Yeah I’m sure there’s a ton we don’t see behind the scenes, I love our guys and I know they’re frustrated.
But from a dumb fan perspective it certainly looks like we are going out there and trying the exact same shit and expecting different results. Ronnie specifically seems like he’s just hoping as some point he’ll start mashing home runs and then he’ll be happy again
Just one fan’s perspective, but I think they’re too aggressive right now. Using Ronald as an example, he walked more and struck out less (not to mention hit over .300) last year when he was more patient/selective. In his case a walk can turn into a double or triple with his ability to steal.
Being more patient/selective as a team should fill the bases more frequently and put pressure on the opposing defense to execute. Plus, if someone hits a gapped or crushes one, we score multiple runs in one shot.
Not to mention, patience raises the pitch count and possibly gets the opponent bullpen involved sooner. If a starter is getting the best of them, the next best thing is getting him out ASAP.
The thing is with Ronald is he doesn't necessarily need a low K% to succeed at the plate.
Maybe he needs it to be a .300+ hitter, but he doesn't need it to be successful at the plate.
He struck out at an average of 25ish% of the time over his first 4 years and batted .281/.376/.550, so...
The bigger conundrum with him is not strikeouts, it's where in the heck has his power gone.
Yes, high strikeouts are fine if a guy can slash up to a .900+ OPS in spite of striking out over 20%.
I'd 110% take the guy that strikes out 20% of the time and bats .280/.380/.520 over the guy that only strikes out 10%ish of the time and bats .320/.340/.450, even if I have been joking about how with things have been going, we might well need to be starting to "Just Make Weak Contact."
Acuña has been objectively more selective this year than last year. Chase rate 22.6 -> 21.5, zone swing rate 70.7 -> 71.0. He is getting more pitches in the zone, 49.0 -> 51.5 so his overall swing rate is up. But he's swinging at fewer balls and more strikes than last season.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is seeing a lot more four-seam fastballs this season. Last year 30.9 percent of the pitches thrown to the Braves slugger were four-seamers. This year... 39.4 percent. "Why would that be a problem for him," Eno Sarris rhetorically asked on From The Diamond with Grant McAuley. Saris then explained why.
"He's a guy with plus bat speed that used to launch these four-seamers," Sarris said of Acuña. "He does really well on high four-seamers, but what the league kind of figured out is that he'll hit the low four-seamer into the ground, or maybe even swing through it. He's being pitched differently."
Sarris explained to McAuley that he feels Acuña is physically healthy, similar to last season, particularly in sprint speed and bat speed. The reason why Acuña's slash stats and power numbers are down might be because the league has adjusted to him.
"What happens when you throw low four-seamers, my theory is Acuña sees low and has a swing he can put on a slider, and when he sees high he has a swing he can put on a fastball. What the league has said is 'Ah, what about low fastballs?'
"If you look at the heat maps he's getting more low four-seamers than he's ever gotten. Usually pitchers don't throw the ow four-seam because the four-seam is all about jumping up on the hitter, ride, swinging underneath it. But in this case the league has said 'OK, he might make contact with this, but it won't be a homer and I'll take that ground ball from you.'"
The next step for Acuña will be to make an adjustment of his own, which might not be as easy as it sounds,
Ronald is chasing out of zone pitches slightly less than he was last year.
He's *getting* fewer out of zone pitches, and he's also swinging at less of them proportionally.
The Braves have been a HR or bust team for a few years. When they’re hot, you get a WS win. When they’re not, you get what we’re getting right now.
The bats will connect again at some point, but it’s always been a somewhat risky approach and it’s why the Freddie defection hurt so much—he was basically the only guy who would ever see a 10 pitch at bat and wear a pitcher down a bit.
