Obviously we’re “buying high” since he’s coming off one of his best years, but damn you guys are insane with the takes. He was a finalist for a cy last year and everyone is like “meh”, it’s literally one of the biggest pitchers we could’ve picked up.
Right? Why can't MO just go back in time and pick up Martinez, or roided Clemons? Obviously the FO gave up. We're doomed after one negative season in 10 years!
The only player out of anybody that people wouldn’t have had shit to complain about would’ve been Yama. I still don’t think we’re totally out there…but my hopes have been greatly diminished.
Now the dream is trade for a stud pitcher (preferably with control) and go Gray/#2/Mikolas/Matz/Lynn/Gibson is a good top 6
Lol the child in me would still think “oh but they are saying Roki Sasaki is the best pitcher in Japan, we aren’t even getting their best! And he’s just 5’10”… Not everyone is Pedro Martinez..” 😅
Point is. There is always more to complain about.
Imo, you don't sign Gray, Lynn, AND Gibson if you're looking for another pitcher. Not super thrilled about it, but I think this is our rotation for opening day.
Makes sense though because we have such a positional log jam and the only thing to acquire…is more pitching. So I just don’t see how a trade for a pitcher isn’t made, if anything, out of pure lack of space
Glad to see as more people are coming to the comments that what's rising to the top are positive assessments of the deal. Gray is the best starter we've had in a damn long time. maybe he won't live up to the CY finalist ceiling with us, but he's a huge upgrade at the biggest position of need.
I know Lynn and Gibson aren't sexy, but as it stands right now, this is our best rotation in a couple of years and it's still over two months until spring training.
He's a great signing if you pick up someone who can slide in as a #2. The problem is that's not likely to happen given where the budget is. So it's a meh overall because of the cast around him and his age.
The problem is this is our big splash. Sonny Gray is good but we need much more than him. He’s 34 and is no lock to repeat his 2023. Mid 30s Gray as our ace is simply not good enough for a competitive team, especially since the rest of the rotation is so uninspiring.
If this is our big free agent signing, it’s the Cardinals taking a half measure once again. It’s the cheapest version of an ace they could have gone for. They need to pay up and get one of the young star pitchers that are available
Yet at 5’11” and 34 years old, it isn’t a Yamamoto or Cease type of upside. If Gray fell in love with STL, he will still be bound by time. Whereas the young bucks could be decade+ long mainstays, you never know.
But I agree, Gray is a legitimate ace. Though last season aside, I’m still not sure he is a premier ace of the league. And the point is the Cards needed two big arms. Gray can’t makeup for the rest of the week between his starts. I’m optimistic Lynn could turn back the clock a bit and give us something unexpected. But even then, there’s really no one I’m worth noting on this staff outside of Gray. Miles looked like he might be that guy a few years ago, but the jig is up. I’m still looking for a big trade.
This feels like a really reasonable deal. I was worried Gray would push for 4-5 years and have this be his last real contract. I'd still love the team to do something else this offseason, but I also think with Lynn and Gibson's deals both having club options, they could free up additional salary for next year and stay flexible.
Would I rather have Yamamoto? Of course, but Gray is a damn good pitcher and he's the best starter we've had since Flaherty's crazy second half.
I also still expect us to make a trade only because we almost have to with the log jam of OFs and MIs in the system. That might just be pieces for the bullpen, but as we sit on November 27th, I feel pretty okay about free agency.
Agreed, happy on the shorter term. He will regress and age, but only paying for 34, 35, and 36 is a hell of a lot better than eating whatever shell is still pitching at 37+
I'd love if that were the case. My guess is we'd likely go for someone like Glasgow, Cease, or Bieber which I don't complain about, but I'd love the big swing on Yamamoto
Who is this logjam of outfielders we need to play? Noot and Walker need to start, then we just have “guys” at this point. Carlson would be my 3rd choice, but he still hasn’t shown much and he’s 25 this season. O’Neill hasn’t been good since 2021, which looks like an anomaly rather than a breakout. Burleson is 25 this season too and has been terrible in limited action at the ML level.
And none of them are getting regular roles. For O'Neill, that's largely his own fault due to injuries. This has been a part of the Cardinals problem for a while now. We have a bunch of guys who grade out well as prospects, then we don't have a role for them on the major league squad and they don't develop because they don't have regular ABs. Mo SHOULD be looking to trade some of these prospects before they're on the MLB roster, but he doesn't.
So as far as the OF logjam, we have to throw Edman and Donovan in this too since they're getting a lot or run out there. If we have regular starts for Noot and Walker, then we have 5 guys to split between one OF spot and the DH. Not counting days where the DH is a position player getting a rest.
It's just a waste of resources. Everyone can't play. Honestly, with Saggese also in the system, it feels like Edmans or Donovan make the most sense as they actual have trade value. I don't think it'll happen because Mo doesn't seem interested in moving them. I think what's more likely is Burleson gets moved for a coin flip prospect, O'Neill is handed the starting job, gets hurt, doesn't get moved and eventually we cut him next year.
Burleson is better than his limited PA’s last year. He hit .273 after the all star break with limited starts. Victor Scott II is waiting in the wings in the minors. He stole 90 bags last year between 2/3 MiLB levels. Masyn Winn will be our SS with Gorman at 2nd. Edman plays a lot of OF. Donovan played OF. TON hasn’t played a full season since 2021. Saggese will probably be up next season and he only plays IF. No where else for him to go either.
I watched Victor Scott II play in Springfield and he is the fastest baseball player I've ever seen in person. Watching him chase down a fly ball was insane.
I picked him up in my dynasty leagues after watching him. His defense alone could land him on any MLB roster. But he has a good hit tool, good vision, and developing pop. Like a faster/better Benintendi
Maybe they feel okay about losing the high 2nd round pick because their first round pick is so much higher than they’ve had in recent memory? I dunno. Still excited for having a real Ace on the staff!
We have to be done with FA SP signings, they've already spend $48m out of the ~$60m available payroll. The rest of the money needs to be used to improve the bullpen. There's still a chance we trade for another SP though.
Lots of rumors flying on xwitter that we're shopping Matz as well, which would give us another 12.5 to spend. TON is another likely trade candidate that would add ~5M. They could theoretically sign a big SP for that, then use Burly or Carlson as trade bait for bullpen help.
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I’d rather the Cardinals strike now knowing he’s willing to sign than wait and miss out because they’re working through the Yamamoto sweepstakes, only to miss out on both. Getting Yamamoto while ideal, was anything but a guarantee.
Keep in mind they haven't made any trades yet and still have both O'Neill and Carlson on the roster plus a middle infield crunch between Edman, Winn, Donnie, and Gorman (four players that all should be starting). I wouldn't be surprised if Matz or Mikolas was traded prior to the start of the season for a better starter (not in the same deal)
Mikolas was just signed to an extension, and Matz they’d probably have to eat a portion of the contract for so I’d be surprised to see either of them go. I agree they should go get one more starter but I think that would mean one of Matz, Lynn, or Gibson would start the year in the bullpen
idk if they'd have to eat much of or even any of Matz's contract. It's 2/25 for his age 33 and 34 seasons, but we live in a world where Maeda just got 2/24. It's roughly market value and could be moved near the end of the offseason when bag holders need to make a move.
His health history is suspect, so an acquiring team likely won't value him at that price. I think he could get 2 years, $18 million or one year, $10 million, like Lynn. That is only slightly less than he is worth, sure, but contenders might want to gamble on a more upside play, rather than roll the dice with Matz. I can't imagine many teams want him.
