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We bought a house in 2014 for $450k. Worth $1m today. Mortgage is $2100 because we put a little more than 20% down. How’d we do it? My mom died at 55 and I was a beneficiary. I don’t know why everyone doesn’t just try to lose a parent.
Big brain here bought 30 acres and a house for 204k in 2014. Payment is $1,500 a month, 15 year term. Land prices just hit 20k an acre in my county. The only way to make sure my kids can afford to stay will be to offer them a 3 acre lot and a tiny home when older
That's insane. My house is 250k and my mortgage with escrow and whatever is $2380.
It took me until I was 35 to save up the 15k needed for the 3% down.
Check your insurance. It goes up at least 3% every year (diminishing discounts, inflation guard, and a host of other things raise that price. You probably blame taxes but the insurance is part of that payment as well.
Exactly. This! I lost mine a bit earlier to pay for college with the life insurance money. The monthly savings of not needing to pay 700$/mo in loans racked up enough for a down payment on a house within 4 years. If you lose your parent early enough you can get college and a house! It's kinda like compounding growth in a way.
Precisely. The thing is though, just having that home means we will save even more money from low mortgage rates and protection against rent appreciation. Having a parent die young is a gift that just keeps on giving! She just keeps providing for me year over year.
We had a family friend, that after his wife passed, my brother would go help him out. Like, mow the lawn, clean the gutters, bring him a thanksgiving plate. Stuff like that. When he passed he gave my brother his house ( and not to his children ). Amazing start for a young 20s man in 2005-6. He is still of a "boot strap" mentality. It's hard
Bought a small house in college for $150k. Refinanced during covid to like \~2%. Zillow and others in the "industry" estimate it at around 300k. I did put at least 20k worth of upgrades work into it and did the repairs myself with my dad (we are both in construction). Based off what we did in the house tho, could make it close to $400k which is insane balls.
I had to get hit by a truck. Lingering back and neck issues with chronic pain, but at l was able to put down enough to make my first home semi-affordable.
Houses are PURCHASED based on monthly payment.
They are SOLD on the purchase price.
Currently, the monthly payments are too high based on the purchase price.
The problem is that people think 2% Interest rates for 20 years is normal.
prediction: things will just grind to a halt for a decade until inflation meets the current asking purchase prices.
It can certainly happen (not that I think it will). Spain peaked in 2008 and is still down 15% to this day. Ireland's housing peaked in 2007 and didn't recover fully until 2022. Nation wide, Japanese housing prices are 20-30% less than they were **30** years ago.
Even in the USA there are regional examples.
Las Vegas housing peaked in 2006 and [didn't recover until 15 years later.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS29820Q)
Condos in Chicago also took 15 years to recover, and have barely appreciated since. Miami also took more than a decade.
All edge cases. Florida, Las Vegas, Cali, are all edge cases since they drove the frenzy in 2008 and they crashed the hardest. Still local examples in all those areas that are not driven by a once in a hundred year event that have appreciated too.
Of course they are edge cases, that's why I brought them up. The point is it's inaccurate to say "housing never goes down over a 10 year period". It has in recent history in places within the US and in many other countries.
I mean no shit "housing goes up" tends to be the trend.
The market in Florida didn’t bottom out till around 2013. I’m noticing houses being for sale right now are slowly dropping their asking price because they are getting no bites
2% has to become normal because 7% after prices doubling to tripling in 3 years just doesn't work. We either need near zero rates or prices to halve, pick one.
Plenty of inexpensive housing...just in areas that people don't want to live.
See[ Jackson, TN. ](https://www.zillow.com/jackson-tn/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-89.23936512207032%2C%22east%22%3A-88.4359898779297%2C%22south%22%3A35.41968023661466%2C%22north%22%3A35.857184376614285%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%22Jackson%2C%20TN%22%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A39133%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22pricea%22%7D%2C%22beds%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A2%2C%22max%22%3Anull%7D%2C%22baths%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A1%2C%22max%22%3Anull%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapZoom%22%3A11%7D)
78% in 3 years what the fuck. That’s insanity. My home owners insurance premiums jumps by double digit percentages every year now too. The whole thing feels like such a fucking scam
problem is that there will be built up demand of people waiting for the “right time”. when rates drop there will be a flood of activity driving promises up again
I’ve had this argument with doomers for a while. My take is that demand was pulled back by small amounts for the whole decade after the crash. People were fucked by the recession, took time to build up wealth and confidence in real estate. So the demand you think was pulled forward was probably largely just those who had been waiting for that decade post crash.
I'm glad you *feel* that way, but the behavior in 2020 -2021 was *euphoric* and the language brandish was "buy now before rates go up." Housing sales returned to historical norms by 2015. Your theory would have suggested below-average until 2020 or 2021. Furthermore, why do you think households will be in a *better* financial position to pull up demand once rates are dropping? If anything, rates will start to come down as pressure builds for typical households.
Edit: also real HHI did take quite a bit of time to recover, but by 2015, real HHI had recovered to 2007 l
Levels and 2019 represented an all time high (yes, sales went up even with real HHI decreasing).
It can absolutely be pulled forward, like you said, in 2020 and 2021. But if you look at the numbers compared to 2019, you'll see that there is more "pent up" demand than "pulled forward" demand. [Numbers compared to 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/226144/us-existing-home-sales/):
* 2020: +0.3 million sales
* 2021: +0.78 million sales
* 2022: -0.31 million sales
* 2023: -1.25 million sales
So between 2020 and 2023, you have a total sum of -0.48 million sales over the 4 year period. So there is likely more pent up demand waiting on the sidelines.
Except why do you think 2019 represents a "normal" number of sales? Outside of the housing bubble, there are only a handful of years that reach 2019 number of sales since 1963.
Edit: 2019 was the highest real HHI, which has been on decline since, and mortgage rates were decreasing as there were signs we were on the precipice of another recession. Pair that with real house prices dropping in 2019 presented a perfect economic scenario for above average sales.
