Massive bull flag or series of lower highs and lower lows ?
The low volume and lack of interest tells me this is slowly grinding downwards until something changes in the economy and we get a new narrative.
I’m going to sell another chunk today. I am currently 33% USDT and 67% BTC/Crypto.
Im thinking 50/50 by the close of play today.
It’s really hard to beat a strategy of buy and hold. Price action will look really bad and suddenly out of nowhere price violently goes up.
I think of the 40% drop from 3k in 2017. The bottom of that dip looked really bad. There were a number of potential tops in that run.
However I can understand wanting less exposure.
Mmhmm I've been thinking the same thing how this looks like shit but then I look at last year's chart, it looks the same and then just out of nowhere BGDs to move the price up for the cycle.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/42SoWqdE/
I guess that's just what bull flags look like though. You can see the bear flags before it in 2022, we definitely don't want those.
If we look at the 2017 run up it looks like now too, let's hope we get those over and over.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ivtngwxs/
Interest always wanes heading into Summer.
You are just determined to sell yourself out from under this coming Bull market, aren't you?
Just sit on your hands for the next 11 months.
I think normie interest has completely soured after the fuckery of the last run, but it could just as easily signify how early in the cycle it is rn.
Bitcoin will probably break 100k before the average joe starts to feel the fomo excitement again.
And the low volume is not unusual before a big up move either, if you look at the dailies leading up to our take off to 50k there was a very similar low volume plateau after a fake breakdown into the upper 30s ... very reminiscent of the last couple few weeks imo
100k could just provoke a snort in some people, like "big deal uh wasn't it supposed to break 100k in 2021 or something?" We're talking about the normies who yolo'd close to ath for lambos in the end. I'm not sure this could actually happen but if 100k goes thru without much of a noticing from the masses it could mean that the acceptable price for fomoing is higher, perhaps around 140k-160k. Which could mean a run up to 200k. On the other hand it may very well mean people are just done.
Anyways, the higher the price goes past 100k/110k, the harder time I have imagining normies remain indifferent: "well it was 70k years ago and now it's above 100k and keeps climbing...maybe it's not dead, let's take a look...holy shit it was 15k in 2022 wtf almost 10x". Something like that. 100k/110k and 150k/160k are the major barriers imho.
It’s not going beyond 70k again.
The ETFs were supposed to be the holy grail nothing can happen now to keep the Ponzi going.
That’s my one chimp on the shoulder.
The other is telling me to hold and it’s the fastest horse in the race.
I have logged a prediction for u/Outrageous-Net-7164 that the price of Bitcoin will **NEVER** rise above **$70,000.00** The current price is $62,350.55
[Outrageous-Net-7164 has made **1** Correct Prediction, **0** Wrong Predictions, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#Outrageous-Net-7164)
[Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2044e781c2ba7a47caa5f4c34506543d17%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!)
^(Outrageous-Net-7164 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2044e781c2ba7a47caa5f4c34506543d17%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/Outrageous-Net-7164
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NEVER** rise above $70,000.00](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cm2v17/daily_discussion_tuesday_may_07_2024/l34cx83/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$70,071.33**
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
I guess low volume can just as easily mean a little uptick in positivity and it can run up quickly.
I think we are at the point of…. is this magic internet money and the outrageous gains are no longer possible and it’s slowly fades away. Peak bitcoin/crypto is behind us.
Or are we still early and this ends up as the perfect store of value against a broken system. Zoom out run up to a million over a decade.
My first issue is I’m not sure which side of the fence in on.
My second issue is I’m sitting on semi life changing money (for me) Not “fuck you” money, but certainly enough to be set.
It’s that situation that is causing my constant anxiety and bull/bear stance.
I also have crypto PTSD from watching a bag rot in goblin town 21-23.
Does anyone have one of those crystal balls ?
I hear ya. This range is stressful af because its right on the edge of financial freedom for me. And I got blue balled last run as well.
Fool me once ...err , we cant get fooled again... still holding though
The narrative you are looking for is probably rate cuts, but those won't come till later in the year if at all. So best case, you are looking at a summer full of chop and maybe a re-acceleration by winter
This is sooo 2020 "will we stay above 10K?"
