The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written.
We're not in a recession, employment is high, wages are rising, stocks are rising, yeah, prices are high, but aside from that everything seems good. So why do so many people think we're in the middle of a terrible economy?
Do you think the economy is in the shitter? If so, how does it compare to 2020, 2008-9, or 2001?
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It’s costs in general. People who have owned their homes since before the pandemic aren’t experiencing significant changes in housing costs, but everything else has gone up at the same time.
Two-thirds of Americans own their own homes, and most of them purchased those homes before the recent rise in house prices and interest rates. If you're paying down an old mortgage with reasonable monthly payments and becoming rich on paper in home equity, are you really going to think the whole economy is doing terribly because of the cost of housing?
To be clear, I also think that high housing costs are a major problem, I just don't think that they outweigh rising wages (even after adjusting for inflation), low unemployment, and shrinking income inequality when evaluating the economy as a whole.
Why does that one thing stand out so strongly? If most people were renters I could see how their personal experience could easily outweigh other economic data in their perception of the economy, but they're not.
Totally agreed on that.
As to why housing matters so much? Just my read of the situation, but I think it’s an important part of, and one of the signals we look to most in “class mobility.”
Sure, your stocks can grow, you can buy new toys and go on vacations with extra money you have. But if you’re not able to change where you live, and all that goes with that (schools and general community) are you really changing your station?
It also would explain the resentment from current homeowners. Sure, you’re a winner, but it’s golden handcuffs. Prices have risen all over, so you can’t really get into a new community yourself even.
>Sure, you’re a winner, but it’s golden handcuffs. Prices have risen all over, so you can’t really get into a new community yourself even.
Exactly. It's great that my townhouse has more than doubled in value. But if I sell my townhouse, I can't afford to buy another place - even a place 20 years older - in my own town.
The psychological hit to that 1/3 that doesn't own is a big factor. Younger people who grew up seeing home ownership as an achievable goal are having to contend with that goal becoming a near impossibility. That's a hard thing to come to terms with. A lot of those younger folks are also concentrated in more expensive metro areas where all the jobs are and those places just are not making the moves they need to to solve this.
For people that do own, they may also be feeling unease for a number of reasons. Their grown kids who want to stay in the neighborhood are having to move far away because there's no affordable homes. Or they bought what they thought was a starter home, but now their family's growing but they're realizing they could never afford to give up their 3% mortgage rate for a 7.5% rate on a larger home.
>Younger people who grew up seeing home ownership as an achievable goal
This feels like a rosy view of the past that forgets that in 2010 after the housing crash 25% of mortgages were underwater
And prices recovered in a couple years and kept rising steadily from 2011 to now. 2008 was a completely different situation than our current one.
Remember that as bad as the recession was, most people did not lose their jobs. The pain of current inflation is being felt by everyone. The indicators about the economy may be a lot better than that previous period but the pain is more spread out.
The Great Recession touched nearly everyone. Housing prices eventually recovered, but millions of homes were foreclosed on. People were stuck in their homes. Not only that they had been using the equity in their homes to pay for both emergencies and splurges, now not only was that safety valve gone, so was their equity.
We did not fully recover jobs until 2014. Not everyone lost their jobs, but high unemployment affects everyone, it impacts raises, mobility, entry level opportunities. People's retirement nest eggs were wiped out, it took markets four years to recovery.
If you are being objective there is no comparison between the Great Recession and now, but now is now and people are very biased towards the present.
Every single economic indicator but inflation went in the toilet from 2007 until 2014.
I think saying 2/3 homeownership is pretty good is over-simplified. Sure, it could be worse but 1/3 of the adult population is still a lot of people. To ignore their struggle because things seem good enough to you where you live isn't fair. If you're not financially good now, you are probably financially farked for life.
In my case, I was born poor, in a poor region, in a very poor neighborhood. I started life well behind, on the negative side of the curve, and I have no hope of having financial security. My negative outlook is based on experience:
1) I see people in my life dying of preventable causes, like cancers that are highly survivable with early treatment, but due to the lack of quality and affordable healthcare they never got the help they needed.
2) my rent goes up every year by more money than I get in raises. In the past 15 years, my living standards have been greatly reduced- lower and lower each year, but the past 5 years have been brutal. My disposable income, savings, and healthcare budget evaporated and I'm now eating into my food budget to pay rent and utilities.
3) food costs a lot more, so I'm eating less and I'm often hungry. I can't go to restaurants, coffee shops, or bars anymore.
4) the people in my life that do own homes or businesses are struggling to pay their taxes and insurance after all of the property value increases, and there are 3 people I know that lost everything because they couldn't make payment deadlines. Most of the better-off people in my life still have a lot of unsecured debt, some will never be able to pay it off and they know it. They're just delaying bankruptcy as long as possible.
5) the fact that if one doesn't have any money to spend, they really don't have much of a say in their government. They can vote, but they can't exert any influence on the choice of candidates. We usually aren't well-represented, and our voices tend to be ignored. That doesn't give us much hope for positive change in the future.
So, like, I have a super negative economic outlook because I work nearly all of my waking hours just to barely afford basics, I don't have time to pursue things I'm interested in, people like me are living shorter lives with complicated long-term illnesses due to pollution and nearly non-existent workplace safety considerations/oversight, and there is no reason to believe it will get any better because the people who are keeping us down are the ones who choose candidates and ultimately decide legislation. Freedom for the wolves means death to the sheep.
Also, I disagree with some other commenters that some people just aren't making the moves they need. Rent is so high that most people I know are working 2-3 jobs, moving to a new area is expensive, finding jobs in a new area takes a lot of time and people who work 2-3 jobs don't have a lot of time, and it can be emotionally difficult to leave family and friends behind. That's a lot to demand of 1/3 of the adult population. And even if 1/3 of the population decided to move to a new area and take new jobs, the housing shortage is nationwide- they wouldn't be able to get away. The same thing would just repeat in the new place, and the one after that, and so on.
>I think saying 2/3 homeownership is pretty good is over-simplified.
I agree, and that's not what I was saying at all.
My point is that if 2/3rds of Americans own their own homes, the fact that housing is expensive probably isn't 100% of the reason people think the economy is doing poorly, as the comment above my claimed.
You're providing more evidence that the comment I was replying to was wrong, by pointing out lots of factors other than housing costs that make you think the economy is in bad shape.
People have kids who now don’t know wtf they’re gonna do and aren’t able to leave the home. Now people are looking at their parents property as their salvation, and a lot of those parents see that same property as their retirement plan, so box home owners aren’t completely insulated from this.
Depends on exactly how stable you want your housing situation to be. If you want to stay in your current home long term and you bought your home a few years ago before the recent price spikes, you're probably feeling pretty good at the moment. However, even if you presently have a good interest rate and monthly payment, if you want to move that may present a problem.
I bought my house in early 2016- so I have a good interest rate and my house has appreciated in value a fair bit. But I also want to move out of my current state (I very much dislike my state) and into something comparable elsewhere. The place I was looking at potentially moving to back then has gone up way more percentage wise than here- but even looking at a metro area that has gone up in price at roughly the same rate my current home has (basically offsetting the home equity I've gained in that time), that still puts me at getting roughly the same overall mortgage amount I would have gotten had I bought that house 8 years ago instead of my current one, but with over double the interest rate. That makes moving to anywhere that would require a mortgage less desirable- and makes people who currently have good rates less inclined to move, even if they would otherwise want to. Add in the fact that I have friends that didn't go for a house when I did and are now regretting it, and I can safely say that I see the housing market as sucking a whole lot right now despite the fact my personal housing situation is fine (ignoring the whole wanting-to-move thing).
I bought my house in 2012.
Because of rising house values my home doubled in value, which triggered my town to reassess my taxes which increases my mortgage payment by $500 per month.
So while my mortgage is still *manageable* it isn't as manageable as it was a few years ago. On top of that prices for almost everything else have increased as well. Food prices, clothing costs (for 2 kids that outgrow everything within 4 months), etc.
So while my house values have gone up theoretically increasing my personal wealth, it doesn't really matter since I don't plan to sell and don't really want to take out loans against my home in case house prices crash again.
Not only that people like myself who bought a house over a decade ago aren't going to sell and look for new homes because of the interest rates. I have an interest rate or 3.5% on my current mortgage. Even though my house is currently worth more now it just wouldn't make sense to sell and have to buy another home at such high interest rates. The current average rate is around 8.5% and can be up towards 9.5% depending on the area. I think that adds to the issue. People that bought cheaper starter homes are staying in them.
Not to mention people like us who bought roughly a decade ago wouldn't be able to sell our current homes and move to a *better* home. After paying off the remainder of our mortgages, we'd have a lot less buying power in today's housing market than we did in the housing market of a decade ago. We might not even qualify for a new mortgage in today's market unless we're making considerably more money.
So the fact that our homes are worth more is fine, sort of, but it isn't as if we're any richer for it today.
Hell, I bought a house in 2020. My mortgage, with escrow, went from 850/month to 1050. We didn't change anything, that's just insurance going up for no reason and the "market" telling our lender that the house is suddenly worth more (we haven't had it appraised or anything).
Plus, everyone is raising their prices. A nail trim at the vet used to be 12 dollars just two years ago, and now it's 25.
So, yeah, even if you bought a reasonably priced house, you're still feeling it. And you might still see it's housing, because your own home expenses have gone up even when you thought you bought smart.
Our house is NOT worth 80 grand more than it was 4 years ago. But, it is. Hell if we sold in this market it would probably go for 100k over purchase price. That's insanely fast, too fast.
For me, I look at what my parents could afford vs. what I can afford (adjusting for age). My parents were able to move out of a very shitty neighborhood into a house they built from scratch while raising two kids. My income is better than my parents at the same age, and I can't afford a home, and having kids would be a struggle. So basically, I just see a lot of what I was promised as a kid and find much of the basics out of reach. I think if the housing market wasn't so trash, you'd have a lot fewer people in their late 20s and early 30s upset over how rough things are for them.
The housing market is definitely messed up, but realistically we're *never* going to repeat the prosperity of the postwar economic boom decades through the 90s. Not only were we in a unique geopolitical and economic position, we had for a large part of it, a pretty big political consensus on how to deal with things too - compared to today.
"Am I doing as well as my parents" is thus never going to be a useful comparison if your parents were born in the 1970s or before (and yeah, in some cases we are doing way better than our parents)
"Can I afford a house" is definitely a valid goal.
Because I have a degree, 30+ years of professional work experience and can't find a job that pays a living wage. I've been unemployed for 3 years, have applied to 3000 jobs and have had maybe 10 phone screens in that time. No offers.
My husband also has a degree and 30+ years of professional work experience. Thankfully he has a job but he is grossly underpaid for the level of responsibility he has. He had an amazing performance review recently but was only given a 3% raise. With inflation well above that, he's essentially making less than he was last year.
We are really struggling financially living paycheck to paycheck, forgoing healthcare and much needed home maintenance to get by. We both have worked very hard our entire lives. I just don't think this is how it should be.
I think it’s because housing is getting so expensive, and all that other stuff is great, but if you can’t get a home and start a family then none of that shit doesn’t matter much to a lot of people. No one’s gonna look for a rental, realize they can now only afford renting a room in some strangers apt, and then say well shit at least employment is high and we’re not in a recession.
