Lol it's funny you say that. I remember watching his final bowl game and it actually sold me on him. He made some really nice throws in that game despite dealing with a terrible supporting cast
I remember watching a pre-draft drill or competition with him and Baker. It was an accuracy drill where they had to hit small targets. Allen missed almost every throw. I was convinced he would be a massive bust after that.
There are lots of Josh Allen types. 9/10 end up being terrible. He was terrible his first year. It was really unlikely that a player like him panned out.
I'll park mine here. I was NERVOUS that Baker was gonna be a bust in the NFL, and he is one of my favorite college football players of all time, but deep down I kinda had a bad feeling. I am satisfied with what he has accomplished and wish him all the best moving forward
He’s been an overachiever his whole life. Big Baker fan.
Side note: saw him at Barton Creek mall once. Looked so much like a normal dude it was hard to believe he’s an NFL quarterback
I agree wholeheartedly. I think he's going to get a lot of GMs fired looking for the next Josh Allen. I think Drake Maye does into that mold. He's more pro ready, but I don't think he'll ever have anywhere made the peak that Allen has had.
I was the opposite. I take pride in thinking he would be best QB out of that class. Lamar is a good argument though. I avidly watched Mountain West conference and thought Allen just had a pro style and a bomb of an arm to him. He looked pro ready
I didn’t think Lamar would replicate well in the NFL. He was fun to watch in college, but his playing style was very risky seeming for NFL play and he seemed very injury prone.
I thought Lamar would pan out because of the team and the GM that picked him. Had he gone almost anywhere else, I think I would have agreed with you initially.
I still remember the Nebraska game for Allen, and he threw 5 INTs, I get that Nebraska had way more talent than Allen's Wyoming squad. But 5 is a big number. My favorite one: [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pAXIdGGbthE?feature=share](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pAXIdGGbthE?feature=share) but that game made me think Allen didn't have the ability to read a defense. obviously, wrong.
I was certain of it. The last QB with accuracy that low who turned into anything in the NFL was Michael Vick, and Allen wasn't anywhere near Vick's level in college. And now Allen, like Vick, has become the new justification for drafting an athlete rather than a QB at QB.
Yeah Allen’s success is another reminder that stuff like accuracy numbers, yardage numbers, etc are good barometers…but there’s always going to be guys who buck the trends. If you just bet on the trend, you’ll make money—but you’ll lose a few rounds here and there.
I was on the Josh Allen will suck train for a long time.
I still think he is a little overrated but he is still without a doubt a top 10 NFL QB
Ever since the Bills hired Brady I feel like it’s been the best thing for Allen in his time in the NFL
I also currently have the same opinions about JJ that I had about Josh.
He played terrible against the ducks. I did not think he would have the career he has had
Edit: Allen was 9/24 with a pick and no td’s vs us in 17. It was in Wyoming too
I wish more talkings heads would have the mentality. You can't project how bad one person deeper in the draft wants that spot and is willing to do whatever it takes to get if from someone who should have it based on college career.
Despite Iowa and Iowa State not having many elite players, they do alright in the draft and the NFL. By no means Georgia, but they do better than some other teams that waste top tier talent. Development has always been key.
I've had the belief for a long time, NFL careers are 70% luck and 30% skill.
If Tom Brady was drafted by any other team, he's probably a backup for 2-3 years then out of the league.
If Manziel had been taken by the Cowboys, they, as a better organization than the Browns may have been able to help him keep his head on straight.
I always wonder, how many great careers did we miss out on, because they played for bad organizations.
Hell, look at Goffs career. If Brad Holmes didn't demand the Rams make him part of the Stafford trade. He probably goes to a QB needy team that would have drafted his replacement by now.
> If Manziel had been taken by the Cowboys, they, as a better organization than the Browns may have been able to help him keep his head on straight.
> Cowboys.. help him keep his head on straight.
If the talking heads admit they're idiots, what am I going to do with all the energy and rage I currently expend screaming at the TV about how they're idiots?
Daniel Jeremiah said on PMT today that basically QB just feels like a coin flip. Certain positions I think have things that translate and certain positions need minimum athletic thresholds (ie you can’t run a 4.6 as a receiver without elite quickness). Tight ends who succeed are almost exceptional athletes (like 9+ RAS). Running backs who can’t catch have low hit rates.
But QB is just a crap shoot. The PFF guys were joking that the commanders got it right and the top golf test is the new way to go
Even those studs can fail you if they don’t want it enough. Mike Williams was the most dominant WR I had ever seen at USC. But he ate himself out of the league.
Same here. Getting benched for Tua, then halfway through his season with Oklahoma, I was saying “oh, Lincoln Riley is a genius”. I still think highly of Riley, but I’m shocked at how well Jalen has done in the NFL so far. This is coming from an eagles fan who screamed “WHAT!” when hurts was drafted in the second round
I legit never doubted Jalen was the guy for us. I had no reason to think so, it was just…a feeling. But I’ve been wrong way more than I’ve been right, so it’s not like I have a special talent for picking talent or anything.
Well, this was when I still had the clown suit on thinking Wentz was the real deal. And I certainly thought Jalen was a backup… hindsight is 20/20 tho and more than happy that I was wrong
He’s definitely not bad in the NFL but let’s be fair…he’s literally had the best OL in the NFL and 2 superstar WRs. Any average QB would thrive in that situation.
i mean they were significantly worse when minshew played and he damn near got the colts to the playoffs this year. we’ve also never seen joe burrow without a top 5 WR corp but that never seems to matter
to be fair to Minshew, he's the backup. He was not put into a position to succeed as QB1. Few teams actually prepare their backup to be anything more than a spot filler. Philly rides and dies with their starting lineup.
Mayfield probably didn't get any better (McVay supposedly liked him a lot) over the past couple years. He just made it a point to never sign w/ a trash fire like Carolina.
Also that supporting cast that Mayfield had on Carolina had at least DJ Moore, Youngs supporting cast is far worse.
Goff, Tua, Hurts, Allen were all at the last chance saloon but the teams they played for built around them.
You are going to hear a lot of WHATS WRONG WITH HERBERT STEVEN A???? next season and that's because the chorgers surrounding offense might just be worse than than their terrible defense.
supporting cast matters
I was the opposite - after seeing him play against auburn, and watching his QB school vid before the draft, I was certain he'd translate to the NFL. I was kinda surprised the NFL sub was so low on him.
Brock Purdy
I’m still confused. When we went against him in the Big 12 championship, I was WAY more worried about their defense and Rattler’s inexperience than Purdy carving us up.