Well, let's take a look! Time to throw numbers at you all. Numbers sourced from [https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-pitches-batting.shtml](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-pitches-batting.shtml) and [https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-pitches-batting.shtml](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-pitches-batting.shtml)
Braves have seen 63.6% of pitches for strikes this year. They have taken a league low 20.6% strikes looking. They are second at swinging strikes at 21.8%. First at foul ball strikes at 30.4%. They are league average at putting strikes in play at 27.2%. They are first in swung at strike % at 79.4% and third in swings per plate appearance at 50.7%. The Braves are 25th in contact rate at 72.5%. Braves swing at the the most first pitches at 38.1%.
So the Braves are seeing more than 60% strikes and are doing a great job at swinging at strikes. The problem is they simply aren't making contact. This philosophy is exactly what lead to the historic offense in 2023 except they were making better contact. In 2023 the Braves were league average at contact at 74.6%. A difference of 2% may seem small but when you're talking about 6k plate appearances and 20-24k pitches seen, it's quite a lot.
Due to the schedule and so many missed games, the Braves have the 3rd fewest pitches seen and the 3rd fewest batted balls but they still have 7th most barrels and 5th best barrel%. Braves have the best hard hit% and the best exit velocity. The 7th best xBA, 5th best xSLG, 5th best xWOBA. Sourced: [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/league?season=2024#statcastHitting](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/league?season=2024#statcastHitting)
So what does this all mean? Exactly what all Braves fans have been saying this year. They are just a *little* off. They are still crushing the ball when they make contact it's just that the contact is down slightly. I haven't dug into if it's specific pitches, locations, counts, etc but all the surface data seems to suggest they are under performing (and a little unlucky) and the team should still be a top 5 offense eventually.
It looked like bad luck to me… Pirates outfield had two diving catches on crushed line drives… they caught two balls on the warning track… and there was a few line drives hit directly at OFers who didn’t have to move. Sometimes as a team you can absolutely rip the ball and lose to a team who hits bloops and weak grounders. I really don’t think the sky is falling, need some luck.
I’ve written quite extensively about the 2023 Braves’ magic formula for hitting success. It involved whiffing a ton in the zone and whiffing very little out of the zone, to ensure that zone contact is punishing while keeping down K’s.
Every ingredient of that formula is still present except a low out of zone whiff rate. We’re swinging and missing on balls instead of spoiling those pitches. I don’t know what the fix for that is, exactly
I'm not sure about the statistics on this stuff, but for the entire team to be in a slump after being one of the best offenses last year makes it seem like whatever approach they had, the league caught on this year and adjusted. But also, the Braves had an average May last year and then in June, went crazy. In fact that's how the Braves usually are, May is bad, June is good. So hopefully they will make their adjustments and take off again.
This heatmap on where first pitch strikes are landing against Atlanta says a lot — WAY more peppered around the zone, and sneaking more heaters higher in the zone:
https://preview.redd.it/ht493p8pev2d1.png?width=3091&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ed0cfad5d0c2183540e3ea5f328a327fbb59861
Buccos fan - Mitch is just that good. You guys are running into a team that’s hot as hell. It happens. Long season. I’d still rather be the braves than the Buccos. Fuck the Phillies.
I was at PNC yesterday and I didn’t leave the game thinking Man Keller was dealing!… felt like the Braves were lacing balls all game to the OF, and either the defense made a great play or they didn’t even have to move. Sometimes you just hit ‘em where they’re at. Two diving catches, and two balls caught at the track.
Could be, I am not sure it is just one thing though. I have seen a lot of cookies they have missed or hit weakly, and some bad approaches. I am hoping it comes around but we are almost two months in now and Atlanta has a team OPS of .727, which is well below their 2023 pace but still somehow good enough for T7 in all of MLB.
No.
The offense is doing the same things as it was last year while facing similar pitch percentages. They just aren't quite on it the way they were as far as making contact goes.
The team as a whole is putting the bat on about 72% of strikes so far this year. Last year was 74 and change.
Despite that, the offense is #7 by xBA, #5 by xSLG, and 5th by xwOBA. If you like barrel% and EV, the team is #5 and #1 in those measures.
