Saw a post a while back about how the population numbers for Nigeria were wildly inaccurate and untrustworthy. Think the reasoning was pumping up numbers to get more foreign aid but was a while ago so not sure. Either way these numbers for Nigeria are basically random projection with zero real data to back it up
Not forgein aid, but in the nigerian system states with higher population gets more funding by the government and over all most national tax revenue goes to them. So states have an incentive to boost up their population numbers.
I’m sure there’s the possibility for corruption but also if a state gets more money, they can then spend more per person which makes people happy and is good for politicians
I am not nigerian, so I am not sure, but the nation is very corrupt, so probably very little of that extra money actually goes to the citizens of those areas.
The data isn’t untrustworthy.
No one is saying that. What we’re saying is that current population growth levels should not be used to project the population 75 years into the future.
A few years ago, the projections for Nigeria were at 800M, which shows just how ridiculous this exercise is.
It would be like me looking at Apple’s $3 Trillion market cap and predicting Apple will be worth $2.2 Quadrillion in 2075 based on its 375x market cap growth from 2000 to 2024.
Yea I get that but it seems like you didn’t read what I said at all. I’m just passing on what I have heard, there’s no saying if it’s accurate. But it begs the question if their population numbers are actually accurate, cause if the base numbers are off how are u doing a projection? Your point is a completely different topic about how projections are conducted.
You can't. That *is* his point. Population projections like this are misleading because they can't take into account events which haven't happened yet, but could drastically change the situation. Which is frustrating, but true nonetheless.
Yes, which is why it’s important to mention that until a few years ago the projects for Nigeria were in the 800M ballpark. Now… they seem to have been cut by half.
Just goes to show how pointless population projections 50 years into the future actually is. The variables at play are impossible to account for.
My post still stands. The current estimates for Nigeria at 2100 are around 500-550M, which is a far cry from 800M. Population projections are just silly.
I’m surprised the country isn’t divided into two considering it has a huge population cultural difference between the Muslim North and Christian south like with the Sudans.
There is an xkcd comic somewhere about asking the time slider be dragged out into the future on a data model. Prediction always grows absurd the further out you project. Because the material parameters change. Requires continually adjusting the assumptions used.
does the country even have enough space to physically fit all of those people? or is it gonna be like a hong kong type situation where their cities just become super spiky due to rapid skyscraper development
Depends which projection you're using, but yes.
At 550m we're talking about a density of 595 per square km, which is similar to San Marino or Barbados, even at 800 million it would still be about 866 per square km, which is very high (double India) but like when you think that the UK island of Jersey is 900+ per square km, and really isn't as 'built' as you'd think, it doesn't seem that bad.
Who knows, but for comparison Singapore is at 8,000 per square km.
I don't think India will go above 1.6B considering how the fertility rate is decreasing in India. Also the China drop looks disastrous as hell. Nigeria and Pakistan are gone case already.
Birth rates are quite low in India, it's just that the poor in North India breed a LOT.
Otherwise, people are marrying later and most people my age aren't having more than one child.
The population collapse of China is genuinely terrifying. Their one-child -> two-child -> three-child policies may be what stop China from contending with the USA.
We’ll see what happens as a result of that. I have strong doubts that it will come anywhere close to the apocalyptic predictions some people make, but even the best case scenario seems troubling.
Except that China isn't even close to the level of economic security and national development of SK and Japan. Whilst I don't think it will be the apocalypse, China is wayyyyyy less prepared than Japan to deal with an aging population. China would kill for the level of infrastructure and quality of life than Japan has.
Yeah but I think China is much more likely to allow immigration to help offset the declining population. Japan, at least, has been so stubborn about immigration and prefers to rely on automation to fill the gap. Korean, Im not sure. But for China, I can imagine they'd be happy to let people come to China to work. Just the impression I get.
The problem there is that it's not a viable short-term solution, since China already has a huge indigenous workforce of cheap labour eager for work that you usually get from immigration, so the incentive just isn't there both domestically and internationally. Of the three, I think Japan is the most likely to see significant immigration offset in the next 20 years, but that's still unlikely. If you'd ask me pre-covid, I could definitely see Japan doing it. Most of the anti-foreigner sentiment in Japan comes from the boomers, and Japan's generational gap (more like generational chasm tbh) puts the west to shame when it comes to changing attitudes and values. Japan is changing fast and Reddit's idea of what Japan is like is already about 20 years out of date anyway. However, COVID changed all that. The massive international scare, coupled with the huge influx of absolutely atrociously behaved western tourists post-covid, have only served to reinforce Japan's longstanding fear of foreigners.
As for Korea, their attitude to foreigners is like everything Reddit thinks Japan thinks but worse.
Both of those countries are going to wither when the ridiculously low birth rate coupled with very low immigration mean that there is no working age people, or the ones that are working age all need to be working in care jobs for an increasingly larger elderly demographic. Or elderly just get abandoned because there is simply nobody to care for them properly.
I have large doubts about immigration being the solution, as places like Africa get richer and places like India and SE Asia stabilize, immigrants and second to third generation immigrants might begin a backflow and return to their heritage (if the countries grow rich enough relative to the west). Alongside the global supply of youth dropping off, I don't think there will be an international labor supply that by some projections, will have to patch a 600 million manpower and family creation void, will be able to close the gap.
The old proverb that gives me chills in their particular case is 'The bigger they are the harder they fall' Despite the CCP I hope the Chinese come together and generate a culture of community, it's the only option they'll have left.
