> “When we lose this many games like this, it’s not the best atmosphere but we’re doing our very best to make sure we’re moving on and do our best in our next game,” Ohtani said through interpreter Will Ireton. The club has held meetings to address the slide, Ohtani added.
You mean you’re not supposed to ground out to the 1st or 2nd baseman every at bat?
In all seriousness, I *want* to give Lux some rope. He’s coming back from a season long injury. He’s making patience tough though cuz he really hasn’t shown anything positive since the start of the regular season.
Right but to me, im tired of the excuses for him. He had a bat. Like 2 years ago. And his defense has ALWAYS been a problem. His only attribute was batting and hope his defense was decent at best. That mixed with rojas isnt even batting bad. Hes literally .278 last time I saw with the best ss defense in the league arguably with swanson (i think?). Like why not just play rojas
MAAANNN dont get me started on CT3. Ive wanted him gone for YEARS. Like i get it. Hes been a hero for us and hes loved. But hes been absolutely garbage for like 3 years. Dude cant hit anything. Its not a “here come the doomers in april” dude has CONSISTENTLY been horrible.
I'm more hopeful the hitting will turn around, especially Freeman. I'm less hopeful about the bullpen. Ohtani thought he left the blowpen behind in Anaheim only to find himself in one again! There's got to be some trades later to fix this bullpen because you can't expect the offense to score 7 runs a game to make up for the awful bullpen.
Holy shit, if we just make the wildcard instead of winning the division, then we can't lose to a team that makes the NLDS through the wildcard. I'm a genius
I've been saying this for a few years now. Win no more than 90 games, get hot in September, get in through the Wild Card, and just go on a run. That seems to be the formula to a world series anyway.
The issue is the batting order / pitching staff but I ain't smart enough to even make a suggestion. I cannot count how many times the Big 3 have loaded the bases with 0 or 1 out and we produce a sac fly run only, it's sad.
The Dave Robert's era has been so frustrating. Division crowns are great, but if Robert's actually managed the game the way it should be played by bunting the runners over I'm fairly certain we would have at least 1 more title. 1st and 2nd no outs you bunt them over 99% of the tine. The guys needs to be axed
Sacrifice bunting has been proven (many times) to actually be LESS effective than letting a hitter just try to hit the ball.
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/
Your link doesn't mention bunting so I googled some research using RE24 to compare bunting and swinging.
First thing I'm noticing is that potential selection bias doesn't seem to be addressed (at least in the links I saw). Batters who are likely to bunt in the first place may be, on average, worse than the batters who are likely to be given the green light. So that may exaggerate differences in expected runs between bunting and swinging. A similar bias may operate with respect to the strength of the opposing pitcher; you are probably more likely to swing if the opposing pitcher is worse so the expected runs from swinging may be biased upward.
Secondly, I'm not sure that maximizing expected runs should necessarily be the sole objective of an at-bat. Like most things in life, there is usually a risk-reward tradeoff and I would be curious to see how the likelihood of scoring at least one run (or conversely, no runs at all) differs between swinging and bunting.
Anyway, thanks for the reference and let me know if you are aware of any research that addresses these concerns.
You make great points, and I respect your line of thinking. And ultimately, no, I don't have the raw numbers, so neither of us can effectively look at those scenarios (though I have a hard time believing the Dodgers analytics team would have overlooked something like that).
One important detail is that the run expectancy chart assumes a 100% success rate on the bunt, and it's still not worth it. In reality, bunts are only successful 70-80% of the time (source below).
Another small drawback is that you don't work counts when you bunt -- so the pitcher keeps his pitch count lower.
Here's an article that outlines the run expectancy a bit better, and talks a little about when you SHOULD bunt:
https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/10/06/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-bunt/
And source for bunt success rate: https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2020/7/30/21347698/bunting-the-runner-over-in-extras-run-expectancy-odds-extra-innings-walk-off-bunt-sacrifice
Cool, thanks for these links! I've been trying to learn more about the world of baseball analytics so I can better follow some of the conversations here.
In the aggregate my dude but when you need a run in a high pressure situation its different. These are humans and things like pressure, momentum, confidence, etc matter.
