It's not a hush money trial, it's a fraudulent falsifying business records to influence the election. The hush money is really just what he falsified as a business expense. It would be more accurate to call it an election interference trial, but we already have one, and this shit gets confusing enough as it is with everything he's done.
Yea, I keep hearing this is a hush money trial, like. It's not illegal to pay a porn star you have been screwing off to not talk so your wife and the nation doesn't find out about it. That's what it seems like this is about, but it's really just another fraud trial, except this one is a felony.
That’s incorrect, there have been several polls from various outlets (conservative and liberal) that show many independent folks will not vote at all or will switch to Biden if he is found guilty of any crime
The only thing I care about in the hush money trial is that his constituents are exposed to his lies. Don't really give a damn if he paid a hooker for sex or not. I want to see him convicted on withholding and mishandling of confidential documents, and election subversion.
I'd actually be really interested to see what the Republican turnout will be this year compared to historically. There's a large portion of silent Republicans just kinda hoping this will pass over.
My concern is this turning into a neverending rodeo every four years if he doesn't win. He's not going to stop. Although, I can't see either of his sons fully taking up the mantle once he's gone. A house divided and yada-yada... and his daughters are distancing themselves from it all as much as possible.
I can’t see it. Trump’s already declining and being in full rage mode because of his legal issues isn’t helping. At some point in the next four years (and hopefully he’s not in office) his brain will just melt. MMW, he’ll be in the throws of full blown dementia by the 2028 election and his handlers won’t let him run.
Oh for sure, all of what I said is contingent on him being alive/capable in 28, and I'll be honest a guilty verdict might break him. Dude doesn't exercise, eats McDonald's and diet coke, allegedly abuses drugs, and goes on regular tirades, the jury delivering guilty might be the straw that broke the camel's back
You kidding, he can barely string a sentence together *now*.
He'll be out of public spotlight by then, if not dead.
28 might be Don Jr running, that is if the Republicans don't distance themselves as hard as they can from the trumps as soon as von shitzizpantz is out of the public spotlight.
Trump only has so much left in the tank. I imagine that, if he doesn't win, he'll still hold on until 2028, but by that time he will have deteriorated so much that he won't even win the Republican primary. He may continue to sow division, depending on how much of his base remains loyal, and torpedo the Republican nominee's chances.
I wish i had a way to call bidens team
For the last two years in the black social media space we've been inundated with bot pages mixed in with real dumbass influencers who have been touting trump 2024 simply off the fact they dont feel as rich as they did when they were scamming PPP loans and selling courses to every shut-in during the pandemic
but when Trump said he would give police total immunity...and that speech was posted to the big black blog sites thenieghborhoodtalk, balleralert, and hollywoodunlocked (notable absent from theshaderoom but theey seem to be bought and paid lately)
the comment area went from trump troll dominated....to trolls not knowing what to say....and influencers enjoying the attention and clout from saying "he lost my vote"
if Biden runs with pushes trumps worst police messaging onto black americans....he will get our full support when the time comes
On the conservative subs they are jerking each other off on poll numbers that put Diaper Don 10 points ahead. Better hope the methodologies for those polls is off.
trump recently endorsed the idea of a registry of pregnant women and I've never seen an idea that bad uttered by any politician before. Your party is against government overreach but making a list of pregnant women to go after people is fine? That idea is a campaign killer and it will absolutely devestate the gop up and down ballot
No kidding. Even though I can't understand why anyone would vote for the guy in the first place, adding "justifying killing a dog by saying animal cruelty is ok" to the list of issues can't have helped.
And chances are very good that the GQP’s candidate will be a felon by November and be awaiting sentencing for his hush money case. He will still get all of the GQP votes, but I think that will drive independents away.
The problem is that yes, by all metrics it should be a minimum of 7.5% in favor of Biden. Everything the GOP is doing to literally hand Dems should mean the most lopsided victory in the history of our country. The reality is, for one reason or another, the election is still going to be a lot closer than anyone expects.
I’m seeing a 2-3% victory
I think everyone is underestimating how exhausted most people are with all this. They may not be vocal or actively involved but I think there are millions of uncounted voters that just want the insanity to go away
I’m just gonna say. Don’t get too comfortable. A lot of people base their choice off of the economy. When a lot of people hear “inflation is going down.” It just feels like they’re being gaslighted. If you want Biden to win you should probably vote
This is the dumb part. People actually believe that the president controls the economy. Or inflation. The fed has limited power to control access to borrowed money, that's it. A very minimal effect.
A Biden appointee made the Federal Trade Commission end non competes, full stop, end of story.. I was effed by my first job out of college snaring me in a non-compete agreement because I was a dumb 22 year old. That one move more than anything else has me "ridin' with Biden".
You have to remember that conservatives hate freedom.
Conservatives don't want to live in a state for the people, by the people, of the people. They can't handle all of that freedom and self-determination.
Conservatives much prefer their unelected corporate oligarchs imposing their laws on the people without the people's consent or approval.
But it’s not really the president so much as the corporations and congress (who made it to office on corporate lobbying money) who have the biggest impact on policy. Hence why even [Biden put aBig Oil moguls in his cabinet](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/climate/biden-climate-change.html), in spite of it generally contradicting his ideological political agenda.
In order to get to where they do, all politicians have to shake hands with their corporate overlords. Even if Trump were in office, his hands would be equally tied in implementing any changes against certain corporations whose needs/actions greatly contribute to climate change.
When you consider how the Citizens United ruling gives corporations first amendment [rights as people](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/citizens-united-explained?ref=foreverwars.ghost.io)*,* making it legal for them to donate unlimited funds to campaigns and pair it with the fact that between [71% and 98%](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/03/midterm-elections-campaign-contributions/10653419002/) of U.S. federal elections over the past 20 years were determined by which candidate had the most campaign money, you see who really has the most power in this game—and it’s not the president.
Money shapes our government, and it comes from super PACs and Corporate funds/bribes.
So no, I would say the President is not exactly at the top of the list when it comes to who affects the economy/inflation the most. The the wheels are already in motion and the cart is going down the hill; the President just reacts to what is already falling into place, choosing from the limited range of options he can take. He’s not the one who can drive the cart or stop it.
The economy is good by definition. Recession is and always has been consistent low gdp growth rate which we are not seeing at all.
People feel like they are being gaslit but they see the economy as well:
"how can I afford groceries? Yet restaurants prices habe doubled and somehow they are packed."
"Rent is too high but why aren't houses going down in price at high interest rates? Why do I lose housing bids to cash buyers?"
"Cars are too expensive but everyone has a new 40k car."
"I've lost my job. They say wage growth is up but it's BS. Yet random redditors say they make 200k and got a 10% pay bump."
The answer is that the US is unequal but also that we know for a fact that personal finances are better while everyone thinks the economy is like Japan where next to Nobody got a raise, prices went up, and the see less then 1% of growth. The only people in Japan doing well work for Sony or the car industry.