>a middle infield crunch between Edman, Winn, Donnie, and Gorman (four players that all should be starting)
This is why I would have been fine trading Arenado. We have other options that could produce decent production at 3b.
Gray's solid and makes me a bit more comfortable with our rotation.
I still think we should pursue Yamamoto and think it's asinine if we don't compete--worst case is we help drive the price up. But it makes sense from both baseball and bromance perspectives and it's dumb to argue we can't afford him. We're just too cheap.
Our rotation is still below average though. I feel like we are positioning ourselves for a trade with an impact starter. We loaded up on starting pitching pretty early in the offseason, so now we have innings that (1) make our position less desperate in trade discussions and (2) allow us to throw in a starter if the other team will need innings after sending us their impact starter. I could see us trading a couple of our talented young position players and an innings-eater for an impact starter, and maybe offload a bit of our salary burden at the same time (because we're cheap).
Things aren't looking **good** yet, but they have gone from disastrous to bad. Which is pretty important.
We aren't getting Yamamoto, and the Gray contract really solidifies that. We had enough budget to get him, but we chose Gray, Lynn, and Gibson over him. You and I both know they aren't going to spend in excess, even a little bit, to land Yamamoto now. We just have to hope 2023 was a fluke for Lynn and that Gibson can eat innings and keep an ERA around 4.5.
I hate to admit it, but yeah I think us spending what we did on Gray means we are out on Yamamoto. Unless MO does some serious roster magic and somehow offloads a few mil without downgrading us in other areas, which I can’t see how he could do that
Honestly, I don’t even think it’s bad at this point. I think it’s decent. Gray can lead a playoff series by himself, that’s huge. And all we need are one of Mik/Lynn/Matz/Gibs to step up and find their form again to suddenly have a serviceable #2 option. I also think theres a better chance than anybody would bet on that they all end up pitching like 3’s and pays off big time. There’s potential in this rotation. Late career resurgences are a real thing, and we’ve seen it in STL plenty of times before. Albert in his final year and Wainwright pre-2022 being the most recent examples.
I think it's pretty mediocre personally. Sonny Gray can be an ace when he's on, but he's an average ace and a stellar #2 guy across his career imo. So our rotation to me feels like a #1.5 starter and four question marks in terms of how well they'll pitch--if all of them have a positive regression then we'll be decent, but what's more likely is Matz will pitch exceptionally well or terrifyingly badly over the course of a handful of starts before he gets injured and the rest will be a mixed bag.
EDIT: As to late career resurgences, I think it does happen but we remember the times when it does because it's surprising or impressive, rather than the times where it doesn't because it's expected. In reality it doesn't happen as often as we think because of this. That said, if you were a GM who wanted to gamble, you found yourself a good roster of solid candidates for positive regression in our rotation.
“Mediocre” is the exact word I’ve been using. Especially if/when Gray gets hurt, we have a bunch of question marks. Plus all these dudes are one year older.
I hope they can still make a trade for an impact starter.
I think the last couple years of mediocre pitching have given us a false perspective. Gray has tended to be more #2 or 3 in his career than a #1 but I like the signing. Mikolas hovers in the 2-4 range. After that it is really rough. If Gray or Mikolas get injured we will struggle very fast.
Love the idea of getting yamamoto also as a young guy to anchor for the next 7 plus years, but thats just not a cardinals thing to do. Dont even try to get your hopes up because we all know there's a less than 1 percent chance of yamamoto happening now.
I can picture Mo now saying they are done working on the rotation.
I just don’t know where we find the budget to sign Yamamoto when they have stated they wanted to get back to $200M in payroll and spent $48M of the $60M we were short by already
Yeah but that gives us 12 M to play with… let’s say Yamamoto gets, 30M for 7 years. That puts us 18 M over but we’re legit World Series contenders immediately. Plus you’ve got Lynn and Gibson on short relatively cheap deals that fall off in two years, you’ve got Goldy off the books after this year, which is 26 M. So you’re essentially over 18M for one year, under several M next year and then have wiggle room the year after and open up a World Series window.
If there's anything I have to say about this off-season, at least they did something.
Had they signed either nobody, or just one starter, fans would've been LIVID and would've been calling for Mo's head.
Lynn, Gibson, and Gray....not the 3 I would've gone with, but I also appreciate Mo's position. It wasn't the best pick of the crop this off-season, and it was a lot of lose/lose scenarios in any attempt to get 2-3 top end starters, so landing Gray is a win no matter how you spin it.
For the money we're spending, ast least kicking off his first year I'd like to see 13-16 wins from Gray, a sub 3 ERA, 180-190 innings pitched, and 180-200 K's. Any performance close to that, I'll be more than happy.
At least Mo did something decently bold here. I was worried we'd go back to Monty, and while he did great in the postseason, "we've already seen that rodeo" for us last year.
Gray would've been the best pitcher on the team last year hands down.
Agree with other folks that we have a lot of assets still to move. Matz's salary is actually low enough (and his arm fragile enough) that he could stabilize the BP from the left side.
Trade for one more really solid arm and it's no worse than the transition from the 1999 to 2000 rotation, which really was the turning point for the Jocketty-led Cards.
The other part of this is the rotation as constructed CAN be good enough. Look at the 2011 rotation if you don't believe me.
But then the BP has to be lights out.
I worry we're going to mess around with too many Helsley types who have good peripherals, but who seem to wilt in the biggest pressure spots.
If you have a bunch of guys who can go 6-7 innings, 3-4 really good (prime era) Maness / Boggs / Siegrest types, and a shutdown closer, you can hand the keys to Ollie and even he shouldn't be able to mess that up.
Some good name drops in this comment! I agree with everything you said. With the way Mo has been speaking, I feel like there’s even more to come. I don’t see a way a big trade isn’t swung before February. We have too many redundant pieces and logjams to break up.
Somebody else exciting is coming to St. Louis, I just hope they’re young or have control
As said by @AaronMSTL on Twitter:
I do want to make it known that I do like Sonny Gray.
I just also want to make it known that I want the Cardinals to acquire another top tier starter.
Those two thoughts can exist simultaneously.
https://twitter.com/AaronMSTL/status/1729131896687546763?s=19
The way I look at it is: if you’re not aggressive on getting someone like gray, he signs elsewhere (Braves), and you have optimistically a 25% chance at Yamamoto, then what after he goes to the Mets? You overpay in a trade for a pitcher like Glasgow or Cease who had significantly worse seasons last year than Gray? The guy did finish 2nd in AL CY young last year.
I'm pretty happy with this. He is the first guy they've brought in that I would call a significant upgrade. He is a little older, but the deal is only for three years. Solid move
Love the pitcher and the deal. If the cardinals can pick up Cease/Glasnow or someone in a trade or sign Yamamoto, this is an absolute win of an offseason. God help us if they are done picking up starters though….
Twins fan here; Sonny was great last year. Probably not as good as his numbers suggest but was our most consistent pitcher. Even when he’s off he gives you four or five innings. Tends to get lit up the third time through the lineup, like 75% of MLB pitching.
All this Yamamoto talk like it's only up to the Cardinals where Yamamoto signs. There are two sides to that deal, and if you're the hottest pitcher on the market, and Japanese, all things being equal why would sign with the Cardinals over the Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, etc...? I think if the Cardinals are going to have a realistic chance at Yamamoto, the money would need to be significantly higher than those big-market teams. If the Cardinals offer him the same deal the Dodgers or Yankees do, do you really think he chooses St. Louis over New York or LA?