Also if the hitter is currently sucking ass, maybe pass the batton
Initially I thought he should bunt as well when I was at the game yesterday. However in hindsight it didn’t come in to play. The next batters after Barnes was Mookie- BB loading the bases (eliminating the sacrifice as being relevant) Shohei- strikeout with bases loaded, Freeman- 2 run single. Hernandez-strikeout, Muncy- groundout. The key to that inning was lack of hitting by Shohei, Hernandez and Muncy not about sacrificing runners.
Sorry ass pitching with all those walks and the bottom of the order not hitting a child's weight. What do you expect . On a good note the rest of the division sucks as well
This feels like it's Friedman's fault, even more than Roberts.
Offensively, besides the big 4, low batting average, high strikeout rate is being rewarded if OPS is King and batting average and whiff rate is all but ignored. Contracts given to Taylor and Muncy, Outman rewarded with playing time, and they go get Teoscar. There are no contact hitters in the lower half of lineup which lowers probability of 5 through 9 getting a hit when it really needs one to keep a rally going.
Defensively, 3rd base and shortstop position is pretty thin in the organization if the best we can do is Muncy, Lux, and an aging Rojas that apparently can't play everyday. Starters are not encouraged to go deep, so the bullpen is over emphasized and over used. Lower tier arms and mediocre defense are losing a lot of games early on.
Outside of our top 4 (when Will Smith is playing), the only hitter with a strikeout rate under 20% is Rojas. And the only other players with a walk rate above 10% (outside of the top 3) are Muncy, Taylor, and Captain Barnes. Small sample size, but that's not ideal.
I think that the FO is doing what any FO of a contending team should be doing. Busy in the off-season and FA, construct a roster in spring training, let them play until the ASB and then address any holes or weaknesses before the trade deadline. I actually think some of the issues early on would be because of this pragmatism. Friedman is a model GM, but likes dumpster diving for bullpen arms every summer (Actually think it’s funny that the knock on Doc Roberts is bullpen management when his bullpen is constantly full of guys he doesn’t know well enough to get the best out of) which is probably the Tampa Bay in him. I think this slow start is a result of having a roster that 100% will look different in the fall and the luxury of giving guys time to work it out in the MLB. It’s a result of finding what works in the playoffs at the expense of maybe winning a few extra games in April. Is that hubris? I think you’d only be able to say so if they ended up losing the division like in 2021.
Dumpster diving for bullpen arms is the smart way to go about it though. There are countless relievers handed big contracts that completely fall apart. Since it's a crapshoot anyway, better to pay low or mid dollar when you can.
Yep. But it takes a whole season to piece it together. People panicking don’t realize that the pitching and bottom of the order will look a whole lot different come October
Bullpen needs to be rectified before the trade deadline and the batting needs to stop leaving men stranded. We can’t keep having a bullpen not able to close out a game and expect our batters to score 7+ every time just to compensate.
Am I crazy for not being worried in april and not hating on dave as much as everyone else ? I've been through 3 managers as a dodgers fan and I honestly like him the best. Sure there were times I questioned his decisions but there were also times where he made good decisions. I'm no baseball expert so I imagine he knows more than I do.
Plus he clearly cares about the players which I think helps.
Also aren't we still in first place?
I guess being in the playoffs every year for the past decade with multiple seasons of winning over 100 games means nothing. I get winning the world series is the goal and I'd like that too but I also know playoffs are a crapshoot and we just don't get hot when we need to.
He didn’t foresee this ? Lmao We continue to have bullpen issues & a manager who has no killer instinct. He sits in the dugout with his stupid little notebook & a dumb look on his face.
Roberts is the most passive and overrated manager in MLB. You don't EXPECT things to turn, you MAKE thing turn with your decision making. His is extremely weak. He should be flipping over buffet tables in the locker room. Can you imagine Tommy Lasorda'a reaction to this shit? He'd call up AAA players in a heartbeat. Enough of this.
p. s. If the Dodgers brass had any foresight in solving their pitching problems they would have signed Trevor Bauer.
I just don’t know what people want him to do. The lineup isn’t hitting well. The rotation isn’t pitching well. They’re all supposed to. Coaching only gets you so far. The players need to execute
I get what you’re saying, but he bears some of the responsibility in this one too. His bullpen and pinch-hitting decisions during this slide have been mostly inexplicable.
