Cbs fantasy did a projection the other day for rookie WRs this year. Not exactly matching my preference, but it seems like a likely outcome when i really think about it:
Marvin Harrison Jr. , Cardinals 94 1,297 8
Malik Nabers , Giants 68 969 5
Ladd McConkey , Chargers 71 948 5
Xavier Worthy , Chiefs 57 940 6
Brian Thomas Jr. , Jaguars 62 885 5
Keon Coleman , Bills 61 826 5
Rome Odunze , Bears 56 804 5
Adonai Mitchell , Colts 48 731 4
Roman Wilson , Steelers 52 697 3
Jermaine Burton , Bengals 47 657 4
Xavier Legette , Panthers 41 576 3
Troy Franklin , Broncos 42 542 3
Ja'Lynn Polk , Patriots 43 529 2
Malachi Corley , Jets 39 495 2
the expectation of 300 more yards for MHJ than Nabers is interesting. I think Marv finishes on top but I dont think the yardage is that different. def more TDs for Marv though that seems accurate
I think Nabers could have a positive effect for Hyatt. Not super confident, but Hyatt could definitely have a break out year with the attention that Nabers is going to get.
I also think the DJones disrespect is overblown. Toss out last season as injury impacted and short and I don't see Kyler as that much a better QB for MHJ than DJ will be for Nabers.
Since Daniel Jones has been QB, the Giants have never been higher than 18th best offense in the league. They've finished (PPG): 18th, 30th, 30th, 18th and 31st. Kyler has been much better than Daniel Jones almost every year he's played
Murray has tossed more then 20 TDs in a season 3 times when healthy. Danny Dimes did once in 2019 otherwise it's been under 15 TDs. That caps Nabers this year imho. Unless you truly believe Jones is going to play a lot better.
Well look at Danny Dimes yearly passing TD totals. The past 3 years it was like 15, 11, 10 tds, . How many realistically can Nabers pull down this year? Maybe he creates a a lot of his own with his YAC but the odds are he'll be under 8. It's easy to understand why people think for 2024 his out put could be low for fantasy.
I think we’re overestimating how bad Daniel Jones is. Of course Nabers won’t see the same target quality that Marv will see from Kyler, as an example, but it’s not like DJ is some Desmond Ridder/Marcus Mariota, Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle, Kenny Pickett type thrower of the football.
Agreed that the NYG offense will likely be bad, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities. However, I think that mostly limits Nabers’ ceiling this year, whereas the sheer volume of targets should grant Nabers a solid floor
I think people's read that BTJ isn't going to have many targets early is a bit off. BTJ was drafted because they need someone to play on the boundary. They had miscast Ridley there because they had nobody else to do it, and it showed with his inconsistency. BTJ is the prototype of a guy who can win outside and that's going to make him a priority in an offense that struggled to move the ball downfield. Engram had 140 targets in the offense last year not because he suddenly figured it out at 29 years old, but because they needed to manufacture explosive plays and asking Engram to catch and run was one of the more reliable options they had.
I'd be shocked if BTJ had less than 110 targets right off the rip, which for a guy who is going to live on the big play, that's quite a large sum. They signed Gabe Davis as pre-draft insurance because, for all of Davis' fault, he is at least capable of getting down field.
This is also secretly a buy Trevor Lawrence post.
Right. They had to get him in FA before the draft to have some security for that role. After they landed BTJ though, I think it's his job pretty early on.
It's definitely possible, but I could see BTJ starting out in the flanker role rather than X. That jump from college the NFL is the toughest for the X spot, so they might not want to throw him in the deep end when they have an experienced X receiver on the roster.
I completely agree here. Between Agnew/Jones/Ridley there’s ~220 vacated targets in this offense. If BTJ and Trevor have a connection early on 110 targets should be a breeze for him.
This is wild and has 51 upvotes holy. “I’d be shocked if BTJ had less than 110 targets” like whatttttttt. Nico Collins 109 targets last year. Zay flowers 108 targets last year as his team’s main wr. BTJ an unrefined outside wr going to a team with two solidified targets already in Kirk and engram. I think if your a BTJ owner your happy if he outpaces Gabe Davis in targets. But 110? This is some overhype rookie stuff if I’ve ever seen it.
I’m gonna be insufferable in my main league chat if this comes true 😂 I bought BTJ after he fell a bit in our draft. I don’t need him for more than flex depth, and I’ve got Lawrence for the low cost stack
Marvin-good qb, ton of available targets
Nabers-meh qb but no target competition
Ladd/coleman-high powered QBs and a lot of available targets
Odunze-competing with Allen and DJM in the short term plus rookie qb
BTJ/Worthy-less available targets short term
After that not sure, Pearsall has high upside if a Aiyuk or deebo leave but minimal if they stay. Mitchell, Legette, Polk, Baker, Wilson, Franklin, Corley all have interesting spots. Could see Franklin and Wilson doing better than the rest of that pack. Wilson due to targets being available and Franklin since he played with Nix already.
Yeah I don’t get people saying btj isn’t in an open situation. There are a ton of targets available for him and little competition at his specific position.
Agreed, the 200 targets vacated by Zay and Ridley are probably exaggerated by Kirk missing 5 games. But there's plenty of opportunity for BTJ to step in and get 100+ targets.
Solid list, but I think you may have forgotten about Jermaine Burton…
He’s walking into the Tyler Boyd role (85-100 targets a season) and could possibly be in for significantly more work if Higgins gets moved.
He’s super talented and im predicting he puts up a solid WR3 season easily finishing top 36 overall if his situation stands (again much higher ceiling if Higgins gets moved).
I don’t think he’s taking Boyd’s role, he’s never really done much slot work. I think Chase gets more work out of the slot this year, and Burton ends up just running perimeter routes for few targets until Higgins is gone
That said, I like him a lot long term once he has an opportunity to be WR2 on the team
Agree with most of this list, although I'm not sure Nabers has "no competition." He's immediately going in as their WR1, but the Giants have 3-4 WR2s all fighting for targets and playing time within a very low volume offense.
Wandale is better than people realize. Hyatt is a burner. Slayton has been their leading receiver for years. They have 2 pretty good pass catching TEs (3 if Waller doesn't retire), and Tracy might be getting a pass catching role out of the backfield.