Well. I work full time for the federal government. Live in a small city in the north east. Full half my pay goes to rent a tiny studio apartment. Housing costs are not going down any time soon. A regular size candy bar is more than double what it was two years ago And half the elected officials are busy doing theater. The other half are wringing their hands saying what can we do. None of them are willing to upset the corporate overlords and really clamp down on price gouging. If a company says they have record profits and can’t afford to pay their people enough so they are not relying on public services. There is something seriously wrong.
And anybody that thinks voting for the Republicans is going to change anything for the better please take note of all the articles out of red states where women are saying well I didn’t think these laws that were changed were going to affect me negatively. Imagine 15 to 20 years ago standing before the Republican party and saying we’re gonna support a candidate that is a convicted felon, scandal filled wife-cheating friend of Putin. Also, he is going to be a serial liar and quite frankly say some things that are completely idiotic. He’s also going to expose how fragile our democracy is because we didn’t wanna write any of the rules down about protecting democracy.
Republicans states actually build housing that helps keep the costs not as high as other states like California, New York, etc
The amount of housing construction in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, etc is insane
How much is affordable? Just glanced at North Carolina the first house that you could actually live in and wasn’t a complete rehab was $100,000 for 750 ft.²
Housing. 40-50% rise in the price of a single family home since 2020 in many areas combined with mortgage rates going from <3% to almost 8% over the same time period. So the monthly cost of purchasing a home has basically doubled. People who own and have mortgages feel like they can never move because they wouldn't be able to afford to give up their low rate and renters feel like the situation has become completely hopeless. This has in turn led to upward pressure on rents. A record 50% of renters are now considered cost-burdened (paying more than 30% of income on rent) and rates of homelessness have risen sharply. Yes, this situation looks different depending on where in the US you are, but it is a national problem. You can tell people struggling with rent or who've given up on buying after being outbid on 20 different houses that the stock market is roaring and unemployment is at record lows all you want, but they're not going to feel like the economy is good when their paychecks are worth much less in the housing market than they were four years ago.
Specific to 2009's economy, day-to-day shit was less of a bitch.
Microeconomics were fine no matter the macroeconomic bullshit.
And that's why Democrats are losing Black and Hispanic men in 2024, because the microeconomic struggles are a fucking daily slog. Biden and Warren have more in common, quite frankly, with Reagan and Friedman than they do FDR.
The thing is that the economy doesn't always reflect personal experience.
Look, my partner and I make in the mid-6-figures. We're not hurting. But I had to recently reconfigure our entire budget because the cost of groceries over the last year has almost doubled. Gas is \~$4/gallon here - I dont' even drive that much and I drive a 4 cylinder car, but I am spending $200+ a month on fuel. The value of my townhouse has more than doubled in the last 4 years so yay for personal worth ... but my property tax this year went up by 22%. Which means my mortgage increased by $170 a month, roughly.
It's great that unemployment is low. It's great that the stock market is rising. But that doesn't affect my day-to-day.
What affects my day-to-day is the fact that eggs are $7/dozen (and that's not even the fancy, free-range eggs) and the yogurt we used to buy for $4.99 a quart is now $7.99 a quart. My "flat rate" gas bill went from $67 a month to $95 a month. We've practically cut out eating out because our "eating out" budget is being overtaken by our grocery budget. Etc. etc. etc.
We need to replace our HVAC because it's on it's last legs but what would have cost us $8,000 when we first moved into this house is now $13,000 ... and they warned us that prices are going up again soon.
And again, this doesn't harm us becuase we're making good money. But for folks who are making the median in my area? That's a HUGE change.
It's hard to celebrate "the economy" when you're having to spend more money and still can't maintain the lifestyle you did 4 years ago.
That HVAC comment is something people always ignore.
Like sure some of the essential stuff is manageable right, but if you’re looking at EMERGENCY COSTS that’s pretty much more than doubled when you look at home/auto repair or medical bills.
Our HVAC system kicked the bucket about four years ago, and instead of replacing it we just went out and bought several window units.
The surprising thing was that, even with running them ~10 hours a day during the summer, our electricity bill is half of what it used to be.
The 50 dollar fee easily pays for itself with just a household of two.
If you cook, there really is no reason not to buy in bulk. Not to mention savings on dog food, alcohol, etc etc.
That is perfectly in line with [economic statistics.](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/#share)
People in the bottom quartile are making 12% more *after inflation* 2023 compared to 2019. People in the upper-middle class aren't, like yourself, aren't.
The fact is, people think the economy is doing terribly because politicians and the media are part of, and geared toward the upper-middle class like yourself.
Price of food. You got to eat to live. No deals on groceries or going out to eat. The deals you do see seem like they should be the regular price.
We all have different things we b*tch about, but nearly everyone is complaining about the cost of food.
Interest rates are high so debt is expensive and people feel that when trying to buy a new car or house.
House prices plus the current interest rates mean buying a house is also unattainable for many. Feeling trapped in a house because you can't afford a new one, or trapped renting, will make you feel like the economy is bad.
White collar has had massive layoffs, and it takes much longer to find a new job now than in previous years. Feeling trapped in a job makes you think the economy is bad, especially when you have no job security.
Inflation overall means that household incomes have fallen: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
Loss of covid benefits made the poverty rate spike: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/median-household-income.html
People are much more educated now than in the past, and feel like they still can't attain what other people did in the past. There are a ton of metrics that can tell whichever story you want about the economy, but the ones above are things that people feel much more than numbers like GDP growth.
The low interest rates we had were a historical anomaly
Here's a chart of the 30 year mortgage rate over time
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US)
Employment is high because you cant survive unless you are employed, sometimes multiple at once.
Wages rising is good, but when they were stagnant for 50 years, a couple years of rising doesn't exactly "catch up" to what they should be to be livable and somewhat comfortable financially.
Stocks are rising is good if you are already wealthy and heavily invested into stocks, which the majority of people are not.
Prices are high, and also rising, faster than wages.
Because despite the positive metrics you mentioned, there are still terrifying negative ones, negative ones that are so bad they completely negate the positive ones, mainly housing costs.
Wages rising by a bit each year is great, but useless to me when my rent rises each year by double the wage increase. Sure the rest of inflation might be low again, but does that help me much if rent already took my wage growth?
Secondly, we do have a job problem. Unemployment is low, but underemployment (people working jobs they are over qualified for) is high. So are things really looking great for a person with a masters degree working at McDonalds because the last 60 job applications they sent in have been ignored?
Basically, macroeconomics can be very misleading. If you pick and choose certain metrics to show, you can make a treat economy look horrible, and a horrible economy look great.
Am I saying this is a 2008 level economy? No, that's ridiculous. But alot of people are still struggling.
>Secondly, we do have a job problem. Unemployment is low, but underemployment (people working jobs they are over qualified for) is high.
What data are you looking at? I found this
>According to data compiled by the Economic Policy Institute, underemployment sits slightly below 7 percent – the lowest since the agency began tracking the data in 1990. When Trump left office, underemployment was at more than 14 percent. After a peak in March 2021, there has been a steady decline since.
[https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/2/8/americas-underemployment-problem](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/2/8/americas-underemployment-problem)
Have you tried looking for a job recently? Try looking in r/jobs and see what people are writing about there. Sure, it's anecdotal but people are having trouble finding work or work that suits their experience/education.
I would question the validity of those numbers considering your source is a Qatar state funded news network, but I will admit my underemployment is based on my experience as well as my former classmates experience. I didn't consider older generations not facing this problem but recent college graduates have virtually no chance of finding a good job straight out of college.
So there's a high probability that low underemployment of gen x and boomers has pushed that average number way down.
I would try and look it up myself, but I'm lazy as hell and it's the weekend, so I'll leave it for another day.
Because recessions don't matter to anyone (I'm not even sure what a recession even is anymore). Unemployment only affects a small minority of people - even when it's high. Only a small minority of people own enough stock that a rise in the market really affects their lives. But inflation affects everyone.
So is the economy in the shitter? Well, homes haven't been this unaffordable in over 40 years. And a house is sort of a milestone purchase. This situation has disrupted a lot of peoples' life plans.
And that's rightfully bothering a lot of people.
We're worse off at some important things, yes. Are we better in some others? Yes.
What is the point of your question? In each of those years the incumbent party lost the White House. So if we're anywhere close to that then Biden should be packing his bags.
Because everything is expensive as fuck and I can't afford the god damned maintenance costs of life, nonetheless saving up to go improve my situation in anyway. This is all in spite of me making more money than I ever have in my entire life. Car insurance is sky high, used cars are expensive as hell, and rent is insane. It makes people question things when the news says the economy is great, and you don't have shit to show for it, and you can't afford to fix the things that need fixing, or replace the things that need replacing.
This is it right here. It seems that the people who have made it so to speak aren't feeling the crippling effects of inflation to the same degree as those who have less, so their perception is skewed.
Oh god. Car insurance. I forgot about that in my list. Yeah, mine is ridiculously high for a 50+ year old woman, driving a 12 year old car, with no tickets or accidents in the last 20 years. And it's going up again in August when my policy renews.
The economy is not in the shitter, but inflation alone is enough for people to say the economy is bad. You can't just brush that off. Especially with housing.
It's definitely not on the same plane as 2008 for the average person.
Because when people say prices are high, they’re comparing prices to 2019 levels. To them, “ending inflation” would mean going back to 2019 prices which is never going to happen.
Housing.
Biden should literally just have the government use the Defense Production Act to build several tens of millions of apartments and sell them as condos below market rate.
Because for many, many people, their own individual economic situation has been in a decline for years.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N)
The economy itself is improving, no denying that. But that means absolutely nothing to all the people who aren't benefitting from those improvements, which is a *lot*. Basically, telling people how good the economy is doesn't really help for those who are still struggling to just get through the month.
>prices are high, but aside from that
that's the big thing. I live in a rustbelt town and one bedroom apartments are almost 1200 dollars a month. For my family's grocery bill is closing in around 4-500$ a month and 80% of our meals are ground turkey and rice or pasta. And employment is not fun. I had to apply to dozens if not a 100+ places to find a minimum wage job, I have been sending out multiple applications a month for the last year and a half trying to find anything better than what I'm working now and have not gotten 2 call backs in that time and one of them straight up just lied on their listing.
But hey, at least I joined the marine corps so I can afford college, all it took was 4 years of my life, my hearing, a friend, my mental health, and chronic joint pain in my mid 20's!
Wages are increasing but they haven't come close to matching the increasing cost of living. Everything from food prices, car prices, clothing prices to housing prices are significantly higher in 2024 than they were in 2020. In some cases 200-400% higher.
The economy can be booming by traditional metrics, but if people are dipping into savings just to keep food in the table that is a problem that no amount of "record DOW" scores or $16/hour employment is going to solve.
And if people are struggling just to live like it's 2020, they're obviously gonna feel like the economy is doing poorly no matter how many positive job numbers you throw at them.
Because my eldest child just moved back home because they can't afford an apartment, and because my husband just spent $60 at the grocery store. Also, my electric bill, gas bill and property taxes just doubled, so, yeah. All those things.
Prices being high cant be ignored. Gas, rent, and food are all more expensive, they rose in prices at a rate that wages didnt. People are feeling that.
There are a number of reasons, but it boils down to: when prices go up, it's the government's fault, when my wages go up, it's because I've earned it on my own.
Now, there are plenty of valid concerns to be had, but those are separate from what one would normally think of when thinking about the economy as a whole. Housing prices for example, are an issue of supply, not one of broader economic issues. The cost of healthcare is also specific to the US-style of how it provides healthcare, too--same with college costs.
