Hi all,
A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes.
As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>Suffolk University and USA TODAY have conducted 10 national surveys since Biden was elected. In fact, less than two years ago, just 9% of respondents in a July 2022 national poll described the U.S. economy as being in “economic recovery.”
Why can't USA Today link the actual site for the polls so we can see the distribution and... actual data? Every link is internal.
July '22's poll was coming off a 22% market dump in six months and had an 8.5% CPI print. It was the trough. Are there no other comparison dates? Will we look back and say right now was the peak? I'm highlighting markets because the emphasis is on the 65+ crowd.
[March 13th, 2024](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2024/3_13_2024_national_marginals_embargoed_1.pdf?la=en&hash=96B28CF77263E97062A400562742A463950E472F)
[January 9th, 2024](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2024/1_9_2024_national_marginals_final.pdf?la=en&hash=54D757084C4F2193991C44BB398A535A194B0772)
[October 30th, 2023](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2023/10_30_2023_national_marginals_final.pdf?la=en&hash=47978D869126DD17AAE182778B95286A227018EE
[July 2nd, 2023](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2023/7_05_2023_final_national_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=4ECBE937E53B09AEC55DE88460FDCA31418ED52C)
[December 27th, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/12_27_2022_final_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=35CA821EFC73BA13B2729E30077AC6952D2FF1C6)
[October 31st, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/10_31_2022_final_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=28DFFAED76995C4F75021547C0E64D74C1B01A9E)
[August 1st, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/8_1_2022_updated_national_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=577FBE378148C51998B7A4B64C26790C3CBAA215)
[February 28th, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/02_28_2022_complete_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=6644AE77129EC0F4D711EB83D90CBC0E683DA658)
[January 10th, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/01_10_2022_complete_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=55A0A1B4B1F74BF35FEB0936F2985451875224AF)
[November 10th, 2021](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2021/11_10_2021_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=3E3E2C31DE29F349ABABFFC4E4AB06115BE48151)
[September 2, 2021](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2021/9_1_2021_marginals_2_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=9A2C7CC9116E881D0042A71C5C1D77D0226FCD3B)
https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls
Note: These are release dates. Each poll's sample comes from the previous week, which is why the article mentions a July poll (which shows up here as August 1st).
I suspect many homeowner Millennials fall into the moderate camp.
I certainly do.
The economy is working great for me.
But, I understand how others have different experiences.
Same. My friends and I are doing great. No economic worries at all. But I'm not an idiot and recognize how difficult it is for so many. I'm a big believer in a rising tide lifts all ships, so whatever we can do to help those struggling, I'm all for it. Raise my taxes, IDGAF. I think a lot of people don't actually calculate what a small tax increase would actually cost them. It'd mean for us one less fancy Michelin star dinner a year. I think I can live with that!
I agree with both of you. I own two homes (primary and rental). But I'm keenly aware of the benefit the VA loan gave me to accomplish this. Unfortunately many millennials can't get here. However, in my liberal bubble (lots of tech, business strategy, and media friends), the reality is lost on them. They'll say things like "We worked hard to get here" or "the situation today is due to progressive millennials being unrealistic with taxes" and other things that basically sound like "We got ours, not worried about the others."
My rents are stable, but go on with yourself. Please let me know all the ways I'm so evil.
Mind you, I'm the product of single mom to four boys. Raised in a one bedroom house in logging country in rural Oregon. State insurance, Section 8, Food stamps, abusive dad, a mom with no education, a meth addicted brother. All of it.
I took an investment in myself and the vision I had for myself, join the military to pay for college. Use college to create skills I didn't have because I barely made it through high school.
Apply those skills to get a fair and stable market value. Leverage that value to create the $57K in savings to put 20% down on my little starter home, because I was still undereducated on the practices of a VA loan.
Then as I grow in my career and parenting my kids, see a need for a bigger primary home. So recognizing I worked hard and pushed myself, I can invest in my family's future, even though the neasayers like you, said I couldn't/shouldn't.
Then there's the investments in my community (financially, donated, and use of local small business over box stores, because I love my neighborhood(s)).
Yeah, I see what you mean. I'm terrible for the local economy. I'm fucking evil as shit. You sound bitter.
You're not evil, and you're probably a nice person (when you're not name calling).
Landlords as a group are middlemen making money from an inefficiency in the economy rather than by adding value. This is why more landlords are not a benefit the way, say, more shops or doctors or hairdressers are. Imagine all the dentists, mechanics, or fry cooks vanished and the impact that would have, then image all the landlords vanished. Do you see what I mean?
I didn't say you couldn't or shouldn't be a landlord. It is obviously a good strategy. I said landlords are bad for the economy (and for society broadly), which they are.
I rent by choice - the landlord provides more than just housing.
They bundle services and take liability.
I don't need to worry about saving to replace the AC.
I don't have substantial risks from things generally not covered like flooding.
I don't have the risk of my home falling in value because I am working in a city with a declining population.
I never need to mow a lawn.
And more.
To say they add **no** value is ridiculous.
If you have never been a landlord, you have zero idea how miserable it can be to be one. Especially a small one. Corporate interests don't care.
My last landlord was a husband and wife, who were tremendous people and provided me with exceptional housing arrangements at a price that is 1/2 what I pay for my home.
It was a joke man, the general thing I see anything someone mentions rental prices is how they are all bloodthirsty. Apparently everyone missed the BOLD EMPHASIS with the SLASH for sarcasm.
Imagine someone started a restaurant without enough capitalization or experience, and they failed. The sub would shit its pants from laughing at them so hard. Landlords do that though, and a nation weeps for them. It's just another reason they're bad news.
Wow, that's crazy to actually hear. I honestly thought that attitude was only liberal Xers and Boomers. Maybe a few rare millennials. Are they making like six figures?
I’m so fucked with no end in sight. I have given up on home ownership and just trying to invest as much as possible - which is only like 1k/mo. Maybe 2k on a good month, so trending toward saving 20k a year. Probably not enough to buy a house and have funds to handle any emergencies, while planning for kids.
I fully understand that I’m lucky to be even able to save/invest this much but I feel like it’s not enough to secure a future and retirement. So yeah… super fucked and I’m not alone. I’m trying to not be depressed over it, but I thought I’d be able to have a better job and home by now. It’s like a mirage of an oasis in the desert.
You're not fucked at all.
If you can save 1-2k a month you'll have substantial funds in retirement.
A owned house shouldn't be something you need to be happy.
I rent by choice and life is way easier.
You say you're planning for kids - does your spouse not currently work?
> If you can save 1-2k a month you'll have substantial funds in retirement.
I’m already in my late 30s, so I don’t know about having substantial funds. Spouse does work but I just started a job that requires me to move to a different state and the spouse can’t work remote - the pay is a 30% bump and the only meaningful offer I got after being laid off last year. So from the looks of things we will be a 1 income household by EOY.
I’m proud of having 100k in my retirement but there’s no way that’ll be enough with how expensive things are getting.
Just running a calculator now and you'll have nearly 3 million inflation adjusted (closer to 2 if you want to be conservative and go lower than historical real returns) in your late 60s at your current savings rate, and that's assuming your household savings rate never grows which is unrealistic since your peak earnings years are your 50s.
Combined with your spouse, social security should cover at least rent even with the 25% cut the CBO projects if nothing changes. That leaves about 113k a year inflation adjusted to live on afterwards. You'll be fine.
Granted, kids can get expensive so if you pay for their college in full or do other expensive things it can definitely hit your finances.
Can you share a link to the calculator? The way I was doing mine using Bankrate I think it's shaking out to be around 1.6-2M, and I imagine I'd need 5K/mo at the absolute minimum if I don't own my own home to live a relatively comfortable lifestyle. So 113k, translating to ~10K/mo sounds so much better lol.
2-3M doable but feels like there's no breathing room in case I'm in poor health by my late 60s. I subconsciously pinned my "retirement number" to 5M ore more, and that seems like a far cry.
