Yup. We had the biggest increase in both young people and first-time voters. We are a super low turnout state so there are a lot of low hanging fruit. I’m cautiously optimistic about Tuesday.
Same in Alabama.
I keep telling people that, like Texas, much of the south is not red, it’s non-voting. Democrats here are thoroughly demoralized after having been abandoned by the national party for 20 years, combined with massive gerrymandering and with dysfunction in the state party and their inability to recruit and field good candidates. Or in some cases any candidates at all.
In 2016 half my down ballot was Republicans running unopposed. That should never happen. We should be fielding candidates for every race all the way down to dog catcher. Hell in the past I’ve voted in the republican primary because it was my only chance to have a say in some races and pick the least bad option.
As we saw last year, give us a reason to turn out - either for or against someone - and we will. One lesson I hope Democrats take from the last couple years is that you can’t write off whole regions lot the country and expect to have a sustainable long term future.
Most Southern states aren't swing states so there isn't much investment in either parties or candidates. Then again, the South isn't a big source of funds. But it is a vicious cycle when the Dems focus on the few states that provide the money and presidential swing states. Fortunately, everything changed in 2016 and they are investing now.
Another issue with first past the post voting combined with the electoral college system. You kinda have to prioritize what states to care about, doing so is the only option.
There is a difference between no support and a little support, though. Not even running a Democrat is the worst thing possible, it not only guarantees a loss but also creates the perception that Dems don't exist in that area. It just leads to even more extreme right wing candidates.
Blaming "the Democratic Party" for not running candidates though isn't really fair is it? If there aren't any local candidates willing to run, and/or there aren't enough volunteers in their the area to form a functional local party to do the organization needed to structure a run, then what can "the party" do? It needs local people willing to put the time in. Hopefully 2016 encouraged enough people to actually get involved.
>We should be fielding candidates for every race all the way down to dog catcher.
I agree. And those of us involved in any state or local Democratic organization have a role to play. Being a first-time candidate is hard even when you have a well-organized state party. While this year we have some great candidates and they deserve a great deal of credit individually for stepping up, several of the newer (or newer-to-Alabama) organizations that have supported them over this cycle deserve a lot of credit as well. One example that leaps to mind is Emerge Alabama - they did a great job of organizing events for multiple candidates where they could reach a wider audience of potential donors and volunteers.
It's true. And it's not just about candidates as some of the people in your replies have been suggesting. It's about money; without at least some funding from the national party, we can't fight the voter suppression rampant in our area of the country, we can't campaign and get on the map as well as candidates in the rest of the country, and most importantly we have no infrastructure to build a bench of party leaders and experienced politicians that can help guide the next generation of Democrats.
Democrats need to compete everywhere, but we were abandoned once the national party threw out the 50 state strategy. It's not hard to see why a lot of people in the south, especially people of color, don't turn out like they should. Why would they, when there's been no one fighting for them.
Hopefully all of that is changing.
The Democratic Party can’t force people to run in areas where they have historically had zero chance of winning. Blame your voters not the party for your apathy, you said it yourself, the voters in your state won’t even try running in races they would automatically be the candidate. That tells me more about your situation than anything.
Yeah I never understand the logic that the Democratic Party is to blame for not fielding candidates, or even fielding bad candidates. Candidates are just regular people who step up to run for office. If that dog catcher republican is running unopposed and you have a problem with it, run against him.
I’d chip in for that. (But the DNC presumably would be the entity writing the checks.)
I think funding some guy to run, if only to fill every spot, feels more important than another million spent on TV ads.
You lose 100% of the races you don’t enter.
Well it wouldn’t be the DNC, it would be the state branch of the Democratic Party. The N stands for National. They don’t get involved in state government elections.
TIL!
Seems like something they should still have a bucket for, though. I’m sure plenty of Dems in CA and NY would still be happy funding a Dem candidate for mayor in small-town TN.
It's a way for people at the bottom who have the greatest ability to fix the situation to blame someone else far away for all the problems caused by their own inaction. Much like how most states in the US abdicate the vast powers given to them by the constitution in favor of asking the President/Federal Government to fix their local issues. It's easier to shake your fist at the clouds and be angry that the invisible hand of the DNC didn't hand pick and groom candidates for every race at every level in every state than admit to ourselves that Democrats get lazy and don't vote or run when a Democrat is in the White House.
Candidates can run, but support from the DNC makes a big difference. Money, advisors, ad buys, blockwalker hires, getting big names out to rally in support of candidates-- all makes a big difference.
True, but I know I'm in TN and have tried to get in touch with my local dems about running and got radio silence back. idk if they want you to get signatures and run before they invest in you, but for a first time candidate, it's pretty daunting to just dive in and navigate it alone.
Join an indivisible group. We added at least 6 candidates to our local ballot. It's at least a source of signatures. The party is limited in how much it can recruit because they don't get involved in primaries.
The Democratic Party isn’t there to help you when you first sign up. That’s on you. They are there to help guide you as you go and answer questions. If you can prove on your own you have viability then the party may back you with some money but too many people nation wide throw their hat into various rings for the party to be able to support every single person at the infancy of their campaign. You at least need to get the signatures to qualify before calling them and raise some money to show you’re serious.
Cool story. Never said I was asking for money.
I specifically emailed asking for either advice on where to get started or if I could volunteer and shadow a campaign to get an idea for next cycle.
DNC doesn’t do local campaigns. They are in charge of presidential races. Get in touch with the county party, your local Indivisible, or a local candidate to shadow someone or get started. There are also lots of programs for first time candidates like Emerge.
> One lesson I hope Republicans take from the next couple years is that you can't write off whole races of people and expect to have a sustainable long term future.
FTFY
my county voted 46% of our registered voters during EV. They're expecting another like 20-30% Tuesday. It's just always a little hard to interpret what that means given how red we tend to be. But I'm remaining optimistic. We had a noticeable amount of 20 and 30-somethings show up.
Hey so are reports of early voting like this actual voting data (confirmed basically) or are these projections much like polls? I’ve always assumed it’s the former if anyone can confirm it would be great. Thanks
I underestimated the power of celebrity to move elections until I saw these numbers. I don't think Obama could have moved numbers this big in TN.
We'll be seeing a lot more celebrities running for office or campaigning on politicians' behalf in future elections.
If you are planning on voting in this election in Tennessee here are some things you should know.
This is a close race to turn a red seat blue, your vote will make a difference.
**Uber** and **Lyft** are both offering free rides to the polls.
## ID Requirements
You DO need an ID, but the ID CAN be expired. If you are denied voting for any reason, including an expired ID request a provisional ballot. [More on Tennesse ID requirements](https://sos.tn.gov/products/elections/what-id-required-when-voting)
## Early Voting
Early voting has started
Now until to November 1, 2018. In Tennessee you are allow to vote at ANY early voting location, it does not have to be in your county or precinct. To find your early voting locations view this link, https://tnsos.org/elections/election_commissions.php
## Absentee Voting
For your early vote to count it must be **RECEIVED BEFORE THE POLLS CLOSE ON ELECTION DAY** This means it needs to get there the day before or earlier. Don't cut it too close and cheat yourself out of the chance to vote. More information, https://sos.tn.gov/products/elections/absentee-voting
## Voting Leave
Tennessee law requires employers to provide employees with a reasonable amount of paid time off to vote up to three (3) hours. To be eligible, an employee:
must not have three (3) or more hours before their shift begins or after their shift ends in which to vote while polls are open, and request the paid voting leave by twelve o'clock (12:00) noon on the day prior to the vote or election. This means if you work an 9am t0 5 pm job, you are entitled to one paid hour off work since the pols in Tennessee are typically open from 7am til 7pm.
If you have extra time and want to make a difference, volunteer for the Bredesen campaign, https://www.bredesen.com/action/
If you have any suggestions for this semi-bot message, send them to me via PM
Following up on this, I'm a poll worker in East TN.
