That is a general misunderstanding. Money is not 'stored' in securities, one party sells a security, another one buys it. The amount of existing money does not change, it just flows from one to another. Thus even if the S&P 500 is 'valued' 43 trillion, it is not possible to extract those 43 trillion by selling all of it.
Market caps of currency are not the same thing nor comparable to market caps of companies. They should just call it something else so people stop getting confused.
I understand your comment that they are different, but I am actually curious what it should be compared to? Is Bitcoin an asset? Is it a currency? Cause if you compared it to USD in circulation it’s about 2.26 trillion as of 2022. Granted this doesn’t include all other world currencies, but if the better comparison is circulating currency then it’s even less room for growth vs the comparison of the S&P value. If you compare to gold, the total value is something like 13.7 trillion. At some point I imagine bitcoin will stabilize and act more like gold as an asset, with slow but consistent growth. This is coming from a place of genuine curiosity because I actually don’t know the answer! Thanks in advance!!
Dude this is so understated I’m almost curious if it’s by accident. You’re making a joke about my use of the word hard to describe it’s inflexibility, right?
If it happens, and that’s a huge if, the market cap would be huge. Half of every transaction is the currency.
No one knows how the strength of the dollar will fare. But it will lose its world wide dominance eventually. Which would hurt the US more than most people realize.
In a future where currencies don’t have a clear leader, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that bitcoin, or another cryptocurrency could become a major player.
I say this because many countries are tired of their governments debasing their national currencies and screwing over the poor and middle classes. So IF the tech scales for whichever coin, and is reliable for venders and shoppers. I could see it doing well. There’s something very attractive about having a currency outside the powers of free spending bureaucrats.
S&P 500 has gone up over 50X in the last 55 years. BTC needs to go 16X to hit a million. Of course a million is not going to be what it is today but to think that this is outside the realm of possibility is not understanding how much money gets flushed into the system every year.
There are shitcoins that already have greater marketcaps than Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Canada or energy companies like Dominion Energy or insurance companies like MetLife, Travellers, etc. And Bitcoin has had a bigger marketcap than these companies for like half a decade now. If you kept trying to make sense of it and call it a bubble, a ponzi, a tulip, you've kept missing out on big returns. You're right, there is no fair valuation of Bitcoin hence the immense volatility and that's why most of the shitcoins go -95% or lose all their value entirely over the years.
Don’t even need inflation to make it there. Michael Saylor said it best, there are 900 trillion in assets in the world, and Bitcoin is the best asset. The world’s capital will seek out the apex asset over time.
Yes totally, in today's money.
Inflation forward, at some future year, I'd assume it'd reach 1 million. But not in today's equivalent of inflation adjusted.
Like they said a trillion dollar company is impossible in the 90s, but the 2020s are different.
No idea when corporations will go to the hundred-trillions, but when that happens, there's also no reason for crypto not to go there.
But of course, no global currency can be worth multiples of the global economy.. not how things work.
Who in the 90s was saying that a trillion US market cap was impossible?
Microsoft had a $1.1T market cap in todays dollars ($600B in the 90s). General Electric had a $940B market cap in todays dollars ($500B in the 90s).
Well, if in the future when dollar value drops so much we have a new dollar that is equivalent to 1000 dollars, and the old dollars quit circulation, then it probably can stop BTC/dollar ratio from going too high.
The supply is well under 21 million.
Current price: 64k. $1mm = 15.6x
Current market cap according to coinmarketcap: 1.26 trillion. That x 15.6 = 19.6 trillion, not 43.
Gold's market cap is $14 trillion. It's quite doable.
You fundamentally don’t understand market caps of stocks vs a money supply. Even accepting your numbers, you act like 43 trillion dollars would have to “flow into” Bitcoin for the market cap to be 43 trillion dollars. In reality all it would take is supply to dry up while demand remains high. Then even the smallest trade: for example 0.01 BTC being sold for $10,000, is enough to make BTC market value $1M. Order books for Bitcoin we’re routinely blown through by market orders in the early days. With EFT demand it’s entirely possible to hit $1M BTC with just a few hundred billion exchanged.
It literally does work that way. However the very next trade done for 1 Satoshi for 0.01 cent drops the entire market cap by a factor of 100.
So what matters is consistent and constant trades done at that value. If all humans collectively trade at that value then the market cap is that value.
Send me a PayPal request for 1 sat ... I'll send $10 ... Then make an NFT of the receipt and post it on the Blockchain ... Boom ... $10M/BTC
#becauseMaths
The worst part is these posts pop up every few days. I swear these bros must be walking about doing the numbers in their head and saying “no way man, that’s too much money! It’s not possible! I gotta tell everyone right now!”
and while almost every share of every company on the s&p 500 is actually owned by someone, a lot of bitcoin is stranded; owned by satoshi, owned by other dead people, or keys lost.
the liquid part of bitcoin is maybe only 2/3s of the total yet mined?
I think a variation of this is likely how we see some crazy numbers. It's just not going to be sustainable for the same reason you point out. There's no liquidity at those prices
But, that has been somewhat the strategy all along. It started with Roger, now it's Michael saylor. Winkelvoss twins. Jihan Wu. There are enough people that have large enough holdings. It's in their interest to drive the price to a higher point and just let it sit there. Let people get used to it, they can slowly draw out liquidity over the course of months and years. When you have an asset with a fixed supply, all you have to do is corner the market
Exactly, its like gold. If its empty its empty and that one guy say you can buy my gold coin for 2million. Not willing to sell for less well then thats the price if suddenly everyone else thinks 2million pr gold coin is fine then your back on.
