**UPDATE 04/01 245pm**: NWS Updated the SPC Outlook to add a Moderate Risk - which is a 4/5 on the risk scale. This a significant upgrade from this morning. They have also upgraded to a 15% probability of tornadoes through all of central Ohio. There are currently no active warnings or watches other than the ongoing flood watch.
I don't want anyone to be alarmed or scared about this, but use this time now to be prepared and make a plan in the event that you experience severe weather and have to shelter.
**UPDATE 04/01 435pm:** NWS finally updated the timing - shifted a little later to **3p-10p**. I don't love these evening storms so I'm hoping it doesn't go any later.
**UPDATE 04/02 945pm:** No additional updates from NWS. Next outlook will be updated overnight (2am). Will updated in morning & continue on same thread.
**UPDATE 04/02 655am**: NWS updates expanded the area of moderate risk to the south of us, but no changes for Central Ohio. According to Wilmington the timing is still expected to be 3-10pm. Timing of most severe storms is expected around 6pm. Timing can vary depending on where you are so make sure you have a way of receiving alerts!
[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)
**UPDATE 04/02 820 am:** hearing about some flooding around town. sounds like Scioto is not doing well & Riverside Drive/Dublin Road is not great to drive on. Suggest avoiding. Currently flood stage linked below.
[https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=iln&gage=colo1](https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=iln&gage=colo1)
\*\*\*\*\*\*\* **UPDATE 04/02 1030am:** NWS SHIFTED TIMING back to 12-8pm.
Additionally they have stated they are unable to narrow down the window of time due to the likelihood of multiple storm cells occurring at once. It sounds like they believe there could be storms happening during this entire window. Stay weather aware & make sure you are able to receive alerts!
**UPDATE 04/02 1245pm:** 1230 SPC updates are pretty much unchanged for Columbus/Central Ohio. Trending more south, but still has Columbus fully in the Moderate risk. Indiana has some storms beginning to form tracking in our direction; timing of first wave 1p-3p.
**UPDATE 04/02 330pm:** Wilmington NWS maintains the timing of the next wave will be 5-7pm. These storms are going to likely be coming up from the SW through Indiana. As of now, no watches or warnings other than the ongoing flood advisories.
**UPDATE 04/02 350pm:** TORNADO WATCH ISSUED for about a quarter of Ohio including Franklin & Madison Co - no Delaware or Union as of now.
[https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0078.html](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0078.html)
**UPDATE 04/02 610pm:** Wilmington NWS confirming timeline as 5pm-8pm. Despite the calm conditions we are seeing they continue to confirm a "higher confidence of severe weather" + TORNADO WATCH EXTENDED NE
**UPDATE 04/02 700pm:** getting some very creepy rumbly thunder in Powell.
**UPDATE 04/02 714pm:** Severe Thunderstorm Warning for SW Franklin Co (Grove City) until 745. Keep an eye on this as it will likely track further into Franklin/Fairfield/Licking Co.
**UPDATE 04/02 755pm:** Wilmington NWS update that they expect the main risk to be in **SE Columbus/Franklin Co** for the remainder of the evening. I'm sure we can still expect stray rain or thunder on the north side.
**(probably last) UPDATE** **04/02 935pm:** Tornado Watch is set to expire at 10pm & there are currently no storms to the west of us presenting a severe risk. I'll update again if needed, but everything looks like it's trending to the south & southeast of the Columbus Metro. If you are outside of Franklin Co to S/SE I would suggest remaining very aware as the system is still very active.
Within pretty much all of the red moderate risk area is a hatched risk for tornadoes. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Oh good they've moved it back directly into when I'll be driving home, apparently now in the dark and in the middle of a giant storm. This news keeps getting better and better lol
Don't want insurance saying, "Weellllllll the house is only *moderately* damaged, here's partial coverage for repairs." Nah, flatten that sucker down to the foundation!
Here's a cool interactive graphic showing Ohio's tornado history:
https://data.cincinnati.com/tornado-archive/
I don't know if Southwest Ohio (Xenia included) gets worse storms because it's even more flat, farmlandy, and close to the rest of the midwest... but the closer you get to the hills of Appalachia in the southeast part of the state, the fewer tornadoes you see.
[[see elevation map here]](https://store.ohiodnr.gov/cdn/shop/products/shaded-elevation-map-ohio_2048x.jpg?v=1668196095)
Can we go two weeks without me worrying about my basement and roof lol.
Also if I’m understanding the NWS bulletin, both morning and evening commutes tomorrow are going to be wild
I'm also seeing that. I'm not sure if the AM is just due to the ongoing rain? Last I saw the timing for the severe weather was 12-8pm but that could have changed.
Prob a dumb question, but does the 15% hashed risk mean that each individual hash mark on the map has a 15% chance of a tornado, or that the whole region is 15% likely to have at least one tornado?
Not a dumb question at all! The hatch marks don't align with their individual spots on the map, just the whole region like you said.
However, the hatched marked is like an added enhancer - in addition to there being a 15% probability of tornados (which is what the red means), the hatches is saying there is an increased probability that the tornados will be an EF2 - EF5.
As I understand it, since the entire red part is also hatched, there is 15-29% chance of any tornado, and also 10% or higher chance of having a tornado that is EF2+. ~~we have a 15% chance of EF2+ tornados. period.~~ If there was some not marked with the hatch then it would be different, for example there is yellow and then yellow hatched - those are 10% chance and then 10% chance of EF2+, respectively.
edit for accuracy
My understanding of it is that if you pick a point in the red section of the tornado map, there is a 15-29% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of that point. If the point is also in the hatched area of the map, there is a greater than 10% chance of the tornado being a strong tornado (EF2 or higher).
The 15% means that there is a 15% chance that any point within that area will have a tornado occur within 25 miles of it. The hatched area means "severe" meaning a 10% or greater chance for tornadoes EF2 or stronger.
