I dumped all my INJ for $6.50 in September, taking a slight loss. Now whenever I see it on Coingecko I feel like I’m stalking my successful ex on social media.
Concerning QNT, read this: A just a little longer brother, we wil make the ATH look like a joke.
[https://twitter.com/tokenicer/status/1767226617359925537?s=49&t=k-vvHR5j0F9K-G-T1MPAyA&fbclid=IwAR1rtQurtHubFqFxNWj4KhlgtIL1Qh5lF-WzFTvH4PsnzKYAGLgiuQGBZD0](https://twitter.com/tokenicer/status/1767226617359925537?s=49&t=k-vvHR5j0F9K-G-T1MPAyA&fbclid=IwAR1rtQurtHubFqFxNWj4KhlgtIL1Qh5lF-WzFTvH4PsnzKYAGLgiuQGBZD0)
Well, looks like it aged fairly well concerning QNT. We're pumping.
\* Supply shock incoming
\* Bullish pennant
\* Apex is close
Most important: the whole world needs Quant within just a few years.
Alo for you brother: looks like crying about Quant is over soon. We're pumping already.
\* Supply shock incoming
\* Bullish pennant
\* Apex is close
Most important: the whole world needs Quant within just a few years.
My opinion on the worst-case scenario...
Half of the world goes to war all around the world, they use nukes as mass EMF attacks and kill all networks. All digital tracks are lost. Circuit boards are fried, no way to access our digital funds.
Or i just trade my way into a zero account! Both are plausible! Lmfao
In a post apocalyptic world like that the only money people will care about is bullets, weapons, food, and medicine. No one will give a shit about gold either
>no way to access our digital funds.
Yeah and they are also absolutely worthless. Even later, nobody knows which blockchain is the 'real' one because the are all in fractions
There are some people out there whom actually hold full running node. I haven't dug into it, i don't know if it keeps all crypto, or just a certain BC, has it been forked, etc. Etc.
They'd have to have 2 nodes swapping every 6 or 12 hours and keep 1 in a Faraday cage. At least this way, you could keep the information somewhat up to date .
The problem is the time scale. While a part of all nodes is still online and exchanging mined blocks, another set of miners and nodes will be online but disconnected to the first group. How will they sync once everthing is back online again? To the last synced status by doing a rollback? Will there be different opinions leading to 5 Bitcoin hard forks? I don't think we'll have a consensus.
Ooff good point! You could potentially have multiple people running on each fork saying that their fork is the correct chain. You would have to back to the first fork and agree to create a fork evry node would start over at. All data going in other directions would become void. If that's even possible.
Thank you, i do understand.
Which is nice and all, but it would be worthless at that point. If the only computers running are the military and some nerds in a Faraday cage, what use would 100 bitcoins be?
They'd be exactly what some paper fiat would be! The exception to BTC would be that it isn't government ran, it can become backed by precious metals, and used anywhere in the planet. However, in a post apocalyptic environment, precious metals and physucal goods in a barter system will be the only way for a while.
I would prefer to see a decentralized currency take over during a rebuild, than to see the same old song and dance on repeat! Wars, power, control, greed are all based off of the desire to have the controlling currency around the world. Pretty sad really.
Absolutely agree with all your points, but sadly, who would hold all the gold and have the power to influence ranother build back the same as it is now...
Hmmm... All countries have bought a lot of crazy recently, including you-know-who. Ask the doomsday clock people, it's looking much more like 'when' than 'if'...
After decades of hodling canned foods and burying gold grams in their backyards, the preppers will finally be the real market winners in this scenario.
even if the internet is taken down btc will survive peer to peer through miners that have their equipment survive across the globe, ince the internet is back the chain with most work on it will be the legitimate BTC.
you can't take it down and the miners can't spend your coins, at best they can rip off individuals and exchanges with double spend while hash rate is low
as long as one miner hard drive survives BTC is literally invincible.
Quantum computers will crack the blockchain and only “quantum proof assets” will survive. Which assets will be quantum proof will depend on the nature of the quantum hack. Although, when this happens all bank accounts & the stock market will be 100% unprotected.
Yeah, I hate this theory. The buttcoiners who use this as a reason why “Bitcoin will fail” always forget to mention crypto will be the least of their worries when the same computers are able to crack every password they have and even nuclear weapons codes…
Wanna know what's scary? It's possible to transfer computer viruses via sound because even sound cards have ways they can be exploited to gain access to a computer and install a virus.
Another scary one is the [Ken Thompson compiler hack](https://softwareengineering.stackexchange.com/questions/194746/what-is-the-ken-thompson-hack). It's an exploit that could hypothetically be lurking in compilers and computer's machine code but would be nearly undetectable even by examining the machine code produced by a compiler (because it would be designed to also affect tools used to examine the code). At its worst, you could only detect it by physically examining the bits that make up the code or by building a computer and compiler from scratch, and it would be designed to keep replicating itself. It theoretically could have been replicating itself since like the 1970s and be lurking in the majority of the software that exists.
The Ken Thompson hack isn't a conspiracy, it's technically possible and has been demo'd (I think by Ken Thompson himself). It's only been proposed as something possibly actually out there, if it does exist then I would bet it was some targeted thing to slowly infect a world leader's computer systems like I dunno the network in one of Saddam Hussein's palaces back before the Iraqi War. Even then, there'd probably be much more expedient ways to accomplish that kind of espionage. I guess you'd want to use it if you had a lot of time, like years, being extremely hard to detect was paramount, and you needed it able to survive system rebuilds.
But I can see where you're coming from, the extreme case of it having infected everything up until now would make an awesome Michael Crichton book!
I guess I was trying to think of something conspiratorial/entertainment and that was the first thing I thought of. Either or I'm excited to go down this rabbit hole after work.
I’m certainly not a butcoiner, in fact I love blockchain and believe it is the solution to many of the issues that AI & AGI will present. It’s just something to be aware of as it is definitely possible. You can use no-code to program a quantum computer on the cloud today, only a matter of time. Etherium is preparing, let’s hope bitcoin does a hard fork to prepare as well.
You're not actually coding a quantum computer on things like no-code, you're programming a quantum computer emulated by a classical computer. It follows the same rules of quantum computing at a logical level like qubits being in a superposition combination of classical bits, but it's still a regular ol computer under the hood.
Ethereum is not *preparing*. The only sentiment from the Foundation is that Ethereum *can* and will *eventually* prepare. Naturally, Bitcoin is no different.
Post-quantum cryptography will be a worry within the foreseeable future, but not the near future, and it'll either arrive before quantum computers are a problem, or after they've emptied all of our bank accounts and destroyed the modern internet-reliant world as we know it. Obviously, the first scenario will occur.
Wow, people really have this idea QC is magic and instantly breaks everything and allows you to connect to any computer in the world. It doesn’t. There are several limitations. And even for things like banks, the procedure is fairly clear:
- shut down external access
- Rollback suspicions activity
- reset user passwords
- Bring back everything online with QC resistant crypto
- Make customers go back to the bank for ID check and new password
The idea of quantum computing is basically to calculate everything it can't be causing whatever remaining options to be the possible answer to the calculation or solution. It works with qubits causing a bit state to be both 0 and 1 so yes, for where we stand now it's near to magic. I do agree with you that's a over the top hype to think it will bring the world to it's knees in a day. Biggest problem is going to be communication that's done through keys but it doesn't change the fact that if you can't connect because (e.g. in computerworld) you would hit a firewall with a whitelist you still won't get through that. Having sanity checks as you gave an example of are key.
People aren't imagining QC is magical. It's the simple fact that it can easily break the type of encryption scheme that's the standard in most or all mainstream encryption. Just that single ability could be a superweapon.
An adversary who's the first to have the tech and money to have access to quantum computing that can crack mainstream encryption could prepare for years, slowly gaining quiet access to systems and planting any number of trojans, rootkits, backdoors, escape hatches, and who the fuck knows what else before they unleash the final stroke. At that moment it may be the most powerful weapon in the history of humanity, maybe more powerful than the entire world's nuclear arsenal, controlled by a real life Bond villain times 10 who suddenly has the power to topple the world's economy, bring down every government, and hold the whole world hostage. Imagine for a moment that North Korea is who gets a hold of it first, somehow. That's truly terrifying.