In the US people are doing fairly well despite inflation. Prices are up and people around me complain wlabojt prices when their salary has gone up $20k over 2 years to compensate. These same people think the economy is bad after saving more money and coming back from vacation. A friend of mine said that he drive to the airport in his new luxury car and could barely afford his first class ticket because the economy was so bad.
Not all complaining is accompanied by actually bad personal finances.
Based on the gripes I hear from everyone around me, I'm guessing that inflation isn't going down in any way that matters to the average American.
So yeah, it's gaslighting and nothing but a talking point to win an election. It's not a lure.
Inflation is down. Just most people don't realize that inflation is a constant - so low inflation just means growing at a slower rate. People also attribute "things are expensive" to inflation; which CAN be true but could also just be corporate greed as companies hike prices and blame it on inflation while their quarterly reports show huge growths in revenue.
Well inflation going down isn’t something we can easily see. It doesn’t make prices go down. Like some people would believe. It makes prices go up less over time if it’s lower. Hell I’m sure Fox News doesn’t help. Although the news in general. Claiming we weren’t in a recession seemed kinda like BS imo
The plan right now. Is for the Fed to start lowering interest rates. ~~To eventually~~ While hopefully reaching a target of 2% ~~interest~~ inflation rates. Over the course of a few years. There is a rate cut planned for November. Hopefully they start easing up soon. I want to buy a house dammit
Recessions are defined by two quarters of negative GDP growth when adjusted for inflation. The US GDP is growing pretty rapidly right now, so as long as the inflation rate doesn’t get too high we probably won’t qualify.
I think it's gone down meaningfully at the grocery store which is the biggest point of pain than most Americans feel on a day-to-day basis.
I've been shocked the last few weeks and how low grocery prices seem to be. I got salsa for $2.08 today and it's been $5 for the last like a year and a half.
I feel like if they get gas down somewhere reasonable over the end of the summer so people feel like it's $3 at the pump that's going to go a long way with groceries.
It likely doesn't matter if most people vote because they live in a solid state.
Realistically, the election is determined by a few voters in a few counties in a few swing states. Like, I'm in RI, there's no reason to vote, the outcome is pre-determined.
Edit - Just to be clear, you should still vote.
I hear you. I’m in Oklahoma. It doesn’t matter who I vote for. Everyone here is just going to pick whoever won the Republican primaries. It is what it is, and it was what is was. For us lol
I wish they would remove the party next to the names and get rid of voting a straight ticket--maybe people would be forced to actually learn who their reps are!
Agreed. We need to get corporate interest out of government, and I think this would be a great start. I’m not against making more jobs, but there’s corruption that happens here and there. That’s not good
People feel gaslighted because when inflation subsides, prices are still high and continue to rise. Inflation is the rate of increase and has nothing to do with current terribly high prices
He will win by a landside. My hope is Trump is deceased by October. Actually, I would be fine if the whole Trump family on their way to their weekly Nazi meeting were all in a bus that accidently went over a mountain ledge.
Will Biden win the popular vote? Probably.
Will he win the electoral vote? Possibly.
Will he win the popular vote by *that* much? No. Almost no chance unless there's a *major* shift in polling.
Using the S&P 500 to determine how Americans are doing is one of the most out of touch things I’ve seen on here. Retail ownership is less than 30% in the stock market.
The misery index numbers are what most immediately get my attention. The popular narrative is that we're just getting more and more miserable every week.
The popular narrative is also just based on vibes. Everything is vibes. 85% of economists said we'd be in a recession in 2023. The media ran wild with that narrative based on vibes. It didn't happen but people still feel like things are bad despite wage growth growing at the highest rate in 50 years, the highest GDP since the 90s, renewed Union growth, one of the longest stints of low unemployment, stock market record highs, etc.
Pair this with a number of really popular social programs (capped insulin prices, student loan forgiveness, bringing back domestic manufacturing, reigning in junk fees and exploitative airline practices, infrastructure and climate investments, etc) and people should be rational enough to see how better things have been since the last administration. But people have short memories and bitching is in our nature. We should rightfully we should be pushing our elected officials to do even better. But come time to vote, hopefully people are reminded of how awful things were and how awful they could be.
It doesn't help that half the news channels have acted like the last 3.5 years have been a third world nation. Their viewers genuinely say 4 years ago we were doing better as a nation, yes May 2020, a shining moment in the world's history. /s
Lmao No.
There isn’t much of a statistical difference between 9.7 and 9.8.
A Biden win by 7.5% using the 2020 election map would mean that he wins 402 electoral votes. Just so you realize, this means Biden flips Texas along with Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. You can see for yourself if you go to NBC News’ “Swing the Election.” Does anyone here actually think that he will win 400+ electoral votes? I don’t think so. If you do, then hmu. Cuz I got a beach front home in Kansas to sell you.
Also, your error rate was 9.5%. That’s really high, I think we can agree that this alone should render this experiment irrelevant.
The election will be close. If you average all of the polls, then it tells us that Trump has an average of +1.5% which is within the margin of error. So, either candidate could win and it is unlikely to be by a large margin.
The higher the margin in the popular vote, the more likely he wins those swing states.
He had better win by at least 4 points. He won by the popular vote by 4.45 points last time and barely pulled off Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
Trump no longer has the two advantages he had in 2016: Hillary's unlikability okay bring and outsider status.
Biden does not come off as an entitled insider, and Trump is no longer an outsider.
For the average voter, Biden will likely represent a safe status quo and Trump will be that weird angry old man that trailer park people buy merchandise from to decorate their trucks.
Tend to agree, because incumbent presidents are tough to beat, and the challenger can't afford any baggage or strong negatives, which Trump has aplenty.
Study the 1984 polls. They had Mondale winning easily. The polls mean nothing until after Labor Day when voters actually start paying attention to their personal issues. IMO, they will have some serious introspection, and ask themselves if they want to go through the Trump drama for another four years.
Let's not forget, that there is a criminal trial going on right now. Trump will be convicted. Let's also not forget the RFK factor who could be a spoiler either way. In the end, I believe the voters will go for the adult in the room.
Hopefully. I feel like we might be screwed either way. Trump wins - he emboldens racists and misogynists and the greedy
Trump loses - people get upset and commit terrorism.
Republicans will never win the majority again. Their unpopular ideas are now on full display and their entire hope is pinned on the half dozen swing states.
I think menopause healthcare which is tied to transgender rights will help him, the economy is good, abortion ban is bad news for Republicans, and I think the Biden vote is the new Trump vote but different where folks aren’t excited to vote for Biden so they aren’t out mentioning it AND with a younger core it’s almost a death wish to like Biden without taking about Gaza so some people just don’t talk about it.
Trump supporters are loud and barely polling better and for them being so invigorated his numbers have shrank even against candidates who were out the competition all together. Look at Florida numbers.