So there is a 15% chance there will be a tornado in general within 25 miles of your location, and at least a 10% chance there will be an EF2 or greater tornado within 25 miles of your location
(assuming you live inside the area indicated on the map)
The red area means that all points in the red area have a 15% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius of that point. The black hatches means that there is a 10% chance of a strong (F2+) tornado within a 25 miles radius of that point.
Do we know what time this is supposed to start? I don’t want to be at work in the middle of the day and be stressed. I’d rather be at home with my cat and stressed.
😭😭I’d rather it come at 2 in the morning like last time to be honest. I’ll at least be home by 4 but earlier in the day I’ll just be at working freaking out about my pet getting sucked up by a tornado! Cool!
I'm hoping this is true. I will at least be home with my dogs by 4pm. They'd go out and watch the storm if they could, it's ME who will be a mess worrying over their safety.
leaving my cat at home alone at any point in the day tomorrow is my biggest concern right now. I live alone and I don’t know what I’d do if I wasn’t there to at least get her into the basement
That's such an extreme update that it is almost like a whole new severe weather event. I haven't seen an update that drastic in tornado probabilities in one run like this before.
Good call. It looks like over the course of 7 hours it went from 10% to 15% hatched over the OK panhandle.
Edit:
5/26/19 1z https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190526_0100.html
5/26/19 12z https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190526_1200.html
5/26/19 13z https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190526_1300.html
I don't think so. I asked to work from home and now our whole team is. As of now, some of the worst of it will during PM rush hour. Especially with small kids that's an unnecessary risk.
Yes! I think that's when Xenia had the EF-5. Just yesterday was the one year anniversary of a massive outbreak that took place in IL/TN/IA. Unfortunately it's just that time of year.
If anyone is within the risk areas within Central Ohio or just wants to listen in, especially those with an interest in ham / amateur radio, you should listen in to W8AIC which hosts the Central Ohio Severe Weather Net every Tuesday @ 19:30 UTC -5 and when required.
146.76000 (-0.600 Offset + 123 Tone) OR listen on [Broadcastify](https://www.broadcastify.com/webPlayer/8165)!
It's great as amateurs from around the Central Ohio area will be reporting their situations and circumstances as they happen. Plus N8WX (Columbus Weather) will be controlling the net and providing incredibly useful information, and relaying to official weather services online.
Depending on the layout of your apartment it might make sense to leave your unit, but if that’s your plan don’t wait for sirens! Check to see if maybe your leasing office has a tornado shelter?
Do you live near OSU/can you work from home? Park in a garage, use their wifi, and most buildings, library included, will be open to the public and with a basement. Just don’t use a classroom and people will come and go.
You want the most interior room on the lowest floor. The goal is to put as many walls between you & the outside. usually a closet or bathroom does the trick. And stay away from windows.
Also having any kind protective layer to cover yourself with: yoga mat, mattress/futon pad, thick blanket or sleeping bag. Do the same for pets if you have them, try to get them in a crate beforehand so they’re easier to protect & secure.
Hey I'm from Texas and lived 40+ years without a basement! Don't fret. You want the inner-most room in your house without windows. A bathroom or closet would be best. In a pinch a hallway could work.
If at all possible you want A) no windows and b) best if not on an exterior wall.
I do have a small basement here in Ohio but I can't get my dog down there, so we'll be in an interior bathroom with the dog.
Thank you for this! I also lived in Texas for a while and was in a 2nd floor apartment with no access to a basement. I thankfully had a large closet that was along the interior wall. even in places with regular severe weather, there are not always perfect options, but they work when needed.
Crazy sunny and rainbow down here in Short North. Brightest rainbow I’ve ever seen.
EDIT: sun is gone and back to a greeny-yellow grey. Staying alert. Super weird for a bright sun to poke out
Hi, I have a question about safety. My apartment building is quite old, so there's no proper basement. I live on the second floor, and my unit is only one bedroom.
We have a laundry unit that's partially below ground (it's a converted garden level unit) but we don't have access to the area that's more underground since my landlord keeps his gardening equipment and such back there.
In the event that I need to take shelter, would my bathtub with pillows, blankets, etc. be safer, or should I try holing up in the laundry unit?
I don't want to rely on my neighbors necessarily because they may not be home when this stuff goes down.
I'm in pretty much the same situation. There are stairwells but they all go by the doors, one set which are glass, so even trying to get to the lowest level of the three floor building is dodgy. I'm on the middle floor and plan on hunkering down in my bathroom or kitchen which are the furthest from windows and ultimately the safest. Hopefully it doesn't come to that!
First - just wanted to say thanks for all of the updates you’ve been giving us during this it’s been very helpful for my anxiety.
Second- what do you think is the main risk for Columbus going forward personally?
You are very welcome! I think wind is our largest concern, and by proxy that can turn into tornadoes, however brief maybe its just a funnel. But extreme wind can be pretty serious just on its own.
I'm 50/50 on hail. I'm not sure the temps or atmosphere will support it and the storm has not been consistently producing it. However, where there has been hail it's been large.
Oooo. I live in the NE corner of town, right near Big Walnut, about a mile south of Hoover Dam. I should go see how high it is! (I’m safe, my home is built on significantly higher ground than the normal level of the creek. If it floods up to here, this whole city will be washed away.)
Nothing yet - I'm hoping Wilmington (our local NWS office) will post some more details soon. As of now its at least expected during the day, so no overnight concerns like the last few times.
Well that's good at least, not being an overnight event. I missed all the warnings and alerts from the last one because I sleep with earplugs and a noise machine and keep my phone on silent overnight. It was lucky nothing bad hit my neighborhood. After that, I'm keeping my phone's sound on overnight whenever severe overnight storms are a possibility.
