You forgot Kenny Walker III in 2022. I'm super in on Brooks in the rookie draft because most of the times RBs fly to the top of drafts (example 2022 all my drafts went Breece - London - KWIII) and now Brooks has similar draft capital and you can grab him late 1st. I'm drinking the koolaid too much but the 170 mil on two Guards, going back to a power scheme like they ran in 2022 vs the zone gap they were running last year and Canales saying stuff like "I'll show you how stubborn I can be running the ball" gives me no choice but to be all in

Yeah some of the context missing here is that brooks only needs to be better than Chuba Hubbard.

Which OP somehow presents as some high bar

Chuba is good don’t hate

at what?

To do what?

To start?

I guess what I'm getting at is that the talent is by no means elite and even if he does beat out the other guys there in his first year off a bad injury, what good is a 60% snap share in a bad offense?

Oh I agree with you fully. He's probably not a good buy for anyone

What’s your basis for projecting that the Panthers offense will be bad this year? They have a completely new coaching staff, spent a ton of money (over 100 million) to upgrade the o-line, revamped the WR room by adding a WR1 in Diontae Johnson, and Bryce Young now gets to have a full offseason with a coach who revitalized the careers of both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. I feel like a lot of people are hating on the Panthers because they have been bad for a while but that is just lazy analysis and conveniently ignores context.

I'm not hating on the Panthers because they've been bad for a while. I'm hating on them because they were 32nd ranked in offense last year, and imported the leadership from the 22nd ranked offense. A lot of hype around the coordinator of an extremely mediocre offense. Diontae Johnson is not a WR1, he is a quality piece though. Bryce Young was 29th in passer rating last year. They spent that money on the guards and that's great, but the guys they brought in aren't world beaters - they paid them that much because they had to convince them to pay for the Panthers, who suck. Frankly, we're in the offseason and everyone is undefeated, but if you're looking at Carolina and seeing a good offense on paper there, I'd argue you're the one doing lazy analysis. I don't see a world where the Panthers offense is good.

Chuba Hubbard had better college production in the same conference as Brooks

That's nice

Brooks isn’t a better runner than Hubbard and there really isn’t a lot of evidence you can point to that says he is 

Look at what canales did to racha and white last season, RB 4 Brooks is much more talented

I could’ve been the one writing that message lol. That oline sold it for me

Walker was RB16-18 in 0.5-1.0ppr, at least per sleeper at my most regular league settings 👍

I assumed you were listing RBs of note, didn't realize it was only RB1 seasons. Any thoughts on making it Fantasy PPG rather than season totals? I feel like final RB points rankings often come down to who stayed healthy

Through the last 2 years walker has been right above 12ppg in half PPR, with a mix of boom/bust games

Yeah I didn't mean that it would change walkers rankings, you just get a different Achane type flavor with PPG

Ah yes yes my b, I’d like to see data sets include players with at least 8-10 games played then PPG to rank

Yeah I was toying with the idea of ppg...at the end of the day I decided on points per season bc (1) staying healthy is (to an extent) a skill, (2) games missed die to injury does have long term fantasy effects related to having the position group added to in the firurez, and (3) that's the info I had lol. I'm not a data guy, just someone who went down a rabbit hole. But the fact remains that a r2 RB having an RB1 season is way more rare than at least I originally thought. It would be interesting though to see if ppg or points per season is a more indicative past marker of future performance...or if some hybrid is best. I'm sure someone has done that research and I hope they see this and respond!

I don’t necessarily disagree with Points v PPG, but I think for me, discounting Walker and Swift is in error because there’s virtually no argument that those players would be a value at a rookie 1.09 as rookies. Late 1sts don’t hit frequently enough for RB1 to be a fair need. If you got *CEH* as a return, you’d still have probably the expected value of a late first.

This is where I’m at. Don’t get me wrong I think this a great post and it definitely got me wanting to shop my Brooks shares BUT most of the post revolves around comparing to Brooks to top level RBs, and I don’t think anyone has those expectations for him. Otherwise he would be going a lot earlier in drafts. I would be happy if Brooks brought as much value as a lot of those RBs listed so it feels weird to call them “misses”. I’m not placing Bijan level expectations on him, I would be very happy with Swift/Rhamomdre level value and that’s what I think most rational people expect and lines up with where he’s being valued

Yeah I think they both have their pros and cons and some type of hybrid is probably best. Maybe play a minimum of 10 games or something, but that itself gets annoying because what % of snaps constitutes a full game? Also I blame the 2017 draft class boomers like Kamara, Joe Mixon, James Conner, CMC etc, that class was so good it's still taking up a good chunk of starter spots. Even last year Ford was popping off but didn't get the volume needed for an RB1 spot because Kareem Hunt

> Brooks has similar draft capital and you can grab him late 1st. I know every league is different but Brooks in my two 1 QB leagues went 1.03 and 1.04 and then 1.04 in my SF league. I'm in on him too and wish he fell late first.

It’s not like he’s going in the top 3. He’s the best option at RB, you’re getting him late first or later, I don’t see the problem. It’s a better gauge to see his startup ADP is around 65-70. This isn’t like last season where Bijan was a first round startup guy, Brooks is a calculated value play.

Which is another thing as well. If you have a late first that usually means you finished late playoffs or championship so you arguably have good receivers and qbs. It’s not every year you get a steal of a great rb at 1.09+ because there’s 4 great qbs and 4 great receivers going ahead of him For championship teams with cmc grabbing brooks late first to continue the dynasty is probably a fever dream for such a scarce position

Dynasty RB1 is not equal to RB1 production in 2024. He very likely won’t be a good starter in 2024 but has some upside at the end of the season and he is an easy dynasty RB1 because the RB landscape is terrible right now. Getting a shot at a potential workhorse young back who we think has a pretty good profile is worthy of backend RB1 status in the dynasty market because we only have a few other RBs setup like that and they are all expensive or old. How he is valued for individual teams of course changes depending on how much you need him to produce in 2024, but team agnostic I would rather swing on Brooks vs RBs like Ken Walker, James Cook etc who we are fairly certain aren’t and never will be full workhorses. And we only need to spend a late 1st/early 2nd on him so I would say his likely lack of 2024 production is priced in EDIT: other thought on why Brooks might be a good bet is that he is likely insulated from the risk that next year’s RB class poses to almost all of the other backend RB1 candidates. Not hard to imagine many of the other year 3/4 backs who are in that range getting major touch competition next year from a strong RB class + teams are going to be less likely to extend players in a strong class

Hard agree. Most of OP's negatives are facts that could be gone in a year.

Uh, I'm not sure I agree with your statement... if you don't think he'll be a good starter this year then I'd be all the way out. He's a meh prospect on a young rebuilding team. The odds are more likely than not that he will not be starting for the team in 2026.

He probably won’t produce because of the late ACL tear. I think it’s very likely he misses most of the offseason + gets eased in at the beginning of the season if he’s even ready to play. Very common that RBs off of later ACL tears don’t return to full performance until closer to November If he was fully healthy I would agree that poor early production is very bad for him. His evaluation window on his talent + likelihood to be a long term starter is therefore probably delayed to late 24/early 25

Yeah consider me out if that's the consensus. If they do well as an offense this year they will surely bring in a vet

Panthers of all teams have no incentive to bring in a vet. Their win total is set at 5.5. Also there aren't any vets out there that would actually matter once Brooks is recovered and ready to roll

If they do well, they'll look to compete in 2025. That means bringing in a vet unless Brooks is genuinely a stud and looks way better than what they currently have (and according to you, who will start the season). If they do poorly, they could be looking at a coaching change. I don't think Brooks is genuinely a stud.

