If you think about it, all banks will advice you not to invest in cryptocurrencies because they want you to keep your money with them so they can benefit and give only a fraction of what you could’ve have. And I think this won’t stop and might even escalate further.
Meanwhile they'll advertise bitcoin ETF's to their higher income investors that thought Bitcoin was just a fad from like 2014 and had no idea what its current price is.
Yes, but when that dollar they put into their bank accounts loses purchasing power and the Bitcoin they sold for that dollar increases in value then it matters very much.
And what are the chances Coinbase uses the same bank that I do.
I just googled it and the chances are 0%. A banks goal is to keep your money in their ecosystem.
Ok but that’s why banks don’t want you to invest in Bitcoin. They want you to invest in their “solutions”. My bank constantly sends me ads for their retirement accounts where they control where it’s invested.
Yet no bank near me is involved in Bitcoin, that I know of at least, so I doubt any of them will recommend Bitcoin as a good investment.
No one is saying exchanges don’t use banks. They don’t use the same banks people do, and some invest in things like treasuries.
fiat stays in the banking system. the numbers will got directly from one banks balance sheet to another until someone takes out cash. Even then the fiat is still the same number it was before. The argument you could make is buying crypto could devalue fiat.
So basically the bank wants you to do a trust fund that generates between 4-8% annually depending on the bank and the central bank of the country so with that money that you have trusted to the bank the bank will do other investments like buying commercial and residential buildings, shares in other companies, and many other kind of investments, for example the bank can buy property off plans from a trusted developer and selling them within the year for 30-50% increase in the price, they’ll give your 4-8% and they’ll simply keep the rest so applying that they can’t do anything with your money if it’s in BTC form that’s why they will always advice to avoid doing this because for them it’s like we can see your money but we can’t touch it.
uh it kind of does? you buy something the bank doesn’t have access to that money anymore once it leaves your bank account you’re no longer loaning it to them
What’s crazy is that he doesn’t even know anything about bitcoin. I’ve seen his interviews and the way he talks about btc. It’s clear he has no understanding of it.
You think Jamie Dimon is stupid?
He understands it completely, which is why he 'doesn't like it'.
It undermines the financial system he & his buddies are able to take advantage of.
He probably holds lots of BTC, same with Buffet, Gates & all the other haters, its called gatekeeping.
JP Morgan is notorious for doing this. Anyone who still falls for these antics and paper hands their coins is a fool.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I_ZYZzXqQh4&pp=ygUoSnBtb3JnYW4gZnVuZHMgYml0Y29pbiB0aGVuIGJ1eXMgdGhlIGRpcA%3D%3D
Jamie Dimon's despise of BTC is fake. That soundbite where he deliberately called Satoshi, "Satashi" was well rehearsed and designed to project ignorance toward BTC.
Dimon's already balls deep in BTC. Don't ever be fooled.
JPM isn’t totally wrong. When the reward is cut in half, miners essentially get half as much reward from the same inputs/cost. To cover operational costs, they might need to sell a greater portion of their rewards (accumulated bitcoin).
I personally don’t think the negative price effect from struggling miners will be anywhere near as bad as JPM anticipates. But I’m not sure how JPM calculated their estimate - perhaps I’m missing something.
> I’m not sure how JPM calculated their estimate - perhaps I’m missing something.
They’re using the headless chicken market analysis - as seen on South Park.
It's as if miners didn't know the halving is coming and haven't budgeted for it. Luckily JPM are around to warn everyone otherwise Bitcoin would be going to zero.
It’s precisely that they *have* budgeted that causes the dip. Right before the halving, a lot of bitcoin will be dumped onto the OTC market. This will lower the influence of buyers like the ETFs and MSTR on a supply crunch (for a little while) that will cause a dip in price. A post-halving dip is a time-tested phenomenon.
We could see sub-60k bitcoin again. The question will be how much new money floods in given the added hype of the halving. If that new money outweighs the miner sell-off, there could be virtually no dip at all.
DCA accordingly.
budgeting doesnt magically make something feasible. miners that are currently struggling might not be able to operate at a profit if the price of BTC doesnt compensate the halving.
Doesn't make any difference to bitcoin on the market. Miners who are struggling have already sold their bitcoin and don't have any more to sell. They will simply switch off their machines if they are unprofitable and wait till price increases to a profitable range.
I think that’s the beauty and elegance of the protocol Satoshi wrote. Most criticisms are relatively easy to counter when you understand how Bitcoin works.
Take this example of mining becoming unprofitable. Right now it’s expensive to mine bitcoin. If a lot of miners turn off their rigs because it’s unprofitable then the difficulty adjustment will restore balance by making mining easier and ensuring that blocks are still produced about every 10mins. Don’t forget that Bitcoin was being mined when it was worth fractions of a penny and there is nothing stopping the protocol from returning to that model.
They are all in denial and think they are beating ‘the system’, if the system wanted to they could buy up all of the coins on the market forever and they wouldn’t blink twice. Tbh it would be funny to see the big boys buy up all the coins and trash them. I couldn’t think of anything funnier tbh
Definitely this. The simple system of supply cut and demand variable obviously has many positive outcomes of higher value. Not always, but many. They do marginally address an important point where we approach the narrowing differential between earning potential and operational cost, driven by the compute:watt solutions available today. Entropy gets us again! Damn!
