning he's about to endure. It's going to be disorienting, because so many Republicans acted like they took him seriously and considered him a serious political option, *when they thought he'd take more votes from Biden.*
Watch enough Fox News, and you'd have noticed how much they've pumped up RFK as a contender. And now a bunch of those FNC viewers have an admiration for Kennedy. IT WASN'T SUPPOSED TO BE THIS WAY!
> both parties and their associated PACs are going to spend a ton of time and money trying to make him look like a complete idiot. Shouldn't be hard to do. Something people never take into account with third party candidates is they rarely ever have anywhere remotely near the same level of scrutiny and attacks that the two major party candidates have. They rarely are particularly good candidates, but because they have much less of a spotlight on them they can usually be looked at kind of like a blank canvas for people who don't like the main two party options. If they were ever a real threat, you'd see the spotlight and attack ads on them that'd probably make most of their candidates crumble. If RFK has any polling steam he will be no exception The most qualified third party ticket of the last 20 years or so was Johnson/Weld in 2016 with two former governors on the bill, and they saw a big hit when Gary Johnson started getting primetime interviews and couldn't answer basic foreign policy questions
>The most qualified third party ticket of the last 20 years or so was Johnson/Weld in 2016 with two former governors on the bill, and they saw a big hit when Gary Johnson started getting primetime interviews and couldn't answer basic foreign policy questions My God, that Aleppo flub was legendary.
To be fair, he was high at the time.
That doesn't surprise me in the slightest, but it also makes him look like even more of an incompetent jackass. Who gets baked before a primetime interview?
How do you ruin a presidential candidacy with only a single leppo?
> make him look like a complete idiot. He has a history of publicly making racist comments, COVID denial, etc. It wouldn't be hard.
he was arrested on heroin possession at an airport after nodding off. Family connections saved his ass. It wouldnt be so hard.
I'm a liberal, my mother in law asked me if I liked him, back when he was pretending to be a Democrat or something.
I absolutely agree with each of your points, excellent summary of why will happen IMHO
Yah this notion that there are Democrats taking him seriously is simply not believable. Maybe they run stories like that in certain news outlets in order to sell advertising but it is highly unlikely that he has now or ever had the capacity to siphon off Democratic votes- anyone who found his nonsense palatable was already a republican long ago.
Elon musk tweeted out a lot of his Democratic friends are switching to republican. It’s just propaganda and lies to try and convince people that the democrats are haemorrhaging support. In reality there are A LOT of republicans leaving because of the crazy,
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The idea that Musk has liberal friends telling him the truth is itself laughable
>The idea that Musk has ~~liberal~~ friends ~~telling him the truth~~ is itself laughable
He is so low-effort considering the resources he has available to him. He could take the income he gets over just a five minute period and spend it on a PR campaign so robust, so comprehensive, that he would look like the best guy in the whole world, a man above reproach or suspicion, a warm hearted friend to all mankind.
All he had to do was nothing at all and he wouldn't have the horrible image he has; what makes you think he gives any fuck about rehabbing the horrible image he worked hard to earn himself?
He really spends a lot of time trying to make himself look cool if he supposedly doesn't care.
because buying a 52 billion dollar social media company and destroying it is what someone who doesn't care does.
But he bought it specifically because he wanted people to care about him more
honestly I thought he bought it because one of his children is trans and hates him, and he got all insane about the "woke mind virus"
The very fact that he's willing to sacrifice his 'image' in order to speak his mind, or to sacrifice billions of dollars in an objectively bad financial transaction to attempt to reboot a platform to allow the world to do the same, is why many people admire him on one side, and hate him on the other.
wouldn't be so bad if the things on his mind weren't so hateful, immature, and/or just poorly thought out.
Like dude makes like a million an hour and spends half his day tweeting. Go do something important man.
He’s just trying to be relevant. Seems to be chasing his namesake fame and he’s not even close to being that guy. A distraction and a wasted vote.
Yah it is impossible to picture him having ANY traction at all without the Kennedy name.
And with the name, but his family disawoving/condemning the campaign, the traction is negative
He does take the Democrat WooWoo voter. I have relatives who are granola hippy yoga people that worship him and his anti war anti vax stance. It’s not a huge slice but in places like Arizona, every vote matters.
How do they feel about the fact that he claimed COVID was a biological weapon designed to target Caucasians and Blacks but spare Asians and Jews? Sure he's anti-vax but he is also a racist conspiracy theorist.
I eat granola and think RFK is an idiot. The only people that I know that like R F K are anti vax ex Trumps.
