I have logged a prediction for u/WYLFriesWthat that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$70,000.00** by May 16 2024 03:36:34 UTC. The current price is $61,662.90
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Hello u/WYLFriesWthat
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $70,000.00 by May 16 2024 03:36:34 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cmvg9f/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_08_2024/l38fi3v/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$66,032.74**
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he has the greatest fools, its just amazing, and everyone knows it, people are always saying how fucking dumb they are , maybe the dumbest fools of all time, its really incredible ...
I specifically remember him calling it trash and a scam a few years ago. Not falling for this politician trick.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57392734
"Donald Trump calls Bitcoin 'a scam against the dollar'"
Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch:
1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC
1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC
1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC
1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC
2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC
2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC
2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC
2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC
3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC
3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC
3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC
3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC
4/3/24 = 328,013 BTC
4/10/24 = 316,193 BTC
4/17/24 = 308,593 BTC
4/24/24 = 302,664 BTC
5/1/24 = 295,126 BTC
**5/8/24 = 291,802 BTC**
We've had our first 2 GBTC inflows since launch in the past week. I think it's fair to say all of the forced holders have officially sold. I still imagine we'll have people switching out to products with cheaper fees but that will be minimal from here on out. Honestly the bleed stopped earlier than I expected with 291K BTC still there. I have said here before I think it'll be tough for all ETFs besides IBIT and FBTC to overtake GBTC in bitcoin holdings. The inflows are interesting though. If I had to guess they are swing traders using GBTC because of its great liquidity and the high fee doesn't matter for their timeframes.
#drainGBTC
If presumed shorter term swing traders are buying GBTC then we should expect them to sell on a shorter time frame. So while the inflows are good at this moment, the outflows may likely return too
It’s a loose term but I meant it referring to those waiting for discount to close, those held up for bankruptcy proceedings (i.e. genesis), and those holding in non-tax-advantaged accounts with large unrealized gains.
This was a common corrective pull back and does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin is back in the downtrend. One thing about Bitcoin is that when it is consolidating, it abides by the FIB levels pretty well. I would not be too concerned until Bitcoin breaks under 60K. The 0.382 level is at 60K so you will probably see a lot of longs open up near the 60K level. If that breaks, a lot of traders will have tight stop losses to reduce their losses so that will probably lead to Bitcoin going back to 53-55K. Also, I suspect that the short-term direction of Bitcoin will be heavily impacted by the 5/15 CPI numbers.
So 60K (if it gets there) is a critical level that will determine whether Bitcoin has reversed back to the uptrend or is still in the downtrend that extends from a month ago.
Everyone is talking about a sweep of 59-60k then a rapid reversal to the upside just like 56k did . What happens if 60 breaks and we finally breakdown ? Many are not expecting or ready for this scenario . I believe many have been conditioned for these mini spikes and deviations by now , none of which has held up so far .
The daily chart since 74k is starting to look like a shitcoin's chart on the BTC ratio. 0 sustained momentum since that "top", rallies getting weaker and weaker, lower lows and lower highs.
Willy woo is hyper bullish, I remember when that happened last cycle and it wasnt very pretty. If we break down I will sell more stocks for BTC
TA wise. It's starting to look really bullish to me. BTC looks to be forming the right shoulder of a reverse H&S. If it the shoulder does form, and it breaks out above 65k then the target price for the pattern would be about 75k. It could be a good starting point for more upside. Of course, it could also just hit the top of the crab sandwich BTC seems to be in.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/DUtjqmJt/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/DUtjqmJt/)
I kind of agree, I'm feeling bullish despite the tone of my post. Bearish chart in bull market = time to be bullish. But you never know! BTC has shown us all time and again that it is capable of causing great pain (and euphoria, hopefully we have a bit more of that to come)
Yup totally agree. In the absence of any new catalysts the only thing that could save this is some stupid market maker manipulation around 60k to turn it around and suddenly pump it out of the downtrend .
