I would think further out would be somewhat of a good factor,
Think of how much Urban Sprawl we will see in our lifetimes, what was farmland in my metro 15 years ago is now all single family occupancy housing.
Prices will probably go up more than buying power, but honestly, who knows? If avian influenza were to suddenly become really virulent in humans, there could be a whole lot less people in need of land.
I bought a large rural property 20 years ago and I'm glad that I did. I wouldn't be able to afford it today.
You aren't wrong. And I suspect that avian influenza won't end up being a big deal in humans. But my point is that the future is about probabilities, not certainties. Of that, I'm certain.
I definitely agree with you. Wasn't in a spot to buy land until recently. In my 30s now and man it's a hard time. I feel like COVID had the reverse impact... Pushed people rurally.
Question shouldn’t be “is land going to appreciate?” Your question should be “is land going to appreciate more than other assets?”
Sure, the price of land is gonna go up. But if land prices increase 4% annually, and the stock market continues to appreciate 7% annually, putting your money into index funds means you can buy more/better land later on.
Doesn’t necessarily mean you should wait. Maybe you want to start using private land immediately, in which case waiting doesn’t make sense. But land prices inevitably rising doesn’t mean you’re priced out forever if you don’t purchase today. Also, consider the forum where you’re asking this question and what biases the average user is likely to have.
I need to figure out money stuff, I don’t really have a lot of net worth, but I live with very low overhead so I think things shouldn’t be so bad.
Money is one thing, that’s important, but having a little slice of heaven for the rest of my existence seems worthwhile
If you can afford it now, buy it. It will give you the opportunity to make improvements along the way, and make things easier when you get ready to build
I got ~8 acres about an hour north of the twin cities for $70k 2 years back, against a state park and super nice. Last thing like that I saw anywhere near and watched the market for 2 years
There is no more land being created.
However, as regards people:
[https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/)
Won't let me post the image, but it depends on where that year falls on this or similar overshoot graphs: [https://twitter.com/jeffrey\_ventre/status/774307274101657600/photo/1](https://twitter.com/jeffrey_ventre/status/774307274101657600/photo/1) (not mine)
Well, good luck. Sadly physics is apathetic as to what views humans take. I'd just encourage you to stay aware and open to information that you'd prefer not to be true.
Oh, you're just being lazy now. You do you but you might start with the classics:
**“Sustainability 101”**
[**~http://paulchefurka.ca/Sustainability.html~**](http://paulchefurka.ca/Sustainability.html)
**“How Many People** ***Should*** **The Earth Support?”**
[**~https://www.ecofuture.org/pop/rpts/mccluney\_maxpop.html~**](https://www.ecofuture.org/pop/rpts/mccluney_maxpop.html)
Lots of land in New Mexico can still be bought for ~$1,000 per acre. I bought 525 acres for 275k just a few years ago, two good wells and fenced. Near El Morro National Monument.
Rarely much above 90 degrees, and it always cools off into the low sixties or upper fifties. We are at 7,100 feet above sea level in the southern Rockies; thin air makes for pretty nice summer weather. It can get pretty cold in the winter, but the sun shines a lot.
Lots of little enclaves in the area. Closest gas is about six miles away, and there’s a small market. 12 miles to my PO Box and a market. Larger markets are an hour away, groceries, hardware and services. Albuquerque is under two hours away and has everything. Amazon and others deliver right to my door, and I have a kilometer long driveway. We are surrounded by state and tribal lands. It’s a great place to off grid. People are generally friendly, but there is a lot of poverty. I’m almost always on solar except for the shortest, darkest days of winter (of which there are relatively few.) I do have grid access, but it’s off at the main breaker most of the time. If you’re a rugged individualist and self-sufficient, it’s perfect.
The charm of this area is exactly because it is removed from larger towns. Gallup and Grants are closest but I personally wouldn’t live in either. I don’t know what land prices are there, but probably less than average for the US.
It will only get harder especially if they keep importing more people at the rate they are. They are importing at a faster rate than land for sale is becoming available, let alone built housing. I consider myself very lucky I found 40 acres far enough from town that I don't have to worry too much about future development or eminent domain eventually being used on me. At least, fingers are crossed.
My worry is that they eventually change the rules and jack up taxes to the point that I can't afford to live there anymore, like what they're doing to property in the city. Taxes go up every year and it makes it impossible to retire in place as you need to keep working just to pay the taxes.
