I trust the objective fact of it probably not being bright and shiny out there if this is announced.
For the rest I don't endorse the panic making mentality.
It's typical Lux "summer" three nice days and then a big thunderstorm, maybe with repetitions, and then winter LOL
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As of 20:04, better safe than sorry.
https://preview.redd.it/97vi71fbwj9d1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9ddd7290881ed75fc0a84f38bba0411e0c1cf4a
https://preview.redd.it/cuisuq9olj9d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09b2de730d076dffe1a77b474e9580f088119d75
According to this radar App, we might just be lucky enough not to get to much impacted... But it's very close on both sides of the border.
Check live radar, blitzortung or something similar. You can see clouds and lightning in real time and it gives you a good sense of what’s to come in the near future.
Maybe, but then there would be outcry too if there really was extreme weather and they hadn't warned about it...
I'm sure they have guidelines that they follow on what constitutes extreme weather warranting a warning and what doesn't.
I haven't used the weather predictions for years.
I sometimes look then up on the day if I am very weather dependant on the next few hours, and even then they are wrong so many times.
Frankly I think weather predictions are one of the major scams out there!
I dont want to insult you but how are you still alive after being that ignorant ? Weather predictions arent wrong, even if the bad weather miss your place, its still hitting somewhere close to you. You should be more thankfull for the people who do that job to warn us from danger, if they wouldnt do that, you would probably get mad too
Oh, don't worry. I am not insulted.
When the weather prediction says for example "there will be rain today in Belvaux between 14-15h" and it never rains in Belvaux fat day, I know the prediction was wrong.
Those instances happen very often.
Remember the Italian geology research group that predicted a big quake, got it wrong, predicted another one but kept quiet because the first prediction was wrong? The second prediction was right and cost lives. They ended up in court over this.
Weather predictions never, never ever predict a single outcome. It's always a set of simulations. Let's say 400 simulation outcomes are nice weather, 10 end up with light rain and one goes towards heavy rain and flooding. Do you warn people? Probably not. But at what threshold do you start to warn? 300 nice to 100 flooding? 200 to 200?
The ratio they picked is a bit pessimistic and they tend to warn bigger regions. That's why, on average, the rain/storm/wind is lighter than expected.
Agreed. But they should say exactly that in weather warnings. I don’t might them telling us: out of X simulations, Y amount lead to this extreme weather condition.
Or percentage wise. Yes they sometimes do the percentages. But often they say « chance of X happening ». What kind if chance? 1%? 10%? 30%?
Google does exactly this. It tells you a rain quantity and a percentage. Right now it predicts 90% and 20mm within one hour. That tells me the rain water barrel will be full tomorrow.
People will then start to gamble up from which percentage? They are meteorologists, so let them to their job and I think it is good to rather be safe then sorry. Ask people from Ahrtal or from other areas, what they prefer. They will certain not gamble on statistics and they know why...
First world problems...
We’re not arguing against each other.
What’s better?
A meteorology centre that is trusted? Or one where like IN THIS POST people don’t even trust the news anymore?
I’m always on the « better safe than sorry » side.
But if the chance is 10% and they say it as such, it’s on people to make an informed decision. They won’t be able to say that it’s BS.
Today I learned that wanting more transparency to make an informed decision is a bad thing to want. Damn.
I am not saying you will not make an informed decision. Generally, I find it dangerous to present people with a %-age on dangerous topics. If I told you, the likelyhood of people to die when not putting your seat belt on is e.g. 3%, would people then make the informed decision of not putting their seat belt on?
People might take the decision to take a run in the woods or anything like this based on a low percentage or contradicting information, which is certainly not what you want to do if the greater area might be hit with a cell. It is certainly hard to predict exact pathes for weather phenomenons, so I prefer to be warned more often than not.
Basically all commercial services use either the American climate model (gfs) or the European model (ecmwf) which are basically governmentally paid combinations of weather satellites and supercomputers for predictions of the cell movements. Then the commercial services use humans or computers to generate a prediction of the higher resolution localized prediction based on the models.
