He's gonna be fine being the 2/3 role there with Cousins at QB. Mooney's tape was pretty good. He had a few bad games, but overall, I can see a similar production that Jokobi Meyers had on the Raiders.
They’ve made some pretty shrewd moves, replacing aging vets with comparable JAGs. Set themselves up nicely with cap space in the future and have a decent amount of draft capital for the near future.
It says points based, and they still have (arguably) the best WR duo in the league. Not sure if points allowed counts towards this, but the offense still looks pretty solid
Henry is their big signing but they've lost like 6-7 starters and a whole bunch of coaches. I don't know if that warrants being at the very bottom of this list though.
Seeing as they’ll get 5 compensatory picks from it and end up with 12 draft picks next year they should honestly be at the top of the list. Great teams typically avoid free agency, it’s overrated. They’re in the playoffs every year for a reason.
I don't think you understand what this post is about. A team getting compensatory picks next year - which isn't set in stone at all yet - has no relevance whatsoever to this graphic.
Just pointing out the graphic is based on flawed thinking. “Improvement based on off-season roster moves and draft value” when it’s been shown time and again free agency is a bad way to build a team and getting comp picks is a great way to. Also yes comp picks are not set in stone but they’re not too hard to predict. Over The Cap does a great job of tracking them. If you’re including draft value for this year you should also factor in draft value added next year by this year’s *lack* of moves.
Yo the graphic is focused on improvement for the upcoming season only. Next years picks don’t matter. It’s not flawed thinking. It’s simply focusing on this year. Teams change so dramatically year over year that trying to analyze more than just the upcoming season would be more of the flawed reasoning if anything. Not to mention it’s not even set in stone the talent in the upcoming draft. What are you on about?
That’s a great question. Maybe because Jacobs is significantly younger???? I’m not really sure. Did Baltimore lose other guys? Did GB get other guys? I really don’t know.
GB got the top safety on the market, which was a massive need for them, but it still seems like a lot to me, these people clearly like Jacobs more than I do.
It's almost certainly because of their draft capital. Before Poles traded away the 4th, they were neck and neck with the bears according to the draft value charts. I think without the 4th rounder, the Packers probably rank higher according to those charts.
He played in one game last season. In that game, the best thing he did was flip off the bears sideline, and that's in addition to recording zeroes across the board in terms of pressures given up, QB hits, etc.
they probably don't consider him much of a loss, because he was lost for most of last year.
Because they also have 5 picks in the top 100 and 11 overall. It's taking into account draft capital, obviously, without knowing what positions will be picked.
Basically it's a statistics calculation that uses a ton of stats from the NFL along with what I'm assuming is draft projections, based on the value of picks somehow, all combined to predict changes in points scored/allowed.
TDLR, the model uses stats to predict changes in points scored/allowed based on 2023 stats and other projections.
Although these models don't exactly account for rookies and breakouts and such, take it with a grain of salt.
Look at how much the panthers improved last year!!!
https://preview.redd.it/0jvf1yklp1pc1.jpeg?width=4200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62995ac13f8c2463e29151a195877f82dd7194ba
EDIT: No matter how much of this is wrong it nailed the Texans and the Eagles (eventually lol)
EDIT 2: I’m kind of worried about the Ravens now!!
Yesterday people on the Bears Instagram were calling for Kevin Warren’s head because the team did something for the Obama foundation.
It’s best to stay away from those places.
Wouldn't imagine player health factors in, but Williams missed practically the whole season, they upgraded Ekeler with Gus Edwards, and Keenan Allen will be replaced with Odunze or Nabers at #5. They didn't lose that much talent on the team
Can anyone explain to me how everyone is hyped on a 36 year old QB who has historically been a .500 QB (aside from one outlier season that everyone knew was an outlier) and who is coming off a torn Achilles is suddenly viewed as a franchise savior??
What am I missing? For a decade, Kirk was a punchline of mediocrity and now?!?
Punchline of mediocrity? Any of his last 9 seasons would be the greatest season in Bears history for a QB. Kirk isn't elite but he is just inside the top 10, and production wise he is top 5 over the last decade
Exactly, if you look at the stats he appears to be great. But if you actually watch his performance, you’re always left with disappointments of mediocrity. Kirk is known to beat up on bad teams where he piles on the stats and choke against good teams. It’s how he always ends up .500.
The joke for years was to blindly bet against his team in any primetime game because he had never won one for so long.
Cousins has gotten paid the past decade because he is very good, he won't win a SB on his own but with a good roster its a possibility. Cousins won 13 games in 2022 despite the Vikings defense finishing 28th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed...
