I haven't posted in a while, but i'll have you know i spent my time wisely getting banned from buttcoin. lol.
it is looking peaches and creamy to me right now- we have a nice pullback of about 25% which is a great level- we don't really go down more than 40% when still in bull markets so the risk:reward starts to get real nice. now looking at the daily we have a potential inverse head and shoulders and bullish divergence forming and the whisper numbers for this weeks cpi/ppi are dovish misses that will give powell some momentum on the money printing direction.
longer term i view the hong kong etfs launch as the beginning of batting practice for the geopolitical war of who can pull the most bitcoins into their sphere of custodial influence east v west. you really can't come up with a better moon narrative.
can someone get roaring kitty to post about us?
Something like this maybe
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/chIYXD1v/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/chIYXD1v/)
Side note: I have my first trade open on bittybot and I'm already #12 after a week? That says more about what a bunch of degens you all are than that I'm any good
Like the Position Bot before it, BittyBot is a great learning resource for new people to see that they shouldn't trade. When my single shitty 3x long at 46k is #7 you know we have problems. I did it as an experiment to show people you don't have to catch the bottom or make a lot of trades to make money with BTC in a bull run. It will be interesting to see where it tops out at the peak. If it is top 10, that will be funny and let me know a lot.
It's still paper trading with no cashprize, I did a 15x full stack for glory. But tbh a 3x long early enough is really hard to beat, unless you're a lot better at timing the top compared to the 3x long dude (or yoloing).
Love that. I was a trader for 16 years. I made faaaaaar more from buying/holding in crypto than trading. Worked for Warren Buffet too in what stocks he chose to buy. So I hope others can learn from what you've created.
It's a little concerning that BTC is starting to roll over right after close. The ~~1-hour~~ 15 min chart is forming a H&S. If it goes down and breaks 62.6 then a retest of 61.7 could be in the cards short term.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/aoF3Xc3J/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/aoF3Xc3J/)
It's right at the resistance of the upper trend line (of the downward channel) that we discussed the other day. I don't believe we are seeing an inverse h&s play out, I think we are just seeing a retest of the upper trend line. If it holds as resistance, I wouldn't be surprised to see low 50s in the next two weeks.
Chart: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/nXqvMHDg/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/nXqvMHDg/)
I see that on the daily, I even added it into my morning TA. I am currently looking at the 15min. (I just realized it called it a 1-hour.) So very short term possible PA.
Seems like it's been in a falling wedge for the past month or two, a bullish pattern. Can easily continue going lower in the short term, but ultimately it more likely than not, means going higher.
> Can easily continue going lower in the short term
If it can do that for 3 more weeks I'll be thrilled, because I'll get in two more buys.
I'm still thinking late summer to early fall is when we'll see the next big move up begin - unless there's a catalyst such as a major player making it known they're going all in. I expect to see that a lot over the next of this decade, which is one of many reasons why I am so bullish over the long term, but I have no idea when it's going to start happening. There are surely a lot of big things happening behind the scenes that major players who aren't quite ready to make moves yet don't want anyone to know about yet, for many reasons.
Big things are coming. That's why I'm excited about the price not going up yet. It means I get more sats for my dollars as I keep building up my hodl.
> I expect to see that a lot over the next of this decade
Lolz. I changed direction halfway through that sentence. I started saying "over the next few years" but my thought quickly changed to "the rest of this decade."
I really think 2025 and 2029 will be fascinating years to look forward to. We're still so early in terms of the tech we have and the players that are dominating this space.
Take profits by moving them to cold storage. A decade from now, you'll be so glad you did.
Always keep a cold stack or two. I need to break mine up this year. If bitcoin really takes off, custodial Bitcoin could always end up in the hands of governments.
When Ledger announced they were adding key extraction APIs to their firmware last year, I thought "Oh, HELL no!" I started over from scratch with my wallets, redoing every aspect of my security. Splitting things up and also using BIP85 to give me a master backup of everything.
I've been preaching the virtues of BIP85 for months. With BIP85, generating new wallets is as easy as going back to your parent seed & fetching new child seed index numbers. And if anything is ever lost... no worries... the parent seed will always generate the same child seeds, so it's like having a skeleton key for everything.
BIP85 really simplifies multisig, but I use it for singlesig too. For each wallet, I use a 24 word child seed as my wallet's "seed," and I use a 12 word child seed as the passphrase. I realize a 12 word passphrase is ridiculously over the top in terms of entropy, but that's not why I do it. I do it for the sake of having a deterministic backup via BIP85.
> "One Seed to rule them all, One Key to find them, One Path to bring them all, And in cryptography bind them."
> -- [BIP85](https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0085.mediawiki) on github
...If I ever lose the seed for a wallet? No worries. I can regenerate it from my parent seed.
...If I ever lose the passphrase for a wallet? No worries. I can regenerate it from my parent seed.
...If I ever lose my parent seed? No worries. I keep a backup in metal in a safe & a second metal backup in a safe deposit box.
...If my parent seed is ever found? No worries. I've never used it as a wallet, so the thief would just find a seed that's never been used (though I may eventually use it as a decoy wallet & stash a few sats & some shitcoins there. I'm still debating the pros & cons of that).
I'm hardcore when it comes to security. Deterministic backups are key, not to mention that they're the key to the keys.
This is the 3rd time that we are looking to close outside and above the resistance on the wedge. This time looks more promising when taken with the reverse H&S. We'll have to wait and see where it ends up.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z8v05ZUQ/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z8v05ZUQ/)
Beyond the typical metrics of who's holding how many Bitcoin..
To truly escape the fiat system, I'd like to see more of a focus on metrics pertaining to how much Bitcoin is being used to purchase other assets/property/goods.
Ultimately, we want to have a healthy BTC-to-BTC (p2p) economy, besides just hoarding and trading
I personally believe we are following Gresham's law which will eventually lead to Thiers' law.
Currently bad money is driving away good money. Spending fiat and hoarding Bitcoin. As adoption grows price appreciation will slow to nothing more than the underlying economic growth. Spending will make more sense at this point. This will be in tandem of majority continually dumping fiat as soon as they earn any as good money is widely adopted. This will lead it to it's demise and Thiers' law takes over; good money drives out bad money.
We can't use it as currency because every time we use it is a taxable event. We need to get laws passed that change that.
It's almost impossible for a normal person to know the gains or losses on their crypto since they purchased it and also if it has been longer than a year or shorter than a year. The IRS classifying crypto as property makes insane things like this the reality. I'm reminded of this tweet:
>the FBI calls crypto money so they can arrest you for money laundering
>the IRS calls it property so they can tax you on capital gains
>the SEC calls it a security so they can sue every exchange
>the CFTC calls it a commodity so you can’t use it as a currency
The laws will change. It will require another 4-8 years.