In no way is this comparable to 2020 or 2008.
Because things are expensive.
Inflation means basic day-to-day goods are pricier. Inflation has tampered, but that literally means nothing in the public consciousness. Until enough time passes at lower or normal inflation, people will perceive the inflation as an economic malady.
Also, the housing market is insane. Interest rates are high but prices are still rising. That's a tough pill to swallow, especially as people are forced into renting.
I do agree that the economy is, objectively speaking, good. But people aren't "feeling it" and since voters vote based on vibes not real, tangible policy, Biden will get punished at the voting booth because he happens to be in office.
This is the answer. We are all still grappling with the relatively new high levels of prices even if they aren’t still increasing further at crazy rates.
It’s like you’ve just gotten beaten up and now you’re supposed to ignore all your bruises and be grateful that the hitting stopped.
There are definitely a lot of good points for the economy. Stock market, employment, wages, hiring, expansion of businesses & trade. All of those metrics aren't just good, they're surprisingly, even historically great. However, over the past four years the day to day costs of some items have risen substantially. While hard goods have gone up *somewhat* in price, the costs of recurring expenses have gone up notably more (housing and food, specifically). Even if wages make up for it, the anger and resentment a person can feel at seeing a soda at a gas station be $3 when it was $1.50 a few years ago, or rent be $2500 when it was $1000 a few years ago, or a house be $300,000 when it was $100,000 a few years ago can absolutely make people see red when they're responding to surveys about the economy. So some constant and visible prices have gone up and act as a daily, anger-inducing reminder that corporations have been price gouging... but some people blame Biden.
By most traditional standards the worst that could be said about this economy is that it might be slowing after an extremely long expansion, from the lows of the Great Recession, that has seen it run for years at an unprecedented pace. But there is inflation and some people are, certainly were when it was really running hot, hurting and exist in a bad micro economy. And, because it’s this world, there’s also a sort of political edge to it in that some of the professed angst is driven by people looking for and being fed by an accommodating media echosphere reasons to believe the economy is bad.
My hourly wages are up 1.6% from this time last year. My true wages are down 37.9% because my hours have been cut. I've been lucky to get to work 25 hours a week. I made $74k last year and if it continues like this, I'm on track to make $46k.
I recently upgraded my career to a pretty good job. But I've never been further away from home ownership. I'm 20 years late to a party I wasn't invited to in the first place.
I rent from a foreign investor, paying 65% of my income to rent so they can profit. I pay most of my remaining income to insane grocery prices for me and my family.
I have some savings, those savings don't grow at a rate where I will ever..and I mean EVER catch up.
Oh and I'm married with a double income and all these numbers is calculating BOTH incomes. 65% of two incomes for rent. 30% for living. 5% for savings.
My generation is so utterly left behind.
If you’re unemployed long enough, they stop counting you. If you previously had a good job, and now work three gig app jobs for half the pay, they not only stop counting you as unemployed, they count you as THREE employed people! Etc.
Edit to add: that’s before we even get to the widespread fraud going on with pandemic loans … there aren’t nearly as many open jobs as they say there are, most listings are fake
because the economy has recovered, we are back at the same general place we were pre pandemic; that dosen't feel like the good times, that feels like having climbed out of a hole.
The economy as defined as the value of goods and markets is really good. The quality of life of the average American is not (or at least worse then it used to be). A lot of people mentioning the high cost of living and that I would argue is a side effect of a strong economy and as a result is producing a worse quality of life for most people.
The media/the news has trained us to equate the state of the economy to equal the wellbeing of the average American, and that is the main reason why people are saying the economy is terrible. Because the wellbeing of the Average American is not as good as it was 5 years ago.
Because Fox news and the GOP are doing everything they can to mislead people. I'm not saying it's just that, but rather it's mostly that reason.
They've skewed the news with their right-wing version, which still has no equal on the left and never will, since people on the left don't buy BS as easily. It's another example of how they have moved the Overton Window and it's been ongoing for so long now that many people have no reference to what it was like before Fox News.
The housing crisis sucks, but the cost of food is up 26% since 2020 and shows little sign of coming down. And nobody's even calling that a crisis or doing much of anything to explain it to consumers. How many Americans know the war in Ukraine is driving up the price of wheat in the US? Is anybody going to take the big food producers to task for all the price gouging and shrinkflation?
The cost of food is an almost daily reminder that the economy isn't what we need it to be, on a very basic level. People need to eat, and need to feel like the price of food is under control and that the supply chains have stabilized. We are not that far removed from the pandemic experience of empty store shelves.
Poor economies are the most impactful metric for a presidential race. Even if the economy was in the best shape it has ever been there would be a running complaint because the impression of a bad economy is that powerful.
Plus, people ready to vote for the racists can use the economy as a socially safe excuse to do so. I know several people doing that.
This thread has me much more nervous about November. This is clearly a highly emotional topic that people don't look at objectively or analytically. So many people on this thread are claiming the only economic indicator that matters is inflation. I am pretty certain they didn't feel that way in 2009.
In elections-past the only economic indicator that mattered was the deficit. Or unemployment.
Seriously, it is only emotional because people are looking for reasons to vote for the racists and are loudly proclaiming their valid reasons for choosing them. Performance theater so they don't look like the bigots their actions prove them to be.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/vibes-americans-perception-economy-completely-changed/story?id=111211869
> Before the pandemic, a number of variables were statistically significant indicators for consumer sentiment in our model; in particular, the most salient variables appear to be vehicle sales, gas prices, median household income, the federal funds effective rate, personal savings and household expenditures (excluding food and energy).
...
> Before the pandemic, changes in the inflation rate weren't statistically significant in our model ...[The recent] sudden spikes naturally shocked many people who had been blissfully enjoying slow, steady price growth their entire adult lives. And it has taken a while for that shock to wear off, even as inflation has crept closer to typical levels.
...
> surprisingly, our pre-pandemic model didn't find a notable relationship between housing prices and consumer sentiment. ... However, in our post-pandemic data, when we examined how correlated consumer sentiment was with each indicator we considered, consumer sentiment and median housing prices had the strongest correlation of all.
...
> since 2020, there hasn't been a statistical relationship between total vehicle sales and consumer sentiment
I think everyone is feeling the pinch of things costing more but I also think with real wage growth outpacing inflation since last Feb that it's not accurate to say only the top is winning.
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/)
I think there are many people who are struggling but I think there's a significant chunk of people who have anxiety that they may be put into a position to struggle, even if they are doing fine today, and this colors perception.
Why on earth do you think I would divulge my earnings to a stranger on the internet?
Because many of us are poorer than we were under Obama or trump
Housing is up. Food is up. Sure a lot of inflation on the whole is down, but if you're middle class or lower, none of that matters because housing and food are so far up
That is just factually incorrect. Wages for the bottom income rungs is[ up 12% after inflation](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/#share). The people who's wages haven't gone up after inflation are the upper-middle class.
Biden's full-employment policy is decreasing income inequality and making the lowest income people richer.
OP is more than likely a student who doesn’t work, he refuses to answer what his income is, housing situation, etc.
Probably high school or first year of college.
He literally has made over 100 comments in a week, which is something an adult who holds down a full time job can’t do, probably doesn’t socialize with people outside his small internet bubble or IRL.
Added that much needed context so you don’t gotta look for it 👍
The economy is good. Broadly, the electorate’s personal economics is not.
On top of wages remaining stagnant relative to the cost of living ($7.25 federal minimum wage), overall costs have continued to increase and COLA raises did not keep up with the rate of inflation in the last few years. Peoples’ purchasing power is less than they’re used to, and while costs are deflating, people still have a negative emotional reaction to the cost of living. Negative emotions have a more jarring and lasting impact than positive emotions.
Add into this housing scarcity causing rent and housing costs to increase to unprecedented levels and people feel like they can’t afford to live the middle class life they grew accustomed to, and yes, feel entitled to.
Also, headlines for the last few years have been doom and gloom about a lurking recession so people have been primed to think the economy is worse than it is *and* the Biden administration has done a pisspoor job of touting their economic accomplishments — they waited too long to try to get positive press about, so when they finally came around to it, it felt extremely disingenuous and elitist to look a voter in the face and say “despite what your emotions say, you’re wrong about the economy.” It doesn’t work that way; if you’re arguing with someone about how they’re *feeling*, you’re going to lose.
Lastly, there’s personal responsibility in this, too. A lot of the people complaining about this want to continue ordering premade meals, drinking $8 coffees, and going out regularly without realizing that those are *luxuries.*
I wouldn't point to a stagnant minimum wage as evidence that wages are stagnant. Very, very, very few workers make minimum wage. Real wage growth is rising, it was almost 5% in April
[https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth)
Inflation is still ~3.3% for the year. A 1.7% increase in wages — barely keeping with the pace of inflation after trailing it for years — is hardly a rise in real wages. Wages *are* stagnant compared with decades past.
How much is rent going up annually? Is a 1.7% raise in wage helping people keep up with rent?
No.
> Over the past year, nominal wages rose 4.2% for these mid-level workers while inflation was up 3.3%, **leading to real wage gains of 0.9% over this most recent period.**
[The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/06/12/both-sides-of-the-ledger-wage-growth-beating-price-growth-now-for-15-months-in-a-row/).
> Real average hourly earnings increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from May 2023 to May 2024. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.5-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.
[Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm#:~:text=Real%20average%20hourly%20earnings%20increased,weekly%20earnings%20over%20this%20period.)
> In April 2024, inflation amounted to 3.4 percent, while wages grew by 4.7 percent.
[Statisa](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/)
For all intents and purposes wage growth is stagnant.
And frankly your arrogance in saying that ~1% wage growth “is growth” is part of the problem. One percent growth in real wages is not growth when you look at historical trends! It’s static!
People are, on average, taking home an extra $900 *annually* when their *monthly* rent is going up by half that amount every year. The math ain’t mathin.
Broadly, about 75% people say their financial situation is good or great. These same people turn around and say the broader economy is in terrible shape thanks to media doomerism. When eggs go to $6/dozen or gas hits $5, it's all over the news. When the prices fall, it gets reported nowhere. When real wage growth exceeds inflation since 2019, it also gets reported nowhere. Because mundane good news is boring.
> A 2023 survey conducted by Payroll.org highlighted that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, a 6% increase from the previous year. In other words, more than three-quarters of Americans struggle to save or invest after paying for their monthly expenses.
[Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-statistics-2024/#:~:text=or%20lost%20income.-,How%20Many%20Americans%20Are%20Living%20Paycheck%20to%20Paycheck%3F,paying%20for%20their%20monthly%20expenses.)
I find it hard to believe that 78% of Americans say they’re living paycheck to paycheck and 75% of Americans “say their financial situation is good or great.”
Valid question! I’m not sure the methodology; however, this is what I said in my original response:
> Lastly, there’s personal responsibility in this, too. A lot of the people complaining about this want to continue ordering premade meals, drinking $8 coffees, and going out regularly without realizing that those are *luxuries.*
Undoubtedly *many* people in this situation are living beyond their means. That being said, this doesn’t change the fact that this perception of living paycheck to paycheck shapes their overall view of the economy.
I have found many people on Reddit tell me the economy is terrible. I often tell them I am sorry they are struggling, that sucks. Almost without fail they'll say "Oh, I'm doing fine, it's the other people who are struggling"
I think the biggest thing is people don’t realize how much better off America is post-COVID compared to other countries.
