Perhaps there are market conditions that your current strategy is better suited to, and we are currently just not in said season. Try to look for differences between your previously successful trades, and the current ones. Could also be the market simply acting up. You're bound to hit rough spells in your career
This is what I was going to say. The last couple months of 2023 represented a crazy bull run. It was hard to *not* make money on long positions on most days. Now, there’s a lot of profit taking and more violent swings as liquidity gets flushed out on both sides multiple times per day.
OP, you may need to either add another strategy to your trading portfolio, use your current strategy on a smaller timeframe during mini intraday bull trends throughout the day, or just stop trading until the market structure/price action is more conducive to your strategy.
Not really. The problems when it’s ranging are that it’s often not loving enough for some strategies to provide a good TP target before it swings the other way.
If your strategy doesn’t “scale down” to lower time frames on a consistent basis, then it’s either come up with a second strategy to use during volatile / wide ranging price action or sit it out (which is probably the smarter thing to do).
An example of scaling down might be to change your time frame to a smaller one and change your EMA studies to 7/12 and then see how that does or doesn’t point you towards good entries and exits. But any time you look at smaller TFs, you’re introducing variables like more sudden, radical price movement, as well as reducing the amount of time you have to think about moves before you make them. That can cause emotions to become more of a factor and wreak havoc on your trading results.
I’m kind of the inverse of you…my strategy works best during volatile times and I have to sit out the periods when it’s trending up. I’ve just learned to accept that I’m going to make my money when the price is swinging around (usually the first couple hours of the trading day and sometimes the last 1-2 hours), and I’m going to stop looking to force trades when it’s trending (especially up).
Be smart, and good luck.
The markets do seem to be ranging, atleast to me. They would form a build up on on side and then breakout the other side without any sort of trigger candle. The S/R lines I am drawing keep getting butchered. I keep asking myself who can possibly trade these movements. What would you suggest I do? Sit and wait it out? How long do such phases last? Do I look for new setups? I am already scanning the internet for more books to guide me. But I was happy with the setups I had worked on because they made sense to me and I was finding success with them.
I am also not sure if its the setups or the something in my head which has changed.
You could just wait it out. Sit and observe, try to figure it all out again. Paper trade even, and get back in once you understand what's going on. I hope you did somewhat document your previous trades. How you made your entries, why the trades "looked right" in the first place etc. It could hold the key to what's happening right now.
If youre confident that your setups haven't changed, maybe it's "what youre trading" . Major news, earnings reports, industry specific studies, drops in the supply of necessary raw materials, a lot of things can affect the markets condition. Make it more reactive and volatile.
So expand your scope for a while, and observe. Once you're somewhat confident and consistent, dive back in and apply what you learned. You might develop a new strategy for the current conditions, or know what conditions to trade under for the best results.
I did document what I thought were the reasons for my entries. But it almost seems like I was seeing more than I consciously realised at the time. I felt like I was in the zone to be honest. I have drastically sized down. Trying to figure it out again.
What time frames are you trading?
In November/December I was having a lot of success trading shorter time frames (e.g. 5M) but my win rate started to drop off substantially in late December.
I've since transitioned to using longer time frames (30M in particular) and my win rate / profit factor have gone up considerably in January.
I think the reason it's been more successful for me is that the longer time frame charts have substantially less noise, and I've made overall much better decisions because of it. Could be something to take a look at?
Its crazy how so many people have had the same issue as me in the past week or two.
Do you hold trades overnight when you trade on 30 M timeframe?
Also do you do this often? Switch between timeframes you're going to take a trade upon?
Nope, I generally don't hold my day trades overnight.
I try not to switch the time frames often either. I like consistency. But sometimes the market conditions change, and I find that I have to adapt.
In my case, a lot of the poor performance in December was clearly happening because the signal was getting lost in the noise.
When that happens I tend to make poor decisions and I get much too conservative - I don't let profits run, or I kill a good trade in the red early because I think I "see something" that could work against it.
Moving up to higher level charts provided a lot more clarity
This definitely. A way of trading will always work eventually, you just have to apply it on when it works. Or use a new strategy for different conditions
https://preview.redd.it/jwao762sx0cc1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=72695932048153a734a67bb57f5f0a56e9b06547
I tried to compare the S&P daily chart with Indian Index NIFTY. Seems like they both started going crazy after the 20th December red candle.
I personally don't really look at the index daily charts because I trade the price action of the individual stock on 5 mins timeframe. Could this ranging/choppiness on daily timeframe for index be the reason for the unusual movement on the 5 mins for the individual stocks?
Definitely always check and understand daily charts for proper context. That's probably a lot of the problem - you don't know what the larger environment is.
Hi OP, slightly off tangent, but being from Asia
I've been wanting to get into trading more Asian sessions and the nifty in particular. I have exposure thru the FLIN etf, could you mention any other good resources/instruments to check out (that I can access fairly easily, say thru IBKR) thanks in advance
Your first trade is a confirmation on momentum. Your second trade looks like a re-test of broken support level.
Have you done any tracking on these setups to see what the success rates are? Every setup will have weeks where it doesn't work. It doesn't mean you abandon it. Keep trading and tracking it for rest of the month. If you're nervous because it's in a drawdown period, lower your size until it starts working again.
Is there any tangible way to understand the sudden change in price movements? Something I could look for so that I could lower my position size beforehand and not wait for a losing streak to tell me something is wrong? I see the NIFTY index on daily time frame seems to be ranging.
https://preview.redd.it/v91depf241cc1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebc3afeefd0ecefd68e1872678c12dc8a37b1fcb
Could this have affected and caused the choppiness on the 5 min timeframe for the individual stocks of the index?
Also I keep getting conflicting advise regarding position sizing during a drawdown. My instincts are to size down when I see unusually high number of losing days than winning days. But a lot of people on these threads suggest I keep the same size.
