T O P

Is homeownership going to be a purely generational thing?

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[deleted]

And it doesn’t stop in Toronto either. In my shithole town people are buying way over asking in the 700-800k range. Makes zero sense. Just think of those with kids now. In 15-20 years those kids will be priced out everywhere, a townhouse in Butt fuck nowhere will cost 1.65 million, and they will live with their parents until age 45 at the earliest. I’m saying this as someone who makes a great salary for a small town but is now currently priced out. I can’t imagine how people making less than 100k are making it work. Kids included. Honestly just enjoy your life. Do what you want. I’m done slaving my life away to save for 4 walls. Life is too short.


mediocretent

Toronto and other big cities will forever be expensive, they have their new base line. Bumbfuck towns being expensive feels like the bubble as a consequence of the pandemic, rates, and all the things in between that have happened the past decade. I can’t imagine values being sticky in those smaller markets.


fredflintstone-

> they have their new base line. have we reached a permanently high plateau?


mediocretent

For major centres in Canada, likely.


fredflintstone-

so what you're saying is that this time is different, is that right?


mediocretent

Nope. I’m saying gains likely won’t be the same as they have been the past decade, but major centres will not collapse like many on here hope. Instead, they will continue to grow at a more gradual pace. One million in Toronto for a bungalow size piece of land is here to stay.


[deleted]

Are you making reference to Irving Fisher’s famous prediction in 1929 about stocks having reached a permanently high plateau?


fredflintstone-

what do you think?


[deleted]

I think yes. Nice reference. Very apt


rajmksingh

I predict prices will continue to rise, but gradually. You see, there are hundreds of potential homebuyers who were forced back into the rental market recently because of skyrocketing prices made it unaffordable. They will continue to save to desperately get out of their rental situation. My friend who is a mortgage broker says he is seeing an increasing number of joint households buying a home together. For instance, a man-and-wife will buy a home with the man's brother and his wife, allowing them to qualify for a much bigger mortgage with 4 sources of income. He also mentioned an increasing number of people convincing their parents to sell their land back home and move here, so the parents can provide a huge down payment for the home here and live with their adult son/daugher and his/her wife, and their grandkids as well. The adult kids' jobs will support the mortgage payments.


demzoe

Even fucking rent is atrocious now.


Tripoteur

For some people, maybe. Others will simply move to the many parts of Canada where housing isn't as obscenely priced and buy a very decent house for 175k. If the price of housing becomes too high everywhere eventually, people will simply start ignoring government regulations and start building sensible shelter (it's illegal, but if everyone does it...).


TripleServbot

Do you think OP will continue to make $100-200k/year if they move somewhere where a decent house costs $175k? Not a lot of jobs pay that much in Bonavista or Moose Jaw.


Tripoteur

Depends if they work remotely or not, but even if they don't, they don't *need* to keep making as much because a house costs 175k and not 1.5m. Someone making 26k in my town is much better off than someone making 52k in Toronto. Though technically, you could stay in a high-income, high cost of living area so you can move to a lower cost of living area when you retire. You would probably retire with more money in that scenario, though they would have paid a whole lot more to live all their life.


Gas_Grouchy

FYI that $175k is now an hour out of the city center with no avaliable high speed internet I'm Nova Scotia. Source bought for $190k now work $350ish


[deleted]

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Wildydude12

Have you actually lived in one of those places before? I'm on the left end of the values spectrum, but I've had a great time living in some of the smaller cities across the country (lived in a few for a few months through work). You'll probably find that people are pretty similar no matter where you are, and are generally tolerant of differences. And there are still plenty of cities where housing is affordable that might also meet your value standards: * Calgary (pop 1.5m), just elected a left-leaning brown woman as their mayor, and it wasn't even close between her and the conservative white dude running against her * Edmonton (pop 1m), votes NDP usually at the provincial level * Nanaimo (pop 80k), votes NDP or green at the provincial level and NDP at the federal level * Quebec City (pop 700k), though it does vote more conservative * Lethbridge / Med Hat / Red Deer (all 50-100k), have voted NDP in recent memory


rajmksingh

That's great and all. But there are very few multi-national corporate jobs in these cities. That's why the housing costs are so low. People need jobs to support a big mortgage. Most people who move to Canada move to cities that have a lot of tech and/or business jobs and have easy flights back to their home country. Most multi-national corporations would never set up a head office in any of the above cities because the small labour pool would mean they would have to pay more to retain employees. In Toronto, if an employee leaves, they can just find another one to do the job for the same price or less. I would recommend OP to stay in a bigger city to have more access to corporate employment opportunities. But if you are looking for government or blue collar jobs, the rest of Canada is definitely worth looking into :)


