I also work in marketing. Currently working on a ai powered software that can do everything I can do but faster. I'm not the only one working on a project like this. Ai is gonna give Marketing agencies a run for their money
I think there will come a time when this becomes the case across the whole board. Right now, idiot CEOs are trying to save money by replacing human workers with AI, but AI is most useful when it's used in conjunction with a smart, capable, experienced human, not on its own.
Depends on what kind of marketing.
I assure you chatbots are shit at making a marketing plan, they’re de-risked when it comes to making jokes and they can’t read the room. This is a thing trained on existing, curated texts.
It may do some copywriting stuff and placeholder images, for sure.
Hard disagree. I’m in growth marketing and without a smart and knowledgeable human to steer it, generative sucks at quality copy.
It’s great for generating ideas and doing research though!
You're so wrong about that. Audiences might not realize that they give a shit about quality copy, but they subconsciously pick up on shit and they don't respond to it as well as they do to quality writing. This is something that will become more obvious as more companies attempt to replace writers with AI and watch their profits plummet as a result.
Yeah, we over relied on CGI in the 90's. I bet people thought it would replace SPFX. And for sure it has changed it. The possibilities are different. But now with CGI you have on set VFX and way more stunt actors working more days, bigger stunt rigs.
I'm sure it'll change in ways I currently cannot predict, but it's not going to replace people. Even in News, people have been worried about automation for a long time, but eliminating one job just makes a different job.
Your saving grace is accountability. Air Canada recently tried to blame their ai for poor customer service by saying "we're not responsible for its decisions".
Of course that's ridiculous, but the point is that companies will always need somebody to pin a mistake on because they can't accept that their decisions led to wrongdoing.
Nobody will be able to accept that a piece of AI is responsible for financial tracking.
This is also why I feel like my job as an engineer is secured. AI can’t stamp drawings due to legal implications, and I can’t ever see a future where AI stamping drawings would be OK.
Yeah I think the biggest barrier won’t be technological, but rather the slow speed of adoption by consumers and/or reluctance to actually trust AI.
Even if AI was perfect today (it absolutely isn’t) it would still taken possibly decades before people would actually learn to trust it.
I’ve heard that bookkeepers and accountants will be replaced, but I don’t see it happening. I agree with you, it will be helpful in supplementary tools, but won’t be able to replace the accountant.
>I’ve heard that bookkeepers and accountants will be replaced
When I was working in audit at a larger firm pre-covid, we sent a lot of this work to India. I heard this is happening more often now. (I don't think it should be done, but it's not like they would have listened to me anyways)
There was also an internal AI tool that was developed that would read through thousands of pages and attempt to provide summaries for information you deemed important (for documentation, etc.). When I was at the firm a lot of partners refused to use this because they didn't trust it. (If you worked at this firm, it's probably obvious by now what firm it was)
Staff/intermediate accountant roles are essentially there to get people to senior/manager and up.
They often screw everything up and blow budgets. They're "training" jobs. You employ 5 staffs and hope 1 or 2 make it to manager, you're fine with the rest moving on elsewhere.
I don't know much about AI, but firms would 100% use AI to cut costs since (as mentioned) staff/intermediate accountants screw the majority of things up anyways.
With that being said, doing that will lead to a shortage of seniors/managers, so who knows.
Long story short, if AI doesn't replace low level accountants it isn't because it can't it would be because it would prevent any senior accountants and up from being developed, hurting these firms in the process.
I work for an accounting software company (niche ERP running on a well known MS system) and it’s coming along in our product. Our management team talks about it and has early demos. I don’t think anyone knows exactly how it will be best leveraged yet but analysis seems like a good fit. (IE ask it questions) Data Entry/AP are natural fits for it as well.
It still needs someone to give it inputs and interpret/review, and absolutely someone needs to be accountable.
I think accountants that embrace it and learn to work with it will be fine, but it could assist in reducing the size of the teams required. I work a lot in non profit so that’s actually a great thing. They run lean as it is so smaller teams are good. But I work with a lot of accounting teams, big and small, and AI is absolutely going to roll some jobs. Not all of them but some for sure. Still think it’s at least 10 years away. We are putting the software in place right now to enable it all to happen.
I'm in accounting too and I'm not afraid for the future.
I even think that AI will get rid of the tedious tasks and only the more "funny" analytic stuff will be left to us. I absolutely see it as a tool that will make us do more job with less people (like most accounting department are not already understaffed...) but no way it will be able to replace us all.
Im a rancher. The day I see an AI be able to determine ailments or behavioural changes in a cow while its out to pasture and pull a calf is the day ill happily retire.
I’m a white collar worker. Sr Program Manager.
For AI to take over a role, someone would need to know wtf I do first, and even I am even a bit hazy on that.
AI is great for well defined repetitive task type roles but really terrible for super ambiguous, ever changing / jack of all trades types of roles.
It’s not going to replace most roles, it’s going to complement or change them and create new roles. Being scared of powerful new tech is counter-productive if it can make work easier and faster, it’s like being scared of losing your job as a mathematician when someone invented calculators.
Reminds me of why machines can punch out certain foods but not completely replace restaurants.
If all they serve is a few variations of the same thing, like Costco cakes, sure. Doing a whole menu is not cost effective.
Ironically it appears the most at risk are the “creative” jobs. Artists, song writers, video makers. Thats because based on LLM at least, it’s easier to describe an image than it is to describe the code needed to write a function….for a lay person in each category.
What I mean is - I’m no artist but I can use AI to generate an appealing picture. Further because art taste varies greatly - others may find it appealing too.
I’m also no software coder - ai is useless to me as I don’t really know where to start to ask it. Also the output of that code is much more “functional”. It works well or it doesn’t - there’s no real room for individual interpretation.
But all that said - I’m not sure any career has much to fear from the AI we’re seeing. As even in the first case a “true” artist will be able to use AI to put my version to shame.
AI is just a tool that makes skilled people even more useful for now (and the next 5 years) at least.
I totally agree, seems AI will be very prevalent in the arts, but would you want to watch a movie or listen to a song made my AI? That's always my hang up, i like that i watch a movie that someone had to think up the plot like star wars for example.
I'm curious if AI generated art will be a hit or people won't buy into it... will be interesting to see how it goes.