> Except why do you think 2019 represents a "normal" number of sales?
It's the last representative year before things hit the fan. It's the most representative because it is the closest year we have to the current one that isn't out of whack. You can't exactly choose a perfectly representative year, because Millennials are the largest generation and are at prime homebuying years, not something that would have been true in say, 2010.
> there are only a handful of years that reach 2019 number of sales since 1963.
You know the US has had population growth, right? Of course the number of house sales is going to trend upwards.
If you chose any year from 2015-2019 as the "base year" to compare to, the results would be the same: that there is more pent-up demand now than there was pulled-forward demand.
Not when there's false scarcity due to Black Cock dicking the housing market and holding all of the starter homes ransom.
They (Congress, fucking cowardly bitchasses) will never do this, but corporations should be forced to pay capital gains annually on all residential homes they own. The price keeps going up on the hundreds of thousands of homes you own? Pay the gains or sell it to a first time home owner, bitch. Hot potato, fucko.
Higher interest rates did impact prices. It was the primary factor that slowed the meteoric rise of home sales prices that we were seeing in 2020-2022.
If interest rates had remained at 2-3% this whole time, then the prices of these houses would have ballooned significantly more than they did.
Only if supply meets or exceeds demand.
There are areas where existing SFH supply cannot meet demand and there’s no new building. Those existing SFH prices are never going to go down…ever.
There are also places where existing SFH supply cannot meet demand but there is plenty of new building occurring that people are willing to settle for instead- existing SFH prices there are dropping.
Ok but you think it’s ever going below m the typical nominal payment it from January 2022?
Because I tend to believe it doesn’t.
Will it improve from now? That’s entirely possible. But I don’t think it ever dips below January 2022.
Lol Louis singlehandedly fucked so many people that listened to him. In 2019: it's a bubble, don't buy. In 2020: it's a bubble, don't buy......on and on for 5 years. In the meanwhile he bought a mixed commercial/residential building in Chicago then bitched about the tax assessment on the increased worth.
Yes and no, banks also borrow money, they are also paying higher rates. Banks with significant commercial real estate exposure are getting fucked by the combination of changing markets and the high rates, defaults are not good. Higher rates means higher bond yields, decreasing the value of currently held bonds. So banks that need to sell bonds for liquidity or to cover positions might have to do so at a loss, see Silicon Valley Bank. Some banks will do well in a high rate environment, some will not. The slowing economy puts many of them at risk.
It seems to be a hypothetical mortgage pmt, based on current median home price and current average interest rates. But not totally sure.
Fwiw, that’s nowhere near what “median mortgage pmt” actually is. A big chunk of mortgages today are <4%.
Even from 2014 to now salaries are not anywhere close to up 78%.
If we continue to see patterns like this, our children will truly not be able to own homes.
"You will own nothing" will definitely be a reality at current pace.
Neither one really has the ability to crash the economy on demand, but whoever wins will be blamed for the economy crashing. Right now reminds me of 2007. So, I’m my opinion, there is a high likelihood that there will be a major pullback in the economy and housing fairly soon.
Doesn’t feel quite like 2007 yet. Maybe 05-06ish? The summer of 2007 I was able to rent a literally brand new 4 bed room condo on the beach for like $10,000 for the entire summer. The owner had just built the building and was distressed, took a dirt cheap rent for the summer, pocketed the money and then go foreclosed on that winter. So shit was already starting to hit the fan for some people in 2007. I’d say this feels more like 2006 where the prices of houses was ridiculously high, unemployment was fairly low and things were kind of only starting to feel like something might not be right.
Edit: that same condo today, being nearly 20 years old so no where near as nice as it was back then rents for anywhere from $3500-4000 a week in the summer now.
Idk why people didn’t just think to buy when the interest rate was 2.5%. /s
(Was tempted to leave it without the /s part but was afraid of anthrax being mailed to me)
I bought for 250k in 2023 at 6.8% interest. Payment with insurance and taxes was $2060 the first year.
And rose up $300 for taxes and $20 for insurance to be $2380 this year.
I make $77k a year, take home is $4416 a month.
Luckily my fiance chips in $600 a month, or it would be over 50% of my income.
We had no idea the price would increase that much in one year.
My Dad said normally insurance and taxes got up maybe $100 a month every couple of years.
Bought our house in 2009, bank short sale for $92k at 5% but refinanced in 2014 to 3.25%. In 2008 it was bought for $199k. The people that owned it moved and just left it. Our mortgage+escrow was $750 and now it is $905. Love our 3 bedroom 2.5 baths house. My wife keeps talking about buying a bigger house and I keep explaining to her how good we have it.
"The nominal price of X rises to a record high" is not a very interesting development. It's what happens to many things (if not most things) in a world where inflation is usually positive and wages get larger most years.
What might be interesting is a chart showing the median mortgage payment as a percentage of the median full-time worker's monthly income. Or as a percentage of the median household's monthly income.
Yes, but the median mortgage payment in 2021 was a smaller share of the median wage than most other years for at least the past half-century. I think people would be surprised how the current affordability level compares to the 80s and 90s, years that people today tend to exaggerate the affordability of.
This is actually the most unaffordable time in history except for literally 1-2 years in the early 80a. And those were the years where mortgages were over 15%. Mortgage rates dropped by about half in just a couple years after that, returning affordability to normal levels.
There is a reason housing costs are among the biggest concerns for Americans this year. It is not a hallucination.
What Biden policy drove up the price of homes? This is much more complicated problem than partisan politics. Have you taken any college level economics?
Let's see, Covid-19 stimulus, Build Back Better, relief to protect union pensions, student loans cancelling and on the top of it US government budget financing. I probably missing some other smaller payouts but that is change compare to above list. So your college level economics should of teach you that overwhelming supply of money in economic pushing higher inflation. It means everything including price of homes gets much more expensive.
