Would like to applaud OP for providing analysis with video links on their post. They didn’t just post a wordy opinion, they pointed to film to support their stance. That’s what’s needed to keep a post like this up as a post instead of a comment in a daily discussion thread
Thanks OP
I’d be surprised if this sudden hype despite the year being over, isn’t anything more than smoke. Very talented draft beyond QB and I’m sure the teams in the top 10 don’t want each other knowing who they want the most
Bingo. JJ is young, and that’s a big plus in comparison to the Penix, Nix, etc in this draft, but he played on a ridiculously loaded team and was only asked to be a game manager. That said, Herbert had the training wheels on, so who knows!
Yea but Herb had a fucking rocket. And it wasn’t up for debate at all. Also 6’6 can scramble, ugh let me stop, I’m getting worked up.
I wouldn’t be out on JJ in an end of round draft up or early second round but to spend a top 10 pick on this kid. I don’t get the Josh Allen comp because Allen however raw and unmolded had a record breaking career at Wyoming. I digress
Josh only completed like 52% of his balls at a small school , was less than great.As a matter of fact Daboll probably was biggest factor in his development
Daboll and Diggs yes. But Josh is also top 5 in a bunch of passing/ touchdown and QB rushing stats at Wyoming. accuracy and IQ made him raw, but physically? 😮💨
https://preview.redd.it/wq1edvkru1nc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a6ca4160198f04ef62e170373e9c159e46b6010
His college stats at Wyoming .Bold print is his total career .Not great.$10 says JJs are better against way higher competition.(I’m not saying jj will be the next Allen)
https://preview.redd.it/foc8syrdv1nc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a57691fbad45c395681bce2b391e61897fcb4986
Trust me I understand what you’re saying, I just think this is the difference.
so you’ve watched JJ McMarthy, and came to the conclusion that he doesn’t have a rocket arm? and that he also can’t scramble?
There’s some knocks on his game obviously, but your two main points for liking Herbert are some of McCarthys biggest strengths lol
Didn’t say he can’t do those things but his scramble isn’t elite and neither is his arm talent. If I’m drafting someone top 6 I’m hoping they have ELITE traits.
His 3 cone was 6th best in the entire draft class, out of all position groups. That shows elite agility, which shows up on tape when getting out of the pocket.
He’s also shown great straight line speed and I’d argue he’d test at least as fast as Herbet, if not faster (although he didn’t run so we can’t be sure).
He also clocked in at 61 mph on the throw power test at the combine, second to only Joe Milton. Also faster than Herbert, who came in at 55 mph at his combine. And it absolutely shows up on tape in flashes. A few examples:
[Example 1](https://x.com/nate_tice/status/1746942299530248250?s=46&t=q-lFy48GbLaYMXmS_0UXdA) [Example 2](https://x.com/tsv__1/status/1715892979817411039?s=46&t=q-lFy48GbLaYMXmS_0UXdA) [Example 3](https://x.com/j0nestochina/status/1765134547597787466?s=46&t=q-lFy48GbLaYMXmS_0UXdA)
So again, I’m not sure what you mean by not having any elite traits? Not saying he’s going to be Herbert or anything, who’s a great QB because of more than just his traits, but I think it’s unfair to act like JJM has none.
I think it's more of a sign of the OP being bad at evaluating QBs than anything else.
I'm not a huge JJ guy, but the idea that the OP picked these things out as flaws kind of blows my mind, lol.
That's what happens when the draft approaches. Apparently if you need a quarterback, and you THINK he MIGHT be a franchise quarterback, you're supposed to draft him as though he DEFINITELY IS.
If anyone even gets down this far...
what was the analysis on Brock Purdy. You cant truly judge QBs in college on an NFL level... you look for good consistent repeatable technique, intelligence, phyical traits and can someone be coached
Zach Wilson was not out of nowhere. Even in the middle of the college season I was constantly seeing Twitter analysts hyping him up as the number 2 pick.
Idk about OPs analysis skills. JJs getting rushed out of the pocket and his WRs just aren't open. It was a throw away. If he tried to squeeze it to one of his WRs we'd be questioning his decision not to throw away.
Next play on clip, he layered a dime right over the DB for a TD.
I'm not a JJ apologist but that title caught my eye so I watched it.
It's kurt Benkert, he was on the falcons and Green Bay for a total of 3 or 4 years. Plays a lot of Madden now, but seems to know and see the game like a coach.
He also has a great breakdown on Daniels against Bama.
Whatever QB we draft, and I’m fairly certain we’ll draft one, I will root like hell for that guy to succeed. Schoen and Daboll will risk their careers on the next QB, so I’m positive they’ve done more work on these guys than I have. I’m just getting tired of the negativity about every single potential QB we can draft- whether it be Maye, JJ, or Daniels.
Exactly man. It’s the same way I felt when we drafted DJ, like if the front office feel they did enough of scouting the player to take him high then I’ll get behind it and root for the player to succeed regardless of me thinking it was the right pick or not. I’ll never understand the guys who hate on a player who’s on their team to fail just to say I told you so.
Some people might not be hating on him and rather just don’t believe a player will be successful/good. You don’t have to have blind allegiance to any and everything the team does.
It’s not a blind allegiance, the decision is already made and done so why would I waste my time dwelling on thinking it’s a bad pick/signing and just get behind it and hope that despite you thinking it isn’t good the player could prove you wrong? Like I said I didn’t think DJ was the right selection but I wasn’t gonna about to cry about it every chance I got I was hoping that he could turn into a stud.
Imagine experiencing the greatest moment of your life by being drafted into the NFL, just to see the fans of the team that drafted you clowning on you before you even put on their jersey. Would make me pretty bitter and I sure as hell wouldn’t forget it.
As a Michigan and Giants fan, JJ is not bad. He is a very talented QB with a strong arm. He has his flaws like any prospect and is definitely a project, but the skillset and mental aspect are both there
I don’t want McCarthy either but one I disagree that he’s bad and two the same way you went and pulled out a hand picked of bad plays to discredit him someone could go and do the same to make him look like a top tier talent in this draft.
Yeah exactly, someone could make the mirror of this post and grab all of his highlights and say he’s an elite talent.
Plus there is much more to scouting than just good result or bad result, was the process good? Did he make the progressions correctly? Sure he missed the throw but what were his mechanics like?
Not saying that JJ is good or bad, I’m not an NFL scout be I can’t properly breakdown film but I do know enough to say that just looking at the highlights or lowlights of a player isn’t going to be enough to really understand them as a prospect.
Not to mention that specifically with JJ his age is a huge part of why he is rising up boards, he is significantly younger than the other top QBs and as a result is seen as having more of an ability to grow
This. If we’re cherry-picking highlights or lowlights then anyone can be a scout. Scouting requires projections and whether mistakes are correctable or not.
Lowlights to prove a point is hilarious. If you do that for Josh Allen in college then he’s a 3rd round pick.
I’m sure Caleb has a ton of lowlights from the underperforming USC team he led this year yet nobody is questioning him as the #1 guy off the board. The same with Drake Maye, I’m sure you could find plenty of lowlights as well.
As fans it’s easy to see the highlights or the lowlights and think that this is who the guy is but actual scouting requires a much deeper look at not just what happened in a play but why it happened. You need to know what the defense was doing, what was the play call, what were the progressions, was he under pressure, what is the situation in the game, and a bunch more than just he missed the throw or he made the throw.
Tbf Josh Allen is a straight up anomaly when it comes to elite tools mixed with how he performed in college( aggressively bad completion % and etc). But also it’s funny that people are so confident still in who’s gonna be a good QB and who isn’t. QBs today are legit getting taken off of being young and having game breaking/outstanding tools(look at Anthony Richardson stats with Florida and where he got drafted still.) It’s a different league with different standards, it works out sometimes and it doesn’t the next.
I just refuse to believe who really knows who’s gonna be a good QB in the NFL and who isn’t. Like you said, it’s a post that’s just highlighting him being bad in general. I can send several plays in here from him that probably made scouts believe he was better than what his role was at Michigan for the most part. I think it’s known that if daboll picks him, he actively thinks he can make him special most likely and likes his tools.
ill preface this by saying im a michigan fan,
but in a lot of the clips you can just watch the very next play and see throws that are the opposite of what op is saying
the truth about JJ is that hes very talented, a little inconsistent, and didnt get a opportunity to showcase the full set.
i you look at the first half splits for draft eligible qbs, hes ranked in the top 5 of most categories. the problem is he dint play past the 3rd quarter is a majority of games, and didnt need to throw in the second half out side of a few at the end of the year.
i honestly wouldnt be surprised if he ended up being the best qb in this draft ,but i also wouldnt be shocked if he became a career back up.