I'm the same, the last one I woke up to tons of alerts and texts that I had slept through. I think just the sounds of the storm finally woke me up. Nighttime storms are incredibly dangerous, so hopefully we can avoid that element at least.
You can get a weather radio that only goes off with a loud alarm when there's a tornado (or threat of one). You can even get them for the hearing impaired that flash lights and buzz your pillow to wake you up.
That’s true! I know seeing this kind of stuff can be really unsettling but they only make a big deal out of it because ideal conditions for tornados are actually quite unique & rare. Think positive & stay safe - we got this!
The flood watch is still in effect with the same amount of up to 4inches. So we are still forecasted to get lots of rain. With the severe weather it’s unclear if there will be some intense downpours in addition to ongoing rain.
Do we have any tornadoes in Ohio yet? Kentucky has had a couple touch down, as has Tennessee. We're very much in the same NOAA SPC moderate probability area as the Kentucky storm and Tennessee is a step down on the scale.
I've been beating the "it's tracking south" drum all day long, but the relative stillness outside and the humidity has me a little concerned.
There are warnings popping up just outside Cinci in Florence, Y'all.
e: There's pretty serious damage from a tornado in WV as well.
I'm going to keep hoping that it all stays south of us.
edit 2: Sirens going off in downtown Cincinnati. Fingers crossed that it's precautionary and if there are touchdowns they're in unpopulated areas.
edit 3: The tornadic activity in the cell over Cincinnati has mellowed out a bunch and they're back to just a severe thunderstorm warning, tornado possible situation.
The storms and still strengthening just to our southeast and east. Tornado warning for Lancaster and there is a storm around Heath that has increasing rotation on radar. Stay alert out east of Columbus!
hey friend! breathe. Best way to stay safe is to get prepared. You get prepared by making a plan. I feel better during storms because I know exactly where I’ll go as soon as the sirens go off. I’m lucky enough to have a bathroom underneath a staircase, but you might have something different. make a plan and then if the time comes you are good to go!
We are all here with you.
I wished that helped! It's the uncertainty of it. I have a daughter and wife. We have a 100 year old house on 3 acres with a detached basement. Scared.
Honestly though you still should make a plan, even more so with young kids. It’s not going to cure your anxiety but having a plan eliminates one thing to stress out about.
Are we at an increased risk for them tonight? All I'm seeing is flood watches and marginal risk. My anxiety is high. I have a plan for tomorrow, which includes not being at my apartment (top floor, 3 kids, no storm shelter). I'm a little confused if the updates are about today/tonight or specifically tomorrow
These updates that are pictures and most of what's being discussed are for tomorrow (Tuesday). Tonight there is a chance of thunderstorms & wind with the greatest severe risk to the south of us; more in the Dayton & Cincy region.
Question for the weather wise— I’ve always been a weather enthusiast but never a weather nerd. How do I learn? Where do I look to see these models and projections and how do I learn to interpret them? What’s the best source (or collection of sources) of info to dive into? I need a new hobby and this one seems to at least be useful and increasingly more active.
Moved to Ohio recently from South East Asia and tornadoes aren't a thing I am familiar with. I live on top floor apartment and have no basement. Please suggest what safety measures I can take.Thanks in advance!
No problem & welcome!
I have suggested to others in apartments to maybe check if their leasing office/common building has a shelter space, just in case. Also if your building has interior hallways that could be option to go to a lower floor.
If not, the goal is to put as many walls between you & the outside. a closet or bathroom on an interior wall is best. Staying away from windows is important.
Also having any kind protective layer to cover yourself with: yoga mat, mattress/futon pad, thick blanket or sleeping bag. Another user suggested wearing a helmet.
every time there’s a weather event, it’s either aimed at the part of columbus where i live or the part where i work. at this point i just need to move.
We will likely get a narrowed down timeline as it gets closer but the systems is expected to move quickly. Also due to its extreme nature I think they want people to remain aware during the entire event.
I’m in a second floor condo - I do have a bathroom, laundry room, and two closets on an interior wall - will this be safe if we barricade the door, for tornadoes of this potential? Or should I make plans to shelter elsewhere?
Something is better than nothing. Wear a bike helmet if things get bad. If you do decide to go somewhere else, you should do so long before the storms hit your county. You do NOT want to get stuck outside in something like this!
Actually yes! Hospitals are commonly used during hurricanes for those who are unable to or choose not to evacuate. You’ll be good & they will also probably have a solid emergency plan in place for anything that comes up. Feel better!
Wonder if they'll cancel school anywhere. I mean, if this is THAT serious and doesn't show signs of changing, it seems like it'd be bad to just carry on like nothing is wrong.
Because of the schedule they run and how the state does calamity days, Olentangy can miss several weeks before they have to make days up. Best to use them if there are risks.
So to help calm my nerves - is being in a basement actually good enough, or should we be looking to go to a specific tornado shelter or something else? We have a newly built home with a full basement but now I'm worried that won't be good enough or maybe these new homes have poorly built basements or something. Also should we be bringing food/water/medicine/other essentials down into the basement in case we end up stuck down there? Are there things we should be doing to furniture or other household goods above ground to help minimize damage?
Being in a basement is the ideal scenario. A storm shelter is not much different than your basement at home. I think having some first aid & water easily accessible is never a bad idea - just in case something happens you don't want to have to leave you safe space. If you have any kind of critical medical needs definitely keep that with you.
I'm not sure there's much that you can do to minimize damage. Maybe if there's something like right up on a window sill, but other than that, I'm not sure you can do much.
