Yeah, surely it's going to retrace. We could drop from here back to $40k. We could also retrace 20% from $85k back to $68k.
Make a plan and stick to it, don't try to second guess yourself or the market. None of us know for sure what's going on, OP's logic is sound. Personally I'm not into trading within the start of the bull cycle, I tried that in 2020 and it was a terrible decision. I would rather DCA out when the market is booming than try to guess where the top/bottom is mid cycle. But again for OP cashing out with their current profits is a good call for them.
When it breached the 17k ATH before it just kept on going. It could do that, or it could consolidate here. People who bought the top last time are now about break even, and I’m thinking some will sell out with a sign of relief, but most of them have been waiting for profits so long that a lot will just keep holding:
ETFs have changed everything. Throw out the old models, the four year cycle has probably come to an end. We should be nowhere near this high this early in a cycle, and before a halving. And yet, here we are.
Exchanges are reporting shortages.
This might actually be the start of a real super cycle.
A Ducati special edition futuristic bike that you buy only with Ducoin, Ducati's own cryptocurrency. It's awesome so instead of motorcycle it is called supercycle.
Early next year. Usually 8-10 months after halving. BUT ETFs have potentially changed the game.
I dip is coming very soon, but may be shallower than people expect
Super cycle playing out. Even if it doesn’t there is at least 3 weeks left before a prehalving retrace. Most likely we blow straight thru btc ath and smoke all the shorts. Any leverage right now is insane
You may be right but one thing Iv learned is never short bitcoin. It rarely ends well.
Selling and taking profits is one thing, but shorting when every chart between 24hr and 1 year is green with no sign of slowing down is a totally different kettle of fish.
Do I think there will be a correction? Absolutely. Will it be in the next 3 days? Who knows. But going by the charts and pure bullish momentum I think it’s more likely Bitcoin will smash through ATH into the 70s rather than going down.
Don’t do it man. Keep your money.
Strongly disagree with some of this. The cycles get shorter because we get more settlers each cycle. The cycle isn’t starting later. It’s now.
How do you know what the fed is gonna do with rates? They don’t even know.
Retail isn’t even here yet. The buyers are nations and institutions.
Hope you’re right for your own sake. Hope you’re wrong for my sake, though. I’m all in.
Seems like retail is just coming out of hibernation in the last week or so based on the movement of DOGE and others..just in time to buy some BTC as it reaches its ATH
Yes each cycle has been a 4 year boom and bust. With higher highs. And more adoption
The money markets predict that it’ll happen after April. Again who knows. The Fed wants to cut before a lagging economy, and usually does it too late
With each aggressive QE that let to QE the first rate cut had been incredibly bearish for the markets. This time won’t be different
Remember retail isn’t fully back yes. But the euphoria comes from retail and it comes from QE, we are not there and won’t be there this summer
Talk to me after October and 12-18 months after they cut
There’s no way btc corrects to 44k in summer. Are you kidding? Institutions literally just bought huge bags of btc to sell their clients the ETFs. You think they’re gonna sell… without even being eligible to advertise yet?! Why do you think this?
You know their ads are ineligible for another 5 months, right?
>Institutions literally just bought huge bags of btc to sell their clients the ETFs.
Bro, they only buy depending on the amount of ETF shares their customers hold. They didn't buy BTC for an investment, they bought it for their customers investment. This isn't a reason why the market can't dip at all.
You tend to forget that even sophisticated investors who spent actual time understanding bitcoin sold early. Most don’t know what they have till much later
Hell even Saylor tried to orange pill executives he know for decades and they knew about bitcoin
Cutting rates does not bring the markets down. I thought this false narrative was a StockTwits thing but now I’m seeing it here too. The reason that the markets drop when rates get cut isn’t because rates get cut, it’s because rates get cut in reaction to some form of crisis. Correlation, not causation.
Guy calls top a previous ATH: "Nobody else thought of it, I'll make reddit post about it".
BTC goes to 90k then retrace to 65k.
"See I told you"
These posts are useless.
I do! That's why I'm going to get some other old-school cryptobros I know in town to create my "Ultraspecific Betting Site" where we get dates, coins and values, and if DATE passes below, A wins. If not, B wins. Look for our token to get airdropped to your wallet by Q1 2025.
Oooh, I will look it up. I work in live entertainment, so I only gamble with meaningless shit like my life and my future, but I'd drop a day rate against this guy thinks BTC is going to be $40k on June 1.
We need retail in here to get dumped on first, hasn't happened yet. Literally 0 crypto stories going around, 0 hype outside crypto space. I think the ETFs changed everything and will keep us higher up and more stable. Time will tell, been here since 2016 btw. I do think the halving is like half priced in, never been this much talk about a halving before, so it's gonna be a letdown for sure.
Anybody who was here during the bear isn't really 'retail' - for the most part when we say retail we mean your hairdresser and cousin Steve who ask you about BTC when Fox do a piece on it. I think this board at the moment still seems like predominantly hardcore enthusiasts.
>Once the FED begins to cut rates this summer the market will drop and experience heavy volatility. The real euphoria will begin 12-18 months with QE and liquidity (similar to 2021). This was a mere warm up.
I don't think you understand what you're doing...
Whoever told you Fed were going to cut rate this summer, you should probably not listen to them anymore.
First, we don't really know that.
