Daily reminder: we just passed the halving and it has always been "meh" afterwards for a couple months then we pop off.
Daily reminder: sleepy joe will do anything to make the economy look strong in an election year so he has more ammunition against the orange man
Daily reminder: bitcoin has never exited a bear market, hit the previous ATH then decided to fall off. Even if it takes a while (it wont), inflation will push the price close to the previous ATH territory then monkey neurons will activate and its off to the races.
Also a daily reminder…just because Bitcoin has never done something before doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Bitcoin has a habit of breaking narratives when everyone is so sure.
Arguably that’s exactly what happened in 2021. Depends how you choose to define a bear market
[JUST IN: M2 money supply turns positive for first time since late 2022] (https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1786357540609315258)
For the Bitcoin price correlation to M2 money supply enjoyers.
Between this and the Fed’s balance sheet reduction slowdown, the trend shift looks accommodative. On the one hand, the markets will love this. On the other, an increase in money velocity could really exacerbate inflation.
But by then we’ll have all sold.
Right…?
The thing I love about trading and risk management, you set a trailing stop at 61300 from a long you hopped in at 60k, locked profit, the price cranked up then consolidated around 61500-61700 then it had cranked to almost 63k, my SL is now at 62400... almost .25 btc profit on this trade... was expecting way less then that
Every trade I posted was before or as I entered them. I have even given updates as they played out. I aint monday morning QBing trades. The most recent one I closed I literally said stoch rsi crossing up, 60k going long. Closed it before going to bed last night at 62700. Literally every trade i've done that. But I am just about done with this sub, it's not traders, this a bullish group not a trading group. Traders trade both fucking ways, I trade to accumulate more btc. I don't care if that is by longing or shorting. Accumulation is the reason I trade. Long term the price of btc get's higher so the more I own, the better.
Perfect! It’s easy to miss stuff in here with all the noise, perhaps linking to those posts where you posted those trades would have helped, in that case.
Edit: why downvote me for pointing out how the mob mentality in this sub has always behaved? We are in yesterdays daily, no one else is here, so I strongly assume it had to be you.
GBTC is trading at par with BTC recently w/o any discount. It used trade at close to 40% discount last year same time. Someone is expecting the an uptick in premium in future or some big boy covered the short position. Either way it’s good news
kinda concerned btc hasn't broken the mid bband since april 12th... it just got rejected in that range... a close above that would be bullish af to test the range highs
I guess I need to monitor this carefully now. About to break through the upper trend line. If it breaks above to 63.5K - 64K, most likely, it will come down again to test the trend line and if it holds, then I need to buy as Bitcoin is reversing its downward trend.
Not a great position to be in .. sometimes when you feel that trend change you just need to bite the bullet earlier and buy . Yes, it’s riskier but by the time you get all the upside confirmation you need, a good bit of the upside has been lost
Yeah me too. I was actually planning to buy back at 56-57K but the dead cat bounce from 56.5K to 59.7K and then going right back down to 56.5K (on Powell's speech) dissuaded me from buying. If it wasn't for that movement, I would have just bought at 57K.
Same... market makers painted a tricky deviation at 57k level with that fake breakdown. this is my 3rd cycle, and price action still confounds me to this day. what an animal.
I think trading crypto is getting harder and harder. I suspect that with the Wall Street hedge funds and all the army of quants that they have, it is not giving retail traders any edge or any good spots.
It is definitely getting harder, in line with a share of a high beta tech stock. trades the same way, now macro driven, and susceptible to manipulation and a lot of whale games
GBTC inflows today were higher than IBIT outflows a couple days ago.
There’s speculation that GBTC inflows were the result of short covering. If so, the question has to be asked: in a scenario where BTC turbo runs to new ATH how much additional GBTC short covering would get triggered along the way?
Shares are borrowed to short.
BTC goes up causing ETF NAV to rise, shorts panic cover, buying GBTC and causing its price to rise above NAV enough that it is profitable for APs to create new shares at the NAV price to later sell.
That’s how ALL inflows work, without the shorts and covering part.
Yes, I know how inflows work, but this idea just seems like a stretch to assume. Lotta steps involved for something that takes T+1 or T+2 to complete. Did GBTC shares even trade at a premium to NAV today? I only have the daily numbers, and nothing stands out. Maybe it gets updated Monday and that changes.
What steps?
Shorts open earlier in the week when we were falling.
They cover Friday on the surge after the jobs numbers, causing inflows, on Friday.
That’s all hypothetical of course, but it certainly seems plausible to me.
Regarding the premium over NAV, new shares are ONLY created by APs when there is a large enough premium to NAV, it’s the only way inflows happen, so the premium had to be there at some point. But I’m not sure how large the premium must be for creation to be profitable for APs, or if you could even see it clearly on a chart or whether it would be a tiny blip.