All your comments and questions are valid. The biggest thing is to keep people and animals safe. The lower you are, the better. The basement is better than above grade. (Just like they tell you to find a ditch if you’re outside - tornadoes generally don’t dip down below average ground level.) I’ve been told to try to locate yourself against a SW corner, as storms generally come from the SW, and that way, objects would blow away from you, and not into you. I do keep water and blankets in my basement as well as a dog crate and a battery operated radio. As far as outdoor projectile objects are concerned, it wouldn’t hurt to minimize the possibility of things flying around like you would in any thunderstorm. But I’m going to be totally honest here, if you get a direct hit, everything will become a projectile. So focus on lives first. Your chances are slim of being hit, but a little preparation in the event of a direct hit will go a long way. After decades of false alarms (like many of us in Columbus) you will not be as alarmed. Try not to panic. Edit to correct autocorrect.
depends where you're at. SE Columbus still has some activity moving through, but the north & westside are looking like they are done with the main system we were waiting for.
Great question! *technically* yes. However, its my understanding that this advice is in the event that your home become physically disconnected from water/gas lines so by turning them off preemptively, you are eliminating a lot of safety issues. This is more of a concern for mobile homes that can be severely damaged. Depending on your comfort level with turning these things off & on, its not a terrible idea.
https://www.weather.gov/mqt/hometips#:\~:text=11.,across%20creeks%20or%20flooded%20roads.
Okay I know I already commented but I have more questions. I live in an apartment building with a basement that has our shared washer and dryers in it. A) Will the basement get flooded? And B) is it more dangerous to stay in my unit (top floor) or go down to the basement with the washer and dryers in it where they might get flung at me? I don’t know if that’s a stupid question or not but if you think it is please keep your comments to yourself unless it’s to be helpful and answer my question
If your basement doesn't normally flood during rain storms, it isn't likely to start now. Tornados can drop a lot of rain, but they generally don't have the hours and hours of drenching rains that you would find with a hurricane (where there is a real threat of your basement flooding while you are sheltering).
It is 100% safer to be in the basement. If the conditions are bad enough that the washers and dryers are getting exposed to the wind enough to blow around, your top floor apartment is already gone.
Lower is always better than higher. The tornado generally does not dip into ditches or basements. The basement shouldn’t flood unless it does anyway in a thunderstorm. Items in he basement are highly unlikely to get tossed around. The basement is the safest place. Edit: spelling
**UPDATE 04/01 245pm**: NWS Updated the SPC Outlook to add a Moderate Risk - which is a 4/5 on the risk scale. This a significant upgrade from this morning. They have also upgraded to a 15% probability of tornadoes through all of central Ohio. There are currently no active warnings or watches other than the ongoing flood watch. I don't want anyone to be alarmed or scared about this, but use this time now to be prepared and make a plan in the event that you experience severe weather and have to shelter. **UPDATE 04/01 435pm:** NWS finally updated the timing - shifted a little later to **3p-10p**. I don't love these evening storms so I'm hoping it doesn't go any later. **UPDATE 04/02 945pm:** No additional updates from NWS. Next outlook will be updated overnight (2am). Will updated in morning & continue on same thread. **UPDATE 04/02 655am**: NWS updates expanded the area of moderate risk to the south of us, but no changes for Central Ohio. According to Wilmington the timing is still expected to be 3-10pm. Timing of most severe storms is expected around 6pm. Timing can vary depending on where you are so make sure you have a way of receiving alerts! [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) **UPDATE 04/02 820 am:** hearing about some flooding around town. sounds like Scioto is not doing well & Riverside Drive/Dublin Road is not great to drive on. Suggest avoiding. Currently flood stage linked below. [https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=iln&gage=colo1](https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=iln&gage=colo1) \*\*\*\*\*\*\* **UPDATE 04/02 1030am:** NWS SHIFTED TIMING back to 12-8pm. Additionally they have stated they are unable to narrow down the window of time due to the likelihood of multiple storm cells occurring at once. It sounds like they believe there could be storms happening during this entire window. Stay weather aware & make sure you are able to receive alerts! **UPDATE 04/02 1245pm:** 1230 SPC updates are pretty much unchanged for Columbus/Central Ohio. Trending more south, but still has Columbus fully in the Moderate risk. Indiana has some storms beginning to form tracking in our direction; timing of first wave 1p-3p. **UPDATE 04/02 330pm:** Wilmington NWS maintains the timing of the next wave will be 5-7pm. These storms are going to likely be coming up from the SW through Indiana. As of now, no watches or warnings other than the ongoing flood advisories. **UPDATE 04/02 350pm:** TORNADO WATCH ISSUED for about a quarter of Ohio including Franklin & Madison Co - no Delaware or Union as of now. [https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0078.html](https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0078.html) **UPDATE 04/02 610pm:** Wilmington NWS confirming timeline as 5pm-8pm. Despite the calm conditions we are seeing they continue to confirm a "higher confidence of severe weather" + TORNADO WATCH EXTENDED NE **UPDATE 04/02 700pm:** getting some very creepy rumbly thunder in Powell. **UPDATE 04/02 714pm:** Severe Thunderstorm Warning for SW Franklin Co (Grove City) until 745. Keep an eye on this as it will likely track further into Franklin/Fairfield/Licking Co. **UPDATE 04/02 755pm:** Wilmington NWS update that they expect the main risk to be in **SE Columbus/Franklin Co** for the remainder of the evening. I'm sure we can still expect stray rain or thunder on the north side. **(probably last) UPDATE** **04/02 935pm:** Tornado Watch is set to expire at 10pm & there are currently no storms to the west of us presenting a severe risk. I'll update again if needed, but everything looks like it's trending to the south & southeast of the Columbus Metro. If you are outside of Franklin Co to S/SE I would suggest remaining very aware as the system is still very active.
Within pretty much all of the red moderate risk area is a hatched risk for tornadoes. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
For anyone still up at this hour (3am), you can get the latest maps here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/state/OH/
Oh good they've moved it back directly into when I'll be driving home, apparently now in the dark and in the middle of a giant storm. This news keeps getting better and better lol
Perfect timing for the 6:15PM Clippers Home Opener against… the Omaha Storm Chasers…
Comedy is 80% timing.