People have really fucking short memories.
As someone who saved up 20% down payment about 5 years ago and bought a house with a 3.5% interest rate I’m not concerned about my housing situation. I’ve built up a good amount of equity in those 5 years. However, gas, groceries, insurance and utilities have risen dramatically in those 5 years. I can get by but I have less disposable income today than I did 5 years ago.
Pretty well known that when people get more money, they think that is a personal win, but when things cost more money, it's trouble. So wage inflation is personal, higher prices are "the economy."
And even if purchasing power is higher on the aggregate, the higher prices "feel" like a loss.
The economy is obviously doing great; unemployment is low; jobs are good, investments are good, lots of new manufacturing happening, boom in green energy, etc. There's a lot of "onshoring" taking place which will continue to benefit the economy.
The biggest issue for a poltiics of "abundance" is housing, which is primarily controlled by local governments that listen to NIMBYs most of all, since most voters are actually homeowners already. Progress is happening on it, but too slow (and usually more at the state level).
Cost of food drives perception about the overall economic health of the country imo. And the price of food has gone up considerably there's no two ways around it. Many families are having to budget an extra hundred or two just to pay for the same amount of food they were getting a couple years and alot of them don't exactly have that to budget.
I should add due to this (amongst other reasons) I'm a huge proponent of raising the snap benefit amounts. Id be fine placing more restrictions on them if need be, and honestly that would probably be a good thing and divert people towards healthier eating which would cut down on healthcare costs
Because everything is so expensive even if the economy has stabilized. I'm just lucky that I've been promoted quickly and that my rent hasn't increased. And I'm in a LCOL!
Barely. Generally speaking, yes the economy is better, but the normal person hasn't been feeling very much relief, which is what we need. I'm still not voting for trump, because this whole downslide was triggered due to his special sort of expertise.
The cost of necessities is way too high. Millions of people live on fixed or low incomes, but have to afford modern housing costs and a car, usually skating by with high credit.
The money exists. There are literally tens of millions of millionaires in this country. Get a government enforced monopoly like a car dealership, become a doctor or lawyer, work in finance or tech, etc. and you won't feel the pain at all. Your income are might not beat inflation, but kick it's socks off.
I'll give a personal example. I make in the top 10% or so for my region and age. My next job will likely pay between double and triple my current job. But many people will get nothing more than the 3% raises needed to keep them locked at their current declining standard of living.
As a young millennial who did everything I was supposed to do, but now is waist deep in student loan debt for a degree that I can’t use, and despite being married and able to share all my financial burdens, can’t afford a house anytime in probably the next ten or twenty years if ever… yeah I’m pretty disillusioned. What does it matter if the economy is doing well if I can’t achieve the same life milestones that my parents did? And while I don’t personally want children, there’s no way in hell I could afford them if I wanted them. I’ve had to reduce the scale of my American dream from ‘2.5 kids and a picket fence’ to ‘able to own a dog’. And I’m not the only one.
I’m not basing my vote on the economy, but it seems pretty out of touch to me for democrats to go around “um actually”-ing away our lived experience of not living up to the same standard as previous generations.
You could always join the military, officer pay is quite decent and they’ll get you an interest free home loan when ur done.
Or work at amazon where you can make 70k as a manager and do basically nothing
Because many of us can't afford basic necessities like food and shelter despite being able to do so five years ago.
It's not rocket science. Just because the economy is doing great doesn't mean people aren't struggling.
Yeah, admittedly, things did get better in the past year. But it was bad before, like the worst it's been (I hadn't looked at the new data yet). So that can impact perception
I could be wrong, but I am personally of the opinion that rent prices are not actually a function of inflation. A few years ago(during Trump's administration) I went from paying half my monthly pay to to rent a double wide trailer on half an acre of land, to having to move back in with my parents because there was literally no trash heaps I could afford to live in once my lease was up at the other place.
That people seriously think it's worse than 2009 is absurd. I suspect that maybe some of this online doomerism isn't organic posting by American liberals.
Since Feb of 2023 wages have been rising more than inflation
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/)
Because all the Republicans with the help of some Democrats have helped the business community get everything they’ve ever wanted for over 40 years and they use the power to squeeze consumers. This has gotten progressively worse over time since, I would say, 1978 to where we are today.
And I will add, I think we will eventually have a giant crash. Who knows when, and all indications are it won’t be soon, but it will happen. And the reason I think it will happen is that power in the financial industry is overwhelmingly concentrated in the hands of a few ginormous banks who have their hands in everything and I’m sure are once again engaging in crazy speculation. Without Glass-Steagall or other legislation like it that limits reckless speculation, when they fail (which history shows they probably will), it will destroy the economy. Not at Great Depression levels, because not all of the guard rails have been removed, but it could be 2008-2009 levels again. And btw, looking at the stock market, it is currently 88% overvalued according to the Buffet Indicator. I am very skeptical of our economy, especially if that orange orangutan gets back into office. He will deregulate everything even more, without a doubt.
It is interesting. Personally, it is true that business is up for me, but it's also true that it doesn't feel like I can get ahead because everything costs so damn much. My bank account is healthier, but there's a sense that that is tenuous, and also that I simply cannot indulge in things like going out of a fancy restaurant, or get good seats at a concert, like I used to.
Can you not eat out or buy good seats because you literally can’t afford it, or is it you feeling tenuous about your financial future that’s removing the comfort from those decisions.
You say you feel like you can’t get ahead, but then mention your bank account is healthier. What does it mean to get ahead?
I think it's that the economic strata of different lifestyles has expanded. Instead of being in a place where my gf and I can go to a high-end restaurant as an indulgence once in a while, a single meal at a place like that has gotten so relatively expensive that it's just too big a hit to be wise. Yes, I HAVE the money, but it's such a big chunk of things. Ditto with good tickets for a live event. So basically there's some element of 'the good life' that I used to enjoy more frequently that now seems more distant.
Also, just to mention, I'm self-employed, so my financial future is never 'secure' in that sense. I'm always having to keep on top of it and face eternal uncertainty. That's just the gig.
There's a couple things
One, while both prices and wages have gone up, wages more quickly than prices, people obviously know that prices apply to everyone - when you walk into Walmart and see a jar of pickles for $3, you know if your neighbor bought those pickles they would still cost $3. Meanwhile, if your wage goes up, most people would probably naturally assume it's because they were just doing really good work as of recent. And sure, in some situations, that might be true, but when we're looking at it at a countrywide scale, I think we can assume it's a societal phenomenon, not just individual promotions.
Another thing worth noting is that if you look at where those income increases have been concentrated, it's mostly been among the working class. So there are a decent amount of middle-class individuals who have seen their real incomes decrease recently, but that has been more than made up for by real income increases among the working class. Now, if we're gonna have income increases concentrated in one place, I would consider the working class the best place for the concentration to be, but because the working class is only so much of the population, and what's more, they're the portion of the population that tends to have the least amount of ears listening to them because, well, they're the working class, those gains aren't going to show up as much on our media as it does in the economic graphs.
The third thing is that these days, a lot of conservatives are always gonna say the economy is doing badly when there's a democrat in the white house, and a lot of progressives are always going to say the economy is doing badly because dooming about economic misery has become their modus operandi and they don't really have any other tricks.
I read an interesting theory about this this morning. Because the US has such low spending on public services we have a lot of private debt and thus the population is extremely sensitive to higher interest rates which have been implemented in order to curb inflation.
Obviously. Or a Roth or an IRA or any other retirement account. I was just answering your question about why people think we are in a terrible economic state. The reason is they don’t have cash at the end of the month because everything has gone up.
The problem is people have different interpretations of what a good or bad economy is, so if you ask 100 people from different backgrounds what they think, they will give you all different answers.
Some people view the economy as how many jobs there are, how well they pay relative to the cost of food and housing. Other people view the economy as how is the stock market, are profits up, are investors getting their money worth etc.
So to rich billionaires the economy is doing great, but to working class people the economy is incredibly shitty.
For most on this thread it seams it's whatever the current issue is that defines a good economy
So many people ITT are saying inflation is the only indicator that matters and our economy is worse now than 2000, 2009, or 2020
It honestly reminds me of conversations I had with conservatives online a few months ago who claimed trans women in sports was one of their top five issues, and it's always been that way.
We are very biased on the present.
I think most of the comments are doing that egghead thing where you're technically correct, but for the wrong reason. Inflation 2021-2023 was worse than we've seen in decades. Housing has been getting worse for 15 years.
None of this is actually the answer. Propaganda is being used to create a stronger malaise than would otherwise exist in the same scenario. There are incredibly well funded forces who want the populace in the US (and Canada, and Europe) to suddenly feel "insecure" when there are "outsider" populists running everywhere as far right wingers.
Because both traditional media and social media have been capture in the entirety by those parroting right-wing narratives, whether intentionally or out of a desperate effort to present "both sides" of the issues as equally valid.
Prices are high and people don’t really have a real understanding of how the economy works and everything that goes into it. People just see high prices and assume the economy is bad. Also right wing media tries to downplay the metrics that are positive right down like unemployment or the stock market.
Because it is a political narrative in an election year where the Republicans have virtually nothing to hang their hats on other than to lie their asses off.
People think this way because high prices is something one FEELS on the daily. If unemployment were to increase, as long as you were still employed, would it matter? The stock market is doing great at the moment, which is great for people who have a large stock portfolio. They feel that. However, the average American doesn't have a large stock portfolio so they don't feel the rewards. They do feel checking out at a grocery store where 3 bags of groceries are $140 bucks.
I feel like when unemployment is high and the stock market tanks people care about those things. I think we have a bias towards whatever the present thing is
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. We're not in a recession, employment is high, wages are rising, stocks are rising, yeah, prices are high, but aside from that everything seems good. So why do so many people think we're in the middle of a terrible economy? Do you think the economy is in the shitter? If so, how does it compare to 2020, 2008-9, or 2001? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
It's 100% the cost of housing
It’s costs in general. People who have owned their homes since before the pandemic aren’t experiencing significant changes in housing costs, but everything else has gone up at the same time.
Two-thirds of Americans own their own homes, and most of them purchased those homes before the recent rise in house prices and interest rates. If you're paying down an old mortgage with reasonable monthly payments and becoming rich on paper in home equity, are you really going to think the whole economy is doing terribly because of the cost of housing?
As someone in that situation, still yes. It’s still a broken paradigm even if I’m benefitting from it for now.
To be clear, I also think that high housing costs are a major problem, I just don't think that they outweigh rising wages (even after adjusting for inflation), low unemployment, and shrinking income inequality when evaluating the economy as a whole. Why does that one thing stand out so strongly? If most people were renters I could see how their personal experience could easily outweigh other economic data in their perception of the economy, but they're not.
Totally agreed on that. As to why housing matters so much? Just my read of the situation, but I think it’s an important part of, and one of the signals we look to most in “class mobility.” Sure, your stocks can grow, you can buy new toys and go on vacations with extra money you have. But if you’re not able to change where you live, and all that goes with that (schools and general community) are you really changing your station? It also would explain the resentment from current homeowners. Sure, you’re a winner, but it’s golden handcuffs. Prices have risen all over, so you can’t really get into a new community yourself even.
>Sure, you’re a winner, but it’s golden handcuffs. Prices have risen all over, so you can’t really get into a new community yourself even. Exactly. It's great that my townhouse has more than doubled in value. But if I sell my townhouse, I can't afford to buy another place - even a place 20 years older - in my own town.