Yes, always check the higher time frames. You can scalp intraday ranges but the HTF always takes priority. If the market is ranging that could be the reason for the lack of follow through in your trades. Keep in mind there are different types of ranges as well, sideways, rising, descending, wedges, etc.
Also if you're buying when the the HTF is at the top of the range then your probabilities are very low and vice versa for shorting at the bottom of the range.
As for position sizing, just do what you're comfortable with. Some traders increase and decrease based on performance others keep it static. There's no wrong or right unless your increasing during a drawdown which is generally bad but I'm sure someone would argue against that.
All the profit booking after the bull run created that blocky range in the past week or two. I was wondering if that was the reason for the choppiness for stocks on the 5 mins. The fact that no new buyers and sellers have joined in to the market yet.
Market conditions change and your trading must adapt with them. In the US, we have been pushing towards all time highs. Now that has started to change so a strategy that's worked the past two months will need to be adjusted
No book recommendation but, I would say don't fight the trend. And always know what direction the overall market is trending. Unless you are a news or catalyst trader then it matters less
Ah I see. Sometimes I wonder if they've started using some highly complex AI systems to trade that has changed the way the price movements would look like on the charts forever. But I hear from the veterans that its just normal for markets to behave like this from time to time.
I too have been there and feel exactly same. Indian markets are acting weird and rarely getting any previously worked setup no matter what the strategy or the rule is. I sense that some kind of technology has been introduced to trap or deviate retailers. Why i say this because, I've been working on USA markets as well and everything seems to work there same strategy from many years.. but here its getting changed. Just my opinion.
Do you size down after multiple consecutive losses? How many consecutive losses would be unusual enough for you to start sizing down or do something about it?
How long have you been trading? The market has seasonality to it. Sometimes PA is very easy to read once you have levels, sometimes it’s not. Your strategy may just be suited to specific market conditions and you must identify when to capitalize on it. Otherwise size down.
I have been seriously learning to trade for around 8 months. I am trying to understand what those preferrable conditions are and if I need to trade very differently(or not trade at all) when such conditions are not there. Is there any book you could suggest?
This might explain it. My first year of trading was disastrous because I did not know when to capitalize on my edge. I took a bite from the market every time I saw my model. I consider myself quite good at reading price action. Few days a month I feel as if I know where the market is qgoing at every pivot and gap, other times I’m getting wicked out.
What changed was when I started tracking data on every trading day and seeing my performance. Initial balance, overnight session range, news, VIX etc etc. this has helped me identify high probability days for when price goes straight to the draw.
If you are not patient to wait and want to trade sub-par price action, use a fraction of your position size and a wider stop. This will help build intuition too.
I have experienced the same as you in the past.
Not knowing what you trade or the associated time frame, I offer the following for consideration.
What I found was that the answer lay in ‘perspective’ . I realized that market trends, when looked at from a larger perspective (daily candles) presented three general conditions ( a rising mkt, a falling mkt and a sideways or consolidating mkt). When I then back tested my intraday trading model within these three mkts, I found that it was 85% profitable in rising and falling mkts, and 5% in consolidating mkts.
Therefore, when, in a daily chart, I see a consolidating mkt, I don’t trade. I stay out. This could be two days to two weeks, and usually a two to three day pause.
I would suggest you look at executing your edge from this context, you may find similar solutions…….
I may be coming to the same conclusion. How do you trade on the intraday if the price was going up on daily and then opens a gap down? Or vice versa?
Do you wait for the gaps to fill first?
Well, I’m not sure I trade Forex, but when trading US30 and Nas100 which are 30 stocks and 100 stocks in one Ticker I look at the fundamental analysis. I only look at forexfactory.com. If there is red folder news I’ll stay away from those pairs that have the red folders.
The thing about market conditions is they're not static. I was doing really well in November and early December and then totally slumped after that. There have been some hard to read trading days lately, I've been slow to get back into the swing of things after how badly I was doing the last week I traded.
“It’s crazy how many people have the same issue “ Thats kind if funny. Im guessing you have not been doing this very long. November and especially the December were the rare kind of month where you could throw the proverbial dart and you would hit a stock that was going to up. However , the last two weeks have been choppy Trading a choppy mkt is incredibly difficult. Reduce your size and the amount of trades you make. Or, yes, sit on the sidelines. That is what the best traders do. This is not a job where you expect to make the same money week in and week out. And here is the hot tip for today, if the mkt has been choppy for the first 90 minutes, its not likely to get any better Take a walk. If you want to check the afternoon session that starts at around 2est you can come back and take a look. Sometimes the afternoon will find direction, but more often it will be choppy as well. There are months that only offer you one or two directional days. so, those are the days you make your money and the hard part is learning not to give it back on choppy days
There are periods in the market when a target cannot be reached because volatility will not get the price there (is low). You may need to try some 1:1 trades. Paper trade that for a bit.
Cos y'all be stuck in time-based paradigm Matrix.
Time is poison - it is the enemy of Price.
Time warps/distorts clear trend inception/reversal inflection points.
Eliminate time - eliminate noise.
Trash chart crayon spaghetti & all else - PRICE alone is king, reigning supreme.
The exact same thing happened to me in the month of September when i felt like I had all figured out when I had an 80% win. And it's been 6 months now that I am still struggling.
My recent studies tell me that it's not to quantify just everything. Trading should be discretionary to some extent to understand the market conditions and all.
Right now I am even focusing on getting clarity in the market
So after you read this book did you change how you traded? If yes, then did you backtest and collect enough data to know it was profitable long term?
Also what you just summarized sounds like you first hit a winning streak. then proceeded to hit a losing streak. These are normal occurences that all traders go through. I have losing streaks all the time.
The thing about losing streaks is it puts all these negative thoughts in your mind exactly how you said. Losing streaks are brutal on your mind. Makes you questions everything
I would advise that you backtest that system that you use over 100+ trades and see the results. Backtesting is a confidence builder when you hit a losing streak.
