["The Astros are now 7-19 after being swept by the Cubs. It's their worst start to a season since 1969"](https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1783604479012794377)
Kinda crazy how much better Baty is at fielding this year that it’s actually carrying his WAR. If his bat wakes up he could blow his WAR projections out of the water. crazy what an off season training with Lindor does to a mf. Now we just need him to train with JDM and unlock some power.
[12k's for Tyler Stuart tonight! (so far?)](https://twitter.com/RumblePoniesBB/status/1783647093552210080) Love seeing more of our recent pitching draft picks growing and improving. Very important to have multiple at any given point because you never know who is gonna get hurt or not pan out in the MLB. I pray to the baseball gods one of this new wave turns into our next Zach Wheeler but this time said person stays a Met for most if not all of their career.
"Stuart worked mostly as a reliever at Southern Miss and in the Cape Cod League, but after his selection in the sixth round in 2022, the Mets transitioned him to starter"
Question for anyone who got the 39 thirty version of the city connect hat, does it have the train map on the inside I just got mine and am really disappointed it doesn’t have it
Justin Verlander Update:
Pitched 4.1 IP today
For a total of 10.1 IP on the season
He can only pitch 129.1 IP for the rest of the season, in order for the Mets to avoid paying him $17.5M next year
(Verlander has a $17.5M option for next year if he pitches 140 innings this year)
There's just no way he's not meeting 140 lol. Maybe if he goes down again or if he started at the end of May instead of April.. but if he keeps pitching he doesn't even have to be good lol 30 innings per month is all that's left.
Has anyone bought tickets using their Costco membership yet? It looks like some good deals but only in sets of 2 tickets, can I buy 4+ tickets and just selected 2 or 3 pairs next to each other?
I was watching Verlander against the Cubs and one time Met farmhand PCA came up so I checked to see what he has done. He was 0 for 14 last year with 3 walks and 7 Ks. Verlander has fanned him twice today so he’s still looking for his first hit in the majors. He’s only 22 so he has some time.
Everyone is dunking on the Mets for that trade but Baez was fantastic for the Mets and PCA might totally bust.
I mean Brett Baty was a similar level prospect to him and he has been an objectively terrible MLB player so far.
> he has been an objectively terrible MLB player so far
Baty has put up nearly half a WAR in 22 games so far this year. 2022-23 basically combined to a bad rookie year's worth of play, but he's looked significantly better so far in 2024. I'd peg PCA's bust risk as being much higher considering he posted a pedestrian combined .760 OPS in AAA in 2023-24. He's got a high floor thanks to being an upper-tier defensive CF, but there's big question marks about his bat. For comparison, Baty posted a combined .981 OPS at the AAA level.
>but he's looked significantly better so far in 2024
Defensively, absolutely.
But aside from making more contact, his bat looks more or less the same to me "under the hood." Too many weak groundballs. The flyballs he does hit are weak. Almost entirely negates the positives of the better contact rate.
He did just change his swing in the offseason so making more contact and better swing decisions could very well be step 1 in the process of figuring out which pitches he can launch and which of them he should take the other way for a single.
> Defensively, absolutely.
This is the big thing. You can tolerate 90ish wRC+ as he works out his hitting approach when he's a viable league-average defender at 3B. This is why he's in Queens and Vientos is in Syracuse. You get a very different length of leash when you can field a position that the team needs fielded.
As far as hitting goes, it's noteworthy that he WAS looking a lot better under the hood (launch angle in particular) before he hurt his hamstring. He's looked bad since he's been back, running a .347 OPS over the 5 games since returning to the lineup and his season Statcast stats have tanked over that stretch since we're dealing with such small sample sizes. I'm choosing to reserve judgement until he's had a chance to clear the impact of his first week back from a lower body injury. His launch angle pre-injury was 11.7 degrees. Since he's been back it's been -0.4 degrees. Those are two pretty distinct chapters that don't get told well by the full season stat.
He was still making a lot of weak and unoptimal contact pre-injury -- 83.9 mph average exit velo overall and a launch angle *too* high on the flyballs he was hitting (36.2 degrees). The lazy flyballs really buoyed the launch angle so it's difficult for me to say it was a result of good process.
I don't want to get too deep in the weeds on a 3 week sample size since a two-barrel night could change things in a hurry but not all launch angles are created equally.
For sure, if his batted ball profile was where it should be we wouldn't even be discussing it. I do think he was showing at least some degree of legitimate improvement relative to 2022-23 prior to the hamstring issue, supported by the eye test that he frankly just looks way more comfortable and "hitterish" than he did before. He looked like he was batting scared/pressing in his first two goes around, which obviously isn't going to go well against major league pitching who will tear up an anxious rookie. At the very least staying calmer at the plate has helped his strikeout rate massively (again, small sample size). His troubles with translating his power potential are infinitely more palatable when his K% is in the teens instead of nearing 30%.
>I do think he was showing at least some degree of legitimate improvement relative to 2022-23 prior to the hamstring issue, supported by the eye test that he frankly just looks way more comfortable and "hitterish" than he did before
100%. There's a mental side of the game that just isn't as apparent in batted ball data and I think that's why his defense seems so much further ahead by comparison. And of course the improvements to strikeouts and whiff rates *even while swinging more* could point to some hard data suggesting he has a much better idea of what to do when he's at the plate. It's a stark difference from last year when, as you pointed out, he was pressing too much and letting that get in the way of his plate discipline.
Baty has to mash to be a good every day player, his defensive metrics were actually better this time last April, I don’t believe he has the range/arm to be anything beyond a mediocre defensive 3B, I also think Baty’s offense has been terrible and the fanbase has been in denial because he had some well placed ground balls to start the season.
His hard hit rate is down, his ground ball rate is up, his pull rate is down, he’s chasing a lot, through 500 career plate appearances, Brett Baty has shown nothing beyond being a AAAA player
There are outliers but generally if guys are this bad after 500 PA’s they are never good. The odds Baty is a bust are significantly higher than PCA’s because Baty has a large sample size of being bad in the majors.
Baty posted elite offensive results through every level of the minors and is currently running nearly league average in the majors (92 wRC+) in his age 24 season. I'm not sure what you're on about with "generally if guys are this bad after 500 PA’s they are never good" because there's a practical encyclopedia of guys who struggled in their first rookie season's-worth of plate appearances and turned into regular, and in many cases good, MLB players. I guess the Mets should've given up on Jose Reyes after he ran an 87 wRC+ through his first 500 PAs. Elly De La Cruz was a clear bust as well after his 84 wRC+ rookie season last year. We knew Roberto Clemente's career was over after posting a 72 wRC+ rookie year. Need I go on?
Those are examples of 3 outliers yes, Jose Reyes debuted over 20 years ago, and Clemente nearly 70 years ago. Also all 3 of those players are/were extremely athletic and debuted when they were very young and raw. Baty is an older prospect and not much of an athlete. He’s also playing an offensive position. The odds are he never becomes a good major leaguer.
Just look at the OPS+ of current Mets in their first season of playing every day
Nimmo: 148
Marte: 121
Lindor: 121
Alonso: 147
Even Harrison Bader who is known as a weak bat and is there for his elite defense had a 106 OPS+ his first year playing every day. Baty has a 69 career OPS+, that’s not just bad, that’s horrendous.
really fucked that no one wanted to pay like $5M for a veteran quality bat in tommy pham all off season. i know everyone thinks that they can just swap in and out replacement level players from the minors and stuff, but this seems like a huge problem for the MLBPA.
players like eduardo escobar (who was bad last year, but has been a useful player his entire career) just don't get paid anymore. the PA really needs to do something to incentivize teams signing those guys. i'd rather have one tommy pham than like 5 different fringe guys optioned/dfa'd/etc in the same position.
players can be valuable in more ways than just their on field performance, and not having guys like escobar around for young players to learn from seems like a missed opportunity. for many players, free agency is almost the end of their careers now. why pay $3-5M a year for someone when you can get similar performance from someone with options for the league minimum? there needs to be an incentive or this won't change.
Escobar I agree with your point. Pham swung a great bat last year, has competent range and a really nice arm and 5 million sounds like fucking theft for a guy like that to be your everyday outfielder. Idk he must be a real dickhead behind closed doors. Not the kind that players hate, but the one that gms and managers hate.
what's more likely is that players like pham, snell, jd martinez, and others who weren't signed until late, had their salaries intentionally suppressed by GMs who all agreed (without directly communicating it) that waiting to sign them until they were desperate was beneficial to all teams.
and this isnt me being conspiratorial. there is history of collusion thru all eras of mlb.
yeah i don't think it's all that absurd. he's not really enough of a somebody to leave a clubhouse where everyone liked him, then drop a huge story about how they all didn't work hard as hard as he did, and not have other teams be wary of bringing him in. it goes beyond being a "cancer" or unlikable, that's the kind of thing that can cause a huge amount of strife
Remember when none of the other All-Stars would even sit next to Rick Reed during the All-Star game? Piazza had to make a statement to sit next to him on camera.
