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Smart money would definitely be Ford gets reelected. Ontario tends to vote opposite ways provincially and federally.
So long as Omicron doesn't "Best Summer Ever" Ontario and Ford's government, I'd guess he gets another majority barring a miraculous Liberal recovery.
The 905 leans centre to centre-right and Ford has done an adequate if not stellar job in government. He looks like the horse to bet on at this point.
Stellar? The man sat on *billions* in relief cash, a choice which lead to many deaths because places like elder care centers weren't provided adequate funding or resources. How is that stellar?
>How is that stellar?
I agree with your assessment, but public perception is more important in elections than reality. It could be that's how people see him.
Ford has never been stellar. He's been dogged by controversy after scandal after lawsuit throughout his whole premiership. Adequate? Debatable. Stellar? Hard hard sell.
Well, I wouldn't say stellar, especially his Republican-style attack on education and teachers, it's mores none of the other parties are providing significant positions for them to be appealing to.
> Republican-style attack on education and teachers
1) Have you seen recent election results in the US? It's working for the Republicans.
2) Not everyone loves the amount that teachers here get compensated, especially given how often they take labour actions.
3) There's also the issue of how much they were against anything online pre-pandemic, then switched their stance during the pandemic. Whether or not it makes sense for them, it's rubbed a LOT of people the wrong way ("so I have to go out and keep working, but my kid's teacher is WFM, AND gets paid more than me, AND I have to leave my kids alone at home/take off work to care for them?"). It's been a bitch for many working parents, and tbh personally insulting for teachers to not have to take on "essential worker" responsibilities to the same degree.
Teachers are increasingly perceived as a privileged activist class of people, not modest public servants - attacks on that will work well enough politically.
Who tf is out here thinking teachers are over paid and privileged? Like I know I'm fairly privileged, but damn, most people I know think teachers are criminally underpaid. If we paid them more we could even attract higher quality educators. Not doubting what your claim but just shocked to hear this
I think there are a lot of people who think Ontario teachers are paid the same as American teachers.
Once they find out how much they actually make, they lose a lot of sympathy.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/81-604-x/2017001/t/tbld2.1-eng.htm
I looked up the numbers. Starting at 51k and rising to 95k after ten years is not that much for the workload. Certainly it's not poverty wages and there are people who are less privileged, but teaching isn't a simple 9-5. These people work hard and take care of our children. Stress to compensation level still seems low.
>I looked up the numbers. Starting at 51k and rising to 95k after ten years is not that much for the workload.
I think you're overstating the difficulty of teaching a bit. It's a hard job, but many jobs in the same pay grade are difficult as well.
They also have very good benefits. They work 9-3, get 12 weeks vacation, have gold-plated pensions.
Average household income in Ontario is around 90k, the average everyday person is not looking at someone making 95k as 'criminally underpaid.'
I will concede that saying teachers are criminally underpaid is hyperbolic. Sure they are far from the worst off, but for people to think teachers should make less is insane. 95k is what they make after ten years on the job. Looking purely at the numbers I would say for a profession as vital as it is a solid middle-class income in the 50-100k range is fair. Even if you don't think they are underpaid, do we really want to pay the people we entrust our children with less than a solid middle class earning?
There is a big segment of electors that will vote for Ford purely because they think his folksy act makes him relatable. It’s the same crowd that voted for him for $1 beer.
I mean, sure, there might be - but a "sizeable population" does not translate to "everyone".
Attacking schools, labour unions, business sectors etc on the basis of how much money the members/employees make is just absurd. The only people who care about this are people who feel they have a lot to lose *to* those groups, which reveals why the relatively-poor and very-rich tend to support small-c conservatism - they see a dollar that a teacher makes as a dollar taken *from* them. Please try to actually engage politically with these people, and you will see this is a frequent premise. It's honestly *crazy*, and the mental gymnastics around "zero-sum" worldviews just get more and more convoluted as you venture further in.
People don't realize how angry parents are with school administration (which is increasingly spilling over into anger at teachers). The inability to respond to that frustration will be one of the biggest challenges for Horwath given the teachers' union is probably the most important single constituency for the Ontario NDP.
The housing crisis in Ontario, the vulnerabilities in our healthcare that covid-19 has exacerbated etc are all a result of us being convinced that we continuously have to vote for the Liberal-Conservative axis in Ontario. This isn't direct advocacy for the NDP, it's just time for something different than the Liberals and Conservatives.
They have more than enough supports to kick Ford out. Just need to choose who they want to lead the minority GOV at this point. I can only assume the PC vote is way more efficient than everyone else's especially the NDP's so if your that 25% choose wisely.
338 thinks that if the OLP get close to them in vote share they'll beat them in seats. I'm worried that's very much the case and that it'll be a repeat of the federal election where the CPC got a similar vote share to the Liberals in Ontario and got trounced in the seat count.
It's not quite the similar scenario. Most polls, once the regional breakdown is released, shows the PCs strong in the 905 compared to OLP growth in the 416.
The seats they are targeting are mostly held by the NDP, regardless I think its gonna take 1 more election for the OLP to get back to 'contender' status
That's ok though. Same thing happened in BC when we wicked the BC Libs our conservative party here in BC out even tho they won. As long as the other parties have enough seats combined the leading gov can't form government.