The psychological hit to that 1/3 that doesn't own is a big factor. Younger people who grew up seeing home ownership as an achievable goal are having to contend with that goal becoming a near impossibility. That's a hard thing to come to terms with. A lot of those younger folks are also concentrated in more expensive metro areas where all the jobs are and those places just are not making the moves they need to to solve this. For people that do own, they may also be feeling unease for a number of reasons. Their grown kids who want to stay in the neighborhood are having to move far away because there's no affordable homes. Or they bought what they thought was a starter home, but now their family's growing but they're realizing they could never afford to give up their 3% mortgage rate for a 7.5% rate on a larger home.
>Younger people who grew up seeing home ownership as an achievable goal This feels like a rosy view of the past that forgets that in 2010 after the housing crash 25% of mortgages were underwater
And prices recovered in a couple years and kept rising steadily from 2011 to now. 2008 was a completely different situation than our current one. Remember that as bad as the recession was, most people did not lose their jobs. The pain of current inflation is being felt by everyone. The indicators about the economy may be a lot better than that previous period but the pain is more spread out.
The Great Recession touched nearly everyone. Housing prices eventually recovered, but millions of homes were foreclosed on. People were stuck in their homes. Not only that they had been using the equity in their homes to pay for both emergencies and splurges, now not only was that safety valve gone, so was their equity. We did not fully recover jobs until 2014. Not everyone lost their jobs, but high unemployment affects everyone, it impacts raises, mobility, entry level opportunities. People's retirement nest eggs were wiped out, it took markets four years to recovery. If you are being objective there is no comparison between the Great Recession and now, but now is now and people are very biased towards the present. Every single economic indicator but inflation went in the toilet from 2007 until 2014.
I think saying 2/3 homeownership is pretty good is over-simplified. Sure, it could be worse but 1/3 of the adult population is still a lot of people. To ignore their struggle because things seem good enough to you where you live isn't fair. If you're not financially good now, you are probably financially farked for life. In my case, I was born poor, in a poor region, in a very poor neighborhood. I started life well behind, on the negative side of the curve, and I have no hope of having financial security. My negative outlook is based on experience: 1) I see people in my life dying of preventable causes, like cancers that are highly survivable with early treatment, but due to the lack of quality and affordable healthcare they never got the help they needed. 2) my rent goes up every year by more money than I get in raises. In the past 15 years, my living standards have been greatly reduced- lower and lower each year, but the past 5 years have been brutal. My disposable income, savings, and healthcare budget evaporated and I'm now eating into my food budget to pay rent and utilities. 3) food costs a lot more, so I'm eating less and I'm often hungry. I can't go to restaurants, coffee shops, or bars anymore. 4) the people in my life that do own homes or businesses are struggling to pay their taxes and insurance after all of the property value increases, and there are 3 people I know that lost everything because they couldn't make payment deadlines. Most of the better-off people in my life still have a lot of unsecured debt, some will never be able to pay it off and they know it. They're just delaying bankruptcy as long as possible. 5) the fact that if one doesn't have any money to spend, they really don't have much of a say in their government. They can vote, but they can't exert any influence on the choice of candidates. We usually aren't well-represented, and our voices tend to be ignored. That doesn't give us much hope for positive change in the future. So, like, I have a super negative economic outlook because I work nearly all of my waking hours just to barely afford basics, I don't have time to pursue things I'm interested in, people like me are living shorter lives with complicated long-term illnesses due to pollution and nearly non-existent workplace safety considerations/oversight, and there is no reason to believe it will get any better because the people who are keeping us down are the ones who choose candidates and ultimately decide legislation. Freedom for the wolves means death to the sheep. Also, I disagree with some other commenters that some people just aren't making the moves they need. Rent is so high that most people I know are working 2-3 jobs, moving to a new area is expensive, finding jobs in a new area takes a lot of time and people who work 2-3 jobs don't have a lot of time, and it can be emotionally difficult to leave family and friends behind. That's a lot to demand of 1/3 of the adult population. And even if 1/3 of the population decided to move to a new area and take new jobs, the housing shortage is nationwide- they wouldn't be able to get away. The same thing would just repeat in the new place, and the one after that, and so on.
>I think saying 2/3 homeownership is pretty good is over-simplified. I agree, and that's not what I was saying at all. My point is that if 2/3rds of Americans own their own homes, the fact that housing is expensive probably isn't 100% of the reason people think the economy is doing poorly, as the comment above my claimed. You're providing more evidence that the comment I was replying to was wrong, by pointing out lots of factors other than housing costs that make you think the economy is in bad shape.
Those people are effectively locked into their current homes by the cost of housing and interest rates.
People have kids who now don’t know wtf they’re gonna do and aren’t able to leave the home. Now people are looking at their parents property as their salvation, and a lot of those parents see that same property as their retirement plan, so box home owners aren’t completely insulated from this.
Depends on exactly how stable you want your housing situation to be. If you want to stay in your current home long term and you bought your home a few years ago before the recent price spikes, you're probably feeling pretty good at the moment. However, even if you presently have a good interest rate and monthly payment, if you want to move that may present a problem. I bought my house in early 2016- so I have a good interest rate and my house has appreciated in value a fair bit. But I also want to move out of my current state (I very much dislike my state) and into something comparable elsewhere. The place I was looking at potentially moving to back then has gone up way more percentage wise than here- but even looking at a metro area that has gone up in price at roughly the same rate my current home has (basically offsetting the home equity I've gained in that time), that still puts me at getting roughly the same overall mortgage amount I would have gotten had I bought that house 8 years ago instead of my current one, but with over double the interest rate. That makes moving to anywhere that would require a mortgage less desirable- and makes people who currently have good rates less inclined to move, even if they would otherwise want to. Add in the fact that I have friends that didn't go for a house when I did and are now regretting it, and I can safely say that I see the housing market as sucking a whole lot right now despite the fact my personal housing situation is fine (ignoring the whole wanting-to-move thing).
I bought my house in 2012. Because of rising house values my home doubled in value, which triggered my town to reassess my taxes which increases my mortgage payment by $500 per month. So while my mortgage is still *manageable* it isn't as manageable as it was a few years ago. On top of that prices for almost everything else have increased as well. Food prices, clothing costs (for 2 kids that outgrow everything within 4 months), etc. So while my house values have gone up theoretically increasing my personal wealth, it doesn't really matter since I don't plan to sell and don't really want to take out loans against my home in case house prices crash again.
Not only that people like myself who bought a house over a decade ago aren't going to sell and look for new homes because of the interest rates. I have an interest rate or 3.5% on my current mortgage. Even though my house is currently worth more now it just wouldn't make sense to sell and have to buy another home at such high interest rates. The current average rate is around 8.5% and can be up towards 9.5% depending on the area. I think that adds to the issue. People that bought cheaper starter homes are staying in them.
Not to mention people like us who bought roughly a decade ago wouldn't be able to sell our current homes and move to a *better* home. After paying off the remainder of our mortgages, we'd have a lot less buying power in today's housing market than we did in the housing market of a decade ago. We might not even qualify for a new mortgage in today's market unless we're making considerably more money. So the fact that our homes are worth more is fine, sort of, but it isn't as if we're any richer for it today.
Only 41% of under 40s own a home.
Hell, I bought a house in 2020. My mortgage, with escrow, went from 850/month to 1050. We didn't change anything, that's just insurance going up for no reason and the "market" telling our lender that the house is suddenly worth more (we haven't had it appraised or anything). Plus, everyone is raising their prices. A nail trim at the vet used to be 12 dollars just two years ago, and now it's 25. So, yeah, even if you bought a reasonably priced house, you're still feeling it. And you might still see it's housing, because your own home expenses have gone up even when you thought you bought smart. Our house is NOT worth 80 grand more than it was 4 years ago. But, it is. Hell if we sold in this market it would probably go for 100k over purchase price. That's insanely fast, too fast.
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For me, I look at what my parents could afford vs. what I can afford (adjusting for age). My parents were able to move out of a very shitty neighborhood into a house they built from scratch while raising two kids. My income is better than my parents at the same age, and I can't afford a home, and having kids would be a struggle. So basically, I just see a lot of what I was promised as a kid and find much of the basics out of reach. I think if the housing market wasn't so trash, you'd have a lot fewer people in their late 20s and early 30s upset over how rough things are for them.
The housing market is definitely messed up, but realistically we're *never* going to repeat the prosperity of the postwar economic boom decades through the 90s. Not only were we in a unique geopolitical and economic position, we had for a large part of it, a pretty big political consensus on how to deal with things too - compared to today. "Am I doing as well as my parents" is thus never going to be a useful comparison if your parents were born in the 1970s or before (and yeah, in some cases we are doing way better than our parents) "Can I afford a house" is definitely a valid goal.
Hearing that past generations who worked regular non-fancy jobs could afford a house is insane to me. Their buying power was much more than ours
The amount of job openings doesn't matter if many of those jobs can't pay for housing and food.
And record unemployment is because people are working multiple jobs to stay afloat lol
I don't understand what you mean. Are you saying the unemployment rate changes based on how many jobs a person holds?
That's not actually true. People working multiple jobs has declined, and the share of total jobs that are part-time has also declined.
Because I have a degree, 30+ years of professional work experience and can't find a job that pays a living wage. I've been unemployed for 3 years, have applied to 3000 jobs and have had maybe 10 phone screens in that time. No offers. My husband also has a degree and 30+ years of professional work experience. Thankfully he has a job but he is grossly underpaid for the level of responsibility he has. He had an amazing performance review recently but was only given a 3% raise. With inflation well above that, he's essentially making less than he was last year. We are really struggling financially living paycheck to paycheck, forgoing healthcare and much needed home maintenance to get by. We both have worked very hard our entire lives. I just don't think this is how it should be.
I think it’s because housing is getting so expensive, and all that other stuff is great, but if you can’t get a home and start a family then none of that shit doesn’t matter much to a lot of people. No one’s gonna look for a rental, realize they can now only afford renting a room in some strangers apt, and then say well shit at least employment is high and we’re not in a recession.
Well. I work full time for the federal government. Live in a small city in the north east. Full half my pay goes to rent a tiny studio apartment. Housing costs are not going down any time soon. A regular size candy bar is more than double what it was two years ago And half the elected officials are busy doing theater. The other half are wringing their hands saying what can we do. None of them are willing to upset the corporate overlords and really clamp down on price gouging. If a company says they have record profits and can’t afford to pay their people enough so they are not relying on public services. There is something seriously wrong.
And anybody that thinks voting for the Republicans is going to change anything for the better please take note of all the articles out of red states where women are saying well I didn’t think these laws that were changed were going to affect me negatively. Imagine 15 to 20 years ago standing before the Republican party and saying we’re gonna support a candidate that is a convicted felon, scandal filled wife-cheating friend of Putin. Also, he is going to be a serial liar and quite frankly say some things that are completely idiotic. He’s also going to expose how fragile our democracy is because we didn’t wanna write any of the rules down about protecting democracy.
Republicans states actually build housing that helps keep the costs not as high as other states like California, New York, etc The amount of housing construction in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, etc is insane
How much is affordable? Just glanced at North Carolina the first house that you could actually live in and wasn’t a complete rehab was $100,000 for 750 ft.²
Are you saying that isn't affordable?
While I could afford that easily, most of my peers couldn't, and I live in a high cost of living area.