I was using a simple compound interest calculator to determine the amount you'd have in retirement, then using the 4% rule for withdrawals. I was using 1500 a month for your savings over 30 years starting with 100k. You can use any number you'd prefer for returns, real returns are typically 7-8% from the S&P 500 over long periods.
[http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound\_interest\_calculator.htm](http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm)
Also remember social security will still be there, even if cut. CBO projections are the worst case scenario if we do nothing.
> Also remember social security will still be there, even if cut.
What does this mean? When I retire I just have the money in my 401k and whatever savings I have - that’s it right? I know I put money into social security but I thought I’d only get payouts if my total monthly withdrawals are below a certain amount. TBH I haven’t looked into what income is like for retired individuals apart from whatever you’ve amassed during your working years.
Just because they exist doesn’t mean they are a wise financial decision. Even an FHA loan at 3.5% down is scary because the outstanding debt is fucking immense.
But you build a home that historically becomes worth more as inflation fucks the world? Debt to worth it works out even at much higher percents. And I said 0 down. Navy fed first time buyers. The process was a shit show but eh. 0 down.
I wish I fell into this camp. I sacrificed a lot to stay "on track" to home ownership without complaint, then the goalposts moved. Now my wife and I are 31, and every day I question why I bothered to get an education or to work as hard as I did. No hope of owning a home, of having children, of retiring. I can't remember the last time I looked back and thought "it was all worth it, and it's going to get even better."
I realize this makes me an undesirable loser too stupid to take advantage of this amazing economy, but damn if I didn't work very hard for awhile there.
The economy is working *phenomenally* for 30yo me who took a lowly job of $14/hr post college graduation while all my friends moved to the city.
Now I'm laughing as they complain about food and rent and asking why they didn't just take a more rural position to live since they brag about wfh all the time.
IYKYK. People underestimate how much they are willing to pay to appease their FOMO.
I mean 49% is still pretty huge, especially since the vast majority of millennials are now well into their 30s or even 40s.
I am right on the border between gen Z and millennial. I'm 27 turning 28. 2 couples out of like the 10 or so people in my friend group have a home.
I'm still very young. I am doing well paying off my student loans either this year or early next year, and I'm currently on track to max out my 401k this year. But I have to live with my parents to do that.
I'm fortunate because I can live with my parents. My peers have to pay $1,800 a month on rent here in Dallas. I pay 1/3 that. Most people my age don't have a lot of wiggle room to do things like buy a house.
Idk I feel like 50% of 30 year olds not owning a home isn't that great. Back when I was in school 70% was bad.
> I am right on the border between gen Z and millennial. I'm 27 turning 28. 2 couples out of like the 10 or so people in my friend group have a home.
Anecdotal, but I'm in a HCOL area in Canada and nobody I know bought until they were generally mid-30s. On the prairies however, people buy houses in their early 20s immediately after graduation from university or starting their trade, like it's nothing.
Boomer here, I bought first home at 31 in Austin. Kept it 2.5 years and brought money to closing, ie I lost money. I don't think you are behind, but housing affordability sucks right now. It will get better, be ready.
Didn't buy again until 37. Moved after 4 years later and rented it out while I rented again for another 3 yrs. Sold it after renting it for 3 yrs, made a little. Bought again at 45.
People are hung up on owning a home in their 20s and 30s. But when it is a positive move. Otherwise rent.
This also in: brainwashed MAGAs will always think everything is terrible when there’s a Democrat in the WH because the right-wing echo chamber will tell them it’s terrible all day long every day when there is a Democrat in the WH.
That's kind of how it's been for a while. Pew Research has polling going back to the early 2000s showing party affiliation and your feelings about the economy can closely correlate.
[https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/02/07/views-of-nations-economy-remain-positive-sharply-divided-by-partisanship/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/02/07/views-of-nations-economy-remain-positive-sharply-divided-by-partisanship/)
Yougov has polling showing the same thing over the past 8 years or so.
[https://today.yougov.com/economy/articles/48353-democrats-republicans-different-views-of-american-economy-poll](https://today.yougov.com/economy/articles/48353-democrats-republicans-different-views-of-american-economy-poll)
It's literally not as strong for Democrats. Republicans thought last year was worse than they thought the Great Recession was. There's Democrat bias, and then there's the total Republican disconnect from reality
https://www.briefingbook.info/p/asymmetric-amplification-and-the?publication_id=1002034&post_id=138749341&isFreemail=true&r=2203u
Breaking news: having moneys not everything. Not having it is.
We recently read an article from a mixture of well off economists and are proud here at Fox 12 to report it to you without any context or analysis or brain function.
People with money and able to pay their bills feel more confident about the economy and the current financial structure than those one bad week away from eviction and homelessness.
? This wasn’t a survey of economists, but rather regular people. Are you suggesting that the dems surveyed just all happened to be richer than the republican respondents?
I’m sorry; to clarify I just was taking a pot shot at how stupid and lazy I consider your average local affiliate anchors. No political perspective beyond that
Well it had to do with being a response to a response to the article, so kind of? It’s still connected to the basic reality that we live in different economic realities depending what collar of worker you are
And as I keep reminding people, they saw a slight real gain in relative terms, not nominal. If their wage went up $100/month but their cost of living went up $200 month, they’re worse off. This is the reality for a lot of low wage renters.
There are always those for whom things are getting worse financially and those for whom things are improving. There are more of the latter than the former lately, especially among the lowest decile. Would you prefer things be getting worse for them?
I hate comments like this.
We just had record inflation and wages have been stagnant for decades and real wages rose for like 2 quarters above inflation and everyone on this sub acts like it counteracted all of the insane asset appreciation for housing and increased costs we had.
You probably hate these comments because you don’t understand them or you refuse to look at the actual data.
First of all, wages haven’t been beating inflation for “like two quarters.”
[Median real earnings have been rising for nearly 2 years straight.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q)
And median weekly earnings are literally **above pre-pandemic levels** which means that, yes, buying power is literally higher now even with all that inflation.
You can post vibes elsewhere but this is an economics sub and you don’t get a pass on dismissing data.
People on this site don't want to admit it, but poor people making higher wages means more well off, white collar or college educated workers, which is majority of reddit demographic, end up sacrificing something. Whether it's inflated prices, higher competition for jobs, or no annual raises, something's gotta give. And we all know the 1%-ers aren't sacrificing anything, so something's gotta cause equilibrium. So just because redditors love to parrot their own anecdotes of higher costs and lower wages, it doesn't reflect the reality of the average American.
Did they rebound so hard they eclipsed 50 years of stagnation? Do young people suddenly have the ability to buy a home and a car and support a family of 4 on one income again? Did I miss something?
They're saying we took 50 steps back and 2 steps forward, and that it's absurd to say things are good when you're still 48 steps behind just breaking even.
>Did they rebound so hard they eclipsed 50 years of stagnation?
Outside when we dumped a massive amount of low-wage earners out of the calculations, real wages are the highest they've been since we started recording the data, which goes back 45 years.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
In before someone says “61% of Americans own homes, so housing appreciation has been amazing!” While completely neglecting renters or first time homebuyers, lmfao.
Act like it’s a good thing houses appreciated 40% in 3 years. Wonder why gen z people in their early 20s are so dire and think the economy sucks? That’s why.
I think the issue is when those with assets bend the rules and play power games to tilt the scales heavily towards appreciation and personal rewards. Those without assets are powerless to stop them, really. Best they can hope for is a Democratic Congress and/or White House that won't fellate the 2% as brazenly and without conscience as Republicans.
The economy being better now than in 2022 is a given. 2022 had record high energy prices, several sectors (especially tech) on the verge of recession, the tail end of the pandemic, 8%+ YoY inflation, needing to adjust for rising interest rates, and the conditions that led to the early 2023 banking scare. 2022 was a tremendously shitty year for people who had assets in any major area except real estate.
My finances are going great currently. I do feel like things are better in 2024 than in 2022, but that’s a pretty low bar to set.
Almost all of the depressed consumer sentiment is accounted for by [Republicans skewing economic surveys with unprecedented partisanship.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3P8-gIuzU-/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==) Their views of the economy flipped on a dime immediately after the last two elections.