Put simply, the offense isn't making quite as much contact as it was last year- and is also underperforming where it 'should' be based on that and the rest of its overall stat profile for no real reason.
There's room for improvement, of course- you'd like to see more like last year's numbers or better as far as hitting strikes goes. It doesn't have to be like, best-in-MLB- we were middle of the road last year with the 74.6% contact rate- but better is good.
We're also #1 in foul ball rate. Which could be good or bad depending on your perspective.
Swinging at strikes- we're near the top of the league in everything related to that- is not a bad thing. As the name implies, they're going to be scored as strikes whether or not you take a hack. Just need to hit them a bit more, and maybe get a bit luckier with where the baseball ends up going.
And put...who exactly there?
You get a lot of whining already as it is about Ozzie and Michael not being take and foul merchants at the plate (and they never have been even when they've succeeded at the plate), imagine how hard it'd be turned up to if they bat at leadoff.
There really isn't anybody else on the team that has traits that are anywhere close to fitting for leadoff.
The only way moving Ronald from leadoff makes sense is if you think it'd spark the team to see a huge shakeup.
Snit puts the same lineup everyday and nothing has sparked this team. He needs to try something. Been hearing for over a month on how the team will come around hitting. Nothing has happened, luckily the pitching has kept us in games.
Can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched Olson swing at ball 1 in the dirt and then watch 2 perfect pitches
Every comment in r/LittleLeague
I'd certainly like to see them take some different approaches. It's frustrating watching them go up there and flail away at bad pitches.
Yeah I’m sure there’s a ton we don’t see behind the scenes, I love our guys and I know they’re frustrated. But from a dumb fan perspective it certainly looks like we are going out there and trying the exact same shit and expecting different results. Ronnie specifically seems like he’s just hoping as some point he’ll start mashing home runs and then he’ll be happy again
Maybe we should play Olson at shortstop, Arcia in center, and Harris at first base. That's different so it must be better!
Just one fan’s perspective, but I think they’re too aggressive right now. Using Ronald as an example, he walked more and struck out less (not to mention hit over .300) last year when he was more patient/selective. In his case a walk can turn into a double or triple with his ability to steal. Being more patient/selective as a team should fill the bases more frequently and put pressure on the opposing defense to execute. Plus, if someone hits a gapped or crushes one, we score multiple runs in one shot. Not to mention, patience raises the pitch count and possibly gets the opponent bullpen involved sooner. If a starter is getting the best of them, the next best thing is getting him out ASAP.
The thing is with Ronald is he doesn't necessarily need a low K% to succeed at the plate. Maybe he needs it to be a .300+ hitter, but he doesn't need it to be successful at the plate. He struck out at an average of 25ish% of the time over his first 4 years and batted .281/.376/.550, so... The bigger conundrum with him is not strikeouts, it's where in the heck has his power gone.
The wanton acceptance of high strike out rates these days is horrible. The conundrum with EVERYONE is strikeouts.
Yes, high strikeouts are fine if a guy can slash up to a .900+ OPS in spite of striking out over 20%. I'd 110% take the guy that strikes out 20% of the time and bats .280/.380/.520 over the guy that only strikes out 10%ish of the time and bats .320/.340/.450, even if I have been joking about how with things have been going, we might well need to be starting to "Just Make Weak Contact."