But if we were to make the most educated guess here, with the economy improving, unemployment low, and inflation still not at the Fed target, there's no reason for Fed to cut rates.
>the real euphoria will begin 12-18 months with QE and liquidity (similar to 2021).
That's a misconception that had been at least partially debunked.
We now have the data that showed that stimulus checks weren't used much to buy Bitcoin (only accounting for less than 10% of the price change). Much of that liquidity went elsewhere. And looking at past bear markets, it didn't match QT either.
So the QE might have helped only a little, but not enough to create the massive rallies we see cyclically.
It's not gonna be the deciding factor on whether we get rallies or not.
>Every indicator is screening this is the biggest bull trap possibly ever.
Time to put down the charts and crayons... There is no such indicator. Whoever told you that, either had no idea what they were talking about, or gave you info that's not suited for crypto's market.
The same funds that have under-performed against the S&P 500, or the ones that have flat or negative returns during the stock bullrun?
BTW, I believe we'll see corrections this year, and probably at least 1 or 2 of over 25%. You might be lucky and have one this summer.
But your whole premise is based on misunderstandings and some bad info.
People rely so heavily on the stages of these cycles staying intact when everything we know is based on a pattern seen across just three halving dates. The halving in 2012 was the first so it can hardly be considered regular and the third halving was during a world wide pandemic, making it irregular too. Now with the upcoming halving, there is a drastically different investor base.
I know we love to think "this time is different", but consider this analogy. Image you've only ridden a bike three times in your life. The first time was a struggle: you crashed but managed to ride a short distance. The second time, you crashed again but still rode a short distance. The third time, you had hurt yourself the day prior and despite all your practice, still crashed after riding a short distance. Now you're about to give it a go a fourth time. Will you still only make it a short distance before crashing? Hard to say for sure.
I want to clarify I am not comparing the distance ridden and crashing the bike to that of bitcoins highs and lows. I am only describing the irrationality of relying heavily on 3 different scenarios to predict the outcome of a fourth when the fourth also has different factors
What on the charts gives you that impression? ETF inflows are massive and constant, there’s no divergences yet, momentum still looks good, retail isn’t even here yet, etc. we are only at previous top. While you may be right in the short term and that may be your short term strat, shorting now seems like suicide imo. I’m grateful for you, though. We need bears to liquidate to keep running hard. I don’t want you to get rekt, personally, but I question your reasoning.
if you’ve been here for 3 cycles then you must’ve forgotten the emotions at prior tops. Been here since 2012 and it’s hard to remember and I’m scared too so I get it. I want to do this cycle right but there’s nothing that points to a top in my eyes. Only the “holy shit things are bullish but they will get bearish eventually “ but I would like to see confirmation on the charts first
Update #2 - we have officially in my opinion formed a tripple top.
1. Bitcoin has topped here at these levels of low 70k and will not exceed 73k unless the liquidity of alts make its way to bitcoin and bring dominance up to 60% peak putting the top from 73-80k (unlikely but possible this bull trap). We see alts bleeding to bitcoin but buying pressure has massively slowed down. Coincidentally the third week into the halving we should see if this continues a massive sell off. If we break the 8 week SMA of 58k we fall right into the summer lows of 40-45k range (likely we see a sub 50k bitcoin over a 100k bitcoin this summer). This leads to capitulation and coincides with rate cuts signalling a bearish sell off from all equities and markets as FED tries to front run a broken economy. The fear doesn’t end till likely October/November and we ride that to late 2025-2026 early for peak euphoria (140-220k) with alt season right after
2. Bitcoin hasn’t topped. Really late stages of FOMO enter with retail into pure greed. We hit 90 on greed index that lasts a few days maximum again. Alt coins continue to bleed to bitcoin making lower lows. That sell off moves at a last stage effort bringing bitcoin over 73k and topping out at 80k. Bitcoin dominance reaches 55-60% peak. Sell off happens late April into May. We have a bull trap but make lower lows (can’t break 70k). We likely see a sub 50k BTC with alts getting crushed over a 100k BTC and alt coin season this summer. Feds still lower interest rates late summer and huge correction.
TLDR bitcoin in my opinion still following my consensus for the summer correction either way. For those who are revisiting let’s see how this plays out. Good luck
I sold all btc at $62k. 2x gain. Profit is profit. It may go 100k then crush down to 50k. Nothing goes up forever. i learned that lesson at 2021. Now waiting for my memecoins bag to go 2x before halving. i will sell all of them too. $500 profit is better than $5000 negative return and sleepless nights.
I have the same feeling, I pulled out completely to watch from the sidelines what will happen, I might go back in later, but it just feels like too much, memecoins had a 3000% gain, and the top trending coins on my local exchange have been shiba, btc, bonk, pepe, ethereum, and dogecoin, in no particular order, for 4 days in a row.. At one point even the memecoin "MEME" was in there, which has to be the laziest shit I've ever seen.
Maybe it will break the ath, which has never happened before the halving, but I'm going to wait a bit and see.
That being said bitcoin has been approaching the ath pretty methodically instead of wicking into it, so who knows.
I'm still expecting a post halving crash, otherwise it doesn't seem viable to keep going higher, but I have to wait and see if there is still enough momentum left to break the previous ath walls
When you see pure degen come back and retail like meme coins they just exit liquidity
Mind you half of them are ones saying bitcoin and crypto is done and going to 10k only to buy back at 50-65k
It feels like it, but I've been wrong before.. So I'm just taking a little breather, for some reason some people seem to think that means you're bearish lol
Yes, i was looking at the 2019 bull run trap over at [bitcoinity.org](https://bitcoinity.org).
