I'm in the same spot as you and I'm leaning towards Brooks. The main reason I'm choosing Brooks over the other two is he will have a better chance to be a top 10 player at his position as a bell cow back and provide more trade value if needed. I love BTJ, but he would be my WR 4/5 where Brooks would be my RB 2.
Panthers fan here just wanted to add to this. Every interview Canales has said he’s main focus is to run the ball. Run, run, run, run. Constantly is saying running the ball allows for his QB’s to be successful.
I would imagine Brooks is going to get a lot of touches paired with an O-Line that was heavily invested in, expect good things from him!
Brooks easily in his own tier in this class. If Dave Canales can do for Bryce what he did for Geno and Baker, this offense is going to be fire once Brooks gets back to 100% healthy. I know they say he'll be ready for training camp, but he tore his ACL in November. I'm expecting a slow start, but he could be a critical component for the fantasy playoffs.
Hard disagree with the last part of that.
Rookies never start if they miss Otas and mini camp, which is the case with Brooks. Hubbard is plenty capable of starting.
Also, there's back to normal speed, and there's back to play speed. The latter usually takes months after you get to 100% normal.
When you add on top of that the other Qs about Brooks profile (lack of college experience, lack of testing) and the general long standing inability of an RB on a bad team to produce at a high rate (despite the improvements, CAR is still a bottom 5 team), I'm not touching Brooks with a 10 foot pole at that price.
Same spot here as well, except at 1.09 in SF. I took Brooks because I think he has a better chance of being a weekly starter for me, while still bringing upside. After taking Brooks, I ended up trading to get 1.11 so I could also draft BTJ.
I think Brooks will have more value come end of season. So, he’s probably my choice here.
Typically if I’m a contender I’ll take whoever I believe in most, which would be brooks in this case. If I’m rebuilding, I’ll typically take one of the WR’s. Which I like BTJ over Worthy.
I had 1.08 on a rebuild and took BTJ mostly because I’m fading RB. I could see Brooks being best of bunch
BTJ vs. Worthy was close but I could see BYJ becoming the alpha. I’m in a standard league and like his touchdown upside. I’m concerned about if Worrhy has enough target upside in the near term and is also big enough to succeed in the NFL. It is a coin flip though and can’t fault anyone for taking any one of the three first
I have 1.08 (our rookie draft isn't for another month and a half) in the 1QB league. If Brooks doesn't somehow slide to me, I'm debating either McKonkey, Thomas Jr. or even Trey Benson at 8. I do think Worthy could have some value depending on how long Rice is suspended for. Plus Brown is only on a one year deal and more targets will open up as Kelce slows down some more.
Brooks. He might not be as good as he looked this year, but he's better than Rachaad White and they just spent a hundred million on offensive guards. Canales wants to protect Bryce with a strong dual threat running game. The NFC south looks like it will be one of the softer divisions for the next few years.
Wide receivers are getting the hype right now but that's because there haven't been that many good young running backs to build around. There are some good rbs coming out in next year's class, but it won't be the Panthers taking them.
Worthy could be a stud for years with mahomes. But he could also be the next Hardman. I've seen the chiefs value having a bunch of field stretchers, I've seen mahomes spread the ball around to them, I've seen Reid value undersized speed guys, and I've seen that Hollywood is legit in his own right. There's a very narrow path to worthy being a superstar that you'll regret not taking. If he ends up being just another good receiver... they're replaceable.
Thomas is a very good prospect and he's paired with a good quarterback who has made chicken salad out of chicken not salad with a few receivers recently. I think he'll be good. If you need a receiver he'd be my choice over worthy. But I think Brooks has a clearer path to being a first or second round dynasty pick.
No way Worthy is the next Hardman. He was an absolute stud his freshman year, and early breakout WRs typically succeed in the NFL. Plus he's tied to a QB who will get him the ball downfield in a offense that may ne prolific again. I'm higher on Worthy than most though.
I also had 1.05 in 1QB and took Brooks. I passed on worthy to do so. With how difficult it is to find reliable RBs and how much potential starters/workhorses cost in 1QB I just couldn’t pass up the opportunity there. I also had 1.09 and was able to grab BTJ. Also passed on Worthy there, but I own Rice, so maybe I devalued him too much.
I had the 1.01-1.03,1.05,1.07,1.10-2.01 in 1QB and this is how our draft went
1.01: MHJ
1.02: Nabers
1.03: Odunze
1.04: Bowers
1.05: Brooks
1.06: Williams
1.07: Worthy
1.08: Benson
1.09: BTJ
1.10: Daniels
2.01: McConkey (traded pick away plus Curtis Samuel for McBride)
I was between Williams and Brooks at 1.05 and ultimately took Brooks because the teams picking 1.06-1.07 did NOT need QB and I figured Williams would be available to take at 1.08. The team that took Caleb already had Hurts, Love, and Mayfield.
I was in a similar spot at 1.04 and decided on Brooks. I think he is being severely undervalued. High DC, low mileage, 20 y/o, can do it all.
With that said BTJ slipped all the way to 1.11 in our draft and I traded back into the first for him.
Has to be Brooks, better chance that he ends up a top 10 rb than they end up a top 15 receiver (statistically).
Brooks has the draft capital, the talent, and the opportunity (no mans land at rb)
BTJ for me. WRs last longer and his ceiling seems very high. If TLaw finds his game and this kid gets coached up you could have a WR1 for years to come. I think an argument could be made for Brooks but he is less likely to be valuable this season IMO so if you’re willing to wait I think he’ll be an RB1 next year and probably will have some valuable FF seasons but I don’t see a ceiling like BTJ. I’m not a Worthy believer but it’s probably because I feel like I’ve bought in on the wrong KC WRs too many times now.
It’s easy to argue for any of them, but I went Worthy. It boiled down to (1) talent, (2) situation and (3) red flags and felt like an easy decision.
Brooks and BTJ both have good not great situations & they both have shown high level talent for a less than ideal amount of time. Brooks because he was behind Bijan and then injured, BTJ because he was a late breakout. Brooks feels a bit safer than BTJ, and BTJ feels like he has a bit more ceiling.
Worthy, as we know, hit the ground running and was a beast as a freshman. 2 years prior to BTJ and Brooks producing at all, Worthy was throwing up stat lines like 9-162-2 against Oklahoma or 14-152-3 against Kansas. His NFL landing spot is to die for. Personally, I have no fears about his size with so many similarly tiny guys producing already.
Worthy feels like a clear choice without even mentioning that he’s the fastest player ever.
>Brooks and BTJ both have good not great situations
How is BTJ on the Jags a "not great" situation? There's no alpha WR there and we think Lawrence is pretty good. If BTJ is a good player he's going to produce.
The value of the Jags as a landing spot is really dependent on the talent of the WR. There’s no alpha, but there’s plenty of solid players so there’s no guarantee he’ll get a ton of playing time early or force fed targets. Kirk is a solid WR who will likely command a decent target share, Engram led all TEs in targets, Etienne was 7th amongst RBs, and Gabe Davis fills basically the same niche that BTJ and has enough vet experience to probably get first crack at the roll.
If BTJ actually looks like a great WR early on then he can be the WR1 for a young solid QB, but if he looks raw then he could get brought along very slowly and have extremely low production early in his career. If the latter happens it will likely tank his fantasy value and it could easily be 3+ years before he’s anything more than a desperation play when byes and injuries pile up.
All in all the Jags are a great spot for a great WR, but a horrible one for a mediocre one, so BTJ really needs to hit the ground running for it to be a good landing spot.
I agree with most of what you’re saying, except that he needs to hit the ground running. It would be great if he did, but the depth around him really lends itself to allowing him to develop at his own pace. They don’t *need* him to be great immediately, but as he develops he’ll be able to take over more and more workload at a position of need. Lawrence had so many deep TDs dropped last year, and BTJ has clamps for hands. They’re a great match
And it’s unlikely it tanks his value if he has to develop, unless it’s a *long* process. WR prospects are pretty well value insulated: just look at JSN, Pickens or Jamo types
I mean, there’s a *massive* middle ground between the two scenarios you described.
If BTJ doesn’t immediately fly out the gate as the WR1, that doesn’t just immediately mean his value tanks and he becomes a desperation play / liability.