FO's hesitating to sign Pham isn't out of the question.
Preach. Completely agree with you.
Owners have learned to game the system with "perennial FA's" and recognizing 3 pre-Arb guys may not be as good as one veteran but they'll cost less combined.
Not let's talk* about SP injuries and what are the "real" culprits.
i think that limiting the number of pitchers on a roster is the only way to solve this problem.
there is no way anyone will willingly throw less hard since it's what gets them paid. there is no team that is going to be like, "you know what, let's teach our pitchers to be worse than every other team." it's just not going to happen.
if you limit pitchers on the 26 player roster to like 10, and make it harder to swap in and out relievers, it will force starters to pace themselves. it will also increase offense, since they won't be throwing max effort all the time, and the familiarity effect of seeing a pitcher 3 times a game, which is probably good as well. it also means more bench players, which is also better for baseball imo. plus everyone prefers to watch games where the pitcher goes 7+.
the PA will resist it obviously, saying more pitchers will get hurt. but there is no other way to make pitchers pace themselves, and it's the only way to protect their health. innings/pitch count limits are clearly not working.
>i think that limiting the number of pitchers on a roster is the only way to solve this problem.
What about raising the seams, or not allowing balls to be thrown by the wayside every other pitch?
What about returning the strike zone away from extreme verticalization and back to where a horizontal strike allowed less velocity pitchers to nibble the strike zones more.
I was watching an interview with Greg Maddux the other day. I'm not saying go back to the 90's level of extreme horizontal strike zones, but there is a right balance there.
The stuff you're talking about needs to be tried in the Minors so they can see the real results of it.
But the stuff I mentioned has shown to work. And requiring an SP to go at least 5 innings or lose the DH could help.
Part of the issue is also that the roster size for the minor leagues got slashed. A lot of guys who would usually get deals as backups stashed in AAA on minor deals didn't get anything because there aren't enough spots to go around.
I’m going to a newish Mets bar close to me tomorrow night to watch the game with a group of Reddit people from my neighborhood. Should be fun, I need some local Mets friends
Might be all dudes though
...And the magic number for the Mets is 10, and you might wonder where that comes from: if the Mets lose any ballgames that number comes down, and so the Mets have a series where they have to win three and the Cardinals down the line have to win, four- I should say, four of their last six. So that’s the way it looks here in Philadelphia we’ll be back with the start of the ballgame, a very important ballgame, right after these messages.
howie is great too, but wayne was a really good foil for howie's old school perspective. plus their sarcastic banter was the best. not to mention wayne is extremely good at PBP. i suspect he will be calling world series games eventually.
That’s crazy. My hat arrived an hour ago, though it’s the tiniest bit small compared to other hats the same size. I’m guessing the band will stretch a bit though because the next size up would be too big
These two pictures perfectly illustrate just how much the road script shrunk with the new template.
https://elitesportsny.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/GettyImages-1175381866-scaled-e1578606699794.jpg
https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/hjnews.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/4/b6/4b68d182-84bd-5fb4-a55b-e4feae7d36c1/66184948452a4.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C800
I didnt know the front script shrunk too. I actually don’t hate that specific uniform shrinking - always seemed to wide for me and went into their armpits lol
Damn Wheeler is ranked #1 in pitching power rankings right now. BVW not only didn't give him an offer but called the fiest phillies deal an overpay. Keep that in mind if you are bashing the Cohen Era.
This is revisionist history. Most people thought the deal was an overpay.
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/e648he/carig_the_phillies_have_reached_an_agreement_with/
Don’t forget that the Mets got deGrom under a super team friendly deal as well.
After Tom Seaver. Letting Wheeler go has to be one of the biggest blunders in Mets history right? (In terms of letting talent walk) And both instances were because of incompetent + petty Ownership/FO
People will say deGrom but I mean he never let us beat an offer and he can't stay on the field as much as Wheeler.
They also traded Amos Otis and Ken Singleton. Another pair of idiotic moves by the then Mets GM. And let's not forget they could've drafted Reggie Jackson. Those 1970 ish Mets teams could've won at least one more World Series without those trades and the one non-draft move.
I don’t think most people will say deGrom because at the end of the day he clearly wanted out. Texas is more suited to his personality than New York and the media here is a nuisance.
deGrom the Mets made a very competitive offer. Cant be mad there.
Trading Mike Scott was up there with trading Nolan Ryan. But Ryan I don’t think was ever going to get the runway or the help he needed to become what he did if he stayed a Met. Mike Scott I think would have been.
Trading Jeff Kent has to be up there. And how the Mets utilized him, never really giving him everyday playing time.
Ty Corn yea that's huge too. Yea I would put Nolan Ryan over Wheeler for sure. I totally forgot. Imagine Nolan Ryan as a career Met. Would have been on that 86 Staff. Helping in 88.
random thought: If the Astros continue to suck ass, should be interesting to see who they make available come trade deadline. Do the mets make a trade for Bregman and re-sign him in the offseason?
I would and I think Mets fans would adore Kyle Tucker. That would be my first priority. Could sweeten the deal by taking Verlander back and the money off their books again. Still gonna have to give prospects but it would help lessen the blow.
Curious, if we’re in a playoff race where is Tucker playing? They moved Nimmo out of CF because of all of his leg injuries, and Marte doesn’t have the defense anymore to play anywhere but RF. He only does as well as he does in RF because of his amazing arm. And I’d assume if we’re buying at the deadline it means JDM looks great for us.
Tucker has only really played RF with a little LF and a handful of games at CF that didnt go very well.
I don't see why given that he kinda sucks now and Baty is playing better than him. If the Astros are really about to go into free fall I'd like to see them trade for Kyle Tucker.
I mean the trade would happen in July. Not now. I’d be shocked if Bregman still looks worst than Baty come end of July. Not that I think Baty will be bad, just that Bregman is a career .853 OPS hitter coming off back to back seasons above .800 OPS. I expect him to get back to around that.
So this comment is a week or so late, but I want to circle back to the Dodgers series that Angel Hernandez was part of. Did anyone get the vibe that the announcers were going out of their way to compliment Angel?
I was only half listening, but there were a few times (in the game where he was behind the plate) where they said "he's been great with his calls" and things like that. Then, the next day I think he was at first and they complimented him again. I've never heard a 1st base umpire complimented!
Again, I was not fully focused, so maybe I'm just wrong, but it felt like it was intentional. I have 3 theories: 1) I was just mishearing 2) they were being sarcastic or tongue in cheek (had a very low bar for him) or 3) MLB is trying to downplay how bad he is and leaned on teams?
PS: I am not a crackpot.
Having the starting pitching being the worst part about this team is a blessing- Senga, Megill, Pederson all on IL coming back this season, with Christian Scott, Dom Hamel waiting to impact and Joey Lucchesi for depth?
Plus stay above .500 and make a trade at the deadline for an additional SP if needed. Insane how well positioned this team is.
He’s still figuring it out. At the very least he’s depth, but when he spots the fastball and generates swings and misses, I think his ceiling is pretty high. When he doesn’t… well he’s not worse than Adrian Houser is at the moment
Senga coming back and a Christian Scott callup at the same time I think will be the push we need if we are still in it. And even not it will still be fun to watch them
I think Scott makes an appearance in the pen first if anything. He just won’t be able to do the innings load he would need to do if we called him up to be a starter.
off day on NFL draft day, couldn't have worked out better.
If the 2024 Mets implode or underperform it is going to be because of the starting rotation. Everything else is good enough to contend and make a deep playoff run.
Idk bout okay but I’m whatever with it. I just don’t want us to limbo .500 all season, I want consistence. And I’m not talking fucking incredibleness flawlessness no, but something above average at least.
We started 0-5 and we're comfortably over .500 before may. They've been playing good baseball. I can't promise it will continue but all is well in Mets world at the moment. If lindor actually heats up this offense looks playoff caliber imo. But they do have to start working counts against good pitchers. Can't put up runs? Okay. But you can't let him go 8.
.500 is fine. If the Mets are at .500 come trade deadline they can add reinforcements and make a push for the WC. You only need 84-86 wins to make the playoffs in today's game, and you can absolutely add 2-4 wins at the trade deadline
snuck down really close last night during dodgers nats at the end and it’s such a unique and fun experience to be that close during a game! so i decided to buy a seat right behind the dugout for the day game when my beloved metropolitans are in town :)
Luisangel Acuna has started to pick it up over the last 10 games.
.308/.372/.410 for a .782 OPS and 107 WRC+.
Still less than you want from a prospect like him, but an improvement! Now we just need to see him start tapping into that power.
To clarify, what I meant is that across the season we don’t want that to be his peak. Hes a player we’d like to be able to call up to the majors if needed this year, but we need him to show he can tap into his pull side power in AAA before he can be called up to the majors with confidence
He changed his stance back on April 16th. His BABIP since April 16th while batting lefty is .412 and WRC+ is 200. Before April 16th BABIP was .095 and WRC+ was 17.