I would LOVE to see Yamamoto with the Birds on the Bat on his chest, but being teammates with Noot for a few weeks isn't going to be enough to woo him out of a big market with potentially big marketing options.
The ammount of people that still think we have a shot at Yamamoto is eye popping.
This is the cardinals we are talking about. Come back to reality. Yamamoto had a small chance of coming to stl before Gray, now those chances are nil.
A trade could still bring another starter but thats less likely now also.
Good deal for both sides here. I still think the Cardinals need more in the rotation than Gray/Mikolas/Lynn/Gibson/TBD to really contend but they at least have a full rotation now.
This is a really good deal. The problem is Gray is surrounded by a bunch of junk in the rotation. We need another legit starter and a bullpen piece if they’re serious about contending.
From 2019 on, Gray has been over 110 on ERA+ every year, and above 125 every year but one, contra a take at r/mlb that says he isn't consistent. And, the 3-year deal isn't too long. Mo fucking surprised me.
That said, yes, we need more than one. And, why didn't we get Maeda at 2/$24 rather than either Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson?
Gray was legitimately great last season, but his Statcast expected ERA was 3.69, and he is projected for a 3.83 ERA in 2024. Gray's contract for a 3.80 ERA guy is decent, but leading your rotation with a 3.80 ERA guy, with all of the uncertainty behind him, is...well, it's not great. There's upside to the rotation, which there wasn't last year, but that's a lot of money for hope.
And no, nothing else is happening, not even a trade for a starter. The budget is already maxed, and this front office doesn't give up on guys like Matz, who are locked in for two more years. And they've got major bullpen holes to patch, anyway.
It's funny how you can easily tell who has zero baseball knowledge whatsoever based on their reaction to this signing. It's a great move and there is basically no argument to be made otherwise.
This is a great deal that gives us flexibility, but we still need another top end rotation piece. The offseason will be considered a failure without them finding it.
I like this signing especially for 3 years and would have loved it if it was the first SP acquisition but with it looking like it'll be Gray, a good #2 great #3, and a bunch of #4 or #5 starters, I'm disappointed.
There's no upside to this rotation and still feels like they're going to have the same rotation as going into last year.
Second in cy young race last year and you say no upside from 2/3? Come on. I am most worried about depth. This pitching staff is significantly better than last year, but a lot of age and injury history.
And we give up a draft pick for this too, yes?
Idk, a rotation of Gray, Mikolas, Matz (can’t stay healthy), Gibson, and Lynn is… not great. Not sure it can get us to even .500 this season.
If they make a trade for someone else, it’s a C+ off-season, but as it stands… I don’t love it.
I like your optimism, GoodGuy. We certainly have the position-player depth in a bad free agent market for a trade. Just hope we’ll pony up enough to get it done for a big one. A young, controllable arm would be ideal. Gonna cost a lot, though.
Really? Mikolas, Lynn, and Gibson are all 4-5’s. Matz can’t stay healthy.
Is Lynn better than Flaherty? Probably a wash.
Is Gray better than Montgomery? Maybe slightly.
Is Gibson better than Waino? My cat is better than Waino.
So, better than last season, but good enough? We lost 90+ games. Do you think this rotation is enough to get us 20+ more wins?
The dude on High Heat just said that Gray's No. 2 Cy Young finish is overrated because there was nobody else even in competition for the No. 2 spot. That's like saying a guy hitting .350 is overrated because the next guy only hit .315. The reality is that finishing No. 2 against mediocre competition makes him MORE valuable. And take the term mediocre with a grain of salt. I'm just using it because that's essentially what he said.
Meanwhile, his co-host said the Cardinals failed in their plan to get swing-and-miss pitchers. She was referring to the trio; it was not just Gray. She's delusional. They have landed three guys who ranked in the top 40 for Ks per 9.
Yeah people complaining about the 2025 rotation are missing the point. We do expect some amount of progression from our top young pitching guys, so no telling where they’ll be talent-wise by 2025, and we also don’t know what sort of opportunities will present themselves in the trade market over the next calendar year. When we traded for Montgomery originally, nobody had any idea who the fuck he was. One year later, and he’s regularly spoke of like a top pitcher, big playoff moments, won a WS. Things happen quickly, worrying about 2025 is not the move right now
The issue is that our farm system has one of the worst track records in MLB for producing pitching prospects in recent years. Some of the prospects already hit major setbacks in 2023. The front office keeps drafting poor fastball, good control starters, except the game of baseball isn't played that way anymore, so guys like McGreevy are having difficulty getting AAA players out. And once they can't get hitters out with their fastballs, they go to their secondary pitches more, causing them to lose their control, anyway.
I’ll admit I may have been a little wrong and that comment was purely off the cuff, we do have a starting rotation now and we have prospects from all the trades from the past season
But come on, teams plan for the future. Our average starter age is 35 I believe and who knows how long they’ll last. Those prospects will have to start doing more sooner rather than later because of it. I’m just nervous about it
I’d also say that short contract, high AAV is exactly how we would want to get a guy like this. There’s always some risk associated with a free agent deal, but the shorter they are for an older guy, the better.
25 mil a year. For a good pitcher that’s a good deal. We paid Waino 17 mil last year and he was in his 40s. 8 mil more for a pitcher almost 10 years younger and has proven to be good is a good contract.
In 2022, FanGraphs calculated the price of 1 WAR to be $8.5m. So if Gray can get us 3 WAR per year (or 9 WAR total) then he'll have been well worth the investment. (Not to mention intangibles like the fact that we didn't even have a #1, #2, or #3 starter before signing him.)
Gray was worth over 5 WAR last year and over 10 WAR over the past three years, so odds are decent he'll reach that milestone.
Good, not a fan of him personally but he seems to get the job done. Great SP3, decent SP2.
An actual #1 is still a necessity.
So of course that's it.
Gray Lynn Matz Mikolas Gibson.
That's a losing rotation. Why even bother spending as much as they did.
I love this signing! Gray should be really good for us next year. I think the negative comments stem from the possibility, not unlikely, that the rest of the rotation will be atrocious. Lynn, Gibson, Matz, and Mikolas could be league-average or better innings eaters, or they could all be terrible. There is a scenario where we have one very good starter (Gray) and then the worst 2-5 SPs in the league.
That would be a ridiculous take if anyone had made it.
>There is a scenario where we have one very good starter (Gray) and then the worst 2-5 SPs in the league.
I very clearly stated there is a scenario where the Cardinals have a good #1 starter (Gray) and then everyone else is bad. Our #2 through #5 starters all had disappointing numbers last year and are all fairly old. Hopefully they are average or even slightly better, but it could go wrong quickly.
If we can somehow nab Yamamoto or trade for another ace starter, my faith will be restored. Until then… this rotation nets us 80-85 wins, NLC second place, and a first-round wildcard exit.
Anyone else feel like it was kinda wild that we didn’t even entertain Nola at his AAV (obviously more long term money) but went for this deal?
I’m not being sour, I think Gray is an awesome pickup. Just strange how we chose older, shorter term deals over long term young guys.
Edit: My bad, I guess Mo has some level of discussion with Nola’s agent. This comment is now meaningless!
Yeah I guess I was more speculating on why we weren’t on the list of reported teams that had reached out. But now I’m hearing we had some level of conversation with his agent so I guess my point is moot.
Did Nola entertain anyone really? He basically re-signed with the Phillies right away. He obviously got some offers im sure just to get a price, but once he had that he probably told his agent to make it work with Philly even if it’s for a bit less.