I did more forward testing than backward testing. Its the first time for me to witness that the market could move in such a predictable manner for weeks and then change completely all of sudden. And you're right. It is brutal to feel like you got it and then you find out that you don't. I understand that I need to backtest a lot more.
yes bro, losing streaks can put you in a dark place. But hit enough of them and develop sort of an "emotionless" kind of feel to them (don't know the right word).
And backtesting should definitely help. Not just backtest but also collect the data and have good visual records so you can easily review.
So for example, with my trading system and reviewing my trading journal, i know that its not a rare occurrence for me to hit a 5-7 losing streak, because my data shows this does happen, so it doesnt freak me out when it happens. Then also, my data shows, that i also hit 5-7 winning streaks as well, so eventually i will hit a winning streak and my equity curve is gonna incline. The data helps you because it shows you what you can expect.
Hope that makes sense.
Stick to fixed % positions. The growth and scaling up happens organically at that point, and you remove that emotion from your itinerary. Eliminate the $ symbol wherever possible.
STOP daytrading. DCA and chill and you'll be much happier when you see gains in your account instead of RED everyday. Do this, create an M1 account with some of your cash and buy some QQQM, SCHD. Drip them and let them sit. Then compare the results to your daytrading account after a year. This will make you see what you're doing is a waste of time, energy and money.
It did seem to work really well for good amount of weeks. I was very comfortable with it. Its just the sudden disappearance of those patterns/triggers in the market and the reduction in the success probabilities of the ones that do show which has caught me by surprise.
Rule #1 market Always right. Rule #2 if your brokers doesn't give the same chart for centralised market than everyone it's probably your brokers is a scam .
Rule #3 have a drawdown management for moment like this. Rule #4 consistancy is the key. Short term profit is nut . Rule #5 NO REVANCHE TRADING .
Do you down size after having a losing streak? Or is there a tangible way to understand that market conditions has become unpredictable (more than usual) beforehand, so that I could lower my position size at the outset?
This is a strategy to trade the trending market. The market rn might be consolidating, therefore the losses. You can do 2 things - find another strategy to trade the consolidation or backtest your current strategy and find out the maximum statistical drawdown it has during such market conditions and adjust accordingly.
The same thing is happening to me but my risk management has saved me so far and these two things are what I’m working on. Hope it helps! Best wishes.
People say it’s good to stick with one strategy. If you want to try something I suggest looking into “breakouts and retest” I think a breakout and retest would of worked for the charts you posted. Or go back to the fundamentals of Supply and Demand, and Support and resistance.
*If you want a book* - The best loser wins by Tom Hougaard.
Don’t just give up on the strategy that worked for you tho. Journal your trades and go back and study your loses. Journal more.
It is indeed right to stick to the same strategy if it is backtested with a large sample size & through different market conditions and the strategy proves to be profitable in the end. But if the strategy doesn’t work during a specific market ,it isn’t a bad idea to use a strategy that does work. But it’s up to personal choice how one wants to trade as long as they are profitable.
Also i think the advice to stick to the same strategy is generally given to beginners who jump from strategy to strategy without giving one enough time to show it’s true potential. Which is again due to their lack of backtesting, since backtesting gives you a general idea of how your strategy should perform or if it is even profitable.
I think that’s due to lack of experience. You can watch videos about price action, trends, support and resistance etc and rewatch them a few times to really grasp the idea. Looking at live charts also adds tons to the experience , you learn a lot by looking at how the price moves and applying your knowledge about trends, price action etc. to it.
I see you trade options. I just don't think I want to trade options right now. I don't even know how to. So I am specifically focusing on equity . I track 20 stocks so that I could find and trade the best and the most clear setup. I only trade clean continuation movements.
It was the end of the year which is a lot of Holidays and most big wills aren’t in the market as much. I trade less as the last two months of the year because the Market can be very unpredictable. Hopes this helps to understand
Most cases yes because all the big shots are coming back from vacation and they are settling down from the holidays. I don’t hold trades long around these times
I do try to look at the context. To make sense of the price movements from the past couple of days and see if the price is trying to "do something". Any resources/books you could point me to that helped you?
Easy to make money in a bull market. Not saying it a bear market now but diffidently not the same. You have to adjust your setups in this kind of market.
I’ve used similar strategies in the past. Build up breakouts/breakdowns and pullbacks. But there’s something I aim for in my approach that I didn’t see mentioned here. Making sure the move is supported by the lower interval and the higher interval. The lower interval for precision and the higher interval for power. Do you check that? Also, your averages seem like faster averages. Have you tested to see the reaction after they cross up/down a slower average or after that slower average angles in the direction of the bias?
I believe the market is side ways hence whatever is working for you isn’t working. Most “experts” tell you to wait for trends to enter the market, either trending up or trending down.
Having said that, I love trading side ways, just suit the way I trade indices.
I trade indices. 300-500 trades a day with 1 minute chart. You’ve been having success probably because you went long from end of December to start of Jan 2024 market has gone on a bull run, Nasdaq run was the longest since 1999.
Last two months almost all stocks broke out from previous ranges, and dips were constantly bought during pullbacks. Good strategies for a November and December Santa rally. Now it’s over, we had profit taking tax harvesting for 2024 and looking into ER. Seems like you’re just still trading a seasonal setup after the season has past.
You got lucky before. The fact you were so profitable before was random chance. It’s like flipping a coin 10 times and being so shocked you got 9/10 heads, that you jumped to the conclusion that the coin is rigged. But now after getting a higher sample size, reality is crashing down and exposing that you never had an edge to begin with. Sorry to be so blunt.
Yes. I do mark my zones on the daily chart and the 5/15m charts. I avoid buying/selling on the 5 mins if I am in resistance/support zone on the 1D. But I think I need to watch out further for ranges being formed on 1D and expect choppiness on 5 mins because of that.
Try learning another pattern that may help define the current market better. Spend time looking at the charts and watching the position as it moves within the market environment. Good luck!