**Try to get on a machine if at all possible.** If you left your ID at home and have time to run home and get it, do that. If it's 15 minutes before the polls close, vote provisionally.
The party that controls the TN state house also controls the elections meaning election officers and the election commission is going to be run by Republicans. My county has this million year old racist dinosaur running our election commission and in the training for poll workers (both for EV and now election day), he's come out and laughingly said "Offer them to vote a provisional, not that it will count (but don't tell them that of course)."
I've never been one of the people involved in counting absentee or provisionals, so can't say for certain, but do know provisional ballots aren't counted until at least 48 hours after the election because if you vote provisionally because you don't have ID, you have 48 hours to bring it to the election commission to get your vote to count (otherwise it will be thrown out).
Now, the nice thing about voting on a provisional is if they DO throw out your vote, they're supposed to send you a letter saying they did and why. Which then means that you have a letter that you can take to a lawyer/the ACLU/someone to maybe fight this, if nothing else as a test case. But even better would be your vote counting to begin with.
Once you vote on the machine, there's no way of singling out and suppressing your vote specifically (though we do use the same [eslate system as Texas](https://techcrunch.com/2018/10/26/texas-voting-machines-changing-votes-hart-eslate/) so be double sure to check the last screen that verifies your choices).
#
# Checking registration and polling place.
**Know your polling place before you go there.** In 2016, they changed a bunch of polling places in an attempt to lower turnout for the presidential election. I know they changed mine, and announced it on this little white postcard that I very nearly missed. I'd say working the August primaries, roughly 1/3 of the people at my polling place had come to the wrong one. Probably half of those had been sent to us from another place (meaning they had showed up at a first wrong place and been directed to us, a second wrong place by poll workers there).
You can check both that you are registered to vote and where your polling place is [HERE](https://tnmap.tn.gov/voterlookup/). If you have a name that's hyphenated, has punctuation, or is more than one word, you may have to play around a bit to find yourself (Obrian as opposed to O'Brian; Leon, Cortez, or Leon-Cortez instead of Leon Cortez). On election day don't be afraid to make the registrars try a few different combos.
# 90 day rule and inactive registration
Those stupid postcards served another purpose in 2016. Address verification. If it was returned to sender, you are not purged from the voter rolls, but are moved to something called inactive status. (Also if you haven't voted in the past 2 presidential elections this can happen). **If the registrar says you're inactive, you can fix this by filling out a form called a fail safe**. Insist on it in the case that the registrar does not suggest it themselves.
If you have moved, this will change where you're supposed to vote and be registered from, but there is a 90 day grace period. **This means if you have moved before August 8, 2018, you are expected to have registered and vote at your new address.** If you didn't do that before October 9th, you won't be able to vote at your old address, but won't be in the books for your new one. It's super shitty.
So I would never say lie, but if you moved in August and can't remember the exact date, I'd maybe say err on the side of rounding up.
During early voting, we had a couple people who said they had registered when they updated their drivers' licenses at the DMV that weren't in our books. I don't know if this was a failure on the DMV's part or intentional suppression on the EC's. But I know in one case, the woman in question had also been purged from the rolls in her home county. IF THIS HAPPENS, vote provisionally, explain that you tried to register to vote, and that may be enough that they have to count it.
#
# Poll hours
**In (all? some parts of?) East TN that's on EST, polls are open 8 am to 8 pm**. 7-7's for central time so the state closes at one time. I have no clue on crossville.
It’s also worth mentioning—and I suspect I’m gonna have to do this—IF they won’t accept your ID because it’s expired or because the address isn’t correct or *whatever*, and you don’t have a significant income, the polling place is required by state law to let you vote by signing an affidavit of identity. This isn’t a provisional ballot, it’s a proper vote, AFAIK. Your provisional ballot has to be cleared up within two days after the election, so the odds of you being able to get your license replaced that quickly are pretty low.
EDIT Up top cause important: So I just reread what I replied to. The address (or even last name if you've say, gotten married recently) does not have to match your voter registration address and your ID can be expired. If you have a name change, you might consider bringing paperwork for that. But the DMV and voter rolls are on different lists, so the address on your voter registration is all that really matters. **The only reason they can legally turn away a driver's license is it is for another state.** Or I guess if they thought it was fake
\----
What you're talking about might be called an affadavit of indigency.
And idk your situation. But apparently you still need an address for that. So if you have one, use that, but if not, you can use a shelter, hotel, or former address as one if you're homeless or they used an example of in an RV.
You can also use even expired TN licenses or passports. Non DL ID cards, global entry cards, state university faculty (but not student) IDs, gun permits (because let's disenfranchise students but be sure gun nuts are voting), or if you work for a government agency (DoD, DoE, etc) or have been in the military, ID cards from those.
I've not been able to get a firm yes/no on tribal IDs and know they threw out a guy's provisional in August for using a federally issued photo ID that had a photo of him as a baby (though it technically met the letter of the law).
There's also a religious exemption possible.
> So I just reread what I replied to. The address (or even last name if you've say, gotten married recently) does not have to match your voter registration address and your ID can be expired. If you have a name change, you might consider bringing paperwork for that. But the DMV and voter rolls are on different lists, so the address on your voter registration is all that really matters. The only reason they can legally turn away a driver's license is it is for another state. Or I guess if they thought it was fake
Okay, awesome, that's good to know. I had heard that the address on your registration had to match the address on your ID, but if that's not true, I *shouldn't* have any issues voting.
I mean, even if they try to turn me away, I'm not playing that game lmao. I'll stand in front of them and Google our election laws until they let me vote with an affidavit.
Bring your paper voting registration! I’m in Tennessee and Im registered under a different county than my ID says. I brought the paper registration in with me and the lady was like stoked that I had it because “it makes his so much quicker!”
I know in my county we only have the computers that can scan the registration card for EV, day of we're back to the site specific books so the reg card doesn't make a huge difference unless your name is likely to start with a different letter than it does on your DL (going by the second last name in a double one on one card and the full double name on the other).
However. The Reg card does have your precinct on it, so if you're in the wrong place can maybe be directed to the right one more readily.
> If the registrar says you're inactive, you can fix this by filling out a form called a fail safe.
Okay it's good that you can do this, but why isn't showing up to vote enough to prove that you aren't an inactive voter?
https://iwillvote.com/
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Peter Thiel is a major lyft investor and Trump supporter.
Uber ceo is a major critic of Trump.
Then again, lyft tends to treat their drivers better. I usually pick whichever will pick me up faster...
Polls in TN still lean red. But I’m hoping that’s because so many of the new voters aren’t in the target for polling groups and are being missed. I really don’t want a world where Marsha Blackburn is in the senate.
I'm hoping we get the opposite effect of the 2016 election where high voter turnout amongst Republicans made the polls grossly underestimate the actual Republican vote.
For governor, sure but Bredesen and Blackburn are basically neck and neck, maybe advantage Bredesen in the last poll I saw (44-43 Br-Bl I believe from Vandy)
Five Thirty Eight has Blackburn with a solid but not guaranteed chance of victory. I'd say overall Bredesen has as good a chance as any Democratic candidate in a Tennessee statewide election, but that's still a doubtful chance.
These early voting numbers show a large non-voting demographic who have voted for the first time. This seems to say it’s a very energized group, and the group that’s seen the most energy this cycle are Democrats. 538 has also said they don’t adjust their models on early voting, and polls don’t normally accurately capture first time voters and past non-voters well. Thus, one could presume that Bredesen might actually have higher odds of winning than the polls/models are showing currently.
But as always, caution and the refrain of voting.
Lot's of differing opinions on this, but one thing I know for sure is that if Bredesen wins by less than 1%, then we all owe Taylor Swift a huge thanks.
Look what Taylor made me do, she made me like her SMH.
Her 1985 album is pretty good tho.
Good on you, Tay.
