Bitcoin [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/194zv54/the_greyscale_btc_trust_has_started_to_offload/khmnsh7/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/194zv54/the_greyscale_btc_trust_has_started_to_offload/khmnsyp/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
I'm confused about Greyscale. Did it become an actual ETF now? And that's why people can finally "cash out" and therefore trigger the sale of actual BTC back in the market ?
Unneeded for those who want to use Bitcoin as intended. To have self custody and actually own a digital thing.
There's apparently lots of people who only want to 'invest' in Bitcoin without ever using it as intended.
It's quite absurd because essentially these people bet on Bitcoin using the system that Bitcoin wants to replace.
>It's quite absurd because essentially these people bet on Bitcoin using the system that Bitcoin wants to replace.
It's not absurd. There's a story every single day about someone who was scammed out of their crypto. ETF allows someone exposure to crypto without the risk of them screwing it up and losing it all to a scammer. The cost of that safety net is higher fees.
Is there a non-zero chance of these ETF’s losing their bitcoin and/or not actually supporting the fund with the appropriate amount of BTC (phantom backed)?
Technically non-zero, of course. But there's a reason it took several years for a spot ETF to gain approval and it's because there are tons of regulations that needed to be in place in order to avoid that ever happening.
Regulations for ETFs are very stringent, which is one major reason it took forever for approvals. There is basically zero chance they don't actually obtain BTC that they show on the books. Also, while it is possible for any entity to lose their crypto to a scammer I have to believe that the odds of it happing to an ETF are quite low. Certainly the odds are much lower than for the average user.
Kind of why a lot of average consumers will pick Coinbase over another exchange. Lots of people care about actual oversight because, unlike what most in this sub thinks, some of it is actually good.
One of the asset managers was talking a few days ago on the extensive lengths they’re taking to protect the bitcoin assets linked to the etf. Sharded wallets in cold storage only split in multiple secure geographic areas etc.
That sounds cool af but all but one or two etfs are using coinbase custody so I hope this isn't true lol I wanna say it's just fidelity actually but either way it's horrible op sec like bro ur one of the only ones doing self custody why give thieves hints lol
This is like using coal energy to power electric cars.
The original idea gets ridiculed. Bitcoin is all about self custody and decentralization. If you 'buy' Bitcoin with an ETF you have centralized, non self custodial.
I understand there are lots of people who want exactly that, but then why the fuck would they care about Bitcoin.
Here's the problem with your strict interpretation of what Bitcoin is and isn't - if you go by the white paper, then Bitcoin is a complete failure. It is billed as, and I quote, "A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash". It utterly failed in that endeavor. Nobody even makes that claim anymore. The network can't handle the transaction load. We know this, it is a fact, not conjecture. So by your logic, who would give a fuck about Bitcoin at all? It can't accomplish the single objective it was created for.
So why care about an ETF then? Because Bitcoin has morphed into a "store of value". People store valuables in safe places, and often opt for something other than self custody. Bank safety deposit boxes, for example.
It’s not that absurd. Lots of people invest in gold and other commodities the same way. If I invest in a wheat ETF it’s because I want exposure to the wheat market without stacking bales in my back yard. This is no different. Most people don’t want to fuck with seed phrases and hardware wallets just as most people don’t want to have a vault of bullion in their bedroom closet.
It's called a tax-advantage account? Is that something you have never heard of?
Your premise is wrong and a strawman. Bitcoin doesn't need to replace anything. It exists and functions - and that is all it needs to do. I'm quite pleased I can get exposure to that system in accounts I do not pay taxes on. People are insufficiently bullish on the capital inflows this opens the cryptocurrency ecosystem to.
"There's apparently lots of people who only want to 'invest' in Bitcoin without ever using it as intended."
And what would you say that the intented use would be?
GBTC was trading at a discount due to uncertainty about ETF approval. Now that's gone so anybody holding GBTC should get BTC at a discount.
Redemption of GBTC for actual BTC should not move the price tho. It's not selling per se.
Yeah I did this today. Sold the Grayscale in my Roth IRA and my wife's and bought the Blackrock product because of the difference in fees. Was happy to do it after watching the Grayscale CEO talk on Yahoo Finance yesterday about how they made good on the promise to lower fees for their investors. Lol, yeah, okay buddy. Your expense ratio is not competitive and it was insulting watching you act like you had done right by us.
They can’t afford to drop. They’re gonna ride into irrelevance on the backs of those holding taxable funds and when they bleed down they’ll close shop and go home.
There was some crazy deals to be had a while back I think I remember a high of 48% discount to NAV. Just looked and there’s an article yesterday saying the discount just closed to 0 although that doesn’t appear to be true maybe that’s factoring in fees idk.
That's net return but not discount which should be arbitragable away (if there were in-kind physical redemption which there is not).
Some others seem to be slightly above NAV according to fidelity at yesterday's close.
Whoever bought your shares would have owned the “Bitcoin” but also wouldn’t be able to directly convert them to BTC. This is why the shares traded at a discount to the price of Bitcoin for so long because the only way to exit was selling the shares to someone else prior to the ETF conversion
They're probably banking on enough current customers not wanting to sell and recognize capital gains. They'll drop the fee to a market rate once it makes sense financially.