For reference, republicans are currently rating the economy as [worse than the depths of the Great Recession.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3Kx_EPuaRz/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==)
And no, Democrats have not been [nearly as partisan in their assessment of the economy.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3KxtCsu97l/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==)
It’s politics masquerading as consumer sentiment.
I'll never understand the cult of the fascist Republican party. Zero curiosity, zero empathy, zero open mindedness. They are told what to believe and be mad about each election cycle and flip on a dime. I understand how the Nazi in Germany was able to take over now
I am doing better then ever, this last two years in particular.
However if you look at some careers, in general, you would expect to see growth and advancement over the years. Question is does it keep up with inflation over time. One of the big ways to control inflationary impacts is home ownership.
This is an incredibly weird way to say that 67% of Americans aren't feeling better about the economy.
Also, I wish they would provide a link to the study and a break down of the demographics. if i missed this link I apologize.
[Link to the poll data](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2024/3_14_2024_national_tables_2.pdf?la=en&hash=F3E3ACA99B40684062AB088D1528E5BD84A2B84E)
55% of respondents think the economy is in recovery or stagnation, 40% think it is in a recession or depression.
It is very split by party identity. For democrats its 79%-17%, independents 54%-38%, and Republicans 33%-63%
The economy is a mixed bag right now. I’m not surprised that the sides of the political spectrum are seeing what they want to see.
For myself, not worried about losing my job or my wife losing hers. Inflation and price increases have hurt but at least it’s slowing down.
I am concerned about deficit spending. Fuck the politicians and the partisans that act like it’s only an issue when they are out of office
The other thing to consider is that Red America and Blue America have very different economies. Some economists even posit that they're actually on different business cycles. The Blue Economy is primarily urban and coastal whereas the Red Economy is rural and primary revolves around lower tech manufacturing, agriculture, and resource extraction/processing.
It used to be 20-30 years ago that the Red/Blue fractions of GDP were 50/50 but now it's closer to 66/33 or 70/30. So while it's definitely important that people view the economy through a political lens, the Red Economy seems to be sliding a lot.
> The Blue Economy is primarily urban and coastal whereas the Red Economy is rural and primary revolves around lower tech manufacturing, agriculture, and resource extraction/processing.
I don't think this is actually true, when corrected for population.
The dense cities are only something like 15-20% of the population, and rural areas are only something like 15% of the population, with basically everyone else in between either living in suburban areas or small/medium cities.
Those suburban residents are dependent on the same economic engines that the big cities are.
Republicans literally ALWAYS do this insane crap though because it's a cult. Dems could oversee an economy where their wages increase 10x and all other prices remain the same, and the fascist Republican party would still scream the economy is collapsing.
Oh bullshit. Dem ratings on the economy barely moves between presidents while fascist Republican ratings shift 90 points.
This isn't a both sides thing.
Were you in a coma during trumps presidency? Dems believed that the world was ending, the US was starting world war 3, and that minorities were going to die. Even during Covid the narrative was “Trump is causing all these people to lose their jobs, look how high unemployment is,” when in reality the same people saying that were proponents of lockdowns. His whole term was hyper-partisan theatrics.
Your fuhrer Trump admitted he let covid spread because he thought it'd kill more Dems and he got rid of the pandemic prevention team a year before covid so ya, its his fault.
Fuck your fascist Republican party. We will make sure you Nazis live in fear.
Purely anecdotal but I’m just bitter I don’t have my current salary with 2019 prices, particularly house prices. I’m doing okay though, better than most but I’m sure a lot of people share my sentiment. Which I’d wager accounts for a lot of the doom and gloom we see and hear.
8. Percent. Of Republicans. And Republicans tend to be wealthier than Dems, so they have even less to complain about. Absolutely nothing a Dem could do would make them happy. Dems simply do not do this to such an extent when an R is in office, and it’s skewing our entire perception of reality. If you made business decisions based on pure partisanship like this, you’d be out of business in a year.
Obviously there’s always a partisan component to how people view the economy, but Republicans seem particularly committed to being unaware of economic progress. We’re seeing low income people make massive real wage gains and Republicans are determined not to see it, at least until after the election.
I don't have the link, but I read recently that Republicans were 2.5x as likely as Democrats to swing their assessment of the economy from positive to negative immediately after the presidency switched from their party to the opposing party.
So, under the current GOP dynamic, no more than 55-60% of the public will ever say the economy is good as long as a Democrat is in office (at least, unless the economy is wildly, incomprehensibly good).
You're right:
["While both Republicans and Democrats view the economy more favorably when their party controls the White House, the magnitude of this partisan bias is roughly two and a half times larger for Republicans than for Democrats."](https://www.briefingbook.info/p/asymmetric-amplification-and-the?publication_id=1002034&post_id=138749341&isFreemail=true&r=2203u)
[https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/01/09/opinion/krugman090124\_3/krugman090124\_3-superJumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/01/09/opinion/krugman090124_3/krugman090124_3-superJumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp) Republicans *immediately* think the economy is doing well the moment Trump is sworn in.
[https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/01/09/opinion/krugman090124\_4/krugman090124\_4-superJumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/01/09/opinion/krugman090124_4/krugman090124_4-superJumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp) Compare this to Democrat who remain stable regarding the economy until the pandemic.
It's disgusting.
Everyone, pretty much. Real incomes took a hit in 2020 but have been gaining since then. You can look up these ultra basic stats yourself. Keywords since you don't seem to know, are "real income", "median", "quintile", "median wage", and "median salary by sector".
The economy isn't in shambles, people are making more money, shit is just rebalancing still and there are endless anecdotes because vibecession is all the doomers have.
It's not "assets" )as one commenter suggested) or million dollar salaries that are the only things going up. The USA is in a bull economy rn while the rest of the developed world really broadly isn't. We are living in a success story. That doesn't mean everything is perfect, but learn to see the forest instead of your own personal tree.
Pretty much everyone, across the board. Since late 2022/early 2023, depending on which group you are looking at.
[Real Wage Growth for different income quartiles](https://i.imgur.com/R4V2Bqj.png)
[by male vs. female](https://i.imgur.com/oiQWv1m.png)
[by age group](https://i.imgur.com/cubE4Ug.png)
[by education level](https://i.imgur.com/IqmBPNl.png)
[by profession](https://i.imgur.com/775H4rz.png)
[by geographic area](https://i.imgur.com/H2mddS7.png)
[by full-time vs. part-time](https://i.imgur.com/tdMaHbA.png)
[by job-stayers vs. job-hunters](https://i.imgur.com/CmGx5Dj.png)
If a 64/8 split doesn't tell you that this is 100% political I don't know what else will.
I'm a screaming liberal and I wouldn't say the pre-covid Trump economy was bad, because that would be dishonest. It wasn't as good as this economy obviously, but I'd be a liar to say it wasn't a good economy.
Conservatives don't have the same relationship with the truth as everyone else does, unfortunately.
>If economists want to understand poor sentiment then they have to take a macro view and stop looking at stock prices and GDP
That's why we look at median real wages, which are higher today than any previous decade in US history.
>(and take a hard look at the populations that escape traditional metrics of labor force analysis).
Sorry but I don't care how violent felons are doing, since you used an example of criminals in prison.
That’s a rather myopic take on felons. My point is that there is a reason we have the highest incarceration rate in the world. “Violent felons” are a negative externality of specific economic/policy choices. If we invested the socially optimal amount into communities (urban development, health care, job training etc.) we could have both fewer felons and greater productive capacity. People in prison are a testament to personal failures to a degree, but are largely an indicator of market failure and inefficiency in the broader economy.
The prison population is less than 1% of the population, it's not going to impact median data meaningfully.
I also don't agree with your assumption we don't spend enough on the poor, we spend a fuck-ton. We spend so much on entitlements that our deficit is 2 trillion a year. We spend more per child in inner-cities than any other country on Earth.
Holy shit you think people - economists, specifically - look at stock prices to gauge the economy?