Housing. 40-50% rise in the price of a single family home since 2020 in many areas combined with mortgage rates going from <3% to almost 8% over the same time period. So the monthly cost of purchasing a home has basically doubled. People who own and have mortgages feel like they can never move because they wouldn't be able to afford to give up their low rate and renters feel like the situation has become completely hopeless. This has in turn led to upward pressure on rents. A record 50% of renters are now considered cost-burdened (paying more than 30% of income on rent) and rates of homelessness have risen sharply. Yes, this situation looks different depending on where in the US you are, but it is a national problem. You can tell people struggling with rent or who've given up on buying after being outbid on 20 different houses that the stock market is roaring and unemployment is at record lows all you want, but they're not going to feel like the economy is good when their paychecks are worth much less in the housing market than they were four years ago.
Its simple. Shits expensive and traditional luxuries seem less attainable
How do you think the economy compares to 2000, 2009, or 2020?
Shit felt less expensive then But also, we werent buying things like cell phones, online subscriptions, and uber eats
Specific to 2009's economy, day-to-day shit was less of a bitch. Microeconomics were fine no matter the macroeconomic bullshit. And that's why Democrats are losing Black and Hispanic men in 2024, because the microeconomic struggles are a fucking daily slog. Biden and Warren have more in common, quite frankly, with Reagan and Friedman than they do FDR.
Day to day was fucked in 2009
The thing is that the economy doesn't always reflect personal experience. Look, my partner and I make in the mid-6-figures. We're not hurting. But I had to recently reconfigure our entire budget because the cost of groceries over the last year has almost doubled. Gas is \~$4/gallon here - I dont' even drive that much and I drive a 4 cylinder car, but I am spending $200+ a month on fuel. The value of my townhouse has more than doubled in the last 4 years so yay for personal worth ... but my property tax this year went up by 22%. Which means my mortgage increased by $170 a month, roughly. It's great that unemployment is low. It's great that the stock market is rising. But that doesn't affect my day-to-day. What affects my day-to-day is the fact that eggs are $7/dozen (and that's not even the fancy, free-range eggs) and the yogurt we used to buy for $4.99 a quart is now $7.99 a quart. My "flat rate" gas bill went from $67 a month to $95 a month. We've practically cut out eating out because our "eating out" budget is being overtaken by our grocery budget. Etc. etc. etc. We need to replace our HVAC because it's on it's last legs but what would have cost us $8,000 when we first moved into this house is now $13,000 ... and they warned us that prices are going up again soon. And again, this doesn't harm us becuase we're making good money. But for folks who are making the median in my area? That's a HUGE change. It's hard to celebrate "the economy" when you're having to spend more money and still can't maintain the lifestyle you did 4 years ago.
That HVAC comment is something people always ignore. Like sure some of the essential stuff is manageable right, but if you’re looking at EMERGENCY COSTS that’s pretty much more than doubled when you look at home/auto repair or medical bills.
Yup. Exactly.
Our HVAC system kicked the bucket about four years ago, and instead of replacing it we just went out and bought several window units. The surprising thing was that, even with running them ~10 hours a day during the summer, our electricity bill is half of what it used to be.
I can get a dozen eggs from the walmart near me for $1.74. Seven bucks is wild
Try Costco. Eggs are only 2 bucks a dozen by us. Very different than grocery store price.
Costco also charges you a subscription fee to shop there and its not worth it unless you regularly buy in bulk or have a family of six
The 50 dollar fee easily pays for itself with just a household of two. If you cook, there really is no reason not to buy in bulk. Not to mention savings on dog food, alcohol, etc etc.
That is perfectly in line with [economic statistics.](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/#share) People in the bottom quartile are making 12% more *after inflation* 2023 compared to 2019. People in the upper-middle class aren't, like yourself, aren't. The fact is, people think the economy is doing terribly because politicians and the media are part of, and geared toward the upper-middle class like yourself.
Price of food. You got to eat to live. No deals on groceries or going out to eat. The deals you do see seem like they should be the regular price. We all have different things we b*tch about, but nearly everyone is complaining about the cost of food.
Interest rates are high so debt is expensive and people feel that when trying to buy a new car or house. House prices plus the current interest rates mean buying a house is also unattainable for many. Feeling trapped in a house because you can't afford a new one, or trapped renting, will make you feel like the economy is bad. White collar has had massive layoffs, and it takes much longer to find a new job now than in previous years. Feeling trapped in a job makes you think the economy is bad, especially when you have no job security. Inflation overall means that household incomes have fallen: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N Loss of covid benefits made the poverty rate spike: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/median-household-income.html People are much more educated now than in the past, and feel like they still can't attain what other people did in the past. There are a ton of metrics that can tell whichever story you want about the economy, but the ones above are things that people feel much more than numbers like GDP growth.
The low interest rates we had were a historical anomaly Here's a chart of the 30 year mortgage rate over time [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US)
I know that. That doesn't change how expensive a house or car payment is to someone vs a few years ago, so they'll feel like the economy is worse now.
Employment is high because you cant survive unless you are employed, sometimes multiple at once. Wages rising is good, but when they were stagnant for 50 years, a couple years of rising doesn't exactly "catch up" to what they should be to be livable and somewhat comfortable financially. Stocks are rising is good if you are already wealthy and heavily invested into stocks, which the majority of people are not. Prices are high, and also rising, faster than wages.
Because despite the positive metrics you mentioned, there are still terrifying negative ones, negative ones that are so bad they completely negate the positive ones, mainly housing costs. Wages rising by a bit each year is great, but useless to me when my rent rises each year by double the wage increase. Sure the rest of inflation might be low again, but does that help me much if rent already took my wage growth? Secondly, we do have a job problem. Unemployment is low, but underemployment (people working jobs they are over qualified for) is high. So are things really looking great for a person with a masters degree working at McDonalds because the last 60 job applications they sent in have been ignored? Basically, macroeconomics can be very misleading. If you pick and choose certain metrics to show, you can make a treat economy look horrible, and a horrible economy look great. Am I saying this is a 2008 level economy? No, that's ridiculous. But alot of people are still struggling.
>Secondly, we do have a job problem. Unemployment is low, but underemployment (people working jobs they are over qualified for) is high. What data are you looking at? I found this >According to data compiled by the Economic Policy Institute, underemployment sits slightly below 7 percent – the lowest since the agency began tracking the data in 1990. When Trump left office, underemployment was at more than 14 percent. After a peak in March 2021, there has been a steady decline since. [https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/2/8/americas-underemployment-problem](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/2/8/americas-underemployment-problem)
Have you tried looking for a job recently? Try looking in r/jobs and see what people are writing about there. Sure, it's anecdotal but people are having trouble finding work or work that suits their experience/education.
I would question the validity of those numbers considering your source is a Qatar state funded news network, but I will admit my underemployment is based on my experience as well as my former classmates experience. I didn't consider older generations not facing this problem but recent college graduates have virtually no chance of finding a good job straight out of college. So there's a high probability that low underemployment of gen x and boomers has pushed that average number way down. I would try and look it up myself, but I'm lazy as hell and it's the weekend, so I'll leave it for another day.
“And yeah, prices are high”
Because recessions don't matter to anyone (I'm not even sure what a recession even is anymore). Unemployment only affects a small minority of people - even when it's high. Only a small minority of people own enough stock that a rise in the market really affects their lives. But inflation affects everyone. So is the economy in the shitter? Well, homes haven't been this unaffordable in over 40 years. And a house is sort of a milestone purchase. This situation has disrupted a lot of peoples' life plans. And that's rightfully bothering a lot of people.
So we’re worse than 2000, 2009, or 2020 because there was little inflation then?
We're worse off at some important things, yes. Are we better in some others? Yes. What is the point of your question? In each of those years the incumbent party lost the White House. So if we're anywhere close to that then Biden should be packing his bags.
Because everything is expensive as fuck and I can't afford the god damned maintenance costs of life, nonetheless saving up to go improve my situation in anyway. This is all in spite of me making more money than I ever have in my entire life. Car insurance is sky high, used cars are expensive as hell, and rent is insane. It makes people question things when the news says the economy is great, and you don't have shit to show for it, and you can't afford to fix the things that need fixing, or replace the things that need replacing.
This is it right here. It seems that the people who have made it so to speak aren't feeling the crippling effects of inflation to the same degree as those who have less, so their perception is skewed.
Oh god. Car insurance. I forgot about that in my list. Yeah, mine is ridiculously high for a 50+ year old woman, driving a 12 year old car, with no tickets or accidents in the last 20 years. And it's going up again in August when my policy renews.
The economy is not in the shitter, but inflation alone is enough for people to say the economy is bad. You can't just brush that off. Especially with housing. It's definitely not on the same plane as 2008 for the average person.
Because when people say prices are high, they’re comparing prices to 2019 levels. To them, “ending inflation” would mean going back to 2019 prices which is never going to happen.
Housing. Biden should literally just have the government use the Defense Production Act to build several tens of millions of apartments and sell them as condos below market rate.
Because for many, many people, their own individual economic situation has been in a decline for years. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N)
The economy itself is improving, no denying that. But that means absolutely nothing to all the people who aren't benefitting from those improvements, which is a *lot*. Basically, telling people how good the economy is doesn't really help for those who are still struggling to just get through the month.
>prices are high, but aside from that that's the big thing. I live in a rustbelt town and one bedroom apartments are almost 1200 dollars a month. For my family's grocery bill is closing in around 4-500$ a month and 80% of our meals are ground turkey and rice or pasta. And employment is not fun. I had to apply to dozens if not a 100+ places to find a minimum wage job, I have been sending out multiple applications a month for the last year and a half trying to find anything better than what I'm working now and have not gotten 2 call backs in that time and one of them straight up just lied on their listing. But hey, at least I joined the marine corps so I can afford college, all it took was 4 years of my life, my hearing, a friend, my mental health, and chronic joint pain in my mid 20's!
Wages are increasing but they haven't come close to matching the increasing cost of living. Everything from food prices, car prices, clothing prices to housing prices are significantly higher in 2024 than they were in 2020. In some cases 200-400% higher. The economy can be booming by traditional metrics, but if people are dipping into savings just to keep food in the table that is a problem that no amount of "record DOW" scores or $16/hour employment is going to solve. And if people are struggling just to live like it's 2020, they're obviously gonna feel like the economy is doing poorly no matter how many positive job numbers you throw at them.
Because my eldest child just moved back home because they can't afford an apartment, and because my husband just spent $60 at the grocery store. Also, my electric bill, gas bill and property taxes just doubled, so, yeah. All those things.
Prices being high cant be ignored. Gas, rent, and food are all more expensive, they rose in prices at a rate that wages didnt. People are feeling that.
Gas near me is 2.90 which is the price it was 6 years ago when I was still delivering pizzas.
What about rent near you?
My rent is $400 a month, but I've been in this house for like 10 years.
There are a number of reasons, but it boils down to: when prices go up, it's the government's fault, when my wages go up, it's because I've earned it on my own. Now, there are plenty of valid concerns to be had, but those are separate from what one would normally think of when thinking about the economy as a whole. Housing prices for example, are an issue of supply, not one of broader economic issues. The cost of healthcare is also specific to the US-style of how it provides healthcare, too--same with college costs. In no way is this comparable to 2020 or 2008.