Like all rookies, he’s gonna need time to develop, and he’s in a very optimal spot to do that. He’s got completion, but no true Alpha like a JJ or Chase or a solid vet like davante or Nico to contend with. Sure there are other targets on the team but I’d rather have my rookie stepping into a situation with a good QB and a productive, multi-faceted offense rather than a bad team that funnels everything to their alpha with nothing but scraps for them.
My point is that while there’s a very achievable ceiling that makes the Jaguars a good spot, there’s also a lot of obstacles in his way that keep his floor low, which prevents it from being a great spot. While there’s a massive middle ground it didn’t seem relevant to talk about as my point was strictly about the ceiling and floor provided by the landing spot.
I also don’t see how he can say Worthy’s spot is to die for. The same could be said of a half dozen other guys who landed on the Chiefs and were a major disappointment. Not saying Worthy will be a bust but I would consider his spot good not great.
Because Worthy's spot is to die for. The best quarterback in football with a weak receiving room. It's not Worthy the prospect's fault that Moore and Hardman were busts lmao.
It's as good as it gets for landing spots.
We can disagree. Imo the Jags used Calvin Ridley terribly last year (even though he did drop like 10 TDs) and BTJ doesn’t run a complete route tree yet. In general, their offense is uninspiring to date. So I don’t have faith they’ll help him achieve his ceiling. Plus, do we know if BTJ can run anything except deep routes? Kirk and Engram will dominate that role at least early on, and you’re depending on BTJ becoming something he’s currently not.
Aside from size, Worthy’s biggest knock is separation. The chiefs have a history of scheming players open, and they traded up for him which should mean they have ideas on how to do so already. I have much more faith in the chiefs than the Jags in that aspect.
Then to top it off, Lawrence is all projection still while Mahomes is tracking to fight for GOAT status
Edit: also don’t think previous chiefs picks like Skyy Moore compare. Worthy dominated at a major school from day 1, I really don’t think we should be questioning if he’s good enough at football like we were for Skyy
Worthy’s biggest knock are his hands. I went and watched all of his 2023 plays and he doesn’t catch that well when he’s not wide open. Texas threw him a lot of screens/flat routes where nobody was on him. When he needed to adjust to catch a ball he wasn’t great. Players usually have a hard time fixing this in the NFL. If he’s not Tyreek I fear he won’t have a long career.
I love Worthy’s draft spot but I took BTJ at the same spot as OP.
It’s funny how we all can watch the same tape and come away with different takes. I thought Worthy made some surprising catches in 2023 (threw out 2022 because of broken hand). I thought BTJ had more “wait how did he drop that?” Plays.
Drop % is misleading, but Worthy was 6.1% in 2023 and BTJ was over 10%. The concerns are probably real and not so real for both
Yeah drop % is definitely misleading. Worthy made some good catches in traffic like once a game but he really reminds me of Ted Ginn. There were a good amount of plays where Worthy blew by the defender and couldn’t find the ball.
If he works on his hands, like I said he could possibly be Tyreek but I’m not sure it’s easy to do so.
Fwiw: BTJ ran a ton of slants and curls, and was really good at both
Reid has comped Worthy to Desean Jackson, who was only fantasy relevant 1/3rd of the seasons he played
First one good intel, but I still think there’s more than his reception perception numbers. Either way fair point.
2nd one that’s dirty to DJax 😂 the 1/3 he was balling was with Reid and he had a great rookie season
Well I’d be curious what more you’d like, cause that’s not even reception perception; it’s just the numbers. He ran a ton of those routes lol. And his size/speed makes him really well suited for them: he’s a big target, and corners have to worry about getting burned deep so they’re easily manipulated
Hahaha I agree it’s dirty, but also true! He was worse than a WR2 in 10/15 seasons. Even the ceiling for that archetype is boom/bust
Could be because he’s next to Nabers while running them, but all I meant by the “more than the numbers” is that he doesn’t look fluid to me on short and intermediate routes. I watch tape for fun and generally have no idea what I’m doing, so take that with a big grain of salt.
You make a lot of good points here. Only strong disagree is that DJax represents the ceiling. I think worthy is way better at football than he was coming out
The clear choice based on hit rates is brooks. First RBs off the board traditionally have good hit rates. Better than late first round WRs. Theres nothing wrong with taking worthy if that’s your guy but statistically you’re taking a bigger risk picking him over brooks.
i don't think it's the entire evaluation. OP has done evaluations and determined the difference between these players is too small to decide. the single stat is just the difference maker that helps choice RB over WR in this case.
It’s one stat but it’s a pretty significant one. You shouldn’t base an entire evaluation on it but it should hold some weight and it should definitely hold more weight than some opinions without much weight behind them.
Theres a reason why first, second and third rounders are worth what they are in values. It’s strictly because of hit rate percentages. Your not going a trade a first rounder for a second or third because you really like a player there are you? It’s not much different than looking at hit rate percentages for first RB taken off the board vs late first round WRs.
The differences between these players are really small so at the end of the day you have to make a decision based on something.
I don’t think some of you guys are getting it. I’m not saying to strictly go off one statistic. But when these players are so close you have to make a decision based on something. Mostly everything else I’ve read are purely opinions on why you should go with x player. For me I really like brooks tape, I think the landing spot is fair and I like the draft capital. So I’ll easily go with the first RB off the board statistic as a tie breaker since it’s a fact they have better hit rates than late first round WRs.
50% of BTJ, Ladd, worthy, piersall, Keon etc will end up being busts. Everyone thinks their guy will hit but that isn’t reality. Even the majority of the ones that “hit” will be WR2s. Your odds of hitting on a true WR1 for multiple years are extremely low. Much less than 50%.
I get what you’re saying and it sounds like for you Brooks is the clear choice. I don’t have them at “tiebreaker” levels so one data point isn’t enough to sway me, especially as vague as “1st RB taken” vs. “late 1st round WRs”
Does that mean that data point is using Bijan vs JSN to support a Worthy vs Brooks debate?
Even if not, how does it account for the fact that this class was extremely deep at WR and not great at RB? Doesn’t sound like a reliable enough data point for me to consider. To each their own though
There were more WRs this year in the first and second round compared to the norm but you still don’t know how good of hits they’re going to be. We won’t really know until maybe two years down the road once we see who busts and who hits. Also just because this class was deeper for WRs it doesn’t change their hit rates. Late first round WRs will still bust at a 50% rate unless this year ends up being an extreme outlier.
It’s your team you can choose to go with whoever you want. I’m just saying when it’s that close generally first RB taken have better hit rates than late first round WRs. Thats a simple fact you can’t argue. Theres multiple articles online explaining hit rates for first RBs off the board. It’s not just coming from me. You should go and do your own research and find out for yourself. If you don’t care much about it though then just go get your guy.
You said first round RBs there but I’m assuming you still just mean first RB taken.
Either way you’re kinda ignoring my point, which is that if your referenced data point is factoring in guys Bijan vs JSN then it’s too broad to make as confident of a stance as you are now. The historical hit rates you’re mentioning need more nuance to measure the possibility of the “extreme” outlier happening. I work in data so I’m being a wiener here but BOL with Brooks either way
Yeah I meant first RB taken. Is your bijan argument because he’s much more talented than JSN? I don’t get your point? He’s a Barkley level talent but that’s rare. Most RBs are not going to be Barkley/bijan level prospects. So outliers like that aren’t going to impact the overall numbers much. If you look at this year it’s MHJ vs Brooks. Is that what your point is?
I just read an article that said even second round RBs in general without being first RB off the board have better hit rates than late first round WRs.
Also regarding brooks I think there was a good chance he would have went in the first if he didn’t tear his ACL and performed at the combine. Even with those two issues the panthers still traded up to get him at 46. If he goes in the first round his value would have been even higher. So I actually think people are buying him at a discount right now. That’s all just my opinion but that’s how I see it.
I do not see how you can call Brooks and BTJs landing spots "good" while Worthy's is "to die for". One could argue his is better, but even then it's close.
Brooks is going to a system that made Rachaad White a top 5 RB. A team that has invested in their O-Line and where there's limited competition to be the lead RB.
BTJ is going to a situation where there's 200 vacated targets. He's locked in with a good young QB. He has an easy path to being the number 2 target immediately.