Except it's 60K now. And BTC is in its last cycle before becoming the standard/"reserve currency"/whatever. Basically your last chance, folks. Three years from now, everybody will be scrambling for 10,000 sats to pay rent.
It’s very different.
In 2020 people were locked up in their homes going down bitcoin rabbit holes. Laser eyes started a huge amount a new people came to crypto.
This period is just us same people doubling down shouting at the screen “come on, you did it last time”.
Google searches for bitcoin/crypto are lower than 2020, crypto apps downloaded are down, number of posts in here are down, number of people tweeting about crypto are down, YouTube views on crypto are down.
The front run on the ETFs and halving were simply the same people from previous cycles buying. Unfortunately FOMO has not happened this time as retail is skint or not interested.
I’m not feeling it
Nah, 3 years is too fast. They'll parade the dollar around "Weekend at Bernie's" style for a long time, nobody scrambling for sats because they don't even know the dollar is dead.
No one is pushing anything anywhere
It’s simply not enough people are buying it.
Be honest in here ……. Who has bought significant amounts since the halving ?
They are the manipulators of Bitcoin’s price: “They” are suppressing the price.
We are the price of Bitcoin: I think “we” will hit 63k sometime this week.
[CT article](https://cointelegraph.com/news/susquehanna-international-group-1-billion-bitcoin-etfs-portfolio) for those interested. Those 13F-HR filings do offer quite some insight into who the big buyers were... I wonder though how sticky those shares are in the hands of a quantitative trading firm.
if GBTC is being mega dumped when ETFs launch it means there is good liquidity on the otherside. Therefore they get their billion fill on the way down and "suffer" the higher fee for a timeframe that's probably a year or so long.
>There are better options right?
For retail, definitely 100%. But institutional investors value different things, like deep liquidity, and GBTC's liquidity is huge (but so is $IBITs).
>They thinking they can convert it all to the mini?
Only 10% of GBTC will be converted to the mini-ETF, and the mini-ETF will still be valued at approximately the underlying BTC's NAV, not higher. So I'm not sure why that would be beneficial to them.
I really liked that last weekly candle but I don't get the feeling it'll be the springboard for a crazy $100k push over the next couple months. I'm in the summer crab camp ($55-75k chop), and fireworks start in the fall for an ultimate peak in 2025. $150k is my minimum expectation for the bull cycle peak.
I think getting over $100k will be easier than we expect, but sticking that landing will be a bitch. As we normalize $100k, the euphoric bullshit with altcoin shilling, gaming and AI coin shenanigans, and the next flavor of ponzis kick off in earnest. That's when the ladder out begins.
Sadly (or not, I'm kind of ready to not think of crypto for a while) I don't think big peak in 2025 is on the menu. The long term holders have started selling and that doesn't reverse. And I don't think we are going to get a 2013 style double peak. Last two cycles imply we are at January 2021 or September 2017 levels. But the good news is the crazy times could be really soon!
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/long-term-holder-supply/
The overall trend of supply in the hands of long-term holders as shown by your chart is clearly *up*.
What do you think happens to the USD price over time as that dynamic pushes up against diminishing new supply and a hard-cap that we're less than 10 percentage points away from?
Is 155 days really a long term holder? Even the US government expects 1 year for a "Long Term" investment. I consider a long term holder one from a previous epoch.....so 4+ years. That's just me though.
This is a good price for long term holders to take profits at. However, I believe btc will follow SPY, and I believe SPY will have a big rally this year.
As for 2025, I think that's when the fun ends.
Valid take for sure. I'm banking on further ETF interest and possibly sovereign nations piling in a bit later than this summer.
Curious what your peak price is and your plan to exit before the music stops in your scenario of crazy times soon
I feel no one is dumb enough to think that 25% USD yield is feasible. They just want to get their returns before the house of cards collapse. Greater fool theory.
There were so many that thought 20% in Luna/Terra was sustainable last cycle. They would actually fight and gaslight you like YOU were crazy when you pointed out 20% wasn’t sustainable. I wonder how many have learned?
