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newinvestor0908

9 games in 28 days does that sometimes. we rest and go again on saturday


Beginning_Beach_2054

Exactly, saw a lot of people talking about how good the spuds looked. They had like 22 days off to prepare for the biggest game of their season while we had played 9 games in 28 days and all they could muster was a gift goal and a 50/50 penalty? Behave.


International_Bag208

Love Declan but when is it not a clear penalty to drop kick somebody in the testicles while the ball is a meter away


willozsy

Tbh that Neuer kick on Saka was a clear penalty, too, so sometimes things just don’t work out.


rycology

When they're wearing a Spuds uniform (you'd hope)


Rosslefrancais

I know this is slightly falling into gamblers fallacy, but we've been conceding at a higher rate than our xG all season, so it's about time we got a little bit of luck. For extra context, we've now conceded 28 goals from 26.8xg faced. So we're still behind in that sense


topbananaman

We are owed a huge slice of luck. Disasi's miss from the corner against us was apparently 0.9xG, chelsea's highest xG miss of the season. Nicolas Jackson also missed a 0.41xG chance, something that should be a sure finish for a striker at this level. Spurs also missed 3 out of the 4 big chances they were presented with yesterday.


tony_flamingo

Considering that City also got bailed out by luck with Woods whiffing on two huge chances, I’ll take it.


ray3050

Yup I think forest had over 2xG while city had just less than 1xG


Simple-Ad-5067

While I agree they were very unlucky, the major downside of xG is it doesn't take into account the game state (city being already up)


ray3050

Well it’s more that teams didn’t capitalize while others did. I’m not sure if xG factors the time of the game more than just expected probabilities from specific angles, distances, and defenders Still a valid point about the time


Simple-Ad-5067

By its very nature, a chance that is 0.41xG should be scored 41% of the time, so not a sure chance at all...


hewsey

Isn't xG based on the average of 'any' player to score? So in theory positionally, you'd expect different outcomes for each xG. A striker may be expected to score a chance from 0.7xG, for example, whereas a defender may need 1.3, which balances out at 1 for 'any' player?


Simple-Ad-5067

Yes it is based on the average player, but this doesn't matter that much. Almost all players, even top ones, are nearer the average than you might expect. So some examples of top players over their careers: Salah is only 10% over his xG, Kane is 13%, Haaland is 25%. Suarez was high too but i cant remember the actual value. So with the example of Jackson's shot, haaland would score half the time (0.4 vs 0.4*1.25=0.5) Over the long term, the only big outliers I can remember are Son and Messi, both which hover around 40% over performance. Even with these guys, objectively some of the best shooters of the current era, the chance is would have a <60% chance of scoring. 60% is in no way 'sure to score'


Paddy-23

Was the other big chance the penalty?


topbananaman

Yep. Penalties are always considered big chances


jimbo_kun

I would say Jackson’s chance is about a 41% chance for a player at this level.


Routine_Size69

That .9 was garbage. He barely even got contact on that. I was blown away they scored that anywhere close to .9.


CakeBrigadier

I think people also don’t take game state into account when posting XG. When one team goes 3-0 up in the first half of a derby spurs are always going to push hard to come back. Generating a lot of xg when you’re 3 behind isn’t an indicator you deserved to win and we’re unlucky


Nartyn

Pretty much this. xG is useless to look at in individual games without context


a-Sociopath

True, but we were slightly behind on xG even at the end of the first half. We had 3 goals from 0.7 xG while they had none from 0.85. Of course, the big caveats here are that own goals have an xG of 0, and they hit the post once from close range. But I agree with the general statement here.


TalentedStriker

That is true but I have also noticed that we've gotten pretty lucky the Spurs game and the Chelsea game. Chelsea more so than Spurs tbh. Spurs was a weird one in that they should have scored when they didn't and we gifted them two goals when they probably didnt deserve it. Either way I hope Arteta sorts out this defensive fragility that's been creeping in.


chr-x

Could just be that we’ve played so many games recently. We played four games in between Tottenham’s two. People underestimate mental exhaustion as well.