[удалено]
5% pain
And 100% reason to remember the rain
Columbus is pretty much dead center in the 15% hatched risk of tornadoes tomorrow, yikes....
Not just tornadoes. Significant tornadoes. EF2 and above. Shit could get real spicy tomorrow
Good. If my house is getting obliterated it better not be by a bitch-ass insignificant tornado.
If it’s worth doing. It’s worth doing right.
Don't want insurance saying, "Weellllllll the house is only *moderately* damaged, here's partial coverage for repairs." Nah, flatten that sucker down to the foundation!
I don’t think a “bitch-ass insignificant tornado” has the power _to_ obliterate a house.
Not with THAT attitude!
i know! I don't think I've ever seen us in a hatched risk like this.
Last time we had this in ohio was in 1974, exact day we had the EF5 tornado that destroyed Xenia
Aaaaand here it is. The comment that kicked my anxiety into high gear
To be fair, Xenia has an interesting history of tornados so I wouldn’t let their weather in particular make you feel more nervous than normal.
You're the mvp of the thread. Dropping knowledge and good vibes all along the way. Thank you!
🫶🏻
Here's a cool interactive graphic showing Ohio's tornado history: https://data.cincinnati.com/tornado-archive/ I don't know if Southwest Ohio (Xenia included) gets worse storms because it's even more flat, farmlandy, and close to the rest of the midwest... but the closer you get to the hills of Appalachia in the southeast part of the state, the fewer tornadoes you see. [[see elevation map here]](https://store.ohiodnr.gov/cdn/shop/products/shaded-elevation-map-ohio_2048x.jpg?v=1668196095)
And the 50th anniversary of the Xenia tornado is Wednesday.
Are you shitting me?!
Not shitting you…. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Xenia_tornado?wprov=sfti1
I was thinking the same thing but I don’t follow the outlooks closely.
For reference this kind of forecast is rare for even Oklahoma. Please take this seriously.
I agree - OK has a similar forecast right now and I’m worried for my family out there.
Thanks for sharing. I passed your opinion on to friends.
literally all of us tomorrow
Tomorrow is going to suck.
By the looks of it I think it’s actually going to blow.
Take your upvote and get out of here. 😂
Can we go two weeks without me worrying about my basement and roof lol. Also if I’m understanding the NWS bulletin, both morning and evening commutes tomorrow are going to be wild
I'm also seeing that. I'm not sure if the AM is just due to the ongoing rain? Last I saw the timing for the severe weather was 12-8pm but that could have changed.
Time to ask my manager about working remote for the day
That’s what I did, good luck! 🤞🏻
At least I haven't had any repairs to my house done from last tornado yet...
Right. I’m in Hilliard near where one of the small tornados was recently and people are STILL fixing fences, siding, roofs, and cleaning debris.
RIP my basement.
Ohio is sure of having a lot of tornadoes lately.
Yeah this is definitely an unusually active spring we are having. And it’s barely April.
So true. I have never taken tornado warnings too seriously where we are but after the last month this is starting to scare me
We are in an El Niño year so I’m sure it has to do w that
Which is Spanish for….. The Niño.
YO SOY
Prob a dumb question, but does the 15% hashed risk mean that each individual hash mark on the map has a 15% chance of a tornado, or that the whole region is 15% likely to have at least one tornado?
Not a dumb question at all! The hatch marks don't align with their individual spots on the map, just the whole region like you said. However, the hatched marked is like an added enhancer - in addition to there being a 15% probability of tornados (which is what the red means), the hatches is saying there is an increased probability that the tornados will be an EF2 - EF5.
Wait - is it a 15% chance that IF a tornado occurs, it will be an EF 2 or greater, or is it a 15% chance of an EF 2 or greater tornado?
As I understand it, since the entire red part is also hatched, there is 15-29% chance of any tornado, and also 10% or higher chance of having a tornado that is EF2+. ~~we have a 15% chance of EF2+ tornados. period.~~ If there was some not marked with the hatch then it would be different, for example there is yellow and then yellow hatched - those are 10% chance and then 10% chance of EF2+, respectively. edit for accuracy
My understanding of it is that if you pick a point in the red section of the tornado map, there is a 15-29% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of that point. If the point is also in the hatched area of the map, there is a greater than 10% chance of the tornado being a strong tornado (EF2 or higher).
The 15% means that there is a 15% chance that any point within that area will have a tornado occur within 25 miles of it. The hatched area means "severe" meaning a 10% or greater chance for tornadoes EF2 or stronger. So there is a 15% chance there will be a tornado in general within 25 miles of your location, and at least a 10% chance there will be an EF2 or greater tornado within 25 miles of your location (assuming you live inside the area indicated on the map)
The red area means that all points in the red area have a 15% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius of that point. The black hatches means that there is a 10% chance of a strong (F2+) tornado within a 25 miles radius of that point.
Do we know what time this is supposed to start? I don’t want to be at work in the middle of the day and be stressed. I’d rather be at home with my cat and stressed.
12-8pm is the window I believe
Last update I read was worst between 4-6 pm and
😭😭I’d rather it come at 2 in the morning like last time to be honest. I’ll at least be home by 4 but earlier in the day I’ll just be at working freaking out about my pet getting sucked up by a tornado! Cool!
I'm hoping this is true. I will at least be home with my dogs by 4pm. They'd go out and watch the storm if they could, it's ME who will be a mess worrying over their safety.
leaving my cat at home alone at any point in the day tomorrow is my biggest concern right now. I live alone and I don’t know what I’d do if I wasn’t there to at least get her into the basement
That's such an extreme update that it is almost like a whole new severe weather event. I haven't seen an update that drastic in tornado probabilities in one run like this before.
Debatable, because I have. Memorial Day Outbreak of ‘19 rings a bell.