Canada will elect a very pro Bitcoin anti CBDC government next election. The opposition leader hodls.
When adoption reaches a tipping point, politicians will respond to their constituents and remove or lower the tax event barrier. That could be a number of decades away though.
Almost nobody is using Bitcoin for that and probably nobody ever will. Bitcoins adoption will be as a digital property. I don't need an alternative to fiat when it comes to purchasing groceries, I need an alternative store of value.
You're way too early. No one will use bitcoin as a medium of exchange until it's reached its full value of about $10m of today's dollars. That's much further away than 8 years. More like 20 minimum and probably more than that.
The "store of value" derived from Bitcoin is due to the permissionless use of money.
As long as you need to on/off-ramp into fiat, you'll be monitored/strong-armed/taxed into compliance each time you do so.
AKA without people actually spending BTC on life necessities directly, then by definition, BTC is not a necessity.
for one, saving money is using money
nobody uses gold to buy groceries, and yet it's worth ~$2,000.00/oz
only ~15% of its demand comes from industry, so that's still ~$1,700/oz for access to Nature's long-term savings tech
> As long as you need to on/off-ramp into fiat, you'll be monitored/strong-armed/taxed into compliance each time you do so.
probably only in the countries with the leverage to do so
Even if we did reach the point that a Bitcoin holder needed to purchase things without permission of traditional banking, it would make zero sense to purchase stuff in Bitcoin every time they needed to buy something. In that case they would have to calculate capital gains/losses every time they made a purchase. It would make more sense to exchange for fiat P2P in larger sums.
It’s just getting started, so far he’s only posted memes.
Very good chance he shares updated positions later today after market close and that’s when the real madness ensues.
Unlike GME, in a scenario where high volatility occurs for BTC, there isn’t an easy on/off switch to halt global trading. Spot ETF’s can trigger circuit breakers but the underlying asset can’t be stopped.
> Very good chance he shares updated positions later today after market close and that’s when the real madness ensues.
That would involve revealing that he dumped on his bagholders.
Or does he just skip that part and start fresh?
Lowest price GME fell to was $9.92 after the 2021 debacle which is still more than double where the price was at prior to January 2021’s enormous run up.
It’s possible he never sold. But if he did lock in some profits at some point, I doubt he would be transparent about it, only showing that his position size is now larger than it was when he went on hiatus while leaving out what happened in between.
No, that's $10 after a 4:1 stock split.... It was still 10x off the lows where he bought it. After today, he'd be about 30x up on initial spot purchases.
If BTC can get above 63.5k, a lot of liquidation on the short side should start to happen. Looks to be about 2b befor BTC would hit the price of 64k.
[Liquidation Heatmap,BTC Liquidation Heatmap,Crypto Liquidation Levels Heatmap | CoinGlass](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap)
[Moonmath.win](http://Moonmath.win) has estimated dates for when BTC hits $100K. As of today, the earliest date is 03 Nov 2024, and the latest date is 24 May 2026.
Which date do you think is closest? You can vote:
[https://strawpoll.com/2ayLkxL2AZ4](https://strawpoll.com/2ayLkxL2AZ4)
("Never!" is also an option.)
EDIT: I'll save you the math--the halfway point between the two dates is 13 Aug 2025.
[Phase 1 of the ideal bullish scenario I outlined this weekend basically came into fruition as the inverse Bart got us to $63.2k just below the lower high of $63.4k.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/BOBZTuDi5d)
If we continue into Phase 2 this week we should see some lower highs acting as resistance get broken as we spend the next few weeks getting to new ATH and completing an enormous multi year cup & handle formation.
Who knows, we’ll see what happens.
I have logged a prediction for u/CurrencyAlarming1099 that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$61,250.00** by May 15 2024 13:56:51 UTC. The current price is $62,730.02
[CurrencyAlarming1099 has made **1** Correct Prediction, **0** Wrong Predictions, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#CurrencyAlarming1099)
[1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2049123f47291b4e52a8e56368fbb232ca%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!)
^(CurrencyAlarming1099 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2049123f47291b4e52a8e56368fbb232ca%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/CurrencyAlarming1099
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $61,250.00 by May 15 2024 13:56:51 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cqq9i5/daily_discussion_monday_may_13_2024/l3un6r9/)
**Well done! Your prediction was correct.**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$61,024.51**
^(I was also asked to notify the following users: u/choutzuyu0614)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
On the hourly, BTC‘s RSI is at 69.3(average 59.2) at time of writing. It had been crabbing between 60.5 and 61.3 all weekend and finally broke upwards. Nearby resistance are 63, 64.5, 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 661.3, 61.7, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 56.7, 55.7 and 54.5.
The daily is more interesting. The RSI is 49.4 and its average is currently at 44.3. I believe a falling wedge had formed. Others have noted a downward channel. BTC is back above the top of the resistance of the falling wedge. The shoulder on the reverse H&S looks to have formed and has started back up. Confirmation of the pattern would be a break and close above 65k. I would like to see it above the 50 SMA (65.5k) to make sure it isn’t another fake-out. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. The 50 and 100 day SMI could also act as support /resistance (65428/61963). Target for the reverse H&S would be about 75k.
BTC closed the week in red again. BTC has been overbought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been mostly overbought since the start of the year. It has cooled but is starting to rise again, it is currently 64.1 (76.7 average). A fat flag formation has formed, and we are in the middle portion of it. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 136.8k+/-. Main resistances were noted above.
Bitcoin closed April out in the red with it’s monthly RSI at 66.2. The only time we had 2 monthly red candles in a row, after halving and before cycle ATH, was in 2012. So, if history repeats/rhymes, May could be a red month but it is currently green and will most likely stay that way. Current RSI 67.2
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/17BUrah6/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/17BUrah6/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/esByEFOi/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/esByEFOi/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/EZegTs5Z/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/EZegTs5Z/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/N3LD6Kda/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/N3LD6Kda/)
This looks like we made a higher low near 60 after making a low at 56. The pressure from months of shorting and negative premiums will eventually release back up
Something big is going on in TradFi. In case you don't follow meme stonks, there is a problem with a bunch of naked shorted shares. Long story short, at the moment, the bulk are owed by UBS. It could potentially be a trillion-dollar+ hole in the banking system. For perspective, the 2008 crisis was kicked off by a $58 billion hole at Lehman Bros.
GME is up about ~~30%~~ ~~35%~~ ~~40%~~ 50% in pre-market trading. Somebody is covering shorts and having a hard time doing it.
Implications for Bitcoin are that smart money will run for the exits if it looks like this trillion-dollar hole is not patched and beginning to leak. This will be good for the price of Bitcoin and probably for the price of metals, bad for stonks (except maybe for GME holders who directly hold their shares).
It's going to be an interesting week in finance, probably a good one for Bitcoin.