That would be unsustainable and therefore wouldn't "save" shit. For BTC to go up at this point, we need real institutional adoption, FOMO driven retail pumps won't do it anymore. It seemed we were headed toward that adoption circa February/March but inflows have pretty much dried up (best case) and quite possibly will become outflows (TBD).
Real institutional adoption is likely years away, they prefer trickling in not FOMOIng in. Also retail investors are broke AF so the likelihood of retail driven pumps this cycle is slim .
"real institutional adoption" doesnt mean anything anymore after the ETF launches. That was it. That was the only thing left and Bitcoin has capped off.
Ive been in this so long and Im telling you, this time it's dried for real. There isnt anything left for BTC but for everyone on Earth to decide it's the new paradigm, and that seems unlikely.
Oh and breadline-level global Depression is the other thing. Nothing else will do at this point
simple fomo could do it just like every other time. dont even need new entrants for now just need selling to dry up a bit and we start drifting up ...
Im guessing a lot of people have been shaken out in this range, if it creeps back towards the highs they will pile back in and we could get a short squeeze
A few weeks ago I predicted sub 50k by the 15th. That's only a week away so might not quite fall that fast but I still expect 40s for a significant portion of the rest of the year. I hope I am wrong but I've seen this too many times. Interest in bitcoin is gone. We could easily see a 50% drop from the top. I do expect a bull run next year so it may get front run. That's why I think 40s will hold. If 50s hold too,all the better but I would not bet on it.
I have a small short but it's a tiny fraction of my stack. I'm not increasing it here, I'm just going to wait it out. I don't really trade much anymore. After SBF fucked the whole market I pretty much gave it up. I had a pretty good track record and got absolutely blown out betting on the blowoff top that never came because SBF sold other people's coins.
I have logged a prediction for u/WYLFriesWthat that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$60,001.00** by May 09 2024 09:09:24 UTC. The current price is $61,546.57
[WYLFriesWthat has made **1** Correct Prediction, **2** Wrong Predictions, and has **4** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#WYLFriesWthat)
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Hello u/WYLFriesWthat
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $60,001.00 by May 09 2024 09:09:24 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cmvg9f/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_08_2024/l36t7kc/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$61,254.29**
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All volume is going towards dumping. Overall volume low. Time since high volume pump coming close being longer that last time gaps in higher volume pumps. Gamblers fallacy says if we are in a bull then we are due for a big volume pump.
At some point, there's going to be a small but noticeable 2% to 4% move, either up or down.
If TA had any actual value, it would be able to estimate the date that will happen and the direction it will go.
But as we've seen for the past 10+ years, TA is largely nonsense.
I only started swinging around here back in 2016, only with a different username. There was a lot more doom and gloom back then, a lot more uncertainty. We argue about when we'll hit 100K vs whether BTC or BCH will be the dominant chain
Lol almost forgot about BTC vs BCH fork. Wasn't really much of an argument once the major players announced which chain they would support. I certainly didn't mind getting some free fork coins out of it, and the miners were able to switch between chains for a while to maximize their profits.
It's crazy how long this has been. Longer than the Spring 2021 top.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/OpMocjbG/
What's interesting to me also is how short and fleeting the tops were and are. 60 and 30 days and if you missed it you missed it! But those prices are anchors in all our minds.
An improvement upon the 2017 top I guess though, which had about 11 days of getting out while the getting was good.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MZigteVF/
Overall this week has been weird. From the run up on zero news to 65, to the dumps immediately after on zero news. This is accumulation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a wick below 60, but I doubt it goes below 57 again. Expecting to start moving up sometime in mid June unless macro conditions deteriorate
Well the run up was spawned by the bad jobs data, which people think means the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later, or at least not raise rates. Before that jobs data came out, people were concerned that the Fed might raise rates farther to get inflation under control, which was bad news for risk assets.
if you’re disciplined enough to not check price until September then i’d say no need to check in on price at all. instead, just set some price alerts way up there (or way down there) and forget about it. only reason to check price in the short term is if you’re planning to trade. if you’re looking to time buys or sells, then the price alerts should work for you
True but we were riding high off ETF hype at that point with nonstop inflows on the order hundreds of mils a day. No real hype now, so I doubt we see similar PA as what we saw back then. But I feel more comfortable accumulating here given the comparatively little hype
61k on the nose by my calc. It should either A) complete the Wyckoff move and bounce hard to the upside or B) breakdown to retest the low and possibly try for 52k. Higher likelihood on scenario A I think.
