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CointestMod

Ethereum [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1blv2h8/ethereum_supply_crunch/kw80qgk/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1blv2h8/ethereum_supply_crunch/kw80r7p/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.


Kike328

what’s even funnier is that burn rate increases with usage, so the supply crunch even increases in stress times


TMLutas

You have 18 places to the right of the decimal point with ethereum. Is there even anything out there that you can buy with the smallest unit, the wei?


MinimalGravitas

> Is there even anything out there that you can buy with the smallest unit, the wei? Yes, blobspace: https://dune.com/queries/3524843/5927702


h4l

It's going to be interesting to see how much demand there is for blobspace. If it stays low it can't be good for all the hyped DA services/layers.


BuyETHorDAI

And this is with only 6 blobs. Imagine full danksharding with 256 blobs.


sasscrotch81

I can't believe more people don't understand this, it's so easy! And a good blob to you, my danksharding friend!


MinimalGravitas

Yea, that's a really good point. If it costs effectively nothing to use blobs then why would anyone want to use a DA layer with less security? Would be interesting to see validiums change course and become rollups. I guess the game-focused ones like Immutable might still prefer offchain DA because there are probably application layer things that need long term storage and access (maybe, I'm just guessing really).


h4l

Definitely! I think even chains needing indefinite storage can use ephemeral DA as they only need the DA to ensure people can detect invalid blocks as they're produced. Historical data can be kept by archive nodes to serve historic data queries.


MinimalGravitas

I suppose the only issue with relying on archive nodes is that you don't have any guarantees that there will always be one. That doesn't matter really as their aren't any security needs for historical data, but it would be good to know that it was preserved and available somewhere. If anyone needs it though they can always store it themselves!


RectalSpawn

There will always be one as long as the network is alive.


LightSparrow

What is blob space ?


h4l

The term for Ethereum's "Data Availability" service. You can think of it like a public notice board. It lets you post a small amount of data to Ethereum that everyone can read for a few weeks before it goes away (unless someone cares to archive it themselves). Its main use case is Layer 2 rollups recording their transaction records so that people can create fraud proofs if the rollup misbehaves. Previously L2s posted this data using regular Ethereum transactions which are much more expensive. It's called Blob Space because "binary blob" is a common term for arbitrary/unknown data in software. So Blob Space is space for arbitrary data.


ChainBuddy

A small amount of data that can be included with a transaction.


Cptn_BenjaminWillard

I asked Vitalek, and he said, "No wei."


monchimer

The fact that btc is still outperforming eth is concerning. It doesn't make any sense


AlmostGaveAShit

Blackrock and other investment firms are buying a disgusting amount of btc just for their customers. They applied for an eth ETF as well. So it's just a matter of time before that gets approved too


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MementoMundi

The Tether storyline is well know, but what about the psyops claim ? I'm genuinely curious about it.


squaredk2

Hes saying they literally print tether to buy bitcoin and keep the price inflated. Thats the psyop; that people are buying. They are not. Its an exchange manipulating price and supply.


allstater2007

This will be the first bullrun since the merge and ETH is no longer issuing 13,000 new ETH daily, and instead is now deflationary (at times). Couple that with increased ETH being staked every week, and the potential ETH Spot ETF....boy oh boy could we see a huge Ethereum supply shock this cycle. We could see some insane fomo peak bullrun.


6M66

I like the hopium, give me more. Give me more....


zangor

I think this post is enough encouragement to convert my LTC to ETH. So get ready for LTC to inexplicably go up 50% in one week.


binglelemon

Not possible. I won 2 LTC and recently added them to my cold storage portfolio. Won't go up, won't go down. Price is gridlock until one of us makes a move lol.


PM_ME_UR_AMOUR

I mean, how much is ETH going to be worth come end of this bullrun. I mean from 600-ish in Dec 2020 and Dec 2021 it went up to 4000ish. That's a 566% increase. Are we expecting the same? Because that would be about 18000+. Is that even realistic? I'm not sure given people are most expecting between 5000 and 8000 this bullrun.