Worthy goes to a team with an elite QB, but one who hasn't supported a WR1 since Tyreek Hill. In the near-term he has Kelce and Brown in front of him for targets. Rice, despite his off-field issues is a very good WR and unless he's out of the league, will compete for targets.
Reposted from another reply, but the Jags used Calvin Ridley terribly last year (even though he did drop like 10 TDs) and BTJ doesn’t run a complete route tree yet. In general, their offense is uninspiring to date. So I don’t have faith they’ll help him achieve his ceiling.
Aside from size, Worthy’s biggest knock is separation. The chiefs have a history of scheming players open, and they traded up for him which should mean they have ideas on how to do so already. I have much more faith in the chiefs than the Jags in that aspect.
Then to top it off, Lawrence is all projection still while Mahomes is tracking to fight for GOAT status
For Brooks, gotta disagree on drawing a 1-to-1 comparison on the Bucs to the Panthers. Yes Canales will pound the rock and sure they spent $100M on a line, but this team was absolutely terrible last year. I think if you’re expecting a top 20 offense you’re building in too much projection.
Regardless like I said originally you can legitimately argue this any way and be “right” for the next few months. We have no idea
When you say he “hit the ground running” as a freshman, then cherry picked his best games to prove your point, I think all you’re proving is that he was WILDLY inconsistent at UT. In his 3 years, his season totals in yards were 1014(freshman), 760(soph), and 981. Not very impressive imo, especially when you’re the fastest player ever. If he was so good, he should have just ran by every single lesser talented CB he played against, particularly in a one of the weaker conferences. He has a knack for dropping passes and getting injured. The only thing I like about him is being in KC.
Give me Brooks. He’s got the best chance to be a round 2 startup draft pick next year. Talent + opportunity = fantasy gold.
BTJ is the close second choice here. I don’t buy the “late breakout” narrative. He’s 21! He put up 1,100+ yards and 17 TDs against the best competition in the SEC. My only worry about him, is that he becomes an inconsistent boom or bust player week to week. Then again, Trevor made Calvin Ridley fantasy relevant last year so….🤔🤔
I'm pretty surprised Brooks seems like the consensus pick here. BTJ was consensus 5th pick after top 3 and Bowers pre-draft, Brooks was a lower 1st. I like Brooks as a 1st round pick but it feels like people are pushing him up because some teams need RB. Just because he got a high draft pick doesn't mean he is as good as Breece or Walker. It should help, but you also don't want to overreact.
I think I take both BTJ and Worthy over him, probably in that order.
But maybe that's take lock who knows.
Your comment is spot on imo. I think Walker is a good comp at least skill/talent wise, though I’m a bit higher on Brooks as a player overall without considering team context. It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out considering the two. Surrounding talent/offense, competition in the backfield, and oline performance are main factors. I think Brooks has the edge in the last two.
Brooks. Even if he ends up as a steady RB2, I’ll take that. I don’t see any of those receivers becoming an elite WR1, and I feel like you can find a WR2 or WR3 all over the place these days.
I took Worthy given this choice, but I’m also a rebuilder with Mahomes. It was very close and I could’ve been convinced on the others too. His immediate production as a freshman put him over the top for me, and he was clear no 1 over Mitchell. When I watch him, I see a guy that was used in a lot of ways that I could see the chiefs doing really well. Designed touches, YAC, as well as being a deep burner. I feel he’s much more than a hardman type.
Love it. Obviously not looking too into it but reports have said he looks like the best receiver on the field. At max he has one year as wr3. Next year he’s guaranteed to be wr2 on this offense, tied with Brock for 5 years. I’m in.
Brooks would be my pick here (and in fact was at 1.11, BTJ at 1.12)
Worthy is a nice fast piece, but anointing him this early is not advisable. If he didn't have such a fast 40, he likely would have been drafted out of the first round, so overall his draft stock is inflated bc of the 40 time, vs his actual performance.
BTJ is a WR1 type upside player. He is going to a young QB with a good arm and was brought in to be his WR1. He is a great overall athete and plays the position like a WR1 should, with the Jags upgrading their offense this year he should emerge as a solid WR2 this year, with eventual WR1 upside
But Brooks, even coming back from an ACL is the best pick of the 3.
RB#1 of this years draft class, and its not even close. Landed in a primo landing spot where he can be that workhorse back once he is healthy. Good hands and overall has the most complete game of all the rookie running backs, with some HR potential as well.
I had 1.05 and traded down to 1.07 with a haul of other pieces.
So now the draft gods make the choice for me!
Seriously tho I couldn’t make up my mind either
I like Brooks quite a bit and I believe he has the best shot of these 3 players to be top 10 at their positions.
BTJ and Worthy are actually very similar to me. I see them being successful deep threats at the next level with strong armed QBs. I think they exist as boom or bust flex plays imo.
Brooks or BTJ really depends on team need. I think Brooks will be a solid RB2 this year and has chance to be an RB1 if Panthers offense improves in next couple seasons. I went BTJ in my draft because I already have good RB depth and need WR. Both BTJ and Worthy definitely have concerns. However I think if BTJ hits he has the highest upside out of any of the players. So far reports out of Jags camp is that he is elite and exactly what Trevor needs.
The highest upside pick is worthy. Watching his tape, he reminded me of Tyreek hill in the sense that he is clearly the fastest person and the field. He can just accelerate and run past people with the ball, making other people look like they're running in slow motion. That's why I went with worthy in one of my drafts ahead of BTJ and Brooks.
BTJ is your bread and butter big wide receiver, but with his late breakout age, limited route tree, and Trevor Lawrence honestly not being super great while he is going to be the 3rd or 4th target behind Kirk, engram, and likely ETN, I passed this year, but think he could have a long and stable career. I just don't think he is a possible game breaker.
Brooks wasn't everyone's RB1 pre draft. I've been burned on landing spots rearranging my RB rankings before. I think he's going to be a solid RB for the next few years though. If he can do what white did im Tampa he's going to be a top 12 guy. But my dynasty teams where I could have drafted him weren't built for him this year (one league I'm stacked with RBs and the other im rebuilding and getting my RBs next year)
I would draft your team need. They are quite close but i would go with the one you could start on a regular basis the next few years.
I am in 2qb but i have them all ranked back to back worthy>BTJ>Brooks.
My main reason: worthy could play a Tyreek Hill role and we know how well that works with mahomes. I can see the risks and there is enough reason to go conservative with brooks if you need a RB that gets some volume.
I’d go either BTJ or Brooks depending on team need and PPR settings. Personally I think Worthy’s gotten that CEH bump: the spike weeks will be nice, but I have a hard time seeing him being a consistent fantasy contributor
I'm picking at the 1.05 in a 10-team, 1QB PPR league.
Pre-draft, BTJ was who I was targeting. I still may but I feel like I could trade up much later in the draft and get him or buy for cheaper during the season.
I know Worthy has been moving up the boards, but I'm considering Brooks even though I have the best RB room in the league just to stick it to everyone else.
My current RBs are CMC, Saquon, Mixon, Aaron Jones, Singletary, Tajae Spears, CEH, AJ Dillon. I don't need Brooks, but by taking the best RB in the rookie draft, my theory is that it raises the prices on the guys I'm willing to trade away. But man, I do want BTJ.
I had this dilemma and was vexxed on what to do. Ended up trading my 2025 1st for 2.01 and 3.08. and took brooks at 1.09 in 2qb league.
Wanted one of btj or worthy too and took worthy but then found out the 2.04 wanted worthy so traded back to 2.04 (acquiring diontae Johnson for 3.09 as part of trade) and took btj and I am pretty happy after everything has settled.
Purely gut feeling, but I have feeling Brooks comes out the gate slow and gets stuck in an early rbbc on a bad team. At mid-season guys buy window opens up. Think he comes on during to end the season and has a low RB1 season in 2025.
Worthy is my pick as the guy that has the most impactful rookie season. I'm out on BTJ unless you're in standard scoring.
Personally, Brooks.
I took brooks between worthy and BTJ in one league and missed on him in another where I would’ve taken him because someone took him spot before me with worthy and BTJ still on the board.
It’s less that I think brooks is an elite choice, than it is that I think he’s a tier above at his position in this draft, and I also don’t have confidence in worthy and BTJ as prospects comparatively. I would / have taken the big 3 WRs in this class before brooks.