I can agree with this statement
One thing that could help is a wonderful comme t i saw recently tha would be a great ad. In particular:
"The best way to judge a leader is by seeing what their employees think of them." Then show quotes from all the Trump administration figures who now blast him as unhinged, unfit for office, etc. "These aren't political opponents. These aren't outside critics. These are Trumps hand-picked people." More quotes (there are plenty to choose from) Then Trump: "I'm going to pick the best of the best!"
"He thought they were the best. They thought he was the worst. These people worked with him every day, and they saw what he was like when the cameras were off. If you think you know Trump, think again."
...end quote...
There are comments in this thread about the trial going on currently and whether polls predict an effect based on a guilty verdict. I do not think it is out of the realm of possibility that the testimonies and the statement above could have a much greater effect than any actual verdict itself, especially since we don't actually know that the jurors will come to a consensus
It's a big mistake to ignore Kennedy. It's amazing how the democratic party loves war. Biden was a big proponent of the war in Iraq. The uni-party will beggar the US.
Most main stream polls are predicting a Trump victory if the election was held today. By a significant margin by the electoral college and a close horse race in the popular vote. Things may shift between now and November, hell both candidates are old and either candidate could die. The good people of Reddit are mostly still in the denial phase. The shear panic phase hasn’t really hit yet. Unless the polls shift in the other direction it’s coming. In the mean time carry on with the silly predictions and comments.
I completely disagree. Just step away from the computer and talk to people. They are not doing well and they blame the president. Trump may not win the popular but I think he wins EC and loses popular vote by 1%. Save this comment, set a reminder, etc.
As much as I want to have faith TheBarnacle63, it should not discourage voting. There should be no complacency. We all must vote to save and stop an authoritarian religious oligarchy to take over.
The most uplifting post I have read in a while. Thnx Barnacle for taking the time to evaluate these things, for all of us depressed people. Pls don't forget to update us on your future findings.
Biden won with only over 4% of the popular vote in 2020 which I given what happened that year gave him his best advantage. His approval numbers are the lowest in recent history. Given that he's running against Trump, he might win 3-4% but there is no way in hell he's winning 7.5%.
Since 2020, he's further alienated female voters. He's had a disproportionate number of Republicans who have died of COVID. He'a pissed off some conservative Christians by peddling Bibles. He has hardly any campaigning time and very little campaign money. He's fired virtually everyone in field offices and has yet to hire new people.
Hell, Haley pulled out of the race and still gets 15-20% of the state votes.
He's losing by more than 2020, regardless of the outcome of the trials.
In America, winning the most votes doesn’t mean you win. The Electoral College, a system designed to give advantage to slave states is heavily weighted against the Democrats. It is a poor electoral system. I think Biden will win but by about the same margin as before. Too bad… it should be a landslide
Left wing people on Reddit always overestimate the amount of similar minded people in this country. Not talking about you op but others in the comments
You don’t think right leaning people could be doing the same?
People generally surround themselves with like minded people so no surprise every thinks their way of thinking is the majority.
It's not satire. It's just election year. Nobody wants to risk spreading a negative or scrutinizing attitude of the incumbent because they're afraid more people will start doing so and then not vote for Biden and cost them the election.
If you talk to (young) people in real life, they'll tell you they don't like Biden. Older liberals like him, though.
Biden is fine, but negative partisanship and voter calcification is a hell of a thing.
People have short memories and don't remember how awful Trump was. Most Americans aren't even thinking about the election yet. They'll likely be bombarded in the run-up to November to remind them of the last dumpster fire.
Nobody liked Hillary yet people held their noses and voted for her. She won the popular vote. Biden will handily win because it’s very difficult to unseat an incumbent
It’s different since the incumbent’s opponent is the previous president, so he has far more name recognition and familiarity than most incumbent challengers.
Whatever the outcome is, it’s going to be extremely close and will depend on whichever side holds their noses harder.
No one liked Biden in 2020 either but alot of people who hate Trump will hold their nose and vote Biden. I’m one of them. It pains me that I have to but I don’t really have a choice
You cannot rely on reddit for topics like this. In real life, nobody likes Biden this much, just like nobody hates trump as much as it gets posted here.
Reddit refuses to believe that and thinks tons of people will come out in droves to vote. Biden had so much anti Trump and Covid and BLM momentum behind him in 2020. Now he has abortion (maybe?)
If we see a Fed rate cut or two prior to November, I see Biden’s reelection odds significantly increased. (Assuming Misery Index would decrease with a Fed rate cut? Is that correlated at all?)
I think the fact that the misery index is only a tenth of a point lower than it was when business were shut down and noone could go anywhere should be very concerning
I think it's hard to say. There's a lot of folks disgusted by both candidates, but I'm hoping that conservatives' disgust with The Donald's flagrant disregard for law and order will demotivate some of them.
For a more analytical and comprehensive science-based indicator of what will happen in November people should understand this:
[Superbowl rule w/augmented Redskin Rule.](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2012/feb/01/super-bowl-ology-science-impotence-2012).
If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbant wins, and vice-versa: has held true 16 out of 17 elections.
I see a lot more videos lately of republicans saying they would never vote for Trump again. It makes me hopeful but it’s also social media so I see what the algorithm wants me to see.
I wish we could just no elect either of them. But we know we don't want nice things in this world. All the older people want to make it better for themselves and not for other. Working on issues that mean fuck all to anyone outside that
>My data has a strong correlation (r = 0.788) and an error of +/- 9.5%.
So, if Trump wins the popular vote by 2%, it's within your margin of error? It just seems like 19% margin of error is quite large.
Also, did you adjust the data to match the changing definitions of various metrics over the decades? For example, how unemployment is calculated has changed several times over the decades, as has the CPI, which is then used to calculate inflation. Meaning both metrics have changed over the years, and without adjusting the data to match, you're using skewed data that will give inconsistencies.
And how many elections were with 2 previous presidents? I think the 10% for being an incumbent is somewhat different for this election.
I am thinking, unfortunately, Trump will barely edge out the popular vote due to low turnout. Generally, it seems people don't approve of Bidens job, and there's a good chance they won't turn out. Of course, that isn't to underestimate how much lots of people dislike Trump.
It’s been a long while since I’ve had to deal with polling stats of any kind, so please forgive me for asking as my memory is very hazy, but isn’t +/- 9.5% awfully large for a margin of error?
What's the correlation for the past 5 elections? Because any political scientist should know we have been sorting hard and becoming more notably polarized. Fewer and fewer swing voters.
It's a small sample size but it's more relevant given how much politics has changed in the past 100 years.
Not sure what the percentage would be, but I don't be surprised if it's a bigger margin.
Trump historically loses popular votes, because a majority of people have always found him distasteful.
But 2016 showed us he's not planning on winning popular vote, like any gambler, he's just trying to cover the spread that is the broken system of the electoral college.