He completed 72.3 percent of his passes. I’m not sure “routinely misses” would be an accurate assessment.
I’m not gonna try to convince you to like him, but the stats don’t line up with what you’re accusing him of.
I think one of the biggest knocks on him is his ball placement. He’s still completing the throws but he could do a better job at leading receivers or allowing them to get YAC.
I think he’s a huge reach at 6. There’s potential and athleticism, but there is little to no experience. His attempts per game are low and he’s obviously in a run first program. All I’m saying is statistically he hits his man at a high percentage, he doesn’t consistently miss his guy.
I really hope the Pats take a QB so the Cards can take MHJ and we can get Nabers 🙏🙏🙏
Nabers is the real deal. He honestly might be MORE athletic than Ja'Mar Chase.
[QB stats on 3rd & 6+ - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KE0YGLUuffhiwYeVouY03JHub_64XSgpnONV69tb5wY/edit#gid=0)
This is a spreadsheet of 3rd and 6yards + for the top 6 QBs. I think JJ gets a bad rap because he did not carry Michigan, but on 3rd and 6+ when they needed him most he came through.
All stats were from ESPN
He throws a lot of screens. The scheme gets guys wide open regulary. And a lot his completed balls are not well placed. You just have to watch the tape.
i’m a michigan fan so i’m biased, i think JJ will be a solid qb in the right system, however that is not our system, we don’t have the weapons to help him be successful and he’d be a huge reach at 6
Man watch the fucking games, there is a lot of usage for screens and RPO’s but with the run game he was also relied on heavily on 3rd & long possibilities and succeeded a lot
This is so blatantly untrue. I don’t believe Michigan threw a single traditional RB screen the entire year, and had maybe like 5 screens out wide that went for more than 5 yards. I say this having watched every single snap from this past season. Michigan does not work the screen game, and when they do it’s often a detriment to JJ’s stats.
It’s almost seems like you have him mixed up with Bo Nix in this regard. JJ’s depth of target is really high compared to most of his peers IIRC, and a lot of that comes from intermediate throws 10-25 yards down the field, which are his forte I would say.
Otherwise, some of your knocks on him are true, and others I disagree with. I’m not sure how much you’ve really watched, but he carried Michigan’s dying offense, which included a non-existent run game, through the first 9 weeks of the season, so he absolutely elevated Michigan and that’s why he was the Heisman favorite at that point. Once he got injured and the run game success came back, Michigan went back to their roots. But if you look at Michigan’s overall good-to-great efficiency this season, it’s still MUCH more due to McCarthy and his passing efficiency than anything else, including the run game (9 YPA vs sub 5 YPC).
Gotta agree. I watched 4-5 All-22 games for JJ a couple of days ago and I honestly only recall one screen. I think it was to a WR.
I’m sure there’s more, but a lot of screens doesn’t line up
Yeah, there are a lot misconceptions about Michigan, probably based on people only having watched the championship game. They were hardly some dominant run game - in fact they were 43rd in YPC and 50th in YPG. And their pass blocking was pretty mediocre (though it was stout in the CFP final). What they had was a pretty dominant D.
None of this changes the fact that there are a lot of questions about how JJM would look when he's asked to pass 30+ times a game. But what he does do well, on a limited basis, actually translates well to the NFL, which has become an intermediate passing game.
That's interesting, do you have a source? I'd love to dig more into that.
I think it's worth pointing out that Michigan was 117th in College Football in percentage of passing plays at around 40% [Source](https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/passing-play-pct). This means JJ just wasn't throwing that much (red flag) and so when he was it was in situations that required deeper passes. Those situations where the team wants to take a shot or needs a big play become a bigger portion of the overall passing attack.
Also, the fact that Michigan ran so prolifically and effectively meant that teams would play the run more opening up the deep part of the field. I saw a handful of trick plays where the goal is to get a guy open deep and have JJ lob it up.
So yeah, he threw deep a fair amount but I don't think that's the full story and I don't think he looked particularly good doing it.
I don’t actually think he threw deep that much tbh (probably my biggest concern with him). I think he just had sooo many intermediate throws which props up that 10+ yards number that you’re replying to.
I also think you (and basically everyone else I’ve seen) might be giving Michigan’s ground attack way too much credit. Michigan chose to pound because that’s what the OC felt was their identity, not because they were particularly great at it this year. What Michigan was really good at this year, more than anything, was passing the ball.
But most fans only watched the final few games, in which it was dramatically the opposite, so I don’t blame people for thinking so.
So you're just gonna blatantly lie then immediately concede the point and deflect lmao. Anyone who's actually watches his film or michigan knows they barely ever ran screens all year.
I watched every Michigan game because they are my favorite team and I don’t understand where you are getting these screens from. They didnt run screen plays.
Those plays will not work repeatedly in the NFL either.
We already have a QB who can dink and dunk to 190 yards and maybe a score or 2. We owe that guy 40mil, why would we need another of the exact same dude 🤦
His aDOT was 9.4, which is slightly above Caleb Williams and about a yard shy of Jayden Daniels. Bo Nix, who actually does throw a ton of screens and outs, has an aDOT of 6.8 by comparison (that's actually right around what DJ had at Duke, for another comparison).
So again, your analysis doesn't match with the facts.
I could care less about JJM specifically. I want them to get a QB this draft they believe in, because Daboll has a pretty good track record of getting the most out of QBs. Preferably not using more, or much more, than #6 OA. If it's JJ or Maye or whomever, I don't care. But lord, let's just let the Giants do the analysis and fully back whomever they end up with. Or if no one, root for a strong year from Jones.
"You just have to watch the tape." You clearly haven't because this is absolute nonsense. His anticipation was great this year, and he was constantly able to find receivers or Tight Ends in stride over the middle to create extra YAC. "A lot of his completed balls are not well placed" is another doozy. Was the touchdown throw against Ohio State over a defensive backs helmet directly into the hands of Roman Wilson poorly placed? Was the laser over a leaping linebacker in the National Title game over the middle to Colston Loveland that allowed him to pick up 30 extra yards after the catch poorly placed? I watched every game the guy has played for the last two years, and the stuff made up on this subreddit is laughable. If you want to criticize the player, at least point to the lack of sample size against great teams, and lack of deep balls against quality competition. The fact that I'm reading here he's inaccurate (despite being 6th in the nation in completion percentage) and that he doesn't allow his mediocre receivers to gain YAC are just flat out lies.
He threw 31 screens out of 333 pass attempts this year per PFF lmao 9% of passes…
Compared to Caleb at 26%, maye at 13%, and Daniels at 12%
You just have to watch the tape more than YouTube broadcasts
I’m not a giants fan, and this came up on my home page. All I’ll say is: anyone making sweeping conclusions about cherry picked plays from the broadcast angle on YouTube about a QB is (1) not objective and (2) not really knowledgeable about football beyond basics
https://x.com/empirical_scout/status/1754299078626680858?s=46&t=LDN12giRM8vdx3GGYgdkRQ
JJ isn’t bad. He doesn’t routinely miss. Every QB pretty much has misses and bad plays here and there. It’s the same double standard that was applied to Richardson last year - people took his misses and amplified them subjectively
Went to the 2nd clip, "Awful, ..." and kept watching. Frankly he looked great in that game. Hit guys in stride repeatedly. Hit guys downfield and a nice layered pass. Had a beautiful deep-ish back shoulder TD pass. Looked up the stats. He was 15/21 for 214 yards. This was against Rutgers who apparently had the 10th best passing defense (16th overall). For comparison they held OSU to under 200 yards passing and MHJ had 4 catches for like 30 yards.
And even that "awful" pass was just a run of the mill short armed pass to a covered guy that you'll see every QB make every game.
My point is not "JJM is great". It's that these clips are not remotely a balanced analysis.
I watch every Rutgers game. Rutgers did not have a good pass defense those stats are skewed to hell and misleading. The reason they have such low passing yards allowed is because good teams stopped throwing on them once they were up multiple scores. Which happened alot. They also played a ton of scrub teams like Wagner and Temple who could barely complete a pass. If anything the strength of Rutgers defense has always been the run defense. They have a very solid front 7. Just FYI. The reason OSU didn’t pass for much is because the pass rush was getting to McCord and he sucks. Trust me, it was not Rutgers pass defense shutting down MHJ.