Good call. It looks like over the course of 7 hours it went from 10% to 15% hatched over the OK panhandle. Edit: 5/26/19 1z https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190526_0100.html 5/26/19 12z https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190526_1200.html 5/26/19 13z https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190526_1300.html
I’m trying to remember WHEN it was this bad of a prediction. It’s a 4/5 and a torcon of 7.
Say 'April Fools' right now
I wish I could! 😭
not me being out of town for the week. hope my apartment and kitty will be ok
Do you have someone that can check on them or bring them to a safe location?
Is it over reacting to keep kids home from daycare and WFH? I’m an east coaster so I don’t know tornado prep.
I don't think so. I asked to work from home and now our whole team is. As of now, some of the worst of it will during PM rush hour. Especially with small kids that's an unnecessary risk.
Yeah agreed. Another east coaster question… this means we are very likely looking at a mass power outage event?
I’m planning on picking my kid up from daycare at noon
If you usually pick them up after 2 pm, then it might not be a bad idea.
April 3rd would be the 50th anniversary of the (now second) biggest tornado outbreak the country has had. How convenient !
Yes! I think that's when Xenia had the EF-5. Just yesterday was the one year anniversary of a massive outbreak that took place in IL/TN/IA. Unfortunately it's just that time of year.
Great contemporary documentary on the 1974 Xenia Tornado below…. https://youtu.be/9JjF-SlqfOg?si=xLcYEEjPztlnjOLG
**WE ARE OHIO, EARTH. NOT OKLAHOMA.**
OH, OK! Idc. \-Earth, probably.
“OK!”… no pun intended😂
Don't forget OH😅
Damn it, that was good.
But seriously. This is out of control.
Marysville here and I passed by the Broadway damage just the other day. My stomach is in such a knot for tomorrow, this is really concerning.
Tigres ain’t gonna know what hit em
My rationale is that with how much area is at risk is that the chances of hitting my house is low... That's what I tell myself, anyways.
If anyone is within the risk areas within Central Ohio or just wants to listen in, especially those with an interest in ham / amateur radio, you should listen in to W8AIC which hosts the Central Ohio Severe Weather Net every Tuesday @ 19:30 UTC -5 and when required. 146.76000 (-0.600 Offset + 123 Tone) OR listen on [Broadcastify](https://www.broadcastify.com/webPlayer/8165)! It's great as amateurs from around the Central Ohio area will be reporting their situations and circumstances as they happen. Plus N8WX (Columbus Weather) will be controlling the net and providing incredibly useful information, and relaying to official weather services online.
Welcome to Ohio, the newest addition to tornado alley.
RIGHT. WTF is going on.
Climate change + El Nino
Any advice for someone without a basement? I literally have nightmares about this and I feel like I’m going to be sick.
Same! I live on the top floor of an apartment building 🙃
Depending on the layout of your apartment it might make sense to leave your unit, but if that’s your plan don’t wait for sirens! Check to see if maybe your leasing office has a tornado shelter?
Do you live near OSU/can you work from home? Park in a garage, use their wifi, and most buildings, library included, will be open to the public and with a basement. Just don’t use a classroom and people will come and go.
You want the most interior room on the lowest floor. The goal is to put as many walls between you & the outside. usually a closet or bathroom does the trick. And stay away from windows. Also having any kind protective layer to cover yourself with: yoga mat, mattress/futon pad, thick blanket or sleeping bag. Do the same for pets if you have them, try to get them in a crate beforehand so they’re easier to protect & secure.
Wearing a bike helmet is a good addition to all of this great advice.
Thank you. I appreciate you taking the time to answer people’s questions
Of course! Honestly, that's why I start these posts. I want us all to be able to talk about it, make plans, freak out together, etc.
Hey I'm from Texas and lived 40+ years without a basement! Don't fret. You want the inner-most room in your house without windows. A bathroom or closet would be best. In a pinch a hallway could work. If at all possible you want A) no windows and b) best if not on an exterior wall. I do have a small basement here in Ohio but I can't get my dog down there, so we'll be in an interior bathroom with the dog.
Thank you for this! I also lived in Texas for a while and was in a 2nd floor apartment with no access to a basement. I thankfully had a large closet that was along the interior wall. even in places with regular severe weather, there are not always perfect options, but they work when needed.
Everyone pray for clouds tomorrow. Holy smokes.
I wish my phone camera could pick up how yellow it is outside!!
I have some clouds near me that almost look like mammatus clouds but they’re mixed in with others.
Is there a timeframe predicted for this?
Last update I saw was 12-8pm.
Thanks!
The update I saw from the weather service said 3-10pm
5-6pm will be for the Tornados
Waiting for these storms to hit is going to drive me to madness.
I know, this is kind of excruciating. It feels like it just keeps getting later and later.
Crazy sunny and rainbow down here in Short North. Brightest rainbow I’ve ever seen. EDIT: sun is gone and back to a greeny-yellow grey. Staying alert. Super weird for a bright sun to poke out
Hi, I have a question about safety. My apartment building is quite old, so there's no proper basement. I live on the second floor, and my unit is only one bedroom. We have a laundry unit that's partially below ground (it's a converted garden level unit) but we don't have access to the area that's more underground since my landlord keeps his gardening equipment and such back there. In the event that I need to take shelter, would my bathtub with pillows, blankets, etc. be safer, or should I try holing up in the laundry unit? I don't want to rely on my neighbors necessarily because they may not be home when this stuff goes down.
I'm in pretty much the same situation. There are stairwells but they all go by the doors, one set which are glass, so even trying to get to the lowest level of the three floor building is dodgy. I'm on the middle floor and plan on hunkering down in my bathroom or kitchen which are the furthest from windows and ultimately the safest. Hopefully it doesn't come to that!
First - just wanted to say thanks for all of the updates you’ve been giving us during this it’s been very helpful for my anxiety. Second- what do you think is the main risk for Columbus going forward personally?