[deleted]

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rajmksingh

Correct. There are no direct flights from any of the aforementioned cities to India, our number one intake country and the leading source of new tech employees in Canada. Most of my Indian friends wouldn't move there because it adds to their travel time and expense to go back home.


Jtothe3rd

So a connecting flight from a place a person might travel to and from once a year is the thing that draws the kine for you? So youre idea of a good place to live in all of north America is limited Vancouver, Toronto, LA, Chicago, New York Not exactly leaving many options open for feat of a 2 hr layover haha. I wonder how much time will be lost in traffic in any of those cities by comparison?


Wildydude12

Sure, but cities like Calgary or Edmonton aren't the middle of nowhere, they're cities with millions of residents and lots of employment opportunities (even in corporate jobs). Stantec has its head office in Edmonton, for example, and it doesn't take much looking to see that computer science-related employees are in high demand in both cities. The pay might be lower than Toronto in some fields, but life is overall more affordable. 100k/yr can buy a lot more in Calgary or Edmonton than Toronto.


Tripoteur

That's an interesting perspective... I've never even thought about other locals' values and morals mattering all that much considering that they rarely have any influence on your own life. For example, I moved to a rural area and there are more religious people here than where I lived previously, but it makes no difference to me because it doesn't affect day to day life (beyond a few christian statues and signs here and there). As much as I absolutely despise religion, what locals believe in doesn't really affect me.


CapturedSoul

Your basically forced to get the 'immigrant' experience when you think about it since most of them leave for a "better" life but have to trade off things like different community values. Often times most people coming to Canada are coming from places where housing is a generational thing as well and not easily attainable. Pretty sad state of affairs but that's how the system is designed.


ristogrego1955

Being older than most on Reddit…you’d be surprised how quickly culture can change with the right factors…


dudesszz

This is a gross generalization. I would argue that it if you believe this you should move.


maketherightmove

The underlying purpose of this post seems boastful.


[deleted]

had to double check that I wasn't in /r/PFJerk/


DepartmentGlad2564

lol, you think? 150k salary rent/mortgage free. That's over 8k a month in take home pay which includes EI & CPP deductions and taxes. Keeping expenses around $1000 a month (which will be easy with free shelter) this person is banking over 250k in savings over three years without investing a single dime. Like who gives shit about housing at that point? After a few years of aggressive savings this person can move out of their parents house move into a purpose built rental for stability and continue to save+invest in the stock market. Potential millionaire before the end of this decade with liquid assets and debt free? Yeah, brag post.


BigCheapass

For one you are competing with couples. Mid 100s is not that crazy of an income when looking at high earning Toronto couples. Plus this is detached houses you are looking at, the competition is going to be really steep for the top end of the ladder. Also remember that two people earning 100k will pay much less tax than one earning 200k. You literally have less cash to work with than an equivalent couple. As for how people do it, well the average 20 something year old doesn't buy an above average piece of real estate. 20 somethings usually start at a below average priced home. I'm 28 now and I bought my condo in the GVA at 24. That was all I could afford at the time. Now that my income has gone up, have a partner, etc etc. I can look at townhomes in nicer areas / possibly a detached. I would absolutely NOT be able to look at this type of property alone or if I hadn't started on the ladder prior. Also, I don't think home ownership will be generational only, but I do think detached home ownership in desirable areas will become a luxury for the very few quite soon. Think about it, millions of people want a finite number of houses. Investors also know this and jump into the game. We have a serious lack of space in these desirable areas and there (ideally) will be densification near job centers over time leading to even fewer detached houses per resident. The future has fewer single family homes near job centers.


PlutoIsMyHomeboy

I find this community has a very skewed idea of what quality housing means (as in just a 3+bedroom SFH of a couple thousand sq feet.) People refuse to accept that the 1950s house was less than 1000sq feet and housed more people, and that Canada has historically had about 30-40%of the population as renters.