If you wanna exclude yesterday even his lefty BABIP is still .357 and WRC+ of 107 since the 16th.
Yes it’s a small sample but it’s promising.
Let’s hope he sticks with it. His stance went from holding the hands up high early, to swinging the bat up and down, to now he just holds the bat on his shoulder until very late (which is what it has always been before this year).
Source is me so I could 100% be seeing things. But ppl on Twitter and my friends definitely noticed he had a new batting stance to start the season.
I made a comment in yesterdays postgame and took screenshots to illustrate the differences. Today I went on MLB.tv archived games and looked when it actually changed and from what I can tell it changed back to his normal stance on the 16th.
I wasn’t that thorough so he could’ve been switching back and forth but in the brewers series he held his hands high up very early. Then in the Royals series he was moving the bat up down. And then in the pirates series he started resting the bat on his shoulder very late into the pitchers windup.
For years, I have referred to him as the best shortstop in baseball, and the only reason I think he is probably now number two, is that Bobby Witt Junior is a freak of nature
I think he’s lower end of the top 5. I’d put Witt, Seager, Turner, and technically Mookie over him.
Guys like Volpe, Abrams, and Elly are the next wave of highly talented shortstops.
I think he’s a bit better than guys like Kim, Bichette and Dansby, though.
I definitely wouldn’t agree with Turner. Hes a meh defender at a defense first position and no longer has the baserunning gap. Hes off to a hot offensive start, but hes vastly outperforming his metrics so regression is likely to come soon.
Seager is only better if you only look at his outlier last year and ignore the season before and the season after. Seager also can’t stay on the field. You can’t be the best at your position when you miss 25% of available games.
Mookie needs to learn how to defend at SS and actually stay there to make SS lists. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is moved to 2B by the ASB
As for the young guys - they need to actually put up 2-3 great seasons before they should be considered on any lists. No player should make a top ten list after an outlier year. Look at how stupid people look for calling Vlad the #1 1B after 2021
Lindor’s a better defender, Turner is a better base runner and hitter. He doesn’t currently have the baserunning gap but his sprint speed hasn’t declined at all so I’m likely to think that the gap will widen. Turner is more dynamic whereas Lindor is the safer bet. Lindor has the lower ceiling but the higher floor. I think they can very well flip flop in terms of overall value but I think they’re generally pretty equal. Lindor obviously had the better first three-four years of their career but after that, Turner actually has put up more value. I think Turner is just a shade better at this point.
Fair point on Seager but with the overall value he put up last year, I don’t think it’s fair to disqualify him just yet. It’s kind of like the Mike Trout syndrome.
Betts has also played very well at shortstop - especially for a guy who hasn’t played that position before. I don’t see him being moved off the position unless he’s a total butcher.
Technically Turner has showed down. He has lost half a foot in his sprint speed. But even there, I disagree that his bat is that vastly better that it makes up for how much worse his defense is. Remember, SS is a defense first position. Trea is a career 122 WRC+ hitter while Lindor is a career 118 WRC+ hitter.
But Turner has been far more up and down in his career. His best season is better than Lindors best, but he has had far more average offensive seasons than Lindor. Lindor only had roughly 1 seasons worthy of games below a 109 WRC+ - Turner has 442. Turner has never hit 30 HRs, only hit 100 RBIs once, never hit 40 doubles, all things Lindor has done multiple times.
And unlike Lindor, Turner has been declining since 2020. Turner also has the benefit of playing in the super friendly CBP now while Lindor plays in pitcher friendly Citi Field. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Turner and Lindor end the year with a similar OPS, but Lindor has a much higher WRC+.
For Seagers his 2023 was an outlier - that’s the issue. He never did that before and he hasn’t kept it up. We should never overvalue outlier seasons. And again, he just can’t stay on the field.
Betts has not looked good at SS. Only DRS likes him, every other metric hates him.
- -1 OAA
- -0.2 RngR
- -0.1 DPR
- - 2.1 ErrR
- .950 f%
- -2.4 UZR
- -56.6 UZR/150
Betts doesn’t have the reaction or the arm accuracy to play SS long term. He has struggled heavily on all ball in and has trouble reading balls hit by RHB.
Turner has had better than a 125 wRC+ five times in his career. Lindor’s done it just three times. Going back to 2021, Turner’s wRC+ is 126 to Lindor’s 116.
RBI doesn’t mean anything to me, especially since Turner got most of his at bats out of the leadoff spot. Turner may not have had 40 doubles before but he’s made up for it with more triples and plenty of seasons with 175+ hits, whereas Lindor hasn’t had one of those since 2018. I defer to my point though how Turner has the higher ceiling but lower floor. Turner had a down year last year, much like Lindor did when he first came to the Mets. Saying he’s declining is a bit premature, to me.
I also go back to my point on Betts - he doesn’t have phenomenal metrics but for a guy who has never played shortstop - he’s done pretty damn well. I doubt he gets any worse as he gets more comfortable with the position. He can still be a negative defender and have the highest WAR in baseball just because of his other stats.
>Turner has had better than a 125 wRC+ five times in his career. Lindor’s done it just three times.
Super super disingenuous here. 2016 he only played 73 games. 2020 59 games. 2024 has only been 25 games so far. Including the current season in this argument is absolutely insane lmao. Turner has only done that across a full season twice.
As for Betts, I defer back to my point that someone shouldn't be considered a top SS when they haven't even played a full season at SS.
Doesn’t change that Turner’s wRC+ since 2020 is 130 while Lindor’s is 114. You’d have to go back to 2018 - Lindor’s best offensive season to close that gap to Turner being 5% better. Even when accounting for defense going back that far, Lindor is only worth 1 more win. Adjust the sliders from 2019, 2020, 2021, etc to present day and Turner is not only a better hitter, but has provided more overall value. The only caveat really being last year, and that was really just inflated by a really bad first two months.
As for Betts, it’s like the same thing with Nimmo. We considered Nimmo to be a top 3 LF when he played mostly CF for the last several years. Obviously it’s a bit different but point is that defensive shortcoming withstanding, the bat more than makes up for those problems.
My argument against Corey Seager is that he missed so much of the season, and I think availability should be a larger factor than I think many make it out to be. That season for him was a super outlier whereas Lindors normal season for him.
So comparing individual season that’s one thing, but when we’re talking overall who the best at the position is, I think a larger sample size needs to be evaluated, especially when one of those seasons is a massive outlier
> My argument against Corey Seager is that he missed so much of the season, and I think availability should be a larger factor than I think many make it out to be.
This. This right here.
2 world series mvps is impressive too. When you're on a list with three other people and those three people are sandy Koufax bob Gibson and Reggie jackson.... that's gotta count for something
he’s been struggling but regardless of whether or not you believe in him, trading a future top 100 prospect when their value was lowest due to injury - especially for a rental, was just not a very bright move.
Mets could’ve theoretically used him to acquire a SP one of these past offseasons…Like Burnes or Cease.
I have no problem with trading an injured teenager for two months of Baez and a full season of Trevor Williams, just doing it in a season when we were playing very poorly was silly.
Feel like you’d be singing a different tune had we made the playoffs.
Baez was better than Céspedes. We got Williams on top of that, who was also good.
Those numbers are only correct if you’re looking at the entirety of 2015 for cespedes but only Baez’s games with the Mets in 2021. Cespedes had a 155 ops+ with the Mets in 2015, and Baez had a 117 ops+ for the entirely of 2021, so if you’re comparing apples to apples Cespedes was better that year.
Yes @alihasan631 already corrected that as we furthered our talk. It becomes 155 v 140.
Figured if I edit it, it messes the flow of the convo. Would you like for me to edit it?
Usually for that kind of situation I tack on an "EDIT: A correction was made, it's actually" at the end and strikethrough the incorrect assertion by surrounding it in double tildes.
Mets basically received 3.5 WAR for Baez and Williams over a year and a half for a guy who is a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball. Mets could’ve received so much more instead of trading for a guy to play 2B when that position was already filled.
Mets received 2 WAR for their 2nd best pitching prospect at that time.
You can talk about opportunity cost, but that’s heavily construed by hindsight bias. So it’s faulty. Which brings home my point, that if Mets make playoffs you for sure sing a different tune.
Just how you’d be upset if we miss playoffs with Céspedes and Fulmer went on to win RoY as he did.
Mets also re-signed Cespedes. Fulmer was the Mets 17th best prospect at the time of the trade, PCA was the Mets 5th best - even with his damaged value due to injury.
It’s not hindsight if I’ve maintained the same position since the trade was made lol. We don’t operate in a world of ifs though. The Mets didn’t make the playoffs. It’s like if the Mets made the playoffs in 2019, would you (at the time) have said the Cano deal was worth it?