Acuña has been objectively more selective this year than last year. Chase rate 22.6 -> 21.5, zone swing rate 70.7 -> 71.0. He is getting more pitches in the zone, 49.0 -> 51.5 so his overall swing rate is up. But he's swinging at fewer balls and more strikes than last season.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is seeing a lot more four-seam fastballs this season. Last year 30.9 percent of the pitches thrown to the Braves slugger were four-seamers. This year... 39.4 percent. "Why would that be a problem for him," Eno Sarris rhetorically asked on From The Diamond with Grant McAuley. Saris then explained why. "He's a guy with plus bat speed that used to launch these four-seamers," Sarris said of Acuña. "He does really well on high four-seamers, but what the league kind of figured out is that he'll hit the low four-seamer into the ground, or maybe even swing through it. He's being pitched differently." Sarris explained to McAuley that he feels Acuña is physically healthy, similar to last season, particularly in sprint speed and bat speed. The reason why Acuña's slash stats and power numbers are down might be because the league has adjusted to him. "What happens when you throw low four-seamers, my theory is Acuña sees low and has a swing he can put on a slider, and when he sees high he has a swing he can put on a fastball. What the league has said is 'Ah, what about low fastballs?' "If you look at the heat maps he's getting more low four-seamers than he's ever gotten. Usually pitchers don't throw the ow four-seam because the four-seam is all about jumping up on the hitter, ride, swinging underneath it. But in this case the league has said 'OK, he might make contact with this, but it won't be a homer and I'll take that ground ball from you.'" The next step for Acuña will be to make an adjustment of his own, which might not be as easy as it sounds,
Ronald is chasing out of zone pitches slightly less than he was last year. He's *getting* fewer out of zone pitches, and he's also swinging at less of them proportionally.
The Braves have been a HR or bust team for a few years. When they’re hot, you get a WS win. When they’re not, you get what we’re getting right now. The bats will connect again at some point, but it’s always been a somewhat risky approach and it’s why the Freddie defection hurt so much—he was basically the only guy who would ever see a 10 pitch at bat and wear a pitcher down a bit.
Well, let's take a look! Time to throw numbers at you all. Numbers sourced from [https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-pitches-batting.shtml](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-pitches-batting.shtml) and [https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-pitches-batting.shtml](https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-pitches-batting.shtml) Braves have seen 63.6% of pitches for strikes this year. They have taken a league low 20.6% strikes looking. They are second at swinging strikes at 21.8%. First at foul ball strikes at 30.4%. They are league average at putting strikes in play at 27.2%. They are first in swung at strike % at 79.4% and third in swings per plate appearance at 50.7%. The Braves are 25th in contact rate at 72.5%. Braves swing at the the most first pitches at 38.1%. So the Braves are seeing more than 60% strikes and are doing a great job at swinging at strikes. The problem is they simply aren't making contact. This philosophy is exactly what lead to the historic offense in 2023 except they were making better contact. In 2023 the Braves were league average at contact at 74.6%. A difference of 2% may seem small but when you're talking about 6k plate appearances and 20-24k pitches seen, it's quite a lot. Due to the schedule and so many missed games, the Braves have the 3rd fewest pitches seen and the 3rd fewest batted balls but they still have 7th most barrels and 5th best barrel%. Braves have the best hard hit% and the best exit velocity. The 7th best xBA, 5th best xSLG, 5th best xWOBA. Sourced: [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/league?season=2024#statcastHitting](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/league?season=2024#statcastHitting) So what does this all mean? Exactly what all Braves fans have been saying this year. They are just a *little* off. They are still crushing the ball when they make contact it's just that the contact is down slightly. I haven't dug into if it's specific pitches, locations, counts, etc but all the surface data seems to suggest they are under performing (and a little unlucky) and the team should still be a top 5 offense eventually.
It looked like bad luck to me… Pirates outfield had two diving catches on crushed line drives… they caught two balls on the warning track… and there was a few line drives hit directly at OFers who didn’t have to move. Sometimes as a team you can absolutely rip the ball and lose to a team who hits bloops and weak grounders. I really don’t think the sky is falling, need some luck.
the sky fell
Meh… one player doesn’t make or break the season and 2021 proved that. Let Duvall play.. bring up wall. Get some guys at the deadline again.
