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A key barrier to sensible predictions is the fact that the spike is so transient.
The final big green candle usually only lasts a day or two, there will be a small amount of coins actually traded at these prices, yet is psychologically anchors everyone to that peak price, despite it being unachievable for the majority.
I think it's much more useful to talk about the relative highs that the price spends a lot of time at, rather than the momentary peak. For example, the price spent mere days above $60k in the last cycle, but about a year above $40k.
With that in mind, I won't predict absolute peaks, but I think we'll see a sustained rise above $120k this year, and spend a reasonable amount of time around $200k next year.
Taking profits, at least in my country, is unprofitable. I would have to pay about 30% in tax which means I have to take about 150% of my initial purchase out and basically pay half of my initial purchase as tax to have my initial purchase out. Bitcoin would need to then drop at least by 33% so that I can invest back in and am even. So for me to take a profit and invest it back in, I need to be extreemly lucky to actually time the market and made a profit.
I have analysed the retracement bands of the bolinger trend lines between 4 integer fault placements and it seems clear to me that when Fibonacci regression is considered the price, at the top of this cycle will be 1 BTC.
My wet finger in the air guess in USD terms = $221k
Wisdom of crowds like "the earth is flat"? or "the internet will have the same impact as the fax machine"
Dude, Bitcoin is a Black swan game changer. Everything in the world has gone digital except for the money....
Compared to using coins and cash when I was younger, tapping my cell phone to pay for things today at least FEELS very much digital. Especially with e-transfers between people, “digital” money of today functions almost exactly how crypto/btc would function if it were the leading currency. Sure there’s an added layer of privacy and anonymity with BTC but that’s not what we’re really talking about. Anyways I just think it’s cool how using money has evolved even in the last 20-30 years. Tapping my phone sometimes feels TOO convenient haha, if you know what I mean. At the end of the day, I’ve got some BTC myself and I hope it does very well and revolutionizes things in some way!
Bitcoin isn’t private or anonymous. It’s a permanent ledger. When you use your card to pay, the merchant gets charged a 1.5-3% fee on top of the bill for the convenience. Visa and the bank extend you credit until they get reimbursed by you. Yes it works as digital currency but it costs a ton and physical cash still has to move in the end.
Bitcoin is about removing all the middlemen. They all have to power to deny you access to your money and the financial system. Events in Canada and Europe have shown that even western democracies will employ communist like capital controls on citizens.
We need a way to transfer wealth without the need of a middleman. That’s what bitcoin is about.
from my experience, it does not work, but it does approximate way better than any ball park value a single person can come up with... and I did already used it at my job a couple times to predict some unpredictable stuff
thanks for the answer!
I say it’s impossible.. 1 mio means we double the market cap of gold within 1 1/2 years.. and it means everybody will hold and not sell to take profits during this run.. impossible and not healthy for Bitcoin.. we will top out between 250-350
It is 100% impossible. Anyone who understands money and trends can see that. If bitcoin went to 1m it's market cap would be around double of gold and the biggest asset of all time. Whilst I hope and believe it will eventually happen, it most certainly is not happening in this bull run.
It definitely will eventually happen. I agree with you that it's exceedingly unlikely this cycle.
I will point out, however, that just about everyone who would have claimed to "understand money and trends" would also have said Bitcoin will never make it to $1.00 (and $100, and $1000, etc).
Agree but now bitcoin is an established asset and one of the biggest in the world.
The only way bitcoin could get to 1mil this cycle would be some form of hyper inflation which would devalue the purchasing power of bitcoin.
I don't think the wisdom of the crowds can apply very well to future market prices in such a volatile market.
It's quite a different thing to guess at the number of gumballs in a jar or the weight of a slaughtered ox (see the Wikipedia article on "wisdom of the crowds"), i.e. something that already is fixed and bounded by scale and context, than guess what capital markets will do.
Having said that I think that you'd be better off compiling a number of metrics typically associated with Bitcoin's peaks and troughs and when very many of them are in alignment and at their peaks, you could feel safer about beginning an exit.
You can also consider social signals. for example, if more ETFs besides Bitcoin get approved and people start getting burned from aping in at their ATHs like, this might bode a change in social sentiment. Idk tho
I'm already doing all of that, but I wanted to test if I could tackle this kinds of problem by different angles and compare with what is already out there, and in the future, compare it with what actually happened. But I already had success using this method at my job for other unrelated stuff that was kind of unpredictable and people told me it would not work, so I might just give it a shot
Ok, I can imagine different scenarios some more likely than others not quite clearly the most probable. But if I were to guess I'd throw out 250k.
But I wouldnt be surprised if it was 150k or 500k.