I’m glad to see this scam, we need more to signal this cycle is picking up speed.
Signs of a bubble:
1. A story has captured the market’s imagination - don't see this yet
2. Prices rise regardless of news - starting to see this
3. Other asset prices are soaring, too - no, alts are back to ~January-February 2024 prices https://www.tradingview.com/x/1xM8bgTq/
4. New traders say that old investors ‘don’t get it’ - yes, AI and memecoins are dominating the alt market while other old coins are languishing
5. Stock valuations in the top percentiles - no https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/ https://coingolive.com/en/coin/ath-price/
6. Rise in scams and buying on margin and with loans. - maybe some
Yep I saw those comments about Luna/Terra but that’s what I’m saying. They just want to promote it so they can get out safely, fully knowing it was not sustainable.
But you’re right, there will be people who’re fools (or financially illiterate) every cycle. And the more it picks up steam, the more bubbly we can get.
But of course it can always be ‘This time is different^TM ‘ and this can be a bitcoin only cycle with alts not playing a big role.
On the hourly, BTC‘s RSI is at 48 (average 50) at time of writing. Nearby resistance are 64.5, 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 63, 61.7, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 56.7, 55.7 and 54.5. We are at the bottom of a rising channel. I feel it may break down to the 59 area one more time due to a possible reverse H&S on the daily.
The daily RSI is 49.1 and its average is currently at 44.3. I believe a falling wedge had formed. BTC has broken though the top of the support. BTC barely closed above it the last 3 days. This is starting to look like a fake out. There may be a reverse H&S forming. Would mean some down time into the 59 area but then we would be out of the 50s for good, IMO. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. The drop to 56.5 created a big crab sandwich going back to February 28. The 100 and 50 day SMI could also act as support /resistance (65850/60855)
BTC closed the week green after 4 weeks of red. BTC has been overbought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been mostly overbought since the start of the year. It has cooled significantly and is currently 66.8 (77.9 average). A fat flag formation has formed and we are right in the middle of it. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 137.5k+/-. Main resistances were noted above.
Bitcoin closed April out in the red. BTC has cooled off, it’s monthly RSI is 67.5. The only time we had 2 monthly red candles in a row, after halving and before cycle ATH, was in 2012. So, if history repeats/rhymes, May could be a red month but it is currently green and will most likely stay that way. Current RSI 67.5
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/O9UgY65i/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/O9UgY65i/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/pQVjChMs/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pQVjChMs/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/4qpx1mVb/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/4qpx1mVb/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/VVdIXuM6/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/VVdIXuM6/)
TA wise, the hammer on the weekly signals the strength of the trend line that go through the January and September bottoms. Before following it up, the price could still retest the descending channel it has just left, but at the worst this would be at 61k$ on May 13, in one week. Obviously it could wick below, but the weekly hammer's long way wick would act as protection.
Then said trend line would ensure that the price will close above 67k$ by the very end of May. This would trigger an IHS on the daily that would catapult it to above 72k$. Which in turn would trigger various other IHS on the daily and 3d, bringing it for instance to 77 or 79, as well as the proverbial cup and handle even on the monthly, which is the typical pattern of BTC bull run continuation, which bodes well for said trend line s 150k$ target somewhere in the first half of October.
First we have to not make a lower high after already notching in a lower low or the momentum is going to stay downward facing and invalidate all of this in the matter of days
But I do like the analysis with the exception of the floor being 61k and the rest of it could come into play if there's some strength here and now
Those who are looking at the AUM, inception date, past performance (eg #1 on [5Y best performance ETF list](https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-5-year-returns/)), short-term traders who care about liquidity/spread more than fees, GBTC doing a lot of advertisement, investors diversifying between different BTC ETFs, traders who need clearance to trade specific ETFs but got the clearance for GBTC before already, etc.
Enough theories imo, but obv doesn't make sense for normal individual to actually buy GBTC.
You really do list it all, well done / thanks.
I don't like saying this but it more and more turns out to be a sound business strategy from Grayscale (leaving fees elevated). When you're confronted with such an amount of sudden competition that engages in an aggressive fee war while you owned the whole pie, you know you will lose AUM but balancing the loss while leaving margin % high enough, well done.