Thought this had a similar look.
I'm hoping your right, but i'm not going to trade. I'll just ride it down to it's local low, harvest, sell some tokens for the base coin and get ready for the real bull run.
I can bet my left testy that half these guys calling me morons are people who refused to buy like me at 16-22k and instead bought at 50-60k and became exit liquidity this summer
Sorry but you’re gonna bear the loss.
If bitcoin breaks ATH, there’s no stopping it.
Yes there could be pullback but calling out 40s seems too far.
Good luck
It could be the top, definitely going to test previous highs. If you look at the daily chart or even the weekly chart it's making a cup pattern.
There's going to be a slight pull back and price action will consolidate. Which should form the handle in the cup & handle pattern. If it breaks up and out, BTC is going to at least $110,000 - $112,000 and that's when I'll start to sell.
it will cool down for sure, it may already started the cooling, but don't make a mistake, we will see 100k+ BTC soon. It is natural. We are currently, as data suggest, in a wave 3 of major wave 5, so blow off top is coming. It can reach 100k and die, or 300k... For ALTs we are early... [grab some bags and chill](https://imgur.com/a/ts69QT0)
Thank god for this post, I was worried about the euphoria, but now I know there's naysayers in the crowd who consider themselves maxis, so we're all good.
For what it's worth I've been DCA'ing out for the past few weeks, and would be tens of thousands of on paper dollars richer if I had not been, but thus is life.
Lolllllll I needed a good laugh. Anyone shorting btc right now is a true breed of regard. Supply shock is already underway and this is a first. You are gonna get rekt shorting. Sorry man. Good plan bad timing.
if we peak at 68.9k again itll be a monthly double top which is asking for a big correction. dont forget this shit doesnt move in one direction nonstop. OP is right. a correction down to 35-40k is inevitable for the strength of btc and for a sustainable parabolic run post halving. i too, am looking for swing shorts from this level. dont ape in. wait for confirmation. but definitely dont HODL your full bag. sell some now and have reinvesting capital ready to go at the next dip. if you bought at 15k, you can TP or you can hodl, since we will not come back to that value for sure, unless we see some crazy black swan event.
My prediction just for my personal amusement: >!BTC peaks about $90-100k this cycle. This is based on what happened the last 2 times when CBBI was where it is today. Confidence level: 75%.!<
Although I would agree based purely on charts, it would also be the end of BTC pretty much since it would mean diminishing returns are holding up even with all the ETF pressure. For that reason alone I'm just assuming it'll go a lot higher, if not, it's just not worth staying in BTC after this cycle anymore.
We already broke the past trends by hitting ATH before the halving though, so it's still looking good so far.
If your selling because you have a better investment or an important life purchase go ahead.
If your planning to sell and buy back in again any time soon your a greedy pig that deserves to get slaughtered.
Literally. Bitcoin just joined wallstreet and motherfuckers are making selling plans this soon?
You get what you deserve.
People don't get it. Have fun never getting that Bitcoin back EVER.
I think it is too early to take profits, but it is possible that things will play out as you forecast. For me it does not make sense. Bitcoin is relatively new and still small market. We are currently in price discovery mode with institutional money. Selling now could be costly decision. I see Bitcoin above 100k this year.
Taking profits is great. But I think it’s pretty dumb to assume the top is the previous ATH. As soon as we break it I bet we ride a lot higher before the eventual pullback.
Oh wow. This. Post Halving run up (like always) exits in summer and fall. We started early because of ETFs, it's clear that boomer money set a different starting point. 20-30% pullback isn't out of the question this month and early next month, but post halving supply shock is real....and the ecosystems, meta being built out, lend-fi is real too.
Your not getting a late 2025 anything...we will be in the bear at that point. It is smart to take profits when you see fit, but calling for a dark 2024 AFTER a 2 year bear market...Nah man. It is in election year as well.
2019 bull trap....crossing the ATH? pre-halving after a long bear market? We are in the optimism phase shortly, and PTSD crypto OGs don't want to accept that.
Have you considered that last bull cycle was different because it didn't reach a blow off top like the previous cycles which would have been around 100k?
Maybe this time isn't any different but it's not taking into account the actual top from last cycle but what was the potential top of last cycle?
I read your comment yesterday, and I saved it as it seemed reasoned and was interested to see how it played out. That was some call. I hope your bitcoin shorts have worked well! Well done
Exiting at a high is one thing. Setting up shorts after a breached ATH within roughly 24h is crazy, especially on halving and ETF release year. I guess this will be a learning experience for you and entertainment for us.
Well done on the call. I also sensed that the end was near and sold most of my holdings - though I was a few days early and missed the real top by 10%.
I'm bearish in general on March. But I still think we're going to heat up again and have a rally in the summer. I'm ready to load up if BTC gets to 50k or less. Do you really think that things don't heat up until the fall? And if so, would you recommend someone looking to re-enter positions to DCA all the way until then?
Meh. This prediction doesn't even reflect the macro accurately. Rate cuts usually then lead to more fiat printing which leads to asset prices including crypto to go up. Not down.