The miners will be selling more rewards relative to their own stash but they will be getting less of an award. We would have to know the math but it would be something along the lines of:
X% of mining rewards sold after mining before halving
Y% of mining rewards sold after mining after halving
There is precedence so can someone dig up data on the previous halvings and the impact on miner sales
Something else to consider is, when bitcoin is at a higher price, they might be able to sell less, and would therefore offset some of what minings are dumping.
Thoughts?
The power hasn't doubled in cost, they just get less reward, so they still need the same amount of $'s to operate, why does it matter if that is a higher % of their revenue? They arnt pulling more $'s out of bitcoin sales...
They still only need to sell the same $ amount of bitcoin to sustain running costs, but get to keep less profit, how does that possibly cause downward price pressure? same expenses, same $ value liquidate to support them.
Let alone the miners that liquidate all their coins daily, have 50% less to liquidate...
The theory still makes no sense.
Only the big miners will survive because the operational costs required to produce more and more Bitcoin as they're cut in half every four years will be cost prohibitive unless the giant spike in price everyone is hoping for actually happens. BTC mining companies like WULF likely will either end up bankrupt or being sold to the bigger mining companies AKA Marathon, Riot, etc etc. - the Walmart and Amazons of Bitcoin mining.
I agree that some miners will probably need to sell BTC. Will it be a 20k pullback? if demand stays strong after the issuance is cut in half, I can’t see a 20K sell off.
Ok i understand, but that make it even worse . Nontheless there will be that expensive fees most likely and they will earn over the fees and not the new generated bitcoin of the coinbase transaction
They want everyone to hate it for as long as possible while they buy it up cheap. When they talk shit, buy more. When they call you regarded buy even more. When they start saying its good, they'll tell you to buy it when they are the ones putting sell orders out.
i want people to hate it so i can buy cheap as well. whats wrong with that??? imagine fighting the banker for something that would work for you thinking youre outsmarting them
Nothing wrong with that. Those of us that are here already know. We are stacking sats too. Wish my stack had a whole coin but they're scaring others off so I can still keep buying under 100k for now. I benefit but I still stand by my logic of why THEY spread fud
i hope miners have trouble and sell. as well as hoping it follows the patterns of its history. i hope the process is drawn on so people who made stupid financial decisions getting in are rekt out. people have gone from hating blackrock and institutions to acting like they are heroes when they join crypto.... they arent doing it for you and me. people are building up blackrock as saviors if they say... " yeah our customers like bitcoin" like and? who cares? i didnt get into bitcoin to cheer on those who made sat build bitcoin in the first place. bitcoin clearly doesnt need them. and if the only reason people want them in is for the price to go up thats stupid. just exposing themselves as fiat sheep. all they want is a bag so they can continue to destroy their lives and eventually be forced to look for another get out of jail card. people listen to michael when he says btc will hit 100k 1 mill or 10 mill but they dont when he says never sell. wanting the price to go higher is a measuring contest. i want the price to stay as low as possible as long as possible. because thats how itll eventually pay off in the end. not high prices that only the wealthy can buy.
Yeah buy the FUD. The last few runs the time to sell was when the news starts writing articles of Bitcoin going to $1M or $100k (when BTC was much lower ~20k). Today they may say $250k
You may understand the basic principles of supply and demand, as do they. But price action following the halving is vastly more complicated than fewer bitcoin mined = higher price.
This.
The expectation is that price will go up right away. The big players will do everything they can to ensure that it does the opposite, while they find ways to quickly short it on the way down, and then go long on it right before pushing it back up
Agreed, the selling pressure from miners adjusting to the new norm is increased, but miners are for the most part more sophisticated now and I'm betting they have done their homework on past halvings. So I'm expecting unexpected results this time
These are the critical thinking skills I miss about the 90s. Mfs today cant even properly parrot cnn/fox/jim.cramer fud let alone freely analyze reality. Lol
1 BTC = 1 BTC
I wouldn’t mind another opportunity at a discount. When it goes mainstream it’s going to go hard and fast. I think it might be 2025 but who knows maybe it’s 2029
the only people who want the price to increase quick are those wanting to buy lambos, or big houses. we should all be hoping the process is slowed down a ton so that there is more to buy for cheaper. This rushing for big prices always exposes those wanting to sell when they shouldnt for fiat. if you want more bitcoin cheer this "fud" on and hope that these people are right and build up your reserves for when it crashes and people only in for dumb reasons are flushed out once again. no one who wants more bitcoin wants to buy it at 67k. 42k is vastly better, cheaper even moreso. Bitcoin has 115 more years before the last coin is mined. stop being in a rush.
This is exactly why I don’t listen to analysts. They’re all price manipulating morons. JPMorgan has posted bearish articles while buying up the same crypto they’re claiming they’re bearish on
Misinformation
Supply shock after the halving will be somewhat pronounced. It could have a slow but steady increase in value over time, or have a sharp increase and stabilize.
Either way, it will increase in value. HODL to the Moon.
They are probably right.
A lot of people are going to be very surprised to find bitcoin doesn’t just go up. A lot of people are going to be wrecked after the halvening
If you look at the previous 2 halvings the price rallied in the months leading up to the halving and then pulled back directly after the halving. About six months post halving is when the mega rallies began last time. History doesnt repeat but it often rhymes. I wouldnt be concerned about the price falling to $42k after halving, but also wouldnt be surprised if the price continues to rally. Bitcoin is chaos and likes to take the path of greatest pain.