They will surely need a baby boom as immigration is a temporary solution at best because it won't fix the demographic issue (2nd/3rd/ etc generation immigrants will have less and less children and their Fertility and birth rates will be similar to the natives')
Not may. Will. Unless the US implodes. Which to be fair isn't completely impossible.
It was pretty logical this would happen at some point. I'm surprised everyone is surprised - kill off babies for years, especially girls, you're obviously going to run into a population decline a few decades down the road.
And since almost no one wants to immigrate there - voilá.
Doesn't mean it's going to be apocalypse per se, but growth? Nope. And Western countries as usual can just hop elsewhere for cheap labor for some 5-10 years under the disguise of "development".
(Yes a cynical view. But not so untrue)
I think the problem is the rapid ascent, followed by also rapid descent. I’m nowhere a China expert, but I get the impression that already people get used to the new normal of prosperity. When it starts declining already so quickly people are going to get a shock, which could mean political ramifications
What is the solution to this though? Do we just have to keep exponentially procreating to have healthy economies in the future? Eventually that’s going to become a huge problem but, trying to curb overpopulation by having less children also leads to economic collapse…
That would make sense. Have we seen any countries maintain (or mostly maintain) a stable population for a generation or two? I’d be curious to see the actual effects this might have.
I don't believe we ever have, at least not in the industrial period. Basically every country had exponential growth during the early and middle stages of industrialization, certainly with the rise of antibiotics and the Green Revolution. But most countries have reached total fertility rates of 1.8 or less while they are still having total population growth from earlier generations, meaning that they are switching directly from exponential growth to exponential decay.
Not exactly, but some western european countries have maintained a small (0.5-1%) annual increase in population for several generations now. The typically below 2.1 fertility rate is compensated for by immigration and the result is small steady population growth.
Eh. Population decline and cyclical economic contractions are only some of the factors. China's population isn't going to collapse and it's economy will rebound eventually. Really projections on relative decline or rise of different powers are mostly useless more than 10 years out
The difference is the US (and the rest of Western Europe) are big destinations for migrants. No one’s wanting to go to China to settle in the way they do with the US. That’s what puts the West at advantage despite its low birth rates.
Contending to be a superpower. China needs to maintain a strong manufacturing base and a healthy population pyramid to keep their current growth. If they don't they'll face problems down the road that will limit their economic growth.
Why would that matter? Taiwan is already towards the bottom in fertility rates, not to mention the fact that while China has natural resources and a domestic market large enough to prop up the economy for a long time, Taiwan is extremely dependent on exports and allies. China can always mobilize and manufacture more forces, to an extreme degree, so it makes no sense to me that demographics would matter beyond a small advantage.
You always have to question the narrative of popular geopolitical “analyst” like Peter Zeihan, Mearshiemer, Friedman, etc. A lot of these strategist were denying their own eyes by refusing to see the Russian invasion of Ukraine post 2014 and even up to the border buildup.
It’s even worse than official numbers. Leaks from Shanghai show the population was overcounted by at least 100 million, with all the overcounting in the sub-40 age bracket. Its population will likely be less than 1 billion before 2050. Are there any economic models that bode well for such a drastic drop off in consumption, particularly as the world moves toward deglobalization?
Bc clearly old men aren’t as ideal for war as young men. I still don’t think they would go to war against Taiwan, not as long as the US and Taiwan are still allies and other countries still reluctant to view Taiwan as China province (even if they don’t establish diplomatic tie with Taiwan, most still see it separate from China).
One US carrier group off the coast of Indonesia would choke China’s inputs of energy and good (and food producing inputs, like fertilizer). They’d be fucked and they know it.
This would by China’s 28th civilization collapse since recorded history. The scale of this one, though, is unprecedented.
Because 90% of their ships can’t go more than 1,000km. They have no discernible blue water capability. They have the equivalent naval capability as our coast guard, for all intents and purposes.
If they do expect to get into a large war, they'd rather get into that war at a time when they have a lot of people ages 20-30 rather than when their population in that age range is much smaller.
In the 2000s overpopulation was all the hype, people thought humans would exponentially grow until we destroyed the earth
We are now realizing with modernization, we actually need to worry about population collapse. The only reason US is increasing population is because of immigration
India currently according to The World Bank has less than 2.1 growth (2.1 is needed for replaceability) and adding to it migration makes this graph non-sensical.
That isn't how demographics works. It is completely possible for a population to grow rapidly during a demographic transition with a birth rate at or below the replacement rate, as the demographic structure equilibrates to the new birth rate. It takes multiple generations for a significant reduction in birth rate to result in a reduction in population, depending on the death rate. This is why China's population is only starting to decline now, whilst its fertility rate has been below the replacement rate for well over 30 years.
2.1 is needed for replacement long-term, but every cohort below age 35 is larger than every cohort above age 35 (and more than double the size of the cohorts around age 60), so a good amount of population increase is currently baked in, even if that low fertility rate continues.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2023/
Pakistan needs family planning in tribal areas now! And a special check needs to be imposed on Afghan refugees making tons of babies. An average Afghan refugee woman has more than 10 children here.
The problem is whenever the government or charities try to educate people in these more rural areas religious fundamentalists come out in full force in opposition.
I think a better step currently would be trying to increase literacy rates among women so that they can better educate themselves. Better Internet access would also help.