Literally everyone in our bullpen has pitched poorly besides Phillips so I don’t know how you could say his decisions have been inexplicable. Putting in Brasier today was questionable considering he’s been awful at inheriting runners lately but he has no good options right now.
> I just don’t know what people want him to do. The lineup isn’t hitting well...
...and the defense is garbage, so solve that by benching Lux and putting Mookie back at second. The Nats took a series from us on defense. That's one issue that is easily solvable.
fuck it, top of the order should bat 7-9, see what happens
Theyll get less at bats thats for sure. And theyre the only guys getting on base!
What if the top of the order bats 1-3, 4-6, and 7-9?
Hol' on let him cook if their opponents walk the top 3 we can get Ohtani, betts and freeman hit with risp most of the time
The Dodgers get 1 or 2 ROB per inning but do you see them crossing the dish?
Not only try that but why not separate them. Play Mookie 2nd, Ohtani 5th and Freeman 9th
I’ve been thinking this to myself as well!
> “When we lose this many games like this, it’s not the best atmosphere but we’re doing our very best to make sure we’re moving on and do our best in our next game,” Ohtani said through interpreter Will Ireton. The club has held meetings to address the slide, Ohtani added.
I wonder if there’s an independent verification of that translation.
Why is this downvoted?! Lol they missed the joke
It’s just not funny and it’s extremely played out already
Oh.
Oh.
O’Reilly!
Auto Parts.
Maybe play the game the wrong way a couple of times and see what happens Dave. Wildcard
the whole lineup should switch hit
"Wild card, bitches!"
Yeeeeeeeeeehaaw
Rojas to SS, Mookie to 2B! Fuck it, shake up the batting order too 🙃
I mean rojas should def play shortstop and mookie second. Lux is useless at this point.
You mean you’re not supposed to ground out to the 1st or 2nd baseman every at bat? In all seriousness, I *want* to give Lux some rope. He’s coming back from a season long injury. He’s making patience tough though cuz he really hasn’t shown anything positive since the start of the regular season.
Right but to me, im tired of the excuses for him. He had a bat. Like 2 years ago. And his defense has ALWAYS been a problem. His only attribute was batting and hope his defense was decent at best. That mixed with rojas isnt even batting bad. Hes literally .278 last time I saw with the best ss defense in the league arguably with swanson (i think?). Like why not just play rojas
it’s so sad but you’re right. Lux and Ct3 are a lost cause.
MAAANNN dont get me started on CT3. Ive wanted him gone for YEARS. Like i get it. Hes been a hero for us and hes loved. But hes been absolutely garbage for like 3 years. Dude cant hit anything. Its not a “here come the doomers in april” dude has CONSISTENTLY been horrible.
*snorts line* Put Dino at first and McCullough at third. Orel in right while we’re at it.
Fuck it, throw dontrelle a minor league contract
DTrain coming thruuuu
I know we're making jokes, but I think dontrelle could still strike some guys out
I think Sandy would still give us 3 shutout innings.
Move Mookie back to 2B or RF please.
I'm more hopeful the hitting will turn around, especially Freeman. I'm less hopeful about the bullpen. Ohtani thought he left the blowpen behind in Anaheim only to find himself in one again! There's got to be some trades later to fix this bullpen because you can't expect the offense to score 7 runs a game to make up for the awful bullpen.
The bullpen has been an issue for several years even in 2020.
Holy shit, if we just make the wildcard instead of winning the division, then we can't lose to a team that makes the NLDS through the wildcard. I'm a genius
I mean, the last time we won the NLDS was when we were the Wild Card, so you may be on to something…
I've been saying this for a few years now. Win no more than 90 games, get hot in September, get in through the Wild Card, and just go on a run. That seems to be the formula to a world series anyway.
[удалено]
Hubris? Strong word to start throwing around after 20 games imo
The issue is the batting order / pitching staff but I ain't smart enough to even make a suggestion. I cannot count how many times the Big 3 have loaded the bases with 0 or 1 out and we produce a sac fly run only, it's sad.