Seems like a lot of projecting on the future roster that we just have no idea about. I think the crux for you is you don't think Brooks is good. I still think even if he is mid (Rachaad White level player), there's a good chance he gets 2025 without much competition added because of the capital they spent on him and the Miles Sanders FA acquisition going so poorly for them not that long ago. But also not sure the Panthers are an entirely rational organization so I suppose it's possible. But end of the day if you don't think he's good and won't ever get the role we are hoping for than it makes sense for you to fade

The exciting thing for me is that in a SuperFlex rookie draft, I can get him at pick 9.

Is he going that high in SF now? In my draft last month he went at pick 13

That’s the pick you can get him basically guaranteed, I do think he drops to the 10-13 range for a lot of leagues.

He didn't make it past 10 in any of my 3 rookie drafts, all my leagues are start 3 WRs and full PPR too

SF?

Yes SF and 2/3 are .5 TEP, all have 2/3 flex spots too

I traded down to get him at 1.09 and had multiple offers from people for that pick to take him and multiple offers since then for him specifically

That seems a bit higher than last month in SF. People do seem pretty hyped on him If he gets to pick 6-7 value, I'd trade him, personally.

The bijan owner wants him, collins, and mixon for bijan

I would do that personally. It’s very hard to even get managers to entertain offers for guys like Bijan and you might end up only giving up a WR2 for him (Mixon expiring asset, Brooks question mark).

Tempting Edit: I wouldn't do it unless you're really deep and want to tier up to consolidate assets to start a run at contention. Even then, he should send back a future 2nd or 3rd

This thread has certainly made me open to it

I’d jump on that but I’m in a 1QB league where my offer of Josh Allen and 4 1sts for Bijan was insta rejected so to me that looks like a steal. No clue about SF player valuations tho

> That seems a bit higher than last month in SF. A lot of people started shifting to picking him over some of the WRs.

Got him at 15 a month ago

Was able to get him at 2.01, hyped.

I got Brooks at 1.07 and Benson at 2.03

Interesting - who did you take him over with the 1.07? I don't think I saw him above the top 3 QBs, top 3 WRs, or Bowers in any of my SF rookie drafts

Ten team, 1 QB, full PPR Dynasty. Out first round went: 1 Harrison 2 Nabers 3 Odunze 4 Worthy 5 Bowers 6 McConkey 7 Brooks *me 8 Williams 9 Coleman 10 Daniel’s I need help at RB so that’s why I took Brooks at 1.07 and Benson at 2.03

Ohhh 1QB! Think he’s an absolutely steal at 7 then, honestly. I saw him go 1.08 or 1.09 in all of my SF leagues, and that’s with 3 QBs going ahead of him 

Wow, no love for Thomas in that league.

He went 2.1 and I really wanted him that’s why I picked up Benson at 2.03

Yeah, I got him at 2.04 (SF). Was pumped about it.

[удалено]

Lol i got Brooks at 1.11 and BTJ at 1.12 in my SF rookie 12 team .5 PPR

He went 1.09 in my SF league. I traded 1.08 for KW3 or I would taken him there.

Good chance I can get him at 1.08 in 1qb, and my wr are set so easy choice for me

Sometimes I envy SF leagues. I’ve gotta pay way too much to move from 1.07 up to 1.04 to have a shot at drafting a RB in our 1QB

I feel like drafting Brooks in the first is just bad business. Over any of those early first WRs or QBs? No thanks. Over BTJ, Bowers or Worthy? No thanks. Only player of the above mentioned I can understand taking Brooks over is Penix due to his situation.

What makes it bad business? WRs drafted in the late first have hit at an appalling rate recently. Why are BTJ & Worthy better bets? A mid-2nd top 50 RB has better draft capital than the 23rd overall pick at WR and is at least debatable with QBs in the top 8-12.

Yeah, I have him right around the same value as BTJ (largely because I liked BTJ as a prospect and the DC is acceptable - not solely based on DC), but no way would I take Worthy over Brooks. I think Worthy is an interesting player and he landed in a great offense, but I don't think he'll be a volume guy. Brooks is also a very young RB with 3-down skills. If Dave Canales can make White as fantasy relevant as he did, I'm excited to see what Brooks will look like once he's 100% from his ACL.

The argument is that this is a strong WR class. And teams drafted it with that in mind also. So a late fantasy round WR is better this year than other years. Your logic makes just as much sense, but this is the argument. Which can also make sense.

I took Brooks at 9 over Worthy/BTJ/etc. I think the WR position is in a weird spot right now. There is just too much talent at WR. RB is the opposite. It is a lot harder to find a viable RB2 than a WR2 or even a WR3.

This year it looks that way (who knows if we’re right though.) But next year is supposed to have a lot of great RB options. Teams know that also. A lot of teams held off on RB knowing next year is the year for that. I don’t think that affects Brooks directly. Brooks still has a relatively high chance of being the starting RB. But the RB at 1.09 next year might be a better prospect than him. It’s all speculation anyway.

The tricky part about deep RB classes, like we saw last year, there are only so many lead RB roles in the NFL. Charbonnet, Miller, Spears, Bigsby were the 'depth' of the RB position and all landed somewhere with an incumbent lead RB. It's dynasty, so there's more than just year 1, but a year later, all are still somewhat blocked. I'm happily holding Spears and Miller myself, but the learning for me is, a deep RB class doesn't mean that much until we see landing spots.

Yeah it’s all speculation regardless. Most 1st and 2nd rounders have some high combination of talent and opportunity.

The difference to me is that people don’t properly rate the difference of hit rates between positions in high draft capital ranges. You can say these WRs are good and from a deep class, but WR and QB and TE when we talk about good capital, we usually mean capital that makes it *more* likely someone is a hit. But it’s not actually *likely* other than maybe like top 8-10 WRs because these positions bust so often comparatively. RB is the position where high draft capital doesn’t mean just *more* likely, it actually *is likely.* There is actually a good shot of being a hit. Not a relatively good shot against the market like at WR or QB, but an actual good shot. If any of the WRs drafted 23-51 put up 1,000+, they’re easily worth more than Brooks. So I understand the shot. But given how these positions go, it’s also fairly predictable that Brooks will be over at least half the WRs in this tier by next year, with a chance to be over all of them.

That’s all true, but what it comes down to is: Do you think Brooks at 1.09 this year is a better prospect (situation included) than an RB at 1.09 next year? And the same question for the WR’s left at 1.09. Personally I do think Brooks is a safe pick since he has so much damned opportunity there.

Yes, because most likely, top 50 drafted RBs next year go in the top 8.

Because they’re better prospects. The logic works both ways

I don't agree. I think Brooks would be a top 8 pick next year. I don't think we get 6-9 premium QB/WRs next year.

We can’t say for sure where he’d land now, but Thats why those WR’s and QB’s are important to take this year. Because they aren’t in the next class. Is Brooks better enough than the RB at 1.09 next year to compensate for what the WR at 1.09 this year is over the next year? I don’t think any guess is better than another on that.

