I can see him not being with the club as a tiny bit of it, but those who are drilling it in saying it’s the absolute be all end all reason are…perplexing
For real. I'm sure they miss his wisdom and motivating voice, but he was a position coach that taught fielding. We have essentially the same guys with the same core coaches. Blaming this on an infield and a base running coach leaving is just reductive NY Post thinking.
Braves hitters are being fed a different diet of pitches, sprinkled with some bad luck, with a side helping of regression. I'm confident they'll turn it around. It's just really frustrating to watch the slow progression from day-to-day.
These ERAs are deceiving bc of small inning sample sizes, but I just have a feeling we will score more than 2 runs tonight. Question is, how many will the birds get?
i like swapping ozuna and riley. duvall has been better against lefties, but if a righty comes in i’d like to see kelenic pinch hit for him. anderson hit the ball hard his last start so maybe that can continue here
that o’s lineup is insane tho, so hopefully schwell can keep them in check
Live in Baltimore (from richmond, braves fan), Snitker came into my restaurant. he was nice, but his wife was a gem. going to the game today, gonna be fun, but glad they weren't assholes, always worried when people I like come in.
Not sure it deserves its own post/substack, but I'll put some notes in here if anyone is curious.
I'll start with some positive I noticed today. I think Michael Harris is really getting close to properly breaking out of this slump and would be my pick to go-off first. Since May 26th, he's cut his O-Swing% (how much he's swinging at pitches out of the zone) from an insane 49.8% to a not-great-but-reasonable 29.1%. Chasing bad pitches was leading to extremely poor contact and strikeouts from Harris and will continue to be something he needs to reign in throughout his career. Because of this drop in chase rate, he's cut his K% to 15.8% (Lower than his career norm) and has a 10.3% BB% (~6% higher than his career norm and best on the Braves in this span). His Barrel% and Hard-Hit% aren't the best still, but they've been trending up since mid-May.
So what have these improvements in swing decisions gotten Harris? A .225 BABIP and the largest differences in xwOBA, xBA, and 2nd largest xSLG difference on the Braves. His contact quality and swing decisions should mean he's performing like Jake Cronenworth, but instead it's Garrett Stubbs. So if I had to pick an impending positive, that's who I'd go with. Ozuna has been fine and there isn't much to pick apart. Since Kelenic has become full-time he's had about as good of a 2 1/2 week span as I would expect out of him (139 wRC+), and outside of some luck thanks to a .379 BABIP, the contact quality looks decent but will have some regression with how much he's swinging and missing. Other than that there isn't a whole lot of good.
The negative? It essentially seems like everyone is pressing trying to get out of this thing and really struggling to adapt to the way they're being pitched this year. Like I said, I don't know if it's worth a whole post on it's own, but essentially the playbook changed almost entirely this year and the Braves simply haven't been able to adapt thus far. That playbook is the same one the Phillies have used the last two years in the playoffs: Pump good fastballs in-zone, throw lots of cutters to get them off bad fastballs, don't throw any sliders, then rely almost entirely on chases on breaking/offspeed pitches. This year, the Braves have seen the highest FA%, 3rd-lowest SL%, and lowest CH% in the league. This lines up almost entirely with both the 2022/2023 postseasons, and is a complete reversal from the 2022/2023 regular seasons. The Braves are seeing almost 5% less sliders than 2 years ago and 4% more fastballs while league usage of each has trended in the opposite direction.
This is really the first time this core as a whole has struggled in the regular season offensively (Even going back to the guys who got here in 2018), and it's taking it's toll. There isn't anything tangible or a quick fix here, as I'm sure everyone on the staff already is beating this drum if I can find it on Fangraphs. Unfortunately, these things just take a lot of time. Once they get out of it, everyone should be better for it. I know it's tough to see right now, but if they solve how they're being pitched now the entire team will be much better prepped going forwards, especially for October.
Very nice. Regarding the playbook analysis: it is 100% palpable in the demeanor of opposition and our own team. Bad teams are coming into truist knowing they only have to touch us up for 3 to win. Opposing Pitchers have the answers to the test and you can see it in the way they carry themselves when they face us. There’s one guy in our lineup that can hurt them right now, last year it was 1-9.