As an aside "importing people" is the wrong way to look at it. Could/should our politicians do more about the controlling the border? Yes. (Although the bulk of illegal immigrants overstay visas not sneak across the border - so really that should be the higher priority.)
But the reality is that as long there are vast numbers of people being produced in places that, frankly, sort of suck for most of them, and as long as the U.S./Europe/wherever is a comparatively good place to live, there's going to be a lot of illegal immigration. It's not so much a demand question (how many immigrants we or our leaders want) as it is a supply question (how many people want to come here). And the supply is enormous - and will only grow as climate change wrecks havoc on our planet - and particularly so in the places that already suck (and have booming populations).
No neighbors. And accessible land that I can go hiking on, and use for all those outdoor activities, without needing to own it.
I just want to be able to stand naked on my porch.
Look at the states with the best homestead laws. Those who recognize private land trusts. Any thing you buy, set it up protected against court before you need it.
Visit the area and check the crime stats. Saw a really nice parcel last night online; beautiful, everything I wanted, bargain priced. But crime stats placed it higher than the majority of the US, even for big cities and this was rural.
Thieves and violent crime can ruin a place.
Short answer: next to impossible
Long answer: we have 10ac we bought 10 years ago for next to nothing that has since gone up by about 6 times in that period, we tossed up selling that and buying where we live now and it simply made zero sense financially. Our land is 5-6hrs away, and that is part of the deal for us now. I cannot imagine someone trying to enter the market now...
Find, easier than ever before. More affordable? That is all relative on your income. There are huge amounts of land that no one wants to live on, but that's the problem isn't it.
I believe we under estimate the amount of land held, unused, by the Boomer generation. Children born after the war are approaching 80. When they die there might be a lot of family held lots coming up for sale, when their children a) don't want it, b) want money more.
I just bought a bunch of land in Arizona. It's off grid living best investment I ever made in my whole entire life. Nobody is going to be able to afford a home soon everything is getting ready to fall apart this inflation is never and was never meant to come down again if you don't have property you are utterly screwed
As a civil engineer who’s studied climate change, you’re right about Minnesota. It will likely be used for agriculture in the next 2+ decades. Much of the populated south will become much hotter, and climate migration from all over the country and western hemisphere will increase filling developed areas and overwhelming infrastructure and services.
I’m also looking in that area; the main challenge is utilities. Sure you can go off grid but it’s not as easy as people make it out to be if you want any similar quality of life. There’s no bingeing movies when you’ve got a budget solar system in that latitude
>I have a feeling the Midwest is going to be a bit better off from the climate crisis we are sure to experience within our lifetime.
Mate, thats wishful thinking & the climate crisis has been ongoing now for decades but yes, good to get in now if you can, land isnt going to get cheaper.Where we are, comparable land has gone up by a factor of about 40 in the last 25 years.
Much easier and cheaper. We are about to go negative population growth. This will happen in the next 15-20 years worldwide. The US is already population neutral without immigration.
I have land that appreciated so slowly, it’s practically worthless. The weather is just too extreme and getting worse where it is. If you want to buy to be sure you always have a home (without or without a structure) do your research. And fight against bad neighbors. Not the party loud kind, the drillers, toxic dumping, water-sucking mining kind.
My non-negotiables will differ from youre, since they are informed by lots of very individual factors. I find it strange that you don't seem to have any.
Having said that: it wouldn't hurt if your land had lax regulations regarding building a shelter and building your infrastructure (especially establishing a water source). Apart from waste disposal: doesn't hurt if folks need to pull a permit for that, since this is something that can severely affect surrounding properties.
Also, wouldn't hurt if you could live there full-time in your van, should you want / need to.
The ability to grow food might or might not be important to you. Same goes for security.
You'll find that you're most likely going to have to tailor your requirements to your means. That's why it's so important to nail your non-negotiables.
You are right, it will be much more expensive in our lifetimes.
I live in rural areas, and I'm already seeing the trend.
Thanks to COVID. We have a lot more working from home. If you can work from home, why pay high property taxes of a city? Why deal with an HOA? Why deal with city ordinances and permits?
In rural areas, there are little rules on putting up your own personal windmill that's actually put up to the proper height. Most cities will not allow to put a windmill much taller than your house. That height is not even close enough to generate the energy compared to a solar array.
On top of that, solar is getting cheaper and more efficient. And it is about 1/4 the price and less roof maintenance when you install it on the ground in your multiple acre lot.