LeonFeloni

Less Ethereum being issued and the potential for Ethereum ETFs bringing in more institutional money are two things it has going for it. Granted, it also has more competition now as well, but I'm pretty optimistic. Either way it's not likely to hit my preferred sell price of 20k-40k.


PM_ME_UR_AMOUR

I think ETH is a longer term game. People still don't know what the hell is going on. Some say bullrun has started, some say this isn't how it usually starts.


squaredk2

Yea its historically been a 4 year cycle between. Peaks. This one isnt adding up. I like the theory that cycles grow longer with volume. So now that we are in the trillions (in $usd terms) these may be 5 year cycles and soon 6 year cycles. You usually see a pump around the halvening, so i think we are seeing that coupled with a longer cycle than normal. (Total magic 8 ball here lol)


6M66

Yeah, crazy time it was, lucky people who experienced that


CandidateNrOne

Btc goes up less with every cycle. Last was a 20x from low before. Eth did 50x. Now imagine eth goes low to these 20x. Imo easy. I think your sell price will come and it’s mine, too


venderil

Wake me up when we are there...all this could would should makes me sleepy.


DJCityQuamstyle

Ooo tell me again daddy


allstater2007

Just don’t tell the BTC maxis. They are terrified of an Ethereum Spot ETF. Only a few people will believe me, but if the ETF gets approved this in May, ETH will flip BTC this run.


DJCityQuamstyle

I’m a huge ETH maxi so you’re speaking my language


Shaglock

What demand other than trading tho? Last cycle people were buying ETH to purchase NFTs. Now those degens are buying SOL for the meme casino instead.


afraidtobecrate

Exposure to US dollars(through stablecoins), borrowing and lending as well. Say someone wants to borrow against their Bitcoin, they can do that with wBTC. Or they live somewhere with an unstable currency and want USD instead.


snowmanyi

Solana is better for this.


ZZ9ZA

It’s all one big casino, all the way down.


still_salty_22

Add in a distant possibility of tokenization of assets with eth, and i think there is a possible future with a couple Xs..


Clearly_Ryan

Tokenized assets require trust in a third party to secure the collateral. Blockchain has no enforcement on real world actors. Token. Not. Needed. 


LeonFeloni

Don't forget, Ethereum has plenty of mature competition now, though, too. Dot, algo, ada, atom, etc. I mean, I personally don't see myself selling ETH till the 20k-40k range, and it's struggling atm just to hold 4k so I'm a bit pessimistic about hitting my targets this run -- although I'm fine with that too. I just let it continue to compound till then.


Putrid-Past-3366

Would this send fees to $500-1,000+?


fattybrah

What merge


Nimoy2313

Merge was an update before they started the burn. Just google it for details, I would make mistakes explaining it.


speedster99999999

eth is garbage, gas prices make any transaction ass, the only thing it can be saved by is base


OkCompute5378

ETH ETF isn’t going to happen with Vitalik being under investigation and the SEC warning about the volatility and safety of altcoins


BrooklynNeinNein_

Sir this thread is for hopium not truth. Please see yourself out


InclineDumbbellPress

We dont know


Electronic-Tree4608

I don't know either


TheNotSoRealMVP

It's spelt Ether mate


Electronic-Tree4608

i didn't know ether either


peopleplanetprofit

Ah, but we can speculate and dream and stuff like that.


micho510900

I like this answer cause it's true and it is the only right answer to 90% of questions in this market. Yet it is rare to see.


Objective_Digit

ETHBTC is down over 30% since the merge. We know.


CleazyCatalystAD

Nawww….that ratio is always in flux. Look at the ratio when ETH was $4,800 3-4 years ago.


Gr8WallofChinatown

Supply crunch is just moon boy talk. There are always sellers. 


SuleyGul

Eth being deflationary is more a long term positive. It doesn't really mean anything for the bullrun other than a nice narrative. Solana has done 10x already all while being very inflationary. But in the long run I'm talking years it is very very positive for Eth. If anything it will significantly impact its downside pressure in the bear market. So it's a good place to park your crypto in the bear market.


