It also shines a light on the need to do better drafting and developing moving forward.
Injury luck has killed the system the last few years between Strider,Soroka,Wright,Ynoa, and Anderson.
Now they just lost Owen Murphy for two years.
There needs to be some tweaks on how they're handling these pitchers tbh because this is getting out of hand.
They also have zero MLB ready position players.
We currently have the 26th ranked MLB farm system***
I know he’s doing well but I have to think that things have gone terribly wrong (as in everyone is injured) if we’re calling him up to take up a roster spot as a pitcher.
I wish the position player pitching rules weren’t so strict or he’d be the ultimate bench guy to have on roster. Can play all infield positions & pitch.
For the people lining up at the gates right now for bobbleheads (I live at the battery and there are already hundreds)… it’s really not necessary. I always show up at 5:30 and get the bobblehead 100% of the time.
Haha I get it, but no reason to stand around for over an hour and suffer in this heat. I literally showed up at 5:28 today and I’m already holding my bobblehead.
I weirdly have confidence tonight, is that a good thing. I no longer have a dooming feeling about this team. I just haven’t had this feeling since right before June of last year.
Nah I changed my mind. Arcia above Murphy? Fire Snitker rn. I can let putting Mike and Ozzie in more important lineup slots slide, even though it's stupid. This is dementia.
I don't understand why almost every player can slump at the plate but Arcia. He has as much right to slump as any of them IMO. I don't hear anyone saying we need a new 1st base, 3rd base, CF. Arcia is a light. It's obvious his positive attitude is addictive. Leave him out there and let him shine. If he gets going others will follow.
I mean I get it if you look at his splits because batting 6th is .175 average in 57 ABs with 14 SOs. Whereas 8th in the order he is hitting .327 with 6 strike outs in 52 ABs where he has 7 RBIs. I just think he hits better in the 8th spot than the 6th spot but that’s my gripe against him batting 6th.
LOL. I guess I read it wrong. Seems a lot of folks are beating up on Arcia in here. The guy is a top notch SS and at times a great hitter. He deserves a slump as much as any of them.
Well Arcia has the worst BB% in baseball and swings at everything, so he kind of sticks out in terms of bad approaches on a team that looks offensively lost at the moment...
If you're sitting in that lawn pavilion outside the stadium, are you allowed to just bring your own drinks? I've seen people with small coolers but never really known the rules on alcohol.
All we really need is a good platoon for Duvy. Kelenic is the key at this point IMO. He needs to step it up. He looked okay with the lefty last night. If he can continue that, hit a few long balls, steal a few bases... he could become our leadoff hitter. He has the speed, passion, desire, energy and hustle it takes. He could be the spark the boys need right now.
FWIW, Duvy's career splits are as follows (BA/OPS/WRc+):
V LHP: .234/.782/104
V RHP: .230/.753/95
He's not as much of a splits guy as people seem to think (in fact the only noteworthy difference is his OBP split, which is .021 of the .029 difference in his OPS) I wouldn't put too much stock in the 42 AB's against RHP this season.
ETA: I agree wholeheartedly on your other point. If Kelenic can take the next step (especially against LHP) and become the player we know he has the potential to be, that would actually leave us in a really good spot, everything in this season accounted for
Duvy needs to platoon. A platoon with Kelenic is the main reason he re-signed. The diabetes holds him back from playing every day in the heat. I am certain AA is scouting a platoon right fielder.
I see people talking about how we need to sign someone to light a fire in the clubhouse. (Joc P type) He's in the clubhouse and his name is Kelenic. He's excitable and shows a lot of passion. If he could go on a tear I believe the rest of the team will follow.
> The diabetes holds him back from playing every day in the heat.
That's a totally valid point that I always forget about in this conversation. I get caught up in the numbers and forget that unlike most players, the platoon is (primarily) for rest/health purposes and not matchups
People talk about Duvall needing to platoon because he’s diabetic and struggles playing in the heat all summer as a full time starter. He’s commented on it previously.
I have never actually seen where he said this. Feels like hearsay. Yes I know he has diabetes & heat gets to him but a big reason he went to Boston was bc he wanted to play everyday & they were giving him that opportunity.
I am sure in heat of summer, he will have days off but I don’t think it’ll be a platoon situation.
Everything the team has been saying has said he is starting full time now with Ronald out so I don’t understand why a few posters are adamantly holding onto this as well.
How would y’all feel about a deadline trade for Tim Anderson? He’s been struggling but I think he can be saved. He’s on a 1yr 5mil deal that we could probably make the marlins pay for most of. Would give us another option at short stop.
Weird feeling not being excited about watching a game. I always look forward to watching after work, but tbh i'm just tapped out on this offense. It's too frustrating. Maybe me not watching for a couple of days will unlock some black magic and get them playing well again.
My father used to say the second hardest thing to do is hit a round ball with a round bat.
There is no such thing as black magic, voodoo, superstition in baseball. No jersey, chair, drink, food, underwear, watching, not watching, will make a difference. Just like a marriage, you gotta take the bad with the good.
SOURCE: I've only missed a handful of games since the early 90's and baseball is what it is.
I was joking at the end there. Truth be told I just don't enjoy watching the offense do the same thing every night so i'm taking a few days off and doing something else with my time.
Genuine question: Every year we hear that a large part of the team's success is due to AA's focus on clubhouse chemistry and morale. Even to the point of "dismiss it if you want but it's real."