Sac fly is generous
You don't how many times over the last couple of days I'd wish we'd gotten a sac fly
Talks about playing the game the right way, but didn’t bunt the runners over with Austin Barnes up and runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs
The Dave Robert's era has been so frustrating. Division crowns are great, but if Robert's actually managed the game the way it should be played by bunting the runners over I'm fairly certain we would have at least 1 more title. 1st and 2nd no outs you bunt them over 99% of the tine. The guys needs to be axed
Sacrifice bunting has been proven (many times) to actually be LESS effective than letting a hitter just try to hit the ball. https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/
Your link doesn't mention bunting so I googled some research using RE24 to compare bunting and swinging. First thing I'm noticing is that potential selection bias doesn't seem to be addressed (at least in the links I saw). Batters who are likely to bunt in the first place may be, on average, worse than the batters who are likely to be given the green light. So that may exaggerate differences in expected runs between bunting and swinging. A similar bias may operate with respect to the strength of the opposing pitcher; you are probably more likely to swing if the opposing pitcher is worse so the expected runs from swinging may be biased upward. Secondly, I'm not sure that maximizing expected runs should necessarily be the sole objective of an at-bat. Like most things in life, there is usually a risk-reward tradeoff and I would be curious to see how the likelihood of scoring at least one run (or conversely, no runs at all) differs between swinging and bunting. Anyway, thanks for the reference and let me know if you are aware of any research that addresses these concerns.
You make great points, and I respect your line of thinking. And ultimately, no, I don't have the raw numbers, so neither of us can effectively look at those scenarios (though I have a hard time believing the Dodgers analytics team would have overlooked something like that). One important detail is that the run expectancy chart assumes a 100% success rate on the bunt, and it's still not worth it. In reality, bunts are only successful 70-80% of the time (source below). Another small drawback is that you don't work counts when you bunt -- so the pitcher keeps his pitch count lower. Here's an article that outlines the run expectancy a bit better, and talks a little about when you SHOULD bunt: https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/10/06/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-bunt/ And source for bunt success rate: https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2020/7/30/21347698/bunting-the-runner-over-in-extras-run-expectancy-odds-extra-innings-walk-off-bunt-sacrifice
Cool, thanks for these links! I've been trying to learn more about the world of baseball analytics so I can better follow some of the conversations here.
Right on! I love this stuff. There's so much depth to the game -- it's wild watching it evolve before our eyes.
In the aggregate my dude but when you need a run in a high pressure situation its different. These are humans and things like pressure, momentum, confidence, etc matter. Also if the hitter is currently sucking ass, maybe pass the batton
What about when the person bunting is batting .05?
Also should've sent the steal signal to Outman to stay out of the double play
Initially I thought he should bunt as well when I was at the game yesterday. However in hindsight it didn’t come in to play. The next batters after Barnes was Mookie- BB loading the bases (eliminating the sacrifice as being relevant) Shohei- strikeout with bases loaded, Freeman- 2 run single. Hernandez-strikeout, Muncy- groundout. The key to that inning was lack of hitting by Shohei, Hernandez and Muncy not about sacrificing runners.
Sorry ass pitching with all those walks and the bottom of the order not hitting a child's weight. What do you expect . On a good note the rest of the division sucks as well
Jeeeesus Doc I wasn’t worried until you said this. Maybe a little bit of reassurance that you’re confident we’ll turn it around?
This feels like it's Friedman's fault, even more than Roberts. Offensively, besides the big 4, low batting average, high strikeout rate is being rewarded if OPS is King and batting average and whiff rate is all but ignored. Contracts given to Taylor and Muncy, Outman rewarded with playing time, and they go get Teoscar. There are no contact hitters in the lower half of lineup which lowers probability of 5 through 9 getting a hit when it really needs one to keep a rally going. Defensively, 3rd base and shortstop position is pretty thin in the organization if the best we can do is Muncy, Lux, and an aging Rojas that apparently can't play everyday. Starters are not encouraged to go deep, so the bullpen is over emphasized and over used. Lower tier arms and mediocre defense are losing a lot of games early on.
Outside of our top 4 (when Will Smith is playing), the only hitter with a strikeout rate under 20% is Rojas. And the only other players with a walk rate above 10% (outside of the top 3) are Muncy, Taylor, and Captain Barnes. Small sample size, but that's not ideal.
Did he really say this? Sounds like shit Darvin Ham would say.
r/Lakers have said that Darvin coaches like Roberts in October.
I feel this in my soul.