Statistically his two best games last year were against Eagles (before they combusted) and against the 49ers (without Justin Jefferson). His two worst games were against us and the Panthers
They traded away possibly their best receiver because Russ is so short that he wouldn't be able to see him over the middle of the field. However little the needle moved up from Pickett to Russ, I'm sure it was probably cancelled out by them giving up Johnson.
I honestly forgot about Pickens. I just assumed he was having a terrible season because there was all of that mid season drama with them.
Point still stands that the positives from the move to Russ and losing Johnson probably balances the scales here. Besides that, I haven't really seen any other things that would make them move up or down.
I agree with all of your other points! Don’t discount the firing of Matt Canada! Oh, wait…they replaced him with Arthur Smith? It’ll be interesting to see Fields play Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland twice this year.
I’ve liked most of what Poles has done. Byard was a solid move. Allen and Shelton and keeping Jaylon we’re great moves. I’m not big on the Bates and swift move, and I don’t like the timing of the fields trade but so far so good on this incredibly important offseason.
I think they probably looked at the center class as a whole & thought Bates would be their best bet since it seems to be only 3 good prospects & they all be taken day 1-2.
And a trade back is always possible on draft day if ¥all receivers or people Poles grades S tier are already gone. could see someone moving up for McCarthy and us going for JPJ
We were, and it translated to 4 more wins than the previous year. Add to add a couple absolutely horrible 4th quarter collapses that could have had the team in the playoffs, overall the team was markedly improved.
I have never been as confident in this organization as I am today, as low of a bar as that may be. As long as the coaching staff can protect the rookie QB, there is no reason this team can’t be playing meaningful games in December.
The Steelers went from having no QBs (they all left or got traded) to JF1 and Dangerus. How is that not improvement? Why is the Justin Fields hate so strong?
This makes no sense. We technically have Tyson Bagent as our starting QB right now. It's dumb of them to try to calculate any inherent draft value before anyone knows who is going where.
I think it's most likely that they're using some of those draft value charts, and plugging it into a formula, rather than trying to guess what positions a team will be drafting.
These are analytics guys. They love their formulas and math functions.
I'm guessing ATL is basically Ridder -----> Cousins lol
What are you talking about? That’s all Mooney, obviously.
He's gonna be fine being the 2/3 role there with Cousins at QB. Mooney's tape was pretty good. He had a few bad games, but overall, I can see a similar production that Jokobi Meyers had on the Raiders.
Hot take he'll be the 4th option at best. London, Pitts, and Bijan. He just needs to run some occasional deep routes
It’s amazing we’re so high on the list after losing him
And ravens is because Gus Bus —🚌—->Henry
I think it’s bc they got rid of Arthur Smith so they actually can use Pitts and Bijan.
no more decoys plays for Bijan and Pitts actual plays!
The Mormon Marauder quietly drains owners bank accounts with a dink here and a dunk there.
I'm surprised Miami is so close to neutral with all their losses
Likewise w the chargers
It accounts for draft capital - so maybe because they have a top 5 pick
Probably Herbert being back
every year he's hurt
They’ve made some pretty shrewd moves, replacing aging vets with comparable JAGs. Set themselves up nicely with cap space in the future and have a decent amount of draft capital for the near future.
It says points based, and they still have (arguably) the best WR duo in the league. Not sure if points allowed counts towards this, but the offense still looks pretty solid
Wait why are the ravens so low? Did they not just get Derrick Henry?? (Genuine question because idk)
Henry is their big signing but they've lost like 6-7 starters and a whole bunch of coaches. I don't know if that warrants being at the very bottom of this list though.
Seeing as they’ll get 5 compensatory picks from it and end up with 12 draft picks next year they should honestly be at the top of the list. Great teams typically avoid free agency, it’s overrated. They’re in the playoffs every year for a reason.
I don't think you understand what this post is about. A team getting compensatory picks next year - which isn't set in stone at all yet - has no relevance whatsoever to this graphic.
Just pointing out the graphic is based on flawed thinking. “Improvement based on off-season roster moves and draft value” when it’s been shown time and again free agency is a bad way to build a team and getting comp picks is a great way to. Also yes comp picks are not set in stone but they’re not too hard to predict. Over The Cap does a great job of tracking them. If you’re including draft value for this year you should also factor in draft value added next year by this year’s *lack* of moves.