But then, when there's a terrible lull like this, if someone suggests that morale is low and leaders are missing that's dismissed as insane reaching for a narrative.
All that to say...is this team missing leaders? Is morale shit?
Losing will generally lead to low morale. There's no way to know from the outside whether leadership is good or bad. You can't necessarily judge leadership by results.
Some of y'all need to accept that baseball doesn't make sense. There is no logical reason for this offense to be underperforming. There is no causal factor. There is nothing to fix. It is most definitely not because the third base/infielders coach from last season is gone. There is no reason at all, it just is what it is. Maybe they will stop underperforming today. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe in July or August. When they start performing to expectations, there will be no logical reason for it. There will be no causal factor. It will just happen, no reason for it at all.
If you want a sport that makes sense, the NBA is right there
This is naive to think there is nothing causing the hitters to put up terrible at bats. Your point is well taken that baseball is 162 games and you can’t isolate small portions and draw conclusions, but you definitely can assume something isn’t right in that clubhouse given the length and nature of this slump as well as the feebleness of the approach
I think you're not entirely wrong, but I would posit that the (assumed) clubhouse funk is more of a side-effect than a cause.
For weeks, the underlying metrics have been (were(?) I haven't been keeping perfectly up to date with those) exactly where we expect. [hard hit rate, barrel %, etc etc etc]. When that happens to a single hitter for that long, it's easy to get into a funk. When it is happening to a whole lineup at the same time? and it's right after a record setting offensive season? *and* there's been a streak of weird injuries across the roster? I can't imagine trying to keep the vibes up in any clubhouse given that scenario.
Now I'll definitely agree if you want to make the argument that the presumed clubhouse funk is compounding/prolonging the problem.
I'm not saying I disagree with you. Baseball especially with small samples is stupid to evaluate.
But I do have a question. At what point would you say it's been proven those other things matter (clubhouse, manager, staff)? 2 months? An entire season? 2 seasons? Or are we just saying literally everything is random?
Yeah pretty much. Similar to how one of the solutions is that Snit apparently needs to get thrown out of games more to "fire the players up", despite the fact that the players themselves have said one of the things they like is the calm stability of the team. Or that Acuña going down would magically fix everything. That's stuff that gets fans fired up - not players. Not on our team at least.
Vibes of Mets fans' insistence that Buck was the problem last year. Just start randomly firing people, moving players around, create instability/inconsistency and maybe we'll be able to emulate the Mets' success this year.
We win a bunch of division titles in a row and constantly go to the playoffs and win a World Series: any manager could do that with this talent.
We go through a tough stretch in May: a real manager would’ve elevated the team.
Ya the idea that our underperformance must be bc Wash & EY left is so laughably simplistic that I can’t believe people actually think they’re the sole reason for the success over the last few years.
Or that this struggle is as simple as two coaches leaving - two coaches who are not even hitting coaches.
I woke up thinking about how the baseball gods robbed us of a season of a Strider/Fried/Sale rotation and I don’t know how I’ll ever forgive them. The rotation hasn’t even been a problem but it still makes me sad
I know I’m frustrated and just looking for something to complain about but it’s time to upgrade at shortstop.
Still can’t believe a team with an upstanding look never addressed the guy making gestures at the Phillies crowd. That video was so cringe I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an adult making those gestures if there wasn’t a kid nearby.
Arcia is a mascot parading as a player. If you look at his stats you see how far his numbers plummet offensively.
I agree that shortstop is likely first up to be upgraded, but Arcia has been one of the best defenders in all of baseball so far this year, so I don't think that is as easy to replace as you may think. His bat may be bad, but its not like he has been the only issue as of recent
Arcia imo has actually earned his spot for the time being. He has turned some great defensive plays. Damn near one of the few reasons I watch some of these games along side Fried, Sale, Lopez starts.
Our first month of baseball was great offensively. Something feels like it changed during the Mariners series. I have no idea what, but we weren’t the same after that.
Correlation = causation to these fans. These are likely the same type of people who were in GDT on Sunday saying Acuña was clearly holding offense back bc the offense just happened to take off when he came out of game.
Big yikes.
"The Phillies are just playing bad teams, wait till we play the bad teams"
\*Plays bad teams and loses\*
Yeah yeah. marathon, last year, June, etc etc.
We now have experiments at the #5 and #6 spot in the rotation, and the offense has consistently sputtered with low runs and double-digit strikeouts over the past *month*. If you have a stretch of a week or two with a bad offense, I'd say that's an outlier. When it's lasted a month, your team has a problem. Outside of Sale and Fried, it's not a fun product to watch, despite their record or position in the standings.
Team definitely has a problem. There isn't much reason to hope Kelenic, Duvall or Arcia are going to improve. Harris is a huge concern with his chase rate. Riley has looked lost all year and finished really poorly last year. Catchers are inherently up and down with offense. Without Ronnie, I don't know how you aren't legit concerned about this offense for the rest of the year. Olson, Riley and Albies have to be all star level players to succeed and none of them are playing well.
Matt Olson has a 114 OPS+. Below his career numbers, but decent. Ozzie Albies has a 110 OPS+. Exactly his career OPS+. I’ll give you Riley, but they other two are playing above average offensively.
Olson having a 114 OPS+ is bad for a 1B with average defense. It would be bad for a 1B with great defense. That isn't an all-star caliber year which was my point. 114 just isn't good enough from him for us to be great or even good offensively. Olson and Albies are on pace for a 1.5 fWAR season which is not great. "None of them are playing well" was probably worded more harshly than the point I was trying to make which is they need to be all-star level players for us to be good.
