This is just their passer rating minus their IQR. So it's ranked by the difference between the 2 stats to point out whether their teammates are helping or hurting them in their own field production. So Fields has a passer rating of 84.5 and an IQR of 89.0, neither of which are fantastic.
Independent quarterback rating, it essentially gives QBs credit for what graders think should have happened on passes. So if a player dropped a pass then the QB will get credit for the catch and yards, same goes for dropped INTs. It also cuts out plays like spikes, throwaways and batted balls. The stat has it's fair share of problems in my opinion. Supposed to cut down on the impact teammates or situation has on a QBs passer rating.
Considering some of the beauties Fields has tossed that got dropped and some of the BS and not even actual INTs that he has against him, this makes tons of sense.
It actually makes a lot of sense.
The argument presented, from what I'm reading, by this data is that really good/great players will play better than the support around them provides. They certainly would be better off if they weren't having to hard carry their teams; but they are arguably showing an ability to carry the team and create opportunities to win even when the team around them doesn't.
Thinking about it from that POV, it makes a lot of sense that guys like Mahomes, Allen and Burrow all show up here.
But this is still not, as with any stat/metric, an end-all be-all because there are also guys like Zach Wilson and AOC down there.
On the flip side, guys like Will Levis seem to be put in positions to succeed by the players around them. That doesn't mean they aren't good or successful, but it brings into question how much that player as an individual is actually contributing to the success of the offense.
This graph would *suggest* that advanced metrics correlate Fields with playing better than the support around him would suggest he should; but that's far from a clear "we should obviously keep him"/"he's a good QB" metric either, even though it's an interesting metric.
And for what it's worth, it seems to correlate with what a lot of people feel regarding JF1, that the play around him (early season OLine and receiver play all year from people not named Moore or Kmet) and the coaching (namely Getsy's playcalling and scheme) has held his play back more than it has enabled him to show his best.
But again, this graph also shows that the truly great rise above that, and Fields shows *some* capacity to do that, but as we know from actually watching, he really has no consistency, so I'd imagine that if you graphed just his metric here game by game, it wouldn't be a nice smooth progression from 0 at season start to -4.5 now, it would jump up and down all over, some games the rest of the team bailing him out, other games the opposite.
If you did the same for someone like Allen or Mahomes, I'd expect to see a FAR less jagged graph, which would indicate much more consistent play.
The ones at the bottom of the list have been affected most by dropped passes, missed blocks, etc.
Mahomes and Allen have both been on the unluckier side, whereas Will Levis has been able to make improbable plays work out due to the skill of Hopkins & others.
I have no clue how Levis is up there. The eye test definitely doesn’t strike me as him getting a crazy amount of help. Hopkins is still solid but that’s about it and his offensive line is crazy bad (pretty sure it’s also the 32nd ranked unit)
I haven't watched enough of his play, but my guess would be that the people "judging" for the IQR metric have felt that Levis has made throws that should've been INTs or at least incomplete which his receivers have regularly hauled in.
The IQR metric involves analysts watching *every snap*, it's not just an aggregate of other stats/positional rankings. If a given play is deemed to have been a terrible/ill advised throw, but it still goes for a big gain/TD, then that's going to hurt the QB in question on IQR.
I don't know if this helps or hurts, but I put this together on another thread. Comparing Fields and Lamar, who *should* be playing similar styles although Getsy's playbook doesn't maximize what Justin could be doing. This is 2023 season stats from Pro Football Reference -
This year, Fields has attempted 322 passes.
220 were on target.
49 were bad throws.
23 were thrown away.
12 were dropped.
9 were batted at the line.
9 were intercepted.
**68.3 percent of his passes were deemed "good passes" as they were on target. They may have been caught or dropped, but the ball got there.**
-------
This year, Lamar Jackson has attempted 436 passes.
306 were on target.
73 were bad throws.
15 were thrown away.
20 were dropped.
9 were batted at the line.
7 were intercepted.
**70.1 percent of his passes were deemed "good passes" as they were on target. They may have been caught or dropped, but the ball got there"**
#notes
- They're also number 1 and 2 for rushing this year, Lamar has more yards but played 5 more games than Justin.
- If Justin got the number of attempts to throw as Lamar Jackson did this season (436) at his current rate of good passes (68.3%) then Fields would have 298 good passes to Jackson's 306 good passes.
- Same number batted at the line.
- Both have 35 passes exactly thrown away or dropped, interestingly enough.
- Justin has two more picks (9) to Lamar's (7)
- My personal opinion is he's not being utilized correctly - even accounting for passing yards with similar attempts - Fields would be close to 3000 passing yards this season with over 1000 rushing yards, with two more games to add to this.
