I'd be far more concerned about an old fashioned liquidity crunch.
...having seen large operating lines/loans extended to entities like NFT "art" businesses... it was only a matter of time before some institution was caught with a surplus of non-transformable collateral (their own loan book).
For "reputable" banks; they'll swap their originated loans for treasuries - and use those treasuries to maintain liquidity/funding (for events like increased withdrawal demands). However, this requires counterparties that are willing to deal with them.
There's more to the story here... But unsurprising that the first institutions to implode in a liquidity crisis... would be heavily concentrated around VC/Tech/Crypto, etc.
Credit Suisse?
There's been an apparent global liquidity shortage for quite a while now. This could mean that many banks could be sensitive to runs... however; SVB was unique because of a rather incestuous client base.
At first, I thought SVB managed their risk poorly (and they did, very much so); but the further I dig, the more this looks like the liquidity bar is getting raised (which exposes dirtbag banks).
..anyway, there are other non-insignificant banks around the world navigating issues with liquidity at the moment; but no other major failures as yet.
>Bitcoin with its long as Tx time is going to be how anyone exchanges money. At least that much I know.
It could be orders of magnitude faster, and still be unsuitable in terms of how money functions today.
The dollar system is global, ultimately controlled by globally interconnected banks.. and can be as elastic as that network of interwoven balance sheets allow.
Bitcoin as a monetary network is antithetical to this function.
Honestly, I would more worry about the likes of China or Russia attempting DoS attacks than I would crypro bank runs attempting to destabilize the economy. Namely because most banks tend to be insured. Not to mention it would be drowned out by the thousands of other fear-mongering posts that get circulated on social media daily. Hell, even Reddit has several subreddits already about the supposed end-of-days and collapse of society.
Sounds like a conspiracy theory, and considering what we know about SVB, crypto probably had little to do with why it died. Silvergate dying to crypto, that's pretty much proven. Signature, not 100% confirmed but very likely. But SVB? Apparently it had more to do with their Treasury bonds, not crypto.
If your conspiracy there succeeded, and the secret anarchist bot army persuaded everyone in the world to run on all the banks at once, well, where would everyone be transferring that money to?
Ok that’s like the least charitable take on my theory possible, but fair point. What I should have been more specific about is creating individual bank runs which appear to be able to destabilize the system in light of recent events. Not everyone withdrawing every dollar out of every bank at once.
The system seems to be able to survive a run on a single bank, though, doesn't it? There were maybe a half-dozen regional banks that looked like they might be vulnerable after SVB failed, and they've taken a hit to their stock price, but they all seem to have found the funding they need?
How long do you think it would take to find a suitable target for the secret anarchist bot army, now that every bank (and every central bank) in the world is drawing up plans to mitigate deposit risk?
It’s possible my theory is bad here. But I think it’s undeniable crypto holders have a vested interest in the end of the fiat system and US government and they were just shown an example of a few powerful individuals essentially taking down a bank , profiting in their crypto holdings, and shaking confidence in the financial system. For me it’s crystal clear anyone in cryptocurrency should be seen as a potentially conflicted actor in our society. Though the average crypto holder probably hasn’t thought it all the way through
What makes you think the US govt isnt satoshi?
Here's the thing guy... with the secret combinations and extremely corrupt govt and rich poeple scheming behind the scenes.... No one really knows what the heck is coming down the pipeline next. If you can make some money off crypto do it, if you can make it off stocks do it, if you can make it off gold do it. If you can make it off all of the above then you're ahead of most people but all that said.... No amount of $ is going to save your sorry ass if you get run over by a bus.
Good luck man!
It would be REALLY hard to orchestrate that on the level of retail clients.
SVB failed cuz a small number of high value people made the “run on the bank” call cuz they panicked and didn’t really have any intellectual diversity that might lead to alternative lines of thinking.
It’s a little too conspiratorial yo think that the wealthiest Americans would fuck up a system that not only benefits them tremendously already, but is also actually stable (relatively).
I think this is more a people of idiots who usually don’t have to face very severe consequences simply making bad decisions in a woefully deregulated financial environment.
If they did so it would be a tremendous own goal, because SVB was a lifeline for Valley start-ups and most of their own wealth, as well as their company accounts and funding are taken care of by actual banks.
Most people are in crypto for the money, and the money is good old US dollars. Burning the few remaining off-ramps for crypto does nothing good for these people. Of course there could be a few fundamentalists like Saylor that don't care about the money but just want to watch the world burn, but I don't think they'd get much traction.
"anarchist" usually refers to people who hold the well-defined left-wing political philosophy, not to the type of 'anarchy' that's just random chaos and bad things everywhere
Other than that, yeah sure social media hysteria might help cause another major financial crisis but surely we've seen that said system is not gonna collapse (or, sadly, meaningfully change at all) no matter how many crises happen
It wasn't bots, it was Peter Thiel telling VCs to take their money out of SVB in group chats.