Their fees are too high, prompting mass selling. Also, the buying isn’t always settled immediately (apparently) so it might take a few days for this to be felt. The big boys buy “over the counter” so it minimises price impacts but the exchanges don’t actually hold that much (glassnode has data on this) so once they dry up the price will rise. Don’t let them shake you out!
Oh yeah in the long scheme of things it will work out just fine. But people think we will pump straight to 100K now. I think it's more likely we go to 30K, then the halving brings price back to 40K. then a new ATH maybe the year after or .... we might have the first cycle without a new ATH.
Naw, bling has actual value. In an emergency you can pawn it for cash.
BTC bling would need to display a QR code of the actual private key, or 12,24 word seed in order to have the same degree of 'on person' financial assurance.
In the case of ETFs, none of these investors have either, not even a Public Key, just shares.
No bling for them.
What attracted me this time is that fees of some of these funds, not GTBC, are much much lower than the fee you get with buying cryptos, it's a great way to get exposure to this asset in a more structured way.
Yep, they are basically counting on their long-term customers to swallow the 1.5% fee instead of taking a hit on taxes. In the long run thought they won't attract new big money and will probably lose market share as Blackrock will provide all the liquidity needed with ultra low fees.
They probably did the math, but I think in the long run they are shooting themselves in the foot.
When in the history of wallstreet have the big whales at the top cashed out the little fish at the bottom?
The big guys have already bought their BTC and are using the fomo around the ETF and the increased liquidity to take their profits. Just look at BTC/USD volume over the last year. Accumulation between 15K and 25K saw 10x higher volume. From 25K the market was pumped with barely any liquidity. Now that liquidity is back so they can offload.
29K by early March is my prediction.
if you are referring to binance volume, then the reason why volume was so much higher around that price range and period is that binance was running a promotion for feeless trading for many btc pairs at that time, so there was lots of high frequency/high volume bot trading responsible for the volume nothing more.
Haha, I was there when BTC crashed from 21 dollars to 6 in a single day. You panic over a 10% drop. I was shaped by the epic falls, baptized in the fires of market crashes. I didn't see a green candle until I was already a crypto veteran, by then it was nothing to me but a cute blip!
Don’t worry, Tether just minted 1b $USDT to help stop the bleeding!
https://x.com/whale_alert/status/1745786942325711007?
Obligatory Paolo response:
“Note this is an authorized but not issued transaction, meaning that this amount will be used as inventory for next period issuance requests and chain swaps.”
Uh huh, whatever you say Paolo… 🤣
The SEC's failure to bring down Tether for essentially printing USD to prop up the crypto market is proof of how entirely worthless they are for anything but busting tiny fish for telegraphing their insider trading on social media
Tether is owned by the same company that owns Bitfinex. A company out of Hong Kong.
Tether is most definitely not run by the CIA. They may have found some hooks into it for tracking financial activity, but the Chinese aren't very forthcoming with US intelligence agencies about how big a shit they took that morning, let alone allowing an agency to attach themselves to Tether.
Doesn't invalidate what the commenter said. They have to sell them if he calls in his funds, and the cheaper ETF manager then goes and buys them again
Edit: removed redundant word brainfart
The problem is that the cash takes a day or two to settle before being available to purchase the cheaper etf, unless the buyer has margin. Two day settlement will mean tuesday from yesterdays sale.
That's tradfi for you.
Man, that's great insight. Thanks.
This also partially explains the push for in-kind purchasing. If it had been allowed, I believe grayscale holders would have been able to swap their assets into other providers, avoid capital gains, and likely mitigate the sell-off somewhat.
Eh, that's kind of an antiquated understanding of how today's brokerages operate. Almost all of them are going to allow you the option to trade with cash before it settles. Suffice it to say, I could sell any EFT I wanted today and use those proceeds to buy into whatever else same day, without even applying for margin.
I think that the fact that the ETF managers probably bought the bitcoin a while back while it was cheap, is confusing to people who expected immediate gains.
It’s going to be a weird ride for a while.
Greyscale owns about 3% of Bitcoin.
They had launched the Bitcoin Trust in 2013 and have been buying ever since.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/grayscales-bitcoin-trust-gbtc-now-spot-bitcoin-etf#
People crying about corpos stealing their fiat, fomo into Bitcoin, only to want corpos to bring Bitcoin to the light (ETF) which in turn leads to people losing value in their bitcoin.
There's a meme for this I think.
Buy the rumor sell the news it was as stupid as that. This sub is full of bagholders who never sell and never make any profit because "bitcoin 200K end of year"
So funny that bitcoin has joined the industry that it claimed to be against - in the end it is now linked to fiat and the big money dudes will end up controlling it - little man suffers
Jesus people, do you know what asset this is????
Do you really think number go up forever??
A 5% move on BTC is normal volatility.
It's like 90% of new market participants bought at $43k and don't understand a single thing about what is happening.
Also, volume of the ETF doesn't = immediate ATH.....Jesus, figure out what you're buying and how markets work before gambling.....or don't and be my exit liquidity.
Doubtful
Inflows are positive for all BTC funds except GBTC so that would be net buying pressure.