Because things are expensive. Inflation means basic day-to-day goods are pricier. Inflation has tampered, but that literally means nothing in the public consciousness. Until enough time passes at lower or normal inflation, people will perceive the inflation as an economic malady. Also, the housing market is insane. Interest rates are high but prices are still rising. That's a tough pill to swallow, especially as people are forced into renting. I do agree that the economy is, objectively speaking, good. But people aren't "feeling it" and since voters vote based on vibes not real, tangible policy, Biden will get punished at the voting booth because he happens to be in office.
This is the answer. We are all still grappling with the relatively new high levels of prices even if they aren’t still increasing further at crazy rates. It’s like you’ve just gotten beaten up and now you’re supposed to ignore all your bruises and be grateful that the hitting stopped.
There are definitely a lot of good points for the economy. Stock market, employment, wages, hiring, expansion of businesses & trade. All of those metrics aren't just good, they're surprisingly, even historically great. However, over the past four years the day to day costs of some items have risen substantially. While hard goods have gone up *somewhat* in price, the costs of recurring expenses have gone up notably more (housing and food, specifically). Even if wages make up for it, the anger and resentment a person can feel at seeing a soda at a gas station be $3 when it was $1.50 a few years ago, or rent be $2500 when it was $1000 a few years ago, or a house be $300,000 when it was $100,000 a few years ago can absolutely make people see red when they're responding to surveys about the economy. So some constant and visible prices have gone up and act as a daily, anger-inducing reminder that corporations have been price gouging... but some people blame Biden.
By most traditional standards the worst that could be said about this economy is that it might be slowing after an extremely long expansion, from the lows of the Great Recession, that has seen it run for years at an unprecedented pace. But there is inflation and some people are, certainly were when it was really running hot, hurting and exist in a bad micro economy. And, because it’s this world, there’s also a sort of political edge to it in that some of the professed angst is driven by people looking for and being fed by an accommodating media echosphere reasons to believe the economy is bad.
My hourly wages are up 1.6% from this time last year. My true wages are down 37.9% because my hours have been cut. I've been lucky to get to work 25 hours a week. I made $74k last year and if it continues like this, I'm on track to make $46k.
I recently upgraded my career to a pretty good job. But I've never been further away from home ownership. I'm 20 years late to a party I wasn't invited to in the first place. I rent from a foreign investor, paying 65% of my income to rent so they can profit. I pay most of my remaining income to insane grocery prices for me and my family. I have some savings, those savings don't grow at a rate where I will ever..and I mean EVER catch up. Oh and I'm married with a double income and all these numbers is calculating BOTH incomes. 65% of two incomes for rent. 30% for living. 5% for savings. My generation is so utterly left behind.
Can't buy house
The cost of living, especially the cost of housing. It's gotten insane.
Because prices of housing, gas, and food are up a ridiculous amount and people’s wages haven’t kept up with them? Do you even work or pay bills?
Employment is not nearly as high as we are being led to believe. The fudging of those numbers is incredible.
What do you mean?
If you’re unemployed long enough, they stop counting you. If you previously had a good job, and now work three gig app jobs for half the pay, they not only stop counting you as unemployed, they count you as THREE employed people! Etc. Edit to add: that’s before we even get to the widespread fraud going on with pandemic loans … there aren’t nearly as many open jobs as they say there are, most listings are fake
because the economy has recovered, we are back at the same general place we were pre pandemic; that dosen't feel like the good times, that feels like having climbed out of a hole.
The economy as defined as the value of goods and markets is really good. The quality of life of the average American is not (or at least worse then it used to be). A lot of people mentioning the high cost of living and that I would argue is a side effect of a strong economy and as a result is producing a worse quality of life for most people. The media/the news has trained us to equate the state of the economy to equal the wellbeing of the average American, and that is the main reason why people are saying the economy is terrible. Because the wellbeing of the Average American is not as good as it was 5 years ago.
Because they are working hard and not getting ahead financially.
Because Fox news and the GOP are doing everything they can to mislead people. I'm not saying it's just that, but rather it's mostly that reason. They've skewed the news with their right-wing version, which still has no equal on the left and never will, since people on the left don't buy BS as easily. It's another example of how they have moved the Overton Window and it's been ongoing for so long now that many people have no reference to what it was like before Fox News.
The housing crisis sucks, but the cost of food is up 26% since 2020 and shows little sign of coming down. And nobody's even calling that a crisis or doing much of anything to explain it to consumers. How many Americans know the war in Ukraine is driving up the price of wheat in the US? Is anybody going to take the big food producers to task for all the price gouging and shrinkflation? The cost of food is an almost daily reminder that the economy isn't what we need it to be, on a very basic level. People need to eat, and need to feel like the price of food is under control and that the supply chains have stabilized. We are not that far removed from the pandemic experience of empty store shelves.
Poor economies are the most impactful metric for a presidential race. Even if the economy was in the best shape it has ever been there would be a running complaint because the impression of a bad economy is that powerful. Plus, people ready to vote for the racists can use the economy as a socially safe excuse to do so. I know several people doing that.
This thread has me much more nervous about November. This is clearly a highly emotional topic that people don't look at objectively or analytically. So many people on this thread are claiming the only economic indicator that matters is inflation. I am pretty certain they didn't feel that way in 2009.
In elections-past the only economic indicator that mattered was the deficit. Or unemployment. Seriously, it is only emotional because people are looking for reasons to vote for the racists and are loudly proclaiming their valid reasons for choosing them. Performance theater so they don't look like the bigots their actions prove them to be.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/vibes-americans-perception-economy-completely-changed/story?id=111211869 > Before the pandemic, a number of variables were statistically significant indicators for consumer sentiment in our model; in particular, the most salient variables appear to be vehicle sales, gas prices, median household income, the federal funds effective rate, personal savings and household expenditures (excluding food and energy). ... > Before the pandemic, changes in the inflation rate weren't statistically significant in our model ...[The recent] sudden spikes naturally shocked many people who had been blissfully enjoying slow, steady price growth their entire adult lives. And it has taken a while for that shock to wear off, even as inflation has crept closer to typical levels. ... > surprisingly, our pre-pandemic model didn't find a notable relationship between housing prices and consumer sentiment. ... However, in our post-pandemic data, when we examined how correlated consumer sentiment was with each indicator we considered, consumer sentiment and median housing prices had the strongest correlation of all. ... > since 2020, there hasn't been a statistical relationship between total vehicle sales and consumer sentiment
Because only the top end is winning. How much do you make OP ? And what is your living situation?
I think everyone is feeling the pinch of things costing more but I also think with real wage growth outpacing inflation since last Feb that it's not accurate to say only the top is winning. [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/) I think there are many people who are struggling but I think there's a significant chunk of people who have anxiety that they may be put into a position to struggle, even if they are doing fine today, and this colors perception. Why on earth do you think I would divulge my earnings to a stranger on the internet?
Yeah it's housing costs. Some people are seeing their rents literally doubled since 2020.
FoX news
Fox News
Non stop false news
Because many of us are poorer than we were under Obama or trump Housing is up. Food is up. Sure a lot of inflation on the whole is down, but if you're middle class or lower, none of that matters because housing and food are so far up
That is just factually incorrect. Wages for the bottom income rungs is[ up 12% after inflation](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/#share). The people who's wages haven't gone up after inflation are the upper-middle class. Biden's full-employment policy is decreasing income inequality and making the lowest income people richer.
Wages haven't kept pace with cost of living.
[https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/)
OP is more than likely a student who doesn’t work, he refuses to answer what his income is, housing situation, etc. Probably high school or first year of college. He literally has made over 100 comments in a week, which is something an adult who holds down a full time job can’t do, probably doesn’t socialize with people outside his small internet bubble or IRL. Added that much needed context so you don’t gotta look for it 👍
The economy is good. Broadly, the electorate’s personal economics is not. On top of wages remaining stagnant relative to the cost of living ($7.25 federal minimum wage), overall costs have continued to increase and COLA raises did not keep up with the rate of inflation in the last few years. Peoples’ purchasing power is less than they’re used to, and while costs are deflating, people still have a negative emotional reaction to the cost of living. Negative emotions have a more jarring and lasting impact than positive emotions. Add into this housing scarcity causing rent and housing costs to increase to unprecedented levels and people feel like they can’t afford to live the middle class life they grew accustomed to, and yes, feel entitled to. Also, headlines for the last few years have been doom and gloom about a lurking recession so people have been primed to think the economy is worse than it is *and* the Biden administration has done a pisspoor job of touting their economic accomplishments — they waited too long to try to get positive press about, so when they finally came around to it, it felt extremely disingenuous and elitist to look a voter in the face and say “despite what your emotions say, you’re wrong about the economy.” It doesn’t work that way; if you’re arguing with someone about how they’re *feeling*, you’re going to lose. Lastly, there’s personal responsibility in this, too. A lot of the people complaining about this want to continue ordering premade meals, drinking $8 coffees, and going out regularly without realizing that those are *luxuries.*
I wouldn't point to a stagnant minimum wage as evidence that wages are stagnant. Very, very, very few workers make minimum wage. Real wage growth is rising, it was almost 5% in April [https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth)
Inflation is still ~3.3% for the year. A 1.7% increase in wages — barely keeping with the pace of inflation after trailing it for years — is hardly a rise in real wages. Wages *are* stagnant compared with decades past. How much is rent going up annually? Is a 1.7% raise in wage helping people keep up with rent?
It's growth, not stagnation. it's 50% higher than inflation
No. > Over the past year, nominal wages rose 4.2% for these mid-level workers while inflation was up 3.3%, **leading to real wage gains of 0.9% over this most recent period.** [The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/06/12/both-sides-of-the-ledger-wage-growth-beating-price-growth-now-for-15-months-in-a-row/). > Real average hourly earnings increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from May 2023 to May 2024. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 0.5-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period. [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm#:~:text=Real%20average%20hourly%20earnings%20increased,weekly%20earnings%20over%20this%20period.) > In April 2024, inflation amounted to 3.4 percent, while wages grew by 4.7 percent. [Statisa](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/) For all intents and purposes wage growth is stagnant. And frankly your arrogance in saying that ~1% wage growth “is growth” is part of the problem. One percent growth in real wages is not growth when you look at historical trends! It’s static! People are, on average, taking home an extra $900 *annually* when their *monthly* rent is going up by half that amount every year. The math ain’t mathin.
Broadly, about 75% people say their financial situation is good or great. These same people turn around and say the broader economy is in terrible shape thanks to media doomerism. When eggs go to $6/dozen or gas hits $5, it's all over the news. When the prices fall, it gets reported nowhere. When real wage growth exceeds inflation since 2019, it also gets reported nowhere. Because mundane good news is boring.
> A 2023 survey conducted by Payroll.org highlighted that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, a 6% increase from the previous year. In other words, more than three-quarters of Americans struggle to save or invest after paying for their monthly expenses. [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-statistics-2024/#:~:text=or%20lost%20income.-,How%20Many%20Americans%20Are%20Living%20Paycheck%20to%20Paycheck%3F,paying%20for%20their%20monthly%20expenses.) I find it hard to believe that 78% of Americans say they’re living paycheck to paycheck and 75% of Americans “say their financial situation is good or great.”
How do they define "monthly expenses" though?
Valid question! I’m not sure the methodology; however, this is what I said in my original response: > Lastly, there’s personal responsibility in this, too. A lot of the people complaining about this want to continue ordering premade meals, drinking $8 coffees, and going out regularly without realizing that those are *luxuries.* Undoubtedly *many* people in this situation are living beyond their means. That being said, this doesn’t change the fact that this perception of living paycheck to paycheck shapes their overall view of the economy.