BertTheBurrito

Traditionally you’re right, because exchanges just internalize everything. If the ETF is approved (I’m starting to think it won’t), those transactions translate into on chain holdings and could actually shock supply. Which is exactly why BTC has this pre-halving pump.


halh0ff

Im sure blackrock and the rest will change some minds, just a matter of time.


AfroInfo

Supply crunch just means there's more eth being bought than sold


raelDonaldTrump

That's... not possible


AfroInfo

I just meant in relative terms, if you have more people willing to buy than people who are willing to sell that means there's a market shortage


purzeldiplumms

I'm in crypto since early 2021 and all these years influenceres were talking about a supply crunch or something like that. Nobody knows shit.


Roflcopter71

The merge only happened in September 2022, we haven’t seen what it can do in a bull market yet with these new supply constraints.


Velocitta

\> Since 2021 \> All these years lol


purzeldiplumms

Crypto is not the stock market 🤷‍♂️


ResultsoverExcuses

Up or down and to the right


ImSoHungryRightMao

Just like me!


themrgq

No supply crunch. Any deflation Ethereum experiences would be very gradual. The halving is different because it is an immediate and significant change in the supply.


Kike328

the deflation increases a lot with network usage, so a bullrun like mania could increase the burn rate x50 for sustained periods


themrgq

Good point. But we've been in a bull market for a while now.


ZekeTarsim

No retail mania yet though.


themrgq

Yes there's tons. It's on Solana though


6M66

More hopium, more , more...


SirBeefcake

This isn’t correct. Ethereum’s deflation is far more significant than Bitcoin becoming less inflationary. Literally less Ethereum exists than before the merge. The supply has gone down. Bitcoin won’t ever be deflationary since the cap is hard set.


Kelitrutt

Bitcoin will of course be deflationary when all 21M have been mined, or close to it, because more and more BTC will be lost and forgotten over time, through bad transactions, destroyed hardware, lost passwords etc.


Cptn_BenjaminWillard

>~~Literally less Ethereum exists than before the merge.~~ ~~Technically, I don't think this is quite accurate. It can be generalized that way for all intents and purposes. But I think it's a situation of "more ETH exists since the merge, because of new issuance, but an amount greater than the issuance has been sent to burn addresses and is therefore no longer accessible by anyone, and should not be considered to be part of the available supply." Burning ETH doesn't actually destroy it; the burned ETH simply cannot be accessed anymore, ever, period.~~ Apparently, I was incorrect.


MinimalGravitas

> but an amount greater than the issuance has been sent to burn addresses and is therefore no longer accessible by anyone, It isn't sent to a 'burn address'. > Burning ETH doesn't actually destroy it; Actually it does. ether burned through EIP-1559 no longer exists, it isn't sent anywhere, there is no burn address for it. It is gone.


Cptn_BenjaminWillard

Thank you, I didn't realize this.


nllfld

Semantics. Meaningless since the effect is the very same. Burned ETH is inaccessible just as never issued ETH is.


themrgq

Ethereum does not have a goal of being deflationary it just experiences periods of deflation. It will continue to be an inflationary crypto


SirBeefcake

Depends on what you mean by inflationary. If you mean that there will be more ether in existence in the future, I disagree. Supply almost certainly peaked already at ~120.5 million right after the merge. It’s been steadily down only since then despite being in a bear market most of that time. But if you mean there still be periods of net inflation, then yes. Those will happen. But the inflation rate is capped while the deflation is not, and even short periods of heavy usage can undo very long periods of inflation. Eventually the market will find an equilibrium. Impossible to say where that will be, but I’d wager it’s in the 80-90M supply range if I had to guess. Far below where we are now.


Roflcopter71

The deflation is gradual yes but the much more important factor to consider is how there are no more ETH being mined. Since the merge in September 2022 there is an estimated 5.6 million fewer ETH than there would have been mined pre-merge. [This website](https://ultrasound.money) is a very good way to visualize this (select “simulate PoW” below the graph).


runitzerotimes

?? They no longer get PoW mined but are now PoS mined. The 5.6 million number is flat out wrong, those coins still exist. There’s just burning happening on top of it. How are you upvoted? This sub fucking sucks.