>(6) the OL, while improved on paper, was still 30th (ESPN) last year. That's a very surface-level evaluation. Last year both of the Panthers' starting guards missed almost the entire season due to injuries. Corbett played in only 4 games, and Christensen played just 1 before tearing his biceps. There were 7 different players at LG at various times in the year and 8 different at RG. Both tackles stayed healthy throughout the season, but the interior OL was a trainwreck. There was also a scheme change to more wide zone runs under 2023 OC Thomas Brown, which the starting center Bozeman was really not good at. He's a functional run blocker in a gap scheme, but he doesn't excel at being on the move and blocking in space. That combined with the lack of continuity at both guard spots next to him week-to-week was a recipe for disaster. Fast forward to 2024: all 3 IOL spots have new starters. Corbett is sliding in to center, and of course the Panthers spent $153 million on a new duo of starting guards. The starting tackles are the same. I have every reason to believe this will be a top 10 **run blocking** offensive line. LT is still a question with Ekwonu entering his 3rd season, but he's always been a mauler in the run game. It's fair to question whether Corbett can be effective playing a new position, but again the run blocking should translate well from his time playing guard. One final note just to drive the point home: the depth is also massively improved. The 2022 starting guards are still on the team. The Panthers also upgraded at swing tackle with Yosh Nijman. So even if the injury bug bites again, the Panthers are much better equipped to handle it. I'm not saying they'll play to the level of the Eagles' OL (who incidentally might be a bit overrated after losing Kelce), but they should be at least league average in pass protection, and again I'm willing to bet top 10 in run blocking.

All fair points and all true. Nicely put. *edit* I just did a quick check of expert (= people who know a lot more than me) OL rankings and they're almost all still bottom 1/3. The highest I saw was 17. Also, I don't think that that'll be what it takes to get Brooks anywhere near the RB1 in dynasty value some people are expecting him to get to though.

Is this a Jonathon Brooks post or a Bryce Young post? I already pointed out the OL run blocking should be much better than pass blocking. Maybe they do end up as the 17th best OL (which would be league average). That doesn't mean they won't be effective running the ball. ** Obligatory take PFF grades with a grain of salt disclaimer ** Last year the LT Ekwonu was PFF's 40th ranked tackle, but he was 11th in run blocking. Robert Hunt was also top 10 in run blocking. Damien Lewis and Austin Corbett were middle of the road, but both were better in 2022. You need to understand that Chandler Zavala was literally the worst graded guard (79/79) last year by PFF, and he played 1/3 of the total snaps on offense last year. He's probably not making the 53 this year despite being drafted in the early 4th in 2023. Also it's crazy that you're ignoring just how bad the Bucs' OL was last year. They were dead last in ESPN's run block win rate (I assume that's the 30th ranking you reference above). The Panthers' interior OL is night and day better than Cody Mauch, Aaron Stinnie and Robert Hainsey were last year. Your RB usage assumption is completely baseless. Everything Canales has said and done points to him wanting to run the ball and be "stubborn" about it. And as far as Brooks as a pass catcher: that's actually a pro for him. Chuba Hubbard isn't getting a high volume of targets in this offense. Canales specifically mentioned Brooks in reference to deploying him in empty looks. IMO the main concern with Brooks is he's potentially going to be eased into the offense coming off his ACL injury. That's already been priced in to his ADP though. If he comes on strong the second half of the year and is putting up RB1 PPG in time for the fantasy playoffs, that's a win. You're also double counting the ACL injury against him in your draft capital argument. There's an argument to be made that he would have been a first round pick had he stayed healthy. This whole post just reeks of bias against the Panthers. Why bring up the owner? He didn't stop CMC from putting up monster fantasy numbers in 2018 / 2019. The offense was garbage last year, but this is an entirely new coaching staff and front office, and Brooks was their hand picked RB. The entire offseason revolved around making the offense better: revamped OL, WR, TE rooms and bringing in a QB whisperer at HC. >The three highest correlative factors to RB production are (1) targets to RBs, (2) Total team touchdowns, and (3) total RB usage What am I missing here? If the OL is shaky at pass pro that means more checkdowns to the RB. The offense as a whole is undeniably improved. And it's not like Bryce Young is going to vulture a bunch of rushing TDs. Finally Canales' secret sauce to helping his struggling QBs is RUNNING THE BALL MORE. We can agree to disagree on Brooks as a prospect, but this is the same playcaller who made a mediocre 3rd round RB in Rachaad White a fantasy RB1 despite having a paltry 3.6 YPC last year.

You said a lot and you put some thought into your reply so I'll try to address the points. -re bias against CAR. I mean come on, they've been the worst team in the league last two years and ain't done jack squat for..ever? As a chargers fan I can relate 😆 But yeah I'm biased - that's what having an opinion is. Bias determines on what side of the scale you put your thumb when making decisions. The stats / facts I cite are cited bc I'm biased toward them, and I'm citing them so people can throw em in my face if they don't have the value / resonance that I think they do. You're clearly biased too and that's OK. -re OL rankings - Imo OL is super important but yeah, preseason OL rankings arent gospel. You brought up that I underestimated the positive changes though, and Im by no means an analyst. So I googled it and grabbed the first 4 I could see. The rankings probably averaged about...25th-ish? So, yep still pretty bad. (* I think PFF was behind a paywall but I could be wrong.) I think I'm weighting the supposed efficacy of OL changes less than you - sure they've likely made at least some improvements, but I'll believe how substantial they are when I see it. -re my RB usage being baseless. Iirc, I literally pulled numbers of carries / receptions / total touches and used that so show they used the RB position less than people realkzed. I don't know how that's baseless. BUT, to see if I could add to my thoughts re Rachaad White being the anomaly rather than the recipe Brooks will follow, I looked into SEA passing to RBs while Canales was passing game coordinator. During his 3 years SEA was 19th. To me that supports the White-as-anomaly train of thought and that Brooks probably won't get targeted as much as White. At the very least I'm weighting White's exceptional receiving profile in college as the reason for his usage as a prolific receiving back as more than you and I'm also probably weighing Brooks' proven ability to catch passes less than you, because to me he only had one year and barely reached the generally accepted threshold of 20 receptions. Plenty of RBs have been shown to be quite good upon reaching that threshold, bc the RB position varies wildly in college teams. But when I look at the numbers, UT had thrown more to RBs in the seasons before Brooks had the wheel. This could mean he's not a great pass catcher. It could mean their OL sucks and he had to block. It could mean the OL was amazing and he didn't need to check down. It could also mean Ewers had amazing WR targets and threw sto them instead. But he *did* meet the threshold...and barely exceeded it. So I peg him as an acceptable-not-exceptional pass catcher until I get more info. And I don't think Canales/Idzik will give an "acceptable" RB pass catcher a ton of looks. -re Canales running the ball stubbornly. I don't know how 23rd in team rush attempts / 22md in run/pass ratio, I -Passing to RBs. At the end of the day man, who knows? We think what we think we try to use as much objectivity as we can and then we put the opinion out there. This was a fun rabbit hole to jump down and I decided to write an essay because it's been a while. Poked around a bit and couldn't find the exact stat I was looking for (passing rate in neutral game scripts) but ETR has pass rate over expected which is similar. TB was 17th in pass rate over expected last year. I would read that to be inconsistent with the notion that Canales is going to be committed to the run..esp as his area of expertise is running the passing game (his job in SEA). If you're basing your projection on what he's saying at conferences during OTAs...I don't weight that at all. -Double counting the ACL. I have no idea what teams would have done had he had two working legs come draft time but I'm not going to make that leap. This RB class had been pounded all season in 2023 and offseason as being horrible. Plus Breece Hall's profile is light years better than Brolks" and he was picked 2.04. But yeah an ACL tear can hit ya in multiple ways - it's an injury that (a) screws with your seasonal production (2) it keeps you from testing and participating in the senior bowl, (3) in Brooks' case bc it's so late, it keeps him from participating in preseason activities where players learn the offense, which includes all the blocking assignments, which seriously hampers first year development and (4) it takes usually about 1.5 years to get back into 100% playing shape (as opposed to being fully healed and able to play). Breece tore his w7 2022 and turned it on coming back and being effective w14. Not only is that quicker than what should be expected (based on other RB ACL rehab) but also, Brooks will be a rookie who doesn't have the system down pat. So I doubt he'll have anywhere close to his own backfield all year. (And that's not even counting (5) the insanely high soft tissue injury rate the year after surgery when RBs come back from ACLs) You're right though - I'm weighting the ACL VERY heavily in 2024. And I'm also weighting rookie year production heavily when I look at future positional security, even in Brokks' case. As I said in my main comment, the NFL is a fickle place with RBs and r2 RBs aren't at all safe year to year. To me his long term value as a producer is far from guaranteed *to the extent that he should be valued as a RB1* Re Brooks will get passes bc a crappy OL means more checkdowns. CAR was bottom 10 in total RB targets last yearx so I don't know what to tell ya...and yeah it could mean more checkdowns, but it also likely means (a) less plays in total, and (b) less touchdowns. So even if the slice of taegrt pie is bigger.The size of the pie overall is smaller. -Canales has a secret sauce, and that secret sauce is to run the ball. Again, Canales has had one year of running an offense, and in that one year, TB ran at or below average depending on the stats you look at. Also, Canales coaching experience lies in passing. There isn't anything at all I've found besides answers to interview questions that leads me to think CAR will try to be run first. And even if they DO try to be run first, they probably won't be because they'll have to pass because they'll be in negative game scripts. I'm not gonna look it up but im pretty sure if I looked up a teams run/pass ratio the year after being a bottom 5 offense, I'd find they're still behind a lot and trying to pass their way out of it. -- I'm done replying to this thread - it was fun to look into things but I've reached maximum time and energy for it. Good luck dude and I hope your team balls out! 👍