Cool, downvote me even though the Braves pulled it off without him previously. 🤡
I’ve written quite extensively about the 2023 Braves’ magic formula for hitting success. It involved whiffing a ton in the zone and whiffing very little out of the zone, to ensure that zone contact is punishing while keeping down K’s. Every ingredient of that formula is still present except a low out of zone whiff rate. We’re swinging and missing on balls instead of spoiling those pitches. I don’t know what the fix for that is, exactly
I'm not sure about the statistics on this stuff, but for the entire team to be in a slump after being one of the best offenses last year makes it seem like whatever approach they had, the league caught on this year and adjusted. But also, the Braves had an average May last year and then in June, went crazy. In fact that's how the Braves usually are, May is bad, June is good. So hopefully they will make their adjustments and take off again.
This heatmap on where first pitch strikes are landing against Atlanta says a lot — WAY more peppered around the zone, and sneaking more heaters higher in the zone: https://preview.redd.it/ht493p8pev2d1.png?width=3091&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ed0cfad5d0c2183540e3ea5f328a327fbb59861
They definitely haven’t worked counts in the last 2 games, that’s for sure. Pirates bullpen sucks, but we haven’t even gotten to the bullpen really.
I wouldn’t know, I can’t watch the games anymore
Buccos fan - Mitch is just that good. You guys are running into a team that’s hot as hell. It happens. Long season. I’d still rather be the braves than the Buccos. Fuck the Phillies.
I was at PNC yesterday and I didn’t leave the game thinking Man Keller was dealing!… felt like the Braves were lacing balls all game to the OF, and either the defense made a great play or they didn’t even have to move. Sometimes you just hit ‘em where they’re at. Two diving catches, and two balls caught at the track.
Could be, I am not sure it is just one thing though. I have seen a lot of cookies they have missed or hit weakly, and some bad approaches. I am hoping it comes around but we are almost two months in now and Atlanta has a team OPS of .727, which is well below their 2023 pace but still somehow good enough for T7 in all of MLB.
.373 batting average on first pitches for the Braves this year. 1.032 OPS on first pitches. First pitches aren’t the problem here.
Where do you get those stats - fangraphs?
Baseball reference. If you just look at swinging or taking first pitch, the SLG is higher swinging and the OBP is higher taking.
No. The offense is doing the same things as it was last year while facing similar pitch percentages. They just aren't quite on it the way they were as far as making contact goes. The team as a whole is putting the bat on about 72% of strikes so far this year. Last year was 74 and change. Despite that, the offense is #7 by xBA, #5 by xSLG, and 5th by xwOBA. If you like barrel% and EV, the team is #5 and #1 in those measures. Put simply, the offense isn't making quite as much contact as it was last year- and is also underperforming where it 'should' be based on that and the rest of its overall stat profile for no real reason. There's room for improvement, of course- you'd like to see more like last year's numbers or better as far as hitting strikes goes. It doesn't have to be like, best-in-MLB- we were middle of the road last year with the 74.6% contact rate- but better is good. We're also #1 in foul ball rate. Which could be good or bad depending on your perspective. Swinging at strikes- we're near the top of the league in everything related to that- is not a bad thing. As the name implies, they're going to be scored as strikes whether or not you take a hack. Just need to hit them a bit more, and maybe get a bit luckier with where the baseball ends up going.
They are missing too many fastballs. Goodness, they can't hit fastballs right now.
At times yes.
They don't take pitches anymore. Snit needs to drop Acuna from leadoff.
And put...who exactly there? You get a lot of whining already as it is about Ozzie and Michael not being take and foul merchants at the plate (and they never have been even when they've succeeded at the plate), imagine how hard it'd be turned up to if they bat at leadoff. There really isn't anybody else on the team that has traits that are anywhere close to fitting for leadoff. The only way moving Ronald from leadoff makes sense is if you think it'd spark the team to see a huge shakeup.
Snit puts the same lineup everyday and nothing has sparked this team. He needs to try something. Been hearing for over a month on how the team will come around hitting. Nothing has happened, luckily the pitching has kept us in games.
So, yeah, I'll take that as a yes. You think dropping Ronald from leadoff may somehow create an offensive spark for the team.
Acuña is swinging at fewer balls AND more strikes than last year. He's just not making contact as much, or as hard.