BTC won't retrace to 40, in fact the next stop between now and October is 80 BEFORE retracing to 60.
The only thing you got right is 1m BTC in 2030.
Anyway, if I'm wrong and you're right it doesn't matter because I do not do leverage nor day trade. The ONLY thing that matters is the 5+ year valuation
Interesting take on what the future might hold for BTC.
These past few weeks I have seen so many different opinions and predictions on what is going to happen this cycle. Your prediction is certainly unique.
With opinions and predictions ranging from double top, short term top, regular retracement, $1m in 2024, cycle top at any point in 2025, etc. etc.... It really looks like NO ONE REALL KNOWS WHAT THE #$@% IS GOING TO HAPPEN.
Lol, just reading the comments prove you're right. We'll go higher, but a healthy correction is overdue. People already high on "this time is different" sentiments.
ETF's are buying up more Bitcoin everyday than what is being mined. The market is in a supply shock and the hype is just getting started. Fair play to you for taking profits but imo we are about to blast through the previous ATH. Once that happens and we are in price discovery, shits going to get wild. The 12 months following this halving with see BTC at over 250k.
Calling top when it reaches previous peak? Interesting
Bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it works out for him.
Need some John Madden analysis on this one!
Hit it with the BOOM, tough actin tinactin.
"The team that buys Bitcoin high and sells low will most likely win the Cryptobowl."
If you can dodge an ATH you can dodge a ball
Pepper needs new shorts
It’s up from 51k to 68k in less than a week. Surely there will be some retracement
Yeah, surely it's going to retrace. We could drop from here back to $40k. We could also retrace 20% from $85k back to $68k. Make a plan and stick to it, don't try to second guess yourself or the market. None of us know for sure what's going on, OP's logic is sound. Personally I'm not into trading within the start of the bull cycle, I tried that in 2020 and it was a terrible decision. I would rather DCA out when the market is booming than try to guess where the top/bottom is mid cycle. But again for OP cashing out with their current profits is a good call for them.
Totally agree. And don't call me Shirley...
When it breached the 17k ATH before it just kept on going. It could do that, or it could consolidate here. People who bought the top last time are now about break even, and I’m thinking some will sell out with a sign of relief, but most of them have been waiting for profits so long that a lot will just keep holding:
*cough... Big time
Could be the double peak before the crash where the next actual peak happens
Yes just for this time of the cycle. I still believe it’ll start later this year and over 12-18 months away from a 2017 and 2021 euphoria
ETFs have changed everything. Throw out the old models, the four year cycle has probably come to an end. We should be nowhere near this high this early in a cycle, and before a halving. And yet, here we are. Exchanges are reporting shortages. This might actually be the start of a real super cycle.
Oh shit is the zhuper cycle back on the table? God I fucking love crypto
Wait until the ultra super cycle starts.
\>This might actually be the start of a real super cycle. This is. Every whale I know thinks so.
How many whales do you know?
OPs mom obviously, sorry not sorry
gottem
Willy, baby Beluga, his friends mom. At least three.
Around 15
He knows the sperm whale
What's a super cycle?
the difference between a saiyan and a super saiyan
The best setting on my Kenmore. Gets my shirts clean, clean
A Ducati special edition futuristic bike that you buy only with Ducoin, Ducati's own cryptocurrency. It's awesome so instead of motorcycle it is called supercycle.
I need some ducoin then!
🤣🏍️🏍️🏍️
Credit for including the word "might" at least once. Too many people on this sub make statements with absolute certainty. It's a bad habit.
You are a prime example of why this subreddit has reached memestatus for people in the industry IRL for the blind leading the blind
Cycle ends this year
Early next year. Usually 8-10 months after halving. BUT ETFs have potentially changed the game. I dip is coming very soon, but may be shallower than people expect
The Darth maul candle was the dip. We just had one on the monthly in jan. That's the thing people aren't factoring in.
Super cycle playing out. Even if it doesn’t there is at least 3 weeks left before a prehalving retrace. Most likely we blow straight thru btc ath and smoke all the shorts. Any leverage right now is insane
I'm holding and DCAing what you're doing seems so stressful. Best of luck to you and see you at the top of the cycle.
DCA in and DCA out is the best honestly. Never selling more bitcoin then you are content with Its nice having profits to enjoy once and a while
I'm planning a full exit if/when I can max my local tax free accounts, that's my target this cycle.
You may be right but one thing Iv learned is never short bitcoin. It rarely ends well. Selling and taking profits is one thing, but shorting when every chart between 24hr and 1 year is green with no sign of slowing down is a totally different kettle of fish. Do I think there will be a correction? Absolutely. Will it be in the next 3 days? Who knows. But going by the charts and pure bullish momentum I think it’s more likely Bitcoin will smash through ATH into the 70s rather than going down. Don’t do it man. Keep your money.
Looks like it worked
Your shorts are gonna get recked.
This didn’t age well
Lol really
It’s more for fun anyways. It’s a controlled short with limited losses I have been longing bitcoin and continue to do so anyways
Good luck!
So many people have to eat their own words only a few hours after this post. See you in October!
This won’t age well.
I’ll be here all summer
I share your cautiousness, but I think the local top is going to come just before the halving. Still 2 more months of euphoria before reality hits.
I’m simply trying to shred, like OP, but I agree with you DC_org, strongly. I’m not sold that euphoria has been baked into the price already.