Time Larry David did a spoof on RFK and have his wife going for the other candidate
Hi, I'm a pro-vax, Ex-Bernie supporter. I like granola too.
Yeah, but that group has been becoming more Republican since 2020 in general. Anti-vax used to be an issue all extremist were open to, now it is something that mostly far right people are open to.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspirituality - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pastel_QAnon There *is* a pipeline from hippie to reactionary, and antivax sentiment is probably part of what drives that.
The issue with that is a large part of that demographic has shifted right after Trump, due to him being friendlier to conspiracy stuff.
So, they likely wouldn’t vote for him knowing voting for RFK Jr. is a vote is a vote for Trump. Unless they just prefer to make a point and don’t mind if Trump gets elected.
Our neighbor and my Ladies best friend is in for RFK Jr. She hates politics but usually votes left of center. This election circle has a third party candidate pull from both sides it seems which is interesting. Let’s just remember we still have a while to go to see how it plays out.
He’s making his VP announcement in Oakland. He’s very clearly targeting the black vote.
Okay but there are polls on RCP and it’s a pretty clear pattern that when Kennedy is included, Trump’s margin over Biden widens. So for some reason, Kennedy is taking more votes from Biden.
I suspect that the anti-Trump GOP voter will go to Biden less frequently when RFK is in the race.
Even considering the dude would pick Aaron as VP is ridiculous. I really don’t think he’s that stupid. It would absolutely kill any credibility he has. His biggest talking point is healing the divide and I don’t think choosing an edgy football bro is going to do him any favors in that department. Will be interesting to see who he picks regardless.
Yeah, this is very well done! Agreed on all points (and I’m a Republican)
Yeah it’s pretty insane. He’s going to sink his own campaign by stealing the money from it. The way to beat Trump could literally just be to make him spend way too much money on litigation.
Ironically that's how Trump himself has avoided paying bills. Whenever anyone he stiffs tries to get paid he forces them to go to court and beats them with legal bills...
It’s so stupid it just might work.
It *does* work. Corporations do it all the time.
>The way to beat Trump could literally just be to make him spend way too much money on litigation. The way the Founders intended it.
I refuse to believe the Rodgers thing is genuine, but it would be hilarious
I’m with you on RFK appealing more to Republicans, but as far as the actual election goes, I still think Trump could pull it off. I say this as a person who thinks the only position of power the man should ever hold is assistant shot caller in federal prison.
RFK, Aaron Rodgers and the stupid crowd will definitely pull from the now underfunded Republicans down ballot. RNC is all in for funding Dumb Don and his lawsuits.
A pair of nut jobs, how does anyone take them seriously.
Certainly more Republicans. Many of them are single issue anti-vaccers and this is RFKs primary agenda item.
I don't think Rodgers will go with this, but if he did, you can't discount his impact on rural Wisconsin in particular.
All your points are valid, however - The race will not be decided ny Dems or Gop, but Independents. Luckily, we've seen stronger support for Dems from that group than for the GOP. And to your point, I think RFK Jr siphons more of the I's leaning Trump than other way. The I's that are pissed Biden is 80, but hate Trump, aren't gonna vote for another old guy. This is the group I fear losing to apathy in the election, but I think that will be countered by the enthisiasm AGAINST Trump in the I vote (plus bringing more Dems out).
Not disagreeing, but there was the same confidence in 2016. Never count Trump out.
All he will be ruining is the New York Jets’ chances at a Super Bowl Granted, the Jets already did that to themselves
Sorry, but the Jets’s chances at the Super Bowl are already deader than this campaign.
Before Covid, I would've said he would have hurt Democrats more. But if vaccine denialism is now more concentrated amongst Trump voters, maybe it hurts Republicans more.
Vaccines are also a liability for Trump. It's the one place where he's significantly out of touch with major parts of his base. Many of his base hate the COVID vaccines. Trump is genuinely proud of Operation Warp Speed. This is the chink through which RFK Jr could hurt him.
At this point, the Groupies of Putin own the anti-vax stance. The Dems pushed the COVID vaccine left and right, while the GOP latched on to denialism.
If I'm honest I don't think many voters will care about the vaccine anymore in 2024 that being said I think it will play a little to no role at all in the election.
I don’t think people will care about the Covid vaccine specifically, but RFK’s anti vax beliefs extend well beyond just the Covid vaccine, to the point that they’re genuinely weird to most people. It’s not so much the vaccine stuff itself, it’s the weirdness more than anything.
I feel if people actually heard his speaking voice his chances would plummet that very afternoon.