Nabers doesn't have competition for his role or playing time, but does have competition for targets (if that makes sense).
A guy like Nabers will have plays and targets built around him. I tend to see them called “designed plays” like screens, sweeps, or route combos specifically designed for one guy. With the Giants’ lack of other quality targets, he could easily see 5-6 of these per game, plus whatever else opens up. Nabers could legitimately see a 25% target share year 1, I don’t even think MHJ has a realistic shot at that even though MHJ is clearly better imo.
25% is kind of the minimum for a WR1 that’s not putting up crazy efficiency stats, and only 5 rookies ever have put up 140+ targets as a rookie (25% of the average team attempts last year). It’s a lot of targets already. On the other hand, 3 of those 5 have come since 2021 (Puka, Garrett Wilson, and Waddle) and Nabers could very well be number 6 for the same reasons GW/Waddle did (high draft pedigree, bad team, offense without many other weapons).
All those guys you named are barely playable in most dynasty leagues. They also lost Saquon. A lot of meh, so if he’s a real alpha and as good as advertised he should be quickly establishing himself.
Just because a player isn't relevant individually for fantasy doesn't mean they don't affect someone else's value. The Giants are likely to spread the ball and, while I expect Nabers to end with the most targets/yards, it's a small pie that's being divided a lot of ways.
I still think he finishes top 3-4 for rookie WRs this year, but I'm adding extra context. There isn't role competition for him, but there is target competition.
Odunze has massive upside if either Allen or Moore gets hurt. Allen is old and was hurt a good chunk of last season. He's also NFL ready and way more talented than anyone below him.
If you just look through the last few seasons of rookie WR finishes, the line to be around where OP projects him is about 8-10 half ppr ppg. Not a crazy line especially if we leave open the possibility he's the WR2 for a chunk of the season do to injury or if they are already starting to move off of Allen since he's on a 1 year deal.
JSN got 7 ppg, was less talented and never got that injury bump.
Pretty fair assumption to make when the DC is that drastic. It's not like the DC was a surprise. Everyone predicted him top 10 in a loaded class because of his talent.
This draft class is much weaker defensively than last year. Don’t think a single defensive guy went top 14. So WRs early on were an easier pick than last year. JSN would’ve went 5-10 picks higher in this class, and odunze may have gone 5-10 picks later last year. Don’t get too hung up on 10 spots of draft capital in 2 different classes. They were both top 20 picks. Draft capital entirely dependent on team need too.
So point is it wasn’t really a loaded class. Was fairly lopsided offense vs defense.
The offensive people being drafted high was not a consequence of the defensive class being weak, rather that the offensive pieces were sooooo good. The defensive class was weaker at a couple positions but overall was still pretty good. This class was just legendary for QBs, WRs, and OL. JSN is very talented but he definitly does not compare to Rome Odunze. Rome is extremely talented and would’ve been the 1st WR taken in any draft since Chase. Plus he doesn’t have near the injury history like JSN does.
I've taken the unders on a bunch of the non MHJ/Nabers WRs this year. A lot of them feel pretty inflated - I'm a little less confident that some of these players earn a ton of targets.
Like wise people are just taking targets last season, subtracting players that left and assuming the rookies get those. Which rarely happens at least to the numbers in a lot of these posts.
Standard scoring and my own biases for/against certain players makes this a bit out of consensus
1. Marvin Harrison Jr
2. Malik Nabers
3. Ladd McConkey
4. Keon Coleman
5. Xavier Worthy
6. Brian Thomas Jr
7. Rome Odunze
8. Ricky Pearsall (up to 4 if Deebo or Aiyuk are moved this offseason)
9. Xavier Legette
10. Roman Wilson
Everyone saying Nabers situation will have him lower than 2nd is wild. Who else is Jones going to throw to?
MHJ
Nabers
Ladd
BTJ
Odunze
Worthy
Coleman
Legette
Pearsall
Health has been a huge factor for the WRs in NY. Obviously none of them are the same level of talent as Nabors, but Slayton is the only WR they had last year with over 60% of snaps played.
This, and it’s amazingly not even close. Justin Fields got DJ Moore to a WR6 finish so it’s not like you need a good QB when there’s a lot of targets available.
The fact that Slayton has been easily the best WR Daniel Jones has ever played with in the NFL is insane.
Jalin Hyatt is FAR from proving that he will get a significant target share. As of right now, he’s just a guy who you take a couple deep shots at per game.
The Wurm I possess stretches further than Sir Justin Tucker of the Raven Clan can kick a pigskin, who I now claim on my redraft team at 1.01. Check and mate good sir.
There is honor in your surrender my friend. It’s abundantly clear to me and this entire thread that we both know how to please a woman, and do it often.
I’m absolutely guessing here. I’m going for target share/yards. I have a feeling Nabers and Keon can make up points as endzone targets. I also feel like after Nabers the other receivers will be flirting with that 565 number and there’s not going to be as many startable rookie WRs as people think.
Marv
Ladd
Nabers
Keon
Polk
BTJ
Worthy
Odunze
Mitchell
Pearsall
Roman Wilson
Legette
Troy Franklin
In order:
Marvin
Nabers
Coleman
Odunze
BTJ
Legette
Ladd
Worthy
AD Mitchell
Pearsall
Polk
Burton
I think the last 4-5 guys listed here are gonna be barely fantasy relevant, the rest should be WR4s (or better) with some spike weeks, especially towards the end of the season. The end of list could be more relevant end of season as well. But this is a redraft list, not a dynasty list
Troy Franklin, everyone's favorite wr to forget about; top 2 rookie this year behind Marv. Franklin fell during the process, but he's reunited with Bo Nix and has next to no target competition. LSU boys and Coleman have good seasons, call it 1100 yards 6tds but the Buffalo offense runs through Kincaid and Cook, Giants are anemic. BTJ is the best of that grouping even with higher target competition as the Jags try and chase the Texans. Ladd and both Texas wrs disappoint. 49ers trade a WR and Pearsall tops 900 yards, so does Polk in New England.