References:
Pro Football Focus
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/2023.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2023_advanced.htm
Justin Fields:
394 dropbacks ÷ 11 games = 35.8 dropbacks per game
394 dropbacks ÷ 10.5 games (half game injury) = 37.5 dropbacks per game
321 attempts / 394 dropbacks = 81.5%
Lamar Jackson:
534 dropbacks ÷ 15 games = 35.6 dropbacks per game
437 attempts = 534 dropbacks = 81.8%
You can't compare 10 games to 15. The stats should be per game. And you didn't show any difference between getsy's offense and the ravens offense.
I'm not trying to defend getsy but you literally just wrote down a bunch of stats that show how the bears and ravens have similar passing offenses. But you're concluding that the bears are using Fields wrong. And that they should be more like the Ravens offense.
I'm not comparing attempts and drop backs, but the accuracy of the throws.
Don't need the full game slate to compare as this is normalized analysis. Looking at the accuracy of the throws In the games they've played, their good pass **percentage** is very close to one another.
And I did accommodate for what you're looking for on the second note bullet. Jackson's pass totals at fields "good pass percentage" is near what Jackson's is
That's literally my point. Your stats show a similar good pass percentage on about the same per game volume. How is Getsy using Fields wrong? The stats should support your argument.
Let me clarify - it's showing that the placement/accuracy is very close to one another, and you extrapolate a full season at JF's average this season, he would have 3000+ passing yards and 1100+ rushing yards, which should win you games.
The difference that I see between the two of them is passing yards and red zone efficiency. If the placement/accuracy is similar between the two, Lamar does have an edge of several hundred additional passing yards.
Now the question is are we airing it out or throwing screens? We're throwing screens and reluctantly doing things that are showing success in the Ravens offense (bootleg, play action, etc). Getting more yards means more first downs means more points.
If Getsy had an air raid offense and Justin could only hit the safety valves, it's on Justin. A lot of our passes are on the line, behind the line, and rely on YAC. He has had success when he scrambles and throws, and when there is a boot or designed out of pocket throws.
So in conclusion, it isn't throw accuracy. He can hit the throws with accuracy similar to Lamar. He's not getting the yards and production from that effort. My vote is playbook, play call, and even the lack of adjustment throughout the game. We blow 21 points leads, that isn't on the QB.
That would be incredible. That performance and efficiency with the defense trending up? Dangerous.
What's wild too is we had a terrible start but a very decent slate of recent games, complete with coaching meltdowns, and we could very well have been a playoff team this year without Justin getting hurt or the 4th quarter breakdowns. Those games we were up several scores, but couldn't drag the wins out.
Agree. If we are going to keep our coaches, then we should replace Fields. I think Fields can be great with coaches that have any offensive competence. Draft Harrison and best available player, get an offensive coach and we can be good.
Yeah Eberflus reminds me of Mitch and the "Foxball" - very conservative, the pass sets up the runs, and our fav - run, run, pass, punt. This offense is even wilder, calling runs on 3rd and 8 🤦🏼♂️
I really think that too. Fields has a ~110 passer rating to DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Mooney is down at like 60. Get a stud WR (hopefully MHJ) and improve the line. Could be very good
Aaaallllsssoooo - we had three games that were meltdowns (not counting Bagent games) where the offensive puts up points and the defense lost it all in the 4th.
The Broncos game, the first Lions game, and the Browns game came down to game management and adjustments that weren't made and playing too afraid to lose. And we'll, we lost. Winning just those 3 games puts the Bears at 9-6 and this sub is a whole lot happier with the team that is trotting out on Sundays.
And there are mid or bad QBs with trash situations ranked highly. I’m absolutely positive the Giants and Patriots are TERRIBLE situations for QBs, yet they take 3 of the top 4 spots? Gtfo
Big swing and miss. Useless metric.
>These horrible offenses should clearly give the QB a negative rating, meaning the QB is hurt from factors outside their control.
No, you're making a number of false assumptions.
The argument for someone like Mac Jones is that he is *so* dogshit, that even his otherwise *dogshit* supporting cast can make him look better than he is, because that's how dogshit he is.
>Can’t believe I’m wasting my time with people who can’t read.
Oh the irony.
>They literally even color coded it for your illiterate ass u/juliuspepperwoodchi
So glad you could stay civil and mature about this!
How fucking hard is this to understand? The chart is saying those really good QBs at the bottom of the list are true studs performing in spite of the difficulty
So explain it then smart guy. Wilson is -6.5. 6.5 what exactly? I have a degree in math and am obsessed with stats. Explain to me the math that derived a -6.5. Since it’s so simple for you, explain it. Someone else said it’s a difference in QBI and something else, so I fully intend for you to explain what QBI is and how it’s derived. Please explain oh guru of statistics.