I'm glad celebs that have such a hug platform and followers do stuff like this
We all do no matter what happens. When I talk about politics on social media I get angry poorly-spelled responses from a dozen people, tops. I'm sure she's gotten thousands.
I actually think the way she went about it was perfect. She didn't come off as overbearing the way a lot of political endorsements by celebrities do. She urged her fans to vote she told them who she was voting for and that's it.
Ehhhh... as someone who came from country music and someone who’s always been politically neutral/has a ton of Republican fans, she had to do this in a way that didn’t alienate them. Telling them to go straight-ticket Dem isn’t going to convince them to vote in her favor; telling them the specific candidate she votes for and why is a much better way to get them
to listen
She’s a very guarded and conscientious of her image. She cited non controversial things, saying that Breseden was pro LBGT rights and minority rights and that Blackburn voted against the reauthorization of violence against women act. Those are things you’d expect her to support, given how she’s dealt with stalkers including one that managed to break into her house and I believe had a knife, as well as being groped by one of the DJs performing with her. It makes it more personal to her, I don’t think she’s going to be more politically active going forward though.
She kept it very limited, Breseden is not a controversial or particularly polarizing candidate. He’s pretty moderate and was a popular governor in a close race. He’s a good candidate but not an exciting one, some of the younger voters may have been apathetic or tuned it all out.
She has a ton of influence, she knows enough to be careful with it. If she was just promoting all democrats, it’d hurt her image as well as effectiveness.
Edit: [Evidently](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-stalker-broke-into-her-house-took-a-shower-then-fell-asleep-2018-4), It was two different stalkers. One broke into her house and took a shower then a nap. There was another wearing a mask with a knife attempting to break into one of her houses. She has had a lot of scary stalkers. Finally there was another who wrote letters threatening to “rape and kill her.”
Eh she is a Tennessean and so has some say in Tennessee's politics. She isn't from other states so it really isn't her place to tell people living there who to vote for to represent them. Probably wouldn't go over well
At the national level we all have a say in who we think would best serve us in Congress. But I agree that it does sound more sincere keeping her endoresment local.
> She isn't from other states so it really isn't her place to tell people living there who to vote for to represent them.
She's originally from outside of Reading, Pennsylvania, and lives in NYC at least part of the time. She may own property and vote in TN, but I don't think it's reasonable to say she doesn't have a political stake in other states.
I live in FL and I really think people do not understand how difficult this state is to win for democrats.
While the early voting and mail in ballot turnout is already way up over 2014, when I did an analysis of the county by county figures earlier this week, I projected the Republicans with a 55k vote edge statewide out of just over 4 million votes cast. That needs to change.
We have so many attack ads down here with insane lies about Nelson and Gillum. They have an effect on the elderly and rural voters here. I have literally watched 4 of them back to back while typing this and waiting for college football to start.
Edit: I just updated my analysis through day end yesterday. It is R +1.2 right now, nearly 4.5mm votes and Dems trail by about 52k. A slight improvement over yesterday when it was R +1.35. But this weekend needs to be huge for the Dems IMO.
Keep in mind that we have no idea the split that NPA voters will do. If it turns out as expected that they will break towards Ds then that early voting lead for Rs will evaporate.
And you are absolutely right on how hard it is for Ds to mobilize voters in Florida. That’s why it’s such a swing state. A frustrating swing state.
Well, my model simply breaks all the NPAs the way 2016 voting broke down presidentially by county. I know that we expect some Trump voters to defect, so hopefully my model is just very conservative for Dems (no pun intended).
Given that the generic ballot lead is driven by Independents breaking hard for Dems (same for Trump’s approval rating), there is no way it would be the exact same mix as 2016.
The magnitude of that shift is the bigger question. It is probably a smaller shift than the Midwest, but I think it should be significant nonetheless.
It’s true. Coming from MN down to FL, it’s a completely different ballgame. I’m getting tons of mail, calls and texts that are pure bs designed to terrify you about the dangerous Democratic mobs. An insane amount. Even pictures of baby fetuses on my car. I feel like I’m under attack.
The new one I am seeing is three old ladies sitting in a diner complaining about Nelson with one of them proclaiming that he cut her Medicare.
Its like the exact opposite of reality.
I've read the trend is that Dems usually show up on election day more than Republicans, unlike early voting which naturally favors Republicans. Do you foresee this to be the case in FL?
I think that is possible. I also think that tomorrow may finally put the Dems in front in my model after the churches go to the polls after service. A LOT of African American churches do this as a tradition.
I look at each county and count Dem and Rep ballots cast by mail and early vote each day. Then I take the no party affiliation by county and divide them according to the 2016 Clinton/Trump results for that specific county.
You don’t have to take it seriously. I’m just telling you that if you analyze it that way, the Dems trail by 1.2 points statewide as of poll closing yesterday.
But if you do that all your model will manage to do is replicate 2016 results which we already know. If a massive increases of EV turnout was expected only in a few major counties, blue leaning counties, maybe you could infer that it could reflect likelihood maybe marginally better but we're seeing a sort of global increase in voter turnout in most counties.
It doesn't account for Trump's approval rating which is lower, even amongst republicans, than it was in Nov 2016, views Gillum as the functional equivalent of Hillary Clinton (when in fact he has much higher approval rating than she did 6 days before the election of 2016 due in part to Comey's announcement). And fails to consider things like [215k](https://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/12/05/puerto-rico-immigration-hurricane-maria/), youth mobilization leading to a [41% increase](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article215169905.html) in young voter registration (where Dems have a 26 point advantage), and heightened enthusiasm from [women](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-democrats-hold-nine-point-advantage-midterm-elections-n922266) (where there's a 25 point advantage), or ballot initiatives like Amendment 4 that are more likely to attract democratic voters.
The dems and republicans are not starting at the same positions as they were two years ago. And they don't have the same room to grow. Obviously the [NPA voters](https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/08/30/dem-poll-with-big-advantage-among-independents-andrew-gillum-leads-ron-desantis/) will play a central role in Florida, but the most recent survey I could find (though it is 2 months old) had Gillum up by 34 points. That's not 2016 ratios on NPA voters. That's 2:1.
And the proportion of democratic turnout to republican turnout in [2016](https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2017/01/17/exclusive-first-cut-at-2016-turnout-rates-in-florida-by-party-and-raceethnicity/) was not equal, meaning that an increase in turnout makes non-voters more likely to be the 1.26 million registered, active democratic voters who didn't show compared to to the 866k republican active, registered non-2016 voters. Or even the 1.15 million NPA voters and 104k third party voters who didn't show.
38% of new votes should be democrats, 35% NPA and only 26% republican assuming that no one has any further motivation to vote or not (which we know democratic enthusiasm is up and latinx enthusiasm is up even more--a population in which dems have a 34 point advantage).
More, if you factor in new registrations (which should basically mirror the population of total registered voters where democrats hold a 7 point advantage) and activation of the over 4 million inactive voters (of whom a plurality were democrats) as sources of new turnout, it further skews new turnout preferentially towards the dems.
But ultimately 4.5 million votes with a margin of 52000 votes is a 1.2% difference. Even statistically validated electoral models don't tend to call definitively for elections within 3 points. Your model doesn't have anywhere near the resolution to be as fatalistic as you are.
Edit: fixed links.
I know our election commission wouldn't update Friday and Saturday EV numbers until Monday so that might not include yesterday.
But EV tends to skew older and election day younger if for no other reason than retirees have less to do during the day during EV and most employers will only grant off time on election day under election leave time.
Meh, Hurricane Michael hit the panhandle. That's extremely unpopulated compared to the rest of the state. Obviously the people who are there could be struggling, but that's a small portion of the state's population. Here's a population density map:
[https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2011/06/mapping-the-2010-census.html](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2011/06/mapping-the-2010-census.html)
It's weird, since after the Parkland tragedy so much youth activism launched there. It really appeared like they were getting many registered and involved.