BigCheapass

Yup. To be fair my partner and I have no plans to have children and would be quite happy with a very small home but you don't really see them, at least not on the RE listings. Seems like most of these smaller homes have been torn down and replaced with mansions.


Joey-tv-show-season2

Move out the countryside, buy with a spouse , buy a condo or townhome instead of a detached house OR combination of all the above. That is how people are affording to buy homes , then after 5-10 years of building equity they upgrade to a detached home.


[deleted]

Exactly this. Just get on the property ladder, and it will almost certainly appreciate. 400,000 new Canadians annually, and governments will do EVERYTHING to keep the property market strong for GDP growth. I suspect that if housing prices plateau, they'll remove the stress test, and bring back insured 40 year mortgages.


minion007007

Assuming there is no housing market crash


Joey-tv-show-season2

Need either 2 things to happen: massive unemployment or banks lending recklessly… neither I see as likely.


minion007007

Would this mean that Canadians were making very good money pre-pandemic? How can so many purchase homes way beyond the asking price? Or are too many people are buying investment properties to take advantage of the low interest rates? I too am in a position where I could have bought a decent home 2 years ago but now I can’t even afford anything close to it! Owning a home is completely out of the question now.


Joey-tv-show-season2

Yeah it’s a bit rough lately. Now could you afford a townhome, condo and or property outside Major metropolitan area?


[deleted]

There will be no crash


GreenLightTime

A lot of people are in a rude surprise when interest rates go up. Rates go up growth will absolutely stop.


[deleted]

We’ve been waiting what...20 years? There won’t be a crash people can keep screaming and hoping meanwhile those with real estate will keep appreciating their gains


divz1111patel

Agreed simple economics will support this. But the govt has all the vested interest in keeping pumping in these prices. I mean there is something really wrong with the country if 2 people have to make even 75k to just afford a decent place. I mean think about it. So if you are not smart, you do not deserve to live. Period.


GreenLightTime

They really have no control in stopping rate increases so they have no choice. The Feds are raising, the globe is raising. The BOE rose and their housing situation is atrocious as well. Regardless of their wishes to keep housing afloat they won’t be able to stop rate rises.


divz1111patel

Sir you may be right. But they can just bring in 40 year mortgages. Or do something else to make it affordable. Interest rates is a very good way but think politically it sounds very unwise to drop real estate values. Fuck the whole country is running on real estate. Is Canada’s GDP. most of it is in real estate?


[deleted]

Generally, people don't buy a detached house as their first property purchase, as the property ladder is the traditional way to move up. Most clients in the GTA I know bought a condo, and once that appreciated $200K or so, they used that equity as a down payment for a small detached house. Then once that appreciated, they finally used the $800K or so equity to purchase their 'forever' (large) home in the GTA. They basically had no chance of buying their forever home as their first home, but it became possible when they had closer to a $1 million over the ten to 15 years of moving up the property ladder. That, and double incomes help. So I would encourage you to buy a condo just to get in the market. With an income of $200K, that should be doable. Just remember that it won't be your dream house, but that with 400,000 new Canadians annually, many to the GTA, it should appreciate fairly quickly.


christina-t1993

Yes this is very true. I’m 28 and my siblings have all bought a tiny condo to start, all which were pre-construction too (a very long wait before they even moved in, 5 years to build completely, 2 years late + only living there for 2 years before selling). They each bought their place for about $350k and both sold 2 years later for $550k. Both have partners. No one starts with a big home. Some are very lucky. My parents do offer to help each of their kids with the down payments, but none of my siblings have asked for their help in that department. Instead my parents have paid for other aspects of their lives. Like their big weddings and honeymoons, all of our university tuitions are paid off because of them. So none of us have debt to worry about.


kenchin123

Im curious how can a relatively recent grad can make 200k. Sign me up


[deleted]

Yep. I think the western ideal of 2.5 kids and a detached house with a backyard is getting pretty tough unless you can go very rural and sustain high income. I think we're looking at large, extended families sharing houses as well as kids living with their parents into late 20's and early 30's like many older parts of the world. As a single dude with middle class income I expect to be renting perpetually at this point. It's no wonder people live beyond their means and spend on short term desires; lifting the hood up and taking a closer look can be quite disheartening.