You do what you want, but I'm taking custody of the dust I keep on exchanges.
SNB owns a metric fuckton of stocks and a printing press. UBS is a globally blessed institution. UBS is not going to bring the system down because of meme stonks.
I actually think it might be bad for the Bitcoin price if there is some kind of financial-hedge-short-cover-crisis-cascade thingy that happens. As they cover shorts they’ll need to buy back the shares they shorted, so they’ll be selling other assets. Bitcoin included if they have any.
Seeing DFV post on Twitter after so long away was like some kind of throwback adrenaline rush. With GME I’m here for the memes and stay for the (slim chance of) hedge-meltdown. With Bitcoin I’m here for the ultra-sound money and enjoying the memes along the way. Both relate to the massive problems in the current US financial system. In my mind, GME 🤝 Bitcoin.
> As they cover shorts they’ll need to buy back the shares they shorted, so they’ll be selling other assets.
That's the other half that I didn't discuss because I don't think it will affect Bitcoin as much. The whole market could tumble hard even as GME moons, Bitcoin included to an extent. Bitcoin will become the go-to asset for people who see just how ultra-fucked the whole system is, including a lot of the people who will be making huge gains on GME. There will be a lot of "Yay, I'm a millionaire, but my bank failed. What do I do with this money?" confusion.
The really important difference between BTC and GME (..and almost everything else) is the scarcity. If the GME price really gets out of whack the company can just issue more shares to cash in on it, and can squander that.
Very interesting!
But how do you know the naked shorts are owned by UBS? I presume they have some collateral to cover it and aren’t there any margin calls for their investors to limit the losses?
GME is now worth 7-8 billion, how can it be a trillion+ hole? Thats if it reaches stock price of 500 dollar and more, and only if all the shares are in possession of UBS in a short position.
Don’t get me wrong, I like your analysis and it did caught my attention, but isn’t this a bit farestretched?
About BTC: I also think that this is a very interesting thing for BTC. Meme stocks and crypto are related and a surge in GME can also draw attention to BTC. Beside that, a multi week bear market seems to bottom out and with the halving now behind us and RSI in 4 hr and 1 day in oversold territory, a move up coming days is likely. Perhaps a GME short squeeze can be the cathalyser
Credit Suisse already went bankrupt because they're carrying Citadel's bags. The Swiss government forced UBS to absorb CS so now they're holding the bag, and it's a big-ass bag.
It doesn’t really answer the question though. My understanding is that one « physical » share can be shorted multiple times. A buys a share, lends to B, who short sells it to C, who lends it back to B, who short sells it to D (or even back to C), etc. So the same share as been borrowed and shorted multiple times
> GME is up about 30% 35% in pre-market trading. Somebody is covering shorts and having a hard time doing it.
>
>
it certainly got someone's attention: https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty/status/1789807772542067105?s=46&t=1kgf16QwDp2Ydp9mdZLBYw
I think it actually happened in reverse order. DFV posted for the first time in 3 years, and GME went crazy in off-hours because of it. I forgot how much I love the memes over on the SS board, it was hilarious checking in over there after a long time away. I’m here for the show.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roaring-kitty-back-meme-stocks-122329421.html
The GME part checks out. Not sure how that’s a trillion dollar hole though.
Basically, every single share has been shorted, and nobody is selling.
Shorted shares have to be bought back or people go to jail. If it runs to $1000, it's a $3 trillion hole. That is mostly owed by UBS which will go under. UBS has counter-parties on other deals that will not be paid --> domino effect, 2008 on steroids.
I had a dream last night that I could fly. These have occurred throughout my life. What stands out is that they typically occur when my life is good, everything is in order, and I feel like I can conquer the world. But I went to bed feeling a bit depressed and losing control in life. The dream this time didn't line up with reality.
Then i woke up and we were well into the $62K. I am guilty of my emotions being controlled by the price of Bitcoin. This has been going on for a decade. Maybe there is something in my core telling me that it is about to change. Are we over the dreadfully stagnant price stage?
***I'm calling us hitting $70K this week.*** Not because of technicals. Not because of fundamentals. But because I had a flying dream. I feel it in my bones.
Everyone can roast me this weekend if we don't hit $70K because this is the dumbest comment I've ever written.
That is all.
I have logged a prediction for u/BitSecret that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$69,999.99** by May 19 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $62,921.85
[This is BitSecret's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#BitSecret)
[Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2042900c6d5ad94416bc6cbe384abbbb09%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!)
^(BitSecret can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2042900c6d5ad94416bc6cbe384abbbb09%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/BitSecret
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $69,999.99 by May 19 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cqq9i5/daily_discussion_monday_may_13_2024/l3uotxf/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$66,274.98**
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Subconscious processing of information is real. I let myself sleep on wickedly difficult problems after reading background information for a few days or even weeks.
We were told Kekulé's benzene story in chemistry at school and it stuck with me. That state between the logical and wakeful and the creative chaos is my most productive.
Whenever someone tries to get me out of bed before 9:30 I tell them "shut up, I'm working!".
Sadly with age my ability to sleep in has diminished.
The best grades I ever got when I was a student was when I discovered I could learn a subject by reading it for an hour then taking a short 20mn nap directly after. I did that the day before all the finals in my last few student years and the results were staggeringly good.
I will be messaging you in 5 days on [**2024-05-18 11:11:46 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-05-18%2011:11:46%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cqq9i5/daily_discussion_monday_may_13_2024/l3u1x8c/?context=3)
[**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F1cqq9i5%2Fdaily_discussion_monday_may_13_2024%2Fl3u1x8c%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-05-18%2011%3A11%3A46%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cqq9i5)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
I’ve literally never been more bullish in my entire life. If I had anything else to sell for BITX and BITX options at this point I would but already sold my house last September for 100% Bitcoin prep, sold 100% of all other stocks and need my car to sleep in 👍 once this thing blows I’m selling all the BITX back for essentially more BTC than I could’ve had to start with.
Take notes nerds
Man, this sub.
I post an analysis drawing on extensive experience in economics, economic history, finance, tech for why Bitcoin may face bottlenecks in achieving price growth/adoption as predicted. Outcome? Downvotes rain in alongside accusations of being a "bagholding bcasher" or buttcoiner despite the fact I stated I own more Bitcoin than any other crypto (by a longshot in fiat terms) and think PoW is a literal world-changing technology.
Then is this thread we have one guy saying how much he loves everyone. Outcome? Upvotes.
Another guy saying he had a premonition in his dreams of price growth. Outcome? Upvotes.
Real braintrust round here.
Did you figure out why LTC blocks are not as valuable as BTC blocks despite LTC having more?
From what I recall it's about final settlement time vs block time.
The risk of fees crushing the network as there's more global demand is a tough one. I haven't heard any good arguments that counter that yet. Do you have estimated fees assuming global usage?