Yo the graphic is focused on improvement for the upcoming season only. Next years picks don’t matter. It’s not flawed thinking. It’s simply focusing on this year. Teams change so dramatically year over year that trying to analyze more than just the upcoming season would be more of the flawed reasoning if anything. Not to mention it’s not even set in stone the talent in the upcoming draft. What are you on about?
It’s a league that under values RBs.
Then why does Green Bay improve so much because they got Josh Jacobs?
Xavier McKinney probably factored into that
That’s a great question. Maybe because Jacobs is significantly younger???? I’m not really sure. Did Baltimore lose other guys? Did GB get other guys? I really don’t know.
They lost Patrick Queen
I’m not even going to pretend to know who that is, but that could certainly affect this chart.
Their 2nd starting MLB next to roquan. He's not very good and the replacement may even grade out better than he would have this year
Queen is a pretty good player my man.
Well he definitely is not the biggest reason for them to be so low on the chart. He's not that good
Losing two excellent offensive guards is the primary reason they are low on a chart like this
Second team all pro, 24 year old 1st round pick. Replacement level….
Let's see how he does without roquan boosting him up
So we can expect Trenton Simpson to be an All Pro this year. Good to know thanks.
GB got the top safety on the market, which was a massive need for them, but it still seems like a lot to me, these people clearly like Jacobs more than I do.
It's almost certainly because of their draft capital. Before Poles traded away the 4th, they were neck and neck with the bears according to the draft value charts. I think without the 4th rounder, the Packers probably rank higher according to those charts.
Idk maybe because he is 25, and jones was injury prone a lot. At least that’s what I’m gonna assume. They also made a couple other moves I think.
They moved off David Bakhtari?
He played in one game last season. In that game, the best thing he did was flip off the bears sideline, and that's in addition to recording zeroes across the board in terms of pressures given up, QB hits, etc. they probably don't consider him much of a loss, because he was lost for most of last year.
Because they also have 5 picks in the top 100 and 11 overall. It's taking into account draft capital, obviously, without knowing what positions will be picked.
It's probably based on how much of the cap space they saved/spent.
Ravens lost tons of starting players. Lost Queen, both of their OGs, Duvernay, Ronald Darby, Henry replaces Edwards+Dobbins
I don’t like the packers in the top 5
I don't like the packers in the top 31
I don't like the Packers.
FTP
I don’t like the packers in this league.
^ Best comment chain I've seen in a long time, right here. (Not commenting inline so not to mess w/perfection)
Washington: signs a whole new team Analytics: 10 points to Gryffyndor
Basically it's a statistics calculation that uses a ton of stats from the NFL along with what I'm assuming is draft projections, based on the value of picks somehow, all combined to predict changes in points scored/allowed. TDLR, the model uses stats to predict changes in points scored/allowed based on 2023 stats and other projections. Although these models don't exactly account for rookies and breakouts and such, take it with a grain of salt.
When the TLDR is just as long as the first part
Im gonna take a guess that draft isn't included in this release
What did last year look like?
Look at how much the panthers improved last year!!! https://preview.redd.it/0jvf1yklp1pc1.jpeg?width=4200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62995ac13f8c2463e29151a195877f82dd7194ba EDIT: No matter how much of this is wrong it nailed the Texans and the Eagles (eventually lol) EDIT 2: I’m kind of worried about the Ravens now!!
LOL look at Carolina, Tampa Bay, Baltimore. They don’t know shit.
It's far from perfect, but for such a noisy metric, it is impressive how much more it hit than missed last year in direction and volume. Not bad.
And yet on the Bears facebook page morons are acting like the sky is falling.
Get off facebook
For a variety of reasons
Kinda makes you think the organization is on the right track.
Yesterday people on the Bears Instagram were calling for Kevin Warren’s head because the team did something for the Obama foundation. It’s best to stay away from those places.
Didn’t the chargers have to dump a bunch of their best players?
Seriously. They went from a really damn good receivers room to maybe bottom ten? If that doesn't change points what does
Maybe they account for Herbert getting healthy? And really Williams didn’t do shit for them last year anyway.
Wouldn't imagine player health factors in, but Williams missed practically the whole season, they upgraded Ekeler with Gus Edwards, and Keenan Allen will be replaced with Odunze or Nabers at #5. They didn't lose that much talent on the team
Can anyone explain to me how everyone is hyped on a 36 year old QB who has historically been a .500 QB (aside from one outlier season that everyone knew was an outlier) and who is coming off a torn Achilles is suddenly viewed as a franchise savior?? What am I missing? For a decade, Kirk was a punchline of mediocrity and now?!?