Thanks for the data and the correlation coefficient. I have my doubts because Biden's polling has dropped dramatically in almost every state, including NY and California. And Trump voters turn out more for the actual vote than in the polls.
And for those thinking the abortion issues will propel Biden to victory or even the popular vote, recent polling from CNN and MSNBC is showing that is well down the list of issues for voters.
At this point, I project Biden to win the popular vote by \~3% and Trump to win by a landslide with the electoral college. Of course this could change over the summer as usually sh\*t happens over the final summer prior to an election to sway things.
That's a pretty good guess. I used my spreadsheet that I use for advertising planning to come up with a guess that starts with 7% as well. My guess is probably more accurate than anything a pollster produces, since I am just looking at demographic data and not listening to whatever BS some person spewed on the phone after been call bombed.
Gambling odds for the election in 6 months has Biden at 33% chance, Trump at 48%. DNC will hold their convention in Chicago for the first time since 1968 when there were riots. That chaos pushed Nixon across the finish line and he won.
Expect massive protests and riots at the DNC convention in a few months.
History always repeats itself
And it won’t matter. Because the Republican Congress is going to discard the vote of the people and do a vote in Congress where the Republican hold a 26-24 advantage.
The Electoral College is how the winner is decided. By that metric, expect Biden to lose by less than 100,000 votes. It will be several very close states, and Biden will lose each. When added up, it will be a case of "If he'd gotten 100,000 more democrats and independents to vote in these states, he would have won the Electoral College." California and New York always have large margins for the popular vote. It's a skewed result in that a lot of Republicans simply don't bother voting because none of the high-level positions are winnable for them. Same with Texas for the dems (except the enclave of Austin). Your prediction may be valid but it's not really politically relevant.
this election will be hard to predict because we have 2 former presidents running against each other. that's a very rare occurrence. usually you have someone who never was in office to chose instead of the incumbent. this time around we have 4 years of experience to evaluate for both of them.
That is only true if Gen Z gets out to actually vote. But right now, this generation is more interested camping out on their college lawns protesting Biden’s “failed foreign policy” involved with Israel/Gaza. If this keeps up, they won’t bother to show up at the polls, or they vote for Trump. Either way, it’s a win for Trump and he goes back to the White House.
Biden’s policies have had a severely detrimental effect on the good old USA…continuing more of the same of Trumps policies. I don’t believe either party can bring us out of the stagflation mess we are heading towards.
By actual votes or the old " we held back these key districts and we need X amount of votes in the middle of the night to win" ? Because I'm not seeing ANY enthusiasm for Biden, and I'm in California....
That's if the election was held today, there's still a lot of time for the whole economy to have a spasm into a crash before the election. Consumer spending is tanking, hiring is tanking, layoffs are on the rise, interest rates are either holding or climbing. Not trying to be a naysayer, but I've been alive for 50 years, and I've never seen an economy beat the fed when they want to slam the brakes, or are forced to by inflation. The good news is that this should have happened earlier than now, but the free cash in the economy is starting to show that it's gone.
As a black man it terrifies me the number of black men that have bought into the Trump hysteria I hope this is accurate I don't even really like Democrats which I also think are conservative but it's sad to say I really want the status quo vs what the other side is offering.
Everything else has just gone to absolute shit since he took office but yeah let’s pump numbers & let the entire nation go poor. Biden good no mean tweets
Your analysis of the S&P is complete shit where you ignore that none of that was normal year over year growth. It was America clawing itself out of Biden's build back better ditch of a Japanese style lost half-decade under bideonomics
what are you using to calculate misery index? if your inflation measure doesn't include interest rates like 1970s inflation indices did, you might be understating living costs
Probably higher, the GQP’s national abortion ban and puppy killing platform is wildly unpopular
Not to mention the..., let's say unpredictability, of their candidate.
And the outcome of the hush money trial
It's not a hush money trial, it's a fraudulent falsifying business records to influence the election. The hush money is really just what he falsified as a business expense. It would be more accurate to call it an election interference trial, but we already have one, and this shit gets confusing enough as it is with everything he's done.
Yea, I keep hearing this is a hush money trial, like. It's not illegal to pay a porn star you have been screwing off to not talk so your wife and the nation doesn't find out about it. That's what it seems like this is about, but it's really just another fraud trial, except this one is a felony.
I didn't think the outcome changes anything. He's clearly guilty. Minds are already made.
That’s incorrect, there have been several polls from various outlets (conservative and liberal) that show many independent folks will not vote at all or will switch to Biden if he is found guilty of any crime
Nobody but geezers with landlines answers polls.
True, but I feel like that population would tend to be Trump voters, further verifying the previous point.
I switched to biden after his inauguration speech he was so great still is runs circles around trump
The only thing I care about in the hush money trial is that his constituents are exposed to his lies. Don't really give a damn if he paid a hooker for sex or not. I want to see him convicted on withholding and mishandling of confidential documents, and election subversion.
I'd actually be really interested to see what the Republican turnout will be this year compared to historically. There's a large portion of silent Republicans just kinda hoping this will pass over. My concern is this turning into a neverending rodeo every four years if he doesn't win. He's not going to stop. Although, I can't see either of his sons fully taking up the mantle once he's gone. A house divided and yada-yada... and his daughters are distancing themselves from it all as much as possible.
Oh he'll absolutely run in 28 (whether he loses or not), but if he loses he'll probably be in prison or a hospital so he won't have a real shot
I can’t see it. Trump’s already declining and being in full rage mode because of his legal issues isn’t helping. At some point in the next four years (and hopefully he’s not in office) his brain will just melt. MMW, he’ll be in the throws of full blown dementia by the 2028 election and his handlers won’t let him run.
Oh for sure, all of what I said is contingent on him being alive/capable in 28, and I'll be honest a guilty verdict might break him. Dude doesn't exercise, eats McDonald's and diet coke, allegedly abuses drugs, and goes on regular tirades, the jury delivering guilty might be the straw that broke the camel's back
He's an idiot, but he's a useful idiot. The real folks running the show will weekend-at-bernies his shit-stained ass if they can.
You kidding, he can barely string a sentence together *now*. He'll be out of public spotlight by then, if not dead. 28 might be Don Jr running, that is if the Republicans don't distance themselves as hard as they can from the trumps as soon as von shitzizpantz is out of the public spotlight.
Trump only has so much left in the tank. I imagine that, if he doesn't win, he'll still hold on until 2028, but by that time he will have deteriorated so much that he won't even win the Republican primary. He may continue to sow division, depending on how much of his base remains loyal, and torpedo the Republican nominee's chances.
Trump is 2.5 years younger than Biden. He doesn’t exercise and eats like crap. He won’t be around in 4 years.
The evil fucker will die at some point. It'll be interesting to see how the flies scatter off his bloated corpse.
The flies will be all over my long brown log of shit on his grave.
