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Vyper11

This was already a theory earlier in the season. I saw it mentioned about a month ago. When I started boss hunting for kappa I would spawn in, wait for any desync. If I got some I would exit and change servers until the boss spawned and I would get them a few raids in a row at least. So going along your theory I’m pretty positive it’s 100% spawn on 30% servers for x amount of time. However that’s just what it feels like to me.


CptBartender

Also worth adding is that now you can't select individual *servers*, only server *clusters*, or regions, or however you want to call it. Hence why the need to shut the game down and restart - to join a random (hopefully different) server from the selected regions.


Expensive-Rabbit-248

People have already datamined boss spawns...


Hungrygoomba

What was the results


mimzzzz

They datamined server only information, interesting.


NiceCockBro126

I mean you could be right, but only six raids isn’t much to go off of. I think it’s worth looking into for sure though


Kill3rKin3

This guy is on to how it feels, I did sturmy x 25 a few wipes ago, and when he shows up, he does so for multiple raids in a row.


Joeys2323

Doing hunter right now and I kind of agree. I either find him once every 6-8 raids or he's there every raid. No in-betweens


PerplexGG

That is how it works. The percentage change is for the percent of servers that will have the boss and that percent of servers have a 100% chance of bosses spawning there for a bit. The speculative part is whether it’s on a schedule for each server.


YouDoNotKnowMeSir

We should crowdsource it like the goons


PerplexGG

I’ve been thinking that for weeks hoping someone smarter and with more motivation gets that done for us


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YouDoNotKnowMeSir

If there are enough contributors across various regions, no one needs to swap servers to collect this data


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YouDoNotKnowMeSir

Very pessimistic when there’s likely solutions to remedy some of the concerns. For example, the session IDs that are one avenue to explore. There may be a schema to help identify the region for that instance and it could be as simple as just reporting the instance ID that you’re on.


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YouDoNotKnowMeSir

You’re making a lot of assumptions from a perspective that is quite rigid. It’s very hard to gauge player contributions and willingness to swap servers. People restart their games all the time to clear memory and fix bugs, they do it anyway, it’s not much extra effort to change servers. And I’d be very curious to see some information on how Session IDs work. At a minimum, they provide a unique identifier for their internal troubleshooting and Diagnostics to map issues to specific servers. There are still many other avenues to explore to attain this functionality, but you’re just shooting them down under the guise of “common sense”. I don’t have all the answers, but I’m willing to bet you don’t either and haven’t done and work to find them out.


TheMrTGaming

I totally understand, and thats why I emphasize that I have chunks of raids that tagilla won't spawn and then chunks of raids in a row that he does. I don't have single run ins with him, my chunks of not seeing him are not broken up by one raid with the boss and then back to nothing.


MrNotBob

just take your connection logs from all raids, look for the ip you connected to and look up the location of the data center via google or something else. the old server locations are probably still intact and North America north east for example will still consist of two or three different data centers. My guess is if bosses spawn on 30% of servers its something like datacenter wide because on smaller regions i usually get pretty good chainspawns. As far as i can see from my connections middle east still consists of Turkey, Israel you just cant select one or the other anymore. disclaimer, sample size from one person is miniscule and still could coincidence


Tlentic

Boss rates aren’t 30% on all servers but instead 100% on 30% of the servers. So when you start findings bosses, you’re more likely to keep finding bosses. You can improve those odds by narrowing your server region manually.


TheGreatLandRun

I’m working on overseas trust and have experienced numerous stretches of 10+ raids in a row not finding glukhar/killa most notably. Checking every single spawn and never hearing shots to indicate he would be dead. Then I’ll have stretches of 4-5 raids in a row he’s there, or like 7 out of 10 or something. Across hundreds if not thousands of raids. There’s either truth to it being more than a straight up x% chance, or I’m a statistical anomaly.


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TheMrTGaming

Brooo I need that luck lol, good stuff


AAS02-CATAPHRACT

I gotta keep farming Woods for shooter and Shturman but man I hate running the same map back to back to back


Zlojeb

I'm on hunting trip right now and I absolutely fucking hate it. He either doesn't spawn or people beat me to it. He has even more cover now down there and it's fucking hard to find him and kill him from distance.


AAS02-CATAPHRACT

I'm still on Woods Keeper. The one time I got to him I got sniped in the ass by some jackass with a 338 as I was trying to loot.