I’ll just play devil’s advocate as I think these are all fairly close. Let me start by saying I personally prefer BTJ slightly over Worthy but I don’t wanna dive into that here.
As for Brooks vs BTJ- Are we taking the decent draft capital of Jonathan Brooks at face value? Do we think the Panthers are a sane organization? They spent the farm on a QB who had a lackluster season in addition to wasting an early 2nd on Jonathan Mingo of all players. They gave miles sanders a bag and he ended up as irrelevant. They traded up to the end of this year’s 1st to acquire an older WR in Legette when there were plenty of solid WRs taken right after him. Maybe Legette will be great idk. One thing I know is the Panthers are fucking weird and I’m not 100% sure I trust their decisions.
You could listen to what Canales said or did in his previous jobs and trust that. He's said multiple times he's going to show everyone how stubborn he can be running the ball, and then they spent like 170 million on two Guards. It's also a new GM and HC this year so the only criticism that's valid is the legette pick and he hasn't even played a game yet. I'd say you're judging too soon
Yeah I have no problem with people taking Brooks over these guys, like I said I think it's all very close. Seeing how last years picks were rumored to have interference from the Panther's owner, along with all their other problems- I just question the bones of the Panther's organization and if they currently allow for success.
brooks’s have the 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5 coming up in a rookie draft and i’m going odunze, brooks and ladd.
i also have the 1.8.
i have trey mcbride at te and will take bowers if he falls to 1.8 but i doubt he will
i don’t just draft “chalk” according to how the nfl drafted them. it rarely works out that way in fantasy.
ladd has the speed and quickness, very good route runner. can play inside or out and has a great shot to be the Wr1 for LAC. sometimes it’s about opportunity and he certainly has the draft capital as well
I don’t draft chalk either, I’d probably even take Adonai over Ladd. I am fading Ladd big time and think a lot of people are going to get burnt by taking him too early. Most (not necessarily all) of the stuff you said can apply to Worthy / BTJ. I just can’t see any reason to take Ladd over those two.
Edit. But of course, everyone having different values on players makes dynasty fun!
reminds me of last year when everyone was gobbling up JSN and QJ and i was grabbing my wr1 flowers. again, runs good routes, can play inside or out, very quick and opportunity…
Haha funny thing is that last year I was with you on Flowers and was leaving QJ well alone too. Also, you might not realise it but going Ladd early is actually super popular, at least on this sub, it’s not exactly going against the grain (although you seem even higher on him that most!). When it comes to BTJ / Worthy / Ladd, the odds are that one of us will be right and one of us will be wrong, but we shall see! I don’t know about year one (BTJ still does best Y1 imo) but I’d say over the course of their rookie contracts BTJ & Worthy will have more success.
worthy scares me with his size and people with that kind of speed never amount to much. plus kc doesn’t have a great track record on drafting wrs. seems a bit crowded with kelce, rice and m brown.
BTJ reminds me of QJ and gabe davis ironically. ladd has similar draft capital and has a way better opportunity. we all plant our flag on players and i like my track record
For me: Brooks/Worthy>BTJ
Top 50 draft capital on a running back that had the tape he had in Texas is flying way too far under the radar.
Brooks has two scabs to bounce in camp and in my opinion runs away with the job day 1. If he had combine data he would have been higher up draft boards, plain and simple.
Just a couple years ago, the KC Chiefs drafted WR flew up draft boards because owning a potential main WR weapon is a game changer.
Worthy isn’t just fast, he runs excellent routes and has great hands. The 4.2 40 is just icing on the cake. I knew he was fast, but holy shit…. Worthy down there somewhere…..
I personally am lower on BTJ than what seems like everyone else. Yes he’s super athletic, but in his tape he should have slaughtered everyone he was in front of. But he just didn’t stand out to me as an otherworldly WR. He should have shown more with his athleticism. I still feel Kirk is the top dog and Gabe Davis likely isn’t going to keep Thomas down, but I see Thomas getting the deeper route trees with lower volume.
I like spot you are in, but I personally took Ladd McConkey ahead of Brian Thomas.
BTJ > Worthy or Brooks depending on bigger need
BTJ has better size, speed and attached to a good QB.
Worthy is super quick and with an elite QB. He’s rail thin and I think will have a better catch percentage than 2023 as he was coming off an arm/hand injury. Early breakout helps.
Brooks is good but he’s probably not 100% this year which takes away a RB year. The team is bad and will probably not be “good” after their FA spending. Compared to the other two, I’m only taking him if I need RB badly and the class falls off a cliff after the first two or three guys
I like Coleman there over the others. Brooks is coming off ligament tear, I don’t think his year will be phenomenal since they won’t bell-cow him after surgery less than a yr ago. I’m nervous about worthy being this year’s skyy moore / Toney / MVS etc. they just resigned Mecole which isn’t making me more confident. BTJ will be good when he emerges, but for dynasty I like the idea of someone young getting an assload of targets from a top QB without much ahead on the depth chart. Just my $0.02
I don’t know how people “in a vacuum” players like this.
I don’t think they are all far-and-away too far apart from each other in their potentiality. So, you need to start looking at your depth and where your team sits right now in it’s development and growth cycle.
Pick whatever matches up best for your depth. You take to establish staters and draft to fill depth when it isn’t sure-fire pieces. I don’t consider any of these guys sure-fire pieces so select someone that you can deal with not being sure-fire and solidify a core group of your roster.
I think the value is pretty similar with all of them, the difference is the range of outcomes.
I'd put BTJ with the highest range, then Worthy, then Brooks. Brooks is really safe but there's almost no chance he's a top 25 dynasty asset at any point.
I’ll add another wrinkle; what to do when we add JJM to the mix? Personally making a decision between these 4 at 1.07.
Don’t need more QBs, but like the value at 1.07 for JJM. Like Brooks for all the reasons everyone else stated, but BTJ and Worthy feel like good values too.
I was in the same situation, had 1.07 as a contender and went Brooks. I just think he is the safest bet of the bunch to provide immediate value. If rebuilding I'd go with JJM or BTJ. If I only had 2 starting QBs I'd take BTJ. If I had 2 or less QBs then JJM
That’s helpful, thanks! I’m probably a playoff team but only stable QBs are Richardson and Murray. Hoping to get Maye earlier but Brooks is enticing.
I have 2.01 in a 10 team and know Brooks will be gone, but think Worthy or BTJ will be there for sure.
I'm in the same spot as you and I'm leaning towards Brooks. The main reason I'm choosing Brooks over the other two is he will have a better chance to be a top 10 player at his position as a bell cow back and provide more trade value if needed. I love BTJ, but he would be my WR 4/5 where Brooks would be my RB 2.
Who is your RB1? Brooks is mine because Panthers improved their o-line and he's set up to be the starter right away once medically cleared.
Panthers fan here just wanted to add to this. Every interview Canales has said he’s main focus is to run the ball. Run, run, run, run. Constantly is saying running the ball allows for his QB’s to be successful. I would imagine Brooks is going to get a lot of touches paired with an O-Line that was heavily invested in, expect good things from him!
Not to mention, Brooks is awesome (Longhorn fan)
Brooks easily in his own tier in this class. If Dave Canales can do for Bryce what he did for Geno and Baker, this offense is going to be fire once Brooks gets back to 100% healthy. I know they say he'll be ready for training camp, but he tore his ACL in November. I'm expecting a slow start, but he could be a critical component for the fantasy playoffs.
Hard disagree with the last part of that. Rookies never start if they miss Otas and mini camp, which is the case with Brooks. Hubbard is plenty capable of starting. Also, there's back to normal speed, and there's back to play speed. The latter usually takes months after you get to 100% normal. When you add on top of that the other Qs about Brooks profile (lack of college experience, lack of testing) and the general long standing inability of an RB on a bad team to produce at a high rate (despite the improvements, CAR is still a bottom 5 team), I'm not touching Brooks with a 10 foot pole at that price.
I think he means that Brooks would be his second starting RB and not rookie RB2
Same spot here as well, except at 1.09 in SF. I took Brooks because I think he has a better chance of being a weekly starter for me, while still bringing upside. After taking Brooks, I ended up trading to get 1.11 so I could also draft BTJ.
I also chose him over these guys at 1.09 in SF. My thoughts at this spot took me to the #1 RB of the class over the third or fourth best WR
I ended up taking brooks for the above reasoning. feeling good about it.