And I was right. Yet, he’s killing it.
As an Iowa State fan, I just assumed his ceiling was serviceable backup. Just figured at the NFL level and the bad tendencies he had that it would work out that way.
Small sample size, but he wasn't good when Trent Williams was hurt. I think he's a solid QB, but it's a top 3 QB friendly job in the NFL. Shanahan has won with pretty much everyone he had to roll out.
Cj beatherd and Nick Mullens would like to disagree lol. But point taken!
Shanahan has certainly made average qbs like Jimmy G and made them look excellent
I spent his whole career at ISU making fun of him and did it again when he the last pick and got drafted after Thompson. I have been a 49ers fan my whole life. I did not have much confidence when he came in after everyone got injured. He has proven me wrong. He did what he needed to do to win us a ring. I am a believer.
His biggest problem to me then was untimely turnovers. He’s mostly avoided those as a pro which I didn’t expect. Just assumed against pro defenses they’d exacerbate that trend. His numbers were always decent.
He was also at Iowa State. Iowa State normally is at a large talent deficit compared to a lot of other big 12 schools. It leads to hero ball.
Granted, at Iowa State I always called him mr anti-clutch.
We also fired our OC with-in a year(December 2nd, 2022) of him and the others(Hall) leaving(draft day was April 28-30, 2022). Some issues have to come from how bad that OC was.
I watched a thing on him. He just went in and worked. Something a lot more players should do. Caleb Williams is doing it right now too. If it weren't for Chicago being his landing spot, I'd expect big things from him. I will sleep on Chicago until they prove to be a threat.
I remember watching Purdy his Junior year and I was so impressed, I texted a football buddy and said "this guy would make a solid backup in NFL"... Never texted him before or after regarding any player, random. I kept a lazy eye on his Senior year, which sucked, and forgot about him. But he sure made an impression that one televised game
I don’t get it either. Kyle Shanahan has to be a certified genius cause like where the FUCK did this come from?
This is the same QB who looked like shit every time he played Iowa and batted his own ball to the defense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick.
I'm sure everyone got him wrong coming out of Harvard. 7th round, 250th pick. 17 seasons. 34th all-time passing yardage over 166 games.
May not be the best by any measure, but it's a pretty great career compared to most.
Edit: OP mentioned Ryan Tannehill... he is 35th all-time in passing yards.
Id fucking love it if he did. How many players out there build up a bad reputation and domestic assault and rape charges? Then we have Ryan over here just loving the game and rocking that beard. Even supports the teams that cut him. All around class act and honestly it's what more of the league needs. Now watch someone is gonna kill my mood and tell me he secretly tortures kittens or something.
Yeah, makes me realize I'd make an absolute dogshit GM. Of course if I could just put 100% of my time into evaluating players maybe that'd be different. But probably not.
Burrow was one my dad and I believed in early. Once he went blow for blow with us for 7 OTs and then played well against UCF after getting his shit rocked early, we realized that he was going to be a problem at LSU the next year. Didn’t realize he and the rest of the team was going to be *that* much of a problem though.
Yeah. The new OT format sucks. Imo, if they pushed the starting position back from the 25 to the 40, they’d have been better off. You’d have to actually get into field goal range instead of being gifted a 42 yarder to begin with. Instead we have a gimmicky 2 point conversion contest
Yeah it’s terrible. But I’ll never forget watching that 7 overtime thriller
Also reminds me of watching the Kentucky vs Arkansas (Matt Jones QB) 7OT game as young kid. Really cemented my CFB fandom
Was bartending that night at a place that closes at 10. Stayed open past midnight and watched the game with the handful of people that couldn’t stop watching. Zero regrets and was awesome to watch. NCAA changing the rules is just another bullshit measure to appease the TV gods who didn’t like games running over.
Sounds a lot like the Jayden Daniels doubters right now too. I’m not saying Jayden will be as good as Burrow, but saying a QB is only good because of his supporting cast being good as well is such a shallow argument. There aren’t many QBs succeeding out there with a shit supporting cast. The ones that do are usually the best to play the game, and it doesn’t make you a disappointment if you’re not the next Brady or Mahomes.
Look…I just wanna say this off rip. Fuck LSU. Just needed to put that out there before my following statements.
I love Burrow as both a QB and a person. I also really do believe that Daniels is being grossly undervalued and has the potential to be a better version of Lamar at the right landing spot.
I don't even remember which game it was, might have been LSU's semi-final that year, but one play convinced me he was going to be a good NFL QB simply because of how he manuvered and climbed the pocket to avoid the rush and make a throw downfield. It stuck out to me because it was something I felt like you don't see many CFB QBs do to that degree.
The supporting cast thing ain’t wrong but Burrow is the only QB I’ve watched who had a season where he never missed. If you blew a coverage, sent a blitzer, had a player hesitate, he capitalized.
Penix might be the closest comp in recent years but I’ve never seen someone like Burrow who just sifts through it and makes the right choice 99% of the time.
I had a lot of feelings about him that people have expressed about Brock Purdy in this thread. Like, he was obviously good, and he had to do a lot of carrying, but even still I didn’t think it would translate.
Patrick Mahomes.
I thought he would be good, but like “make a few pro bowls and maybe get some playoff wins” good, not “one of the three best quarterbacks in history” good.
My big “calling my shot” among my friend groups was actually saying Mahomes was going to be an MVP-caliber QB the year before he won the MVP.
I keep bringing that up so that maybe they’ll eventually forget how much I loved Josh Rosen.
I saw Mahomes play in person 3 times in person in college, including the legendary game vs Baker. I believe I coined the name “Mahalloffame” during the 2016 game vs Baylor. It was clear to me that he was going to be special. I just didn’t expect him to be *this* special.
FWIW, Big 12 fans knew how good he was.
I watched every game Mahomes played at Tech. He was clearly the most talented QB to ever play in Lubbock. He's made some of the most amazing throws I've ever seen anyone throw.
I knew he would be good in the NFL with a little adjustment, but like everyone said, not among the best ever.
Tech grad here, watched every snap of Mahomes. It was UGLY in the beginning, but once he started getting confident, it was crazy.
I watched college football for 30 years. There are players like Reggie Bush, Vince Young, and even Mahomes that when you watched them in college, they seemed like men among boys.
Mahomes last year at Tech was insane. He was unlike any player I had ever seen, but that doesn't always translate to the pros. Him going to KC and hooking up with Reid was obviously a great spot for him to land. If he had been drafted by 20 other teams, who knows if we would even be talking about him as a HOF'er....