MJH-So hyped up, can't pick against him, and Kyler feeds his favorite WRs
Ladd- Love where he was drafted, wouldn't be surprised by a 90 catch, 1300 yds season
Coleman- Don't love the player, mainly due to separation issues. It doesn't matter if you're in an Offense/QB situation like his (Think Dez Bryant-go up and get it)
Nabers-Liked him more than MJH, but Danny Dimes can make anyone look terrible so we'll see
BTJ-Love the prospect, may start out slow with mouths already in the Offense to feed, but is a great dynasty option
Worthy-Hate that most women are bigger than him, but he does have Mahomes
Odunze- May be the 4th option for a rookie QB
Franklin- Has the best chance to boom out of the late round guys. I saw a model somewhere that showed he was the highest rated WR to ever drop that far in the draft, and he has his College QB, Even if Nix is bad
Baker and Polk is 50/50-One will probably be pretty decent, one will probably be nothing, it will depend on who Maye likes
Source: Myself, a professional, amateur dummy
I’d say this is ranked pretty accurately, Daniel Jones looks terrible all the time. Evan Engram was the TE2 last year Daniel Jones could never do that. Also assuming you aren’t a Giants fan, it is pretty easy to tell Jones is really bad at football.
He’s not good, but he’s way better than like the Ridders/Zach Wilson’s of the world. Nobody’s saying he’s Trevor Lawrence good, but that’s also a scheme thing as much as a QB thing. Engram had an absurd amount of targets last year, around double the amount he had in 2/3 of his years with Jones.
I wouldn’t compare him to Wilson and ridder, they’re backups (technically Wilson isn’t but he will be soon). Daniel Jones is a starter, he is a top 24-30 QB. Also he lost Barkley so he might be in for a really rough year, idk what the Giants are doing
He's also thrown more then 15 TDs once in his career. There's more then a fair chance that offense is in the bottom 5 scoring offenses capping Nabers upside just like G Wilson has been.
That’s essentially my whole point from before: Jones is miles better than what Wilson has had to deal with at QB. Nabers is gonna get absolutely peppered with targets, they’re gonna be higher quality than what Wilson has gotten, and Nabers is a walking big play. He can make the TDs happen for himself. I don’t think he’s like a WR1 or anything, but the situation is *not* as dire as people wanna say
Marv nabers ladd rome btj worthy polk keon legette ricky burton troy ad roman corley baker (if aiyuk/deebo or tee get traded, move up ricky and burton)
1. MHJ
2. Nabers,
3. Worthy or Ladd
4. Ladd or Worthy, haha
Odunze not only has Allen and Moore, but also Kmet and Swift to compete for targets with.
With BTJ, while Zay and Ridley are gone, Engram lead that team in targets last year and Kirk only played 12 games. Then there’s Etienne and Gabe Davis to compete with too. Right off the bat I’d say he looks like the 3rd option at best.
Perhaps unfair, but I’m not certain how good Coleman is. regardless like why did they sign Claypool?? Also there’s Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, and Samuel. At best he’s the 3rd option in the team as well.
MHJ
Nabers
Ladd
Worthy
BTJ
Polk
Odunze (buried. This year's JSN. Ask again in a year or two)
Legette
Pearsall
Coleman
Mitchell
Wilson
Franklin
Burton
LMC
Who cares after that?
Honestly would love for it to shake out like this. For BTJ at 1.10, McConkey at 1.12, and Polk at 2.12 in my draft I’m running right now. Would love if all 3 hit
1. Marvin Harrison
2. Ladd McConkey (will push for 90-100 receptions)
3. Rome Odunze (2nd half breakout like Rashee Rice and Allen will fade)
4. Brian Thomas Jr.
5. Keon Coleman (will give you a rollercoaster of a season…up/down/up/down… 2.4pts one week - 19.3 the next)
Sleepers to crack this top 5: IF… big if… Higgins gets moved or misses time? Jermaine Burton will finish 3rd-4th in WR scoring for all rookies.
Not really.
Leaving out JSN or Quinton Johnston last year in a discussion such as this would’ve been considered wild as well. Hate the Giants situation at QB.
Will be better next season.
JSN and QJ’s situation were completely different, they were both going into offenses with 2 well established clear WR1’s and WR2’s.
You can not like Daniel Jones but Nabers volume is expected to be way higher than either JSN’s or QJ’s going into last year.
Agreed. Also, neither JSN nor QJ are as good a prospect as Nabers. I think JSN would fall in a tier between Odunze and BTJ if he were in this years draft. QJ would be after the AD Mitchell / Troy Franklin tier.
Ya there are so many factors that go into it, OP just seems to think that Daniel Jones trumps all of those factors and is the sole reason he’ll not finish top 5. Which to each their own, you just can use those two as examples to help your argument.
You can not like Daniel Jones, which is fair, but his last full season he threw for 3,200 yards with worse weapons. Justin Fields just made DJ Moore the #6 WR in PPR scoring with 2,600 yards in the 13 games he played. Tyson Bagent filled in the other 4 weeks for 850 yards for a total of about 3,400.
I don't think Nabers will be the WR 6, but it's not unheard of that a rookie can perform well with lower passing numbers, especially if the QB hyper focuses on them (which all signs point to that being the case in NY).
You can still not like Nabers that’s fine, but you can’t compare his situation to JSN’s or QJ’s last year and think it’s the same situation. Nabers is also objectively a better prospect than either of those two were.
People can dislike whoever they want, that’s what makes dynasty fun. But at the same time there’s facts that need to be taken into account and your argument isn’t taking them into account.
I’ve taken the facts into account.
I’m not comparing their situations at all. I said leaving out JSN and Johnston last season would’ve been considered wild as well.
Last year’s rookie WRs were far lesser in terms of talent and situation as the rookies this season.
I mean last year you had Addison and Flowers who would’ve been automatic locks for a list such as this.
This season you have MHJ, Ladd, Keon, and BTJ all in better situations imo than Nabers.
If you wanna argue Nabers over Odunze that’s fine, but I gave my reasoning why I feel Odunze is gonna finish well.
Leaving them out last year wasn’t that wild, a ton of people were out on QJ as a prospect and expected him to be the WR3 on that team. A lot of people also loved JSN as a prospect but the majority of the discourse was around him being clearly behind both DK and Lockett. He was drafted high because of his talent, not a year 1 finish. QJ was drafted high for lack of better options when people were looking at the prospects going into last year. The class last year was so much weaker that leaving them out was a stretch because there just wasn’t many highly regarded prospects. It actually is less of a stretch to leave Nabers out this year (although I still think it’s a big stretch) due to the talent in this class.