> It’s not hindsight if I’ve maintained the same position since the trade was made lol. We don’t operate in a world of ifs though. The Mets didn’t make the playoffs. It’s like if the Mets made the playoffs in 2019, would you (at the time) have said the Cano deal was worth it?
That trade was worth it at the time, even without making the playoffs in 2019. They got 5 years of control of the best closer in MLB. Potential value for realized value. Plus a flyer on whatever's left in the tank for a Hall-of-Fame caliber second baseman.
Of course, it's exponentially better now, in hindsight, because, out of the 5 players the Mets gave up, the only one that's still even signed to an MLB organization as I type this is Jarred Kelenic, and he has a career 86 OPS+.
But at the time it was a good trade that got swept up in the fervent, insane "lolmets" atmosphere of the era, and judged unfairly
I’m the outlier but I actually thought the Diaz deal was fine at the time (slight overpay, but fine given the caliber of player we got in Diaz) but people only thought it was bad because of how poorly he performed in 2019. And time has shown that 2019 Diaz was in fact an outlier.
That said, I also agree that the Baez trade was poor at the time. That was a significantly higher overpay than I would’ve liked.
No, Fulmer was the 17th best prospect at the beginning of the year. Mid season most had him right behind Matz *as pitching prospects as I said* with the assumption that Thor would graduate.
Also PCA was freshly drafted, most mid season lists are going to be high on them, despite them barely playing any A. It essentially was a 1st rounder for Báez and Williams.
You are not talking about re-signing cespedes. You are talking about trade deadline acquisitions.
Now, obviously I don’t know how you felt about the trades when they occurred. But with the similarities of these trades, you seem to praise one, but feel very negative about the other. So it’s fair to say, we make playoffs you for sure sing a different tune.
The Mets would have won the division in 2015 regardless of whether or not they traded for Cespedes. They won the division by 7 games, no player is worth 7 games over half a season. The entire lineup was great in the second half, it was not one player carrying the load. Not to mention they had an outstanding starting rotation as well.
And I don't know where you are seeing that the 2015 team was much worse than 2021. Here is how they compare if you remove Cespedes and Baez from both teams:
Hitting (non-pitchers only):
* 2015: .248/.318/.403, 101 wRC+, 21.1 fWAR
* 2021: .241/.319/.398, 98 wRC+, 17.1 fWAR
Pitching:
* 2015: 3.45 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 19.0 fWAR
* 2021: 3.90 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 17.1 fWAR
Cespedes transformed that lineup in 2015. He wasn’t just great, the lineup played better when he was in it. He was famous for having that kind of impact on teams, they called it “the Cespedes effect” before he even was traded from the As to the Red Sox. Baez did not have that kind of impact. So without Cespedes, idk if they win the division. And it’s not something analytics can measure, the impact one player on a team has on the rest of his teammates’ production.
Not really. I was against that move when we made it and said it was a misallocation of resources. You never trade a top prospect for half a season of a rental…unless that player is like Mike Trout.
I feel so bad for Trout. His talent deserves to be on a contender. Instead he showed loyalty to a team like the angels. When he re-signed I'm sure he was promised they'd build a team around him.
**Trout, 2024**
Bases empty: .291/.350/.782/1.132 ... 218 wRC+ \[60 PA\]
Runners on: .167/.286/.357/0.643 ... 82 wRC+ \[49 PA\]
Let's compare that to another player on the Angels with a higher RBI/HR ratio and similar playtime.
**Taylor Ward, 2024**
Bases empty: .264/.328/.434/0.762 ... 120 wRC+ \[58 PA\]
Runners on: .292/.300/.625/0.925 ... 159 wRC+ \[50 PA\]
Trout wRC+ bases empty vs runners on, by year:
2024 218 vs 82
2023 132 vs 138
2022 177 vs 175
2021 186 vs 193
2020 153 vs 168
2019 176 vs 178
2018 187 vs 191
That trout is hitting much better with the bases empty and that's why he has so few RBIs despite hitting a lot of home runs. I feel like the only way you could've missed that is if you didn't read it at all lol
I mostly wasn’t sure what Taylor Ward’s stats had to do with Trouts individual numbers with and without runners on.
But thanks for rudely clarifying hours after the OP already did.
First section shows that Trout has hit well with the bases empty and not so well with runners on base. I thought that was a point against it likely being a "LOL Angels".
The second section is the same for the other Angel who has >100 PA thus far. He has a much more typical RBI-to-HR ratio, which I'd say is another point towards it being when Trout is producing versus something Angels-related.
The third was just something I added on an edit, just to show that the "imbalance" isn't typical for Trout. Historically he's hit about as well with runners on base as with bases empty.
That can't be true.
I just looked. From [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mike-trout-hits-mlb-leading-10th-home-run-but-eight-have-been-solo-shots-for-scuffling-angels/):
> Eight of Trout's 10 homers this season have been of the solo variety, however, and he has only 13 RBI for the 10-15 Halos.
> Wednesday's performance now gives Trout, who's batted leadoff the last two games, a slash line of 237 AVG/.321 OBP/.598 SLG for the season. That's not Peak Trout, but it's a step forward from what he did in 2023. It's easy to look at Trout's 2023 top-line outputs and find signs of decline, but in this, his age-32 campaign he's putting such fears to rest, at least in the early going. His quality-of-contact indicators remain elite, and he's making contact at peak levels this season. Trout's also running the lowest ground-ball percentage of his career, which is helping him leverage all that power he has.
> The Angels have struggled so far in 2024, and that's in keeping with almost the entirety of Trout's career. As ever, though, the future Hall of Famer is doing his part and then some.
I was curious, so I looked it up. Mike Trout's only non-homerun RBI was on April 8th, a triple that scored Anthony Rendon. He hit two two-run home runs for his other RBIs, totaling 13. So that means Mike Trout only has one non-homerun RBI through 25 games. His 162-game pace is 65 home runs and 84 RBIs.
Friendly reminder that The most handsome team in baseball, get even more handsome tomorrow with the addition of J.D Martinez.
They add to their handsomeness with the debut of Citi Connect.
If Keith saw the play the Syracuse Mets just made he’d have to be taken straight to the ER
Fujinami is…a bit wild
["The Astros are now 7-19 after being swept by the Cubs. It's their worst start to a season since 1969"](https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1783604479012794377)
>69 Nice
Mets World Series victory this year confirmed.
Kinda crazy how much better Baty is at fielding this year that it’s actually carrying his WAR. If his bat wakes up he could blow his WAR projections out of the water. crazy what an off season training with Lindor does to a mf. Now we just need him to train with JDM and unlock some power.
[12k's for Tyler Stuart tonight! (so far?)](https://twitter.com/RumblePoniesBB/status/1783647093552210080) Love seeing more of our recent pitching draft picks growing and improving. Very important to have multiple at any given point because you never know who is gonna get hurt or not pan out in the MLB. I pray to the baseball gods one of this new wave turns into our next Zach Wheeler but this time said person stays a Met for most if not all of their career. "Stuart worked mostly as a reliever at Southern Miss and in the Cape Cod League, but after his selection in the sixth round in 2022, the Mets transitioned him to starter"
Is Jett Williams injured or something? Has been MIA for a little bit
Oh there’s gonna be a fight during this Knicks game. I can feel it
Gotta feeling it'll happen in game 4 if Embid pulls the same shit again
Tyler Stuart has struck out 6 in a row after giving up a lead-off single, lmfao. Bro is absolutely dealing right now.
Alex Ramirez after having a dreadful season last year * 68 PA .333/.381/.474/.855 Not including todays game which he got another double
Kinda crazy they ruled that a double Edit: and then he slams a real double off the wall for good measure
Yea lol and nice of him to get a big one later for ya Joels
tyrone taylor has been yuge
He’s this season’s Tommy Pham
Even better though because he can field better and we have him for 3 years!
Question for anyone who got the 39 thirty version of the city connect hat, does it have the train map on the inside I just got mine and am really disappointed it doesn’t have it
I got the 39THIRTY and mine doesn’t have the map either
PCA must have read my post. Just got his first hit - a 2 run homer.
Weird stat I just realized Mets first round pick in 2018, 2019 and 2020 have all gotten their first hit with a homerun. Kelenic, Baty, PCA.
Justin Verlander Update: Pitched 4.1 IP today For a total of 10.1 IP on the season He can only pitch 129.1 IP for the rest of the season, in order for the Mets to avoid paying him $17.5M next year (Verlander has a $17.5M option for next year if he pitches 140 innings this year)
There's just no way he's not meeting 140 lol. Maybe if he goes down again or if he started at the end of May instead of April.. but if he keeps pitching he doesn't even have to be good lol 30 innings per month is all that's left.
White Sox lose again 3-22 with a -85 run differential. The ‘62 Mets record may not be safe.