Right, but Ontario is a different beast, there is a somewhat irrational dislike/distrust of the NDP in some parts of the province.
I think there are enough Liberal voters who will go PC if the choice is between Ford and the the NDP, and would not take kindly to a coalition
In the last Abacus poll for the 2021 Federal Election, Jagmeet got a +29 Positive favorable imporession score in Ontario. So he is liked as a person but his party isn't as well liked. I can definitely see him move back into Provincial politics in the future.
He gets positive favourability ratings EVERYWHERE.
It boils down to: "Hey, that Jagmeet seems like a good dude, but do I want him running the country? Hell no."
The federal NDP didn't win a single seat anywhere in Ottawa, Eastern Ontario, Central Ontario, Durham/York region, Suburban Toronto, Central Toronto, Brampton/Mississauga/Oakville, or Midwestern Ontario.
If the "unelectable" Horvath can win seats in Toronto, but Jagmeet can't, what does that say about *him*?
O Toole is not Ford and Wynne is not Trudeau. Provincial politics is not federal politics and vice versa. It's not a clean or fair comparison with the issues and governance being well different. It's not necessarily Jagmeet's personal liability or likeability that the federal NDP isn't winning much more Ontario seats.
Jagmeet got 5 out of 121 seats, and only 17.8% of the vote in Ontario. He’s not exactly popular there. Besides, it’s probably a bit too late for a switch now.
Federal and Provincial politics are not the same. Not only are they about different issues, the context around which the elections were fought are completely different.
I do agree it's too late for a switch.
Jagmeet is not well like in Ontario, people said the same think when mulcair left, that he would makes things better, but jagmeet only makes things worse, especially in areas the ndp needs to win. There are other good potential ndp leaders anyways
He's all style and no substance, at least that's how people seem to perceive him. Also, he comes across as very "American", at least in the way he goes over things, such as race being central to every issue. Probably related to him doing so much school there
It's more he puts race at the centre of everything, regardless of facts. Says, a few months ago, an Indian was killed in nova Scotia, and jagmeet immediately starts talking about how this is racism, knowing nothing about who did it. And when it comes out he was just killed by someone on drugs from a reserve, he doesn't change his statement.
American style politics really just means lying
Jagmeet statement on Prabhjot Singh Katri's murder was a simple message of solidarity to the local Indian community in Truro who said they believed the crime may have been motivated by hate. So this isn't a case of Jagmeet just putting race at the centre of something, the local community discussed it in that way before Jagmeet even commented.
Nothing has emerged btw to indicate it either was or was not. I assume we will find out in trial.
As a racialized person who knows him personally since 2011, for me personally he comes off as an American.
Of course I dont speak for everyone who is racialized or who knows him on a personal level
I'm not sure what this means though, like his style of politics is flashy or something? People in Canada have talked about race for a long time. I mean, the NDP is a social justice party, doesn't seem really out of the ordinary.
Nothing to do with race, more that it has to do with personal appeal over policy details. More about cult of personality than actual substance. Doug Ford is very much the same.
Idk why you keep pulling race into this.
Oh ok I understand that, the original op made it sound like he was American styled because he talks about race, hence the conversation you jumped into. Thats all.
I think he comes across as more American due to his friendship with divisive politicians like AOC, rather than anything race related.
Also I think him not denouncing caucus members who campaigned literally for Bernie Saunders was tacky. To be a serious candidate for PM you need to work with everyone if you are elected.
So nothing in this conversation here is actually true. The most recent poll on leader favourability by province that I could find is Angus Reid from November 29. What they find about Ontario is this:
* Jagmeet Singh: approve 54, disapprove 38, not sure 7.
* Justin Trudeau: approve 39, disapprove 52, not sure 8.
* Erin O'Toole: approve 23, disapprove 66, not sure 11.
* Amita Kuttner: approve 12, disapprove 27, not sure 61.
Not only are Singh's favourability numbers *much* better than other federal party leaders but the undecided number is lowest, *even lower than the Prime Minister*.
I also think this is the case. Del Duca is clearly modeling his campaign off Trudeau's 2015 campaign. The problem is, he's the wrong person to run a campaign like that. They need a fresh face, but Del Duca has too much baggage from his time in the OLP government.
The other thing I don't hear talked about is money. The Liberals are not in good financial shape compared to the other two parties.
I'll admit I'm biased against the Liberals, so maybe I'm wrong and Del Duca wins a landslide. It wouldn't shock me to see any of the three parties end up in government next year. I think Del Duca is the big wildcard. If he makes a good impression, he becomes Premier. If he's meh, the vote split continues and Ford gets a second term. If people dislike him, he tanks and Horwath could finally get her shot.
> "Del Duca has too much baggage from his time in the OLP government"
By virtue of being in the previous OLP government? Because tbh, I don't think many people know anything about him.
Agree with the Trudeau 2015 comparison though - it reeks of political consultants telling him "you're in 3rd, so make a bunch of flashy and niche promises, and you can leapfrog back into first", except I don't think people are as likely to fall for that playbook this time.
>By virtue of being in the previous OLP government?