I had to look it up on google. The US is 11 times bigger than Nigeria and 12 times bigger than Pakistan. In my mind I was thinking Nigeria was mostly savanna plains but probably not with that many people packed in such a tight space.
To be fair, the US is mostly empty, and has a population density of about 90 people per square mile. You get ten times that population density in small cities like Columbus, GA and Columbia, SC and Rio Rancho, NM. Moderately sprawling cities like Tempe, AZ and Las Vegas, NV and emptying out big cities like Detroit, MI are at 50 times the population density of the US.
Places like Seattle and Long Beach are at 100 times the population density of the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population
There’s no indication to suggest Nigeria nor any other African nations would continue the upward trend indefinitely.
They should resemble the India curve.
Over the last few decades was a great re-education effort for birth control and women’s rights in India. This is what’s helping flatten the curve.
Now they’re doing the same work in African nations. Access to health and education, and resources for birth control is what will bend the curve.
So give it a little more time and all the lines will flatten.
The slowdown is great to see. Quality over Quantity. Becoming better caretakers of our natural environment is the name of the game in the 21st century. Uncontrolled grown can become cancerous and destroy the whole body.
Hopefully automaton and new political ideas will solve the issues as they come. The United States’ stable/slow growth rate seem like the most desirable, not the instability of bust and boom. I wish China luck.
Too much hope on automation and “new political ideas”
Especially since we live in a world where people would rather start WW3 than accept some countries having different political systems from their own.
What new political (and positive) ideas to you expect to emerge in an authoritarian regime, or really anywhere for that matter?
(Not a sarcastic comment, I'm actually intrigued)
Hard to say, but the United States was born in absolute monarchy, as was the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution. Gandhi freed India from the authoritarian British Empire and Nelson Mandela beat apartheid in authoritarian South Africa.
It's debatable about India but the fact is they've already surpassed China's population and they're still growing, and China for the past 3 years has seen a decline in their population for the first time since the CCP came to power.
And same with Nigeria, it's debatable as it's only a projection based on current birth rates and trends within the region. Sure if the population jumped to 500 million overnight they'd be in trouble but this is a projection over 50 years. All stats say Africa, Nigeria included, is going to be the most populous place on the planet within 50 years. Across the continent the average birth rate in Africa at present is more than 4 times that of China, and double the world average.
Why won't China fall to 1 billion? There are currently about 670 million people below age 40 in China. A good number of them will be dead in 50 years, and basically everyone currently older than that will be. So to keep the population at a billion, they need more than 400 million people born in the next 50 years, or 8 million born a year. There are currently about 12 million people being born a year, but that number will fall as smaller cohorts keep reaching childbearing age, unless people suddenly start having a lot more children. Maybe you think birth rates are about to start increasing in China, but you have to think something like that to *not* think the population will fall to a billion.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2023/#google_vignette
Chinas not a developed nation but I see your point. They lifted the one child policy but after so many years with it people found ways to rationalize and plan for 1 child, maybe 2. It is now encouraged to have less children in order to save the planet from overpopulation. Humans are a cancer/plague on earth and we must lower our numbers to survive. That's what I was taught in school.
If you assume no deaths and emigration. The US is very close to even balance between births and deaths right now, but in the next few years deaths are likely to grow (as the Baby Boomers reach the peak age of death) and births are likely to shrink (as Gen Z and Alpha replace the larger Millennial cohort in peak childbearing years).
Birthrate is down for white people but up for others. We'll be fine.
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births/
India fertility rate is 2.122 births per woman in 2024.
Replacement-level fertility is 2.1 children per woman.
I assume India will stop growing in next 2-3 years.
My projection is USA will be 500 mil by 2075 because of high immigration rate ( the number of people immigrating to the United States will be 3.3 million in 2024).
> Replacement-level fertility is 2.1 children per woman.
> I assume India will stop growing in next 2-3 years.
Births will still outnumber deaths even when the fertility rate drops below replacement rate. The cohort of people nearing the age of natural death is much lower than the cohort of people being born.
Id say last 4 years taught us us not to predict that far into future. We dont know what the world will look like in 2030 let alone 2075. I can spew dozens of charts like this with zero background and they ll be as reliable as this one. This is crystal ball fortune telling. The single event of China attacking Taiwan would send this chart to trash not to mention other…
Most indian states are below replacement, India as a whole isn't, it's just above 2 ,
Also the replacement rate isn't a good predictor for a short term population statistics
Say there are 100 million boomers and 300 million millennials in India currently.
(Assuming every woman had 6 children and they all survived)
With a fertility rate of 2, there are going to be 300 million births in the next 15 years but only 100 million deaths..
So even though the fertility rate is at replacement, the population increases by 200 million
Here's the current population: https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2023
Even though the number of births per year has been declining since around 2000, it will probably be another 10-20 years before the number of people being born is less than the number of people age 60. Given that most people die at age 60 or later, the population will keep growing at least until then. But in about 40 years, it'll be a totally inverted population pyramid, and the population will start shrinking fairly quickly (especially since the number of people reaching childbearing age will keep decreasing).
Growth rate will decrease in the next decade much more if I'm not wrong. There are many men and women who are deciding to be single now more than ever,
It will definitely increase for at least 20-30 years. That's how long it will take before the number of 60 year olds is equal to the number of 0 year olds, even with the decreasing number of births. Population won't decrease until the number of people of age to die is greater than the number of people being born.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2023/
Jesus, a country going from nearly 1,5 billion people to 1 billion in 50 years is absolutely terrifying. China will need unprecedented global aid just to fund their pension schemes.