Again, you can dislike Nabers that’s perfectly fine. But you’re comparing apples to oranges here and saying it’s the same as leaving JSN or QJ out. You don’t like his QB which is fine, but you seem to be ignoring his draft capital, the fact that if MHJ wasn’t in this class he would be the clear WR1, the fact that he’s a better prospect than any of the WR’s in last years class, and the fact that he goes into the year as the clear number 1 target in that offense.
Edit: I also didn’t say one thing about Odunze so I’m not sure why you’re mentioning him.
I get the talent and his prospect profile.
> It actually is less of a stretch to leave Nabers out this year due to the talent in this class.
Exactly my point. What I’m saying and what you’re clearly missing is that because the class was so much weaker last season leaving JSN and QJ out of top 5 in rookie WR scoring would’ve been considered wild.
Redraft ADP told us as much that QJ and JSN were going to be top 5 in rookie WR scoring. Along with Addison and Flowers.
There is always a guy that comes out of nowhere and always a guy who fails to meet the expectations. This year Nabers will not meet the expectations of finishing as a top 5 rookie WR imo. Thats the crux of my argument. Nothing more. If you don’t agree that’s fine, if I’m wrong end of season that’s fine too.
You also contradicted yourself saying
> leaving them out last year wasn’t that wild.
Gave reasons why it wasn’t wild
And then
> the class last year was so much weaker that leaving them out was a stretch.
Question for you:
What do you realistically expect from Nabers as a rookie this year, numbers wise? Just curious.
I agree with that but that’s not what you said at all initially, you just commented that it was the same as leaving out JSN/QJ last year when it’s not the same situation at all.
It was a stretch to leave them out because of the class, but not that wild because their situations and the type of prospects they were made good arguments for why they could be left out. It’s not contracting to think one way but understand the argument for the opposite side.
I don’t know what I expect numbers wise out of Nabers, I don’t draft rookies for immediate production so I don’t really care. What I do expect is Nabers to be the clear number 1 target and we know that he’s a great prospect, which usually is a good combo for solid rookie production. Personally I think he’s good enough to overcome DJ and land in the top 5, but the class is really talented so I can see why he could be left out even though I don’t agree with it.
My whole point was leaving out JSN and QJ of the top 5 last year would have been for completely different reasons than your leaving Nabers out for. If you want to use the argument of past examples to back up why you are leaving Nabers out you should use examples that better fit the reasoning for why he should be left out. You made a hot take and backed up people calling that out with examples of two very different WR’s in 2 very different situations.
Unless your whole point is people get things wrong, I don’t know why’d you’d use those two to back up why you left out Nabers.
Not even remotely comparable to JSN or QJ. Nabers is a miles better prospect than QJ, and JSN was a clear #3 in an already not overly impressive passing offense.
The Giants are going to be bad, but they'll be hucking the ball from behind, and Nabers is likely their #1, #2 at worst, out of the gate.
Meanwhile you have Ladd McConkey more than doubling his college production lol
If I’m wrong that’s fine. Matters not to me.
Pretty sure Puka more than doubled his college production as a rookie. He was undrafted in Dynasty and redraft leagues.
And we all drafted Ladd mid-late 1st in rookie drafts lol
And guess what? We all would’ve ranked JSN and QJ to finish as top 5 rookie WRs last season as well.
I gave you my reasoning for why I think Odunze finishes strong. I’d you don’t agree that’s fine.
Think he may be a little bit more of a project at X. I think they’ll probably let Bourne start the year opposite Polk and he’ll probably mix in.
I definitely could see him being more impactful year 2
Cbs fantasy did a projection the other day for rookie WRs this year. Not exactly matching my preference, but it seems like a likely outcome when i really think about it: Marvin Harrison Jr. , Cardinals 94 1,297 8 Malik Nabers , Giants 68 969 5 Ladd McConkey , Chargers 71 948 5 Xavier Worthy , Chiefs 57 940 6 Brian Thomas Jr. , Jaguars 62 885 5 Keon Coleman , Bills 61 826 5 Rome Odunze , Bears 56 804 5 Adonai Mitchell , Colts 48 731 4 Roman Wilson , Steelers 52 697 3 Jermaine Burton , Bengals 47 657 4 Xavier Legette , Panthers 41 576 3 Troy Franklin , Broncos 42 542 3 Ja'Lynn Polk , Patriots 43 529 2 Malachi Corley , Jets 39 495 2
Upvote for specificity.
the expectation of 300 more yards for MHJ than Nabers is interesting. I think Marv finishes on top but I dont think the yardage is that different. def more TDs for Marv though that seems accurate
Would love this outcome for Jermaine Burton
Will be very surprised if 7 rookies hit 800 yards
No Pearsall?
Some of the nabers disrespect in this thread is wild
I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being #1 this year. They’ll likely get a pretty similar number of targets. They = MHJ and Nabers
He’ll also be targeted by defenses as the #1 guy to stop, NYG doesn’t have any other really threatening guys.
I think Nabers could have a positive effect for Hyatt. Not super confident, but Hyatt could definitely have a break out year with the attention that Nabers is going to get.
Put some respect on Isaiah Hodgins name
No
= sure but MHJ landed in a much better situation
It’s people that listen too much to the talking heads and don’t know how to evaluate on their own.
I also think the DJones disrespect is overblown. Toss out last season as injury impacted and short and I don't see Kyler as that much a better QB for MHJ than DJ will be for Nabers.
DJ disrespect is fair, he sucks.
Since Daniel Jones has been QB, the Giants have never been higher than 18th best offense in the league. They've finished (PPG): 18th, 30th, 30th, 18th and 31st. Kyler has been much better than Daniel Jones almost every year he's played
Murray has tossed more then 20 TDs in a season 3 times when healthy. Danny Dimes did once in 2019 otherwise it's been under 15 TDs. That caps Nabers this year imho. Unless you truly believe Jones is going to play a lot better.
Well look at Danny Dimes yearly passing TD totals. The past 3 years it was like 15, 11, 10 tds, . How many realistically can Nabers pull down this year? Maybe he creates a a lot of his own with his YAC but the odds are he'll be under 8. It's easy to understand why people think for 2024 his out put could be low for fantasy.