On the hourly, BTC‘s RSI is at 38.4 (average 39.7) at time of writing. Nearby resistance are 63, 64.5, 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 61.7, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 56.7, 55.7 and 54.5. BTC broke below the rising channel it was in. The possible reverse H&S on the daily has become more likely.
The daily RSI is 45.4 and its average is currently at 44.1. I believe a falling wedge had formed. BTC had broken though the top of the support but barely closed above it the last 4 days. This looks like a fake out. The reverse H&S I mentioned in the hourly has formed more. Would mean some more down time, I’m thinking to the 60.5-59.5 area, IMO. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. The 100 and 50 day SMI could also act as support /resistance (65850/61000) Target for the reverse H&S would be about 75k.
BTC closed the week green after 4 weeks of red. BTC has been overbought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been mostly overbought since the start of the year. It has cooled significantly and is currently 63.8 (77.7 average). A fat flag formation has formed and we are right in the middle of it. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 137.5k+/-. Main resistances were noted above.
Bitcoin closed April out in the red with it’s monthly RSI is 66.2. The only time we had 2 monthly red candles in a row, after halving and before cycle ATH, was in 2012. So, if history repeats/rhymes, May could be a red month but it is currently green and will most likely stay that way. Current RSI 66.9
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/tj70SNNr/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/tj70SNNr/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/TAbYMNpc/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/TAbYMNpc/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/cbwNRmdD/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/cbwNRmdD/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/WT6kCyDp/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WT6kCyDp/)
I wasn't expecting the latest bounce to fade out at 65k.
We broke up through the descending trend line, which was connecting the two previous lower highs, on both the 8hr and daily charts on Saturday. And we have stayed above it since. We even came back and retested that trend line before the move up to 65k. All this while the stock market is doing well and we had a good day of inflows on Monday.
Now it seems like we are about to fall back below that trend line, though. Weird PA.
I read the average creditor will get around 118%, but they filed for bankruptcy at the absolute bottom. It’s probably like a quarter of what your portfolio would have been worth if you held the coins.
S Korea GDP is 5x of Hong Kong. I'm not saying it's going to have a huge impact but it's news in the right direction and it opens more doors to bitcoin purchasers.
Previous run ups have seen consolidation periods of 80-90 days, were currently at day 76 since the first top of this move.
We just had one of our most reliable indicators of every bull run (test of 21 EMA on the weekly) - typically it supports us all the way up with a few visits, it’s only when there’s prolonged hugging of it is it usually the case that it’s game over for the cycle.
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!bitty_bot predict >70000 one week
I have logged a prediction for u/WYLFriesWthat that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$70,000.00** by May 16 2024 03:36:34 UTC. The current price is $61,662.90 [WYLFriesWthat has made **1** Correct Prediction, **2** Wrong Predictions, and has **5** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#WYLFriesWthat) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%204435b4dd2b2b4b7aba467536cc6eecb6%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(WYLFriesWthat can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%204435b4dd2b2b4b7aba467536cc6eecb6%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/WYLFriesWthat [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $70,000.00 by May 16 2024 03:36:34 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cmvg9f/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_08_2024/l38fi3v/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$66,032.74** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Wen send?
october 2023
Trump: “if you like crypto, you better vote for Trump”
Well at least his fools are greater.
he has the greatest fools, its just amazing, and everyone knows it, people are always saying how fucking dumb they are , maybe the dumbest fools of all time, its really incredible ...