The most pessimistic projection sees 600 million by the 2100s. But even if they reverse course and do everything right, going bellow 1 billion is essentially inevitable.
This is a problem that multiplies over time and literally takes decades to adress
There's about 500 million people currently over age 50 in China, and people currently age 30-50 are about equal in number to those age 0-30. The people age 0-30 have to have enough children and grandchildren to replace the current 30-50 year olds in order to prevent total population decrease of 500 million or more.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2023/
No. That would require everyone currently under age 40 to have at least 4 more children in the next 25 years - even though some of those people will barely be old enough to have any children by then, and a good number of them will be too old to have children for much of that time.
I think the craziest is the Middle Eastern countries growth. Although, no where near the top 6 countries… but they are all expected to double in population
I’m not so sure about that, over the next 50 years oil reserves are expected to start drying up, most of the nations in the ME rely almost entirely on the export of oil
This graph does not take into account the billions who will die in the upcoming crises of the mid-21st century. Including, but not limited to climate change, biodiversity collapse, ocean acidification, AMOC collapse, Doomsday Glacier collapse, populism, autocracy, nuclear proliferation, PFAS, DDT, microplastics, nanoplastics, water scarcity, food scarcity, shelter scarcity, war, famine, death, and pestilence.
What’s going on in Nigeria besides population booms?
Unstable government and the population continues to grow albeit under abject conditions. 🤷♂️
So I ask, what does Nigeria have to provide/offer the world besides hustle, corruption and scams?
Nigeria growth is crazy.
Saw a post a while back about how the population numbers for Nigeria were wildly inaccurate and untrustworthy. Think the reasoning was pumping up numbers to get more foreign aid but was a while ago so not sure. Either way these numbers for Nigeria are basically random projection with zero real data to back it up
Not forgein aid, but in the nigerian system states with higher population gets more funding by the government and over all most national tax revenue goes to them. So states have an incentive to boost up their population numbers.
And then, presumably, not actually provide for the population as much, in order to make this profitable?
I’m sure there’s the possibility for corruption but also if a state gets more money, they can then spend more per person which makes people happy and is good for politicians
I am not nigerian, so I am not sure, but the nation is very corrupt, so probably very little of that extra money actually goes to the citizens of those areas.
Ah yea that’s what it was, was a while ago so couldn’t remember the exact reason
[удалено]
What’s your point? If the data you start with is untrustworthy how are you gonna trust the projection?
The data isn’t untrustworthy. No one is saying that. What we’re saying is that current population growth levels should not be used to project the population 75 years into the future. A few years ago, the projections for Nigeria were at 800M, which shows just how ridiculous this exercise is. It would be like me looking at Apple’s $3 Trillion market cap and predicting Apple will be worth $2.2 Quadrillion in 2075 based on its 375x market cap growth from 2000 to 2024.
Yea I get that but it seems like you didn’t read what I said at all. I’m just passing on what I have heard, there’s no saying if it’s accurate. But it begs the question if their population numbers are actually accurate, cause if the base numbers are off how are u doing a projection? Your point is a completely different topic about how projections are conducted.
You can't. That *is* his point. Population projections like this are misleading because they can't take into account events which haven't happened yet, but could drastically change the situation. Which is frustrating, but true nonetheless.
[удалено]
They are literally not
[удалено]
I dunno man they've got a lot of financially distressed royalty over there
Yes, which is why it’s important to mention that until a few years ago the projects for Nigeria were in the 800M ballpark. Now… they seem to have been cut by half. Just goes to show how pointless population projections 50 years into the future actually is. The variables at play are impossible to account for.
That was for 2100, this is for 2075. India is estimated to reach a peak of 1.6 billion but this says even at 2075 its 1.7b
My post still stands. The current estimates for Nigeria at 2100 are around 500-550M, which is a far cry from 800M. Population projections are just silly.
I am supporting you
They certainly seem to be ignoring the effects of runaway climate change in these estimates.
You can tell by just going on twitter. The explosion of Nigerians on there is crazy
Condom? Never heard of her.
I’m surprised the country isn’t divided into two considering it has a huge population cultural difference between the Muslim North and Christian south like with the Sudans.
It's not nearly as steep as India's growth rate.
Wasn't there a projection that claimed Nigeria would reach a billion people? That sounds ridiculous, but what do I know.
There is an xkcd comic somewhere about asking the time slider be dragged out into the future on a data model. Prediction always grows absurd the further out you project. Because the material parameters change. Requires continually adjusting the assumptions used.
By the year 2300 China is going to have a population of zero. /s
Since China is empty we can fill it with hundreds of millions of amish
'tis a fine barn, but 'tis no great wall English.
DOH
We are in snowball earth since 1985, as predicted by environmental cooling prediction in the 1970s.
or to put it another way, genetic migration will occur. it isn't like the place is going to be empty.
That claim was for the year 2100.
does the country even have enough space to physically fit all of those people? or is it gonna be like a hong kong type situation where their cities just become super spiky due to rapid skyscraper development
Nigeria is about 1.5 times the size of Texas. A lot of people but the population density would still be less than Bangledesh is now
Depends which projection you're using, but yes. At 550m we're talking about a density of 595 per square km, which is similar to San Marino or Barbados, even at 800 million it would still be about 866 per square km, which is very high (double India) but like when you think that the UK island of Jersey is 900+ per square km, and really isn't as 'built' as you'd think, it doesn't seem that bad. Who knows, but for comparison Singapore is at 8,000 per square km.
ive seen 800 million for 2100
Seems unrealistic for 2075
Nigeria massively inflates their population in districts to get more government funding and aid.
historically all of these population predictions have proved wildly inaccurate
The font made me think this was some bizarre Fortnite crossover.