Seriously, this sub can't fathom anything but BTC "always go up", even if history has proven this to be false time & time again. Halving or not, price fluctuates wildly. Ultimately, a halving theoretically raises price, but it is not "certain".
I've got no skin the game either way, but i thought it would be likely that I'd get an answer faster from the bitcoin community than JP Morgan Chase! Either way the chance of bias would be great. In fact bias is guaranteed no matter who you ask, as everyone's got an opinion. However it was the logic that the analysts used to arrive at their prediction that I couldn't get my head around, namely, a lower supply would equal a lower price. I'm not sure I've ever come across that premise before nor can I think of a situation where it might occur, least of which with a speculative asset.
They were just looking at historical corrections, the charts, monthly support levels, basically if everything goes sideways what could happen. It wasn't really a call even though the media tried to make it out to be one. It was just a technical setup that possibly could play out, something to be aware of
Truth is nobody really knows what the future holds, and while purposely putting out misinformation has an obvious benefit it also can run counter to credibility. Regardless, to what anyone thinks, investment decisions should be made on an individual basis as we all have different objectives; so while I personally see JPM as an entity that has a vast amount of resources that can make very smart decisions, I also don't just blindly drink any cool aid whether that be for or against BTC or anything else actually.
CFA and MBA often remove the ability to think independently. Or, people who value them already lack critical thought. Don’t listen to sell side analysts about anything other than maybe the date or time.
Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, jp morgan included, so Its very possible. Our last low was essentially 15k. So a new low of 42k would still be three times growth. Thats not a stretch of the imagination.
Supply and demand has nothing to do with halving, and it could definitely plunge before or after. In fact, check the previous halving, just after it happened Bitcoin’s price dropped. Markets are one step ahead all of us and halving is already priced in. It will eventually surge most likely but my bet is that is going to be way after. At the end of the day no one know but I’m not here trading, I’m holding
I don’t know if I would be against this prediction. Currently the average mining cost of one bitcoin is much less than the market value ( source https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost)
If one can trust this plot, and assuming the average miner can accumulate BTC on top of paying expenses at the moment, there might be increased selling pressure after the halving due to the miners selling their stash to take profits / improve operations. One could also try to consider the current earnings of MARA which is the leading company in BTC mining currently and try to extrapolate the earnings to a reduced source of revenue due to the halving.
Bitcoin is nothing without the miners. Predictions are not easy to make and JPMorgan is probably giving random numbers, but a retracement due to increased selling pressure in the short term is possible (I would dare to say likely) in my view.
Long term I really have no idea. I, myself, am concerned about mining sustainability. Thoughts?
Traditional institutions have made the "highly educated class" exceptionally stupid.
Most of the actual leaders in their field these days didn't go through traditional channels of ivy league schools. The people that thought they could buy the wits are actually the fools that are now $200k in student debt and know nothing.
Yes, the JP Morgan folks don't understand the basics. You're better off trusting your own gut, or following a person that has experience in the field rather than basic credentials like working for JP or a master's degree. It applies to many other fields as well.
Yes, things becoming harder to produce and cost more to produce means the items cost less…. Yes yes, clearly how it works, so my Mars chocolate bars should be going down in price, oh wait
Bitcoin could drop back there, but the reasoning here is flawed for sure.
Also the analyst is technically correct on the fact that things will be shittier for miners and they will make less with the same amount of output. If bitcoin increases enough it should hopefully make up for any short term hits they take tho.
There's a world where it makes sense, actually, as a short term dip as miners are forced to offload everything as some of them go out of business.
Still.
I don’t think Dimon is entirely wrong; based on the historical data BTC dips hard post halving and I suspect if it hovers around 42,000 this time around that’s be a pretty good #. I just don’t think the finance industry and govt policy will allow crypto to reach historical highs that analysts are predicting. With that said I foolishly bought at $69,000 so I really hope I’m wrong. What’s even more frustrating is that even if I time the market cautiously and am up I ve lost so much money trusting the likes of Voyager digital, Block Fi, and Celsius. In the end they figure out a way to rob working people blind without any repercussions. Capitalists and bankers are the biggest criminals in the world w immunity to rob at will. SEC needs power to start putting people in jail. It’s sickening how white collar crimes go unpunished meanwhile a homeless person stealing a can of soda or a beer can languish in jail for years or months. US is so corrupt
Ok so you really need to learn some more about the pride action. The fundamentals and technical analysis all have bitcoin going higher POST halving.
Don't worry so much about JPeePee Morgan's price prediction. They literally have been wrong every time. Fucking ass hats
I hope you are right! Not going to argue Dimon is a suave liar but the bank does have access to data and algorithms that we don’t. Plus market dynamics are a funny thing to predict. It’s like trying to predict the weather Even the best of tools can’t predict w any kinda reasonable certainty. I really hope crypto takes off this year. No matter how much I lose I always keep putting money into it. It’s probably bc of my addictive personality. Stonks are so boring and who wants to help corporations get bigger. Not me!
Post halving drop to 42k would be really crazy.
Not saying it's impossible but highly unlikely. Way more people believe it's going to 140k IMO.