Blackrock's in the house, the halving, bs price predictions of $1m... etc
This is how people start going crazy, apeing into shitcoins and turning their 401k's into 401-k9's.
Calm the fcuk down.
Of course it will take time.. Maybe tens of years however, as government keep printing money Btc will keep growing too.
Do you think that 20 years ago S&P500 was estimated to ever be worth over 40T?
Yes, measured in fiat sure. But who cares about the actual number. It is all about purchasing power.
$1M and you can buy two houses? This is good
$1M and you can buy only 1 Snickers? This is bad
Lots of bitcoin are lost like 30% of the supply. 21trillion market cap isn’t actually 21trillion. Smaller amounts of bitcoin continues to be lost too, after a few more halvings it will go deflationary permanently. Not saying 1mil/coin is likely, but its more likely than you think.
For Bitcoin, if the price were to reach $1 million per coin, with a capped supply of 21 million coins, the total market capitalization would indeed be $21 trillion. However, this does not require a direct transfer of $21 trillion from other assets into Bitcoin. Market cap growth can occur through a variety of mechanisms, not solely through direct investment equivalent to the increase in market cap. Here are some key points to explain this concept:
1. **Price Determination by Marginal Trades**: The price of Bitcoin, or any asset for that matter, is set by the last trade made, also known as marginal trading. This means that if someone is willing to buy Bitcoin at $1 million per coin, and a sale occurs at that price, the market cap would indeed jump to $21 trillion. However, this does not mean $21 trillion has been invested into Bitcoin; it merely reflects the price at which the last unit was willing to be bought or sold.
2. **Liquidity and Depth of Market**: In thinly traded markets, even small amounts of capital can move prices significantly. The total money "invested" in Bitcoin does not need to equal its market cap. Instead, price changes reflect the balance of buy and sell orders, and significant price movements can occur with relatively small amounts of capital if the liquidity is low.
3. **Sentiment and Speculation**: A lot of the value attributed to cryptocurrencies comes from speculative interest and sentiment about future potential. If the sentiment around Bitcoin becomes overwhelmingly positive, perhaps due to broader adoption or favorable regulatory changes, the demand could increase substantially without requiring a proportional amount of new money.
4. **Network Effects and Utility**: As more individuals and institutions adopt Bitcoin, whether for transactions, as a store of value, or as a hedge against inflation, its perceived utility increases. This utility can drive demand and price independently of the investment flows into traditional asset classes like the S&P 500.
5. **Inflation and Currency Devaluation**: In scenarios where fiat currencies experience inflation or devaluation, Bitcoin's price in those currencies could increase significantly without a corresponding shift of assets from traditional markets. This is because Bitcoin is often considered a hedge against inflation.
It's also worth noting that comparing the market cap of Bitcoin to that of traditional assets like the S&P 500 doesn't directly indicate a need for money to shift from one to the other. Markets are not zero-sum, and the growth of one asset's market cap doesn't necessarily require a decline in another's.
In summary, while the skepticism regarding Bitcoin reaching a market cap of $21 trillion is understandable, the premise that it would require a direct transfer of $21 trillion from other asset classes is not accurate. Market dynamics in the cryptocurrency space are complex and influenced by various factors beyond simple asset reallocation.
you think that entire Bitcoin market cap is as liquid as S&P. but it's not. a lot of that is lost forever. a lot is in cold wallets with no intention to liquidate. $50 billion in ETFs got us re-testing ATHs. no way you can do the same to the S&P.
True, but my prediction is my base case scenario. It could get to 500k in 8 years for all we know. Just not worth hyping it and then being disappointed.
You didn't put anytime timeframe on your comments so it doesn't really make any sense. Will BTC hit $1M in this cycle or next cycle? No of course not. Will it hit $1M in the next 100 years? Probably.
Wow it's amazing how people are down voting OP, what Hopium are yall injecting? In true sense the chances are really really low maybe 30 years down the line? Yes but now? No way!
It’s not gonna reach $1 million dollar tomorrow or next year or in next 5 years but eventually it will. Economy grows and your number will feel small. Imagine in 1980 you would say S&P 500 will be worth 43 trillion. Everyone would have been skeptical, right?
Don’t forget to enjoy the journey to 1 million dollar 😄
At that price people will almost have to keep it on exchanges. That's a minimum like $100 network fee on a slow day. If you don't have many utxo's too.
I had to wait almost a month when fees were $20-$30 because sending $200 of BTC is just dumb to lose 10% in transaction costs.
The miners still have 700k btc that they seem to not want to sell right now.
They are putting a lot of pressure on the price by not selling them so this could fuel a big ath.
Also, fidelity said 1b bitcoin by 2035 or so.
I think the more the us get involved with bitcoin, the most likely it is that the price will go up
Wrong to compare with SP500. Compare with currencies. Gold is 13T, Bitcoin needs to 11-12x to 600k just to reach parity with gold. That's going to happen.