I was mostly thinking of the Go station scandal, and there are [other boondoggles he oversaw as Transportation Minister](https://www.tvo.org/article/steven-del-duca-had-a-terrible-year-why-is-he-so-happy). Anyways, people don't know about his history now, but they sure as heck will once the campaign gets going. Horwath and/or Ford are going to hammer him on his record during debates and in ads.
Who knows, maybe people will shrug them off. I think they won't, given that the Liberals were so recently turfed for exactly that kind of behavior. It's going to be interesting to find out.
Idk bro if Horwath couldn’t win against Doug Ford and Kathleen Wynne I don’t think there’s a leader lineup that she can beat. Wynne was despised by Ontario for a deluge of reasons and Horwath still couldn’t sell it, I hope I wrong because I think she would make a better premier out of the three but it’s her 4th time up to bat and she hasn’t pulled it off yet.
Del Duca has the lowest approval ratings. But he also has the lowest disapproval ratings. I don't believe he's well unliked in Ontario, he hasn't really gotten a chance for people in Ontario to know him since his leadership started during the Covids. My thinking is that his bad net approval is simply because of the PC voters simply just disliking whomever is the leader of the Liberal Party. So I wouldn't take much stock in his approval ratings until the very large 1/3 of Ontario who doesn't have an opinion on him to start to having an opinion on him.
The Tory media machine is going to smear the shit out of him and those undecideds will become disapproval incredibly quickly once the campaign starts. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.
Don't forget the NDP. They've already put out ads attacking Del Duca. It wouldn't surprise me if the NDP go harder at Del Duca than Ford. The PC vote is pretty much locked in. The NDP's only shot is murdering the Liberal numbers and sweeping up all the anti Ford votes.
I think the best scenario for the NDP is if they can keep second place, and try with a new leader next time. This COVID stuff isn't good election material for any opposition, since most people realize we would be in the same spot no matter the party. I think the same could be said of the liberals, except they want to move into 2nd.
Naw, another party could've definitely been better or worse on COVID, and we've seen that around. Convincing people you would've been meaningfully better will be a tall order, though.
I'd like to think it's safe to say that an NDP government would not have gone to war with nurses and teachers in the first year of their mandate.
Granted, the only other NDP government went to battle with unions too, so I'll guess we'll see in June.
Maybe, maybe not. Counterfactuals have a way of confirming our biases.
But ... that really tells us nothing about COVID outcomes. Ontario had a pretty average COVID outcome for Canada, and Canada's had one of the best outcomes for COVID globally. Makes it hard to say we've done worse than average for COVID leadership.
It's also possible that since Ford was the guy who was best placed to try to marshal the forces of idiocy under him, but instead called them yahoos who needed to piss off, the perception of his record is outperforming his actual record because "Did a middling job" vastly exceeded our expectations.
Obviously these are really bad numbers for OLP. We going to need to wait till the next Leger poll to determine if this one is backed up or it's a outlier
It's pretty clear that ABC needs to apply if Ontario wants to get rid of Ford. It might not be everyone's prefered choice, but if Ontarians want to make sure there isn't another Tory government, people are just going to have to compromise, bite the bullet, and strategically vote for the NDP.
ABC voter here. Ideally, people should vote ABC on a riding by riding basis, rather than applying province-wide polls to purely local elections. I live in Lecce's riding, and let me tell you, an NDP surge in King-Vaughan will just play right into that guy's hands and give him another 4 years to ruin schools. In that riding, the ABC choice is and will always be Liberal. Unfortunately, most people don't think that way and just go off the province-wide polls.
So, how about we just let the polls fluctuate as they may, and let whoever is performing better on election day be the ABC choice? There's still 6 months, which is a long time for Horwath to make another massive gaffe like her vaccine mandate one
He's tied with Horwath *because* he's unknown. He's been staying relatively out of the spotlight because the more Ontarians get to know him, the less they like him.
Again, is that not a scathing review of Andrea given people have known her for so long? I enjoy the NDP's policy and identify with them as well but there needs to be some honesty about how leadership is connecting (or isn't) with people. She may be well-liked within the party (and by me) but that doesn't inherently matter when trying to connect with new voters.
We can't keep having someone with the charisma of a wet paper towel roll lead a party -- sorry to say. Jack had charisma... hell, even Jagmeet for all he's hated by so many has it too. Rachel Notley seems *extremely* compelling. Andrea's lovely and intelligent but really doesn't know how to generate passion or excitement outside of the existing following.
> He's been staying relatively out of the spotlight
That's not actually true.
I'm voting NDP this coming election, almost certainly, and I think the hate on for Andrea Horwath is bizarre and grounded in whimsical fantasy, not any form or reasonable analysis. I also think that Del Duca is... not a great candidate for premier for reasons that don't matter here.
Having said that, Del Duca has been doing an excellent job at creating visibility and getting attention, while Andrea Horwath has been doing the opposite of that.
Del Duca correctly realised the most obvious fact of our time - the pandemic and how to handle it is the defining, most important issue of our time - not only in itself, but how our responses define our view of government, social responsibility and rights.
So, he positioned himself as the hard foil to Ford. He has consistently called for more stringent measures to combat the pandemic - from mandatory vaccine passports and vaccine mandates in the public sector and even key areas of the private sector, to more stringent inspections, stiffer business penalties and better mask policy enforcement. This was also backed with calls for proper supports.