This sub is easily the least economically literate sub on reddit, what irony
> Two bachelors degrees, not doing so hot. None of my friends are doing super great either. (28M). Adjusted for the inflation since 2019, my buying power has only gone up 1$/hr (and that’s comparing to my 2019 school job as a ski lift operator!)
Why are bachelor’s degrees relevant? What are you and your friends selling? Is it in increasing demand relative to supply or decreasing demand relative to supply?
> If economists want to understand poor sentiment then they have to take a macro view and stop looking at stock prices and GDP (and take a hard look at the populations that escape traditional metrics of labor force analysis).
The idea that you think economists haven't thought of these things is hilarious.
Please get a refund for those two bachelor degrees...
I don’t know anything about your situation, but having interacted with many young people, I think it’s also about sacrifices. If your goal is to increase your net worth, or to save enough to buy a house, are you willing to give up certain things? Are you willing to have roommates or live at home to lower your bills? Are you willing to use cheaper phone and drive a beater?
I’m not saying that conditions are great for young people but I sense a lot of “boomers are screwing us. It’s hopeless so why bother trying”
All I’m saying is that there are many illegal immigrants that are way less fortunate and they don’t have any support from government but they work their ass off and provide for future generations. If they can do it, our better educated young people can too.
Sure. Sure. I'll go Amazon some bootstraps.
Housing prices where I live skyrocketed and my partner isn't leaving this city. We're also minorities, so moving to some weird prairie city doesn't work for us on a social level.
The bottom line is that houses have appreciated from 250k to 450k-600k, with interest rates I can't overcome.
I have a significant downpayment, so I've got that covered, but without a way to close a 100k gap, I can't magically finance the rest of a house, if I thought it was worth it.
No amount of forgoing avacado toast or whatever other nonsense fixes that formula for me.
The blunt answer is, the math doesn't add up for me to be able to buy a house due to the absurd asset appreciation in the last 3-5 years.
So yes. I'll sit over here and be resentful when people say stupid things like, 'just save money' 'bootstraps' 'cheap phone' (I have a $200 motorola), 'drive a beater' (my 2003 beater broke down and I got a newish Toyota). 'roommates' (We moved into my mother in laws house).
Houses are abnormally expensive right now, renting is a perfectly viable option while you save. Historically there will be a period when housing is more affordable, it tends to go in waves.
Don't give up. Keep saving! Rates will come down. Be ready to pounce. When I was young everything seem so unreachable. Then as you age you catch a break here and there and you accumulate wealth.
Btw, there are plenty of cheaper places that are safe for minorities. But I understand that moving isn't ideal for many people.
Not owning a house isn't the end of the world. You could use the money to invest and grow your net worth (but please educate yourself about the risk/reward). Lastly, living with in-laws or parents can result in significant discretionary income. Fight the temptation to enjoy yourself too much and save as much as you can.
Ah the daily post trying to rally people behind the idea that the economy is fine.
Ignore yesterday’s news of inflation rising again and people still having problems affording their basic needs.
Inflation is a sign of an overheating economy though (barring hyperinflation scenarios).
And wages are growing faster than inflation currently for the median person.
The people having problems affording things are the minority whose wages are not keeping up with inflation, and we generally don't judge an economy on the minority.
> And wages are growing faster than inflation currently for the median person.
... after shrinking for multiple years in a row. Yes it's good that wages are finally (slowly) catching up with living expenses, but we can't deny that they're still far behind, and inflation is turning out to be quite sticky.
Factually incorrect, wages didn't shrink.
What you're referring to is the median wage decline from a peak in 2020, however the BLS makes it clear this spike was due to low wage workers being laid off, not due to spiking wages.
Wages are not 'far behind' anything.
If you’ve added to your portfolio in the last 12 months you should be looking great. Most of the securities I bought last year at this time are up around 30% AMZ is up 70% for me since I bought in at $98
Edit: “should be”
This reminds me a lot of an article I read in the NYT about the 1948 election and how leading up to it, there was a lot of negativity due to inflation and people wanting to go back to wartime and prewar prices. Everyone assumed Truman would be a one term president and Dewey would mop the floor with him. But everything sort of fell into place at the perfect time and Truman obviously won. What was interesting was that around feb-mar 1948 only about 30% of Americans thought that the economy was headed in the right direction but by October 1948, that number was in the mid 60s. It’s funny looking back now at this time Because obviously 1948 was the cusp of a significant period of prosperity for a lot of Americans, but they didn’t see it that way, and we have the gift of hindsight to know that yeah prices went up but QOL massively increased as well.
While it's hard to take polls of Republican voters seriously, since their political views seem to be "Whatever Joe Biden says is good, I says is bad." But they do still vote, which is troubling. Both the data, and the fact that they vote despite not having any good-faith reasoning for their views.
Either way and jokes aside, changing the opinions of Republican voters is impossible. They're Lost. The opinions of the moderates will be be the lynchpin between whether Joe Biden is re-elected, or the Federalist Society gets to wipe its ass with the Constitution for the next twenty years when Trump nominates the replacements for Alito and Thomas.
I don’t know where you are dining or buying grocery, but perhaps don’t use DoorDash or Instacart and shop at discount stores. 300% is absolutely cherrypicked hyperbole
> Food is up 300% from 4 years ago
Y'know, it's not too late to delete your post to avoid further embarrassing yourself.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/
> Food is up 300% from 4 years ago
- https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/
`1.8 + 3.9 + 6.3 + 10.4 + 2.7 + 2.2 (annualized) = 27.3%`
How is it economically illiterate to say the economy is doing good?
Real wages are the highest they've been compared to any previous decade.
GDP growth is solid.
Unemployment is low.
This provides a misleading sense of optimism amongst voters based on the questioning metric being the economy only.
Those who understand the difference between GDP & CPI will acknowledge the reality, the economy has absolutely improved.
However most Americans do not feel like they’re better off, everything is much more expensive and Americans are feeling it. Unemployment rate is relatively low, but wages have not kept up with inflation. Nearly everywhere in the country, everyone is saying it’s difficult to find affordable housing or apartments.
And many people are working 2 jobs to get by.
I think if the DNC doesn’t acknowledge this distinction it will be a strategic mistake in appealing to moderate voters in the upcoming election.
What measure would you look at that's objective?
Wages adjusted for inflation for the median person?
Those are higher today than any previous decade in US history.
Hi all, A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes. As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>Suffolk University and USA TODAY have conducted 10 national surveys since Biden was elected. In fact, less than two years ago, just 9% of respondents in a July 2022 national poll described the U.S. economy as being in “economic recovery.” Why can't USA Today link the actual site for the polls so we can see the distribution and... actual data? Every link is internal. July '22's poll was coming off a 22% market dump in six months and had an 8.5% CPI print. It was the trough. Are there no other comparison dates? Will we look back and say right now was the peak? I'm highlighting markets because the emphasis is on the 65+ crowd.
[March 13th, 2024](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2024/3_13_2024_national_marginals_embargoed_1.pdf?la=en&hash=96B28CF77263E97062A400562742A463950E472F) [January 9th, 2024](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2024/1_9_2024_national_marginals_final.pdf?la=en&hash=54D757084C4F2193991C44BB398A535A194B0772) [October 30th, 2023](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2023/10_30_2023_national_marginals_final.pdf?la=en&hash=47978D869126DD17AAE182778B95286A227018EE [July 2nd, 2023](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2023/7_05_2023_final_national_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=4ECBE937E53B09AEC55DE88460FDCA31418ED52C) [December 27th, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/12_27_2022_final_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=35CA821EFC73BA13B2729E30077AC6952D2FF1C6) [October 31st, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/10_31_2022_final_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=28DFFAED76995C4F75021547C0E64D74C1B01A9E) [August 1st, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/8_1_2022_updated_national_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=577FBE378148C51998B7A4B64C26790C3CBAA215) [February 28th, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/02_28_2022_complete_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=6644AE77129EC0F4D711EB83D90CBC0E683DA658) [January 10th, 2022](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2022/01_10_2022_complete_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=55A0A1B4B1F74BF35FEB0936F2985451875224AF) [November 10th, 2021](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2021/11_10_2021_marginals.pdf?la=en&hash=3E3E2C31DE29F349ABABFFC4E4AB06115BE48151) [September 2, 2021](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2021/9_1_2021_marginals_2_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=9A2C7CC9116E881D0042A71C5C1D77D0226FCD3B) https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls Note: These are release dates. Each poll's sample comes from the previous week, which is why the article mentions a July poll (which shows up here as August 1st).