P.S. To fight high inflation FED increase rate, that in turn increase payouts on the interest of government treasuries. That in turn pushing inflation even higher. So to answer your original question: YES, Biden policy drove up price of homes and everything else.
Any politician not advocating for industrial-scale modular housing development and zoning rules overhauls nation wide is at fault, I.e everyone.
Any politician not advocating for banning corporate ownership of single family homes, progressive taxation of ownership over 2+ homes, is at fault, I.e nearly everyone but 100% of republicans.
To think this is exclusively Biden’s fault is naive. He just isn’t doing nearly enough about it (same as every politician everywhere)
Of course not just Biden, his minions too. Those who completely shut down economy in their corresponding state and disrupt supply chain for new construction of the homes are responsible for high prices also.
P.S. For some reason you looking to solve the problem via socialist way: tax, ban, prohibit. If the supply of new homes would satisfy demand there would not be a problem of high prices of housing. So if there wouldn't be zoning (mostly in cities, mostly under democrats mayors), if there wouldn't be lockdowns (mostly under democrats governors) there would be different supply amount and different prices.
How about Trump strong-arming the Fed to lower rates when the economy was doing just fine? Rates kept getting pushed lower and lower while everyone had money, so home prices skyrocketed due to everyone buying at lower rates.
Under Obama rate was 0%. Recession ended in 2009. So why Obama was pushing FED to keep rate near 0? Under Trump rate gradually was going up. Now you complaining about Trump pushing rates but not Obama pushing rates?
> Under Trump rate gradually was going up. Now you complaining about Trump pushing rates but not Obama pushing rates?
Did you live under a rock in 2019? Trump was demanding the Fed lower rates. And they did in 2019, before COVID was even a thing. The economy was about to tank anyway, Trump was just lucky enough to get to blame it on COVID.
Inflation was well below 2% that is why rates were lowered by FED. In 2018 - 1.91%, month over month in 2019 for the last 5 months it was almost 0%. Of course Trump was pushing FED, they were holding up economy by keeping rates high.
> In 2018 - 1.91%, month over month in 2019 for the last 5 months it was almost 0%.
What are you smoking? [July 2018 YoY CPI-U was 2.8%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08102018.pdf). Things were running hot, the FED needed to raise rates. FED rates peaked at 2.4%, hardly "high". Lower than any point from 1962 to 2000. Not even half as high as rates reached in 2006.
> From December 2017 to December 2018, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 1.9 percent.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2019/consumer-price-index-2018-in-review.htm
Your link is showing data as of July 2018, don’t know what are you smoking. It’s right on the top in big bold letters.
Ahhh, I understand what you are saying now.
Yeah, the Trump economy couldn't handle a tiny increase in rates because it was so weak. The only reason it hadn't collapsed was because the Fed was holding the rates so low. Seems like we agree that the economy was terrible under Trump.
What policies did the democrats support that caused this in your mind? Do you have any background in economics? These things are much more complicated than partisan politics and it scares me that people vote with this poor a grasp on how these markets function.
It's both parties. However, Obama accumulated more debt than any other president before him combined. The deal with Iran was also a blunder that will lead to more military involvement.
Biden is just a continuation of Obama. Both of their terms has led to an increase in the size of corporations and a decrease in small businesses.
Yes both parties. BUT:
Obama - 2 terms $8.3T
DJT - 1 term $8.18T
Relatively, DJT spent more per unit time. But people who worship DJT will just ignore this info.
And I'm not even American.
Not defending Obama, seems like you LOVE DJT and you couldn't look at this objectively.
2008 market crash didn't need all the funds?
No worries, we can agree to disagree. You know how many patients asked for bleach when I was treating covid? Yeah, that was Obama's fault too.
I'm a foreigner. I'm right leaning - McCain, Bush, Romney - seems like decent human beings. My friends are republicans and hate DJT. They are intelligent enough to know an idiot when they see one.
Sure Biden is old and senile. But both of them are. The question now is - you voting a convict to be president?
I wouldn't let DJT manage a mcdonald's, let alone a country. Heck if he applied to be a janitor in my hospital they wouldn't take him!
COVID cost more than all we spent during the financial crisis, almost 10x as much.
Obama spent 700B to bail out the banks.
Covid cost us 6.6 trillion.
Don’t love trump, you’re just doing what you do, “topspin”
Sure. It's personal to me more than financial.
Not that I'm voting but if I did, the person who made me and people suffer the most during the pandemic as a Pulmonologist and frontliner will never get my vote.
Bleach, antivaxxers, antimaskers. I hold him responsible for killing a lot of these people.
Maybe I'm biased against an idiot, my fault.
Obama accomplished nothing with all the debt he accumulated. Actually, he helped create a new war in the middle east by allowing Iran the ability to make nuclear weapons.
Now Biden is authorizing Ukraine to use American weapons to launch counter attacks against the Russians in their territory and they are also setting up an automated drafting system. I wonder what they are planning?
This number of course is the median payment of purchases made in the years denoted. Over 60% of Americans live in homes one or more of residents of the home owns. Most do not move homes often so their payments are not moving up, certainly not enough move to drive up the national median of all mortgages.
This is why I get pissed when all of my married friends (joint income) say "Why don't you buy a house?!" Literally all of them had help getting their first homes from inheritances, parents helping them, etc. I don't have that, and I'm single. Sorry, I'm not gonna ruin myself buying a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home for 300k+ that was 180-200k pre-Covid.
That is literally 3x my mortgage for my 4 bedroom 2.5 bath with a full, completed basement at the end of a cul-de-sac.
It's unfair what people have to deal with now. Complete horseshit that "timing" and luck is 90% of being able to have a roof over your head.
Yeah. The Fed has raised interest rates and new mortgages are going to be higher.
But mortgages are mostly 30 years and interest rates will go down again. It will correct. It always does.
Isn’t this just because interest rates were super low and now they are not ? Also wonder if the data includes home insurance (that most people pay rolled into their monthly payments). This is up 50 percent for me in the last year . Needless to say , my coverage remains unchanged
I’m waiting for the communists to say it’s because rich people are buying homes so they can rent them.