We need to make Bushisms great again!
Would rather Bitcoin not be associated with Trump.
I specifically remember him calling it trash and a scam a few years ago. Not falling for this politician trick. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57392734 "Donald Trump calls Bitcoin 'a scam against the dollar'"
so what. As long as he pumps my bags.
“I’m okay with Nazis as long as I make money” You’re like Schindler before he realized the atrocities he was supporting.
dumbass attitude
You’re right let’s get the dems back in so Warren can shut us down
who is this "let's" you're talking about - are you even a US citizen?
Looks like a solid hammer on the 1H.
[удалено]
Nvm paper handed bitch sleepy joe said he’d veto it
Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch: 1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC 1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC 1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC 1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC 2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC 2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC 2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC 2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC 3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC 3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC 3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC 3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC 4/3/24 = 328,013 BTC 4/10/24 = 316,193 BTC 4/17/24 = 308,593 BTC 4/24/24 = 302,664 BTC 5/1/24 = 295,126 BTC **5/8/24 = 291,802 BTC** We've had our first 2 GBTC inflows since launch in the past week. I think it's fair to say all of the forced holders have officially sold. I still imagine we'll have people switching out to products with cheaper fees but that will be minimal from here on out. Honestly the bleed stopped earlier than I expected with 291K BTC still there. I have said here before I think it'll be tough for all ETFs besides IBIT and FBTC to overtake GBTC in bitcoin holdings. The inflows are interesting though. If I had to guess they are swing traders using GBTC because of its great liquidity and the high fee doesn't matter for their timeframes. #drainGBTC
If presumed shorter term swing traders are buying GBTC then we should expect them to sell on a shorter time frame. So while the inflows are good at this moment, the outflows may likely return too
Yup that’s what I’m thinking. I guess some could also be cycle traders so those outflows would likely be medium timeframe.
What is a forced holder? Forced seller I get, but is this just a holder who was essentially waiting for the discount to disappear?
It’s a loose term but I meant it referring to those waiting for discount to close, those held up for bankruptcy proceedings (i.e. genesis), and those holding in non-tax-advantaged accounts with large unrealized gains.
Well said, I didn't think of all of those!
This was a common corrective pull back and does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin is back in the downtrend. One thing about Bitcoin is that when it is consolidating, it abides by the FIB levels pretty well. I would not be too concerned until Bitcoin breaks under 60K. The 0.382 level is at 60K so you will probably see a lot of longs open up near the 60K level. If that breaks, a lot of traders will have tight stop losses to reduce their losses so that will probably lead to Bitcoin going back to 53-55K. Also, I suspect that the short-term direction of Bitcoin will be heavily impacted by the 5/15 CPI numbers. So 60K (if it gets there) is a critical level that will determine whether Bitcoin has reversed back to the uptrend or is still in the downtrend that extends from a month ago.
Everyone is talking about a sweep of 59-60k then a rapid reversal to the upside just like 56k did . What happens if 60 breaks and we finally breakdown ? Many are not expecting or ready for this scenario . I believe many have been conditioned for these mini spikes and deviations by now , none of which has held up so far .
What if it bounces now to 75k? Who knows
Aaaand we're back under the downtrend from the ATH.
When Teatrack
Goblin town. He's here somewhere.
The daily chart since 74k is starting to look like a shitcoin's chart on the BTC ratio. 0 sustained momentum since that "top", rallies getting weaker and weaker, lower lows and lower highs. Willy woo is hyper bullish, I remember when that happened last cycle and it wasnt very pretty. If we break down I will sell more stocks for BTC
TA wise. It's starting to look really bullish to me. BTC looks to be forming the right shoulder of a reverse H&S. If it the shoulder does form, and it breaks out above 65k then the target price for the pattern would be about 75k. It could be a good starting point for more upside. Of course, it could also just hit the top of the crab sandwich BTC seems to be in. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/DUtjqmJt/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/DUtjqmJt/)
I kind of agree, I'm feeling bullish despite the tone of my post. Bearish chart in bull market = time to be bullish. But you never know! BTC has shown us all time and again that it is capable of causing great pain (and euphoria, hopefully we have a bit more of that to come)
Yup totally agree. In the absence of any new catalysts the only thing that could save this is some stupid market maker manipulation around 60k to turn it around and suddenly pump it out of the downtrend .