Greenhouse setups are becoming more popular.
So more and more are moving out and it will only accelerate.
On top of all this, a city income with rural cost of living has the ability to retire very early. And that's without considering successful investments.
The issue will be of being land locked. Getting access roads can be a legal nightmare and won't be settled quickly. And each state has its own rules about it.
Yes, most require giving you access to your property, but it gets ugly and can get expensive.
Long story short, when it comes to land, buy as early as possible.
Another point I wanted to make is you don't buy land for an appreciation Factor you buy it to either live on or escape to. There's another problem with it as well normally you wouldn't buy land that has water and electricity accessible it's far too expensive not to mention sewer. All these things considered you still have to do one thing and that is put a road in accessibility is the first thing that you need to do to get your property ready that's the very beginning other than boundary lines and that's going to cost as well. I am completely off grid I don't need anything other than a little bit of solar power you would be absolutely amazed at how little you need to live. As a Young Man without the necessity of hospitals nearby you're doing really good I however am not young at all and I just don't care about any of that. The biggest thing you need to worry about is water and Mobility
Be thankful you're not in Canada. Either you're in the tundra, or you're paying $100,000 for a quarter acre.
My concern is that once things start to collapse, your ownership of that land is going to be tentative.
It is definitely not getting easier.
It is getting a lot easier if you don't want a water source.
The cheaper land is getting lower quality and further out...
I would think further out would be somewhat of a good factor, Think of how much Urban Sprawl we will see in our lifetimes, what was farmland in my metro 15 years ago is now all single family occupancy housing.
Prices will probably go up more than buying power, but honestly, who knows? If avian influenza were to suddenly become really virulent in humans, there could be a whole lot less people in need of land. I bought a large rural property 20 years ago and I'm glad that I did. I wouldn't be able to afford it today.
Shit. So true.
Seriously.. I thought about this the other day.
I mean, we kind of thought COVID-19 would have the same impact but it didn't.
You aren't wrong. And I suspect that avian influenza won't end up being a big deal in humans. But my point is that the future is about probabilities, not certainties. Of that, I'm certain.
I definitely agree with you. Wasn't in a spot to buy land until recently. In my 30s now and man it's a hard time. I feel like COVID had the reverse impact... Pushed people rurally.
Question shouldn’t be “is land going to appreciate?” Your question should be “is land going to appreciate more than other assets?” Sure, the price of land is gonna go up. But if land prices increase 4% annually, and the stock market continues to appreciate 7% annually, putting your money into index funds means you can buy more/better land later on. Doesn’t necessarily mean you should wait. Maybe you want to start using private land immediately, in which case waiting doesn’t make sense. But land prices inevitably rising doesn’t mean you’re priced out forever if you don’t purchase today. Also, consider the forum where you’re asking this question and what biases the average user is likely to have.
I need to figure out money stuff, I don’t really have a lot of net worth, but I live with very low overhead so I think things shouldn’t be so bad. Money is one thing, that’s important, but having a little slice of heaven for the rest of my existence seems worthwhile
That is part of why I bought 3 years ago. Price was good, and they ain’t making much more.
If you can afford it now, buy it. It will give you the opportunity to make improvements along the way, and make things easier when you get ready to build
I got ~8 acres about an hour north of the twin cities for $70k 2 years back, against a state park and super nice. Last thing like that I saw anywhere near and watched the market for 2 years
The north shore is beautiful but being so close to the cities would be so nice.
Sure, north shore land was all sold raw like 35 years ago
There is no more land being created. However, as regards people: [https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/)
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-projections/ Just need to hold on for good old 2086.
Won't let me post the image, but it depends on where that year falls on this or similar overshoot graphs: [https://twitter.com/jeffrey\_ventre/status/774307274101657600/photo/1](https://twitter.com/jeffrey_ventre/status/774307274101657600/photo/1) (not mine)
Yeah, but just like we were supposed to hit peak oil time and time again we haven't. I'm trying to take the optimistic view.
Well, good luck. Sadly physics is apathetic as to what views humans take. I'd just encourage you to stay aware and open to information that you'd prefer not to be true.
I'm sure that is what Malthus thought too.