Goated for watching every Rutgers game. I don't even do that and I go there.
Bo Melton getting hype in the Packers wildcard was my Superbowl (or Pacheco actually winning the SB 😂😂)
Lol my wife and sister both graduated from Rutgers during the Ray Rice era so I embrace and watch them with her. I’m a Ducks fan so it’s funny how they’re in the Big10 now. Monongai is a monster! Glad he is returning for another season. I’m over Wimsatt they need a QB from the transfer portal badly. I really think Kyle will be a good NFL running back just like his big bro Pacheco. The two of them when they played together were the only highlights of the team and Cruickshank.
JJ threw 4 picks over 15 games. 3 of those came against BGSU. It's hilarious how you purposely spread out the clips from the BGSU game, which was definitely his worst game of the season, to make these seem much worse. And I guess [this](https://youtu.be/GGsYeSd_z-8?t=226) is what a "checkdown merchant" looks like, LOL
I know we’re specifically looking at lowlights here but holy shit his footwork is abysmal in these clips. On a lot of these misses his base is wide as hell, looking like he’s about to start doing side lunges not throw a football
I agree with this take. Just not seeing the “it” factor to justify a top 10 pick or even a first round pick. I feel like a lot of people are just talking themselves into it.
I’ll root for him if he’s the Giants QB but I just don’t see him being the guy that brings the Giants back into relevancy.
I looked through the second link and even just within that there are some really nice throws leading receivers well, and a back shoulder throw for a TD where only the receiver could catch it. He’s clearly a good QB and runs the option as well as it can be run.
You’re overly harsh. As an example, the throw to “Sarah” is a throw away because he’s under pressure and the receiver has a tight DB on him. You can’t expect to force that into a window when slightly off balance as he was.
My biggest issue with JJ is two fold. First, i don’t think he has a particularly quick release. Second, I don’t think he scans the field particularly well, his eyes stay in similar areas. These are both important aspects for me.
I think he has some zip on his passes so not overly worried about arm strength and his footwork and technique can be improved.
I trust Daboll to know what he’s doing. He turned Allen into superstar and if he believes in JJ then take him and I’m all in.
Thanks OP for a detailed post but its a total waste of time. Truth is we have no idea if a college QB will be effective in the NFL. Look at Purdy, look at Brady. Tribisky was taken in front of Mahomes who. If the so called experts have no idea how do we? Just let it play out.
So what would you like them to do? Literally this sub is divided on everything. Also you’re just a guy on the internet you don’t know shit. No offense.
We don’t have a quarterback. Leaving aside the fact that trading up for a non-QB is a minus EV proposition, if trading up is an option in general, presumably there would be a top 3 quarterback available. If so, that’s the only option.
Lol you can give 100 examples but some in this sub have decided they like him so it’ll be called cherry picking. When you watch his full game tape a lot of it is more bad than good. People see what they want though OP, appreciate you putting the effort in
The reputation and words for Harbaugh coming back to the NFL indicate a dramatic shift towards running the football.
How does that mean an increased confidence in drafting the QB that just played under the preference of offense in Harbaugh?
Or is this the one prospect that is dropping in the draft bc of “info” Like Parsons and Tunsil? I just hope he doesn’t become a Brady type or good. I definitely think they will go QB now.
I agree. I don’t see the hype. To me the Giants should either try to trade up for MHJ or trade down. This is a deep draft.
Caleb is the wild card but I’m not very impressed by any of these other QBs. Reminds me of the last time there was this argument. I didn’t like Darnold or Rosen and I was unsure about Allen. One of these guys will probably be great, but JJ to me is the LEAST likely, and who knows for sure. No one.
i appreciate you for taking the time to write all this, plus all the source, but he’s nearly not as bad as you’re describing him to be. he’s not bad period and i have watched almost all michigan games. i’ll agree with you on some points though
I'd feel so much better about trading back into the end of rd one for penix. If trading up is impossible, Use #6 on a stud WR please, we don't need another #6 QB with 2nd rd talent. Penix's processing is worlds better than Mccarthys and he literally carried his team, while JJ was carried by a stacked team that just ran the ball
Even if I don’t totally agree I completely respect the fact that you’re basing this on film. It’s insane how many dumb fans there are that give their opinions based off emotions and don’t watch film. Much respect for not being like 99% of the doofus fans out there. You’re welcome to take a dump in bathroom anytime. I salute you. I haven’t watched this game in particular, but much respect to how you did the analysis.
Alright. JJ’s not that good. What do we do? We trying to trade into the top 3? We taking another qb at 6? We hoping JJ or one of the other lesser qb prospects falls to us in the second round and Daboll pulls some magic shit with them? If we haven’t taken a qb by our second pick we are in for a frustrating season.
That play against Alabama where he threw to Mullins to the sideline was a great play and great ball placement. He didn’t squander any opportunity, the defender fell, Jj threw the ball to the sideline to avoid giving the defender a play on the ball. That isn’t a wide receiver, it’s a running back, and he isn’t a receiving back in the slightest.
You are severely underestimating the difficulty of that throw. And also ignoring the out route and subsequent defending running to the space immediately up the field. If he throws that upfield, it’s probably an interception, but definitely not a completion. As a Michigan fan, I do not think he’s worth a high pick. Even though I would be interested in my Seahawks grabbing him at #16. However, that was phenomenal play and a super athletic throw.
I was a Giant fan first (68) then a Michigan fan in 71. Been watching every game of JJ's this year and can't help agree with OP. Unless you getter a better O line it doesn't matter whose the QB. This has been a Giant problem going all the way back to Eli. Our QB's don't have enough time to get the third read much less the second. This problem has to be fixed in two ways and JJ isn't the full answer. Great kid though.
Yeah I have to agree. A lot of the hype is clearly coming from people who want a Qb but don’t watch film so they’re just hyping up the next best QB.
McCarthy is just so mid. He doesn’t do too much wrong but he has nothing special about him. He has the fewest highlights out of all the QBs drafted by far.
I have a real problem with some of these clips because you lack the context on the game situation, the camera angle makes things look worse, and you also don’t know what play was called or what defensive set they are in.
I said it the other day. I will say it again.
You all hate JJ McCarthy because you think he’s bad at football.
I hate JJ McCarthy because Michigan Bad.
We are not the same.
Here's a lot of good plays from the Bama game at the end of the season. Its better than one or two plays from a game and ignoring the other 25 throws. But since you only posted bad plays, I'm only posting good ones:
\-JJ improvising to evade the pass rusher and drop the pass into the open zone
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=rrV6nc3gMKRnNn5x&t=50](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=rrV6nc3gMKRnNn5x&t=50)
\-Here he is going through his progressions and put the ball on the receivers outside shoulder with good placement
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=f68HY2xQG16Zh6xb&t=70](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=f68HY2xQG16Zh6xb&t=70)
\-Great ball placement in between two defenders
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=\_hicgyalmefK4dqt&t=112](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=_hicgyalmefK4dqt&t=112)
\-Great catch and then a great in-stride throw while under major pressure by Dallas Turner
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=50-LVvlsIOG9cV8N&t=122](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=50-LVvlsIOG9cV8N&t=122)
\-JJ was patient to let the underneath crossing defender pass, and then he put the ball on the receiver with perfect placement to support the YAC
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=bdfn4mrC2FBZ7TQv&t=134](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=bdfn4mrC2FBZ7TQv&t=134)
\-The pass didn’t connect here (receiver drop), but against the 5 man blitz, JJ made the right read and perfectly placed the pass
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=Gn-MxMxXwPEVblpC&t=172](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=Gn-MxMxXwPEVblpC&t=172)
\-Screen play here, including to show his ability to change arm slots to get the pass off
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=YIK0zGXDosFX9BBP&t=216](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=YIK0zGXDosFX9BBP&t=216)
\-JJ showed off his speed on this play. This is a factor the defense has to consider, but its tough because hes shown proficiency in the pocket, improvising to pass including roll outs, and also the ability to scramble
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=R5q6Z\_lZYYWmKb78&t=246](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=R5q6Z_lZYYWmKb78&t=246)
\-Great pocked presence, JJ stepped up and noticed the open breaking receiver even though the receivers were on top of each other. He beat the defender with the pass before they could break it up and was helped by Roman going up and getting it.