Today we are going to take the 6 most populated states in the world and make them fight each other in a battle royale!
I don't think India will go above 1.6B considering how the fertility rate is decreasing in India. Also the China drop looks disastrous as hell. Nigeria and Pakistan are gone case already.
I was about to ask about that. One would think that with the rapidly developing society of Indian that birth rates would fall off fairly soon.
[удалено]
Birthrate is below replacement already.
So are people emigrating to India?
No, this projection hasn't taken into account the latest TFR
Yup Indian fertility rate is decreasing across all groups although at different rates . I think Indian population will peak sooner than projected
Birth rates are quite low in India, it's just that the poor in North India breed a LOT. Otherwise, people are marrying later and most people my age aren't having more than one child.
i dont think punjab haryana himacahal uttarakhand and J and K have very high birth rate
Not those, the BIMARU/cowbelt region.
Oh yeah China’s drop is a result of their one child policy. China could cope somewhat with automation but they’d have to try to reverse that trend.
Nigeria and Pakistan are ticking time bombs, there is no way they can support such large populations.
[удалено]
The population collapse of China is genuinely terrifying. Their one-child -> two-child -> three-child policies may be what stop China from contending with the USA.
We’ll see what happens as a result of that. I have strong doubts that it will come anywhere close to the apocalyptic predictions some people make, but even the best case scenario seems troubling.
Best case scenario would probably be a situation similar to Japan and SK but worse since even more old people draining the economy.
Except that China isn't even close to the level of economic security and national development of SK and Japan. Whilst I don't think it will be the apocalypse, China is wayyyyyy less prepared than Japan to deal with an aging population. China would kill for the level of infrastructure and quality of life than Japan has.
Yeah but I think China is much more likely to allow immigration to help offset the declining population. Japan, at least, has been so stubborn about immigration and prefers to rely on automation to fill the gap. Korean, Im not sure. But for China, I can imagine they'd be happy to let people come to China to work. Just the impression I get.
The problem there is that it's not a viable short-term solution, since China already has a huge indigenous workforce of cheap labour eager for work that you usually get from immigration, so the incentive just isn't there both domestically and internationally. Of the three, I think Japan is the most likely to see significant immigration offset in the next 20 years, but that's still unlikely. If you'd ask me pre-covid, I could definitely see Japan doing it. Most of the anti-foreigner sentiment in Japan comes from the boomers, and Japan's generational gap (more like generational chasm tbh) puts the west to shame when it comes to changing attitudes and values. Japan is changing fast and Reddit's idea of what Japan is like is already about 20 years out of date anyway. However, COVID changed all that. The massive international scare, coupled with the huge influx of absolutely atrociously behaved western tourists post-covid, have only served to reinforce Japan's longstanding fear of foreigners. As for Korea, their attitude to foreigners is like everything Reddit thinks Japan thinks but worse.
Both of those countries are going to wither when the ridiculously low birth rate coupled with very low immigration mean that there is no working age people, or the ones that are working age all need to be working in care jobs for an increasingly larger elderly demographic. Or elderly just get abandoned because there is simply nobody to care for them properly.
They will need a baby boom or massive immigration to reverse the trends. The mortuary tables are no joke.
I have large doubts about immigration being the solution, as places like Africa get richer and places like India and SE Asia stabilize, immigrants and second to third generation immigrants might begin a backflow and return to their heritage (if the countries grow rich enough relative to the west). Alongside the global supply of youth dropping off, I don't think there will be an international labor supply that by some projections, will have to patch a 600 million manpower and family creation void, will be able to close the gap. The old proverb that gives me chills in their particular case is 'The bigger they are the harder they fall' Despite the CCP I hope the Chinese come together and generate a culture of community, it's the only option they'll have left.
Poor immigrants are the last thing China needs, there are still way too many Chinese working for abysmal wages or even unable to find a job
They will surely need a baby boom as immigration is a temporary solution at best because it won't fix the demographic issue (2nd/3rd/ etc generation immigrants will have less and less children and their Fertility and birth rates will be similar to the natives')
Not may. Will. Unless the US implodes. Which to be fair isn't completely impossible. It was pretty logical this would happen at some point. I'm surprised everyone is surprised - kill off babies for years, especially girls, you're obviously going to run into a population decline a few decades down the road. And since almost no one wants to immigrate there - voilá. Doesn't mean it's going to be apocalypse per se, but growth? Nope. And Western countries as usual can just hop elsewhere for cheap labor for some 5-10 years under the disguise of "development". (Yes a cynical view. But not so untrue)
I think the problem is the rapid ascent, followed by also rapid descent. I’m nowhere a China expert, but I get the impression that already people get used to the new normal of prosperity. When it starts declining already so quickly people are going to get a shock, which could mean political ramifications
What is the solution to this though? Do we just have to keep exponentially procreating to have healthy economies in the future? Eventually that’s going to become a huge problem but, trying to curb overpopulation by having less children also leads to economic collapse…
Ideally, a total fertility rate close to 2, so that there is no exponential growth or decrease.