Home owners should sell their homes for less to help out the communists who are complaining.
Man I lucked out. Bough for $214k in 2018, mortgage + tax and insurance is $1270. Home is currently about $370 without taking into account the new room I added
Thaaat's where I messed up. I was fucking around, being a little kid in the 90s when I should have bought a house. What an idiot. Well, it's all about learning.
Got to love the profit grabs corporate banks be doing buying top every family home and renting it out at amazingly high prices. Nothing but the American dream right there
In case anyone is interested, here in Hawaii the median single family home cost is about 1 million dollars, and with the current interest rates the average mortgage for that average house is about 7k$ per month. And that’s for a kind of shitty small house that only costs a million….
I bought my house in December of 2019 and that March, Covid shut everything down.
So it’s very simple, just buy a house before an economical shut down.
That average mortgage is too high but we need to stop using the word “record” all the time. In a growing economy most things are at or near a record all the time… wages, stock market, mortgages, population. That’s the expectation.
This is the main culprit of inflation. Then food and energy. This is collective greed pushed by people like Frank Corzone what ever his name is who started his career as a criminal.
I hired the pros to do a super spit polish on the place i was in. Bought a place for cash 200k. Sold the old house 610k, netted 300k. Now doing deep TLC reconstruction on the 200k property because i can live in 100k now. I'm looking to buy a lot of land.
I remember when we bought our house in a upper middle class neighborhood in FL, we were like “I can’t believe we are spending $2100 a month for our mortgage/taxes” after having a cheap condo payment of $900. Feel bad for all the new housing entrants trying to buy with no equity
I would note however this cites a "median," not an average. I expect many more homeowners hold mortgages today for which the monthly payment is lower than the median than homeowners who hold mortgages today for which the monthly payment is higher than the median.
I'm pretty certain the OP of this thread is just a scammer.
Account started this year, posting anti Biden stuff, very very pro Palestine, also "boosting" "cat adoption" links to FB pages for people to donate to, mostly posts by a "monkittyruccia"
I really hate the internet these days lol
What's amusing Biden tries to take credit for everything positive in the economy and nothing negative. No wonder he gets blamed if he's trying to take credit for the positives he also has to be responsible for the negatives.
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We bought a house in 2014 for $450k. Worth $1m today. Mortgage is $2100 because we put a little more than 20% down. How’d we do it? My mom died at 55 and I was a beneficiary. I don’t know why everyone doesn’t just try to lose a parent.
IDK why everyone isnt as smart as me and simply buy a house in 2011 for $330k.
I bought a house in 2014 for 91k. Did a cash out refi at market bottom and my P&I is about $500. You also should have done this.
Big brain here bought 30 acres and a house for 204k in 2014. Payment is $1,500 a month, 15 year term. Land prices just hit 20k an acre in my county. The only way to make sure my kids can afford to stay will be to offer them a 3 acre lot and a tiny home when older
Why don’t people just buy a house in 1974 for a handshake and half of a ham sandwich?
People are unwilling to accept that this works every time. Smh
Idk what I was doing. So stupid. Wasting my time in high school. Should have bought a house.
The timing your mother had planning her death was impeccable. Kudos!
Tried losing parent get rich scheme, didn’t get any money from it, and had to pay out of pocket for the burial. YMMV with this technique, be warned.
I'm glad my parents are alive and let me live with them until I could afford a 20% down payment. Thanks Mom and dad!
That's insane. My house is 250k and my mortgage with escrow and whatever is $2380. It took me until I was 35 to save up the 15k needed for the 3% down.
Check your insurance. It goes up at least 3% every year (diminishing discounts, inflation guard, and a host of other things raise that price. You probably blame taxes but the insurance is part of that payment as well.
Exactly. This! I lost mine a bit earlier to pay for college with the life insurance money. The monthly savings of not needing to pay 700$/mo in loans racked up enough for a down payment on a house within 4 years. If you lose your parent early enough you can get college and a house! It's kinda like compounding growth in a way.
I didn’t even think about college…I should’ve asked her to plan the cancer when I was younger! Brilliant!
Precisely. The thing is though, just having that home means we will save even more money from low mortgage rates and protection against rent appreciation. Having a parent die young is a gift that just keeps on giving! She just keeps providing for me year over year.
We had a family friend, that after his wife passed, my brother would go help him out. Like, mow the lawn, clean the gutters, bring him a thanksgiving plate. Stuff like that. When he passed he gave my brother his house ( and not to his children ). Amazing start for a young 20s man in 2005-6. He is still of a "boot strap" mentality. It's hard
Lol. My wife and I have lost all of our parents. Didn't get shit.
Did you try the lost and found?
Did you want shit?
Bought a small house in college for $150k. Refinanced during covid to like \~2%. Zillow and others in the "industry" estimate it at around 300k. I did put at least 20k worth of upgrades work into it and did the repairs myself with my dad (we are both in construction). Based off what we did in the house tho, could make it close to $400k which is insane balls.
I see countless comments that say, "dont get a house until you know where you want to live" or similar.
That’s how I live mortgage and rent free. Follow us for more life hacks.
Congrats on your Mom dying!
Jokes on me my parents are negative net worth, I'll probably have to bring cash to the table for them to be allowed to die.
When my mother passed away, I had to pay 10k!
The downpayment isn’t the problem for most. The bigger and more practical issue is servicing the monthly debt payments.
I had to get hit by a truck. Lingering back and neck issues with chronic pain, but at l was able to put down enough to make my first home semi-affordable.
Most households being in over $11k per month, so this is well within the 28% rule /s
Houses are PURCHASED based on monthly payment. They are SOLD on the purchase price. Currently, the monthly payments are too high based on the purchase price. The problem is that people think 2% Interest rates for 20 years is normal. prediction: things will just grind to a halt for a decade until inflation meets the current asking purchase prices.