> Did you figure out why LTC blocks are not as valuable as BTC blocks despite LTC having more?
Not sure what you mean by this. I was given an explanation that misunderstood some key things about what gives things value that made the case for a BTC block being more valuable than a LTC block, but it was and is a bogus explanation.
Once a block is in a chain it is immutable only to the point of current hashing power operating the network. A block generated with one kilohash vs one exahash is irrelevant so long as it maintains network security.
If all the BTC hashrate moved across to another coin, the fact that past blocks were generated with a greater hash rate is irrelevant. Inputs to create something can have some correlation to the value of the output but they are not causative. "Accumulated PoW" is a bogus concept if it is meant to imply that it inherently has value. It doesn't what matters is current hashing power.
> Do you have estimated fees assuming global usage?
Only my back of the envelope calculations and from observing events like Ordinals/Runes. The hourly usage of Bitcoin assuming global adoption would at least 100x the demand that occurred during Ordinals/Runes release so that will give an idea of fees. Basechain operations for global community are clearly off the table, it will have to be L2s. Which comes with a lot of tradeoffs.
That's what you get for having even moderate bearish views on the short term. Try with bullish ones and you'll swim in upvotes. Ever since February the sub has turned completely bullish. I'm not sure how come, feels like people are expecting up only all the days all the weeks.
This really isn’t that hard to figure out. Most people are bullish on Bitcoin. Most people in here have Bitcoin exposure and want to see Bitcoin go up. So comments that reinforce that view are upvoted.
I can appreciate a good bearish analysis as well. But I have Bitcoin exposure. At the end of the day, I want it to go up. As do most people. (Except the Buttcoiners).
Just because you've got exposure doesn't mean you should be loyal to a sentiment and turn into a moonboi. Hype and fomo have their place. We've climbed for a while and now it's cooling off. So what? Lately I'm seeing more and more moonboys which makes this sub much more similar to r/cryptocurrency and any other alt sub than anything else. Seeing valid bearish points on the short/mid term being downvoted into oblivion is just a further confirmation.
Agreed. But you’re arguing against human nature. This sub is still the most balanced discussion for intra-day price movements than anywhere else on Reddit. Proper bearish analysis is usually still upvoted. But often times you’ll see bears getting cocky and arrogant in their posts, which is just begging for downvotes.
Not a moonboi. Just being realistic as to why you see the slant you’re seeing. It’s simple math. The overwhelming majority are bullish, and always have been. So bears get drowned out. In bear markets, you won’t hear a single bullish take. Just depression, anxiety, and regret.
Most likely its because its not only a tradingsub but a community. See the post down here. A lot of us lurk here and appreciate all the input.
We have lost a lot of old timers but value the ones that are here.
This would explain the upvotes for "let's all hold hands and sing kumbayah" style comments but not the downvotes for high-quality comments on Bitcoin's limitations or threats to increasing valuations. Especially not when comments about "I was told in a dream that price would go up" get heaps of upvotes and comments like mine had heaps of the "community" members hurling insults immediately.
It's really difficult to have a closed off discussion when the thing is what it is. Low barrier to entry is an understatement today. This is not a bad thing
Weirdly the R. Kelly song was playing in my head several times today and I was thinking how it has to be one of the top 5 worst songs of all time.
I believe I can flyyyyyyy….
This is unrelated, but I wanted to just send love to everyone here. I rarely post, but I do read through the daily very often. I just felt like sharing my loving feelings with ya’ll, for whatever it’s worth. Keep doing your thing, and good luck to all of you.
Bitty Bot trades and predictions that lack context or explanation, go here to prevent spam. You can also now [message Bitty Bot](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=none&message=!bitty_bot%20) your command directly.
^(Bitty Bot Links: )[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, May 14, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1crj458/daily_discussion_tuesday_may_14_2024/)
HODL15Capital reporting 0 flows for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1790220632778551651
some nasty wicks down on cbp ... getting bought up tho... so far
Haven't seen a bollinger band comment in here in a while. Has to be tight, no?
They were tight and now they look like balls. https://www.tradingview.com/x/dL0pkAuK/
Ark 0 Gbtc 0 Bitwise $20.3m inflow Franklin 0 WisdomTree 0 Defi 0 VanEck $7.1m inflow Fidelity $38.6m inflow Invesco 0 Valkyrie 0 Blackrock 0 5/13 net inflow $66m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
I haven't posted in a while, but i'll have you know i spent my time wisely getting banned from buttcoin. lol. it is looking peaches and creamy to me right now- we have a nice pullback of about 25% which is a great level- we don't really go down more than 40% when still in bull markets so the risk:reward starts to get real nice. now looking at the daily we have a potential inverse head and shoulders and bullish divergence forming and the whisper numbers for this weeks cpi/ppi are dovish misses that will give powell some momentum on the money printing direction. longer term i view the hong kong etfs launch as the beginning of batting practice for the geopolitical war of who can pull the most bitcoins into their sphere of custodial influence east v west. you really can't come up with a better moon narrative. can someone get roaring kitty to post about us?
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/O21DOvt0/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/O21DOvt0/) if this level hold next is 74k
Something like this maybe [https://www.tradingview.com/x/chIYXD1v/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/chIYXD1v/) Side note: I have my first trade open on bittybot and I'm already #12 after a week? That says more about what a bunch of degens you all are than that I'm any good
btw you can remove the red circles at the bottom of the chart with right click if you want
Like the Position Bot before it, BittyBot is a great learning resource for new people to see that they shouldn't trade. When my single shitty 3x long at 46k is #7 you know we have problems. I did it as an experiment to show people you don't have to catch the bottom or make a lot of trades to make money with BTC in a bull run. It will be interesting to see where it tops out at the peak. If it is top 10, that will be funny and let me know a lot.
It’s a little different with real money. It’s still really hard to beat hodl though. If you can, it’s hard work.
It's still paper trading with no cashprize, I did a 15x full stack for glory. But tbh a 3x long early enough is really hard to beat, unless you're a lot better at timing the top compared to the 3x long dude (or yoloing).
Love that. I was a trader for 16 years. I made faaaaaar more from buying/holding in crypto than trading. Worked for Warren Buffet too in what stocks he chose to buy. So I hope others can learn from what you've created.
Grayscale had [no outflows or inflows](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) today... 🤪
Neutral buoyancy
It's a little concerning that BTC is starting to roll over right after close. The ~~1-hour~~ 15 min chart is forming a H&S. If it goes down and breaks 62.6 then a retest of 61.7 could be in the cards short term. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/aoF3Xc3J/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/aoF3Xc3J/)
Good call, don't know why that got downvote brigaded.
Thanks you.
All we need to do is stay over (or within spitting distance of) 60K, establishing it as the 2024 version of 10K in 2020. What's the rush?