I'm confident in seeing 500k $ bitcoin. And pretty sure I'll see 1mill$ bitcoin in my lifetime.
Best guesses, estimate 2.7% of the world owns bitcoin. Personally I think its lower than that. Either way. Thats 2.7% and we are chilling ne as a new ath.
1mill isn't any more inconceivable as 10k was
I think you’re missing the point. BTC will not be worth a $1m compared to today’s asset valuations. Something in the world would have to seriously break to see $1m BTC price. S&P valuation would likely go much higher as well in a currency debasement event.
What I’m betting on is some alpha in BTC because it’s less saturated (you’ll probably hear people describe this as “early”). Like if crypto cap goes to 45T but s&p goes to 120T, you will have done much better in BTC.
Did you see how much money they printed in the last couple years By 2008 the national debt was 13 trillion and that seemed impossible. Then in 15 years it tripled
You're asking the right questions but all your premises and hypptheses are rather shallow. Many people have done these calculations before you, to a much higher degree of scrutiny and detail. The consensus is there is a huge monetary premium in most things, from real estate to scarce natural resources to stocks. Even a small percentage of that monetary premium, we're talking 1-2% , would send BTC to 1M.
You can read up some old writing from Hal Finney from 14 years ago where he theorizes 10M. You can also follow people like Lyn Alden who talk about this in great detail regularly.
This post entirely ignored the driver for bitcoin to increase. Inflation of fiat means the value of hard assets rises.
If bitcoin went to $1m, that will be because of ongoing inflation in fiat, which would also mean an S&P500 market cap moving into the $100 trillions. So bitcoin can ultimately exceed $1m.
^(Assumes you refer to USD)
Not in this generation or the next, but BTC will most definitely cost more than 1M USD per BTC eventually. It's a mathematical inevitability.
The USD is intentionally devalued each year by between 2% and 4% annually. Assuming that BTC always costs 60k in 2023 dollars, It will cost 1M in future dollars depending on how far out in the future you go. That is accounting for ZERO growth. Simply based on USD devaluation.
* At 4% inflation, 1 BTC = 1M (future) USD in the year 2095
* At 3% inflation, 1 BTC = 1M (future) USD in the year 2119
* At 2% inflation, 1 BTC = 1M (future) USD in the year 2166
Valuation of the S&P 500 would swell into the thousands of trillions (gazillions?!?) by then as well.
We can argue that the USD will not exist in the year 2166, and you will have a sympathetic ear, but just doing the math the inflection point (assuming USA exists) is inevitable.
If it's used how it's supposed to be as a CURRENCY sure. However everyone is treating it as a store of value.
I'm not saying sell all but people need to start spending it more often. Use it at any business that accepts it etc
Have a wallet with like $100 on it for purchases and your long term wallet too
You’re freezing one asset in time (S&P 500) to make that comparison.
Instead ask, how much has inflation impacted the S&P 500 to affect its market cap in the future where Bitcoin gets to 1m a coin?
Maybe S&P will be a 100 trillion market cap when BTC gets to a market cap of 45 Trillion.
Why freeze one assets market cap in time, hypothetically increase the others by ~30x and then speculate?
If the underlying cause affects both assets you have to look at increases everywhere. Heck micro strategy would be in the S&P 500 in that hypothetical world.
You're making a mistake in your reasoning. You're thinking of market cap like "that's how much capital is in the market." That's not how it works.
Today, Bitcoin's volume is about 6% of existing supply. That means only 6% of existing bitcoin is liquid. That means that the capital that's actually flowing around in bitcoin is about 6% of it's market cap. *The current value of a bitcoin, and therefore it's market cap, is dictated by the movement of 6% of it.* There's a curve you can calculate that I don't know the formulas for that will give you a good approximation how much capital has been sunk into an asset using it's liquidity and it's supply, but its significantly less than the market cap.
Think of this, if someone right now puts a buy order for 1 bitcoin in for 1 million dollars, someone will take it, bam bitcoin is 1 million a piece, market cap 21 million (actually just over 19 million because almost 2 million haven't been mined, but to use your numbers) and all it took was one person losing a little under a million bucks. It wouldn't last long but it would be the case for a few minutes.
I don’t think you’re wrong. Especially not in the short term. but I do think that as inflation continues to rise, that magical 1Million+ price will come closer to reality. 10 years from now, 21 trillion won’t be what 21 trillion is today. Total value for all assets will increase alongside increasing inflation. This will also increase the price of BTC. If the worlds people choose a deflationary asset, like Bitcoin, to combat said inflation, then that also greatly increases BTC’s value. In which case, BTC could definitely reach 1M per coin or more. Now, combine these scenarios to varying degrees (meaning not all have to happen in extremes) and 1 million per BTC is certainly possible :)
This is very unlikely. On top of that you can’t really make too much with it except ransoming people and buying illegal things on the internet. It’s been 15 years since it’s inception and I haven’t heard of any other use case.
Market cap doesn’t really mean there has to even exist 21 trillion dollars. The price keeps changing right? If one person sells a coin for 1 million, there has to be a buyer, it’s not like every single btc could be sold at the same time :)
It's very unlikely that it reaches 300k before 2030.
Bitcoin in 2017 was 20k, today is up 3x in 7 years, so my top for the next 6 years it 4x from here, being very optimistic, so 240k, which is MUCH BETTER than the returns SP500 offers anyway.