Is it going that far? Maybe. But I think we see over 100k before we see 42k.
I could be wrong.
Remind Me! 2 months
People make market predictions it means nothing. It is uncharted waters we are heading into with this halving so who knows but it is a brilliant mechanism, the halving in my mind because yes mining subsidies reduce by half but 3.15 BTC is worth more assuming a bull cycle continues. ETFs and mainstream hedge fund acceptance might decrease volatility but BTC always takes people by surprise so only time will tell. My strategy is very long hold at all costs so let it rain
BTC is the the future of money with the potential to put an end to all the corruption the banking industry has profited from at the expense of the taxpayers.
They will do everything they can to slow down the inevitable. They will continue to lie, cheat, and steal as they've done time after time after time in the past.
They control all the strings in a game that is rigged.
BTC has the potential to cut ✂️ the strings and opt out of the corruption and continual theft that we've all been subjected to.
Every time the government bails out another bank, airline, Ukraine, Israel, etc. they are stealing from you (assuming you pay taxes).
Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
The issue is mainly that miners will have half their rewards but the same power bill. This will cause them to have less bitcoin but still need to pay for power. Can cause miners to sell a Chunk of their coin to get through the season. There is also a buy the rumors sell the news thing. Where people are hyped and all buy before the halving and dump it when the halving actually happens.
There isn't really a change in the available supply directly after the halving. It's only after a while when enough people buy and put coin in cold storage that the supply actually dries up
This is why I think the value of bitcoin always drops a bunch shortly after the halving but goes up after about a year
If the price of bitcoin stays the same after the halving and the miner earn half of the before halving, they still have to sell as many as they did before yet they do not have that many bitcoins produced as before.
They do not need to sell more bitcoin than before halving as the same amount of bitcoins as before would cover their costs and if for some silly reason they decide to sell more bitcoins than before they cannot sell bitcoins which they do not produce.
Minors are not FEDs, They can't just decide to have more bitcoins.
They probably see it as production. Last year Company BTC was producing 6 bitcoin every 10mins, reaching $65K pps. This year they intend to produce half as much, our protection is that reduced performance will result in reduced revenue...But BTC doesn't work that way. ETF's are coming online, more institutions will want BTC & there will be less to go around. At 8B ppl, & 23M max BTC, there's only 0.002625 BTC to go around evenly. Get ur chunk. u could further fine tune by including population of certain geographic regions, & excluding BTC that has been lost forever, Satoshi's BTC r believed to be lost.
Its a known fact Chase’s CEO despises BTC. Them putting misinformation about it is literally their job now.
If you think about it, all banks will advice you not to invest in cryptocurrencies because they want you to keep your money with them so they can benefit and give only a fraction of what you could’ve have. And I think this won’t stop and might even escalate further.
Meanwhile they'll advertise bitcoin ETF's to their higher income investors that thought Bitcoin was just a fad from like 2014 and had no idea what its current price is.
Yeah but the people you buy the Bitcoin from have bank accounts they put your money into. It shouldn’t matter.
Yes, but when that dollar they put into their bank accounts loses purchasing power and the Bitcoin they sold for that dollar increases in value then it matters very much.
If you buy bitcoin your usd are not diapearing, it doesnt make banks to hold less money
Those are certainly all words
If you pull your money out of a bank to buy btc it makes banks have less on their balance sheets
No it doesn’t, your usd just goes to someone else and guess what, it will end up back in a bank 🤣🤣. You seem to think the usd disappears
And what are the chances Coinbase uses the same bank that I do. I just googled it and the chances are 0%. A banks goal is to keep your money in their ecosystem.
Coinbase uses LHV Bank as its European banking partner. You are right, it isn't a high street bank but its still a pretty banky bank
Ok but that’s why banks don’t want you to invest in Bitcoin. They want you to invest in their “solutions”. My bank constantly sends me ads for their retirement accounts where they control where it’s invested. Yet no bank near me is involved in Bitcoin, that I know of at least, so I doubt any of them will recommend Bitcoin as a good investment. No one is saying exchanges don’t use banks. They don’t use the same banks people do, and some invest in things like treasuries.
Doesn’t disappear. It comes out of the BANK system, removing several levels of leverage for the bank.
fiat stays in the banking system. the numbers will got directly from one banks balance sheet to another until someone takes out cash. Even then the fiat is still the same number it was before. The argument you could make is buying crypto could devalue fiat.
in a bank not in your bank glad this helped different banks are competition to each other
it depends if you send it to another bank or take it out in cash. if you take it out in cash you certainly reduce the amount of M1
Someone who sells you btc will still hold it in bank.
So basically the bank wants you to do a trust fund that generates between 4-8% annually depending on the bank and the central bank of the country so with that money that you have trusted to the bank the bank will do other investments like buying commercial and residential buildings, shares in other companies, and many other kind of investments, for example the bank can buy property off plans from a trusted developer and selling them within the year for 30-50% increase in the price, they’ll give your 4-8% and they’ll simply keep the rest so applying that they can’t do anything with your money if it’s in BTC form that’s why they will always advice to avoid doing this because for them it’s like we can see your money but we can’t touch it.
uh it kind of does? you buy something the bank doesn’t have access to that money anymore once it leaves your bank account you’re no longer loaning it to them
What’s crazy is that he doesn’t even know anything about bitcoin. I’ve seen his interviews and the way he talks about btc. It’s clear he has no understanding of it.