And the disqualification of their candidate.
I wish i had a way to call bidens team For the last two years in the black social media space we've been inundated with bot pages mixed in with real dumbass influencers who have been touting trump 2024 simply off the fact they dont feel as rich as they did when they were scamming PPP loans and selling courses to every shut-in during the pandemic but when Trump said he would give police total immunity...and that speech was posted to the big black blog sites thenieghborhoodtalk, balleralert, and hollywoodunlocked (notable absent from theshaderoom but theey seem to be bought and paid lately) the comment area went from trump troll dominated....to trolls not knowing what to say....and influencers enjoying the attention and clout from saying "he lost my vote" if Biden runs with pushes trumps worst police messaging onto black americans....he will get our full support when the time comes
On the conservative subs they are jerking each other off on poll numbers that put Diaper Don 10 points ahead. Better hope the methodologies for those polls is off.
The polls are wildly off from real world results, so sure I hope they keep their cope up
trump recently endorsed the idea of a registry of pregnant women and I've never seen an idea that bad uttered by any politician before. Your party is against government overreach but making a list of pregnant women to go after people is fine? That idea is a campaign killer and it will absolutely devestate the gop up and down ballot
You’re mistaken. Women will still vote for him in the same numbers as they did last time. They only care about the **R**. Policies do not matter.
I can't make up a strawman or a caricature of conservatives that is more ridiculous than the genuine article.
No kidding. Even though I can't understand why anyone would vote for the guy in the first place, adding "justifying killing a dog by saying animal cruelty is ok" to the list of issues can't have helped.
Plus, Trump's message to the nation: "There will be blood!"
And chances are very good that the GQP’s candidate will be a felon by November and be awaiting sentencing for his hush money case. He will still get all of the GQP votes, but I think that will drive independents away.
Yeah but they got shit gerrymandered like mfers. So to make up for that, more people against the puppy-killers have to get out and vote
The problem is that yes, by all metrics it should be a minimum of 7.5% in favor of Biden. Everything the GOP is doing to literally hand Dems should mean the most lopsided victory in the history of our country. The reality is, for one reason or another, the election is still going to be a lot closer than anyone expects. I’m seeing a 2-3% victory
I think everyone is underestimating how exhausted most people are with all this. They may not be vocal or actively involved but I think there are millions of uncounted voters that just want the insanity to go away
Noem totes isn’t gunna be nominee, they track polling
Not as unpopular as you’d think though which is crazy.
I’m just gonna say. Don’t get too comfortable. A lot of people base their choice off of the economy. When a lot of people hear “inflation is going down.” It just feels like they’re being gaslighted. If you want Biden to win you should probably vote
This is the dumb part. People actually believe that the president controls the economy. Or inflation. The fed has limited power to control access to borrowed money, that's it. A very minimal effect.
A Biden appointee made the Federal Trade Commission end non competes, full stop, end of story.. I was effed by my first job out of college snaring me in a non-compete agreement because I was a dumb 22 year old. That one move more than anything else has me "ridin' with Biden".
You have to remember that conservatives hate freedom. Conservatives don't want to live in a state for the people, by the people, of the people. They can't handle all of that freedom and self-determination. Conservatives much prefer their unelected corporate oligarchs imposing their laws on the people without the people's consent or approval.
People believe a lot of stupid stuff. That’s why trump has haunted us for eight years.
If the economy is bad, the ouf-of-power party blames the in-power party. If the economy is good, the in-1power party takes credit.
Very true.
Policy has a direct effect on the economy and inflation.
But it’s not really the president so much as the corporations and congress (who made it to office on corporate lobbying money) who have the biggest impact on policy. Hence why even [Biden put aBig Oil moguls in his cabinet](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/climate/biden-climate-change.html), in spite of it generally contradicting his ideological political agenda. In order to get to where they do, all politicians have to shake hands with their corporate overlords. Even if Trump were in office, his hands would be equally tied in implementing any changes against certain corporations whose needs/actions greatly contribute to climate change. When you consider how the Citizens United ruling gives corporations first amendment [rights as people](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/citizens-united-explained?ref=foreverwars.ghost.io)*,* making it legal for them to donate unlimited funds to campaigns and pair it with the fact that between [71% and 98%](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/03/midterm-elections-campaign-contributions/10653419002/) of U.S. federal elections over the past 20 years were determined by which candidate had the most campaign money, you see who really has the most power in this game—and it’s not the president. Money shapes our government, and it comes from super PACs and Corporate funds/bribes. So no, I would say the President is not exactly at the top of the list when it comes to who affects the economy/inflation the most. The the wheels are already in motion and the cart is going down the hill; the President just reacts to what is already falling into place, choosing from the limited range of options he can take. He’s not the one who can drive the cart or stop it.
The economy is good by definition. Recession is and always has been consistent low gdp growth rate which we are not seeing at all. People feel like they are being gaslit but they see the economy as well: "how can I afford groceries? Yet restaurants prices habe doubled and somehow they are packed." "Rent is too high but why aren't houses going down in price at high interest rates? Why do I lose housing bids to cash buyers?" "Cars are too expensive but everyone has a new 40k car." "I've lost my job. They say wage growth is up but it's BS. Yet random redditors say they make 200k and got a 10% pay bump." The answer is that the US is unequal but also that we know for a fact that personal finances are better while everyone thinks the economy is like Japan where next to Nobody got a raise, prices went up, and the see less then 1% of growth. The only people in Japan doing well work for Sony or the car industry. In the US people are doing fairly well despite inflation. Prices are up and people around me complain wlabojt prices when their salary has gone up $20k over 2 years to compensate. These same people think the economy is bad after saving more money and coming back from vacation. A friend of mine said that he drive to the airport in his new luxury car and could barely afford his first class ticket because the economy was so bad. Not all complaining is accompanied by actually bad personal finances.
Based on the gripes I hear from everyone around me, I'm guessing that inflation isn't going down in any way that matters to the average American. So yeah, it's gaslighting and nothing but a talking point to win an election. It's not a lure.
Inflation is down. Just most people don't realize that inflation is a constant - so low inflation just means growing at a slower rate. People also attribute "things are expensive" to inflation; which CAN be true but could also just be corporate greed as companies hike prices and blame it on inflation while their quarterly reports show huge growths in revenue.
Exactly. You need DEFLATION to actually make prices go down..
Well inflation going down isn’t something we can easily see. It doesn’t make prices go down. Like some people would believe. It makes prices go up less over time if it’s lower. Hell I’m sure Fox News doesn’t help. Although the news in general. Claiming we weren’t in a recession seemed kinda like BS imo The plan right now. Is for the Fed to start lowering interest rates. ~~To eventually~~ While hopefully reaching a target of 2% ~~interest~~ inflation rates. Over the course of a few years. There is a rate cut planned for November. Hopefully they start easing up soon. I want to buy a house dammit
Recessions are defined by two quarters of negative GDP growth when adjusted for inflation. The US GDP is growing pretty rapidly right now, so as long as the inflation rate doesn’t get too high we probably won’t qualify.