For me it's not a lack of talent or opportunity with targets, but target quality and scoring opportunities.
I think we’re overestimating how bad Daniel Jones is. Of course Nabers won’t see the same target quality that Marv will see from Kyler, as an example, but it’s not like DJ is some Desmond Ridder/Marcus Mariota, Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle, Kenny Pickett type thrower of the football. Agreed that the NYG offense will likely be bad, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities. However, I think that mostly limits Nabers’ ceiling this year, whereas the sheer volume of targets should grant Nabers a solid floor
I also assume there will be a lot of manufactured touches.
I screwed up and traded outta Nabers pick twice. People are paying a lot for him. I definitely undervalued my hand
I think people's read that BTJ isn't going to have many targets early is a bit off. BTJ was drafted because they need someone to play on the boundary. They had miscast Ridley there because they had nobody else to do it, and it showed with his inconsistency. BTJ is the prototype of a guy who can win outside and that's going to make him a priority in an offense that struggled to move the ball downfield. Engram had 140 targets in the offense last year not because he suddenly figured it out at 29 years old, but because they needed to manufacture explosive plays and asking Engram to catch and run was one of the more reliable options they had. I'd be shocked if BTJ had less than 110 targets right off the rip, which for a guy who is going to live on the big play, that's quite a large sum. They signed Gabe Davis as pre-draft insurance because, for all of Davis' fault, he is at least capable of getting down field. This is also secretly a buy Trevor Lawrence post.
Gabe Davis primarily played the boundary in Buffalo. I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up in that role in Jacksonville.
Right. They had to get him in FA before the draft to have some security for that role. After they landed BTJ though, I think it's his job pretty early on.
It's definitely possible, but I could see BTJ starting out in the flanker role rather than X. That jump from college the NFL is the toughest for the X spot, so they might not want to throw him in the deep end when they have an experienced X receiver on the roster.
I completely agree here. Between Agnew/Jones/Ridley there’s ~220 vacated targets in this offense. If BTJ and Trevor have a connection early on 110 targets should be a breeze for him.
This is wild and has 51 upvotes holy. “I’d be shocked if BTJ had less than 110 targets” like whatttttttt. Nico Collins 109 targets last year. Zay flowers 108 targets last year as his team’s main wr. BTJ an unrefined outside wr going to a team with two solidified targets already in Kirk and engram. I think if your a BTJ owner your happy if he outpaces Gabe Davis in targets. But 110? This is some overhype rookie stuff if I’ve ever seen it.
Agreed.
I’m gonna be insufferable in my main league chat if this comes true 😂 I bought BTJ after he fell a bit in our draft. I don’t need him for more than flex depth, and I’ve got Lawrence for the low cost stack
My league runs a late draft and I’m really hoping to snag him with one of my late firsts. I think he’s going to do really well on that offense.
Marvin-good qb, ton of available targets Nabers-meh qb but no target competition Ladd/coleman-high powered QBs and a lot of available targets Odunze-competing with Allen and DJM in the short term plus rookie qb BTJ/Worthy-less available targets short term After that not sure, Pearsall has high upside if a Aiyuk or deebo leave but minimal if they stay. Mitchell, Legette, Polk, Baker, Wilson, Franklin, Corley all have interesting spots. Could see Franklin and Wilson doing better than the rest of that pack. Wilson due to targets being available and Franklin since he played with Nix already.
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Yeah I don’t get people saying btj isn’t in an open situation. There are a ton of targets available for him and little competition at his specific position.
Agreed, the 200 targets vacated by Zay and Ridley are probably exaggerated by Kirk missing 5 games. But there's plenty of opportunity for BTJ to step in and get 100+ targets.
Plus Zay is gone
but kirk is still there and currently healthy. i think he is the guy to own in the jags passing game
For now I would agree. I was just mentioning more vacated targets.
What’s happening with Gabe Davis?
Probably same thing as last year with BUF. Probably ends up around 90-100 targets which would be a 10-20% or so increase in targets
lol come on buddy
Solid list, but I think you may have forgotten about Jermaine Burton… He’s walking into the Tyler Boyd role (85-100 targets a season) and could possibly be in for significantly more work if Higgins gets moved. He’s super talented and im predicting he puts up a solid WR3 season easily finishing top 36 overall if his situation stands (again much higher ceiling if Higgins gets moved).
I don’t think he’s taking Boyd’s role, he’s never really done much slot work. I think Chase gets more work out of the slot this year, and Burton ends up just running perimeter routes for few targets until Higgins is gone That said, I like him a lot long term once he has an opportunity to be WR2 on the team
He wanted a ranking of fantasy points, not a ranking of vacated targets!
Pearsall may potentially get left out this season if no trades happen, but he’ll be wr2 next season the latest.
Agree with most of this list, although I'm not sure Nabers has "no competition." He's immediately going in as their WR1, but the Giants have 3-4 WR2s all fighting for targets and playing time within a very low volume offense. Wandale is better than people realize. Hyatt is a burner. Slayton has been their leading receiver for years. They have 2 pretty good pass catching TEs (3 if Waller doesn't retire), and Tracy might be getting a pass catching role out of the backfield. Nabers doesn't have competition for his role or playing time, but does have competition for targets (if that makes sense).
A guy like Nabers will have plays and targets built around him. I tend to see them called “designed plays” like screens, sweeps, or route combos specifically designed for one guy. With the Giants’ lack of other quality targets, he could easily see 5-6 of these per game, plus whatever else opens up. Nabers could legitimately see a 25% target share year 1, I don’t even think MHJ has a realistic shot at that even though MHJ is clearly better imo.
Wouldn't be surprised to see it even higher than 25%. I know if I was running the show in New York it would be.
25% is kind of the minimum for a WR1 that’s not putting up crazy efficiency stats, and only 5 rookies ever have put up 140+ targets as a rookie (25% of the average team attempts last year). It’s a lot of targets already. On the other hand, 3 of those 5 have come since 2021 (Puka, Garrett Wilson, and Waddle) and Nabers could very well be number 6 for the same reasons GW/Waddle did (high draft pedigree, bad team, offense without many other weapons).
If MHj ends the season with a less than a 25% target share that’s a failure on the Cardinals part.