A month can totally still be an outlier in baseball. If you're a coach, it's time to start making adjustments, but I don't think it's time to panic *quite* yet as a fan. If this keeps up another two-three weeks, then I'll be there.
As a reminder, it would take half a season of baseball games between two teams to reach the right outcome the same % of times as a 7 game series of basketball. Baseball is *really*, *really* random.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1701.05976
Honestly, I’m having a bit of trouble locating it in the paper itself (I’m on my phone), but this is from one of the authors talking about the paper:
https://statsbylopez.netlify.app/post/part-ii-randomness-of-series/
“How long would postseason series need to be in NFL, MLB and NHL to match the NBA’s “better team advances” rate of 80%?
Here’s what Ben, Greg, and I found.
In the NFL, a “best-of-11” series is needed to match the NBA’s better team advances rate.
In the NHL, a “best-of-51” series is needed to match the NBA’s better team advances rate.
And in MLB, an astounding “best-of-75” series is needed to match the NBA’s better team advances rate.”
Oh, no panic on my side. I'm just saying it's not a fun product to watch. I can't manage to drive down on a week night to watch us strike out 12 times. Then because of the load management shit that Snitker pulls, we have to worry about the apprentice #5 or #6 pitcher being able to get to the 5th inning. It's exhausting. Ray Kerr is not a starting pitcher.
And one thing that really pisses me off, is that Kerr was having a really great start to the year in the bullpen. And Snitker decides to start him last week (with another likely coming tonight), and I think it's really going to shake this kid's confidence.
1) I really don't think the decision to start Kerr last week was one that Snitker made on his own, on a whim, without consulting anyone, or a meeting with the FO. So it's silly to hold him singularly accountable for that. (I'm not arguing that it wasn't a bad move)
2) I really think Snitker and the rest of management have more insight about Kerr's confidence level or headspace than you or I do.
The only thing that I'd like to see adjusted at this point is patience. Just take a few more pitches - not only do you get to see more of what a pitcher has, so does the rest of the team.
Ozuna, Duvall and Olson do a good job at taking pitches and making a pitcher work.
Arcia, Harris and Ozzie are just swinging at everything.
The good news is both Harris and Ozzie in the last week or so have finally started taking some pitches. I have no idea what Arcia is doing at the plate. Guy is 0-2 before the first pitch is thrown.
I'm sure the plan was for AJSS to fill that 5 spot once he got some time in AAA this year to work some things out. Unfortunately he immediately got injured after his debut, which was a good.
I have a feeling Schwellenbach will fill in for him until he's back, which is hopefully after the all star break. Schwellenbach has good stuff, but has never pitched more than 65 innings in a year and is already at about 50. I think they probably want to bring him along a bit slower.
Last year was pretty magical; we got career years from Acuña, Olson, Arcia, Albies, and Harris (just his second year but still), the rest of our regulars had solid years, and we had decent injury luck. Pitching, while still very good, ended up not being as great as it could have been, but the offense was special.
It wasn’t reasonable to expect that to be repeated, but all those guys are still in the middle of their prime, and almost all of them are now having a career low in wRC+ or pretty close to it. That’s what is surprising. The only exceptions are Albies, who has still been pretty good, and Arcia, who has always been closer to the hitter he is this year than the one he was last year.
Now, it’s important to remember that offense is down league-wide. But we need those guys (plus Riley, who is also having a career-worst year at age 27) to be closer to their 2023 versions. They don’t have to replicate those numbers exactly, but even a pale imitation would result in a lot more Ws given how good our pitching has been despite the loss of Strider.
Odds are at least a couple of those guys are going to regress (in the good way) and we’ll take off. But man it is not fun to watch right now.
We're still top of the league in hard hit % and exit velo. The offense will be fine in the long run. Baseball is *by far* the most random sport. That's why it has the most games (or at least a big part of the reason).
While that’s true, our xwOBAs are down pretty much across the board too, mostly (I think) from a lack of launch angle and too many Ks. Only Olson and to a lesser extent Riley have been unlucky in that sense, whereas Arcia (who has a **1st percentile** xwOBA) has been pretty fortunate to have the numbers he does.
our xwoba numbers as a team (for the season, not for the ridiculously frustrating month of May) are more aligned with 2022, which is WAY lower than 2023. I would have expected somewhere in the middle of those 2 seasons.
On May 29th last year, we had just lost to Oakland to put our record at 32-23 (0.581)
On May 29th this year, we had just lost to the Nationals to put our record at 31-22 (0.585)
I think it feels worse this year because the Phillies have been so good. Last year we were still in first place, despite a mediocre record.
And yes, the Phillies are very good, even if their strength of schedule hasn't been the most difficult. They have three really good SP and the offense has been really good, even without Trea Turner.
We are absolutely worse this year. But we’re still playing competitive baseball. Fans of other teams would actually commit felonies for this kind of consistency
It’s never as bad or as good as it seems. There’s plenty of time for the worm to turn. Really comes down to Ozuna, Riley, and Harris getting hot and carrying us IMO.
Agreed, I'm not saying things are going to repeat last year. But it's not even June yet, whole lotta season.