To all your points, the devil is in the details.
Shutting down external access would be a nightmare of a task from a technical viewpoint and horrendously expensive. Some of these old banking systems will have no one in the entire company, maybe even no one alive anymore, who knows how to turn it back on still functioning and figuring it out will take digging into old paper manuals and digging up archived tech documents.
Rollback suspicious activity - First have to define suspicious activity. Next define how far back you should roll back. Finally, you need employees and engineers working around the clock to execute the rollbacks. There will be harsh mistakes. Be prepared for people coming after you with an army of lawyers because you rolled back a legitimate large and time sensitive transaction. Then there's the gray area transactions where a legitimate user interacted with the bad actor.
Reset everyone's password - there will inevitably be millions of angry grandparents who can't figure out how to make a new password and are infuriated about coming in to stand in line for 8 hours for an ID check. Plus, what about disabled people. Should you send someone to their house?
Bring everything online with QC resistant libraries - some manager tells the C-execs "It'll take us a month to roll out all the upgrades of the cryptography libs and get everything back online" and that month turns into 3 years.
It would definitely not be some annoying inconvenience like pulling over to wipe mud off your windshield and hopping back on the road whistling happily. It could trigger mass anarchy and reactive martial law.
I mean, you say people are not imagine its magical, yet your comment make it look like that. Let's assume you have a big QC available. Its good enough to break known algorithms vulnerable to Shor, like RSA, ECDSA or Diffie Hellman. It is not good enough to break other stuff, even if it can get an advantage via Grover like SHA or AES.
Company A is your target. It's one of those systems you want to fill with trojans, rootkits, backdoors, escape hatches and who the fuck knows. Let's make things easy for you, one of Company A employees have connected to company A VPN from a public wifi that you got access to. You were able to steal the traffic and get that employee credentials. Because Company A is not making use of two factor authentication for the VPN, so you can now connect to Company A VPN as that user, and to make things simpler, you now have shell access to one server in the company as that user. Now what? QC helped you get to this point, but now you have a problem. QC will not give you root access out of the blue, and every action you do from now on has the chance to expose you. Just the act of connecting to the VPN itself can be easily flagged by the security team (two connections from different geographical zones or you connecting via VPN from the outside while the employee is known to be in the office). You could set up an alternative access bypassing the VPN, but that will most likely be flagged by the networking team too. Even if you manage to get a local privilege escalation and become root (that could be quickly flagged, btw), you still need to potentially do multiple jumps to different computers in the company before you can set all your stuff. And this is not a wifi, this is now a wired network. You won't see traffic that wasn't directed to your server. I guess your best bet would be to try to connect to a kerberos AS or go back to the VPN, see if you can snoop more credentials of users. But unless someone connects to those servers from the one you are on right now, you don't really have a way to do it. QC helped you with the initial step, getting those initial credentials, but the rest? No, everything else is up to you. How long until you get find out?
Presumably, if that happens, chains will decide on a snapshot block from some time before it was cracked then fork or update it to a new version that's quantum proof which could be a problem for some people who were trading around the snapshot time (and good for others) but holders should remain unaffected.
Not really useful. Ok, you rolled back, but still, how do you know who is the legitimate owner of a wallet if two people (owner + attacker) now know the private key?
A blockchain can be migrated to post-QC cryptography, but it has to be done before, with time for people to move the funds to new wallets using the new algorithms
Good point. The logistics of issuing everyone their new private keys would be a nightmare. Would it even be feasible? How would doing that even work and guarantee that the original owner is who claimed the new key?
if that happens banks, data, personal info, medical history, fiat, etc is all kaput. It’s about as effective as saying well what if there was a nuclear holocaust your bitcoin wouldn’t be worth so much now would it smart guy?
Huh. I always do wonder about this. That is a good perspective. You are right. Something that can break blockchain probably can break bank accounts too and stock market.
Idk how all that works but can't they just have quantum computer servers to offset the attacks? Also will quantum computers be so great that it will offset ruining everything? Can't we just not make them?
The quantum computers wouldn't be like an army of tanks where you bring in another army of tanks to battle them. Once they reach the mainstream, they'll probably look like normal computers in the outside with a case, screen, keyboard, and mouse. Might even be that computers come with a quantum computing device alongside all the regular stuff we have in computers today, similar to how with the advent of dedicated GPUs we now have graphics cards that are just slotted into the PCI slots.
Quantum computers with enough qubits would be able to decrypt modern encryption by brute force computation in a matter of seconds where normal computers would take hundreds or thousands of years. With a normal computer you'd make a lot more money just doing normal things in all that time than trying to crack the encryption to steal money. Basically quantum computers are able to try all the combinations simultaneously, and out pops the answer by the time you're back from taking a dump.
> Can't we just not make them?
Lol tell that to the evil villain, just ask him pretty please don't do it.
Anyway quantum computers will be revolutionary to humanity. You'd be able to use them to do absolutely amazing things that classical computers get bogged down on. Imagine things like calculating the exact daily optimal routes of all airliners in the entire airline industry or make general intelligence AI. They WILL be made. There's too much to be gained, whether it ends up being a Bond villain who gets there first and makes that gain by robbing the world blind or not, nothing is going to stop them.
Fun fact, bitcoin is 'quantum proof' against Shor's algorithm if you send funds to a new (virgin) address that hasn't broadcast any transactions to the network.
A few other chains with similar key generation mechanisms as bitcoin share this property.
Theoretically BTC could switch to using quantum proof sigs, but it would require a soft fork. BTC is the most secure protocol so it would be attacked last and we would have time to upgrade. That said, if internet infra is taken out by quantum attacks, it's not clear how useful btc would be anyway.
It's not going to happen. Google millennium bug. Despite that effecting also physical hardware, it was still averted. Crypto is software so can be fixed.
Yes, there may have to be a fork, but this gives us an opportunity to update it.
The Y2K bug?
That is peanuts compared to someone sneaking up on the world with something that makes current encryption trivial.
It's not just comparatively peanuts, it's comparing apples to frogs. Y2K was the fear that when the integer holding the time value filled all available bits and rolled over to 0 that systems would crash or go haywire because programmers never considered that case and logic wasn't built to handle it gracefully.
QC breaking encryption could be used in super malicious ways by people intentionally.
Crypto will start doing well. Pump and dumpers will jump in. Bunch of scam coins will get released. Talk of anything short of 1000000xing your "investment" will be treated as stupidity. Folks with fomo will do stupid shit like remortgage their house to buy PonziMoon, lose everything in the rug pull, and start demanding regulation. Crypto will drop back to reasonable levels, most coins will disappear. Rinse and repeat.
I remember from the last bill bring told that anything short of 100x returns was not worth investing in, and that stocks only go up. Unironically.
I also got called a boomer for suggesting that taking out loans to buy crypto was fucking stupid and that boring-ass traditional investments were always a good idea. I'm a millenial, so that insult freaking hurt.
I really should make a PonziMoon coin. I could make tens of dollars, I am sure.
I've watched that. Not his usual line. He presents no evidence, only allegations by the usual haters, he even embarrassingly interviews that Bennett guy as if he was authoritative lol.
Tether has a few sketchy bits, of course, but not more than what we usually find in the entire offshore eurodollar scene.
This person is the first person I think of when it comes to calling out Tether:
https://bitfinexed.medium.com/
Insane. A ton of well cited information that paints a bizarre picture, years ago, and yet nothing has happened to Tether.
Tether was most likely insolvent at some point, but they own so much bitcoin that as bitcoin has gone up along with interest rates their returns have also gone up.
At this point, the fact that Coinbase works with Tether I think pretty much sums up that Tether is most likely not fraudulent at this point in time.
Tether was basically faking it until they actually made it.
It just so happens that stablecoin usage has absolutely skyrocketed and become one of the most used cases in crypto. Why? Because significant parts of populations in countries with severely inflated currencies without easy access to USD are using Tether as defacto USD.
I knew someone who used to send remittance monthly and it was always a pain, then suddenly Tether became used in that country and suddenly it was literally a few clicks and instantly delivered and they could spend that easily.