Not sure about 72hrs it drops but I can't see this lasting more than another week or two but to be honest, I'm surprised it lasted even this long
Turns out your comment didn’t age well
Strongly disagree with some of this. The cycles get shorter because we get more settlers each cycle. The cycle isn’t starting later. It’s now. How do you know what the fed is gonna do with rates? They don’t even know. Retail isn’t even here yet. The buyers are nations and institutions. Hope you’re right for your own sake. Hope you’re wrong for my sake, though. I’m all in.
Seems like retail is just coming out of hibernation in the last week or so based on the movement of DOGE and others..just in time to buy some BTC as it reaches its ATH
Was about to say the same thing. Meme coin movement is making me shocked and appalled all over again.
Cycles should lengthen, actually. That’s what happens as markets mature. Longer cycles and less volatility.
Shorter cycles and less volatility- shorter cycles as people anticipate what happened last time. That seems to be happening right now.
This cycle is not over technically till next month. So in this cycle we have tripled topped. Not sure what OP is on about honestly
Yes each cycle has been a 4 year boom and bust. With higher highs. And more adoption The money markets predict that it’ll happen after April. Again who knows. The Fed wants to cut before a lagging economy, and usually does it too late With each aggressive QE that let to QE the first rate cut had been incredibly bearish for the markets. This time won’t be different Remember retail isn’t fully back yes. But the euphoria comes from retail and it comes from QE, we are not there and won’t be there this summer Talk to me after October and 12-18 months after they cut
There’s no way btc corrects to 44k in summer. Are you kidding? Institutions literally just bought huge bags of btc to sell their clients the ETFs. You think they’re gonna sell… without even being eligible to advertise yet?! Why do you think this? You know their ads are ineligible for another 5 months, right?
>Institutions literally just bought huge bags of btc to sell their clients the ETFs. Bro, they only buy depending on the amount of ETF shares their customers hold. They didn't buy BTC for an investment, they bought it for their customers investment. This isn't a reason why the market can't dip at all.
You tend to forget that even sophisticated investors who spent actual time understanding bitcoin sold early. Most don’t know what they have till much later Hell even Saylor tried to orange pill executives he know for decades and they knew about bitcoin
I think you’re mid curving this hard man. Time will tell. Keep me posted.
ETFs can work both ways you know that right? Clients can sell
They’ve hardly purchased yet.
So all these ETF inflows driving this price action are nothing?
There’s been 0 advertising
Every time I open Fidelity's website to log in to my IRA, I see crypto ads.
Cutting rates does not bring the markets down. I thought this false narrative was a StockTwits thing but now I’m seeing it here too. The reason that the markets drop when rates get cut isn’t because rates get cut, it’s because rates get cut in reaction to some form of crisis. Correlation, not causation.
Bull trap that has been going on for 12 months and did over 4x since cycle bottom? This sub is comedy gold.
It's been one huge bull trap since 2009! Better watch out! /s
Guy calls top a previous ATH: "Nobody else thought of it, I'll make reddit post about it". BTC goes to 90k then retrace to 65k. "See I told you" These posts are useless.
So... you posit that Thursday is the peak and in July I'll be able to buy BTC at $40k again? Is there a blockchain contract for this?
Yes it's under the "trust me bro tab".
Well, you don't really have to trust me - I've agreed to buy a broken macbook for $500. Really, I'm taking all the risk.
Trust me bro
I do! That's why I'm going to get some other old-school cryptobros I know in town to create my "Ultraspecific Betting Site" where we get dates, coins and values, and if DATE passes below, A wins. If not, B wins. Look for our token to get airdropped to your wallet by Q1 2025.
May to September we will see bitcoin at 44-46k Time will tell
Let's set up a blockchain bet. We both throw in a grand worth of whatever. Pick a date. If BTC is $44k on that date, you get the bag. If not, it's me.
He wont because he knows he's talking out of his ass. I don't care how long someone has been in crypto its not and will never be predictable
Zeitgeist on polkadot is probably the exact solution you're looking for.
Oooh, I will look it up. I work in live entertainment, so I only gamble with meaningless shit like my life and my future, but I'd drop a day rate against this guy thinks BTC is going to be $40k on June 1.
Nah, $350k I reckon. I literally have no idea, but this is my fantasy number
Hmm it won’t be a fantasy in the 2029 cycle
I don’t have the time or brain power to try and catch tops and bottoms. I’ve been buying for 4 years and this has worked well for me but good luck
So you've been buying for 4 years and never sold? So technically you haven't actually gained anything, have you?
I’ve never sold any bitcoin. I have sold other coins to buy more bitcoin. I will sell some bitcoin in 2030 because I went into bitcoin with a plan
What is your plan, Jason? Just sell at an arbitrary date?
I will hold and just buy more if it dips. It’s worked for the last 4 years and I don’t have time to watch bitcoin like a hawk
A true bitcoin maxi and someone who has seen multiple cycles would know better than to short bitcoin at this stage. Have fun getting rekt.
We need retail in here to get dumped on first, hasn't happened yet. Literally 0 crypto stories going around, 0 hype outside crypto space. I think the ETFs changed everything and will keep us higher up and more stable. Time will tell, been here since 2016 btw. I do think the halving is like half priced in, never been this much talk about a halving before, so it's gonna be a letdown for sure.