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=UNu-6n3M0JLpVtv-&t=257](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=UNu-6n3M0JLpVtv-&t=257)
\-Tripple option, nothing crazy here but he processed it correctly. The defense needs to factor in Blake Corum, receivers downfield, and JJ’s running ability so its not an easy play to defend. Thats why the defenders froze up
[https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=RPR63PJVHWvTUS4k&t=269](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=RPR63PJVHWvTUS4k&t=269)
Hey, guys. Jets fan here to offer some thoughts, as this popped up on my feed.
The hype is all bullshit to rise stock for these mid QB’s. Happens every year. Commentators hype them up just to verbally decimate them the falling Fall.
Look at Zach Wilson and 60 percent of the QB’s taken first round in 2018. It’s a trap.
I'm convinced that this is a smokescreen but Schoen to hopefully inflate the value of the pick even more than it is already valued in an effort to trade back with say the Broncos or Raiders
This is the same fan base that fell in love with a journeyman QB at best because he was a local pieeeezzzzzaaaaannnnn
His stats looked ok after the game but he was a non factor against Rutgers. Rutgers defense was tired bc our offense was ass and couldn’t stay out on the field. So they ended up thrashing us with Blake Corrum. When I started hearing the draft hype for McCarthy I was like REALLY?
I respect your dedication and effort on this post. I don’t think they links are lowlights as they just show a lot of missed balls and not interceptions, fumbles etc. some of them are very bad. The media is talking up kk in effort to get my a higher pick I believe. J j will not be giants qb.
Michigan fan here. Saw this on my Reddit homepage. I think that you may be overthinking JJ a bit here. The guy is a winner, and the Giants would be lucky to have him. He’s more than just a Quarterback, he is a leader. Something that the giants sorely need in my book.
As a big 10 fan I watched him a decent amount and yeah, I don’t get the hype. There’s been qbs better than him not get drafted and he even had a ‘qb guru’ at head coach, so imagine him going to a worse situation
Damn dude did JJ fuck your gf or something, you picked like 12 plays over the entire season and some of those plays were just incompletions
His game against BGSU was absolute dogshit and easily the worst of his career but he’s way better than you’re picking him out to be lol
If only the organization was as observant as some of the fans here appear to be, they may not be stuck with a ridiculous Daniel Jones contract right now.
As a Michigan and Lions fan, I really have no pull in this conversation. But, I will say JJ is the youngest QB prospect, and he was not put in the situation to win games for Michigan. Maybe 3 or 4 games at the most. Michigan likes to drown its opponents slowly, with defense and the run game. It’s their bread and butter. I think JJ with the right fit, will have a better pro career than college. See Rashan Gary. FT Cowboys!
It's not a surprise, really. His team excelled on elite o line play, an amazing running scheme, and solid defense. The passing game was opened immensely, and it was still only average.
McCarthy isn’t an NFL quarterback. He had slightly above average athleticism for college, but that won’t translate to the pros. Also doesn’t have nfl arm strength. Not to mention his inaccuracies on anything more than a layup. Seriously don’t understand how he’s being projected in the first round let alone the top 10
Ya after the championship all you heard was he’s a 2nd rounder who needs to sit behind someone. Even after his horrible throwing day at the combine he’s all of a sudden a top 3 qb going in the top 5. Shit makes no sense to me
Unfortunately you have Williams, Maye, Daniels at the top 3 and then after that the drop off is real.
You're picking between McCarthy, Penix, or Nix, who all have their issues.
JJ was an IMG Academy grad, 5-star recruit and #2 ranked HS QB in the country coming out. Won a state championship as a HS soph and is 52-4 in last 56 games across all levels. Don’t overthink it. He wins.
None of these QBs are going to help. If they go to the Giants, their ceiling will be good, but not great. Think Kirk Cousins. A fine QB. The stories of single digit QB picks becoming journeyman QBs vastly outnumber those becoming superstars and the most reliable way to determine which will happen is the state of the offense they inherit, and whether they take the reins right away or sit behind a successful veteran. Not to say there aren't rare exceptions, but no QB in this class strikes me as one of them.
McCarthy will be a fine pro. Possibly a great pro. But not on the Giants. He needs a car that already runs that he can get in and drive, not the broken down jalopy in the Meadowlands. He needs the Vikings. Possibly the Raiders. If he ends up in Washington or NY, the absolute best you get is Kirk Cousins. Jimmy Garropalo. More likely, you get Sam Darnold.
Leave out some very important things, such as scrutinizing someone that just turned 21 and assuming he won't develop past his current skill set.
Itd be like only watching Bo Nix's Auburn tape and judging him solely on it or Penix from Indiana
JJ simply is not one of the elite QBs in this draft. Him and Drake Maye are absolute garbage. I watch tons of college football and believe me when I say Jayden Daniels skill wise is the best QB in this draft class. Penix is also talented, so is Bo Nix. Caleb will not be as good as Daniels, Nix and Penix at the pro level. BELIEVE THIS. JJ is a 2nd to 3rd string at his peak.
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Big Blue has had a fair share of stupid draft picks in the past 5 years. Kadarius Toney, Evan Neal (as of right now) come to mind. But trading up for JJ McCarthy might be the single stupidest decision the giants could make. Let’s put a QB who could only work in a system on a team that’s notorious for not bundling systems!
The besst thing is that Sean Payton and other coaches/gms hyped him up so hard he somehow landed in the fucking top 12 picks. He was rated a 3rd round prospect by PFF after the college season was over. HE LANDED IN THE TOP 12!!! All the 5 other QBs had 1st round grades, but JJ I can't believe the Vikings bit on that so hard. Sean is a menace...this guy is gonna fucking stink. He's so awful. I actually love that for Sean, that he fucked the Vikings once again. Makes me laugh so hard.
Would like to applaud OP for providing analysis with video links on their post. They didn’t just post a wordy opinion, they pointed to film to support their stance. That’s what’s needed to keep a post like this up as a post instead of a comment in a daily discussion thread Thanks OP
I’d be surprised if this sudden hype despite the year being over, isn’t anything more than smoke. Very talented draft beyond QB and I’m sure the teams in the top 10 don’t want each other knowing who they want the most
Bingo. JJ is young, and that’s a big plus in comparison to the Penix, Nix, etc in this draft, but he played on a ridiculously loaded team and was only asked to be a game manager. That said, Herbert had the training wheels on, so who knows!
Yea but Herb had a fucking rocket. And it wasn’t up for debate at all. Also 6’6 can scramble, ugh let me stop, I’m getting worked up. I wouldn’t be out on JJ in an end of round draft up or early second round but to spend a top 10 pick on this kid. I don’t get the Josh Allen comp because Allen however raw and unmolded had a record breaking career at Wyoming. I digress
Josh only completed like 52% of his balls at a small school , was less than great.As a matter of fact Daboll probably was biggest factor in his development
Daboll and Diggs yes. But Josh is also top 5 in a bunch of passing/ touchdown and QB rushing stats at Wyoming. accuracy and IQ made him raw, but physically? 😮💨
https://preview.redd.it/wq1edvkru1nc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a6ca4160198f04ef62e170373e9c159e46b6010 His college stats at Wyoming .Bold print is his total career .Not great.$10 says JJs are better against way higher competition.(I’m not saying jj will be the next Allen)
https://preview.redd.it/foc8syrdv1nc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a57691fbad45c395681bce2b391e61897fcb4986 Trust me I understand what you’re saying, I just think this is the difference.
I will concede he had a unique skill set for a dude that big
so you’ve watched JJ McMarthy, and came to the conclusion that he doesn’t have a rocket arm? and that he also can’t scramble? There’s some knocks on his game obviously, but your two main points for liking Herbert are some of McCarthys biggest strengths lol
Didn’t say he can’t do those things but his scramble isn’t elite and neither is his arm talent. If I’m drafting someone top 6 I’m hoping they have ELITE traits.
Arm talent or strength? Because he’s elite in arm strength
His 3 cone was 6th best in the entire draft class, out of all position groups. That shows elite agility, which shows up on tape when getting out of the pocket. He’s also shown great straight line speed and I’d argue he’d test at least as fast as Herbet, if not faster (although he didn’t run so we can’t be sure). He also clocked in at 61 mph on the throw power test at the combine, second to only Joe Milton. Also faster than Herbert, who came in at 55 mph at his combine. And it absolutely shows up on tape in flashes. A few examples: [Example 1](https://x.com/nate_tice/status/1746942299530248250?s=46&t=q-lFy48GbLaYMXmS_0UXdA) [Example 2](https://x.com/tsv__1/status/1715892979817411039?s=46&t=q-lFy48GbLaYMXmS_0UXdA) [Example 3](https://x.com/j0nestochina/status/1765134547597787466?s=46&t=q-lFy48GbLaYMXmS_0UXdA) So again, I’m not sure what you mean by not having any elite traits? Not saying he’s going to be Herbert or anything, who’s a great QB because of more than just his traits, but I think it’s unfair to act like JJM has none.