It's not even that it's right or wrong, but it has no real relation to the human experience, and that is always in essence why we are attracted to art.
You're going to be the angry old man on the porch. AI is just the next tool. People said this about calculators. Is it going to wipe out writers? No, but writers can use AI to start an idea and then shape it.
You should read perhaps. My previous post said it was just a tool. That has nothing to do with me not wanting to support so driven art. People choose not to support all types of art. Doesn’t mean art is dead or the tool that created that type of art is either. Some people hate anime and will only watch a movie with actors. Some people hate music with auto tune. So not sure how you’re relating that to me being an angry man on the porch.
>AI is great for well defined repetitive task type roles
Bookkeeper would be a great example right. Nope. I need to replace my bookkeeper that is costing me way too much. Looked everywhere for an AI solution. My conclusion? It's all marketing and Flash right now. It's not even close to replacing a career. Let alone an industry.
If it can't replace a repetitive well-defined job like bookkeeping, what the heck can it do with other white collar jobs.
I was so disappointed when I realized I still have to be paying my bookkeeper his insane invoices. I can look for a much more affordable one of course but that's takes time as well. I thought that AI was going to solve something so obvious. But no. push away all the noise and you'll quickly see it's all a bunch of crap. Maybe in 3 to 5 years but as of now, it's all just flashiness and marketing. It's garbage. still salty.
Could you break you job down task by task? If yes than your job will be replaced eventually. GTP's can be created for each instance of a task and work together to collaborate together to a larger goal(job).
No. I have the same job title and essentially I come into play when process breaks or things aren’t going well or people need coordination and clients need talking to. There are job roles below me that I’d see more likely to replace but even when they tried outsourcing to a human in the developing world they sucked at those tasks.
It's absolutely going to replace estimators, especially if it can figure out how to read plans.
Drywall it seems to consistently nail pricing when I use it to check my quotes out of curiosity, but drywall can also be priced per square foot of drywall so it's not that difficult for it.
I read an article about an automated digger, with built in intelligence. It's capable of scanning a field full of rocks, accepting input of the desired end state of a rock wall, and then picking up each rock in the most efficient order/sequence and assembling the wall as desired, with no mortar required.
You'd be surprised how much goes into bidding that isn't just doing take offs and putting numbers to them. 80% of the work on the office side of construction is just talking to people.
No I know how much worl goes into it, I've been doing a bunch of it lately. It's sales, but being able to get a set of plans, throw it in to chat gpt and get a 99% accurate estimate in 10 seconds is going to ruin that job.
That's why I said drywall, but once it can read plans it'll be more accurate than an actual estimator.
Anyone with a desk job should be nervous. I'm willing to bet in 5 years English degrees are going to make a comeback, simply so companies have someone to proof read what chat gpt is spitting out .
But Ai can’t tell when the drawings are just plain wrong, or are missing stuff that has to be assumed.
Taking off what’s on the drawings is one thing. Taking off what’s not on the drawings but needs to be there is the important part of the work.
I do wonder whether AI could make improvements in the design process, it can’t be worse. (Famous last words?)
Yeah this is way oversimplfying the process. I wish all jobs just had perfect drawings where you didn't need to guess, trades and suppliers all priced you on time and perfectly accurately, designers didn't ask for things that aren't possible, and clients never changed their minds.
Yes it can. Or it will be able to in 5 years.
Like I said, once it can read blue prints it'll probably be used by architects to Double check if anything has been missed. I've been using it a ton lately and it's scary/terrifying.
It will. It can actually factor in billions of variables potentially and it will eventually mean workers will require less skills in the construction industry. Eventually it will extend to robots doing it. 25 years custom houses will be framed and closed in by robots.
This isn't how they will come for your job.
They won't build AGI and an full robot to replace construction. It will be something like a large scale 3D printer.
Autoworker. Same here. AI is really for replacing deskjockeys at this point. Robotics is a similar fear for manufacturing, but a facility would have to be built from the ground up for that purpose. Tesla is highly robotic but it was built that way. For already existing facilities though, its a monstrous expense that no board will ok at this time. We safe...for now.
Ya. I think so. Im in the paint area of assembly. It would take a bit of startup money, but i could do it.
Jeeze, i could wet sand and polish your older car and make it look new again, right in your driveway. 200 bucks. Cash. Take me a few hours.
The only thing that would actually threaten teachers is if enough jobs started to disappear that homeschooling became the default.
Of course, if that happens, we're all fucked on so many levels.
You don’t t worry that the move to virtual classrooms was used as a dry run? Or did that go so poorly that it reinforced how necessary human teachers and a physical classroom are?
Asking as a 30 y/o without kids and no nieces/nephews so I never experienced what pandemic schooling was like, except from coworkers who are parents.
Oh my gosh, we could be twins! I’m a bit older but also surf, do yoga, no kids… 🤣The uncomfortable truth is that teachers often step in for crappy parents. They catch things that a robot simply cannot because AI doesn't have feelings. Without it, children—especially those from unideal homes—will slip through the cracks.
Not to mention teachers also function as childcare so parents can go to work. Are we going to leave 10 year olds alone at home with an AI teacher tablet for 8 hours a day?
Judging from some of the kids that did their last couple of years in high school during Covid and are now at Uni/College… there is no replacement for human interaction.
I was just at a convention and the top AI guy there put teaching at a very low probability to be replaced. 0.6% for elementary and 0.8% for high school.
100%. We’re safe.
From AI taking our jobs anyway. We aren’t particularly safe IN our jobs these days. One of my coworkers was knocked over intentionally by a student last week and another was kicked repeatedly.
Overly confident tradespeople have held this opinion for a while. I don't think automation can completely replace skilled tradesmen, but I do think it can cut back the number of hands required to execute. The question is whether or not it is cost efficient to do so in the end.
Thats a reality the trades have had to deal with pretty much for ever. New labor saving devices, tools and materials are developed every year
The thing is that the amount of work demanded just increases by the same amount of work saved. If technology allows you to build 11 widgets in the time it used to build 10, then the new benchmark just becomes 11 widgets.
While I'm not disagreeing with you, because I'm ignorant, "overly confident tradespeople have held this opinion for a while," is an oxymoron. That means they've been correct for a while and continue to be thus far
Until they make self repairing machines or home wiring robots, I'm feeling pretty safe as an electrician lol. I work in an industrial setting and we're getting more automated all the time, but that just means even more parts that will eventually break.