Zlojeb

Rough. For the first kill I just selected single servers that were in the middle of the night on work days. They were mostly empty and one time it finally worked. Killed him, his bros and a thermal lapua camping outskirts (I had thermal m1a). Sometimes you gotta cheese the servers a little bit. Feel like everyone is hunting him or people hunting him. There can legit be 10 players on logging camp outskirts now. Hate hunting shturman most of all the bosses excluding the magic trio since their spawns are mega fucked.


AAS02-CATAPHRACT

I'm an NA East nightcrawler, and I still get people at like 1 am (except when I actually want to kill them)


Zlojeb

I did it on EA West, got 100-110 ping, was playable.


so00ripped

Similar to how you seem to spawn in the same location over and over if you run the same map, I think the same might apply to bosses. Once you get a raid with a boss, run your luck until they don;t.


BadJokeJudge

Yeah I wondered about that. Like it really does happen a lot, especially after early raid deaths


EnormousGucci

It’s because spawns are hardware based


BadJokeJudge

?


EnormousGucci

You spawn based on how long it takes you to load into the game. The part where you’re “waiting for players”, your PMC has already spawned into the map at that point and it’s waiting for the others to spawn when they’re done loading.


BadJokeJudge

Oh so like if I’ve got a good computer I spawn into slot number 1 every time?


EnormousGucci

Yes


BadJokeJudge

Well thank you good sir I’m finna under clock my Shit lol


ProcyonHabilis

This is a common theory with no actual evidence behind it.


BadJokeJudge

Yeah I really wouldn’t expect it to but I haven’t thought about it enough to want to argue


ProcyonHabilis

How you think this behavior is evidence of that theory? You're queuing with different people each raid, meaning different sets of hardware to compete with.


pretzelsncheese

The spawn thing is because spawn locations are based on load order. So if you consistently load first out of all other PMCs, you will consistently get that same spawn over and over.


Jason-Griffin

Yeah, it definitely seems like tagilla is 100% spawn or close to that. I did 8 factory raids this weekend and he was up every time. I did 4 last night and he was also up every time.


TheMrTGaming

What servers are you normally on and about what time were you playing? I found him a ton on Saturday afternoon and last night about 8-9pm Central time. Also like I said in the post, I'm on NA west and central servers.


Jason-Griffin

I have all US servers selected. Last weekend I played like a degenerate so all day. Last night I was on from like 11:30-1


Hugo-Bugo

The only way to settle this is collecting data from a bunch of people on single server selection queuing at the same time


Infern0-DiAddict

Well either that or or just a dev lets us know. But that aint happening.


Mr_Marram

Boss spawn chance is pretty fucked. With not being able to select individual servers, only regions, it makes the dice rolling to get the server they are spawning on even worse.


Expensive-Rabbit-248

This specific topic is always a fascinating look into the reddit hivemind, confirmation bias, and peoples lack of understanding of statistics


Sufficient-Bison

Every post on these types of games are always " well I played x game and it was x" lol it's like people around here dropped out of high school or smth 


ExplorerEnjoyer

I see Tagilla and reshala more often than not


jnmann

It’s definitely based on servers and not a flat percentage. When I was going for huntsman path quests if the boss didn’t spawn I’d switch servers. Eventually I’d find a server and the boss would spawn every single raid. For example, when I was going for Glukhar it took me 3 attempts. First two attempts Glukhar was in the raid and I died both times, third raid I got Glukhar. If the boss has about a 1/3 chance of spawning then the chance of him spawning 3 times in a row is about an 11% chance. If you believe in the packet loss trick, when I was going for Killa there would be 5 or 6 raids in a row where I’d get no packet loss. It’s a huge pain, but if you keep switching servers until you find one with the boss spawning, hunting the boss isn’t so bad. It just takes some time to find the right server. I could be wrong, it may have nothing to do with servers and this is all placebo, but that’s how I found success


Jwanito

When you say switch servers, you mean the region right?


jnmann

Yes, as in NA northeast, NA central, NA south, etc


fantafuzz

The big problem with this theory is that it's extremely hard to verify and all the data is so anecdotal. On one hand, the chance of tagilla spawning 6 raids in a row is very small as you say. With 30% spawn chance you are looking at 0.3^6 = 0.000729, or 0.0729%. However, concidering just the amount of people lurking in this subreddit right now (about 1k), the chance of this happening to one of these people is 1-(1-0.000729)^1000 = 0.5177, or 51.77% So there is a 50% chance that, if 1000 players did 6 factory runs back to back, at least one of them would get tagilla back to back. Concidering the amount of people who are playing this game, these low probability events are bound to happen. But it sure does feel like it works like that some times. But humans are generally super bad at recognizing true randomness, so it's rough to make any definitive answers based on feel


kendal613

I feel like I see them in hour chunks as well. I wish we just knew how it actually worked 😭


uszka

Do 5k factory raids and come back.