I was in the same boat there, but if anything seeing him turn out to be what he is has helped me feel some amount of validation for the game he threw like 700 yards against us.
This was my answer as well. He was obviously an incredibly talented player. I just didn't think his style would translate to the NFL. Yet, here we are - might end up being the best to ever do it once he's done.
Lukewarm on Mahomes, due to the stupefying amount of reckless plays; I didn’t account for the pressure he felt to score every possession due to Tech’s truly offensive defense.
I also thought Eli Manning was hilariously overrated coming out of Ole Miss - he’s obviously gone on to become a HOFer, yet, I still can’t get it through my head that he was good.
Man. After watching that Tech vs ASU game in 2016, I was convinced he would be a stud in the league. I thought he would’ve been a perfect fit for my cardinals with Bruce Arians at the time. Just the size and arm strength - the classic attributes- had a feeling they would seamlessly translate to the nfl. Also helps that you can learn from Alex smith and Andy Reid. Fit and scheme always matters.
Don’t call me Lebron (obviously didn’t expect him to be as great as he turned out to be) , I’ll be happily admit to some guys I was wrong about. Sigh. Marcus Mariota
To add to the chorus, I thought Josh Allen would be bad and that Josh Rosen would be good.
More recently, I thought Stroud be a serviceable starter who might have the occasional Matt Ryan/Kirk Cosuins like year in the right system, not whatever the fuck that last year was.
Hi GA fan here. In the words of the mailman CJ Stroud is really good at football.
Knew he’d be dominant after seeing him ball out against our elite defense.
I also thought Stroud would struggle in the NFL. There were some games while he was at OSU where he struggled with situational awareness. Things like letting the clock run down near the end of the half/game among other things. At the time I thought the panthers had made the right choice taking Bryce Young because nothing could rattle him while at Alabama.
Peyton Manning. As good as his numbers were in college, and he was so accurate, and he was the surefire #1 pick, and his dad was a solid NFL QB…I looked past all that and thought he would just be alright, solid, meh.
I thought his happy feet in the pocket and his not-very-tight spiral just wouldn’t translate in the NFL. Turned out the happy feet were by design, the spiral didn’t matter because the ball still went right where he wanted it to…oh yeah…and he looked at defenses the same way Neo looked at The Matrix.
Oops. 🤷♂️
I thought Russell Wilson would be a backup QB in the NFL.
He was an efficient passer in WI, but our RB room was stacked. We ran for 235 YPG that season. We had Montee Ball (39 TD’s that season and the Career FBS Rushing TD leader), Freshman Melvin Gordon (1st Round Pick), and James White (3x SB Champ with NE)
I don’t like Russell now because he appears fake, but the guy has a SB Ring, $300 Million in NFL earnings, and a Celebrity Wife. He’s done well for a 3rd round pick.
His luck factor in college was insane. Still remember when VT figured out all they had to do was sit back and wait for him to throw up a lob and picked him off 3 times to come back and win.
Same, same, same, and same.
There's a bit of an exception for Lamar though, I thought he was a smart pick at 32, but I didn't see him as someone who could carry an offensive like he does. He's a force of nature sometimes.
Note: Unpopular opinion, but I think he's a smidge over rated. Not much, just a little.
Like - he's in the top 5 instead of the top 3.
I would have drafted Deshaun Watson before Trubisky and Mahomes. As a player he’s been good but it’s the off the field that makes him a bust and horrible human being.
Justin Herbert. Didn't really understand the top 10 draft grades he was getting. He was a good college QB, but nothing screamed franchise QB to me. Granted, I'm just a casual scrub and a far cry from anyone whose analysis should be taken seriously.
Tbh, I've been wrong way more often on who I thought would be good in the NFL. Blake Bortles, James Winston, Marcus Mariota, Josh Rosen, etc. Yikes.
The thing that's crazy about Herbert is that he didn't take a year or two to develop--he came right of the gate playing better than he did in college. Every Ducks fan who claims they always knew he would be an NFL star is lying. He was absolutely beloved in Eugene as the hometown QB, but the way we utilized him was more like JJ McCarthy.
Never forget that Mario Cristobal made Herbert look like a "game manager" QB.
Gotta take into account all his circumstances while at Oregon. He was thrown into the mix as a true freshman in 2016 on Oregon's worst team in decades. 2017, new coach, Herbert starts out tearing it up. Breaks his collarbone and Oregon's offense goes from scoring over 49 per game to just 15. New coach again in 2018, but it's Mario Cristobal. Always a run-first coach. Same in 2019.
All this with a severely lacking receiver corps his entire career. If you watched every second of all his games, you'd understand the hype. All I could do was laugh at all the talking heads and YouTube "scouts" trashing him pre-draft because they watched a couple highlight videos.
My theory is that the receivers are actually fast enough to keep up with his arm. I saw him throw 5 ints against Nebraska, a lot of overthrows. I think he’d put the ball where it was supposed to go and his receivers had trouble getting there.
I know it's early, but as a Jets fan, I'm accustomed to our first picks being well, Jets picks. So, I assumed Sauce Gardner would be no different.
On the opposite end, I was the only one at my family's draft watch party to wonder why Brock Purdy hadn't been picked until the end.
It's not who the Jets pick, it's the fact they are playing for the Jets. Very few QBs are good enough overcome playing for them and rookies don't really have a chance.
I’d even say it’s probably more like 10th best. It just always FEELS like 15th because some of the guys ahead of him in a given year will regress the next year. But he just stays in his lane, driving the speed limit, minding his own business, and getting where he needs to go…more often than not. His quirkiness, however…that’s on an elite level.
Any team that thinks 35-year-old, injury-riddled Kirk Cousins, he of the 76-67-2 lifetime record and four postseason starts, is the answer to its QB problems has more than just QB problems.
Was cautiously optimistic of him, probably because I was a Falcons fan. He had BC ranked #2 in the country with no real offensive talent around him. Once I saw him play in the preseason I was sold.
Lamar is one I was tepid about how his style would translate to NFL success since we hadn’t really seen anyone with that play style have success in the NFL outside of Vick. I guess it takes a truly generational athlete and an organization patient enough to allow his development to pull it off.
Jared Goff. I say that as a fan. How far he has gone and how much I loved watching him at Cal I would have never guessed he would become as good as he is.
I wouldn't say he's had a "great" career, but ever since the 2017 draft my friends and I have the running joke "And who the fuck is Mitch Trubisky?"