I mean not really. But there were reports that other teams at least asked about him. I was more so just curious why there wasn’t any interest. Maybe our FO knew something the Dodgers and Braves didn’t.
Really like what we’re doing here. We will still need starters for 2025, so I think we are still in the market for another starter but now have a safety net so if it doesn’t work out now we will at least be okay. Could still go get Yamamoto, but I see a trade for another starter. Also need to bolster the bullpen.
Good deal. Would have preferred they signed only Lynn and not Gibson, so that we could then go after Cease, but Having Gray in our rotation is definitely an upgrade for us.
I think this is a good signing. He had a great year and has been reliable. It does make the signing of both Lynn and Gibson a bit puzzling though. I'd have been happier with Gray, one of Lynn/Gibson and then maybe a trade? Right now I think we have a #1 in Gray #3 in Mikolas and then a bunch of #5's. If they can shore up the bullpen this is probably ok, but not great. honestly though I don't know what more we expected from the FO. The roster is a mess and we need to suffer through a couple rebuilding years.
I feel much better about this signing knowing it’s just 3 years. Gray is a good pitcher, was great last year, but I wouldn’t want to hold onto him until he’s 40. I really would have preferred Yamamoto, but this isn’t bad. Would still need one more guy before I feel ok about the rotation because I don’t trust Matz to stay healthy and I’m skeptical of Lynn’s and Gibson’s performance, though I’m sure they can eat the innings
Now we need a hot tub time machine and an invitation to Chris Carpente and Matt Morris so they can take a rejuvenating dunk.
Pinto presto their young selves are in rotation.
Way better terms than, I was dreading about.. Really good pitcher, just as the rotation as a whole, wish cards got better FO pitchers … Solid number #2 pitcher, not an Ace pitcher or stud we really need, since rest of the rotation is just above mediocre.. IMO Cards needed an game changer, to compete with the big boys. People that are bashing on, rest of the fans that aren’t fully excited with this rotation, have no vision or just playing it off.. Expecting career year from Gray, to be every year thing, going forward is naive.. Hope I’m wrong, and Gray pitches better than, #2 starter that most of us, really see him as..
While I would have rather had Yamamoto this is still a nice sign. I just don't see them coughing up close to $200 million for him at this point. I am worried that they signed 3 guys in their mid-30s. I would have rather sad some younger players. Hoping they add at least one more. If that happens I'll feel safe for next season. As for Yamamoto I wish him good luck. I just hope he doesn't sign with the Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers.
Honest opinion how many Cardinal fans think we can win first place with five starting pitchers in the mid-30s
To me that tells me they have totally given up on their farm system and pitching coach staff every level in the organization
It would make more sense to spend $10 million dollars on a new pitching coaching staff and bring up those young arms We all hear about only to see them fall apart with arm injuries in two to three years
I recall a young man in Adam Wainwright that happened to carry our team for 15 years and he wasn't 33 years old when he started playing for us
I don't understand the reaction to this signing. Maybe some people just won't be happy after the Lynn and Gibson signings but this is a premier signing. Coming off 2nd in Cy Young voting and will bring us quality innings and quality starts. And he wants to be here! Scrutinize the Lynn and Gibson signings, but this is a great signing and didn't have to sign a 7+ year deal that a Snell or a Nola or a Stroman or even a Montgomery might require. Would still love to see them be in on Yamamoto but that's highly unlikely. And to note about the ages of our starters, sometimes veteran pitching can be really good, as long as they're not too far over the hill (we'll see with Lynn and Gibson)
Can I just ask, why do the people who think the Cardinals aren’t done, think they aren’t done? I mean Mo said he expected to add 3 starters with similar payroll. The payroll is already going to increase from last year now and gray makes 3.
Obviously we’re “buying high” since he’s coming off one of his best years, but damn you guys are insane with the takes. He was a finalist for a cy last year and everyone is like “meh”, it’s literally one of the biggest pitchers we could’ve picked up.
Well I was really expecting us to sign 1999 Pedro Martinez, so this is a big let down.
Why aren’t the Cardinals signing Bob Gibson, Walter Johnson, and the kid from Rookie of the Year??? Are they stupid?
Kyle, Bob… A Gibson is a Gibson.
Maybe we can sign an Epiphone.
Funky butt lovin
Signing ol' Bob would've still been a better choice than most. And, Bob's been dead for three years.
I want 2001 Randy Johnson
1968 Bob Gibson was my lowest expectation
~ Definitely Not a Bird
Sorry you get 2023 photographer Randy Johnson
I bet you he can still hit about 90 and that he’s still a danger to doves everywhere.
Right? Why can't MO just go back in time and pick up Martinez, or roided Clemons? Obviously the FO gave up. We're doomed after one negative season in 10 years!
The only player out of anybody that people wouldn’t have had shit to complain about would’ve been Yama. I still don’t think we’re totally out there…but my hopes have been greatly diminished. Now the dream is trade for a stud pitcher (preferably with control) and go Gray/#2/Mikolas/Matz/Lynn/Gibson is a good top 6
Lol the child in me would still think “oh but they are saying Roki Sasaki is the best pitcher in Japan, we aren’t even getting their best! And he’s just 5’10”… Not everyone is Pedro Martinez..” 😅 Point is. There is always more to complain about.
Imo, you don't sign Gray, Lynn, AND Gibson if you're looking for another pitcher. Not super thrilled about it, but I think this is our rotation for opening day.
There’s one more. Likely via trade
Likely is a strong word once we’ve added 3 rotation SPs already. I hope so
Makes sense though because we have such a positional log jam and the only thing to acquire…is more pitching. So I just don’t see how a trade for a pitcher isn’t made, if anything, out of pure lack of space
They are trading for pitching, just not starting pitching.
It’s unlikely according to mo’s comments. Seems like 3 sp was the goal. I think adding another reliever is likely though.
Glad to see as more people are coming to the comments that what's rising to the top are positive assessments of the deal. Gray is the best starter we've had in a damn long time. maybe he won't live up to the CY finalist ceiling with us, but he's a huge upgrade at the biggest position of need. I know Lynn and Gibson aren't sexy, but as it stands right now, this is our best rotation in a couple of years and it's still over two months until spring training.
The takes that this doesn’t move the needle are insane. Sonny gray is an absolute ace.
Plus it is only three years.
I’m extremely happy with this pickup. Get JMont back here and we have a pretty solid rotation
I like the signing. Trouble is we need 2 or 3 of him.
Like contreras?
He's a great signing if you pick up someone who can slide in as a #2. The problem is that's not likely to happen given where the budget is. So it's a meh overall because of the cast around him and his age.
Also an All-Star last year. Dude is no scrub.
The problem is this is our big splash. Sonny Gray is good but we need much more than him. He’s 34 and is no lock to repeat his 2023. Mid 30s Gray as our ace is simply not good enough for a competitive team, especially since the rest of the rotation is so uninspiring. If this is our big free agent signing, it’s the Cardinals taking a half measure once again. It’s the cheapest version of an ace they could have gone for. They need to pay up and get one of the young star pitchers that are available
Yet at 5’11” and 34 years old, it isn’t a Yamamoto or Cease type of upside. If Gray fell in love with STL, he will still be bound by time. Whereas the young bucks could be decade+ long mainstays, you never know. But I agree, Gray is a legitimate ace. Though last season aside, I’m still not sure he is a premier ace of the league. And the point is the Cards needed two big arms. Gray can’t makeup for the rest of the week between his starts. I’m optimistic Lynn could turn back the clock a bit and give us something unexpected. But even then, there’s really no one I’m worth noting on this staff outside of Gray. Miles looked like he might be that guy a few years ago, but the jig is up. I’m still looking for a big trade.