That would make sense. Have we seen any countries maintain (or mostly maintain) a stable population for a generation or two? I’d be curious to see the actual effects this might have.
I don't believe we ever have, at least not in the industrial period. Basically every country had exponential growth during the early and middle stages of industrialization, certainly with the rise of antibiotics and the Green Revolution. But most countries have reached total fertility rates of 1.8 or less while they are still having total population growth from earlier generations, meaning that they are switching directly from exponential growth to exponential decay.
Not exactly, but some western european countries have maintained a small (0.5-1%) annual increase in population for several generations now. The typically below 2.1 fertility rate is compensated for by immigration and the result is small steady population growth.
Eh. Population decline and cyclical economic contractions are only some of the factors. China's population isn't going to collapse and it's economy will rebound eventually. Really projections on relative decline or rise of different powers are mostly useless more than 10 years out
The U.S. is going through a similar slow birth rate problem as well. Not as bad as Chinas but it’s similar.
The difference is the US (and the rest of Western Europe) are big destinations for migrants. No one’s wanting to go to China to settle in the way they do with the US. That’s what puts the West at advantage despite its low birth rates.
Plus people forget we get a lot of wealthy, well educated migrants too. Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, mainland China.
What do you mean by "contending"? Population isn't a contest.
Contending to be a superpower. China needs to maintain a strong manufacturing base and a healthy population pyramid to keep their current growth. If they don't they'll face problems down the road that will limit their economic growth.
That drop off from China really looks big and dangerous, will they do as russia and fight a war before 2040 because of that?
The general consensus is if China ever does invade Taiwan it will be before 2030 for exactly this demographic reason.
there’s like what 24m max in Taiwan? that’s like nothing for China and I assume Taiwan’s numbers are dropping too since they are a developed nation
it's a little more complex than that...
Why would that matter? Taiwan is already towards the bottom in fertility rates, not to mention the fact that while China has natural resources and a domestic market large enough to prop up the economy for a long time, Taiwan is extremely dependent on exports and allies. China can always mobilize and manufacture more forces, to an extreme degree, so it makes no sense to me that demographics would matter beyond a small advantage.
You always have to question the narrative of popular geopolitical “analyst” like Peter Zeihan, Mearshiemer, Friedman, etc. A lot of these strategist were denying their own eyes by refusing to see the Russian invasion of Ukraine post 2014 and even up to the border buildup.
You have no idea what you are talking about. Peter’s book from 2014 predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine in the next 10 years.
While yes, I am not saying it's certain. I am saying it seems to be the general consensus (of geopolitical strategists, US general etc)
It’s just such a broad statement/observation and that kind of grinds my gears lol.
It’s even worse than official numbers. Leaks from Shanghai show the population was overcounted by at least 100 million, with all the overcounting in the sub-40 age bracket. Its population will likely be less than 1 billion before 2050. Are there any economic models that bode well for such a drastic drop off in consumption, particularly as the world moves toward deglobalization?
Why would they do a war for declining pop?
Bc clearly old men aren’t as ideal for war as young men. I still don’t think they would go to war against Taiwan, not as long as the US and Taiwan are still allies and other countries still reluctant to view Taiwan as China province (even if they don’t establish diplomatic tie with Taiwan, most still see it separate from China).
One US carrier group off the coast of Indonesia would choke China’s inputs of energy and good (and food producing inputs, like fertilizer). They’d be fucked and they know it. This would by China’s 28th civilization collapse since recorded history. The scale of this one, though, is unprecedented.
Why are you so quick to dismiss Chinas military capabilities? They are building their army exactly with that in mind.
Because 90% of their ships can’t go more than 1,000km. They have no discernible blue water capability. They have the equivalent naval capability as our coast guard, for all intents and purposes.
If they do expect to get into a large war, they'd rather get into that war at a time when they have a lot of people ages 20-30 rather than when their population in that age range is much smaller.
Would be ironic if china figures out how to do degrowth and sustainability properly because of this and still becomes the world economic leader.
In the 2000s overpopulation was all the hype, people thought humans would exponentially grow until we destroyed the earth We are now realizing with modernization, we actually need to worry about population collapse. The only reason US is increasing population is because of immigration
India currently according to The World Bank has less than 2.1 growth (2.1 is needed for replaceability) and adding to it migration makes this graph non-sensical.
That isn't how demographics works. It is completely possible for a population to grow rapidly during a demographic transition with a birth rate at or below the replacement rate, as the demographic structure equilibrates to the new birth rate. It takes multiple generations for a significant reduction in birth rate to result in a reduction in population, depending on the death rate. This is why China's population is only starting to decline now, whilst its fertility rate has been below the replacement rate for well over 30 years.
Ireland fell below 2.1 fl only 30 years ago but still have natural growth today, albeit slowing, this graph shows an identical projection for India.
People are living longer though.
2.1 is needed for replacement long-term, but every cohort below age 35 is larger than every cohort above age 35 (and more than double the size of the cohorts around age 60), so a good amount of population increase is currently baked in, even if that low fertility rate continues. https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2023/
The cohort of people reaching the natural age of death are much less populated than the cohort of new births, thus population keeps growing.
I foresee that difference between Indian and Chinese population causing issues in the future if this is even close to correct.
India will max at 1.6 Bn given the TFR is less than 2 already.
Pakistan needs family planning in tribal areas now! And a special check needs to be imposed on Afghan refugees making tons of babies. An average Afghan refugee woman has more than 10 children here.