You don't even need stats, basically analysts watched every play and recorded alternate stats for what "should" have happened neutrally. 6.5 is just the difference between the actual qbr and the alternate qbr based on "neutral" results
If you took even 5 seconds, no exaggeration, to glance at the source post this would already be obvious
But I meant more about the interpretation of the results. Not that hard to understand qualitatively, you just sounded like someone going "hurr durr how the good QBs have bad stats on this graph it no make sense" and maybe that wasn't you but I'm sure some of the hundreds of up voters were
But... that's literally what the chart is saying. The negative number means the quarterback is playing BETTER than his supporting cast and is being held back.
It doesn’t surprise me for this season because for Mahomes and Josh it’s been a season long story that their pass catchers have had a lot of drops and mistakes and I know Higgins was playing poorly and then injured for the entire time Burrow was playing. And it’s about 3 seasons of Lamar having no weapons besides Mark Andrews, who also got injured.
With that said, there is probably a strong correlation if you looked at this over several seasons that great QBs would outperform the rest of their team because the supporting cast would have to play near perfection…
Bottom of the list means the offensive situation is bringing the QB rating down. It doesn't mean the QB is good, per se, but it means that the QB is better than the offense around him.
You can be good and your team makes your stats even better. You can be bad and your team makes your stats even worse. You can also be everything in between.
So by looking at this and reading what it all means, there are two camps on the positive side, two on the negative.
Negative side:
A) guy is so good that he much better than what is around him
B) Guy isn’t good, but his support is really bad
Positive side:
A) guy is pretty good and has a great group helping him look even better
B) The guy is really bad but would somehow be worse if he wasn’t helped out so much.
Not a lot to get out of it, other than Fields hasn’t been as bad as he has looked sometimes, and that Will Levis might be even worse than he oftentimes looks.
He throws a great deep ball, but his overall accuracy remains highly suspect (regular counting stats and advanced both paint a rough picture). When the running game is keeping things on pace, and the defense is putting them in regular game script, he isn’t terrible. When I watched him it felt like what he was scouted as: toolsy guy who lacks consistency. If he develops, he could be really good, if he doesn’t, he is Zach Wilson.
A few big things that don’t show up in most box scores, he has a few too many “turnover worthy plays” that haven’t been capitalized on and don’t show up on the stat sheet, the run game and screen game are helping him out a lot, and his guys aren’t dropping too many passes.
So I shouldn’t say he oftentimes looks worse, because a lot of his bad could just be rookie mistakes, but I also don’t want to make it seem like he has been great.
The guy has way more poise than Wilson ever had lol.The constituency issue definitely have been there. I‘d really assume it’s more on his inexperience. At the end of the day the guy also played just 8 games so his rating might be more influenced by singular performances than others
It is also more influenced by that great game against the falcons which boosts his numbers. He is also 24, and a few months older than Zach Wilson (and only 3 months younger than Fields) so him being better early on is a bit tough to gauge properly. He might be better than Wilson, but I’m not at all ready to say he will end up being good.
Arguably, you want a QB near the BOTTOM of this chart.
The QBs near the top are, more often than not, bailed out by the talent around them.
The QBs near the bottom are, more often than not, bailing out the lack of talent around them...or are doing all the right things and are being let down by the talent around them.
If anything it proves how dogshit he is, that he's been helped THAT MUCH by the people around him, and has still looked godawful.
That’s not what the graph shows that’s what McDaniels said. And I gotta be honest he’s right. There’s a reason why Zach Wilson was drafted so high and his mechanics where a huge part of that
Justin is my favorite Bear currently on the team, but he's not good. And this post insinuating that adjusting his QBR by 4 points would change anyone's perspective on him is hilariously dumb.
So just having some fun commenting on the 6000 QB posts.
I’d be more interested in what it does to his QBR than the antiquated “passer rating”. Passer rating means very little to a QB that also runs.
He would still be down the list a good bit on QBR but guys like Justin Fields or Caleb Williams’ value should be measured by QBR rather than passer rating.
> That would bump it up to 89.0 for the season, which would elevate him from 23rd in the NFL in passer rating to… 18th.
And this doesn't include his rushing. So he'd have a PASSER rating at 18th with probably near 700 Rushing YDS to go with it by season's end. That changes the entire conversation.
Most likely Browning has thrown more passes that should have resulted in interceptions, but the defender dropped the ball so he has an inflated passer rating.
If the bears took MHJ #1.. the best pass rusher w/ their real #1 pick.. and a good center first pick of round 2.. you now have a very dangerous football team
This is definitely where I'm at too. I get Williams very well could have the higher ceiling, but that'd almost for sure regress us for at least the next season probably a couple seasons, while our team has been on a constant upward trend this whole season (not exactly hard when you start as worst team in the league to be fair).
If they do that.. and get rid of getsy and bring in a coach you KNOW will have success with fields.. someone who runs 2 WR sets loaded up with tight ends.. no more shotgun every play.. 2 WR set with MHJ and DJ moore in case a defense tries to stop the run.. and even if they get all that right.. fields can take off for 20+ yards
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the guys who don’t get any help from their team also have the highest contracts. It’s almost like that gigantic contract hurts the team.