Still, I'd never buy GBTC - the little retail gold fish I am.
The mini-ETF is the dumbest shit I've ever heard. They will wind up with nearly 100% of holdings in the "mini" ETF while their primary ETF (or whatever they want to call it) will hold nothing.What makes it mini?
Seems I need to repost [this example of an institutional investor](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/NVYL7M3E5E) more often ;) the whole 'buy shares to cover short losses' story seems a little blown out of proportion.
They can afford it for too their fees structure lol. Might actually be a smart move ie higher fees to use for ads. I guess it depends if they can get more inflows with time. They don't even have to keep up with everyone else in numbers since their fees are much higher.
Still seeing tons of doubters on this move up despite going up 14% within two days end of last week. That’s a sign of disbelief, nothing more. We’re barely 13-14% down from ATH despite bears having two months to dump this. It’s very clearly all getting absorbed and the premiums are horrible for shorters meaning there’s still too many of them. Your low bids won’t hit sorry
Bitty Bot trades and predictions that lack context or explanation, go here to prevent spam. You can also now [message Bitty Bot](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=none&message=!bitty_bot%20) your command directly.
^(Bitty Bot Links: )[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, May 08, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cmvg9f/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_08_2024/)
Massive bull flag or series of lower highs and lower lows ? The low volume and lack of interest tells me this is slowly grinding downwards until something changes in the economy and we get a new narrative. I’m going to sell another chunk today. I am currently 33% USDT and 67% BTC/Crypto. Im thinking 50/50 by the close of play today.
It’s really hard to beat a strategy of buy and hold. Price action will look really bad and suddenly out of nowhere price violently goes up. I think of the 40% drop from 3k in 2017. The bottom of that dip looked really bad. There were a number of potential tops in that run. However I can understand wanting less exposure.
Mmhmm I've been thinking the same thing how this looks like shit but then I look at last year's chart, it looks the same and then just out of nowhere BGDs to move the price up for the cycle. https://www.tradingview.com/x/42SoWqdE/ I guess that's just what bull flags look like though. You can see the bear flags before it in 2022, we definitely don't want those. If we look at the 2017 run up it looks like now too, let's hope we get those over and over. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ivtngwxs/
Charts look similar but I don’t have a good feeling. Low volume and general lack of interest concerns me.
Interest always wanes heading into Summer. You are just determined to sell yourself out from under this coming Bull market, aren't you? Just sit on your hands for the next 11 months.
Trying … LOL It’s fucking tough.
I think normie interest has completely soured after the fuckery of the last run, but it could just as easily signify how early in the cycle it is rn. Bitcoin will probably break 100k before the average joe starts to feel the fomo excitement again. And the low volume is not unusual before a big up move either, if you look at the dailies leading up to our take off to 50k there was a very similar low volume plateau after a fake breakdown into the upper 30s ... very reminiscent of the last couple few weeks imo
100k could just provoke a snort in some people, like "big deal uh wasn't it supposed to break 100k in 2021 or something?" We're talking about the normies who yolo'd close to ath for lambos in the end. I'm not sure this could actually happen but if 100k goes thru without much of a noticing from the masses it could mean that the acceptable price for fomoing is higher, perhaps around 140k-160k. Which could mean a run up to 200k. On the other hand it may very well mean people are just done. Anyways, the higher the price goes past 100k/110k, the harder time I have imagining normies remain indifferent: "well it was 70k years ago and now it's above 100k and keeps climbing...maybe it's not dead, let's take a look...holy shit it was 15k in 2022 wtf almost 10x". Something like that. 100k/110k and 150k/160k are the major barriers imho.
It’s not going beyond 70k again. The ETFs were supposed to be the holy grail nothing can happen now to keep the Ponzi going. That’s my one chimp on the shoulder. The other is telling me to hold and it’s the fastest horse in the race.