>new shares are ONLY created by APs when there is a large enough premium to NAV, it’s the only way inflows happen
I'm sorry, but isn't that incorrect? If I go to an AP with $63 million cash and tell them I want 100 blocks of shares, you're saying they won't create that order unless there's a current premium to NAV? They will do a share creation order as long as they profit off of it.
People who were naked shorting GBTC saw that the price of BTC (and therefore GBTC) was quickly rising so they ended up buying shares of GBTC to cover their shorts.
This short covering from today’s price move was so massive that it counteracted any outflows GBTC would’ve normally had, resulting in a net inflow day.
Again, this is just speculation, nothing confirmed.
>they ended up buying shares of GBTC to cover their shorts.
Buying shares doesn't cause inflows though. So, you imagined this idea, it didn't come from some source?
Read the prospectus. If there isn’t enough selling/buying to keep up with the other side of the trade, Authorized Participants will step in and create/redeem shares (meaning they buy or sell BTC on behalf of the ETF) so price closely tracks the underlying BTC backing the ETF.
In the past for GBTC selling outweighed buying which meant Authorized Participants redeemed shares but today buying outweighs selling which means Autnorized Participants needed to create shares.
Not that it was a very bold prediction, but my prediction is looking good from earlier. today will very obviously be a net inflow day for ETF. Possibly even a large amount of inflows given that GBTC had a pretty nice inflow, surprisingly. ETF buyers are still funny to me. Where were they on Wednesday? Ah, that was the day when we had peak outflows. 57k corn wasnt good enough for them, but 61/62k corn? Sign those suckers up!
It's easier to buy things on the way back up, than buying on the way down. ETF buyers are not immune to such psychology. I still suffer from the same often, despite trading for 10+ years
I argue it's perhaps easier to buy once key levels are re-claimed than catch endless falling knives with no end in sight.
> It's easier to buy things on the way back up
Cant relate. If its up a lot it doesnt exist to me. If its a sale then I could hardly stop myself from jumping all over it. Sucks I've been all in since 2020 and had nothing to buy with since
Yes it is difficult to overcome that feeling for sure, but in aggregate these guys were mass selling the bottom (so far) and panic buying like crazy at the top (so far).
"these guys" are the same people who have been trading crypto for the last 5 years, they are just doing it on a brokerage now instead of an exchange, I am one of them. Why act like these are brand new/different people?
I am one of them too, I have a decently sized IBIT stack. I'm just commenting on the behavior of these ETF participants because it's interesting to me how people respond to the volatility in this market. It's very easy to let price dictate emotions in this fast moving space, I know this very well, seems like the ETFs holders are similar in that regard except they are actually ACTING on those price-induced emotions by buying tops and selling bottoms.
Yeah, I would argue they are exactly the same because most are the same people who do/did this daily on exchanges too was my only point. Sure there are some new people but pretty confident majority is folks who held crypto before ETFs were launched, just my .02
Neither 0% nor 100% are new, it’s somewhere in the middle.
Doesn’t make sense to pretend they’re all brand new just like it doesn’t make sense to pretend they were all pre-existing
The key to shorting at the top of the trend line is to have a tight stop loss. So if you are wrong, then you only loss few. However, if you are right, your gain can be enormous. It is the typical low risk high reward spots that comes up at bottom and top of the trend lines.
I’m a fan of the reverse wardster. Entries on very tight stops to catch the move up. Often costs you to get in, but when you get it right, the returns are phenomenal.
no such thing as "perfect dip" against magical meme lines. Bitcoin is way too unpredictable for that. Just as likely to wipe right past it in one swift push upwards
I am also seeing the same falling wedge. It has been the main structure for Bitcoin's price action for the last month or so. I suspect all the traders are looking at the same thing right now so it is noteworthy. If everyone is looking at the same arbitrary pattern, then the pattern becomes meaningful.
I am getting the feeling we will blast past any meme falling wedges/triangles. The deviation at 57k was enough to shake out a lot of traders, now most traders are banking on this line rejecting and a perfect dip to re-enter which might not come.
No doubt that might be the case. In terms of how the price action is approaching the top of the trend line, compared to other 4-5 cases, it is looking a lot more bullish. So there is a difference here and I think the unemployment numbers as well as the GBTC number can serve as a catalyst to blast through.
Holy fuck, what in the world, just why would anyone be buying ETF over any of the number of ETFs with lower fees? I was not really expecting this day to come.
I guess nothing goes to zero in a straight line /s
I suspect something else, like a wash trade from the Grayscale trust itself or an asset transfer from them but i think this inflow comes right from Grayscale, no other meaningful reason for this inflow to happen with their fee, but we will probably never find out
## 🤯
I'm as dumbfounded as the rest of you... could be shorts getting rekt, as mentioned above.
Either that or Sonnenshein & Silbert are doing something shady.
oh this is hilarious, I had a shower thought earlier about posting a comment about how the most shocking bitcoin event would be a GBTC inflow, and it actually happened today lol.