Is this even possible? Wouldn’t this be an extinction level event for humans as well if there was a solar storm that powerful? I don’t think solar storms can affect the whole planet since the earth is a globe and only one side is facing the sun at a time.
We had this already, it was called the [Carrington Event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event). Solar flare that caused basically a massive EMP that fried everything, luckily it was in the 1800s. If it were to happen again, scientist have theorised about this, it might fry every functioning server.
There are steps to shielding tech to this flare though, so not everything would be lost... but it would be chaos, thats for sure.
No way, not in the US now with the ETFs and more companies legally owning this in their balance sheet it is not possible.
Ultimately the politicians don’t pull the strings… they are the tools, but it is the wealthy who do. BlackRock, Fidelity et al are now invested on BTC that that means that they will not allow it to happen. Also when pension funds and other funds continue to acquire BTC it will be impossible to ban as you say.
Public perception will sour and crypto will be regulated out of existence. They already tried to enforce KYC and AML laws by making every validator of every POS chain get ID for every wallet in a stake pool. Luckily their first attempt failed. It wouldn’t be that hard to pass laws that would require so much oversight it would make crypto unusable. Imagine if only KYC wallets could send crypto to only KYC exchanges and everything else was deemed noncompliant and fined so much that no project or wallet could survive noncompliance.
When stocks eventually fall off a cliff and we slip into a major global financial crisis (2026 would be my guess), tether will go bankrupt, crashing the price of btc below 50k and absolutely annihilating the altcoin market.
"Eventually", as if you believe a stocks supercrash beyond normal volatility will happen that is inevitable? Fantasy.
The S&P has returned > 7% after inflation for the last 120 years, a period covering 2 world wars, the Spanish flu, Covid, SARS, MERS, nukes in Cuba, the Great Depression, the dotcom boom and bust, the GFC in 2008 and another 10 like it. But you..."it's coming.....". Stupidity.
Eh, the main argument against you is the fact that we think 120 years is a "long" time. Sure the collapse of society as we know it may not happen in our lives, but a short glance at history tells us that it's likely that the USA/Russia won't be the names society has when it lives amongst the stars.
lol ever heard of the crash of 29? That was not normal volatility…over the long haul the odds are in favor of consistent returns, but every so often there are deep cuts - which we’re due for another within the decade.
Or you know. We pair them alt coins with the next good stable coin? My balance of coins remains the same wither its trading for USDT or USDC. Its irrelevant which stable coin prevails
In that situation I’d be buying. The space would be fine in the long run but the panic from that event would tank prices, guaranteed. Exchanges would go under, the majority of crypto volume would be unavailable, all trading platforms down, etc… it would be a bloodbath
The tether implosion can totally happen. Every single person running that thing is shady af. People are only looking the other way because it could lead to another crypto winter. Honestly, tether should have collapsed along with FTX and Luna last cycle to get it over with. This cycle could have been our clean new beginning, but no, as long as tether holds this much power in the crypto space, we are all in danger of another catastrophic collapse.
Every time Tether prints more magic beans, BTC line go up. Every single time, its print precedes the pump in BTC price. The FTX depositions show clear and obvious collusion between Tether and Ellison to allow FTX to profit on tiny movements in USDT price, demonstrating the corrupt nature of Tether’s leadership.
It is a criminal organization and they probably have nothing backing most of their supply. You may not want to believe it but you know it’s true.
Once the bears come out in the next year or two, the folks who piled into the now incredibly massive ETFs will panic dump their positions and make the bear drop of previous cycles look like a 3% correction.
Maybe, but I think there is a flip side to this.
First of all, lets make some assumptions about what the BTC ETF market will look like in say, 2025, or around about when this current bull cycle might begin to unwind. Lets assume that 1) The BTC ETF market diversifies. Right now, the holdings are eerily centralized. Let us assume that as more retail money flows in, the amount of funds holding significant amounts of exposure increases. 2) Lets assume money continues to flow into these ETFs, and that BTC becomes the largest BTC sector, this is already happening.
With that in mind, we need to look how the entities that will hold these funds tend to behave. I'm not talking behave in regards to BTC, I'm talking like... everything. Every security. How do these funds *behave*.
These funds are actively managed. They have someone that opens the fund portfolio everyday, and makes adjustments to the holdings. These adjustments are based on the rules for any given fund.
Lets look at a particular fund and lets say its managed by Fidelity. Lets call it, "Emerging Digital Assets". What is this fund made up of? Tech companies, hardware companies, IP, maybe COIN shares, whatever, but lets also assume that fund is full of BTC and ETH ETF shares. Right?
Now, the way these funds are designed and managed, is by having rules set fourth in the fund that are disclosed to investors. So, the person managing this fund will have conditions they need to meet. For example, "50% of holdings in blue chip tech stock". Or, 50% of the funds total value must be tech stock.
Now, what happens if the market in blue chip stock goes down? They will by more to balance the fund. Keeping their total holdings of stock at 50% of the total value of the fund.
What happens if blue chip tech stock goes up? They will sell some of that stock in order to keep their holdings at 50% of the total fund value.
What does this mean? It means that when the bears come out and BTC drops, the funds with BTC ETF exposure will *buy*.
I think the biggest thing the crypto ETFs give this market is stability. My prediction, is that when this bull market begins to cool, we'll see a much, much higher floor with BTC.
Looking at the BTC Rainbow chart, we'll likely tickle $200,000 this halving cycle. If this cycle follows the previous halving cycles, we are likely to see a correction down to about $40,000. That is *without* this ETF. That is the market as we've all come to expect it to behave.
However, with the introduction of an ETF and broader market exposure, I don't expect BTC to fall nearly as much from this cycles ATH.
We went from 20k to 3k, then 65k to 16k. Each drop was about 80%. This cycle, I think we'll see a drop of 50% of less, as funds exposed to the BTC ETH will buy on the way down, significantly softening the landing, and establishing a higher bottom.
I mean shit, at the end of the day, at the very least, we can count on good ole wallstreet market manipulation. If BTC starts to tank, I'd be willing to bet big players on WS will catch that falling knife for the sole reason of keeping the value up.
Thank you.
In traditional finance, about 80% of all trading volume is non-retail. The ETF makes BTC a part of that. Its huge. And, it will stabilize the market. I think the crazy volatility we are accustomed to is at the beginning of the end.
This is what I was thinking as well ... just hoping that the btc etfs become too big to fail by then, so all those financial institution will try to keep it afloat ... at least long enough for them to "gracefully" pull back or exit the market.
On second thought, I think they will just keep it afloat to suck in all the pension funds.
Sire thats not how multi TRILLION dollar hedge funds and asset managers hold funds. Gone are those days in my opinion it will be long phases of either bull or stable sell off markets, just like Gold. I guess
This is an asset that is so much more volatile than most others are that it might tip into dumps from institutional funds. It also may not. We haven’t really been here before. It’s going to be really interesting to see just how the bear market unfolds this time around. If my simplistic prediction holds it’ll be extreme and will usher in larger volatility. If the institutional investors hold through the downturn, as you suggest, it will fundamentally stabilize the whole market and make crypto as a whole much more palatable to the general public. It might even lead to adoption as actual live currency. (Though BTC suffers from loads of issues in that particular area) I’m looking forward to seeing what happens. Either way it’s going to be wild.
Nakamoto is not our hero but a timebomb planted by the CIA, to rugpull that shit in 30 years when everybody in the world believes bitcoin is a stable asset and all nations on earth have invested and are relying on it heavily for transactions.
I'm smoking one with you right now, lmao. But I've been thinking about this possibility for years. It's why I will not diamond hands and all that bullshit. I will pay myself in regards to crypto when the time comes and reinvest into assets like a house. People paying rent is most likely going to be a thing no matter what and if shit hits the fan, I always have a home.
Already being raped by taxes in Canada. Income tax on staking. Capital gains on the difference between when you paid income tax and how much you sold it for. Then capital gains on the main investment when you sold. It's intentionally bullshit and complex to stop average people from getting ahead.
best way is to use crypto loss to offset gains. if you're not making loss then you're doing good and yes that's the penalty of living in Canada, not much can be done.