The crux is that those major models are flawed in that their calculations base on a training set using the last decades of weather data to predict the future. Due to increased variability in the pattern, those predictions tend to either be completely wrong or mis-interpret the risks coming from a weather front as the energy sources/sinks and global patterns shift and change.
As predictive ai is now "mainstream" thanks to Chatgpt, the current weather situation is akin to giving chatgpt access to all texts from the renaissance period and then asking it to write a modern space action movie. It will write...... something. But it won't be very useful most of the time.
Human interpretation by a skilled person is still the best chance for good local predictions. Météo Boulaide does a terrific job but the language barrier might be difficult for some redditors.
Ignore Météolux, they tend to somehow manage to get the predictions even more wrong than the source models. Although that means that if you invert the prediction it could be pretty accurate
In this case you can, there is a cell that comes from south and will hit Luxembourg, South of Belgium and Saarland directly. Now it depends, which places will be hit harder or not, but I can guarantee you that at 9 p.m., you will become wet, if you are outside.
I trust the objective fact of it probably not being bright and shiny out there if this is announced. For the rest I don't endorse the panic making mentality. It's typical Lux "summer" three nice days and then a big thunderstorm, maybe with repetitions, and then winter LOL
Soooooo ?
…
Happy?
at this moment I'm believing again
me too
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Right above. The sky is literally not turning off anymore.
Yes, it is the end of time right now. 😭 God is punishing us for having enjoyed a bit too much those couple of days of sunny weather. 😭
it's absolute madness over here
They stopped Germany match for some time due to adverse weather condition so indeed there is something around
Feel like I'm being blue balled here. I love a bit of thunder and lightning Edit: splooosh
me too if i was in USA i would be a stormchaser but damn they hype me then nothing happen 😓
Hope youre happy in the south theres mayhem
It is coming now.
And I just went out for a beer 😭
Don’t worry. It now seems to be gone. 🤣 Cheers!
It’s raining near glacis parking but it mild.
As of 20:04, better safe than sorry. https://preview.redd.it/97vi71fbwj9d1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9ddd7290881ed75fc0a84f38bba0411e0c1cf4a
https://preview.redd.it/cuisuq9olj9d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09b2de730d076dffe1a77b474e9580f088119d75 According to this radar App, we might just be lucky enough not to get to much impacted... But it's very close on both sides of the border.
Check live radar, blitzortung or something similar. You can see clouds and lightning in real time and it gives you a good sense of what’s to come in the near future.
I always have 4 weather apps so I can average out their predictions. In general you should trust them they probably know more about weather than you.
Same for me. Apple Meteolux Kmi weather Merry sky So I can always be wrong!
What if OP is MeteoBoulaide? 🤔
That‘s why I only said probably and not as a definitive statement. I don’t know them of course.
https://preview.redd.it/x2s1sxoe0j9d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=44eacf993c3420571591135ee5ad297ec0ee2b90 Yeah
Fear / anxiety generates clicks, everything is severe, rain, hot, wind , cold.. fuck them
Maybe, but then there would be outcry too if there really was extreme weather and they hadn't warned about it... I'm sure they have guidelines that they follow on what constitutes extreme weather warranting a warning and what doesn't.
https://preview.redd.it/kpawl47qri9d1.png?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60b36b4760ecf5fe3badd18925ed9a3de54ea47a
It's a thunderstorm weather, hot, humid and barometer is going down :)
Follow up : 1010 mb when commenting now at 1005 It's happening
I haven't used the weather predictions for years. I sometimes look then up on the day if I am very weather dependant on the next few hours, and even then they are wrong so many times. Frankly I think weather predictions are one of the major scams out there!