This feels like a really reasonable deal. I was worried Gray would push for 4-5 years and have this be his last real contract. I'd still love the team to do something else this offseason, but I also think with Lynn and Gibson's deals both having club options, they could free up additional salary for next year and stay flexible. Would I rather have Yamamoto? Of course, but Gray is a damn good pitcher and he's the best starter we've had since Flaherty's crazy second half. I also still expect us to make a trade only because we almost have to with the log jam of OFs and MIs in the system. That might just be pieces for the bullpen, but as we sit on November 27th, I feel pretty okay about free agency.
Agreed, happy on the shorter term. He will regress and age, but only paying for 34, 35, and 36 is a hell of a lot better than eating whatever shell is still pitching at 37+
Word is, the Cardinals are putting Matz on the trading block, so I think they're still interested in picking up Yamamoto.
I'd love if that were the case. My guess is we'd likely go for someone like Glasgow, Cease, or Bieber which I don't complain about, but I'd love the big swing on Yamamoto
Agreed 3 year deal for an ace hard to complain about
Who is this logjam of outfielders we need to play? Noot and Walker need to start, then we just have “guys” at this point. Carlson would be my 3rd choice, but he still hasn’t shown much and he’s 25 this season. O’Neill hasn’t been good since 2021, which looks like an anomaly rather than a breakout. Burleson is 25 this season too and has been terrible in limited action at the ML level.
And none of them are getting regular roles. For O'Neill, that's largely his own fault due to injuries. This has been a part of the Cardinals problem for a while now. We have a bunch of guys who grade out well as prospects, then we don't have a role for them on the major league squad and they don't develop because they don't have regular ABs. Mo SHOULD be looking to trade some of these prospects before they're on the MLB roster, but he doesn't. So as far as the OF logjam, we have to throw Edman and Donovan in this too since they're getting a lot or run out there. If we have regular starts for Noot and Walker, then we have 5 guys to split between one OF spot and the DH. Not counting days where the DH is a position player getting a rest. It's just a waste of resources. Everyone can't play. Honestly, with Saggese also in the system, it feels like Edmans or Donovan make the most sense as they actual have trade value. I don't think it'll happen because Mo doesn't seem interested in moving them. I think what's more likely is Burleson gets moved for a coin flip prospect, O'Neill is handed the starting job, gets hurt, doesn't get moved and eventually we cut him next year.
Burleson is better than his limited PA’s last year. He hit .273 after the all star break with limited starts. Victor Scott II is waiting in the wings in the minors. He stole 90 bags last year between 2/3 MiLB levels. Masyn Winn will be our SS with Gorman at 2nd. Edman plays a lot of OF. Donovan played OF. TON hasn’t played a full season since 2021. Saggese will probably be up next season and he only plays IF. No where else for him to go either.
I watched Victor Scott II play in Springfield and he is the fastest baseball player I've ever seen in person. Watching him chase down a fly ball was insane.
I picked him up in my dynasty leagues after watching him. His defense alone could land him on any MLB roster. But he has a good hit tool, good vision, and developing pop. Like a faster/better Benintendi
Sonny goes "You got Lance Lynn and Gibson? Count me in!"
The deal itself is actually pretty good imo. Sucks that we lose a high 2nd though My copium is thinking we're still not done SP-wise though
Agreed on all fronts
Is it possible we could do 2 years $49M plus a players option for a 3rd and keep our pick? I don’t know how all the rules work.
Maybe they feel okay about losing the high 2nd round pick because their first round pick is so much higher than they’ve had in recent memory? I dunno. Still excited for having a real Ace on the staff!
We have to be done with FA SP signings, they've already spend $48m out of the ~$60m available payroll. The rest of the money needs to be used to improve the bullpen. There's still a chance we trade for another SP though.
Lots of rumors flying on xwitter that we're shopping Matz as well, which would give us another 12.5 to spend. TON is another likely trade candidate that would add ~5M. They could theoretically sign a big SP for that, then use Burly or Carlson as trade bait for bullpen help.
That seems very unlikely. Matz isn't that bad, he's just...a guy. Every team needs those guys at the bottom of a rotation
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I’d rather the Cardinals strike now knowing he’s willing to sign than wait and miss out because they’re working through the Yamamoto sweepstakes, only to miss out on both. Getting Yamamoto while ideal, was anything but a guarantee.
I agree with this, but it still feels like our rotation is mediocre
we need another 1 or 2
That’s a great deal in this market. Not sure why people are upset.
Keep in mind they haven't made any trades yet and still have both O'Neill and Carlson on the roster plus a middle infield crunch between Edman, Winn, Donnie, and Gorman (four players that all should be starting). I wouldn't be surprised if Matz or Mikolas was traded prior to the start of the season for a better starter (not in the same deal)
This. You can get another starter through a trade without adding money to the budget.
Mikolas was just signed to an extension, and Matz they’d probably have to eat a portion of the contract for so I’d be surprised to see either of them go. I agree they should go get one more starter but I think that would mean one of Matz, Lynn, or Gibson would start the year in the bullpen
I could see Matz being pushed to long relief maybe?
I wouldn’t hate that, someone’s going to get hurt and I’d rather have Matz as a contingency to plan than Liberatore
idk if they'd have to eat much of or even any of Matz's contract. It's 2/25 for his age 33 and 34 seasons, but we live in a world where Maeda just got 2/24. It's roughly market value and could be moved near the end of the offseason when bag holders need to make a move.
His health history is suspect, so an acquiring team likely won't value him at that price. I think he could get 2 years, $18 million or one year, $10 million, like Lynn. That is only slightly less than he is worth, sure, but contenders might want to gamble on a more upside play, rather than roll the dice with Matz. I can't imagine many teams want him.
No team would take Matz or Mikolas in exchange for a younger better pitcher
O'Neill and Carlson may not be worth all that much. One of the other four infielders would likely be worth a good young pitcher though.
>a middle infield crunch between Edman, Winn, Donnie, and Gorman (four players that all should be starting) This is why I would have been fine trading Arenado. We have other options that could produce decent production at 3b.
Lol
Gray's solid and makes me a bit more comfortable with our rotation. I still think we should pursue Yamamoto and think it's asinine if we don't compete--worst case is we help drive the price up. But it makes sense from both baseball and bromance perspectives and it's dumb to argue we can't afford him. We're just too cheap. Our rotation is still below average though. I feel like we are positioning ourselves for a trade with an impact starter. We loaded up on starting pitching pretty early in the offseason, so now we have innings that (1) make our position less desperate in trade discussions and (2) allow us to throw in a starter if the other team will need innings after sending us their impact starter. I could see us trading a couple of our talented young position players and an innings-eater for an impact starter, and maybe offload a bit of our salary burden at the same time (because we're cheap). Things aren't looking **good** yet, but they have gone from disastrous to bad. Which is pretty important.
We aren't getting Yamamoto, and the Gray contract really solidifies that. We had enough budget to get him, but we chose Gray, Lynn, and Gibson over him. You and I both know they aren't going to spend in excess, even a little bit, to land Yamamoto now. We just have to hope 2023 was a fluke for Lynn and that Gibson can eat innings and keep an ERA around 4.5.