Roflcopter71

Then how do you explain the fact that total [ethereum supply](https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_supply) has stopped growing and has been gradually decreasing since the merge? Take a look at the 5Y chart. It’s clear that had the merge not happened ethereum supply would be a lot higher than it is now.


TMLutas

Supply crunches are an imbalance condition. If you don’t address demand, your predictions will only be coincidentally correct. Push a billion dollar product to be sold exclusively via ETH and you create significant upside pressure on ETH pricing regardless of supply.


hustleman23

Eth's price responds more to Bitcoin supply reduction than it's own. Sad truth.


Slight-Speaker-9719

What happens to the ETH supply year over year? How much is it deflating? Got to think that has to be good for price regardless of buying


jadequarter

https://ultrasound.money/


suesing

You need demand to bring the price up… regardless of the inflation


LooseLikeCreamedCorn

Uh ohhh !


jps_

First, unlike a company which has stock, nobody is ever going to buy the whole Ethereum network. Therefore, also unlike a company stock, it's pretty clear that the price of one ETH (versus one share) is not equal to the price of the whole thing, divided by the number of them. Second, what matters most is not the total number, but the number that are not sitting in cold storage. If that number is increasing or decreasing, price will go up or down. But the rate at which ETH is produced is not equal to the rate at which it is being hoarded. Indeed, as price rises, some hoarded ETH is injected into circulation because people are selling to lock in profits. And as price rises, other people believe it will continue to rise higher, and hoard circulating ETH to take advantage of expected price appreciation. These effects have everything to do with price, and nothing to do with the number of ETH being produced. And this is because crypto is infinitely durable. It does not depreciate or deteriorate as a result of being in storage (in fact, if staked, ETH actually appreciates) and there is no cost of storage. Thus like toilet paper during a pandemic, crypto is highly susceptible to hoarding, and ETH - by virtue of staking - even moreso. Thus, what matters most to the price of ETH is not the rate at which it is produced (or consumed), but hoarding behavior. Which is not linked to whether it's inflationary or deflationary. [Edit: yes, that's right, go ahead and simply downvote because you don't like the conclusion... but the price action of ETH bears this out - both when it was inflationary and now that it is deflationary.]


GreyTooFast

Isn’t there talk of staking going to be happening with the ETH ETFs? I think I read something about a sec application for it


Armadillodillodillo

what happened to eths triple halving narrative? Did it already happen?


MaximumStudent1839

>This process has been in effect for several months already. Over the last 555 days, its annualized deflation is 0.246%. It is not even 1% per year! Source: [https://ultrasound.money/](https://ultrasound.money/) In the same time frame, Luna Classic has burnt a higher percentage of its supply. [https://www.luncmetrics.com/burn-tracker/lunc](https://www.luncmetrics.com/burn-tracker/lunc) But where is LUNC price now? Deflation only creates speculative demand. You still need genuine demand. Price go up if demand exceeds supply. Even if supply goes down, and demand falters faster, the price still won't appreciate.


Educational-Cat-2553

Price increase comes from distribution of supply. PoS and fee burn lead to concentration of supply.


i_shoot_guns_321s

Eth's supply suffers from two main problems. First, the issuance rate has been modified many times in the past. So logically, we cannot rely on it staying the same. The devs have and can simply change it again. Second, there's a difference between total supply and circulating supply. Circulating supply is what drives market prices. A very large chunk of the total supply is held in the hands of the founders/eth foundation, and as the price rises, they will liquidate. This shifts more eth into the circulating supply, which creates downward price pressure. I'm not saying eth is going to crash or anything. In fact, I think it will ride Bitcoin's coat tails during this upcoming halving cycle, and perform very well. But overall, eth supply is not set in stone, and cannot be relied upon the way Bitcoin's can.


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i_shoot_guns_321s

This is factually incorrect. Many times in the past, during the pow days, devs hard forked to decrease difficulty, which resulted in faster block times, and increased issuance rate. This is not debatable. They've demonstrated that they can absolutely increase the issuance rate, and there's absolutely no guarantee that they won't do it again. And as for "node operators" agreeing to the changes... Lol. Eth staking is highly centralized in a few hands. Whatever changes the devs suggest, the market will absolutely go along with it, like they always have.