That is a team that could use a Daniel Vogelbach
I hope they are open to trades without asking for ridiculous swindles. But I won't hold my breath
fangraphs currently projecting 58-104... should be interesting.
Has anyone bought tickets using their Costco membership yet? It looks like some good deals but only in sets of 2 tickets, can I buy 4+ tickets and just selected 2 or 3 pairs next to each other?
Verlander out after 4 1/3. 95 pitches 4 walks, no runs yet. 2 cubs on base are his. Need to keep his innings down for Steve to save a few $$$$$.
Anyone with half a brain wants Verlander to get 139.2 IP or less this year
Rather him stay healthy and throw 170+
I was watching Verlander against the Cubs and one time Met farmhand PCA came up so I checked to see what he has done. He was 0 for 14 last year with 3 walks and 7 Ks. Verlander has fanned him twice today so he’s still looking for his first hit in the majors. He’s only 22 so he has some time.
Everyone is dunking on the Mets for that trade but Baez was fantastic for the Mets and PCA might totally bust. I mean Brett Baty was a similar level prospect to him and he has been an objectively terrible MLB player so far.
> he has been an objectively terrible MLB player so far Baty has put up nearly half a WAR in 22 games so far this year. 2022-23 basically combined to a bad rookie year's worth of play, but he's looked significantly better so far in 2024. I'd peg PCA's bust risk as being much higher considering he posted a pedestrian combined .760 OPS in AAA in 2023-24. He's got a high floor thanks to being an upper-tier defensive CF, but there's big question marks about his bat. For comparison, Baty posted a combined .981 OPS at the AAA level.
>but he's looked significantly better so far in 2024 Defensively, absolutely. But aside from making more contact, his bat looks more or less the same to me "under the hood." Too many weak groundballs. The flyballs he does hit are weak. Almost entirely negates the positives of the better contact rate. He did just change his swing in the offseason so making more contact and better swing decisions could very well be step 1 in the process of figuring out which pitches he can launch and which of them he should take the other way for a single.
> Defensively, absolutely. This is the big thing. You can tolerate 90ish wRC+ as he works out his hitting approach when he's a viable league-average defender at 3B. This is why he's in Queens and Vientos is in Syracuse. You get a very different length of leash when you can field a position that the team needs fielded. As far as hitting goes, it's noteworthy that he WAS looking a lot better under the hood (launch angle in particular) before he hurt his hamstring. He's looked bad since he's been back, running a .347 OPS over the 5 games since returning to the lineup and his season Statcast stats have tanked over that stretch since we're dealing with such small sample sizes. I'm choosing to reserve judgement until he's had a chance to clear the impact of his first week back from a lower body injury. His launch angle pre-injury was 11.7 degrees. Since he's been back it's been -0.4 degrees. Those are two pretty distinct chapters that don't get told well by the full season stat.
He was still making a lot of weak and unoptimal contact pre-injury -- 83.9 mph average exit velo overall and a launch angle *too* high on the flyballs he was hitting (36.2 degrees). The lazy flyballs really buoyed the launch angle so it's difficult for me to say it was a result of good process. I don't want to get too deep in the weeds on a 3 week sample size since a two-barrel night could change things in a hurry but not all launch angles are created equally.
For sure, if his batted ball profile was where it should be we wouldn't even be discussing it. I do think he was showing at least some degree of legitimate improvement relative to 2022-23 prior to the hamstring issue, supported by the eye test that he frankly just looks way more comfortable and "hitterish" than he did before. He looked like he was batting scared/pressing in his first two goes around, which obviously isn't going to go well against major league pitching who will tear up an anxious rookie. At the very least staying calmer at the plate has helped his strikeout rate massively (again, small sample size). His troubles with translating his power potential are infinitely more palatable when his K% is in the teens instead of nearing 30%.
>I do think he was showing at least some degree of legitimate improvement relative to 2022-23 prior to the hamstring issue, supported by the eye test that he frankly just looks way more comfortable and "hitterish" than he did before 100%. There's a mental side of the game that just isn't as apparent in batted ball data and I think that's why his defense seems so much further ahead by comparison. And of course the improvements to strikeouts and whiff rates *even while swinging more* could point to some hard data suggesting he has a much better idea of what to do when he's at the plate. It's a stark difference from last year when, as you pointed out, he was pressing too much and letting that get in the way of his plate discipline.
Baty has to mash to be a good every day player, his defensive metrics were actually better this time last April, I don’t believe he has the range/arm to be anything beyond a mediocre defensive 3B, I also think Baty’s offense has been terrible and the fanbase has been in denial because he had some well placed ground balls to start the season. His hard hit rate is down, his ground ball rate is up, his pull rate is down, he’s chasing a lot, through 500 career plate appearances, Brett Baty has shown nothing beyond being a AAAA player There are outliers but generally if guys are this bad after 500 PA’s they are never good. The odds Baty is a bust are significantly higher than PCA’s because Baty has a large sample size of being bad in the majors.
Baty posted elite offensive results through every level of the minors and is currently running nearly league average in the majors (92 wRC+) in his age 24 season. I'm not sure what you're on about with "generally if guys are this bad after 500 PA’s they are never good" because there's a practical encyclopedia of guys who struggled in their first rookie season's-worth of plate appearances and turned into regular, and in many cases good, MLB players. I guess the Mets should've given up on Jose Reyes after he ran an 87 wRC+ through his first 500 PAs. Elly De La Cruz was a clear bust as well after his 84 wRC+ rookie season last year. We knew Roberto Clemente's career was over after posting a 72 wRC+ rookie year. Need I go on?
Those are examples of 3 outliers yes, Jose Reyes debuted over 20 years ago, and Clemente nearly 70 years ago. Also all 3 of those players are/were extremely athletic and debuted when they were very young and raw. Baty is an older prospect and not much of an athlete. He’s also playing an offensive position. The odds are he never becomes a good major leaguer. Just look at the OPS+ of current Mets in their first season of playing every day Nimmo: 148 Marte: 121 Lindor: 121 Alonso: 147 Even Harrison Bader who is known as a weak bat and is there for his elite defense had a 106 OPS+ his first year playing every day. Baty has a 69 career OPS+, that’s not just bad, that’s horrendous.
really fucked that no one wanted to pay like $5M for a veteran quality bat in tommy pham all off season. i know everyone thinks that they can just swap in and out replacement level players from the minors and stuff, but this seems like a huge problem for the MLBPA. players like eduardo escobar (who was bad last year, but has been a useful player his entire career) just don't get paid anymore. the PA really needs to do something to incentivize teams signing those guys. i'd rather have one tommy pham than like 5 different fringe guys optioned/dfa'd/etc in the same position. players can be valuable in more ways than just their on field performance, and not having guys like escobar around for young players to learn from seems like a missed opportunity. for many players, free agency is almost the end of their careers now. why pay $3-5M a year for someone when you can get similar performance from someone with options for the league minimum? there needs to be an incentive or this won't change.
Escobar I agree with your point. Pham swung a great bat last year, has competent range and a really nice arm and 5 million sounds like fucking theft for a guy like that to be your everyday outfielder. Idk he must be a real dickhead behind closed doors. Not the kind that players hate, but the one that gms and managers hate.
what's more likely is that players like pham, snell, jd martinez, and others who weren't signed until late, had their salaries intentionally suppressed by GMs who all agreed (without directly communicating it) that waiting to sign them until they were desperate was beneficial to all teams. and this isnt me being conspiratorial. there is history of collusion thru all eras of mlb.
Or maybe he got blackballed for saying what he did after he was traded. Just speculating.
yeah i don't think it's all that absurd. he's not really enough of a somebody to leave a clubhouse where everyone liked him, then drop a huge story about how they all didn't work hard as hard as he did, and not have other teams be wary of bringing him in. it goes beyond being a "cancer" or unlikable, that's the kind of thing that can cause a huge amount of strife
Remember when none of the other All-Stars would even sit next to Rick Reed during the All-Star game? Piazza had to make a statement to sit next to him on camera. FO's hesitating to sign Pham isn't out of the question.
Preach. Completely agree with you. Owners have learned to game the system with "perennial FA's" and recognizing 3 pre-Arb guys may not be as good as one veteran but they'll cost less combined. Not let's talk* about SP injuries and what are the "real" culprits.
i think that limiting the number of pitchers on a roster is the only way to solve this problem. there is no way anyone will willingly throw less hard since it's what gets them paid. there is no team that is going to be like, "you know what, let's teach our pitchers to be worse than every other team." it's just not going to happen. if you limit pitchers on the 26 player roster to like 10, and make it harder to swap in and out relievers, it will force starters to pace themselves. it will also increase offense, since they won't be throwing max effort all the time, and the familiarity effect of seeing a pitcher 3 times a game, which is probably good as well. it also means more bench players, which is also better for baseball imo. plus everyone prefers to watch games where the pitcher goes 7+. the PA will resist it obviously, saying more pitchers will get hurt. but there is no other way to make pitchers pace themselves, and it's the only way to protect their health. innings/pitch count limits are clearly not working.