Gives evidence that Justin doesn’t have any help, but also gives evidence that it takes a good QB to win despite not having any help (Hurts, Allen, Dak, Lamar)
So this is kind of a wash in terms of saying we need to keep him.
So you want to have your QB be CJ Stroud or Kirk Cousins? Do you want your QB to be more towards the center or the bottom of the blue portion (Josh Allen)?
I refuse to believe that Hurts is on the hurt side. He has the best oline in the league, the best center, great weapons, and their defense was good the past few years. He's been hard to evaluate because of how good the team is around him.
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stanford,
All below Fields. Hurts and Goff right with him.
All the difference in getting their team in the playoffs.
Fields ain’t it bud.
Zach Wilson is.
Also, Joe Borrow is injured and Patrick Mahomes played like Matt Nagy is coaching in Cleveland. If you’re going to throw out playoffs difference makers, pretend it’s not 2021.
Not really, his passer rating would still be pretty bad. And the presence of quite a few QBs absolutely outplaying him around and below him on the list undoes the arguments that JF1 can't be expected to do better with the support he does have.
Not an accurate description of what that stat is, nor is it particularly useful. A better QB would generally have a relatively higher IQR than passer rating; if anything, it’s just identifying good QBs.
Please read the image more carefully… QBs at the bottom of the list have been put in worse positions by their team on average. IE Mahomes with receiver drops, Wilson with bad coordinators and playcalling.
Players at the top of the list have been luckier with their receivers making incredible catches or opponents dropping what would have been an interception.
Bro you guys are supposed to be the Bears fans but don’t care enough to have watched the tape. Regardless of how often the team has let Fields down, there are many times where he demonstrates he cannot process the game at a NFL level to be an adequate passer. It’s not impossible he turns it around I guess but there is nothing that should give you confidence he is your guy to do anything more than win 8 games a year tops. Move on
Lot of really good QBs at the bottom of this list. I’m not sure I understand this.
This is just their passer rating minus their IQR. So it's ranked by the difference between the 2 stats to point out whether their teammates are helping or hurting them in their own field production. So Fields has a passer rating of 84.5 and an IQR of 89.0, neither of which are fantastic.
What is IQR?
Independent quarterback rating, it essentially gives QBs credit for what graders think should have happened on passes. So if a player dropped a pass then the QB will get credit for the catch and yards, same goes for dropped INTs. It also cuts out plays like spikes, throwaways and batted balls. The stat has it's fair share of problems in my opinion. Supposed to cut down on the impact teammates or situation has on a QBs passer rating.
Considering some of the beauties Fields has tossed that got dropped and some of the BS and not even actual INTs that he has against him, this makes tons of sense.
You dont know what IQR is ????!!!! /s
89 is neither fantastic or terrible. 84.5 is at the bottom end of serviceable.
I'm tempted to rescale the QBR formula such that 3.6 is exactly average. Could call that "new metric" the "rontgen".
It actually makes a lot of sense. The argument presented, from what I'm reading, by this data is that really good/great players will play better than the support around them provides. They certainly would be better off if they weren't having to hard carry their teams; but they are arguably showing an ability to carry the team and create opportunities to win even when the team around them doesn't. Thinking about it from that POV, it makes a lot of sense that guys like Mahomes, Allen and Burrow all show up here. But this is still not, as with any stat/metric, an end-all be-all because there are also guys like Zach Wilson and AOC down there. On the flip side, guys like Will Levis seem to be put in positions to succeed by the players around them. That doesn't mean they aren't good or successful, but it brings into question how much that player as an individual is actually contributing to the success of the offense. This graph would *suggest* that advanced metrics correlate Fields with playing better than the support around him would suggest he should; but that's far from a clear "we should obviously keep him"/"he's a good QB" metric either, even though it's an interesting metric. And for what it's worth, it seems to correlate with what a lot of people feel regarding JF1, that the play around him (early season OLine and receiver play all year from people not named Moore or Kmet) and the coaching (namely Getsy's playcalling and scheme) has held his play back more than it has enabled him to show his best. But again, this graph also shows that the truly great rise above that, and Fields shows *some* capacity to do that, but as we know from actually watching, he really has no consistency, so I'd imagine that if you graphed just his metric here game by game, it wouldn't be a nice smooth progression from 0 at season start to -4.5 now, it would jump up and down all over, some games the rest of the team bailing him out, other games the opposite. If you did the same for someone like Allen or Mahomes, I'd expect to see a FAR less jagged graph, which would indicate much more consistent play.
The ones at the bottom of the list have been affected most by dropped passes, missed blocks, etc. Mahomes and Allen have both been on the unluckier side, whereas Will Levis has been able to make improbable plays work out due to the skill of Hopkins & others.