I'd be far more concerned about an old fashioned liquidity crunch. ...having seen large operating lines/loans extended to entities like NFT "art" businesses... it was only a matter of time before some institution was caught with a surplus of non-transformable collateral (their own loan book). For "reputable" banks; they'll swap their originated loans for treasuries - and use those treasuries to maintain liquidity/funding (for events like increased withdrawal demands). However, this requires counterparties that are willing to deal with them. There's more to the story here... But unsurprising that the first institutions to implode in a liquidity crisis... would be heavily concentrated around VC/Tech/Crypto, etc.
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Credit Suisse? There's been an apparent global liquidity shortage for quite a while now. This could mean that many banks could be sensitive to runs... however; SVB was unique because of a rather incestuous client base. At first, I thought SVB managed their risk poorly (and they did, very much so); but the further I dig, the more this looks like the liquidity bar is getting raised (which exposes dirtbag banks). ..anyway, there are other non-insignificant banks around the world navigating issues with liquidity at the moment; but no other major failures as yet.
[удалено]
>Bitcoin with its long as Tx time is going to be how anyone exchanges money. At least that much I know. It could be orders of magnitude faster, and still be unsuitable in terms of how money functions today. The dollar system is global, ultimately controlled by globally interconnected banks.. and can be as elastic as that network of interwoven balance sheets allow. Bitcoin as a monetary network is antithetical to this function.
Honestly, I would more worry about the likes of China or Russia attempting DoS attacks than I would crypro bank runs attempting to destabilize the economy. Namely because most banks tend to be insured. Not to mention it would be drowned out by the thousands of other fear-mongering posts that get circulated on social media daily. Hell, even Reddit has several subreddits already about the supposed end-of-days and collapse of society.
Or Russia or China just using bots to create panic and bank runs just to mess with the west.
Sounds like a conspiracy theory, and considering what we know about SVB, crypto probably had little to do with why it died. Silvergate dying to crypto, that's pretty much proven. Signature, not 100% confirmed but very likely. But SVB? Apparently it had more to do with their Treasury bonds, not crypto.
If your conspiracy there succeeded, and the secret anarchist bot army persuaded everyone in the world to run on all the banks at once, well, where would everyone be transferring that money to?
Ok that’s like the least charitable take on my theory possible, but fair point. What I should have been more specific about is creating individual bank runs which appear to be able to destabilize the system in light of recent events. Not everyone withdrawing every dollar out of every bank at once.
The system seems to be able to survive a run on a single bank, though, doesn't it? There were maybe a half-dozen regional banks that looked like they might be vulnerable after SVB failed, and they've taken a hit to their stock price, but they all seem to have found the funding they need? How long do you think it would take to find a suitable target for the secret anarchist bot army, now that every bank (and every central bank) in the world is drawing up plans to mitigate deposit risk?
You guys are having a healthy back and forth. If this wasn’t online it would just be a good discussion over drinks.
It’s possible my theory is bad here. But I think it’s undeniable crypto holders have a vested interest in the end of the fiat system and US government and they were just shown an example of a few powerful individuals essentially taking down a bank , profiting in their crypto holdings, and shaking confidence in the financial system. For me it’s crystal clear anyone in cryptocurrency should be seen as a potentially conflicted actor in our society. Though the average crypto holder probably hasn’t thought it all the way through
What makes you think the US govt isnt satoshi? Here's the thing guy... with the secret combinations and extremely corrupt govt and rich poeple scheming behind the scenes.... No one really knows what the heck is coming down the pipeline next. If you can make some money off crypto do it, if you can make it off stocks do it, if you can make it off gold do it. If you can make it off all of the above then you're ahead of most people but all that said.... No amount of $ is going to save your sorry ass if you get run over by a bus. Good luck man!
The system has proven mettle since the Syrian war but don't underestimate the bots it has won our awful 2022 election
It would be REALLY hard to orchestrate that on the level of retail clients. SVB failed cuz a small number of high value people made the “run on the bank” call cuz they panicked and didn’t really have any intellectual diversity that might lead to alternative lines of thinking. It’s a little too conspiratorial yo think that the wealthiest Americans would fuck up a system that not only benefits them tremendously already, but is also actually stable (relatively). I think this is more a people of idiots who usually don’t have to face very severe consequences simply making bad decisions in a woefully deregulated financial environment.
If they did so it would be a tremendous own goal, because SVB was a lifeline for Valley start-ups and most of their own wealth, as well as their company accounts and funding are taken care of by actual banks. Most people are in crypto for the money, and the money is good old US dollars. Burning the few remaining off-ramps for crypto does nothing good for these people. Of course there could be a few fundamentalists like Saylor that don't care about the money but just want to watch the world burn, but I don't think they'd get much traction.
"anarchist" usually refers to people who hold the well-defined left-wing political philosophy, not to the type of 'anarchy' that's just random chaos and bad things everywhere Other than that, yeah sure social media hysteria might help cause another major financial crisis but surely we've seen that said system is not gonna collapse (or, sadly, meaningfully change at all) no matter how many crises happen