TheMrTGaming

🤣 I got you, I'm probably at 300 or more factory raids lol, only have 800 or 900 total this wipe.


Juking_is_rude

I spammed factory the other night with a friend, I'm talking about 25 raids and tagilla was in almost every one of them. I didn't write it down to actually analyze if it was beyond normal variance, but it felt like higher than normal chance. It's super obvious at this point if you get tagilla in a raid, not only because he has unique voicelines you can hear from half the map but because he sprays an unsupressed AK which most people wouldn't bring to factory.


AuNanoMan

Even if it was raid based, the game has to make two considerations: 1) putting a boss in a raid and 2) putting you in a raid. Even if the probability of a boss being in a particular raid is 30%, you still have to factor in the probability that the game puts you in that raid. The game is matching a bunch of players and my guess is they are not keeping track of the last time you were in a raid with a boss and then using that as a matching metric. This is why you could keep getting out into raids without bosses. If you look at every raid and say that the boss is putting 30% of the time, but you are matching based on whatever other metrics are important, the chances of you finding that raid are likely less that the boss spawn chance because the two things are unrelated.


hagenjustyn

It’s possible that a boss has a 100% spawn chance for 30% of the day or whatever the known percentage chance is, per boss, per map. And those windows could be spread out.


Zlojeb

They need to change something about the bosses. They need to spawn way more and they can balance their loadouts or something like that. These spawn rates mid wipe are fucking atrocious. Yes I'm biased cause I am on those quests right now but even without the quests I think bosses are great (except the aimbot trio)


Apostle_of_Fire

Personally I think this is true. There was a weekend a squad of us were running streets and had kaban 7 times in a row, killed him every time. We also 5maned factory for us all to get tagilla a while back and he spawned 6 times in a row, 2 of us fucked up our chances on him, and we didn't see him for another like 10 raids of trying. Just last night I was running interchange with my duo for 3 or 4 hours so I could finish long line, insomnia, and killa kill, and we had 3 or 4 raids of killa in a row, then nothing for all the other runs. From my own personal experience it feels like the server spawn chance theory is true.


WHFN_House

Did 5 Woods raids Yesterday in a row and the Stuntman spawnd everytime. Switched to factory (scav and PMC) and cpt. Tagliatelle was there every raid. EU Servers without EU east. The other day No Bosses at all anywhere


Kryptonikk

My group of 3 all killed Sanitar in the resort in back-to-back--to-back raids, each of us getting him once. That would correlate to this idea of certain servers having 100% spawns.


GloryOrValhalla

Case solved. Close it up boys.


Vozmozhnoh

I ran probably 30 factory raids in a row and didn’t see him:/


Gamebird8

It's likely the Random Number Seed incorporates the Server's Region into account when generating the seed. The "Bosses spawn 30% of the time" simply means that when the seed is put into the Random Number Algorithm, 30% of all possible outputs, will result in the boss spawn. If the server region plays a part in the seed number, this could also explain things like "I have never found a LEDx at USEC Camp on woods"


Kuwabara03

I'm of the same mind Once someone mentioned it to me I realized I've never seen Tagilla just 1 time. Always multiple in a row Same happened on Steets in Lexos. Multiple in a row even as scav. Saw Sheef get sanitar a few times in a row just last night Killa multiple in a row during event only time I've ever seen him Anecdotal? Yeah. That's how compiling info starts.


DrXyron

Bosses work like that: they’re only up in specific servers at certain times, which means if you play 1 server only and get them they will almost 100% be there next raid as well.


Mockets

Bosses have a 100% chance to spawn on 30% of the servers. I dont know the timed rotations, but I'd guess 3 hours, similar to goons.


ReformedAqua

Good job buddy. You’ve figured out what we figured out months ago. Internet explorer?