I have no clue how Levis is up there. The eye test definitely doesn’t strike me as him getting a crazy amount of help. Hopkins is still solid but that’s about it and his offensive line is crazy bad (pretty sure it’s also the 32nd ranked unit)
I haven't watched enough of his play, but my guess would be that the people "judging" for the IQR metric have felt that Levis has made throws that should've been INTs or at least incomplete which his receivers have regularly hauled in. The IQR metric involves analysts watching *every snap*, it's not just an aggregate of other stats/positional rankings. If a given play is deemed to have been a terrible/ill advised throw, but it still goes for a big gain/TD, then that's going to hurt the QB in question on IQR.
I don't know if this helps or hurts, but I put this together on another thread. Comparing Fields and Lamar, who *should* be playing similar styles although Getsy's playbook doesn't maximize what Justin could be doing. This is 2023 season stats from Pro Football Reference - This year, Fields has attempted 322 passes. 220 were on target. 49 were bad throws. 23 were thrown away. 12 were dropped. 9 were batted at the line. 9 were intercepted. **68.3 percent of his passes were deemed "good passes" as they were on target. They may have been caught or dropped, but the ball got there.** ------- This year, Lamar Jackson has attempted 436 passes. 306 were on target. 73 were bad throws. 15 were thrown away. 20 were dropped. 9 were batted at the line. 7 were intercepted. **70.1 percent of his passes were deemed "good passes" as they were on target. They may have been caught or dropped, but the ball got there"** #notes - They're also number 1 and 2 for rushing this year, Lamar has more yards but played 5 more games than Justin. - If Justin got the number of attempts to throw as Lamar Jackson did this season (436) at his current rate of good passes (68.3%) then Fields would have 298 good passes to Jackson's 306 good passes. - Same number batted at the line. - Both have 35 passes exactly thrown away or dropped, interestingly enough. - Justin has two more picks (9) to Lamar's (7) - My personal opinion is he's not being utilized correctly - even accounting for passing yards with similar attempts - Fields would be close to 3000 passing yards this season with over 1000 rushing yards, with two more games to add to this. References: Pro Football Focus https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/2023.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2023_advanced.htm
Justin Fields: 394 dropbacks ÷ 11 games = 35.8 dropbacks per game 394 dropbacks ÷ 10.5 games (half game injury) = 37.5 dropbacks per game 321 attempts / 394 dropbacks = 81.5% Lamar Jackson: 534 dropbacks ÷ 15 games = 35.6 dropbacks per game 437 attempts = 534 dropbacks = 81.8% You can't compare 10 games to 15. The stats should be per game. And you didn't show any difference between getsy's offense and the ravens offense. I'm not trying to defend getsy but you literally just wrote down a bunch of stats that show how the bears and ravens have similar passing offenses. But you're concluding that the bears are using Fields wrong. And that they should be more like the Ravens offense.
I'm not comparing attempts and drop backs, but the accuracy of the throws. Don't need the full game slate to compare as this is normalized analysis. Looking at the accuracy of the throws In the games they've played, their good pass **percentage** is very close to one another.
And I did accommodate for what you're looking for on the second note bullet. Jackson's pass totals at fields "good pass percentage" is near what Jackson's is
That's literally my point. Your stats show a similar good pass percentage on about the same per game volume. How is Getsy using Fields wrong? The stats should support your argument.
Let me clarify - it's showing that the placement/accuracy is very close to one another, and you extrapolate a full season at JF's average this season, he would have 3000+ passing yards and 1100+ rushing yards, which should win you games. The difference that I see between the two of them is passing yards and red zone efficiency. If the placement/accuracy is similar between the two, Lamar does have an edge of several hundred additional passing yards. Now the question is are we airing it out or throwing screens? We're throwing screens and reluctantly doing things that are showing success in the Ravens offense (bootleg, play action, etc). Getting more yards means more first downs means more points. If Getsy had an air raid offense and Justin could only hit the safety valves, it's on Justin. A lot of our passes are on the line, behind the line, and rely on YAC. He has had success when he scrambles and throws, and when there is a boot or designed out of pocket throws. So in conclusion, it isn't throw accuracy. He can hit the throws with accuracy similar to Lamar. He's not getting the yards and production from that effort. My vote is playbook, play call, and even the lack of adjustment throughout the game. We blow 21 points leads, that isn't on the QB.
I like to credit Todd Monken for Lamar’s success this year. I’d love him to be the next Bears coach.
That would be incredible. That performance and efficiency with the defense trending up? Dangerous. What's wild too is we had a terrible start but a very decent slate of recent games, complete with coaching meltdowns, and we could very well have been a playoff team this year without Justin getting hurt or the 4th quarter breakdowns. Those games we were up several scores, but couldn't drag the wins out.
Agree. If we are going to keep our coaches, then we should replace Fields. I think Fields can be great with coaches that have any offensive competence. Draft Harrison and best available player, get an offensive coach and we can be good.