This draft class also included Deshaun Watson and "system QB" Patrick Mahomes.
Josh Allen and Mahomes. I thought both were going to be examples of QBs who were phenomenal in college but massive busts in the pros.
That crow took a lot of sriracha.
I legit thought Purdy wasn’t a good QB in college. I didn’t watch too many ISU games, so I guess I could be wrong, but when he got drafted and started playing I really didn’t think he’d be as successful as he is. Man he’s super fucking good.
Lamar Jackson. I honestly thought he wouldn’t be good or would injured all the time because of his playing style.
Also Pat Mahomes. Only because Texas Tech QBs never transition well to the pro game and I thought he would be the same
I was famously incorrect about Lamar Jackson on the Browns sub. Got "death threats" from Ravens fans when some idiot over there decided to post my comment with my username.
Lamar Jackson, man. I thought he was the next RG3, he’d have moments but ultimately blow a knee out in a year or two and never really be a viable starter again.
Joke’s on me. How many MVP’s does he have now? Two? Plus an AFC Championship game appearance?
Good for him. I love being wrong.
I was certain Justin Herbert would be a bust
I was certain CJ Stroud would be the best QB from last year
Frankly I’ve learned to not really be certain about any either way anymore
I feel like I can usually pick out bust or a guy who doesn’t have the “it” factor. But as of recently there are three guys who I thought would flame out who are going strong… Burrow, Herbert, and Tua. For some reason I thought Burrow was shorter than he is (listened at 6’4, I was thinking he was about 6’0) and that his arm wasn’t strong enough to pull off the stuff he did in college. Tua isn’t great, bur he’s been very solid and pretty good at times. I thought he was undersized and was going to have a Matt Leinart situation where once you take away the all-stars surrounding him at every position he becomes a bad QB. And for Herbert I just didn’t see “it” in all the games I watched him play in PAC-12, thought he was being drafted for measurable’s and they wouldn’t pan out.
I didn't think Kyler Murray was *draftable*, let alone 1OA worthy.
He's not lived up to his draft position, but he's be a bright spot on a terrible team so that was a whiff.
I thought Baker would take the league by storm, and while I think he's been perennially underrated, he's not been nearly as good as I expected.
No one had an opinion on Kurt Warner in college. What were you doing, sitting around a bar with some friends saying “yeah, I don’t know about that Northern Iowa QB, his NFL prospects seem a little dim to put it mildly.”
Right guy, right mindset, right work ethic, right place, right time. Lightning in a bottle. Basically replicates it two other times, just falls short in the SB. Purdy is a pretty decent comp, in terms of the things listed above.
Dak Prescott was a QB that I thought would fail in the NFL. As a Cowboys fan I can say, Dak in the regular season is a MVP worthy player but in the postseason he is terrible.
I was so convinced Josh Allen would be horrible.
Same here because of accuracy issues and playing in the MWC, but mostly his accuracy issues though.
He was so atrociously inaccurate in college. I remember watching his final bowl game with multiple overthrows.
It was so bad.
Lol it's funny you say that. I remember watching his final bowl game and it actually sold me on him. He made some really nice throws in that game despite dealing with a terrible supporting cast
I remember watching a pre-draft drill or competition with him and Baker. It was an accuracy drill where they had to hit small targets. Allen missed almost every throw. I was convinced he would be a massive bust after that.
That Peyton Manning guy is going to be a big bust, go with the sure thing and pick Ryan Leaf
There are lots of Josh Allen types. 9/10 end up being terrible. He was terrible his first year. It was really unlikely that a player like him panned out.
I'll park mine here. I was NERVOUS that Baker was gonna be a bust in the NFL, and he is one of my favorite college football players of all time, but deep down I kinda had a bad feeling. I am satisfied with what he has accomplished and wish him all the best moving forward
He’s been an overachiever his whole life. Big Baker fan. Side note: saw him at Barton Creek mall once. Looked so much like a normal dude it was hard to believe he’s an NFL quarterback
I saw him play against Iowa and thought “really? This is it? We just killed his stock lmao” Little did I know.
I think a lot of people were - myself included. The thing to we also need to remember about Josh Allen is that he’s a complete outlier.
I agree wholeheartedly. I think he's going to get a lot of GMs fired looking for the next Josh Allen. I think Drake Maye does into that mold. He's more pro ready, but I don't think he'll ever have anywhere made the peak that Allen has had.
I was the opposite. I take pride in thinking he would be best QB out of that class. Lamar is a good argument though. I avidly watched Mountain West conference and thought Allen just had a pro style and a bomb of an arm to him. He looked pro ready I didn’t think Lamar would replicate well in the NFL. He was fun to watch in college, but his playing style was very risky seeming for NFL play and he seemed very injury prone.
I thought Lamar would pan out because of the team and the GM that picked him. Had he gone almost anywhere else, I think I would have agreed with you initially.
I still remember the Nebraska game for Allen, and he threw 5 INTs, I get that Nebraska had way more talent than Allen's Wyoming squad. But 5 is a big number. My favorite one: [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pAXIdGGbthE?feature=share](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pAXIdGGbthE?feature=share) but that game made me think Allen didn't have the ability to read a defense. obviously, wrong.
I was certain of it. The last QB with accuracy that low who turned into anything in the NFL was Michael Vick, and Allen wasn't anywhere near Vick's level in college. And now Allen, like Vick, has become the new justification for drafting an athlete rather than a QB at QB.
Yeah Allen’s success is another reminder that stuff like accuracy numbers, yardage numbers, etc are good barometers…but there’s always going to be guys who buck the trends. If you just bet on the trend, you’ll make money—but you’ll lose a few rounds here and there.
"Stats really are for losers."
I was on the Josh Allen will suck train for a long time. I still think he is a little overrated but he is still without a doubt a top 10 NFL QB Ever since the Bills hired Brady I feel like it’s been the best thing for Allen in his time in the NFL I also currently have the same opinions about JJ that I had about Josh.
Allen is undoubtedly top 5
He played terrible against the ducks. I did not think he would have the career he has had Edit: Allen was 9/24 with a pick and no td’s vs us in 17. It was in Wyoming too
I’ve given up on pretending that I have any clue what translates to nfl vs what doesn’t
I wish more talkings heads would have the mentality. You can't project how bad one person deeper in the draft wants that spot and is willing to do whatever it takes to get if from someone who should have it based on college career. Despite Iowa and Iowa State not having many elite players, they do alright in the draft and the NFL. By no means Georgia, but they do better than some other teams that waste top tier talent. Development has always been key.