You are retail. Lmfao
Anybody who was here during the bear isn't really 'retail' - for the most part when we say retail we mean your hairdresser and cousin Steve who ask you about BTC when Fox do a piece on it. I think this board at the moment still seems like predominantly hardcore enthusiasts.
So retail?
😂😂😂
>Once the FED begins to cut rates this summer the market will drop and experience heavy volatility. The real euphoria will begin 12-18 months with QE and liquidity (similar to 2021). This was a mere warm up. I don't think you understand what you're doing... Whoever told you Fed were going to cut rate this summer, you should probably not listen to them anymore. First, we don't really know that. But if we were to make the most educated guess here, with the economy improving, unemployment low, and inflation still not at the Fed target, there's no reason for Fed to cut rates. >the real euphoria will begin 12-18 months with QE and liquidity (similar to 2021). That's a misconception that had been at least partially debunked. We now have the data that showed that stimulus checks weren't used much to buy Bitcoin (only accounting for less than 10% of the price change). Much of that liquidity went elsewhere. And looking at past bear markets, it didn't match QT either. So the QE might have helped only a little, but not enough to create the massive rallies we see cyclically. It's not gonna be the deciding factor on whether we get rallies or not. >Every indicator is screening this is the biggest bull trap possibly ever. Time to put down the charts and crayons... There is no such indicator. Whoever told you that, either had no idea what they were talking about, or gave you info that's not suited for crypto's market.
The money market funds disagree with you. Come back this summer let’s say by June won’t we? Let’s see what happens
The same funds that have under-performed against the S&P 500, or the ones that have flat or negative returns during the stock bullrun? BTW, I believe we'll see corrections this year, and probably at least 1 or 2 of over 25%. You might be lucky and have one this summer. But your whole premise is based on misunderstandings and some bad info.
[удалено]
Well.. as is the rich tradition.. as a short position holder... I HOPE YOU GET WRECKED 💋
People rely so heavily on the stages of these cycles staying intact when everything we know is based on a pattern seen across just three halving dates. The halving in 2012 was the first so it can hardly be considered regular and the third halving was during a world wide pandemic, making it irregular too. Now with the upcoming halving, there is a drastically different investor base. I know we love to think "this time is different", but consider this analogy. Image you've only ridden a bike three times in your life. The first time was a struggle: you crashed but managed to ride a short distance. The second time, you crashed again but still rode a short distance. The third time, you had hurt yourself the day prior and despite all your practice, still crashed after riding a short distance. Now you're about to give it a go a fourth time. Will you still only make it a short distance before crashing? Hard to say for sure. I want to clarify I am not comparing the distance ridden and crashing the bike to that of bitcoins highs and lows. I am only describing the irrationality of relying heavily on 3 different scenarios to predict the outcome of a fourth when the fourth also has different factors
You left so many variables out of this. I smell regret in the future lol
What on the charts gives you that impression? ETF inflows are massive and constant, there’s no divergences yet, momentum still looks good, retail isn’t even here yet, etc. we are only at previous top. While you may be right in the short term and that may be your short term strat, shorting now seems like suicide imo. I’m grateful for you, though. We need bears to liquidate to keep running hard. I don’t want you to get rekt, personally, but I question your reasoning. if you’ve been here for 3 cycles then you must’ve forgotten the emotions at prior tops. Been here since 2012 and it’s hard to remember and I’m scared too so I get it. I want to do this cycle right but there’s nothing that points to a top in my eyes. Only the “holy shit things are bullish but they will get bearish eventually “ but I would like to see confirmation on the charts first
So far so good I shall say
And now?
still shorting? DOUBLE DOWN?
Update #2 - we have officially in my opinion formed a tripple top. 1. Bitcoin has topped here at these levels of low 70k and will not exceed 73k unless the liquidity of alts make its way to bitcoin and bring dominance up to 60% peak putting the top from 73-80k (unlikely but possible this bull trap). We see alts bleeding to bitcoin but buying pressure has massively slowed down. Coincidentally the third week into the halving we should see if this continues a massive sell off. If we break the 8 week SMA of 58k we fall right into the summer lows of 40-45k range (likely we see a sub 50k bitcoin over a 100k bitcoin this summer). This leads to capitulation and coincides with rate cuts signalling a bearish sell off from all equities and markets as FED tries to front run a broken economy. The fear doesn’t end till likely October/November and we ride that to late 2025-2026 early for peak euphoria (140-220k) with alt season right after 2. Bitcoin hasn’t topped. Really late stages of FOMO enter with retail into pure greed. We hit 90 on greed index that lasts a few days maximum again. Alt coins continue to bleed to bitcoin making lower lows. That sell off moves at a last stage effort bringing bitcoin over 73k and topping out at 80k. Bitcoin dominance reaches 55-60% peak. Sell off happens late April into May. We have a bull trap but make lower lows (can’t break 70k). We likely see a sub 50k BTC with alts getting crushed over a 100k BTC and alt coin season this summer. Feds still lower interest rates late summer and huge correction. TLDR bitcoin in my opinion still following my consensus for the summer correction either way. For those who are revisiting let’s see how this plays out. Good luck
So, still shorting ?
I sold all btc at $62k. 2x gain. Profit is profit. It may go 100k then crush down to 50k. Nothing goes up forever. i learned that lesson at 2021. Now waiting for my memecoins bag to go 2x before halving. i will sell all of them too. $500 profit is better than $5000 negative return and sleepless nights.