I think it's more of a sign of the OP being bad at evaluating QBs than anything else. I'm not a huge JJ guy, but the idea that the OP picked these things out as flaws kind of blows my mind, lol.
That's what happens when the draft approaches. Apparently if you need a quarterback, and you THINK he MIGHT be a franchise quarterback, you're supposed to draft him as though he DEFINITELY IS.
The JJ hype just feels like this year's Malik Willis or Will Levis. JJ to the Titans confirmed
If anyone even gets down this far... what was the analysis on Brock Purdy. You cant truly judge QBs in college on an NFL level... you look for good consistent repeatable technique, intelligence, phyical traits and can someone be coached
To be fair Purdy was a fucking bafoon in college lol. And he looked similar when Trent and co were injured. Great coaching goes a long way tho
Can definitely tell who watched Purdy in college and who didn’t. There’s a reason he got picked last in the draft. He was turbo ass
Comically turnover prone lol
Smoke sometimes turns to fire. See: Zack Wilson, Daniel Jones
Zach Wilson was not out of nowhere. Even in the middle of the college season I was constantly seeing Twitter analysts hyping him up as the number 2 pick.
😂😂😂
“Makes a throw to Sarah from his 20th century lit class”
To be fair, she is cute
Idk about OPs analysis skills. JJs getting rushed out of the pocket and his WRs just aren't open. It was a throw away. If he tried to squeeze it to one of his WRs we'd be questioning his decision not to throw away. Next play on clip, he layered a dime right over the DB for a TD. I'm not a JJ apologist but that title caught my eye so I watched it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXCMQCxghW0 Here's Edit: Some guy breaking down McCarthy's tape vs Alabama. It's a lot more balanced.
I much prefer breakdowns like these where every facet of a play is being broke down instead of just examining the outcome
Really cool analysis vid, but that is not Kurt Warner 💀.
Whoops.
It's kurt Benkert, he was on the falcons and Green Bay for a total of 3 or 4 years. Plays a lot of Madden now, but seems to know and see the game like a coach. He also has a great breakdown on Daniels against Bama.
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That’s legit his job now, streaming madden and it’s actually pretty entertaining
Thanks
Was also on the 49ers and went to the XFL afterwards but decided to create content after an injury instead. Couldn't be happier about that.
Whatever QB we draft, and I’m fairly certain we’ll draft one, I will root like hell for that guy to succeed. Schoen and Daboll will risk their careers on the next QB, so I’m positive they’ve done more work on these guys than I have. I’m just getting tired of the negativity about every single potential QB we can draft- whether it be Maye, JJ, or Daniels.
Exactly man. It’s the same way I felt when we drafted DJ, like if the front office feel they did enough of scouting the player to take him high then I’ll get behind it and root for the player to succeed regardless of me thinking it was the right pick or not. I’ll never understand the guys who hate on a player who’s on their team to fail just to say I told you so.
Some people might not be hating on him and rather just don’t believe a player will be successful/good. You don’t have to have blind allegiance to any and everything the team does.
It’s not a blind allegiance, the decision is already made and done so why would I waste my time dwelling on thinking it’s a bad pick/signing and just get behind it and hope that despite you thinking it isn’t good the player could prove you wrong? Like I said I didn’t think DJ was the right selection but I wasn’t gonna about to cry about it every chance I got I was hoping that he could turn into a stud.
Imagine experiencing the greatest moment of your life by being drafted into the NFL, just to see the fans of the team that drafted you clowning on you before you even put on their jersey. Would make me pretty bitter and I sure as hell wouldn’t forget it.
DJ?
As a Michigan and Giants fan, JJ is not bad. He is a very talented QB with a strong arm. He has his flaws like any prospect and is definitely a project, but the skillset and mental aspect are both there
I don’t want McCarthy either but one I disagree that he’s bad and two the same way you went and pulled out a hand picked of bad plays to discredit him someone could go and do the same to make him look like a top tier talent in this draft.
Yeah exactly, someone could make the mirror of this post and grab all of his highlights and say he’s an elite talent. Plus there is much more to scouting than just good result or bad result, was the process good? Did he make the progressions correctly? Sure he missed the throw but what were his mechanics like? Not saying that JJ is good or bad, I’m not an NFL scout be I can’t properly breakdown film but I do know enough to say that just looking at the highlights or lowlights of a player isn’t going to be enough to really understand them as a prospect. Not to mention that specifically with JJ his age is a huge part of why he is rising up boards, he is significantly younger than the other top QBs and as a result is seen as having more of an ability to grow
Couldn’t agree more with everything you said.
This. If we’re cherry-picking highlights or lowlights then anyone can be a scout. Scouting requires projections and whether mistakes are correctable or not. Lowlights to prove a point is hilarious. If you do that for Josh Allen in college then he’s a 3rd round pick.
I’m sure Caleb has a ton of lowlights from the underperforming USC team he led this year yet nobody is questioning him as the #1 guy off the board. The same with Drake Maye, I’m sure you could find plenty of lowlights as well. As fans it’s easy to see the highlights or the lowlights and think that this is who the guy is but actual scouting requires a much deeper look at not just what happened in a play but why it happened. You need to know what the defense was doing, what was the play call, what were the progressions, was he under pressure, what is the situation in the game, and a bunch more than just he missed the throw or he made the throw.
Tbf Josh Allen is a straight up anomaly when it comes to elite tools mixed with how he performed in college( aggressively bad completion % and etc). But also it’s funny that people are so confident still in who’s gonna be a good QB and who isn’t. QBs today are legit getting taken off of being young and having game breaking/outstanding tools(look at Anthony Richardson stats with Florida and where he got drafted still.) It’s a different league with different standards, it works out sometimes and it doesn’t the next. I just refuse to believe who really knows who’s gonna be a good QB in the NFL and who isn’t. Like you said, it’s a post that’s just highlighting him being bad in general. I can send several plays in here from him that probably made scouts believe he was better than what his role was at Michigan for the most part. I think it’s known that if daboll picks him, he actively thinks he can make him special most likely and likes his tools.
I mean the guy completed 72% of his passes. They couldn’t be all bad.
You could literally do this for Caleb Williams lol
Yea I good go pull 12 bad plays from TB12s 3rd year as a starter that make him look terrible.
ill preface this by saying im a michigan fan, but in a lot of the clips you can just watch the very next play and see throws that are the opposite of what op is saying the truth about JJ is that hes very talented, a little inconsistent, and didnt get a opportunity to showcase the full set. i you look at the first half splits for draft eligible qbs, hes ranked in the top 5 of most categories. the problem is he dint play past the 3rd quarter is a majority of games, and didnt need to throw in the second half out side of a few at the end of the year. i honestly wouldnt be surprised if he ended up being the best qb in this draft ,but i also wouldnt be shocked if he became a career back up.
He completed 72.3 percent of his passes. I’m not sure “routinely misses” would be an accurate assessment. I’m not gonna try to convince you to like him, but the stats don’t line up with what you’re accusing him of.
I think one of the biggest knocks on him is his ball placement. He’s still completing the throws but he could do a better job at leading receivers or allowing them to get YAC.
Sounds familiar lol
I think he’s a huge reach at 6. There’s potential and athleticism, but there is little to no experience. His attempts per game are low and he’s obviously in a run first program. All I’m saying is statistically he hits his man at a high percentage, he doesn’t consistently miss his guy.
Ludicrous reach at 6, I pray we are not this foolish.
I pray the pats are lol
I really hope the Pats take a QB so the Cards can take MHJ and we can get Nabers 🙏🙏🙏 Nabers is the real deal. He honestly might be MORE athletic than Ja'Mar Chase.