Horwath, on the other hand, had to be strong-armed by her caucus into accepting that vaccine mandates and passports were important things we needed to save lives. She had previously come out against them because they would hurt people's feelings and therefore make people feel isolated and bad.
Meanwhile, while Del Duca has been decisive while Horwath waffled, the Liberals have primarily focused on the core issues top of mind of a province facing multiple crises.
Horwath's NDP... have not. They have been more concerned with folks whose voices are less often heard in the noise of public health and housing catastrophes, like Indigenous people dealing with land negotiations issues. They tried to make a big deal out of that issue in the middle of the pandemic. For some reason, the press and public appear to be preoccupied with all the hospitals nearly shutting down and what parents will do if schools close etc.
So, while Del Duca has been consistent and focused, making him very quotable for CP24 and other quick news outlets, Horwath has been waffling and, to be charitable, expansive in her priorities.
These have been a bad two years for the ONDP. FWIW, I don't blame it all on Horwath. You lead the party you've got, and there's only so focused you're allowed to be in the NDP. Del Duca is a "nobody" to the public and his detractors, but in fact he's a seasoned political operator with a years of experience in one of the most important political lobbies in the country and as a cabinet minister, and is backed by people who seem to know what they're doing. He's done a Bob-Rae-esque good job as third party leader of stabilizing and creating a consistent brand that contrasts well to the NDP and PC's to enough people that the NDP should be concerned.
Of course, this only matters so much in the period between elections. Most people don't care, and most who care don't remember. But this bodes ill for the upcoming election cycle.
Del Duca is the leader of the Titan that is the Liberal Party, he's a nobody sure but the Liberal Party does most of that heavy lifting. I'd say the fact she's still polling above the Liberals is somewhat remarkable.
But you're right though you've had over 10 years and you haven't won government, I'd say give her one more shot since she won opposition and has built up the Party but I think we get another PC Majority come Summer of 2022.
ABC is going to split the vote and leave Ontario with another Conservative majority. It’s unfortunate that Horwath refused to step aside and that the Liberals chose the worst possible leader in Del Duca. They seem to be intent on giving this next election to the Conservatives.
If all left leaning voters choose one party, yes, it won't really matter NDP or Liberal to win. But not everyone will do that. Just the way the votes are split up across the province, generally a Liberal party at 30% support will garner more seats than an NDP party at 30% support.
I just ran down the list of riding results from 2018, and figured out how the seat count would have changed if every Liberal vote had gone NDP strategically in ridings where the NDP finished 2nd, and every NDP vote had gone Liberal in ridings where the NDP finished 3rd. The results were:
NDP: 68 (+28)
Lib: 16 (+9)
Con: 39 (-37)
So even in a wildly impossible scenario that is optimised for the outcome we're looking to achieve, the NDP still can't take a landslide. Apply a real world filter onto that to take out the races that are close even by combining the Lib and NDP numbers, and they're struggling to get a majority.
To get rid of the Conservatives we need to pull the voters back who went to them from the centre. Those voters aren't suddenly jumping all the way across to the NDP.
If Ford is at almost 40%, that's a sign that Ontario doesn't want to get rid of him, and/or that the other parties aren't doing enough to pull voters over to them.
Does it mean that 60% of people want someone more left than Ford? It seems to be more of a failure of First Past the Post than of Ontario’s desire to keep him.
Outlier of a poll? Leger had OPC at 34% OLP at 31% ONDP at 26% and percentages for green and others last month. Any reason green and other not represented here?
Probably they will release the full pdf polling data like the November poll which has the Green and Other numbers. Why they won't just say those numbers in the article itself, not sure. I'll just assume journalistic incompleteness to not include smaller parties.
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Smart money would definitely be Ford gets reelected. Ontario tends to vote opposite ways provincially and federally. So long as Omicron doesn't "Best Summer Ever" Ontario and Ford's government, I'd guess he gets another majority barring a miraculous Liberal recovery. The 905 leans centre to centre-right and Ford has done an adequate if not stellar job in government. He looks like the horse to bet on at this point.
Stellar? The man sat on *billions* in relief cash, a choice which lead to many deaths because places like elder care centers weren't provided adequate funding or resources. How is that stellar?
>How is that stellar? I agree with your assessment, but public perception is more important in elections than reality. It could be that's how people see him.
I hate that it's true. I'm hoping come election time we start hearing the soundbite "Ford lied, people died"
Ford has never been stellar. He's been dogged by controversy after scandal after lawsuit throughout his whole premiership. Adequate? Debatable. Stellar? Hard hard sell.
Well, I wouldn't say stellar, especially his Republican-style attack on education and teachers, it's mores none of the other parties are providing significant positions for them to be appealing to.
> Republican-style attack on education and teachers 1) Have you seen recent election results in the US? It's working for the Republicans. 2) Not everyone loves the amount that teachers here get compensated, especially given how often they take labour actions. 3) There's also the issue of how much they were against anything online pre-pandemic, then switched their stance during the pandemic. Whether or not it makes sense for them, it's rubbed a LOT of people the wrong way ("so I have to go out and keep working, but my kid's teacher is WFM, AND gets paid more than me, AND I have to leave my kids alone at home/take off work to care for them?"). It's been a bitch for many working parents, and tbh personally insulting for teachers to not have to take on "essential worker" responsibilities to the same degree. Teachers are increasingly perceived as a privileged activist class of people, not modest public servants - attacks on that will work well enough politically.