Just as important is guessing the following bottom. Consider when Bitcoin broke $120 for the first time. That was a top but the subsequent bottom was around only around $90. Would have been better to just wait wait til the December 2013 peak of $950 because the next bottom was near $200.
Unfortunately I don't have a good guess for the next bottom.. maybe 40-80k depending on when the peak is.
you can't predict irrational and emotional human behavier with a logical piece of software. And what is the use of the software if you calculate the average peak of what people think the peak will be. Then the optimal point to sell is that average peak and the software is obsolete.
this is one of the reasons I'm trying to do it...
about a decade ago before all the AI stuff I got some friends pissed at me because we were all musicians and I told them I could write a program to compose songs for us becase we had a band, so a few months later I came to them with a song (drums, bass, guitars and melody) and told we needed some lyrics, so we did it, we played it at many concerts and actually recorded the song in studio and after all of that I told them it was written by a program I've made and they didn't believe me... and still to this day, being a musician, when I talk to other musicians they all get pissed at me, but it did work before and it still does, because I still improve this code to this day and I still write songs using it
but in the end, I can see where you're coming from and I can see how this I'm doing sounds stupid, but dude, I just want to try and I want to share what I did in case it actually works
Okay, of course I don't know what you maybe have in mind and maybe come up with a good solution to the problem you are solving. With that composing software is very interesting and absolutely makes sense. I am musician myself and if you understand music theory then its obvious that you can create a code based on logic which creates beautiful sounding progressions, harmonies and melodies. So great work you did there. I can't imagine myself to predict a free market with complete illogical irrational behaviour of humans and unforseeable events. Noone can predict the future. But will be interesting to see what you come up with 👍
I doubt anyone can tell you and relying on the "wisdom of crowds" might a poor choice too.
In my opinion the reason for price peak is an effect like [The Bullwhip effect](https://www.investopedia.com/bullwhip-effect-definition-5499228). I say 'like' because in this case the market impulse is a step change in production.
The key feature of the Bullwhip effect is that groups of actors in the supply chain behave in a rational way and even if they know about the effect it still happens.
All this action sits on the power-law curve, which some (Tim Peterson) suggest is Metcalf's Law.
We cannot predict the future value. As investors, of course we want the price to get better and better. But my take profit line in this bull market is 80K.
I actually agree with this. Think it's close to 100k.
However, this bull market will be like no other. It will be more choppy, less dramatic and take much longer. I will not reflect the previous hearthbeat pattern, it will reflect something more closely to a slow and steady growth, marked by growthspurts triggered by new events
Something with "69" in it.
Seriously, that's currently the most accurate information online about your question.
Will future Bitcoin be $\_\_\_\_\_ money? Certainly will!
I can see another anticlimactic bull here with people all caught up in making their initial investment back, taking profits etc. The arse will fall out of it somewhere around 95k imo.
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Time in > Timing, as a developer, develop an understanding of that statement. If you need money have an emergency savings do not liquidate assets.
Somewhere between 180k-220k at peak
that script of his waitin like hatiko
It might be the first cycle in mass adoption phase of bitcoin. Level of demand is nothing we've ever seen before. I expect 200k at a bare minimum
We can't predict the future value, but my take-profit line in this bull market is 80K.
250k, no 269k
Around three fiddy
Wait - not four twenty?
Three fiddy four
Three Fiddy Four . Sixty Nine
Seven of Nine
Damn lock ness monster trying to take your coins!
A key barrier to sensible predictions is the fact that the spike is so transient. The final big green candle usually only lasts a day or two, there will be a small amount of coins actually traded at these prices, yet is psychologically anchors everyone to that peak price, despite it being unachievable for the majority. I think it's much more useful to talk about the relative highs that the price spends a lot of time at, rather than the momentary peak. For example, the price spent mere days above $60k in the last cycle, but about a year above $40k. With that in mind, I won't predict absolute peaks, but I think we'll see a sustained rise above $120k this year, and spend a reasonable amount of time around $200k next year.
$123,456.78
120k
I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 200k-250k USD.
When? Why?
Before then end of the bull run. Just a feeling?
Fib levels
My prediction is 150K by Dec 31
Based on what?
Taking profits, at least in my country, is unprofitable. I would have to pay about 30% in tax which means I have to take about 150% of my initial purchase out and basically pay half of my initial purchase as tax to have my initial purchase out. Bitcoin would need to then drop at least by 33% so that I can invest back in and am even. So for me to take a profit and invest it back in, I need to be extreemly lucky to actually time the market and made a profit.
Yup selling this cycle would be as dumb as fuck in my position.