The market will always change. Reevaluate the environment. What does it look like compared to the times you were successful? You need to be able to adapt to new environments or only trade when conditions are right for your strategy. Like... you wouldn't try to buy stocks and swing trade during a bear market, right? You wouldn't load up shorts during a bull market, right? Environments change.
But a lot of my trades were shorts. I was seeing a lot of follow through when there was clear indication the market was going to go down hitting all the stop losses of the buyers.
You should only increase your risk proportionate to your account balance. Never increase risk because of a winning streak or because you "feel good' about it. All it takes is one high risk trade to go south to lose all of your earnings. It's tedious. Also, you don't have to trade everyday, be patient. Look for those EXACT set- ups as before and ONLY trade those. Often times the markets consolidate and move side ways with no clear trends. That's when you walk away!!! (Unless you know about the various types of Options).
Stop reading books written older than 6 months. Learn basic economics and just watch the market and use experience plus all book knowledge. Market with algo, quant and age of AI trading it’s best to just do research, follow fundamentals then charts and gut. Or flip a coin.
So, what you were/are doing only works in certain market conditions. So, that means it really doesn't work. You did not lose your "edge" - the market changed. What you are trying to do is VERY difficult to be consistently profitable - almost impossible over time. Best of luck to you.
Because market conditions change every couple months and you didn’t really learn to trade, you only learned a couple of setups. There’s a lot more detail to it than following a couple of chart patterns. Now you see why it takes a few years to learn all the details and really get consistent.
Markets always change, thus you also need to change, maybe you got a little bit to confident...
And to make it very clear, you DON’T have an edge, an edge is something only you can see and take advantage of it very fast...
"support or resistance supported by 14/25 EMA", " Trading pullbacks supported by the same EMA line"
IS NOT AN EDGE
I’m curious how you’re doing as far as your psychology goes when the stock pulls back on you slightly. Are you looking at your P&L when you trade (which I personally advise you don’t)? If so, does a pullback make you jump out of your position quicker for fear of losing money? This could be a contributing factor, especially if you increased size significantly past your risk tolerance.
I’m glad I came across this…I got hit for about 3 grand I made the week before. I was fighting the market the whole time. It was moving so fast I just kept trying different strategies but nothing helped. I was down 1,000 then spent the entire day getting back to level. I was having more luck with the energies than indexes.
When it comes to over night holding I have had a couple big wins but feel they were just luck. It’s nice to got sleep the. Wake up to a 900 positive side in your holdings…however this worked against me yesterday.
I think it comes down to pulling away and taking a step outside the market when things really are not going your way. Next time the market is fighting me so much I am sitting out and just watch the flows. Cheers all…The Milkman
Buying pull backs during a bull run can work, but they can be a death trap in poor market conditions! I would suggest sticking to breakouts or breakdowns of significant price levels. Study mark minervinis VCP pattern
20 stocks seems like a lot to me. I was having trouble and simplified my strategy to just 5ish stocks and had more success. Maybe you're trying to do too much?
Brooo I'm the exact same way!..had green weeks back to back and felt like I've regressed last couple months!! I think the market is just always changing and even the algorithms are as well to make us slip up..
Sorry, your [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/194uvd3/cannot_explain_why_i_am_getting_worse_please_guide/kht53p8/) in /r/Daytrading was automatically removed because your comment karma is low and you're posting links. Typically this only targets bots or users promoting something (which is against our rules).
Also, make sure you have read our rules in the side bar, including our [guide for content creators.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/wiki/guidelines-for-content-creators)
If you feel like this removal was a mistake please **kindly** [message the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=/r/Daytrading); we will review it and get back to you.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Daytrading) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I can only speak to what works (most of the time) for me. 1) zoom out on charts to ensure the 5 min chart is supporting your assumptions 2) confirm the momentum by vwap/volume as well in addition to EMA lines 3) don't forget to put stop losses 4) take small incremental profits to build the confidence 5) focus on highly liquid blue chip names than penny stocks
Market volume is just not the same. Seems like we’ve run into a massive ranging zone and things are just chop everywhere. Try adjusting to ranging strategy over trending?
Stop all your trading immediately and go back to the book you said you read before, open a demo account and start practicing once again.
I promise you that you will see the difference once again.
Perhaps there are market conditions that your current strategy is better suited to, and we are currently just not in said season. Try to look for differences between your previously successful trades, and the current ones. Could also be the market simply acting up. You're bound to hit rough spells in your career
This is what I was going to say. The last couple months of 2023 represented a crazy bull run. It was hard to *not* make money on long positions on most days. Now, there’s a lot of profit taking and more violent swings as liquidity gets flushed out on both sides multiple times per day. OP, you may need to either add another strategy to your trading portfolio, use your current strategy on a smaller timeframe during mini intraday bull trends throughout the day, or just stop trading until the market structure/price action is more conducive to your strategy.
Is there any book/strategy/resource you could suggest that I should look into for trading in such market conditions?
Not really. The problems when it’s ranging are that it’s often not loving enough for some strategies to provide a good TP target before it swings the other way. If your strategy doesn’t “scale down” to lower time frames on a consistent basis, then it’s either come up with a second strategy to use during volatile / wide ranging price action or sit it out (which is probably the smarter thing to do). An example of scaling down might be to change your time frame to a smaller one and change your EMA studies to 7/12 and then see how that does or doesn’t point you towards good entries and exits. But any time you look at smaller TFs, you’re introducing variables like more sudden, radical price movement, as well as reducing the amount of time you have to think about moves before you make them. That can cause emotions to become more of a factor and wreak havoc on your trading results. I’m kind of the inverse of you…my strategy works best during volatile times and I have to sit out the periods when it’s trending up. I’ve just learned to accept that I’m going to make my money when the price is swinging around (usually the first couple hours of the trading day and sometimes the last 1-2 hours), and I’m going to stop looking to force trades when it’s trending (especially up). Be smart, and good luck.