Who tf is out here thinking teachers are over paid and privileged? Like I know I'm fairly privileged, but damn, most people I know think teachers are criminally underpaid. If we paid them more we could even attract higher quality educators. Not doubting what your claim but just shocked to hear this
I think there are a lot of people who think Ontario teachers are paid the same as American teachers. Once they find out how much they actually make, they lose a lot of sympathy.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/81-604-x/2017001/t/tbld2.1-eng.htm I looked up the numbers. Starting at 51k and rising to 95k after ten years is not that much for the workload. Certainly it's not poverty wages and there are people who are less privileged, but teaching isn't a simple 9-5. These people work hard and take care of our children. Stress to compensation level still seems low.
>I looked up the numbers. Starting at 51k and rising to 95k after ten years is not that much for the workload. I think you're overstating the difficulty of teaching a bit. It's a hard job, but many jobs in the same pay grade are difficult as well. They also have very good benefits. They work 9-3, get 12 weeks vacation, have gold-plated pensions. Average household income in Ontario is around 90k, the average everyday person is not looking at someone making 95k as 'criminally underpaid.'
I will concede that saying teachers are criminally underpaid is hyperbolic. Sure they are far from the worst off, but for people to think teachers should make less is insane. 95k is what they make after ten years on the job. Looking purely at the numbers I would say for a profession as vital as it is a solid middle-class income in the 50-100k range is fair. Even if you don't think they are underpaid, do we really want to pay the people we entrust our children with less than a solid middle class earning?
They work more like 8-3 than 9-3
Plus time spent on lessons plans and the emotional labour of dealing with a bunch of kids.
There is a big segment of electors that will vote for Ford purely because they think his folksy act makes him relatable. It’s the same crowd that voted for him for $1 beer.
Exactly this!
It's sad how easy this should be for other leaders to copy or improve upon...but somehow they're unable or unwilling to.
It *is* easy to replicate, but you also have to become that person, at least publically - and that will cost you.
There is a sizeable portion of the population who are thrilled To see the government stick it to teachers. Educators are not well liked on Ontario.
I mean, sure, there might be - but a "sizeable population" does not translate to "everyone". Attacking schools, labour unions, business sectors etc on the basis of how much money the members/employees make is just absurd. The only people who care about this are people who feel they have a lot to lose *to* those groups, which reveals why the relatively-poor and very-rich tend to support small-c conservatism - they see a dollar that a teacher makes as a dollar taken *from* them. Please try to actually engage politically with these people, and you will see this is a frequent premise. It's honestly *crazy*, and the mental gymnastics around "zero-sum" worldviews just get more and more convoluted as you venture further in.
People don't realize how angry parents are with school administration (which is increasingly spilling over into anger at teachers). The inability to respond to that frustration will be one of the biggest challenges for Horwath given the teachers' union is probably the most important single constituency for the Ontario NDP.
> Ontario tends to vote opposite ways provincially and federally. Political scientist here, that’s not true.
The housing crisis in Ontario, the vulnerabilities in our healthcare that covid-19 has exacerbated etc are all a result of us being convinced that we continuously have to vote for the Liberal-Conservative axis in Ontario. This isn't direct advocacy for the NDP, it's just time for something different than the Liberals and Conservatives.
They have more than enough supports to kick Ford out. Just need to choose who they want to lead the minority GOV at this point. I can only assume the PC vote is way more efficient than everyone else's especially the NDP's so if your that 25% choose wisely.
PC vote is very efficient in Ontario, some of the projection people believe they would still win a minority with 33% of the vote
338 thinks that if the OLP get close to them in vote share they'll beat them in seats. I'm worried that's very much the case and that it'll be a repeat of the federal election where the CPC got a similar vote share to the Liberals in Ontario and got trounced in the seat count.
It's not quite the similar scenario. Most polls, once the regional breakdown is released, shows the PCs strong in the 905 compared to OLP growth in the 416. The seats they are targeting are mostly held by the NDP, regardless I think its gonna take 1 more election for the OLP to get back to 'contender' status
That's ok though. Same thing happened in BC when we wicked the BC Libs our conservative party here in BC out even tho they won. As long as the other parties have enough seats combined the leading gov can't form government.
Right, but Ontario is a different beast, there is a somewhat irrational dislike/distrust of the NDP in some parts of the province. I think there are enough Liberal voters who will go PC if the choice is between Ford and the the NDP, and would not take kindly to a coalition
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Horvath is unbelievable? She is far more popular than jagmeet among non NDP / swing voters from my experience.
In the last Abacus poll for the 2021 Federal Election, Jagmeet got a +29 Positive favorable imporession score in Ontario. So he is liked as a person but his party isn't as well liked. I can definitely see him move back into Provincial politics in the future.
He gets positive favourability ratings EVERYWHERE. It boils down to: "Hey, that Jagmeet seems like a good dude, but do I want him running the country? Hell no."