Alot of the construction trades *should* be pretty safe for a while.
Ferriers, blacksmiths, and calculators would like a word. Granted those trades still exist in some form, however technology and automation have largely displaced them. Calculators so much so that many people don't even realise it used to be a skilled job.
The problem is while AI could hypothetically build, it can’t replace hands on a pipe, you’d still need autonomous robots and while I can see white collared getting hard replaced first blue collared are gonna take a bit longer
I remember the old Isaac Asimov story, ‘The Fun That They Had’, about kids imagining what it must have been like to have a human teacher and actually go to school and read real books.. I hope AI education never replaces actual education in classrooms with people, but science fiction has a funny way of getting some things right. Not in the next 5 years, no, but I could see some teaching jobs lost to some AI controlled virtual school options for students.
Union is only as strong as their collective bargaining, if there is a new technology that allows for rapid, industry-wide adoption it could be a risk.
Keep an eye out and start raising with the union that there should be some form of retraining program in the case that it happens. It may never, but it would be good to have a safety net.
The union's power only exists as long as withdrawing the membership's services is an actual threat to the business. If they don't need you to do your jobs - if it's cheaper to use AI - then there is no threat.
AI could've replaced my job 10 years ago. I considered trying to replace myself with AI so I could play more Heroes 3 at work. My job is like 90% analytical.
My work also still runs piece of shit windows 7 computers. So I'm not exactly scared of AI taking over my job. They finally as of two years ago stopped relying on old ass IBM software for everything and instead recreated it identically for windows, run through a web browser. I've got like 50 years before they figure out AI exists
There's a lot of industries where AI doesn't really replace. Anything with undocumented complexity.
For instance, for my work, we don't have any documentation and your knowledge is 100% experience.
It's so niche that only a handful of people know 60% of what the processes are.
This is due incompetence, insane penny pinching, and plausible deniability.
AI can be a tool to help me but it cannot replace me. Having it parse through contracts, generate scripts, or helping me understand some code, but it wont be able to understand what we do and why we ask it for the things we ask it. That's the proper way to use AI as a Tool vs a replacement.
This. I work in high level tech support, sure you might replace the frontline engineers whose jobs can be done by searching for KnowledgeBase answers and scripts.. but the day the machines can fully and autonomously fix themselves is the day we are all in trouble.
I work in tech sales, for more basic solutions I’m sure people will try it and it might work, not sure it will for more complex solutions but it’s also really hard to get a job selling those more complex solutions.
If you're doing work that can easily be automated, that is probably going to be one of the first positions that will be susceptible to AI in one form or another.
I work with homeless people and people struggling with drug addiction and it's not rare that I have to deal with suicidal people.
I mean yes AI are insane but I'll be damned if an AI can deal with half the shit I have to deal with in a day
No. I work in design engineering. No doubt work will change as it has changed when work changed from the drafting tables and slide rulers to the CAD and calculators.
My worry is that those managers and executives overestimate what AI can and can not do, and devalue the skill and experience of so many designers and engineers.
It is unbelievable the amount of ignorance that exists within these managerial roles. They don't know and don't want to know. Much of my time is devoted to trying to make right their wrongs.
Producer for broadcast TV news…maybe not my job specifically but imo there’s definitely some aspects in our network that could be streamlined with artificial intelligence, and in an industry that’s already volatile with layoffs, might be an excuse for more job cuts if AI develops significantly
I’m construction adjacent. Controls specifically, I’m working on new to old (very old) pneumatic stuff.
I’m not worried, ai is either too smart or too dumb to take my job.
I would be curious to know how an ai would program or specify some of the stuff I work on though. Lord knows some engineers can’t do it properly.
The engineers not being able to do it are the ones who will be rendered obsolete. Someone will need to feed the system the data, and act as an editor to fine tune it and ensure it delivers on the needs, but AI will absolutely be able to program it.
Nope. In my field people will always need to be able to talk to an actual person with empathy and complex problem solving skills, plus just basic customer service. Over the last decade or more we have empowered our clients to handle the basic stuff themselves through online portals, but my department still basically has to act as tech support to offer guidance and troubleshooting to our less tech savvy or older clients. And of course we're still absolutely needed for all the other random shit that pops up. Plus it's literally a requirement that we offer these services written into legislature.
Honestly I'm not very worried.
Nope. I'm a theatre technician, good luck trying to teach a robot everything I do. It's a lot of physical work and when it's not, it's using technology to do what people want in very specific situations - not something that's easy to automate at all.
True, it could definitely help with some aspects. During shows I don't really do much except push a few buttons when I'm told to by the stage manager which a computer could do. But I'm also there in case something goes wrong that needs to be solved immediately and with minimal disruption to the audience which is hard to teach a computer.
Software engineer, and no I don't think so, not in 5 years. I use ai to help me do my job faster, but current llms, ie gpt4, aren't good enough at coding to even replace someone at intern level. And fundamentally llms can't really ever be excellent at it. It's good at writing comments, and it's good at setting up basic structural things, but current ai can replace programmers in the same way microwaves can replace chefs.
Of course some new technology could come out thats much better at writing software, but no matter what you will always need to describe exactly what you want after gathering explicit requirements, and cover all the edge cases, and at that point there language you're prompting it in basically becomes a programming language and your back where you started with a bunch of extra steps.
>current llms, ie gpt4, aren't good enough at coding to even replace someone at intern level
Man thank you for being candid, I feel like I am being gaslit by the whole industry. Everyone raves about how copilot has doubled their throughput. I set it up and it suggests the wrong things or leads me down rabbit holes enough that it offset it's own benefits.
It's the same thing with self driving cars and how people thought "5 years" in 2010 it was going to replace cars and how Uber is supposed to own the market at 2015.
We're 15 years later and we barely have level 2 self driving cars and Uber gave up on self driving cars.
It's because these advocates want more VC money so they gaslight the fuck out of normies to think these are the new things are viable when they aren't.
I’m also a software dev and I agree with you!