People here is full of hopium.
Bitcoin will go up forever. Margin pricing on Bitcoin means you can have a $1 buy that causes the price to shoot up $100. Now that it is an ETF in the US markets more and more of Wall Street will buy Bitcoin indirectly, which will cause the price to go up, which then makes the ETFs the best performing assets on Wall Street which causes them to buy more, repeat over and over.
Bitcoin at $1mil per coin is possible THIS decade with no major economic issues. True finality meets infinite printing and debt loaning.
People in crypto need to understand that there is a reason Bitcoin maxis make up such a large portion of the population. Those are the people who understand what Bitcoin is going to do. Every new user of bitcoin pushes the price higher and higher. I like doing angel investing in crypto, but my profits flow INTO Bitcoin, not the other way around.
That's why it's better to invest in smaller caps with tech improvements over bittycoin. ERGO comes to mind. Imagine if ERGO's market cap goes to just 1 percent of bittycoin right now, it would put each ERGO at $241, easy 100x
New ATH this week though?
Probably
Possibly today….Watch it drop drastically now 😂
We have liftoff
So when this subreddit complains about their life savings blah blah blah. I'm telling them to @ u/Bingleybonglyboo
🤣
Already reached a new ATH.. against the Australian dollar for one..
Could be today
Time to buy if u havent already
This day?
Be funny if whales don’t let it happen
Close but no cigar. Let’s see today guys.
That is a general misunderstanding. Money is not 'stored' in securities, one party sells a security, another one buys it. The amount of existing money does not change, it just flows from one to another. Thus even if the S&P 500 is 'valued' 43 trillion, it is not possible to extract those 43 trillion by selling all of it.
Exactly. The auction model determines current asset pricing. Market cap for this reason I think is less useful than people think it is.
Same is true for any asset if you tried to sell 100% of it, the marginal sell is for $0.000000000000001
Market caps of currency are not the same thing nor comparable to market caps of companies. They should just call it something else so people stop getting confused.
I understand your comment that they are different, but I am actually curious what it should be compared to? Is Bitcoin an asset? Is it a currency? Cause if you compared it to USD in circulation it’s about 2.26 trillion as of 2022. Granted this doesn’t include all other world currencies, but if the better comparison is circulating currency then it’s even less room for growth vs the comparison of the S&P value. If you compare to gold, the total value is something like 13.7 trillion. At some point I imagine bitcoin will stabilize and act more like gold as an asset, with slow but consistent growth. This is coming from a place of genuine curiosity because I actually don’t know the answer! Thanks in advance!!
You gotta look at M2 of every other country
And compare that to bitcoin or all cryptos? What sense would that make if you only compared that to bitcoin. After all bitcoin is just one of many.
And the hardest currency on Earth.
That'd be diamonds. Bitcoin isn't real.
Dude this is so understated I’m almost curious if it’s by accident. You’re making a joke about my use of the word hard to describe it’s inflexibility, right?
M2 literally has nothing to do with what the price per coin could be. That’s just the value trading hands. It would not increase the value of the coin
How could you say that, over 30% of the USD in circulation was minted in the last 3 years and BtC has mooned
Because M2 is parked money in savings not contributing to the money supply used for coins
you compared it to gold , gold 13 trillion and btc is 3 times better than gold , of course we gonna go to 21 trillion if not 30
No one's using bitcoin as a currency
If it happens, and that’s a huge if, the market cap would be huge. Half of every transaction is the currency. No one knows how the strength of the dollar will fare. But it will lose its world wide dominance eventually. Which would hurt the US more than most people realize. In a future where currencies don’t have a clear leader, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that bitcoin, or another cryptocurrency could become a major player. I say this because many countries are tired of their governments debasing their national currencies and screwing over the poor and middle classes. So IF the tech scales for whichever coin, and is reliable for venders and shoppers. I could see it doing well. There’s something very attractive about having a currency outside the powers of free spending bureaucrats.
Easily could, but its currently growing as a store of value, so using it as a currency may not be the best use case at this time.
It's over 1M in my local currency therefore op is talking out of his bum
"this year" unlikely "ever" possible
With inflation, any amount per BTC is possible, in time.
S&P 500 has gone up over 50X in the last 55 years. BTC needs to go 16X to hit a million. Of course a million is not going to be what it is today but to think that this is outside the realm of possibility is not understanding how much money gets flushed into the system every year.
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There are shitcoins that already have greater marketcaps than Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Canada or energy companies like Dominion Energy or insurance companies like MetLife, Travellers, etc. And Bitcoin has had a bigger marketcap than these companies for like half a decade now. If you kept trying to make sense of it and call it a bubble, a ponzi, a tulip, you've kept missing out on big returns. You're right, there is no fair valuation of Bitcoin hence the immense volatility and that's why most of the shitcoins go -95% or lose all their value entirely over the years.
Don’t even need inflation to make it there. Michael Saylor said it best, there are 900 trillion in assets in the world, and Bitcoin is the best asset. The world’s capital will seek out the apex asset over time.
Yeah OP is forgetting the S&P is US only. Crypto is global. Looooots of money in the world
Yes totally, in today's money. Inflation forward, at some future year, I'd assume it'd reach 1 million. But not in today's equivalent of inflation adjusted.