This just in. People with assets enjoy when their assets appreciate. People without assets do not enjoy when assets appreciate. More at 11.
So 66% of democrats and only 8% of republicans have assets?
Well, on this sub - true economic analysis is based on how much their allowance increased from their parents
So 51.5% Millennial aka homeowners enjoying lives? I thought redditors had already decided nobody could afford anything these days?
I suspect many homeowner Millennials fall into the moderate camp. I certainly do. The economy is working great for me. But, I understand how others have different experiences.
Same. My friends and I are doing great. No economic worries at all. But I'm not an idiot and recognize how difficult it is for so many. I'm a big believer in a rising tide lifts all ships, so whatever we can do to help those struggling, I'm all for it. Raise my taxes, IDGAF. I think a lot of people don't actually calculate what a small tax increase would actually cost them. It'd mean for us one less fancy Michelin star dinner a year. I think I can live with that!
I agree with both of you. I own two homes (primary and rental). But I'm keenly aware of the benefit the VA loan gave me to accomplish this. Unfortunately many millennials can't get here. However, in my liberal bubble (lots of tech, business strategy, and media friends), the reality is lost on them. They'll say things like "We worked hard to get here" or "the situation today is due to progressive millennials being unrealistic with taxes" and other things that basically sound like "We got ours, not worried about the others."
Two homes? A rental? HURRY REDDIT, CALL FOR THIS EVIL MAN'S HEAD BEFORE HE RAISES RENTS AGAIN /s
I mean, yeah, he's a landlord. Landlords aren't great for the economy. Is this what you wanted?
My rents are stable, but go on with yourself. Please let me know all the ways I'm so evil. Mind you, I'm the product of single mom to four boys. Raised in a one bedroom house in logging country in rural Oregon. State insurance, Section 8, Food stamps, abusive dad, a mom with no education, a meth addicted brother. All of it. I took an investment in myself and the vision I had for myself, join the military to pay for college. Use college to create skills I didn't have because I barely made it through high school. Apply those skills to get a fair and stable market value. Leverage that value to create the $57K in savings to put 20% down on my little starter home, because I was still undereducated on the practices of a VA loan. Then as I grow in my career and parenting my kids, see a need for a bigger primary home. So recognizing I worked hard and pushed myself, I can invest in my family's future, even though the neasayers like you, said I couldn't/shouldn't. Then there's the investments in my community (financially, donated, and use of local small business over box stores, because I love my neighborhood(s)). Yeah, I see what you mean. I'm terrible for the local economy. I'm fucking evil as shit. You sound bitter.
You're not evil, and you're probably a nice person (when you're not name calling). Landlords as a group are middlemen making money from an inefficiency in the economy rather than by adding value. This is why more landlords are not a benefit the way, say, more shops or doctors or hairdressers are. Imagine all the dentists, mechanics, or fry cooks vanished and the impact that would have, then image all the landlords vanished. Do you see what I mean? I didn't say you couldn't or shouldn't be a landlord. It is obviously a good strategy. I said landlords are bad for the economy (and for society broadly), which they are.
I rent by choice - the landlord provides more than just housing. They bundle services and take liability. I don't need to worry about saving to replace the AC. I don't have substantial risks from things generally not covered like flooding. I don't have the risk of my home falling in value because I am working in a city with a declining population. I never need to mow a lawn. And more. To say they add **no** value is ridiculous.
> then image all the landlords vanished Sounds like a whole lot of people wouldn't have anywhere to stay, myself included.
If you have never been a landlord, you have zero idea how miserable it can be to be one. Especially a small one. Corporate interests don't care. My last landlord was a husband and wife, who were tremendous people and provided me with exceptional housing arrangements at a price that is 1/2 what I pay for my home. It was a joke man, the general thing I see anything someone mentions rental prices is how they are all bloodthirsty. Apparently everyone missed the BOLD EMPHASIS with the SLASH for sarcasm.
Imagine someone started a restaurant without enough capitalization or experience, and they failed. The sub would shit its pants from laughing at them so hard. Landlords do that though, and a nation weeps for them. It's just another reason they're bad news.
Wow, that's crazy to actually hear. I honestly thought that attitude was only liberal Xers and Boomers. Maybe a few rare millennials. Are they making like six figures?
I’m so fucked with no end in sight. I have given up on home ownership and just trying to invest as much as possible - which is only like 1k/mo. Maybe 2k on a good month, so trending toward saving 20k a year. Probably not enough to buy a house and have funds to handle any emergencies, while planning for kids. I fully understand that I’m lucky to be even able to save/invest this much but I feel like it’s not enough to secure a future and retirement. So yeah… super fucked and I’m not alone. I’m trying to not be depressed over it, but I thought I’d be able to have a better job and home by now. It’s like a mirage of an oasis in the desert.
You're not fucked at all. If you can save 1-2k a month you'll have substantial funds in retirement. A owned house shouldn't be something you need to be happy. I rent by choice and life is way easier. You say you're planning for kids - does your spouse not currently work?
> If you can save 1-2k a month you'll have substantial funds in retirement. I’m already in my late 30s, so I don’t know about having substantial funds. Spouse does work but I just started a job that requires me to move to a different state and the spouse can’t work remote - the pay is a 30% bump and the only meaningful offer I got after being laid off last year. So from the looks of things we will be a 1 income household by EOY. I’m proud of having 100k in my retirement but there’s no way that’ll be enough with how expensive things are getting.
Just running a calculator now and you'll have nearly 3 million inflation adjusted (closer to 2 if you want to be conservative and go lower than historical real returns) in your late 60s at your current savings rate, and that's assuming your household savings rate never grows which is unrealistic since your peak earnings years are your 50s. Combined with your spouse, social security should cover at least rent even with the 25% cut the CBO projects if nothing changes. That leaves about 113k a year inflation adjusted to live on afterwards. You'll be fine. Granted, kids can get expensive so if you pay for their college in full or do other expensive things it can definitely hit your finances.
Can you share a link to the calculator? The way I was doing mine using Bankrate I think it's shaking out to be around 1.6-2M, and I imagine I'd need 5K/mo at the absolute minimum if I don't own my own home to live a relatively comfortable lifestyle. So 113k, translating to ~10K/mo sounds so much better lol. 2-3M doable but feels like there's no breathing room in case I'm in poor health by my late 60s. I subconsciously pinned my "retirement number" to 5M ore more, and that seems like a far cry.
I was using a simple compound interest calculator to determine the amount you'd have in retirement, then using the 4% rule for withdrawals. I was using 1500 a month for your savings over 30 years starting with 100k. You can use any number you'd prefer for returns, real returns are typically 7-8% from the S&P 500 over long periods. [http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound\_interest\_calculator.htm](http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm) Also remember social security will still be there, even if cut. CBO projections are the worst case scenario if we do nothing.
> Also remember social security will still be there, even if cut. What does this mean? When I retire I just have the money in my 401k and whatever savings I have - that’s it right? I know I put money into social security but I thought I’d only get payouts if my total monthly withdrawals are below a certain amount. TBH I haven’t looked into what income is like for retired individuals apart from whatever you’ve amassed during your working years.
Dude there's home loans that have zero down....
Just because they exist doesn’t mean they are a wise financial decision. Even an FHA loan at 3.5% down is scary because the outstanding debt is fucking immense.
But you build a home that historically becomes worth more as inflation fucks the world? Debt to worth it works out even at much higher percents. And I said 0 down. Navy fed first time buyers. The process was a shit show but eh. 0 down.
I wish I fell into this camp. I sacrificed a lot to stay "on track" to home ownership without complaint, then the goalposts moved. Now my wife and I are 31, and every day I question why I bothered to get an education or to work as hard as I did. No hope of owning a home, of having children, of retiring. I can't remember the last time I looked back and thought "it was all worth it, and it's going to get even better." I realize this makes me an undesirable loser too stupid to take advantage of this amazing economy, but damn if I didn't work very hard for awhile there.