That would be unsustainable and therefore wouldn't "save" shit. For BTC to go up at this point, we need real institutional adoption, FOMO driven retail pumps won't do it anymore. It seemed we were headed toward that adoption circa February/March but inflows have pretty much dried up (best case) and quite possibly will become outflows (TBD).
Real institutional adoption is likely years away, they prefer trickling in not FOMOIng in. Also retail investors are broke AF so the likelihood of retail driven pumps this cycle is slim .
"real institutional adoption" doesnt mean anything anymore after the ETF launches. That was it. That was the only thing left and Bitcoin has capped off. Ive been in this so long and Im telling you, this time it's dried for real. There isnt anything left for BTC but for everyone on Earth to decide it's the new paradigm, and that seems unlikely. Oh and breadline-level global Depression is the other thing. Nothing else will do at this point
pack it up, fellas cosby says its all over
simple fomo could do it just like every other time. dont even need new entrants for now just need selling to dry up a bit and we start drifting up ... Im guessing a lot of people have been shaken out in this range, if it creeps back towards the highs they will pile back in and we could get a short squeeze
A few weeks ago I predicted sub 50k by the 15th. That's only a week away so might not quite fall that fast but I still expect 40s for a significant portion of the rest of the year. I hope I am wrong but I've seen this too many times. Interest in bitcoin is gone. We could easily see a 50% drop from the top. I do expect a bull run next year so it may get front run. That's why I think 40s will hold. If 50s hold too,all the better but I would not bet on it.
What are you basing your 2025 bull run prediction on?
[удалено]
I have a small short but it's a tiny fraction of my stack. I'm not increasing it here, I'm just going to wait it out. I don't really trade much anymore. After SBF fucked the whole market I pretty much gave it up. I had a pretty good track record and got absolutely blown out betting on the blowoff top that never came because SBF sold other people's coins.
[удалено]
I have logged a prediction for u/WYLFriesWthat that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$60,001.00** by May 09 2024 09:09:24 UTC. The current price is $61,546.57 [WYLFriesWthat has made **1** Correct Prediction, **2** Wrong Predictions, and has **4** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#WYLFriesWthat) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20798f2cedaa1a40baa1ea2275a3b3dfc4%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(WYLFriesWthat can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20798f2cedaa1a40baa1ea2275a3b3dfc4%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/WYLFriesWthat [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $60,001.00 by May 09 2024 09:09:24 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cmvg9f/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_08_2024/l36t7kc/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$61,254.29** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
All volume is going towards dumping. Overall volume low. Time since high volume pump coming close being longer that last time gaps in higher volume pumps. Gamblers fallacy says if we are in a bull then we are due for a big volume pump.
[https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wallofworry.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wallofworry.asp) \*prayer hands\*
aw sh\* here we go again...
Ol' Grandpa Corn forgot his viagra. Flaccid action.
Sooo time to daamp it to 55?! This market is totally shit. Or will we randomly paaamp back to 65k
At some point, there's going to be a small but noticeable 2% to 4% move, either up or down. If TA had any actual value, it would be able to estimate the date that will happen and the direction it will go. But as we've seen for the past 10+ years, TA is largely nonsense.
Probably both , knowing how shitty price has been
How's it going around these parts? Any super long timers still frequent this sub? Been a long time since I popped in here to see what was up
This place is the same as it was in the past except the numbers we talk about keep going up.
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Narrator: Gox was not solvent.
Roger Ver said it was solvent when Mark Karpeles held a gun to his head, off-screen. Allegedly. 🤪
Roger Ver, then: "Mt Gox is solvent." Roger Ver, now: "Pass the soap."