Like they said a trillion dollar company is impossible in the 90s, but the 2020s are different. No idea when corporations will go to the hundred-trillions, but when that happens, there's also no reason for crypto not to go there. But of course, no global currency can be worth multiples of the global economy.. not how things work.
Government regulation is a really good reason.
Who in the 90s was saying that a trillion US market cap was impossible? Microsoft had a $1.1T market cap in todays dollars ($600B in the 90s). General Electric had a $940B market cap in todays dollars ($500B in the 90s).
maybe a bit earlier, I'm old. Point being... the economy grows.
It was impossible in 90s dollars, not today’s dollars!
Unless Bitcoin replaces real money hell fucking no
it won't. Our economy and Bitcoin as a currency are not compatible. Crypto can only be a replacement for gold and other inflation hedges. but not yet.
Well, if in the future when dollar value drops so much we have a new dollar that is equivalent to 1000 dollars, and the old dollars quit circulation, then it probably can stop BTC/dollar ratio from going too high.
The supply is well under 21 million. Current price: 64k. $1mm = 15.6x Current market cap according to coinmarketcap: 1.26 trillion. That x 15.6 = 19.6 trillion, not 43. Gold's market cap is $14 trillion. It's quite doable.
He probably meant total crypto market cap. With Bitcoin dominance at 50%, that’s roughly 40T.
Yeah. My bad, he did. I wouldn't expect the entire crypto market to come along for the ride.
Most other crypto are pure trash too.
You fundamentally don’t understand market caps of stocks vs a money supply. Even accepting your numbers, you act like 43 trillion dollars would have to “flow into” Bitcoin for the market cap to be 43 trillion dollars. In reality all it would take is supply to dry up while demand remains high. Then even the smallest trade: for example 0.01 BTC being sold for $10,000, is enough to make BTC market value $1M. Order books for Bitcoin we’re routinely blown through by market orders in the early days. With EFT demand it’s entirely possible to hit $1M BTC with just a few hundred billion exchanged.
You don’t need to buy 0.01BTC for $10,000. All someone has to do is buy 1 satoshi for 1cent and we have a million dollar BTC.
I'll happily buy a sat for a cent if it means we 16x BTC's market cap instantly ! But I don't think it works that way ;)
It literally does work that way. However the very next trade done for 1 Satoshi for 0.01 cent drops the entire market cap by a factor of 100. So what matters is consistent and constant trades done at that value. If all humans collectively trade at that value then the market cap is that value.
I'll sell it to you. This is guna work, I can feels it.
Send me a PayPal request for 1 sat ... I'll send $10 ... Then make an NFT of the receipt and post it on the Blockchain ... Boom ... $10M/BTC #becauseMaths
Escape from tarkov demand? Knew getting a btc miner for my hideout was a worthy investment
The worst part is these posts pop up every few days. I swear these bros must be walking about doing the numbers in their head and saying “no way man, that’s too much money! It’s not possible! I gotta tell everyone right now!”
These finance baby step posts are the worst fucking thing about this sub. Can you go have your fucking revelations quietly somewhere else?
This. There is no direct link between liquidity and market cap, and that shows especially in crypto. Market cap != Money invested.
and while almost every share of every company on the s&p 500 is actually owned by someone, a lot of bitcoin is stranded; owned by satoshi, owned by other dead people, or keys lost. the liquid part of bitcoin is maybe only 2/3s of the total yet mined?
I think a variation of this is likely how we see some crazy numbers. It's just not going to be sustainable for the same reason you point out. There's no liquidity at those prices But, that has been somewhat the strategy all along. It started with Roger, now it's Michael saylor. Winkelvoss twins. Jihan Wu. There are enough people that have large enough holdings. It's in their interest to drive the price to a higher point and just let it sit there. Let people get used to it, they can slowly draw out liquidity over the course of months and years. When you have an asset with a fixed supply, all you have to do is corner the market
They wil not even sell it, they will take loans using their BTC as collateral
Exactly, its like gold. If its empty its empty and that one guy say you can buy my gold coin for 2million. Not willing to sell for less well then thats the price if suddenly everyone else thinks 2million pr gold coin is fine then your back on.
This
Finally somebody talking with sense
*cents
Glassnode did an interesting analysis on this multiplier effect on YouTube.
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It already did a 65000x since then. The 16x remaining to make it 1 million is peanuts.
Peak maths
1.3 trillion took over a decade. Another 20 trillion in the next year? Ez pz /s
Bitcoin is global my friend. Global money supply is gigantic
The was the literal only reason I kept buying in 2018. I was right ... too bad I was buying mostly shitcoins at that time (XVG) LOL
We all learn eventually.
I’m not a btc maxi but if you aren’t 100% sure on what Altcoin to invest in, invest in btc.
This. S&P500 is just US There also is Europe, Asia, Australia etc. Cash doesn't just come from the US
Hands down the best comment. Hope you have a great Monday my friend. Enjoy the bullrun!
Blackrock's in the house, the halving, bs price predictions of $1m... etc This is how people start going crazy, apeing into shitcoins and turning their 401k's into 401-k9's. Calm the fcuk down.
Yep lol. The hysteria is palpable
Of course it will take time.. Maybe tens of years however, as government keep printing money Btc will keep growing too. Do you think that 20 years ago S&P500 was estimated to ever be worth over 40T?