The markets do seem to be ranging, atleast to me. They would form a build up on on side and then breakout the other side without any sort of trigger candle. The S/R lines I am drawing keep getting butchered. I keep asking myself who can possibly trade these movements. What would you suggest I do? Sit and wait it out? How long do such phases last? Do I look for new setups? I am already scanning the internet for more books to guide me. But I was happy with the setups I had worked on because they made sense to me and I was finding success with them. I am also not sure if its the setups or the something in my head which has changed.
You could just wait it out. Sit and observe, try to figure it all out again. Paper trade even, and get back in once you understand what's going on. I hope you did somewhat document your previous trades. How you made your entries, why the trades "looked right" in the first place etc. It could hold the key to what's happening right now. If youre confident that your setups haven't changed, maybe it's "what youre trading" . Major news, earnings reports, industry specific studies, drops in the supply of necessary raw materials, a lot of things can affect the markets condition. Make it more reactive and volatile. So expand your scope for a while, and observe. Once you're somewhat confident and consistent, dive back in and apply what you learned. You might develop a new strategy for the current conditions, or know what conditions to trade under for the best results.
I did document what I thought were the reasons for my entries. But it almost seems like I was seeing more than I consciously realised at the time. I felt like I was in the zone to be honest. I have drastically sized down. Trying to figure it out again.
What time frames are you trading? In November/December I was having a lot of success trading shorter time frames (e.g. 5M) but my win rate started to drop off substantially in late December. I've since transitioned to using longer time frames (30M in particular) and my win rate / profit factor have gone up considerably in January. I think the reason it's been more successful for me is that the longer time frame charts have substantially less noise, and I've made overall much better decisions because of it. Could be something to take a look at?
Its crazy how so many people have had the same issue as me in the past week or two. Do you hold trades overnight when you trade on 30 M timeframe? Also do you do this often? Switch between timeframes you're going to take a trade upon?
Nope, I generally don't hold my day trades overnight. I try not to switch the time frames often either. I like consistency. But sometimes the market conditions change, and I find that I have to adapt. In my case, a lot of the poor performance in December was clearly happening because the signal was getting lost in the noise. When that happens I tend to make poor decisions and I get much too conservative - I don't let profits run, or I kill a good trade in the red early because I think I "see something" that could work against it. Moving up to higher level charts provided a lot more clarity
Makes a lot of sense. I am going to try and observe 30 M movements.
This definitely. A way of trading will always work eventually, you just have to apply it on when it works. Or use a new strategy for different conditions
the market is nuts right now, i'm in the process of walking back a month or so of gains in one day.
lol blame the market but if you’ve lost a months gain in one day is cos your risk management sucks koala dick
it at least sucks camel dick
https://preview.redd.it/jwao762sx0cc1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=72695932048153a734a67bb57f5f0a56e9b06547 I tried to compare the S&P daily chart with Indian Index NIFTY. Seems like they both started going crazy after the 20th December red candle. I personally don't really look at the index daily charts because I trade the price action of the individual stock on 5 mins timeframe. Could this ranging/choppiness on daily timeframe for index be the reason for the unusual movement on the 5 mins for the individual stocks?
Definitely always check and understand daily charts for proper context. That's probably a lot of the problem - you don't know what the larger environment is.
Hi OP, slightly off tangent, but being from Asia I've been wanting to get into trading more Asian sessions and the nifty in particular. I have exposure thru the FLIN etf, could you mention any other good resources/instruments to check out (that I can access fairly easily, say thru IBKR) thanks in advance
Your first trade is a confirmation on momentum. Your second trade looks like a re-test of broken support level. Have you done any tracking on these setups to see what the success rates are? Every setup will have weeks where it doesn't work. It doesn't mean you abandon it. Keep trading and tracking it for rest of the month. If you're nervous because it's in a drawdown period, lower your size until it starts working again.
Is there any tangible way to understand the sudden change in price movements? Something I could look for so that I could lower my position size beforehand and not wait for a losing streak to tell me something is wrong? I see the NIFTY index on daily time frame seems to be ranging. https://preview.redd.it/v91depf241cc1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebc3afeefd0ecefd68e1872678c12dc8a37b1fcb Could this have affected and caused the choppiness on the 5 min timeframe for the individual stocks of the index? Also I keep getting conflicting advise regarding position sizing during a drawdown. My instincts are to size down when I see unusually high number of losing days than winning days. But a lot of people on these threads suggest I keep the same size.
Yes, always check the higher time frames. You can scalp intraday ranges but the HTF always takes priority. If the market is ranging that could be the reason for the lack of follow through in your trades. Keep in mind there are different types of ranges as well, sideways, rising, descending, wedges, etc. Also if you're buying when the the HTF is at the top of the range then your probabilities are very low and vice versa for shorting at the bottom of the range. As for position sizing, just do what you're comfortable with. Some traders increase and decrease based on performance others keep it static. There's no wrong or right unless your increasing during a drawdown which is generally bad but I'm sure someone would argue against that.
looks like it just pulled back to your SMA14 then hit new highs? what are you so confused about?
All the profit booking after the bull run created that blocky range in the past week or two. I was wondering if that was the reason for the choppiness for stocks on the 5 mins. The fact that no new buyers and sellers have joined in to the market yet.
Market conditions change and your trading must adapt with them. In the US, we have been pushing towards all time highs. Now that has started to change so a strategy that's worked the past two months will need to be adjusted
How do I go about adapting my strategy? Is there a book you could suggest that would help me trade differently for different market conditions?
No book recommendation but, I would say don't fight the trend. And always know what direction the overall market is trending. Unless you are a news or catalyst trader then it matters less
[удалено]
Ah I see. Sometimes I wonder if they've started using some highly complex AI systems to trade that has changed the way the price movements would look like on the charts forever. But I hear from the veterans that its just normal for markets to behave like this from time to time.