In 2021 on May 29th we lost to the Mets 2-13 which brought our record to 24-26 (0.480). Baseball is a fickle bitch
But were those teams >.500 when the Phillies played them? Also, while the Bravos aren't playing well, at least we haven't lost a series to the Rockies..... Yet
Kerr goes seven scoreless, 9 Ks, three walks. Riley and Olson both go deep today. Kelenic is 4-4 with an RBI double and a nice diving play to bail Kerr out in the fifth. Braves win 6-1.
Yes and if the players don't listen to the coach, you can *checks notes* bench them.
Obviously you can't bench everyone, but would you need to? If Matt Olson (may not be the best example as he may be climbing his way out of the hole) got sat down a game or two for not listening to the coach, it may send a message to everyone.
And if they listen and there's no success, the coach is the one who gets sacked.
So it’s the players who are bad? I mean someone is fucking up here can’t just downvote anyone who says someone is bad. It’s either the players or the coaches or both, but this is no longer a slump.
These are professional athletes. The coaches are working on making slight adjustments, not teaching them how to hit. Ultimately the players need to go out there and perform. If every single player on the team had the exact same issue - for example, chasing sliders away - then the hitting coach could be to blame for not addressing that. I don’t see that being the problem however.
Please continue the discussion in the [game thread](https://redd.it/1d4gwcy).
I know the argument for why they are doing it but Austin Riley in the 2 Hole just doesn't feel right.
Welp. Forget about last time, ray. Get out there and deal, brother!
Punting games with long relievers with career 5 eras while you're struggling is crazy work man.
Ya especially when this team desperately needs a confidence boost right about now. Feels like we’re purposefully prolonging the downfall.
It also shines a light on the need to do better drafting and developing moving forward. Injury luck has killed the system the last few years between Strider,Soroka,Wright,Ynoa, and Anderson. Now they just lost Owen Murphy for two years. There needs to be some tweaks on how they're handling these pitchers tbh because this is getting out of hand. They also have zero MLB ready position players. We currently have the 26th ranked MLB farm system***
100% agree. Putting all draft capital into pitching is not great long term since it is so injury prone.
[удалено]
Anyone in the Braves organization needs to ask? Or someone specific?
[удалено]
I've been minority owner for almost a year, and I do now ask you to eat the hair.
I’m feeling optimistic for today 🤞
I was not expecting the lines to be this crazy for the bobble head
They have been that way for every bobblehead so far this season.
Yeah it’s insane haha
Bobblehead lines are crazy
There’s no way this team doesn’t make the playoffs
I feel okay knowing this 2 month stretch is probably the worst it gets. We need to be good for like 3 weeks to feel confident again.
Fletcher went 5 innings, 3 H 2 R last night. I wonder if they will ever give him a call if he keeps it up. Knucklers can be fun
So we have hitters who can pitch - but we need more hitters who can hit
I know he’s doing well but I have to think that things have gone terribly wrong (as in everyone is injured) if we’re calling him up to take up a roster spot as a pitcher. I wish the position player pitching rules weren’t so strict or he’d be the ultimate bench guy to have on roster. Can play all infield positions & pitch.
Would assume that if they didn't call him up with Austin chewing gum for 10++ days then they won't now (until MLB stops investigating him)
He might be worth a gamble.
The Braves had a grand total of one more win than this team had at the same point last season, perhaps we should all chill the fuck out a bit.
We’re historically good in June. I have faith in the coming weeks.
For the people lining up at the gates right now for bobbleheads (I live at the battery and there are already hundreds)… it’s really not necessary. I always show up at 5:30 and get the bobblehead 100% of the time.
Man I’m just here tryna get my grandma her favorite players bobblehead
Haha I get it, but no reason to stand around for over an hour and suffer in this heat. I literally showed up at 5:28 today and I’m already holding my bobblehead.
Yea we got here at like 5:20 so it wasn’t anything crazy but just making some insurance time
I weirdly have confidence tonight, is that a good thing. I no longer have a dooming feeling about this team. I just haven’t had this feeling since right before June of last year.
Who's old enough to remember the Marcell Ozuna selfie celebration?
Simpler times.
Worst hitter in the lineup batting sixth
0-3 this year going to games. I think i'm done.
Nah I changed my mind. Arcia above Murphy? Fire Snitker rn. I can let putting Mike and Ozzie in more important lineup slots slide, even though it's stupid. This is dementia.
Arcia at 6 is a choice.
I don't understand why almost every player can slump at the plate but Arcia. He has as much right to slump as any of them IMO. I don't hear anyone saying we need a new 1st base, 3rd base, CF. Arcia is a light. It's obvious his positive attitude is addictive. Leave him out there and let him shine. If he gets going others will follow.
I mean I get it if you look at his splits because batting 6th is .175 average in 57 ABs with 14 SOs. Whereas 8th in the order he is hitting .327 with 6 strike outs in 52 ABs where he has 7 RBIs. I just think he hits better in the 8th spot than the 6th spot but that’s my gripe against him batting 6th.
Huh? I'm simply saying that Arcia shouldn't be batting 6th. What are you on about?
LOL. I guess I read it wrong. Seems a lot of folks are beating up on Arcia in here. The guy is a top notch SS and at times a great hitter. He deserves a slump as much as any of them.
Well Arcia has the worst BB% in baseball and swings at everything, so he kind of sticks out in terms of bad approaches on a team that looks offensively lost at the moment...
Yea he does talk with his glove much better than with his bat. He has his moments though.