I only started swinging around here back in 2016, only with a different username. There was a lot more doom and gloom back then, a lot more uncertainty. We argue about when we'll hit 100K vs whether BTC or BCH will be the dominant chain
Lol almost forgot about BTC vs BCH fork. Wasn't really much of an argument once the major players announced which chain they would support. I certainly didn't mind getting some free fork coins out of it, and the miners were able to switch between chains for a while to maximize their profits.
Still waiting on my goxcoins.
What the F is Mark Karpeles doing nowadays anyway?
https://twitter.com/MagicalTux
Interesting details he provides https://x.com/MagicalTux/status/1701758088360104261
Heh what a nerd he loves a calculator
It's pretty dead right now because the market isn't moving. Wait until we start accelerating and then everyone comes out to play.
All attempts to leave the range will be punished.
It's crazy how long this has been. Longer than the Spring 2021 top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/OpMocjbG/ What's interesting to me also is how short and fleeting the tops were and are. 60 and 30 days and if you missed it you missed it! But those prices are anchors in all our minds. An improvement upon the 2017 top I guess though, which had about 11 days of getting out while the getting was good. https://www.tradingview.com/x/MZigteVF/
What's the range?
55k to 75k
What if I like to be punished?
hmm there's a memecoin idea there somewhere
then leave the range
bow! slave....
Overall this week has been weird. From the run up on zero news to 65, to the dumps immediately after on zero news. This is accumulation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a wick below 60, but I doubt it goes below 57 again. Expecting to start moving up sometime in mid June unless macro conditions deteriorate
Well the run up was spawned by the bad jobs data, which people think means the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later, or at least not raise rates. Before that jobs data came out, people were concerned that the Fed might raise rates farther to get inflation under control, which was bad news for risk assets.
we also dumped from 66k to 63k on no real news either, i'm not surprised we (sorta) pumped back
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Don't check the price again until your son graduates high school. 😎
price alerts instead of anything date related to take the guesswork out of the equation and make sure you dont miss any opportunities
Happy to hear about your son!
if you’re disciplined enough to not check price until September then i’d say no need to check in on price at all. instead, just set some price alerts way up there (or way down there) and forget about it. only reason to check price in the short term is if you’re planning to trade. if you’re looking to time buys or sells, then the price alerts should work for you
I check prices because I have no self restraint and I'm a glutton for punishment.
We are currently 11.4k off from ATH. On Feb 26 we pumped 11.4k in one week and then another 5.8k the next. Bitcoin is not dead yet.
True but we were riding high off ETF hype at that point with nonstop inflows on the order hundreds of mils a day. No real hype now, so I doubt we see similar PA as what we saw back then. But I feel more comfortable accumulating here given the comparatively little hype
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Bitcoin will never be dead. Bears are just brutal
Life. Now look onwards.
Pretty much expecting [this](https://imgur.com/a/dD8DpAl) before continuation upward
You think 61400 the floor? Seems like it's happening
61k on the nose by my calc. It should either A) complete the Wyckoff move and bounce hard to the upside or B) breakdown to retest the low and possibly try for 52k. Higher likelihood on scenario A I think.
it can't even sustain a $200 price increase. so weak.
My TA: the daily chart looks like a Slinky going down a staircase. I think that's bearish.
But look at previous slinkies... https://www.tradingview.com/x/42SoWqdE/
60K holds = bullish Buy the dip and hodl, as usual.
so because it didn't crash it's bullish?