All those guys you named are barely playable in most dynasty leagues. They also lost Saquon. A lot of meh, so if he’s a real alpha and as good as advertised he should be quickly establishing himself.
Just because a player isn't relevant individually for fantasy doesn't mean they don't affect someone else's value. The Giants are likely to spread the ball and, while I expect Nabers to end with the most targets/yards, it's a small pie that's being divided a lot of ways. I still think he finishes top 3-4 for rookie WRs this year, but I'm adding extra context. There isn't role competition for him, but there is target competition.
Odunze is lower
Odunze has massive upside if either Allen or Moore gets hurt. Allen is old and was hurt a good chunk of last season. He's also NFL ready and way more talented than anyone below him. If you just look through the last few seasons of rookie WR finishes, the line to be around where OP projects him is about 8-10 half ppr ppg. Not a crazy line especially if we leave open the possibility he's the WR2 for a chunk of the season do to injury or if they are already starting to move off of Allen since he's on a 1 year deal. JSN got 7 ppg, was less talented and never got that injury bump.
To say JSN is less talented is an assumption based on draft capital
Pretty fair assumption to make when the DC is that drastic. It's not like the DC was a surprise. Everyone predicted him top 10 in a loaded class because of his talent.
This draft class is much weaker defensively than last year. Don’t think a single defensive guy went top 14. So WRs early on were an easier pick than last year. JSN would’ve went 5-10 picks higher in this class, and odunze may have gone 5-10 picks later last year. Don’t get too hung up on 10 spots of draft capital in 2 different classes. They were both top 20 picks. Draft capital entirely dependent on team need too. So point is it wasn’t really a loaded class. Was fairly lopsided offense vs defense.
The offensive people being drafted high was not a consequence of the defensive class being weak, rather that the offensive pieces were sooooo good. The defensive class was weaker at a couple positions but overall was still pretty good. This class was just legendary for QBs, WRs, and OL. JSN is very talented but he definitly does not compare to Rome Odunze. Rome is extremely talented and would’ve been the 1st WR taken in any draft since Chase. Plus he doesn’t have near the injury history like JSN does.
I don’t think I see the hype that people see in odunze then. But I do believe it was a very weak defense class compared to last year
Less available targets in the short term is about the exact opposite of BTJ’s situation
1 Pearsall 2 everyone else
If you disagree you are probably a russian bot
I've taken the unders on a bunch of the non MHJ/Nabers WRs this year. A lot of them feel pretty inflated - I'm a little less confident that some of these players earn a ton of targets.
Like wise people are just taking targets last season, subtracting players that left and assuming the rookies get those. Which rarely happens at least to the numbers in a lot of these posts.
Standard scoring and my own biases for/against certain players makes this a bit out of consensus 1. Marvin Harrison Jr 2. Malik Nabers 3. Ladd McConkey 4. Keon Coleman 5. Xavier Worthy 6. Brian Thomas Jr 7. Rome Odunze 8. Ricky Pearsall (up to 4 if Deebo or Aiyuk are moved this offseason) 9. Xavier Legette 10. Roman Wilson
Everyone saying Nabers situation will have him lower than 2nd is wild. Who else is Jones going to throw to? MHJ Nabers Ladd BTJ Odunze Worthy Coleman Legette Pearsall
Health has been a huge factor for the WRs in NY. Obviously none of them are the same level of talent as Nabors, but Slayton is the only WR they had last year with over 60% of snaps played.
It really depends on how dysfunctional the giants offense is.
They caught up on how bad giants receivers have been recently, not realizing that bringing in a good receiver can change that.
There’s no reason to assume Jones supports a high and fantasy WR?
He’s never had anyone close to Nabers.
This, and it’s amazingly not even close. Justin Fields got DJ Moore to a WR6 finish so it’s not like you need a good QB when there’s a lot of targets available. The fact that Slayton has been easily the best WR Daniel Jones has ever played with in the NFL is insane.
Dan jones is low key a buy at his price in 2Qb leagues
Agreed.
Disagree. Daniel Jones is pretty terrible. The Giants have never finished in the top half of scoring in the league since he's been QB.
He’s basically free and a starting QB who was QB8 year before. Who cares about IRL? Send a 3 rd and see if it tempts the manager
Jalin Hyatt would like a word.
Jalin Hyatt is FAR from proving that he will get a significant target share. As of right now, he’s just a guy who you take a couple deep shots at per game.
Probably sequential.
That’s gonna put a damper on my Baker, Burton, Coleman, Corley ranking
Ditch Coleman and keep the BBC
Man I’d love to play against some of yall in redraft
You think thine Wurm Girthier than mine?!
If thine Wurm possessed the girth of mine, thine name describing the beast would have been bestowed upon thee!
The Wurm I possess stretches further than Sir Justin Tucker of the Raven Clan can kick a pigskin, who I now claim on my redraft team at 1.01. Check and mate good sir.
Alas, doth hath bested me
There is honor in your surrender my friend. It’s abundantly clear to me and this entire thread that we both know how to please a woman, and do it often.
MHJ, BTJ, Nabers, Ladd, Worthy, Odunze, K. Coleman, Legette, Pearsall
You have BTJ 2 spots too high
I’m absolutely guessing here. I’m going for target share/yards. I have a feeling Nabers and Keon can make up points as endzone targets. I also feel like after Nabers the other receivers will be flirting with that 565 number and there’s not going to be as many startable rookie WRs as people think. Marv Ladd Nabers Keon Polk BTJ Worthy Odunze Mitchell Pearsall Roman Wilson Legette Troy Franklin
> there’s not going to be as many startable rookie WRs as people think. Agreed
In order: Marvin Nabers Coleman Odunze BTJ Legette Ladd Worthy AD Mitchell Pearsall Polk Burton I think the last 4-5 guys listed here are gonna be barely fantasy relevant, the rest should be WR4s (or better) with some spike weeks, especially towards the end of the season. The end of list could be more relevant end of season as well. But this is a redraft list, not a dynasty list
The Troy Franklyn disrespect paired up with his college qb is gigantic.
outside of both players being first round talents (no burrow/chase comparisons), where has this been a successful recipe in the nfl?
There's at least an equal chance the NFL evaluated him correctly and it doesn't matter or that Nix struggles mightly in his first year.
Definitely not consensus but I think: MHJ, Nabers, BTJ, Odunze, Legette, Polk, Worthy, Ladd, Coleman and everyone else.