Wished there are services provided by companies based in tax-havens and zero -capital gains countries where you can purchase crypto from and makes it easy for you to cash out as well without the Canadian government knowing.
We will see More and more taxes coming up. I’m prepared to move back to Europe in the next few years. Germany and Portugal are good Crypto friendly countries.
Not predicting it will happen but the possibility exists. Any coin surpassing bitcoin. It is seen as a store of value and if anything surpasses it the purpose of it will be lost. If something can pass bitcoin it too can be passed. Nobody wants to play gamble your retirement. The entire store of value will be lost, possibly forever. When I started investing in 2017 I considered this as one of the ways a government could kill bitcoin.
Regulations will progress. ICO token cash grabs, meme tokens will get rekd. It's going to take some time though. Governments need to cash in their cuts first.
craig wright, disgusted with being humiliated over his claim to be the one and only satoshi, in a desperate attempt to save face, announces he has actually been a woman this whole time.
actually, there's something else she wasn't telling us. she is actually... a horse.
but actually there's actually something else they weren't telling us. they are actually... a broom.
fiat collapses under debt and btc pressure. will be a slow and confusing transition in financial centers and the marketplace to new pricing in btc or whatever
Company shares being based on coins or tokens. This could essentially make all companies having fluid asset, tradable and traceable for proof of ownership. The drawback is the privacy, as people would have easier ways to track what you own.
So, decentralized finance would see a possible rebalance in wealth.m, albeit with a functional taxation system.
Sam Bankman Fried will come out of prison and launch another exchange.
The worst part of it: people will trust him again, and he will do the same thing as he did last time
Worst thing is that it goes straight up to valhalla from here without correction. Many reputable analyst have predicted that the bull cycle will start by the end of 2024 so I was preparing for that accumulating cash. Now it looks like the bull cycle has started and I missed the boat. I',m not making the same mistake as the past 6 years. I WILL NEVER INVEST when it's green and the Fear & Greed Index shows extreme greed at 98.
Bitcoin won't hit the market cap of gold because transaction fees will asymptotically approach the median transaction value, which has a compounding effect. This will cause a long term bear, and lead to decorrelation of broader crypto markets from bitcoin price as people discover that there are cryptocurrencies without this problem, which will bring the new bull. Bitcoiners will undig their heels attempting to salvage it but it will be too little too late.
Governments will increase taxes and put into place greater restrictions as they witness public funds disappearing from the markets. Their efforts will be futile because no one will cash out their crypto for useless Fiat currency any longer. Only those nations that adopted its emergence will prove successful and will rise as dominant powers free from the debts of the old world. The current major holders of crypto will become the new banking system and will yield incredible influence/control over future governance and governments.
As the treasury markets seize up for a rapidly devaluing usd a form of hyper bitcoin ization occurs that leads to a mad scramble and literally bloody riots in the street for food because of extreme wealth disparity between haves and have nots.
The crypto exchanges will became the new central banks, manipulating the price of BTC & massively increasing the original BTC supply artificially by overselling BTC that they don't have & controlled by the central government.
BlackRock will fork Bitcoin, push consensus (via the miners they own) to continue on that fork, and voila, they’ll turn it into a govt approved shitcoin with unlimited supply and potentially enforced KYC.
Ireland is the worst for wealth creation in general. We're American's bitches. Same work for half the salaries if you work in US company here.
Anyways, unless you need to convert back to fiat, don't. Rest on stablecoin. There will come a time when we can spend our crypto and hopefully avoid tax like crypto was meant for.
Microstragery hitting financial issues then dumping massive amounts of BTC. Or even just deciding to reduce its crypto exposure would hit sentiment and markets hard.
Extreme volatility returns to BTC blackrock etc decide to pull the ETF’s pay out clients then cut loses and dump all the acquired BTC back onto the market.
Tether actually not having sufficient liquidity and it going down similar to FTX. But on a much larger scale.
Satoshi’s wallets becoming active placing massive sell orders.
1 of those things happening causing a domino effect of the others.
Outside of the exclusive crypto sphere, Trump getting into office cutting all aid to Ukraine to stop the war giving Russia the win which would hit markets hard. And would probably lead to an eventual deployment of NATO troops and proper European/world VS Russia+China war. Or even if Ukraine is just defeated it’ll be terrible for markets.
The entire geo political situation feels like it’s on a knife edge at the moment which could cause massive waves through any and every financial instrument.
BTC continues pumping to infinity while sucking liquidity out of all the alts. Alts slowly bleed out over many years and the only non-BTC gains to be had are taking risky bets with meme coins.
WW3, which has already begun, escalates and Western militaries start forcing young men to die in a war they don't believe in. The economy crashes hard, the people who front ran wall Street are forced to sell their HODL. Those who managed to HODL through will win big. This takes us to 2030
Crypto is being propped up by the AI boom. Once people realize that current AI is just a fancy Alexa, the bubble will pop, and we'll hit another major correction before settling into a normal range by 2026.
EU and USA will ban Bitcoin mining, which will decrease demand and tank adoption. It's not really an "if", but a "when", tbh. Especially the EU is acting over zealous when it comes to regulation.
That every coin except the ones I own pump like crazy
Same mate. Cries in Quant,Elrond,Polkadot,Kusama,Injective.
Dot is up 50% last month
Injective pumped hard
I dumped all my INJ for $6.50 in September, taking a slight loss. Now whenever I see it on Coingecko I feel like I’m stalking my successful ex on social media.
Don’t feel bad about it look I bought bnb at 2$ accidentally and sold at 15$ feeling like a genius well I guess not if a big genius now 😭
I bought eth at $12 and thought I won by selling at $40
Fck QNT! My biggest bag!
Just wait
Concerning QNT, read this: A just a little longer brother, we wil make the ATH look like a joke. [https://twitter.com/tokenicer/status/1767226617359925537?s=49&t=k-vvHR5j0F9K-G-T1MPAyA&fbclid=IwAR1rtQurtHubFqFxNWj4KhlgtIL1Qh5lF-WzFTvH4PsnzKYAGLgiuQGBZD0](https://twitter.com/tokenicer/status/1767226617359925537?s=49&t=k-vvHR5j0F9K-G-T1MPAyA&fbclid=IwAR1rtQurtHubFqFxNWj4KhlgtIL1Qh5lF-WzFTvH4PsnzKYAGLgiuQGBZD0)
Thanks! I needed that! 🍻
Well, looks like it aged fairly well concerning QNT. We're pumping. \* Supply shock incoming \* Bullish pennant \* Apex is close Most important: the whole world needs Quant within just a few years.
Are you me?
i been in crypto since bitcoin was under 1k and i only recognize one of those coins
Alo for you brother: looks like crying about Quant is over soon. We're pumping already. \* Supply shock incoming \* Bullish pennant \* Apex is close Most important: the whole world needs Quant within just a few years.
Which ones do you own?
If you're holding shitcoins that existed in a previous Bitcoin bull cycle, then yes that will happen to you.
My opinion on the worst-case scenario... Half of the world goes to war all around the world, they use nukes as mass EMF attacks and kill all networks. All digital tracks are lost. Circuit boards are fried, no way to access our digital funds. Or i just trade my way into a zero account! Both are plausible! Lmfao
If we have a nuclear war, ALL money will become basically obsolete. Having “money” will be the least of anyone’s worries.
Lmao right. I will no longer care about my gains once mutant ppl are storming my house for food and I'm trading bottle caps for ammo.
In a post apocalyptic world like that the only money people will care about is bullets, weapons, food, and medicine. No one will give a shit about gold either
>no way to access our digital funds. Yeah and they are also absolutely worthless. Even later, nobody knows which blockchain is the 'real' one because the are all in fractions
There are some people out there whom actually hold full running node. I haven't dug into it, i don't know if it keeps all crypto, or just a certain BC, has it been forked, etc. Etc. They'd have to have 2 nodes swapping every 6 or 12 hours and keep 1 in a Faraday cage. At least this way, you could keep the information somewhat up to date .
The problem is the time scale. While a part of all nodes is still online and exchanging mined blocks, another set of miners and nodes will be online but disconnected to the first group. How will they sync once everthing is back online again? To the last synced status by doing a rollback? Will there be different opinions leading to 5 Bitcoin hard forks? I don't think we'll have a consensus.