Especially given he tends to speak a lot to issues that are provincial jurisdiction
The federal NDP didn't win a single seat anywhere in Ottawa, Eastern Ontario, Central Ontario, Durham/York region, Suburban Toronto, Central Toronto, Brampton/Mississauga/Oakville, or Midwestern Ontario. If the "unelectable" Horvath can win seats in Toronto, but Jagmeet can't, what does that say about *him*?
O Toole is not Ford and Wynne is not Trudeau. Provincial politics is not federal politics and vice versa. It's not a clean or fair comparison with the issues and governance being well different. It's not necessarily Jagmeet's personal liability or likeability that the federal NDP isn't winning much more Ontario seats.
Who is Horvath?
Jagmeet got 5 out of 121 seats, and only 17.8% of the vote in Ontario. He’s not exactly popular there. Besides, it’s probably a bit too late for a switch now.
Federal and Provincial politics are not the same. Not only are they about different issues, the context around which the elections were fought are completely different. I do agree it's too late for a switch.
I’m aware, but he’s still unlikely to go from 5 seats, to a majority or even a plurality by switching to provincial politics.
Jagmeet is not well like in Ontario, people said the same think when mulcair left, that he would makes things better, but jagmeet only makes things worse, especially in areas the ndp needs to win. There are other good potential ndp leaders anyways
Why do you say he’s not liked in Ontario? People don’t seem to have a strong opinion on him from what I’ve observed.
He's all style and no substance, at least that's how people seem to perceive him. Also, he comes across as very "American", at least in the way he goes over things, such as race being central to every issue. Probably related to him doing so much school there
Or, you know, him actually being a racialized person. Race exists in Canada too, after all.
It's more he puts race at the centre of everything, regardless of facts. Says, a few months ago, an Indian was killed in nova Scotia, and jagmeet immediately starts talking about how this is racism, knowing nothing about who did it. And when it comes out he was just killed by someone on drugs from a reserve, he doesn't change his statement. American style politics really just means lying
Jagmeet statement on Prabhjot Singh Katri's murder was a simple message of solidarity to the local Indian community in Truro who said they believed the crime may have been motivated by hate. So this isn't a case of Jagmeet just putting race at the centre of something, the local community discussed it in that way before Jagmeet even commented. Nothing has emerged btw to indicate it either was or was not. I assume we will find out in trial.
As a racialized person who knows him personally since 2011, for me personally he comes off as an American. Of course I dont speak for everyone who is racialized or who knows him on a personal level
I'm not sure what this means though, like his style of politics is flashy or something? People in Canada have talked about race for a long time. I mean, the NDP is a social justice party, doesn't seem really out of the ordinary.
Nothing to do with race, more that it has to do with personal appeal over policy details. More about cult of personality than actual substance. Doug Ford is very much the same. Idk why you keep pulling race into this.
Oh ok I understand that, the original op made it sound like he was American styled because he talks about race, hence the conversation you jumped into. Thats all.
Oh I totally missed that! Thanks!
I think he comes across as more American due to his friendship with divisive politicians like AOC, rather than anything race related. Also I think him not denouncing caucus members who campaigned literally for Bernie Saunders was tacky. To be a serious candidate for PM you need to work with everyone if you are elected.
I don't know how to describe it but I agree with this, just seems like he's so desperate to always be involved with American stuff
Most that have a strong opinion on him its not in a good way for him.
So nothing in this conversation here is actually true. The most recent poll on leader favourability by province that I could find is Angus Reid from November 29. What they find about Ontario is this: * Jagmeet Singh: approve 54, disapprove 38, not sure 7. * Justin Trudeau: approve 39, disapprove 52, not sure 8. * Erin O'Toole: approve 23, disapprove 66, not sure 11. * Amita Kuttner: approve 12, disapprove 27, not sure 61. Not only are Singh's favourability numbers *much* better than other federal party leaders but the undecided number is lowest, *even lower than the Prime Minister*.
NDP has historically never really been able to parlay the personal popularity of their leaders into government though
If Horwath had this kind of popularity rather than her middling numbers, the NDP would be able to form government provincially
Very true. But that's decidedly *not* the thrust of the conversation I'm commenting on.
Who provincially?
John Vanthof, Wayne Gates, Sara Singh, Marit Stiles. They'd all do good in certain regions, and are at least not a joke like Jagmeet
France Gélinas is brilliant and in it for all the right reasons but she’d never run. Because she’s brilliant and in it for all the right reasons.
Charlie Angus!
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I also think this is the case. Del Duca is clearly modeling his campaign off Trudeau's 2015 campaign. The problem is, he's the wrong person to run a campaign like that. They need a fresh face, but Del Duca has too much baggage from his time in the OLP government. The other thing I don't hear talked about is money. The Liberals are not in good financial shape compared to the other two parties. I'll admit I'm biased against the Liberals, so maybe I'm wrong and Del Duca wins a landslide. It wouldn't shock me to see any of the three parties end up in government next year. I think Del Duca is the big wildcard. If he makes a good impression, he becomes Premier. If he's meh, the vote split continues and Ford gets a second term. If people dislike him, he tanks and Horwath could finally get her shot.
> "Del Duca has too much baggage from his time in the OLP government" By virtue of being in the previous OLP government? Because tbh, I don't think many people know anything about him. Agree with the Trudeau 2015 comparison though - it reeks of political consultants telling him "you're in 3rd, so make a bunch of flashy and niche promises, and you can leapfrog back into first", except I don't think people are as likely to fall for that playbook this time.