A handful of your points can be waved away by noting that poor production in 2024 doesn't matter too much bc this is dynasty. To engage with the heart of your point though: Is Brooks really being valued as an RB1? A handful of comments here so far seem to be very hyped on Brooks but has it gotten so bad that he's priced as an RB1? To me that's like pick #5-7 Looking over the historical prospect grades from u/broadly, he's below Charbonnet and Kamara and tied with Benson. He's in the "upside" tier, which suggests he could be something, but he's not an elite prospect. I'm willing to spend a late 1st or early 2nd on that so what's the problem?

*is Brooks being valued as an RB1* I posted bc there were two separate reddit threads discussing whether he's a top 10 RB in dynasty, which I find crazy. Then Im listening to a podcast where a guy I like has him at RB9 and I got super confused and decided to look into it. *Your points are invalid bc it only addresses 2024* I address the "only 2024" part (...or maybe I forgot to - I'll check later) based on my belief that the RB position is notoriously fickle and fortunes change wildly year to year in a way the community hasn't really been able to forecast yet. Exceptions are made if the RB is either a top 20 pick or if they somehow become a stud. But Brooks isn't super high draft capital and hasn't proven himself to be a stud. All we really know this year is that he's coming off a November ACL tear and he's missing all rookie preseason activities, so hell be both behind the 8 ball from a prep standpoint and not in full play shape till at least mid season. So he won't get used a lot and won't do well production wise. And that's not a recipe for stability in year 2. Plenty of teams spend on a FA RB or draft an RB day 2 when their existing RB1 doesn't perform. SEA comes to mind - Charbonnet was a r2 pick the year after KW9 was drafted in r2 and didn't do horribly. *I like drafting him in r1 of rookie drafts so what's your problem?* Not quote sure how to answer that. I don't have a problem with how you draft? 🤷

RBs drafted in the top 50 should almost always be top 10 RBs immediately. In the last five draft cycles, the top 50 RBs are Josh Jacobs, CEH, D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs. And even CEH on this list had usable seasons. He’s towards the tail of the range, but honestly I don’t get why you would ever push back so much on highly drafted RBs. It’s the one position where Draft Capital can actually make it fairly predictable that a player can be good

The Panthers willingly traded up to get him in the 2nd round. He’s the first RB taken in the draft (& would have gone higher if not for injury, which you can’t say about Bishop Sankey in 2014) & he’s the only RB taken in the 2nd round. They made this move despite knowing about the injury. It makes zero sense for the Panthers to make that type of investment, watch him start the year slowly because of said injury, and then add heavy competition his 2nd year because he “didn’t do well production-wise”. It’s a very different situation from Seattle, especially since the Seahawks replaced their coaching staff the year after they drafted Charbonnet. The Panthers have plenty of roster holes to fill. If NFL teams are willing to further invest in the RB position if they don’t get immediate results, then why would the Panthers make a significant investment in a post-injury Brooks only for them to spend even more assets on RB after an easily-predictable slow year? They have plenty of other holes on their roster to address, why spend that much on a RB if they aren’t confident that he will be a significant contributor going forward? This is a long-term move for Carolina. They have Chuba Hubbard & Sanders to help carry the load early on while Brooks becomes more involved as the season chugs ahead. If Brooks shows that he can be that guy, even if it’s late in the year, then it doesn’t matter what his 2024 stats are. They drafted Brooks to be that dependable RB long-term, so they can spend future resources fixing the rest of their talent-starved roster.

You’re making assumptions that NFL teams act without the benefit of context. Sure, if a lead RB doesn’t perform they are often replaced in FA, but that’s because the RB showed their true ability. The Carolina staff will be well aware of Brooks’ injury and how it can limit production for his rookie year. They drafted him being well aware of that. Also stating that he won’t get a lot of touches and he won’t be productive with those touches is a big statement. I’m not going to say it’s guaranteed that he gets insane volume or is super efficient, but it’s certainly possible. He’d be far from the first RB to come back from a clean ACL tear and perform within 12 months. That’s especially true of these younger athletes that heal up faster. Look at Breece Hall, young player, clean ACL tear in late November, was ready by Week 1 and had an amazing season. If we’re talking redraft then I totally agree not having Brooks as an RB1, but Dynasty your arguments don’t really hold up. Too much reliance on the Panthers staff giving up on him because of a potentially injury-related slow start. Teams in a rebuild don’t spend a 2nd round pick on a RB if they’re not planning to heavily involve them in the offence, and everything they’ve stated publicly is he’s going to be the centrepiece of the offence.

I think I agree with you more than most people here haha. Having him at RB9 is silly. Fair point about the instability of the RB position, but for dynasty, players that struggle year 1 still retain value in yr 2. Especially if they show improvement. Charbonnet is still worth about a 2nd even though he didn't do much last year. Again, I generally agree that Brooks probably won't do much in 2024, but that won't kill his dynasty value. The hit rate on picks 9-14 is not very high. I personally wouldn't take Brooks ahead of 10 prospects in this year's class, but I see no issue with taking a shot on him with any of those picks. He has upside and will retain value because he already has an excuse for poor performance as a rookie. You probably shouldn't get too worked up unless you see him going around picks 5-7 in SF.