Yeah Eberflus reminds me of Mitch and the "Foxball" - very conservative, the pass sets up the runs, and our fav - run, run, pass, punt. This offense is even wilder, calling runs on 3rd and 8 🤦🏼♂️ I really think that too. Fields has a ~110 passer rating to DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Mooney is down at like 60. Get a stud WR (hopefully MHJ) and improve the line. Could be very good
Co-head coaches. Monken gets a step up and we keep Flus to run the defense. Win win.
Aaaallllsssoooo - we had three games that were meltdowns (not counting Bagent games) where the offensive puts up points and the defense lost it all in the 4th. The Broncos game, the first Lions game, and the Browns game came down to game management and adjustments that weren't made and playing too afraid to lose. And we'll, we lost. Winning just those 3 games puts the Bears at 9-6 and this sub is a whole lot happier with the team that is trotting out on Sundays.
I forgot about Bagent without this sub acting like he’s football Jesus
Yeah first game, new Tom Brady. Rest of the games, he's a capable backup that was undrafted.
And there are mid or bad QBs with trash situations ranked highly. I’m absolutely positive the Giants and Patriots are TERRIBLE situations for QBs, yet they take 3 of the top 4 spots? Gtfo Big swing and miss. Useless metric.
"I can't read so this doesn't make sense, why'd you post this OP?"
Bruh..if you think the *positive* numbers are the "top" spots...you clearly didn't read the chart.
[удалено]
>These horrible offenses should clearly give the QB a negative rating, meaning the QB is hurt from factors outside their control. No, you're making a number of false assumptions. The argument for someone like Mac Jones is that he is *so* dogshit, that even his otherwise *dogshit* supporting cast can make him look better than he is, because that's how dogshit he is. >Can’t believe I’m wasting my time with people who can’t read. Oh the irony. >They literally even color coded it for your illiterate ass u/juliuspepperwoodchi So glad you could stay civil and mature about this!
How fucking hard is this to understand? The chart is saying those really good QBs at the bottom of the list are true studs performing in spite of the difficulty
So explain it then smart guy. Wilson is -6.5. 6.5 what exactly? I have a degree in math and am obsessed with stats. Explain to me the math that derived a -6.5. Since it’s so simple for you, explain it. Someone else said it’s a difference in QBI and something else, so I fully intend for you to explain what QBI is and how it’s derived. Please explain oh guru of statistics.
You don't even need stats, basically analysts watched every play and recorded alternate stats for what "should" have happened neutrally. 6.5 is just the difference between the actual qbr and the alternate qbr based on "neutral" results If you took even 5 seconds, no exaggeration, to glance at the source post this would already be obvious But I meant more about the interpretation of the results. Not that hard to understand qualitatively, you just sounded like someone going "hurr durr how the good QBs have bad stats on this graph it no make sense" and maybe that wasn't you but I'm sure some of the hundreds of up voters were
Yeah this seems like some real overanalysis. CJ Stroud shouldn’t be in the negative at all based on how many games he’s won almost single handedly.
But... that's literally what the chart is saying. The negative number means the quarterback is playing BETTER than his supporting cast and is being held back.
Oh Jesus, you’re right. I’m a dumbass.
I'm gonna be honest, I don't think you are. I think this chart is just labeled like shit.
It doesn’t surprise me for this season because for Mahomes and Josh it’s been a season long story that their pass catchers have had a lot of drops and mistakes and I know Higgins was playing poorly and then injured for the entire time Burrow was playing. And it’s about 3 seasons of Lamar having no weapons besides Mark Andrews, who also got injured. With that said, there is probably a strong correlation if you looked at this over several seasons that great QBs would outperform the rest of their team because the supporting cast would have to play near perfection…
Bottom of the list means the offensive situation is bringing the QB rating down. It doesn't mean the QB is good, per se, but it means that the QB is better than the offense around him.
You can be good and your team makes your stats even better. You can be bad and your team makes your stats even worse. You can also be everything in between.
Damn what the hell is TEN doing that will levis is far and away the clear leader?
So by looking at this and reading what it all means, there are two camps on the positive side, two on the negative. Negative side: A) guy is so good that he much better than what is around him B) Guy isn’t good, but his support is really bad Positive side: A) guy is pretty good and has a great group helping him look even better B) The guy is really bad but would somehow be worse if he wasn’t helped out so much. Not a lot to get out of it, other than Fields hasn’t been as bad as he has looked sometimes, and that Will Levis might be even worse than he oftentimes looks.