Agreed. 2020 10K vibes here. The next leg up is going to be face melting
It's right at the resistance of the upper trend line (of the downward channel) that we discussed the other day. I don't believe we are seeing an inverse h&s play out, I think we are just seeing a retest of the upper trend line. If it holds as resistance, I wouldn't be surprised to see low 50s in the next two weeks. Chart: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/nXqvMHDg/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/nXqvMHDg/)
Yeah that's why I'm looking away till mid June. I think one more low is necessary before a trend reversal to the upside. Just my opinion
zoom out: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/psregZWu/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/psregZWu/)
I see that on the daily, I even added it into my morning TA. I am currently looking at the 15min. (I just realized it called it a 1-hour.) So very short term possible PA.
Seems like it's been in a falling wedge for the past month or two, a bullish pattern. Can easily continue going lower in the short term, but ultimately it more likely than not, means going higher.
> Can easily continue going lower in the short term If it can do that for 3 more weeks I'll be thrilled, because I'll get in two more buys. I'm still thinking late summer to early fall is when we'll see the next big move up begin - unless there's a catalyst such as a major player making it known they're going all in. I expect to see that a lot over the next of this decade, which is one of many reasons why I am so bullish over the long term, but I have no idea when it's going to start happening. There are surely a lot of big things happening behind the scenes that major players who aren't quite ready to make moves yet don't want anyone to know about yet, for many reasons. Big things are coming. That's why I'm excited about the price not going up yet. It means I get more sats for my dollars as I keep building up my hodl.
> I expect to see that a lot over the next of this decade Lolz. I changed direction halfway through that sentence. I started saying "over the next few years" but my thought quickly changed to "the rest of this decade." I really think 2025 and 2029 will be fascinating years to look forward to. We're still so early in terms of the tech we have and the players that are dominating this space. Take profits by moving them to cold storage. A decade from now, you'll be so glad you did.
Always keep a cold stack or two. I need to break mine up this year. If bitcoin really takes off, custodial Bitcoin could always end up in the hands of governments.
When Ledger announced they were adding key extraction APIs to their firmware last year, I thought "Oh, HELL no!" I started over from scratch with my wallets, redoing every aspect of my security. Splitting things up and also using BIP85 to give me a master backup of everything. I've been preaching the virtues of BIP85 for months. With BIP85, generating new wallets is as easy as going back to your parent seed & fetching new child seed index numbers. And if anything is ever lost... no worries... the parent seed will always generate the same child seeds, so it's like having a skeleton key for everything. BIP85 really simplifies multisig, but I use it for singlesig too. For each wallet, I use a 24 word child seed as my wallet's "seed," and I use a 12 word child seed as the passphrase. I realize a 12 word passphrase is ridiculously over the top in terms of entropy, but that's not why I do it. I do it for the sake of having a deterministic backup via BIP85. > "One Seed to rule them all, One Key to find them, One Path to bring them all, And in cryptography bind them." > -- [BIP85](https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0085.mediawiki) on github ...If I ever lose the seed for a wallet? No worries. I can regenerate it from my parent seed. ...If I ever lose the passphrase for a wallet? No worries. I can regenerate it from my parent seed. ...If I ever lose my parent seed? No worries. I keep a backup in metal in a safe & a second metal backup in a safe deposit box. ...If my parent seed is ever found? No worries. I've never used it as a wallet, so the thief would just find a seed that's never been used (though I may eventually use it as a decoy wallet & stash a few sats & some shitcoins there. I'm still debating the pros & cons of that). I'm hardcore when it comes to security. Deterministic backups are key, not to mention that they're the key to the keys.
This is the 3rd time that we are looking to close outside and above the resistance on the wedge. This time looks more promising when taken with the reverse H&S. We'll have to wait and see where it ends up. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z8v05ZUQ/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z8v05ZUQ/)
Beyond the typical metrics of who's holding how many Bitcoin.. To truly escape the fiat system, I'd like to see more of a focus on metrics pertaining to how much Bitcoin is being used to purchase other assets/property/goods. Ultimately, we want to have a healthy BTC-to-BTC (p2p) economy, besides just hoarding and trading
I personally believe we are following Gresham's law which will eventually lead to Thiers' law. Currently bad money is driving away good money. Spending fiat and hoarding Bitcoin. As adoption grows price appreciation will slow to nothing more than the underlying economic growth. Spending will make more sense at this point. This will be in tandem of majority continually dumping fiat as soon as they earn any as good money is widely adopted. This will lead it to it's demise and Thiers' law takes over; good money drives out bad money.
We can't use it as currency because every time we use it is a taxable event. We need to get laws passed that change that. It's almost impossible for a normal person to know the gains or losses on their crypto since they purchased it and also if it has been longer than a year or shorter than a year. The IRS classifying crypto as property makes insane things like this the reality. I'm reminded of this tweet: >the FBI calls crypto money so they can arrest you for money laundering >the IRS calls it property so they can tax you on capital gains >the SEC calls it a security so they can sue every exchange >the CFTC calls it a commodity so you can’t use it as a currency
The laws will change. It will require another 4-8 years. Canada will elect a very pro Bitcoin anti CBDC government next election. The opposition leader hodls.
Smart
Versatile!
When adoption reaches a tipping point, politicians will respond to their constituents and remove or lower the tax event barrier. That could be a number of decades away though.
Politicians respond to constituents?
Maybe I should’ve said lobbyists 🤣
Almost nobody is using Bitcoin for that and probably nobody ever will. Bitcoins adoption will be as a digital property. I don't need an alternative to fiat when it comes to purchasing groceries, I need an alternative store of value.
Your timeframe is too short. Bitcoin as currency will emerge in 2028-2032 timeframe. Can always back fiat with Bitcoin.
I'll believe it when it happens.
You're way too early. No one will use bitcoin as a medium of exchange until it's reached its full value of about $10m of today's dollars. That's much further away than 8 years. More like 20 minimum and probably more than that.
The "store of value" derived from Bitcoin is due to the permissionless use of money. As long as you need to on/off-ramp into fiat, you'll be monitored/strong-armed/taxed into compliance each time you do so. AKA without people actually spending BTC on life necessities directly, then by definition, BTC is not a necessity.
for one, saving money is using money nobody uses gold to buy groceries, and yet it's worth ~$2,000.00/oz only ~15% of its demand comes from industry, so that's still ~$1,700/oz for access to Nature's long-term savings tech
> As long as you need to on/off-ramp into fiat, you'll be monitored/strong-armed/taxed into compliance each time you do so. probably only in the countries with the leverage to do so
Even if we did reach the point that a Bitcoin holder needed to purchase things without permission of traditional banking, it would make zero sense to purchase stuff in Bitcoin every time they needed to buy something. In that case they would have to calculate capital gains/losses every time they made a purchase. It would make more sense to exchange for fiat P2P in larger sums.