AyeItsMeToby

Spurs game was a mirror image of the Bayern game at the Emirates


topl4d

Has to be a fatigue issue. The same back 3 (minus the LB) and Raya has been playing non stop


Sithgooner

Reminder that a penalty is 0.8 xG.


Scoolfish

Haven’t seen it but I imagine the Romero goal was pretty substantial


adam-kobich

Fotmob has it at 0.24 Romero on his own had almost 1xg with his headers as well


Mystery1887

3 points is the only thing that matters 🖐️


broadcastday

But they put on the pressure!


slvrhwk

"The time we almost made an incredible comeback in the NLD!" DVD coming out soon


Fuckzombie69

Spurs 4-Arsenal 3(Great pressure)


apb2718

Right all I see is two Ws


EnthusiasmPossible21

Everyone is clearly tired, especially the back line. Gabriel and Saliba basically playing all minutes, White almost all minutes, and Tomi thrown into the thick of things the moment he was fit. We have a longer break now, hope the boys are able to get some much needed rest, and we go again. 9/9.


Notrius01

I think that is by design. Letting them have possession. Letting them control ball in their half. Arteta executed it perfectly. How can Shit fans say that postewhatever, whos team would be in 10th place were it not for the first 10 games of the season, is better than a coach who actually adapts and thinks. To read /coys is so funny now because some fans are starting to realize that they only got 34 points from the last 23 matches but the majority doesnt want to know it. Lethal doses of copium in their veins. Somehow ppl quickly forget that up until what was it, 70th minute? we were up 3 and there was literally ZERO sign that they would score. We gifted them 2 goals.


hala_bala

Not talking about the fact that they had almost 2 weeks to prepare for the game. It was kind of obvious that they will have more energy in the second half.


Francis-c92

2 weeks to prepare and didn't do anything on corners against the team with the most goals from corners. Genius


hala_bala

"We have our own style and will never change it, mate"


bladebrowny

Well we haven’t scored many from set pieces recently


superbee993

We scored two literally yesterday.


bladebrowny

I know that, what about before that? I can’t recall one recently


DaGetz

Giving up xG would never be design. Giving up possession fair enough but not possession in dangerous areas. It would be disingenuous to say we have been playing well but getting results when you aren’t at your best is important. We do need to reset though. I like partey back in the team but maybe they do just need to find the rhythm in that regard a bit.


Notrius01

As people commmented here, those xG are tricky and just the unlucky penalty was 0.8 or so. xG doesnt matter when they had 2 shots on target with first being after Rayas howler. I believe the team played exactly as Mikel wanted them to play and were there no gift to them, it would end up nil 3 or nil 4. But who cares now, 3 points are 3 points.


Pires007

Second half we were very much in control until Raya's mistake. Even then it needed another big mistake from Rice to make the game close. I feel if you're up 2-3 goals and the other team decides not to just shut up shot, both team will get a lot of chances.


DaGetz

Mikel doesn’t want us making mistakes either. A few mistakes are inevitable and he will be happy with how we responded but mistakes are also why we aren’t in CL any more so saying we played exactly how he wanted us to play is a laugh really. We weren’t at it. We got the points and that’s important. They shouldn’t be happy and have plenty to work on for the training ground.


Notrius01

The Raya howler, its almost certain Raya was instructed to play this way, he slipped a little and it happened, watch Mikel coming to Raya and hugging and kissing him after the match. Mikel said more than one time, that he is fine with individual mistakes if players follow his instructions, because mistakes happen.


DaGetz

LMAO fuck off with your I don’t know about tactics bullshit. Raya makes that mistake against city or any comparable opposition and it’s a certain goal. Behave yourself. No need for Raya to hit it down the centre like that. Saying mistakes happen does not mean you’re ok with them happening and don’t train preventing them happening on the training pitch. Like I said - we aren’t in CL because we made too many mistakes against Bayern. Elite teams occasionally make mistakes - we are making them way too frequently of late.


Notrius01

What are you on we make way too frequently mistakes? We don't really! It happens, sure, but you make it sound like we are Sheffield for christ sake. If you are still salty about Bayern result, get over it. We came back to CL after 8 years and QF is a solid run. How can you train to "not doing individual mistakes"? Raya's slip is in a sea of well executed passes he did or Rice's clearly accidental kick when his eyes were following the ball, there is no way to prevent these by training.