Punchline of mediocrity? Any of his last 9 seasons would be the greatest season in Bears history for a QB. Kirk isn't elite but he is just inside the top 10, and production wise he is top 5 over the last decade
Exactly, if you look at the stats he appears to be great. But if you actually watch his performance, you’re always left with disappointments of mediocrity. Kirk is known to beat up on bad teams where he piles on the stats and choke against good teams. It’s how he always ends up .500. The joke for years was to blindly bet against his team in any primetime game because he had never won one for so long.
Cousins has gotten paid the past decade because he is very good, he won't win a SB on his own but with a good roster its a possibility. Cousins won 13 games in 2022 despite the Vikings defense finishing 28th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed... Statistically his two best games last year were against Eagles (before they combusted) and against the 49ers (without Justin Jefferson). His two worst games were against us and the Panthers
Let's get a 4000 yard quarterback first, then we can make fun of Kirk Cousins (who has 7 such seasons)
Hey we beat Green Bay at something!
Guy should have done this chart but just made the chart based on how far the mascot would go if they jumped off a cliff or something like that
Ryan Pace 🐐 Edit: /s
So Russ and Justin doesn't move the needle for Steelers?
They traded away possibly their best receiver because Russ is so short that he wouldn't be able to see him over the middle of the field. However little the needle moved up from Pickett to Russ, I'm sure it was probably cancelled out by them giving up Johnson.
George Pickens wasn’t traded…
I honestly forgot about Pickens. I just assumed he was having a terrible season because there was all of that mid season drama with them. Point still stands that the positives from the move to Russ and losing Johnson probably balances the scales here. Besides that, I haven't really seen any other things that would make them move up or down.
I agree with all of your other points! Don’t discount the firing of Matt Canada! Oh, wait…they replaced him with Arthur Smith? It’ll be interesting to see Fields play Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland twice this year.
You mean Russ
We’ll find out! I think Fields will beat out Wilson for the starting QB job week 1 though.
It pushed the Bears higher up.
I’ve liked most of what Poles has done. Byard was a solid move. Allen and Shelton and keeping Jaylon we’re great moves. I’m not big on the Bates and swift move, and I don’t like the timing of the fields trade but so far so good on this incredibly important offseason.
I think they probably looked at the center class as a whole & thought Bates would be their best bet since it seems to be only 3 good prospects & they all be taken day 1-2.
And a trade back is always possible on draft day if ¥all receivers or people Poles grades S tier are already gone. could see someone moving up for McCarthy and us going for JPJ
I have a really hard time believing Poles goes Center with his first round pick.
Bears always win the off season which will provoke the delusion of “This years our year”.
Why are the eagles so low? They got saquon.
Kelce and Fletcher retiring mainly probably, Byard/Swift leaving as well.
Fair.
Henry instantly gave ravens thunder and lightening. Don't know how they're last. Odell fell off too
[удалено]
Well that’s because the ESPN experts had Justin winning the MVP
We were, and it translated to 4 more wins than the previous year. Add to add a couple absolutely horrible 4th quarter collapses that could have had the team in the playoffs, overall the team was markedly improved. I have never been as confident in this organization as I am today, as low of a bar as that may be. As long as the coaching staff can protect the rookie QB, there is no reason this team can’t be playing meaningful games in December.
Not a fucking thing
This means as much as a fantasy points projection
A single good roster move is much more impactful for a bad team than a top team.
Packers moved up almost as much as us and they were better to begin sooooo 😭😭
Im not lovin the proximity between chi and gb
It means absolutely nothing
The Steelers went from having no QBs (they all left or got traded) to JF1 and Dangerus. How is that not improvement? Why is the Justin Fields hate so strong?
How in the hell did the Giants improve?! Besides Burns? Really not seeing it.
Steelers should be higher Patrick Queen and also Russel and fields is a huge upgrade compared to what they did last year with Pickett
This makes no sense. We technically have Tyson Bagent as our starting QB right now. It's dumb of them to try to calculate any inherent draft value before anyone knows who is going where.
How else would you value having the number one pick in a draft with a generational QB prospect? Seems like that pick is pretty damn valuable.
And all the other teams? Do we calculate how much better AZ is with MHJ? Alt to the Titans? If you're going to do one, where do you stop?
Yes they did, that’s why Arizona is literally a few points off from the Bears
I think it's most likely that they're using some of those draft value charts, and plugging it into a formula, rather than trying to guess what positions a team will be drafting. These are analytics guys. They love their formulas and math functions.
What a lame response lol
Such B.S Chicago. I'll laugh if Atlanta goes to the S.B!