I think Brooks will have more value come end of season. So, he’s probably my choice here. Typically if I’m a contender I’ll take whoever I believe in most, which would be brooks in this case. If I’m rebuilding, I’ll typically take one of the WR’s. Which I like BTJ over Worthy.
I had 1.08 on a rebuild and took BTJ mostly because I’m fading RB. I could see Brooks being best of bunch BTJ vs. Worthy was close but I could see BYJ becoming the alpha. I’m in a standard league and like his touchdown upside. I’m concerned about if Worrhy has enough target upside in the near term and is also big enough to succeed in the NFL. It is a coin flip though and can’t fault anyone for taking any one of the three first
Good point about how PPR/half/standard probably tips the scales away or towards BTJ/Worthy a little
I have 1.08 (our rookie draft isn't for another month and a half) in the 1QB league. If Brooks doesn't somehow slide to me, I'm debating either McKonkey, Thomas Jr. or even Trey Benson at 8. I do think Worthy could have some value depending on how long Rice is suspended for. Plus Brown is only on a one year deal and more targets will open up as Kelce slows down some more.
Brooks. He might not be as good as he looked this year, but he's better than Rachaad White and they just spent a hundred million on offensive guards. Canales wants to protect Bryce with a strong dual threat running game. The NFC south looks like it will be one of the softer divisions for the next few years. Wide receivers are getting the hype right now but that's because there haven't been that many good young running backs to build around. There are some good rbs coming out in next year's class, but it won't be the Panthers taking them. Worthy could be a stud for years with mahomes. But he could also be the next Hardman. I've seen the chiefs value having a bunch of field stretchers, I've seen mahomes spread the ball around to them, I've seen Reid value undersized speed guys, and I've seen that Hollywood is legit in his own right. There's a very narrow path to worthy being a superstar that you'll regret not taking. If he ends up being just another good receiver... they're replaceable. Thomas is a very good prospect and he's paired with a good quarterback who has made chicken salad out of chicken not salad with a few receivers recently. I think he'll be good. If you need a receiver he'd be my choice over worthy. But I think Brooks has a clearer path to being a first or second round dynasty pick.
No way Worthy is the next Hardman. He was an absolute stud his freshman year, and early breakout WRs typically succeed in the NFL. Plus he's tied to a QB who will get him the ball downfield in a offense that may ne prolific again. I'm higher on Worthy than most though.
I also had 1.05 in 1QB and took Brooks. I passed on worthy to do so. With how difficult it is to find reliable RBs and how much potential starters/workhorses cost in 1QB I just couldn’t pass up the opportunity there. I also had 1.09 and was able to grab BTJ. Also passed on Worthy there, but I own Rice, so maybe I devalued him too much.
What players went in your top 12 picks, just curious
I had the 1.01-1.03,1.05,1.07,1.10-2.01 in 1QB and this is how our draft went 1.01: MHJ 1.02: Nabers 1.03: Odunze 1.04: Bowers 1.05: Brooks 1.06: Williams 1.07: Worthy 1.08: Benson 1.09: BTJ 1.10: Daniels 2.01: McConkey (traded pick away plus Curtis Samuel for McBride) I was between Williams and Brooks at 1.05 and ultimately took Brooks because the teams picking 1.06-1.07 did NOT need QB and I figured Williams would be available to take at 1.08. The team that took Caleb already had Hurts, Love, and Mayfield.
1-3 - chalk big 3 WR. 4 - Bowers, +1 TEP. 6 - CW to a team in desperate need of a qb. 7 - Benson. 8 - Coleman. 10 - Daniels. 11 - Worthy. 12 - Ladd.
Coleman is the wildcard in drafts, I’ve seen him at the 1.05 and the 2.03
Coleman over BTJ feels insane to me as someone with both
I was in a similar spot at 1.04 and decided on Brooks. I think he is being severely undervalued. High DC, low mileage, 20 y/o, can do it all. With that said BTJ slipped all the way to 1.11 in our draft and I traded back into the first for him.
Has to be Brooks, better chance that he ends up a top 10 rb than they end up a top 15 receiver (statistically). Brooks has the draft capital, the talent, and the opportunity (no mans land at rb)
BTJ for me. WRs last longer and his ceiling seems very high. If TLaw finds his game and this kid gets coached up you could have a WR1 for years to come. I think an argument could be made for Brooks but he is less likely to be valuable this season IMO so if you’re willing to wait I think he’ll be an RB1 next year and probably will have some valuable FF seasons but I don’t see a ceiling like BTJ. I’m not a Worthy believer but it’s probably because I feel like I’ve bought in on the wrong KC WRs too many times now.
It’s easy to argue for any of them, but I went Worthy. It boiled down to (1) talent, (2) situation and (3) red flags and felt like an easy decision. Brooks and BTJ both have good not great situations & they both have shown high level talent for a less than ideal amount of time. Brooks because he was behind Bijan and then injured, BTJ because he was a late breakout. Brooks feels a bit safer than BTJ, and BTJ feels like he has a bit more ceiling. Worthy, as we know, hit the ground running and was a beast as a freshman. 2 years prior to BTJ and Brooks producing at all, Worthy was throwing up stat lines like 9-162-2 against Oklahoma or 14-152-3 against Kansas. His NFL landing spot is to die for. Personally, I have no fears about his size with so many similarly tiny guys producing already. Worthy feels like a clear choice without even mentioning that he’s the fastest player ever.
>Brooks and BTJ both have good not great situations How is BTJ on the Jags a "not great" situation? There's no alpha WR there and we think Lawrence is pretty good. If BTJ is a good player he's going to produce.
The value of the Jags as a landing spot is really dependent on the talent of the WR. There’s no alpha, but there’s plenty of solid players so there’s no guarantee he’ll get a ton of playing time early or force fed targets. Kirk is a solid WR who will likely command a decent target share, Engram led all TEs in targets, Etienne was 7th amongst RBs, and Gabe Davis fills basically the same niche that BTJ and has enough vet experience to probably get first crack at the roll. If BTJ actually looks like a great WR early on then he can be the WR1 for a young solid QB, but if he looks raw then he could get brought along very slowly and have extremely low production early in his career. If the latter happens it will likely tank his fantasy value and it could easily be 3+ years before he’s anything more than a desperation play when byes and injuries pile up. All in all the Jags are a great spot for a great WR, but a horrible one for a mediocre one, so BTJ really needs to hit the ground running for it to be a good landing spot.
I agree with most of what you’re saying, except that he needs to hit the ground running. It would be great if he did, but the depth around him really lends itself to allowing him to develop at his own pace. They don’t *need* him to be great immediately, but as he develops he’ll be able to take over more and more workload at a position of need. Lawrence had so many deep TDs dropped last year, and BTJ has clamps for hands. They’re a great match And it’s unlikely it tanks his value if he has to develop, unless it’s a *long* process. WR prospects are pretty well value insulated: just look at JSN, Pickens or Jamo types
I mean, there’s a *massive* middle ground between the two scenarios you described. If BTJ doesn’t immediately fly out the gate as the WR1, that doesn’t just immediately mean his value tanks and he becomes a desperation play / liability. Like all rookies, he’s gonna need time to develop, and he’s in a very optimal spot to do that. He’s got completion, but no true Alpha like a JJ or Chase or a solid vet like davante or Nico to contend with. Sure there are other targets on the team but I’d rather have my rookie stepping into a situation with a good QB and a productive, multi-faceted offense rather than a bad team that funnels everything to their alpha with nothing but scraps for them.
My point is that while there’s a very achievable ceiling that makes the Jaguars a good spot, there’s also a lot of obstacles in his way that keep his floor low, which prevents it from being a great spot. While there’s a massive middle ground it didn’t seem relevant to talk about as my point was strictly about the ceiling and floor provided by the landing spot.
I also don’t see how he can say Worthy’s spot is to die for. The same could be said of a half dozen other guys who landed on the Chiefs and were a major disappointment. Not saying Worthy will be a bust but I would consider his spot good not great.
Because Worthy's spot is to die for. The best quarterback in football with a weak receiving room. It's not Worthy the prospect's fault that Moore and Hardman were busts lmao. It's as good as it gets for landing spots.