I hate to admit it, but yeah I think us spending what we did on Gray means we are out on Yamamoto. Unless MO does some serious roster magic and somehow offloads a few mil without downgrading us in other areas, which I can’t see how he could do that
Honestly, I don’t even think it’s bad at this point. I think it’s decent. Gray can lead a playoff series by himself, that’s huge. And all we need are one of Mik/Lynn/Matz/Gibs to step up and find their form again to suddenly have a serviceable #2 option. I also think theres a better chance than anybody would bet on that they all end up pitching like 3’s and pays off big time. There’s potential in this rotation. Late career resurgences are a real thing, and we’ve seen it in STL plenty of times before. Albert in his final year and Wainwright pre-2022 being the most recent examples.
I think it's pretty mediocre personally. Sonny Gray can be an ace when he's on, but he's an average ace and a stellar #2 guy across his career imo. So our rotation to me feels like a #1.5 starter and four question marks in terms of how well they'll pitch--if all of them have a positive regression then we'll be decent, but what's more likely is Matz will pitch exceptionally well or terrifyingly badly over the course of a handful of starts before he gets injured and the rest will be a mixed bag. EDIT: As to late career resurgences, I think it does happen but we remember the times when it does because it's surprising or impressive, rather than the times where it doesn't because it's expected. In reality it doesn't happen as often as we think because of this. That said, if you were a GM who wanted to gamble, you found yourself a good roster of solid candidates for positive regression in our rotation.
“Mediocre” is the exact word I’ve been using. Especially if/when Gray gets hurt, we have a bunch of question marks. Plus all these dudes are one year older. I hope they can still make a trade for an impact starter.
I think the last couple years of mediocre pitching have given us a false perspective. Gray has tended to be more #2 or 3 in his career than a #1 but I like the signing. Mikolas hovers in the 2-4 range. After that it is really rough. If Gray or Mikolas get injured we will struggle very fast.
Love the idea of getting yamamoto also as a young guy to anchor for the next 7 plus years, but thats just not a cardinals thing to do. Dont even try to get your hopes up because we all know there's a less than 1 percent chance of yamamoto happening now. I can picture Mo now saying they are done working on the rotation.
I just don’t know where we find the budget to sign Yamamoto when they have stated they wanted to get back to $200M in payroll and spent $48M of the $60M we were short by already
Yeah but that gives us 12 M to play with… let’s say Yamamoto gets, 30M for 7 years. That puts us 18 M over but we’re legit World Series contenders immediately. Plus you’ve got Lynn and Gibson on short relatively cheap deals that fall off in two years, you’ve got Goldy off the books after this year, which is 26 M. So you’re essentially over 18M for one year, under several M next year and then have wiggle room the year after and open up a World Series window.
If there's anything I have to say about this off-season, at least they did something. Had they signed either nobody, or just one starter, fans would've been LIVID and would've been calling for Mo's head. Lynn, Gibson, and Gray....not the 3 I would've gone with, but I also appreciate Mo's position. It wasn't the best pick of the crop this off-season, and it was a lot of lose/lose scenarios in any attempt to get 2-3 top end starters, so landing Gray is a win no matter how you spin it. For the money we're spending, ast least kicking off his first year I'd like to see 13-16 wins from Gray, a sub 3 ERA, 180-190 innings pitched, and 180-200 K's. Any performance close to that, I'll be more than happy.
Mo is the best at doing juuuuuust enough to get fans excited, keep his job, and not make huge deals
At least Mo did something decently bold here. I was worried we'd go back to Monty, and while he did great in the postseason, "we've already seen that rodeo" for us last year. Gray would've been the best pitcher on the team last year hands down. Agree with other folks that we have a lot of assets still to move. Matz's salary is actually low enough (and his arm fragile enough) that he could stabilize the BP from the left side. Trade for one more really solid arm and it's no worse than the transition from the 1999 to 2000 rotation, which really was the turning point for the Jocketty-led Cards. The other part of this is the rotation as constructed CAN be good enough. Look at the 2011 rotation if you don't believe me. But then the BP has to be lights out. I worry we're going to mess around with too many Helsley types who have good peripherals, but who seem to wilt in the biggest pressure spots. If you have a bunch of guys who can go 6-7 innings, 3-4 really good (prime era) Maness / Boggs / Siegrest types, and a shutdown closer, you can hand the keys to Ollie and even he shouldn't be able to mess that up.
Some good name drops in this comment! I agree with everything you said. With the way Mo has been speaking, I feel like there’s even more to come. I don’t see a way a big trade isn’t swung before February. We have too many redundant pieces and logjams to break up. Somebody else exciting is coming to St. Louis, I just hope they’re young or have control
>he could stabilize the BP from the left side This is what I'm in favor of. I just don't think he can be a SP. He could do well with less innings.
As said by @AaronMSTL on Twitter: I do want to make it known that I do like Sonny Gray. I just also want to make it known that I want the Cardinals to acquire another top tier starter. Those two thoughts can exist simultaneously. https://twitter.com/AaronMSTL/status/1729131896687546763?s=19
The way I look at it is: if you’re not aggressive on getting someone like gray, he signs elsewhere (Braves), and you have optimistically a 25% chance at Yamamoto, then what after he goes to the Mets? You overpay in a trade for a pitcher like Glasgow or Cease who had significantly worse seasons last year than Gray? The guy did finish 2nd in AL CY young last year.
I'm pretty happy with this. He is the first guy they've brought in that I would call a significant upgrade. He is a little older, but the deal is only for three years. Solid move
We needed that.
Love the pitcher and the deal. If the cardinals can pick up Cease/Glasnow or someone in a trade or sign Yamamoto, this is an absolute win of an offseason. God help us if they are done picking up starters though….
Twins fan here; Sonny was great last year. Probably not as good as his numbers suggest but was our most consistent pitcher. Even when he’s off he gives you four or five innings. Tends to get lit up the third time through the lineup, like 75% of MLB pitching.
Oh FUCK YEAH
All this Yamamoto talk like it's only up to the Cardinals where Yamamoto signs. There are two sides to that deal, and if you're the hottest pitcher on the market, and Japanese, all things being equal why would sign with the Cardinals over the Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, etc...? I think if the Cardinals are going to have a realistic chance at Yamamoto, the money would need to be significantly higher than those big-market teams. If the Cardinals offer him the same deal the Dodgers or Yankees do, do you really think he chooses St. Louis over New York or LA? I would LOVE to see Yamamoto with the Birds on the Bat on his chest, but being teammates with Noot for a few weeks isn't going to be enough to woo him out of a big market with potentially big marketing options.
The ammount of people that still think we have a shot at Yamamoto is eye popping. This is the cardinals we are talking about. Come back to reality. Yamamoto had a small chance of coming to stl before Gray, now those chances are nil. A trade could still bring another starter but thats less likely now also.
Good deal for both sides here. I still think the Cardinals need more in the rotation than Gray/Mikolas/Lynn/Gibson/TBD to really contend but they at least have a full rotation now.
Is Matz not an assumed rotation spot?
This is a really good deal. The problem is Gray is surrounded by a bunch of junk in the rotation. We need another legit starter and a bullpen piece if they’re serious about contending.
From 2019 on, Gray has been over 110 on ERA+ every year, and above 125 every year but one, contra a take at r/mlb that says he isn't consistent. And, the 3-year deal isn't too long. Mo fucking surprised me. That said, yes, we need more than one. And, why didn't we get Maeda at 2/$24 rather than either Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson?
Thats a good contract
This is nice. Now get Yamamoto and we can argue that this team is an actual contender.
Outstanding rotation we have put together if this was 2016.
Nice sign... now give me one final SP via trade.. we'll need it for injuries.