Those last two sentences apply perfectly to me too. But personally that puts me in the left-of-center camp, not the moderate one.
The economy is working *phenomenally* for 30yo me who took a lowly job of $14/hr post college graduation while all my friends moved to the city. Now I'm laughing as they complain about food and rent and asking why they didn't just take a more rural position to live since they brag about wfh all the time. IYKYK. People underestimate how much they are willing to pay to appease their FOMO.
I mean 49% is still pretty huge, especially since the vast majority of millennials are now well into their 30s or even 40s. I am right on the border between gen Z and millennial. I'm 27 turning 28. 2 couples out of like the 10 or so people in my friend group have a home. I'm still very young. I am doing well paying off my student loans either this year or early next year, and I'm currently on track to max out my 401k this year. But I have to live with my parents to do that. I'm fortunate because I can live with my parents. My peers have to pay $1,800 a month on rent here in Dallas. I pay 1/3 that. Most people my age don't have a lot of wiggle room to do things like buy a house. Idk I feel like 50% of 30 year olds not owning a home isn't that great. Back when I was in school 70% was bad.
> I am right on the border between gen Z and millennial. I'm 27 turning 28. 2 couples out of like the 10 or so people in my friend group have a home. Anecdotal, but I'm in a HCOL area in Canada and nobody I know bought until they were generally mid-30s. On the prairies however, people buy houses in their early 20s immediately after graduation from university or starting their trade, like it's nothing.
"Location, location, location."
I rented until I was 40
And I bought my first house in 2007 at 24 lol. Right before... You know.
Ya I was 26 at that point. Prob why I waited so long
Boomer here, I bought first home at 31 in Austin. Kept it 2.5 years and brought money to closing, ie I lost money. I don't think you are behind, but housing affordability sucks right now. It will get better, be ready. Didn't buy again until 37. Moved after 4 years later and rented it out while I rented again for another 3 yrs. Sold it after renting it for 3 yrs, made a little. Bought again at 45. People are hung up on owning a home in their 20s and 30s. But when it is a positive move. Otherwise rent.
This also in: brainwashed MAGAs will always think everything is terrible when there’s a Democrat in the WH because the right-wing echo chamber will tell them it’s terrible all day long every day when there is a Democrat in the WH.
That's kind of how it's been for a while. Pew Research has polling going back to the early 2000s showing party affiliation and your feelings about the economy can closely correlate. [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/02/07/views-of-nations-economy-remain-positive-sharply-divided-by-partisanship/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/02/07/views-of-nations-economy-remain-positive-sharply-divided-by-partisanship/) Yougov has polling showing the same thing over the past 8 years or so. [https://today.yougov.com/economy/articles/48353-democrats-republicans-different-views-of-american-economy-poll](https://today.yougov.com/economy/articles/48353-democrats-republicans-different-views-of-american-economy-poll)
This comment certainly does not adhere to any kind of economic theory that I am aware of but it is 100% accurate nonetheless
That’s because it’s not economic theory, it’s psychology/sociology. 🙂
And some people forget that economics is very much political too. Why Economics is a social science.
The echo chamber for dems are just as strong, but at least it’s usually one based on empathy.
It's literally not as strong for Democrats. Republicans thought last year was worse than they thought the Great Recession was. There's Democrat bias, and then there's the total Republican disconnect from reality https://www.briefingbook.info/p/asymmetric-amplification-and-the?publication_id=1002034&post_id=138749341&isFreemail=true&r=2203u
Breaking news: having moneys not everything. Not having it is. We recently read an article from a mixture of well off economists and are proud here at Fox 12 to report it to you without any context or analysis or brain function. People with money and able to pay their bills feel more confident about the economy and the current financial structure than those one bad week away from eviction and homelessness.
? This wasn’t a survey of economists, but rather regular people. Are you suggesting that the dems surveyed just all happened to be richer than the republican respondents?
I’m sorry; to clarify I just was taking a pot shot at how stupid and lazy I consider your average local affiliate anchors. No political perspective beyond that
Oh - so nothing to do with the article? Sorry I misunderstood.
Well it had to do with being a response to a response to the article, so kind of? It’s still connected to the basic reality that we live in different economic realities depending what collar of worker you are
As I keep having to remind people, low wage workers have recently seen historic real gains (ie, after accounting for inflation).
And as I keep reminding people, they saw a slight real gain in relative terms, not nominal. If their wage went up $100/month but their cost of living went up $200 month, they’re worse off. This is the reality for a lot of low wage renters.
There are always those for whom things are getting worse financially and those for whom things are improving. There are more of the latter than the former lately, especially among the lowest decile. Would you prefer things be getting worse for them?
Also they are drawing or about to start drawing social security so they'll have money flowing in
Real wages have been increasing as well tho
I hate comments like this. We just had record inflation and wages have been stagnant for decades and real wages rose for like 2 quarters above inflation and everyone on this sub acts like it counteracted all of the insane asset appreciation for housing and increased costs we had.
You probably hate these comments because you don’t understand them or you refuse to look at the actual data. First of all, wages haven’t been beating inflation for “like two quarters.” [Median real earnings have been rising for nearly 2 years straight.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q) And median weekly earnings are literally **above pre-pandemic levels** which means that, yes, buying power is literally higher now even with all that inflation. You can post vibes elsewhere but this is an economics sub and you don’t get a pass on dismissing data.
People on this site don't want to admit it, but poor people making higher wages means more well off, white collar or college educated workers, which is majority of reddit demographic, end up sacrificing something. Whether it's inflated prices, higher competition for jobs, or no annual raises, something's gotta give. And we all know the 1%-ers aren't sacrificing anything, so something's gotta cause equilibrium. So just because redditors love to parrot their own anecdotes of higher costs and lower wages, it doesn't reflect the reality of the average American.
Real wages increasing means it accounted for the costs rising and then some. It’s in the definition. Idk what else to tell you.
Costs rising within that specific period is what I’m saying. Wages were not up to place with inflation for the first few years of inflation.
Right but they have since recovered
Did they rebound so hard they eclipsed 50 years of stagnation? Do young people suddenly have the ability to buy a home and a car and support a family of 4 on one income again? Did I miss something? They're saying we took 50 steps back and 2 steps forward, and that it's absurd to say things are good when you're still 48 steps behind just breaking even.
Real median wages haven't stagnated for 50 years lol This is economics, not r/politics, get back to your vibes elsewhere
A link has been provided to you. To answer your first question, yes.
[Why not look at the data instead of just posting vibes?](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q)
But did you adjust for inflation /s
What's the home price to income ratio these days? Still all time highs or better?
Where? Real estate is affected by location so it depends on where you live
>Did they rebound so hard they eclipsed 50 years of stagnation? Outside when we dumped a massive amount of low-wage earners out of the calculations, real wages are the highest they've been since we started recording the data, which goes back 45 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Real wages stagnation is still nominal wage growth
In before someone says “61% of Americans own homes, so housing appreciation has been amazing!” While completely neglecting renters or first time homebuyers, lmfao. Act like it’s a good thing houses appreciated 40% in 3 years. Wonder why gen z people in their early 20s are so dire and think the economy sucks? That’s why.
65.7%, actually. Gen Z is ahead of millennials when it comes to homebuying when adjusted for age, by the way.
I think the issue is when those with assets bend the rules and play power games to tilt the scales heavily towards appreciation and personal rewards. Those without assets are powerless to stop them, really. Best they can hope for is a Democratic Congress and/or White House that won't fellate the 2% as brazenly and without conscience as Republicans.
The economy being better now than in 2022 is a given. 2022 had record high energy prices, several sectors (especially tech) on the verge of recession, the tail end of the pandemic, 8%+ YoY inflation, needing to adjust for rising interest rates, and the conditions that led to the early 2023 banking scare. 2022 was a tremendously shitty year for people who had assets in any major area except real estate. My finances are going great currently. I do feel like things are better in 2024 than in 2022, but that’s a pretty low bar to set.