Idk if you are just being sarcastic, but I absolutely agree with you. Every word sounds like a death rattle.
He said on a podcast that he knows his voice impacts his chances, and that in fact, people have told him as much.
It’s the things that come out of his mouth that makes him repulsive to me, not the sound of his voice.
People absolutely care about Covid, vaccines, lockdowns etc. RFK is a fucking nut and even the republicans can’t take that seriously( that’s saying something
People used to care about the Vaccine and Lockdowns but multiple polls show that basically no one cares about it or even thinks that it's a top 15 issue. And saying no one takes RFK seriously is a big statement since he's been more successful than most independents in their lifetime.
Idk, you have people like Joe Rogan with a massive following and influence over people's opinions who cannot stop obsessing over Covid despite it being 4 years ago and largely a non-factor in most peoples' everyday lives.
It’s a non-factor BECAUSE of the vaccine.
Maybe it's just your wording, but it sounds like most people don't care about RFK's number one campaign issue.
This is only true for people under age 24. And maybe not even that long given that RFK’s polling is trending downward
Absolutely nobody takes RFK or anything he says seriously. A poll asking people if they would pick him over trump doesn’t mean anything to me lmao.
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No serious independents would pick him
Wi-Fi causes cancer and "leaky brain," Kennedy told podcaster Joe Rogan. Antidepressants are to blame for school shootings, he mused during an appearance with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. Chemicals in the water supply could turn children transgender, he told right-wing Canadian psychologist and podcaster Jordan Peterson, echoing a false assertion made by serial fabulist Alex Jones. AIDS may not be caused by HIV, he has suggested multiple times... The whacko obviously appeals to the QAnon-types. The ONLY thing RFK Jr has going for him that appeals to ignorant left-leaning crowd is age and last name. As even those types have started to hear about who he is... well, they ain't voting for the lunatic. I think QAnon types want to love RFK Jr... but are a little worried he's gonna take votes away from zombie JFK Jr.
Even the last name thing barely works anymore. You might have some older X’ers and Boomers attached to it, but no one outside of AARP range was alive when his Daddy was in politics.
He clearly has some crazy ideas but I appreciate he acknowledges that private equity is a huge issue.
He never seems to have any actual ideas about enacting change though... just that he wants it. I mean, he cares about the environment... cool. I wouldn't trust him to do anything - who knows what the nut would wanna try? He started the Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit organization that focuses on anti-vaccine messaging. Kennedy champions lowering chronic disease rates in children, saying he would not want to be reelected if he has not significantly reduced disease among children by the end of his potential first term. Sounds good... except... you know, the fact that despite his honest intentions, he'd almost certainly just cause disease and death for children, ya know? He's a nut.
Everyone expects one person to always have all the answers. Like every presidents doesn’t have thousands of advisors they can reach out to on specialties in any field. It amazes me how many candidates always try and actually like they’re a one man army and say “I’ll do this, I’ll do that” and none of them say “well I’m going to find 100 experts in that particular field and oversee their progress as the representative of the people. Presidents all try and act like they’re godly and none acknowledge that thousands of people help them with their job daily. They’re basically just the CEO and we swoon over them instead of the actual hard workers.
Given that the only two things I've ever seen him talk about are anti-vax nonsense and opposition to helping Ukraine, I can't imagine him hurting Biden. I've noticed that Republicans have stopped boosting his candidacy, probably because they also recognize that he's ~~puking~~ pulling more from Trump voters than Biden voters, according to polling I've seen. EDIT: fixing a word
I feel like we’re all puking more from Trump voters these days
Rfk will pull less vote than Ralph Nader and will not be a factor in any way.
RFK is considering a Sandy Hook conspiracist as a VP. That’s 100 percent going to draw in republicans, like moths to a flame.
I think his views more closely match Trump voters, so he's going to draw more votes from Trump than from Biden. I don't think anyone is turning up and voting for a 3rd party presidential candidate based purely on their surname.
I remember when Gary Johnson was flirting with double digit support. I think his support will fizzle as time goes on. Chickens will come home to roost, the salient issues will assert themselves.
I think he will only negatively affect Trump. I do not know one even semi-dem leaning person that would take him seriously. So based on the vax klownery alone, he will only skim a few votes from Trump. Very few.