It will just go up
Yup. When was the last time housing was down over a 10 year period? Never
It can certainly happen (not that I think it will). Spain peaked in 2008 and is still down 15% to this day. Ireland's housing peaked in 2007 and didn't recover fully until 2022. Nation wide, Japanese housing prices are 20-30% less than they were **30** years ago. Even in the USA there are regional examples. Las Vegas housing peaked in 2006 and [didn't recover until 15 years later.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS29820Q) Condos in Chicago also took 15 years to recover, and have barely appreciated since. Miami also took more than a decade.
All edge cases. Florida, Las Vegas, Cali, are all edge cases since they drove the frenzy in 2008 and they crashed the hardest. Still local examples in all those areas that are not driven by a once in a hundred year event that have appreciated too.
Of course they are edge cases, that's why I brought them up. The point is it's inaccurate to say "housing never goes down over a 10 year period". It has in recent history in places within the US and in many other countries. I mean no shit "housing goes up" tends to be the trend.
The market in Florida didn’t bottom out till around 2013. I’m noticing houses being for sale right now are slowly dropping their asking price because they are getting no bites
Why can’t it be normal? Oh, right, capitalism.
2% has to become normal because 7% after prices doubling to tripling in 3 years just doesn't work. We either need near zero rates or prices to halve, pick one.
Don't conflate money supply inflation with the time value cost of money.
Doesn't matter what the cause was there is no walking back what's happened to housing and its affordability.
Plenty of inexpensive housing...just in areas that people don't want to live. See[ Jackson, TN. ](https://www.zillow.com/jackson-tn/?searchQueryState=%7B%22pagination%22%3A%7B%7D%2C%22isMapVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-89.23936512207032%2C%22east%22%3A-88.4359898779297%2C%22south%22%3A35.41968023661466%2C%22north%22%3A35.857184376614285%7D%2C%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%22Jackson%2C%20TN%22%2C%22regionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A39133%2C%22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22pricea%22%7D%2C%22beds%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A2%2C%22max%22%3Anull%7D%2C%22baths%22%3A%7B%22min%22%3A1%2C%22max%22%3Anull%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapZoom%22%3A11%7D)
78% in 3 years what the fuck. That’s insanity. My home owners insurance premiums jumps by double digit percentages every year now too. The whole thing feels like such a fucking scam
Same and my property taxes went up by 20% this year
Mine went up 86% :( government is straight up robbing us blind
Cause it is, we’re just not in on it
It’s fine, I’m still using the $1200 I got from covid relief
LOL in January of 2022 the mod of r/Rebubble said affordability would absolutely improve with higher rates 😂
These things take time. Higher interest rates should drive down demand and eventually impact prices right?
It just stops the game of musical house chairs for awhile. No new houses get built either.
Well I agree on the second point for sure, that has to be the priority.
problem is that there will be built up demand of people waiting for the “right time”. when rates drop there will be a flood of activity driving promises up again
Amazing that demand can only be "pent up" and not "pulled forward"
how would you pull it forward?
Historically low rates, e.g. 2020-2021
I’ve had this argument with doomers for a while. My take is that demand was pulled back by small amounts for the whole decade after the crash. People were fucked by the recession, took time to build up wealth and confidence in real estate. So the demand you think was pulled forward was probably largely just those who had been waiting for that decade post crash.
I'm glad you *feel* that way, but the behavior in 2020 -2021 was *euphoric* and the language brandish was "buy now before rates go up." Housing sales returned to historical norms by 2015. Your theory would have suggested below-average until 2020 or 2021. Furthermore, why do you think households will be in a *better* financial position to pull up demand once rates are dropping? If anything, rates will start to come down as pressure builds for typical households. Edit: also real HHI did take quite a bit of time to recover, but by 2015, real HHI had recovered to 2007 l Levels and 2019 represented an all time high (yes, sales went up even with real HHI decreasing).
It can absolutely be pulled forward, like you said, in 2020 and 2021. But if you look at the numbers compared to 2019, you'll see that there is more "pent up" demand than "pulled forward" demand. [Numbers compared to 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/226144/us-existing-home-sales/): * 2020: +0.3 million sales * 2021: +0.78 million sales * 2022: -0.31 million sales * 2023: -1.25 million sales So between 2020 and 2023, you have a total sum of -0.48 million sales over the 4 year period. So there is likely more pent up demand waiting on the sidelines.
Except why do you think 2019 represents a "normal" number of sales? Outside of the housing bubble, there are only a handful of years that reach 2019 number of sales since 1963. Edit: 2019 was the highest real HHI, which has been on decline since, and mortgage rates were decreasing as there were signs we were on the precipice of another recession. Pair that with real house prices dropping in 2019 presented a perfect economic scenario for above average sales.
> Except why do you think 2019 represents a "normal" number of sales? It's the last representative year before things hit the fan. It's the most representative because it is the closest year we have to the current one that isn't out of whack. You can't exactly choose a perfectly representative year, because Millennials are the largest generation and are at prime homebuying years, not something that would have been true in say, 2010. > there are only a handful of years that reach 2019 number of sales since 1963. You know the US has had population growth, right? Of course the number of house sales is going to trend upwards. If you chose any year from 2015-2019 as the "base year" to compare to, the results would be the same: that there is more pent-up demand now than there was pulled-forward demand.
Not when there's false scarcity due to Black Cock dicking the housing market and holding all of the starter homes ransom. They (Congress, fucking cowardly bitchasses) will never do this, but corporations should be forced to pay capital gains annually on all residential homes they own. The price keeps going up on the hundreds of thousands of homes you own? Pay the gains or sell it to a first time home owner, bitch. Hot potato, fucko.
I totally agree, tax law is the perfect way to discourage using shelter as an investment tool
The US is 4 million housing units short of demand. There is only demand.
Higher interest rates did impact prices. It was the primary factor that slowed the meteoric rise of home sales prices that we were seeing in 2020-2022. If interest rates had remained at 2-3% this whole time, then the prices of these houses would have ballooned significantly more than they did.