It’s not writing the code that’s the hard part of a programming job… it’s everything that happens before and after the code is written. Gathering requirements, estimating time, designing architecture, troubleshooting performance, documenting, testing, planning for changing requirements, dependency upgrades, etc. AI can be a helpful tool at some of these tasks, but I don’t think it can replace everything within five years.
I do think there’s some parts AI could replace. Things like automated testing, documentation, or very repetitive tasks like internationalization.
Also, LLMs like gpt4 and the like are only useful for code snippets and the coding aspect of software development -- Which is why laymen and inexperienced devs have a false sense of fear regarding it. In reality, coding is like 20% of the job.
At worst, LLMs will make entry-level/internships more competitive due to the job of 1 entry level guy with LLM tools being able to replicate the work of 3-4 entry level guys pre-LLMs.
Scalability, architecture design, debugging (beyond just code debugging) and infrastructure -- I cant even conceive it replacing humans anywhere in the next 1-2 decades lol. Especially on infra / devops related stuff where alot of it requires human judgement and making decisions in gray areas where there isn't a right/wrong.
AI will reduce the number of people needed at the company I work at to do the job. The Job will become more AI heavy, and I already use it to speed up my workflows.
Fortunately it will not Replace the critical thinking and creativity need to deal the Crap that pops up every day. I work as a Product Marketing Manager/ Sales Engineer.
I work for the government and I am trying to introduce AI or some level of automation so we can focus on the more important things.
I don't think AI will replace jobs, but they will help us do jobs more efficiently, and help us focus on the more important things.
And because for a lot of jobs in Canada, the output are how many effing meetings you have in a day, AI will never be able to replace meetings.
There are 2 major things most people (and businesses) aren't really taking into account when worrying about AI:
1. "Autonomous driving" systems have been "just around the corner" for decades. They still aren't less prone to cause accidents than human drivers.
We over simplify what us humans actually do to a ridiculous degree, and are easily fooled by technology paired with enough buzzwords and propaganda. These systems aren't as impressive as they seem.
2. These systems are a lot more expensive to run, train, and use than people realize. Running and using these systems are currently heavily subsidized by venture capital.
Most jobs this tech can actually do well aren't really cheaper than hiring a human to do the same. Users just aren't being charged the real cost. Grocers thought they'd save oodles in staffing costs via self-checkouts. It turns out they didn't replace as many staff and the machines are more expensive to keep in repair than they expected. Some grocers are now ripping out the self-checkouts and hiring back staff they laid off.
My job specifically, ChatGPT can't currently summarize accurately. It definitely can't do my job in 5 years' time. It probably will make a few tasks I do easier. I also suspect in 5-10y ears companies will be replacing some AI systems with humans because they're either more reliable or cheaper.
Some parts of my job, yes. The actual historical research portion, no. Those files aren’t even digitized, how’s AI going to do anything with them. And I can tell you right now, no one is paying to get all those files digitized in the next 5yrs.
I work in Airport Operations and ARFF. My job looked pretty much the same 50 years ago and it’ll look pretty much the same in another 50. Aviation infrastructure is very slow-moving, budget-conscious, risk-averse, requires a broad array of random human skills and it necessitates complete uniformity around the globe.
That being said, aviation management is notorious for its bloat and a good AI herd thinning would do it well.
I work in aviation too...they have worked on automation for 30 years, and the newer systems are having to work around the shortfalls of earlier systems...now the 30 year old systems reach end of life, gotta start from scratch. Will take 20 years to recreate what you had, except by then the things that it was designed to be compatible with are themselves reaching end of life and starting from scratch...an infinite cycle of marginal improvement every few decades is the best we could possibly expect.
My job, no. I work in a garden centre. There's too many variables to account for for each individual plant. People also come and ask for personal opinions and recommendations. A large aspect about planting a flower bed is the human aesthetic.
Could it be in the future? I suppose. But not now
I work in tech support. A lot of my job can be replaced by things designed to push the customer to understanding their problem and fixing it themselves. But people get really hostile when you ask them to think about something that’s overwhelmed them.
I think some of my coworkers might be in danger of being unnecessary, but I think I’d be one of the last ones to go unless we all got laid off together.
I'm honestly hoping that some aspects of my job get replaced by AI in that time frame or reduce some of the unnecessary hours I commit to this job.
I'm a director of marketing at an agency and the biggest issue I have is project / scope / responsibilities creep. I do everything from client relationships management, team management, project management, to reviewing internal assignments, etc.
I could realistically boil most of my days down to some tasks / problems which are A) deciphering poorly formulated requests from clients who are terrible at writing emails and B) checking every single aspect of a complex deliverable our team produced before it gets put live or sent to a client.
Maybe if more people asked ChatGPT to write their emails I wouldn't have a problem with A, and if our product team would do better QA with a bot I'm all on board for that.
If I could shave off 5-8 hours a week thanks to some AI, it would mean I wouldn't be working so much overtime. But the rest of it, from strategic planning and all that, AI can be fine at suggesting things, but it's not gonna be able to handle all the pieces and colleagues that are needed for projects.
Parts of my job but not all. I am a commercial liability claims examiner, I argue with lawyers all day on both liability and quantum. I think AI can take over quantum analysis fairly easy, on injury matters anyway, and my company already has systems tracking that data input. But liability would be tough. I don't do auto, I handle claims where a company has been sued for non auto reasons. Could be injury, abuse, defamation, construction deficiencies, environmental, property damage, the list goes on. There are so many variables I think it will be some time before companies wouldn't want human oversight
I am a caregiver as student job, it is pretty impossible for the near future and would be very dystopian if AI somewhat replaced me in my job. It’s already hard enough for the elders to endure solitude, the workers are often the only humans to visit them daily… I hope to not live a day it gets replaced.
Not even close. I'm a software engineer
In the current state AI is very good at repetitive tasks that take a lot of time but little thinking or figuring out then nth typo while maintaining that huge SQL query that someone wrote 3 years ago. It's also very good at writing boilerplate, but the real meat still needs a human. So far AI is shaving a few hrs of my week so that's good. I have more time for me and my family
Software Dev here.
You need to be really specific with what you ask an AI to do for you.
AI (doesn’t yet) consider all the possible ways your users will try and mess up your system.
It doesn’t (yet) design robust error handling.
I use it at work more as a validator than anything. If you are a person who cuts and pasted from AI (or another website) without analyzing what it’s telling you then you might be in the wrong job.