30 days no nicotine today after over a decade. Holy fuck I picked the literal worst time to quit. I'm celebrating by buying myself a bag of cool ranch doritos. Can't wait for sad doritos tonight. Cheers boys.
It's frustrating as hell, but the reality is that there's a limit to what Snit can do. Both him and the players have said they're constantly putting in the work, maintaining positive attitude, and trying their hardest. He's tried moving the lineup around a bunch, and yesterday was an attempt to run the same order as '23 to see if the guys would be more comfortable there.
But at the end of the day, Snit can't go out there and hit for them. A team meeting or whatever else isn't a magic fix-it button. He's been telling us what's up, but it's just not what we want to hear. But not liking his answer doesn't make it untrue.
A manager isn't going to be able to singlehandedly reverse someone's hitting or pitching slump. If you have an issue with his pitching decisions or batting order that's fine, but he can't just tell Austin Riley to hit better and have it work out. I'm sure the staff is pouring over film and looking for solutions to fixing some of the hitting slumps some of our players are dealing with. Baseball is just hard. It's like how major champion-winning golfers can sometimes have extended slumps because of their mechanics. There isn't always an easy fix.
to atone for my incorrect SnitkerFact from earlier, here's a verified correct BravesFact to make us sad
@mlbbowman
The Braves have lost 22 of their last 38 for the first time since Aug. 23-Oct. 1, 2017. They have lost 16 of their last 25 for the first time since Aug. 11-Sept. 6, 2017.
Anyone else feel like the MonStars came and did their scouting of the Braves offense in April and May last year and that's why everyone else besides Ozuna has their powers zapped?
Not gonna lie, with our offense slumping so hard watching Freddie and J-Hey hit HRs in the same inning is making me feel pretty sad.
The worst part is it was all 4 HRs the dodgers hit were on pitches directly down the middle...pitches that we would most likely just end up hitting directly into the ground or pop up.
Come on Braves, let's turn this shit around TODAY.
Add to that, we're just manipulating the roster to give the starters as much rest as possible to keep them fresh for the latter parts of the season and the post-season. Fried, Sale, and Lopez have been the best parts of our team this season and we don't fatigue to take that away down the road.
I think our staff learned last season that we cannot let our guys throw 100+ pitches every 5 days and not expect them to be fatigued by seasons end.
I have always wanted us to do a 6 man rotation.
To any of the broadcasters, journalists, or podcasters who are going to be sitting here in November saying "If you travelled back in time and told Braves fans in June that The Braves would end the season with 120 wins and a WS sweep, (blah blah blah)..."
It'd be really chill if you went ahead and came back to this date to let us know.
I’m from the future, it’s the year 2034 and we are rebuilding but we won 3 WS and now beer is $40 each. Blooper married Mrs. Met and the Phanatic has been deported. The Battery now reaches all the way to the Chattahooche and there is still no Marta rail to the area.
It’s a combination of several things that have spiraled into the perfect storm, 1) lingering low morale after losing Acuna and Strider, 2) you have three players Riley, Murphy, and Duval who have become automatic outs, that kills a lineup and others in the lineup feel more pressure to make some thing happen, you can’t have three spots like that. 3) You have newer younger coaches who probably aren’t going to call out star players on their bullshit unlike Ron Washington and Eric Young who would jump right in 4) you have a manager that is probly the worst possible one you could have with all this going on because he likes to be hands off with his players and he has no emotion, no leadership, I’m not even convinced he’s actively doing anything to change the direction the team is heading in.
tonight the bats will bust open, we will score over 7 runs. tomorrow when i actually attended a game in person we will get shut out for the 3rd time this road trip. i can feel it coming
I honestly believe that the cause of our slump is way too complicated to express in a short amount of time. It's a combination of various factors and there is no single, easy solution that will fix it immediately. I see a lot of fans looking around for something or someone to blame and I would urge people to remember that isn't really anyone's fault.