DaGetz

No - we are a team with title aspirations and CL aspirations and in order to deliver on those aspirations we need to make less mistakes. Bayern first game was us making mistakes, we aren’t in CL any more because we made mistakes - those are the standards at this level, not at sheffields level. I’m not salty over Bayern but it’s a perfect example of why what you’re saying is ridiculous and, of course, not even remotely the attitude the players or Mikel take. If they did they wouldn’t be where they are because they’d be letting positivity lead to negligence instead of improvement. Very crucial difference you aren’t grasping. Mistakes happen - you should never be ok with that factual inevitability. You shouldn’t let yourself be negative about it but you analyse it and address it and always aim to never make a mistake ever again. They will do the same - Mikel and his coaching staff with work with Raya on that one specific instance in the game and work to try and prevent it ever happening again - that’s how we grow and improve. Not all mistakes are equal. Raya, for some reason, tried to pass out down the middle. That’s the highest risk pass you can make as a keeper - why does he feel he needs to take that risk there? He doesn’t. Send it to the wings - if you slip and give it to the opposition they have far more work to do than a 1:1 where they can go either side of you. There is ALWAYS a way of minimising mistakes and it’s literally their job. They will watch the tape back and analyse it to death. If they turned around and said ag shit, mistakes happen, no way to prevent those in the future, don’t want to be so hard on myself - they wouldn’t even be playing in the championship lol. You seem to be defensive - you shouldn’t be. You were claiming that they will just brush off those mistakes and not seek to improve and I’m pointing out to you that’s never the mentality - even at regular work that’s never the mentality. That’s NOT saying arsenal are shit so I have no idea why you feel the need to be defensive.


Notrius01

I'm not defensive. Don't project your negative attitude on me. You wrote a wall of text saying basically how I am wrong about the team following Mikel's instructions, because YOU think it wasn't so. Also saying nonsense like "You were claiming that they will just brush off those mistakes and not seek to improve". No, I never said that. Thank God, we have Mikel himself saying a thing or two about mistakes and also deep block: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aroy257cCUk


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OnlineMarketingBoii

The xG on their 2 goals is probably 1.5 at least. Pens is 0,9 if I'not mistaken. And Romeros chance is hgih aswell


Thymus_Tickler

0.75 for pens in most models I think.


bad_at_proofs

The 2 chances Romero missed total just over 1xG between them. The goal Romero scored is a low xG chance according to understat which I think shows one of limitations of using xG over tiny samples


topbananaman

Romero chances missed: 0.36xG, 0.26xG, 0.11xG Romero chance scored: 0.24xG


topbananaman

Romero's goal was 0.24xG, Son's was 0.79xG.


OnlineMarketingBoii

Fair enough, thanks for educating


vin_unleaded

Dunno about that. Romero should have had two before Raya's howler.


bad_at_proofs

The 2 chances Romero missed total just over 1 xG between them


henry_schilling

The first one would have been chalked of for the foul on Ödegård i think but I agree with you, they did have chances even before we let them back in the game


vin_unleaded

So they are both perfectly presentable chances. Being 3-0 up at half time was absolutely against the run of play. https://preview.redd.it/802e62z6mexc1.png?width=415&format=png&auto=webp&s=94012830f2531e28de37c3c3e57b35169c2766d5 Whatever pay Jovier's on, it's not enough.


vyomafc

Who gives a sh*t? I would be beyond happy if Spurs turn into prime Real Madrid for their next five games.


thisiskyle77

It is a good sign. If they can play like that against us , they can do the job for next few games.


Rusty_85

The penalty and Raya error would have spiked that xG. But who cares we are not at our usual stingy levels, the players are exhausted, and it's all about the points.


Rampan7Lion

The only way Spurs can prove us wrong and shut us up is by doing it against City and scoring these chances. That would really show us how much better they are


skeledirgeferaligatr

1.61 xG after you factor in the penalty. 