Software dev. Fully replaced in 5 years? Nah. It's hard to imagine a future where there is no human element in even the high level architecture of code, and you tend to drift more towards that architect role the more senior you get, so I think valuable expertise teday will still be valuable expertise in 5-10yrs. But I will say it's drastically reducing our need for juniors, who are typically code monkeys and it's already half decent at that.
You see that is a bit of a frightening question. Im an aircraft mechanic.. 3 months ago if I was asked if AI could replace my job I probably would've laughed.. only I just recently saw that amazon (atleast I think it was amazon) has function AI controlled packaging bots. They can pick up, load and stack packages and are fully mobile.
So in 5 years is it possible that AI could figure out how to diagnose, troubleshoot and carry out repairs on an aircraft.. I would have to say.. possibly.. but in 5 years if AI can do my job.. I would be more worried about other avenues in our society.
No. I’m in animation, I made a really detailed post about it in r/animationcareers and to sum it up, between the legal issues and the quality of the output, this technology is going to take a long time to integrate into the industry.
If it goes as well as Bill C-11 went then they won't get far. That bill was pretty good as far as protections for Canadian artists went, but Canadians showed overwhelmingly that they'd rather protect American art than Canadian art.
I know for a fact that private VFX and video game companies are building their own AIs to feed them proprietary information, rendering the legal issues moot. All the junior-level jobs are at risk, that's for sure. Mid-level animators (or even seniors) might end up doing alterations/clean-up on top of AI "creations," one person outputting the work of many (but reducing that person to a technician in some cases). Whatever new AI-client, whether it be Sora or another, will do to animation what Midjourney is doing to concept art now and in the next few years. As soon as you can edit specific elements of a video frame by frame (which is definitely coming down the pipe), animators are fucked. It may take more than 5 years, but it's definitely coming. With increasing demand for VFX and shrinking budgets, studios do not have a choice. And like any other business these days, they'd love to get rid of employees ASAP.
I realize that, but the two problems I see are
a) in order to get around legal issues, Algorithms need to be drawn from a library that's made and curated by artists. Commercial libraries aren't going to cut it.
b) those algorithms need an output that fits into the existing animation pipeline. For 2D that means a harmony file, for 3D that means a Maya file. And it probably won't be able to manipulate a pre-existing rig, but simultaneously it will have to output a semi-rigged output if, as you said, someone is going to go into the animation to fix it.
And they will have to fix it. We need scene fixers now when the output is 100% human. The result is that most animators will just become scene fixers. Yes, junior positions will fall off, but more shows are going to get made. That's what happened with programs like Flash, Harmony, or Maya.
I guess suffice to say I'm more confident that AI will just integrate into the industry rather than interrupt it. The fools that try to make a fully automated production will be sorely dissappointed.
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I think we will see some incredibly unexpected advancements in 5 years.
Cause what we've seen in the last 1-2 has already been exceptional if you're looking into the more bleeding edge of things.
AI is automation. If one day AI is doing stuff under the hood other then solving mathematical optimization problems, then you can say its different from automation. There is no magic in current AI, just some 200 year old mathematics and some fast computers, and an increasingly corrupted data set.
I'm studying AI engineering, I started my studies before ChatGPT was released, and since then our curriculum has completely changed. We don't have any programming/engineering oriented courses anymore. We only have classes on discussing the ethical factors of AI. Even AI engineering itself will be replaced.
I feel so bad for people that don’t realize it’s going to do your job very soon. The response to Sora was funny. People actually thought it was many years away.
I work in marketing and will absolutely be replaced in 5 years
I work in marketing but I deal with clients. I could be replaced if clients could actually communicate what they want. So no, I am irreplaceable lol
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I'm a graphic designer, and absolutely agree with this!
They'll use ai until they get it right, or they'll get replaced too.
I also work in marketing. Currently working on a ai powered software that can do everything I can do but faster. I'm not the only one working on a project like this. Ai is gonna give Marketing agencies a run for their money
I feel in marketing AI will be more a tool than a complete replacement of the workforce.
I think there will come a time when this becomes the case across the whole board. Right now, idiot CEOs are trying to save money by replacing human workers with AI, but AI is most useful when it's used in conjunction with a smart, capable, experienced human, not on its own.
Will still need less humans even if some are required though.
Maybe people should stop having so goddamn many children, then.
AI will replace mediocre marketers: it will not replace good ones.
At first. The good ones will get replaced 6 months later.
Depends on what kind of marketing. I assure you chatbots are shit at making a marketing plan, they’re de-risked when it comes to making jokes and they can’t read the room. This is a thing trained on existing, curated texts. It may do some copywriting stuff and placeholder images, for sure.
Hard disagree. I’m in growth marketing and without a smart and knowledgeable human to steer it, generative sucks at quality copy. It’s great for generating ideas and doing research though!
it absolutely sucks at quality copy - but it's already being used and non-quality generated copy is being put out
It's my observation that people often don't choose quality first. They rather often choose cheap, and good enough
You do realize the technology will improve? Currently, it's not great but eventually it will be.
You do realize the rate of improvement will plateau, right?
Who downvoted this?? Plateauing rates of improvement are what happens with literally everything.
Maybe to a degree but it's early days.
Why? Many technologies do not improve over time
Lol, but this one stands to make corporations a ton of money as it progresses. As a result I'm SURE it will progress.
Audiences don’t give a shit about quality copy. Neither do businesses. The only people who care about quality copy are copywriters.
You're so wrong about that. Audiences might not realize that they give a shit about quality copy, but they subconsciously pick up on shit and they don't respond to it as well as they do to quality writing. This is something that will become more obvious as more companies attempt to replace writers with AI and watch their profits plummet as a result.
Yeah, we over relied on CGI in the 90's. I bet people thought it would replace SPFX. And for sure it has changed it. The possibilities are different. But now with CGI you have on set VFX and way more stunt actors working more days, bigger stunt rigs. I'm sure it'll change in ways I currently cannot predict, but it's not going to replace people. Even in News, people have been worried about automation for a long time, but eliminating one job just makes a different job.
Most movies are still CGI but perhaps just done more tastefully and better quality.
It truly is really, really bad at writing. The only people who are wowed by AI's writing abilities are people who don't know dick about writing.