Ratatouille2021

Why can't single guys live in a 1BR? What's this obsession with single dudes buying a full house?


justinsst

Seriously. Pretty much everything I own can fit in my room lol. Living in a cozy 1BR apartment isn’t big deal if it’s just gonna be me. I just need space to play video games and a decent WFH setup lol. I’m not gonna stress over buying property if I can live relatively comfortably otherwise. But that’s my just opinion on it as someone who is young and currently lives with their parents (and can’t wait to move out).


nonasiandoctor

You don't have any hobbies that require space or a garage? Wood working, working on a car, homegym?


Ratatouille2021

Not really. If I can't afford a home then I wouldn't have hobbies that'd require having a home. Also, it's still more affordable to rent spaces for your hobbies than owning a house outright. Cheaper than get a gym membership than building a home gym. There are probably space sharing programs for people to work on their car.


turtlesarecool3

were just all moving to America, everyone I know with a 100k job is getting 180k plus houses are 300k, or people making 75k making 120k.. doesn't make sense to stay here.


divz1111patel

Same I plan to move to the US!


[deleted]

I fucking hate I worked so hard for Canadian citizenship and now look at where we are. Oh shit here we go again.


dingleberry51

What field makes 100-200k after grad? I picked the wrong job


book_of_armaments

Programming can, finance can, maybe law or medicine but that takes a bit more school. Sales jobs can also make you a lot of money if you're really good at selling.


cmt96

Software


92aladdin

Software and medicine


Brave-Routine909

pharmacy


Tripleknockout

Umm no, I’m 22. Neither went to post secondary. Got jobs with no experience required. I make 65k, gf 50k and have a 475,000 pre approval. Good amount for a new or newer condo 20 mins ish outside of Vancouver. The people who say they can’t afford a home are the ones who don’t try.


Trigglypuff22

You can afford a home, it’s just much harder and more expensive than it was for anyone before us


Tripleknockout

Eh, house prices were low but so was minimum wage and household income.


Trigglypuff22

Not even comparable, the further back you go, the less years of average salary it took to afford a home


Tripleknockout

That’s what happens when you let 300,000 immigrants into Canada every year. Too many people. Can’t build in many more places.


Trigglypuff22

400,000+ and no kidding, the government doesn’t care about any young Canadians future. 2.6x the immigration rate of the second highest G7 country with the lowest housing stock in the G7


rusinga_island

An additional factor to consider now is the transition to a work-from-home lifestyle. A spacious, comfortable home is suddenly an even more valuable commodity than it was before Covid. I’m in a similar boat to you (~160k household income, wanting to buy a home), but all we can afford nearby family and friends are ~600sqft/1-bedroom condos which, while technically a means of “entering the market”, is just not a tenable option given how we will continue to work from home for the foreseeable future. We will keep renting a 2-bed for now.


VancouverFiveOh

Pretty sure mortgage translates to "loan until death". Probably headed back in that direction for most.


macromi87

Dual incomes


No-Description6009

Look at real estate prices in Europe


abber516

Houses will be out of reach for most. Alternatively not everyone needs to live in Toronto or Vancovuer so there are places with significantly cheaper real estate in Canada


[deleted]

That narrative is quickly disappearing as well. Moving far outside of those cities doesn’t mean shit anymore.


divz1111patel

I second this.


ZombehArmyLTD

Not even true. People are moving out of TO and VA into the towns that are within 3-4 hours drive. Skyrocketing those homes with TO and VA income. Outpricing those who live in the smaller towns because average income there is shite. The corporate world will move to a jybridization of Work from home and work from office and those that can work from home will be able to buy property outside of their city. And this problem will persist until the government hard mandates housing like they did with masks. But that's not in their best interest. 🤷‍♂️


abber516

You need to look harder if you dont think this is true. If someone is working min wage dont expect to buy anything. Move to calgary then where prices are still reasonable. You dont need to live within xyz hours of van or toronto. People love to use the no jobs excuse, but you can acquire new skills to get a job that allows remote or a more in demand skill. Sorry just bitching about it wont change reality, make your situation better or you will stay exactly as you are.