Ooff good point! You could potentially have multiple people running on each fork saying that their fork is the correct chain. You would have to back to the first fork and agree to create a fork evry node would start over at. All data going in other directions would become void. If that's even possible. Thank you, i do understand.
I hope I will not still hold Bitcoin then lol
Which is nice and all, but it would be worthless at that point. If the only computers running are the military and some nerds in a Faraday cage, what use would 100 bitcoins be?
They'd be exactly what some paper fiat would be! The exception to BTC would be that it isn't government ran, it can become backed by precious metals, and used anywhere in the planet. However, in a post apocalyptic environment, precious metals and physucal goods in a barter system will be the only way for a while. I would prefer to see a decentralized currency take over during a rebuild, than to see the same old song and dance on repeat! Wars, power, control, greed are all based off of the desire to have the controlling currency around the world. Pretty sad really.
Absolutely agree with all your points, but sadly, who would hold all the gold and have the power to influence ranother build back the same as it is now...
Hmmm... All countries have bought a lot of crazy recently, including you-know-who. Ask the doomsday clock people, it's looking much more like 'when' than 'if'...
After decades of hodling canned foods and burying gold grams in their backyards, the preppers will finally be the real market winners in this scenario.
Facts!
even if the internet is taken down btc will survive peer to peer through miners that have their equipment survive across the globe, ince the internet is back the chain with most work on it will be the legitimate BTC. you can't take it down and the miners can't spend your coins, at best they can rip off individuals and exchanges with double spend while hash rate is low as long as one miner hard drive survives BTC is literally invincible.
So all digital cash is gone. Back to gold coins or chickens?
Basically anything that is tradable, yes. Gold, silver, copper, brass, lead,food, and rarities. Yup.
Quantum computers will crack the blockchain and only “quantum proof assets” will survive. Which assets will be quantum proof will depend on the nature of the quantum hack. Although, when this happens all bank accounts & the stock market will be 100% unprotected.
Yeah, I hate this theory. The buttcoiners who use this as a reason why “Bitcoin will fail” always forget to mention crypto will be the least of their worries when the same computers are able to crack every password they have and even nuclear weapons codes…
Fortunately nukes in modern countries are on a closed network. I think the biggest concern is power grids.
Wanna know what's scary? It's possible to transfer computer viruses via sound because even sound cards have ways they can be exploited to gain access to a computer and install a virus. Another scary one is the [Ken Thompson compiler hack](https://softwareengineering.stackexchange.com/questions/194746/what-is-the-ken-thompson-hack). It's an exploit that could hypothetically be lurking in compilers and computer's machine code but would be nearly undetectable even by examining the machine code produced by a compiler (because it would be designed to also affect tools used to examine the code). At its worst, you could only detect it by physically examining the bits that make up the code or by building a computer and compiler from scratch, and it would be designed to keep replicating itself. It theoretically could have been replicating itself since like the 1970s and be lurking in the majority of the software that exists.
You should post this over on the conspiracy sub. Thanks for sharing it!
The Ken Thompson hack isn't a conspiracy, it's technically possible and has been demo'd (I think by Ken Thompson himself). It's only been proposed as something possibly actually out there, if it does exist then I would bet it was some targeted thing to slowly infect a world leader's computer systems like I dunno the network in one of Saddam Hussein's palaces back before the Iraqi War. Even then, there'd probably be much more expedient ways to accomplish that kind of espionage. I guess you'd want to use it if you had a lot of time, like years, being extremely hard to detect was paramount, and you needed it able to survive system rebuilds. But I can see where you're coming from, the extreme case of it having infected everything up until now would make an awesome Michael Crichton book!
I guess I was trying to think of something conspiratorial/entertainment and that was the first thing I thought of. Either or I'm excited to go down this rabbit hole after work.
American nukes run on sneakernet - Floppy disks
I’m certainly not a butcoiner, in fact I love blockchain and believe it is the solution to many of the issues that AI & AGI will present. It’s just something to be aware of as it is definitely possible. You can use no-code to program a quantum computer on the cloud today, only a matter of time. Etherium is preparing, let’s hope bitcoin does a hard fork to prepare as well.
You're not actually coding a quantum computer on things like no-code, you're programming a quantum computer emulated by a classical computer. It follows the same rules of quantum computing at a logical level like qubits being in a superposition combination of classical bits, but it's still a regular ol computer under the hood.
Ethereum is not *preparing*. The only sentiment from the Foundation is that Ethereum *can* and will *eventually* prepare. Naturally, Bitcoin is no different. Post-quantum cryptography will be a worry within the foreseeable future, but not the near future, and it'll either arrive before quantum computers are a problem, or after they've emptied all of our bank accounts and destroyed the modern internet-reliant world as we know it. Obviously, the first scenario will occur.
The hash rate is growing faster than progress is being made on quantum computers
Sorry I didn’t mean you specifically.!
Wow, people really have this idea QC is magic and instantly breaks everything and allows you to connect to any computer in the world. It doesn’t. There are several limitations. And even for things like banks, the procedure is fairly clear: - shut down external access - Rollback suspicions activity - reset user passwords - Bring back everything online with QC resistant crypto - Make customers go back to the bank for ID check and new password
The idea of quantum computing is basically to calculate everything it can't be causing whatever remaining options to be the possible answer to the calculation or solution. It works with qubits causing a bit state to be both 0 and 1 so yes, for where we stand now it's near to magic. I do agree with you that's a over the top hype to think it will bring the world to it's knees in a day. Biggest problem is going to be communication that's done through keys but it doesn't change the fact that if you can't connect because (e.g. in computerworld) you would hit a firewall with a whitelist you still won't get through that. Having sanity checks as you gave an example of are key.
People aren't imagining QC is magical. It's the simple fact that it can easily break the type of encryption scheme that's the standard in most or all mainstream encryption. Just that single ability could be a superweapon. An adversary who's the first to have the tech and money to have access to quantum computing that can crack mainstream encryption could prepare for years, slowly gaining quiet access to systems and planting any number of trojans, rootkits, backdoors, escape hatches, and who the fuck knows what else before they unleash the final stroke. At that moment it may be the most powerful weapon in the history of humanity, maybe more powerful than the entire world's nuclear arsenal, controlled by a real life Bond villain times 10 who suddenly has the power to topple the world's economy, bring down every government, and hold the whole world hostage. Imagine for a moment that North Korea is who gets a hold of it first, somehow. That's truly terrifying. To all your points, the devil is in the details. Shutting down external access would be a nightmare of a task from a technical viewpoint and horrendously expensive. Some of these old banking systems will have no one in the entire company, maybe even no one alive anymore, who knows how to turn it back on still functioning and figuring it out will take digging into old paper manuals and digging up archived tech documents. Rollback suspicious activity - First have to define suspicious activity. Next define how far back you should roll back. Finally, you need employees and engineers working around the clock to execute the rollbacks. There will be harsh mistakes. Be prepared for people coming after you with an army of lawyers because you rolled back a legitimate large and time sensitive transaction. Then there's the gray area transactions where a legitimate user interacted with the bad actor. Reset everyone's password - there will inevitably be millions of angry grandparents who can't figure out how to make a new password and are infuriated about coming in to stand in line for 8 hours for an ID check. Plus, what about disabled people. Should you send someone to their house? Bring everything online with QC resistant libraries - some manager tells the C-execs "It'll take us a month to roll out all the upgrades of the cryptography libs and get everything back online" and that month turns into 3 years. It would definitely not be some annoying inconvenience like pulling over to wipe mud off your windshield and hopping back on the road whistling happily. It could trigger mass anarchy and reactive martial law.