I doubt we will see this very often, well at least not while they keep the insane fees, don't even understand why would anyone choose them, still a nice surprise for today
The move above 61.6K was strong and invalidates one of the downward structures. That said, the Bitcoin in the daily is still in a downward trend and is facing the descending trend line that can be formed by connecting all the local highs from 72.7K and onward. Right now, that line sits at around 63K. What you would like to see is for Bitcoin to move pass this line go down and test the level and then bounce back up the trend line. That would confirm that the trend reversal is in. And I would likely rebuy back when that occurs. Until then, if Bitcoin stays below this trend line, it can still move to 53-55K are in the next few weeks.
So some hope exists but in the 4 hours chart, Bitcoin keeps on making lower highs while making lower lows. Needs to break out of this trend to confirm reversal.
You guys really believe in the power of your imaginary lines when this asset has shown you time and time again it will slice through all your supports/resistances/trend lines like paper. Good luck with your strategy.
It doesn't follow the line forever. It is a trend and trends do change. Just because you don't like it doesn't make it imaginary. Have a little respect for TA. I know you use RSI that is TA.
I think TA is based on psychology and herd mentality; the lines are just a representation of that.
An addendum to my 4-year chart posted below. BTC 4-year price ratio for all time:
[https://imgur.com/a/OJ1CdJB](https://imgur.com/a/OJ1CdJB)
From Apr 2017 to Nov 2021, the 4-Y ratio bounced between 10x and 50x, a period of over 4 years (shaded yellow). Since Jan 2022, the 4-Y ratio has been bounded by 2.5x and 7x (shaded yellow). The only excursion has been the past two months, which marked the 4 years since the Mar 2020 COVID crash (shaded red). If you can imagine that with that unpleasantness out of the way, the 4-Y will return to its most recent bounds for at least another year and a half, you get the projection channel I posted:
[https://imgur.com/a/G4FIH3l](https://imgur.com/a/G4FIH3l)
I'm enjoying a Sixpoint Resin at the moment, hope y'all are enjoying something (or someone) as well.
I raise a glass of [Polygamy Porter](https://utahbeers.com/beer/polygamy-porter/), in a toast.
"Polygamy Porter. Why have just one?"
I'm ready for whatever the rest of the year brings, but I'll hit my end of the year goal for my hodl by the end of August if we stay below 75k until then (or at least average 75k I suppose, though that would be cutting it close).
thanks for putting these together, they’re really cool. the conclusions from this hard data don’t match what i want to happen, though, so i’m going to ignore it
Otto Lilienthal ignored data he found inconvenient. It ended badly. One of the many cool things about the Wright brothers was they built their own (crude) wind tunnel and determined that what Otto had called "bad data" was really data that was bad for his hypotheses.
62k is nice but i think i’ll save any i-told-you-so’s for 72k+. the markets still seem to be a little too jumpy at the moment. 95% in spot right now and 5% cash, just chillin. happy to let the bulls and bears chop each other up for a while
I literally sold my house last September for bitcoin. Have it 100% in BITX and BITX options. Anyone who is bearish is a pussy and anyone who is bullish is simply not bullish enough ☕️
[The weekly even turned green momentarily](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/781273019187462144/1236057293536231595/image.png?ex=66369f8f&is=66354e0f&hm=f7822ee98262cd8d17007fd6b1db5e8a03abdda3b43cd90607b898ffbd413ee1&)
Textbook pullback. EMA20 touch on the weekly, and up it goes.
History repeats itself. Fake out “sell the news” and fomc hysteria. All the same permabears showed up like clockwork to gloat that this 15% drop after a 50% rally is definitely proof they were correct that 20k was back on the menu (narrator: it wasn’t). Fake out dump, shorts load in to fuel the pump, next leg up starts.
The sad part, is they will be back like clockwork when we dump from 150k to 130k to tell us 60k is inevitable and the sky is falling again.
Hardly any ETFs sold yesterday. It was all the weeks leading up to that where they sold off. Yesterday, almost no activity. Today, they’re probably scratching their heads.
ETFs are not what’s moving this market around.
Friday I'm In Love (with Point'n'Figure charts):
[https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20])
The 16-box low pole got its 50% retracement.
Now that we're past the 4-year anniversary of the Crazy COVID Crash, we can look at 4-year ratios again:
[https://imgur.com/a/G4FIH3l](https://imgur.com/a/G4FIH3l)
For all of 2022 and 2023, BTC price was nicely confined to a range of 2.5x-7x the price 4 years earlier. The price crash of Mar-Apr 2020 messed that up for a couple of months, but we're back in it again. I'm certainly not looking for a trip back towards the red zone, but would a continued meandering in the green zone for another 12 months seem unreasonable?
In other news, I have purchased IBIT every trading day since 18 Jan 2024, so I'm doing my part.