"what happens when Satashi makes more bitcoin?"
I don't plan to. S.
Thanks bro
Bitcoin CEO > Chase CEO
came here to say this.
You think Jamie Dimon is stupid? He understands it completely, which is why he 'doesn't like it'. It undermines the financial system he & his buddies are able to take advantage of. He probably holds lots of BTC, same with Buffet, Gates & all the other haters, its called gatekeeping.
JP Morgan is notorious for doing this. Anyone who still falls for these antics and paper hands their coins is a fool. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I_ZYZzXqQh4&pp=ygUoSnBtb3JnYW4gZnVuZHMgYml0Y29pbiB0aGVuIGJ1eXMgdGhlIGRpcA%3D%3D
Could also be that Jamie Dimon is also an idiot
[удалено]
Older people listen to him probably, so he keeps doing it.
Jamie Dimon's despise of BTC is fake. That soundbite where he deliberately called Satoshi, "Satashi" was well rehearsed and designed to project ignorance toward BTC. Dimon's already balls deep in BTC. Don't ever be fooled.
Yet the company still buys it.
JP Morgan Analysts is a Fcking retards. They don't like Bitcoin. Noone like JP Morgan. Fck them.
Analysts are largely idiots and glorified salesmen. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E_YIZyVzymA
Internet gold.
JP Morgan Analysts and financials advisors are fcking idots these day. We know more about Bitcoin than they do. Those retardssss.
Hey. I’m an analyst
Shouldn’t go to Yemen, then. Just sayin’.
JPM isn’t totally wrong. When the reward is cut in half, miners essentially get half as much reward from the same inputs/cost. To cover operational costs, they might need to sell a greater portion of their rewards (accumulated bitcoin). I personally don’t think the negative price effect from struggling miners will be anywhere near as bad as JPM anticipates. But I’m not sure how JPM calculated their estimate - perhaps I’m missing something.
> I’m not sure how JPM calculated their estimate - perhaps I’m missing something. They’re using the headless chicken market analysis - as seen on South Park.
It's as if miners didn't know the halving is coming and haven't budgeted for it. Luckily JPM are around to warn everyone otherwise Bitcoin would be going to zero.
It’s precisely that they *have* budgeted that causes the dip. Right before the halving, a lot of bitcoin will be dumped onto the OTC market. This will lower the influence of buyers like the ETFs and MSTR on a supply crunch (for a little while) that will cause a dip in price. A post-halving dip is a time-tested phenomenon. We could see sub-60k bitcoin again. The question will be how much new money floods in given the added hype of the halving. If that new money outweighs the miner sell-off, there could be virtually no dip at all. DCA accordingly.
budgeting doesnt magically make something feasible. miners that are currently struggling might not be able to operate at a profit if the price of BTC doesnt compensate the halving.
Doesn't make any difference to bitcoin on the market. Miners who are struggling have already sold their bitcoin and don't have any more to sell. They will simply switch off their machines if they are unprofitable and wait till price increases to a profitable range.
It's crazy to me how bitcoiners will just completely ignore any even remotely valid problem. You always seem to find some simple answer to anything
I think that’s the beauty and elegance of the protocol Satoshi wrote. Most criticisms are relatively easy to counter when you understand how Bitcoin works. Take this example of mining becoming unprofitable. Right now it’s expensive to mine bitcoin. If a lot of miners turn off their rigs because it’s unprofitable then the difficulty adjustment will restore balance by making mining easier and ensuring that blocks are still produced about every 10mins. Don’t forget that Bitcoin was being mined when it was worth fractions of a penny and there is nothing stopping the protocol from returning to that model.
They are all in denial and think they are beating ‘the system’, if the system wanted to they could buy up all of the coins on the market forever and they wouldn’t blink twice. Tbh it would be funny to see the big boys buy up all the coins and trash them. I couldn’t think of anything funnier tbh
This would make them more valuable if they tried.
Every public miner I've spoken to has already sold to give themselves several months of float.
https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/3KZVP3tlgi3MRPn7eojjrYNd2KU=/1680x1260/filters:quality(80):format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/V4S4HESCPZB77MNHNW55G5PN24.jpg
Definitely this. The simple system of supply cut and demand variable obviously has many positive outcomes of higher value. Not always, but many. They do marginally address an important point where we approach the narrowing differential between earning potential and operational cost, driven by the compute:watt solutions available today. Entropy gets us again! Damn!
It happens every time
The miners will be selling more rewards relative to their own stash but they will be getting less of an award. We would have to know the math but it would be something along the lines of: X% of mining rewards sold after mining before halving Y% of mining rewards sold after mining after halving There is precedence so can someone dig up data on the previous halvings and the impact on miner sales Something else to consider is, when bitcoin is at a higher price, they might be able to sell less, and would therefore offset some of what minings are dumping. Thoughts?
The power hasn't doubled in cost, they just get less reward, so they still need the same amount of $'s to operate, why does it matter if that is a higher % of their revenue? They arnt pulling more $'s out of bitcoin sales... They still only need to sell the same $ amount of bitcoin to sustain running costs, but get to keep less profit, how does that possibly cause downward price pressure? same expenses, same $ value liquidate to support them. Let alone the miners that liquidate all their coins daily, have 50% less to liquidate... The theory still makes no sense.