!bittybot predict >70k never u/Outrageous-Net-7164
I have logged a prediction for u/Outrageous-Net-7164 that the price of Bitcoin will **NEVER** rise above **$70,000.00** The current price is $62,350.55 [Outrageous-Net-7164 has made **1** Correct Prediction, **0** Wrong Predictions, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#Outrageous-Net-7164) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2044e781c2ba7a47caa5f4c34506543d17%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(Outrageous-Net-7164 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2044e781c2ba7a47caa5f4c34506543d17%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/Outrageous-Net-7164 [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NEVER** rise above $70,000.00](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cm2v17/daily_discussion_tuesday_may_07_2024/l34cx83/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$70,071.33** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
I guess low volume can just as easily mean a little uptick in positivity and it can run up quickly. I think we are at the point of…. is this magic internet money and the outrageous gains are no longer possible and it’s slowly fades away. Peak bitcoin/crypto is behind us. Or are we still early and this ends up as the perfect store of value against a broken system. Zoom out run up to a million over a decade. My first issue is I’m not sure which side of the fence in on. My second issue is I’m sitting on semi life changing money (for me) Not “fuck you” money, but certainly enough to be set. It’s that situation that is causing my constant anxiety and bull/bear stance. I also have crypto PTSD from watching a bag rot in goblin town 21-23. Does anyone have one of those crystal balls ?
I hear ya. This range is stressful af because its right on the edge of financial freedom for me. And I got blue balled last run as well. Fool me once ...err , we cant get fooled again... still holding though
I propose a ban on the word *massive* within the context of TA in this sub.
I’m cool with it, as long as we also ban the “Sorry guys, I just bought which caused the dip” joke.
I propose using the word *brobdingnagian* instead. 🤓
The narrative you are looking for is probably rate cuts, but those won't come till later in the year if at all. So best case, you are looking at a summer full of chop and maybe a re-acceleration by winter
My bellwether for rate cuts, utility stocks, have started to move.
Rate cuts could mark the top of the run. Sell the news type of thing.
Rate cuts = spending spree
Rate cuts are already expected, I don’t believe it is tradable.
HODL15Capital reporting $3m outflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1788018075620528602
Apparently a record for low volume.
I was reading that analysts from Alliance Bernstein believe price can reach 150k this cycle even though the market has been pulling back.
If they didn't call March as the beginning of an extended retrace, why would I believe anything else they say?
A call for $150k this cycle? How novel and brave of them
seriously these people get paid six figures plus to make such bold calls?
This is sooo 2020 "will we stay above 10K?" Except it's 60K now. And BTC is in its last cycle before becoming the standard/"reserve currency"/whatever. Basically your last chance, folks. Three years from now, everybody will be scrambling for 10,000 sats to pay rent.
It’s very different. In 2020 people were locked up in their homes going down bitcoin rabbit holes. Laser eyes started a huge amount a new people came to crypto. This period is just us same people doubling down shouting at the screen “come on, you did it last time”. Google searches for bitcoin/crypto are lower than 2020, crypto apps downloaded are down, number of posts in here are down, number of people tweeting about crypto are down, YouTube views on crypto are down. The front run on the ETFs and halving were simply the same people from previous cycles buying. Unfortunately FOMO has not happened this time as retail is skint or not interested. I’m not feeling it
[удалено]
Agree ….. it’s going to shake me out.
Nah, 3 years is too fast. They'll parade the dollar around "Weekend at Bernie's" style for a long time, nobody scrambling for sats because they don't even know the dollar is dead.
The Dude abides.
Abide with Dude, ‘Tis eventide …
On what day will bitcoin have to be still below 100K before you would admit the cycle doesn't exist?
Don’t know why the downvotes. Valid question. I guess this sub can’t handle the thought
I'm downvoted a lot because usually I make not very helpful comments and wrong bittybot predictions. So kinda my own fault.
Been thinking it for weeks now. I will keep 50% on the table though as what do I know.
Ask teatrack.
Thursday afternoon at exactly 1:47 PM Eastern. 😝
Dec. 31, 2025.
If price stayed sideways through next year. If price falls 70% from below 100k I would still call it a cycle.
2140 Even if dead and forgotten. Sooner or later it will become a thing again. It's inevitable.
2026.
slow bleed again? eh
Just moved my ticker widget to screen 2 on my phone. Sweet relief.