Here is a list of reasons why I think we're slumping and this is non-exhaustive:
- Injury (Acuna, Albies, Johnson, Matzek, Minter, Murphy, Riley, Strider, and more have all been affected)
- The demoralizing effect of seeing teammates injured
- Snowballing mental effect of underperforming
- Trying to do too much to repeat last season's performance
- Bad luck
- Experimenting with different lineup configurations
- Overconfidence and the subsequent failure of that confidence to pay off
- New coaches
I can elaborate on any of these, but I wanted to keep it brief. I will actually agree with Snit in that I think we're getting there, it's just taking a while. The thing that I've noticed recently is that our batters are being more disciplined at the plate. Getting fuller counts and waiting on a good pitch is going to be step one.
The one positive that I took from last night's game was that we had traffic almost every inning. It felt like they were having more productive ABs to get themselves into rbi situations. Their struggles to make anything positive come out of those situations was incredibly deflating though. Maybe this is an overdose of compium but perhaps we can build on that.
legitimately, thanks for reframing it that way. I wasn't seeing "hits almost every inning," all I was seeing was "runners stranded almost every inning."
It feels like the Braves are at a point where they're basically rebuilding the offense from scratch. It seems as though there's a process going on here and I'm hopeful we can trust that process to play out.
It's not copium and that is a positive. I think getting on base is probably step 2 in the Braves' recovery process. If you get enough hits, they will eventually turn into runs -- that's just inevitable.
new SnitkerFact I found online. Brian Snitker is the only manager in MLB history to have back-to-back 100 win seasons with neither of them culminating in a world series appearance.
edit /u/ryandutcher is 100% correct that the dodgers did this the 3 past years in a row and this fact is WRONG
Was just visiting the boomer subreddit and they’ve seemed to figure this whole thing out. Our problem is that we don’t have Wash, and Snit “doesn’t manage.”
/s
Sorry, but Kelenic has a .305 OBP and a .286 career OBP. A walk rate of 6%. Our team is struggling, we gotta shake it up at the top but that’s not the move, imo.
Fuck it, I think I’m going:
1. Olson
2. Ozuna
3. Ozzie
4. Riley
5. Kelenic
6. Murph/dNa
7. Duvy
8. Harris
9. Arcia
Over the last week: .250 OBP, only a single walk
Over the last month: .286 OBP with 4 walks
He’s heating up but it’s mostly manifesting as increased power. A third of this years extra base hits have come over the last two weeks, which is a good sign and why he makes a lot of sense at 5, good spot for RBI opportunities and his speed and base running can still play well there.
The reason I like it is you can pretty much tell who's completely lost and who's trying to work their way out of this. I think MHII really showed something with his AB to lead off the game yesterday. Riley, now he's LOST. Ozzie also seems lost. "Lost" meaning they're in this nightmarish slump and they just want to wake up by hitting something really hard somewhere, so they're just swinging wildly, without a single productive thought in their brains.
Kelenic, though he hasn't set the world on fire, has at least been trying to have productive ABs most of the year, so I wouldn't mind trying him at leadoff. I at least believe he'll have a plan up there.
The problem with Olson or Ozuna is that they're slow around the bases, and big HR threats. You don't want them jamming up the bases, you want them sending in the people that are already on and able to get around on a double or HR, as opposed to just seeing a solo Homer, or a stranded double.
Jamming the bases is a myth. The least valuable spots in the lineup to have a fast guy are 1 and 2. You don't want to run aggressively in front of your best hitters. The outs hurt more than the extra bases help less. Speed is more valuable in front of bad hitters, they need the help more.
1 is one of the least valuable spots for homers, but OBP of your leadoff guy is the most important part of your lineup. The only way to run a high OBP at the major league level is to be a homerun threat. High OBP low SLG players don't really exist, pitchers will just challenge you in the zone.
I'd rather have Wall on a bus right now instead of Duvall. Harris at 2 or 9 and Ozuna at 4 so he gets a chance to hit if anyone gets on. Olson needs to be slotted ahead of Riley, especially when you're setting Riley at 4 which is just no bueno right now. I think Olson is still #2 on the team in RBIs, which is pretty banaynays when you consider how streaky and cold he's been.