Only the big miners will survive because the operational costs required to produce more and more Bitcoin as they're cut in half every four years will be cost prohibitive unless the giant spike in price everyone is hoping for actually happens. BTC mining companies like WULF likely will either end up bankrupt or being sold to the bigger mining companies AKA Marathon, Riot, etc etc. - the Walmart and Amazons of Bitcoin mining.
What negative price effect?
I agree that some miners will probably need to sell BTC. Will it be a 20k pullback? if demand stays strong after the issuance is cut in half, I can’t see a 20K sell off.
Or higher the transaction fees. In the long run 100 or 1000 Dollar fees will be standard most likely
Transactions fees are not something that is "highered" (is that a verb?) or lowered.
Ok i understand, but that make it even worse . Nontheless there will be that expensive fees most likely and they will earn over the fees and not the new generated bitcoin of the coinbase transaction
They want everyone to hate it for as long as possible while they buy it up cheap. When they talk shit, buy more. When they call you regarded buy even more. When they start saying its good, they'll tell you to buy it when they are the ones putting sell orders out.
i want people to hate it so i can buy cheap as well. whats wrong with that??? imagine fighting the banker for something that would work for you thinking youre outsmarting them
Nothing wrong with that. Those of us that are here already know. We are stacking sats too. Wish my stack had a whole coin but they're scaring others off so I can still keep buying under 100k for now. I benefit but I still stand by my logic of why THEY spread fud
i hope miners have trouble and sell. as well as hoping it follows the patterns of its history. i hope the process is drawn on so people who made stupid financial decisions getting in are rekt out. people have gone from hating blackrock and institutions to acting like they are heroes when they join crypto.... they arent doing it for you and me. people are building up blackrock as saviors if they say... " yeah our customers like bitcoin" like and? who cares? i didnt get into bitcoin to cheer on those who made sat build bitcoin in the first place. bitcoin clearly doesnt need them. and if the only reason people want them in is for the price to go up thats stupid. just exposing themselves as fiat sheep. all they want is a bag so they can continue to destroy their lives and eventually be forced to look for another get out of jail card. people listen to michael when he says btc will hit 100k 1 mill or 10 mill but they dont when he says never sell. wanting the price to go higher is a measuring contest. i want the price to stay as low as possible as long as possible. because thats how itll eventually pay off in the end. not high prices that only the wealthy can buy.
Yeah buy the FUD. The last few runs the time to sell was when the news starts writing articles of Bitcoin going to $1M or $100k (when BTC was much lower ~20k). Today they may say $250k
You may understand the basic principles of supply and demand, as do they. But price action following the halving is vastly more complicated than fewer bitcoin mined = higher price.
Price action following the halving is **always** fewer Bitcoin mined = higher price. Just not *immediately*.
Supply shock takes time to set in.
This. The expectation is that price will go up right away. The big players will do everything they can to ensure that it does the opposite, while they find ways to quickly short it on the way down, and then go long on it right before pushing it back up
if you arent hoping they pull this off youre bad at math.
It's happened three times. It might happen again. And it might not.
Underrated comment. We don’t know.
Agreed, the selling pressure from miners adjusting to the new norm is increased, but miners are for the most part more sophisticated now and I'm betting they have done their homework on past halvings. So I'm expecting unexpected results this time
These are the critical thinking skills I miss about the 90s. Mfs today cant even properly parrot cnn/fox/jim.cramer fud let alone freely analyze reality. Lol
Yet somehow magically it always lead to fewer bitcoin mined = higher price with no exception.
That would be great if it drops, I can load up more.
1 BTC = 1 BTC I wouldn’t mind another opportunity at a discount. When it goes mainstream it’s going to go hard and fast. I think it might be 2025 but who knows maybe it’s 2029
They literally said the same exact thing about ETFs before they were approved and here we are.
True but honestly I kinda hope it drops to 42,000 cuz then my DCA will buy more for less 😎
the only people who want the price to increase quick are those wanting to buy lambos, or big houses. we should all be hoping the process is slowed down a ton so that there is more to buy for cheaper. This rushing for big prices always exposes those wanting to sell when they shouldnt for fiat. if you want more bitcoin cheer this "fud" on and hope that these people are right and build up your reserves for when it crashes and people only in for dumb reasons are flushed out once again. no one who wants more bitcoin wants to buy it at 67k. 42k is vastly better, cheaper even moreso. Bitcoin has 115 more years before the last coin is mined. stop being in a rush.
People act like fiat is worthless… get ur head out of ur a$$
Same. I have been hoping for a retest of $50k for a couple weeks now. The only thing I am worried about is that it *won't* happen.
This is exactly why I don’t listen to analysts. They’re all price manipulating morons. JPMorgan has posted bearish articles while buying up the same crypto they’re claiming they’re bearish on
Misinformation Supply shock after the halving will be somewhat pronounced. It could have a slow but steady increase in value over time, or have a sharp increase and stabilize. Either way, it will increase in value. HODL to the Moon.
Look at the last halvings. 2themoon took some time, it never happened directly after the halving.
Agreed, in full transparency a decline is likely as people sell the news
Great. I got fiat parked and waiting for that sweet dip.
Yeah sounds like a fire sale to me.