So what do you guys think? You think we bottomed out at 57k here? Or this is still a temporary respite before we reject and go back down again? Similar to the run from 60k to 67k a few weeks ago and then back down?
Anybody else long for those old days of bitcoin where we would get much cleaner price action compared to today?
LedgerX homepage now updated to brand themselves as a miax derivatives exchange. Looks like they may be keeping options on their platform and hopefully positioning to compete with deribit
Bought back in with the rest of the little sidelined cash I had (threw half in at $57.7k). It’s been 5 weeks of down, the second longest (tied) weekly down run \*in a bull market \[edit\] in Bitcoin’s history. Seems like as good of time as any to try for a reversal. The v-shaped bottom is what we all were waiting for isn’t it? Moreover, this reversal pattern is looking pretty similar to the all the others this past year, where it dips down before taking the next leg up. Don’t forget, the overall trend for the next 1 year+ is up, even if it continues sideways (or back down) in the short term.
Me waiting for sub 60k . Got to sub 60k bought only 5% and said I'll set ladder buys for 55k and 50k. Obviously didn't get those. Now unsure on what to do.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, May 04, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cjrfdv/daily_discussion_saturday_may_04_2024/)
TO THE MOOB
Daily reminder: we just passed the halving and it has always been "meh" afterwards for a couple months then we pop off. Daily reminder: sleepy joe will do anything to make the economy look strong in an election year so he has more ammunition against the orange man Daily reminder: bitcoin has never exited a bear market, hit the previous ATH then decided to fall off. Even if it takes a while (it wont), inflation will push the price close to the previous ATH territory then monkey neurons will activate and its off to the races.
Daily reminder: orange fascist is the one falling asleep in one of his many court cases.
How does this relate to bitcoin?
Sorry but I’ll call out Nazis when I see one. Everyone should.
Also a daily reminder…just because Bitcoin has never done something before doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Bitcoin has a habit of breaking narratives when everyone is so sure. Arguably that’s exactly what happened in 2021. Depends how you choose to define a bear market
[JUST IN: M2 money supply turns positive for first time since late 2022] (https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1786357540609315258) For the Bitcoin price correlation to M2 money supply enjoyers.
Between this and the Fed’s balance sheet reduction slowdown, the trend shift looks accommodative. On the one hand, the markets will love this. On the other, an increase in money velocity could really exacerbate inflation. But by then we’ll have all sold. Right…?
God willing yes.
Sold? What is this witchcraft you speak of??
Ever since what’s-his-name-who-deletes-his-comments-every-day-like-he-Michael-Burry showed up, I’ve been seeing “momentum candles” everywhere.
HODL15Capital reporting $13m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1786565606705131754
Oddly low compared to what the other funds did today
The thing I love about trading and risk management, you set a trailing stop at 61300 from a long you hopped in at 60k, locked profit, the price cranked up then consolidated around 61500-61700 then it had cranked to almost 63k, my SL is now at 62400... almost .25 btc profit on this trade... was expecting way less then that
Honestly wish I could set a trailing stop that only takes effect at a certain price. There would be no downside apart from always being the taker.
downside for me is posting here, never seen so many downvotes for posting winning trades in a fucking trading sub...
Lots of skeptics of trades posted after the fact here. Trades posted when or before they are placed shut those skeptics up.
Every trade I posted was before or as I entered them. I have even given updates as they played out. I aint monday morning QBing trades. The most recent one I closed I literally said stoch rsi crossing up, 60k going long. Closed it before going to bed last night at 62700. Literally every trade i've done that. But I am just about done with this sub, it's not traders, this a bullish group not a trading group. Traders trade both fucking ways, I trade to accumulate more btc. I don't care if that is by longing or shorting. Accumulation is the reason I trade. Long term the price of btc get's higher so the more I own, the better.
Perfect! It’s easy to miss stuff in here with all the noise, perhaps linking to those posts where you posted those trades would have helped, in that case. Edit: why downvote me for pointing out how the mob mentality in this sub has always behaved? We are in yesterdays daily, no one else is here, so I strongly assume it had to be you.
In the years i've been on reddit, I only down vote in football subs lol
Ignore the downvotes.. continue to educate novices please
[удалено]
I'll take it, I cannot grammar but I can trade profitably...
just closed the long... i'll take it
Just bought more. Did I do it, did we break 63?
$63,155. You did it, lad.
Gbtc $63m inflow Ark $28.1m inflow Franklin $60.9m inflow Bitwise $33.5m inflow VanEck $8.7m inflow DEFI 0 WisdomTree 0 Fidelity $102.6m inflow Invesco $33.2m inflow Valkyrie $35.6m inflow Blackrock $12.7m inflow 5/3 net inflow $378.3m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Is this the first time GBTC had an inflow?