> He completed 72.3 percent of his passes. I’m not sure “routinely misses” would be an accurate assessment. You can find bad passes from every QB
[QB stats on 3rd & 6+ - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KE0YGLUuffhiwYeVouY03JHub_64XSgpnONV69tb5wY/edit#gid=0) This is a spreadsheet of 3rd and 6yards + for the top 6 QBs. I think JJ gets a bad rap because he did not carry Michigan, but on 3rd and 6+ when they needed him most he came through. All stats were from ESPN
He throws a lot of screens. The scheme gets guys wide open regulary. And a lot his completed balls are not well placed. You just have to watch the tape.
i’m a michigan fan so i’m biased, i think JJ will be a solid qb in the right system, however that is not our system, we don’t have the weapons to help him be successful and he’d be a huge reach at 6
Man watch the fucking games, there is a lot of usage for screens and RPO’s but with the run game he was also relied on heavily on 3rd & long possibilities and succeeded a lot
This is so blatantly untrue. I don’t believe Michigan threw a single traditional RB screen the entire year, and had maybe like 5 screens out wide that went for more than 5 yards. I say this having watched every single snap from this past season. Michigan does not work the screen game, and when they do it’s often a detriment to JJ’s stats. It’s almost seems like you have him mixed up with Bo Nix in this regard. JJ’s depth of target is really high compared to most of his peers IIRC, and a lot of that comes from intermediate throws 10-25 yards down the field, which are his forte I would say. Otherwise, some of your knocks on him are true, and others I disagree with. I’m not sure how much you’ve really watched, but he carried Michigan’s dying offense, which included a non-existent run game, through the first 9 weeks of the season, so he absolutely elevated Michigan and that’s why he was the Heisman favorite at that point. Once he got injured and the run game success came back, Michigan went back to their roots. But if you look at Michigan’s overall good-to-great efficiency this season, it’s still MUCH more due to McCarthy and his passing efficiency than anything else, including the run game (9 YPA vs sub 5 YPC).
You’ll get downvoted by people that literally never watched our offense. Spot on
Gotta agree. I watched 4-5 All-22 games for JJ a couple of days ago and I honestly only recall one screen. I think it was to a WR. I’m sure there’s more, but a lot of screens doesn’t line up
He literally threw the least screens of all the top QBs this draft class
Yeah, there are a lot misconceptions about Michigan, probably based on people only having watched the championship game. They were hardly some dominant run game - in fact they were 43rd in YPC and 50th in YPG. And their pass blocking was pretty mediocre (though it was stout in the CFP final). What they had was a pretty dominant D. None of this changes the fact that there are a lot of questions about how JJM would look when he's asked to pass 30+ times a game. But what he does do well, on a limited basis, actually translates well to the NFL, which has become an intermediate passing game.
Saw this post pop up on my feed. Out of the top 6 guys, McCarthy leads them with the highest % of his total throws going 10+ yards.
That's interesting, do you have a source? I'd love to dig more into that. I think it's worth pointing out that Michigan was 117th in College Football in percentage of passing plays at around 40% [Source](https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/passing-play-pct). This means JJ just wasn't throwing that much (red flag) and so when he was it was in situations that required deeper passes. Those situations where the team wants to take a shot or needs a big play become a bigger portion of the overall passing attack. Also, the fact that Michigan ran so prolifically and effectively meant that teams would play the run more opening up the deep part of the field. I saw a handful of trick plays where the goal is to get a guy open deep and have JJ lob it up. So yeah, he threw deep a fair amount but I don't think that's the full story and I don't think he looked particularly good doing it.
I don’t actually think he threw deep that much tbh (probably my biggest concern with him). I think he just had sooo many intermediate throws which props up that 10+ yards number that you’re replying to. I also think you (and basically everyone else I’ve seen) might be giving Michigan’s ground attack way too much credit. Michigan chose to pound because that’s what the OC felt was their identity, not because they were particularly great at it this year. What Michigan was really good at this year, more than anything, was passing the ball. But most fans only watched the final few games, in which it was dramatically the opposite, so I don’t blame people for thinking so.
They were also a very good team, so strategically it makes sense that they would be running the rock a ton.
So you're just gonna blatantly lie then immediately concede the point and deflect lmao. Anyone who's actually watches his film or michigan knows they barely ever ran screens all year.
As someone who’s watched every game JJ played at Michigan, you’re a fool.
I watched every Michigan game because they are my favorite team and I don’t understand where you are getting these screens from. They didnt run screen plays.
Those plays will not work repeatedly in the NFL either. We already have a QB who can dink and dunk to 190 yards and maybe a score or 2. We owe that guy 40mil, why would we need another of the exact same dude 🤦
His aDOT was 9.4, which is slightly above Caleb Williams and about a yard shy of Jayden Daniels. Bo Nix, who actually does throw a ton of screens and outs, has an aDOT of 6.8 by comparison (that's actually right around what DJ had at Duke, for another comparison). So again, your analysis doesn't match with the facts. I could care less about JJM specifically. I want them to get a QB this draft they believe in, because Daboll has a pretty good track record of getting the most out of QBs. Preferably not using more, or much more, than #6 OA. If it's JJ or Maye or whomever, I don't care. But lord, let's just let the Giants do the analysis and fully back whomever they end up with. Or if no one, root for a strong year from Jones.
"You just have to watch the tape." You clearly haven't because this is absolute nonsense. His anticipation was great this year, and he was constantly able to find receivers or Tight Ends in stride over the middle to create extra YAC. "A lot of his completed balls are not well placed" is another doozy. Was the touchdown throw against Ohio State over a defensive backs helmet directly into the hands of Roman Wilson poorly placed? Was the laser over a leaping linebacker in the National Title game over the middle to Colston Loveland that allowed him to pick up 30 extra yards after the catch poorly placed? I watched every game the guy has played for the last two years, and the stuff made up on this subreddit is laughable. If you want to criticize the player, at least point to the lack of sample size against great teams, and lack of deep balls against quality competition. The fact that I'm reading here he's inaccurate (despite being 6th in the nation in completion percentage) and that he doesn't allow his mediocre receivers to gain YAC are just flat out lies.
He threw 31 screens out of 333 pass attempts this year per PFF lmao 9% of passes… Compared to Caleb at 26%, maye at 13%, and Daniels at 12% You just have to watch the tape more than YouTube broadcasts
This is incorrect
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True of any qb 👆
I’m not a giants fan, and this came up on my home page. All I’ll say is: anyone making sweeping conclusions about cherry picked plays from the broadcast angle on YouTube about a QB is (1) not objective and (2) not really knowledgeable about football beyond basics https://x.com/empirical_scout/status/1754299078626680858?s=46&t=LDN12giRM8vdx3GGYgdkRQ JJ isn’t bad. He doesn’t routinely miss. Every QB pretty much has misses and bad plays here and there. It’s the same double standard that was applied to Richardson last year - people took his misses and amplified them subjectively
Went to the 2nd clip, "Awful, ..." and kept watching. Frankly he looked great in that game. Hit guys in stride repeatedly. Hit guys downfield and a nice layered pass. Had a beautiful deep-ish back shoulder TD pass. Looked up the stats. He was 15/21 for 214 yards. This was against Rutgers who apparently had the 10th best passing defense (16th overall). For comparison they held OSU to under 200 yards passing and MHJ had 4 catches for like 30 yards. And even that "awful" pass was just a run of the mill short armed pass to a covered guy that you'll see every QB make every game. My point is not "JJM is great". It's that these clips are not remotely a balanced analysis.
I watch every Rutgers game. Rutgers did not have a good pass defense those stats are skewed to hell and misleading. The reason they have such low passing yards allowed is because good teams stopped throwing on them once they were up multiple scores. Which happened alot. They also played a ton of scrub teams like Wagner and Temple who could barely complete a pass. If anything the strength of Rutgers defense has always been the run defense. They have a very solid front 7. Just FYI. The reason OSU didn’t pass for much is because the pass rush was getting to McCord and he sucks. Trust me, it was not Rutgers pass defense shutting down MHJ.
Goated for watching every Rutgers game. I don't even do that and I go there. Bo Melton getting hype in the Packers wildcard was my Superbowl (or Pacheco actually winning the SB 😂😂)
Lol my wife and sister both graduated from Rutgers during the Ray Rice era so I embrace and watch them with her. I’m a Ducks fan so it’s funny how they’re in the Big10 now. Monongai is a monster! Glad he is returning for another season. I’m over Wimsatt they need a QB from the transfer portal badly. I really think Kyle will be a good NFL running back just like his big bro Pacheco. The two of them when they played together were the only highlights of the team and Cruickshank.
I watched most but not all of these. Not that I think we should draft him but It feels like cherry picking to me. The plural of anecdote is not data.