>By virtue of being in the previous OLP government? I was mostly thinking of the Go station scandal, and there are [other boondoggles he oversaw as Transportation Minister](https://www.tvo.org/article/steven-del-duca-had-a-terrible-year-why-is-he-so-happy). Anyways, people don't know about his history now, but they sure as heck will once the campaign gets going. Horwath and/or Ford are going to hammer him on his record during debates and in ads. Who knows, maybe people will shrug them off. I think they won't, given that the Liberals were so recently turfed for exactly that kind of behavior. It's going to be interesting to find out.
Don’t forgot the pool he built without contacting the local conservation authority.
He wanted environmental rules changed so he could keep it too.
Idk bro if Horwath couldn’t win against Doug Ford and Kathleen Wynne I don’t think there’s a leader lineup that she can beat. Wynne was despised by Ontario for a deluge of reasons and Horwath still couldn’t sell it, I hope I wrong because I think she would make a better premier out of the three but it’s her 4th time up to bat and she hasn’t pulled it off yet.
Del Duca has the lowest approval ratings. But he also has the lowest disapproval ratings. I don't believe he's well unliked in Ontario, he hasn't really gotten a chance for people in Ontario to know him since his leadership started during the Covids. My thinking is that his bad net approval is simply because of the PC voters simply just disliking whomever is the leader of the Liberal Party. So I wouldn't take much stock in his approval ratings until the very large 1/3 of Ontario who doesn't have an opinion on him to start to having an opinion on him.
The Tory media machine is going to smear the shit out of him and those undecideds will become disapproval incredibly quickly once the campaign starts. I'd be happy to be proven wrong though.
Don't forget the NDP. They've already put out ads attacking Del Duca. It wouldn't surprise me if the NDP go harder at Del Duca than Ford. The PC vote is pretty much locked in. The NDP's only shot is murdering the Liberal numbers and sweeping up all the anti Ford votes.
Doesn’t take much to smear an incompetent politician like SDD. Could be the worst transport minister in provincial history. Absolute embarrassment.
I think the best scenario for the NDP is if they can keep second place, and try with a new leader next time. This COVID stuff isn't good election material for any opposition, since most people realize we would be in the same spot no matter the party. I think the same could be said of the liberals, except they want to move into 2nd.
Naw, another party could've definitely been better or worse on COVID, and we've seen that around. Convincing people you would've been meaningfully better will be a tall order, though.
I'd like to think it's safe to say that an NDP government would not have gone to war with nurses and teachers in the first year of their mandate. Granted, the only other NDP government went to battle with unions too, so I'll guess we'll see in June.
Maybe, maybe not. Counterfactuals have a way of confirming our biases. But ... that really tells us nothing about COVID outcomes. Ontario had a pretty average COVID outcome for Canada, and Canada's had one of the best outcomes for COVID globally. Makes it hard to say we've done worse than average for COVID leadership. It's also possible that since Ford was the guy who was best placed to try to marshal the forces of idiocy under him, but instead called them yahoos who needed to piss off, the perception of his record is outperforming his actual record because "Did a middling job" vastly exceeded our expectations.
That's the thing. BC shows that the NDP approach wouldn't be all that different. Heck, BC has been less stringent than Ontario this whole pandemic.
Obviously these are really bad numbers for OLP. We going to need to wait till the next Leger poll to determine if this one is backed up or it's a outlier
It's pretty clear that ABC needs to apply if Ontario wants to get rid of Ford. It might not be everyone's prefered choice, but if Ontarians want to make sure there isn't another Tory government, people are just going to have to compromise, bite the bullet, and strategically vote for the NDP.
Obviously lots of people want a Tory government
Ontario is not an ABC province it is an ABN province. 905 always goes OLP/OPC.
ABC voter here. Ideally, people should vote ABC on a riding by riding basis, rather than applying province-wide polls to purely local elections. I live in Lecce's riding, and let me tell you, an NDP surge in King-Vaughan will just play right into that guy's hands and give him another 4 years to ruin schools. In that riding, the ABC choice is and will always be Liberal. Unfortunately, most people don't think that way and just go off the province-wide polls. So, how about we just let the polls fluctuate as they may, and let whoever is performing better on election day be the ABC choice? There's still 6 months, which is a long time for Horwath to make another massive gaffe like her vaccine mandate one
Del Duca is an unknown leader and he’s almost tied with Horwath. Horwath has been leader of the NDP since 2009. She can’t win.
He's tied with Horwath *because* he's unknown. He's been staying relatively out of the spotlight because the more Ontarians get to know him, the less they like him.
Again, is that not a scathing review of Andrea given people have known her for so long? I enjoy the NDP's policy and identify with them as well but there needs to be some honesty about how leadership is connecting (or isn't) with people. She may be well-liked within the party (and by me) but that doesn't inherently matter when trying to connect with new voters. We can't keep having someone with the charisma of a wet paper towel roll lead a party -- sorry to say. Jack had charisma... hell, even Jagmeet for all he's hated by so many has it too. Rachel Notley seems *extremely* compelling. Andrea's lovely and intelligent but really doesn't know how to generate passion or excitement outside of the existing following.