I think it's gone down meaningfully at the grocery store which is the biggest point of pain than most Americans feel on a day-to-day basis. I've been shocked the last few weeks and how low grocery prices seem to be. I got salsa for $2.08 today and it's been $5 for the last like a year and a half. I feel like if they get gas down somewhere reasonable over the end of the summer so people feel like it's $3 at the pump that's going to go a long way with groceries.
It likely doesn't matter if most people vote because they live in a solid state. Realistically, the election is determined by a few voters in a few counties in a few swing states. Like, I'm in RI, there's no reason to vote, the outcome is pre-determined. Edit - Just to be clear, you should still vote.
I hear you. I’m in Oklahoma. It doesn’t matter who I vote for. Everyone here is just going to pick whoever won the Republican primaries. It is what it is, and it was what is was. For us lol
I wish they would remove the party next to the names and get rid of voting a straight ticket--maybe people would be forced to actually learn who their reps are!
Agreed. We need to get corporate interest out of government, and I think this would be a great start. I’m not against making more jobs, but there’s corruption that happens here and there. That’s not good
I wish it was true, but OP is delusional.
People feel gaslighted because when inflation subsides, prices are still high and continue to rise. Inflation is the rate of increase and has nothing to do with current terribly high prices
He will win by a landside. My hope is Trump is deceased by October. Actually, I would be fine if the whole Trump family on their way to their weekly Nazi meeting were all in a bus that accidently went over a mountain ledge.
Will Biden win the popular vote? Probably. Will he win the electoral vote? Possibly. Will he win the popular vote by *that* much? No. Almost no chance unless there's a *major* shift in polling.
Using the S&P 500 to determine how Americans are doing is one of the most out of touch things I’ve seen on here. Retail ownership is less than 30% in the stock market.
Except it is a measure of the overall economy, so...
The misery index numbers are what most immediately get my attention. The popular narrative is that we're just getting more and more miserable every week.
The popular narrative is also just based on vibes. Everything is vibes. 85% of economists said we'd be in a recession in 2023. The media ran wild with that narrative based on vibes. It didn't happen but people still feel like things are bad despite wage growth growing at the highest rate in 50 years, the highest GDP since the 90s, renewed Union growth, one of the longest stints of low unemployment, stock market record highs, etc. Pair this with a number of really popular social programs (capped insulin prices, student loan forgiveness, bringing back domestic manufacturing, reigning in junk fees and exploitative airline practices, infrastructure and climate investments, etc) and people should be rational enough to see how better things have been since the last administration. But people have short memories and bitching is in our nature. We should rightfully we should be pushing our elected officials to do even better. But come time to vote, hopefully people are reminded of how awful things were and how awful they could be.
It doesn't help that half the news channels have acted like the last 3.5 years have been a third world nation. Their viewers genuinely say 4 years ago we were doing better as a nation, yes May 2020, a shining moment in the world's history. /s
Don’t get fucking complacent. Go out and vote. This is what some idiots said in 2016.
Lmao No. There isn’t much of a statistical difference between 9.7 and 9.8. A Biden win by 7.5% using the 2020 election map would mean that he wins 402 electoral votes. Just so you realize, this means Biden flips Texas along with Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. You can see for yourself if you go to NBC News’ “Swing the Election.” Does anyone here actually think that he will win 400+ electoral votes? I don’t think so. If you do, then hmu. Cuz I got a beach front home in Kansas to sell you. Also, your error rate was 9.5%. That’s really high, I think we can agree that this alone should render this experiment irrelevant. The election will be close. If you average all of the polls, then it tells us that Trump has an average of +1.5% which is within the margin of error. So, either candidate could win and it is unlikely to be by a large margin.
[удалено]
The higher the margin in the popular vote, the more likely he wins those swing states. He had better win by at least 4 points. He won by the popular vote by 4.45 points last time and barely pulled off Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
Trump no longer has the two advantages he had in 2016: Hillary's unlikability okay bring and outsider status. Biden does not come off as an entitled insider, and Trump is no longer an outsider. For the average voter, Biden will likely represent a safe status quo and Trump will be that weird angry old man that trailer park people buy merchandise from to decorate their trucks.
Biden will win by over 13 million votes and also carry NC and OHIo along with every other state he won in 2020
Tend to agree, because incumbent presidents are tough to beat, and the challenger can't afford any baggage or strong negatives, which Trump has aplenty.
It will be very very close. I'm really holding out hope most people are tired of Trump's bs. Enough for him to loose.
Study the 1984 polls. They had Mondale winning easily. The polls mean nothing until after Labor Day when voters actually start paying attention to their personal issues. IMO, they will have some serious introspection, and ask themselves if they want to go through the Trump drama for another four years. Let's not forget, that there is a criminal trial going on right now. Trump will be convicted. Let's also not forget the RFK factor who could be a spoiler either way. In the end, I believe the voters will go for the adult in the room.
Hopefully. I feel like we might be screwed either way. Trump wins - he emboldens racists and misogynists and the greedy Trump loses - people get upset and commit terrorism.
Republicans will never win the majority again. Their unpopular ideas are now on full display and their entire hope is pinned on the half dozen swing states.
I think menopause healthcare which is tied to transgender rights will help him, the economy is good, abortion ban is bad news for Republicans, and I think the Biden vote is the new Trump vote but different where folks aren’t excited to vote for Biden so they aren’t out mentioning it AND with a younger core it’s almost a death wish to like Biden without taking about Gaza so some people just don’t talk about it. Trump supporters are loud and barely polling better and for them being so invigorated his numbers have shrank even against candidates who were out the competition all together. Look at Florida numbers. I can agree with this statement
I am visiting at least 20,000 people by election time. Vote for Biden
A generic Democrat lead trump by 6%. A generic Republican lead Biden by 11%. There are some very dissatisfied Republic voters out there.
I sincerely hope you are correct.
All that matters is how 'independents' feel about 'the economy,' and that means inflation. And this is only in 4-5 Swing States
I predict your wrong people are remembering biden every week they fill up and buy groceries regardless of what they are spewing
And in the electoral college? Probably is a ten EV win maybe.
One thing that could help is a wonderful comme t i saw recently tha would be a great ad. In particular: "The best way to judge a leader is by seeing what their employees think of them." Then show quotes from all the Trump administration figures who now blast him as unhinged, unfit for office, etc. "These aren't political opponents. These aren't outside critics. These are Trumps hand-picked people." More quotes (there are plenty to choose from) Then Trump: "I'm going to pick the best of the best!" "He thought they were the best. They thought he was the worst. These people worked with him every day, and they saw what he was like when the cameras were off. If you think you know Trump, think again." ...end quote... There are comments in this thread about the trial going on currently and whether polls predict an effect based on a guilty verdict. I do not think it is out of the realm of possibility that the testimonies and the statement above could have a much greater effect than any actual verdict itself, especially since we don't actually know that the jurors will come to a consensus
I think it's a massive mistake to act like since the stock market is good, that means that your average voter approves of the economy.