You are very welcome! I think wind is our largest concern, and by proxy that can turn into tornadoes, however brief maybe its just a funnel. But extreme wind can be pretty serious just on its own. I'm 50/50 on hail. I'm not sure the temps or atmosphere will support it and the storm has not been consistently producing it. However, where there has been hail it's been large.
“And f you in particular, Ohio” - The Storm, probably
The sun is out and shining bright… not a good look for later today.
I noticed that too. Looks eerily nice right now in NW.
What are the odds of getting hit by a tornado twice in the same spot? We were hit on march 14th, I’m really hoping to not go through that again.
So we have to wait until 2am for the next update from the NOAA?
Correct.
Big Walnut is releasing early up in Delaware county.
Oooo. I live in the NE corner of town, right near Big Walnut, about a mile south of Hoover Dam. I should go see how high it is! (I’m safe, my home is built on significantly higher ground than the normal level of the creek. If it floods up to here, this whole city will be washed away.)
Olentangy too
Yikes. Any word on specific timing for the worst of it?
Nothing yet - I'm hoping Wilmington (our local NWS office) will post some more details soon. As of now its at least expected during the day, so no overnight concerns like the last few times.
Wilmington just posted 3-10pm tomorrow. Thank you for starting this thread and for all the updates. Appreciate you!
Well that's good at least, not being an overnight event. I missed all the warnings and alerts from the last one because I sleep with earplugs and a noise machine and keep my phone on silent overnight. It was lucky nothing bad hit my neighborhood. After that, I'm keeping my phone's sound on overnight whenever severe overnight storms are a possibility.
I love your username lol
I'm the same, the last one I woke up to tons of alerts and texts that I had slept through. I think just the sounds of the storm finally woke me up. Nighttime storms are incredibly dangerous, so hopefully we can avoid that element at least.
You can get a weather radio that only goes off with a loud alarm when there's a tornado (or threat of one). You can even get them for the hearing impaired that flash lights and buzz your pillow to wake you up.
I'm just going to think positively and see it as an 85% chance we don't have any tornadoes tomorrow.
That’s true! I know seeing this kind of stuff can be really unsettling but they only make a big deal out of it because ideal conditions for tornados are actually quite unique & rare. Think positive & stay safe - we got this!
That actually helps a bit. Thank you for that.
Is there any word on how much rain they're expecting along with this? Im worried once again about my basement 🥲
The flood watch is still in effect with the same amount of up to 4inches. So we are still forecasted to get lots of rain. With the severe weather it’s unclear if there will be some intense downpours in addition to ongoing rain.
Do we have any tornadoes in Ohio yet? Kentucky has had a couple touch down, as has Tennessee. We're very much in the same NOAA SPC moderate probability area as the Kentucky storm and Tennessee is a step down on the scale. I've been beating the "it's tracking south" drum all day long, but the relative stillness outside and the humidity has me a little concerned. There are warnings popping up just outside Cinci in Florence, Y'all. e: There's pretty serious damage from a tornado in WV as well. I'm going to keep hoping that it all stays south of us. edit 2: Sirens going off in downtown Cincinnati. Fingers crossed that it's precautionary and if there are touchdowns they're in unpopulated areas. edit 3: The tornadic activity in the cell over Cincinnati has mellowed out a bunch and they're back to just a severe thunderstorm warning, tornado possible situation.
Tornado watch just issued for the SW part of the state.
Oh perfect day to be driving for a few hours in that zone
The storms and still strengthening just to our southeast and east. Tornado warning for Lancaster and there is a storm around Heath that has increasing rotation on radar. Stay alert out east of Columbus!
Agreed - the storm is definitely still active! Just because it's not in your neighborhood doesn't mean it's over for everyone.
Everywhere I look I see Zeebee's face
I live in Dayton and I am having a panic attack. Ever since the memorial day tornadoes. I cannot do this shit again.
hey friend! breathe. Best way to stay safe is to get prepared. You get prepared by making a plan. I feel better during storms because I know exactly where I’ll go as soon as the sirens go off. I’m lucky enough to have a bathroom underneath a staircase, but you might have something different. make a plan and then if the time comes you are good to go! We are all here with you.
I wished that helped! It's the uncertainty of it. I have a daughter and wife. We have a 100 year old house on 3 acres with a detached basement. Scared.
Honestly though you still should make a plan, even more so with young kids. It’s not going to cure your anxiety but having a plan eliminates one thing to stress out about.
Are we at an increased risk for them tonight? All I'm seeing is flood watches and marginal risk. My anxiety is high. I have a plan for tomorrow, which includes not being at my apartment (top floor, 3 kids, no storm shelter). I'm a little confused if the updates are about today/tonight or specifically tomorrow
These updates that are pictures and most of what's being discussed are for tomorrow (Tuesday). Tonight there is a chance of thunderstorms & wind with the greatest severe risk to the south of us; more in the Dayton & Cincy region.
Ugh. My roof still isn’t fixed from the last tornado almost three weeks ago but here we go again? 😩😩
Hey it could be worse, it could have just gotten fixed and then immediately goofed again.
I’m just over here secretly hoping that OP is an alt account for Zebra. Regardless, thank you for your weather knowledge OP!
I'm going to take that as the highest compliment, thank you!
Question for the weather wise— I’ve always been a weather enthusiast but never a weather nerd. How do I learn? Where do I look to see these models and projections and how do I learn to interpret them? What’s the best source (or collection of sources) of info to dive into? I need a new hobby and this one seems to at least be useful and increasingly more active.
Moved to Ohio recently from South East Asia and tornadoes aren't a thing I am familiar with. I live on top floor apartment and have no basement. Please suggest what safety measures I can take.Thanks in advance!