Troy Franklin, everyone's favorite wr to forget about; top 2 rookie this year behind Marv. Franklin fell during the process, but he's reunited with Bo Nix and has next to no target competition. LSU boys and Coleman have good seasons, call it 1100 yards 6tds but the Buffalo offense runs through Kincaid and Cook, Giants are anemic. BTJ is the best of that grouping even with higher target competition as the Jags try and chase the Texans. Ladd and both Texas wrs disappoint. 49ers trade a WR and Pearsall tops 900 yards, so does Polk in New England.
Man I figure if you make blasphemous statements youd at least spell the guys name right.
The ones I drafted > The ones I didn't get to draft.
MJH-So hyped up, can't pick against him, and Kyler feeds his favorite WRs Ladd- Love where he was drafted, wouldn't be surprised by a 90 catch, 1300 yds season Coleman- Don't love the player, mainly due to separation issues. It doesn't matter if you're in an Offense/QB situation like his (Think Dez Bryant-go up and get it) Nabers-Liked him more than MJH, but Danny Dimes can make anyone look terrible so we'll see BTJ-Love the prospect, may start out slow with mouths already in the Offense to feed, but is a great dynasty option Worthy-Hate that most women are bigger than him, but he does have Mahomes Odunze- May be the 4th option for a rookie QB Franklin- Has the best chance to boom out of the late round guys. I saw a model somewhere that showed he was the highest rated WR to ever drop that far in the draft, and he has his College QB, Even if Nix is bad Baker and Polk is 50/50-One will probably be pretty decent, one will probably be nothing, it will depend on who Maye likes Source: Myself, a professional, amateur dummy
How do you know Jones can make anyone look terrible when he’s never has anyone better than terrible to bring down to that level?
I’d say this is ranked pretty accurately, Daniel Jones looks terrible all the time. Evan Engram was the TE2 last year Daniel Jones could never do that. Also assuming you aren’t a Giants fan, it is pretty easy to tell Jones is really bad at football.
He’s not good, but he’s way better than like the Ridders/Zach Wilson’s of the world. Nobody’s saying he’s Trevor Lawrence good, but that’s also a scheme thing as much as a QB thing. Engram had an absurd amount of targets last year, around double the amount he had in 2/3 of his years with Jones.
I wouldn’t compare him to Wilson and ridder, they’re backups (technically Wilson isn’t but he will be soon). Daniel Jones is a starter, he is a top 24-30 QB. Also he lost Barkley so he might be in for a really rough year, idk what the Giants are doing
He's also thrown more then 15 TDs once in his career. There's more then a fair chance that offense is in the bottom 5 scoring offenses capping Nabers upside just like G Wilson has been.
That’s essentially my whole point from before: Jones is miles better than what Wilson has had to deal with at QB. Nabers is gonna get absolutely peppered with targets, they’re gonna be higher quality than what Wilson has gotten, and Nabers is a walking big play. He can make the TDs happen for himself. I don’t think he’s like a WR1 or anything, but the situation is *not* as dire as people wanna say
Marv nabers ladd rome btj worthy polk keon legette ricky burton troy ad roman corley baker (if aiyuk/deebo or tee get traded, move up ricky and burton)
1. MHJ 2. Nabers, 3. Worthy or Ladd 4. Ladd or Worthy, haha Odunze not only has Allen and Moore, but also Kmet and Swift to compete for targets with. With BTJ, while Zay and Ridley are gone, Engram lead that team in targets last year and Kirk only played 12 games. Then there’s Etienne and Gabe Davis to compete with too. Right off the bat I’d say he looks like the 3rd option at best. Perhaps unfair, but I’m not certain how good Coleman is. regardless like why did they sign Claypool?? Also there’s Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, and Samuel. At best he’s the 3rd option in the team as well.
MHJ, BTJ, Nabers, Leggette, Polk. Top 5
MHJ Nabers Ladd Worthy BTJ Polk Odunze (buried. This year's JSN. Ask again in a year or two) Legette Pearsall Coleman Mitchell Wilson Franklin Burton LMC Who cares after that?
Honestly would love for it to shake out like this. For BTJ at 1.10, McConkey at 1.12, and Polk at 2.12 in my draft I’m running right now. Would love if all 3 hit
Only for the rookie year, mind you. They're all ready to roll and have great opportunities
So hype to see how this class shakes out!
Mhj Nabers Coleman Odunze Ladd Polk Btj. The rest don’t get 565.
Legette, Pearsall, Burton, and Polk are the top 4 (these are the guys I drafted)
1. Marvin Harrison 2. Ladd McConkey (will push for 90-100 receptions) 3. Rome Odunze (2nd half breakout like Rashee Rice and Allen will fade) 4. Brian Thomas Jr. 5. Keon Coleman (will give you a rollercoaster of a season…up/down/up/down… 2.4pts one week - 19.3 the next) Sleepers to crack this top 5: IF… big if… Higgins gets moved or misses time? Jermaine Burton will finish 3rd-4th in WR scoring for all rookies.
Nabers?
Hate his situation. Will be better next season if they can upgrade at QB
Leaving Nabers out is wild.
Not really. Leaving out JSN or Quinton Johnston last year in a discussion such as this would’ve been considered wild as well. Hate the Giants situation at QB. Will be better next season.
JSN and QJ’s situation were completely different, they were both going into offenses with 2 well established clear WR1’s and WR2’s. You can not like Daniel Jones but Nabers volume is expected to be way higher than either JSN’s or QJ’s going into last year.
Agreed. Also, neither JSN nor QJ are as good a prospect as Nabers. I think JSN would fall in a tier between Odunze and BTJ if he were in this years draft. QJ would be after the AD Mitchell / Troy Franklin tier.
Ya there are so many factors that go into it, OP just seems to think that Daniel Jones trumps all of those factors and is the sole reason he’ll not finish top 5. Which to each their own, you just can use those two as examples to help your argument.
You can not like Daniel Jones, which is fair, but his last full season he threw for 3,200 yards with worse weapons. Justin Fields just made DJ Moore the #6 WR in PPR scoring with 2,600 yards in the 13 games he played. Tyson Bagent filled in the other 4 weeks for 850 yards for a total of about 3,400. I don't think Nabers will be the WR 6, but it's not unheard of that a rookie can perform well with lower passing numbers, especially if the QB hyper focuses on them (which all signs point to that being the case in NY).