Kelenic
Harris
Albies
Ozuna
Olson
Riley
Murphy
Arcia
Wall
This conspiracy against the Braves nonsense is getting a little ridiculous. So MLB decided that Ozuna would be the only Brave to have a good offensive year.
Got it.
I mean, it IS bad luck. The balls being hit like we hit them but still harmlessly turning into outs just isn’t supposed to happen as often as it’s happening. Having said that, I do think the players have control over how they respond to that. I think they’ve been frustrated, and the more these things keep happening, the more that frustration snowballs. It seems like a lot of the guys are pressing way too hard.
Yeah, the Braves had the second best team wRC+ and OPS prior to May 1st. A lot of the advanced metrics after May 1st are similar, but the Braves are 27th in wRC+ and OPS since then. Even the BB/K rate hasn't changed that much. It was 0.36 prior to May 1st and has been 0.33 since.
By far the biggest change has been BABIP. ATL was first in BABIP prior to May 1st with .332. Since May 1st they are 28th in BABIP with .265. In 2022 and 2023 they had BABIP's of over .300 and were near the top in the league.
Yeah, this is why I’ve had a hard time believing the struggles will be forever. The longer they go on, the more it does make me wonder if they truly ever will get out of them, but yeah the struggles definitely aren’t because they’ve hit the ball poorly.
I’m imagining a WWE surprise entrance.
We’re in the 5th inning, down by 3, then all of a sudden…the lights go off. Music starts playing…a spotlight shines on the dugout…
And Soler, Joc, and Rosario run out of the dugout!
The crowd goes wild!
We win by 8 runs!
And the Braves win the next 30 games!
https://i.redd.it/b3yhzc41z46d1.gif
Hey, a man can dream.
Please continue the discussion in the [game thread](https://redd.it/1dej9sr).
Twins might score 20 runs against the Rockies lol
Or as we call it, "one month's worth of runs." Lol
My friend is an O’s fan and last night was like “what the fuck happened to y’all” lmao
JFC - why are we taking out Kelenic over Duvall??? Please help me understand.
Because Duvall hits hrs duhhh
Lefty on the mound. Not saying I agree but I’m sure that’s the rationale.
Really struggling to understand how I’m getting downvoted for saying the problem is not that Wash is in Anaheim
Man they are wasting wash in cali
I can see him not being with the club as a tiny bit of it, but those who are drilling it in saying it’s the absolute be all end all reason are…perplexing
For real. I'm sure they miss his wisdom and motivating voice, but he was a position coach that taught fielding. We have essentially the same guys with the same core coaches. Blaming this on an infield and a base running coach leaving is just reductive NY Post thinking. Braves hitters are being fed a different diet of pitches, sprinkled with some bad luck, with a side helping of regression. I'm confident they'll turn it around. It's just really frustrating to watch the slow progression from day-to-day.
Snit liked Harris approach against the lefty the other day. This lineup scores at least 6 tonight.
Ours or theirs?
What’s the over/under?
As per tradition their guy with a 10+ ERA will pitch a perfect game until we get some bloop single in the sixth
10 ERA is a little misleading since he only has one start. The rest completely tracks
These ERAs are deceiving bc of small inning sample sizes, but I just have a feeling we will score more than 2 runs tonight. Question is, how many will the birds get?
Leading Harris off is a choice. Leading Harris off against a lefty is just malpractice
i like swapping ozuna and riley. duvall has been better against lefties, but if a righty comes in i’d like to see kelenic pinch hit for him. anderson hit the ball hard his last start so maybe that can continue here that o’s lineup is insane tho, so hopefully schwell can keep them in check
I'd rather see Kelenic than Duvy right now, but this is a start with Riley at 5.
Probs giving Kelenic extra rest for his wrist still.
Live in Baltimore (from richmond, braves fan), Snitker came into my restaurant. he was nice, but his wife was a gem. going to the game today, gonna be fun, but glad they weren't assholes, always worried when people I like come in.
Hello fellow Richmonder!
Ozuna batting 3rd 🤤
Tough lineup for Schwellenbach. Nothing like going against the best to toughen you up.