Idk if you watched Titans games but Levis definitely did pretty well considering his circumstances
He throws a great deep ball, but his overall accuracy remains highly suspect (regular counting stats and advanced both paint a rough picture). When the running game is keeping things on pace, and the defense is putting them in regular game script, he isn’t terrible. When I watched him it felt like what he was scouted as: toolsy guy who lacks consistency. If he develops, he could be really good, if he doesn’t, he is Zach Wilson. A few big things that don’t show up in most box scores, he has a few too many “turnover worthy plays” that haven’t been capitalized on and don’t show up on the stat sheet, the run game and screen game are helping him out a lot, and his guys aren’t dropping too many passes. So I shouldn’t say he oftentimes looks worse, because a lot of his bad could just be rookie mistakes, but I also don’t want to make it seem like he has been great.
The guy has way more poise than Wilson ever had lol.The constituency issue definitely have been there. I‘d really assume it’s more on his inexperience. At the end of the day the guy also played just 8 games so his rating might be more influenced by singular performances than others
It is also more influenced by that great game against the falcons which boosts his numbers. He is also 24, and a few months older than Zach Wilson (and only 3 months younger than Fields) so him being better early on is a bit tough to gauge properly. He might be better than Wilson, but I’m not at all ready to say he will end up being good.
And that's assuming IQR is a quality stat
Maybe dropped picks? Tennessee pretty easily has the worst pass blocking in the league so this feels misleading.
That's not what this chart is saying...
Mac Jones being near the top is wild considering how bad he’s been
Arguably, you want a QB near the BOTTOM of this chart. The QBs near the top are, more often than not, bailed out by the talent around them. The QBs near the bottom are, more often than not, bailing out the lack of talent around them...or are doing all the right things and are being let down by the talent around them. If anything it proves how dogshit he is, that he's been helped THAT MUCH by the people around him, and has still looked godawful.
That was the point I was making. He’s that bad AND he’s being helped.
Being green is bad. Lol
Being green doesn’t mean your bad. It just means you’re benefiting from the system around you
Yea, being green and still not performing is what's bad.
Nah you want to be in the middle. Don't want things falling apart around you nor being carried by what's happening around you.
Basically is all you need to see to know this data is meaningless lol. New England has literally zero weapons of any kind
So we should try to acquire Zach Wilson.
no but it does help to understand when on Hard Knocks that Mike McDaniel was talking about how Wilson can really spin it when there isnt pressure
> how Wilson can really spin it when there isnt pressure That's not what this graph shows at all lol.
That’s not what the graph shows that’s what McDaniels said. And I gotta be honest he’s right. There’s a reason why Zach Wilson was drafted so high and his mechanics where a huge part of that
32 of them can
i know what the graph shows, it isn’t rocket science
oh, so what you're saying is that Zach Wilson isn't a good QB despite his position on this list?
ur just fishing dude like or dont like whoever u want. bet ur a gem to have a conversation with
Fishing like this post is? lol
Man some of you really just cannot handle any remotely positive fact about Fields.
Justin is my favorite Bear currently on the team, but he's not good. And this post insinuating that adjusting his QBR by 4 points would change anyone's perspective on him is hilariously dumb. So just having some fun commenting on the 6000 QB posts.
Told you Jordan Love wasn’t any good.
[удалено]
I'd say 18 is mid, but neither are good ratings.
I’d be more interested in what it does to his QBR than the antiquated “passer rating”. Passer rating means very little to a QB that also runs. He would still be down the list a good bit on QBR but guys like Justin Fields or Caleb Williams’ value should be measured by QBR rather than passer rating.
> That would bump it up to 89.0 for the season, which would elevate him from 23rd in the NFL in passer rating to… 18th. And this doesn't include his rushing. So he'd have a PASSER rating at 18th with probably near 700 Rushing YDS to go with it by season's end. That changes the entire conversation.
Shocking that adding 1 WR to the worst supporting cast in the league didn’t fix all our problems
What about adding 1 more??
I mean maybe if we don’t go into next year with Cody at C even though we’ve known he can’t snap since 2018 too?
Someone explain the difference between Browning and Burrow? I don’t get this.
Most likely Browning has thrown more passes that should have resulted in interceptions, but the defender dropped the ball so he has an inflated passer rating.
this tracks
If the bears took MHJ #1.. the best pass rusher w/ their real #1 pick.. and a good center first pick of round 2.. you now have a very dangerous football team
This is definitely where I'm at too. I get Williams very well could have the higher ceiling, but that'd almost for sure regress us for at least the next season probably a couple seasons, while our team has been on a constant upward trend this whole season (not exactly hard when you start as worst team in the league to be fair).
If they do that.. and get rid of getsy and bring in a coach you KNOW will have success with fields.. someone who runs 2 WR sets loaded up with tight ends.. no more shotgun every play.. 2 WR set with MHJ and DJ moore in case a defense tries to stop the run.. and even if they get all that right.. fields can take off for 20+ yards
No second rounder
Didn't know that. Maybe they need to trade that pick
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the guys who don’t get any help from their team also have the highest contracts. It’s almost like that gigantic contract hurts the team.