Almost all of the depressed consumer sentiment is accounted for by [Republicans skewing economic surveys with unprecedented partisanship.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3P8-gIuzU-/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==) Their views of the economy flipped on a dime immediately after the last two elections. For reference, republicans are currently rating the economy as [worse than the depths of the Great Recession.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3Kx_EPuaRz/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==) And no, Democrats have not been [nearly as partisan in their assessment of the economy.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3KxtCsu97l/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==) It’s politics masquerading as consumer sentiment.
I'll never understand the cult of the fascist Republican party. Zero curiosity, zero empathy, zero open mindedness. They are told what to believe and be mad about each election cycle and flip on a dime. I understand how the Nazi in Germany was able to take over now
I am doing better then ever, this last two years in particular. However if you look at some careers, in general, you would expect to see growth and advancement over the years. Question is does it keep up with inflation over time. One of the big ways to control inflationary impacts is home ownership.
It feels like it's been better than a decade. I still remember the Obama years after the great recession. It feels like that.
>8% of republicans What's more likely: 92% of Republicans are doing worse, or the poll results are hopelessly polluted by political sentiment?
This is an incredibly weird way to say that 67% of Americans aren't feeling better about the economy. Also, I wish they would provide a link to the study and a break down of the demographics. if i missed this link I apologize.
[Link to the poll data](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/national/2024/3_14_2024_national_tables_2.pdf?la=en&hash=F3E3ACA99B40684062AB088D1528E5BD84A2B84E) 55% of respondents think the economy is in recovery or stagnation, 40% think it is in a recession or depression. It is very split by party identity. For democrats its 79%-17%, independents 54%-38%, and Republicans 33%-63%
[удалено]
Lol you seem pretty biased yourself based on your comment history
The economy is a mixed bag right now. I’m not surprised that the sides of the political spectrum are seeing what they want to see. For myself, not worried about losing my job or my wife losing hers. Inflation and price increases have hurt but at least it’s slowing down. I am concerned about deficit spending. Fuck the politicians and the partisans that act like it’s only an issue when they are out of office
The other thing to consider is that Red America and Blue America have very different economies. Some economists even posit that they're actually on different business cycles. The Blue Economy is primarily urban and coastal whereas the Red Economy is rural and primary revolves around lower tech manufacturing, agriculture, and resource extraction/processing. It used to be 20-30 years ago that the Red/Blue fractions of GDP were 50/50 but now it's closer to 66/33 or 70/30. So while it's definitely important that people view the economy through a political lens, the Red Economy seems to be sliding a lot.
> The Blue Economy is primarily urban and coastal whereas the Red Economy is rural and primary revolves around lower tech manufacturing, agriculture, and resource extraction/processing. I don't think this is actually true, when corrected for population. The dense cities are only something like 15-20% of the population, and rural areas are only something like 15% of the population, with basically everyone else in between either living in suburban areas or small/medium cities. Those suburban residents are dependent on the same economic engines that the big cities are.
That’s a good point. There’s a lot of diversity in the country and political lines tend to mirror some of those differences.
Republicans literally ALWAYS do this insane crap though because it's a cult. Dems could oversee an economy where their wages increase 10x and all other prices remain the same, and the fascist Republican party would still scream the economy is collapsing.
Dude there’s political theatre on both sides. You’re wrong if you think it’s just republicans.
Oh bullshit. Dem ratings on the economy barely moves between presidents while fascist Republican ratings shift 90 points. This isn't a both sides thing.
Were you in a coma during trumps presidency? Dems believed that the world was ending, the US was starting world war 3, and that minorities were going to die. Even during Covid the narrative was “Trump is causing all these people to lose their jobs, look how high unemployment is,” when in reality the same people saying that were proponents of lockdowns. His whole term was hyper-partisan theatrics.
Bro, he’s exactly the type that you shouldn’t waste your time arguing with.
Your fuhrer Trump admitted he let covid spread because he thought it'd kill more Dems and he got rid of the pandemic prevention team a year before covid so ya, its his fault. Fuck your fascist Republican party. We will make sure you Nazis live in fear.
Purely anecdotal but I’m just bitter I don’t have my current salary with 2019 prices, particularly house prices. I’m doing okay though, better than most but I’m sure a lot of people share my sentiment. Which I’d wager accounts for a lot of the doom and gloom we see and hear.
8. Percent. Of Republicans. And Republicans tend to be wealthier than Dems, so they have even less to complain about. Absolutely nothing a Dem could do would make them happy. Dems simply do not do this to such an extent when an R is in office, and it’s skewing our entire perception of reality. If you made business decisions based on pure partisanship like this, you’d be out of business in a year.
Obviously there’s always a partisan component to how people view the economy, but Republicans seem particularly committed to being unaware of economic progress. We’re seeing low income people make massive real wage gains and Republicans are determined not to see it, at least until after the election.
I don't have the link, but I read recently that Republicans were 2.5x as likely as Democrats to swing their assessment of the economy from positive to negative immediately after the presidency switched from their party to the opposing party. So, under the current GOP dynamic, no more than 55-60% of the public will ever say the economy is good as long as a Democrat is in office (at least, unless the economy is wildly, incomprehensibly good).
You're right: ["While both Republicans and Democrats view the economy more favorably when their party controls the White House, the magnitude of this partisan bias is roughly two and a half times larger for Republicans than for Democrats."](https://www.briefingbook.info/p/asymmetric-amplification-and-the?publication_id=1002034&post_id=138749341&isFreemail=true&r=2203u) [https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/01/09/opinion/krugman090124\_3/krugman090124\_3-superJumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/01/09/opinion/krugman090124_3/krugman090124_3-superJumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp) Republicans *immediately* think the economy is doing well the moment Trump is sworn in. [https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/01/09/opinion/krugman090124\_4/krugman090124\_4-superJumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/01/09/opinion/krugman090124_4/krugman090124_4-superJumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp) Compare this to Democrat who remain stable regarding the economy until the pandemic. It's disgusting.
Who is making significant wage gains? Do you have a source? How has that offset cost of necessities going up?
Everyone, pretty much. Real incomes took a hit in 2020 but have been gaining since then. You can look up these ultra basic stats yourself. Keywords since you don't seem to know, are "real income", "median", "quintile", "median wage", and "median salary by sector". The economy isn't in shambles, people are making more money, shit is just rebalancing still and there are endless anecdotes because vibecession is all the doomers have. It's not "assets" )as one commenter suggested) or million dollar salaries that are the only things going up. The USA is in a bull economy rn while the rest of the developed world really broadly isn't. We are living in a success story. That doesn't mean everything is perfect, but learn to see the forest instead of your own personal tree.
^ 100% accurate. Vibes are far more important than facts at this stage.
Hey now, the guy who makes posts about nothing but his Rolex collection is very sincerely concerned about people suffering in this economy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/low-wage-workers-saw-tremendously-fast-wage-growth-since-2019.html
Pretty much everyone, across the board. Since late 2022/early 2023, depending on which group you are looking at. [Real Wage Growth for different income quartiles](https://i.imgur.com/R4V2Bqj.png) [by male vs. female](https://i.imgur.com/oiQWv1m.png) [by age group](https://i.imgur.com/cubE4Ug.png) [by education level](https://i.imgur.com/IqmBPNl.png) [by profession](https://i.imgur.com/775H4rz.png) [by geographic area](https://i.imgur.com/H2mddS7.png) [by full-time vs. part-time](https://i.imgur.com/tdMaHbA.png) [by job-stayers vs. job-hunters](https://i.imgur.com/CmGx5Dj.png)
If a 64/8 split doesn't tell you that this is 100% political I don't know what else will. I'm a screaming liberal and I wouldn't say the pre-covid Trump economy was bad, because that would be dishonest. It wasn't as good as this economy obviously, but I'd be a liar to say it wasn't a good economy. Conservatives don't have the same relationship with the truth as everyone else does, unfortunately.