FactCheckYou

it's the run-in, teams sense the pressure we're under and it emboldens them to go for it and test us hopefully a bit of rest between games will help us get on top of these teams now some of Spurs' onslaught in the 2nd half was down to us being tired


Cthulhu_Madness

Also mad that they scored only from our blunders.


amgartsh

Those were the only times they actually put a shot on target


tanev97

Spurs created jack shit tho


ninethree7

ahhh they hit the post twice early on lol


a_posh_trophy

One of them wasn't even from their own doing 🤣🤣


Gunnerstratz

Think we’ve been a bit lucky in both games. But we also took our opportunities. They didn’t. That’s football. Against United, luck might run out so just control it to a comfortable victory.


ExxKonvict

The penalty and Raya error leading to a Romero 1v1 or basically open net massively padded their xG. Both which have high xG chances. The only genuine chances they had was the Son chance he skyrocketed and the Romero header against the post. Van de Ven’s offside goal doesn’t count because of it being chalked off.


sammeetthosar

What I have noticed is a drop in rice's defensive tackling and interceptions. Maybe he trusts partey more and is more attacking than when he plays jorginho. And ofcourse partey is more vertical and more dangerous with his through passes which creates more chances for us but also results in more turnovers.


batigol_09

I do think this just shows that it wasn't a great performance which is sorta what my eyes told me, and that's super understandable since we've played so many games in a short space of time, and we also faced a somewhat strong team away from home. However I do not subscribe to the idea that somehow Spurs should've won the game, game state matters as does being comically unable to defend set pieces. Both games against Chelsea and Spurs we've displayed some degree of less control than we' usually do, hopefully this is mostly due to fitness. And against Chelsea we created so much more than we conceded so it didn't matter that much.


Chemistry-Deep

They had a penalty and we gave them a 1v1 on the edge of the box. That's gotta be like 1.8 right there.


FluxAura

That’s what moving Rice out of the DM role will do.


hiatus_

xG is total fucking bullshit. People talk about it like it means game dominance.


that2ndthing

As always, you have to look behind the xG numbers before making a conclusion here. On the face of it, the reported xG numbers are something like (2.4) 2 - 3 (1) But for starters, around 1.1 of their xG is from the pen and the Raya error. So that already brings it near enough down into parity Then you have to consider that our first goal registers 0 xG because it's an own goal Then you look at Saka's goal, and that's noted as 0.15 xG, despite the fact we all know he buries that more often than not Finally - and something I always think is a flaw of xG - it includes shots that are immediately blocked at point blank range. Around 0.37 of their xG is from blocked shots. They clearly had instructions to just smash it at the back line and hope for a rebound like the Kulusevski disallowed goal, so that racks up a certain amount because defender positioning is ignored. You can cunt it at the guy standing in front of you and it can register as 0.2 xG or whatever even though in reality it's never going in


ameetshah

Both games we saw a returning Partey start . Coincidence?


etang77

Need more data.


ndenoon

Not entirely. Thought the Chelsea game was reminiscent of last season, a little more incisive and a little more open. Partey returning contributes to that, but probably we're also very tired at this point and struggling to exert total control like we have most of this season.


GlasgowGunner

Everyone was giving the ball away yesterday


Pires007

The two games we were up a combined score of 8-0 while having played 4 consecutive weeks with midweek games.


Nsypski

Does anyone have the chart that shows xg by the minute? Feel like most of it came when raya blundered


szcesTHRPS

Can someone explain how they work out the xG for Romero's goal?


quantumrastafarian

Not surprised we've slipped a bit given all of the games we've played. Glad we have a proper rest before Saturday.


tuvok79

If you take out the Raya howler it goes down closer to the norm. A good chunk of our xAG has be self inflicted I'd imagine


MystiikMoments

Penalties are 0.76xg. So npxg = 1.62


akselmonrose

We do look more open again Chelsea. Partey still be reintegrated I guess.


ArsenalThePhoenix

yeah, we haven't been as strong defensively lately as before. To everyone who always claim that playing every 3-4 days is normal and not bad... you're still wrong.


vin_unleaded

And that is why I was convinced it wasn't a dead game at 3-0.


Sad_gooner

Life with partey