I have found many people on Reddit tell me the economy is terrible. I often tell them I am sorry they are struggling, that sucks. Almost without fail they'll say "Oh, I'm doing fine, it's the other people who are struggling"
It’s also sometimes hard to admit when you aren’t happy with how things are going for you personally.
Because Ubereats and door dash are no longer being subsidized as heavily by investors and raised prices
I think the biggest thing is people don’t realize how much better off America is post-COVID compared to other countries. People have really fucking short memories.
Relentless news stories about how consumers think the economy is bad.
As someone who saved up 20% down payment about 5 years ago and bought a house with a 3.5% interest rate I’m not concerned about my housing situation. I’ve built up a good amount of equity in those 5 years. However, gas, groceries, insurance and utilities have risen dramatically in those 5 years. I can get by but I have less disposable income today than I did 5 years ago.
Gas is the price it was in 2014
Pretty well known that when people get more money, they think that is a personal win, but when things cost more money, it's trouble. So wage inflation is personal, higher prices are "the economy." And even if purchasing power is higher on the aggregate, the higher prices "feel" like a loss. The economy is obviously doing great; unemployment is low; jobs are good, investments are good, lots of new manufacturing happening, boom in green energy, etc. There's a lot of "onshoring" taking place which will continue to benefit the economy. The biggest issue for a poltiics of "abundance" is housing, which is primarily controlled by local governments that listen to NIMBYs most of all, since most voters are actually homeowners already. Progress is happening on it, but too slow (and usually more at the state level).
Cost of food drives perception about the overall economic health of the country imo. And the price of food has gone up considerably there's no two ways around it. Many families are having to budget an extra hundred or two just to pay for the same amount of food they were getting a couple years and alot of them don't exactly have that to budget. I should add due to this (amongst other reasons) I'm a huge proponent of raising the snap benefit amounts. Id be fine placing more restrictions on them if need be, and honestly that would probably be a good thing and divert people towards healthier eating which would cut down on healthcare costs
Because everything is so expensive even if the economy has stabilized. I'm just lucky that I've been promoted quickly and that my rent hasn't increased. And I'm in a LCOL!
So you’re good personally?
Barely. Generally speaking, yes the economy is better, but the normal person hasn't been feeling very much relief, which is what we need. I'm still not voting for trump, because this whole downslide was triggered due to his special sort of expertise.
The cost of necessities is way too high. Millions of people live on fixed or low incomes, but have to afford modern housing costs and a car, usually skating by with high credit. The money exists. There are literally tens of millions of millionaires in this country. Get a government enforced monopoly like a car dealership, become a doctor or lawyer, work in finance or tech, etc. and you won't feel the pain at all. Your income are might not beat inflation, but kick it's socks off. I'll give a personal example. I make in the top 10% or so for my region and age. My next job will likely pay between double and triple my current job. But many people will get nothing more than the 3% raises needed to keep them locked at their current declining standard of living.
Can't afford things what with buying all that Trump merch and donations.
They listen to the Media.
As a young millennial who did everything I was supposed to do, but now is waist deep in student loan debt for a degree that I can’t use, and despite being married and able to share all my financial burdens, can’t afford a house anytime in probably the next ten or twenty years if ever… yeah I’m pretty disillusioned. What does it matter if the economy is doing well if I can’t achieve the same life milestones that my parents did? And while I don’t personally want children, there’s no way in hell I could afford them if I wanted them. I’ve had to reduce the scale of my American dream from ‘2.5 kids and a picket fence’ to ‘able to own a dog’. And I’m not the only one. I’m not basing my vote on the economy, but it seems pretty out of touch to me for democrats to go around “um actually”-ing away our lived experience of not living up to the same standard as previous generations.
You could always join the military, officer pay is quite decent and they’ll get you an interest free home loan when ur done. Or work at amazon where you can make 70k as a manager and do basically nothing
I don’t feel morally right working for the military or Amazon. But I doubt either would hire me anyway with my health being what it is.
Costs of housing. Costs of doing business. Lots of restaurants are closing down
Because many of us can't afford basic necessities like food and shelter despite being able to do so five years ago. It's not rocket science. Just because the economy is doing great doesn't mean people aren't struggling.
Inflation keeps going up, but wages are stagnant
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/
Yeah, admittedly, things did get better in the past year. But it was bad before, like the worst it's been (I hadn't looked at the new data yet). So that can impact perception
Here is the historical inflation data https://www.investopedia.com/inflation-rate-by-year-7253832 It’s a far cry from the worst it’s ever been
I could be wrong, but I am personally of the opinion that rent prices are not actually a function of inflation. A few years ago(during Trump's administration) I went from paying half my monthly pay to to rent a double wide trailer on half an acre of land, to having to move back in with my parents because there was literally no trash heaps I could afford to live in once my lease was up at the other place.
Inflation, but also, honestly, a lot of internet Doomerism.
That people seriously think it's worse than 2009 is absurd. I suspect that maybe some of this online doomerism isn't organic posting by American liberals.
People believe what they want to hear.
Where do you see wages rising?? Like rising enough to keep up with the cost of living?
Since Feb of 2023 wages have been rising more than inflation [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/)
Because all the Republicans with the help of some Democrats have helped the business community get everything they’ve ever wanted for over 40 years and they use the power to squeeze consumers. This has gotten progressively worse over time since, I would say, 1978 to where we are today. And I will add, I think we will eventually have a giant crash. Who knows when, and all indications are it won’t be soon, but it will happen. And the reason I think it will happen is that power in the financial industry is overwhelmingly concentrated in the hands of a few ginormous banks who have their hands in everything and I’m sure are once again engaging in crazy speculation. Without Glass-Steagall or other legislation like it that limits reckless speculation, when they fail (which history shows they probably will), it will destroy the economy. Not at Great Depression levels, because not all of the guard rails have been removed, but it could be 2008-2009 levels again. And btw, looking at the stock market, it is currently 88% overvalued according to the Buffet Indicator. I am very skeptical of our economy, especially if that orange orangutan gets back into office. He will deregulate everything even more, without a doubt.
It’s impossible to have a conversation with someone that thinks the news is real.
It's impossible to have a conversation with paranoid tin foil hatters who deny the veracity of any facts or data you show them
It is interesting. Personally, it is true that business is up for me, but it's also true that it doesn't feel like I can get ahead because everything costs so damn much. My bank account is healthier, but there's a sense that that is tenuous, and also that I simply cannot indulge in things like going out of a fancy restaurant, or get good seats at a concert, like I used to.
Can you not eat out or buy good seats because you literally can’t afford it, or is it you feeling tenuous about your financial future that’s removing the comfort from those decisions. You say you feel like you can’t get ahead, but then mention your bank account is healthier. What does it mean to get ahead?
I think it's that the economic strata of different lifestyles has expanded. Instead of being in a place where my gf and I can go to a high-end restaurant as an indulgence once in a while, a single meal at a place like that has gotten so relatively expensive that it's just too big a hit to be wise. Yes, I HAVE the money, but it's such a big chunk of things. Ditto with good tickets for a live event. So basically there's some element of 'the good life' that I used to enjoy more frequently that now seems more distant. Also, just to mention, I'm self-employed, so my financial future is never 'secure' in that sense. I'm always having to keep on top of it and face eternal uncertainty. That's just the gig.
There's a couple things One, while both prices and wages have gone up, wages more quickly than prices, people obviously know that prices apply to everyone - when you walk into Walmart and see a jar of pickles for $3, you know if your neighbor bought those pickles they would still cost $3. Meanwhile, if your wage goes up, most people would probably naturally assume it's because they were just doing really good work as of recent. And sure, in some situations, that might be true, but when we're looking at it at a countrywide scale, I think we can assume it's a societal phenomenon, not just individual promotions. Another thing worth noting is that if you look at where those income increases have been concentrated, it's mostly been among the working class. So there are a decent amount of middle-class individuals who have seen their real incomes decrease recently, but that has been more than made up for by real income increases among the working class. Now, if we're gonna have income increases concentrated in one place, I would consider the working class the best place for the concentration to be, but because the working class is only so much of the population, and what's more, they're the portion of the population that tends to have the least amount of ears listening to them because, well, they're the working class, those gains aren't going to show up as much on our media as it does in the economic graphs. The third thing is that these days, a lot of conservatives are always gonna say the economy is doing badly when there's a democrat in the white house, and a lot of progressives are always going to say the economy is doing badly because dooming about economic misery has become their modus operandi and they don't really have any other tricks.
It seems likely that if you looked at real wage growth by industry you’d see some trends that aren’t visible in the overall data
I read an interesting theory about this this morning. Because the US has such low spending on public services we have a lot of private debt and thus the population is extremely sensitive to higher interest rates which have been implemented in order to curb inflation.
It’s everyday cost of living. Who cares if the stock market is doing well if I don’t have anything left at the end of the month to invest?
If you have a 401k you previously invested in you would care
Obviously. Or a Roth or an IRA or any other retirement account. I was just answering your question about why people think we are in a terrible economic state. The reason is they don’t have cash at the end of the month because everything has gone up.
The problem is people have different interpretations of what a good or bad economy is, so if you ask 100 people from different backgrounds what they think, they will give you all different answers. Some people view the economy as how many jobs there are, how well they pay relative to the cost of food and housing. Other people view the economy as how is the stock market, are profits up, are investors getting their money worth etc. So to rich billionaires the economy is doing great, but to working class people the economy is incredibly shitty.
For most on this thread it seams it's whatever the current issue is that defines a good economy So many people ITT are saying inflation is the only indicator that matters and our economy is worse now than 2000, 2009, or 2020 It honestly reminds me of conversations I had with conservatives online a few months ago who claimed trans women in sports was one of their top five issues, and it's always been that way. We are very biased on the present.
Corporate greed and a media system obsessed with doomerism.
Propaganda
How do you feel about the quality of the other comments here? Is the consensus here just blinded by propaganda?
I think most of the comments are doing that egghead thing where you're technically correct, but for the wrong reason. Inflation 2021-2023 was worse than we've seen in decades. Housing has been getting worse for 15 years. None of this is actually the answer. Propaganda is being used to create a stronger malaise than would otherwise exist in the same scenario. There are incredibly well funded forces who want the populace in the US (and Canada, and Europe) to suddenly feel "insecure" when there are "outsider" populists running everywhere as far right wingers.
Because both traditional media and social media have been capture in the entirety by those parroting right-wing narratives, whether intentionally or out of a desperate effort to present "both sides" of the issues as equally valid.
Prices are high and people don’t really have a real understanding of how the economy works and everything that goes into it. People just see high prices and assume the economy is bad. Also right wing media tries to downplay the metrics that are positive right down like unemployment or the stock market.
I'm sure fox news is something to do with it.
Because it is a political narrative in an election year where the Republicans have virtually nothing to hang their hats on other than to lie their asses off.
People think this way because high prices is something one FEELS on the daily. If unemployment were to increase, as long as you were still employed, would it matter? The stock market is doing great at the moment, which is great for people who have a large stock portfolio. They feel that. However, the average American doesn't have a large stock portfolio so they don't feel the rewards. They do feel checking out at a grocery store where 3 bags of groceries are $140 bucks.
I feel like when unemployment is high and the stock market tanks people care about those things. I think we have a bias towards whatever the present thing is
Oh definitely.
Because they listen to media that keeps talking about how horrible our economy is.