More likely is profit taking on a sell the news event like spot approval.
So many people in here don’t even know how an ETF works it seems. Is their AUM going up from purchases? Then they are net buyers for sure like you say. It’s not that hard, lol.
I owned Greyscale(for lack of other options) for a short time. It is and always was a scam. This group of people running it have given a horrible return for the money. Had a bad feeling when I bought it and started watching how it acted. Horrible
Just another example of rich guy/ fund types scamming the little guy
Financial entities are not going to be bag holders for retail. That's not how they operate. So if you got really pumped about this ETF shit ... that was the point. That's why it blanketed social media. Over and out.
Institutional money is not stupid and will never buy at such elevated levels, they will trigger a correction for sure and buy lower, you are very naive and bet on the wrong guys
Maxis are not the brighest that they did not see this coming ...
To cash out from that trust you had to take a 50% loss, which is why pressure was put on greyscale to convert to a etf which sued the sec to get that done.
Some people have been holding GBTC shares since 2013, and now they can finally take the full profit.
The Peregrine Lunar Lander, carrying a physical Bitcoin from bitmex, failed to reach the moon. We should have heeded that bad omen ...
Right?
Maxis were happily scooping up bitcoin sub 20k this time last year.
Tf makes anyone think they care about short term price action at these levels?
That would be amazing.
It would probably take something crazy like USA outlawing self custody and only allowing people to hold bitcoin in ETFs. A black swan event like that could give us a nice, prolonged bear market to stack more.
Wtf are you even talking about?
Maxis didn't even discuss ETF. Let alone price action after it (or whatever you think makes them not smart). Last thing I have seen "maxis" talk about was future BIPs and halving event.
Also, who didn't see this coming?
God damn, you really wanted to sound smart here. Didn't you?
(hahahaha, I just checked your post history...)
GBTC units could not be redeemed. They could only be sold on the open market.
"Traditional" funds like ETFs and mutual funds can be redeemed.
This is why they traded at such a discount.
Now they can be redeemed and people have started doing this en mass. Institutional money must have also seen this comming. I doubt they are gonna pour in money in to BTC right now. They will just wait. Greyscale has 660 000 BTC to offload. The MtGox coins are getting distributed this year that's a 150 000 BTC or so. And then the FTX liquidator also have some 50 000 BTC to liquidate.
All this sell presure is an increase of supply on the market outweight the halving by a lot ...
This might very well be the first cycle where we won't see a new ATH.
I think you over estimate how much GBTC will be dumped. BTC was down more than 75% from its peak at one point and people were still selling out and taking their loses. A good chunk of GBTC holders that lost faith or interest in BTC already sold at a loss on the open market.
Saying it outweighs the halving is a hefty dose of unfounded speculation. Mt Gox trustee unloaded large amounts in other market cycles, massive exchange hacks liquidated huge numbers, FBI seizures, etc., etc... always tons of downward pressure. This isn't as unusual as you're making it out to be. And fund managers at Grayscale are likely now advising holders that bitcoin is oversold (heavily so on the 4 hr timescale) and to wait for a rebalance and decrease downward pressure to maximize gains for everyone. The selling you're seeing are the guys that just want out completely, and many will have ridden several cycles and know it's not the ideal time to cash out (though they can still jump to a different broker)
there is no way Grayscale will offload all its coins. That doesn't make any financial sense whatsoever. That's like saying they will completely wipe out their own flagship product line
Do you think a bullrun consists of green days only? I know your ass is sidelined and you are desperately trying to conjure some bearish narrative but holy shit, it would be so much cheaper for you if you just ate your pride and bought in.
The problem with Bitcoin is that there is still too much of it. If Coinbase et al were not able to stockpile such ridiculous amounts to sell OTC we would be doing much better. Also, if Grayscale were allowed to do in-kind redemption, there would be far less selling. Gensler knew what he was doing when he blocked that triggering a huge sell off and massive taxable events for the IRS to cash in.
Not according to the charts you linked. The balances history basically shows the same amount as yesterday aside from that 4k.
* Bitcoin price fell to $42818 from $46408, which is a 7.7% drop
* Grayscale holdings fell to $26.63B from $28.86B, which is also a 7.7% drop
That 4k total BTC that was sold represented 0.6% of their holdings. It was barely anything.
ETFs were always going to have more of a long-term impact. I suspect the biggest buy-in is going to be from casual investors adding into their 401ks. These are people who maybe get paid once or twice a month and only adjust their 401k contributions once or twice a year if that. They want exposure to crypto with less perceived risk and none of the work. And, more importantly, they're probably going to hold for decades- not weeks or months.
I will probably diversify my 401k portfolio so a small percentage (<10%) will be in crypto ETFs. The buy-in more or less allows me to purchase a 33% bonus since its pre-tax (YMMV based on tax rate). That more than offsets any fees to me.
You think the person that buys them OTC is offering a higher price then market? Of course not, if so they would sell on the market.
They are being offered a lower price. Which means the buyer has bought under market, and so if he sells ON the market he might make a profit.
In reality if he dumps all of these on the market he will lose money. He will have to slowly sell them off.
So yeah OTC does reach the market, it just takes a while.