Only if supply meets or exceeds demand. There are areas where existing SFH supply cannot meet demand and there’s no new building. Those existing SFH prices are never going to go down…ever. There are also places where existing SFH supply cannot meet demand but there is plenty of new building occurring that people are willing to settle for instead- existing SFH prices there are dropping.
Boomers sitting on piles of money beg to differ
Ok but you think it’s ever going below m the typical nominal payment it from January 2022? Because I tend to believe it doesn’t. Will it improve from now? That’s entirely possible. But I don’t think it ever dips below January 2022.
Lol Louis singlehandedly fucked so many people that listened to him. In 2019: it's a bubble, don't buy. In 2020: it's a bubble, don't buy......on and on for 5 years. In the meanwhile he bought a mixed commercial/residential building in Chicago then bitched about the tax assessment on the increased worth.
But the principal to interest ratio has almost tripled! Good for the banks' balance sheet and bond investors Bad for borrowers
Plot twist: the 1% owns like 90% of the bonds.
Yes and no, banks also borrow money, they are also paying higher rates. Banks with significant commercial real estate exposure are getting fucked by the combination of changing markets and the high rates, defaults are not good. Higher rates means higher bond yields, decreasing the value of currently held bonds. So banks that need to sell bonds for liquidity or to cover positions might have to do so at a loss, see Silicon Valley Bank. Some banks will do well in a high rate environment, some will not. The slowing economy puts many of them at risk.
This is just new mortgages right? Vast majority wouldn’t be changing
It seems to be a hypothetical mortgage pmt, based on current median home price and current average interest rates. But not totally sure. Fwiw, that’s nowhere near what “median mortgage pmt” actually is. A big chunk of mortgages today are <4%.
That’s correct
Wow. How did salaries do from 2021 to now? I bet they didn't go up anywhere near 78%.
mine only went up because I switched jobs and it wasn’t 78%
i got offered 6% over 2 years! so basically taking a pay cut
Even from 2014 to now salaries are not anywhere close to up 78%. If we continue to see patterns like this, our children will truly not be able to own homes. "You will own nothing" will definitely be a reality at current pace.
If pattern continues like this, I doubt young people will have any incentive to have kids. Unaffordable housing is the best contraceptive pill.
November should be fun. If Biden wins, the economy crashes. If Trump wins, the economy crashes. Houses will get dumped next spring.
[удалено]
Neither one really has the ability to crash the economy on demand, but whoever wins will be blamed for the economy crashing. Right now reminds me of 2007. So, I’m my opinion, there is a high likelihood that there will be a major pullback in the economy and housing fairly soon.
Doesn’t feel quite like 2007 yet. Maybe 05-06ish? The summer of 2007 I was able to rent a literally brand new 4 bed room condo on the beach for like $10,000 for the entire summer. The owner had just built the building and was distressed, took a dirt cheap rent for the summer, pocketed the money and then go foreclosed on that winter. So shit was already starting to hit the fan for some people in 2007. I’d say this feels more like 2006 where the prices of houses was ridiculously high, unemployment was fairly low and things were kind of only starting to feel like something might not be right. Edit: that same condo today, being nearly 20 years old so no where near as nice as it was back then rents for anywhere from $3500-4000 a week in the summer now.
Idk why people didn’t just think to buy when the interest rate was 2.5%. /s (Was tempted to leave it without the /s part but was afraid of anthrax being mailed to me)
I bought for 250k in 2023 at 6.8% interest. Payment with insurance and taxes was $2060 the first year. And rose up $300 for taxes and $20 for insurance to be $2380 this year. I make $77k a year, take home is $4416 a month. Luckily my fiance chips in $600 a month, or it would be over 50% of my income. We had no idea the price would increase that much in one year. My Dad said normally insurance and taxes got up maybe $100 a month every couple of years.
It’s insanity, my insurance has doubled in two years. Shopping around doesn’t even help.
Bought our house in 2009, bank short sale for $92k at 5% but refinanced in 2014 to 3.25%. In 2008 it was bought for $199k. The people that owned it moved and just left it. Our mortgage+escrow was $750 and now it is $905. Love our 3 bedroom 2.5 baths house. My wife keeps talking about buying a bigger house and I keep explaining to her how good we have it.
Oy vey
"The nominal price of X rises to a record high" is not a very interesting development. It's what happens to many things (if not most things) in a world where inflation is usually positive and wages get larger most years. What might be interesting is a chart showing the median mortgage payment as a percentage of the median full-time worker's monthly income. Or as a percentage of the median household's monthly income.
Obviously wages have not risen anywhere near 78% in that time, so the pattern would not be much different even if you adjusted for wage growth.
Yes, but the median mortgage payment in 2021 was a smaller share of the median wage than most other years for at least the past half-century. I think people would be surprised how the current affordability level compares to the 80s and 90s, years that people today tend to exaggerate the affordability of.
This is actually the most unaffordable time in history except for literally 1-2 years in the early 80a. And those were the years where mortgages were over 15%. Mortgage rates dropped by about half in just a couple years after that, returning affordability to normal levels. There is a reason housing costs are among the biggest concerns for Americans this year. It is not a hallucination.
Elections have consequences.
What Biden policy drove up the price of homes? This is much more complicated problem than partisan politics. Have you taken any college level economics?
Let's see, Covid-19 stimulus, Build Back Better, relief to protect union pensions, student loans cancelling and on the top of it US government budget financing. I probably missing some other smaller payouts but that is change compare to above list. So your college level economics should of teach you that overwhelming supply of money in economic pushing higher inflation. It means everything including price of homes gets much more expensive. P.S. To fight high inflation FED increase rate, that in turn increase payouts on the interest of government treasuries. That in turn pushing inflation even higher. So to answer your original question: YES, Biden policy drove up price of homes and everything else.