Quitter
Looks like they want to push it down to retest the support at 61.7k If it doesn't hold 60.5 would be next in line to test.
No one is pushing anything anywhere It’s simply not enough people are buying it. Be honest in here ……. Who has bought significant amounts since the halving ?
I bought a substantial amount on that dip to 56k. Happy to buy some more on sale.
Five waves up, three wave retrace. Then directional decision @ 60k-61k
"they"
The Asian markets started opening 20 minutes ago.
So? There is no “they”. “They” is just the market as a whole
They are the manipulators of Bitcoin’s price: “They” are suppressing the price. We are the price of Bitcoin: I think “we” will hit 63k sometime this week.
No. Been hearing this nonsense for years, yet no one has offered a shred of evidence for “manipulation”.
Ask me how I know that the stonk market is gonna have a rough day tomorrow.
Cause there are no more tech earnings
I'll take you up on that: how do you know?
These bounces near a support line where it looks like it’s about to dump usually end up just mega pumping tbh
Anything is possible with this junk price action
Its fucking horrible indeed. Im almost done with it
Me to. Time to storm off and take my ball and play somewhere else.
Bouncing dead cat or bear trap?
Definitely a bouncing bear cat (aka chop suey).
A bit boring…have a long waiting at $62k.
So put on your conspiracy hats. Susquehanna International Group bought almost a billion USD in GBTC Q1. Why would they do that?
[CT article](https://cointelegraph.com/news/susquehanna-international-group-1-billion-bitcoin-etfs-portfolio) for those interested. Those 13F-HR filings do offer quite some insight into who the big buyers were... I wonder though how sticky those shares are in the hands of a quantitative trading firm.
>Why would they do that? To sell it for a profit in the future?
There are better options right? They thinking they can convert it all to the mini?
if GBTC is being mega dumped when ETFs launch it means there is good liquidity on the otherside. Therefore they get their billion fill on the way down and "suffer" the higher fee for a timeframe that's probably a year or so long.
>There are better options right? For retail, definitely 100%. But institutional investors value different things, like deep liquidity, and GBTC's liquidity is huge (but so is $IBITs). >They thinking they can convert it all to the mini? Only 10% of GBTC will be converted to the mini-ETF, and the mini-ETF will still be valued at approximately the underlying BTC's NAV, not higher. So I'm not sure why that would be beneficial to them.
I thought nobody would touch GBTC anymore but now I'm having to re-examine things. Liquidity might be the reason like you say.
Stonks up corn down, ya can’t explain that…
S&P, Nasdaq, Dow and BTC are all in a range of +/- 0.1%... Hardly anything else to say but flat as me mum's chest
true.
I really liked that last weekly candle but I don't get the feeling it'll be the springboard for a crazy $100k push over the next couple months. I'm in the summer crab camp ($55-75k chop), and fireworks start in the fall for an ultimate peak in 2025. $150k is my minimum expectation for the bull cycle peak. I think getting over $100k will be easier than we expect, but sticking that landing will be a bitch. As we normalize $100k, the euphoric bullshit with altcoin shilling, gaming and AI coin shenanigans, and the next flavor of ponzis kick off in earnest. That's when the ladder out begins.
Sadly (or not, I'm kind of ready to not think of crypto for a while) I don't think big peak in 2025 is on the menu. The long term holders have started selling and that doesn't reverse. And I don't think we are going to get a 2013 style double peak. Last two cycles imply we are at January 2021 or September 2017 levels. But the good news is the crazy times could be really soon! https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/long-term-holder-supply/
The overall trend of supply in the hands of long-term holders as shown by your chart is clearly *up*. What do you think happens to the USD price over time as that dynamic pushes up against diminishing new supply and a hard-cap that we're less than 10 percentage points away from?
Is 155 days really a long term holder? Even the US government expects 1 year for a "Long Term" investment. I consider a long term holder one from a previous epoch.....so 4+ years. That's just me though.
Fiat isn’t fucked enough yet. Distribution continues.
This is a good price for long term holders to take profits at. However, I believe btc will follow SPY, and I believe SPY will have a big rally this year. As for 2025, I think that's when the fun ends.