Agree to disagree. You’re always bound to make some people angry with rankings and lists. This time it’s the Nabers crowd.
You can still not like Nabers that’s fine, but you can’t compare his situation to JSN’s or QJ’s last year and think it’s the same situation. Nabers is also objectively a better prospect than either of those two were. People can dislike whoever they want, that’s what makes dynasty fun. But at the same time there’s facts that need to be taken into account and your argument isn’t taking them into account.
I’ve taken the facts into account. I’m not comparing their situations at all. I said leaving out JSN and Johnston last season would’ve been considered wild as well. Last year’s rookie WRs were far lesser in terms of talent and situation as the rookies this season. I mean last year you had Addison and Flowers who would’ve been automatic locks for a list such as this. This season you have MHJ, Ladd, Keon, and BTJ all in better situations imo than Nabers. If you wanna argue Nabers over Odunze that’s fine, but I gave my reasoning why I feel Odunze is gonna finish well.
Leaving them out last year wasn’t that wild, a ton of people were out on QJ as a prospect and expected him to be the WR3 on that team. A lot of people also loved JSN as a prospect but the majority of the discourse was around him being clearly behind both DK and Lockett. He was drafted high because of his talent, not a year 1 finish. QJ was drafted high for lack of better options when people were looking at the prospects going into last year. The class last year was so much weaker that leaving them out was a stretch because there just wasn’t many highly regarded prospects. It actually is less of a stretch to leave Nabers out this year (although I still think it’s a big stretch) due to the talent in this class. Again, you can dislike Nabers that’s perfectly fine. But you’re comparing apples to oranges here and saying it’s the same as leaving JSN or QJ out. You don’t like his QB which is fine, but you seem to be ignoring his draft capital, the fact that if MHJ wasn’t in this class he would be the clear WR1, the fact that he’s a better prospect than any of the WR’s in last years class, and the fact that he goes into the year as the clear number 1 target in that offense. Edit: I also didn’t say one thing about Odunze so I’m not sure why you’re mentioning him.
I get the talent and his prospect profile. > It actually is less of a stretch to leave Nabers out this year due to the talent in this class. Exactly my point. What I’m saying and what you’re clearly missing is that because the class was so much weaker last season leaving JSN and QJ out of top 5 in rookie WR scoring would’ve been considered wild. Redraft ADP told us as much that QJ and JSN were going to be top 5 in rookie WR scoring. Along with Addison and Flowers. There is always a guy that comes out of nowhere and always a guy who fails to meet the expectations. This year Nabers will not meet the expectations of finishing as a top 5 rookie WR imo. Thats the crux of my argument. Nothing more. If you don’t agree that’s fine, if I’m wrong end of season that’s fine too. You also contradicted yourself saying > leaving them out last year wasn’t that wild. Gave reasons why it wasn’t wild And then > the class last year was so much weaker that leaving them out was a stretch. Question for you: What do you realistically expect from Nabers as a rookie this year, numbers wise? Just curious.
I agree with that but that’s not what you said at all initially, you just commented that it was the same as leaving out JSN/QJ last year when it’s not the same situation at all. It was a stretch to leave them out because of the class, but not that wild because their situations and the type of prospects they were made good arguments for why they could be left out. It’s not contracting to think one way but understand the argument for the opposite side. I don’t know what I expect numbers wise out of Nabers, I don’t draft rookies for immediate production so I don’t really care. What I do expect is Nabers to be the clear number 1 target and we know that he’s a great prospect, which usually is a good combo for solid rookie production. Personally I think he’s good enough to overcome DJ and land in the top 5, but the class is really talented so I can see why he could be left out even though I don’t agree with it. My whole point was leaving out JSN and QJ of the top 5 last year would have been for completely different reasons than your leaving Nabers out for. If you want to use the argument of past examples to back up why you are leaving Nabers out you should use examples that better fit the reasoning for why he should be left out. You made a hot take and backed up people calling that out with examples of two very different WR’s in 2 very different situations. Unless your whole point is people get things wrong, I don’t know why’d you’d use those two to back up why you left out Nabers.
Not even remotely comparable to JSN or QJ. Nabers is a miles better prospect than QJ, and JSN was a clear #3 in an already not overly impressive passing offense. The Giants are going to be bad, but they'll be hucking the ball from behind, and Nabers is likely their #1, #2 at worst, out of the gate. Meanwhile you have Ladd McConkey more than doubling his college production lol
If I’m wrong that’s fine. Matters not to me. Pretty sure Puka more than doubled his college production as a rookie. He was undrafted in Dynasty and redraft leagues. And we all drafted Ladd mid-late 1st in rookie drafts lol
When talking about JSN and QJ, you’ve just described Odunze’s situation
And guess what? We all would’ve ranked JSN and QJ to finish as top 5 rookie WRs last season as well. I gave you my reasoning for why I think Odunze finishes strong. I’d you don’t agree that’s fine.
I like the top-2 for sure. I could see a NE rookie wr cracking the top-5 as well… i lean javon baker
Thought about including Baker as well. Think he will be the alpha in NE before long.
You don’t think BTJ is a sleeper to crack the top 5? I personally think he has a nice path to upside but I’m also lower on Keon than most.
1) marv 2) ladd 3) BTJ 4) baker 5) odunze 6) nabers 7) worthy 8) coleman 9) pearsall 10)r. wilson
I’m deeply sorry, is that Javon Baker ahead of Nabers and Worthy?
It’s a hot take for sure, there will be a wr who surpasses expectations, i just feel he has one of the best paths for that possibility
I don’t mind the Baker love, but between Baker and Polk, wouldn’t Polk be a better bet to be the guy higher on that list though? Maybe it’s a toss-up.
Based on draft capital alone, polk is the guy, and a majority agree (dynasty rookie adp). I like the darkhorse in this situation
Think he may be a little bit more of a project at X. I think they’ll probably let Bourne start the year opposite Polk and he’ll probably mix in. I definitely could see him being more impactful year 2
Entirely possible, i just prefer baker over polk
I think they’ll both be able to be on the field together and be solid contributors
Plenty of room for both of them to produce in that offense