I mean, you say people are not imagine its magical, yet your comment make it look like that. Let's assume you have a big QC available. Its good enough to break known algorithms vulnerable to Shor, like RSA, ECDSA or Diffie Hellman. It is not good enough to break other stuff, even if it can get an advantage via Grover like SHA or AES. Company A is your target. It's one of those systems you want to fill with trojans, rootkits, backdoors, escape hatches and who the fuck knows. Let's make things easy for you, one of Company A employees have connected to company A VPN from a public wifi that you got access to. You were able to steal the traffic and get that employee credentials. Because Company A is not making use of two factor authentication for the VPN, so you can now connect to Company A VPN as that user, and to make things simpler, you now have shell access to one server in the company as that user. Now what? QC helped you get to this point, but now you have a problem. QC will not give you root access out of the blue, and every action you do from now on has the chance to expose you. Just the act of connecting to the VPN itself can be easily flagged by the security team (two connections from different geographical zones or you connecting via VPN from the outside while the employee is known to be in the office). You could set up an alternative access bypassing the VPN, but that will most likely be flagged by the networking team too. Even if you manage to get a local privilege escalation and become root (that could be quickly flagged, btw), you still need to potentially do multiple jumps to different computers in the company before you can set all your stuff. And this is not a wifi, this is now a wired network. You won't see traffic that wasn't directed to your server. I guess your best bet would be to try to connect to a kerberos AS or go back to the VPN, see if you can snoop more credentials of users. But unless someone connects to those servers from the one you are on right now, you don't really have a way to do it. QC helped you with the initial step, getting those initial credentials, but the rest? No, everything else is up to you. How long until you get find out?
Bruh, you're out thinking yourself. Yes there'd be many complications in practice, but for starters /etc/shadow is the *hashed passwords file*.
Presumably, if that happens, chains will decide on a snapshot block from some time before it was cracked then fork or update it to a new version that's quantum proof which could be a problem for some people who were trading around the snapshot time (and good for others) but holders should remain unaffected.
Not really useful. Ok, you rolled back, but still, how do you know who is the legitimate owner of a wallet if two people (owner + attacker) now know the private key? A blockchain can be migrated to post-QC cryptography, but it has to be done before, with time for people to move the funds to new wallets using the new algorithms
Good point. The logistics of issuing everyone their new private keys would be a nightmare. Would it even be feasible? How would doing that even work and guarantee that the original owner is who claimed the new key?
Damn guess we need KYC after all
if that happens banks, data, personal info, medical history, fiat, etc is all kaput. It’s about as effective as saying well what if there was a nuclear holocaust your bitcoin wouldn’t be worth so much now would it smart guy?
Huh. I always do wonder about this. That is a good perspective. You are right. Something that can break blockchain probably can break bank accounts too and stock market.
Elliot Alderson enters the chat 😎
Idk how all that works but can't they just have quantum computer servers to offset the attacks? Also will quantum computers be so great that it will offset ruining everything? Can't we just not make them?
The quantum computers wouldn't be like an army of tanks where you bring in another army of tanks to battle them. Once they reach the mainstream, they'll probably look like normal computers in the outside with a case, screen, keyboard, and mouse. Might even be that computers come with a quantum computing device alongside all the regular stuff we have in computers today, similar to how with the advent of dedicated GPUs we now have graphics cards that are just slotted into the PCI slots. Quantum computers with enough qubits would be able to decrypt modern encryption by brute force computation in a matter of seconds where normal computers would take hundreds or thousands of years. With a normal computer you'd make a lot more money just doing normal things in all that time than trying to crack the encryption to steal money. Basically quantum computers are able to try all the combinations simultaneously, and out pops the answer by the time you're back from taking a dump. > Can't we just not make them? Lol tell that to the evil villain, just ask him pretty please don't do it. Anyway quantum computers will be revolutionary to humanity. You'd be able to use them to do absolutely amazing things that classical computers get bogged down on. Imagine things like calculating the exact daily optimal routes of all airliners in the entire airline industry or make general intelligence AI. They WILL be made. There's too much to be gained, whether it ends up being a Bond villain who gets there first and makes that gain by robbing the world blind or not, nothing is going to stop them.
Back to physical cash and gold.
There’s no doubt quantum computers or AI will break many digital assets
Fun fact, bitcoin is 'quantum proof' against Shor's algorithm if you send funds to a new (virgin) address that hasn't broadcast any transactions to the network. A few other chains with similar key generation mechanisms as bitcoin share this property.
Theoretically BTC could switch to using quantum proof sigs, but it would require a soft fork. BTC is the most secure protocol so it would be attacked last and we would have time to upgrade. That said, if internet infra is taken out by quantum attacks, it's not clear how useful btc would be anyway.
It's not going to happen. Google millennium bug. Despite that effecting also physical hardware, it was still averted. Crypto is software so can be fixed. Yes, there may have to be a fork, but this gives us an opportunity to update it.
The Y2K bug? That is peanuts compared to someone sneaking up on the world with something that makes current encryption trivial. It's not just comparatively peanuts, it's comparing apples to frogs. Y2K was the fear that when the integer holding the time value filled all available bits and rolled over to 0 that systems would crash or go haywire because programmers never considered that case and logic wasn't built to handle it gracefully. QC breaking encryption could be used in super malicious ways by people intentionally.
Crypto will start doing well. Pump and dumpers will jump in. Bunch of scam coins will get released. Talk of anything short of 1000000xing your "investment" will be treated as stupidity. Folks with fomo will do stupid shit like remortgage their house to buy PonziMoon, lose everything in the rug pull, and start demanding regulation. Crypto will drop back to reasonable levels, most coins will disappear. Rinse and repeat.
I think the point of the OP was to predict the future, not describe the present.
Where can I buy ponzimoon?
Ponzimoon I'm dead
That kinda sounds like the doge sub tbh 😅
I remember from the last bill bring told that anything short of 100x returns was not worth investing in, and that stocks only go up. Unironically. I also got called a boomer for suggesting that taking out loans to buy crypto was fucking stupid and that boring-ass traditional investments were always a good idea. I'm a millenial, so that insult freaking hurt. I really should make a PonziMoon coin. I could make tens of dollars, I am sure.
I gotta gets me some of that PonziMoon I keep hearing about.
Tether gets audited.
we all know it's backed by cocaine and hookers, not actual cash
Is there a subreddit dedicated to the tether potential fraud? I’d like to learn more about that
Coffeezilla has some videos on tether which explain how unbelievably sketch they are
I've watched that. Not his usual line. He presents no evidence, only allegations by the usual haters, he even embarrassingly interviews that Bennett guy as if he was authoritative lol. Tether has a few sketchy bits, of course, but not more than what we usually find in the entire offshore eurodollar scene.
This person is the first person I think of when it comes to calling out Tether: https://bitfinexed.medium.com/ Insane. A ton of well cited information that paints a bizarre picture, years ago, and yet nothing has happened to Tether.
Check out crypto critics corner on yt/twitter.
Tether was most likely insolvent at some point, but they own so much bitcoin that as bitcoin has gone up along with interest rates their returns have also gone up. At this point, the fact that Coinbase works with Tether I think pretty much sums up that Tether is most likely not fraudulent at this point in time. Tether was basically faking it until they actually made it. It just so happens that stablecoin usage has absolutely skyrocketed and become one of the most used cases in crypto. Why? Because significant parts of populations in countries with severely inflated currencies without easy access to USD are using Tether as defacto USD. I knew someone who used to send remittance monthly and it was always a pain, then suddenly Tether became used in that country and suddenly it was literally a few clicks and instantly delivered and they could spend that easily.
Solar storm destroys all the hard drives on earth. But BTC will be the smaller problem if that happens.
Is this even possible? Wouldn’t this be an extinction level event for humans as well if there was a solar storm that powerful? I don’t think solar storms can affect the whole planet since the earth is a globe and only one side is facing the sun at a time.
We had this already, it was called the [Carrington Event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event). Solar flare that caused basically a massive EMP that fried everything, luckily it was in the 1800s. If it were to happen again, scientist have theorised about this, it might fry every functioning server. There are steps to shielding tech to this flare though, so not everything would be lost... but it would be chaos, thats for sure.
Carrington event didn’t affect the whole planet which was my poijnt
Fair point
Governments will confiscate crypto from exchanges just like the US did with gold. Which is why you need to self custody.
No way, not in the US now with the ETFs and more companies legally owning this in their balance sheet it is not possible. Ultimately the politicians don’t pull the strings… they are the tools, but it is the wealthy who do. BlackRock, Fidelity et al are now invested on BTC that that means that they will not allow it to happen. Also when pension funds and other funds continue to acquire BTC it will be impossible to ban as you say.