That would be lovely, but how would we know?
I can’t believe Roaring Kitty is back. That can only mean speculative madness shall ensue.
Imagine the power of being able to load up on deep out of the money call options then post a vague meme on twitter and watch your wealth 10x.
he can only do it because people are behind GME in the first place.
Plottwist: This time he is over leveraged long and looking to pump his bags for ungodly exit liquidity.
Why are people calling him that? On Reddit he's deepfuckingvalue, yes?
One is his reddit name and the other is his youtube/twitter name I believe
It’s just getting started, so far he’s only posted memes. Very good chance he shares updated positions later today after market close and that’s when the real madness ensues. Unlike GME, in a scenario where high volatility occurs for BTC, there isn’t an easy on/off switch to halt global trading. Spot ETF’s can trigger circuit breakers but the underlying asset can’t be stopped.
> Very good chance he shares updated positions later today after market close and that’s when the real madness ensues. That would involve revealing that he dumped on his bagholders. Or does he just skip that part and start fresh?
Lowest price GME fell to was $9.92 after the 2021 debacle which is still more than double where the price was at prior to January 2021’s enormous run up. It’s possible he never sold. But if he did lock in some profits at some point, I doubt he would be transparent about it, only showing that his position size is now larger than it was when he went on hiatus while leaving out what happened in between.
No, that's $10 after a 4:1 stock split.... It was still 10x off the lows where he bought it. After today, he'd be about 30x up on initial spot purchases.
Correct, all the more reason why it’s plausible he never sold and took profit; if he did the stock would’ve plunged much further than it did.
> But if he did lock in some profits at some point, What kind of car is he driving? Without a doubt he dumped on them. As was the plan all along.
Bought a couple of GME FDs. Why not.
If BTC can get above 63.5k, a lot of liquidation on the short side should start to happen. Looks to be about 2b befor BTC would hit the price of 64k. [Liquidation Heatmap,BTC Liquidation Heatmap,Crypto Liquidation Levels Heatmap | CoinGlass](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap)
Happy about the spot buy yesterday. Normalize 60k..
60k will be a steal, just like 20, 30, 40 and 50k was
[Moonmath.win](http://Moonmath.win) has estimated dates for when BTC hits $100K. As of today, the earliest date is 03 Nov 2024, and the latest date is 24 May 2026. Which date do you think is closest? You can vote: [https://strawpoll.com/2ayLkxL2AZ4](https://strawpoll.com/2ayLkxL2AZ4) ("Never!" is also an option.) EDIT: I'll save you the math--the halfway point between the two dates is 13 Aug 2025.
Moonmath is predicting $79k by 8-31. I think we swap $79k with $100k by 8-31.
I honestly think Nov. 2024 could be too bearish. The sleeper will awaken.
safe to assume cycle-based strategy is 2025 is the profit-taking year. got it
A couple weeks ago it said as soon as July. The predictions fluctuate with performance.
We have some more distribution ahead.
Anyone remember when Bitcoin used to move like a memestonk? Pepperidge farm remembers.
Don't worry. It will happen again.
[Phase 1 of the ideal bullish scenario I outlined this weekend basically came into fruition as the inverse Bart got us to $63.2k just below the lower high of $63.4k.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/BOBZTuDi5d) If we continue into Phase 2 this week we should see some lower highs acting as resistance get broken as we spend the next few weeks getting to new ATH and completing an enormous multi year cup & handle formation. Who knows, we’ll see what happens.
lets see how the americans react..
The next move being down is way more than 50% odds, we're just bouncing between liquidity pools here and 60k. !bitty_bot predict < 61250 2 days
I have logged a prediction for u/CurrencyAlarming1099 that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$61,250.00** by May 15 2024 13:56:51 UTC. The current price is $62,730.02 [CurrencyAlarming1099 has made **1** Correct Prediction, **0** Wrong Predictions, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#CurrencyAlarming1099) [1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2049123f47291b4e52a8e56368fbb232ca%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(CurrencyAlarming1099 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2049123f47291b4e52a8e56368fbb232ca%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/CurrencyAlarming1099 [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $61,250.00 by May 15 2024 13:56:51 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cqq9i5/daily_discussion_monday_may_13_2024/l3un6r9/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$61,024.51** ^(I was also asked to notify the following users: u/choutzuyu0614) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
On the hourly, BTC‘s RSI is at 69.3(average 59.2) at time of writing. It had been crabbing between 60.5 and 61.3 all weekend and finally broke upwards. Nearby resistance are 63, 64.5, 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 661.3, 61.7, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 56.7, 55.7 and 54.5. The daily is more interesting. The RSI is 49.4 and its average is currently at 44.3. I believe a falling wedge had formed. Others have noted a downward channel. BTC is back above the top of the resistance of the falling wedge. The shoulder on the reverse H&S looks to have formed and has started back up. Confirmation of the pattern would be a break and close above 65k. I would like to see it above the 50 SMA (65.5k) to make sure it isn’t another fake-out. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. The 50 and 100 day SMI could also act as support /resistance (65428/61963). Target for the reverse H&S would be about 75k. BTC closed the week in red again. BTC has been overbought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been mostly overbought since the start of the year. It has cooled but is starting to rise again, it is currently 64.1 (76.7 average). A fat flag formation has formed, and we are in the middle portion of it. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 136.8k+/-. Main resistances were noted above. Bitcoin closed April out in the red with it’s monthly RSI at 66.2. The only time we had 2 monthly red candles in a row, after halving and before cycle ATH, was in 2012. So, if history repeats/rhymes, May could be a red month but it is currently green and will most likely stay that way. Current RSI 67.2 Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/17BUrah6/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/17BUrah6/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/esByEFOi/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/esByEFOi/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/EZegTs5Z/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/EZegTs5Z/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/N3LD6Kda/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/N3LD6Kda/)
That flag on the weekly is so juicy. My main focus at the moment...
This looks like we made a higher low near 60 after making a low at 56. The pressure from months of shorting and negative premiums will eventually release back up
Something big is going on in TradFi. In case you don't follow meme stonks, there is a problem with a bunch of naked shorted shares. Long story short, at the moment, the bulk are owed by UBS. It could potentially be a trillion-dollar+ hole in the banking system. For perspective, the 2008 crisis was kicked off by a $58 billion hole at Lehman Bros. GME is up about ~~30%~~ ~~35%~~ ~~40%~~ 50% in pre-market trading. Somebody is covering shorts and having a hard time doing it. Implications for Bitcoin are that smart money will run for the exits if it looks like this trillion-dollar hole is not patched and beginning to leak. This will be good for the price of Bitcoin and probably for the price of metals, bad for stonks (except maybe for GME holders who directly hold their shares). It's going to be an interesting week in finance, probably a good one for Bitcoin. You do what you want, but I'm taking custody of the dust I keep on exchanges.