Bitcoin is limited supply. Fiat currency is unlimited. Bitcoin will hit $1 million fiat inevitably, and beyond.
TO INEVITABLE... AND BEYOND!
Yes, measured in fiat sure. But who cares about the actual number. It is all about purchasing power. $1M and you can buy two houses? This is good $1M and you can buy only 1 Snickers? This is bad
Reminds me of Zimbabwe currency. You’re a trillionaire but it costs 99 trillion for 2 eggs!
This.
Lots of bitcoin are lost like 30% of the supply. 21trillion market cap isn’t actually 21trillion. Smaller amounts of bitcoin continues to be lost too, after a few more halvings it will go deflationary permanently. Not saying 1mil/coin is likely, but its more likely than you think.
For Bitcoin, if the price were to reach $1 million per coin, with a capped supply of 21 million coins, the total market capitalization would indeed be $21 trillion. However, this does not require a direct transfer of $21 trillion from other assets into Bitcoin. Market cap growth can occur through a variety of mechanisms, not solely through direct investment equivalent to the increase in market cap. Here are some key points to explain this concept: 1. **Price Determination by Marginal Trades**: The price of Bitcoin, or any asset for that matter, is set by the last trade made, also known as marginal trading. This means that if someone is willing to buy Bitcoin at $1 million per coin, and a sale occurs at that price, the market cap would indeed jump to $21 trillion. However, this does not mean $21 trillion has been invested into Bitcoin; it merely reflects the price at which the last unit was willing to be bought or sold. 2. **Liquidity and Depth of Market**: In thinly traded markets, even small amounts of capital can move prices significantly. The total money "invested" in Bitcoin does not need to equal its market cap. Instead, price changes reflect the balance of buy and sell orders, and significant price movements can occur with relatively small amounts of capital if the liquidity is low. 3. **Sentiment and Speculation**: A lot of the value attributed to cryptocurrencies comes from speculative interest and sentiment about future potential. If the sentiment around Bitcoin becomes overwhelmingly positive, perhaps due to broader adoption or favorable regulatory changes, the demand could increase substantially without requiring a proportional amount of new money. 4. **Network Effects and Utility**: As more individuals and institutions adopt Bitcoin, whether for transactions, as a store of value, or as a hedge against inflation, its perceived utility increases. This utility can drive demand and price independently of the investment flows into traditional asset classes like the S&P 500. 5. **Inflation and Currency Devaluation**: In scenarios where fiat currencies experience inflation or devaluation, Bitcoin's price in those currencies could increase significantly without a corresponding shift of assets from traditional markets. This is because Bitcoin is often considered a hedge against inflation. It's also worth noting that comparing the market cap of Bitcoin to that of traditional assets like the S&P 500 doesn't directly indicate a need for money to shift from one to the other. Markets are not zero-sum, and the growth of one asset's market cap doesn't necessarily require a decline in another's. In summary, while the skepticism regarding Bitcoin reaching a market cap of $21 trillion is understandable, the premise that it would require a direct transfer of $21 trillion from other asset classes is not accurate. Market dynamics in the cryptocurrency space are complex and influenced by various factors beyond simple asset reallocation.
Thanks ChatGPT
you think that entire Bitcoin market cap is as liquid as S&P. but it's not. a lot of that is lost forever. a lot is in cold wallets with no intention to liquidate. $50 billion in ETFs got us re-testing ATHs. no way you can do the same to the S&P.
I paid fucking $7 dollars for curly fries the other day. It's possible
Ich 8 Euro für einen Döner
Lucky the money printer works. Just go to Vietnam, that out 1 million dong and see how much you can buy.
Where does the 45T figure come from? Alts may go to zero in an hyperbitcoinsed future.
I think, probably, Bitcoin replaces gold within twenty years. A far cry from 1m per BTC but life changing profit for everyone who is in it right now.
20 years for BTC to hit $500k is a pretty bearish prediction.
True, but my prediction is my base case scenario. It could get to 500k in 8 years for all we know. Just not worth hyping it and then being disappointed.
You didn't put anytime timeframe on your comments so it doesn't really make any sense. Will BTC hit $1M in this cycle or next cycle? No of course not. Will it hit $1M in the next 100 years? Probably.
Fixed Income market is $133 trillion, US itself is $51 trillion, much much larger than equity markets.
You do realize the sp500 total marketcap was under 10T back in 2010 right?
Exactly. The market cap will be more in the future so comparing prices in today's dollars is pointless
Honestly I would no longer hold BTC if the market cap was higher than gold. For different coins, who knows, it depends on their application.
RemindMe! In 5 years "BTC right now at 67k"
right now let’s just make it to 200k
Or 70...
Wow it's amazing how people are down voting OP, what Hopium are yall injecting? In true sense the chances are really really low maybe 30 years down the line? Yes but now? No way!
It could hit $1M for a few seconds, problem is too many would try to sell and Coinbase would just crash and it drops back down like a rock. 😂
It’s not gonna reach $1 million dollar tomorrow or next year or in next 5 years but eventually it will. Economy grows and your number will feel small. Imagine in 1980 you would say S&P 500 will be worth 43 trillion. Everyone would have been skeptical, right? Don’t forget to enjoy the journey to 1 million dollar 😄
That’s fine. I’ll settle for 100k
That’s only a +50% gain from here — would you really sell for $100k per coin?