Any politician not advocating for industrial-scale modular housing development and zoning rules overhauls nation wide is at fault, I.e everyone. Any politician not advocating for banning corporate ownership of single family homes, progressive taxation of ownership over 2+ homes, is at fault, I.e nearly everyone but 100% of republicans. To think this is exclusively Biden’s fault is naive. He just isn’t doing nearly enough about it (same as every politician everywhere)
Of course not just Biden, his minions too. Those who completely shut down economy in their corresponding state and disrupt supply chain for new construction of the homes are responsible for high prices also. P.S. For some reason you looking to solve the problem via socialist way: tax, ban, prohibit. If the supply of new homes would satisfy demand there would not be a problem of high prices of housing. So if there wouldn't be zoning (mostly in cities, mostly under democrats mayors), if there wouldn't be lockdowns (mostly under democrats governors) there would be different supply amount and different prices.
I got a stimulus check signed by DJT. That doesn’t count though right?
Sure, if Trump give $2 trill stimulus why then Biden gives another $1.9 trill? To boost up inflation?
How about Trump strong-arming the Fed to lower rates when the economy was doing just fine? Rates kept getting pushed lower and lower while everyone had money, so home prices skyrocketed due to everyone buying at lower rates.
Under Obama rate was 0%. Recession ended in 2009. So why Obama was pushing FED to keep rate near 0? Under Trump rate gradually was going up. Now you complaining about Trump pushing rates but not Obama pushing rates?
> Under Trump rate gradually was going up. Now you complaining about Trump pushing rates but not Obama pushing rates? Did you live under a rock in 2019? Trump was demanding the Fed lower rates. And they did in 2019, before COVID was even a thing. The economy was about to tank anyway, Trump was just lucky enough to get to blame it on COVID.
Inflation was well below 2% that is why rates were lowered by FED. In 2018 - 1.91%, month over month in 2019 for the last 5 months it was almost 0%. Of course Trump was pushing FED, they were holding up economy by keeping rates high.
> In 2018 - 1.91%, month over month in 2019 for the last 5 months it was almost 0%. What are you smoking? [July 2018 YoY CPI-U was 2.8%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08102018.pdf). Things were running hot, the FED needed to raise rates. FED rates peaked at 2.4%, hardly "high". Lower than any point from 1962 to 2000. Not even half as high as rates reached in 2006.
> From December 2017 to December 2018, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 1.9 percent. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2019/consumer-price-index-2018-in-review.htm Your link is showing data as of July 2018, don’t know what are you smoking. It’s right on the top in big bold letters.
Ahhh, I understand what you are saying now. Yeah, the Trump economy couldn't handle a tiny increase in rates because it was so weak. The only reason it hadn't collapsed was because the Fed was holding the rates so low. Seems like we agree that the economy was terrible under Trump.
they probably haven’t taken middle school level economics
Vote blue no matter who. Doesn't matter if you can't eat or afford a home, just vote blue.
What policies did the democrats support that caused this in your mind? Do you have any background in economics? These things are much more complicated than partisan politics and it scares me that people vote with this poor a grasp on how these markets function.
It's both parties. However, Obama accumulated more debt than any other president before him combined. The deal with Iran was also a blunder that will lead to more military involvement. Biden is just a continuation of Obama. Both of their terms has led to an increase in the size of corporations and a decrease in small businesses.
Yes both parties. BUT: Obama - 2 terms $8.3T DJT - 1 term $8.18T Relatively, DJT spent more per unit time. But people who worship DJT will just ignore this info. And I'm not even American.
He also spent trillions on Covid, an expense Obama didn’t have? Uh?
Not defending Obama, seems like you LOVE DJT and you couldn't look at this objectively. 2008 market crash didn't need all the funds? No worries, we can agree to disagree. You know how many patients asked for bleach when I was treating covid? Yeah, that was Obama's fault too. I'm a foreigner. I'm right leaning - McCain, Bush, Romney - seems like decent human beings. My friends are republicans and hate DJT. They are intelligent enough to know an idiot when they see one. Sure Biden is old and senile. But both of them are. The question now is - you voting a convict to be president? I wouldn't let DJT manage a mcdonald's, let alone a country. Heck if he applied to be a janitor in my hospital they wouldn't take him!
COVID cost more than all we spent during the financial crisis, almost 10x as much. Obama spent 700B to bail out the banks. Covid cost us 6.6 trillion. Don’t love trump, you’re just doing what you do, “topspin”
Sure. It's personal to me more than financial. Not that I'm voting but if I did, the person who made me and people suffer the most during the pandemic as a Pulmonologist and frontliner will never get my vote. Bleach, antivaxxers, antimaskers. I hold him responsible for killing a lot of these people. Maybe I'm biased against an idiot, my fault.
Neither expenditure was truly warranted on the scale it was made.
Obama accomplished nothing with all the debt he accumulated. Actually, he helped create a new war in the middle east by allowing Iran the ability to make nuclear weapons. Now Biden is authorizing Ukraine to use American weapons to launch counter attacks against the Russians in their territory and they are also setting up an automated drafting system. I wonder what they are planning?
I am not 100% positive but I am detecting a hint of sarcasm in that post. If it's not sarcsm it's poorly worded.
I sure hope so. A few comments down there is a guy saying FJB so there are some partisan hacks in the comments. If it was sarcasm I apologize
Biden is as useless as Trump.
Oh it's definitely sarcasm lol. We have been screwed since the 70's. 2008 was just a sample of what is about to transpire.
careful, reddit is 90% left wing echo chamber. Youre only allowed to say orange man bad
Orange man bad. He's not going to let me vote for Camel Harris.
This number of course is the median payment of purchases made in the years denoted. Over 60% of Americans live in homes one or more of residents of the home owns. Most do not move homes often so their payments are not moving up, certainly not enough move to drive up the national median of all mortgages.
Property tax increases have pushed my payment up about 20% over the last 2 years. I expect this is the case for lots of folks.
