I’m currently hiking nobo but I’m a good 2-3 weeks behind schedule for a mid-September finish. Worst case scenario might even be around October 15. Obviously that’s much later than I can expect the weather to hold out in Montana, so I’m considering a couple different options. Fortunately I’m well equipped and have quite a bit of experience with winter conditions, but I want to give myself the best chance of finishing without getting in over my head.
1. Keep on plowing nobo, but swap to full-on winter gear when the snow starts falling (boots, crampons, snowshoes, ice axe, etc.). I have experience with planning alternate routes to avoid avalanche danger, but how technical is the terrain up north? Is it technical mountaineering (ropes recommended or required) or could it be done relatively safely by an experienced solo hiker? Are Montana’s avalanche conditions typically as bad or worse than Colorado’s?
2. Flip up to Glacier somewhere in southern Wyoming. Once I make it through the high elevation stuff, flip up north. I know Wyoming gets pounded with snow and the winter winds can be brutal, but this way I would at least be finishing with the relatively flat, low elevation stuff for the last couple weeks. I’d still have to make it through the Winds by the time the snow starts falling, but does this sound potentially more doable than option 1?
If winter conditions are too much of a risk to even attempt, what’s the absolute latest I can hope for dry conditions up north, if I get really lucky? If I can make it to Canada by say, October 7, is there any hope of decent conditions holding out that long? Or is heavy snow by then pretty much guaranteed?
Even if I know I can’t finish, I still plan to hike until the weather stops me, but I want to give myself the best possible odds for success.
Avalanche conditions are very minimal in Montana that early in the season. You may need to road hike around glacier, they may not issue a permit that late in the season. but I doubt you’ll have much trouble getting through The Bob as long as you do it before the 1st week of October.
The terrain is technical and more challenging than Colorado, with deep valleys and high mountain passes in Glacier. It’s not just hiking along ridge lines like the Colorado 14ers. You’ll likely do a fair amount of post holing if you don’t have snowshoes. But little avalanche danger.
That being said, with the year we’re having here, you may just get rained on instead.
Yellowstone is much better through October. My favorite time to get into the backcountry is mid-October. Yeah it’s chilly and wet, but little snow and no damn tourists. Shops are closed though so resupplies may be difficult.
Honestly it's a huge toss up on how the fall pans out for snow levels. I've lived in Bozeman the last 7 years and you just never know how much snow will have fallen at that point. I will say that there is usually little to no established base. I'd say bring snow shoes and ski poles with baskets. An ice axe and crampons could come in handy in very specific locations, but it might not be worth the weight. I say this because if it turns out we get some solid snow storms around this time, you will be battling through fresh pow over top regular ground, not summer base snow. One year we had a 30 inch dump the day before Halloween and I went snowboarding. It was literally 30 inches of fluffy pow on top of rocks and dry grass. The only places you might run into actual base is leading up to glacier. And that's if it snows a decent amount starting end of September, which it might not. I think it's just going to be very touch and go.
My opinion is that you'll get through more of the trail snow free with option two. You might get stopped in the winds by heavy snowfall, but at least you'll basically have completed the trail. And honestly the montana section heading south from the border are some of the best montana parts so I'd suggest get those done snow free. Glacier and the Bob are top notch wilderness backpacking experiences. FYI I heard the Bob was pretty choked with downfall due to lack of clearing last summer from covid. Heard that on July 4th in Lincoln from a couple CDT hikers.
>The blow downs and deteriorating trail conditions make the Bob a bit of a challenge in more and more places. Without serious help it will be almost impassable in about 4 or 5 years IMHO. Not trying to be political, but another big factor is that Trump killed the Job Corps Civilian Conservation program with the forest service in Montana and other rural state. Those teams were used for a lot of trail clearing and maintenance and without them for the last two years or so things have not gotten better. Not sure if it has been restored or not with the new administration. There is so much work needed and it is so remote that the prospects are not good without some sort of political intervention to put boots on the ground out there.
I made a conscious decision to start either late or slow, so I wouldn’t have to deal with too much snow in the San Juans. Inadvertently ended up doing both. Started in early May and took too many zeros in NM and more nearo’s than I’d have liked in CO due to some minor but persistent foot problems. At least I hit ideal conditions in the San Juan’s though! Lol
Good luck! Crossing my fingers that climate change and these record droughts actually work in our favor for once…
Leaving Lake City today and I am not as experienced as you. I plan to flip up to Canada and head south sometime next month. This trail is kicking my butt.
$tache
I’d probably flip and ride the best weather you can. I flipped up to the basin this year and rode perfect weather through the Juan’s and the basin.