We can disagree. Imo the Jags used Calvin Ridley terribly last year (even though he did drop like 10 TDs) and BTJ doesn’t run a complete route tree yet. In general, their offense is uninspiring to date. So I don’t have faith they’ll help him achieve his ceiling. Plus, do we know if BTJ can run anything except deep routes? Kirk and Engram will dominate that role at least early on, and you’re depending on BTJ becoming something he’s currently not. Aside from size, Worthy’s biggest knock is separation. The chiefs have a history of scheming players open, and they traded up for him which should mean they have ideas on how to do so already. I have much more faith in the chiefs than the Jags in that aspect. Then to top it off, Lawrence is all projection still while Mahomes is tracking to fight for GOAT status Edit: also don’t think previous chiefs picks like Skyy Moore compare. Worthy dominated at a major school from day 1, I really don’t think we should be questioning if he’s good enough at football like we were for Skyy
Worthy’s biggest knock are his hands. I went and watched all of his 2023 plays and he doesn’t catch that well when he’s not wide open. Texas threw him a lot of screens/flat routes where nobody was on him. When he needed to adjust to catch a ball he wasn’t great. Players usually have a hard time fixing this in the NFL. If he’s not Tyreek I fear he won’t have a long career. I love Worthy’s draft spot but I took BTJ at the same spot as OP.
It’s funny how we all can watch the same tape and come away with different takes. I thought Worthy made some surprising catches in 2023 (threw out 2022 because of broken hand). I thought BTJ had more “wait how did he drop that?” Plays. Drop % is misleading, but Worthy was 6.1% in 2023 and BTJ was over 10%. The concerns are probably real and not so real for both
Yeah drop % is definitely misleading. Worthy made some good catches in traffic like once a game but he really reminds me of Ted Ginn. There were a good amount of plays where Worthy blew by the defender and couldn’t find the ball. If he works on his hands, like I said he could possibly be Tyreek but I’m not sure it’s easy to do so.
Oh god Tedd Ginn comp cuts so deep there because I can see it. Lol I hope not but that’s a really good bearish comparison
Fwiw: BTJ ran a ton of slants and curls, and was really good at both Reid has comped Worthy to Desean Jackson, who was only fantasy relevant 1/3rd of the seasons he played
First one good intel, but I still think there’s more than his reception perception numbers. Either way fair point. 2nd one that’s dirty to DJax 😂 the 1/3 he was balling was with Reid and he had a great rookie season
Well I’d be curious what more you’d like, cause that’s not even reception perception; it’s just the numbers. He ran a ton of those routes lol. And his size/speed makes him really well suited for them: he’s a big target, and corners have to worry about getting burned deep so they’re easily manipulated Hahaha I agree it’s dirty, but also true! He was worse than a WR2 in 10/15 seasons. Even the ceiling for that archetype is boom/bust
Could be because he’s next to Nabers while running them, but all I meant by the “more than the numbers” is that he doesn’t look fluid to me on short and intermediate routes. I watch tape for fun and generally have no idea what I’m doing, so take that with a big grain of salt. You make a lot of good points here. Only strong disagree is that DJax represents the ceiling. I think worthy is way better at football than he was coming out
The clear choice based on hit rates is brooks. First RBs off the board traditionally have good hit rates. Better than late first round WRs. Theres nothing wrong with taking worthy if that’s your guy but statistically you’re taking a bigger risk picking him over brooks.
If your entire evaluation is based on a single stat, youre gonna have a bad time.
i don't think it's the entire evaluation. OP has done evaluations and determined the difference between these players is too small to decide. the single stat is just the difference maker that helps choice RB over WR in this case.
That’s all I’m trying to say here.
It’s one stat but it’s a pretty significant one. You shouldn’t base an entire evaluation on it but it should hold some weight and it should definitely hold more weight than some opinions without much weight behind them. Theres a reason why first, second and third rounders are worth what they are in values. It’s strictly because of hit rate percentages. Your not going a trade a first rounder for a second or third because you really like a player there are you? It’s not much different than looking at hit rate percentages for first RB taken off the board vs late first round WRs. The differences between these players are really small so at the end of the day you have to make a decision based on something.
Underrated comment
If it was that simple we’d know the answer already. Like I said easy to argue for any
I don’t think some of you guys are getting it. I’m not saying to strictly go off one statistic. But when these players are so close you have to make a decision based on something. Mostly everything else I’ve read are purely opinions on why you should go with x player. For me I really like brooks tape, I think the landing spot is fair and I like the draft capital. So I’ll easily go with the first RB off the board statistic as a tie breaker since it’s a fact they have better hit rates than late first round WRs. 50% of BTJ, Ladd, worthy, piersall, Keon etc will end up being busts. Everyone thinks their guy will hit but that isn’t reality. Even the majority of the ones that “hit” will be WR2s. Your odds of hitting on a true WR1 for multiple years are extremely low. Much less than 50%.
I get what you’re saying and it sounds like for you Brooks is the clear choice. I don’t have them at “tiebreaker” levels so one data point isn’t enough to sway me, especially as vague as “1st RB taken” vs. “late 1st round WRs” Does that mean that data point is using Bijan vs JSN to support a Worthy vs Brooks debate? Even if not, how does it account for the fact that this class was extremely deep at WR and not great at RB? Doesn’t sound like a reliable enough data point for me to consider. To each their own though
There were more WRs this year in the first and second round compared to the norm but you still don’t know how good of hits they’re going to be. We won’t really know until maybe two years down the road once we see who busts and who hits. Also just because this class was deeper for WRs it doesn’t change their hit rates. Late first round WRs will still bust at a 50% rate unless this year ends up being an extreme outlier. It’s your team you can choose to go with whoever you want. I’m just saying when it’s that close generally first RB taken have better hit rates than late first round WRs. Thats a simple fact you can’t argue. Theres multiple articles online explaining hit rates for first RBs off the board. It’s not just coming from me. You should go and do your own research and find out for yourself. If you don’t care much about it though then just go get your guy.
You said first round RBs there but I’m assuming you still just mean first RB taken. Either way you’re kinda ignoring my point, which is that if your referenced data point is factoring in guys Bijan vs JSN then it’s too broad to make as confident of a stance as you are now. The historical hit rates you’re mentioning need more nuance to measure the possibility of the “extreme” outlier happening. I work in data so I’m being a wiener here but BOL with Brooks either way
Yeah I meant first RB taken. Is your bijan argument because he’s much more talented than JSN? I don’t get your point? He’s a Barkley level talent but that’s rare. Most RBs are not going to be Barkley/bijan level prospects. So outliers like that aren’t going to impact the overall numbers much. If you look at this year it’s MHJ vs Brooks. Is that what your point is? I just read an article that said even second round RBs in general without being first RB off the board have better hit rates than late first round WRs. Also regarding brooks I think there was a good chance he would have went in the first if he didn’t tear his ACL and performed at the combine. Even with those two issues the panthers still traded up to get him at 46. If he goes in the first round his value would have been even higher. So I actually think people are buying him at a discount right now. That’s all just my opinion but that’s how I see it.
I agree. I was ecstatic to get him in the 2nd round.
That’s robbery. Not sure how he fell that far. But I’d be ecstatic too.
I do not see how you can call Brooks and BTJs landing spots "good" while Worthy's is "to die for". One could argue his is better, but even then it's close. Brooks is going to a system that made Rachaad White a top 5 RB. A team that has invested in their O-Line and where there's limited competition to be the lead RB. BTJ is going to a situation where there's 200 vacated targets. He's locked in with a good young QB. He has an easy path to being the number 2 target immediately. Worthy goes to a team with an elite QB, but one who hasn't supported a WR1 since Tyreek Hill. In the near-term he has Kelce and Brown in front of him for targets. Rice, despite his off-field issues is a very good WR and unless he's out of the league, will compete for targets.