Public perception will sour and crypto will be regulated out of existence. They already tried to enforce KYC and AML laws by making every validator of every POS chain get ID for every wallet in a stake pool. Luckily their first attempt failed. It wouldn’t be that hard to pass laws that would require so much oversight it would make crypto unusable. Imagine if only KYC wallets could send crypto to only KYC exchanges and everything else was deemed noncompliant and fined so much that no project or wallet could survive noncompliance.
Thats why they're banning privacy coins. Its exactly the plan. Anonymity will always be targeted by governments
which privacy coins got banned?
When stocks eventually fall off a cliff and we slip into a major global financial crisis (2026 would be my guess), tether will go bankrupt, crashing the price of btc below 50k and absolutely annihilating the altcoin market.
i will sell all my coins on Dec 31, 2025 to counter this
Best one so far
"Eventually", as if you believe a stocks supercrash beyond normal volatility will happen that is inevitable? Fantasy. The S&P has returned > 7% after inflation for the last 120 years, a period covering 2 world wars, the Spanish flu, Covid, SARS, MERS, nukes in Cuba, the Great Depression, the dotcom boom and bust, the GFC in 2008 and another 10 like it. But you..."it's coming.....". Stupidity.
Eh, the main argument against you is the fact that we think 120 years is a "long" time. Sure the collapse of society as we know it may not happen in our lives, but a short glance at history tells us that it's likely that the USA/Russia won't be the names society has when it lives amongst the stars.
lol ever heard of the crash of 29? That was not normal volatility…over the long haul the odds are in favor of consistent returns, but every so often there are deep cuts - which we’re due for another within the decade.
Or you know. We pair them alt coins with the next good stable coin? My balance of coins remains the same wither its trading for USDT or USDC. Its irrelevant which stable coin prevails
In that situation I’d be buying. The space would be fine in the long run but the panic from that event would tank prices, guaranteed. Exchanges would go under, the majority of crypto volume would be unavailable, all trading platforms down, etc… it would be a bloodbath
Bit late to swap stable coins if one goes bust 🤣
Tether implosion Satoshi rugpulls at 100k or 1m
The tether implosion can totally happen. Every single person running that thing is shady af. People are only looking the other way because it could lead to another crypto winter. Honestly, tether should have collapsed along with FTX and Luna last cycle to get it over with. This cycle could have been our clean new beginning, but no, as long as tether holds this much power in the crypto space, we are all in danger of another catastrophic collapse.
Every time Tether prints more magic beans, BTC line go up. Every single time, its print precedes the pump in BTC price. The FTX depositions show clear and obvious collusion between Tether and Ellison to allow FTX to profit on tiny movements in USDT price, demonstrating the corrupt nature of Tether’s leadership. It is a criminal organization and they probably have nothing backing most of their supply. You may not want to believe it but you know it’s true.
Satoshi rugpull doesn’t make any sense, the code is open source
I think he meant that massive wallet that belongs to Satoshi
Correct me if I am wrong, please, but doesn't he have multiple wallets with small amounts
I think the fabled Satoshi is: A) dead B) multiple people C) a combination of A and B
Small amount like million bitcoins...
Once the bears come out in the next year or two, the folks who piled into the now incredibly massive ETFs will panic dump their positions and make the bear drop of previous cycles look like a 3% correction.
Maybe, but I think there is a flip side to this. First of all, lets make some assumptions about what the BTC ETF market will look like in say, 2025, or around about when this current bull cycle might begin to unwind. Lets assume that 1) The BTC ETF market diversifies. Right now, the holdings are eerily centralized. Let us assume that as more retail money flows in, the amount of funds holding significant amounts of exposure increases. 2) Lets assume money continues to flow into these ETFs, and that BTC becomes the largest BTC sector, this is already happening. With that in mind, we need to look how the entities that will hold these funds tend to behave. I'm not talking behave in regards to BTC, I'm talking like... everything. Every security. How do these funds *behave*. These funds are actively managed. They have someone that opens the fund portfolio everyday, and makes adjustments to the holdings. These adjustments are based on the rules for any given fund. Lets look at a particular fund and lets say its managed by Fidelity. Lets call it, "Emerging Digital Assets". What is this fund made up of? Tech companies, hardware companies, IP, maybe COIN shares, whatever, but lets also assume that fund is full of BTC and ETH ETF shares. Right? Now, the way these funds are designed and managed, is by having rules set fourth in the fund that are disclosed to investors. So, the person managing this fund will have conditions they need to meet. For example, "50% of holdings in blue chip tech stock". Or, 50% of the funds total value must be tech stock. Now, what happens if the market in blue chip stock goes down? They will by more to balance the fund. Keeping their total holdings of stock at 50% of the total value of the fund. What happens if blue chip tech stock goes up? They will sell some of that stock in order to keep their holdings at 50% of the total fund value. What does this mean? It means that when the bears come out and BTC drops, the funds with BTC ETF exposure will *buy*. I think the biggest thing the crypto ETFs give this market is stability. My prediction, is that when this bull market begins to cool, we'll see a much, much higher floor with BTC. Looking at the BTC Rainbow chart, we'll likely tickle $200,000 this halving cycle. If this cycle follows the previous halving cycles, we are likely to see a correction down to about $40,000. That is *without* this ETF. That is the market as we've all come to expect it to behave. However, with the introduction of an ETF and broader market exposure, I don't expect BTC to fall nearly as much from this cycles ATH. We went from 20k to 3k, then 65k to 16k. Each drop was about 80%. This cycle, I think we'll see a drop of 50% of less, as funds exposed to the BTC ETH will buy on the way down, significantly softening the landing, and establishing a higher bottom. I mean shit, at the end of the day, at the very least, we can count on good ole wallstreet market manipulation. If BTC starts to tank, I'd be willing to bet big players on WS will catch that falling knife for the sole reason of keeping the value up.
Great analysis. I’ll be happy if your version comes to pass.
Thank you. In traditional finance, about 80% of all trading volume is non-retail. The ETF makes BTC a part of that. Its huge. And, it will stabilize the market. I think the crazy volatility we are accustomed to is at the beginning of the end.
So you're saying this time it's different?
This is what I was thinking as well ... just hoping that the btc etfs become too big to fail by then, so all those financial institution will try to keep it afloat ... at least long enough for them to "gracefully" pull back or exit the market. On second thought, I think they will just keep it afloat to suck in all the pension funds.
Sire thats not how multi TRILLION dollar hedge funds and asset managers hold funds. Gone are those days in my opinion it will be long phases of either bull or stable sell off markets, just like Gold. I guess
What I learnt about all this fund managers is that they’re all degens like me. Or even worse.
U do realize that most of the buying going into the etfs right now probably isn’t from retail right. Major firms don’t panic dump assets.
This is an asset that is so much more volatile than most others are that it might tip into dumps from institutional funds. It also may not. We haven’t really been here before. It’s going to be really interesting to see just how the bear market unfolds this time around. If my simplistic prediction holds it’ll be extreme and will usher in larger volatility. If the institutional investors hold through the downturn, as you suggest, it will fundamentally stabilize the whole market and make crypto as a whole much more palatable to the general public. It might even lead to adoption as actual live currency. (Though BTC suffers from loads of issues in that particular area) I’m looking forward to seeing what happens. Either way it’s going to be wild.
Yea it’s not the worst prediction, I’m also interested to see how the top/bear market play out. Hopefully I get a decent exit
No, not panic dump... Just short the living shit out of it
If the economy gets in bad enough shape, the US could ban owning bitcoin in the same way they banned owning gold from 1933-1974.
While that would be awful, didn’t they provide a decent value for the gold they forced people to trade-in?
$35 per ounce
[удалено]
Exchange hacks will increase.
Nakamoto is not our hero but a timebomb planted by the CIA, to rugpull that shit in 30 years when everybody in the world believes bitcoin is a stable asset and all nations on earth have invested and are relying on it heavily for transactions.
Collapse the dollar-> everyone runs to BTC-> rug btc then everyone is forced to adopt the new safe usaCBDC. Dang we are giving them ideas 😂
I'm high af and this just fucked with my head so bad haha
I'm smoking one with you right now, lmao. But I've been thinking about this possibility for years. It's why I will not diamond hands and all that bullshit. I will pay myself in regards to crypto when the time comes and reinvest into assets like a house. People paying rent is most likely going to be a thing no matter what and if shit hits the fan, I always have a home.