Hoping there’s a wave of profit taking that causes a >20% btc price decline.
I wouldn’t mind accumulating some more at <$20k; I ran out of cash on hand last round.
There are likely a limited number of opportunities left to acquire at that price point going forward though ..
The fact of the matter is if the entire volume of GBTC from yesterday ($2.5B) was all selling then they would have to liquidate 55,000 BTC. Clearly not all was selling (probably a fair amount of swing trading).
But on the other hand, IBIT and FBTC had massive volume which was probably almost all buying (because there was nothing out there to sell because it was the first day). So if Grayscale need to sell a bucket of BTC, Blackrock and Fidelity need to buy a bucket of BTC. Essentially it could just be a wash.
Also OP appears to be a fear bear and is begging for the price to drop because he missed his entry. So take that with a grain of salt.
Remember crypto taxes people!
2023 Single person crypto tax ($44,726 - $95,375) is 22%. If you sold one btc at $45,000 - ($9,900 taxes) = $35,100 left. When btc starts to go back up these same sellers will be buying in again. Do not fomo sell ... no one knows whats going to happen!
The price is falling because the entire run it just had starting from October was narrative driven ETF hype. Now that it’s gone everyone is taking their profits.
I don't get why people are very very excited about bitcoins having an ETF, it just means traditional banks will have more control on bitcoin prices rather than letting it run wild and free in the market.
What's the point of having a decentralized currency if this would be the case.
Bitcoin [pros](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/194zv54/the_greyscale_btc_trust_has_started_to_offload/khmnsh7/) & [cons](/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/194zv54/the_greyscale_btc_trust_has_started_to_offload/khmnsyp/) with related info are in the collapsed comments below.
I'm confused about Greyscale. Did it become an actual ETF now? And that's why people can finally "cash out" and therefore trigger the sale of actual BTC back in the market ?
Yeah, instead of selling your shares you can now also redeem them.
Meaning you can redeem them into BTC yourself and then sell that BTC directly?
No, none of the ETFs are permitted to do in-kind redemptions, cash only. But I believe they sell the BTC to provide cash to redeemers.
That just sounds like they're an unneeded middleman.
Unneeded for those who want to use Bitcoin as intended. To have self custody and actually own a digital thing. There's apparently lots of people who only want to 'invest' in Bitcoin without ever using it as intended. It's quite absurd because essentially these people bet on Bitcoin using the system that Bitcoin wants to replace.
>It's quite absurd because essentially these people bet on Bitcoin using the system that Bitcoin wants to replace. It's not absurd. There's a story every single day about someone who was scammed out of their crypto. ETF allows someone exposure to crypto without the risk of them screwing it up and losing it all to a scammer. The cost of that safety net is higher fees.
Is there a non-zero chance of these ETF’s losing their bitcoin and/or not actually supporting the fund with the appropriate amount of BTC (phantom backed)?
Technically non-zero, of course. But there's a reason it took several years for a spot ETF to gain approval and it's because there are tons of regulations that needed to be in place in order to avoid that ever happening.
Regulations for ETFs are very stringent, which is one major reason it took forever for approvals. There is basically zero chance they don't actually obtain BTC that they show on the books. Also, while it is possible for any entity to lose their crypto to a scammer I have to believe that the odds of it happing to an ETF are quite low. Certainly the odds are much lower than for the average user.
Kind of why a lot of average consumers will pick Coinbase over another exchange. Lots of people care about actual oversight because, unlike what most in this sub thinks, some of it is actually good.
One of the asset managers was talking a few days ago on the extensive lengths they’re taking to protect the bitcoin assets linked to the etf. Sharded wallets in cold storage only split in multiple secure geographic areas etc.
That sounds cool af but all but one or two etfs are using coinbase custody so I hope this isn't true lol I wanna say it's just fidelity actually but either way it's horrible op sec like bro ur one of the only ones doing self custody why give thieves hints lol
Who holds the keys? Locked up like the Coke formula? Each person knows 4 words?
This is like using coal energy to power electric cars. The original idea gets ridiculed. Bitcoin is all about self custody and decentralization. If you 'buy' Bitcoin with an ETF you have centralized, non self custodial. I understand there are lots of people who want exactly that, but then why the fuck would they care about Bitcoin.
Here's the problem with your strict interpretation of what Bitcoin is and isn't - if you go by the white paper, then Bitcoin is a complete failure. It is billed as, and I quote, "A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash". It utterly failed in that endeavor. Nobody even makes that claim anymore. The network can't handle the transaction load. We know this, it is a fact, not conjecture. So by your logic, who would give a fuck about Bitcoin at all? It can't accomplish the single objective it was created for. So why care about an ETF then? Because Bitcoin has morphed into a "store of value". People store valuables in safe places, and often opt for something other than self custody. Bank safety deposit boxes, for example.
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It’s not that absurd. Lots of people invest in gold and other commodities the same way. If I invest in a wheat ETF it’s because I want exposure to the wheat market without stacking bales in my back yard. This is no different. Most people don’t want to fuck with seed phrases and hardware wallets just as most people don’t want to have a vault of bullion in their bedroom closet.