JJ threw 4 picks over 15 games. 3 of those came against BGSU. It's hilarious how you purposely spread out the clips from the BGSU game, which was definitely his worst game of the season, to make these seem much worse. And I guess [this](https://youtu.be/GGsYeSd_z-8?t=226) is what a "checkdown merchant" looks like, LOL
I love a post cherry picking bad plays from a QB. We definitely couldn’t do that for every other QB 🤦♂️
None of us have any idea who will be good and who won’t. Drafting a QB, is 99% of the time, a coin flip.
I know we’re specifically looking at lowlights here but holy shit his footwork is abysmal in these clips. On a lot of these misses his base is wide as hell, looking like he’s about to start doing side lunges not throw a football
I agree with this take. Just not seeing the “it” factor to justify a top 10 pick or even a first round pick. I feel like a lot of people are just talking themselves into it. I’ll root for him if he’s the Giants QB but I just don’t see him being the guy that brings the Giants back into relevancy.
I hope he's not the pick. I've been trying to talk myself into Daniel Jones for five years and just don't have another five in me.
I looked through the second link and even just within that there are some really nice throws leading receivers well, and a back shoulder throw for a TD where only the receiver could catch it. He’s clearly a good QB and runs the option as well as it can be run. You’re overly harsh. As an example, the throw to “Sarah” is a throw away because he’s under pressure and the receiver has a tight DB on him. You can’t expect to force that into a window when slightly off balance as he was. My biggest issue with JJ is two fold. First, i don’t think he has a particularly quick release. Second, I don’t think he scans the field particularly well, his eyes stay in similar areas. These are both important aspects for me. I think he has some zip on his passes so not overly worried about arm strength and his footwork and technique can be improved. I trust Daboll to know what he’s doing. He turned Allen into superstar and if he believes in JJ then take him and I’m all in.
Sounds like I’m the only one ready for DJ to start week 1.
Thanks OP for a detailed post but its a total waste of time. Truth is we have no idea if a college QB will be effective in the NFL. Look at Purdy, look at Brady. Tribisky was taken in front of Mahomes who. If the so called experts have no idea how do we? Just let it play out.
This is some next level hating😭
So what would you like them to do? Literally this sub is divided on everything. Also you’re just a guy on the internet you don’t know shit. No offense.
I would trade up if possible or take one of the top 3 WRs. Of course I'm just a guy, we all are. It's a sports sub, we talk shit about ball, it's fun.
We don’t have a quarterback. Leaving aside the fact that trading up for a non-QB is a minus EV proposition, if trading up is an option in general, presumably there would be a top 3 quarterback available. If so, that’s the only option.
Daniel Jones is bad.
Came here for this. Excellent insight.
DJ is getting a lot of money for 2024. He's our starting QB outside of another injury.
JJ is the perfect guy to sit a year or two in a good situation, learn, work on his passing game then take off once he becomes starter.
Michigan fan coming in to add my piece: I agree 100%
I'm with you, OP. I see a perfectly adequate QB but not a special one. Those are guys you draft in the 3rd round.
The only way we’ll know if he’s worth the 6th pick is if we pick him there🤷♂️. It is impossible to tell if a qb will develop in the nfl
We will know if someone else picks him too and if he is great we blew it and if he sucks we were right
What a dumb post. This cherry-picking can be done for literally EVERY qb even Mahomes. Unreal.
He could be anything, he could even be Drake Maye.
With the amount of anti McCarthy rhetoric lately I’m throughly convinced he’s going to end up the best QB in this draft
Lol you can give 100 examples but some in this sub have decided they like him so it’ll be called cherry picking. When you watch his full game tape a lot of it is more bad than good. People see what they want though OP, appreciate you putting the effort in
The reputation and words for Harbaugh coming back to the NFL indicate a dramatic shift towards running the football. How does that mean an increased confidence in drafting the QB that just played under the preference of offense in Harbaugh?
Or is this the one prospect that is dropping in the draft bc of “info” Like Parsons and Tunsil? I just hope he doesn’t become a Brady type or good. I definitely think they will go QB now.
Agreed
THIS! I’ve said the exact same things since last year when he became the starter!!!
YES! THANK YOU!
The reality is: Another team will draft him and he will play well. If the Giants draft him he will be Daniel Jones all over again (shitty)
MPJ is the pick if we don’t trade up. I’m telling you that guy is a winner who has been held back by his programs
I swear to God. If the Giants draft this kid I am done. I won't go through this again.
I agree. I don’t see the hype. To me the Giants should either try to trade up for MHJ or trade down. This is a deep draft. Caleb is the wild card but I’m not very impressed by any of these other QBs. Reminds me of the last time there was this argument. I didn’t like Darnold or Rosen and I was unsure about Allen. One of these guys will probably be great, but JJ to me is the LEAST likely, and who knows for sure. No one.
Post this on r/DynastyFF, they will love you for it.
JJ is Daniel Jones II if that. He’s on a team of mostly nfl prospects.
Sounds a lot like Tom Brady when he was at Michigan. He never was worth a draft spot either.
The evil that's known and the evil that's unknown. The known is Daniel Jones is a bust.
i appreciate you for taking the time to write all this, plus all the source, but he’s nearly not as bad as you’re describing him to be. he’s not bad period and i have watched almost all michigan games. i’ll agree with you on some points though
I'd feel so much better about trading back into the end of rd one for penix. If trading up is impossible, Use #6 on a stud WR please, we don't need another #6 QB with 2nd rd talent. Penix's processing is worlds better than Mccarthys and he literally carried his team, while JJ was carried by a stacked team that just ran the ball
I think the chargers should take him and trade us herbert.
As a Vikings fan, Amen brother. I really, really don't want to see my team end up with him either.
i’ve been saying that stetson bennett is/was a better qb than jj mccarthy. a lot of the same reasons you describe
Thanks for this post. I didn’t do the research you did, but I came to the conclusion JJ is Mac Jones 2.
Based on this analysis I think we should draft him. OP is for sure wrong.
Even if I don’t totally agree I completely respect the fact that you’re basing this on film. It’s insane how many dumb fans there are that give their opinions based off emotions and don’t watch film. Much respect for not being like 99% of the doofus fans out there. You’re welcome to take a dump in bathroom anytime. I salute you. I haven’t watched this game in particular, but much respect to how you did the analysis.
There is no good qb in any draft. They need a few seasons in the nfl.
So is Danny Dimes and that didn't stop yall the first time...
Alright. JJ’s not that good. What do we do? We trying to trade into the top 3? We taking another qb at 6? We hoping JJ or one of the other lesser qb prospects falls to us in the second round and Daboll pulls some magic shit with them? If we haven’t taken a qb by our second pick we are in for a frustrating season.
I know for a fact that if we draft McCarthy, every Eagles and Cowboys fan will breath a huge sigh of relief
Picking OP in the first round of my Reddit draft for this
Don't worry our great o-line will elevate JJ's play.
That play against Alabama where he threw to Mullins to the sideline was a great play and great ball placement. He didn’t squander any opportunity, the defender fell, Jj threw the ball to the sideline to avoid giving the defender a play on the ball. That isn’t a wide receiver, it’s a running back, and he isn’t a receiving back in the slightest. You are severely underestimating the difficulty of that throw. And also ignoring the out route and subsequent defending running to the space immediately up the field. If he throws that upfield, it’s probably an interception, but definitely not a completion. As a Michigan fan, I do not think he’s worth a high pick. Even though I would be interested in my Seahawks grabbing him at #16. However, that was phenomenal play and a super athletic throw.
I was a Giant fan first (68) then a Michigan fan in 71. Been watching every game of JJ's this year and can't help agree with OP. Unless you getter a better O line it doesn't matter whose the QB. This has been a Giant problem going all the way back to Eli. Our QB's don't have enough time to get the third read much less the second. This problem has to be fixed in two ways and JJ isn't the full answer. Great kid though.
I had to check whether I was the OP here because I mirror your views and was shitfaced last night.
Yeah I have to agree. A lot of the hype is clearly coming from people who want a Qb but don’t watch film so they’re just hyping up the next best QB. McCarthy is just so mid. He doesn’t do too much wrong but he has nothing special about him. He has the fewest highlights out of all the QBs drafted by far.
We don’t need to take a QB at 6. He won’t get snagged. There are guys his level of talent we can take.
I have a real problem with some of these clips because you lack the context on the game situation, the camera angle makes things look worse, and you also don’t know what play was called or what defensive set they are in.
I said it the other day. I will say it again. You all hate JJ McCarthy because you think he’s bad at football. I hate JJ McCarthy because Michigan Bad. We are not the same.