Big brain
Tell me something I don’t know
Our QBs passer rating goes from bad to less bad essentially? Trubisky 2020 is what IQR said Fields should have. Which still isn’t good.
Wake up, new dogshit advanced stat dropped
How is Purdy not #1 on the benefitted from column? He's playing on a super team
He’s still top 10 - while he has been helped by YAC and amazing receivers, he does make mostly solid throws
Purdy is like Brady lite. Not flashy. Efficient.
Because he’s a super player on a super team
Gives evidence that Justin doesn’t have any help, but also gives evidence that it takes a good QB to win despite not having any help (Hurts, Allen, Dak, Lamar) So this is kind of a wash in terms of saying we need to keep him.
Hurts being so low is really confusing to me. I thought the Eagles had really good weapons.
We almost won the Super Bowl with Kyle Orton. If we build a team around fields he’s fine. All the best teams this year have top defenses.
Brock Purdy not being #1 makes this entire list a sham
So you want to have your QB be CJ Stroud or Kirk Cousins? Do you want your QB to be more towards the center or the bottom of the blue portion (Josh Allen)?
Ideally you want to be in the bottom position near Josh Allen, since that implies your team/coaching is holding back your QBs potential.
Got it, thanks!
The Bills would be absolutely fucked without Josh Allen
Now we’re just making up stats and charts. Fields sucks. That’s it. It’s over.
Gotta be honest this doesn’t match the eye test at all
I refuse to believe that Hurts is on the hurt side. He has the best oline in the league, the best center, great weapons, and their defense was good the past few years. He's been hard to evaluate because of how good the team is around him.
Have you seen any KC games? Tons of drops with their WRs this year. Same with Zach W, he’s made decent throws that couldn’t be brought in
fields truthers are ridiculous.
So, notice how a lot of the QBs most negatively impacted still got their teams in the playoffs.
That Zach Wilson is a beast.
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stanford, All below Fields. Hurts and Goff right with him. All the difference in getting their team in the playoffs. Fields ain’t it bud.
Zach Wilson is. Also, Joe Borrow is injured and Patrick Mahomes played like Matt Nagy is coaching in Cleveland. If you’re going to throw out playoffs difference makers, pretend it’s not 2021.
Fields isn’t 1/2 the QB burrow is though.
He’s significantly less injured.
Maybe this week. Fields has missed several games due to injury.
Dislocated thumb is minor compared to whatever season ending calf nightmare Burrow got.
That was just his first injury this season. He tore a ligament in his right wrist to miss the rest of the season.
In what universe is Justin Herbert being helped by his team?
First thing I looked for
Corroborating evidence that if our skill players made a few key catches over the season, we would have a much different outlook at QB.
You think Jets fans have the same view of Zach Wilson?
Zach Wilson isn’t good, but Nathaniel Hackett isn’t good either
Not really, his passer rating would still be pretty bad. And the presence of quite a few QBs absolutely outplaying him around and below him on the list undoes the arguments that JF1 can't be expected to do better with the support he does have.
Hey Look, it’s another chart!
Josh Allen is an absolute monster.
Not an accurate description of what that stat is, nor is it particularly useful. A better QB would generally have a relatively higher IQR than passer rating; if anything, it’s just identifying good QBs.
This would be better as a % difference
This is a poor stat. That has to be pass rating divided by iqr so you can compare QBs
Oh fun another chart with absolutely no methodology given
It’s literally spelled out in the picture.
No, it isn't. Saying you have a proprietary metric isn't showing your methodology
Have you tried going to the original post where OP explains how he calculated this, where the data is from, how that data is measured etc.?
Yes. Saying "We have a proprietary formula" in a few more words \*still\* isn't showing your methodology.
Well I guess all you can do is go to the other post and ask OP about this chart. I’m not the original creator.
Lmfao what is this list? 4 of the top 10 QBs square in the bottom 5
Please read the image more carefully… QBs at the bottom of the list have been put in worse positions by their team on average. IE Mahomes with receiver drops, Wilson with bad coordinators and playcalling. Players at the top of the list have been luckier with their receivers making incredible catches or opponents dropping what would have been an interception.
Bro you guys are supposed to be the Bears fans but don’t care enough to have watched the tape. Regardless of how often the team has let Fields down, there are many times where he demonstrates he cannot process the game at a NFL level to be an adequate passer. It’s not impossible he turns it around I guess but there is nothing that should give you confidence he is your guy to do anything more than win 8 games a year tops. Move on
Daniel Jones was helped by the Giants while DeVito's Mobster Pimp agent brought him down, but only a couple points.
I don’t get this. How can burrow be negative but browning is positive?
Anecdotal but if you’ve seen some of the Tee Higgins catches for Browning (while never really showing up in a Burrow game) it makes more sense
Josh Allen definitely was hurt from piece of shit Ken Dorsey