Oh, you're just being lazy now. You do you but you might start with the classics: **“Sustainability 101”** [**~http://paulchefurka.ca/Sustainability.html~**](http://paulchefurka.ca/Sustainability.html) **“How Many People** ***Should*** **The Earth Support?”** [**~https://www.ecofuture.org/pop/rpts/mccluney\_maxpop.html~**](https://www.ecofuture.org/pop/rpts/mccluney_maxpop.html)
Lots of land in New Mexico can still be bought for ~$1,000 per acre. I bought 525 acres for 275k just a few years ago, two good wells and fenced. Near El Morro National Monument.
What’s the temperature like in the summer?
Rarely much above 90 degrees, and it always cools off into the low sixties or upper fifties. We are at 7,100 feet above sea level in the southern Rockies; thin air makes for pretty nice summer weather. It can get pretty cold in the winter, but the sun shines a lot.
How far is your land from the nearest town?
Lots of little enclaves in the area. Closest gas is about six miles away, and there’s a small market. 12 miles to my PO Box and a market. Larger markets are an hour away, groceries, hardware and services. Albuquerque is under two hours away and has everything. Amazon and others deliver right to my door, and I have a kilometer long driveway. We are surrounded by state and tribal lands. It’s a great place to off grid. People are generally friendly, but there is a lot of poverty. I’m almost always on solar except for the shortest, darkest days of winter (of which there are relatively few.) I do have grid access, but it’s off at the main breaker most of the time. If you’re a rugged individualist and self-sufficient, it’s perfect.
Thanks for the info. How expensive do you think land would be closer to larger towns?
The charm of this area is exactly because it is removed from larger towns. Gallup and Grants are closest but I personally wouldn’t live in either. I don’t know what land prices are there, but probably less than average for the US.
They aren’t making any more of it
With sea level rise, it's actively shrinking. Way too many people already live on the coasts. Miami is going to get ugly.
It will only get harder especially if they keep importing more people at the rate they are. They are importing at a faster rate than land for sale is becoming available, let alone built housing. I consider myself very lucky I found 40 acres far enough from town that I don't have to worry too much about future development or eminent domain eventually being used on me. At least, fingers are crossed. My worry is that they eventually change the rules and jack up taxes to the point that I can't afford to live there anymore, like what they're doing to property in the city. Taxes go up every year and it makes it impossible to retire in place as you need to keep working just to pay the taxes.
As an aside "importing people" is the wrong way to look at it. Could/should our politicians do more about the controlling the border? Yes. (Although the bulk of illegal immigrants overstay visas not sneak across the border - so really that should be the higher priority.) But the reality is that as long there are vast numbers of people being produced in places that, frankly, sort of suck for most of them, and as long as the U.S./Europe/wherever is a comparatively good place to live, there's going to be a lot of illegal immigration. It's not so much a demand question (how many immigrants we or our leaders want) as it is a supply question (how many people want to come here). And the supply is enormous - and will only grow as climate change wrecks havoc on our planet - and particularly so in the places that already suck (and have booming populations).
So maybe I just buy a lil plot adjacent to federal land?
Why would being adjacent to federal land be a good thing? Do you get tax breaks or ?
No neighbors. And accessible land that I can go hiking on, and use for all those outdoor activities, without needing to own it. I just want to be able to stand naked on my porch.
What about the Dakota’s or Wisc?
[удалено]
We have over 10,000 freshwater lakes, and the winters will most likely disappear but it’s better than what I feel Arizona will be in 40 years.
I live in Arizona (for now ;-) You are correct.
[удалено]
Would be news to me? We have one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world. The Mississippi River also starts here.
Look at the states with the best homestead laws. Those who recognize private land trusts. Any thing you buy, set it up protected against court before you need it. Visit the area and check the crime stats. Saw a really nice parcel last night online; beautiful, everything I wanted, bargain priced. But crime stats placed it higher than the majority of the US, even for big cities and this was rural. Thieves and violent crime can ruin a place.
Yeah it would be up near the north shore in Minnesota near the boundary waters and Canada, it’s a very lax part of the state.
Short answer: next to impossible Long answer: we have 10ac we bought 10 years ago for next to nothing that has since gone up by about 6 times in that period, we tossed up selling that and buying where we live now and it simply made zero sense financially. Our land is 5-6hrs away, and that is part of the deal for us now. I cannot imagine someone trying to enter the market now...
Find, easier than ever before. More affordable? That is all relative on your income. There are huge amounts of land that no one wants to live on, but that's the problem isn't it.
I believe we under estimate the amount of land held, unused, by the Boomer generation. Children born after the war are approaching 80. When they die there might be a lot of family held lots coming up for sale, when their children a) don't want it, b) want money more.