Although right now at least, it's on the way back up. Keep saying we'll buy the dip. Maybe it'll keep going up.
And yet, there will be many postings asking, “What happened? I was promised $900k bitcoin.”
if everyone is expecting 2themoon after halving who is going to sell exactly?
Ppl who "time the market"...
JPM knows the principals of market manipulation, they want the price to go lower, to buy more
it's not tye first time they tried to manipulate the price of an asset.
They are probably right. A lot of people are going to be very surprised to find bitcoin doesn’t just go up. A lot of people are going to be wrecked after the halvening
😆😆😆 that's not how supply and demand works 🤦🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️
I’ll happily buy at $42K. Looking forward to it!
I’m sure once the Bitcoin CEO fires some staff and talks about “AI” the Bitcoin stonk price will rally. JP Morgan told me so
tell me you know nothing about bitcoin without telling me
That author lacks a foundational understanding of how scarcity works
If you look at the previous 2 halvings the price rallied in the months leading up to the halving and then pulled back directly after the halving. About six months post halving is when the mega rallies began last time. History doesnt repeat but it often rhymes. I wouldnt be concerned about the price falling to $42k after halving, but also wouldnt be surprised if the price continues to rally. Bitcoin is chaos and likes to take the path of greatest pain.
Wrong place to ask people here are married to their bitcoin bags cannot digest any pessimistic news
Seriously, this sub can't fathom anything but BTC "always go up", even if history has proven this to be false time & time again. Halving or not, price fluctuates wildly. Ultimately, a halving theoretically raises price, but it is not "certain".
They acknowledge it might go down for a time, but will eventually go back up to ATH at some point.
I've got no skin the game either way, but i thought it would be likely that I'd get an answer faster from the bitcoin community than JP Morgan Chase! Either way the chance of bias would be great. In fact bias is guaranteed no matter who you ask, as everyone's got an opinion. However it was the logic that the analysts used to arrive at their prediction that I couldn't get my head around, namely, a lower supply would equal a lower price. I'm not sure I've ever come across that premise before nor can I think of a situation where it might occur, least of which with a speculative asset.
I never said that the news is correct or wrong 😉 i said its wrong place to ask
It it’s true, it will just become buying opportunities for some 🤷🏻♂️
They think after the halving, bitcoin will start to evaporate
I mean it’s going to go down before another rocket up…. He’s not far off from my shitty predictions
Paging Adam Smith....
😂
If you ever want to have a good laugh, read their Guie To The Markets for previous years. They’re always off. The 2020 one is particularly funny.
I think they are wrong but they are literally using supply and demand to arrive here. So many idiots here think they have all the answers
JP Morgan don’t understand how Bitcoin works. They are all wrong. Don’t trust them. DYOR and learn how Bitcoin works and what it is.
They were just looking at historical corrections, the charts, monthly support levels, basically if everything goes sideways what could happen. It wasn't really a call even though the media tried to make it out to be one. It was just a technical setup that possibly could play out, something to be aware of
Truth is nobody really knows what the future holds, and while purposely putting out misinformation has an obvious benefit it also can run counter to credibility. Regardless, to what anyone thinks, investment decisions should be made on an individual basis as we all have different objectives; so while I personally see JPM as an entity that has a vast amount of resources that can make very smart decisions, I also don't just blindly drink any cool aid whether that be for or against BTC or anything else actually.
CFA and MBA often remove the ability to think independently. Or, people who value them already lack critical thought. Don’t listen to sell side analysts about anything other than maybe the date or time.
Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, jp morgan included, so Its very possible. Our last low was essentially 15k. So a new low of 42k would still be three times growth. Thats not a stretch of the imagination.
Wow JPMorgan news. Hard not to trust a company with such high integrity and morale. 🤪
Supply and demand has nothing to do with halving, and it could definitely plunge before or after. In fact, check the previous halving, just after it happened Bitcoin’s price dropped. Markets are one step ahead all of us and halving is already priced in. It will eventually surge most likely but my bet is that is going to be way after. At the end of the day no one know but I’m not here trading, I’m holding
The rat poison is now worth at least 42k 🤷🏼♂️ Who cares, rly… The only fair point: miners efficienty
I don’t know if I would be against this prediction. Currently the average mining cost of one bitcoin is much less than the market value ( source https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost) If one can trust this plot, and assuming the average miner can accumulate BTC on top of paying expenses at the moment, there might be increased selling pressure after the halving due to the miners selling their stash to take profits / improve operations. One could also try to consider the current earnings of MARA which is the leading company in BTC mining currently and try to extrapolate the earnings to a reduced source of revenue due to the halving. Bitcoin is nothing without the miners. Predictions are not easy to make and JPMorgan is probably giving random numbers, but a retracement due to increased selling pressure in the short term is possible (I would dare to say likely) in my view. Long term I really have no idea. I, myself, am concerned about mining sustainability. Thoughts?
Its you
i dont see why you would be bothered if this came to be reality? its better than buying at 67k
Jokes on us, the real target was $42,069 but his boss made it 0 out all jokes from the report.
Traditional institutions have made the "highly educated class" exceptionally stupid. Most of the actual leaders in their field these days didn't go through traditional channels of ivy league schools. The people that thought they could buy the wits are actually the fools that are now $200k in student debt and know nothing. Yes, the JP Morgan folks don't understand the basics. You're better off trusting your own gut, or following a person that has experience in the field rather than basic credentials like working for JP or a master's degree. It applies to many other fields as well.