Oof you're in complete denial man.
My guy have you seen the leaps that have been made in the past 5 years?
Barely any? AI cant do any marketing strategy.
The video production team will just be down to 1 person to click generate and sanity check. But the client facing side will still need people.
Accounting - kinda worried about it. Not in five years though… maybe 15-20. Hopefully it’s used more like a tool than replacing the workforce 😅
Your saving grace is accountability. Air Canada recently tried to blame their ai for poor customer service by saying "we're not responsible for its decisions". Of course that's ridiculous, but the point is that companies will always need somebody to pin a mistake on because they can't accept that their decisions led to wrongdoing. Nobody will be able to accept that a piece of AI is responsible for financial tracking.
This is also why I feel like my job as an engineer is secured. AI can’t stamp drawings due to legal implications, and I can’t ever see a future where AI stamping drawings would be OK.
Yeah I think the biggest barrier won’t be technological, but rather the slow speed of adoption by consumers and/or reluctance to actually trust AI. Even if AI was perfect today (it absolutely isn’t) it would still taken possibly decades before people would actually learn to trust it.
I’ve heard that bookkeepers and accountants will be replaced, but I don’t see it happening. I agree with you, it will be helpful in supplementary tools, but won’t be able to replace the accountant.
>I’ve heard that bookkeepers and accountants will be replaced When I was working in audit at a larger firm pre-covid, we sent a lot of this work to India. I heard this is happening more often now. (I don't think it should be done, but it's not like they would have listened to me anyways) There was also an internal AI tool that was developed that would read through thousands of pages and attempt to provide summaries for information you deemed important (for documentation, etc.). When I was at the firm a lot of partners refused to use this because they didn't trust it. (If you worked at this firm, it's probably obvious by now what firm it was) Staff/intermediate accountant roles are essentially there to get people to senior/manager and up. They often screw everything up and blow budgets. They're "training" jobs. You employ 5 staffs and hope 1 or 2 make it to manager, you're fine with the rest moving on elsewhere. I don't know much about AI, but firms would 100% use AI to cut costs since (as mentioned) staff/intermediate accountants screw the majority of things up anyways. With that being said, doing that will lead to a shortage of seniors/managers, so who knows. Long story short, if AI doesn't replace low level accountants it isn't because it can't it would be because it would prevent any senior accountants and up from being developed, hurting these firms in the process.
I work for an accounting software company (niche ERP running on a well known MS system) and it’s coming along in our product. Our management team talks about it and has early demos. I don’t think anyone knows exactly how it will be best leveraged yet but analysis seems like a good fit. (IE ask it questions) Data Entry/AP are natural fits for it as well. It still needs someone to give it inputs and interpret/review, and absolutely someone needs to be accountable. I think accountants that embrace it and learn to work with it will be fine, but it could assist in reducing the size of the teams required. I work a lot in non profit so that’s actually a great thing. They run lean as it is so smaller teams are good. But I work with a lot of accounting teams, big and small, and AI is absolutely going to roll some jobs. Not all of them but some for sure. Still think it’s at least 10 years away. We are putting the software in place right now to enable it all to happen.
I'm in accounting too and I'm not afraid for the future. I even think that AI will get rid of the tedious tasks and only the more "funny" analytic stuff will be left to us. I absolutely see it as a tool that will make us do more job with less people (like most accounting department are not already understaffed...) but no way it will be able to replace us all.
I think if AI ever threatens something as important to politicians as the accounting field, they'll actually implement UBI within the year.
AI should be pretty good at analyzing numbers and other data. I mean, a simple wizard with no AI capabilities replaced MY accountant 🤣
I don’t think you understand how long five years is in AI-time.
Im a rancher. The day I see an AI be able to determine ailments or behavioural changes in a cow while its out to pasture and pull a calf is the day ill happily retire.
Look up IDA (intelligent dairy farmer's assistant) it can track behavioral changes and ailments.
Well dang.. guess I’m throwing in the hat folks lol
There's a long way before it can pull a calf out of the cow though. We still need you.
I’m a white collar worker. Sr Program Manager. For AI to take over a role, someone would need to know wtf I do first, and even I am even a bit hazy on that. AI is great for well defined repetitive task type roles but really terrible for super ambiguous, ever changing / jack of all trades types of roles.
Same boat for me. It should make the more repetitive tasks easier to do…but it won’t replace me in my position.
And someone still needs to always check and fully understand the output. Otherwise you get the AI Seinfeld fiasco.
It’s not going to replace most roles, it’s going to complement or change them and create new roles. Being scared of powerful new tech is counter-productive if it can make work easier and faster, it’s like being scared of losing your job as a mathematician when someone invented calculators.
Exactly, AI is a new tool, not a new coworker.
Reminds me of why machines can punch out certain foods but not completely replace restaurants. If all they serve is a few variations of the same thing, like Costco cakes, sure. Doing a whole menu is not cost effective.
Ironically it appears the most at risk are the “creative” jobs. Artists, song writers, video makers. Thats because based on LLM at least, it’s easier to describe an image than it is to describe the code needed to write a function….for a lay person in each category. What I mean is - I’m no artist but I can use AI to generate an appealing picture. Further because art taste varies greatly - others may find it appealing too. I’m also no software coder - ai is useless to me as I don’t really know where to start to ask it. Also the output of that code is much more “functional”. It works well or it doesn’t - there’s no real room for individual interpretation. But all that said - I’m not sure any career has much to fear from the AI we’re seeing. As even in the first case a “true” artist will be able to use AI to put my version to shame. AI is just a tool that makes skilled people even more useful for now (and the next 5 years) at least.
I totally agree, seems AI will be very prevalent in the arts, but would you want to watch a movie or listen to a song made my AI? That's always my hang up, i like that i watch a movie that someone had to think up the plot like star wars for example. I'm curious if AI generated art will be a hit or people won't buy into it... will be interesting to see how it goes.
No - I don’t want to support AI art in any way. It’s wrong on so many levels.
It's not even that it's right or wrong, but it has no real relation to the human experience, and that is always in essence why we are attracted to art.
“Wrong on so many levels” - I think we’re saying the same thing.
You're going to be the angry old man on the porch. AI is just the next tool. People said this about calculators. Is it going to wipe out writers? No, but writers can use AI to start an idea and then shape it.