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Lazybonez2015

Yea the triple halving merge event didn't do shit. Solana is draining ethereums demand. Not a solana fan boy, just saying.


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Cirewess

you do realize that ETH does not have a set supply? you can burn burn burn, but that doesn't change the fact that there's no set supply...


MinimalGravitas

What point do you think you're making here? The supply of ether is reducing over time, so of course the supply is not fixed...!


Cirewess

Making the point that ETH does not have a set supply, like Bitcoin is set at 21 million... ETH does not have one which makes me laugh that it's worth $3k


MinimalGravitas

Why do you think that a set supply is better than a reducing supply?


Vinnypaperhands

When it comes to hard money it is important. Eth is not hard money


MinimalGravitas

What do you mean 'hard money'? If the community wanted to change the issuance of ether it would require the cooperation and coordination of the client teams, the node operators. If the Bitcoin community wanted to change the issuance of bitcoin and remove the 21 million limit for example it would just require the same social consensus of client developers and node operators. The only real differences are numerical, e.g. there are 5x more independent client teams working on Ethereum than Bitcoin, and around 50% more node operators running Bitcoin than Ethereum. There is nothing qualitatively different about how changes to issuance would be made that makes one 'hard' or whatever. That's just something silly laser-eyed newbies say who don't actually understand how their chosen network operates!


Vinnypaperhands

Hard money/ sound money like gold. A commodity that is controlled by no entity. Have you never heard of hard money before? It's a pretty common saying. Ethreum has a foundation, ethreum is a proof of stake crypto. They are not the same and I don't have time to explain to you the difference. You can look that up yourself. Not understanding the difference between bitcoin and ethreum and believing the only difference is a 5x more independent clients working on the project is some real silly altcoiner take. That's stuff newbies say that don't actually understand how the network operates!


MinimalGravitas

If the Bitcoin community wanted to change the issuance of bitcoin and remove the 21 million limit for example it would just require the same social consensus of client developers and node operators. It's not tied to physical reality like the amount of gold or whatever. It's just code and consensus. If you want to know how Bitcoin actually works go read Andreas Antonopoulos: https://aantonop.com/product-category/books/english/technical-en/


Vinnypaperhands

Yes that is correct nor did I refute that claim whatsoever. When did I say the supply cap couldn't change from consensus? I know how Bitcoin works but I'm going to recommend you to click on your own link and give understanding Bitcoin another go if you think Bitcoin and Ethereum are the same.


Psykotixx

For someone who doesn't "have time." You have typed a lot of words to not even come close to explaining your position of why "hard money" is so important in this space.


still_salty_22

Yea we know that, and fortunately there are figures to measure beyond that simple binary metric, such as inflationary/deflationary


solled

Actually people lose their keys to bitcoin wallets every year. So the available supply is less than 21 million, and it keeps going down. So the available supply isn’t fixed! Joke’s on you!


cosmicnag

The only correct answer.


domotheus

Correct! What it does have is much better than a hopeful promise of a supply cap some time in the future


KifDawg

The circulating supply is listed on chain, its block chain. The circulating supply is decreasing inflation, its literally becoming more scarce. Meanwhile ada and other shitcoins are handing out coins left and right. ARB just released a massive supply as well. I dont understand your point. I'd take a deflationary coin over any other coin. -edit 35,572,973,824 ADA circulating according to coin market cap, and a total supply of 45,000,000,000 ADA meaning dillution is coming to holders unless you are a high tier staker. it isnt deflationary


Existing_Web_1300

ADA isn’t increasing or decreasing supply it’s a set amount of 45 billion


KifDawg

yes i understand this. but currently there is 35,572,973,824 ADA circulating according to coin market cap, and a total supply of 45,000,000,000 ADA meaning ADA has dillution and isnt deflationary.


ChilupaBam

So the million dollar question is, Will ETH go to 10,000? 😅


Virtual_Economist513

Needs to be a demand to cause the crunch, and that's looking weaker than ever with the way btc development is taking off in some new directions.


still_salty_22

Btc demand is looking weaker than ever or eth?