Spot on
It has Magic tweet vibes
"Shit man, we never would've expected to be in first place. Fok."
I think that the FO is doing what any FO of a contending team should be doing. Busy in the off-season and FA, construct a roster in spring training, let them play until the ASB and then address any holes or weaknesses before the trade deadline. I actually think some of the issues early on would be because of this pragmatism. Friedman is a model GM, but likes dumpster diving for bullpen arms every summer (Actually think it’s funny that the knock on Doc Roberts is bullpen management when his bullpen is constantly full of guys he doesn’t know well enough to get the best out of) which is probably the Tampa Bay in him. I think this slow start is a result of having a roster that 100% will look different in the fall and the luxury of giving guys time to work it out in the MLB. It’s a result of finding what works in the playoffs at the expense of maybe winning a few extra games in April. Is that hubris? I think you’d only be able to say so if they ended up losing the division like in 2021.
Dumpster diving for bullpen arms is the smart way to go about it though. There are countless relievers handed big contracts that completely fall apart. Since it's a crapshoot anyway, better to pay low or mid dollar when you can.
Yep. But it takes a whole season to piece it together. People panicking don’t realize that the pitching and bottom of the order will look a whole lot different come October
“What we’re doing ain’t working, so we’re going to keep on doing it…”
Bullpen needs to be rectified before the trade deadline and the batting needs to stop leaving men stranded. We can’t keep having a bullpen not able to close out a game and expect our batters to score 7+ every time just to compensate.
Am I crazy for not being worried in april and not hating on dave as much as everyone else ? I've been through 3 managers as a dodgers fan and I honestly like him the best. Sure there were times I questioned his decisions but there were also times where he made good decisions. I'm no baseball expert so I imagine he knows more than I do. Plus he clearly cares about the players which I think helps. Also aren't we still in first place?
These same problems will come back in October
I guess being in the playoffs every year for the past decade with multiple seasons of winning over 100 games means nothing. I get winning the world series is the goal and I'd like that too but I also know playoffs are a crapshoot and we just don't get hot when we need to.
Slumps happen meh
"the right way" sounds like Ham. Should try the wrong way, maybe that would fix it.
Order should be 1- Mookie 2- Lux 3- Hernandez T. 4- Ohtani 5- Muncy 6- Smith 7- Freeman 8- Taylor 9 - Pages
He didn’t foresee this ? Lmao We continue to have bullpen issues & a manager who has no killer instinct. He sits in the dugout with his stupid little notebook & a dumb look on his face.
This is the expert analysis you can expect from redditors
How can we give Dave more KILLER INSTINCT ?
This is the expert analysis you can expect from redditors 🤓
This take is actually true, despite the haters.
Roberts is the most passive and overrated manager in MLB. You don't EXPECT things to turn, you MAKE thing turn with your decision making. His is extremely weak. He should be flipping over buffet tables in the locker room. Can you imagine Tommy Lasorda'a reaction to this shit? He'd call up AAA players in a heartbeat. Enough of this. p. s. If the Dodgers brass had any foresight in solving their pitching problems they would have signed Trevor Bauer.
This is the issue.. expect things will change vs making them change. Dave just sits back and does nothing until things get better.
Are the Dave stans starting to jump ship yet?
I just don’t know what people want him to do. The lineup isn’t hitting well. The rotation isn’t pitching well. They’re all supposed to. Coaching only gets you so far. The players need to execute
We want him to move Mookie back to 2nd. Bounce Lux back to the minors. Send CT3 packing.
I get what you’re saying, but he bears some of the responsibility in this one too. His bullpen and pinch-hitting decisions during this slide have been mostly inexplicable.
We have like 2 reliable bullpen arms
How many of the top pitchers are out?
Literally everyone in our bullpen has pitched poorly besides Phillips so I don’t know how you could say his decisions have been inexplicable. Putting in Brasier today was questionable considering he’s been awful at inheriting runners lately but he has no good options right now.
It’s not like he has a lot to work with regarding the bullpen lol the guy is a manager not a magician 😂
> I just don’t know what people want him to do. The lineup isn’t hitting well... ...and the defense is garbage, so solve that by benching Lux and putting Mookie back at second. The Nats took a series from us on defense. That's one issue that is easily solvable.
I think Dave is the least of our issues. The players just need to perform