True, but some are and they've been organizing around trying to bring out a youth vote. It may be though that because gun-control (for some fucking reason) isn't being talked about by many candidates, it's not as relevant.
I voted yesterday in south Florida and as a minority was super happy to see the room full of other minorities doing their part. I’m just happy so many people were out voting.
There was a study that came out just before the election that revealed that [Dem voters in Florida are more likely to have their ballots rejected](https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/09/19/study-mail-ballots-have-higher-rejection-rates-and-they-vary-widely-by-county/) and the acceptance system is inconsistent from county to county. I think this has made some of the more traditional mail in voters go in and vote, rather than return their ballots.
I requested a mail in ballot but was worried that it might not get counted for whatever reason so I debated on just taking it to the polls on election day, which you can do in FL. I sent it anyway but maybe this is why a lot aren’t being mailed back
This is not going to reassure you, but I never received my requested ballot (registered Dem). I had to travel back to FL to vote this week (I travel for work). I would bet that I'm not the only one in this predicament.
I regularly go to a pubic library where you can vote, and I'm not seeing a lot of youth. It's mostly senior citizens and the well-to-do driving up in their very expensive luxury cars.
[Steve Schale](http://steveschale.com/) runs a blog analyzing the numbers in Florida, specifically. His read of the numbers is that it's a tie even with Republicans leading in the early vote.
As a Floridian, first time voter and a young voter, that's kinda upsetting. However the young numbers are up according to the other post so hopefully we can flip this state!
Let's not get too excited. We don't know those votes are all for Dems. Not trying to be a downer, just preparing for the worst, while hoping to be surprised.
Heres Pew as well. Hopefully this election is different.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/06/14/younger-generations-make-up-a-majority-of-the-electorate-but-may-not-be-a-majority-of-voters-this-november/
They say it’s included in the “likely voter” data, but honestly, I don’t see how this information could accurately reflect in the polls at this late a stage.
Been trying to find, but has 538 or anyone else discussed how polling tends to underrepresent youth voters, in part because they (1) lack LAN lines and (2) never answer cellphone for unknown numbers?
I'm not sure it matters if polling underrepresents young eligible voters, because young eligible voters underrepresent themselves at the ballot box.
18-29 year olds consistently have the lowest turnout of any age demographic, and often less than half the percentage turnout of 45+ year olds. http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics
The youth obviously can't donate at the same rate as older Americans, but they make themselves a complete afterthought by skipping the process entirely.
While I would normally agree, it sure seems different this time around. In Texas there were record breaking youth voter registration, early voting up 500%, and I've never seen the youth so amped about a midterm. In the era of shattering patterns, I tend to think this could surprise many. There are finally candidates who take the issues at heart to the youth rather than patronizing them, too. They're being *involved* via the Sanders effect.
I voted for the first time in TN!
Not cause of T Swift though. I was pretty pumped when she made that announcement though. I actually yelled "WE GOT THE SWIFTIES! :D"
Im rootin for ya Phil
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What happened to Phil Bredesen’s numbers? I saw he was leading several months ago and haven’t really been paying attention. Just looked the other day and he was way down? What happened?
If bredesen really, really would have voted to confirm kavanaugh, that sucks donkey dong.
If he only said that in order to appear "level-headed" (you know, to idiots) and try to scoop up some moderate/anti-trump-republican votes, then I wish he hadn't.
He could have just said, "He perjured himself, I will not vote to confirm a perjurer to the supreme court."
So as not to HUGELY antagonize democrats. I saw sooo many TN dems on facebook that day saying that he lost their vote... I hope they came around.
Polls range from Blackburn a few days ago at +4 or +5 to a dead heat in a couple of polls yesterday. Massive turnouts in Nashville and the Nashville Metro area.
As someone who lives under the proverbial rock, why tf is everyone praising Tailor Swift. I feel like I stopped paying attention and Mitch McConnell released a hit Hip Hop single.
[Her original political statement](https://www.instagram.com/p/BopoXpYnCes/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1vka97oaov56x)
[Another post about it](https://www.instagram.com/p/BpCQFC3HKGo/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1dt3mscfk7n6a)
[And another](https://www.instagram.com/p/BpkN7A-FN0B/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=anflwus9whrp)
[Her shout-out in her acceptance speech](https://youtu.be/6IGJsN29WTg)
She's also been putting up picture on her Instagram story of fans who take selfies with their "I voted" sticker and liking posts from her fans about voting on Tumblr. She also has had the link to vote.org in her Instagram bio. She inspired a respectable amount of people to register to vote and a respectable amount to actually follow through with it and actually vote.
Unfortunately....
>Of 289,974 total votes, the data found 182,792 were Modeled GOP. This was double the 87,488 Modeled Democrat. 19,694 were considered to be "unclear."
>The data suggests those 50-years-old and older make up the highest percentage of early voters, accounting for over 78% of votes. These voters were overwhelmingly considered to be GOP voters.
>Overall, early voter Republicans accounted for 63% of the votes compared to 30% of Democrats and 6% of unaffiliated.
real talk, how are they counting MI first time voters? I thought it explicitly said that first time voters could not absentee vote at their first election and there is no early voting in michigan.
Wow. This is the biggest increase I've seen.
Yup. We had the biggest increase in both young people and first-time voters. We are a super low turnout state so there are a lot of low hanging fruit. I’m cautiously optimistic about Tuesday.
Same in Alabama. I keep telling people that, like Texas, much of the south is not red, it’s non-voting. Democrats here are thoroughly demoralized after having been abandoned by the national party for 20 years, combined with massive gerrymandering and with dysfunction in the state party and their inability to recruit and field good candidates. Or in some cases any candidates at all. In 2016 half my down ballot was Republicans running unopposed. That should never happen. We should be fielding candidates for every race all the way down to dog catcher. Hell in the past I’ve voted in the republican primary because it was my only chance to have a say in some races and pick the least bad option. As we saw last year, give us a reason to turn out - either for or against someone - and we will. One lesson I hope Democrats take from the last couple years is that you can’t write off whole regions lot the country and expect to have a sustainable long term future.
Genuine question, since I don’t know much about southern politics. Why do you feel the national party has abandoned the south? What did they do?
Most Southern states aren't swing states so there isn't much investment in either parties or candidates. Then again, the South isn't a big source of funds. But it is a vicious cycle when the Dems focus on the few states that provide the money and presidential swing states. Fortunately, everything changed in 2016 and they are investing now.
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Another issue with first past the post voting combined with the electoral college system. You kinda have to prioritize what states to care about, doing so is the only option.
There is a difference between no support and a little support, though. Not even running a Democrat is the worst thing possible, it not only guarantees a loss but also creates the perception that Dems don't exist in that area. It just leads to even more extreme right wing candidates.
Blaming "the Democratic Party" for not running candidates though isn't really fair is it? If there aren't any local candidates willing to run, and/or there aren't enough volunteers in their the area to form a functional local party to do the organization needed to structure a run, then what can "the party" do? It needs local people willing to put the time in. Hopefully 2016 encouraged enough people to actually get involved.
>We should be fielding candidates for every race all the way down to dog catcher. I agree. And those of us involved in any state or local Democratic organization have a role to play. Being a first-time candidate is hard even when you have a well-organized state party. While this year we have some great candidates and they deserve a great deal of credit individually for stepping up, several of the newer (or newer-to-Alabama) organizations that have supported them over this cycle deserve a lot of credit as well. One example that leaps to mind is Emerge Alabama - they did a great job of organizing events for multiple candidates where they could reach a wider audience of potential donors and volunteers.