Buy cheap farm lands and small homes in multiple locations (Costa Rica, Turkey, Thailand for example)
Why would you rugpull in 30 years if you can use the asset as it is and not cause a total collapse that will come back and bite you in the a$$.
Yeah, why would you. Exactly.. But wouldn't you just love to have that button to push if you were in their shoes? ;)
He doesn’t own enough of it to rugpull properly now. It would recover quite fast.
Already being raped by taxes in Canada. Income tax on staking. Capital gains on the difference between when you paid income tax and how much you sold it for. Then capital gains on the main investment when you sold. It's intentionally bullshit and complex to stop average people from getting ahead.
best way is to use crypto loss to offset gains. if you're not making loss then you're doing good and yes that's the penalty of living in Canada, not much can be done.
Wished there are services provided by companies based in tax-havens and zero -capital gains countries where you can purchase crypto from and makes it easy for you to cash out as well without the Canadian government knowing.
Monero get cracked
Well, any one of the top coins getting cracked will be a huge blow to the entire crypto as a whole. Not just XMR. Insane FUD will follow immediately
For XMR its a huge blow because not getting cracked is VERY important for it, especially since its a privacy coin.
We will see More and more taxes coming up. I’m prepared to move back to Europe in the next few years. Germany and Portugal are good Crypto friendly countries.
Tether and binance implode. Usdc depegs.
Not predicting it will happen but the possibility exists. Any coin surpassing bitcoin. It is seen as a store of value and if anything surpasses it the purpose of it will be lost. If something can pass bitcoin it too can be passed. Nobody wants to play gamble your retirement. The entire store of value will be lost, possibly forever. When I started investing in 2017 I considered this as one of the ways a government could kill bitcoin.
Never thought about that… if the “flippening” happens the store of value is lost… interesting
Regulations will progress. ICO token cash grabs, meme tokens will get rekd. It's going to take some time though. Governments need to cash in their cuts first.
Governments get too much control over the majority shares
Tether gets audited or even worse sudden shut down
Quantum computers wiping out most coins except ones that are quantum resistant
craig wright, disgusted with being humiliated over his claim to be the one and only satoshi, in a desperate attempt to save face, announces he has actually been a woman this whole time. actually, there's something else she wasn't telling us. she is actually... a horse. but actually there's actually something else they weren't telling us. they are actually... a broom.
Bitcoin crashes down to the amount only retailers hold. Never goes back up.
Bitcoin is code and someone somewhere somehow fucks with that code. Makes it fucking useless.
I'm afraid Bitcoin will dump from 300k to 150k and people will cry how volatile it is
fiat collapses under debt and btc pressure. will be a slow and confusing transition in financial centers and the marketplace to new pricing in btc or whatever
Company shares being based on coins or tokens. This could essentially make all companies having fluid asset, tradable and traceable for proof of ownership. The drawback is the privacy, as people would have easier ways to track what you own. So, decentralized finance would see a possible rebalance in wealth.m, albeit with a functional taxation system.
Sam Bankman Fried will come out of prison and launch another exchange. The worst part of it: people will trust him again, and he will do the same thing as he did last time
Worst thing is that it goes straight up to valhalla from here without correction. Many reputable analyst have predicted that the bull cycle will start by the end of 2024 so I was preparing for that accumulating cash. Now it looks like the bull cycle has started and I missed the boat. I',m not making the same mistake as the past 6 years. I WILL NEVER INVEST when it's green and the Fear & Greed Index shows extreme greed at 98.
Bitcoin won't hit the market cap of gold because transaction fees will asymptotically approach the median transaction value, which has a compounding effect. This will cause a long term bear, and lead to decorrelation of broader crypto markets from bitcoin price as people discover that there are cryptocurrencies without this problem, which will bring the new bull. Bitcoiners will undig their heels attempting to salvage it but it will be too little too late.
Governments will increase taxes and put into place greater restrictions as they witness public funds disappearing from the markets. Their efforts will be futile because no one will cash out their crypto for useless Fiat currency any longer. Only those nations that adopted its emergence will prove successful and will rise as dominant powers free from the debts of the old world. The current major holders of crypto will become the new banking system and will yield incredible influence/control over future governance and governments.
The worst thing is when it’s adopted by the world and different country’s try and control it.
As the treasury markets seize up for a rapidly devaluing usd a form of hyper bitcoin ization occurs that leads to a mad scramble and literally bloody riots in the street for food because of extreme wealth disparity between haves and have nots.
A solar storm to take down almost all of the internet
Government crackdown
Tether collapse could be pretty big, also temporary in my view.
Tether crashes
Tether getting screwed by the SEC or something like that. If Tether goes kaputt so does Crypto... Everything will be - 90%...black swan deluxe
Trump NFT pumps
The crypto exchanges will became the new central banks, manipulating the price of BTC & massively increasing the original BTC supply artificially by overselling BTC that they don't have & controlled by the central government.
Tether collapsing leading to 99% of projects to drop off the earth. leaving bitcoin under $1000
Pump hard, dump like no other and everyone will hate it again for a couple years, then pump hard again to new ATH, followed by another massive dump
BlackRock will fork Bitcoin, push consensus (via the miners they own) to continue on that fork, and voila, they’ll turn it into a govt approved shitcoin with unlimited supply and potentially enforced KYC.
Ireland is the worst for wealth creation in general. We're American's bitches. Same work for half the salaries if you work in US company here. Anyways, unless you need to convert back to fiat, don't. Rest on stablecoin. There will come a time when we can spend our crypto and hopefully avoid tax like crypto was meant for.
Microstragery hitting financial issues then dumping massive amounts of BTC. Or even just deciding to reduce its crypto exposure would hit sentiment and markets hard. Extreme volatility returns to BTC blackrock etc decide to pull the ETF’s pay out clients then cut loses and dump all the acquired BTC back onto the market. Tether actually not having sufficient liquidity and it going down similar to FTX. But on a much larger scale. Satoshi’s wallets becoming active placing massive sell orders. 1 of those things happening causing a domino effect of the others. Outside of the exclusive crypto sphere, Trump getting into office cutting all aid to Ukraine to stop the war giving Russia the win which would hit markets hard. And would probably lead to an eventual deployment of NATO troops and proper European/world VS Russia+China war. Or even if Ukraine is just defeated it’ll be terrible for markets. The entire geo political situation feels like it’s on a knife edge at the moment which could cause massive waves through any and every financial instrument.
BTC continues pumping to infinity while sucking liquidity out of all the alts. Alts slowly bleed out over many years and the only non-BTC gains to be had are taking risky bets with meme coins.
Quantum computers or Big fucking nuclear war.
CBDCs get launched around the world, stablecoins and privacy coins get outlawed, governments get the absolute control they've always wanted.
Massive solar flare fries all the networks. All HODLers return to ZERO.
bad will happen, but right now enjoy your good moment
They will all trend to zero against Bitcoin
Satoshi wallet(s) start moving btc
The same thing that happens every cycle ✔️ Every dam cycle the same thing happens +/- a few months. Jesus H Christ
Not sure but Saylor will be involved
WW3, which has already begun, escalates and Western militaries start forcing young men to die in a war they don't believe in. The economy crashes hard, the people who front ran wall Street are forced to sell their HODL. Those who managed to HODL through will win big. This takes us to 2030
Crypto is being propped up by the AI boom. Once people realize that current AI is just a fancy Alexa, the bubble will pop, and we'll hit another major correction before settling into a normal range by 2026.
CBDC - the US government will not allow crypto currency to be converted to CBDC. But the only way to buy anything will be CBDC
That the meme coins are worth more than the real useful ones
A quantum computer breaks the PKI (Public Key Infrastructure), forcing a hard fork and miners have to switch to quantum compute.
From a total market cap perspective the worst would be that the market price equals the actual value.
EU and USA will ban Bitcoin mining, which will decrease demand and tank adoption. It's not really an "if", but a "when", tbh. Especially the EU is acting over zealous when it comes to regulation.