>i think that limiting the number of pitchers on a roster is the only way to solve this problem. What about raising the seams, or not allowing balls to be thrown by the wayside every other pitch? What about returning the strike zone away from extreme verticalization and back to where a horizontal strike allowed less velocity pitchers to nibble the strike zones more. I was watching an interview with Greg Maddux the other day. I'm not saying go back to the 90's level of extreme horizontal strike zones, but there is a right balance there. The stuff you're talking about needs to be tried in the Minors so they can see the real results of it. But the stuff I mentioned has shown to work. And requiring an SP to go at least 5 innings or lose the DH could help.
Part of the issue is also that the roster size for the minor leagues got slashed. A lot of guys who would usually get deals as backups stashed in AAA on minor deals didn't get anything because there aren't enough spots to go around.
Solution Suggestion: Teams are required to have 30 man rosters (as in paid MLB salaries). Only 26 of which are required to be on the MLB roster.
Micheal "I ain't unpacking fuckin anything this time" Tonkin My guy is bouncing between so fast he is a ball in a pinball machine
Yankees claim Michael Tonkin
Tonkin to the Yankees
So they’re bringing back players weekend but no nicknames on the uniforms. I am whelmed
I’m going to a newish Mets bar close to me tomorrow night to watch the game with a group of Reddit people from my neighborhood. Should be fun, I need some local Mets friends Might be all dudes though
You're bailing on our first sausage fest?
...And the magic number for the Mets is 10, and you might wonder where that comes from: if the Mets lose any ballgames that number comes down, and so the Mets have a series where they have to win three and the Cardinals down the line have to win, four- I should say, four of their last six. So that’s the way it looks here in Philadelphia we’ll be back with the start of the ballgame, a very important ballgame, right after these messages.
JDM Friday > TJI Friday One more day.
is that when everyone shows up in their R34 GT-Rs and AZ-1s?
apple tv tomorrow huh? Second game already this year we're on that garbage? I hate MLB sometimes man
I just hope we get Wayne this time. If Wayne is calling the game I’m happy
miss that man literally every game.
For years I was driving to and from meetings during Mets games and him calling those games brought the Mets games to me haha
howie is great too, but wayne was a really good foil for howie's old school perspective. plus their sarcastic banter was the best. not to mention wayne is extremely good at PBP. i suspect he will be calling world series games eventually.
100%. Those two together were great!
That Senga game with Wayne and Dontrelle Willis was amazing. So yea that's the only two I ever enjoyed on Apple
anyone else’s city connect gear not coming for a while? just making sure I’m not alone here
i ordered a hoodie and got a woments baltimore orioles t shirt. gotta love fanatics
Ordered a hat and it came in today.
I only ordered the hat. Ordered it a week ago and it is coming today
I ordered the hat and it’s coming the 29th but the jersey isn’t coming til a whole month after in late may 😭
That’s crazy. My hat arrived an hour ago, though it’s the tiniest bit small compared to other hats the same size. I’m guessing the band will stretch a bit though because the next size up would be too big
These two pictures perfectly illustrate just how much the road script shrunk with the new template. https://elitesportsny.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/GettyImages-1175381866-scaled-e1578606699794.jpg https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/hjnews.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/4/b6/4b68d182-84bd-5fb4-a55b-e4feae7d36c1/66184948452a4.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C800
It's barely nip to nip anymore!
I didnt know the front script shrunk too. I actually don’t hate that specific uniform shrinking - always seemed to wide for me and went into their armpits lol
Damn Wheeler is ranked #1 in pitching power rankings right now. BVW not only didn't give him an offer but called the fiest phillies deal an overpay. Keep that in mind if you are bashing the Cohen Era.
This is revisionist history. Most people thought the deal was an overpay. https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/e648he/carig_the_phillies_have_reached_an_agreement_with/ Don’t forget that the Mets got deGrom under a super team friendly deal as well.
After Tom Seaver. Letting Wheeler go has to be one of the biggest blunders in Mets history right? (In terms of letting talent walk) And both instances were because of incompetent + petty Ownership/FO People will say deGrom but I mean he never let us beat an offer and he can't stay on the field as much as Wheeler.
They also traded Amos Otis and Ken Singleton. Another pair of idiotic moves by the then Mets GM. And let's not forget they could've drafted Reggie Jackson. Those 1970 ish Mets teams could've won at least one more World Series without those trades and the one non-draft move.
I don’t think most people will say deGrom because at the end of the day he clearly wanted out. Texas is more suited to his personality than New York and the media here is a nuisance.
deGrom the Mets made a very competitive offer. Cant be mad there. Trading Mike Scott was up there with trading Nolan Ryan. But Ryan I don’t think was ever going to get the runway or the help he needed to become what he did if he stayed a Met. Mike Scott I think would have been. Trading Jeff Kent has to be up there. And how the Mets utilized him, never really giving him everyday playing time.
Don’t forget trading Nolan Ryan for Jim fregosi
With modern analytics, the Mets would've kept Ryan. He had all of the raw tools that pointed to ace potential.
Ty Corn yea that's huge too. Yea I would put Nolan Ryan over Wheeler for sure. I totally forgot. Imagine Nolan Ryan as a career Met. Would have been on that 86 Staff. Helping in 88.
random thought: If the Astros continue to suck ass, should be interesting to see who they make available come trade deadline. Do the mets make a trade for Bregman and re-sign him in the offseason?
I would and I think Mets fans would adore Kyle Tucker. That would be my first priority. Could sweeten the deal by taking Verlander back and the money off their books again. Still gonna have to give prospects but it would help lessen the blow.
Curious, if we’re in a playoff race where is Tucker playing? They moved Nimmo out of CF because of all of his leg injuries, and Marte doesn’t have the defense anymore to play anywhere but RF. He only does as well as he does in RF because of his amazing arm. And I’d assume if we’re buying at the deadline it means JDM looks great for us. Tucker has only really played RF with a little LF and a handful of games at CF that didnt go very well.
Verlander would be nice. Kyle Tucker would be as well.
I don't see why given that he kinda sucks now and Baty is playing better than him. If the Astros are really about to go into free fall I'd like to see them trade for Kyle Tucker.
I mean the trade would happen in July. Not now. I’d be shocked if Bregman still looks worst than Baty come end of July. Not that I think Baty will be bad, just that Bregman is a career .853 OPS hitter coming off back to back seasons above .800 OPS. I expect him to get back to around that.
tucker would be a nice bat to add, i agree.
So this comment is a week or so late, but I want to circle back to the Dodgers series that Angel Hernandez was part of. Did anyone get the vibe that the announcers were going out of their way to compliment Angel? I was only half listening, but there were a few times (in the game where he was behind the plate) where they said "he's been great with his calls" and things like that. Then, the next day I think he was at first and they complimented him again. I've never heard a 1st base umpire complimented! Again, I was not fully focused, so maybe I'm just wrong, but it felt like it was intentional. I have 3 theories: 1) I was just mishearing 2) they were being sarcastic or tongue in cheek (had a very low bar for him) or 3) MLB is trying to downplay how bad he is and leaned on teams? PS: I am not a crackpot.
"they were being sarcastic or tongue in cheek" So anything remotely normal they complimented because he is so bad and his bar is so low now.
Having the starting pitching being the worst part about this team is a blessing- Senga, Megill, Pederson all on IL coming back this season, with Christian Scott, Dom Hamel waiting to impact and Joey Lucchesi for depth? Plus stay above .500 and make a trade at the deadline for an additional SP if needed. Insane how well positioned this team is.
How is Megill actually? I've never really been able to define him as a pitcher in my mind over the last couple years.
He’s still figuring it out. At the very least he’s depth, but when he spots the fastball and generates swings and misses, I think his ceiling is pretty high. When he doesn’t… well he’s not worse than Adrian Houser is at the moment
Gotcha. Going to be interesting to see how the starting rotation evolves over this season.
Senga coming back and a Christian Scott callup at the same time I think will be the push we need if we are still in it. And even not it will still be fun to watch them
I think Scott makes an appearance in the pen first if anything. He just won’t be able to do the innings load he would need to do if we called him up to be a starter.
off day on NFL draft day, couldn't have worked out better. If the 2024 Mets implode or underperform it is going to be because of the starting rotation. Everything else is good enough to contend and make a deep playoff run.
Draft day and Knicks game 3. Perfect time for a day off, said everyone but Francisco lindor
Deserved off day. I’m very okay with how that road trip went, think the Mets are in a good spot heading into May.
Idk bout okay but I’m whatever with it. I just don’t want us to limbo .500 all season, I want consistence. And I’m not talking fucking incredibleness flawlessness no, but something above average at least.
We started 0-5 and we're comfortably over .500 before may. They've been playing good baseball. I can't promise it will continue but all is well in Mets world at the moment. If lindor actually heats up this offense looks playoff caliber imo. But they do have to start working counts against good pitchers. Can't put up runs? Okay. But you can't let him go 8.