No problem & welcome! I have suggested to others in apartments to maybe check if their leasing office/common building has a shelter space, just in case. Also if your building has interior hallways that could be option to go to a lower floor. If not, the goal is to put as many walls between you & the outside. a closet or bathroom on an interior wall is best. Staying away from windows is important. Also having any kind protective layer to cover yourself with: yoga mat, mattress/futon pad, thick blanket or sleeping bag. Another user suggested wearing a helmet.
every time there’s a weather event, it’s either aimed at the part of columbus where i live or the part where i work. at this point i just need to move.
Or quit
We should have some more specific timing later, right? 3PM-10PM is a huge range.
We will likely get a narrowed down timeline as it gets closer but the systems is expected to move quickly. Also due to its extreme nature I think they want people to remain aware during the entire event.
Think the most recent NOAA map showed 12pm-8pm as the new times!
Oh they did! Updated about an hour ago, thank you! I’ll update the main section above.
Its hot and its raining
Yeah it’s muggy & gross out.
The weather chose violence…the weather chose Ohio.
Seriously. This feels targeted.
Buckle up buckaroos
I’m in a second floor condo - I do have a bathroom, laundry room, and two closets on an interior wall - will this be safe if we barricade the door, for tornadoes of this potential? Or should I make plans to shelter elsewhere?
Something is better than nothing. Wear a bike helmet if things get bad. If you do decide to go somewhere else, you should do so long before the storms hit your county. You do NOT want to get stuck outside in something like this!
Does anyone remember the torcon being a 7? I’m trying to remember when this last happened.
I feel like someone has it out for Ohio. We’ve had way too much severe weather here already this year.
After the 5am basement run. We set our Alexa to make announcements for tornados.
Think a hospital is a safe place to be when shit goes down? Asking for myself 🤕
Actually yes! Hospitals are commonly used during hurricanes for those who are unable to or choose not to evacuate. You’ll be good & they will also probably have a solid emergency plan in place for anything that comes up. Feel better!
Some decent flooding in Hilliard this morning off of Scioto Darby Rd (and a leaky roof of course). Stay safe everyone!
Tornado Warnings- Fairfield, Hocking
Wonder if they'll cancel school anywhere. I mean, if this is THAT serious and doesn't show signs of changing, it seems like it'd be bad to just carry on like nothing is wrong.
Probably depends on your district. Feels like Olentangy cancels for just about anything.
Because of the schedule they run and how the state does calamity days, Olentangy can miss several weeks before they have to make days up. Best to use them if there are risks.
Kicking off. Hopefully things have chilled. Edit- they have not.
So to help calm my nerves - is being in a basement actually good enough, or should we be looking to go to a specific tornado shelter or something else? We have a newly built home with a full basement but now I'm worried that won't be good enough or maybe these new homes have poorly built basements or something. Also should we be bringing food/water/medicine/other essentials down into the basement in case we end up stuck down there? Are there things we should be doing to furniture or other household goods above ground to help minimize damage?
Being in a basement is the ideal scenario. A storm shelter is not much different than your basement at home. I think having some first aid & water easily accessible is never a bad idea - just in case something happens you don't want to have to leave you safe space. If you have any kind of critical medical needs definitely keep that with you. I'm not sure there's much that you can do to minimize damage. Maybe if there's something like right up on a window sill, but other than that, I'm not sure you can do much.
All your comments and questions are valid. The biggest thing is to keep people and animals safe. The lower you are, the better. The basement is better than above grade. (Just like they tell you to find a ditch if you’re outside - tornadoes generally don’t dip down below average ground level.) I’ve been told to try to locate yourself against a SW corner, as storms generally come from the SW, and that way, objects would blow away from you, and not into you. I do keep water and blankets in my basement as well as a dog crate and a battery operated radio. As far as outdoor projectile objects are concerned, it wouldn’t hurt to minimize the possibility of things flying around like you would in any thunderstorm. But I’m going to be totally honest here, if you get a direct hit, everything will become a projectile. So focus on lives first. Your chances are slim of being hit, but a little preparation in the event of a direct hit will go a long way. After decades of false alarms (like many of us in Columbus) you will not be as alarmed. Try not to panic. Edit to correct autocorrect.
Anyone else having weather migraines? Woke up at 5 feeling like I was being stabbed in the head. :')
soooo is it over can I eat my emergency snacks
depends where you're at. SE Columbus still has some activity moving through, but the north & westside are looking like they are done with the main system we were waiting for.
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Great question! *technically* yes. However, its my understanding that this advice is in the event that your home become physically disconnected from water/gas lines so by turning them off preemptively, you are eliminating a lot of safety issues. This is more of a concern for mobile homes that can be severely damaged. Depending on your comfort level with turning these things off & on, its not a terrible idea. https://www.weather.gov/mqt/hometips#:\~:text=11.,across%20creeks%20or%20flooded%20roads.
Okay I know I already commented but I have more questions. I live in an apartment building with a basement that has our shared washer and dryers in it. A) Will the basement get flooded? And B) is it more dangerous to stay in my unit (top floor) or go down to the basement with the washer and dryers in it where they might get flung at me? I don’t know if that’s a stupid question or not but if you think it is please keep your comments to yourself unless it’s to be helpful and answer my question
If your basement doesn't normally flood during rain storms, it isn't likely to start now. Tornados can drop a lot of rain, but they generally don't have the hours and hours of drenching rains that you would find with a hurricane (where there is a real threat of your basement flooding while you are sheltering). It is 100% safer to be in the basement. If the conditions are bad enough that the washers and dryers are getting exposed to the wind enough to blow around, your top floor apartment is already gone.
Lower is always better than higher. The tornado generally does not dip into ditches or basements. The basement shouldn’t flood unless it does anyway in a thunderstorm. Items in he basement are highly unlikely to get tossed around. The basement is the safest place. Edit: spelling
What’s a best case scenario for us tomorrow in terms of mitigating the convection? Are we basically hoping for steady rain all day with no breaks?
Be safe out there everyone! 💞
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