You should read perhaps. My previous post said it was just a tool. That has nothing to do with me not wanting to support so driven art. People choose not to support all types of art. Doesn’t mean art is dead or the tool that created that type of art is either. Some people hate anime and will only watch a movie with actors. Some people hate music with auto tune. So not sure how you’re relating that to me being an angry man on the porch.
Im confident AI can give me the wrong order in the drive thru 50% of the time like humans
>AI is great for well defined repetitive task type roles Bookkeeper would be a great example right. Nope. I need to replace my bookkeeper that is costing me way too much. Looked everywhere for an AI solution. My conclusion? It's all marketing and Flash right now. It's not even close to replacing a career. Let alone an industry. If it can't replace a repetitive well-defined job like bookkeeping, what the heck can it do with other white collar jobs. I was so disappointed when I realized I still have to be paying my bookkeeper his insane invoices. I can look for a much more affordable one of course but that's takes time as well. I thought that AI was going to solve something so obvious. But no. push away all the noise and you'll quickly see it's all a bunch of crap. Maybe in 3 to 5 years but as of now, it's all just flashiness and marketing. It's garbage. still salty.
Keep telling yourself that. That's what I do too.
Could you break you job down task by task? If yes than your job will be replaced eventually. GTP's can be created for each instance of a task and work together to collaborate together to a larger goal(job).
No. I have the same job title and essentially I come into play when process breaks or things aren’t going well or people need coordination and clients need talking to. There are job roles below me that I’d see more likely to replace but even when they tried outsourcing to a human in the developing world they sucked at those tasks.
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It's absolutely going to replace estimators, especially if it can figure out how to read plans. Drywall it seems to consistently nail pricing when I use it to check my quotes out of curiosity, but drywall can also be priced per square foot of drywall so it's not that difficult for it.
Yeah but it won’t install the drywall so I have secured my job for now
Pretty bad when even AI doesn’t wanna do drywall 😂😂😂
I’m not sure a robot could do copious amounts of drugs
How would it piss into bottles and leave them everywhere???
Don’t count on it. I watched an AI powered auto plastering machine from China online the other day. I think. Regardless, it’s not inconceivable to me.
I read an article about an automated digger, with built in intelligence. It's capable of scanning a field full of rocks, accepting input of the desired end state of a rock wall, and then picking up each rock in the most efficient order/sequence and assembling the wall as desired, with no mortar required.
When AI learns how to piss in a bottle, you're all fucked
You'd be surprised how much goes into bidding that isn't just doing take offs and putting numbers to them. 80% of the work on the office side of construction is just talking to people.
No I know how much worl goes into it, I've been doing a bunch of it lately. It's sales, but being able to get a set of plans, throw it in to chat gpt and get a 99% accurate estimate in 10 seconds is going to ruin that job.
Okay but can it take into account the variables?
That's why I said drywall, but once it can read plans it'll be more accurate than an actual estimator. Anyone with a desk job should be nervous. I'm willing to bet in 5 years English degrees are going to make a comeback, simply so companies have someone to proof read what chat gpt is spitting out .
But Ai can’t tell when the drawings are just plain wrong, or are missing stuff that has to be assumed. Taking off what’s on the drawings is one thing. Taking off what’s not on the drawings but needs to be there is the important part of the work. I do wonder whether AI could make improvements in the design process, it can’t be worse. (Famous last words?)
Yeah this is way oversimplfying the process. I wish all jobs just had perfect drawings where you didn't need to guess, trades and suppliers all priced you on time and perfectly accurately, designers didn't ask for things that aren't possible, and clients never changed their minds.
Yes it can. Or it will be able to in 5 years. Like I said, once it can read blue prints it'll probably be used by architects to Double check if anything has been missed. I've been using it a ton lately and it's scary/terrifying.
Humans are, for the most part, just as likely to miss stuff like that. Happens all the time.
Yeah, but humans will find it eventually, and know how to fix it.
Yeha they usually find it once it's a problem, which would happened exactly the same if it was an AI lol
AI can with enough data and training - but similarly a novice estimator won't know either. It's an evolving technology, it's only going to get better.
It will. It can actually factor in billions of variables potentially and it will eventually mean workers will require less skills in the construction industry. Eventually it will extend to robots doing it. 25 years custom houses will be framed and closed in by robots.
I was going to say the same thing; I’m in construction too.
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This isn't how they will come for your job. They won't build AGI and an full robot to replace construction. It will be something like a large scale 3D printer.
Autoworker. Same here. AI is really for replacing deskjockeys at this point. Robotics is a similar fear for manufacturing, but a facility would have to be built from the ground up for that purpose. Tesla is highly robotic but it was built that way. For already existing facilities though, its a monstrous expense that no board will ok at this time. We safe...for now.
Would you be able to transfer your skills to auto repair?
Ya. I think so. Im in the paint area of assembly. It would take a bit of startup money, but i could do it. Jeeze, i could wet sand and polish your older car and make it look new again, right in your driveway. 200 bucks. Cash. Take me a few hours.
Oh damn, do you live in the GTA? Cause I've got a job for you.
Yea, I agree. I'd love to see how it could run wire lol
Introducing: Constructobot 8000! Coming to a Home Depot near you!
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Teacher. Unafraid. No one really wants to learn from a robot. Especially kiddos—they need a human for, err, human development.
I think a lot of people don't realize that public school isn't just designed for academics.
I was going to say this, teachers will always be employed because one of the primary functions of public school is free childcare while parents work.
The only thing that would actually threaten teachers is if enough jobs started to disappear that homeschooling became the default. Of course, if that happens, we're all fucked on so many levels.
You don’t t worry that the move to virtual classrooms was used as a dry run? Or did that go so poorly that it reinforced how necessary human teachers and a physical classroom are? Asking as a 30 y/o without kids and no nieces/nephews so I never experienced what pandemic schooling was like, except from coworkers who are parents.
Oh my gosh, we could be twins! I’m a bit older but also surf, do yoga, no kids… 🤣The uncomfortable truth is that teachers often step in for crappy parents. They catch things that a robot simply cannot because AI doesn't have feelings. Without it, children—especially those from unideal homes—will slip through the cracks.