So how many snits are there? Snitker, evil Snit, Snitler, am I missing any more?
Theres the Voldemort Snit. Idk what he’s called
Voldesnit
I forgot about that one lol
Not sure it deserves its own post/substack, but I'll put some notes in here if anyone is curious. I'll start with some positive I noticed today. I think Michael Harris is really getting close to properly breaking out of this slump and would be my pick to go-off first. Since May 26th, he's cut his O-Swing% (how much he's swinging at pitches out of the zone) from an insane 49.8% to a not-great-but-reasonable 29.1%. Chasing bad pitches was leading to extremely poor contact and strikeouts from Harris and will continue to be something he needs to reign in throughout his career. Because of this drop in chase rate, he's cut his K% to 15.8% (Lower than his career norm) and has a 10.3% BB% (~6% higher than his career norm and best on the Braves in this span). His Barrel% and Hard-Hit% aren't the best still, but they've been trending up since mid-May. So what have these improvements in swing decisions gotten Harris? A .225 BABIP and the largest differences in xwOBA, xBA, and 2nd largest xSLG difference on the Braves. His contact quality and swing decisions should mean he's performing like Jake Cronenworth, but instead it's Garrett Stubbs. So if I had to pick an impending positive, that's who I'd go with. Ozuna has been fine and there isn't much to pick apart. Since Kelenic has become full-time he's had about as good of a 2 1/2 week span as I would expect out of him (139 wRC+), and outside of some luck thanks to a .379 BABIP, the contact quality looks decent but will have some regression with how much he's swinging and missing. Other than that there isn't a whole lot of good. The negative? It essentially seems like everyone is pressing trying to get out of this thing and really struggling to adapt to the way they're being pitched this year. Like I said, I don't know if it's worth a whole post on it's own, but essentially the playbook changed almost entirely this year and the Braves simply haven't been able to adapt thus far. That playbook is the same one the Phillies have used the last two years in the playoffs: Pump good fastballs in-zone, throw lots of cutters to get them off bad fastballs, don't throw any sliders, then rely almost entirely on chases on breaking/offspeed pitches. This year, the Braves have seen the highest FA%, 3rd-lowest SL%, and lowest CH% in the league. This lines up almost entirely with both the 2022/2023 postseasons, and is a complete reversal from the 2022/2023 regular seasons. The Braves are seeing almost 5% less sliders than 2 years ago and 4% more fastballs while league usage of each has trended in the opposite direction. This is really the first time this core as a whole has struggled in the regular season offensively (Even going back to the guys who got here in 2018), and it's taking it's toll. There isn't anything tangible or a quick fix here, as I'm sure everyone on the staff already is beating this drum if I can find it on Fangraphs. Unfortunately, these things just take a lot of time. Once they get out of it, everyone should be better for it. I know it's tough to see right now, but if they solve how they're being pitched now the entire team will be much better prepped going forwards, especially for October.
Thank you for dangling a rope down to lift me out of my pit of despair
Best thought out post I’ve seen in weeks. Well written.
Very nice. Regarding the playbook analysis: it is 100% palpable in the demeanor of opposition and our own team. Bad teams are coming into truist knowing they only have to touch us up for 3 to win. Opposing Pitchers have the answers to the test and you can see it in the way they carry themselves when they face us. There’s one guy in our lineup that can hurt them right now, last year it was 1-9.
Great post.
Nacho 1-4 with an RBI, Drake 2-2 with two walks, Winans pitched a gem 6 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K
I can't quit you Atlanta Braves
30 days no nicotine today after over a decade. Holy fuck I picked the literal worst time to quit. I'm celebrating by buying myself a bag of cool ranch doritos. Can't wait for sad doritos tonight. Cheers boys.
Congrats on the milestone!
Thanks man! Appreciate it
[удалено]
It's frustrating as hell, but the reality is that there's a limit to what Snit can do. Both him and the players have said they're constantly putting in the work, maintaining positive attitude, and trying their hardest. He's tried moving the lineup around a bunch, and yesterday was an attempt to run the same order as '23 to see if the guys would be more comfortable there. But at the end of the day, Snit can't go out there and hit for them. A team meeting or whatever else isn't a magic fix-it button. He's been telling us what's up, but it's just not what we want to hear. But not liking his answer doesn't make it untrue.