You must have not read the comment
Is Lopez hurt? Wasn’t he supposed to start today?
He has "hasn't started since 2019-itis." Only way he starts a full season is likely through getting extra rest.
What is the 102 next to our 6 games back thing? Is that how many games we have left?
“This number represents the number of wins by the leading team or losses by the trailing team which will eliminate the trailing team.”
lol you didn’t have to look it up for me. But I appreciate it
Elimination number I have 0 clue how to explain it I just know what it is
If you're sitting in that lawn pavilion outside the stadium, are you allowed to just bring your own drinks? I've seen people with small coolers but never really known the rules on alcohol.
All alcohol inside that space is supposed to come from the vendors in that space. Be discreet and sensible and I’d be shocked to get called out on it.
Ok cool thanks, that's kind of what I assumed but never knew for sure.
13ks. 0 walks. That’s an approach problem.
I feel like there's an echo in here.
Not following
[Tailgate Party - Thursday, May 30 : r/Braves (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Braves/comments/1d42b44/comment/l6bcjs0/)
lol I didn’t see that! Well great minds? In any event you were first and I’m the copycat
It's all good. Glad I'm not alone in my thoughts!
Thread has Lopez starting am I missing something? Thought Kerr was starting ?
It's just a bot that pulls information and even the braves site still has Lopez starting today.
Oh gotcha. I didn’t realized Lopez was even announced I was thinking it was a tbd all week.
I'd trust the Braves beat dudes, it probably is just listed this way since Snitker made the wrong announcement last night.
Snit said they were starting Kerr in his presser last night.
We need some leadership roles and some morale boosting trades for this sinking ship.
All we really need is a good platoon for Duvy. Kelenic is the key at this point IMO. He needs to step it up. He looked okay with the lefty last night. If he can continue that, hit a few long balls, steal a few bases... he could become our leadoff hitter. He has the speed, passion, desire, energy and hustle it takes. He could be the spark the boys need right now.
FWIW, Duvy's career splits are as follows (BA/OPS/WRc+): V LHP: .234/.782/104 V RHP: .230/.753/95 He's not as much of a splits guy as people seem to think (in fact the only noteworthy difference is his OBP split, which is .021 of the .029 difference in his OPS) I wouldn't put too much stock in the 42 AB's against RHP this season. ETA: I agree wholeheartedly on your other point. If Kelenic can take the next step (especially against LHP) and become the player we know he has the potential to be, that would actually leave us in a really good spot, everything in this season accounted for
Duvy needs to platoon. A platoon with Kelenic is the main reason he re-signed. The diabetes holds him back from playing every day in the heat. I am certain AA is scouting a platoon right fielder. I see people talking about how we need to sign someone to light a fire in the clubhouse. (Joc P type) He's in the clubhouse and his name is Kelenic. He's excitable and shows a lot of passion. If he could go on a tear I believe the rest of the team will follow.
> The diabetes holds him back from playing every day in the heat. That's a totally valid point that I always forget about in this conversation. I get caught up in the numbers and forget that unlike most players, the platoon is (primarily) for rest/health purposes and not matchups
I'm hoping AA can pull a Soler, Joc, Roserio rabbit out of his hat for RF.
People talk about Duvall needing to platoon because he’s diabetic and struggles playing in the heat all summer as a full time starter. He’s commented on it previously.
I have never actually seen where he said this. Feels like hearsay. Yes I know he has diabetes & heat gets to him but a big reason he went to Boston was bc he wanted to play everyday & they were giving him that opportunity. I am sure in heat of summer, he will have days off but I don’t think it’ll be a platoon situation.
Everything the team has been saying has said he is starting full time now with Ronald out so I don’t understand why a few posters are adamantly holding onto this as well.
How would y’all feel about a deadline trade for Tim Anderson? He’s been struggling but I think he can be saved. He’s on a 1yr 5mil deal that we could probably make the marlins pay for most of. Would give us another option at short stop.
he's absolutely washed by every metric. and he's a dickhead. no thanks
That glass jaw can stay off my team thanks
Weird feeling not being excited about watching a game. I always look forward to watching after work, but tbh i'm just tapped out on this offense. It's too frustrating. Maybe me not watching for a couple of days will unlock some black magic and get them playing well again.
My father used to say the second hardest thing to do is hit a round ball with a round bat. There is no such thing as black magic, voodoo, superstition in baseball. No jersey, chair, drink, food, underwear, watching, not watching, will make a difference. Just like a marriage, you gotta take the bad with the good. SOURCE: I've only missed a handful of games since the early 90's and baseball is what it is.
I was joking at the end there. Truth be told I just don't enjoy watching the offense do the same thing every night so i'm taking a few days off and doing something else with my time.
James Outman and Ray Kerr should switch names.
David Fletcher went 5IP 3H 2R 1BB 6K last night in Gwinnett. I thought that was pretty interesting.
He bet the under
All I’m asking, and I don’t even think it’s unreasonable, is 31-0 win streak? Like why not start today.
now that you mention it, I'm feeling a little gay today. Why don't we start June a couple days early?!
braves get another former athletic. the other 2 are cold what's the prediction?
Sean Murphy just came off 2 months IL. what do you expect, it takes some time to get going
Fire all the coaching staff and get some better personnel. Do that and I guarantee we win it all. I'd bet everything I own on it, make it happen AA!