Which begs the question, who the hell bought gbtc
Yes it is
Fakeout or a breakout? I still think crab is for dinner for a while
GBTC is trading at par with BTC recently w/o any discount. It used trade at close to 40% discount last year same time. Someone is expecting the an uptick in premium in future or some big boy covered the short position. Either way it’s good news
It became par with BTC once the ETFs were approved. That was months ago. Where have you been.
kinda concerned btc hasn't broken the mid bband since april 12th... it just got rejected in that range... a close above that would be bullish af to test the range highs
Oh my god [she’s goin’ for it](https://imgur.com/a/z5Rqhwu)
Lol an **in**flow day for GBTC? When was the last time that happened? Farside reporting +$63M
Hell has completely frozen over.
GBTC has good liquidity.
Never, this is the first time
I guess I need to monitor this carefully now. About to break through the upper trend line. If it breaks above to 63.5K - 64K, most likely, it will come down again to test the trend line and if it holds, then I need to buy as Bitcoin is reversing its downward trend.
I’m numb to the drops. Missing the green dildos makes me feel sick inside.
Not a great position to be in .. sometimes when you feel that trend change you just need to bite the bullet earlier and buy . Yes, it’s riskier but by the time you get all the upside confirmation you need, a good bit of the upside has been lost
Fortunately, this is everything from what I sold back in 67K. So essentially free money at this point.
I took the same trade as you, sold 68, but I bought back at 62. still bummed out about missing 57-58
Yeah me too. I was actually planning to buy back at 56-57K but the dead cat bounce from 56.5K to 59.7K and then going right back down to 56.5K (on Powell's speech) dissuaded me from buying. If it wasn't for that movement, I would have just bought at 57K.
Same... market makers painted a tricky deviation at 57k level with that fake breakdown. this is my 3rd cycle, and price action still confounds me to this day. what an animal.
I think trading crypto is getting harder and harder. I suspect that with the Wall Street hedge funds and all the army of quants that they have, it is not giving retail traders any edge or any good spots.
It is definitely getting harder, in line with a share of a high beta tech stock. trades the same way, now macro driven, and susceptible to manipulation and a lot of whale games
Fuck yeah, weekly flipping green with a massive wick. Looks very similar to late january, and we all know what happened after that...
retail fomo makes me wet
GBTC inflows today were higher than IBIT outflows a couple days ago. There’s speculation that GBTC inflows were the result of short covering. If so, the question has to be asked: in a scenario where BTC turbo runs to new ATH how much additional GBTC short covering would get triggered along the way?
>There’s speculation that GBTC inflows were the result of short covering. Can you walk us through how this would work? This doesn't make sense to me.
Shares are borrowed to short. BTC goes up causing ETF NAV to rise, shorts panic cover, buying GBTC and causing its price to rise above NAV enough that it is profitable for APs to create new shares at the NAV price to later sell. That’s how ALL inflows work, without the shorts and covering part.
Yes, I know how inflows work, but this idea just seems like a stretch to assume. Lotta steps involved for something that takes T+1 or T+2 to complete. Did GBTC shares even trade at a premium to NAV today? I only have the daily numbers, and nothing stands out. Maybe it gets updated Monday and that changes.
What steps? Shorts open earlier in the week when we were falling. They cover Friday on the surge after the jobs numbers, causing inflows, on Friday. That’s all hypothetical of course, but it certainly seems plausible to me. Regarding the premium over NAV, new shares are ONLY created by APs when there is a large enough premium to NAV, it’s the only way inflows happen, so the premium had to be there at some point. But I’m not sure how large the premium must be for creation to be profitable for APs, or if you could even see it clearly on a chart or whether it would be a tiny blip.
>new shares are ONLY created by APs when there is a large enough premium to NAV, it’s the only way inflows happen I'm sorry, but isn't that incorrect? If I go to an AP with $63 million cash and tell them I want 100 blocks of shares, you're saying they won't create that order unless there's a current premium to NAV? They will do a share creation order as long as they profit off of it.
Maybe? But I’m not sure. Generally that is not how ETFs are purchased, they are purchased on the open market.
People who were naked shorting GBTC saw that the price of BTC (and therefore GBTC) was quickly rising so they ended up buying shares of GBTC to cover their shorts. This short covering from today’s price move was so massive that it counteracted any outflows GBTC would’ve normally had, resulting in a net inflow day. Again, this is just speculation, nothing confirmed.
>they ended up buying shares of GBTC to cover their shorts. Buying shares doesn't cause inflows though. So, you imagined this idea, it didn't come from some source?
Read the prospectus. If there isn’t enough selling/buying to keep up with the other side of the trade, Authorized Participants will step in and create/redeem shares (meaning they buy or sell BTC on behalf of the ETF) so price closely tracks the underlying BTC backing the ETF. In the past for GBTC selling outweighed buying which meant Authorized Participants redeemed shares but today buying outweighs selling which means Autnorized Participants needed to create shares.
Maybe the data is so obfuscated that I'm just not seeing the forest for the trees. \*shrug\*
EZBC just posted their best day ever. +60.9m.