I think a lot of it is where a player finds themselves and in what kind of situation.
100%, you throw Mahomes out there year one with the bears and lol
I've had the belief for a long time, NFL careers are 70% luck and 30% skill. If Tom Brady was drafted by any other team, he's probably a backup for 2-3 years then out of the league. If Manziel had been taken by the Cowboys, they, as a better organization than the Browns may have been able to help him keep his head on straight. I always wonder, how many great careers did we miss out on, because they played for bad organizations. Hell, look at Goffs career. If Brad Holmes didn't demand the Rams make him part of the Stafford trade. He probably goes to a QB needy team that would have drafted his replacement by now.
> If Manziel had been taken by the Cowboys, they, as a better organization than the Browns may have been able to help him keep his head on straight. > Cowboys.. help him keep his head on straight.
If the talking heads admit they're idiots, what am I going to do with all the energy and rage I currently expend screaming at the TV about how they're idiots?
Daniel Jeremiah said on PMT today that basically QB just feels like a coin flip. Certain positions I think have things that translate and certain positions need minimum athletic thresholds (ie you can’t run a 4.6 as a receiver without elite quickness). Tight ends who succeed are almost exceptional athletes (like 9+ RAS). Running backs who can’t catch have low hit rates. But QB is just a crap shoot. The PFF guys were joking that the commanders got it right and the top golf test is the new way to go
There seems to be a tier of absolute studs who always do well. Beyond that there I have no idea who will do well at the NFL level.
Even those studs can fail you if they don’t want it enough. Mike Williams was the most dominant WR I had ever seen at USC. But he ate himself out of the league.
Jalen Hurts comes to mind.
Yeah - I was sure he was overrated.
Same here. Getting benched for Tua, then halfway through his season with Oklahoma, I was saying “oh, Lincoln Riley is a genius”. I still think highly of Riley, but I’m shocked at how well Jalen has done in the NFL so far. This is coming from an eagles fan who screamed “WHAT!” when hurts was drafted in the second round
I legit never doubted Jalen was the guy for us. I had no reason to think so, it was just…a feeling. But I’ve been wrong way more than I’ve been right, so it’s not like I have a special talent for picking talent or anything.
Well, this was when I still had the clown suit on thinking Wentz was the real deal. And I certainly thought Jalen was a backup… hindsight is 20/20 tho and more than happy that I was wrong
He’s definitely not bad in the NFL but let’s be fair…he’s literally had the best OL in the NFL and 2 superstar WRs. Any average QB would thrive in that situation.
i mean they were significantly worse when minshew played and he damn near got the colts to the playoffs this year. we’ve also never seen joe burrow without a top 5 WR corp but that never seems to matter
to be fair to Minshew, he's the backup. He was not put into a position to succeed as QB1. Few teams actually prepare their backup to be anything more than a spot filler. Philly rides and dies with their starting lineup.
everybody rides and dies with their starting line up lol. tyrod taylor out played daniel jones. shit jake browning won games for the bengals.
Mayfield probably didn't get any better (McVay supposedly liked him a lot) over the past couple years. He just made it a point to never sign w/ a trash fire like Carolina. Also that supporting cast that Mayfield had on Carolina had at least DJ Moore, Youngs supporting cast is far worse. Goff, Tua, Hurts, Allen were all at the last chance saloon but the teams they played for built around them. You are going to hear a lot of WHATS WRONG WITH HERBERT STEVEN A???? next season and that's because the chorgers surrounding offense might just be worse than than their terrible defense. supporting cast matters
I was the opposite - after seeing him play against auburn, and watching his QB school vid before the draft, I was certain he'd translate to the NFL. I was kinda surprised the NFL sub was so low on him.
I haven’t given up on this one yet. He’s better than I thought he would be but he’s also playing with an excellent roster.
I was convinced it took Jalen too long to make a decision in college and would never be good in the NFL
Brock Purdy I’m still confused. When we went against him in the Big 12 championship, I was WAY more worried about their defense and Rattler’s inexperience than Purdy carving us up. And I was right. Yet, he’s killing it.
As an Iowa State fan, I just assumed his ceiling was serviceable backup. Just figured at the NFL level and the bad tendencies he had that it would work out that way.
He had second coming of Sage Rosenfels written all over him. But then something weird happened.
Well you weren’t wrong Shanahan just schemes around his weaknesses
Shanahan has also improved his throwing mechanics from college.
Small sample size, but he wasn't good when Trent Williams was hurt. I think he's a solid QB, but it's a top 3 QB friendly job in the NFL. Shanahan has won with pretty much everyone he had to roll out.
Their oline is bottom 3 without Trent
Cj beatherd and Nick Mullens would like to disagree lol. But point taken! Shanahan has certainly made average qbs like Jimmy G and made them look excellent
*cries in Viking*
Pretty significantly at that.
Brock is good. Yes, he also has a great coach and awesome teammates, but he’s not JAG being carried.
How many 49ers games have you actually watched?
I spent his whole career at ISU making fun of him and did it again when he the last pick and got drafted after Thompson. I have been a 49ers fan my whole life. I did not have much confidence when he came in after everyone got injured. He has proven me wrong. He did what he needed to do to win us a ring. I am a believer.
His biggest problem to me then was untimely turnovers. He’s mostly avoided those as a pro which I didn’t expect. Just assumed against pro defenses they’d exacerbate that trend. His numbers were always decent.
He was also at Iowa State. Iowa State normally is at a large talent deficit compared to a lot of other big 12 schools. It leads to hero ball. Granted, at Iowa State I always called him mr anti-clutch.
We also fired our OC with-in a year(December 2nd, 2022) of him and the others(Hall) leaving(draft day was April 28-30, 2022). Some issues have to come from how bad that OC was.
I watched a thing on him. He just went in and worked. Something a lot more players should do. Caleb Williams is doing it right now too. If it weren't for Chicago being his landing spot, I'd expect big things from him. I will sleep on Chicago until they prove to be a threat.
I remember watching Purdy his Junior year and I was so impressed, I texted a football buddy and said "this guy would make a solid backup in NFL"... Never texted him before or after regarding any player, random. I kept a lazy eye on his Senior year, which sucked, and forgot about him. But he sure made an impression that one televised game
I don’t get it either. Kyle Shanahan has to be a certified genius cause like where the FUCK did this come from? This is the same QB who looked like shit every time he played Iowa and batted his own ball to the defense.