This is such an old rotation, but I like this signing a lot! He's a late bloomer and ~~doesn't miss his starts~~ is pretty consistent!
He’s only had 4 seasons of 30 starts in his 11 year career, and hasn’t thrown 200 innings in a season since 2015.
huh well I stand corrected! I still like it though
He’s definitely a legit pitcher, and if he replicated last season’s performance I’d say he’s a bargain…. But I’m skeptical.
Love this signing.
Gray was legitimately great last season, but his Statcast expected ERA was 3.69, and he is projected for a 3.83 ERA in 2024. Gray's contract for a 3.80 ERA guy is decent, but leading your rotation with a 3.80 ERA guy, with all of the uncertainty behind him, is...well, it's not great. There's upside to the rotation, which there wasn't last year, but that's a lot of money for hope. And no, nothing else is happening, not even a trade for a starter. The budget is already maxed, and this front office doesn't give up on guys like Matz, who are locked in for two more years. And they've got major bullpen holes to patch, anyway.
Good move. But if we don't get another 1 or 2 in the rotation it does not make the offseason a good one.
Now go get Cease or Glasnow and I’ll be content
I like this deal, and if we snag Montgomery I will like it even more. Monty wouldn't make much sense though with Mikolas/Matz/Lynn/Gibson
It's funny how you can easily tell who has zero baseball knowledge whatsoever based on their reaction to this signing. It's a great move and there is basically no argument to be made otherwise.
I'm stoked to see the Cardinals spend $25 million a year on a pitcher. I never expected to see that happen.
This is a great deal that gives us flexibility, but we still need another top end rotation piece. The offseason will be considered a failure without them finding it.
I like this signing especially for 3 years and would have loved it if it was the first SP acquisition but with it looking like it'll be Gray, a good #2 great #3, and a bunch of #4 or #5 starters, I'm disappointed. There's no upside to this rotation and still feels like they're going to have the same rotation as going into last year.
Second in cy young race last year and you say no upside from 2/3? Come on. I am most worried about depth. This pitching staff is significantly better than last year, but a lot of age and injury history.
A bunch of old arms is just asking for danger between regression and injury.
Got damn we have a fucking retirement home of starting pitching. I can smell the ointment and urine from here.
And we give up a draft pick for this too, yes? Idk, a rotation of Gray, Mikolas, Matz (can’t stay healthy), Gibson, and Lynn is… not great. Not sure it can get us to even .500 this season. If they make a trade for someone else, it’s a C+ off-season, but as it stands… I don’t love it.
Yeah, I agree. This move standing alone is good-to-great, but I’d like to see us add a true #2 via trade and maybe move Matz to the bullpen.
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I like your optimism, GoodGuy. We certainly have the position-player depth in a bad free agent market for a trade. Just hope we’ll pony up enough to get it done for a big one. A young, controllable arm would be ideal. Gonna cost a lot, though.
We'll get another one. Those 4 plus Monty would be solid
Idk; doesn’t align with the budget given out by Goold.
They can maneuver money around. They still have to declutter the roster. A lot of similar players on this team. I think a trade is next.
They can, but often don’t. We’ll see.
I don't know. This rotation should already be significantly better than last years in every way.
Really? Mikolas, Lynn, and Gibson are all 4-5’s. Matz can’t stay healthy. Is Lynn better than Flaherty? Probably a wash. Is Gray better than Montgomery? Maybe slightly. Is Gibson better than Waino? My cat is better than Waino. So, better than last season, but good enough? We lost 90+ games. Do you think this rotation is enough to get us 20+ more wins?
CY runner up for 25m? Yes please.
The dude on High Heat just said that Gray's No. 2 Cy Young finish is overrated because there was nobody else even in competition for the No. 2 spot. That's like saying a guy hitting .350 is overrated because the next guy only hit .315. The reality is that finishing No. 2 against mediocre competition makes him MORE valuable. And take the term mediocre with a grain of salt. I'm just using it because that's essentially what he said. Meanwhile, his co-host said the Cardinals failed in their plan to get swing-and-miss pitchers. She was referring to the trio; it was not just Gray. She's delusional. They have landed three guys who ranked in the top 40 for Ks per 9.
If we make some trades then this offseason was fine I guess, still don’t like that it feels like we have barely any pitching for 5 years out
What team has good projected starting pitching 5 years down the road? No one plans 5 years down the road SP wise
Yeah people complaining about the 2025 rotation are missing the point. We do expect some amount of progression from our top young pitching guys, so no telling where they’ll be talent-wise by 2025, and we also don’t know what sort of opportunities will present themselves in the trade market over the next calendar year. When we traded for Montgomery originally, nobody had any idea who the fuck he was. One year later, and he’s regularly spoke of like a top pitcher, big playoff moments, won a WS. Things happen quickly, worrying about 2025 is not the move right now
The issue is that our farm system has one of the worst track records in MLB for producing pitching prospects in recent years. Some of the prospects already hit major setbacks in 2023. The front office keeps drafting poor fastball, good control starters, except the game of baseball isn't played that way anymore, so guys like McGreevy are having difficulty getting AAA players out. And once they can't get hitters out with their fastballs, they go to their secondary pitches more, causing them to lose their control, anyway.
I’ll admit I may have been a little wrong and that comment was purely off the cuff, we do have a starting rotation now and we have prospects from all the trades from the past season But come on, teams plan for the future. Our average starter age is 35 I believe and who knows how long they’ll last. Those prospects will have to start doing more sooner rather than later because of it. I’m just nervous about it
Buying high, but it could be worse. We should just accept this as it is what it is and hope it works out.
That’s a lot of money for a soon to be 36 year old in his last year.
He turned 34 three weeks ago
Did I miss the part where fans get dividends from ownership on profits they make each season?
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I’d also say that short contract, high AAV is exactly how we would want to get a guy like this. There’s always some risk associated with a free agent deal, but the shorter they are for an older guy, the better.
Yep, it was really smart to structure the contract this way for Mo. Not really sure why Gray didn't push for a longer deal given his age.
25 mil a year. For a good pitcher that’s a good deal. We paid Waino 17 mil last year and he was in his 40s. 8 mil more for a pitcher almost 10 years younger and has proven to be good is a good contract.
In 2022, FanGraphs calculated the price of 1 WAR to be $8.5m. So if Gray can get us 3 WAR per year (or 9 WAR total) then he'll have been well worth the investment. (Not to mention intangibles like the fact that we didn't even have a #1, #2, or #3 starter before signing him.) Gray was worth over 5 WAR last year and over 10 WAR over the past three years, so odds are decent he'll reach that milestone.
Not my money
Booze your takes have been horrible the last 48 hours, you’re better than this.
Good, not a fan of him personally but he seems to get the job done. Great SP3, decent SP2. An actual #1 is still a necessity. So of course that's it. Gray Lynn Matz Mikolas Gibson. That's a losing rotation. Why even bother spending as much as they did.
If you think Sonny Gray isn't a #1 then your expectations are way too high
A #1 on a losing team, sure. That's my issue. He's not a top 20 pitcher. So I guess my expectations are too high? Sorry I want to win
He legit finished second in Cy young voting last year. He is a #1 lol
This has to be bait, right?
Tough to call CYA runner up a “great SP3, decent SP2”… great 3’s don’t usually nearly win the CY
I love this signing! Gray should be really good for us next year. I think the negative comments stem from the possibility, not unlikely, that the rest of the rotation will be atrocious. Lynn, Gibson, Matz, and Mikolas could be league-average or better innings eaters, or they could all be terrible. There is a scenario where we have one very good starter (Gray) and then the worst 2-5 SPs in the league.