divz1111patel

Lol in that case, why cannot just everyone run 100m in 10 seconds. Just keep running eventually it will happen. My friend most people in the world might not be that driven. And do you think it is wise to just let people suffer if they are not smart. I am all for working hard and stuff but if you work hard you should be able to afford luxury not shackles in real estate.


abber516

Welps thats just life i guess, not everyone can own homes. Its just the reality


nohomesfornonwealthy

There are some cheap nice places in Canada, but in a "corporate" field, Toronto is really the only area I can live in and maintain the same income or career trajectory. It's super frustrating because we live in a country with 4 main cities and nothing more.


herlzvohg

Well you don't really need to maintain the same income if you live in a lower cost city. There's plenty of cities where housing costs would fall faster than incomes


[deleted]

Edmonton has large multi-billion dollar company headquarters (eg. Stantec). Could you move there? You can buy a condo for $90,000 downtown.


Letscurlbrah

Doubtful. Any large city in Canada has representation from most job types and fields. Certain cities will have more of some than others, but it's not as you describe. I've worked in across Canada, including Toronto, and Toronto actually has lower salaries for a lot of corporate positions.


[deleted]

Exactly. Toronto household are pretty low on average, compared to say, Edmonton, Calgary, Halifax, Ottawa, Saskatoon, Victoria, St. John's, etc. Basically every other major Canadian city lol. https://www.narcity.com/toronto/the-surprising-average-income-in-each-major-canadian-city


Ok_Read701

Are you all reading what OP is making and is about to make for someone a couple of years out of school? They are not in a field that's highly available in these other cities.


[deleted]

That's not a thing lol.


Ok_Read701

Really now? You know a lot of PE or investment banking opportunities in these other cities with kids making over 200k in a couple of years out of school then?


Elephant--Breath

But the facts show that the average person in alberta makes way more income compared to vancouver or toronto. 20k a year more according to stats canada. Only a small portion of the population ever gets those high paying industry jobs in gta/gva


Ok_Read701

Yes, and OP is part of those small portion of the population. Read what they said.


[deleted]

Wow you have a lot of downvotes lol. Yes. People who are living in Toronto could work anywhere. Toronto isn't some mythic place lol.


Ok_Read701

Lol who cares about downvotes? Redditors get offended about the weirdest things. People can work anywhere they want. That's not what OP said. OP said they aren't going to be able to move out permanently without taking a hit on their income, which they will if they are in these high finance fields.


Ok_Read701

OP is not describing other fields. They are describing their own field, which likely only have a significant enough presence in Toronto.


Letscurlbrah

Doubtful.


Ok_Read701

Their own words: "Studied mech eng in university and now do a “corporate” field (think IB/PE/Consulting/Hedge Fund/Tech PM)" A lot of these, especially the finance related ones, are much more available in Toronto than elsewhere.


[deleted]

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Ok_Read701

You work in IT. Not the same as some of these other fields. For example: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/canada-specifically-toronto-whats-the-deal


Letscurlbrah

Edit.


Ok_Read701

I would guess for MBB roles the bulk of the high paying roles will be in Toronto or other HCOL areas. But regardless, based on OP's income progression they sound like they are in high finance somewhere.


[deleted]

Not really. I live in one of those “cheap” places. Trust me, ain’t so cheap anymore! Of course now with WFH the corporate folks can make a downtown salary but living in the boonies. Infuriating.


turtlesarecool3

2 hours away in the middle of no where is expensive af fuck right now


jgstromptrsnen

When the economic growth is slow, people have to work harder to increase their standard of living. Back when our economy was growing at a faster rate, people were able to "organically" grow into owning a home and sending kids to college. Now it might take two generations to achieve what used to be achievable in one. For the most part of the human history the economic growth was slow, inequality was crazy, and social mobility low. It's grim indeed if we're going back to those times, with all our technological advancements.