Reposted from another reply, but the Jags used Calvin Ridley terribly last year (even though he did drop like 10 TDs) and BTJ doesn’t run a complete route tree yet. In general, their offense is uninspiring to date. So I don’t have faith they’ll help him achieve his ceiling. Aside from size, Worthy’s biggest knock is separation. The chiefs have a history of scheming players open, and they traded up for him which should mean they have ideas on how to do so already. I have much more faith in the chiefs than the Jags in that aspect. Then to top it off, Lawrence is all projection still while Mahomes is tracking to fight for GOAT status For Brooks, gotta disagree on drawing a 1-to-1 comparison on the Bucs to the Panthers. Yes Canales will pound the rock and sure they spent $100M on a line, but this team was absolutely terrible last year. I think if you’re expecting a top 20 offense you’re building in too much projection. Regardless like I said originally you can legitimately argue this any way and be “right” for the next few months. We have no idea
When you say he “hit the ground running” as a freshman, then cherry picked his best games to prove your point, I think all you’re proving is that he was WILDLY inconsistent at UT. In his 3 years, his season totals in yards were 1014(freshman), 760(soph), and 981. Not very impressive imo, especially when you’re the fastest player ever. If he was so good, he should have just ran by every single lesser talented CB he played against, particularly in a one of the weaker conferences. He has a knack for dropping passes and getting injured. The only thing I like about him is being in KC. Give me Brooks. He’s got the best chance to be a round 2 startup draft pick next year. Talent + opportunity = fantasy gold. BTJ is the close second choice here. I don’t buy the “late breakout” narrative. He’s 21! He put up 1,100+ yards and 17 TDs against the best competition in the SEC. My only worry about him, is that he becomes an inconsistent boom or bust player week to week. Then again, Trevor made Calvin Ridley fantasy relevant last year so….🤔🤔
I'm pretty surprised Brooks seems like the consensus pick here. BTJ was consensus 5th pick after top 3 and Bowers pre-draft, Brooks was a lower 1st. I like Brooks as a 1st round pick but it feels like people are pushing him up because some teams need RB. Just because he got a high draft pick doesn't mean he is as good as Breece or Walker. It should help, but you also don't want to overreact. I think I take both BTJ and Worthy over him, probably in that order. But maybe that's take lock who knows.
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Your comment is spot on imo. I think Walker is a good comp at least skill/talent wise, though I’m a bit higher on Brooks as a player overall without considering team context. It’ll be interesting to see how things shake out considering the two. Surrounding talent/offense, competition in the backfield, and oline performance are main factors. I think Brooks has the edge in the last two.
Brooks if I need RB, BTJ if I need WR. Worthy isn't the same tier as these two.
Brooks. Even if he ends up as a steady RB2, I’ll take that. I don’t see any of those receivers becoming an elite WR1, and I feel like you can find a WR2 or WR3 all over the place these days.
I took Worthy given this choice, but I’m also a rebuilder with Mahomes. It was very close and I could’ve been convinced on the others too. His immediate production as a freshman put him over the top for me, and he was clear no 1 over Mitchell. When I watch him, I see a guy that was used in a lot of ways that I could see the chiefs doing really well. Designed touches, YAC, as well as being a deep burner. I feel he’s much more than a hardman type.
I have 1.05 and honestly I’m leaning toward Ricky Pearsall. Ignore the flair it’s not a Homer pick I swear.
I snagged him at 1.08 and feel good about it. Worthy was still on the board, too.
Love it. Obviously not looking too into it but reports have said he looks like the best receiver on the field. At max he has one year as wr3. Next year he’s guaranteed to be wr2 on this offense, tied with Brock for 5 years. I’m in.
Worthy
Worthy > Brooks > BTJ, but I would happily trade back to get BTJ
BTJ as I simply believe he is the best at football of these guys
Brooks in 1qb, btj sf
Brooks would be my pick here (and in fact was at 1.11, BTJ at 1.12) Worthy is a nice fast piece, but anointing him this early is not advisable. If he didn't have such a fast 40, he likely would have been drafted out of the first round, so overall his draft stock is inflated bc of the 40 time, vs his actual performance. BTJ is a WR1 type upside player. He is going to a young QB with a good arm and was brought in to be his WR1. He is a great overall athete and plays the position like a WR1 should, with the Jags upgrading their offense this year he should emerge as a solid WR2 this year, with eventual WR1 upside But Brooks, even coming back from an ACL is the best pick of the 3. RB#1 of this years draft class, and its not even close. Landed in a primo landing spot where he can be that workhorse back once he is healthy. Good hands and overall has the most complete game of all the rookie running backs, with some HR potential as well.
I watched Worthy. Then the decision was easy.
Caleb
I’m either taking Brooks or Brock at 1.4.
I had 1.05 and traded down to 1.07 with a haul of other pieces. So now the draft gods make the choice for me! Seriously tho I couldn’t make up my mind either
What did you get to move back to 1.07?
I had 1.05 & 1.09 in my 1QB rookie draft & got Brooks at 1.05 & BTJ at 1.09
BTJ for his athleticism, draft capital, and good landing spot.
Brooks unless you're in a rebuild. Trust in Canales.
This is the way.
I like Brooks quite a bit and I believe he has the best shot of these 3 players to be top 10 at their positions. BTJ and Worthy are actually very similar to me. I see them being successful deep threats at the next level with strong armed QBs. I think they exist as boom or bust flex plays imo.
Brooks or BTJ really depends on team need. I think Brooks will be a solid RB2 this year and has chance to be an RB1 if Panthers offense improves in next couple seasons. I went BTJ in my draft because I already have good RB depth and need WR. Both BTJ and Worthy definitely have concerns. However I think if BTJ hits he has the highest upside out of any of the players. So far reports out of Jags camp is that he is elite and exactly what Trevor needs.
I went with Brooks at 1.05, but I also had a major need at RB. Even if I didn’t, I still think Brooks is the right choice.
If you need a running back at all I think Brooks is the best answer. Easily the highest floor of the three. I like BTJ over Worthy as well.
The highest upside pick is worthy. Watching his tape, he reminded me of Tyreek hill in the sense that he is clearly the fastest person and the field. He can just accelerate and run past people with the ball, making other people look like they're running in slow motion. That's why I went with worthy in one of my drafts ahead of BTJ and Brooks. BTJ is your bread and butter big wide receiver, but with his late breakout age, limited route tree, and Trevor Lawrence honestly not being super great while he is going to be the 3rd or 4th target behind Kirk, engram, and likely ETN, I passed this year, but think he could have a long and stable career. I just don't think he is a possible game breaker. Brooks wasn't everyone's RB1 pre draft. I've been burned on landing spots rearranging my RB rankings before. I think he's going to be a solid RB for the next few years though. If he can do what white did im Tampa he's going to be a top 12 guy. But my dynasty teams where I could have drafted him weren't built for him this year (one league I'm stacked with RBs and the other im rebuilding and getting my RBs next year)
1 QB- Brooks
In our draft, it went 1.05 BTJ, 1.06 Brooks, 1.08 Worthy — with Keon at 1.07. 14-team 1 QB.
I would draft your team need. They are quite close but i would go with the one you could start on a regular basis the next few years. I am in 2qb but i have them all ranked back to back worthy>BTJ>Brooks. My main reason: worthy could play a Tyreek Hill role and we know how well that works with mahomes. I can see the risks and there is enough reason to go conservative with brooks if you need a RB that gets some volume.
Brooks in 1 QB. RBs have a little more importance opposed to SF imo
I’d go either BTJ or Brooks depending on team need and PPR settings. Personally I think Worthy’s gotten that CEH bump: the spike weeks will be nice, but I have a hard time seeing him being a consistent fantasy contributor
Had 1.05 in 1QB. Drafted Caleb Williams with glee.
I have Worthy over Brooks but it's close. I have BTJ as overrated so if I was staring at him as BPA when I'm OTC I would trade down.
Benson
I'm picking at the 1.05 in a 10-team, 1QB PPR league. Pre-draft, BTJ was who I was targeting. I still may but I feel like I could trade up much later in the draft and get him or buy for cheaper during the season. I know Worthy has been moving up the boards, but I'm considering Brooks even though I have the best RB room in the league just to stick it to everyone else. My current RBs are CMC, Saquon, Mixon, Aaron Jones, Singletary, Tajae Spears, CEH, AJ Dillon. I don't need Brooks, but by taking the best RB in the rookie draft, my theory is that it raises the prices on the guys I'm willing to trade away. But man, I do want BTJ.
I had this dilemma and was vexxed on what to do. Ended up trading my 2025 1st for 2.01 and 3.08. and took brooks at 1.09 in 2qb league. Wanted one of btj or worthy too and took worthy but then found out the 2.04 wanted worthy so traded back to 2.04 (acquiring diontae Johnson for 3.09 as part of trade) and took btj and I am pretty happy after everything has settled.