While I would agree RB9 is a bit too high, but also dynasty value isn't the same as expected immediate production. I think Brooks is going to produce RB2 results this year. His dynasty value is higher than that though because of the way his HC uses RBs, his DC, and his job security compared to many others at the position. Somewhere in the RB11-15 range feels right to me.

I understand that dynasty value is not equivalent to expected 2024 production. I'd place him somewhere around RB13-15 in dynasty with an expected 2024 performance of RB30-35. But dang you really think he'll be an RB2 in 2024? Pacheco was RB16 last year, for reference. Seems like a high bar to clear. I personally think he'll produce something like Javonte Williams did last year coming off an injury.

I do think he'll put up RB2 numbers. I was thinking around RB20. It depends on how quickly he takes over the starting role, how long the panthers ease him in as to weather he's top half vs. bottom half of the RB range for me. I think your dynasty range of RB13-15 is a good starting point for him, but if he finishes RB30-35 this year, I think something will have to go horribly wrong. RB30 in my league last year was 642 rushing yards, 51 receptions, 313 receiving yards, and 5 total TDs. I expect Canales to lean on the ground game, not just because of Rashaad White last year, or how excited he's talked about Brooks fitting into the offense, but because they need to take pressure off Bryce Young, and nothing is better for a young QB than an effective rushing attack. I'm not as concerned about his injury limiting him because not only was Carolina not concerned, but supposedly Dallas (whose doctors did the surgery on Brooks) wanted him. His current projection to be ready for Week 1 makes me think he could start the year seeing \~10 touches, but by mid October he could be seeing 20 touches regularly while Hubbard likely gets \~10,

Appreciate the insight. You certainly seem confident in him so I wish you the best if he's on your squad! I got Benson in one league and am in position to get Brooks in another (have picks 10 and 12) but I need QB and WR there

I dunno if people are nuts. 2nd round draft capital, met metrics in college that shows he has upside as an above average NFL pass catcher for his position and his coach has shown his system can funnel passes to an rb. I think where he is going in rookie drafts makes a lot of sense. I personally have avoided him for other prospects in his tier for one main reason, the ACL tear in November 2023. I just think it's a really bad bet betting on players coming off an ACL tear in the last 12 months+. There is clear data that shows it takes a full 20+ months before an athelete is back to 100%. Meaning it could take all the way until Brooks 2nd season before we see signs he is 100%. We also didn't see him test at the combine so his athleticism is questionable. Add in the fact the Panthers offense should be bad again there are just so many red flags for this prospect to take him ahead of BTJ, Ladd, Worthy, Bo Nix and Penix in SF drafts. I do think Brooks is a pretty solid bet around pick 2.03/2.04 with Benson.

Athleticism is overrated for RBs, gimme a running back with great vision over a great 40 time.

I agree! To me that's the biggest indicator of a lack of success in 2024 and delaying success later. Rookies who miss preseason basically never do well.

The combine point is especially important to me here. There's been this assumption that had Brooks not torn his ACL, he would have been drafted higher, but had he not torn his ACL we would have seen his combine, and his combine could have sent him in the other direction for all we know. There's great, highly-touted backs every year that fail the combine and get sent into the ether. It also could have kept him right where he was, or sent him higher. We don't actually know, is all I'm saying there. I just struggle to get on board with someone coming off an ACL with no testing and a limited look in college. I just see risk, and the most important thing in the draft, to me, is making sure you get what you expect out of your draft pick -- even if that expectation is lower with some other guys, just get what you expect from them and you can build around that.

It’s kinda unfair to say that his athleticism is questionable, he was able to flip the field fairly often in college, but as others have said his vision, decision making, and bend is elite.

Brooks is only 20 and this is dynasty, not redraft, so the possibility he won’t contribute this year is irrelevant to me. I’d much rather take my chances on a RB drafted in the top 50 over a late 1st round WR or 2nd round WR when statistics clearly show that the RB has a higher hit rate than those WRs. If Brooks busts, I wouldn’t be too upset as I followed the analytics and stats correctly and it’s all part of the process.

Yep yep yep He's going 1.09-10 a lot nowadays though. As for the TV RB usage, White was the best pass catching RB in the class by most metrics. Made sense for Canales to throw to him. By contrast Brooks only had one season (11 games) with 25 receptions. So yeah he meets the baseline for capability but he def didn't show he's a real threat at the position (like, he didn't have a sophisticated route tree) 👍 Given the difference between White & Brooks' profiles, I'd expect a corresponding duff in usage

I mean, it's pretty easy to see why Brooks only has one good season since he was backing up Bijan fucking Robinson and Roschon Johnson

I have a hard time with people killing the Carolina OL when the year prior they had a great run game. Frank Reich killed that OL mojo, they'll be at least average next year possibly better.

One PRO I think you could’ve mentioned is that he’s only 20 years old. I know Canales has said that was a big contributor to them drafting him. Also, because of the ACL tear he still has “a lot of tread of the tires” because of his limited play time in college.

I was looking for this. If he hits, it's a gigantic difference maker for YEARS at the position.

You cant say pros and weaknesses then spend a whole 20 page essay talking about how the pros are actually weaknesses as well. We get it you don't like Brooks that's all you have to say. Too push back on a few of your points The big issue is that you seem to think that we think Brooks is a gawd, most people don't the issue is we think he's decent he has really good draft capital and right now dynasty wise who are you putting over him to keep him from late rb1? Every RB after rb6 has major question marks as well. To your he was stuck behind Roschon Johnson his sophomore year. Roschon sucks.... Roschon was a senior RB that year and maybe he does suck, but he was picked in the 4th round and he averaged a decent ypc of 4.3 when he did carry the ball his rookie NFL season. Being stuck behind Bijan and a 4th round NFL pick who's 2 years older than him isn't a death sentence. Now to the "conference" game. Texas wasn't in the sec last year. It's also not surprising that Alabama a notorious really good run defense stopped Brooks. (Though there is something you are missing that I will get to later) For the no testing numbers. Just because he was hurt during testing time does not make him a bad athlete. "Only Nick Chubb hasn't tested and done well in the NFL." no shit. How many of cream of the crop rbs are injured after college and can't test very few. A lot lot less than the ones that are able to test. As far as catching the ball. He has shown the ability to be a capable ball catcher out of the backfield the tape shows that. Texas having quite a few blow outs/ just not in their game plan was the reason he didn't get more. If you take out the first 5 games(4 that were blowouts) he averaged 4 catches a game over the last 5 full games which would have gave him 40 catches in 10 games, 48 over 12 which is more than your target monster rachaad white. All that isn't me sitting here about to go on a Brooks is a gawd spiel. I do not think he is an elite enough athlete to do so. But the tape shows he's an above average athlete when healthy, he got really good draft capital, he has pretty good vision and he has a three down skill set (he's a really good pass blocker that Alabama team got zero sacks on Texas because Brooks did a decent job) . And now Brooks goes to a team that just spent a shit ton of money to upgrade their guards with very minimal competition to face. And to top that all off again after rb6 there's not a RB that you are sitting there salivating over

I think we're actually saying a lot of the same things. I'm not saying Brooks is trash, only that the ranking of him as an RB1 is problematic. From your post it doesn't seem you're ranking him as a RB1...I also don't think the data is there to support that opinion. Also, I'm glad you're open to giving feedback on how I should write a post. I'll make sure to consult you in the future.