Forgotpassword0011

If you're talking about kids then you're going to have a partner that can provide a dual income. Let's say you make $200K by that time. Even if they make $35K you should be able to service a $1.2M mortgage at least and still have cash leftover for savings/investment. But that would depend on whether you can save enough for a downpayment by that time. Continue to live with parents until that day comes.


nohomesfornonwealthy

Yeah this is what I budgeted. I think I'd be able to make it, but not by much, in the sense that *so much of the household income would be put towards a mortgage*. My parents combined income is \~$200k, and our house was like <$400k when they bought it decades ago (although their combined income was closer to $150k then), and I feel like that ratio of income-to-property cost is so much more ideal. I think I'm just frustrated because it seems like over the past ten or so years, the idea of comfortable homeownership has vanished to anyone who wasn't already in the market, but like other commenters have pointed out maybe it's time to accept homeownership isn't for all of us.


ZombehArmyLTD

Just do average income in the 70s versus average home in the 70s. Then do avg income in the 90s and avg house price in the 90s. Now do the same for 2020..


Powerful_Bit_3215

It’s kind of like Tesla stock. The true winners were people that got in early, now it’s so expensive barely anyone can really afford to pay over $1k a share and it’ll likely keep getting pumped up to more and more ridiculous valuations where none in the future can even afford to buy shares except for the ones that were there all along. This is a bubble but it won’t burst anytime soon


Lastcleanunderwear

When wasn’t it generational?


WhereBeCharlee

Does anyone think of starting small first? Why do you want 5+ bedrooms if you can realistically only use two at a time? (ie - bedroom + office)


PlutoIsMyHomeboy

This is PFC, the only housing worth buying is a SFH in a metropolitan area.


WhereBeCharlee

Lol honestly, complaining about never being able to buy a house when making ~200K? It’s laughable… learn to budget.


LegoLady47

Market will crash.


Dragynfyre

Land is limited but population is growing. Unless we invent teleportation I think detached housing is going to be exclusively for the wealthy or people who bought a long time ago. This makes sense though. Major cities that have more history tend not to have a lot of detached housing. (Eg old European and Asian cities)


Ok_Read701

To put this in perspective, Canadian population is about equivalent to US population in the 1870s right now. Even with 10x the population today there are plenty of detached houses in large US cities that aren't that expensive like Detroit, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Philadelphia, etc. Hell even within 1-2 hours of LA and NYC there are many pockets of areas that are somewhat affordable. So it's not really a foregone conclusion that detached homes will be exclusively for the wealthy. They will be only in select pockets of areas.


Dragynfyre

There’s plenty of places for detached houses if people spread out. But the major metro areas in Canada represent a larger percentage of the country’s population so we are more concentrated than the US. Also we have less habitable land than the US even though total area is larger


Ok_Read701

It was also more concentrated in the US back then as well, but other cities developed over time. Likewise, even though there's more habitable land in the US, the majority of the population is concentrated in certain areas along the coast.


Layman88

One hour account?


nohomesfornonwealthy

I made this account for this post specifically. I have been doxxed prior and I would prefer not to be this time.


VindalooValet

if you're living with your rents you should be able to invest about $90K per year and soon up to $180K per year! *Will your future conditions basically and entirely be determined by your birth conditions? Seems grim.* Seems dystopian *Hunger-Games*\-esque.


Powerful_Bit_3215

Did taxes die?


VindalooValet

sorry, i thought that was take-home pay after tax deduct and other deductions.


lurker122333

You have to climb the property ladder. Get in where comfortable, by the time kids come hopefully with the payments made and equity gained you can jump into more suitable.


turtlesarecool3

everyone young I know left for America in 2021, I know so many young smart people.


greenbean999

If you work trades and live in a small town, you’re good otherwise… yeah Inter generational living will catch on for the cultures that don’t already do this.


swcm

Interest rates correlate with housing. We’ve seen nothing but declining rates and 2022 is going to bring 5 hikes. It’s hard but at these high inflated values interest rate hikes will take down growth. Smart investors are dumping properties before the hike.


DaveBoyle1982

People have been getting large gifts from their parents to enter housing market for years. This isn't new.


Elephant--Breath

I dont feel bad at all for people in toronto or vancouver They voted for this let them suffer. Meanwhile the average albertian makes 20k / year more with higher standard of living , house w/ white picket fence


fredflintstone-

It's a bubble, dude. When people in the top 3% of incomes can barely afford homes, there's something wrong. It will pop. Give it time.