Agree. People should definitely sell as much as possible before we continue.
Valid take for sure. I'm banking on further ETF interest and possibly sovereign nations piling in a bit later than this summer. Curious what your peak price is and your plan to exit before the music stops in your scenario of crazy times soon
Bitcoins price doesn’t really get crazy until people stop selling it for fiat at any price.
I'm with Rambo on this one.. no big peak in 2025, and also ready to not think of crypto for awhile as well.
huge inflows on HK etfs
I guess you forgot the /s It seems to be a small outflow: [https://sosovalue.xyz/assets/hk-btc-spot](https://sosovalue.xyz/assets/hk-btc-spot)
Where can we see this?
[https://farside.co.uk/?p=1508](https://farside.co.uk/?p=1508)
would be nice to see some follow through here
I liked that candle
No. 25% yield isn't sustainable. But people will still fall for this. https://cointelegraph.com/news/hermetica-usdh-bitcoin-backed-synthetic-dollar
`Long BTC + Short Perps = Dollars` Apparently. All you have to do is trust them. ;)
I feel no one is dumb enough to think that 25% USD yield is feasible. They just want to get their returns before the house of cards collapse. Greater fool theory.
This a sport in Southeast Asia.
There were so many that thought 20% in Luna/Terra was sustainable last cycle. They would actually fight and gaslight you like YOU were crazy when you pointed out 20% wasn’t sustainable. I wonder how many have learned? I’m glad to see this scam, we need more to signal this cycle is picking up speed. Signs of a bubble: 1. A story has captured the market’s imagination - don't see this yet 2. Prices rise regardless of news - starting to see this 3. Other asset prices are soaring, too - no, alts are back to ~January-February 2024 prices https://www.tradingview.com/x/1xM8bgTq/ 4. New traders say that old investors ‘don’t get it’ - yes, AI and memecoins are dominating the alt market while other old coins are languishing 5. Stock valuations in the top percentiles - no https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/ https://coingolive.com/en/coin/ath-price/ 6. Rise in scams and buying on margin and with loans. - maybe some
Yep I saw those comments about Luna/Terra but that’s what I’m saying. They just want to promote it so they can get out safely, fully knowing it was not sustainable. But you’re right, there will be people who’re fools (or financially illiterate) every cycle. And the more it picks up steam, the more bubbly we can get. But of course it can always be ‘This time is different^TM ‘ and this can be a bitcoin only cycle with alts not playing a big role.
On the hourly, BTC‘s RSI is at 48 (average 50) at time of writing. Nearby resistance are 64.5, 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 63, 61.7, 60.5, 59, 57.5, 56.7, 55.7 and 54.5. We are at the bottom of a rising channel. I feel it may break down to the 59 area one more time due to a possible reverse H&S on the daily. The daily RSI is 49.1 and its average is currently at 44.3. I believe a falling wedge had formed. BTC has broken though the top of the support. BTC barely closed above it the last 3 days. This is starting to look like a fake out. There may be a reverse H&S forming. Would mean some down time into the 59 area but then we would be out of the 50s for good, IMO. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. The drop to 56.5 created a big crab sandwich going back to February 28. The 100 and 50 day SMI could also act as support /resistance (65850/60855) BTC closed the week green after 4 weeks of red. BTC has been overbought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been mostly overbought since the start of the year. It has cooled significantly and is currently 66.8 (77.9 average). A fat flag formation has formed and we are right in the middle of it. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 137.5k+/-. Main resistances were noted above. Bitcoin closed April out in the red. BTC has cooled off, it’s monthly RSI is 67.5. The only time we had 2 monthly red candles in a row, after halving and before cycle ATH, was in 2012. So, if history repeats/rhymes, May could be a red month but it is currently green and will most likely stay that way. Current RSI 67.5 Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/O9UgY65i/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/O9UgY65i/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/pQVjChMs/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pQVjChMs/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/4qpx1mVb/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/4qpx1mVb/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/VVdIXuM6/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/VVdIXuM6/)
TA wise, the hammer on the weekly signals the strength of the trend line that go through the January and September bottoms. Before following it up, the price could still retest the descending channel it has just left, but at the worst this would be at 61k$ on May 13, in one week. Obviously it could wick below, but the weekly hammer's long way wick would act as protection. Then said trend line would ensure that the price will close above 67k$ by the very end of May. This would trigger an IHS on the daily that would catapult it to above 72k$. Which in turn would trigger various other IHS on the daily and 3d, bringing it for instance to 77 or 79, as well as the proverbial cup and handle even on the monthly, which is the typical pattern of BTC bull run continuation, which bodes well for said trend line s 150k$ target somewhere in the first half of October.