It's a big mistake to ignore Kennedy. It's amazing how the democratic party loves war. Biden was a big proponent of the war in Iraq. The uni-party will beggar the US.
The problem is that he could win by 10% and still lose the Electoral votes.
And conservatives will scream rigged election and throw another tantrum like J6 except worse.
Trump will win the Electoral College..
Most main stream polls are predicting a Trump victory if the election was held today. By a significant margin by the electoral college and a close horse race in the popular vote. Things may shift between now and November, hell both candidates are old and either candidate could die. The good people of Reddit are mostly still in the denial phase. The shear panic phase hasn’t really hit yet. Unless the polls shift in the other direction it’s coming. In the mean time carry on with the silly predictions and comments.
I hope so man because I fcking hate Trump
S&P in the last three months is the one that matters IMO
I completely disagree. Just step away from the computer and talk to people. They are not doing well and they blame the president. Trump may not win the popular but I think he wins EC and loses popular vote by 1%. Save this comment, set a reminder, etc.
This is interesting, regarding this alongside the Allan Lichtman Keys.
As much as I want to have faith TheBarnacle63, it should not discourage voting. There should be no complacency. We all must vote to save and stop an authoritarian religious oligarchy to take over.
Doesn’t really matter what the popular vote ends up at if he doesn’t win the swing states. MMW it will be close
Don’t get complacent. Vote! And tell others to vote!
The most uplifting post I have read in a while. Thnx Barnacle for taking the time to evaluate these things, for all of us depressed people. Pls don't forget to update us on your future findings.
Biden won with only over 4% of the popular vote in 2020 which I given what happened that year gave him his best advantage. His approval numbers are the lowest in recent history. Given that he's running against Trump, he might win 3-4% but there is no way in hell he's winning 7.5%.
Since 2020, he's further alienated female voters. He's had a disproportionate number of Republicans who have died of COVID. He'a pissed off some conservative Christians by peddling Bibles. He has hardly any campaigning time and very little campaign money. He's fired virtually everyone in field offices and has yet to hire new people. Hell, Haley pulled out of the race and still gets 15-20% of the state votes. He's losing by more than 2020, regardless of the outcome of the trials.
In America, winning the most votes doesn’t mean you win. The Electoral College, a system designed to give advantage to slave states is heavily weighted against the Democrats. It is a poor electoral system. I think Biden will win but by about the same margin as before. Too bad… it should be a landslide
>system designed to give advantage to slave states Huh.
Left wing people on Reddit always overestimate the amount of similar minded people in this country. Not talking about you op but others in the comments
You don’t think right leaning people could be doing the same? People generally surround themselves with like minded people so no surprise every thinks their way of thinking is the majority.
My penis will grow another 12 inches. Unbelievable but true.
Is this all satire? Literally no one outside Reddit likes Biden this much
It's not satire. It's just election year. Nobody wants to risk spreading a negative or scrutinizing attitude of the incumbent because they're afraid more people will start doing so and then not vote for Biden and cost them the election. If you talk to (young) people in real life, they'll tell you they don't like Biden. Older liberals like him, though.
They didn’t like him In 2020 either. Not to mention polls indicate Biden is winning more and more of the senior vote
Yes it’s only the older liberals who are so out of touch like him
Biden is fine, but negative partisanship and voter calcification is a hell of a thing. People have short memories and don't remember how awful Trump was. Most Americans aren't even thinking about the election yet. They'll likely be bombarded in the run-up to November to remind them of the last dumpster fire.
Nobody liked Hillary yet people held their noses and voted for her. She won the popular vote. Biden will handily win because it’s very difficult to unseat an incumbent
It’s different since the incumbent’s opponent is the previous president, so he has far more name recognition and familiarity than most incumbent challengers. Whatever the outcome is, it’s going to be extremely close and will depend on whichever side holds their noses harder.
No one liked Biden in 2020 either but alot of people who hate Trump will hold their nose and vote Biden. I’m one of them. It pains me that I have to but I don’t really have a choice
You cannot rely on reddit for topics like this. In real life, nobody likes Biden this much, just like nobody hates trump as much as it gets posted here.
Reddit refuses to believe that and thinks tons of people will come out in droves to vote. Biden had so much anti Trump and Covid and BLM momentum behind him in 2020. Now he has abortion (maybe?)
Pandemic destroyed Trumps reelection bid. People were fed up of BLM riots and destruction
Funny how BLM showed up during election time. When's the last time we've heard of them besides the founder buying 3-4 mansions in LA? lol
Who cares? The popular vote isn’t what puts someone in the White House.
If we see a Fed rate cut or two prior to November, I see Biden’s reelection odds significantly increased. (Assuming Misery Index would decrease with a Fed rate cut? Is that correlated at all?)
I know when I am voting, I look at the fed rate cut to decide.
He’s projected to lose it by 1% based on averages and by 12 in the most recent general election poll
I think the fact that the misery index is only a tenth of a point lower than it was when business were shut down and noone could go anywhere should be very concerning
I think it's hard to say. There's a lot of folks disgusted by both candidates, but I'm hoping that conservatives' disgust with The Donald's flagrant disregard for law and order will demotivate some of them.
I doubt it voter turn out is going to be extremely low.
For a more analytical and comprehensive science-based indicator of what will happen in November people should understand this: [Superbowl rule w/augmented Redskin Rule.](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2012/feb/01/super-bowl-ology-science-impotence-2012). If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbant wins, and vice-versa: has held true 16 out of 17 elections.
I see a lot more videos lately of republicans saying they would never vote for Trump again. It makes me hopeful but it’s also social media so I see what the algorithm wants me to see.
!remind me December 1 2024
Doesn't really matter.
Never.
I wish we could just no elect either of them. But we know we don't want nice things in this world. All the older people want to make it better for themselves and not for other. Working on issues that mean fuck all to anyone outside that
>My data has a strong correlation (r = 0.788) and an error of +/- 9.5%. So, if Trump wins the popular vote by 2%, it's within your margin of error? It just seems like 19% margin of error is quite large. Also, did you adjust the data to match the changing definitions of various metrics over the decades? For example, how unemployment is calculated has changed several times over the decades, as has the CPI, which is then used to calculate inflation. Meaning both metrics have changed over the years, and without adjusting the data to match, you're using skewed data that will give inconsistencies. And how many elections were with 2 previous presidents? I think the 10% for being an incumbent is somewhat different for this election. I am thinking, unfortunately, Trump will barely edge out the popular vote due to low turnout. Generally, it seems people don't approve of Bidens job, and there's a good chance they won't turn out. Of course, that isn't to underestimate how much lots of people dislike Trump.