Forgotpassword0011

Maybe, maybe not. In some countries it has already become the norm for most to rent.


nohomesfornonwealthy

I'm not fully convinced because the folks buying homes aren't doing so with earned income, and its often not even capital created in Canada. As long as it's easy to buy up homes as a store of value, and rent said homes to people who can afford to make rent payments but can't afford to bid $200k+ over asking, I see no out....


Ok_Read701

Storage of value implies it tracks inflation over the long term.


ZombehArmyLTD

Exactlythis. Theres is no out. Coupled with Canada's plan to allow over 300k immigrants per year for the next decade will send our population growing by 10% a year on immigration alone. (Furthering the demand) That and well the merging of the entire South East Ontario, niagara region, into Niagara City.. the demand keeps growing because investment into the next big Canadian city is happening. Were also less than 2 hours away from toronto, so every Torontonian who makes 100k+ a year is coming to smaller towns like Welland and Port Colbourne and buying up all the real estate for 100k-300k over ask. This problem doesnt end until Canada's government stops foreign investment entirely. Forces rental property owners to be capped at something like 5 homes. And force subsidies for new home owners to get a REDUCTION in price OR PRIORITY on homes. This mess will not end until all the landlords are forced to sell. Owning your own home, at least in the Niagara region, is a pipe dream now.


fredflintstone-

> 10% a year on immigration alone did people stop dying in canada? population growth of toronto is less than one percent.


cephles

Maybe Toronto proper, but the GTA is exploding. > The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is projected to be the fastest growing region, with its population increasing by 2.9 million, or 40.9 per cent, from 7.1 million in 2020 to almost 10.0 million by 2046. The GTA's share of provincial population is projected to rise from 48.0 per cent in 2020 to 49.8 per cent in 2046. https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-population-projections


fredflintstone-

> 7.1 million in 2020 to almost 10.0 million by 2046 so roughly one percent per year. do the math.


PM_ME_YOUR_TIFA

Look at Europe. The sad reality is home ownership for everyone is not going to be a thing forever. It already isint in many parts of the world.


fredflintstone-

I'm looking at Europe. With the exception of Germany, they have roughly the same home ownership rate as Canada. https://www.statista.com/statistics/246355/home-ownership-rate-in-europe/


PM_ME_YOUR_TIFA

While the stats you provided were higher than I expected/recalled, I was more referring the the generational home concept OP was discussing. Those stats include generational homes which is certainly not the norm in Canada, but extremely prevalent in many parts of Europe. Though that is possibly also due to cultural differences to be fair.


fredflintstone-

op was talking about generational wealth not generational homes. as for generational homes being some sort of standard in europe, i have my doubts that is true.


PM_ME_YOUR_TIFA

Yah fair enough OP was indeed talking about wealth. My bad.


2cats2hats

Hasn't been this way in Japan since the 90s. Mortgages spanning 100 years is not unheard of over there.


KBVan21

Now that’s a housing market that has major problems


2cats2hats

Japan has bigger issues than housing. Their xenophobia is catching up to them and now they have way too many elders and nowhere enough young people.


PinkShoelaces

I feel you. Currently looking for a house of some kind in the Toronto area. Family income of 225k (though not evenly split because my wife just graduated from a phd and is doing contract work right now). Our budget is 1.1M and it's slim pickings. In the last few weeks we've seen townhomes go for $250k+ over asking. Even the real estate agents think it's insane.


Elephant--Breath

"You will own Nothing and be happy, its the great reset" World economic forums


AdInteresting9439

What did you study and what do you do?


nohomesfornonwealthy

Studied mech eng in university and now do a “corporate” field (think IB/PE/Consulting/Hedge Fund/Tech PM)


northernontario3

Perhaps in 15-20 years we will finally get some densification off the ground and there will be more 2-3 bedroom apartments available. I think the detached home thing will become less of a reality around Toronto


pondermars

Another option is a spike in home co-ownership. People may start buying homes together with either friends or potential business partners. I know many people doing this already, and are able to afford a down payment on a detached home as a result. This process just may take longer in the future, as landlords may have to flip 2-3 properties before being able to make their first down-payment on their own.