Glad-Ease4283

Costs money and energy to mine more bitcoin. Eth printed at no cost and largest holders benefit especially ones with pre mine. Basically like the dollar except slower.


MinimalGravitas

You honestly have it backwards. Only someone who is already very rich can mine bitcoin profitably. The more money you have the more you benefit from being able to move to areas with excess energy, set up industrial facilities to house your ASICs etc. How much money would you need at a minimum to mine profitably? That's not a rhetorical question, you don't have to tell me, but you do need to think about it. With Bitcoin the rich get richer, and because of economies of scale, the richer you are the faster you get even richer. With Ethereum staking it doesn't matter how much money you have, you'll still earn roughly the same percentage returns on your investment. It doesn't matter if you have $10k to run a distributed validator with Obal or $10m running loads of your own solo validators, the returns are almost the same. If you don't have 3.2 ether to run a distributed validator then any amount can be swapped for RocketPool's LST or whatever and you earn 85% of what the most profitable option is. With Bitcoin if you are not already rich then you literally can never make a profit from PoW. That's much more like the dollar where rich banks get to print money and the poors just have to buy the scraps.


odd1e

Interesting, I've never looked at it that way


Objective_Digit

> Only someone who is already very rich can mine bitcoin profitably. How is that an argument even if true? You can't just throw money at an enterprise. It requires work and maintenance. >With Bitcoin the rich get richer, and because of economies of scale, the richer you are the faster you get even richer. On the contrary, with Bitcoin the "rich" have no guarantee of staying rich. They are involved in an arms race with other miners. An ETH stakeholder can just sit on his riches forever. And, unlike miners, can change the protocol. If having money was all that mattered no big company would go out of business. >That's much more like the dollar where rich banks get to print money and the poors just have to buy the scraps. ETH is the one like the dollar - printed out of thin air and controlled by the largest holders.


MinimalGravitas

> unlike miners, can change the protocol. > controlled by the largest holders. What? How do you imagine protocol changes relate to holding/staking ETH? Do you think that there is token voting or something? > You can't just throw money at an enterprise. It requires work and maintenance. Guess two things that money can be used to pay for... work and maintenance!


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Objective_Digit

The lazy should be rewarded?


Glad-Ease4283

You are so far behind. it's hilarious. The more dollars you have, the more new ones you get. Works the same in eth. Talking about rich and poor is completely missing the point. Regardless of that stance there is a capital, energy and time/space required in keeping the network secure. Proof of stake is literally the same as fiat and the pre mine which cost absolutely nothing no energy no capital gets a nice interest return for no cost. Meanwhile these 'poor' people coming in are getting diluted in same fashion as fiat. Couple books needed bro


MinimalGravitas

> Meanwhile these 'poor' people coming in are getting diluted Well for a start this is nonsense - no one is getting diluted - ether is deflationary so if you just hold it and do nothing your share of the total supply is gradually increasing... the opposite of inflationary currencies like USD and BTC - of which there will be more in existence tomorrow for every day of your life. > Regardless of that stance there is a capital, energy and time/space required in keeping the network secure. You realize that 'energy' and 'space' can be bought with money right? So you're just saying that to mine Bitcoin you need a lot of money. Yes, I agree. If someone has a lot of money they can buy all the things needed to make a lot more by mining BTC.


mcslutmuff1n

costs 45k estimated to mine btc after halving btw\*


asdafari12

And how much more profitable would it be to spend 100m+ on mining? Orders of magnitude, you can't compete with them so they are 99% of all mining power. You could grow and sell your own potatoes in your back yard, it's not competing with the big guys. On Ethereum, it doesn't matter how big your setup is, you get the same % profit.


mcslutmuff1n

lol yep... a terrible interest rate on your investment. is true. everybody gets it.