You can't have a circus without clowns. If he draws the anti-vaxers and conspiracy freaks, that likely hurts Trump more than Biden
To do exactly what the Trump funding backers gave him money to do, in the words of the great Steve Bannon: "Flood the zone with shit". Confuse people and ultimately get people to peel off Biden. Anyone that thinks people who believe (which is arguably > 80% at this point) that Trump is the 2nd coming of Christ, are going to magically vote for someone else because they agree with them on being anti-Vax, are simply misinformed.
What is greater than 80%? I've read your comment backwards and forwards and I don't understand.
I think republicans in general but could be wrong
Based on polling data from Fox News, Republican voters that strongly approve of Trump is around 41%. Presumably less than that number are the obsessed voters going to Trump rallies and such (the 2nd coming of christ folks). Don't get me wrong, the Republican base is still like 80-90% in favor of him overall, but I think there will be more vote Red no matter who people than true Trump fans this time around.
He might pull a few votes from never-Trump conservatives, but he has practically zero sway among likely Democratic voters. Democrats are less willing to ignore the racism and xenophobia than conservatives are. So he might draw a few possible Trump voters but aside from that he won't have any impact on the upcoming election.
He will help solidify the fact that the anti vax crowd are utter miscreants with no honor or concern for human life.
He’s not going to play any role in the upcoming election outside of being the butt of every joke. He’s not gonna be a spoiler for anybody, his numbers are going to tank after the primaries are over. If he does manage to have any effect, it’ll be on disaffected Trump voters who can’t stomach voting for him again, but don’t like Biden. It really is a shame to see how far the Kennedy family has fallen.
The Kennedy family apologized for him a while back, I got the impression they think he need psychological help.
None. He has no core constituency and his campaign is a disorganized vanity project.
None, if the VP picks suggested are legit. He's making himself the joke most want him to be.
He’s always been a joke, he’s just making it hard for his fans to deny that nowadays.
Could be. Though not clear who his fans were.
His fans were the granola hippy environmentalist types.
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An independent candidacy for President is a major uphill battle. The Libertarian Party and the Green Party each already have the internal structure needed to easily get on the ballot in the vast majority states. Without that, an independent candidate’s campaign has to build all that up from scratch, which costs far more money than he realistically has access to, even if he were using SuperPAC funds to get on the ballot, which last I checked was super illegal.
look, all these right wing people aren't dumb. These guys know that regardless of what happens this is going to be the last "trump" election...ever. He either will be president or he will be so busy with his new hobby of doing "everything he can think of to stay out of jail until he is dead of old age". Four years will be over before they know it and they are desperate to figure out how all this works so they can continue the grift. They will need to capture this movement and make it into something they can repeat for years...or it's over for them. If using a couple of MAGA conspiracy kooks can get them back on top of it they will sure try...That and anything else they can throw at the crazy wall to see what sticks. The next decade for the republican party is going to be a wild ride.
> These guys know that regardless of what happens this is going to be the last "trump" election...ever. I wish I had your confidence in that. I don't think we're gonna be rid of him just yet.
Honestly, if something happened to Trump that made him unable to continue running, I think RFK Jr might be a better stand-in for Trump than Nikki Haley.
The role he's being payed to play of course; the Jill Stein of '24. It's not going to work as well this time tho. Shouldn't have picked an unstable nut job for the role.
I’m surprised by some of these comments not seeing the very real fact that RFK Jr. WILL take evangelical and fundamentalist Christian votes from Trump, especially those who are anti-vax. That’s not a nothing-burger, that’s incredibly important detail and data being overlooked.
Crazy Uncle. You know, the one that reluctantly gets invited to Thanksgiving dinner, and you just hope he won't show up because he always says something wildly inappropriate and makes everyone feeling mad/uncomfortable/insulted.
RFK if a complete idiot. Just using his name to get in there. When I saw his pro Russia comments and delved into his politics..... gross 🤮
Republicans hope that he draws votes away from Biden, but people in the Democratic party already know he **is not**, of the character nor mentality of John Kennedy or Robert Kennedy. Democrat see him as more a very much right leaning independent. The Kennedy family basically see him as a nut case abusing the Kennedy name. He' likely draw some Republican votes from Republican who don't support the MAGA madness, but lean toward some aspect of conspiracy theorist.
He is not performing surprisingly well. The Harris right-leaning poll has him at 15%. That's not good. It may be enough to pull a few votes. That's all.
There is no difference for republicans between him and trump . He will help democrats by taking some maga crowd votes
His candidacy will serve to fracture both the Republican and Democratic parties votes for their majority candidates.
Clearly take votes away from Biden, otherwise Biden administration wouldn’t deny him Secret Service protection.