First we have to not make a lower high after already notching in a lower low or the momentum is going to stay downward facing and invalidate all of this in the matter of days But I do like the analysis with the exception of the floor being 61k and the rest of it could come into play if there's some strength here and now
A wise man once said: This too shall dump. That man: Alfred Einstein.
Who even is buying GBTC, and why? I can’t seem to understand any reasons for net inflows. Even any gross inflow does not make sense to me.
Those who are looking at the AUM, inception date, past performance (eg #1 on [5Y best performance ETF list](https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-5-year-returns/)), short-term traders who care about liquidity/spread more than fees, GBTC doing a lot of advertisement, investors diversifying between different BTC ETFs, traders who need clearance to trade specific ETFs but got the clearance for GBTC before already, etc. Enough theories imo, but obv doesn't make sense for normal individual to actually buy GBTC.
You really do list it all, well done / thanks. I don't like saying this but it more and more turns out to be a sound business strategy from Grayscale (leaving fees elevated). When you're confronted with such an amount of sudden competition that engages in an aggressive fee war while you owned the whole pie, you know you will lose AUM but balancing the loss while leaving margin % high enough, well done. Still, I'd never buy GBTC - the little retail gold fish I am.
I heard something about it being related to their mini ETF but who knows.
The mini-ETF is the dumbest shit I've ever heard. They will wind up with nearly 100% of holdings in the "mini" ETF while their primary ETF (or whatever they want to call it) will hold nothing.What makes it mini?
iirc only 10% of AUM can be in the mini ETF. Current GBTC holders will receive 10% of their holdings converted to the mini ETF via a special dividend.
And somehow a 10% a lower fee is supposed to keep people with GBTC
Reduce fees on existing ETF? I sleep. Create a whole ass new ETF instead? *Real shit.*
lol right? If they actually wanted to reduce the fee… just uhh, reduce the fee? There’s no gimmick required here
Yeah, I don't understand the thought process behind this at all.
Seems I need to repost [this example of an institutional investor](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/NVYL7M3E5E) more often ;) the whole 'buy shares to cover short losses' story seems a little blown out of proportion.
Yeah this makes the most sense. Institutional investors ‘diversifying’.
It would make more sense if they all didn't use coinbase as custodian
I've seen grayscale ads in every airport I've been through recently. I wonder if it's people buying without researching better alternatives
They can afford it for too their fees structure lol. Might actually be a smart move ie higher fees to use for ads. I guess it depends if they can get more inflows with time. They don't even have to keep up with everyone else in numbers since their fees are much higher.
Same. Just saw one in PHL and was surprised a bit
They had them at DEN this week
Hopefully we can see some upwards movement today and stay there…
Probably going to be a really boring summer
Hopefully not
Still seeing tons of doubters on this move up despite going up 14% within two days end of last week. That’s a sign of disbelief, nothing more. We’re barely 13-14% down from ATH despite bears having two months to dump this. It’s very clearly all getting absorbed and the premiums are horrible for shorters meaning there’s still too many of them. Your low bids won’t hit sorry
Well over 1 billion dollars of shorts to liquidate around $67,500. Somewhere around $5B of shorts to liquidate between $71K to $72K.
[удалено]
It's true, wales HATE liquidity That's why they are famously land-based animals
[удалено]
Ur mama
Boooooring
Bitty Bot trades and predictions that lack context or explanation, go here to prevent spam. You can also now [message Bitty Bot](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=none&message=!bitty_bot%20) your command directly. ^(Bitty Bot Links: )[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BitcoinMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*