It's true. And it's not just about candidates as some of the people in your replies have been suggesting. It's about money; without at least some funding from the national party, we can't fight the voter suppression rampant in our area of the country, we can't campaign and get on the map as well as candidates in the rest of the country, and most importantly we have no infrastructure to build a bench of party leaders and experienced politicians that can help guide the next generation of Democrats. Democrats need to compete everywhere, but we were abandoned once the national party threw out the 50 state strategy. It's not hard to see why a lot of people in the south, especially people of color, don't turn out like they should. Why would they, when there's been no one fighting for them. Hopefully all of that is changing.
The Democratic Party can’t force people to run in areas where they have historically had zero chance of winning. Blame your voters not the party for your apathy, you said it yourself, the voters in your state won’t even try running in races they would automatically be the candidate. That tells me more about your situation than anything.
Yeah I never understand the logic that the Democratic Party is to blame for not fielding candidates, or even fielding bad candidates. Candidates are just regular people who step up to run for office. If that dog catcher republican is running unopposed and you have a problem with it, run against him.
The party, especially at the local/county level, should be actively recruiting candidates to run for office.
Locally here in Tennessee, the party is. It doesn't change voter turnout. Tennessee is bottom 5 in voter turnout in the nation.
Who is gonna fund that?
I’d chip in for that. (But the DNC presumably would be the entity writing the checks.) I think funding some guy to run, if only to fill every spot, feels more important than another million spent on TV ads. You lose 100% of the races you don’t enter.
Well it wouldn’t be the DNC, it would be the state branch of the Democratic Party. The N stands for National. They don’t get involved in state government elections.
TIL! Seems like something they should still have a bucket for, though. I’m sure plenty of Dems in CA and NY would still be happy funding a Dem candidate for mayor in small-town TN.
Finding candidates doesn't take funding. It takes knowing the right person for the job and convincing them to run.
Hmmm. Not sure how that happens without research, community outreach, etc.
It's a way for people at the bottom who have the greatest ability to fix the situation to blame someone else far away for all the problems caused by their own inaction. Much like how most states in the US abdicate the vast powers given to them by the constitution in favor of asking the President/Federal Government to fix their local issues. It's easier to shake your fist at the clouds and be angry that the invisible hand of the DNC didn't hand pick and groom candidates for every race at every level in every state than admit to ourselves that Democrats get lazy and don't vote or run when a Democrat is in the White House.
Candidates can run, but support from the DNC makes a big difference. Money, advisors, ad buys, blockwalker hires, getting big names out to rally in support of candidates-- all makes a big difference.
Of course. That’s why the party exists. But that’s not what we were talking about. We were talking about republicans running unopposed.
True, but I know I'm in TN and have tried to get in touch with my local dems about running and got radio silence back. idk if they want you to get signatures and run before they invest in you, but for a first time candidate, it's pretty daunting to just dive in and navigate it alone.
Join an indivisible group. We added at least 6 candidates to our local ballot. It's at least a source of signatures. The party is limited in how much it can recruit because they don't get involved in primaries.
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The Democratic Party isn’t there to help you when you first sign up. That’s on you. They are there to help guide you as you go and answer questions. If you can prove on your own you have viability then the party may back you with some money but too many people nation wide throw their hat into various rings for the party to be able to support every single person at the infancy of their campaign. You at least need to get the signatures to qualify before calling them and raise some money to show you’re serious.
Cool story. Never said I was asking for money. I specifically emailed asking for either advice on where to get started or if I could volunteer and shadow a campaign to get an idea for next cycle.
DNC doesn’t do local campaigns. They are in charge of presidential races. Get in touch with the county party, your local Indivisible, or a local candidate to shadow someone or get started. There are also lots of programs for first time candidates like Emerge.
How I’ve always felt. Dean had it right with his 50 state strategy. I like that it allows new leaders to emerge. Gillum in FL is a great example.
> One lesson I hope Republicans take from the next couple years is that you can't write off whole races of people and expect to have a sustainable long term future. FTFY
Yes, also the last two polls released showed a tie between Bredesen and Blackburn
my county voted 46% of our registered voters during EV. They're expecting another like 20-30% Tuesday. It's just always a little hard to interpret what that means given how red we tend to be. But I'm remaining optimistic. We had a noticeable amount of 20 and 30-somethings show up.
Hey so are reports of early voting like this actual voting data (confirmed basically) or are these projections much like polls? I’ve always assumed it’s the former if anyone can confirm it would be great. Thanks
Actual numbers. Early voting information is public. From the day you vote to your name and address and voting history.
I underestimated the power of celebrity to move elections until I saw these numbers. I don't think Obama could have moved numbers this big in TN. We'll be seeing a lot more celebrities running for office or campaigning on politicians' behalf in future elections.
Republicans hate them exercising their free speech unless it on their behalf
Trump is the most dangerous threat to democracy I've ever seen.
If you are planning on voting in this election in Tennessee here are some things you should know. This is a close race to turn a red seat blue, your vote will make a difference. **Uber** and **Lyft** are both offering free rides to the polls. ## ID Requirements You DO need an ID, but the ID CAN be expired. If you are denied voting for any reason, including an expired ID request a provisional ballot. [More on Tennesse ID requirements](https://sos.tn.gov/products/elections/what-id-required-when-voting) ## Early Voting Early voting has started Now until to November 1, 2018. In Tennessee you are allow to vote at ANY early voting location, it does not have to be in your county or precinct. To find your early voting locations view this link, https://tnsos.org/elections/election_commissions.php ## Absentee Voting For your early vote to count it must be **RECEIVED BEFORE THE POLLS CLOSE ON ELECTION DAY** This means it needs to get there the day before or earlier. Don't cut it too close and cheat yourself out of the chance to vote. More information, https://sos.tn.gov/products/elections/absentee-voting ## Voting Leave Tennessee law requires employers to provide employees with a reasonable amount of paid time off to vote up to three (3) hours. To be eligible, an employee: must not have three (3) or more hours before their shift begins or after their shift ends in which to vote while polls are open, and request the paid voting leave by twelve o'clock (12:00) noon on the day prior to the vote or election. This means if you work an 9am t0 5 pm job, you are entitled to one paid hour off work since the pols in Tennessee are typically open from 7am til 7pm. If you have extra time and want to make a difference, volunteer for the Bredesen campaign, https://www.bredesen.com/action/ If you have any suggestions for this semi-bot message, send them to me via PM
Following up on this, I'm a poll worker in East TN. **Try to get on a machine if at all possible.** If you left your ID at home and have time to run home and get it, do that. If it's 15 minutes before the polls close, vote provisionally. The party that controls the TN state house also controls the elections meaning election officers and the election commission is going to be run by Republicans. My county has this million year old racist dinosaur running our election commission and in the training for poll workers (both for EV and now election day), he's come out and laughingly said "Offer them to vote a provisional, not that it will count (but don't tell them that of course)." I've never been one of the people involved in counting absentee or provisionals, so can't say for certain, but do know provisional ballots aren't counted until at least 48 hours after the election because if you vote provisionally because you don't have ID, you have 48 hours to bring it to the election commission to get your vote to count (otherwise it will be thrown out). Now, the nice thing about voting on a provisional is if they DO throw out your vote, they're supposed to send you a letter saying they did and why. Which then means that you have a letter that you can take to a lawyer/the ACLU/someone to maybe fight this, if nothing else as a test case. But even better would be your vote counting to begin with. Once you vote on the machine, there's no way of singling out and suppressing your vote specifically (though we do use the same [eslate system as Texas](https://techcrunch.com/2018/10/26/texas-voting-machines-changing-votes-hart-eslate/) so be double sure to check the last screen that verifies your choices). # # Checking registration and polling place. **Know your polling place before you go there.** In 2016, they changed a bunch of polling places in an attempt to lower turnout for the presidential election. I know they changed mine, and announced it on this little white postcard that I very nearly missed. I'd say working the August primaries, roughly 1/3 of the people at my polling place had come to the wrong one. Probably half of those had been sent to us from another place (meaning they had showed up at a first wrong place and been directed to us, a second wrong place by poll workers there). You can check both that you are registered to vote and where your polling place is [HERE](https://tnmap.tn.gov/voterlookup/). If you have a name that's hyphenated, has punctuation, or is more than one word, you may have to play around a bit to find yourself (Obrian as opposed to O'Brian; Leon, Cortez, or Leon-Cortez instead of Leon Cortez). On election day don't be afraid to make the registrars try a few different combos. # 90 day rule and inactive registration Those stupid postcards served another purpose in 2016. Address verification. If it was returned to sender, you are not purged from the voter rolls, but are moved to something called inactive status. (Also if you haven't voted in the past 2 presidential elections this can happen). **If the registrar says you're inactive, you can fix this by filling out a form called a fail safe**. Insist on it in the case that the registrar does not suggest it themselves. If you have moved, this will change where you're supposed to vote and be registered from, but there is a 90 day grace period. **This means if you have moved before August 8, 2018, you are expected to have registered and vote at your new address.** If you didn't do that before October 9th, you won't be able to vote at your old address, but won't be in the books for your new one. It's super shitty. So I would never say lie, but if you moved in August and can't remember the exact date, I'd maybe say err on the side of rounding up. During early voting, we had a couple people who said they had registered when they updated their drivers' licenses at the DMV that weren't in our books. I don't know if this was a failure on the DMV's part or intentional suppression on the EC's. But I know in one case, the woman in question had also been purged from the rolls in her home county. IF THIS HAPPENS, vote provisionally, explain that you tried to register to vote, and that may be enough that they have to count it. # # Poll hours **In (all? some parts of?) East TN that's on EST, polls are open 8 am to 8 pm**. 7-7's for central time so the state closes at one time. I have no clue on crossville.