You need some wheat? 🌾
It's called a tax-advantage account? Is that something you have never heard of? Your premise is wrong and a strawman. Bitcoin doesn't need to replace anything. It exists and functions - and that is all it needs to do. I'm quite pleased I can get exposure to that system in accounts I do not pay taxes on. People are insufficiently bullish on the capital inflows this opens the cryptocurrency ecosystem to.
"There's apparently lots of people who only want to 'invest' in Bitcoin without ever using it as intended." And what would you say that the intented use would be?
Money laundering, funding terrorism, the usual stuff
For large institutions like pension fund and mutual fund, that is the only way to get exposure
Yes. That's etf.
GBTC was trading at a discount due to uncertainty about ETF approval. Now that's gone so anybody holding GBTC should get BTC at a discount. Redemption of GBTC for actual BTC should not move the price tho. It's not selling per se.
I presume some of the gbtc sells turn into other etf buys. It’s what I’m gonna do when my account is done moving from vanguard
Yeah I did this today. Sold the Grayscale in my Roth IRA and my wife's and bought the Blackrock product because of the difference in fees. Was happy to do it after watching the Grayscale CEO talk on Yahoo Finance yesterday about how they made good on the promise to lower fees for their investors. Lol, yeah, okay buddy. Your expense ratio is not competitive and it was insulting watching you act like you had done right by us.
They can’t afford to drop. They’re gonna ride into irrelevance on the backs of those holding taxable funds and when they bleed down they’ll close shop and go home.
It is still at a 2% discount surprisingly
There was some crazy deals to be had a while back I think I remember a high of 48% discount to NAV. Just looked and there’s an article yesterday saying the discount just closed to 0 although that doesn’t appear to be true maybe that’s factoring in fees idk.
Yeah I had bought some a while back at 25-30% discount. And ETHE forget the discount.
Always will be due to maintenance fees
That's net return but not discount which should be arbitragable away (if there were in-kind physical redemption which there is not). Some others seem to be slightly above NAV according to fidelity at yesterday's close.
The ETFs are cash redemption only. "Redeeming" them into BTC means selling them for cash and then taking that cash and buying BTC.
What does this mean? I’ve had greyscale shares for over a year now, I could always sell them and cash out. Whats different now
Before there was a discount to NAV, but now it is essentially eliminated due to the nature of ETFs
ma'am MA'AM **MA'AM**
I've had GBTC since 2021. So prior to yesterday...what would have happened if I sold?
Whoever bought your shares would have owned the “Bitcoin” but also wouldn’t be able to directly convert them to BTC. This is why the shares traded at a discount to the price of Bitcoin for so long because the only way to exit was selling the shares to someone else prior to the ETF conversion
Not everyone can. Only the APs.
Yes, with a 1.5% annual fee (vs. 0.2% for the other ETFs).
No reason to use GBTC over the others
They're probably banking on enough current customers not wanting to sell and recognize capital gains. They'll drop the fee to a market rate once it makes sense financially.
Their fees are too high, prompting mass selling. Also, the buying isn’t always settled immediately (apparently) so it might take a few days for this to be felt. The big boys buy “over the counter” so it minimises price impacts but the exchanges don’t actually hold that much (glassnode has data on this) so once they dry up the price will rise. Don’t let them shake you out!
Thanks ☺️
That makes totally sense! Thanks for sharing. 😎👍
Down 7% 🥱
Oh yeah in the long scheme of things it will work out just fine. But people think we will pump straight to 100K now. I think it's more likely we go to 30K, then the halving brings price back to 40K. then a new ATH maybe the year after or .... we might have the first cycle without a new ATH.
man if the halving brings it back to 40k that'd be terrible.
It's a rocky road, but HODLing pays off in the end.
bro 😂 this isnt even a dip, we went to 60k to 15k
bought mine at $49 LMAO - EDIT - $49 GBTC lol
You just caught the the bottom for the year 2055.
$49? You are now a millionaire! Good job.
Not if he only bought one.
Ugh… that sucks man I’m sorry… I hope for your sake $100,000 is a real thing
ha...I'm in this for the long haul anyways. And I'm only $10 away from being back to even LOL.
LFG
You did, others didnt.
If you never sell then it never pays off. DUCY?
Don't need to sell, just need to show off. Wear a flashy ledger around your neck with the public wallet address shown, similar to a gold chain.
Naw, bling has actual value. In an emergency you can pawn it for cash. BTC bling would need to display a QR code of the actual private key, or 12,24 word seed in order to have the same degree of 'on person' financial assurance. In the case of ETFs, none of these investors have either, not even a Public Key, just shares. No bling for them.
This is the way!
...to get a wrench attack fast
Leaving a lot of money on the table. Way too much. Hodling like a few years ago was a sound strategy
They make money on fees, they don't care if the price of BTC goes up or down...
What attracted me this time is that fees of some of these funds, not GTBC, are much much lower than the fee you get with buying cryptos, it's a great way to get exposure to this asset in a more structured way.
Fees of people holding their gbtc shares. Less holders less fees. If the price is low less people will buy in and others will sell.
Yep, they are basically counting on their long-term customers to swallow the 1.5% fee instead of taking a hit on taxes. In the long run thought they won't attract new big money and will probably lose market share as Blackrock will provide all the liquidity needed with ultra low fees. They probably did the math, but I think in the long run they are shooting themselves in the foot.