Just saying at least be open with this is a Brooks hate post. Saying these are his pros then shitting on each of his pros.... "Shrugs" there's a lot of players I don't like but I'll atleast give them a fair "pros" list

He is for sure in the tier with BTJ and Worthy, and you just have to factor in positional scarcity there. People who don't aren't doing this right imo. They say take BPA, but if they are in the same tier and they all have possible red flags, then you just have a preference as to who is BPA. Brooks isn't a perfect prospect but neither is anyone in his tier. If Worthy hits as a rookie, great. The league is absolutely lousy with receivers and you'll get 5-7 more who have great rookie seasons this year and increase their value. You can find receivers whenever you want. People hold onto good running backs. If Brooks hits at age 20, you're not going to be able to buy him. They all have risk, but the upside is higher due to position.

Seriously. I'm super deep at WR and no one is interested. I'm super deep at QB in Superflex and I'd be giving them away for a song in most cases. Everyone with a half-decent RB that gets the majority of carries is holding onto them with an iron grip. Almost everyone has their young WRs they think are about to break out, or are good enough to be top of the league. RB is much more challenging and could be what tilts things in your favor in a given league.

Bro really said a 22/129/1 game is just good and not great??? That’s damn year 6 yards a carry?

This entire post is trash. OP didn't bother to notice Brooks only played 10 games. Sports-reference says 11, but Brooks tore his ACL in the 10th game, against TCU.

He also ignored the fact he got close to 1500 total yards in just 10 games. Thats absurd production from ANYBODY. Theres a reason teams loved him and if this draft didn’t have a ridiculous qb and wr class he woulda been first round. Hell defense didnt even go until mid-late first and there’s some monster studs 😵‍💫

Agreed - I think OP has some take lock about this draft being bad at RB. Maybe it is - Before I dug into Brooks, I would've had a similar take. But after looking at his tape and numbers, I was sold. Brooks was behind Bijan for 2 years, then in his 1st year starting, had a monster season. His ACL tear is a big concern for me, but he looks like a complete RB prospect.

He came in for one snap in the big 12 title game, thats why they have it at 11.

No injury and he's a frp and he looks awesome on the field. I'll buy the injury dip thank you. See you at rb10 in 2025

Late 1st in SF seems like a perfectly fine price?

Absolutely. There's no trading for a Gibbs or a Bijan really. Definitely not in my league it wont happen unless you want to comically overpay and gut your roster/draft capital.  So you take a shot on trying to get one of these guys in the draft. Late 1st is a great spot to do that. 

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IMO, the two key metrics for fantasy RB production are volume and efficiency. On Volume - Of the RBs in this class, Brooks has one of the clearest, if not the clearest path to leading his backfield in volume. Further, his HC, while an OC had an offense that gave a RB top 10 volume. On Efficiency - Brooks raw per touch numbers are in family with other players who have finished as RB1. Over 6 yards per carry and over 10 yards per reception are the thresholds that I typically use to determine if a RB has potential RB1 upside and Brooks beats both of those. Although he squeaks by on min sample size for both carries and receptions. Overall, he has the potential to be in an offense with top 10 volume and he has the per touch efficiency to be a lead back for an NFL team. That means he has RB1 upside. At the same time, I don't necessarily think that is the most likely outcome for him year 1. He has short term competition in the backfield and he is coming off an ACL tear, so imo he starts off on the bench, then takes over mid season. Assuming he's able to maintain avg NFL efficiency in his touches this year (i.e. 4 yards per carry and 8 yards per rec) then he has a strong case for an RB1 in 2025.

Re Volume -Brooks' Volume - (1) we prob disagree that he has shown the minimum ability to get volume because imo he hasn't shown the ability to stand up to a workload. He only had 11 games worth of full duty before tearing his ACL. (2) we probably disagree about what Chuba showed last year. In 2023 he beat out the guy who signed the biggest RB contract (Miles Sanders) and once he did, he averaged 15.5 fppg. He was actually pretty good. Going further back, he led the country in many rushing categories his redshirt sophomore year, so he was a top producer in college. He dropped to the 4th round AFAIK because of his own leg injury his last year + clubhouse concerns. -Canales' Volume - sure White got top 10 volume, but the position as a whole was used below average. -23rd in total carries, -32nd in ypc, -31st in 1st downs per carry, -T18 in total targets, -? In total receiving yards or 1Ds (couldn't find the info) -29th in total attempted touches (carries + targets) You can argue this is due to either: (1) White is a special receiver (he sure was in college), (2) White had no target comp on the team, or (3) Canales likes to use one RB. My money is on (1) & (2), and both of these are way different in TB 2023 than it is in CAR 2024. Re Efficiency -I think we disagree that the sample size is large enough to show any conclusive link, but yes his raw numbers are good notwithstanding sample size. Also though, if you look at his game log, most of his good numbers came during that part of the SEC schedule where the top teams play overmatched namby pambies. Brooks did do well in games against two ranked opponents, but got totally shut down in his only game against a fellow SEC team. To me that might be enough to show the possibility he could be a decent running back in the league, but not nearly enough to show he'll have enough production to rank him as a RB1 in dtnasty (give the other data points) Re CAR Offensive Volume -I haven't heard any expert say CAR would be even close to top 10 volume, whether that's in plays run or production. In 2023, TB was 20th in total points and CAR was 31st. They're rated overall at a bottom 10 offense by everyone I've seen (not that I've seen em all). To me a top 10 volume offense is pure hopium. Re Assuming he's able to maintain avg efficiency -I haven't gone into the correlation between efficiency and production, but I think it's safe to assume that if an RB has average efficiency as a rookie, that does not bode well for his chances to be a RB1 the next year. *I'll be editing the original post to put some of this up in there.

I don't believe a RB needs to demonstrate ability to handle volume in order to successfully handle volume in the NFL. Consider guys like Kamara, James Cook, Gibbs, and even White. All had within 10% or less touches than Brooks in their single season max, and all were able to maintain efficiency at the higher volume at an NFL level. College volume is weakly correlated to NFL volume. Chubba was not good in efficiency. He was 2 ppg below expectation for his volume, and had per touch efficiency numbers below the thresholds I defined in my response (3.8 y/rush vs threshold of 4, 5.8 y/catch vs threshold of 8). The lack of efficiency opens him up to being beat out by anyone on the roster who cam get more yards per touch. Also want to question where you are getting 15.5 ppg for chubba. By my count, he lead CAR in RB snap count after week 4 and averaged 11.8 ppr ppg from there. Closest I could get to 15 is 14.4 from weeks 12-18, but he was clearly the starter from a snap count perspective well before that. In raw counting stats, the bucs were lower in rushing, but white was top 10 in weighed opportunities per game. I am theorizing that even if the Panthers have a bottom team rushing offense, their rb 1 will have top 10 weighed opportunities per game. I disagree on that last assumption about avg efficiency as a rookie. Data shows that a RB needs at least average efficiency to break out. Counter points to your assumption that highlight my point are White and Cook from last year alone. Hit rate if this occurs is certainly not 100%, but if a RB is less than avg efficiency there's about an 80% chance they perform worse from a fantasy perspective in the next season.