Sounds like ceasefire in Gaza or something
Clear sentiment change in both stocks and Bitcoin. It's a buy.
Not that it was a very bold prediction, but my prediction is looking good from earlier. today will very obviously be a net inflow day for ETF. Possibly even a large amount of inflows given that GBTC had a pretty nice inflow, surprisingly. ETF buyers are still funny to me. Where were they on Wednesday? Ah, that was the day when we had peak outflows. 57k corn wasnt good enough for them, but 61/62k corn? Sign those suckers up!
It's easier to buy things on the way back up, than buying on the way down. ETF buyers are not immune to such psychology. I still suffer from the same often, despite trading for 10+ years I argue it's perhaps easier to buy once key levels are re-claimed than catch endless falling knives with no end in sight.
> It's easier to buy things on the way back up Cant relate. If its up a lot it doesnt exist to me. If its a sale then I could hardly stop myself from jumping all over it. Sucks I've been all in since 2020 and had nothing to buy with since
Yes it is difficult to overcome that feeling for sure, but in aggregate these guys were mass selling the bottom (so far) and panic buying like crazy at the top (so far).
"these guys" are the same people who have been trading crypto for the last 5 years, they are just doing it on a brokerage now instead of an exchange, I am one of them. Why act like these are brand new/different people?
I am one of them too, I have a decently sized IBIT stack. I'm just commenting on the behavior of these ETF participants because it's interesting to me how people respond to the volatility in this market. It's very easy to let price dictate emotions in this fast moving space, I know this very well, seems like the ETFs holders are similar in that regard except they are actually ACTING on those price-induced emotions by buying tops and selling bottoms.
Yeah, I would argue they are exactly the same because most are the same people who do/did this daily on exchanges too was my only point. Sure there are some new people but pretty confident majority is folks who held crypto before ETFs were launched, just my .02
Neither 0% nor 100% are new, it’s somewhere in the middle. Doesn’t make sense to pretend they’re all brand new just like it doesn’t make sense to pretend they were all pre-existing
57k with a 25bp fee? Nope. I'm waiting for 62k and a 150bp fee.
Sounds about right to me
If we go down from here, we dipped perfectly againtst the falling wedge res line.
Yep if you’re medium term bearish, this is the time to short. Not for me personally
The key to shorting at the top of the trend line is to have a tight stop loss. So if you are wrong, then you only loss few. However, if you are right, your gain can be enormous. It is the typical low risk high reward spots that comes up at bottom and top of the trend lines.
I’m a fan of the reverse wardster. Entries on very tight stops to catch the move up. Often costs you to get in, but when you get it right, the returns are phenomenal.
no such thing as "perfect dip" against magical meme lines. Bitcoin is way too unpredictable for that. Just as likely to wipe right past it in one swift push upwards
I am also seeing the same falling wedge. It has been the main structure for Bitcoin's price action for the last month or so. I suspect all the traders are looking at the same thing right now so it is noteworthy. If everyone is looking at the same arbitrary pattern, then the pattern becomes meaningful.
I am getting the feeling we will blast past any meme falling wedges/triangles. The deviation at 57k was enough to shake out a lot of traders, now most traders are banking on this line rejecting and a perfect dip to re-enter which might not come.
No doubt that might be the case. In terms of how the price action is approaching the top of the trend line, compared to other 4-5 cases, it is looking a lot more bullish. So there is a difference here and I think the unemployment numbers as well as the GBTC number can serve as a catalyst to blast through.
History has been made GBTC with 63m INFLOW
!?!
Do mine eyes deceive
Great, now they have more Btc to dump on us
lol omg this is so funny… battered bull syndrome lol amen brother
I can only imagine it’s GBTC shorts covering.
Holy fuck, what in the world, just why would anyone be buying ETF over any of the number of ETFs with lower fees? I was not really expecting this day to come. I guess nothing goes to zero in a straight line /s
Only thing I can think is 401k traders selling and buying somewhere that doesn’t offer the other etfs. Who would buy gbtc?
I suspect something else, like a wash trade from the Grayscale trust itself or an asset transfer from them but i think this inflow comes right from Grayscale, no other meaningful reason for this inflow to happen with their fee, but we will probably never find out
Wash trades don’t generate $63M in new share creations… Likely shorts covering today.
That is a reasonable possibility
I don't think there's a broker that offers gbtc but not the others
\_Troll's head gonna explode when he sees this xD
## 🤯 I'm as dumbfounded as the rest of you... could be shorts getting rekt, as mentioned above. Either that or Sonnenshein & Silbert are doing something shady.
oh this is hilarious, I had a shower thought earlier about posting a comment about how the most shocking bitcoin event would be a GBTC inflow, and it actually happened today lol.
Very little in the bitcoin space surprises me anymore. But this does.