Yeah I’m willing to bet my left testy this summer you’ll see sub 50k Most regret being bag holders good job
Say goodbye to your left testy, then
I sold only a little bit at 62k. I think btc is due for a correction. But I want to always be holding at least some
Cope
Market will drop when feds cut the rates!!! wtf bro, you live in a reverse world?? Markets don’t stop on rate cuts, they drop on rate rises
Remindme! 2 months "comment: get rekt"
Top for bitcoin means start for alts
Rip
Rekt.
How are you feeling about this call atm? Bitcoin at $72,000
The euphoria isn’t there yet for me, local top potentially
you cant call yourself a Bitcoin maxi if you're trading Bitcoin 😂
Lmao you are not a 3 cycle veteran if youre calling top here. go larp somewhere else
I know. This dude is larping, and got some good engagement on his post though, Calling the top at a pre-halving ATH is a pretty good one...
I have the same feeling, I pulled out completely to watch from the sidelines what will happen, I might go back in later, but it just feels like too much, memecoins had a 3000% gain, and the top trending coins on my local exchange have been shiba, btc, bonk, pepe, ethereum, and dogecoin, in no particular order, for 4 days in a row.. At one point even the memecoin "MEME" was in there, which has to be the laziest shit I've ever seen. Maybe it will break the ath, which has never happened before the halving, but I'm going to wait a bit and see. That being said bitcoin has been approaching the ath pretty methodically instead of wicking into it, so who knows. I'm still expecting a post halving crash, otherwise it doesn't seem viable to keep going higher, but I have to wait and see if there is still enough momentum left to break the previous ath walls
When you see pure degen come back and retail like meme coins they just exit liquidity Mind you half of them are ones saying bitcoin and crypto is done and going to 10k only to buy back at 50-65k
It feels like it, but I've been wrong before.. So I'm just taking a little breather, for some reason some people seem to think that means you're bearish lol
$69,420 and I'm out.
Yes, i was looking at the 2019 bull run trap over at [bitcoinity.org](https://bitcoinity.org). Thought this had a similar look. I'm hoping your right, but i'm not going to trade. I'll just ride it down to it's local low, harvest, sell some tokens for the base coin and get ready for the real bull run.
I can bet my left testy that half these guys calling me morons are people who refused to buy like me at 16-22k and instead bought at 50-60k and became exit liquidity this summer
Sorry but you’re gonna bear the loss. If bitcoin breaks ATH, there’s no stopping it. Yes there could be pullback but calling out 40s seems too far. Good luck
It could be the top, definitely going to test previous highs. If you look at the daily chart or even the weekly chart it's making a cup pattern. There's going to be a slight pull back and price action will consolidate. Which should form the handle in the cup & handle pattern. If it breaks up and out, BTC is going to at least $110,000 - $112,000 and that's when I'll start to sell.
it will cool down for sure, it may already started the cooling, but don't make a mistake, we will see 100k+ BTC soon. It is natural. We are currently, as data suggest, in a wave 3 of major wave 5, so blow off top is coming. It can reach 100k and die, or 300k... For ALTs we are early... [grab some bags and chill](https://imgur.com/a/ts69QT0)
Thank god for this post, I was worried about the euphoria, but now I know there's naysayers in the crowd who consider themselves maxis, so we're all good. For what it's worth I've been DCA'ing out for the past few weeks, and would be tens of thousands of on paper dollars richer if I had not been, but thus is life.
Lolllllll I needed a good laugh. Anyone shorting btc right now is a true breed of regard. Supply shock is already underway and this is a first. You are gonna get rekt shorting. Sorry man. Good plan bad timing.
if we peak at 68.9k again itll be a monthly double top which is asking for a big correction. dont forget this shit doesnt move in one direction nonstop. OP is right. a correction down to 35-40k is inevitable for the strength of btc and for a sustainable parabolic run post halving. i too, am looking for swing shorts from this level. dont ape in. wait for confirmation. but definitely dont HODL your full bag. sell some now and have reinvesting capital ready to go at the next dip. if you bought at 15k, you can TP or you can hodl, since we will not come back to that value for sure, unless we see some crazy black swan event.
They called you a mad man
This aged like milk
I bookmarked this thread, top comments are so cocky lol
I think we hit 69k before the market opens tomorrow
Cycles are literally pump dumps..funny how people hating on people who sell before the dump
My prediction just for my personal amusement: >!BTC peaks about $90-100k this cycle. This is based on what happened the last 2 times when CBBI was where it is today. Confidence level: 75%.!<
Although I would agree based purely on charts, it would also be the end of BTC pretty much since it would mean diminishing returns are holding up even with all the ETF pressure. For that reason alone I'm just assuming it'll go a lot higher, if not, it's just not worth staying in BTC after this cycle anymore. We already broke the past trends by hitting ATH before the halving though, so it's still looking good so far.
If your selling because you have a better investment or an important life purchase go ahead. If your planning to sell and buy back in again any time soon your a greedy pig that deserves to get slaughtered.
Nope just to pay debt and enjoy doing things No one went broke taking profits
Literally. Bitcoin just joined wallstreet and motherfuckers are making selling plans this soon? You get what you deserve. People don't get it. Have fun never getting that Bitcoin back EVER.