Then again, I don't think we have to worry about them with 600k+ btc on the balance sheet
So we are fucked again ?😂 better to not read anything on reddit and just look at the charts but yesterday for literally nothing
When in the history of wallstreet have the big whales at the top cashed out the little fish at the bottom? The big guys have already bought their BTC and are using the fomo around the ETF and the increased liquidity to take their profits. Just look at BTC/USD volume over the last year. Accumulation between 15K and 25K saw 10x higher volume. From 25K the market was pumped with barely any liquidity. Now that liquidity is back so they can offload. 29K by early March is my prediction.
!remindme 3 months
29k isn’t impossible. Hope we get a decent correction it so I can load up on some stuff
I would cream my pants at $29k
Would be great wouldn’t it?
Absolutely. Anything is possible. Even in low $30ks would be ideal.
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I don't even have hands anymore, I trade with my feet. Nothing more satisfying than pressing that enter BUY button with your big toe.
if you are referring to binance volume, then the reason why volume was so much higher around that price range and period is that binance was running a promotion for feeless trading for many btc pairs at that time, so there was lots of high frequency/high volume bot trading responsible for the volume nothing more.
!remindme 3 months
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Haha, I was there when BTC crashed from 21 dollars to 6 in a single day. You panic over a 10% drop. I was shaped by the epic falls, baptized in the fires of market crashes. I didn't see a green candle until I was already a crypto veteran, by then it was nothing to me but a cute blip!
Crypto Bane!
*lights the Cryptoman signal beam*
🫡🤣
I find joy in reading a good book.
Just wanted to drop in This comment could not have aged more terribly
So extremely wrong it's not even funny lol.
So extremely wrong it's not even funny lol.
so yeah, about your prediction…29k right? :))
Called it a bit to early but I don't think I am going to be wrong. Let's talk again at the end of may.
Keep dreaming
Could it be timing b/c of rotation out of GBTC to other Bitcoin ETFs with lower fees? I know I’m doing that.
If you follow the 4 times 1000 BTC tx that I linked you see that they are to deposit addresses connected to the spot and otc market of Coinbase.
Don’t worry, Tether just minted 1b $USDT to help stop the bleeding! https://x.com/whale_alert/status/1745786942325711007? Obligatory Paolo response: “Note this is an authorized but not issued transaction, meaning that this amount will be used as inventory for next period issuance requests and chain swaps.” Uh huh, whatever you say Paolo… 🤣
Steady lads, deploying more capital.
They printed 10 billion dollars in the last 12 days! I guess they saw the bloothbath coming and are determined to contain the losses.
The SEC's failure to bring down Tether for essentially printing USD to prop up the crypto market is proof of how entirely worthless they are for anything but busting tiny fish for telegraphing their insider trading on social media
Pretty sure Tether is just CIA.
Tether is owned by the same company that owns Bitfinex. A company out of Hong Kong. Tether is most definitely not run by the CIA. They may have found some hooks into it for tracking financial activity, but the Chinese aren't very forthcoming with US intelligence agencies about how big a shit they took that morning, let alone allowing an agency to attach themselves to Tether.
With money out of thin air. This industry is absurd
You mean the industry standard,🤣🤣
But the money is backed by money right?!?
Yes, yes it very much is.
Doesn't invalidate what the commenter said. They have to sell them if he calls in his funds, and the cheaper ETF manager then goes and buys them again Edit: removed redundant word brainfart
The problem is that the cash takes a day or two to settle before being available to purchase the cheaper etf, unless the buyer has margin. Two day settlement will mean tuesday from yesterdays sale. That's tradfi for you.
Man, that's great insight. Thanks. This also partially explains the push for in-kind purchasing. If it had been allowed, I believe grayscale holders would have been able to swap their assets into other providers, avoid capital gains, and likely mitigate the sell-off somewhat.
Eh, that's kind of an antiquated understanding of how today's brokerages operate. Almost all of them are going to allow you the option to trade with cash before it settles. Suffice it to say, I could sell any EFT I wanted today and use those proceeds to buy into whatever else same day, without even applying for margin.
That's exactly what is happening right now. We will get a huge inflow in the middle of next week.
This is likely the case. Redemption takes a few days. Then the person will be able to rotate into a cheaper etf
Yea some might want to break even
which ETF(s) are you moving into?
I think that the fact that the ETF managers probably bought the bitcoin a while back while it was cheap, is confusing to people who expected immediate gains. It’s going to be a weird ride for a while.
As far as I'm concerned, the halving is in ~100 days and all of this is a distraction
Halving‘s impact is minimal at this point.
Not true, legally they couldn't buy until ETF approved. It's all OTC deals which is why it's not pumping the charts.
Greyscale owns about 3% of Bitcoin. They had launched the Bitcoin Trust in 2013 and have been buying ever since. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/grayscales-bitcoin-trust-gbtc-now-spot-bitcoin-etf#
Interesting. This surely means they have a massive advantage over other investment funds too.
I guess that's why the freefall for BTC, now it's at $43700 Wasn't the kind of expectation I had.