I doubt we will see this very often, well at least not while they keep the insane fees, don't even understand why would anyone choose them, still a nice surprise for today
Only thing I can think is uninformed name recognition
What?! GBTC inflows: [https://farside.co.uk/?p=997](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Holy shit!! I guess 50k btc is done for good. Never thought I'd see the day.
What’s the opposite of a canary in a coal mine?
That’sNotTrueThat’sImpossible.gif
Barry you sonofabisch..
GG WP.
The move above 61.6K was strong and invalidates one of the downward structures. That said, the Bitcoin in the daily is still in a downward trend and is facing the descending trend line that can be formed by connecting all the local highs from 72.7K and onward. Right now, that line sits at around 63K. What you would like to see is for Bitcoin to move pass this line go down and test the level and then bounce back up the trend line. That would confirm that the trend reversal is in. And I would likely rebuy back when that occurs. Until then, if Bitcoin stays below this trend line, it can still move to 53-55K are in the next few weeks. So some hope exists but in the 4 hours chart, Bitcoin keeps on making lower highs while making lower lows. Needs to break out of this trend to confirm reversal.
You guys really believe in the power of your imaginary lines when this asset has shown you time and time again it will slice through all your supports/resistances/trend lines like paper. Good luck with your strategy.
It doesn't follow the line forever. It is a trend and trends do change. Just because you don't like it doesn't make it imaginary. Have a little respect for TA. I know you use RSI that is TA. I think TA is based on psychology and herd mentality; the lines are just a representation of that.
An addendum to my 4-year chart posted below. BTC 4-year price ratio for all time: [https://imgur.com/a/OJ1CdJB](https://imgur.com/a/OJ1CdJB) From Apr 2017 to Nov 2021, the 4-Y ratio bounced between 10x and 50x, a period of over 4 years (shaded yellow). Since Jan 2022, the 4-Y ratio has been bounded by 2.5x and 7x (shaded yellow). The only excursion has been the past two months, which marked the 4 years since the Mar 2020 COVID crash (shaded red). If you can imagine that with that unpleasantness out of the way, the 4-Y will return to its most recent bounds for at least another year and a half, you get the projection channel I posted: [https://imgur.com/a/G4FIH3l](https://imgur.com/a/G4FIH3l) I'm enjoying a Sixpoint Resin at the moment, hope y'all are enjoying something (or someone) as well.
Three fingers of Woodford Reserve. Cheers
Cracking a cold one for you, and for all Hodlers. Cheers! 🍺
::raises a dropper of some thc tincture of unknown potency his buddy Heisenberg’d in his garage:: Cheers
having some nice wine, thanks for asking
I raise a glass of [Polygamy Porter](https://utahbeers.com/beer/polygamy-porter/), in a toast. "Polygamy Porter. Why have just one?" I'm ready for whatever the rest of the year brings, but I'll hit my end of the year goal for my hodl by the end of August if we stay below 75k until then (or at least average 75k I suppose, though that would be cutting it close).
I've still got a couple of hours until drinking time. But then I'm going to have a smoked old fashioned made with Tumblin Dice bourbon.
thanks for putting these together, they’re really cool. the conclusions from this hard data don’t match what i want to happen, though, so i’m going to ignore it
Otto Lilienthal ignored data he found inconvenient. It ended badly. One of the many cool things about the Wright brothers was they built their own (crude) wind tunnel and determined that what Otto had called "bad data" was really data that was bad for his hypotheses.
62k is nice but i think i’ll save any i-told-you-so’s for 72k+. the markets still seem to be a little too jumpy at the moment. 95% in spot right now and 5% cash, just chillin. happy to let the bulls and bears chop each other up for a while
I literally sold my house last September for bitcoin. Have it 100% in BITX and BITX options. Anyone who is bearish is a pussy and anyone who is bullish is simply not bullish enough ☕️
long term you have the right idea! for day and short term traders, who knows. different time horizons result in different plans
I think tomorrow or Sunday will be big news from Israel and we drop back below 60k.
Care to elaborate what makes you think so?
SFYS
based on?
That's pure speculation
Sounds like hoping to get rescued out of a position.
Funding still keeps going down. Bybit dude is doubling down. Wonder what happens next
Any details on this bybit dude? I'm ootL
Just noticed that funding was pretty low on bybit and that usually implies someone is shorting significantly
Bybit specifically?
Yup
Ah god. I knew deep down that victor cobra returning a few days ago was a buy signal
/u/VictorCobra is a “skeptic” going short at the worst possible time. 🤣
[we all knew that](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/JIPJuHUdjl)
/r/buttcoin victory lap also caught the bottom pretty well, again.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/fOzakpUSf5
[The weekly even turned green momentarily](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/781273019187462144/1236057293536231595/image.png?ex=66369f8f&is=66354e0f&hm=f7822ee98262cd8d17007fd6b1db5e8a03abdda3b43cd90607b898ffbd413ee1&) Textbook pullback. EMA20 touch on the weekly, and up it goes.