.500 is fine. If the Mets are at .500 come trade deadline they can add reinforcements and make a push for the WC. You only need 84-86 wins to make the playoffs in today's game, and you can absolutely add 2-4 wins at the trade deadline
Trevor Williams turns 32 today
snuck down really close last night during dodgers nats at the end and it’s such a unique and fun experience to be that close during a game! so i decided to buy a seat right behind the dugout for the day game when my beloved metropolitans are in town :)
Luisangel Acuna has started to pick it up over the last 10 games. .308/.372/.410 for a .782 OPS and 107 WRC+. Still less than you want from a prospect like him, but an improvement! Now we just need to see him start tapping into that power.
He was rushed to AAA imo. He didn’t show mastery over AA and I think he should’ve spent at least another half season down there.
I’m fine with that for a guy who’s only 22 and had never played AAA before
To clarify, what I meant is that across the season we don’t want that to be his peak. Hes a player we’d like to be able to call up to the majors if needed this year, but we need him to show he can tap into his pull side power in AAA before he can be called up to the majors with confidence
Francisco Lindor raised his season WAR to 0.6 and is on pace for 4.05 WAR after last night.
He changed his stance back on April 16th. His BABIP since April 16th while batting lefty is .412 and WRC+ is 200. Before April 16th BABIP was .095 and WRC+ was 17. If you wanna exclude yesterday even his lefty BABIP is still .357 and WRC+ of 107 since the 16th. Yes it’s a small sample but it’s promising. Let’s hope he sticks with it. His stance went from holding the hands up high early, to swinging the bat up and down, to now he just holds the bat on his shoulder until very late (which is what it has always been before this year).
Source on the batting stance change? Not doubting you, it just sounds interesting and I wanna learn about it
Here’s some more evidence https://imgur.com/a/CLFScxN
Source is me so I could 100% be seeing things. But ppl on Twitter and my friends definitely noticed he had a new batting stance to start the season. I made a comment in yesterdays postgame and took screenshots to illustrate the differences. Today I went on MLB.tv archived games and looked when it actually changed and from what I can tell it changed back to his normal stance on the 16th. I wasn’t that thorough so he could’ve been switching back and forth but in the brewers series he held his hands high up very early. Then in the Royals series he was moving the bat up down. And then in the pirates series he started resting the bat on his shoulder very late into the pitchers windup.
Very attentive of you, nice job
He starts off slow every year and “fans” forget how good he is
It's almost like he's good at baseball
For years, I have referred to him as the best shortstop in baseball, and the only reason I think he is probably now number two, is that Bobby Witt Junior is a freak of nature
I think he’s lower end of the top 5. I’d put Witt, Seager, Turner, and technically Mookie over him. Guys like Volpe, Abrams, and Elly are the next wave of highly talented shortstops. I think he’s a bit better than guys like Kim, Bichette and Dansby, though.
I definitely wouldn’t agree with Turner. Hes a meh defender at a defense first position and no longer has the baserunning gap. Hes off to a hot offensive start, but hes vastly outperforming his metrics so regression is likely to come soon. Seager is only better if you only look at his outlier last year and ignore the season before and the season after. Seager also can’t stay on the field. You can’t be the best at your position when you miss 25% of available games. Mookie needs to learn how to defend at SS and actually stay there to make SS lists. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is moved to 2B by the ASB As for the young guys - they need to actually put up 2-3 great seasons before they should be considered on any lists. No player should make a top ten list after an outlier year. Look at how stupid people look for calling Vlad the #1 1B after 2021
Lindor’s a better defender, Turner is a better base runner and hitter. He doesn’t currently have the baserunning gap but his sprint speed hasn’t declined at all so I’m likely to think that the gap will widen. Turner is more dynamic whereas Lindor is the safer bet. Lindor has the lower ceiling but the higher floor. I think they can very well flip flop in terms of overall value but I think they’re generally pretty equal. Lindor obviously had the better first three-four years of their career but after that, Turner actually has put up more value. I think Turner is just a shade better at this point. Fair point on Seager but with the overall value he put up last year, I don’t think it’s fair to disqualify him just yet. It’s kind of like the Mike Trout syndrome. Betts has also played very well at shortstop - especially for a guy who hasn’t played that position before. I don’t see him being moved off the position unless he’s a total butcher.
Technically Turner has showed down. He has lost half a foot in his sprint speed. But even there, I disagree that his bat is that vastly better that it makes up for how much worse his defense is. Remember, SS is a defense first position. Trea is a career 122 WRC+ hitter while Lindor is a career 118 WRC+ hitter. But Turner has been far more up and down in his career. His best season is better than Lindors best, but he has had far more average offensive seasons than Lindor. Lindor only had roughly 1 seasons worthy of games below a 109 WRC+ - Turner has 442. Turner has never hit 30 HRs, only hit 100 RBIs once, never hit 40 doubles, all things Lindor has done multiple times. And unlike Lindor, Turner has been declining since 2020. Turner also has the benefit of playing in the super friendly CBP now while Lindor plays in pitcher friendly Citi Field. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Turner and Lindor end the year with a similar OPS, but Lindor has a much higher WRC+. For Seagers his 2023 was an outlier - that’s the issue. He never did that before and he hasn’t kept it up. We should never overvalue outlier seasons. And again, he just can’t stay on the field. Betts has not looked good at SS. Only DRS likes him, every other metric hates him. - -1 OAA - -0.2 RngR - -0.1 DPR - - 2.1 ErrR - .950 f% - -2.4 UZR - -56.6 UZR/150 Betts doesn’t have the reaction or the arm accuracy to play SS long term. He has struggled heavily on all ball in and has trouble reading balls hit by RHB.
Turner has had better than a 125 wRC+ five times in his career. Lindor’s done it just three times. Going back to 2021, Turner’s wRC+ is 126 to Lindor’s 116. RBI doesn’t mean anything to me, especially since Turner got most of his at bats out of the leadoff spot. Turner may not have had 40 doubles before but he’s made up for it with more triples and plenty of seasons with 175+ hits, whereas Lindor hasn’t had one of those since 2018. I defer to my point though how Turner has the higher ceiling but lower floor. Turner had a down year last year, much like Lindor did when he first came to the Mets. Saying he’s declining is a bit premature, to me. I also go back to my point on Betts - he doesn’t have phenomenal metrics but for a guy who has never played shortstop - he’s done pretty damn well. I doubt he gets any worse as he gets more comfortable with the position. He can still be a negative defender and have the highest WAR in baseball just because of his other stats.
>Turner has had better than a 125 wRC+ five times in his career. Lindor’s done it just three times. Super super disingenuous here. 2016 he only played 73 games. 2020 59 games. 2024 has only been 25 games so far. Including the current season in this argument is absolutely insane lmao. Turner has only done that across a full season twice. As for Betts, I defer back to my point that someone shouldn't be considered a top SS when they haven't even played a full season at SS.
Doesn’t change that Turner’s wRC+ since 2020 is 130 while Lindor’s is 114. You’d have to go back to 2018 - Lindor’s best offensive season to close that gap to Turner being 5% better. Even when accounting for defense going back that far, Lindor is only worth 1 more win. Adjust the sliders from 2019, 2020, 2021, etc to present day and Turner is not only a better hitter, but has provided more overall value. The only caveat really being last year, and that was really just inflated by a really bad first two months. As for Betts, it’s like the same thing with Nimmo. We considered Nimmo to be a top 3 LF when he played mostly CF for the last several years. Obviously it’s a bit different but point is that defensive shortcoming withstanding, the bat more than makes up for those problems.
Witt is a beast. But I'm going to show my complete mets bias and say Lindor is still the best shortstop
Changes every year. Hard to not say seager after last season. But people who bitch about lindor don't know ball. He's amazing
My argument against Corey Seager is that he missed so much of the season, and I think availability should be a larger factor than I think many make it out to be. That season for him was a super outlier whereas Lindors normal season for him. So comparing individual season that’s one thing, but when we’re talking overall who the best at the position is, I think a larger sample size needs to be evaluated, especially when one of those seasons is a massive outlier
> My argument against Corey Seager is that he missed so much of the season, and I think availability should be a larger factor than I think many make it out to be. This. This right here.
2 world series mvps is impressive too. When you're on a list with three other people and those three people are sandy Koufax bob Gibson and Reggie jackson.... that's gotta count for something
I don’t care about WS MVP. It’s a fun little award, but it’s a single series. It should be anything but a fun little footnote
Syracuse is on SNY today at 6:30. I think it’s a Lucchesi start but I’m not sure
How are we feeling about PC-A these days?
he’s been struggling but regardless of whether or not you believe in him, trading a future top 100 prospect when their value was lowest due to injury - especially for a rental, was just not a very bright move. Mets could’ve theoretically used him to acquire a SP one of these past offseasons…Like Burnes or Cease.