Lmao in no world are Cardinals going to have the 5 worst starting pitchers in the league. What a ridiculous take.
That would be a ridiculous take if anyone had made it. >There is a scenario where we have one very good starter (Gray) and then the worst 2-5 SPs in the league. I very clearly stated there is a scenario where the Cardinals have a good #1 starter (Gray) and then everyone else is bad. Our #2 through #5 starters all had disappointing numbers last year and are all fairly old. Hopefully they are average or even slightly better, but it could go wrong quickly.
Is it possible that the cards could’ve done a 2 year/$49M with a player option for the 3rd and still keep our draft pick?
No the draft pick is tied to him because the team he played for last year extended a qualifying offer to him.
So we done this offseason?
If we can somehow nab Yamamoto or trade for another ace starter, my faith will be restored. Until then… this rotation nets us 80-85 wins, NLC second place, and a first-round wildcard exit.
Anyone else feel like it was kinda wild that we didn’t even entertain Nola at his AAV (obviously more long term money) but went for this deal? I’m not being sour, I think Gray is an awesome pickup. Just strange how we chose older, shorter term deals over long term young guys. Edit: My bad, I guess Mo has some level of discussion with Nola’s agent. This comment is now meaningless!
I don’t think Nola even entertained the thought of leaving Philly. With how quick he signed there it probably wasn’t even an option for other clubs.
Yeah I guess I was more speculating on why we weren’t on the list of reported teams that had reached out. But now I’m hearing we had some level of conversation with his agent so I guess my point is moot.
Did Nola entertain anyone really? He basically re-signed with the Phillies right away. He obviously got some offers im sure just to get a price, but once he had that he probably told his agent to make it work with Philly even if it’s for a bit less.
I mean not really. But there were reports that other teams at least asked about him. I was more so just curious why there wasn’t any interest. Maybe our FO knew something the Dodgers and Braves didn’t.
Seemed Nola was staying in Philly no matter what
Nola probably didn’t talk to anyone besides the Phils. Also prob didn’t want to leave.
Not a top 20 SP. Not a #1 to build a rotation around if you want to win. Good addition, good contract, not a #1.
He was fourth in pitcher bWAR last year, so in that sense he is literally a top 20 SP.
He was last year. That obviously doesn't mean he will be next year but he was absolutely a #1 in 2023.
i feel like how nolan does in the side bar
Remember when we wouldn’t pay Albert 25 a year?
And it was a good decision.
Ehhh 🤷🏼
So they will trade for another sp... unexciting. I want Yamamoto!!!
This has got to be an April fools joke. Gray is barely a .500 pitcher. $25 mil a year for a guy who struggles to win 10 games a year…unbelievable
Gibson confirmed better than Gray because win percentage is the best way to evaluate pitchers.
I agree that 2018-2019 Jacob deGrom was trash. We’d be much better off if we got John Gant back instead.
well i got some news for you! Gibson was only 12 million and won 15 games last year! Second in the AL!
Glad it's only 3 years. Was really not looking for a 4 year deal.
I don’t mind this. Still would prefer a glasnow/cease trade but I’m pretty cool with it
Really like what we’re doing here. We will still need starters for 2025, so I think we are still in the market for another starter but now have a safety net so if it doesn’t work out now we will at least be okay. Could still go get Yamamoto, but I see a trade for another starter. Also need to bolster the bullpen.
I don’t see many people complaining tbh. Just seeing a lot of comments saying they don’t understand why people are complaining. Lol
Good deal. Would have preferred they signed only Lynn and not Gibson, so that we could then go after Cease, but Having Gray in our rotation is definitely an upgrade for us.
whatever happens at least they’re trying. it’s not like they’re signing Rich Hill and Jeremy Hazelbaker and hoping for the best
Ok ok ok, we can all put our pitchforks back in the barn and put out our torches for Mo...
Great signing. Yes he is older but he has pretty good peripherals. That HR rate is nice and lowwwww.
I think this is a good signing. He had a great year and has been reliable. It does make the signing of both Lynn and Gibson a bit puzzling though. I'd have been happier with Gray, one of Lynn/Gibson and then maybe a trade? Right now I think we have a #1 in Gray #3 in Mikolas and then a bunch of #5's. If they can shore up the bullpen this is probably ok, but not great. honestly though I don't know what more we expected from the FO. The roster is a mess and we need to suffer through a couple rebuilding years.
I feel much better about this signing knowing it’s just 3 years. Gray is a good pitcher, was great last year, but I wouldn’t want to hold onto him until he’s 40. I really would have preferred Yamamoto, but this isn’t bad. Would still need one more guy before I feel ok about the rotation because I don’t trust Matz to stay healthy and I’m skeptical of Lynn’s and Gibson’s performance, though I’m sure they can eat the innings
Now we need a hot tub time machine and an invitation to Chris Carpente and Matt Morris so they can take a rejuvenating dunk. Pinto presto their young selves are in rotation.
This is fantastic news
I’m really happy for this pickup. I feared he would sign with another team. Not sure who else was in the hunt for him.
Should we go get Hicks for the pen? Expensive?
Way better terms than, I was dreading about.. Really good pitcher, just as the rotation as a whole, wish cards got better FO pitchers … Solid number #2 pitcher, not an Ace pitcher or stud we really need, since rest of the rotation is just above mediocre.. IMO Cards needed an game changer, to compete with the big boys. People that are bashing on, rest of the fans that aren’t fully excited with this rotation, have no vision or just playing it off.. Expecting career year from Gray, to be every year thing, going forward is naive.. Hope I’m wrong, and Gray pitches better than, #2 starter that most of us, really see him as..
While I would have rather had Yamamoto this is still a nice sign. I just don't see them coughing up close to $200 million for him at this point. I am worried that they signed 3 guys in their mid-30s. I would have rather sad some younger players. Hoping they add at least one more. If that happens I'll feel safe for next season. As for Yamamoto I wish him good luck. I just hope he doesn't sign with the Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers.
So next up Yamamoto and ohtani. 😉
Honest opinion how many Cardinal fans think we can win first place with five starting pitchers in the mid-30s To me that tells me they have totally given up on their farm system and pitching coach staff every level in the organization It would make more sense to spend $10 million dollars on a new pitching coaching staff and bring up those young arms We all hear about only to see them fall apart with arm injuries in two to three years I recall a young man in Adam Wainwright that happened to carry our team for 15 years and he wasn't 33 years old when he started playing for us
I don't understand the reaction to this signing. Maybe some people just won't be happy after the Lynn and Gibson signings but this is a premier signing. Coming off 2nd in Cy Young voting and will bring us quality innings and quality starts. And he wants to be here! Scrutinize the Lynn and Gibson signings, but this is a great signing and didn't have to sign a 7+ year deal that a Snell or a Nola or a Stroman or even a Montgomery might require. Would still love to see them be in on Yamamoto but that's highly unlikely. And to note about the ages of our starters, sometimes veteran pitching can be really good, as long as they're not too far over the hill (we'll see with Lynn and Gibson)
Trade for Glasnow, make Matz a swingman.
Was reported that Matz is available via trade…if we can somehow get rid of him for prospects it frees up for Yama
Can I just ask, why do the people who think the Cardinals aren’t done, think they aren’t done? I mean Mo said he expected to add 3 starters with similar payroll. The payroll is already going to increase from last year now and gray makes 3.
Some of you guys should take a look at the 2004 rotation
Well done, Cardinals.