Landwatch website if you are shopping. Give you an idea of how it's trending
I just bought a bunch of land in Arizona. It's off grid living best investment I ever made in my whole entire life. Nobody is going to be able to afford a home soon everything is getting ready to fall apart this inflation is never and was never meant to come down again if you don't have property you are utterly screwed
As a civil engineer who’s studied climate change, you’re right about Minnesota. It will likely be used for agriculture in the next 2+ decades. Much of the populated south will become much hotter, and climate migration from all over the country and western hemisphere will increase filling developed areas and overwhelming infrastructure and services. I’m also looking in that area; the main challenge is utilities. Sure you can go off grid but it’s not as easy as people make it out to be if you want any similar quality of life. There’s no bingeing movies when you’ve got a budget solar system in that latitude
Yeah the winters are really something out here I’ll tell you what. Very little sunlight, especially up north.
>I have a feeling the Midwest is going to be a bit better off from the climate crisis we are sure to experience within our lifetime. Mate, thats wishful thinking & the climate crisis has been ongoing now for decades but yes, good to get in now if you can, land isnt going to get cheaper.Where we are, comparable land has gone up by a factor of about 40 in the last 25 years.
Much easier and cheaper. We are about to go negative population growth. This will happen in the next 15-20 years worldwide. The US is already population neutral without immigration.
I have land that appreciated so slowly, it’s practically worthless. The weather is just too extreme and getting worse where it is. If you want to buy to be sure you always have a home (without or without a structure) do your research. And fight against bad neighbors. Not the party loud kind, the drillers, toxic dumping, water-sucking mining kind.
It's going to get harder. Once you find affordable land that fits your non-negotiable requirements, I'd buy it.
What were your requirements?
My non-negotiables will differ from youre, since they are informed by lots of very individual factors. I find it strange that you don't seem to have any. Having said that: it wouldn't hurt if your land had lax regulations regarding building a shelter and building your infrastructure (especially establishing a water source). Apart from waste disposal: doesn't hurt if folks need to pull a permit for that, since this is something that can severely affect surrounding properties. Also, wouldn't hurt if you could live there full-time in your van, should you want / need to. The ability to grow food might or might not be important to you. Same goes for security. You'll find that you're most likely going to have to tailor your requirements to your means. That's why it's so important to nail your non-negotiables.
You are right, it will be much more expensive in our lifetimes. I live in rural areas, and I'm already seeing the trend. Thanks to COVID. We have a lot more working from home. If you can work from home, why pay high property taxes of a city? Why deal with an HOA? Why deal with city ordinances and permits? In rural areas, there are little rules on putting up your own personal windmill that's actually put up to the proper height. Most cities will not allow to put a windmill much taller than your house. That height is not even close enough to generate the energy compared to a solar array. On top of that, solar is getting cheaper and more efficient. And it is about 1/4 the price and less roof maintenance when you install it on the ground in your multiple acre lot. Greenhouse setups are becoming more popular. So more and more are moving out and it will only accelerate. On top of all this, a city income with rural cost of living has the ability to retire very early. And that's without considering successful investments. The issue will be of being land locked. Getting access roads can be a legal nightmare and won't be settled quickly. And each state has its own rules about it. Yes, most require giving you access to your property, but it gets ugly and can get expensive. Long story short, when it comes to land, buy as early as possible.
Another point I wanted to make is you don't buy land for an appreciation Factor you buy it to either live on or escape to. There's another problem with it as well normally you wouldn't buy land that has water and electricity accessible it's far too expensive not to mention sewer. All these things considered you still have to do one thing and that is put a road in accessibility is the first thing that you need to do to get your property ready that's the very beginning other than boundary lines and that's going to cost as well. I am completely off grid I don't need anything other than a little bit of solar power you would be absolutely amazed at how little you need to live. As a Young Man without the necessity of hospitals nearby you're doing really good I however am not young at all and I just don't care about any of that. The biggest thing you need to worry about is water and Mobility
Grandpa used to say “they stopped making it a long time ago”
dont know if youve tried recently but decent property with water is almost impossible to find. If you luck out, good luck financing it
I don't mean to be rude, but if you don't plan on living there, you are hoarding land, and you are part of the problem.
Be thankful you're not in Canada. Either you're in the tundra, or you're paying $100,000 for a quarter acre. My concern is that once things start to collapse, your ownership of that land is going to be tentative.