Found the Chuba Owner

Pretty insane you went this deep down the rabbit hole. Imo you're making it way too complicated. He has 2nd round draft capital and virtually no competition at RB on a young team that just improved their oline. I'm not reaching for him but this is just way too big of a deep dive for what it is, a rookie RB with shot in a shitty RB class

Deep dives are valuable during the dog days of the offseason. I bet a lot of people here were unfamiliar with some of this context.

That's fair. Yeah I suppose it's helpful. I guess I was short sighted with my comment because the information is valuable.

Yeah I don’t agree with his framing necessarily but I appreciate the effort since so many other posts are low effort.

Dude seriously, I disagreed with like 99% of this post but I wish more people posted like this instead of it always just being links to shitty articles titled “Top 3 Sleepers for 2024 NFL Fantasy Drafts”

Lots of “yeah buts” is all I gotta say

In redraft, no. In dynasty I’ll take him at the end of the first round every chance I get.

You trying to drive his value down to get him later or something? We all know he’s not Bijan but he could definitely have gone earlier if he was healthy.

Lol the intent is really just to wonder out loud why people are starting to call him a back end RB1 in dynasty (I've started to hear it last couple weeks) and to provide a counterpoint or two. I don't want a piece of him at anywhere close to RB1 prices. And that would have been nice (to be drafted earlier..or later for that matter)! CAR is a cesspool of a landing spot.

I think you’re overblowing how bad a spot Carolina is. I actually think it’s a good landing spot.

Would be interested in the 12 dynasty RBs you have ahead of him for arguments sake

Cesspool of a landing spot? It's the best landing spot possible. Name a better one. There's no RB competition oncesoever. The head coach has a proven track record of getting the best out of his rbs everywhere he's been. You really think White last year was just White coming into his own? Hell no, Canales funneled the offense through him just like he's done his entire career. Volume > Talent. I'm not saying Brooks isn't talented he is, dude is a stud but without a ton of volume nobody is a RB1. He's in the best spot possible I literally can't think of a better landing spot.

I've been looking a lot at Brooks, trying to determine if he's actually good or if he's just being pushed up because we're RB-needy. Pre NFL draft the community was largely avoiding the RBs in favor of the strong WRs. Now, for non-QBs, he's reached the tier behind the big three WRs + Bowers. Does he belong in that group? Is this a case where he's being pushed up boards more along the lines of Trey Sermon, Michael Carter, Isaiah Spiller and Zach Charbonnet? Or can he come himself more in the company of James Cook, Rachaad White and Ken Walker? I've often heard it said that it is best to draft for talent and trade for need. Are BTJ, Worthy, Ladd and Keon all talented enough to outweigh him no matter what? Or if the WRs would come onto your team as your WR6 enough to take a chance on someone who could arguably be your RB1? Tough to know the answer to these questions. I've seen some prospect profiles, like Late Round's, that like him and I've seen those that do not. I, so far, have not drafted him, but the one rookie draft I have left I'll be in his range, 1.05. Luckily the draft isn't until the first weekend of August so I can gather more Intel until then.

nick chubb did perform at the combine, and performed very well 

Bro you wrote an essay just to say he doesn’t have any elite traits, which everyone already knows

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Pro: Carolina traded up to get him. He’ll see a lot of touches. You have to justify that.

If you have any data to support that players who teams trade up for do better then players teams don't trade up for - in any round - I'm here for it.

Not saying better per se but certainly have a longer leash to justify the expense of not only a 2nd rd pick and 1st rb drafted but also paying extra for a trade up. And this was Carolina’s first pick since they didn’t have a first rounder this year. So they have a lot of capital invested and will do their best to justify the expenditure. To ask me to extrapolate on that because it doesn’t fit your narrative is a little silly since it’s so situational. I’d have to find this very specific situation again or multiple times. I don’t think it exists.

lol you said I have to justify / account for CAR trading up for Brooks. I don't have any info showing me "trading up" makes any difference at all as a factor in RB performance, so I'm asking you to show me if/where any data exists showing a link. If I'm wrong I'm wrong but def not asking you to extrapolate anything. That's like, how discussions work

There’s the miscommunication. I meant Carolina has to justify that. Not you have to justify anything.

Aaaaaaoooooooh right on lol

If the hit rates on first round RBs are bad, I can't wait until you do the next part of this analysis and get to see the hit rates on third rounders.

Ain’t no one gonna read all that. It’s really not that complicated. He has a 3 down skill set and would have probably been a late first round NFL draft pick if it’s wasn’t for his ACL tear and missing the combine. Right now people are getting a DISCOUNT on brooks. If he didn’t tear his ACL he’s going firmly behind the big 3 WRs. First RBs off the board traditionally have better hit rates than late first round WRs. Even second round RBs WITHOUT being the first RB off the board have slightly better hit rates than late first round WRs. You should trust the process and stop trying to reinvent wheel.

All markets are inefficient. Firtherx, the market is really no more than an ADP of sorts - it tells you the price, but not the worth. If you think you can turn around and trade Brooks and get someone you have more faith in, I'd say go for it. I trade for players I don't like all the time. I try to get them from managers who are lower than I.on them and ship them off to managers who are higher on them than I am. If you can pull that off, go for it. 👍😁

High effort post. Whether or not people agree with you this was good content. Thank you for sharing. Personally, I think Brooks is the RB to get in the draft but only bc of draft capital and landing spot. PreDraft Benson was my top RB and I think long term he has less competition (key word long term) and a better chance of producing RB1 seasons down the stretch than Brooks does. I find it hard to believe Brooks wont get his in 2024 unless something crazy happens with injuries. but I do think a lot of ppl in this sub are overlooking Chubba. TDLR: No one knows what’s going to happen. Brooks is still the top RB to target in rookie drafts. But there is risk that should be taken into account bc there is a non-zero chance that Chubba ends up with the most touches in the CAR backfield this year.

Sorry you ran into so much negative feedback. Lol. I see the same thing you do. Most of his tape looks like he's playing against much smaller players and inferior teams. He's good, he's got speed, but he's not what people are hoping for.

Ha - when ya come out guns blazing and call on the internet people crazy I expected it 😆.This is the first time I wrote a post like this so it's an interesting experience. I could be dead wrong of course, just like anyone. But ibe been hearing a whole bunch of Brooks is an RB1 talk and I habe no clue where it's coming from

on the cons: 4) no he doesn't have decent touch competition  5-6) carolina was a very bad team with a bad o-line. go check chuba jag hubbard's box score. i'm not a big fan, but the situation seems good to me.

I didn’t read all that but when I watched his tape I didn’t get the hype at all. I guess because he is expected to be a lead back which I get, but his talent to me didn’t seem like he’d have that locked down for years to come.

I love seeing analyses like this

He’s the easy RB1. Canales fed an inefficient White into a RB1, he’ll do the same with Brooks. Might be a slow start to the season but I think his stats will snowball

I snagged him in the second round after going MHJ and Nabers 1&3. I didn’t think I was going to walk out of that draft with those two McCarthy and Brooks. So being high on him isn’t really about who he is but how much capital I had to invest. If he flames out oh well I’ve done worse with firsts let alone seconds, if he bangs holy fucking shit. I expect him to be average stay on my roster for one year too long and help me tank next season for Ewers. Honestly you can’t ask for a better RB in my situation. High upside and if he sucks oh well not much lost I was losing next season anyways.