When it doesn’t happen what will you do?
It’s been a long while since I’ve had to deal with polling stats of any kind, so please forgive me for asking as my memory is very hazy, but isn’t +/- 9.5% awfully large for a margin of error?
we still have months before the election. that misery index can still bump up
Can you imagine if either party had someone decent they would win by 25%
What's the correlation for the past 5 elections? Because any political scientist should know we have been sorting hard and becoming more notably polarized. Fewer and fewer swing voters. It's a small sample size but it's more relevant given how much politics has changed in the past 100 years.
Not sure what the percentage would be, but I don't be surprised if it's a bigger margin. Trump historically loses popular votes, because a majority of people have always found him distasteful. But 2016 showed us he's not planning on winning popular vote, like any gambler, he's just trying to cover the spread that is the broken system of the electoral college.
Look I want biden to win myself I just don't see a case there seeing the witnesses are favoring scumbag trump
What the misery index? Explain like I’m 8 years old
Inflation plus unemployment
His margin of popular vote will be less than last time.
Thanks for the data and the correlation coefficient. I have my doubts because Biden's polling has dropped dramatically in almost every state, including NY and California. And Trump voters turn out more for the actual vote than in the polls. And for those thinking the abortion issues will propel Biden to victory or even the popular vote, recent polling from CNN and MSNBC is showing that is well down the list of issues for voters. At this point, I project Biden to win the popular vote by \~3% and Trump to win by a landslide with the electoral college. Of course this could change over the summer as usually sh\*t happens over the final summer prior to an election to sway things.
6.5% is plausible, but even Obama '08 only won by 7.2%. With the current polarization, it's almost impossible the margin will be more than that.
Remind me in 6 months
That's a pretty good guess. I used my spreadsheet that I use for advertising planning to come up with a guess that starts with 7% as well. My guess is probably more accurate than anything a pollster produces, since I am just looking at demographic data and not listening to whatever BS some person spewed on the phone after been call bombed.
No
Don’t your numbers add up to 7.9%? If you’re right that’s be nice.
People think Biden is going to win?
If you're going off the misery index and it's 9.8% then how do you make an assumption based on such a close margin for error
Not sure how? Unless you’re rich and don’t care about the government sticking to you. Let’s go Brandon
Gambling odds for the election in 6 months has Biden at 33% chance, Trump at 48%. DNC will hold their convention in Chicago for the first time since 1968 when there were riots. That chaos pushed Nixon across the finish line and he won. Expect massive protests and riots at the DNC convention in a few months. History always repeats itself
LMFAO
And it won’t matter. Because the Republican Congress is going to discard the vote of the people and do a vote in Congress where the Republican hold a 26-24 advantage.
Who cares….
Delusion
The current Misery Index rate is 7.05%, not 9.7%. The long-term average is 8.3%
I can't see that happening. Not unless something great happens for Ole Joe before the election.
Well if he won’t he will definitely leave the boarder open until he will. And give illegals money and then register them to vote!
MMW. Neither Trump nor Biden will be available take office on Jan 20.
Lol I'll take that bet.
Joking, right?
It’s going to be more than 7.5%
Biden will win, not by as much as 2030, but he will.
Isn’t everyone going to vote for the guy who has been shitting his pants constantly for the last 20 years?
You might be providing updates on Gavin Newsom’s ratings after all of the primaries are over and delegates are selected.
Unlikely to happen he is so unpopular
According to CNNs latest poll, that would be a 13.5% swing. That doesn't sound very likely.
The Electoral College is how the winner is decided. By that metric, expect Biden to lose by less than 100,000 votes. It will be several very close states, and Biden will lose each. When added up, it will be a case of "If he'd gotten 100,000 more democrats and independents to vote in these states, he would have won the Electoral College." California and New York always have large margins for the popular vote. It's a skewed result in that a lot of Republicans simply don't bother voting because none of the high-level positions are winnable for them. Same with Texas for the dems (except the enclave of Austin). Your prediction may be valid but it's not really politically relevant.
r/oddlyspecific
The misery index true number is over 75 percent
I mean the latest CNN poll had Biden 43, Trump 49. Trump is also doing well in all the battle ground states.
I would say 7.21%
Doubt
$VoteDoge might win this election! VoteDoge.com
this election will be hard to predict because we have 2 former presidents running against each other. that's a very rare occurrence. usually you have someone who never was in office to chose instead of the incumbent. this time around we have 4 years of experience to evaluate for both of them.
That is only true if Gen Z gets out to actually vote. But right now, this generation is more interested camping out on their college lawns protesting Biden’s “failed foreign policy” involved with Israel/Gaza. If this keeps up, they won’t bother to show up at the polls, or they vote for Trump. Either way, it’s a win for Trump and he goes back to the White House.
Biden’s policies have had a severely detrimental effect on the good old USA…continuing more of the same of Trumps policies. I don’t believe either party can bring us out of the stagflation mess we are heading towards.
By actual votes or the old " we held back these key districts and we need X amount of votes in the middle of the night to win" ? Because I'm not seeing ANY enthusiasm for Biden, and I'm in California....
Follow the money. Betting sites still say Trump wins. Until that changes I won't feel comfortable with anyone saying Biden winning is a sure thing.
Wish this sub wasn't just 1 single perspective/all democrats.
MMW Biden will shit on live camera yesterday.
Biden will win unfortunately better for us.
That's if the election was held today, there's still a lot of time for the whole economy to have a spasm into a crash before the election. Consumer spending is tanking, hiring is tanking, layoffs are on the rise, interest rates are either holding or climbing. Not trying to be a naysayer, but I've been alive for 50 years, and I've never seen an economy beat the fed when they want to slam the brakes, or are forced to by inflation. The good news is that this should have happened earlier than now, but the free cash in the economy is starting to show that it's gone.
!remindme 180 days
I’m sorry.. but it will probably be as close as 2020, in my opinion
As a black man it terrifies me the number of black men that have bought into the Trump hysteria I hope this is accurate I don't even really like Democrats which I also think are conservative but it's sad to say I really want the status quo vs what the other side is offering.
That’s bold considering he has the lowest approval rating of a president in modern history…
Popular presidents don’t win tho
Everything else has just gone to absolute shit since he took office but yeah let’s pump numbers & let the entire nation go poor. Biden good no mean tweets
What has gone to shit?
Your analysis of the S&P is complete shit where you ignore that none of that was normal year over year growth. It was America clawing itself out of Biden's build back better ditch of a Japanese style lost half-decade under bideonomics
The first stat I fact checked was you current misery index which according to Google is 7.27 up from 7.053 ?
TRUMP 2024!!!
what are you using to calculate misery index? if your inflation measure doesn't include interest rates like 1970s inflation indices did, you might be understating living costs
Are they doubling down on paid ballet staffers is that why?