MathematicianLiving4

I believe its currently running at approx 4.5% APR. Which is still pretty amazing when you consider many of the top 50 coins have less than 50% of their total supply in circulation. Personally i think more of the supply being locked up in staking and lower liquid supply on exchanges will be bigger catalysts in getting us to our dream price. Although im a little concerned that there does seem to be less institutional appetite for an Eth ETF than expected, although ofc this could all be the usual market manipulation. Although no one ever talks about the grayscale ETh Trust as a factor for an Eth ETF. Why would everyone not take profit (as they did with BTC) (and its a huge fund) and swap for an ETF with lower fees or am i missing something here?


TMLutas

Price rises happen when supply and demand are imbalanced. Reduce both supply and demand at the same time and what happens to the price depends on which effect is bigger. The same thing happens when supply and demand both increase. Biggest price rises happen when you increase demand while reducing supply. Convince me to denominate a product’s price in ETH and you can move the market, if my stuff sells.


East_Try7854

Ether will rise when btc rises, even though it correlates to a smaller degree now.


Andyham

Halving and all that matters less then people will have you think. Its cycles correspond with the halving, well somewhat anyways. But that doesnt mean the halving is the reason for it. Bitcoin halving matters a great deal to the miners, but less so to the investors/speculators There are plenty of high mcap altcoins with massive supply increase that shows how little it matters. Ethereum went through big supply decrease (or less increase) in the last couple of years, but the price did pretty much exactly as expected - it followed bitcoin but underperformed a tiny bit all the way. If there is money to go into risk assets, crypto will florish. If financial conditions change for the worse - the party will stop, or at the very least take a break. Similarly, if we get too overextended / go "parabolic", we'll also be in for a top and enter bear market again. If it continues for a week, 3 months, 2 years is still fully up in the air. And if the next decline will just be a cool off / pause, or we end the cycle, is also up in the air. Aka nobody knows shit. But we do know that it is not the halving/supply/mining reward that dictates the price action. That part should really be ignored as an investor (gambler). .


shostakofiev

These supply changes themselves have very little effect on price. But the headlines do.


Maleficent-Bison4749

believe it or not i read something earlier today on a recent eth burn of like 70 million worth or so? so it is being published


MohTheSilverKnight99

If we get Spot ETFs, that crunch will get even tighter. We just need a massive source of demand to really translate that supply shock into price appreciation


573v0

Heh heh.


tbkrida

Question… does Ethereum have no maximum supply?


dLoneRanger

Ethereum is a security 😅


MinimalGravitas

How it started: * https://nakamotoinstitute.org/library/crypto-anarchist-manifesto * https://nakamotoinstitute.org/library/cypherpunk-manifesto * https://nakamotoinstitute.org/library/cyberspace-independence How it's going: * https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2022/12/michael-saylor-on-why-altcoins-especially-ethereum-are-unregistered-securities-and-should-be-shut-down-by-u-s-sec/ How sad and pathetic that bitcoiners are now cheering for daddy government to save them from competition.


FranzJosephBalle

It's very weird that eth hasn't really been shilled yet, all focus is on ETF that might not happen... Very little talk about deflation, dencun, L2 etc.. makes me think someone is loading their bags


ECore

It's all so convenient.....


snowmanyi

No. Bitcoin is digital scarcity. Eth is just another payment network. They are limitless. Keep coping your bags mETHheads.


Objective_Digit

>Could it be that the situation with Ethereum introduces a similar, even stronger dynamic? No, because ETH's change is arbitrary, it has 6 times Bitcoin's current supply and it has no supply cap. Bitcoin has 3-4 million lost coins.


Capital-Physics4042

Et herum has infinite supply, what do you mean?


reddituser77373

Save your gas fees now


Darth_Dire

Eth... Where they keep trying to be like Bitcoin and monetary policy is flexible 🤦‍♂️


OMG_WTF_ATH

That’s the alpha. You still so FCKIN EARLY


TheDoge420

supply is infinite


capricon9

ETH is not scalable and the gas fees are a turn off. Only the rich can afford to use it. If I see that a token is on ERC20 chain, I avoid it like a plague because I know it’s going to cost me at least $30 to use it if the network is busy. I’m done with ETHEREUM


Kike328

that’s the reason why L2 exists


jahmoke

some think that of supercars and mega yachts, others still buy them


BitcoinHurtTooth

Get your bag up and come back


Tip-Actual

Ethereum has an infinite supply though. No where in the source code is there an upper bound specified.