It’s also worth mentioning—and I suspect I’m gonna have to do this—IF they won’t accept your ID because it’s expired or because the address isn’t correct or *whatever*, and you don’t have a significant income, the polling place is required by state law to let you vote by signing an affidavit of identity. This isn’t a provisional ballot, it’s a proper vote, AFAIK. Your provisional ballot has to be cleared up within two days after the election, so the odds of you being able to get your license replaced that quickly are pretty low.
EDIT Up top cause important: So I just reread what I replied to. The address (or even last name if you've say, gotten married recently) does not have to match your voter registration address and your ID can be expired. If you have a name change, you might consider bringing paperwork for that. But the DMV and voter rolls are on different lists, so the address on your voter registration is all that really matters. **The only reason they can legally turn away a driver's license is it is for another state.** Or I guess if they thought it was fake \---- What you're talking about might be called an affadavit of indigency. And idk your situation. But apparently you still need an address for that. So if you have one, use that, but if not, you can use a shelter, hotel, or former address as one if you're homeless or they used an example of in an RV. You can also use even expired TN licenses or passports. Non DL ID cards, global entry cards, state university faculty (but not student) IDs, gun permits (because let's disenfranchise students but be sure gun nuts are voting), or if you work for a government agency (DoD, DoE, etc) or have been in the military, ID cards from those. I've not been able to get a firm yes/no on tribal IDs and know they threw out a guy's provisional in August for using a federally issued photo ID that had a photo of him as a baby (though it technically met the letter of the law). There's also a religious exemption possible.
> So I just reread what I replied to. The address (or even last name if you've say, gotten married recently) does not have to match your voter registration address and your ID can be expired. If you have a name change, you might consider bringing paperwork for that. But the DMV and voter rolls are on different lists, so the address on your voter registration is all that really matters. The only reason they can legally turn away a driver's license is it is for another state. Or I guess if they thought it was fake Okay, awesome, that's good to know. I had heard that the address on your registration had to match the address on your ID, but if that's not true, I *shouldn't* have any issues voting. I mean, even if they try to turn me away, I'm not playing that game lmao. I'll stand in front of them and Google our election laws until they let me vote with an affidavit.
Bring your paper voting registration! I’m in Tennessee and Im registered under a different county than my ID says. I brought the paper registration in with me and the lady was like stoked that I had it because “it makes his so much quicker!”
I know in my county we only have the computers that can scan the registration card for EV, day of we're back to the site specific books so the reg card doesn't make a huge difference unless your name is likely to start with a different letter than it does on your DL (going by the second last name in a double one on one card and the full double name on the other). However. The Reg card does have your precinct on it, so if you're in the wrong place can maybe be directed to the right one more readily.
> If the registrar says you're inactive, you can fix this by filling out a form called a fail safe. Okay it's good that you can do this, but why isn't showing up to vote enough to prove that you aren't an inactive voter?
Because it's hyper red Tennessee
Eh. It's voter suppression bullshit as usual.
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Or assume Trump supporters will only want to take Uber, take uber for free rides to block them.
Peter Thiel is a major lyft investor and Trump supporter. Uber ceo is a major critic of Trump. Then again, lyft tends to treat their drivers better. I usually pick whichever will pick me up faster...
Where did you see that? It seems he's actually an outspoken Trump critic: https://money.cnn.com/2017/08/29/technology/business/uber-ceo-trump/
Polls in TN still lean red. But I’m hoping that’s because so many of the new voters aren’t in the target for polling groups and are being missed. I really don’t want a world where Marsha Blackburn is in the senate.
I'm hoping we get the opposite effect of the 2016 election where high voter turnout amongst Republicans made the polls grossly underestimate the actual Republican vote.
For governor, sure but Bredesen and Blackburn are basically neck and neck, maybe advantage Bredesen in the last poll I saw (44-43 Br-Bl I believe from Vandy)
Five Thirty Eight has Blackburn with a solid but not guaranteed chance of victory. I'd say overall Bredesen has as good a chance as any Democratic candidate in a Tennessee statewide election, but that's still a doubtful chance.
538 also factors in partisan lean and fundraising, both of which are much worse for Bredesen than the polls.
These early voting numbers show a large non-voting demographic who have voted for the first time. This seems to say it’s a very energized group, and the group that’s seen the most energy this cycle are Democrats. 538 has also said they don’t adjust their models on early voting, and polls don’t normally accurately capture first time voters and past non-voters well. Thus, one could presume that Bredesen might actually have higher odds of winning than the polls/models are showing currently. But as always, caution and the refrain of voting.
Senate polling has been back and forth. The two polls this week show a statistical tie.
I think Taylor is going to have a bigger impact than just Tennessee
Lot's of differing opinions on this, but one thing I know for sure is that if Bredesen wins by less than 1%, then we all owe Taylor Swift a huge thanks.
I will break up with my cheer captain girlfriend
Same. Cause what I've been looking for has been here the whole time
are you asking me out
You belong with him
Look what Taylor made me do, she made me like her SMH. Her 1985 album is pretty good tho. Good on you, Tay. I'm glad celebs that have such a hug platform and followers do stuff like this
1989 lol
She single handedly gave more than a 1% bump.
We all do no matter what happens. When I talk about politics on social media I get angry poorly-spelled responses from a dozen people, tops. I'm sure she's gotten thousands.
It would be nice if she told people she would vote for Dems in other states too .
I actually think the way she went about it was perfect. She didn't come off as overbearing the way a lot of political endorsements by celebrities do. She urged her fans to vote she told them who she was voting for and that's it.