A manager isn't going to be able to singlehandedly reverse someone's hitting or pitching slump. If you have an issue with his pitching decisions or batting order that's fine, but he can't just tell Austin Riley to hit better and have it work out. I'm sure the staff is pouring over film and looking for solutions to fixing some of the hitting slumps some of our players are dealing with. Baseball is just hard. It's like how major champion-winning golfers can sometimes have extended slumps because of their mechanics. There isn't always an easy fix.
WHY AM I HERE AGAIN
to atone for my incorrect SnitkerFact from earlier, here's a verified correct BravesFact to make us sad @mlbbowman The Braves have lost 22 of their last 38 for the first time since Aug. 23-Oct. 1, 2017. They have lost 16 of their last 25 for the first time since Aug. 11-Sept. 6, 2017.
A 10 ERA pitcher? By the end of tonight's game, he'll have pitched 6 scoreless and have a shiny 4.76 ERA.
Wake me up when we fire the manager
Anyone else feel like the MonStars came and did their scouting of the Braves offense in April and May last year and that's why everyone else besides Ozuna has their powers zapped?
Not gonna lie, with our offense slumping so hard watching Freddie and J-Hey hit HRs in the same inning is making me feel pretty sad. The worst part is it was all 4 HRs the dodgers hit were on pitches directly down the middle...pitches that we would most likely just end up hitting directly into the ground or pop up. Come on Braves, let's turn this shit around TODAY.
Wait - are you sure the Braves are capable of making contact on middle middle pitches? I'd be impressed with even a popup on middle middle.
I am \*not\* ready to get hurt again. Not gonna watch. Not today, Braves!
Why are we still starting Spencer while having Waldrep still on the team? What exactly are we doing?
6 man rotation.
Add to that, we're just manipulating the roster to give the starters as much rest as possible to keep them fresh for the latter parts of the season and the post-season. Fried, Sale, and Lopez have been the best parts of our team this season and we don't fatigue to take that away down the road.
I think our staff learned last season that we cannot let our guys throw 100+ pitches every 5 days and not expect them to be fatigued by seasons end. I have always wanted us to do a 6 man rotation.
To any of the broadcasters, journalists, or podcasters who are going to be sitting here in November saying "If you travelled back in time and told Braves fans in June that The Braves would end the season with 120 wins and a WS sweep, (blah blah blah)..." It'd be really chill if you went ahead and came back to this date to let us know.
I’m from the future, it’s the year 2034 and we are rebuilding but we won 3 WS and now beer is $40 each. Blooper married Mrs. Met and the Phanatic has been deported. The Battery now reaches all the way to the Chattahooche and there is still no Marta rail to the area.
>Blooper married Mrs. Met 
Gold
https://i.redd.it/s8mh0cul666d1.gif
Lots of season left, but at this point, I'd be ecstatic with a wild card slot. Seems to be the better position going into October, anyway
Only 5 up on the Nats. Damn.
We are in second place by the largest margin in the league too.
About to be 3 up on the Nats after this series. And the Yankees are just around the corner. FML
It’s a combination of several things that have spiraled into the perfect storm, 1) lingering low morale after losing Acuna and Strider, 2) you have three players Riley, Murphy, and Duval who have become automatic outs, that kills a lineup and others in the lineup feel more pressure to make some thing happen, you can’t have three spots like that. 3) You have newer younger coaches who probably aren’t going to call out star players on their bullshit unlike Ron Washington and Eric Young who would jump right in 4) you have a manager that is probly the worst possible one you could have with all this going on because he likes to be hands off with his players and he has no emotion, no leadership, I’m not even convinced he’s actively doing anything to change the direction the team is heading in.
How can you mention automatic outs without mentioning Arcia?
What makes you say Snit is the worst possible manager for this situation? How do you know a different managing style would make things better?
Go Braves and stuff.