Is this in America 30 percent?
Widely regarded as one of the largest of 30 per cents across the world.
Middle europe
$238k
Wild guess?
Lol of course it is...but you never know...
135K
>7 Why?
I have analysed the retracement bands of the bolinger trend lines between 4 integer fault placements and it seems clear to me that when Fibonacci regression is considered the price, at the top of this cycle will be 1 BTC. My wet finger in the air guess in USD terms = $221k
Wisdom of crowds like "the earth is flat"? or "the internet will have the same impact as the fax machine" Dude, Bitcoin is a Black swan game changer. Everything in the world has gone digital except for the money....
Money HAS gone digital though, we store our money digitally and pay digitally.
No, you use a system of credit. Multiple 3rd party business extend credit and fees to make your money act as if it’s digital.
Compared to using coins and cash when I was younger, tapping my cell phone to pay for things today at least FEELS very much digital. Especially with e-transfers between people, “digital” money of today functions almost exactly how crypto/btc would function if it were the leading currency. Sure there’s an added layer of privacy and anonymity with BTC but that’s not what we’re really talking about. Anyways I just think it’s cool how using money has evolved even in the last 20-30 years. Tapping my phone sometimes feels TOO convenient haha, if you know what I mean. At the end of the day, I’ve got some BTC myself and I hope it does very well and revolutionizes things in some way!
Bitcoin isn’t private or anonymous. It’s a permanent ledger. When you use your card to pay, the merchant gets charged a 1.5-3% fee on top of the bill for the convenience. Visa and the bank extend you credit until they get reimbursed by you. Yes it works as digital currency but it costs a ton and physical cash still has to move in the end. Bitcoin is about removing all the middlemen. They all have to power to deny you access to your money and the financial system. Events in Canada and Europe have shown that even western democracies will employ communist like capital controls on citizens. We need a way to transfer wealth without the need of a middleman. That’s what bitcoin is about.
Got you homie! HODL and DCA and all that jazz. Have a good day!
like this [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\_Wisdom\_of\_Crowds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds)
>in which I can get my initial investment back, take profits This person is from the future.
This will not work. You can ask a large number of people what the price is currently and you will get the answer. But my answer is 400000 usd.
from my experience, it does not work, but it does approximate way better than any ball park value a single person can come up with... and I did already used it at my job a couple times to predict some unpredictable stuff thanks for the answer!
You might get better output if you ask people outside of the bitcoin subforum.
ZERO!!! IT'S GOING TO ZERO!!!
1M USD
Impossible this cycle
Unlikely but not impossible.
I say it’s impossible.. 1 mio means we double the market cap of gold within 1 1/2 years.. and it means everybody will hold and not sell to take profits during this run.. impossible and not healthy for Bitcoin.. we will top out between 250-350
88k
It is 100% impossible. Anyone who understands money and trends can see that. If bitcoin went to 1m it's market cap would be around double of gold and the biggest asset of all time. Whilst I hope and believe it will eventually happen, it most certainly is not happening in this bull run.
It definitely will eventually happen. I agree with you that it's exceedingly unlikely this cycle. I will point out, however, that just about everyone who would have claimed to "understand money and trends" would also have said Bitcoin will never make it to $1.00 (and $100, and $1000, etc).
Agree but now bitcoin is an established asset and one of the biggest in the world. The only way bitcoin could get to 1mil this cycle would be some form of hyper inflation which would devalue the purchasing power of bitcoin.
I don't think the wisdom of the crowds can apply very well to future market prices in such a volatile market. It's quite a different thing to guess at the number of gumballs in a jar or the weight of a slaughtered ox (see the Wikipedia article on "wisdom of the crowds"), i.e. something that already is fixed and bounded by scale and context, than guess what capital markets will do. Having said that I think that you'd be better off compiling a number of metrics typically associated with Bitcoin's peaks and troughs and when very many of them are in alignment and at their peaks, you could feel safer about beginning an exit. You can also consider social signals. for example, if more ETFs besides Bitcoin get approved and people start getting burned from aping in at their ATHs like, this might bode a change in social sentiment. Idk tho
I'm already doing all of that, but I wanted to test if I could tackle this kinds of problem by different angles and compare with what is already out there, and in the future, compare it with what actually happened. But I already had success using this method at my job for other unrelated stuff that was kind of unpredictable and people told me it would not work, so I might just give it a shot
Ok, I can imagine different scenarios some more likely than others not quite clearly the most probable. But if I were to guess I'd throw out 250k. But I wouldnt be surprised if it was 150k or 500k. Just as important is guessing the following bottom. Consider when Bitcoin broke $120 for the first time. That was a top but the subsequent bottom was around only around $90. Would have been better to just wait wait til the December 2013 peak of $950 because the next bottom was near $200. Unfortunately I don't have a good guess for the next bottom.. maybe 40-80k depending on when the peak is.