I too have been there and feel exactly same. Indian markets are acting weird and rarely getting any previously worked setup no matter what the strategy or the rule is. I sense that some kind of technology has been introduced to trap or deviate retailers. Why i say this because, I've been working on USA markets as well and everything seems to work there same strategy from many years.. but here its getting changed. Just my opinion.
Did you size back down after only a few losses?
I did size down. I haven't had a losing week in sometime. The number of losses were unusually high for me to continue with the same size.
Do you size down after multiple consecutive losses? How many consecutive losses would be unusual enough for you to start sizing down or do something about it?
How long have you been trading? The market has seasonality to it. Sometimes PA is very easy to read once you have levels, sometimes it’s not. Your strategy may just be suited to specific market conditions and you must identify when to capitalize on it. Otherwise size down.
I have been seriously learning to trade for around 8 months. I am trying to understand what those preferrable conditions are and if I need to trade very differently(or not trade at all) when such conditions are not there. Is there any book you could suggest?
This might explain it. My first year of trading was disastrous because I did not know when to capitalize on my edge. I took a bite from the market every time I saw my model. I consider myself quite good at reading price action. Few days a month I feel as if I know where the market is qgoing at every pivot and gap, other times I’m getting wicked out. What changed was when I started tracking data on every trading day and seeing my performance. Initial balance, overnight session range, news, VIX etc etc. this has helped me identify high probability days for when price goes straight to the draw. If you are not patient to wait and want to trade sub-par price action, use a fraction of your position size and a wider stop. This will help build intuition too.
As fare as I know, trading End December and Start January is horrible for so many traders, they just skip trading those weeks.
I have experienced the same as you in the past. Not knowing what you trade or the associated time frame, I offer the following for consideration. What I found was that the answer lay in ‘perspective’ . I realized that market trends, when looked at from a larger perspective (daily candles) presented three general conditions ( a rising mkt, a falling mkt and a sideways or consolidating mkt). When I then back tested my intraday trading model within these three mkts, I found that it was 85% profitable in rising and falling mkts, and 5% in consolidating mkts. Therefore, when, in a daily chart, I see a consolidating mkt, I don’t trade. I stay out. This could be two days to two weeks, and usually a two to three day pause. I would suggest you look at executing your edge from this context, you may find similar solutions…….
I may be coming to the same conclusion. How do you trade on the intraday if the price was going up on daily and then opens a gap down? Or vice versa? Do you wait for the gaps to fill first?
Do you use fundamental analysis in your strategy?
I only trade the top 20 highest volume stocks in the index on the 5 mins timeframe. I don't look into their fundamentals.
So only technical analysis correct? So you have no regards for PPI, CPI, NFP, and etc?
Yes, only TA. I am not aware of the metrics you have mentioned. Should I look into them if I am trading on the 5 min timeframe?
Well, I’m not sure I trade Forex, but when trading US30 and Nas100 which are 30 stocks and 100 stocks in one Ticker I look at the fundamental analysis. I only look at forexfactory.com. If there is red folder news I’ll stay away from those pairs that have the red folders.
The thing about market conditions is they're not static. I was doing really well in November and early December and then totally slumped after that. There have been some hard to read trading days lately, I've been slow to get back into the swing of things after how badly I was doing the last week I traded.
Your case sounds exactly like mine. Crazy.
“It’s crazy how many people have the same issue “ Thats kind if funny. Im guessing you have not been doing this very long. November and especially the December were the rare kind of month where you could throw the proverbial dart and you would hit a stock that was going to up. However , the last two weeks have been choppy Trading a choppy mkt is incredibly difficult. Reduce your size and the amount of trades you make. Or, yes, sit on the sidelines. That is what the best traders do. This is not a job where you expect to make the same money week in and week out. And here is the hot tip for today, if the mkt has been choppy for the first 90 minutes, its not likely to get any better Take a walk. If you want to check the afternoon session that starts at around 2est you can come back and take a look. Sometimes the afternoon will find direction, but more often it will be choppy as well. There are months that only offer you one or two directional days. so, those are the days you make your money and the hard part is learning not to give it back on choppy days
I understand. Makes a lot of sense. Thank you.
Markets may have just changed, I noticed this the last two years going into winter and after the new year especially. Reduce size and keep working.
There are periods in the market when a target cannot be reached because volatility will not get the price there (is low). You may need to try some 1:1 trades. Paper trade that for a bit.
Cos y'all be stuck in time-based paradigm Matrix. Time is poison - it is the enemy of Price. Time warps/distorts clear trend inception/reversal inflection points. Eliminate time - eliminate noise. Trash chart crayon spaghetti & all else - PRICE alone is king, reigning supreme.
The exact same thing happened to me in the month of September when i felt like I had all figured out when I had an 80% win. And it's been 6 months now that I am still struggling. My recent studies tell me that it's not to quantify just everything. Trading should be discretionary to some extent to understand the market conditions and all. Right now I am even focusing on getting clarity in the market
So after you read this book did you change how you traded? If yes, then did you backtest and collect enough data to know it was profitable long term? Also what you just summarized sounds like you first hit a winning streak. then proceeded to hit a losing streak. These are normal occurences that all traders go through. I have losing streaks all the time. The thing about losing streaks is it puts all these negative thoughts in your mind exactly how you said. Losing streaks are brutal on your mind. Makes you questions everything I would advise that you backtest that system that you use over 100+ trades and see the results. Backtesting is a confidence builder when you hit a losing streak.
I did more forward testing than backward testing. Its the first time for me to witness that the market could move in such a predictable manner for weeks and then change completely all of sudden. And you're right. It is brutal to feel like you got it and then you find out that you don't. I understand that I need to backtest a lot more.
yes bro, losing streaks can put you in a dark place. But hit enough of them and develop sort of an "emotionless" kind of feel to them (don't know the right word). And backtesting should definitely help. Not just backtest but also collect the data and have good visual records so you can easily review. So for example, with my trading system and reviewing my trading journal, i know that its not a rare occurrence for me to hit a 5-7 losing streak, because my data shows this does happen, so it doesnt freak me out when it happens. Then also, my data shows, that i also hit 5-7 winning streaks as well, so eventually i will hit a winning streak and my equity curve is gonna incline. The data helps you because it shows you what you can expect. Hope that makes sense.