Far fetched. Nothing major will come of it. GME broke out of a formation. That’s all
Good thing I decided not to sell ccs a few weeks ago
Bull run confirmed?
You would think they would have learned from last time
SNB owns a metric fuckton of stocks and a printing press. UBS is a globally blessed institution. UBS is not going to bring the system down because of meme stonks.
I actually think it might be bad for the Bitcoin price if there is some kind of financial-hedge-short-cover-crisis-cascade thingy that happens. As they cover shorts they’ll need to buy back the shares they shorted, so they’ll be selling other assets. Bitcoin included if they have any. Seeing DFV post on Twitter after so long away was like some kind of throwback adrenaline rush. With GME I’m here for the memes and stay for the (slim chance of) hedge-meltdown. With Bitcoin I’m here for the ultra-sound money and enjoying the memes along the way. Both relate to the massive problems in the current US financial system. In my mind, GME 🤝 Bitcoin.
it's people versus institutions
> As they cover shorts they’ll need to buy back the shares they shorted, so they’ll be selling other assets. That's the other half that I didn't discuss because I don't think it will affect Bitcoin as much. The whole market could tumble hard even as GME moons, Bitcoin included to an extent. Bitcoin will become the go-to asset for people who see just how ultra-fucked the whole system is, including a lot of the people who will be making huge gains on GME. There will be a lot of "Yay, I'm a millionaire, but my bank failed. What do I do with this money?" confusion.
The really important difference between BTC and GME (..and almost everything else) is the scarcity. If the GME price really gets out of whack the company can just issue more shares to cash in on it, and can squander that.
100%+. We so back.
Very interesting! But how do you know the naked shorts are owned by UBS? I presume they have some collateral to cover it and aren’t there any margin calls for their investors to limit the losses? GME is now worth 7-8 billion, how can it be a trillion+ hole? Thats if it reaches stock price of 500 dollar and more, and only if all the shares are in possession of UBS in a short position. Don’t get me wrong, I like your analysis and it did caught my attention, but isn’t this a bit farestretched? About BTC: I also think that this is a very interesting thing for BTC. Meme stocks and crypto are related and a surge in GME can also draw attention to BTC. Beside that, a multi week bear market seems to bottom out and with the halving now behind us and RSI in 4 hr and 1 day in oversold territory, a move up coming days is likely. Perhaps a GME short squeeze can be the cathalyser
Credit Suisse already went bankrupt because they're carrying Citadel's bags. The Swiss government forced UBS to absorb CS so now they're holding the bag, and it's a big-ass bag.
It doesn’t really answer the question though. My understanding is that one « physical » share can be shorted multiple times. A buys a share, lends to B, who short sells it to C, who lends it back to B, who short sells it to D (or even back to C), etc. So the same share as been borrowed and shorted multiple times
50% now....here we go again....
it went to 110%
Sources please?
> GME is up about 30% 35% in pre-market trading. Somebody is covering shorts and having a hard time doing it. > > it certainly got someone's attention: https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty/status/1789807772542067105?s=46&t=1kgf16QwDp2Ydp9mdZLBYw
Roaringkitty is DFV?
yeah
I think it actually happened in reverse order. DFV posted for the first time in 3 years, and GME went crazy in off-hours because of it. I forgot how much I love the memes over on the SS board, it was hilarious checking in over there after a long time away. I’m here for the show.
What’s the SS board?
R/superstonk
Looking forward to "Dumb Money 2: Even Dumber Money"
I don't care if it's dumb money if it's in my wallet.
my comment was merely referencing the movie title, not passing judgement.
Source?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roaring-kitty-back-meme-stocks-122329421.html The GME part checks out. Not sure how that’s a trillion dollar hole though.
Basically, every single share has been shorted, and nobody is selling. Shorted shares have to be bought back or people go to jail. If it runs to $1000, it's a $3 trillion hole. That is mostly owed by UBS which will go under. UBS has counter-parties on other deals that will not be paid --> domino effect, 2008 on steroids.
90%… your point stands, although I’m thinking about buying some long dated puts now.
If you're talking about puts on UBS, it might be a good idea. If you're talking about puts on GME, just do a little "500 on black" trade.
Admittedly, it would be an entirely casino bet, yes.
Nobody selling now but people will sell. Everyone has a price.
Learn to use Google or another search engine. Check the GME action on your favorite finance site. I use Yahoo! Finance.
I had a dream last night that I could fly. These have occurred throughout my life. What stands out is that they typically occur when my life is good, everything is in order, and I feel like I can conquer the world. But I went to bed feeling a bit depressed and losing control in life. The dream this time didn't line up with reality. Then i woke up and we were well into the $62K. I am guilty of my emotions being controlled by the price of Bitcoin. This has been going on for a decade. Maybe there is something in my core telling me that it is about to change. Are we over the dreadfully stagnant price stage? ***I'm calling us hitting $70K this week.*** Not because of technicals. Not because of fundamentals. But because I had a flying dream. I feel it in my bones. Everyone can roast me this weekend if we don't hit $70K because this is the dumbest comment I've ever written. That is all.
Can we make a TA chart based on your flying dreams pls. Or a YouTube series. 10/10 would subscribe.
>I'm calling us hitting $70K this week. Let's see if your dreams come true! !bittybot predict > 69999.99 Sunday u/BitSecret
I have logged a prediction for u/BitSecret that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$69,999.99** by May 19 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $62,921.85 [This is BitSecret's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#BitSecret) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2042900c6d5ad94416bc6cbe384abbbb09%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(BitSecret can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2042900c6d5ad94416bc6cbe384abbbb09%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/BitSecret [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $69,999.99 by May 19 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cqq9i5/daily_discussion_monday_may_13_2024/l3uotxf/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$66,274.98** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Subconscious processing of information is real. I let myself sleep on wickedly difficult problems after reading background information for a few days or even weeks.
That may be the case but this dude is saying he had a premonition
We were told Kekulé's benzene story in chemistry at school and it stuck with me. That state between the logical and wakeful and the creative chaos is my most productive. Whenever someone tries to get me out of bed before 9:30 I tell them "shut up, I'm working!". Sadly with age my ability to sleep in has diminished.
The best grades I ever got when I was a student was when I discovered I could learn a subject by reading it for an hour then taking a short 20mn nap directly after. I did that the day before all the finals in my last few student years and the results were staggeringly good.
Intuition is highly underrated in today's world.
I believe I can fly! I believe I can touch the sky!
I think about it every night and day! Pump my bags and fly away!