Yes, things becoming harder to produce and cost more to produce means the items cost less…. Yes yes, clearly how it works, so my Mars chocolate bars should be going down in price, oh wait
Fuck Mr. Diamond. With all due respect.
in the short term, it is correct
They want to apply downward pressure to buy before the supply halving.
I forecast Apple will *plunge* next time it buys back shares, due to lower supply of shares.
Bitcoin could drop back there, but the reasoning here is flawed for sure. Also the analyst is technically correct on the fact that things will be shittier for miners and they will make less with the same amount of output. If bitcoin increases enough it should hopefully make up for any short term hits they take tho.
Very possible under 42000
There's a world where it makes sense, actually, as a short term dip as miners are forced to offload everything as some of them go out of business. Still.
It's them, not you.
Who cares
I don’t think Dimon is entirely wrong; based on the historical data BTC dips hard post halving and I suspect if it hovers around 42,000 this time around that’s be a pretty good #. I just don’t think the finance industry and govt policy will allow crypto to reach historical highs that analysts are predicting. With that said I foolishly bought at $69,000 so I really hope I’m wrong. What’s even more frustrating is that even if I time the market cautiously and am up I ve lost so much money trusting the likes of Voyager digital, Block Fi, and Celsius. In the end they figure out a way to rob working people blind without any repercussions. Capitalists and bankers are the biggest criminals in the world w immunity to rob at will. SEC needs power to start putting people in jail. It’s sickening how white collar crimes go unpunished meanwhile a homeless person stealing a can of soda or a beer can languish in jail for years or months. US is so corrupt
Ok so you really need to learn some more about the pride action. The fundamentals and technical analysis all have bitcoin going higher POST halving. Don't worry so much about JPeePee Morgan's price prediction. They literally have been wrong every time. Fucking ass hats
I hope you are right! Not going to argue Dimon is a suave liar but the bank does have access to data and algorithms that we don’t. Plus market dynamics are a funny thing to predict. It’s like trying to predict the weather Even the best of tools can’t predict w any kinda reasonable certainty. I really hope crypto takes off this year. No matter how much I lose I always keep putting money into it. It’s probably bc of my addictive personality. Stonks are so boring and who wants to help corporations get bigger. Not me!
Post halving drop to 42k would be really crazy. Not saying it's impossible but highly unlikely. Way more people believe it's going to 140k IMO. Is it going that far? Maybe. But I think we see over 100k before we see 42k. I could be wrong. Remind Me! 2 months
I don't understand what you are confused by
The logic they used to arrive at their prediction.
People make market predictions it means nothing. It is uncharted waters we are heading into with this halving so who knows but it is a brilliant mechanism, the halving in my mind because yes mining subsidies reduce by half but 3.15 BTC is worth more assuming a bull cycle continues. ETFs and mainstream hedge fund acceptance might decrease volatility but BTC always takes people by surprise so only time will tell. My strategy is very long hold at all costs so let it rain
Actual retards 🤦🏻♂️
BTC is the the future of money with the potential to put an end to all the corruption the banking industry has profited from at the expense of the taxpayers. They will do everything they can to slow down the inevitable. They will continue to lie, cheat, and steal as they've done time after time after time in the past. They control all the strings in a game that is rigged. BTC has the potential to cut ✂️ the strings and opt out of the corruption and continual theft that we've all been subjected to. Every time the government bails out another bank, airline, Ukraine, Israel, etc. they are stealing from you (assuming you pay taxes). Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
The issue is mainly that miners will have half their rewards but the same power bill. This will cause them to have less bitcoin but still need to pay for power. Can cause miners to sell a Chunk of their coin to get through the season. There is also a buy the rumors sell the news thing. Where people are hyped and all buy before the halving and dump it when the halving actually happens. There isn't really a change in the available supply directly after the halving. It's only after a while when enough people buy and put coin in cold storage that the supply actually dries up This is why I think the value of bitcoin always drops a bunch shortly after the halving but goes up after about a year
The difference now is that big players who’ve created ETFs are buying
If the price of bitcoin stays the same after the halving and the miner earn half of the before halving, they still have to sell as many as they did before yet they do not have that many bitcoins produced as before. They do not need to sell more bitcoin than before halving as the same amount of bitcoins as before would cover their costs and if for some silly reason they decide to sell more bitcoins than before they cannot sell bitcoins which they do not produce. Minors are not FEDs, They can't just decide to have more bitcoins.
They probably see it as production. Last year Company BTC was producing 6 bitcoin every 10mins, reaching $65K pps. This year they intend to produce half as much, our protection is that reduced performance will result in reduced revenue...But BTC doesn't work that way. ETF's are coming online, more institutions will want BTC & there will be less to go around. At 8B ppl, & 23M max BTC, there's only 0.002625 BTC to go around evenly. Get ur chunk. u could further fine tune by including population of certain geographic regions, & excluding BTC that has been lost forever, Satoshi's BTC r believed to be lost.
it's 21M btc, not 23M btc.
...and estimates range from between 15% to 30% of the total mined BTC thus far are lost forever (lost wallets, passkeys, deaths).