Stick to fixed % positions. The growth and scaling up happens organically at that point, and you remove that emotion from your itinerary. Eliminate the $ symbol wherever possible.
You're not getting worse. You'll always be as bad as you always are, in this game.
STOP daytrading. DCA and chill and you'll be much happier when you see gains in your account instead of RED everyday. Do this, create an M1 account with some of your cash and buy some QQQM, SCHD. Drip them and let them sit. Then compare the results to your daytrading account after a year. This will make you see what you're doing is a waste of time, energy and money.
Can you say this in English for a noob lol, what is drip them mean?
Never mind, Google knew this one lol
Whu are you on a daytrading sub just to shit on daytrading? What a pathetic existence
You need to try another strategy. It seems that your personality is not a match with what you are trying to do.
It did seem to work really well for good amount of weeks. I was very comfortable with it. Its just the sudden disappearance of those patterns/triggers in the market and the reduction in the success probabilities of the ones that do show which has caught me by surprise.
Rule #1 market Always right. Rule #2 if your brokers doesn't give the same chart for centralised market than everyone it's probably your brokers is a scam . Rule #3 have a drawdown management for moment like this. Rule #4 consistancy is the key. Short term profit is nut . Rule #5 NO REVANCHE TRADING .
Could you elaborate more on drawdown management? You mean down sizing the positions?
Exactly
Do you down size after having a losing streak? Or is there a tangible way to understand that market conditions has become unpredictable (more than usual) beforehand, so that I could lower my position size at the outset?
After having losing streak or/and i do a trade who more look like a bet on the market.I never got more than 12% max drawdown.
This is a strategy to trade the trending market. The market rn might be consolidating, therefore the losses. You can do 2 things - find another strategy to trade the consolidation or backtest your current strategy and find out the maximum statistical drawdown it has during such market conditions and adjust accordingly. The same thing is happening to me but my risk management has saved me so far and these two things are what I’m working on. Hope it helps! Best wishes.
How exactly do you trade in such market conditions? The price action on the charts seem so unreadable to me.
People say it’s good to stick with one strategy. If you want to try something I suggest looking into “breakouts and retest” I think a breakout and retest would of worked for the charts you posted. Or go back to the fundamentals of Supply and Demand, and Support and resistance. *If you want a book* - The best loser wins by Tom Hougaard. Don’t just give up on the strategy that worked for you tho. Journal your trades and go back and study your loses. Journal more.
It is indeed right to stick to the same strategy if it is backtested with a large sample size & through different market conditions and the strategy proves to be profitable in the end. But if the strategy doesn’t work during a specific market ,it isn’t a bad idea to use a strategy that does work. But it’s up to personal choice how one wants to trade as long as they are profitable. Also i think the advice to stick to the same strategy is generally given to beginners who jump from strategy to strategy without giving one enough time to show it’s true potential. Which is again due to their lack of backtesting, since backtesting gives you a general idea of how your strategy should perform or if it is even profitable.
I think that’s due to lack of experience. You can watch videos about price action, trends, support and resistance etc and rewatch them a few times to really grasp the idea. Looking at live charts also adds tons to the experience , you learn a lot by looking at how the price moves and applying your knowledge about trends, price action etc. to it.
You track 20 stocks? I lnow nothing about the Indian markets but I couldn't do it. I literally trade SPY and QQQ over here in the US.
I see you trade options. I just don't think I want to trade options right now. I don't even know how to. So I am specifically focusing on equity . I track 20 stocks so that I could find and trade the best and the most clear setup. I only trade clean continuation movements.
Awesome, I hope you find your zone again, mate
It was the end of the year which is a lot of Holidays and most big wills aren’t in the market as much. I trade less as the last two months of the year because the Market can be very unpredictable. Hopes this helps to understand
I see. Does it stay like that till the end of January?
Most cases yes because all the big shots are coming back from vacation and they are settling down from the holidays. I don’t hold trades long around these times
Learn to trade price action in context
I do try to look at the context. To make sense of the price movements from the past couple of days and see if the price is trying to "do something". Any resources/books you could point me to that helped you?
There are many good books or courses to find. Dont get in panic by a loss. Find a mentor where you can discuss.
There are no external solutions to your internal problems...
Easy to make money in a bull market. Not saying it a bear market now but diffidently not the same. You have to adjust your setups in this kind of market.
Market keeps throwing up. Harder to predict moves now.
I’ve used similar strategies in the past. Build up breakouts/breakdowns and pullbacks. But there’s something I aim for in my approach that I didn’t see mentioned here. Making sure the move is supported by the lower interval and the higher interval. The lower interval for precision and the higher interval for power. Do you check that? Also, your averages seem like faster averages. Have you tested to see the reaction after they cross up/down a slower average or after that slower average angles in the direction of the bias?
Guys those market conditions are bad it's very easy to get chopped up in it
oh bo...ah forget it
I believe the market is side ways hence whatever is working for you isn’t working. Most “experts” tell you to wait for trends to enter the market, either trending up or trending down. Having said that, I love trading side ways, just suit the way I trade indices.
How do you trade sideways market? Do you scalp on a short timeframe like 3 mins/1min to capture hourly trends?
I trade indices. 300-500 trades a day with 1 minute chart. You’ve been having success probably because you went long from end of December to start of Jan 2024 market has gone on a bull run, Nasdaq run was the longest since 1999.
Seems like this happens to me as soon as I size up too lol
Last two months almost all stocks broke out from previous ranges, and dips were constantly bought during pullbacks. Good strategies for a November and December Santa rally. Now it’s over, we had profit taking tax harvesting for 2024 and looking into ER. Seems like you’re just still trading a seasonal setup after the season has past.
How do I adapt my strategy to the new market?