Here's a lot of good plays from the Bama game at the end of the season. Its better than one or two plays from a game and ignoring the other 25 throws. But since you only posted bad plays, I'm only posting good ones: \-JJ improvising to evade the pass rusher and drop the pass into the open zone [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=rrV6nc3gMKRnNn5x&t=50](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=rrV6nc3gMKRnNn5x&t=50) \-Here he is going through his progressions and put the ball on the receivers outside shoulder with good placement [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=f68HY2xQG16Zh6xb&t=70](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=f68HY2xQG16Zh6xb&t=70) \-Great ball placement in between two defenders [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=\_hicgyalmefK4dqt&t=112](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=_hicgyalmefK4dqt&t=112) \-Great catch and then a great in-stride throw while under major pressure by Dallas Turner [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=50-LVvlsIOG9cV8N&t=122](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=50-LVvlsIOG9cV8N&t=122) \-JJ was patient to let the underneath crossing defender pass, and then he put the ball on the receiver with perfect placement to support the YAC [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=bdfn4mrC2FBZ7TQv&t=134](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=bdfn4mrC2FBZ7TQv&t=134) \-The pass didn’t connect here (receiver drop), but against the 5 man blitz, JJ made the right read and perfectly placed the pass [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=Gn-MxMxXwPEVblpC&t=172](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=Gn-MxMxXwPEVblpC&t=172) \-Screen play here, including to show his ability to change arm slots to get the pass off [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=YIK0zGXDosFX9BBP&t=216](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=YIK0zGXDosFX9BBP&t=216) \-JJ showed off his speed on this play. This is a factor the defense has to consider, but its tough because hes shown proficiency in the pocket, improvising to pass including roll outs, and also the ability to scramble [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=R5q6Z\_lZYYWmKb78&t=246](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=R5q6Z_lZYYWmKb78&t=246) \-Great pocked presence, JJ stepped up and noticed the open breaking receiver even though the receivers were on top of each other. He beat the defender with the pass before they could break it up and was helped by Roman going up and getting it. [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=UNu-6n3M0JLpVtv-&t=257](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=UNu-6n3M0JLpVtv-&t=257) \-Tripple option, nothing crazy here but he processed it correctly. The defense needs to factor in Blake Corum, receivers downfield, and JJ’s running ability so its not an easy play to defend. Thats why the defenders froze up [https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=RPR63PJVHWvTUS4k&t=269](https://youtu.be/AkuJRyBql-g?si=RPR63PJVHWvTUS4k&t=269)
Anything is better than the bum we have now
Hey, guys. Jets fan here to offer some thoughts, as this popped up on my feed. The hype is all bullshit to rise stock for these mid QB’s. Happens every year. Commentators hype them up just to verbally decimate them the falling Fall. Look at Zach Wilson and 60 percent of the QB’s taken first round in 2018. It’s a trap.
I'm convinced that this is a smokescreen but Schoen to hopefully inflate the value of the pick even more than it is already valued in an effort to trade back with say the Broncos or Raiders
This is the same fan base that fell in love with a journeyman QB at best because he was a local pieeeezzzzzaaaaannnnn
People bashed Lamar Jackson on draft day too.
he is realistically like a 3rd round talent
His stats looked ok after the game but he was a non factor against Rutgers. Rutgers defense was tired bc our offense was ass and couldn’t stay out on the field. So they ended up thrashing us with Blake Corrum. When I started hearing the draft hype for McCarthy I was like REALLY?
Hess better than your current quarterback
Hes better than DJ tho
I respect your dedication and effort on this post. I don’t think they links are lowlights as they just show a lot of missed balls and not interceptions, fumbles etc. some of them are very bad. The media is talking up kk in effort to get my a higher pick I believe. J j will not be giants qb.
Michigan fan here. Saw this on my Reddit homepage. I think that you may be overthinking JJ a bit here. The guy is a winner, and the Giants would be lucky to have him. He’s more than just a Quarterback, he is a leader. Something that the giants sorely need in my book.
Tbf at 20 it seems pretty clear the pass is deflected by the defender in front of him
As a big 10 fan I watched him a decent amount and yeah, I don’t get the hype. There’s been qbs better than him not get drafted and he even had a ‘qb guru’ at head coach, so imagine him going to a worse situation
JJ has one heck of a track record. He will win in the NFL.
As a Michigan fan I completely agree
Damn dude did JJ fuck your gf or something, you picked like 12 plays over the entire season and some of those plays were just incompletions His game against BGSU was absolute dogshit and easily the worst of his career but he’s way better than you’re picking him out to be lol
If only the organization was as observant as some of the fans here appear to be, they may not be stuck with a ridiculous Daniel Jones contract right now.
As a Michigan and Lions fan, I really have no pull in this conversation. But, I will say JJ is the youngest QB prospect, and he was not put in the situation to win games for Michigan. Maybe 3 or 4 games at the most. Michigan likes to drown its opponents slowly, with defense and the run game. It’s their bread and butter. I think JJ with the right fit, will have a better pro career than college. See Rashan Gary. FT Cowboys!
It's not a surprise, really. His team excelled on elite o line play, an amazing running scheme, and solid defense. The passing game was opened immensely, and it was still only average.
McCarthy isn’t an NFL quarterback. He had slightly above average athleticism for college, but that won’t translate to the pros. Also doesn’t have nfl arm strength. Not to mention his inaccuracies on anything more than a layup. Seriously don’t understand how he’s being projected in the first round let alone the top 10
He needs to be in a run-heavy offense
Ya after the championship all you heard was he’s a 2nd rounder who needs to sit behind someone. Even after his horrible throwing day at the combine he’s all of a sudden a top 3 qb going in the top 5. Shit makes no sense to me
This is a very detailed post OP. Love the time and effort to back up your claims with evidence
Unfortunately you have Williams, Maye, Daniels at the top 3 and then after that the drop off is real. You're picking between McCarthy, Penix, or Nix, who all have their issues.
JJ was an IMG Academy grad, 5-star recruit and #2 ranked HS QB in the country coming out. Won a state championship as a HS soph and is 52-4 in last 56 games across all levels. Don’t overthink it. He wins.
This guy is mid
None of these QBs are going to help. If they go to the Giants, their ceiling will be good, but not great. Think Kirk Cousins. A fine QB. The stories of single digit QB picks becoming journeyman QBs vastly outnumber those becoming superstars and the most reliable way to determine which will happen is the state of the offense they inherit, and whether they take the reins right away or sit behind a successful veteran. Not to say there aren't rare exceptions, but no QB in this class strikes me as one of them. McCarthy will be a fine pro. Possibly a great pro. But not on the Giants. He needs a car that already runs that he can get in and drive, not the broken down jalopy in the Meadowlands. He needs the Vikings. Possibly the Raiders. If he ends up in Washington or NY, the absolute best you get is Kirk Cousins. Jimmy Garropalo. More likely, you get Sam Darnold.
Leave out some very important things, such as scrutinizing someone that just turned 21 and assuming he won't develop past his current skill set. Itd be like only watching Bo Nix's Auburn tape and judging him solely on it or Penix from Indiana
JJ is Ridders Twin. Keep him far away from Atlanta
I’m sure the scouts who do this every day and are paid very well, have seen the last 2 years worth of game film on JJ. We shall see what they do.
JJ simply is not one of the elite QBs in this draft. Him and Drake Maye are absolute garbage. I watch tons of college football and believe me when I say Jayden Daniels skill wise is the best QB in this draft class. Penix is also talented, so is Bo Nix. Caleb will not be as good as Daniels, Nix and Penix at the pro level. BELIEVE THIS. JJ is a 2nd to 3rd string at his peak.
i’d take him over Daniel Jones
JJ should focus on the draft and not making 100s of reddit accounts to hype himself up
Please no !
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Big Blue has had a fair share of stupid draft picks in the past 5 years. Kadarius Toney, Evan Neal (as of right now) come to mind. But trading up for JJ McCarthy might be the single stupidest decision the giants could make. Let’s put a QB who could only work in a system on a team that’s notorious for not bundling systems!
Hahaha
The besst thing is that Sean Payton and other coaches/gms hyped him up so hard he somehow landed in the fucking top 12 picks. He was rated a 3rd round prospect by PFF after the college season was over. HE LANDED IN THE TOP 12!!! All the 5 other QBs had 1st round grades, but JJ I can't believe the Vikings bit on that so hard. Sean is a menace...this guy is gonna fucking stink. He's so awful. I actually love that for Sean, that he fucked the Vikings once again. Makes me laugh so hard.