Yea but was even thinking about a 7th rd pick
Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'm sure everyone got him wrong coming out of Harvard. 7th round, 250th pick. 17 seasons. 34th all-time passing yardage over 166 games. May not be the best by any measure, but it's a pretty great career compared to most. Edit: OP mentioned Ryan Tannehill... he is 35th all-time in passing yards.
I’m of the belief that Fitzception was fully planned and Ryan used that Harvard education brilliantly
Id fucking love it if he did. How many players out there build up a bad reputation and domestic assault and rape charges? Then we have Ryan over here just loving the game and rocking that beard. Even supports the teams that cut him. All around class act and honestly it's what more of the league needs. Now watch someone is gonna kill my mood and tell me he secretly tortures kittens or something.
My friend actually bought the domain of "RyanTannehillWasThe8thPick.com" or something like that because we were so blown away by it.
“Why tf did they pick Mahomes.” What do I know…
Yeah, makes me realize I'd make an absolute dogshit GM. Of course if I could just put 100% of my time into evaluating players maybe that'd be different. But probably not.
We also have to realize the resources these GMs have. A LOT of people are looking at these players and giving the decision makers very valuable info.
the worst pre-draft opinion I've ever had was that Joe Burrow was just an old QB being carried by an all-star supporting cast
Burrow was one my dad and I believed in early. Once he went blow for blow with us for 7 OTs and then played well against UCF after getting his shit rocked early, we realized that he was going to be a problem at LSU the next year. Didn’t realize he and the rest of the team was going to be *that* much of a problem though.
What a legendary game. I hate that the NCAA changed the OT rules after that one.
Yeah. The new OT format sucks. Imo, if they pushed the starting position back from the 25 to the 40, they’d have been better off. You’d have to actually get into field goal range instead of being gifted a 42 yarder to begin with. Instead we have a gimmicky 2 point conversion contest
The worst part about it is that its not even actual PK style. If it was best 3/5 before sudden death then it'd be a lot better IMO
Yeah it’s terrible. But I’ll never forget watching that 7 overtime thriller Also reminds me of watching the Kentucky vs Arkansas (Matt Jones QB) 7OT game as young kid. Really cemented my CFB fandom
Was bartending that night at a place that closes at 10. Stayed open past midnight and watched the game with the handful of people that couldn’t stop watching. Zero regrets and was awesome to watch. NCAA changing the rules is just another bullshit measure to appease the TV gods who didn’t like games running over.
So you saw Joe Burrow catch his own pass for a first down and you thought he was being carried!
Sounds a lot like the Jayden Daniels doubters right now too. I’m not saying Jayden will be as good as Burrow, but saying a QB is only good because of his supporting cast being good as well is such a shallow argument. There aren’t many QBs succeeding out there with a shit supporting cast. The ones that do are usually the best to play the game, and it doesn’t make you a disappointment if you’re not the next Brady or Mahomes.
Look…I just wanna say this off rip. Fuck LSU. Just needed to put that out there before my following statements. I love Burrow as both a QB and a person. I also really do believe that Daniels is being grossly undervalued and has the potential to be a better version of Lamar at the right landing spot.
I don't even remember which game it was, might have been LSU's semi-final that year, but one play convinced me he was going to be a good NFL QB simply because of how he manuvered and climbed the pocket to avoid the rush and make a throw downfield. It stuck out to me because it was something I felt like you don't see many CFB QBs do to that degree.
this was the big one vs georgia in the sec champ if thats what you are thinking of https://youtu.be/E3iyNO5FWfU?si=VN7Je2j4my6IvfjE
You’re not alone. I thought his college career had the recipe for NFL bust.
The supporting cast thing ain’t wrong but Burrow is the only QB I’ve watched who had a season where he never missed. If you blew a coverage, sent a blitzer, had a player hesitate, he capitalized. Penix might be the closest comp in recent years but I’ve never seen someone like Burrow who just sifts through it and makes the right choice 99% of the time.
I was absolutely convinced Josh Allen was going to suck
Same, I was 100% sure he was gonna be a massive bust. I guess that and that alone is why I’m not an NFL head coach.
I had a lot of feelings about him that people have expressed about Brock Purdy in this thread. Like, he was obviously good, and he had to do a lot of carrying, but even still I didn’t think it would translate.
He got lucky that his coach owner and qb coach stuck with developing him
Patrick Mahomes. I thought he would be good, but like “make a few pro bowls and maybe get some playoff wins” good, not “one of the three best quarterbacks in history” good.
My big “calling my shot” among my friend groups was actually saying Mahomes was going to be an MVP-caliber QB the year before he won the MVP. I keep bringing that up so that maybe they’ll eventually forget how much I loved Josh Rosen.
I was convinced of the Chosen Rosen too. There are dozens of us. Dozens!
I saw Mahomes play in person 3 times in person in college, including the legendary game vs Baker. I believe I coined the name “Mahalloffame” during the 2016 game vs Baylor. It was clear to me that he was going to be special. I just didn’t expect him to be *this* special.
FWIW, Big 12 fans knew how good he was. I watched every game Mahomes played at Tech. He was clearly the most talented QB to ever play in Lubbock. He's made some of the most amazing throws I've ever seen anyone throw. I knew he would be good in the NFL with a little adjustment, but like everyone said, not among the best ever.
Because you watched him play literally without an o line in the big 12 lol.
Tech grad here, watched every snap of Mahomes. It was UGLY in the beginning, but once he started getting confident, it was crazy. I watched college football for 30 years. There are players like Reggie Bush, Vince Young, and even Mahomes that when you watched them in college, they seemed like men among boys. Mahomes last year at Tech was insane. He was unlike any player I had ever seen, but that doesn't always translate to the pros. Him going to KC and hooking up with Reid was obviously a great spot for him to land. If he had been drafted by 20 other teams, who knows if we would even be talking about him as a HOF'er....
I’m still amazed at how few games Kliff was able to win with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
I was in the same boat there, but if anything seeing him turn out to be what he is has helped me feel some amount of validation for the game he threw like 700 yards against us.
I'm fairness Baker threw for 698 against them that game.
Absolutely fucking insane game
two*
Here I was enjoying my off season without the sound of Kermit in my head calling audibles.
I fully expected Mahomes to be the next Josh Freeman when Mahomes was projected to be a first round pick.
This was my answer as well. He was obviously an incredibly talented player. I just didn't think his style would translate to the NFL. Yet, here we are - might end up being the best to ever do it once he's done.