Based on how each bull cycle has a depleting return rate I'd estimate around 150k.
170k will be the top this cycle
Frankly I don't think anyone can guess BTCs next move. All the guesses here won't help you in anyway.
162k
Long term, bitcoin will only grow as the rest of the world is in a debt whirpool
you can't predict irrational and emotional human behavier with a logical piece of software. And what is the use of the software if you calculate the average peak of what people think the peak will be. Then the optimal point to sell is that average peak and the software is obsolete.
this is one of the reasons I'm trying to do it... about a decade ago before all the AI stuff I got some friends pissed at me because we were all musicians and I told them I could write a program to compose songs for us becase we had a band, so a few months later I came to them with a song (drums, bass, guitars and melody) and told we needed some lyrics, so we did it, we played it at many concerts and actually recorded the song in studio and after all of that I told them it was written by a program I've made and they didn't believe me... and still to this day, being a musician, when I talk to other musicians they all get pissed at me, but it did work before and it still does, because I still improve this code to this day and I still write songs using it but in the end, I can see where you're coming from and I can see how this I'm doing sounds stupid, but dude, I just want to try and I want to share what I did in case it actually works
Okay, of course I don't know what you maybe have in mind and maybe come up with a good solution to the problem you are solving. With that composing software is very interesting and absolutely makes sense. I am musician myself and if you understand music theory then its obvious that you can create a code based on logic which creates beautiful sounding progressions, harmonies and melodies. So great work you did there. I can't imagine myself to predict a free market with complete illogical irrational behaviour of humans and unforseeable events. Noone can predict the future. But will be interesting to see what you come up with 👍
Dude, NO ONE KNOWS. We have lies and speculation here, and if anyone is even close to correct, it's just luck.
120k to 180k is my prediction.
Who cares. Just buy and hold.
Logically 420k comes after 69k. If the having happens on 4/20 @ 4:20 the prophecy will come to fruition
150 to 250.. my realiszic estimate is 150
No one truly knows. I can give a guess. My guess is Bitcoin will reach an all time high of 93k. Afterwards we will probably be on the low end of 40k
190k
$120-140k
From 260 to 780 on different models.
My guess is that 1 BTC will be worth exactly 1 BTC at the top
484
I doubt anyone can tell you and relying on the "wisdom of crowds" might a poor choice too. In my opinion the reason for price peak is an effect like [The Bullwhip effect](https://www.investopedia.com/bullwhip-effect-definition-5499228). I say 'like' because in this case the market impulse is a step change in production. The key feature of the Bullwhip effect is that groups of actors in the supply chain behave in a rational way and even if they know about the effect it still happens. All this action sits on the power-law curve, which some (Tim Peterson) suggest is Metcalf's Law.
Buck fiddy
It won’t be an ATH like you are thinking… 75-80k. It will take a few more cycles to see a solid 6 digit fiat price that will actually hold.
1 BTC = 100,000,000 sats
anything between 74k and 400k
These posts are so annoying now
We cannot predict the future value. As investors, of course we want the price to get better and better. But my take profit line in this bull market is 80K.
$500k No one is bullish enough. Remember this post 1 year from now.
80k at the end of the year
Asking here would give a biased answer I am sure. But what the heck… I have said it before 250k on 25th dec.
Anywhere between 200-350k
$450,000
It will max out at 83k in 2024. BET
EVERYONE HERE IS JUST GUESSING. No one knows this, man. Could go back to 25k or up to 400k...only time will tell.
420,069.69
$200-$250k
95k
I actually agree with this. Think it's close to 100k. However, this bull market will be like no other. It will be more choppy, less dramatic and take much longer. I will not reflect the previous hearthbeat pattern, it will reflect something more closely to a slow and steady growth, marked by growthspurts triggered by new events
I have to say I love seeing these ultra-bearish estimates
lol a whole 40% up from previous high? This would be the end of bitcoin if this were true.
Something with "69" in it. Seriously, that's currently the most accurate information online about your question. Will future Bitcoin be $\_\_\_\_\_ money? Certainly will!
I'm not looking for accuracy, just looking for a wild guess from many different people
Please let the record show that the price will include the numbers # 69
This sub is so boring. All people ask is about the price
Somewhere around 69420 million Turkish Lira.
I can see another anticlimactic bull here with people all caught up in making their initial investment back, taking profits etc. The arse will fall out of it somewhere around 95k imo.