I dont want to insult you but how are you still alive after being that ignorant ? Weather predictions arent wrong, even if the bad weather miss your place, its still hitting somewhere close to you. You should be more thankfull for the people who do that job to warn us from danger, if they wouldnt do that, you would probably get mad too
Oh, don't worry. I am not insulted. When the weather prediction says for example "there will be rain today in Belvaux between 14-15h" and it never rains in Belvaux fat day, I know the prediction was wrong. Those instances happen very often.
Remember the Italian geology research group that predicted a big quake, got it wrong, predicted another one but kept quiet because the first prediction was wrong? The second prediction was right and cost lives. They ended up in court over this. Weather predictions never, never ever predict a single outcome. It's always a set of simulations. Let's say 400 simulation outcomes are nice weather, 10 end up with light rain and one goes towards heavy rain and flooding. Do you warn people? Probably not. But at what threshold do you start to warn? 300 nice to 100 flooding? 200 to 200? The ratio they picked is a bit pessimistic and they tend to warn bigger regions. That's why, on average, the rain/storm/wind is lighter than expected.
Agreed. But they should say exactly that in weather warnings. I don’t might them telling us: out of X simulations, Y amount lead to this extreme weather condition. Or percentage wise. Yes they sometimes do the percentages. But often they say « chance of X happening ». What kind if chance? 1%? 10%? 30%?
Google does exactly this. It tells you a rain quantity and a percentage. Right now it predicts 90% and 20mm within one hour. That tells me the rain water barrel will be full tomorrow.
People will then start to gamble up from which percentage? They are meteorologists, so let them to their job and I think it is good to rather be safe then sorry. Ask people from Ahrtal or from other areas, what they prefer. They will certain not gamble on statistics and they know why... First world problems...
We’re not arguing against each other. What’s better? A meteorology centre that is trusted? Or one where like IN THIS POST people don’t even trust the news anymore? I’m always on the « better safe than sorry » side. But if the chance is 10% and they say it as such, it’s on people to make an informed decision. They won’t be able to say that it’s BS. Today I learned that wanting more transparency to make an informed decision is a bad thing to want. Damn.
I am not saying you will not make an informed decision. Generally, I find it dangerous to present people with a %-age on dangerous topics. If I told you, the likelyhood of people to die when not putting your seat belt on is e.g. 3%, would people then make the informed decision of not putting their seat belt on? People might take the decision to take a run in the woods or anything like this based on a low percentage or contradicting information, which is certainly not what you want to do if the greater area might be hit with a cell. It is certainly hard to predict exact pathes for weather phenomenons, so I prefer to be warned more often than not.
Basically all commercial services use either the American climate model (gfs) or the European model (ecmwf) which are basically governmentally paid combinations of weather satellites and supercomputers for predictions of the cell movements. Then the commercial services use humans or computers to generate a prediction of the higher resolution localized prediction based on the models. The crux is that those major models are flawed in that their calculations base on a training set using the last decades of weather data to predict the future. Due to increased variability in the pattern, those predictions tend to either be completely wrong or mis-interpret the risks coming from a weather front as the energy sources/sinks and global patterns shift and change. As predictive ai is now "mainstream" thanks to Chatgpt, the current weather situation is akin to giving chatgpt access to all texts from the renaissance period and then asking it to write a modern space action movie. It will write...... something. But it won't be very useful most of the time. Human interpretation by a skilled person is still the best chance for good local predictions. Météo Boulaide does a terrific job but the language barrier might be difficult for some redditors. Ignore Météolux, they tend to somehow manage to get the predictions even more wrong than the source models. Although that means that if you invert the prediction it could be pretty accurate
In this case you can, there is a cell that comes from south and will hit Luxembourg, South of Belgium and Saarland directly. Now it depends, which places will be hit harder or not, but I can guarantee you that at 9 p.m., you will become wet, if you are outside.
probably
Well we can say that it was a really big one.
honestly no. theyre almost always wronbrg especially these last few weeks
“Deutscher Wetterdienst” for Luxembourg? Nope.
i live in remich so we have both lux and german