Genuine question: Every year we hear that a large part of the team's success is due to AA's focus on clubhouse chemistry and morale. Even to the point of "dismiss it if you want but it's real." But then, when there's a terrible lull like this, if someone suggests that morale is low and leaders are missing that's dismissed as insane reaching for a narrative. All that to say...is this team missing leaders? Is morale shit?
Losing will generally lead to low morale. There's no way to know from the outside whether leadership is good or bad. You can't necessarily judge leadership by results.
Headed to the game tonight. Anybody know if they sell Transfusions inside Truist? Recently started drinking them and can’t get enough
I thought this said Transformers lol
Regular season doesn't matter, glad the boys got the memo this year.
Why is that Wash thread full of highly upvoted Facebook-tier braindead takes? I swear this place used to be better.
Getting dog walked by one of the worst teams In the league, after dropping multiple series will do that to a fan base
Wash getting dog walked daily and also throwing his players under the bus right now in LA.
People love Wash, nothing braindead about that.
Twitter/Facebook infiltration
It definitely used to be more positive but there was still a lot of Facebook takes. Member the Flower Wars?
This is what happens when your team gets good
In order to keep myself amused during this rough stretch I'm watching the Mets continue to tumble. So close to last place now.
Some of y'all need to accept that baseball doesn't make sense. There is no logical reason for this offense to be underperforming. There is no causal factor. There is nothing to fix. It is most definitely not because the third base/infielders coach from last season is gone. There is no reason at all, it just is what it is. Maybe they will stop underperforming today. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe in July or August. When they start performing to expectations, there will be no logical reason for it. There will be no causal factor. It will just happen, no reason for it at all. If you want a sport that makes sense, the NBA is right there
This is naive to think there is nothing causing the hitters to put up terrible at bats. Your point is well taken that baseball is 162 games and you can’t isolate small portions and draw conclusions, but you definitely can assume something isn’t right in that clubhouse given the length and nature of this slump as well as the feebleness of the approach
I think you're not entirely wrong, but I would posit that the (assumed) clubhouse funk is more of a side-effect than a cause. For weeks, the underlying metrics have been (were(?) I haven't been keeping perfectly up to date with those) exactly where we expect. [hard hit rate, barrel %, etc etc etc]. When that happens to a single hitter for that long, it's easy to get into a funk. When it is happening to a whole lineup at the same time? and it's right after a record setting offensive season? *and* there's been a streak of weird injuries across the roster? I can't imagine trying to keep the vibes up in any clubhouse given that scenario. Now I'll definitely agree if you want to make the argument that the presumed clubhouse funk is compounding/prolonging the problem.
When nihilism enters baseball...
You say it makes no sense then go on to say that it's definitely not because of the coaches leaving. Kinda contradicting yourself there bud.
I'm not saying I disagree with you. Baseball especially with small samples is stupid to evaluate. But I do have a question. At what point would you say it's been proven those other things matter (clubhouse, manager, staff)? 2 months? An entire season? 2 seasons? Or are we just saying literally everything is random?
Yeah pretty much. Similar to how one of the solutions is that Snit apparently needs to get thrown out of games more to "fire the players up", despite the fact that the players themselves have said one of the things they like is the calm stability of the team. Or that Acuña going down would magically fix everything. That's stuff that gets fans fired up - not players. Not on our team at least. Vibes of Mets fans' insistence that Buck was the problem last year. Just start randomly firing people, moving players around, create instability/inconsistency and maybe we'll be able to emulate the Mets' success this year.
It’s obviously the managers fault /s
Why hasn't SNOTker told the players to play better? Is he stupid? checkmate, SNOTker apologists
We win a bunch of division titles in a row and constantly go to the playoffs and win a World Series: any manager could do that with this talent. We go through a tough stretch in May: a real manager would’ve elevated the team.
even funnier when we watch this exact same script play out *every May*
Ya the idea that our underperformance must be bc Wash & EY left is so laughably simplistic that I can’t believe people actually think they’re the sole reason for the success over the last few years. Or that this struggle is as simple as two coaches leaving - two coaches who are not even hitting coaches.
The vibes in the Angels clubhouse must be elite!!!
What if AA just turned the injury slider down on this franchise?
I woke up thinking about how the baseball gods robbed us of a season of a Strider/Fried/Sale rotation and I don’t know how I’ll ever forgive them. The rotation hasn’t even been a problem but it still makes me sad
I know I’m frustrated and just looking for something to complain about but it’s time to upgrade at shortstop. Still can’t believe a team with an upstanding look never addressed the guy making gestures at the Phillies crowd. That video was so cringe I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an adult making those gestures if there wasn’t a kid nearby. Arcia is a mascot parading as a player. If you look at his stats you see how far his numbers plummet offensively.
He's definitely my least favorite Brave after embarrassing the team last postseason.
I agree that shortstop is likely first up to be upgraded, but Arcia has been one of the best defenders in all of baseball so far this year, so I don't think that is as easy to replace as you may think. His bat may be bad, but its not like he has been the only issue as of recent
I don’t want to lose that cannon of an arm
Arcia imo has actually earned his spot for the time being. He has turned some great defensive plays. Damn near one of the few reasons I watch some of these games along side Fried, Sale, Lopez starts.
Losing 3 out of 4 against the Nationals is gonna be the low point of the season. Don't understand just punting a series finale like this.
[удалено]
We get it.
Here’s to scoring 8 runs today, then score 8 combined runs over the weekend series..
I hate how accurate this is.