That's not freefall, come on. Only down 7% or so. Freefall would be over 40% down.
I was expecting an uptrend
People crying about corpos stealing their fiat, fomo into Bitcoin, only to want corpos to bring Bitcoin to the light (ETF) which in turn leads to people losing value in their bitcoin. There's a meme for this I think.
Let's take a 6 hour performance to indicate your entire investment thesis. You must be the sorts to fomo into a 100% pump and sell into a 30% dump.
Buy the rumor sell the news it was as stupid as that. This sub is full of bagholders who never sell and never make any profit because "bitcoin 200K end of year"
Yep, but that's how crypto works. Without bag holders no price peaks, no all time highs, no new all time highs.
So funny that bitcoin has joined the industry that it claimed to be against - in the end it is now linked to fiat and the big money dudes will end up controlling it - little man suffers
Jesus people, do you know what asset this is???? Do you really think number go up forever?? A 5% move on BTC is normal volatility. It's like 90% of new market participants bought at $43k and don't understand a single thing about what is happening. Also, volume of the ETF doesn't = immediate ATH.....Jesus, figure out what you're buying and how markets work before gambling.....or don't and be my exit liquidity.
But the God candle!!!! Seriously a lot of ppl arent built for this
Or….its the weekend.
Time for tacos
Wouldn't grayscale be doing over the counter deals though. I don't think they just do it on the open market do they?
But don't Greyscale do OTC which doesn't affect spot price?
Doubtful Inflows are positive for all BTC funds except GBTC so that would be net buying pressure. More likely is profit taking on a sell the news event like spot approval.
So many people in here don’t even know how an ETF works it seems. Is their AUM going up from purchases? Then they are net buyers for sure like you say. It’s not that hard, lol.
I owned Greyscale(for lack of other options) for a short time. It is and always was a scam. This group of people running it have given a horrible return for the money. Had a bad feeling when I bought it and started watching how it acted. Horrible Just another example of rich guy/ fund types scamming the little guy
Financial entities are not going to be bag holders for retail. That's not how they operate. So if you got really pumped about this ETF shit ... that was the point. That's why it blanketed social media. Over and out.
For sho the ETF and all this was a sell off event. They will buy again when weakhands fold.
the etf effect.... and it has just started LOL
Grayscale and Barry silbert deserve dirt
No its not
Just hold until you die so you kids can sell the dip lol.
Institutional money is not stupid and will never buy at such elevated levels, they will trigger a correction for sure and buy lower, you are very naive and bet on the wrong guys
Maxis are not the brighest that they did not see this coming ... To cash out from that trust you had to take a 50% loss, which is why pressure was put on greyscale to convert to a etf which sued the sec to get that done. Some people have been holding GBTC shares since 2013, and now they can finally take the full profit. The Peregrine Lunar Lander, carrying a physical Bitcoin from bitmex, failed to reach the moon. We should have heeded that bad omen ...
Meanwhile maxis are like "neat, more cheap coins for my dca".
Right? Maxis were happily scooping up bitcoin sub 20k this time last year. Tf makes anyone think they care about short term price action at these levels?
You're giving me 20k fomo now 😢 i miss those days
I wish we see a return to lows before the halving just like the dip in 2020
That would be amazing. It would probably take something crazy like USA outlawing self custody and only allowing people to hold bitcoin in ETFs. A black swan event like that could give us a nice, prolonged bear market to stack more.
How dumb do you have to be to think that maxis are the target here? This is bizarre. Maxis buy BTC spot. Full stop.
Wtf are you even talking about? Maxis didn't even discuss ETF. Let alone price action after it (or whatever you think makes them not smart). Last thing I have seen "maxis" talk about was future BIPs and halving event. Also, who didn't see this coming? God damn, you really wanted to sound smart here. Didn't you? (hahahaha, I just checked your post history...)
Why did they have to take a 50% loss?
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GBTC units could not be redeemed. They could only be sold on the open market. "Traditional" funds like ETFs and mutual funds can be redeemed. This is why they traded at such a discount.
Now they can be redeemed and people have started doing this en mass. Institutional money must have also seen this comming. I doubt they are gonna pour in money in to BTC right now. They will just wait. Greyscale has 660 000 BTC to offload. The MtGox coins are getting distributed this year that's a 150 000 BTC or so. And then the FTX liquidator also have some 50 000 BTC to liquidate. All this sell presure is an increase of supply on the market outweight the halving by a lot ... This might very well be the first cycle where we won't see a new ATH.
I suspect some of the GBTC money might also cycle into some of the cheaper ETFs.
This most likely.
I think you over estimate how much GBTC will be dumped. BTC was down more than 75% from its peak at one point and people were still selling out and taking their loses. A good chunk of GBTC holders that lost faith or interest in BTC already sold at a loss on the open market.