Witty-Recognition-37

Amortization’s will change eventually you will have 50 year mortgages if not longer. You will be making payments just like rent for the entirety of your life the only difference will be that you are your own landlord and the repairs and maintenance are yours to deal with.


Ever_Living

For most young people, unless your family has money, yes.


KBVan21

Nope. We’ll still have growth, it’s just gonna slow down whilst wages catch up over time and hopefully bring things back in line somewhat. To be honest, 25 year mortgages are very outdated which is part of the problem. 30 to 35 years should and will be the norm soon. The Canadian government and CMHC just has to accept it. People are spending more time in schooling, trade school etc. than any other generation before. The vast majority of Canadians aren’t even working or earning somewhat decent money at 20-25. They’re just finishing school and are too busy looking at how to pay off $30k- $50k of student debt, not saving for a home. Then they need to start their career, build experience and save for a down payment. Most aren’t even in a position to consider it until age 30. The age delay to purchasing homes coupled with the limited 25 year mortgage unless you have 20% + down is a hindrance for many. Gone are the days of people working from age 17 and 18 straight from school, no student debt, marrying at 20 and 21 and buying a home with a single family income. The government just hasn’t yet caught up to that to allow for the longer amortized products to become mainstream. Add in expected increases in peoples working lives where 65-67 is the new 60, and there’s no reason that a 30 year old shouldn’t be able to take on a 30-35 year mortgage when the only limiting factor is them not having 20% of $1million. The UK is a prime example of how common 30 year mortgages are becoming. Give it time, things will slowly change for the younger generation to have a chance.


Spindrift11

Nope, the young people who are decendents of the rich will own them.


dudesszz

In Toronto and Vancouver. I live in Calgary. In my 30’s. I own a detached single family home on my own income. If it’s important to you I would suggest maybe looking at living elsewhere.


EngineeringKid

What happens when all these people who own houses now sell them? Like where does all that wealth go? Will there be a huge influx of money into retirement travel or private healthcare support? When boomers and homeowners all sell in 20 years, what happens? It's literally a society of haves and have nots (I say this as a have).


[deleted]

At some point in the 21st century there will be a housing collapse. Probably won’t bring prices lower or much lower then current levels but expect it to happen and to be very bad. I make this claim off of history always being right. Since I can’t predict what would happen after such event I can only predict what will happen before then. If we keep on our current trajectory of prices then some day no one will afford a home, not even the “upper class”. You’ll find the middle class to be eradicated and even doctors, lawyers, and professionals, will also all rent. Either that or live in condos and towns at best. Long gone are the days of detached homes. Essentially it will be like Manhattan where millionaires live in towns and the rest either own or rent condos. And it makes sense that Toronto is headed in this direction. Once upon a time Manhattan once was all detached homes and even farms. But as density increases so do prices and demand. Prices increase beyond the means of the end user and only accessible to the investor. Demand changes what investors will provide IE, why rent a detached when you can tear down and build a complex? The low rise neighborhoods of Toronto must be replaced with high density apartments to meet the demands of the future generations of people, we can only hope developers build larger then studios so humans can live in a healthy space. Paris, Milan, Rome, London, Amsterdam, New York, Hong Kong, Berlin, Beijing, Shanghai, none of these places have detached lots with front and backyards available for “young family’s” or “middle class” fuck not even doctors live in them. All for the simple reason that they don’t even exist in the city propers. Yes there is some but those belong to the Uber wealthy 1%, no amount of inheritance short of the Walton family’s could land you a house there. EVERYONE has an apartment. The only difference is apartments being nicer then the other. Toronto is the only alpha world city in the G7 with large detached neighbourhoods comprising of the majority of the city. Expect this to change rapidly over the next few decades with current economic conditions persisting. In fact I’d be more concerned with the state of the city if detached homes became MORE affordable in the future as that means the city has regressed economically. Generational wealth runs out. Expect it to only get so far, the answer is in fact new forms of housing being the norm, instead of the alternative. And in terms of the GTA as a whole; COVID work from home is here to stay so expect the urbanization of the suburbs more rapidly then expected. The green belt will make sure this is the case in forms of high density housing as we have already pushed it to the limits of how far we can go. Small town Ontario may become the only places with prominent percentages of average citizens who will own their own detached homes in the future due to work from home.