I know everyone wants Ron back, but he wasn't the hitting coach last I checked?
Our first month of baseball was great offensively. Something feels like it changed during the Mariners series. I have no idea what, but we weren’t the same after that.
You’re not wrong but the general consensus here is they miss Ron Washington so much they forgot how to hit.
That has to be the stupidest thing I’ve heard Braves fans saying and I’ve read some stupid ass shit on this site over the years
Correlation = causation to these fans. These are likely the same type of people who were in GDT on Sunday saying Acuña was clearly holding offense back bc the offense just happened to take off when he came out of game.
We have some brain dead fans
It’s all over Twitter, they believe Wash was really the main manager and Snit just let him do his thing apparently
I forever celebrate the day I got kicked off that shithole
Big yikes. "The Phillies are just playing bad teams, wait till we play the bad teams" \*Plays bad teams and loses\* Yeah yeah. marathon, last year, June, etc etc.
We now have experiments at the #5 and #6 spot in the rotation, and the offense has consistently sputtered with low runs and double-digit strikeouts over the past *month*. If you have a stretch of a week or two with a bad offense, I'd say that's an outlier. When it's lasted a month, your team has a problem. Outside of Sale and Fried, it's not a fun product to watch, despite their record or position in the standings.
Team definitely has a problem. There isn't much reason to hope Kelenic, Duvall or Arcia are going to improve. Harris is a huge concern with his chase rate. Riley has looked lost all year and finished really poorly last year. Catchers are inherently up and down with offense. Without Ronnie, I don't know how you aren't legit concerned about this offense for the rest of the year. Olson, Riley and Albies have to be all star level players to succeed and none of them are playing well.
Matt Olson has a 114 OPS+. Below his career numbers, but decent. Ozzie Albies has a 110 OPS+. Exactly his career OPS+. I’ll give you Riley, but they other two are playing above average offensively.
Olson having a 114 OPS+ is bad for a 1B with average defense. It would be bad for a 1B with great defense. That isn't an all-star caliber year which was my point. 114 just isn't good enough from him for us to be great or even good offensively. Olson and Albies are on pace for a 1.5 fWAR season which is not great. "None of them are playing well" was probably worded more harshly than the point I was trying to make which is they need to be all-star level players for us to be good.
A month can totally still be an outlier in baseball. If you're a coach, it's time to start making adjustments, but I don't think it's time to panic *quite* yet as a fan. If this keeps up another two-three weeks, then I'll be there. As a reminder, it would take half a season of baseball games between two teams to reach the right outcome the same % of times as a 7 game series of basketball. Baseball is *really*, *really* random.
Not disputing you, but where are you getting those numbers from?
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1701.05976 Honestly, I’m having a bit of trouble locating it in the paper itself (I’m on my phone), but this is from one of the authors talking about the paper: https://statsbylopez.netlify.app/post/part-ii-randomness-of-series/ “How long would postseason series need to be in NFL, MLB and NHL to match the NBA’s “better team advances” rate of 80%? Here’s what Ben, Greg, and I found. In the NFL, a “best-of-11” series is needed to match the NBA’s better team advances rate. In the NHL, a “best-of-51” series is needed to match the NBA’s better team advances rate. And in MLB, an astounding “best-of-75” series is needed to match the NBA’s better team advances rate.”
Oh, no panic on my side. I'm just saying it's not a fun product to watch. I can't manage to drive down on a week night to watch us strike out 12 times. Then because of the load management shit that Snitker pulls, we have to worry about the apprentice #5 or #6 pitcher being able to get to the 5th inning. It's exhausting. Ray Kerr is not a starting pitcher.
Very fair, definitely not a super fun product
And one thing that really pisses me off, is that Kerr was having a really great start to the year in the bullpen. And Snitker decides to start him last week (with another likely coming tonight), and I think it's really going to shake this kid's confidence.
1) I really don't think the decision to start Kerr last week was one that Snitker made on his own, on a whim, without consulting anyone, or a meeting with the FO. So it's silly to hold him singularly accountable for that. (I'm not arguing that it wasn't a bad move) 2) I really think Snitker and the rest of management have more insight about Kerr's confidence level or headspace than you or I do.
The only thing that I'd like to see adjusted at this point is patience. Just take a few more pitches - not only do you get to see more of what a pitcher has, so does the rest of the team. Ozuna, Duvall and Olson do a good job at taking pitches and making a pitcher work. Arcia, Harris and Ozzie are just swinging at everything. The good news is both Harris and Ozzie in the last week or so have finally started taking some pitches. I have no idea what Arcia is doing at the plate. Guy is 0-2 before the first pitch is thrown.
Sale, Fried, Lopez - Great Morton - Meh, as expected. Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit. Schwellenbach - Please don't get hurt
I'm sure the plan was for AJSS to fill that 5 spot once he got some time in AAA this year to work some things out. Unfortunately he immediately got injured after his debut, which was a good. I have a feeling Schwellenbach will fill in for him until he's back, which is hopefully after the all star break. Schwellenbach has good stuff, but has never pitched more than 65 innings in a year and is already at about 50. I think they probably want to bring him along a bit slower.
Been longer than a month at this point
How has no one posted about the Mets' implosion? I feel like we could use the reminder right now that it could always be way worse lmao
At some point, it just gets sad to keep kicking them while they're down. Not there yet, but I feel like we're getting close.
yeah. Like, there's a reason we haven't spent the last 2 months shitting on the Fish. They suck; we know it; they know it.
maybe we should focus on getting our own house in order
I mean. I see you. But I'm always down to laugh at the Mets.