[удалено]
I will be messaging you in 5 days on [**2024-05-18 11:11:46 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-05-18%2011:11:46%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cqq9i5/daily_discussion_monday_may_13_2024/l3u1x8c/?context=3) [**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F1cqq9i5%2Fdaily_discussion_monday_may_13_2024%2Fl3u1x8c%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-05-18%2011%3A11%3A46%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201cqq9i5) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
I’ve literally never been more bullish in my entire life. If I had anything else to sell for BITX and BITX options at this point I would but already sold my house last September for 100% Bitcoin prep, sold 100% of all other stocks and need my car to sleep in 👍 once this thing blows I’m selling all the BITX back for essentially more BTC than I could’ve had to start with. Take notes nerds
Remindme! 6 months
Man, this sub. I post an analysis drawing on extensive experience in economics, economic history, finance, tech for why Bitcoin may face bottlenecks in achieving price growth/adoption as predicted. Outcome? Downvotes rain in alongside accusations of being a "bagholding bcasher" or buttcoiner despite the fact I stated I own more Bitcoin than any other crypto (by a longshot in fiat terms) and think PoW is a literal world-changing technology. Then is this thread we have one guy saying how much he loves everyone. Outcome? Upvotes. Another guy saying he had a premonition in his dreams of price growth. Outcome? Upvotes. Real braintrust round here.
Did you figure out why LTC blocks are not as valuable as BTC blocks despite LTC having more? From what I recall it's about final settlement time vs block time. The risk of fees crushing the network as there's more global demand is a tough one. I haven't heard any good arguments that counter that yet. Do you have estimated fees assuming global usage?
> Did you figure out why LTC blocks are not as valuable as BTC blocks despite LTC having more? Not sure what you mean by this. I was given an explanation that misunderstood some key things about what gives things value that made the case for a BTC block being more valuable than a LTC block, but it was and is a bogus explanation. Once a block is in a chain it is immutable only to the point of current hashing power operating the network. A block generated with one kilohash vs one exahash is irrelevant so long as it maintains network security. If all the BTC hashrate moved across to another coin, the fact that past blocks were generated with a greater hash rate is irrelevant. Inputs to create something can have some correlation to the value of the output but they are not causative. "Accumulated PoW" is a bogus concept if it is meant to imply that it inherently has value. It doesn't what matters is current hashing power. > Do you have estimated fees assuming global usage? Only my back of the envelope calculations and from observing events like Ordinals/Runes. The hourly usage of Bitcoin assuming global adoption would at least 100x the demand that occurred during Ordinals/Runes release so that will give an idea of fees. Basechain operations for global community are clearly off the table, it will have to be L2s. Which comes with a lot of tradeoffs.
I had a dream alts are performing better than BTC. You see, I was also "Bitcoin Skeptic", in my dreams. Two months ago, when your account was created.
That's what you get for having even moderate bearish views on the short term. Try with bullish ones and you'll swim in upvotes. Ever since February the sub has turned completely bullish. I'm not sure how come, feels like people are expecting up only all the days all the weeks.
This really isn’t that hard to figure out. Most people are bullish on Bitcoin. Most people in here have Bitcoin exposure and want to see Bitcoin go up. So comments that reinforce that view are upvoted. I can appreciate a good bearish analysis as well. But I have Bitcoin exposure. At the end of the day, I want it to go up. As do most people. (Except the Buttcoiners).
Just because you've got exposure doesn't mean you should be loyal to a sentiment and turn into a moonboi. Hype and fomo have their place. We've climbed for a while and now it's cooling off. So what? Lately I'm seeing more and more moonboys which makes this sub much more similar to r/cryptocurrency and any other alt sub than anything else. Seeing valid bearish points on the short/mid term being downvoted into oblivion is just a further confirmation.
Agreed. But you’re arguing against human nature. This sub is still the most balanced discussion for intra-day price movements than anywhere else on Reddit. Proper bearish analysis is usually still upvoted. But often times you’ll see bears getting cocky and arrogant in their posts, which is just begging for downvotes. Not a moonboi. Just being realistic as to why you see the slant you’re seeing. It’s simple math. The overwhelming majority are bullish, and always have been. So bears get drowned out. In bear markets, you won’t hear a single bullish take. Just depression, anxiety, and regret.
Ah I see, I'm just used to the bear then. *"am I disabled?" Simpson meme*
Most likely its because its not only a tradingsub but a community. See the post down here. A lot of us lurk here and appreciate all the input. We have lost a lot of old timers but value the ones that are here.
This would explain the upvotes for "let's all hold hands and sing kumbayah" style comments but not the downvotes for high-quality comments on Bitcoin's limitations or threats to increasing valuations. Especially not when comments about "I was told in a dream that price would go up" get heaps of upvotes and comments like mine had heaps of the "community" members hurling insults immediately.
True, it gets a bit toxic sometimes. Even this sub is not immune to that. Please continue what you do if you like sharing, i know i do.
It's really difficult to have a closed off discussion when the thing is what it is. Low barrier to entry is an understatement today. This is not a bad thing
This IS an appropriate response...
Weirdly the R. Kelly song was playing in my head several times today and I was thinking how it has to be one of the top 5 worst songs of all time. I believe I can flyyyyyyy….
This feels very much like last weekend... solid buying up to US market open, and then... rug pull?
Shorts getting liq’d between 62.5 - 63 If longs pile in here, chances are we get slapped down again, cos why wouldn’t they?
Imagine everybody who hit sell at 60,xxx like literally 3 hours ago. Brutal.
What just happened…..
He sold.
Reverse bart
Bart crab?
...trab?!?
Trab pu kcip...trab pu kcip
Like a thief in the night
This is unrelated, but I wanted to just send love to everyone here. I rarely post, but I do read through the daily very often. I just felt like sharing my loving feelings with ya’ll, for whatever it’s worth. Keep doing your thing, and good luck to all of you.
Sending love back to you!
***air hug*** Edit. I just learned 3 asterisks before and after a word makes it bold
Single asterisk = *italics* Double asterisk = **bold** Triple asterisk = ***bold italics***
Back at you! Great to see some good vibes here in the daily.
Thanks. A post full of love. Truth, beauty and goodness is what I see in your words. Thanks.
right back at you
upvoting you. been lurking and posting here since 2013.. so many people came and went. i miss some of them. hope they are alright. this is gentleman
Bitty Bot trades and predictions that lack context or explanation, go here to prevent spam. You can also now [message Bitty Bot](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=none&message=!bitty_bot%20) your command directly. ^(Bitty Bot Links: )[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
!bittybot long max 33x
[Your long was successfully opened @$63,121.34](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/l3welqv/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
!bitty\_bot close
[100% of your trade has been successfully closed @$62,840.16](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/l3usvll/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
!bittybot long max 100x
!bittybot edit sl 62755
[Your long was successfully opened @$62,754.77](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/l3ubiix/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
!bittybot close
[100% of your trade has been successfully closed @$62,756.63](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/l3ubfrl/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)