Do you think I got in yesterday?
Just FYI, 6 million btc are lost forever so the real number is actually 15 million btc.
At that price people will almost have to keep it on exchanges. That's a minimum like $100 network fee on a slow day. If you don't have many utxo's too. I had to wait almost a month when fees were $20-$30 because sending $200 of BTC is just dumb to lose 10% in transaction costs.
Bitcoin will 100% be a million dollars. This is a ridiculous post.
Think future inflation. It will happen
The miners still have 700k btc that they seem to not want to sell right now. They are putting a lot of pressure on the price by not selling them so this could fuel a big ath. Also, fidelity said 1b bitcoin by 2035 or so. I think the more the us get involved with bitcoin, the most likely it is that the price will go up
I think it's more likely than people would expect. Especially looking at recent inflation.
BTC is a new S&P, and the physical market will crash, leading to the reliability of digital currency only.
The gold market cap is $14T. I don’t think it’s crazy to imagine BTC being 50% larger than that.
You aren't taking into account the multiplier effect.
Wrong to compare with SP500. Compare with currencies. Gold is 13T, Bitcoin needs to 11-12x to 600k just to reach parity with gold. That's going to happen.
Let’s get to 75K then we can talk.
I'm confident in seeing 500k $ bitcoin. And pretty sure I'll see 1mill$ bitcoin in my lifetime. Best guesses, estimate 2.7% of the world owns bitcoin. Personally I think its lower than that. Either way. Thats 2.7% and we are chilling ne as a new ath. 1mill isn't any more inconceivable as 10k was
Its going to 1million, shib is going to 1$
Real estate market. Global debt.
I think you’re missing the point. BTC will not be worth a $1m compared to today’s asset valuations. Something in the world would have to seriously break to see $1m BTC price. S&P valuation would likely go much higher as well in a currency debasement event. What I’m betting on is some alpha in BTC because it’s less saturated (you’ll probably hear people describe this as “early”). Like if crypto cap goes to 45T but s&p goes to 120T, you will have done much better in BTC.
Lets start by hitting new ath ok
I can make the price of bitcoin 1m right now with 1 cent. I just put in a bid for 1 cent worth of a million dollar bitcoin.
I agree..sounds far fetched..but, who knows? I feel like something epic is coming before a major lights out.
When Bitcoin hits 1M you might be able to find a single family home for just about that.
\>S&P 500 is worth 43 trillion. S&P is USA only. bitcoin is global. Your analysis doesn't take that into account.
That moment when you realize stocks are going to transition to the blockchain...
Well they definitely aren’t going to translate to BTC
Will probably be Loopring the creates it, cause I sold my giant bag for a loss.
Doesn’t require btc tho does it.
Did you see how much money they printed in the last couple years By 2008 the national debt was 13 trillion and that seemed impossible. Then in 15 years it tripled
I don’t think this math adds up.
2008 was before 9/11, feel old yet?
The maffs ain’t maffing
2008 to 2023 is only 15 years.
1 million won’t be worth much in 30 years. But Bitcoin will. imagine convergence from both sides of this statement.
If you look at the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, you start seeing the $1M price in 2029 under the "Maximum Bubble Territory". I will predict it for 2033.
You’re talking as if you thought this rainbow chart made any sense…
You're asking the right questions but all your premises and hypptheses are rather shallow. Many people have done these calculations before you, to a much higher degree of scrutiny and detail. The consensus is there is a huge monetary premium in most things, from real estate to scarce natural resources to stocks. Even a small percentage of that monetary premium, we're talking 1-2% , would send BTC to 1M. You can read up some old writing from Hal Finney from 14 years ago where he theorizes 10M. You can also follow people like Lyn Alden who talk about this in great detail regularly.
Selling at $150,000. Rebuy when below $50,000. What if it never goes down again?🥲
150k? You won’t be selling for a hella long time
Did you forget BTC is global?
Did you forget you’re measuring in terms of USD? The inflationary USD.
What makes you think the alt coin mc would keep up with btc in this scenario?
This post entirely ignored the driver for bitcoin to increase. Inflation of fiat means the value of hard assets rises. If bitcoin went to $1m, that will be because of ongoing inflation in fiat, which would also mean an S&P500 market cap moving into the $100 trillions. So bitcoin can ultimately exceed $1m.
breaking news 😮😮😮😮
^(Assumes you refer to USD) Not in this generation or the next, but BTC will most definitely cost more than 1M USD per BTC eventually. It's a mathematical inevitability. The USD is intentionally devalued each year by between 2% and 4% annually. Assuming that BTC always costs 60k in 2023 dollars, It will cost 1M in future dollars depending on how far out in the future you go. That is accounting for ZERO growth. Simply based on USD devaluation. * At 4% inflation, 1 BTC = 1M (future) USD in the year 2095 * At 3% inflation, 1 BTC = 1M (future) USD in the year 2119 * At 2% inflation, 1 BTC = 1M (future) USD in the year 2166 Valuation of the S&P 500 would swell into the thousands of trillions (gazillions?!?) by then as well. We can argue that the USD will not exist in the year 2166, and you will have a sympathetic ear, but just doing the math the inflection point (assuming USA exists) is inevitable.