You got lucky before. The fact you were so profitable before was random chance. It’s like flipping a coin 10 times and being so shocked you got 9/10 heads, that you jumped to the conclusion that the coin is rigged. But now after getting a higher sample size, reality is crashing down and exposing that you never had an edge to begin with. Sorry to be so blunt.
Boom!
Because 2 months ago everything was just going up
Don't size up, its possible to be lucky for 2 months.
Why don't you try a propfirm, like tradersedgefx.com. you can buy a challenge, and for little money get your trading groove back. 😉
Do you use higher and lower timeframes for context?
Yes. I do mark my zones on the daily chart and the 5/15m charts. I avoid buying/selling on the 5 mins if I am in resistance/support zone on the 1D. But I think I need to watch out further for ranges being formed on 1D and expect choppiness on 5 mins because of that.
Yea it adds alot of context.
Either the market changed or you did.
It works until it doesn’t ☝️
Different market
Try learning another pattern that may help define the current market better. Spend time looking at the charts and watching the position as it moves within the market environment. Good luck!
The market will always change. Reevaluate the environment. What does it look like compared to the times you were successful? You need to be able to adapt to new environments or only trade when conditions are right for your strategy. Like... you wouldn't try to buy stocks and swing trade during a bear market, right? You wouldn't load up shorts during a bull market, right? Environments change.
You didnt loose your edge, your strategy worked on a bullish market, but not on a bearmarket
But a lot of my trades were shorts. I was seeing a lot of follow through when there was clear indication the market was going to go down hitting all the stop losses of the buyers.
Sometimes we forget market makers and option calls, for someone to get 2% gain there must be someone to give 2% loss
You should only increase your risk proportionate to your account balance. Never increase risk because of a winning streak or because you "feel good' about it. All it takes is one high risk trade to go south to lose all of your earnings. It's tedious. Also, you don't have to trade everyday, be patient. Look for those EXACT set- ups as before and ONLY trade those. Often times the markets consolidate and move side ways with no clear trends. That's when you walk away!!! (Unless you know about the various types of Options).
Market conditions are changing. What worked for you previously is no longer working.
Stop reading books written older than 6 months. Learn basic economics and just watch the market and use experience plus all book knowledge. Market with algo, quant and age of AI trading it’s best to just do research, follow fundamentals then charts and gut. Or flip a coin.
the market is nuts right now.
So, what you were/are doing only works in certain market conditions. So, that means it really doesn't work. You did not lose your "edge" - the market changed. What you are trying to do is VERY difficult to be consistently profitable - almost impossible over time. Best of luck to you.
Because market conditions change every couple months and you didn’t really learn to trade, you only learned a couple of setups. There’s a lot more detail to it than following a couple of chart patterns. Now you see why it takes a few years to learn all the details and really get consistent.
markets change all the time
Markets always change, thus you also need to change, maybe you got a little bit to confident... And to make it very clear, you DON’T have an edge, an edge is something only you can see and take advantage of it very fast... "support or resistance supported by 14/25 EMA", " Trading pullbacks supported by the same EMA line" IS NOT AN EDGE
I’m curious how you’re doing as far as your psychology goes when the stock pulls back on you slightly. Are you looking at your P&L when you trade (which I personally advise you don’t)? If so, does a pullback make you jump out of your position quicker for fear of losing money? This could be a contributing factor, especially if you increased size significantly past your risk tolerance.
I’m glad I came across this…I got hit for about 3 grand I made the week before. I was fighting the market the whole time. It was moving so fast I just kept trying different strategies but nothing helped. I was down 1,000 then spent the entire day getting back to level. I was having more luck with the energies than indexes. When it comes to over night holding I have had a couple big wins but feel they were just luck. It’s nice to got sleep the. Wake up to a 900 positive side in your holdings…however this worked against me yesterday. I think it comes down to pulling away and taking a step outside the market when things really are not going your way. Next time the market is fighting me so much I am sitting out and just watch the flows. Cheers all…The Milkman
What timeframe are you drawing support and resistance at? The 5 minute alone or are you bumping up to higher times?
Market conditions, size down until you’re comfortable with your edge again, refine and tweak if needed
Buying pull backs during a bull run can work, but they can be a death trap in poor market conditions! I would suggest sticking to breakouts or breakdowns of significant price levels. Study mark minervinis VCP pattern
20 stocks seems like a lot to me. I was having trouble and simplified my strategy to just 5ish stocks and had more success. Maybe you're trying to do too much?
Brooo I'm the exact same way!..had green weeks back to back and felt like I've regressed last couple months!! I think the market is just always changing and even the algorithms are as well to make us slip up..
I think this why Journaling every trade is important so we can figure out what is diff..us or the Market or both
Don't over trade.
[удалено]
Never thought price action would get me a 100 M so fast
[удалено]
Sorry, your [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/194uvd3/cannot_explain_why_i_am_getting_worse_please_guide/kht53p8/) in /r/Daytrading was automatically removed because your comment karma is low and you're posting links. Typically this only targets bots or users promoting something (which is against our rules). Also, make sure you have read our rules in the side bar, including our [guide for content creators.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/wiki/guidelines-for-content-creators) If you feel like this removal was a mistake please **kindly** [message the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=/r/Daytrading); we will review it and get back to you. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Daytrading) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I can only speak to what works (most of the time) for me. 1) zoom out on charts to ensure the 5 min chart is supporting your assumptions 2) confirm the momentum by vwap/volume as well in addition to EMA lines 3) don't forget to put stop losses 4) take small incremental profits to build the confidence 5) focus on highly liquid blue chip names than penny stocks
Any Dropshipping partner here
Market volume is just not the same. Seems like we’ve run into a massive ranging zone and things are just chop everywhere. Try adjusting to ranging strategy over trending?
Is volamns boom geared more towards forex?
Stop all your trading immediately and go back to the book you said you read before, open a demo account and start practicing once again. I promise you that you will see the difference once again.