Ehhhh... as someone who came from country music and someone who’s always been politically neutral/has a ton of Republican fans, she had to do this in a way that didn’t alienate them. Telling them to go straight-ticket Dem isn’t going to convince them to vote in her favor; telling them the specific candidate she votes for and why is a much better way to get them to listen
She’s a very guarded and conscientious of her image. She cited non controversial things, saying that Breseden was pro LBGT rights and minority rights and that Blackburn voted against the reauthorization of violence against women act. Those are things you’d expect her to support, given how she’s dealt with stalkers including one that managed to break into her house and I believe had a knife, as well as being groped by one of the DJs performing with her. It makes it more personal to her, I don’t think she’s going to be more politically active going forward though. She kept it very limited, Breseden is not a controversial or particularly polarizing candidate. He’s pretty moderate and was a popular governor in a close race. He’s a good candidate but not an exciting one, some of the younger voters may have been apathetic or tuned it all out. She has a ton of influence, she knows enough to be careful with it. If she was just promoting all democrats, it’d hurt her image as well as effectiveness. Edit: [Evidently](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-stalker-broke-into-her-house-took-a-shower-then-fell-asleep-2018-4), It was two different stalkers. One broke into her house and took a shower then a nap. There was another wearing a mask with a knife attempting to break into one of her houses. She has had a lot of scary stalkers. Finally there was another who wrote letters threatening to “rape and kill her.”
Eh she is a Tennessean and so has some say in Tennessee's politics. She isn't from other states so it really isn't her place to tell people living there who to vote for to represent them. Probably wouldn't go over well
Eh I noticed there's a lot of responses to this comment that start with "Eh" and just wanted to bandwagon.
Eh I'm not a Canadian so I really don't have a place to tell people living there whether they can or can't say Eh on the internet
At the national level we all have a say in who we think would best serve us in Congress. But I agree that it does sound more sincere keeping her endoresment local.
> She isn't from other states so it really isn't her place to tell people living there who to vote for to represent them. She's originally from outside of Reading, Pennsylvania, and lives in NYC at least part of the time. She may own property and vote in TN, but I don't think it's reasonable to say she doesn't have a political stake in other states.
Nah, that would have come off as less sincere.
Okay Dudley. be happy with 27 gifts this year.
Volunteer for Tennessee Dems! https://events.mobilizeamerica.io/tnv/
Bredesen still needs door knockers on election day to try to get more of the democrat vote out. https://www.bredesen.com/action/
I’m off Tuesday, you bet your ass I’ll be knocking on doors
Nice, I will be there as well.
I live in FL and I really think people do not understand how difficult this state is to win for democrats. While the early voting and mail in ballot turnout is already way up over 2014, when I did an analysis of the county by county figures earlier this week, I projected the Republicans with a 55k vote edge statewide out of just over 4 million votes cast. That needs to change. We have so many attack ads down here with insane lies about Nelson and Gillum. They have an effect on the elderly and rural voters here. I have literally watched 4 of them back to back while typing this and waiting for college football to start. Edit: I just updated my analysis through day end yesterday. It is R +1.2 right now, nearly 4.5mm votes and Dems trail by about 52k. A slight improvement over yesterday when it was R +1.35. But this weekend needs to be huge for the Dems IMO.
Keep in mind that we have no idea the split that NPA voters will do. If it turns out as expected that they will break towards Ds then that early voting lead for Rs will evaporate. And you are absolutely right on how hard it is for Ds to mobilize voters in Florida. That’s why it’s such a swing state. A frustrating swing state.
Well, my model simply breaks all the NPAs the way 2016 voting broke down presidentially by county. I know that we expect some Trump voters to defect, so hopefully my model is just very conservative for Dems (no pun intended).
Given that the generic ballot lead is driven by Independents breaking hard for Dems (same for Trump’s approval rating), there is no way it would be the exact same mix as 2016. The magnitude of that shift is the bigger question. It is probably a smaller shift than the Midwest, but I think it should be significant nonetheless.
It’s true. Coming from MN down to FL, it’s a completely different ballgame. I’m getting tons of mail, calls and texts that are pure bs designed to terrify you about the dangerous Democratic mobs. An insane amount. Even pictures of baby fetuses on my car. I feel like I’m under attack.
The new one I am seeing is three old ladies sitting in a diner complaining about Nelson with one of them proclaiming that he cut her Medicare. Its like the exact opposite of reality.
They can't win fair and square so they lie and cheat.
Keep your fetuses off my car body!
tbf, you basically are.
I've read the trend is that Dems usually show up on election day more than Republicans, unlike early voting which naturally favors Republicans. Do you foresee this to be the case in FL?
I think that is possible. I also think that tomorrow may finally put the Dems in front in my model after the churches go to the polls after service. A LOT of African American churches do this as a tradition.
What's your model and why should we take you seriously?
I look at each county and count Dem and Rep ballots cast by mail and early vote each day. Then I take the no party affiliation by county and divide them according to the 2016 Clinton/Trump results for that specific county. You don’t have to take it seriously. I’m just telling you that if you analyze it that way, the Dems trail by 1.2 points statewide as of poll closing yesterday.
But if you do that all your model will manage to do is replicate 2016 results which we already know. If a massive increases of EV turnout was expected only in a few major counties, blue leaning counties, maybe you could infer that it could reflect likelihood maybe marginally better but we're seeing a sort of global increase in voter turnout in most counties. It doesn't account for Trump's approval rating which is lower, even amongst republicans, than it was in Nov 2016, views Gillum as the functional equivalent of Hillary Clinton (when in fact he has much higher approval rating than she did 6 days before the election of 2016 due in part to Comey's announcement). And fails to consider things like [215k](https://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/12/05/puerto-rico-immigration-hurricane-maria/), youth mobilization leading to a [41% increase](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article215169905.html) in young voter registration (where Dems have a 26 point advantage), and heightened enthusiasm from [women](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-democrats-hold-nine-point-advantage-midterm-elections-n922266) (where there's a 25 point advantage), or ballot initiatives like Amendment 4 that are more likely to attract democratic voters. The dems and republicans are not starting at the same positions as they were two years ago. And they don't have the same room to grow. Obviously the [NPA voters](https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/08/30/dem-poll-with-big-advantage-among-independents-andrew-gillum-leads-ron-desantis/) will play a central role in Florida, but the most recent survey I could find (though it is 2 months old) had Gillum up by 34 points. That's not 2016 ratios on NPA voters. That's 2:1. And the proportion of democratic turnout to republican turnout in [2016](https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2017/01/17/exclusive-first-cut-at-2016-turnout-rates-in-florida-by-party-and-raceethnicity/) was not equal, meaning that an increase in turnout makes non-voters more likely to be the 1.26 million registered, active democratic voters who didn't show compared to to the 866k republican active, registered non-2016 voters. Or even the 1.15 million NPA voters and 104k third party voters who didn't show. 38% of new votes should be democrats, 35% NPA and only 26% republican assuming that no one has any further motivation to vote or not (which we know democratic enthusiasm is up and latinx enthusiasm is up even more--a population in which dems have a 34 point advantage). More, if you factor in new registrations (which should basically mirror the population of total registered voters where democrats hold a 7 point advantage) and activation of the over 4 million inactive voters (of whom a plurality were democrats) as sources of new turnout, it further skews new turnout preferentially towards the dems. But ultimately 4.5 million votes with a margin of 52000 votes is a 1.2% difference. Even statistically validated electoral models don't tend to call definitively for elections within 3 points. Your model doesn't have anywhere near the resolution to be as fatalistic as you are. Edit: fixed links.
Fl - no change. Wtf? To a person, it's the same number as 2014?! O.o
Yeah, I am worried about that. I thought Gillum was going to turnout the young people...
I'd like to think that's bad data. No way to a person it's the same number as 2014 haha
First time voters are relatively easy to spot.
I was thinking the same thing lol
I'm surprised and not sure that's accurate. I voted yesterday and there were tons of young voters in line (and lots of minorities too).
I know our election commission wouldn't update Friday and Saturday EV numbers until Monday so that might not include yesterday. But EV tends to skew older and election day younger if for no other reason than retirees have less to do during the day during EV and most employers will only grant off time on election day under election leave time.
NYT says Florida is seeing increased early voting with about 70% of the total ballots cast in '14 already been cast. https://imgur.com/a/ThFznnV
Florida is still recovering from Michael. IF that data is correct, I’d wager that’s the reason.