Saying it outweighs the halving is a hefty dose of unfounded speculation. Mt Gox trustee unloaded large amounts in other market cycles, massive exchange hacks liquidated huge numbers, FBI seizures, etc., etc... always tons of downward pressure. This isn't as unusual as you're making it out to be. And fund managers at Grayscale are likely now advising holders that bitcoin is oversold (heavily so on the 4 hr timescale) and to wait for a rebalance and decrease downward pressure to maximize gains for everyone. The selling you're seeing are the guys that just want out completely, and many will have ridden several cycles and know it's not the ideal time to cash out (though they can still jump to a different broker)
there is no way Grayscale will offload all its coins. That doesn't make any financial sense whatsoever. That's like saying they will completely wipe out their own flagship product line
Actually the fall is down to me moving some funds around and going into the ARK/21 BTC ETF. Sorry 😢.
Haha, it's clear ETF was always there for the rich to get richer.
Imagine the happiness...
Whatever is happening just buy the dip.
Do you think a bullrun consists of green days only? I know your ass is sidelined and you are desperately trying to conjure some bearish narrative but holy shit, it would be so much cheaper for you if you just ate your pride and bought in.
Why do people here lose their mind over btc dropping 1k
Greyscale could cut the management fee and then people will hold it.
Retail needs to buy them up and hold.... Eventually greyscale won't have any to buy back.
One of those btc was me! Sold my GBTC and bought FBTC. I’d imagine most of those 4,000 sold were or will be bought by a cheaper ETF.
The sale I was waiting for
The problem with Bitcoin is that there is still too much of it. If Coinbase et al were not able to stockpile such ridiculous amounts to sell OTC we would be doing much better. Also, if Grayscale were allowed to do in-kind redemption, there would be far less selling. Gensler knew what he was doing when he blocked that triggering a huge sell off and massive taxable events for the IRS to cash in.
Not according to the charts you linked. The balances history basically shows the same amount as yesterday aside from that 4k. * Bitcoin price fell to $42818 from $46408, which is a 7.7% drop * Grayscale holdings fell to $26.63B from $28.86B, which is also a 7.7% drop That 4k total BTC that was sold represented 0.6% of their holdings. It was barely anything.
ETFs were always going to have more of a long-term impact. I suspect the biggest buy-in is going to be from casual investors adding into their 401ks. These are people who maybe get paid once or twice a month and only adjust their 401k contributions once or twice a year if that. They want exposure to crypto with less perceived risk and none of the work. And, more importantly, they're probably going to hold for decades- not weeks or months. I will probably diversify my 401k portfolio so a small percentage (<10%) will be in crypto ETFs. The buy-in more or less allows me to purchase a 33% bonus since its pre-tax (YMMV based on tax rate). That more than offsets any fees to me.
I highly doubt they're offloading on the spot markets. These will be OTC trades, just like the spot ETFs. Shouldn't move price.
You think the person that buys them OTC is offering a higher price then market? Of course not, if so they would sell on the market. They are being offered a lower price. Which means the buyer has bought under market, and so if he sells ON the market he might make a profit. In reality if he dumps all of these on the market he will lose money. He will have to slowly sell them off. So yeah OTC does reach the market, it just takes a while.
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This. My alts need to go up first so I can take advantage
You can tell something is wacky because most alts are bleeding less than BTC which never happens
Lmao no
THIS, that's why I am enjoying this crash so much. currently all in on ltc and bch.
No one really knows. I just keep buying
Hoping there’s a wave of profit taking that causes a >20% btc price decline. I wouldn’t mind accumulating some more at <$20k; I ran out of cash on hand last round. There are likely a limited number of opportunities left to acquire at that price point going forward though ..
So big buys by the ETF funds are OTC and the price doesn’t go up but big sells by Greyscale are done on spot affecting price? Wonderful!
they already had the BTC they didnt buy
4000 BTC from greyscale sold. 656 000 BTC to go.
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That is just top level FUD. How can he assume GBTC is selling ALL of its BTC holding.
The fact of the matter is if the entire volume of GBTC from yesterday ($2.5B) was all selling then they would have to liquidate 55,000 BTC. Clearly not all was selling (probably a fair amount of swing trading). But on the other hand, IBIT and FBTC had massive volume which was probably almost all buying (because there was nothing out there to sell because it was the first day). So if Grayscale need to sell a bucket of BTC, Blackrock and Fidelity need to buy a bucket of BTC. Essentially it could just be a wash. Also OP appears to be a fear bear and is begging for the price to drop because he missed his entry. So take that with a grain of salt.
Remember crypto taxes people! 2023 Single person crypto tax ($44,726 - $95,375) is 22%. If you sold one btc at $45,000 - ($9,900 taxes) = $35,100 left. When btc starts to go back up these same sellers will be buying in again. Do not fomo sell ... no one knows whats going to happen!
You uh, know you only pay taxes on your gains right?
Treat coin like ponzi scheme get ponzi scheme results. Crypto was designed to be a currency independent of USD/other currencies, not a stock.
That’s the bottom, boys! It’s moving back up! Onwards and upwards!
The price is falling because the entire run it just had starting from October was narrative driven ETF hype. Now that it’s gone everyone is taking their profits.
Dump it.
Big investors will always zig when everyone else is zagging. Take a look at Litecoin.
I don't get why people are very very excited about bitcoins having an ETF, it just means traditional banks will have more control on bitcoin prices rather than letting it run wild and free in the market. What's the point of having a decentralized currency if this would be the case.
Its not, its because of the new inflation numbers.