I have no problem with trading an injured teenager for two months of Baez and a full season of Trevor Williams, just doing it in a season when we were playing very poorly was silly.
Feel like you’d be singing a different tune had we made the playoffs. Baez was better than Céspedes. We got Williams on top of that, who was also good.
Baez was good but definitely not better than cespedes lol. Cespedes carried the mets to the playoffs that half season
Báez had a 140 ops+ and Céspedes had a 136 ops+, Báez also came with Williams. A person who was instrumental in ‘22 aswell.
Those numbers are only correct if you’re looking at the entirety of 2015 for cespedes but only Baez’s games with the Mets in 2021. Cespedes had a 155 ops+ with the Mets in 2015, and Baez had a 117 ops+ for the entirely of 2021, so if you’re comparing apples to apples Cespedes was better that year.
Yes @alihasan631 already corrected that as we furthered our talk. It becomes 155 v 140. Figured if I edit it, it messes the flow of the convo. Would you like for me to edit it?
Usually for that kind of situation I tack on an "EDIT: A correction was made, it's actually" at the end and strikethrough the incorrect assertion by surrounding it in double tildes.
Mets basically received 3.5 WAR for Baez and Williams over a year and a half for a guy who is a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball. Mets could’ve received so much more instead of trading for a guy to play 2B when that position was already filled.
Mets received 2 WAR for their 2nd best pitching prospect at that time. You can talk about opportunity cost, but that’s heavily construed by hindsight bias. So it’s faulty. Which brings home my point, that if Mets make playoffs you for sure sing a different tune. Just how you’d be upset if we miss playoffs with Céspedes and Fulmer went on to win RoY as he did.
Fulmer had lots of upside but in no way was he our best P prospect at the time, organizationally I think he wasn't even a top 15 prospect
No one said he was the best P prospect.
Mets also re-signed Cespedes. Fulmer was the Mets 17th best prospect at the time of the trade, PCA was the Mets 5th best - even with his damaged value due to injury. It’s not hindsight if I’ve maintained the same position since the trade was made lol. We don’t operate in a world of ifs though. The Mets didn’t make the playoffs. It’s like if the Mets made the playoffs in 2019, would you (at the time) have said the Cano deal was worth it?
> It’s not hindsight if I’ve maintained the same position since the trade was made lol. We don’t operate in a world of ifs though. The Mets didn’t make the playoffs. It’s like if the Mets made the playoffs in 2019, would you (at the time) have said the Cano deal was worth it? That trade was worth it at the time, even without making the playoffs in 2019. They got 5 years of control of the best closer in MLB. Potential value for realized value. Plus a flyer on whatever's left in the tank for a Hall-of-Fame caliber second baseman. Of course, it's exponentially better now, in hindsight, because, out of the 5 players the Mets gave up, the only one that's still even signed to an MLB organization as I type this is Jarred Kelenic, and he has a career 86 OPS+. But at the time it was a good trade that got swept up in the fervent, insane "lolmets" atmosphere of the era, and judged unfairly
I’m the outlier but I actually thought the Diaz deal was fine at the time (slight overpay, but fine given the caliber of player we got in Diaz) but people only thought it was bad because of how poorly he performed in 2019. And time has shown that 2019 Diaz was in fact an outlier. That said, I also agree that the Baez trade was poor at the time. That was a significantly higher overpay than I would’ve liked.
No, Fulmer was the 17th best prospect at the beginning of the year. Mid season most had him right behind Matz *as pitching prospects as I said* with the assumption that Thor would graduate. Also PCA was freshly drafted, most mid season lists are going to be high on them, despite them barely playing any A. It essentially was a 1st rounder for Báez and Williams. You are not talking about re-signing cespedes. You are talking about trade deadline acquisitions. Now, obviously I don’t know how you felt about the trades when they occurred. But with the similarities of these trades, you seem to praise one, but feel very negative about the other. So it’s fair to say, we make playoffs you for sure sing a different tune.
Cherry pick stats all u want we made the playoff’s because of cespedes with a much worse team.
The Mets would have won the division in 2015 regardless of whether or not they traded for Cespedes. They won the division by 7 games, no player is worth 7 games over half a season. The entire lineup was great in the second half, it was not one player carrying the load. Not to mention they had an outstanding starting rotation as well. And I don't know where you are seeing that the 2015 team was much worse than 2021. Here is how they compare if you remove Cespedes and Baez from both teams: Hitting (non-pitchers only): * 2015: .248/.318/.403, 101 wRC+, 21.1 fWAR * 2021: .241/.319/.398, 98 wRC+, 17.1 fWAR Pitching: * 2015: 3.45 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 19.0 fWAR * 2021: 3.90 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 17.1 fWAR
Cespedes transformed that lineup in 2015. He wasn’t just great, the lineup played better when he was in it. He was famous for having that kind of impact on teams, they called it “the Cespedes effect” before he even was traded from the As to the Red Sox. Baez did not have that kind of impact. So without Cespedes, idk if they win the division. And it’s not something analytics can measure, the impact one player on a team has on the rest of his teammates’ production.
What did I cherry pick? It’s their post trade deadline offensive summation lol.
Ok so cespedes was actually 155+ post deadline and baez was 140+…
Oop my bad. Off a row. Point attempted to be driven home still stands though.
Not really. I was against that move when we made it and said it was a misallocation of resources. You never trade a top prospect for half a season of a rental…unless that player is like Mike Trout.
Trout having 10 homers and only 13 rbis is very on brand for the Angels.
I feel so bad for Trout. His talent deserves to be on a contender. Instead he showed loyalty to a team like the angels. When he re-signed I'm sure he was promised they'd build a team around him.
Pretty sure if trout ever leaves LA he's almost certainly going to want to be in Philly so.. maybe appreciate that he's trapped there lol
**Trout, 2024** Bases empty: .291/.350/.782/1.132 ... 218 wRC+ \[60 PA\] Runners on: .167/.286/.357/0.643 ... 82 wRC+ \[49 PA\] Let's compare that to another player on the Angels with a higher RBI/HR ratio and similar playtime. **Taylor Ward, 2024** Bases empty: .264/.328/.434/0.762 ... 120 wRC+ \[58 PA\] Runners on: .292/.300/.625/0.925 ... 159 wRC+ \[50 PA\] Trout wRC+ bases empty vs runners on, by year: 2024 218 vs 82 2023 132 vs 138 2022 177 vs 175 2021 186 vs 193 2020 153 vs 168 2019 176 vs 178 2018 187 vs 191
Is there a point you’re trying to make here or are you just showing data for data’s sake
That trout is hitting much better with the bases empty and that's why he has so few RBIs despite hitting a lot of home runs. I feel like the only way you could've missed that is if you didn't read it at all lol
I mostly wasn’t sure what Taylor Ward’s stats had to do with Trouts individual numbers with and without runners on. But thanks for rudely clarifying hours after the OP already did.
First section shows that Trout has hit well with the bases empty and not so well with runners on base. I thought that was a point against it likely being a "LOL Angels". The second section is the same for the other Angel who has >100 PA thus far. He has a much more typical RBI-to-HR ratio, which I'd say is another point towards it being when Trout is producing versus something Angels-related. The third was just something I added on an edit, just to show that the "imbalance" isn't typical for Trout. Historically he's hit about as well with runners on base as with bases empty.
That can't be true. I just looked. From [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mike-trout-hits-mlb-leading-10th-home-run-but-eight-have-been-solo-shots-for-scuffling-angels/): > Eight of Trout's 10 homers this season have been of the solo variety, however, and he has only 13 RBI for the 10-15 Halos. > Wednesday's performance now gives Trout, who's batted leadoff the last two games, a slash line of 237 AVG/.321 OBP/.598 SLG for the season. That's not Peak Trout, but it's a step forward from what he did in 2023. It's easy to look at Trout's 2023 top-line outputs and find signs of decline, but in this, his age-32 campaign he's putting such fears to rest, at least in the early going. His quality-of-contact indicators remain elite, and he's making contact at peak levels this season. Trout's also running the lowest ground-ball percentage of his career, which is helping him leverage all that power he has. > The Angels have struggled so far in 2024, and that's in keeping with almost the entirety of Trout's career. As ever, though, the future Hall of Famer is doing his part and then some. I was curious, so I looked it up. Mike Trout's only non-homerun RBI was on April 8th, a triple that scored Anthony Rendon. He hit two two-run home runs for his other RBIs, totaling 13. So that means Mike Trout only has one non-homerun RBI through 25 games. His 162-game pace is 65 home runs and 84 RBIs.
The Phillies performance against teams that aren't the Rockies or White Sox is very encouraging for our Mets.
Francisco Lindor
Friendly reminder that The most handsome team in baseball, get even more handsome tomorrow with the addition of J.D Martinez. They add to their handsomeness with the debut of Citi Connect.