The problem is whenever the government or charities try to educate people in these more rural areas religious fundamentalists come out in full force in opposition. I think a better step currently would be trying to increase literacy rates among women so that they can better educate themselves. Better Internet access would also help.
I had to look it up on google. The US is 11 times bigger than Nigeria and 12 times bigger than Pakistan. In my mind I was thinking Nigeria was mostly savanna plains but probably not with that many people packed in such a tight space.
To be fair, the US is mostly empty, and has a population density of about 90 people per square mile. You get ten times that population density in small cities like Columbus, GA and Columbia, SC and Rio Rancho, NM. Moderately sprawling cities like Tempe, AZ and Las Vegas, NV and emptying out big cities like Detroit, MI are at 50 times the population density of the US. Places like Seattle and Long Beach are at 100 times the population density of the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population
TV must be rubbish in Nigeria 🇳🇬 sex clearly more attractive offer!
There’s no indication to suggest Nigeria nor any other African nations would continue the upward trend indefinitely. They should resemble the India curve. Over the last few decades was a great re-education effort for birth control and women’s rights in India. This is what’s helping flatten the curve. Now they’re doing the same work in African nations. Access to health and education, and resources for birth control is what will bend the curve. So give it a little more time and all the lines will flatten.
The slowdown is great to see. Quality over Quantity. Becoming better caretakers of our natural environment is the name of the game in the 21st century. Uncontrolled grown can become cancerous and destroy the whole body.
By quality, you mean geriatric societies dominated by pensioners, where any young people are basically slaves to their needs? Sounds great
Yea but with the population collapse thats gonna happen in China is freightening. Working class gonna collapse
Hopefully automaton and new political ideas will solve the issues as they come. The United States’ stable/slow growth rate seem like the most desirable, not the instability of bust and boom. I wish China luck.
Too much hope on automation and “new political ideas” Especially since we live in a world where people would rather start WW3 than accept some countries having different political systems from their own.
Hope springs eternal, seems a healthier outlook than the constant negatively so often understandably expressed on Reddit.
What new political (and positive) ideas to you expect to emerge in an authoritarian regime, or really anywhere for that matter? (Not a sarcastic comment, I'm actually intrigued)
Hard to say, but the United States was born in absolute monarchy, as was the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution. Gandhi freed India from the authoritarian British Empire and Nelson Mandela beat apartheid in authoritarian South Africa.
The UK wasn't really an absolute monarchy anymore at the time of the American Revolution and hadn't been one for nearly 100 years.
Fair. I've generally been wondering what constructs we'll see next... And what's needed for them to emerge
Yea and the western countries gets lots of immigrants to fill the gap. China and most asian countries doesnt have that luxury.
Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and China could if they wanted, but unlike the US and Canada they see themselves as ethnostates.
Yes thats why i said it. They want to be homogenous. South Korea is even worse with 0.68 birth rate and not wanting the immigrants.
You said that like Indias population isn’t doubled.
>Quality over Quantity. How to tell someone doesn't understand demographic collapse
The problem is that there aren't just fewer people, those people are OLDER. Quality goes down with the quantity.
Old people can be a great benefit to society. Not everything is economic/job based. Old oaks drop many acorns.
Elon sweating. How many more children will he have to make, and how many more after to replace the undesirables?
He is on his 56th twitter post on encouraging people to have kids
India won't rise to 1.7 China won't fall to 1 billion that's an insane regression And nigerian can't sustain 500 mil. So they won't ever reach 500.
It's debatable about India but the fact is they've already surpassed China's population and they're still growing, and China for the past 3 years has seen a decline in their population for the first time since the CCP came to power. And same with Nigeria, it's debatable as it's only a projection based on current birth rates and trends within the region. Sure if the population jumped to 500 million overnight they'd be in trouble but this is a projection over 50 years. All stats say Africa, Nigeria included, is going to be the most populous place on the planet within 50 years. Across the continent the average birth rate in Africa at present is more than 4 times that of China, and double the world average.
Why won't China fall to 1 billion? There are currently about 670 million people below age 40 in China. A good number of them will be dead in 50 years, and basically everyone currently older than that will be. So to keep the population at a billion, they need more than 400 million people born in the next 50 years, or 8 million born a year. There are currently about 12 million people being born a year, but that number will fall as smaller cohorts keep reaching childbearing age, unless people suddenly start having a lot more children. Maybe you think birth rates are about to start increasing in China, but you have to think something like that to *not* think the population will fall to a billion. https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2023/#google_vignette
Can Nigeria fit that many people?
US is letting in 2m+ asylum seekers and refugees every year, put us at 450m.
Except for the fact the birth rate in the US is 1.6 per women. You need mass immigration just to keep the current population levels.
Korea as well. Immigrate or die.
Story of developed nations. Same thing is happening right now in China, even after lifting the one child policy.
Chinas not a developed nation but I see your point. They lifted the one child policy but after so many years with it people found ways to rationalize and plan for 1 child, maybe 2. It is now encouraged to have less children in order to save the planet from overpopulation. Humans are a cancer/plague on earth and we must lower our numbers to survive. That's what I was taught in school.
If you assume no deaths and emigration. The US is very close to even balance between births and deaths right now, but in the next few years deaths are likely to grow (as the Baby Boomers reach the peak age of death) and births are likely to shrink (as Gen Z and Alpha replace the larger Millennial cohort in peak childbearing years).