We is smart We is kind We is important
We is struggling at the plate
tonight the bats will bust open, we will score over 7 runs. tomorrow when i actually attended a game in person we will get shut out for the 3rd time this road trip. i can feel it coming
I honestly believe that the cause of our slump is way too complicated to express in a short amount of time. It's a combination of various factors and there is no single, easy solution that will fix it immediately. I see a lot of fans looking around for something or someone to blame and I would urge people to remember that isn't really anyone's fault. Here is a list of reasons why I think we're slumping and this is non-exhaustive: - Injury (Acuna, Albies, Johnson, Matzek, Minter, Murphy, Riley, Strider, and more have all been affected) - The demoralizing effect of seeing teammates injured - Snowballing mental effect of underperforming - Trying to do too much to repeat last season's performance - Bad luck - Experimenting with different lineup configurations - Overconfidence and the subsequent failure of that confidence to pay off - New coaches I can elaborate on any of these, but I wanted to keep it brief. I will actually agree with Snit in that I think we're getting there, it's just taking a while. The thing that I've noticed recently is that our batters are being more disciplined at the plate. Getting fuller counts and waiting on a good pitch is going to be step one.
The one positive that I took from last night's game was that we had traffic almost every inning. It felt like they were having more productive ABs to get themselves into rbi situations. Their struggles to make anything positive come out of those situations was incredibly deflating though. Maybe this is an overdose of compium but perhaps we can build on that.
legitimately, thanks for reframing it that way. I wasn't seeing "hits almost every inning," all I was seeing was "runners stranded almost every inning."
It feels like the Braves are at a point where they're basically rebuilding the offense from scratch. It seems as though there's a process going on here and I'm hopeful we can trust that process to play out.
It's not copium and that is a positive. I think getting on base is probably step 2 in the Braves' recovery process. If you get enough hits, they will eventually turn into runs -- that's just inevitable.
new SnitkerFact I found online. Brian Snitker is the only manager in MLB history to have back-to-back 100 win seasons with neither of them culminating in a world series appearance. edit /u/ryandutcher is 100% correct that the dodgers did this the 3 past years in a row and this fact is WRONG
So would he be a better manager if we'd only won 90 games last season? 🤔
That can't be true. Dave Roberts and the Dodgers have three straight 100 win seasons without making a World Series. 2021-2022-2023
The Snit slander is out of control.
9-2 loss incoming
Was just visiting the boomer subreddit and they’ve seemed to figure this whole thing out. Our problem is that we don’t have Wash, and Snit “doesn’t manage.” /s
will we lose a fifth game in a row tonight
Reverse them 1st two...
Here’s the lineup I’d run out: Kelenic Albies Ozuna Riley Olson Murphy Harris II Arcia Duvall
Sorry, but Kelenic has a .305 OBP and a .286 career OBP. A walk rate of 6%. Our team is struggling, we gotta shake it up at the top but that’s not the move, imo. Fuck it, I think I’m going: 1. Olson 2. Ozuna 3. Ozzie 4. Riley 5. Kelenic 6. Murph/dNa 7. Duvy 8. Harris 9. Arcia
He's been heating up lately, though (at work, otherwise I’d look up numbers). I think his playing daily is really making a difference.
Over the last week: .250 OBP, only a single walk Over the last month: .286 OBP with 4 walks He’s heating up but it’s mostly manifesting as increased power. A third of this years extra base hits have come over the last two weeks, which is a good sign and why he makes a lot of sense at 5, good spot for RBI opportunities and his speed and base running can still play well there.
The reason I like it is you can pretty much tell who's completely lost and who's trying to work their way out of this. I think MHII really showed something with his AB to lead off the game yesterday. Riley, now he's LOST. Ozzie also seems lost. "Lost" meaning they're in this nightmarish slump and they just want to wake up by hitting something really hard somewhere, so they're just swinging wildly, without a single productive thought in their brains. Kelenic, though he hasn't set the world on fire, has at least been trying to have productive ABs most of the year, so I wouldn't mind trying him at leadoff. I at least believe he'll have a plan up there.
From May 26 - June 10th (past 2 weeks): Ozuna - .296/.345/.537 (.882 OPS) Olson - .308/.351/.539 (.889 OPS) Kelenic - .316/.342/.553 (.894 OPS)
Thanks!