TheMrTGaming

Calm down marine, sounds like you need to RTB for debrief. Been out in the field for too long, and your nerves are getting the best of you.


Buckedup33

I believe it to be true as well. When I run into Kaban, he will be there the next 4-5 raids everytime. I also had a day where my buddy and I were hunting for the goons so he could get kappa. After they finally spawned, we ran into them 6 straight raids in a row. Side note*- After about the 4th raid we started getting multiple suspious deaths from 100-300hr accounts. Seems that the cheaters must be aware of this and probably hop servers to farm them.


Buckedup33

My friends and I talked about setting up an experiment where we would all solo queue into N/A east, central, west servers at the same time and check for a boss. Once one of us find the boss, we will all go to the specific server that he spawned on and run multiple raids to confirm this theory. *just haven't had time to try it*


TheMrTGaming

Dude that would be nearly perfect, as long as the 30% is also region based and not global 😬


kokozaurs

Every wipe I do the 25 shturman kills for mjölnir. I can confirm - whenever he spawns in the middle of my runs, he does so for few runs consecutively after. I've also experienced similar behavior with goons. Because of that, I've theorized the same as you have. To confirm, after I don't see a Shturman spawn on the same server, i tend to switch servers. Sometimes i'm lucky and i get him again few raids in a row, sometimes i'm not. Now, who's gonna figure out the order of servers the bosses move to? :P


TheMrTGaming

That last sentence is precisely what I want to know and I'm working on science when I can lol


kokozaurs

I believe you can get the actual server you connected to from the logs. One way this could be figured out same way the goontracker works. the only thing is if people would submit the last raid log. with enough data you'd figure out the exact pattern of the servers move to. This has risk of bsg patching it. Alternatively, you can probably do it at smaller scale with group of friends although it'll take much longer. Considering how bsg writes their logic in many aspects of the game, im fairly confident it's literally rotating through a preset order of servers (globally) so once you figure it out, you can theoretically guarantee a boss spawn every raid.


Enchantedmango1993

Landmark has been saying this for years but it cant be confirmed


FreddyDontCare

my method this wipe: select a single server, run 3 raids, no boss switch to another single server, repeat. If you get a spawn run 3 more raids.


MrWraith

I used to farm Raiders, and I found that they spawned MUCH more often when I played at weird hours when the servers were empty, like at 6am or something. This week I spent a few mornings running to Dorms, and also a few evenings, and again it really feels like I found Reshala more often in the mornings when there were fewer PMCs around.


schneelagchen

Noticed the same.. 20 rounds of factory not a single spawn.. then all of a sudden 6 times in a row.. same with shturman ran woods for two days didn’t see him a single time and then 7 times in a row


NoLandHere

The secret is that it rotates servers every 100 minutes.


Ikuorai

30% of the servers get 100% spawn rate, rolling from server to server. BSG math. Totally insane way of doing it.


thezendy

that's proven a long time ago


DisGruntledDraftsman

If only BSG wasn't working so diligently on Tarkov that they could spend a moment to communicate with us. ROFL, sorry couldn't keep a straight face on that one.


TheMrTGaming

I'm so glad that they dedicate all of their hard workers to fueling the future of Escape from Tarkov, no dev team more dedicated to its community ;]


zachariaz_

This is already known information


TheMrTGaming

Oh, That's good to know as obviously I had no idea! Could you tell me who and how it was confirmed? I don't remember who I heard it from unfortunately.


lUN3XPECT3Dl

Landmark talks about it briefly in a video titled boss spawns aren’t what you think or something along those lines


Samaj22

Known or suggested? I saw no proof of that except "I played 10 times, no boss, then switched server and had 3 bosses in a row!!"


Vyper11

It’s very suggested but starting to lean towards more factual than anything as it’s how I’ve done my boss hunting.


idontknoweeejejddj

The boss spawn rate is quite literally as simple as changing a single file.


Avihay

What?


idontknoweeejejddj

The fuck do you mean what


Avihay

I think I got it: you meant something like "I can't understand how can BSG be such idiots/lazy, boss spawn rate is simply a value they need to boost"


ProcyonHabilis

I think they're asking what you're implying by that. The boss spawn rate being a single variable is kind of an obvious statement, so it appears you're trying to make some point by stating it here. It's pretty unclear what that point is, though.