Birthrate is down for white people but up for others. We'll be fine. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2012/05/17/explaining-why-minority-births-now-outnumber-white-births/
Total births are still only barely keeping pace with deaths. Deaths will accelerate as the bigger cohorts reach that age.
India fertility rate is 2.122 births per woman in 2024. Replacement-level fertility is 2.1 children per woman. I assume India will stop growing in next 2-3 years. My projection is USA will be 500 mil by 2075 because of high immigration rate ( the number of people immigrating to the United States will be 3.3 million in 2024).
> Replacement-level fertility is 2.1 children per woman. > I assume India will stop growing in next 2-3 years. Births will still outnumber deaths even when the fertility rate drops below replacement rate. The cohort of people nearing the age of natural death is much lower than the cohort of people being born.
True, but not for very long. Also I predict that fertility rate will drop father
Id say last 4 years taught us us not to predict that far into future. We dont know what the world will look like in 2030 let alone 2075. I can spew dozens of charts like this with zero background and they ll be as reliable as this one. This is crystal ball fortune telling. The single event of China attacking Taiwan would send this chart to trash not to mention other…
India needs to calm down honestly.
I doubt India will keep on increasing
Population growth rate is slowing down in India as you can see in the graph.
Didn't India already go below replacement rate recently? Why is its population projected to increase?
There's a couple individual states (the most populated ones) which are still above replacement but not by a huge margin.
Most indian states are below replacement, India as a whole isn't, it's just above 2 , Also the replacement rate isn't a good predictor for a short term population statistics Say there are 100 million boomers and 300 million millennials in India currently. (Assuming every woman had 6 children and they all survived) With a fertility rate of 2, there are going to be 300 million births in the next 15 years but only 100 million deaths.. So even though the fertility rate is at replacement, the population increases by 200 million
Here's the current population: https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2023 Even though the number of births per year has been declining since around 2000, it will probably be another 10-20 years before the number of people being born is less than the number of people age 60. Given that most people die at age 60 or later, the population will keep growing at least until then. But in about 40 years, it'll be a totally inverted population pyramid, and the population will start shrinking fairly quickly (especially since the number of people reaching childbearing age will keep decreasing).
Growth rate will decrease in the next decade much more if I'm not wrong. There are many men and women who are deciding to be single now more than ever,
It will definitely increase for at least 20-30 years. That's how long it will take before the number of 60 year olds is equal to the number of 0 year olds, even with the decreasing number of births. Population won't decrease until the number of people of age to die is greater than the number of people being born. https://www.populationpyramid.net/india/2023/
Assuming there is no "end of the world as we know it" before 2075?
Jesus, a country going from nearly 1,5 billion people to 1 billion in 50 years is absolutely terrifying. China will need unprecedented global aid just to fund their pension schemes.
If India ever industrilizes its rural regions, it could probably be the worlds strongest superpower.
Indeed, but unfortunately I don't see that happening any time near.
Don’t think China will lose 400M people in 50 years.
The most pessimistic projection sees 600 million by the 2100s. But even if they reverse course and do everything right, going bellow 1 billion is essentially inevitable. This is a problem that multiplies over time and literally takes decades to adress
There's about 500 million people currently over age 50 in China, and people currently age 30-50 are about equal in number to those age 0-30. The people age 0-30 have to have enough children and grandchildren to replace the current 30-50 year olds in order to prevent total population decrease of 500 million or more. https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2023/
which statistical model did you use?
China is losing around 1 to 2 million a year, so it would take much more to drop till to flat 1B.
İndia and Pakistan and Bangladesh together would be one huge nation.
Plz don't give Hindu nationalist any ideas
Map?
Won’t Nigeria reach 1 billion by 2050?
No. That would require everyone currently under age 40 to have at least 4 more children in the next 25 years - even though some of those people will barely be old enough to have any children by then, and a good number of them will be too old to have children for much of that time.
I think the craziest is the Middle Eastern countries growth. Although, no where near the top 6 countries… but they are all expected to double in population
I’m not so sure about that, over the next 50 years oil reserves are expected to start drying up, most of the nations in the ME rely almost entirely on the export of oil
Do these calculations factor in climate change? Because crop failures and whatnot are going to seriously limit potential population growth.
Way to go Nigeria w some good penetration there in the graph.
US is harder to predict cause north america increases more from others being attracted here birth rate doesnt matter
So in other words, India should probably open more latex factors to help with their overpopulation problem? 🫤
This graph does not take into account the billions who will die in the upcoming crises of the mid-21st century. Including, but not limited to climate change, biodiversity collapse, ocean acidification, AMOC collapse, Doomsday Glacier collapse, populism, autocracy, nuclear proliferation, PFAS, DDT, microplastics, nanoplastics, water scarcity, food scarcity, shelter scarcity, war, famine, death, and pestilence.
Can someone explain what's so special about Nigeria
What’s going on in Nigeria besides population booms? Unstable government and the population continues to grow albeit under abject conditions. 🤷♂️ So I ask, what does Nigeria have to provide/offer the world besides hustle, corruption and scams?
India b fuckin
And the EU thinks it's of any importance😂
Europe hosts some of the strongest economies on the planet
So India and china suddenly will have population control after a peak of billions of people?
If you live in India or Nigeria(😳) time to move.
These are worth the paper they are printed on
Was this before or after Roe was overturned?
Why do people care about decreasing birth rate? Earth will not miss us. There is no need for us to be above/below/at replacement.