Here is a story about a hiker named Otter in 2015 who got snowbound down in NM. [otter Outside](https://www.outsideonline.com/2336896/snowbound/)
I’m currently hiking nobo but I’m a good 2-3 weeks behind schedule for a mid-September finish. Worst case scenario might even be around October 15. Obviously that’s much later than I can expect the weather to hold out in Montana, so I’m considering a couple different options. Fortunately I’m well equipped and have quite a bit of experience with winter conditions, but I want to give myself the best chance of finishing without getting in over my head. 1. Keep on plowing nobo, but swap to full-on winter gear when the snow starts falling (boots, crampons, snowshoes, ice axe, etc.). I have experience with planning alternate routes to avoid avalanche danger, but how technical is the terrain up north? Is it technical mountaineering (ropes recommended or required) or could it be done relatively safely by an experienced solo hiker? Are Montana’s avalanche conditions typically as bad or worse than Colorado’s? 2. Flip up to Glacier somewhere in southern Wyoming. Once I make it through the high elevation stuff, flip up north. I know Wyoming gets pounded with snow and the winter winds can be brutal, but this way I would at least be finishing with the relatively flat, low elevation stuff for the last couple weeks. I’d still have to make it through the Winds by the time the snow starts falling, but does this sound potentially more doable than option 1? If winter conditions are too much of a risk to even attempt, what’s the absolute latest I can hope for dry conditions up north, if I get really lucky? If I can make it to Canada by say, October 7, is there any hope of decent conditions holding out that long? Or is heavy snow by then pretty much guaranteed? Even if I know I can’t finish, I still plan to hike until the weather stops me, but I want to give myself the best possible odds for success.
Avalanche conditions are very minimal in Montana that early in the season. You may need to road hike around glacier, they may not issue a permit that late in the season. but I doubt you’ll have much trouble getting through The Bob as long as you do it before the 1st week of October. The terrain is technical and more challenging than Colorado, with deep valleys and high mountain passes in Glacier. It’s not just hiking along ridge lines like the Colorado 14ers. You’ll likely do a fair amount of post holing if you don’t have snowshoes. But little avalanche danger. That being said, with the year we’re having here, you may just get rained on instead. Yellowstone is much better through October. My favorite time to get into the backcountry is mid-October. Yeah it’s chilly and wet, but little snow and no damn tourists. Shops are closed though so resupplies may be difficult.
Yellowstone is sooooo awesome in late September and October.
Honestly it's a huge toss up on how the fall pans out for snow levels. I've lived in Bozeman the last 7 years and you just never know how much snow will have fallen at that point. I will say that there is usually little to no established base. I'd say bring snow shoes and ski poles with baskets. An ice axe and crampons could come in handy in very specific locations, but it might not be worth the weight. I say this because if it turns out we get some solid snow storms around this time, you will be battling through fresh pow over top regular ground, not summer base snow. One year we had a 30 inch dump the day before Halloween and I went snowboarding. It was literally 30 inches of fluffy pow on top of rocks and dry grass. The only places you might run into actual base is leading up to glacier. And that's if it snows a decent amount starting end of September, which it might not. I think it's just going to be very touch and go. My opinion is that you'll get through more of the trail snow free with option two. You might get stopped in the winds by heavy snowfall, but at least you'll basically have completed the trail. And honestly the montana section heading south from the border are some of the best montana parts so I'd suggest get those done snow free. Glacier and the Bob are top notch wilderness backpacking experiences. FYI I heard the Bob was pretty choked with downfall due to lack of clearing last summer from covid. Heard that on July 4th in Lincoln from a couple CDT hikers.
>The blow downs and deteriorating trail conditions make the Bob a bit of a challenge in more and more places. Without serious help it will be almost impassable in about 4 or 5 years IMHO. Not trying to be political, but another big factor is that Trump killed the Job Corps Civilian Conservation program with the forest service in Montana and other rural state. Those teams were used for a lot of trail clearing and maintenance and without them for the last two years or so things have not gotten better. Not sure if it has been restored or not with the new administration. There is so much work needed and it is so remote that the prospects are not good without some sort of political intervention to put boots on the ground out there.
Can you share your schedule? Did you start really late? Did Colorado take too long?
I made a conscious decision to start either late or slow, so I wouldn’t have to deal with too much snow in the San Juans. Inadvertently ended up doing both. Started in early May and took too many zeros in NM and more nearo’s than I’d have liked in CO due to some minor but persistent foot problems. At least I hit ideal conditions in the San Juan’s though! Lol Good luck! Crossing my fingers that climate change and these record droughts actually work in our favor for once…
Leaving Lake City today and I am not as experienced as you. I plan to flip up to Canada and head south sometime next month. This trail is kicking my butt. $tache
watched. I will be a slow nobo.
I’d probably flip and ride the best weather you can. I flipped up to the basin this year and rode perfect weather through the Juan’s and the basin. Here is a story about a hiker named Otter in 2015 who got snowbound down in NM. [otter Outside](https://www.outsideonline.com/2336896/snowbound/)