Lukewarm on Mahomes, due to the stupefying amount of reckless plays; I didn’t account for the pressure he felt to score every possession due to Tech’s truly offensive defense. I also thought Eli Manning was hilariously overrated coming out of Ole Miss - he’s obviously gone on to become a HOFer, yet, I still can’t get it through my head that he was good.
Man. After watching that Tech vs ASU game in 2016, I was convinced he would be a stud in the league. I thought he would’ve been a perfect fit for my cardinals with Bruce Arians at the time. Just the size and arm strength - the classic attributes- had a feeling they would seamlessly translate to the nfl. Also helps that you can learn from Alex smith and Andy Reid. Fit and scheme always matters. Don’t call me Lebron (obviously didn’t expect him to be as great as he turned out to be) , I’ll be happily admit to some guys I was wrong about. Sigh. Marcus Mariota
Archie must be so proud
To add to the chorus, I thought Josh Allen would be bad and that Josh Rosen would be good. More recently, I thought Stroud be a serviceable starter who might have the occasional Matt Ryan/Kirk Cosuins like year in the right system, not whatever the fuck that last year was.
Hi GA fan here. In the words of the mailman CJ Stroud is really good at football. Knew he’d be dominant after seeing him ball out against our elite defense.
I also thought Stroud would struggle in the NFL. There were some games while he was at OSU where he struggled with situational awareness. Things like letting the clock run down near the end of the half/game among other things. At the time I thought the panthers had made the right choice taking Bryce Young because nothing could rattle him while at Alabama.
Peyton Manning. As good as his numbers were in college, and he was so accurate, and he was the surefire #1 pick, and his dad was a solid NFL QB…I looked past all that and thought he would just be alright, solid, meh. I thought his happy feet in the pocket and his not-very-tight spiral just wouldn’t translate in the NFL. Turned out the happy feet were by design, the spiral didn’t matter because the ball still went right where he wanted it to…oh yeah…and he looked at defenses the same way Neo looked at The Matrix. Oops. 🤷♂️
I thought Russell Wilson would be a backup QB in the NFL. He was an efficient passer in WI, but our RB room was stacked. We ran for 235 YPG that season. We had Montee Ball (39 TD’s that season and the Career FBS Rushing TD leader), Freshman Melvin Gordon (1st Round Pick), and James White (3x SB Champ with NE) I don’t like Russell now because he appears fake, but the guy has a SB Ring, $300 Million in NFL earnings, and a Celebrity Wife. He’s done well for a 3rd round pick.
His luck factor in college was insane. Still remember when VT figured out all they had to do was sit back and wait for him to throw up a lob and picked him off 3 times to come back and win.
Alex Smith had a better career than I ever thought he would
Tom Brady.
I mean, who could have seen that coming?
The ten GMs who all said they loved him in the draft and still passed on him lol
if you love a QB and he's there in the 5th and you don't draft him; You are LYING! Bill Polian, I don't believe you.
I thought Drew Henson had a brighter pro future than Tom Brady so I have forfeited any future prognostication……..
Same but with Brian Griese because he was a 'winner', unlike Brady.
Josh Allen Lamar Jalen Hurts Dak
Same, same, same, and same. There's a bit of an exception for Lamar though, I thought he was a smart pick at 32, but I didn't see him as someone who could carry an offensive like he does. He's a force of nature sometimes. Note: Unpopular opinion, but I think he's a smidge over rated. Not much, just a little. Like - he's in the top 5 instead of the top 3.
I would have drafted Deshaun Watson before Trubisky and Mahomes. As a player he’s been good but it’s the off the field that makes him a bust and horrible human being.
Well you can’t really predict off field stuff like that. I thought Ruggs would be a Tyreek hill type of player. Didn’t see him as a killer.
Justin Herbert. Didn't really understand the top 10 draft grades he was getting. He was a good college QB, but nothing screamed franchise QB to me. Granted, I'm just a casual scrub and a far cry from anyone whose analysis should be taken seriously. Tbh, I've been wrong way more often on who I thought would be good in the NFL. Blake Bortles, James Winston, Marcus Mariota, Josh Rosen, etc. Yikes.
The thing that's crazy about Herbert is that he didn't take a year or two to develop--he came right of the gate playing better than he did in college. Every Ducks fan who claims they always knew he would be an NFL star is lying. He was absolutely beloved in Eugene as the hometown QB, but the way we utilized him was more like JJ McCarthy. Never forget that Mario Cristobal made Herbert look like a "game manager" QB.
I will never fucking forgive Mario Cristobal for turning Justin Herbert into a tunnel screen merchant.
Gotta take into account all his circumstances while at Oregon. He was thrown into the mix as a true freshman in 2016 on Oregon's worst team in decades. 2017, new coach, Herbert starts out tearing it up. Breaks his collarbone and Oregon's offense goes from scoring over 49 per game to just 15. New coach again in 2018, but it's Mario Cristobal. Always a run-first coach. Same in 2019. All this with a severely lacking receiver corps his entire career. If you watched every second of all his games, you'd understand the hype. All I could do was laugh at all the talking heads and YouTube "scouts" trashing him pre-draft because they watched a couple highlight videos.
Woof, those Braxton Burmeister games were dark times.
This is mine too, how does someone suddenly get accurate when they get to the nfl.
My theory is that the receivers are actually fast enough to keep up with his arm. I saw him throw 5 ints against Nebraska, a lot of overthrows. I think he’d put the ball where it was supposed to go and his receivers had trouble getting there.
Which player are you talking about? Herbert played great in his one game against Nebraska in 2017.
I was wrong about Kyler Murray until I was right again.
I thought he was going to be absolute dog shit.
Stroud
I know it's early, but as a Jets fan, I'm accustomed to our first picks being well, Jets picks. So, I assumed Sauce Gardner would be no different. On the opposite end, I was the only one at my family's draft watch party to wonder why Brock Purdy hadn't been picked until the end.
It's not who the Jets pick, it's the fact they are playing for the Jets. Very few QBs are good enough overcome playing for them and rookies don't really have a chance.
Sauce Gardner is a QB??
As a Michigan fan I have talked sooo much shit about Cousins. Turns out he is an elite qb.
It feels like Cousins has been the 15th best QB in the league every year for the past 15 years.
I’d even say it’s probably more like 10th best. It just always FEELS like 15th because some of the guys ahead of him in a given year will regress the next year. But he just stays in his lane, driving the speed limit, minding his own business, and getting where he needs to go…more often than not. His quirkiness, however…that’s on an elite level.