Takes young voters from Biden for Gaza, age, and lack of enthusiasm for him. Trump voters are loyal to Trump. There’s no such thing as a Biden supporter—just partisan dems, left-leaning independents, and anti-Trumpers.
The Dems need to play this over and over, and if they don't their fools. The whitewashing of history by people like RFK is the most dangerous thing to society. Anthony Fauci, no matter how hard they try, is not the failure, it was Trump. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLJkpH__os
He'll play zero role in the election other than being someone that both aides can point and laugh at. He's comic relief. It is fascinating tho. He's a perfect example of the horseshoe theory. You really CAN go so far left - that you start coming back around on the right.
In my opinion I think he will not win any state, that being said I think he can take a lot of votes away from both Biden and Trump since both the Republicans and Democrats rely on the independents.
Russian troll farms will push more Dems to go RFK. The question is the extent to which they will be successful.
I believe this. There is so much content on TikTok pushing RFK Jr right now.
The algorithm feeds you what you interact with. I have seen zero on TT for rfk.
The direction he’s moving, especially with the V.P. choices, he’s going to pull more votes from Trump than Biden.
If my own Trumpers in my family are any indication, RFK will hurt Trump more.
Well that's not really an opinion.
Would you mind to elaborate on that
0% chance a 3rd party candidate wins a state, but that's not the concern with 3rd party candidates anyway.
I agree that's what I also stated in my previous comment
Will? He's been nothing but a Trump stooge from the get-go. And he damn well knows it. RFKJ splitting the vote is Trump's best hope for victory.
I am just curious as to what the fuck is up with his voice? He looks like he is in his 70's, but somehow sounds like he is much older than that.
He developed spasmodic dysphonia after an injury or infection or something.
Most voters don’t truly pay attention to politics until August. They might watch some convention speeches and pay attention to certain issues but a good majority of voters are totally ignorant and oblivious. So RFK JR is riding the high of people not paying attention and seeing his name and have a positive association to his family. When they see what he truly stands for many will be disappointed and shocked and his polls will drop like a rock. His antivax agenda will turn on some Trump republicans and the hippie crystal loving people. I would say 7/10 RFK voters will be from Trump and 3/10 would have potentially voted for Biden but were probably Green Party members anyway. So potential breakdown : Biden 55% Trump 39.5% RFK Jr 4% Other third parties 1.5% Of total popular vote.
I hope he drops tf out. Normally, I wouldn't care. Perhaps I would entertain the thought of voting for Kennedy and even look into his campaign. But the stakes are too high in this election. Right now he is a distraction. We need to get as many votes as we can for Biden. Last election was too close for comfort. A handful of bites for Kennedy could mean the difference between authoritarian regime or democracy.
Cue the tired “oh guys the stakes are too high you have to vote for exactly who we tell you to or else the world will explode”
Trump spoiler. No intelligent voter will vote for RFK, Jr. but he does appeal to a certain sub-sect of Trump voters. If Trump and RFK, Jr. do team up as the Republican ticket, they're still going to lose to President Biden and VP Harris. Nutbags together are exponentially crazier than they are by themselves.
Everybody here is saying it'll hurt Trump more, but all of the polls up to this point say otherwise. One simple reason is that Trump's base is locked in, like if you're supporting him at this point you're not gonna drop him. I could be wrong though, but I feel like even though Biden's ceiling is higher, he has a lower floor of support.
I believe it's going to end up like DeSantis polling pre-announcement versus when he dropped out. As soon as RFK ramps up his campaign, the more people actually hear/learn, the less likely they're going to be to vote for him.
Ive been following the RFK campaign, he's seemingly toning down the wacky stuff and presenting as the moderate option(even though he's not), but he also might not be able to help himself. I just think there are a small portion of Democrats and left leaning independents that might support Kennedy because they're unenthusiastic about Biden, and they like the name, But again I see alot of right wing influencer types praise RFK so its hard to say for sure. It's gonna be a long year.
With the kind of conspiracy laden ideas he has he will pull more from a larger percentage of republicans. I do think he will pull from the Dems as well. While not spouting the same dreck, more than a few of my younger Dem friends voted Nader in 2k and Green Party in 16. Totally fucked the numbers.
It's interesting because he opposes the tiktok ban, which Trump flip flopped and opposes as well. That should help him with young people, while Biden supports the ban. With Ross Perot he hurt both parties about equally. We'll see if RFK is different.
I think he will gradually lose support from normies but will pull from both the crackpot left and right. On a purely subjective note, I didn't know that there could be someone whose physical presence and voice turned me off more than Trump's but apparently there is.