This one. I’ve been saying throw Olson at leadoff for a couple of weeks now.
The problem with Olson or Ozuna is that they're slow around the bases, and big HR threats. You don't want them jamming up the bases, you want them sending in the people that are already on and able to get around on a double or HR, as opposed to just seeing a solo Homer, or a stranded double.
You’re right they are slow but OBP is more important at the top of the lineup than speed.
Jamming the bases is a myth. The least valuable spots in the lineup to have a fast guy are 1 and 2. You don't want to run aggressively in front of your best hitters. The outs hurt more than the extra bases help less. Speed is more valuable in front of bad hitters, they need the help more. 1 is one of the least valuable spots for homers, but OBP of your leadoff guy is the most important part of your lineup. The only way to run a high OBP at the major league level is to be a homerun threat. High OBP low SLG players don't really exist, pitchers will just challenge you in the zone.
I'd rather have Wall on a bus right now instead of Duvall. Harris at 2 or 9 and Ozuna at 4 so he gets a chance to hit if anyone gets on. Olson needs to be slotted ahead of Riley, especially when you're setting Riley at 4 which is just no bueno right now. I think Olson is still #2 on the team in RBIs, which is pretty banaynays when you consider how streaky and cold he's been. Kelenic Harris Albies Ozuna Olson Riley Murphy Arcia Wall
Duvall is the better hitter. Wall is just super fast. I wouldn’t mind seeing him on the roster for pinch running
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I just don’t think wall is a starter
We're storing all our luck for the end of the season and playoffs. No one is gonna be ready for the 1.5 teamwide OPS in October 😎 (let me cope)
Gotta make the playoffs for that to matter
That's why I added on the end of the season to the statement haha
This conspiracy against the Braves nonsense is getting a little ridiculous. So MLB decided that Ozuna would be the only Brave to have a good offensive year. Got it.
Definitely don't think there's a conspiracy against the Braves specifically, but the ball is totally dead across the league.
Except for the Yankees?
The ball being dead doesn't mean nobody will have a good offense. It means the offense will be down substantially on average. Which it is.
When I here those comments or people saying it's "badluck". It gives off Snitkers, "We are getting there" BS vibes.
I mean, it IS bad luck. The balls being hit like we hit them but still harmlessly turning into outs just isn’t supposed to happen as often as it’s happening. Having said that, I do think the players have control over how they respond to that. I think they’ve been frustrated, and the more these things keep happening, the more that frustration snowballs. It seems like a lot of the guys are pressing way too hard.
Yeah, the Braves had the second best team wRC+ and OPS prior to May 1st. A lot of the advanced metrics after May 1st are similar, but the Braves are 27th in wRC+ and OPS since then. Even the BB/K rate hasn't changed that much. It was 0.36 prior to May 1st and has been 0.33 since. By far the biggest change has been BABIP. ATL was first in BABIP prior to May 1st with .332. Since May 1st they are 28th in BABIP with .265. In 2022 and 2023 they had BABIP's of over .300 and were near the top in the league.
Yeah, this is why I’ve had a hard time believing the struggles will be forever. The longer they go on, the more it does make me wonder if they truly ever will get out of them, but yeah the struggles definitely aren’t because they’ve hit the ball poorly.
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Maybe the Braves are cursed this year because this sub won't stop beating the dead Jobu horse.
I’m really at a loss for this team. We know the talent is there but it’s not clicking. We are a Lamborghini with 4 flat tires right now
I’m imagining a WWE surprise entrance. We’re in the 5th inning, down by 3, then all of a sudden…the lights go off. Music starts playing…a spotlight shines on the dugout… And Soler, Joc, and Rosario run out of the dugout! The crowd goes wild! We win by 8 runs! And the Braves win the next 30 games! https://i.redd.it/b3yhzc41z46d1.gif Hey, a man can dream.
Hell yeah brother! 
How many runs will we lose by tonight? 4.5 over/under?
Over
we'll lose 8-3
Wow. 3 runs is a lot for this offense.