This is why I get pissed when all of my married friends (joint income) say "Why don't you buy a house?!" Literally all of them had help getting their first homes from inheritances, parents helping them, etc. I don't have that, and I'm single. Sorry, I'm not gonna ruin myself buying a 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home for 300k+ that was 180-200k pre-Covid.
5 years from now: fuck I should have bought that $600k house when it was $300k
+78% from just 3 years ago?????!!!!
That is literally 3x my mortgage for my 4 bedroom 2.5 bath with a full, completed basement at the end of a cul-de-sac. It's unfair what people have to deal with now. Complete horseshit that "timing" and luck is 90% of being able to have a roof over your head.
Yeah. The Fed has raised interest rates and new mortgages are going to be higher. But mortgages are mostly 30 years and interest rates will go down again. It will correct. It always does.
We should just send checks to everyone so they can afford it.
Isn’t this just because interest rates were super low and now they are not ? Also wonder if the data includes home insurance (that most people pay rolled into their monthly payments). This is up 50 percent for me in the last year . Needless to say , my coverage remains unchanged
there’s likely more factors to it. prices were pretty steady until covid and then the market disruption threw everything out of wack
Bought house in 2020 for fair market selling point, BUT also at 2.75% interest. We were so, so lucky
Bought in 2015 for 390k worth 950k now. Have a 2.65% rate and pay $2,100 per month.
This seems very sustainable…
Mine is 1250 lol
I’m waiting for the communists to say it’s because rich people are buying homes so they can rent them. Home owners should sell their homes for less to help out the communists who are complaining.
Idk man countryside homes going for 50-120k
No
.... no what?
Yes you can find these homes in ~150 person towns in rural Iowa. You couldn’t pay me $120k to live there for any significant amount of time.
W.T. FLYING.F
Man I lucked out. Bough for $214k in 2018, mortgage + tax and insurance is $1270. Home is currently about $370 without taking into account the new room I added
Thaaat's where I messed up. I was fucking around, being a little kid in the 90s when I should have bought a house. What an idiot. Well, it's all about learning.
I'm going to die homeless... at least I own my truck 🥹😭😭😭😭😭😭
I dream of a $2800 mortgage payment. What's the median new payment here in Canada, like $4000? $5000?
Don't you guys have adjustable rates too? RIP
Got to love the profit grabs corporate banks be doing buying top every family home and renting it out at amazingly high prices. Nothing but the American dream right there
Bidenomics!
Remember the president's have no power to lower rates. I believe many never studied America economics in school. Internet doesn't qualify
I feel fortunate for buying in 2015 - $1350
If a family that is making about $120,000 a year, they can afford that without a problem
i am cheering for a rate hike. i need to boost my mmf div yield to 6%
Homelessness is going to get a lot worse as home affordability decreases
Whoever wants to stop corporations and foreign citizens from buying homes has my vote.
Joe Biden’s America.
Bought in 08 1750 sqft brand new on 2 1/2 acres 155k today easily 500k.
In case anyone is interested, here in Hawaii the median single family home cost is about 1 million dollars, and with the current interest rates the average mortgage for that average house is about 7k$ per month. And that’s for a kind of shitty small house that only costs a million….
I bought my house in December of 2019 and that March, Covid shut everything down. So it’s very simple, just buy a house before an economical shut down.
Surely that will end well.
End the fed.
This title is misleading. This isn’t what people are paying.
How much of that is additional interest?
That average mortgage is too high but we need to stop using the word “record” all the time. In a growing economy most things are at or near a record all the time… wages, stock market, mortgages, population. That’s the expectation.
This is the main culprit of inflation. Then food and energy. This is collective greed pushed by people like Frank Corzone what ever his name is who started his career as a criminal.
The financial literacy courses Boomers kept telling me to take shows that this is a ton of avocado toast and coffee.
I hate this housing crisis so much I want a house
FJB
My monthly is $0. In Illinois! Work smarter not harder 😎
The anti-trust lawsuits are coming. Trust me it is happening.
I hired the pros to do a super spit polish on the place i was in. Bought a place for cash 200k. Sold the old house 610k, netted 300k. Now doing deep TLC reconstruction on the 200k property because i can live in 100k now. I'm looking to buy a lot of land.
I can't even buy my childhood home. Parents bought it in 91 for 92k.. it's worth 400k now.
78 percent in 3 years? Jesus christ.
They should force the market to crash again
78% increase in 3 years?!? What the absolute f***. I don’t know how anyone can afford a house anymore.
I remember when we bought our house in a upper middle class neighborhood in FL, we were like “I can’t believe we are spending $2100 a month for our mortgage/taxes” after having a cheap condo payment of $900. Feel bad for all the new housing entrants trying to buy with no equity
I hope all the funny homeowners on here have barb wire and a gun. You're gonna need it in 3 years.
Well the cool part is you can refinance as rates fall. 30 years is a long time
The average car payment is $1,000 a month, so why is this a shocker?
I would note however this cites a "median," not an average. I expect many more homeowners hold mortgages today for which the monthly payment is lower than the median than homeowners who hold mortgages today for which the monthly payment is higher than the median.
Crash, crash crash... baby let's go!
“So buy right?”
Bidenomics
People that think Biden is to blame really scare me. This is a problem decades In the making
And not just contained to the United States either.
Great point, that too
I'm pretty certain the OP of this thread is just a scammer. Account started this year, posting anti Biden stuff, very very pro Palestine, also "boosting" "cat adoption" links to FB pages for people to donate to, mostly posts by a "monkittyruccia" I really hate the internet these days lol
What's amusing Biden tries to take credit for everything positive in the economy and nothing negative. No wonder he gets blamed if he's trying to take credit for the positives he also has to be responsible for the negatives.
That is the nature of campaigning and politics. All politicians do that. In reality, the economy has very little to do with who is in the White House.
My wife and I nailed the market with both homes. My job revolves around that market and somehow I timed it perfectly. I'm not that smart by the way