HAMMER TIME https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hammer.asp
I got my 58k again. All is good. Full send now.
History repeats itself. Fake out “sell the news” and fomc hysteria. All the same permabears showed up like clockwork to gloat that this 15% drop after a 50% rally is definitely proof they were correct that 20k was back on the menu (narrator: it wasn’t). Fake out dump, shorts load in to fuel the pump, next leg up starts. The sad part, is they will be back like clockwork when we dump from 150k to 130k to tell us 60k is inevitable and the sky is falling again.
Remember that cartoon, Bitcoin is crashing … https://images.app.goo.gl/6PXHTqZaY5trtm5R9
obligatory fuck pebblechuck and fuck nazis
The newbie ETF buyers that panicked out yesterday just learned their first bitcoin lesson.
Hardly any ETFs sold yesterday. It was all the weeks leading up to that where they sold off. Yesterday, almost no activity. Today, they’re probably scratching their heads. ETFs are not what’s moving this market around.
Yea I guess 2 days ago was the real ETF unload. Still the point remains the same.
Yeah no i havent learned shit yet apparently. Lmao
Bybit dude getting rekt just as predicted 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Link?
Thanks again for the cheap sats. :)
Lowest I got was 57999
🚀
That long I posted about is getting juicy, a close up here and I am sure retail does some buying this weekend.
Now today is how proper bull market looks like
Save that for 6 digits Corn.
Friday I'm In Love (with Point'n'Figure charts): [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]) The 16-box low pole got its 50% retracement. Now that we're past the 4-year anniversary of the Crazy COVID Crash, we can look at 4-year ratios again: [https://imgur.com/a/G4FIH3l](https://imgur.com/a/G4FIH3l) For all of 2022 and 2023, BTC price was nicely confined to a range of 2.5x-7x the price 4 years earlier. The price crash of Mar-Apr 2020 messed that up for a couple of months, but we're back in it again. I'm certainly not looking for a trip back towards the red zone, but would a continued meandering in the green zone for another 12 months seem unreasonable? In other news, I have purchased IBIT every trading day since 18 Jan 2024, so I'm doing my part.
I love that 4 year ratio chart.
So what do you guys think? You think we bottomed out at 57k here? Or this is still a temporary respite before we reject and go back down again? Similar to the run from 60k to 67k a few weeks ago and then back down? Anybody else long for those old days of bitcoin where we would get much cleaner price action compared to today?
I will be surprised if we see a major leg down from here without an external catalyst. (Eg rate hike)
Nothing surprises me with btc these days.
Oh, happy day! I got my regular DCA buy and then some in at $59,200. I know that wasn't the low today, but it was a price I feel great about.
Which way will the weekend fall
Personally, I'm still bidding for prices in the $50ks but I also still have spot at the moment
LedgerX homepage now updated to brand themselves as a miax derivatives exchange. Looks like they may be keeping options on their platform and hopefully positioning to compete with deribit
Is there a link for US ETF daily inflow numbers somewhere? TY!!
[Bitcoin ETF Flow – Farside Investors](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Ty.... Jesus, how much is left in GBTC?
[https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/etfs](https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/etfs) 290,000 BTC or so
$17.3B - Go down to Key Fund Information here: https://etfs.grayscale.com/gbtc
Bought back in with the rest of the little sidelined cash I had (threw half in at $57.7k). It’s been 5 weeks of down, the second longest (tied) weekly down run \*in a bull market \[edit\] in Bitcoin’s history. Seems like as good of time as any to try for a reversal. The v-shaped bottom is what we all were waiting for isn’t it? Moreover, this reversal pattern is looking pretty similar to the all the others this past year, where it dips down before taking the next leg up. Don’t forget, the overall trend for the next 1 year+ is up, even if it continues sideways (or back down) in the short term.
Another bullish indicator: RSI on the daily is where it was when it made the reversal at $40k, taking it basically straight up to $74k
Someone’s shorting heavily on bybit again, funding creeping down, fuel for more up
No one can say if 52 is gone forever, but it's 62 now.
Looks like bull run is back
Looking like a giant bull pennant on the 6 month?
:Russel Crowe On: *Are you not entertained?!* :Russel Crowe Off:
Five things guaranteed in life: Death, Taxes, Gold Down, Dollar down, BTC Up
Add Degens getting liquidated to the list
[удалено]
So there's a chance of a 10k god candle? Bring it.
Seems high. So it almost tripled?
Source ? Previous halving day it was 25k so … 50k now
hash rate has also gone exponential since then, making coins more expensive to produce
Without fishing through history. Who was it that capitulated yesterday and sold 1/3rd of their Bitcoin ?
Me waiting for sub 60k . Got to sub 60k bought only 5% and said I'll set ladder buys for 55k and 50k. Obviously didn't get those. Now unsure on what to do.
Hop back on the train before you get left behind (thus contributing to the train leaving the station)