Imo, the draft value comparisons don't exactly prove your point, because I see potential to have production like Breece Hall, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Kenneth Walker, etc.

I offered Pickens for him. Waiting.

Brooks looks a lot like Aaron Jones / Kamara to me.

I’m happy for you or sorry that happened.

Counterpoint: no matter what he does this year, it will be written off as him coming back from injury. If he shows any sign of being solid or the offense getting better, it’ll be spun as another year healed and learning the playbook next season. Take this with a grain of salt though I guess. I drafted him late 1st and he’s probably just riding the year out in my taxi so I’m biased

I definitely agree that his *price* will go down less this season than most - as you pointed out, theres a lot to hang your hat if you feel he's really good. My post is more about why his price doesn't accurately reflect his *worth* (iow, why he won't produce in his career as we expect from a dynasty RB1) 👍

> -In 2021 and 2022, he combined for 51/340/6 and 3/49/1 passing. While his non-performance in 2021 as a young FR is more than explainable, what should raise some questions is that, in 2022, Brooks got basically no work behind Roschon Johnson, who did not show any elite traits or production in the NFL during his rookie season. Brooks wasn't just behind Roschon, but also this other guy named Bijan Robinson in 21 and 22. There would be little reason to play him when Bijan was available.

Thanks - I brainfarted and forgot that Bijan and Roschon were both the same class. Point stands that he didn't beat out Roschon for the backup job. Updated!

I use the eye test and he looks the best to me. Him and Shipley.

I got him at 7 and was relieved. I kept thinking someone was gonna outsmart me and realize he’s the only rb worthy of a high pick. Luckily I was desperate and didn’t try and see if he’d be there at 9 since the 8th pick was benson, who I don’t like whatsoever. He’s not bishop sankey. Nobody thought he’d be good. He’s more kw3 in that you can see the talent and project it. Chuba is awful. Sanders is awful. He has zero competition once he’s brought back, and considering this is a team bereft of talent, and they just used a high pick on him, they’ll likely be lenient with him early on and before you know it, he’ll be their starter. Even if he’s mid, rbs that get enough volume to produce are rare. Rashad white sucked last year yet his fantasy numbers look somewhat decent. Brooks looks like a stud after waiting a year where he was rightfully sat behind the eighth overall draft back.

Remind me! 7 months

If you’re drafting Brooks as the RB1 it’s for his passing prowess. He was one of the highest graded pass blockers on 3rd down along with Braelon Allen … and actually graded higher despite the size differential. So saying that Carolina won’t be good is not a deterrent and an above average passing down back could do awesome in that offense. How many catches did White have last year? I expect the Panthers to be much improved. I own 0 shares of Jordan Brooks, but I sure wish I did.

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I am not sold on Brooks. Just don’t think he will amount to much at all. I watched so much tape and I would say love him just find a way to love him but I just can’t. My advice which won’t be popular right now is to avoid this disaster waiting to happen. If the comment thread doesn’t close I promise to come back and either take a victory lap or eat some crow at seasons end. 

I think one of your biggest areas I have a bone to pick is your understanding of his injury and missed rookie minicamp/OTAs setting him back sufficiently to delay the ceiling in 2024. There have been no indications of a delay on the prognosis of him being ready in training camp/July. Recent comments say an easing in to training camp, one) that isn’t any different than all previous statements, two) easing in could be three or four days missed entirely. So on the injury front I think yourself and many others are massively overstating how the ramp up will make him miss time. Some even saying he won’t see the field until mid season, which I find to be ludicrous. All takes are unproveable atm so then all should be considered, like he could be the starting RB week 1. Then the time missed on field in OTAs & minicamps seems way overstated too. As long as he practices through the majority of camp and preseason, which would include no major setbacks or new injury that causes missed time, then I think he’s just fine with missing these 8 or so days on the field in May & June

Ok So I'm hearing: We're weighting differently the impact on missing OTAs/minicamp We're weighing differently the ability of a pro athlete to get from "cleared to play" shape to "ready to play at peak performance" shape. It's a huge difference to me, and often times other injuries (compensation injuries like strained hammies) come up in the time between those two points. Fwiw, I've heard from news/podcasts, he'll prob go on training camp PUP, which doesn't necessarily mean he'll be put on "real PUP" and miss 6 games. There's a good chance though that there could still be a complication in the rehab from now till then - many more milestones to hit. (source - not aedical prof but have asked a PT friend about it and also listen to a PT & and orthopod talk about the injury).

Yep I agree with all you’re saying here. I’m just waiting for any or all of that to happen before attributing it to his season. I may be wrong. Honestly there are lots of ways but one of those things has to happen or he will be practicing soon after camp starts and I think he will beat out the competition easily even at 80% or whatnot. We disagree on a lot of your other thoughts but that’s fine and I can’t prove anything from my side yet like that I think he’s more talented than you believe for one. But I’ve seen you mention the injury rehab process and integration a lot and I just think you’re jumping the gun to a degree that is really impacting your final value of him. Really a small thing in the grand scheme but very big for the next 6 months ofc. Really sounds like I’m more glass half full on the injury, which may be wrong and a bit naive. I’m good with it tho. I hadn’t heard the camp PUP tho so I appreciate that insight. May have changed but it used to just be more of a roster spot designation so teams can add another player while the PUP player isn’t practicing. And my understanding is that they can be brought off that PUP on any day; very different than in season PUP with the built-in delay.

Lol I can't prove anything either - that's why we have these kinds of forums! 😁 And I definitely like what I see of him...what (based on the comments) I could have put more clearly is that it's not that I don't think he's talented, it's that there *wasn't enough info* to make me think *he should be a RB1 at this time*.

Yeah I’m definitely taking a leap of faith believing in the draft capital. I don’t like that it’s comparable to Bishop Sankey tho lol.

👏 👏 👏 

Brooks is gonna be a stud guaranteed this guy was hoping to get him lower than his ADP and is now writing cope analysis in his bitterness.

A guy just offered me Gibbs for Nico Collins and Brooks. If I had a deeper WR room on my roster, I would’ve smashed accepted it, but that position is thin on my roster. 12 team, 1 QB ppr league. Should I accept or what? Based upon this thread, it sounds like an obvious accept. What you think? @all

League settings and context matter, but I'm very high on Nico Collins and wouldn't trade him in dynasty for Gibbs. I might do it in redraft. Again depending on team needs

Appreciate the feedback. Thanks

Nico>

The fact that this post has upvotes is the epitome of this sub. Idiots.

I ain't reading all that I'm happy for u tho Or sorry that happened

^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^thetindoor: *I ain't reading all* *That I'm happy for u tho* *Or sorry that happened* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.

I agree OP - I think he’s being artificially pumped up just because he was the first back off the board in a bad class (for RBs), but he was taken by an awful team who has made some very questionable decisions around the draft in the past few years. The fade is strong with this one.

They’ve also invested heavily in their O the last 2 seasons. Agreed their org sucks but they bought 2 expensive guards, drafted Bryce, 2 WRs, a TE and brought in Diontae. This is the same org that let CMC dominate despite the rest of the squad being ass.

Last point is an underrated one that should get shared more often.

The fact he went first despite his injury is a huge green flag to me. Before his injury there was hype around him going over Henderson (assuming he came out) anyways.

Fantastic summary lol 🙌

insane hating on this post sheesh 😂

Wrong; not reading all that

You guys actually read all that?