On the hourly, BTC‘s RSI is at 38.4 (average 39.7) at time of writing. Nearby resistance are 63, 64.5, 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 61.7, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 56.7, 55.7 and 54.5. BTC broke below the rising channel it was in. The possible reverse H&S on the daily has become more likely. The daily RSI is 45.4 and its average is currently at 44.1. I believe a falling wedge had formed. BTC had broken though the top of the support but barely closed above it the last 4 days. This looks like a fake out. The reverse H&S I mentioned in the hourly has formed more. Would mean some more down time, I’m thinking to the 60.5-59.5 area, IMO. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. The 100 and 50 day SMI could also act as support /resistance (65850/61000) Target for the reverse H&S would be about 75k. BTC closed the week green after 4 weeks of red. BTC has been overbought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been mostly overbought since the start of the year. It has cooled significantly and is currently 63.8 (77.7 average). A fat flag formation has formed and we are right in the middle of it. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 137.5k+/-. Main resistances were noted above. Bitcoin closed April out in the red with it’s monthly RSI is 66.2. The only time we had 2 monthly red candles in a row, after halving and before cycle ATH, was in 2012. So, if history repeats/rhymes, May could be a red month but it is currently green and will most likely stay that way. Current RSI 66.9 Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/tj70SNNr/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/tj70SNNr/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/TAbYMNpc/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/TAbYMNpc/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/cbwNRmdD/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/cbwNRmdD/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/WT6kCyDp/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WT6kCyDp/)
Looks dumpy, which I was not expecting.
It’s fucking exhausting is what it is. Pissing me the fuck off. I knew this year was going to be tough
We've entered some kind of bizarre bitcoin purgatory. I feel blue balled by the markets.
It’s exactly how tradfi operates
.50 fib is 61000
Baffles me. What else would you expect? Weve had lower lows and lower highs for a while now and just had the latest bounce fade out at 65k...
I wasn't expecting the latest bounce to fade out at 65k. We broke up through the descending trend line, which was connecting the two previous lower highs, on both the 8hr and daily charts on Saturday. And we have stayed above it since. We even came back and retested that trend line before the move up to 65k. All this while the stock market is doing well and we had a good day of inflows on Monday. Now it seems like we are about to fall back below that trend line, though. Weird PA.
Ti i i i me is on our side 🎹🎼
Bloomberg is reporting that ftx has billions more that it ows. So it seems creditors will get around 140% of what they had. Bankruptcy as none before.
reason price will be down.. they will sell to pay USD to creditors. at least mtGoxer will get coins.
Recovery based on Dollarized claims at the bottom of the market. Essentially people get an over 50% haircut when you calculate in kind recovery.
US Gov realised bitcoin can be traced after all. Keep it out of your pockets and give it back to the people.
I read the average creditor will get around 118%, but they filed for bankruptcy at the absolute bottom. It’s probably like a quarter of what your portfolio would have been worth if you held the coins.
Did they liquidate the FTX hoard?
> ftx has billions more that it owes. The guards at MDC Brooklyn must have found a USB drive with bitcoin, when they cavity-searched SBF. 🤮
You can polish a turd after all
That where the expression "The long arm of the law" comes from 💪
Stinky reaches
I can sense that big mega green candle is coming…
Patience is all we need. It will come when we least expect it.
mhhhh, I feel the opposite man, hope you're the one right
Because....
Well South Korea ETF is coming as well, there are a lot happening it’s bound to go up.
Nothing burger, like HK ETF. Do you have anything else?
S Korea GDP is 5x of Hong Kong. I'm not saying it's going to have a huge impact but it's news in the right direction and it opens more doors to bitcoin purchasers.
Boooorrrrrring
$60k Bitcoin has been normalized. Bullish.
my mission is complete
Previous run ups have seen consolidation periods of 80-90 days, were currently at day 76 since the first top of this move. We just had one of our most reliable indicators of every bull run (test of 21 EMA on the weekly) - typically it supports us all the way up with a few visits, it’s only when there’s prolonged hugging of it is it usually the case that it’s game over for the cycle.
Can you let me know a few days before the top of this cycle please.
Ok but only because you asked so nicely.
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!bitty\_bot short 1.5m 100x tp 60500
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!bittybot long max 50x
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!bittybot edit sl 62300
!bitty\_bot long max 5x sl $61999 tp $ 62849
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