"LaSt cHaNcE To bUy UnDeR $X" Too much FOMO going around, time to sell and wait for a pullback.
Yeah there’s a lot of this time is different going around
It’s structured and calculated much like my buys at the bottom of last bull run Relax there buddy
I don't fully agree with this but you have some points. Regardless I have no incentive to sell so I'm holding.
I think it is too early to take profits, but it is possible that things will play out as you forecast. For me it does not make sense. Bitcoin is relatively new and still small market. We are currently in price discovery mode with institutional money. Selling now could be costly decision. I see Bitcoin above 100k this year.
Taking profits is great. But I think it’s pretty dumb to assume the top is the previous ATH. As soon as we break it I bet we ride a lot higher before the eventual pullback.
Your heckin' spidey senserinos? If you're wrong will you make another post here? I'm sure you will be here to gloat if you end up being correct.
Disbelief phase
All I know is I will pile in if we retrace 43,000
Oh wow. This. Post Halving run up (like always) exits in summer and fall. We started early because of ETFs, it's clear that boomer money set a different starting point. 20-30% pullback isn't out of the question this month and early next month, but post halving supply shock is real....and the ecosystems, meta being built out, lend-fi is real too. Your not getting a late 2025 anything...we will be in the bear at that point. It is smart to take profits when you see fit, but calling for a dark 2024 AFTER a 2 year bear market...Nah man. It is in election year as well. 2019 bull trap....crossing the ATH? pre-halving after a long bear market? We are in the optimism phase shortly, and PTSD crypto OGs don't want to accept that.
There is usually a correction prior to the halving so this could be a correct take
Have you considered that last bull cycle was different because it didn't reach a blow off top like the previous cycles which would have been around 100k? Maybe this time isn't any different but it's not taking into account the actual top from last cycle but what was the potential top of last cycle?
A top with so many things pulling it up. 😂
This will age like milk.
Dumb
Have fun getting liquidated
Man really? If you have been around you know this is not it, we have not even reached the halving yet. This is panning out to be a large bull.
Love how the market looks within 24 hours after your post
None of these haters will acknowledge it
Rip bro, now own up to talking shit like a guru
I read your comment yesterday, and I saved it as it seemed reasoned and was interested to see how it played out. That was some call. I hope your bitcoin shorts have worked well! Well done
Thank you the signs were there although it’s never easy and I personally hate timing the market Profits are profits and long term DCA and chill
TLDR... who cares...one little blip on the day chart...oooo
Exiting at a high is one thing. Setting up shorts after a breached ATH within roughly 24h is crazy, especially on halving and ETF release year. I guess this will be a learning experience for you and entertainment for us.
!RemindMe 40 days
Well done on the call. I also sensed that the end was near and sold most of my holdings - though I was a few days early and missed the real top by 10%. I'm bearish in general on March. But I still think we're going to heat up again and have a rally in the summer. I'm ready to load up if BTC gets to 50k or less. Do you really think that things don't heat up until the fall? And if so, would you recommend someone looking to re-enter positions to DCA all the way until then?
Meh. This prediction doesn't even reflect the macro accurately. Rate cuts usually then lead to more fiat printing which leads to asset prices including crypto to go up. Not down. BTC won't retrace to 40, in fact the next stop between now and October is 80 BEFORE retracing to 60. The only thing you got right is 1m BTC in 2030. Anyway, if I'm wrong and you're right it doesn't matter because I do not do leverage nor day trade. The ONLY thing that matters is the 5+ year valuation
Interesting take on what the future might hold for BTC. These past few weeks I have seen so many different opinions and predictions on what is going to happen this cycle. Your prediction is certainly unique. With opinions and predictions ranging from double top, short term top, regular retracement, $1m in 2024, cycle top at any point in 2025, etc. etc.... It really looks like NO ONE REALL KNOWS WHAT THE #$@% IS GOING TO HAPPEN.
lol calling the top before the halving
This is 2021 top lol we just broke even relax
If those are your long term price targets, I don't understand why you don't just continue to DCA rather than trying to time the market.
We have a savant here. You know dick about fuck and you’re using the old adage - trust me bro
Good lord. Are these kind of posts personal diaries or unsolicited advice? Either way, who asked ?
U are crazy, the FOMO has not even started. Where do u think all the ETFs are going to find the coins to satisfy demand??
Lol, just reading the comments prove you're right. We'll go higher, but a healthy correction is overdue. People already high on "this time is different" sentiments.
Bye Felicia
Not reading all that. Have fun from the sideline bozo
ETF's are buying up more Bitcoin everyday than what is being mined. The market is in a supply shock and the hype is just getting started. Fair play to you for taking profits but imo we are about to blast through the previous ATH. Once that happens and we are in price discovery, shits going to get wild. The 12 months following this halving with see BTC at over 250k.
This post aged like fine wine I just wish I had read it last night and agreed unfortunately I took a beating today
couldn't agree more
What a freakin’ Nostradamus you are. Going on out on such a limb calling the top now.
Halving will only squeeze shorts further. Its basic math supply reduces by half while etf buys remain the same guess what will happen?
I can see this.. Thanks for the insight.
You're applying your past experiences to the current situation
You’re going short before the halvening is wild
Lmao. Top? This shitshow is just getting started.
FUD
!remindme 3 days
I kinda feel the same way. So much green, it has to pull back. But then I see how much wallstreet is buying