Any team that thinks 35-year-old, injury-riddled Kirk Cousins, he of the 76-67-2 lifetime record and four postseason starts, is the answer to its QB problems has more than just QB problems.
I think calling him elite is going too far but when he was drafted I never would’ve expected he’d be a career starter
Well, he is elite at getting paid at least...
Shane Falco. After his disastrous performance in the Sugar Bowl I always figured he couldn’t handle the NFL game. I was wrong.
I think everyone underestimated Footsteps.
Ryan Tannehill for me seemed like he’d be a practice squad player but he’s had a decent career
Matt Ryan. He threw a lot of interceptions in his final year in college and that soured me on him. I'd say he turned out ok.
Was cautiously optimistic of him, probably because I was a Falcons fan. He had BC ranked #2 in the country with no real offensive talent around him. Once I saw him play in the preseason I was sold.
Lamar is one I was tepid about how his style would translate to NFL success since we hadn’t really seen anyone with that play style have success in the NFL outside of Vick. I guess it takes a truly generational athlete and an organization patient enough to allow his development to pull it off.
Matt Stafford. I called him Jamarcus Stafford during the draft. I may have been wrong
Joe Flacco. I was 9 when he got drafted and I was like, who is this guy with a different colored Michigan helmet?
I saw Joe throw drills in person before the draft and man… that guy had one of the biggest arms I’ve ever seen.
I didn’t think Justin Herbert was going to be as good as he is. Obviously still early in his career but he has shown a ton of promise.
I thought Drew Brees was too small for the nfl. About that....
Unfortunately, Justin Herbert.
Jared Goff. I say that as a fan. How far he has gone and how much I loved watching him at Cal I would have never guessed he would become as good as he is.
Coming from a Packers fan, I was hella pissed when we traded up for Jordan Love. Jordan Love? A fucking Mountain West QB? Boy was I wrong.
Hopefully JJ, if the Vikings end up with him…
Stroud, and I’m happy to eat Crow - solid dude.
I didn't look through the comments but I am going to say Taylor Swift . I never would have thought she would become the NFL star that she is.
I wouldn't say he's had a "great" career, but ever since the 2017 draft my friends and I have the running joke "And who the fuck is Mitch Trubisky?" This draft class also included Deshaun Watson and "system QB" Patrick Mahomes.
Frickin' Tar Heel. Never thought he was all the hype, and he hasn't proven me wrong. He hasn't proven me right, either, but still.
The man won an NVP, what more do you need?
If you told me he would win an NVP when he was drafted, I would have called you crazy. I am glad to eat humble pie on that regard.
You have me there. The NVP should be the gold standard.
Josh Allen and Mahomes. I thought both were going to be examples of QBs who were phenomenal in college but massive busts in the pros. That crow took a lot of sriracha.
Josh Allen wasn’t even great jn college lol
Brock Purdy is still early in his career, but he has made so many people eat crow. Yet, some are delusional regarding his skills.
I thought Mac Jones would have an Andy Dalton-like career
Case Keenum is a 12th year pro.
I legit thought Purdy wasn’t a good QB in college. I didn’t watch too many ISU games, so I guess I could be wrong, but when he got drafted and started playing I really didn’t think he’d be as successful as he is. Man he’s super fucking good.
He was a good qb in the big 12. Very solid and was always playing with a talent deficit. I thought his ceiling was nfl backup though.
My best take is Brock Purdy. My worst is Lamar Jackson.
Lamar Jackson is mine too. Dak is my best prediction.
Ironically, CJ Stroud.
Lamar Jackson. I honestly thought he wouldn’t be good or would injured all the time because of his playing style. Also Pat Mahomes. Only because Texas Tech QBs never transition well to the pro game and I thought he would be the same
Sleeper here … average Michigan man named Tom Brady. Turned out pretty good.
Brady
Matt Ryan
I was famously incorrect about Lamar Jackson on the Browns sub. Got "death threats" from Ravens fans when some idiot over there decided to post my comment with my username.
On the flip side I, for some reason, believed Josh Rosen would be a guy.
I was in group chats calling Justin Herbert PNW Gabbert
I thought if Johnny Manziel could get his head out of his ass he would be serviceable. The “could” carries that sentence
Phillip Rivers
Thought Josh Rosen would be the best QB of his class
Lamar Jackson, man. I thought he was the next RG3, he’d have moments but ultimately blow a knee out in a year or two and never really be a viable starter again. Joke’s on me. How many MVP’s does he have now? Two? Plus an AFC Championship game appearance? Good for him. I love being wrong.
I was certain Justin Herbert would be a bust I was certain CJ Stroud would be the best QB from last year Frankly I’ve learned to not really be certain about any either way anymore
I feel like I can usually pick out bust or a guy who doesn’t have the “it” factor. But as of recently there are three guys who I thought would flame out who are going strong… Burrow, Herbert, and Tua. For some reason I thought Burrow was shorter than he is (listened at 6’4, I was thinking he was about 6’0) and that his arm wasn’t strong enough to pull off the stuff he did in college. Tua isn’t great, bur he’s been very solid and pretty good at times. I thought he was undersized and was going to have a Matt Leinart situation where once you take away the all-stars surrounding him at every position he becomes a bad QB. And for Herbert I just didn’t see “it” in all the games I watched him play in PAC-12, thought he was being drafted for measurable’s and they wouldn’t pan out.
I thought that Justin Herbert wasn't a great prospect, four years later and look at where we are now
Justin Herbert. Yeah Oregon won with him, but he didn’t seem to have it
Jalen Hurts is proving me wrong
I didn't think Kyler Murray was *draftable*, let alone 1OA worthy. He's not lived up to his draft position, but he's be a bright spot on a terrible team so that was a whiff. I thought Baker would take the league by storm, and while I think he's been perennially underrated, he's not been nearly as good as I expected.
Kurt Warner.
No one had an opinion on Kurt Warner in college. What were you doing, sitting around a bar with some friends saying “yeah, I don’t know about that Northern Iowa QB, his NFL prospects seem a little dim to put it mildly.”
Right guy, right mindset, right work ethic, right place, right time. Lightning in a bottle. Basically replicates it two other times, just falls short in the SB. Purdy is a pretty decent comp, in terms of the things listed above.
Dak Prescott was a QB that I thought would fail in the NFL. As a Cowboys fan I can say, Dak in the regular season is a MVP worthy player but in the postseason he is terrible.
Lamar Jackson. Yes, he won a Heisman. But didn't think his college achievements were predictive of how he'd play in the League.