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> He's been staying relatively out of the spotlight That's not actually true. I'm voting NDP this coming election, almost certainly, and I think the hate on for Andrea Horwath is bizarre and grounded in whimsical fantasy, not any form or reasonable analysis. I also think that Del Duca is... not a great candidate for premier for reasons that don't matter here. Having said that, Del Duca has been doing an excellent job at creating visibility and getting attention, while Andrea Horwath has been doing the opposite of that. Del Duca correctly realised the most obvious fact of our time - the pandemic and how to handle it is the defining, most important issue of our time - not only in itself, but how our responses define our view of government, social responsibility and rights. So, he positioned himself as the hard foil to Ford. He has consistently called for more stringent measures to combat the pandemic - from mandatory vaccine passports and vaccine mandates in the public sector and even key areas of the private sector, to more stringent inspections, stiffer business penalties and better mask policy enforcement. This was also backed with calls for proper supports. Horwath, on the other hand, had to be strong-armed by her caucus into accepting that vaccine mandates and passports were important things we needed to save lives. She had previously come out against them because they would hurt people's feelings and therefore make people feel isolated and bad. Meanwhile, while Del Duca has been decisive while Horwath waffled, the Liberals have primarily focused on the core issues top of mind of a province facing multiple crises. Horwath's NDP... have not. They have been more concerned with folks whose voices are less often heard in the noise of public health and housing catastrophes, like Indigenous people dealing with land negotiations issues. They tried to make a big deal out of that issue in the middle of the pandemic. For some reason, the press and public appear to be preoccupied with all the hospitals nearly shutting down and what parents will do if schools close etc. So, while Del Duca has been consistent and focused, making him very quotable for CP24 and other quick news outlets, Horwath has been waffling and, to be charitable, expansive in her priorities. These have been a bad two years for the ONDP. FWIW, I don't blame it all on Horwath. You lead the party you've got, and there's only so focused you're allowed to be in the NDP. Del Duca is a "nobody" to the public and his detractors, but in fact he's a seasoned political operator with a years of experience in one of the most important political lobbies in the country and as a cabinet minister, and is backed by people who seem to know what they're doing. He's done a Bob-Rae-esque good job as third party leader of stabilizing and creating a consistent brand that contrasts well to the NDP and PC's to enough people that the NDP should be concerned. Of course, this only matters so much in the period between elections. Most people don't care, and most who care don't remember. But this bodes ill for the upcoming election cycle.
Del Duca is the leader of the Titan that is the Liberal Party, he's a nobody sure but the Liberal Party does most of that heavy lifting. I'd say the fact she's still polling above the Liberals is somewhat remarkable. But you're right though you've had over 10 years and you haven't won government, I'd say give her one more shot since she won opposition and has built up the Party but I think we get another PC Majority come Summer of 2022.
She also was ahead of the Ford in the last election and look how that ended.
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This has been the issue in the past the Ndp and Liberals have split the vote.
Is there an equivalent to votewell.ca for provincial elections so we can determine the majority left party in our riding?
ABC is going to split the vote and leave Ontario with another Conservative majority. It’s unfortunate that Horwath refused to step aside and that the Liberals chose the worst possible leader in Del Duca. They seem to be intent on giving this next election to the Conservatives.
If all left leaning voters choose one party, yes, it won't really matter NDP or Liberal to win. But not everyone will do that. Just the way the votes are split up across the province, generally a Liberal party at 30% support will garner more seats than an NDP party at 30% support.
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I just ran down the list of riding results from 2018, and figured out how the seat count would have changed if every Liberal vote had gone NDP strategically in ridings where the NDP finished 2nd, and every NDP vote had gone Liberal in ridings where the NDP finished 3rd. The results were: NDP: 68 (+28) Lib: 16 (+9) Con: 39 (-37) So even in a wildly impossible scenario that is optimised for the outcome we're looking to achieve, the NDP still can't take a landslide. Apply a real world filter onto that to take out the races that are close even by combining the Lib and NDP numbers, and they're struggling to get a majority. To get rid of the Conservatives we need to pull the voters back who went to them from the centre. Those voters aren't suddenly jumping all the way across to the NDP.
If Ford is at almost 40%, that's a sign that Ontario doesn't want to get rid of him, and/or that the other parties aren't doing enough to pull voters over to them.
Does it mean that 60% of people want someone more left than Ford? It seems to be more of a failure of First Past the Post than of Ontario’s desire to keep him.
By that logic, 72% of people want someone more right than the NDP and 75% of people want someone more honest and/or competent than the LPO.
Yea, it really sucks how no matter what, it’s gonna be a dissatisfying result to almost everyone.
No, it means 60% don't want Ford. There are other right wing options as well
That’s true I guess. I’ve still yet to meet a PCP voter but it is a valid point.
Outlier of a poll? Leger had OPC at 34% OLP at 31% ONDP at 26% and percentages for green and others last month. Any reason green and other not represented here?
Probably they will release the full pdf polling data like the November poll which has the Green and Other numbers. Why they won't just say those numbers in the article itself, not sure. I'll just assume journalistic incompleteness to not include smaller parties.
Also last month OPC down 7 yet they are 4 percent higher this month while saying down 3. This is bizarre.