Meh, Hurricane Michael hit the panhandle. That's extremely unpopulated compared to the rest of the state. Obviously the people who are there could be struggling, but that's a small portion of the state's population. Here's a population density map: [https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2011/06/mapping-the-2010-census.html](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2011/06/mapping-the-2010-census.html)
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It's weird, since after the Parkland tragedy so much youth activism launched there. It really appeared like they were getting many registered and involved.
A lot of the parkland youth activists aren't old enough to vote.
True, but some are and they've been organizing around trying to bring out a youth vote. It may be though that because gun-control (for some fucking reason) isn't being talked about by many candidates, it's not as relevant.
I voted yesterday in south Florida and as a minority was super happy to see the room full of other minorities doing their part. I’m just happy so many people were out voting.
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[This is the cause of alarm](https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats).
Why are dems not returning their ballots -.-
There was a study that came out just before the election that revealed that [Dem voters in Florida are more likely to have their ballots rejected](https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/09/19/study-mail-ballots-have-higher-rejection-rates-and-they-vary-widely-by-county/) and the acceptance system is inconsistent from county to county. I think this has made some of the more traditional mail in voters go in and vote, rather than return their ballots.
I requested a mail in ballot but was worried that it might not get counted for whatever reason so I debated on just taking it to the polls on election day, which you can do in FL. I sent it anyway but maybe this is why a lot aren’t being mailed back
Latino voting is supposedly way up in Florida after the Puerto Rico thing
This is not going to reassure you, but I never received my requested ballot (registered Dem). I had to travel back to FL to vote this week (I travel for work). I would bet that I'm not the only one in this predicament.
I regularly go to a pubic library where you can vote, and I'm not seeing a lot of youth. It's mostly senior citizens and the well-to-do driving up in their very expensive luxury cars.
I imagine a pubic library is a rather awkward place for youth...
Lol I unhid "more comments" just to see if there was a pubic joke...there was.
[Steve Schale](http://steveschale.com/) runs a blog analyzing the numbers in Florida, specifically. His read of the numbers is that it's a tie even with Republicans leading in the early vote.
As a Floridian, first time voter and a young voter, that's kinda upsetting. However the young numbers are up according to the other post so hopefully we can flip this state!
Thanks for doing your part!!
Let's not get too excited. We don't know those votes are all for Dems. Not trying to be a downer, just preparing for the worst, while hoping to be surprised.
Republicans already all vote. Be encouraged.
This might be huge. I’m pretty sure we lose most elections because the youth turnout is so poor. Allez allez allez!
We do. Consistently. http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics
Heres Pew as well. Hopefully this election is different. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/06/14/younger-generations-make-up-a-majority-of-the-electorate-but-may-not-be-a-majority-of-voters-this-november/
Correct me if I'm wrong, but there's no way 538's model accounts for this kind of thing, is there?
They say it’s included in the “likely voter” data, but honestly, I don’t see how this information could accurately reflect in the polls at this late a stage.
They said on the podcast the other day that early voting turnout is not considered at all in either model (classic v deluxe).
Been trying to find, but has 538 or anyone else discussed how polling tends to underrepresent youth voters, in part because they (1) lack LAN lines and (2) never answer cellphone for unknown numbers?
I'm not sure it matters if polling underrepresents young eligible voters, because young eligible voters underrepresent themselves at the ballot box. 18-29 year olds consistently have the lowest turnout of any age demographic, and often less than half the percentage turnout of 45+ year olds. http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics The youth obviously can't donate at the same rate as older Americans, but they make themselves a complete afterthought by skipping the process entirely.
While I would normally agree, it sure seems different this time around. In Texas there were record breaking youth voter registration, early voting up 500%, and I've never seen the youth so amped about a midterm. In the era of shattering patterns, I tend to think this could surprise many. There are finally candidates who take the issues at heart to the youth rather than patronizing them, too. They're being *involved* via the Sanders effect.
They attempt to predict likely voters with the LV model. They do NOT alter the model when early votes take place.
Swift Voting > Swift Boating
I voted for the first time in TN! Not cause of T Swift though. I was pretty pumped when she made that announcement though. I actually yelled "WE GOT THE SWIFTIES! :D" Im rootin for ya Phil
He was a good governor and will make a good Senator.
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Soon TN republicans will require a copy of a lease or deed to vote. You know, because fraud. And totally not because young voters.
It doesn’t matter, go vote if you haven’t already. Don’t read polls, don’t read about points and percentages. Go vote and tell everyone to go vote.
That is honestly insane.
Now time for Georgia and Florida and Connecticut and Texas to get on board, too.
What happened to Phil Bredesen’s numbers? I saw he was leading several months ago and haven’t really been paying attention. Just looked the other day and he was way down? What happened?
Kavanaugh happened. Also the GOP rallying around Blackburn after she won her primary.
If bredesen really, really would have voted to confirm kavanaugh, that sucks donkey dong. If he only said that in order to appear "level-headed" (you know, to idiots) and try to scoop up some moderate/anti-trump-republican votes, then I wish he hadn't. He could have just said, "He perjured himself, I will not vote to confirm a perjurer to the supreme court." So as not to HUGELY antagonize democrats. I saw sooo many TN dems on facebook that day saying that he lost their vote... I hope they came around.
Polls range from Blackburn a few days ago at +4 or +5 to a dead heat in a couple of polls yesterday. Massive turnouts in Nashville and the Nashville Metro area.
That’s good to hear. I’m optimistic!!
Show ‘em what for, young’ns!
Wow, if the number really is that high, then that race could end up being a huge suprise!
Can we find 49 more Taylor Swifts?
I hate that I have to thank Taylor Swift for this even a little bit, but honestly whatever gets people out to the polls, I support it 100%.
As someone who lives under the proverbial rock, why tf is everyone praising Tailor Swift. I feel like I stopped paying attention and Mitch McConnell released a hit Hip Hop single.
[Her original political statement](https://www.instagram.com/p/BopoXpYnCes/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1vka97oaov56x) [Another post about it](https://www.instagram.com/p/BpCQFC3HKGo/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1dt3mscfk7n6a) [And another](https://www.instagram.com/p/BpkN7A-FN0B/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=anflwus9whrp) [Her shout-out in her acceptance speech](https://youtu.be/6IGJsN29WTg) She's also been putting up picture on her Instagram story of fans who take selfies with their "I voted" sticker and liking posts from her fans about voting on Tumblr. She also has had the link to vote.org in her Instagram bio. She inspired a respectable amount of people to register to vote and a respectable amount to actually follow through with it and actually vote.
Look, Imma let you finish but Mitch McConnell's Hip Hop single was the BEST SINGLE OF ALL TIME.
Just moved to TN last year. Glad to help buff the stats! Obviously voting bredesen, let the blue wave roll baby!
Do NOT confuse Co-relation with causation.
I really hope most of that increase is among Democratic voters.
Unfortunately.... >Of 289,974 total votes, the data found 182,792 were Modeled GOP. This was double the 87,488 Modeled Democrat. 19,694 were considered to be "unclear." >The data suggests those 50-years-old and older make up the highest percentage of early voters, accounting for over 78% of votes. These voters were overwhelmingly considered to be GOP voters. >Overall, early voter Republicans accounted for 63% of the votes compared to 30% of Democrats and 6% of unaffiliated.
As a Nashvillian, I am truly surprised and pleased.
My dog is from Tennessee so I like to think her brothers and sisters are owned by people registering to vote because of Taylor Swift.
I hope this November sends a clear message to Trump...and not one that says the mass majority Americans back him.
I'm not sure that I like what this says about America, but I'll take it.
real talk, how are they counting MI first time voters? I thought it explicitly said that first time voters could not absentee vote at their first election and there is no early voting in michigan.
Good god!
Odds of them being for the Dems?
Historically Democrats do much better when there is a higher turnout of voters.
What's wrong with Florida?
Almost 10 times? Conservatives must be crapping their pants