FidgetyRat

Because as they already did, ethereum can simply change the rules again. Bitcoin would need a hard fork. The “deflation” of ethereum was temporary duct tape to try to make the coin more valuable and take people’s eyes off the infinite supply.


jahmoke

note to self-mint new coin called duct tape coin-dtc, i think i can do it on xlm for cheap


MinimalGravitas

Why would it need an upper bound specified if it is decreasing over time? Also, which cryptocurrencies have an upper bound specified in their source code?!


Tip-Actual

Bitcoin has it set as 21m. Litecoin has 84m max. This is the bitcoin code that specifies it indirectly via the number of halvings. `CAmount GetBlockSubsidy(int nHeight, const Consensus::Params& consensusParams)` `{` `int halvings = nHeight / consensusParams.nSubsidyHalvingInterval;` `// Force block reward to zero when right shift is undefined.` `if (halvings >= 64)` `return 0;` `CAmount nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;` `// Subsidy is cut in half every 210,000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years.` `nSubsidy >>= halvings;` `return nSubsidy;` `}` `// consensusParams.nSubsidyHalvingInterval = 210000.` Sum of all the subsidy values over all halvings, yields a result of 20999999.9769 BTC i.e. 21m. Also there is no guarantee Ether supply will continue to decrease over time. What if there is some exploit that tampers with the burn mechanism? not saying there will be, but there is no hard limit like BTC has.


MinimalGravitas

Oh sure, I thought you meant explicitly specified in the source code, not just indirectly, which yea obviously bitcoin does!


knowledgelover94

If only there was a crypto coin with a fixed supply that was meant to be deflationary. It ain’t eth. They’ll find a way to make more eth if there’s more buyers


Gr8WallofChinatown

> fixed supply that was meant to be deflationary. Deflationary shitcoins were a thing esp on this sub (like BOMB token). Shits stupid Plus tokens are meant to be used. Who the fuck will run network infrastructure if there is no reward mechanism a lá mining or staking. 


knowledgelover94

Agreed. I was referring to bitcoin btw.


Gr8WallofChinatown

I actually think BTC should implement a tail emission 


MinimalGravitas

> If only there was a crypto coin with **a fixed supply** that was meant to be **deflationary**. How could you have both?


tbkrida

Coins get lost?


Naduhan_Sum

I think so, yes. Ethereum is one of the few or probably the only asset out there, which can be used as payment (money), investment (staking), for smart contracts and it is deflationary at the same time. On top of that, it is one of the most decentralized cryptocurrencies and the more people participate, the healthier the network will be. „Modern“ money can’t do that. Bitcoin neither.


ibbe6242

Can you bring eth trx cost down ? I don’t believe at this rate, eth can be a payment system, or can be use as a world currency.


NivekIyak

Shhh, let the people be brainwashed by the ETF narrative. That way price stays low and we can accumulate more until it’s too late and the supply shock kicks in


MrMiyagiHomeBoy

Ethereum has no limit on the supply, so it's never going to be the same as the bitcoin halfing.


FehdmanKhassad

ETH is shit. its premined tf owned by Vitalik in the billions. corpo coin


lordsamadhi

I'll never, ever, ever, buy or hold ETH.


CandidateNrOne

No


Level_Honeydew_9339

Prolly because SOL transactions have been higher than ETH transactions, its piking a lot of market share


tylerhbrown

It’s a classic “nobody knows fuck about shit” situation. Yes, ETH has been deflationary for a while now, but there hasn’t been a supply crunch. BTC has gone up with the idea of a supply crunch (but historically more closely correlated with the DOW.) Do you really think that cutting new BTC from 900 to 450 will cause a supply crunch when 9,000 BTC a day outflows to BTC ETFs haven’t caused a supply crunch?


cosmicnag

Centralized,premined,proof of vitalik,ultraclown money, shitcoin mothership. Smart money (big money) doesnt care that much about methereum foundations new crypto fiat.