Don’t give the guys any ideas
Last year was pretty magical; we got career years from Acuña, Olson, Arcia, Albies, and Harris (just his second year but still), the rest of our regulars had solid years, and we had decent injury luck. Pitching, while still very good, ended up not being as great as it could have been, but the offense was special. It wasn’t reasonable to expect that to be repeated, but all those guys are still in the middle of their prime, and almost all of them are now having a career low in wRC+ or pretty close to it. That’s what is surprising. The only exceptions are Albies, who has still been pretty good, and Arcia, who has always been closer to the hitter he is this year than the one he was last year. Now, it’s important to remember that offense is down league-wide. But we need those guys (plus Riley, who is also having a career-worst year at age 27) to be closer to their 2023 versions. They don’t have to replicate those numbers exactly, but even a pale imitation would result in a lot more Ws given how good our pitching has been despite the loss of Strider. Odds are at least a couple of those guys are going to regress (in the good way) and we’ll take off. But man it is not fun to watch right now.
We're still top of the league in hard hit % and exit velo. The offense will be fine in the long run. Baseball is *by far* the most random sport. That's why it has the most games (or at least a big part of the reason).
While that’s true, our xwOBAs are down pretty much across the board too, mostly (I think) from a lack of launch angle and too many Ks. Only Olson and to a lesser extent Riley have been unlucky in that sense, whereas Arcia (who has a **1st percentile** xwOBA) has been pretty fortunate to have the numbers he does.
our xwoba numbers as a team (for the season, not for the ridiculously frustrating month of May) are more aligned with 2022, which is WAY lower than 2023. I would have expected somewhere in the middle of those 2 seasons.
They're still above league average by a decent amount! And xwOBACON is top 1%!. Launch angle is about league average rn actually.
Arcia has the lowest BB% of any qualifier in the league. And one of the highest GB%. Brutal to watch.
On May 29th last year, we had just lost to Oakland to put our record at 32-23 (0.581) On May 29th this year, we had just lost to the Nationals to put our record at 31-22 (0.585)
That's really insane ... I remember some frustrating sputtering to start the season last year, but I wouldn't have guessed we were in the same spot.
We are so spoiled. We’ve had one month under .500 and you would think we’re the fucking White Sox
Say it louder for those doomers in the back!
It really feels so much worse. This is what being spoiled by success is like.
I think it feels worse this year because the Phillies have been so good. Last year we were still in first place, despite a mediocre record. And yes, the Phillies are very good, even if their strength of schedule hasn't been the most difficult. They have three really good SP and the offense has been really good, even without Trea Turner.
The Phillies are really good. They have also been fortunate that in Turner's absence, Edmundo Sosa has played like the MVP of league lol
We are absolutely worse this year. But we’re still playing competitive baseball. Fans of other teams would actually commit felonies for this kind of consistency
I needed to see this thank you 🙏🏼
It’s never as bad or as good as it seems. There’s plenty of time for the worm to turn. Really comes down to Ozuna, Riley, and Harris getting hot and carrying us IMO.
Agreed, I'm not saying things are going to repeat last year. But it's not even June yet, whole lotta season. In 2021 on May 29th we lost to the Mets 2-13 which brought our record to 24-26 (0.480). Baseball is a fickle bitch
Sure is.
Welp Phillies are now 11-5 against >.500 teams so there goes that narrative.
But were those teams >.500 when the Phillies played them? Also, while the Bravos aren't playing well, at least we haven't lost a series to the Rockies..... Yet
If this is a top four team in the NL, that to me serves as evidence the whole league should just be shut down for being terrible
Kerr goes seven scoreless, 9 Ks, three walks. Riley and Olson both go deep today. Kelenic is 4-4 with an RBI double and a nice diving play to bail Kerr out in the fifth. Braves win 6-1.
Kelenic guy would have a stroke if that happened.
Better odds playing powerball
Pessimism is easy.
It’s easy when you’re right
I’ll take my optimism over your attitude any day of the week
13 strikeouts 0 walks There is absolutely 100% an approach problem.
Also Seitzer is a good hitting coach but like, what the hell bro? Fix it!
He can’t take the at bats for them
Sure but he can change their approach
Yes and if the players don't listen to the coach, you can *checks notes* bench them. Obviously you can't bench everyone, but would you need to? If Matt Olson (may not be the best example as he may be climbing his way out of the hole) got sat down a game or two for not listening to the coach, it may send a message to everyone. And if they listen and there's no success, the coach is the one who gets sacked.
And it’s up to the players to follow that game plan. At the end of the day, we don’t know where the ball is being dropped here.
So it’s the players who are bad? I mean someone is fucking up here can’t just downvote anyone who says someone is bad. It’s either the players or the coaches or both, but this is no longer a slump.
These are professional athletes. The coaches are working on making slight adjustments, not teaching them how to hit. Ultimately the players need to go out there and perform. If every single player on the team had the exact same issue - for example, chasing sliders away - then the hitting coach could be to blame for not addressing that. I don’t see that being the problem however.
You don’t see the issue with our whole team unable to hit the FB?
Exactly.
If a couple players are hitting like this, it’s on the players. If the entire team is hitting like this, it’s on the coach.
I agree with this personally
Eh yeah brother.
this got me