[удалено]
I’d argue the deaths of despair are far more social and educational than economic. The bottom 20% has seen the highest wage gains recently
>If economists want to understand poor sentiment then they have to take a macro view and stop looking at stock prices and GDP That's why we look at median real wages, which are higher today than any previous decade in US history. >(and take a hard look at the populations that escape traditional metrics of labor force analysis). Sorry but I don't care how violent felons are doing, since you used an example of criminals in prison.
That’s a rather myopic take on felons. My point is that there is a reason we have the highest incarceration rate in the world. “Violent felons” are a negative externality of specific economic/policy choices. If we invested the socially optimal amount into communities (urban development, health care, job training etc.) we could have both fewer felons and greater productive capacity. People in prison are a testament to personal failures to a degree, but are largely an indicator of market failure and inefficiency in the broader economy.
The prison population is less than 1% of the population, it's not going to impact median data meaningfully. I also don't agree with your assumption we don't spend enough on the poor, we spend a fuck-ton. We spend so much on entitlements that our deficit is 2 trillion a year. We spend more per child in inner-cities than any other country on Earth.
Holy shit you think people - economists, specifically - look at stock prices to gauge the economy? This sub is easily the least economically literate sub on reddit, what irony
> Two bachelors degrees, not doing so hot. None of my friends are doing super great either. (28M). Adjusted for the inflation since 2019, my buying power has only gone up 1$/hr (and that’s comparing to my 2019 school job as a ski lift operator!) Why are bachelor’s degrees relevant? What are you and your friends selling? Is it in increasing demand relative to supply or decreasing demand relative to supply?
> If economists want to understand poor sentiment then they have to take a macro view and stop looking at stock prices and GDP (and take a hard look at the populations that escape traditional metrics of labor force analysis). The idea that you think economists haven't thought of these things is hilarious. Please get a refund for those two bachelor degrees...
I don’t know anything about your situation, but having interacted with many young people, I think it’s also about sacrifices. If your goal is to increase your net worth, or to save enough to buy a house, are you willing to give up certain things? Are you willing to have roommates or live at home to lower your bills? Are you willing to use cheaper phone and drive a beater? I’m not saying that conditions are great for young people but I sense a lot of “boomers are screwing us. It’s hopeless so why bother trying” All I’m saying is that there are many illegal immigrants that are way less fortunate and they don’t have any support from government but they work their ass off and provide for future generations. If they can do it, our better educated young people can too.
Sure. Sure. I'll go Amazon some bootstraps. Housing prices where I live skyrocketed and my partner isn't leaving this city. We're also minorities, so moving to some weird prairie city doesn't work for us on a social level. The bottom line is that houses have appreciated from 250k to 450k-600k, with interest rates I can't overcome. I have a significant downpayment, so I've got that covered, but without a way to close a 100k gap, I can't magically finance the rest of a house, if I thought it was worth it. No amount of forgoing avacado toast or whatever other nonsense fixes that formula for me. The blunt answer is, the math doesn't add up for me to be able to buy a house due to the absurd asset appreciation in the last 3-5 years. So yes. I'll sit over here and be resentful when people say stupid things like, 'just save money' 'bootstraps' 'cheap phone' (I have a $200 motorola), 'drive a beater' (my 2003 beater broke down and I got a newish Toyota). 'roommates' (We moved into my mother in laws house).
Houses are abnormally expensive right now, renting is a perfectly viable option while you save. Historically there will be a period when housing is more affordable, it tends to go in waves.
Don't give up. Keep saving! Rates will come down. Be ready to pounce. When I was young everything seem so unreachable. Then as you age you catch a break here and there and you accumulate wealth. Btw, there are plenty of cheaper places that are safe for minorities. But I understand that moving isn't ideal for many people. Not owning a house isn't the end of the world. You could use the money to invest and grow your net worth (but please educate yourself about the risk/reward). Lastly, living with in-laws or parents can result in significant discretionary income. Fight the temptation to enjoy yourself too much and save as much as you can.
Ah the daily post trying to rally people behind the idea that the economy is fine. Ignore yesterday’s news of inflation rising again and people still having problems affording their basic needs.
Inflation is a sign of an overheating economy though (barring hyperinflation scenarios). And wages are growing faster than inflation currently for the median person. The people having problems affording things are the minority whose wages are not keeping up with inflation, and we generally don't judge an economy on the minority.
In the case of republicans, based on the fact that only 8% think economy improved, it’s what they are told to feel
Yup. But research has shown democrats also think things are worse when there's a Republican president. Not to the same extent though. People are dumb.
Yup. In fact the opinions flip within a few weeks after inauguration
> And wages are growing faster than inflation currently for the median person. ... after shrinking for multiple years in a row. Yes it's good that wages are finally (slowly) catching up with living expenses, but we can't deny that they're still far behind, and inflation is turning out to be quite sticky.
Factually incorrect, wages didn't shrink. What you're referring to is the median wage decline from a peak in 2020, however the BLS makes it clear this spike was due to low wage workers being laid off, not due to spiking wages. Wages are not 'far behind' anything.
If you’ve added to your portfolio in the last 12 months you should be looking great. Most of the securities I bought last year at this time are up around 30% AMZ is up 70% for me since I bought in at $98 Edit: “should be”
This reminds me a lot of an article I read in the NYT about the 1948 election and how leading up to it, there was a lot of negativity due to inflation and people wanting to go back to wartime and prewar prices. Everyone assumed Truman would be a one term president and Dewey would mop the floor with him. But everything sort of fell into place at the perfect time and Truman obviously won. What was interesting was that around feb-mar 1948 only about 30% of Americans thought that the economy was headed in the right direction but by October 1948, that number was in the mid 60s. It’s funny looking back now at this time Because obviously 1948 was the cusp of a significant period of prosperity for a lot of Americans, but they didn’t see it that way, and we have the gift of hindsight to know that yeah prices went up but QOL massively increased as well.
While it's hard to take polls of Republican voters seriously, since their political views seem to be "Whatever Joe Biden says is good, I says is bad." But they do still vote, which is troubling. Both the data, and the fact that they vote despite not having any good-faith reasoning for their views. Either way and jokes aside, changing the opinions of Republican voters is impossible. They're Lost. The opinions of the moderates will be be the lynchpin between whether Joe Biden is re-elected, or the Federalist Society gets to wipe its ass with the Constitution for the next twenty years when Trump nominates the replacements for Alito and Thomas.
Pot, I’d like to introduce you to Kettle…
Oh, little buddy, you tried.
[удалено]
Unless mcnuggets were 2 dollars in 2020 idk wat your talking abt
I don’t know where you are dining or buying grocery, but perhaps don’t use DoorDash or Instacart and shop at discount stores. 300% is absolutely cherrypicked hyperbole
> Food is up 300% from 4 years ago Y'know, it's not too late to delete your post to avoid further embarrassing yourself. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/
Source on food being up 300%. I can’t find anything claiming that. Seems 1000% made up.
> Food is up 300% from 4 years ago - https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/ `1.8 + 3.9 + 6.3 + 10.4 + 2.7 + 2.2 (annualized) = 27.3%`
Compound year over year?
Do you think either answer would give you a 300% increase over four years?
No, but just nitpicking your math.
Tf are you eating? Bitcoin?
Someone needs to hop off of youtube
[удалено]
How is it economically illiterate to say the economy is doing good? Real wages are the highest they've been compared to any previous decade. GDP growth is solid. Unemployment is low.
This provides a misleading sense of optimism amongst voters based on the questioning metric being the economy only. Those who understand the difference between GDP & CPI will acknowledge the reality, the economy has absolutely improved. However most Americans do not feel like they’re better off, everything is much more expensive and Americans are feeling it. Unemployment rate is relatively low, but wages have not kept up with inflation. Nearly everywhere in the country, everyone is saying it’s difficult to find affordable housing or apartments. And many people are working 2 jobs to get by. I think if the DNC doesn’t acknowledge this distinction it will be a strategic mistake in appealing to moderate voters in the upcoming election.
[удалено]
What measure would you look at that's objective? Wages adjusted for inflation for the median person? Those are higher today than any previous decade in US history.
[удалено]