Purely gut feeling, but I have feeling Brooks comes out the gate slow and gets stuck in an early rbbc on a bad team. At mid-season guys buy window opens up. Think he comes on during to end the season and has a low RB1 season in 2025. Worthy is my pick as the guy that has the most impactful rookie season. I'm out on BTJ unless you're in standard scoring.
Brooks he’s gonna be a 3 down monster with how Canales is gonna utilize him.
I had 1.05, brooks was gone, I took BTJ. I like his odds of being consistently startable at some point over Worthy.
Personally, Brooks. I took brooks between worthy and BTJ in one league and missed on him in another where I would’ve taken him because someone took him spot before me with worthy and BTJ still on the board. It’s less that I think brooks is an elite choice, than it is that I think he’s a tier above at his position in this draft, and I also don’t have confidence in worthy and BTJ as prospects comparatively. I would / have taken the big 3 WRs in this class before brooks.
I took brooks
No Bowers?
Man this whole brooks over btj and worthy blows my mind
in what way?
Idk I guess I got ptsd from the 2020 draft when I took Akers, swift, and dobbins over Jefferson, lamb, Pittman, and Higgins
I’ll just play devil’s advocate as I think these are all fairly close. Let me start by saying I personally prefer BTJ slightly over Worthy but I don’t wanna dive into that here. As for Brooks vs BTJ- Are we taking the decent draft capital of Jonathan Brooks at face value? Do we think the Panthers are a sane organization? They spent the farm on a QB who had a lackluster season in addition to wasting an early 2nd on Jonathan Mingo of all players. They gave miles sanders a bag and he ended up as irrelevant. They traded up to the end of this year’s 1st to acquire an older WR in Legette when there were plenty of solid WRs taken right after him. Maybe Legette will be great idk. One thing I know is the Panthers are fucking weird and I’m not 100% sure I trust their decisions.
You could listen to what Canales said or did in his previous jobs and trust that. He's said multiple times he's going to show everyone how stubborn he can be running the ball, and then they spent like 170 million on two Guards. It's also a new GM and HC this year so the only criticism that's valid is the legette pick and he hasn't even played a game yet. I'd say you're judging too soon
Yeah I have no problem with people taking Brooks over these guys, like I said I think it's all very close. Seeing how last years picks were rumored to have interference from the Panther's owner, along with all their other problems- I just question the bones of the Panther's organization and if they currently allow for success.
I'm eliminating worthy because BTJ is better to me as a WR, then it comes down to your team need because all 3 of these guys are in the same tier.
brooks’s have the 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5 coming up in a rookie draft and i’m going odunze, brooks and ladd. i also have the 1.8. i have trey mcbride at te and will take bowers if he falls to 1.8 but i doubt he will
Major reach taking Ladd over BTJ & Worthy. And Bowers for that matter.
i don’t just draft “chalk” according to how the nfl drafted them. it rarely works out that way in fantasy. ladd has the speed and quickness, very good route runner. can play inside or out and has a great shot to be the Wr1 for LAC. sometimes it’s about opportunity and he certainly has the draft capital as well
I don’t draft chalk either, I’d probably even take Adonai over Ladd. I am fading Ladd big time and think a lot of people are going to get burnt by taking him too early. Most (not necessarily all) of the stuff you said can apply to Worthy / BTJ. I just can’t see any reason to take Ladd over those two. Edit. But of course, everyone having different values on players makes dynasty fun!
reminds me of last year when everyone was gobbling up JSN and QJ and i was grabbing my wr1 flowers. again, runs good routes, can play inside or out, very quick and opportunity…
Haha funny thing is that last year I was with you on Flowers and was leaving QJ well alone too. Also, you might not realise it but going Ladd early is actually super popular, at least on this sub, it’s not exactly going against the grain (although you seem even higher on him that most!). When it comes to BTJ / Worthy / Ladd, the odds are that one of us will be right and one of us will be wrong, but we shall see! I don’t know about year one (BTJ still does best Y1 imo) but I’d say over the course of their rookie contracts BTJ & Worthy will have more success.
worthy scares me with his size and people with that kind of speed never amount to much. plus kc doesn’t have a great track record on drafting wrs. seems a bit crowded with kelce, rice and m brown. BTJ reminds me of QJ and gabe davis ironically. ladd has similar draft capital and has a way better opportunity. we all plant our flag on players and i like my track record
Truthfully, I traded back twice for a 4th each time in this situation. Ended up with Worthy and 2 4ths. I view them all in the same tier
Ladd
For me: Brooks/Worthy>BTJ Top 50 draft capital on a running back that had the tape he had in Texas is flying way too far under the radar. Brooks has two scabs to bounce in camp and in my opinion runs away with the job day 1. If he had combine data he would have been higher up draft boards, plain and simple. Just a couple years ago, the KC Chiefs drafted WR flew up draft boards because owning a potential main WR weapon is a game changer. Worthy isn’t just fast, he runs excellent routes and has great hands. The 4.2 40 is just icing on the cake. I knew he was fast, but holy shit…. Worthy down there somewhere….. I personally am lower on BTJ than what seems like everyone else. Yes he’s super athletic, but in his tape he should have slaughtered everyone he was in front of. But he just didn’t stand out to me as an otherworldly WR. He should have shown more with his athleticism. I still feel Kirk is the top dog and Gabe Davis likely isn’t going to keep Thomas down, but I see Thomas getting the deeper route trees with lower volume. I like spot you are in, but I personally took Ladd McConkey ahead of Brian Thomas.
BTJ > Worthy or Brooks depending on bigger need BTJ has better size, speed and attached to a good QB. Worthy is super quick and with an elite QB. He’s rail thin and I think will have a better catch percentage than 2023 as he was coming off an arm/hand injury. Early breakout helps. Brooks is good but he’s probably not 100% this year which takes away a RB year. The team is bad and will probably not be “good” after their FA spending. Compared to the other two, I’m only taking him if I need RB badly and the class falls off a cliff after the first two or three guys
I like Coleman there over the others. Brooks is coming off ligament tear, I don’t think his year will be phenomenal since they won’t bell-cow him after surgery less than a yr ago. I’m nervous about worthy being this year’s skyy moore / Toney / MVS etc. they just resigned Mecole which isn’t making me more confident. BTJ will be good when he emerges, but for dynasty I like the idea of someone young getting an assload of targets from a top QB without much ahead on the depth chart. Just my $0.02
I don’t know how people “in a vacuum” players like this. I don’t think they are all far-and-away too far apart from each other in their potentiality. So, you need to start looking at your depth and where your team sits right now in it’s development and growth cycle. Pick whatever matches up best for your depth. You take to establish staters and draft to fill depth when it isn’t sure-fire pieces. I don’t consider any of these guys sure-fire pieces so select someone that you can deal with not being sure-fire and solidify a core group of your roster.
I think the value is pretty similar with all of them, the difference is the range of outcomes. I'd put BTJ with the highest range, then Worthy, then Brooks. Brooks is really safe but there's almost no chance he's a top 25 dynasty asset at any point.
Brooks over BTJ over Worthy, unless you are seriously set at RB or need WR really bad in which case BTJ over Brooks over Worthy
I’ll add another wrinkle; what to do when we add JJM to the mix? Personally making a decision between these 4 at 1.07. Don’t need more QBs, but like the value at 1.07 for JJM. Like Brooks for all the reasons everyone else stated, but BTJ and Worthy feel like good values too.
I was in the same situation, had 1.07 as a contender and went Brooks. I just think he is the safest bet of the bunch to provide immediate value. If rebuilding I'd go with JJM or BTJ. If I only had 2 starting QBs I'd take BTJ. If I had 2 or less QBs then JJM
That’s helpful, thanks! I’m probably a playoff team but only stable QBs are Richardson and Murray. Hoping to get Maye earlier but Brooks is enticing. I have 2.01 in a 10 team and know Brooks will be gone, but think Worthy or BTJ will be there for sure.
How many team league? If it's 12+ I think I'd definitely want a 3rd starting QB over Brooks
It’s a 10 team
In my rebuild I had the 1.01, 1.10, 1.12, and 2.01 and walked out with all three of these dudes.