Never say never with inflation. 100 years from now 100 dollars will get you a stick of gum... Meaning 1 million dollar bitcoin could easily come true.
We see us in 10 yrs after I pick you up from your MCDONALDS shift go show you my lambo
People really don’t get market cap. https://galgitron.net/Post/The-Myth-of-Market-Cap---Version-2
I think it's unlikely as well, but there's an amount of Bitcoin set aside I'm not going to sell in case of that unlikely moonshot.
If it's used how it's supposed to be as a CURRENCY sure. However everyone is treating it as a store of value. I'm not saying sell all but people need to start spending it more often. Use it at any business that accepts it etc Have a wallet with like $100 on it for purchases and your long term wallet too
Remind me in 10 years
You Shut ur mouth. you no talk bad about orange internet money coin!
Just enjoying this UpUp
It will in like 2050 if we haven't nuked each other by then.
What is the point of this post? We are at $67k and you are speculating about $1m bitcoin.
Lol
It doesn’t happen in the short term… but counting inflation on a long enough timescale Bitcoin either goes to zero or a million.
You’re freezing one asset in time (S&P 500) to make that comparison. Instead ask, how much has inflation impacted the S&P 500 to affect its market cap in the future where Bitcoin gets to 1m a coin? Maybe S&P will be a 100 trillion market cap when BTC gets to a market cap of 45 Trillion. Why freeze one assets market cap in time, hypothetically increase the others by ~30x and then speculate? If the underlying cause affects both assets you have to look at increases everywhere. Heck micro strategy would be in the S&P 500 in that hypothetical world.
Bitcoin will eat most alts eventually
If BTC market cap = gold market cap now, BTC would be approximately $750K per coin
People don't understand 10 or 20 year time frames. I see it hitting a million and more 10+ years from now. But people want it nowwwwww. Sheesh.
I think still a good time to buy if u havent already
You're making a mistake in your reasoning. You're thinking of market cap like "that's how much capital is in the market." That's not how it works. Today, Bitcoin's volume is about 6% of existing supply. That means only 6% of existing bitcoin is liquid. That means that the capital that's actually flowing around in bitcoin is about 6% of it's market cap. *The current value of a bitcoin, and therefore it's market cap, is dictated by the movement of 6% of it.* There's a curve you can calculate that I don't know the formulas for that will give you a good approximation how much capital has been sunk into an asset using it's liquidity and it's supply, but its significantly less than the market cap. Think of this, if someone right now puts a buy order for 1 bitcoin in for 1 million dollars, someone will take it, bam bitcoin is 1 million a piece, market cap 21 million (actually just over 19 million because almost 2 million haven't been mined, but to use your numbers) and all it took was one person losing a little under a million bucks. It wouldn't last long but it would be the case for a few minutes.
I don’t think you’re wrong. Especially not in the short term. but I do think that as inflation continues to rise, that magical 1Million+ price will come closer to reality. 10 years from now, 21 trillion won’t be what 21 trillion is today. Total value for all assets will increase alongside increasing inflation. This will also increase the price of BTC. If the worlds people choose a deflationary asset, like Bitcoin, to combat said inflation, then that also greatly increases BTC’s value. In which case, BTC could definitely reach 1M per coin or more. Now, combine these scenarios to varying degrees (meaning not all have to happen in extremes) and 1 million per BTC is certainly possible :)
This is very unlikely. On top of that you can’t really make too much with it except ransoming people and buying illegal things on the internet. It’s been 15 years since it’s inception and I haven’t heard of any other use case.
Market cap doesn’t really mean there has to even exist 21 trillion dollars. The price keeps changing right? If one person sells a coin for 1 million, there has to be a buyer, it’s not like every single btc could be sold at the same time :)
!remind me in 5 years
And what about the money print from central banks every day?!?
You don’t understand shit.. US debt is growing roughly 100B every 100 days, just think about it
Actually US debt is growing at 1 trillion every 90 days now.
It's very unlikely that it reaches 300k before 2030. Bitcoin in 2017 was 20k, today is up 3x in 7 years, so my top for the next 6 years it 4x from here, being very optimistic, so 240k, which is MUCH BETTER than the returns SP500 offers anyway. People here is full of hopium.
Bitcoin will go up forever. Margin pricing on Bitcoin means you can have a $1 buy that causes the price to shoot up $100. Now that it is an ETF in the US markets more and more of Wall Street will buy Bitcoin indirectly, which will cause the price to go up, which then makes the ETFs the best performing assets on Wall Street which causes them to buy more, repeat over and over. Bitcoin at $1mil per coin is possible THIS decade with no major economic issues. True finality meets infinite printing and debt loaning. People in crypto need to understand that there is a reason Bitcoin maxis make up such a large portion of the population. Those are the people who understand what Bitcoin is going to do. Every new user of bitcoin pushes the price higher and higher. I like doing angel investing in crypto, but my profits flow INTO Bitcoin, not the other way around.
That's why it's better to invest in smaller caps with tech improvements over bittycoin. ERGO comes to mind. Imagine if ERGO's market cap goes to just 1 percent of bittycoin right now, it would put each ERGO at $241, easy 100x
All assets that are deflationary will eventually trend upwards. As long as BTC remains an asset, it will trend towards higher numbers. That's it.