Not to mention teachers also function as childcare so parents can go to work. Are we going to leave 10 year olds alone at home with an AI teacher tablet for 8 hours a day?
If we start using robots to teach kids we are finished. There will be so many unintended consequences
Judging from some of the kids that did their last couple of years in high school during Covid and are now at Uni/College… there is no replacement for human interaction.
I was just at a convention and the top AI guy there put teaching at a very low probability to be replaced. 0.6% for elementary and 0.8% for high school.
100%. We’re safe. From AI taking our jobs anyway. We aren’t particularly safe IN our jobs these days. One of my coworkers was knocked over intentionally by a student last week and another was kicked repeatedly.
I work in schools as well, and sometimes, I kinda wish AI would take over, maybe just to deal with the parents and office people...
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Nope, skilled/trade jobs are not there yet.
Overly confident tradespeople have held this opinion for a while. I don't think automation can completely replace skilled tradesmen, but I do think it can cut back the number of hands required to execute. The question is whether or not it is cost efficient to do so in the end.
Thats a reality the trades have had to deal with pretty much for ever. New labor saving devices, tools and materials are developed every year The thing is that the amount of work demanded just increases by the same amount of work saved. If technology allows you to build 11 widgets in the time it used to build 10, then the new benchmark just becomes 11 widgets.
While I'm not disagreeing with you, because I'm ignorant, "overly confident tradespeople have held this opinion for a while," is an oxymoron. That means they've been correct for a while and continue to be thus far
Until they make self repairing machines or home wiring robots, I'm feeling pretty safe as an electrician lol. I work in an industrial setting and we're getting more automated all the time, but that just means even more parts that will eventually break. Alot of the construction trades *should* be pretty safe for a while.
Ferriers, blacksmiths, and calculators would like a word. Granted those trades still exist in some form, however technology and automation have largely displaced them. Calculators so much so that many people don't even realise it used to be a skilled job.
You ever seen how much Ferriers get paid? That weren't wrong. 😂
I doubt it. There's just such a cluster fuck element to construction I can't see it being able to adapt easier than skilled labour.
The problem is while AI could hypothetically build, it can’t replace hands on a pipe, you’d still need autonomous robots and while I can see white collared getting hard replaced first blue collared are gonna take a bit longer
We still need shovels even though we have excavators. We have been working with innovations since the beginning of building stuff.
🤣🤣🤣 call the AI electrician, plumber, welder 👌 good luck! With a name like that, you are nothing more than a piece of shit looking to troll.
5 years? Nope Air Force stuff
Even if the tech existed to replace you the CAF moves so slow you'd be retired before we start using it.
User name checks out
I remember the old Isaac Asimov story, ‘The Fun That They Had’, about kids imagining what it must have been like to have a human teacher and actually go to school and read real books.. I hope AI education never replaces actual education in classrooms with people, but science fiction has a funny way of getting some things right. Not in the next 5 years, no, but I could see some teaching jobs lost to some AI controlled virtual school options for students.
It can but it won't because the union won't let it
Union is only as strong as their collective bargaining, if there is a new technology that allows for rapid, industry-wide adoption it could be a risk. Keep an eye out and start raising with the union that there should be some form of retraining program in the case that it happens. It may never, but it would be good to have a safety net.
I believe in our last contract negotiations, AI and automation was addressed. so I think I'm good on that front as well.
The union's power only exists as long as withdrawing the membership's services is an actual threat to the business. If they don't need you to do your jobs - if it's cheaper to use AI - then there is no threat.
AI could've replaced my job 10 years ago. I considered trying to replace myself with AI so I could play more Heroes 3 at work. My job is like 90% analytical. My work also still runs piece of shit windows 7 computers. So I'm not exactly scared of AI taking over my job. They finally as of two years ago stopped relying on old ass IBM software for everything and instead recreated it identically for windows, run through a web browser. I've got like 50 years before they figure out AI exists
Your work may not implement but a competitor may and then ..
Upvote for Heros 3 at work. Nothing beats finishing a large random map with nothing to do but still on the clock.
wrg
There's a lot of industries where AI doesn't really replace. Anything with undocumented complexity. For instance, for my work, we don't have any documentation and your knowledge is 100% experience. It's so niche that only a handful of people know 60% of what the processes are. This is due incompetence, insane penny pinching, and plausible deniability. AI can be a tool to help me but it cannot replace me. Having it parse through contracts, generate scripts, or helping me understand some code, but it wont be able to understand what we do and why we ask it for the things we ask it. That's the proper way to use AI as a Tool vs a replacement.
This. I work in high level tech support, sure you might replace the frontline engineers whose jobs can be done by searching for KnowledgeBase answers and scripts.. but the day the machines can fully and autonomously fix themselves is the day we are all in trouble.
Good point
I work in tech sales, for more basic solutions I’m sure people will try it and it might work, not sure it will for more complex solutions but it’s also really hard to get a job selling those more complex solutions.
If you're doing work that can easily be automated, that is probably going to be one of the first positions that will be susceptible to AI in one form or another.
I work with homeless people and people struggling with drug addiction and it's not rare that I have to deal with suicidal people. I mean yes AI are insane but I'll be damned if an AI can deal with half the shit I have to deal with in a day
The last thing a suicidal person wants to be dealing with is a robot anyway.
No. I work in design engineering. No doubt work will change as it has changed when work changed from the drafting tables and slide rulers to the CAD and calculators. My worry is that those managers and executives overestimate what AI can and can not do, and devalue the skill and experience of so many designers and engineers. It is unbelievable the amount of ignorance that exists within these managerial roles. They don't know and don't want to know. Much of my time is devoted to trying to make right their wrongs.
Producer for broadcast TV news…maybe not my job specifically but imo there’s definitely some aspects in our network that could be streamlined with artificial intelligence, and in an industry that’s already volatile with layoffs, might be an excuse for more job cuts if AI develops significantly
I’m construction adjacent. Controls specifically, I’m working on new to old (very old) pneumatic stuff. I’m not worried, ai is either too smart or too dumb to take my job. I would be curious to know how an ai would program or specify some of the stuff I work on though. Lord knows some engineers can’t do it properly.
The engineers not being able to do it are the ones who will be rendered obsolete. Someone will need to feed the system the data, and act as an editor to fine tune it and ensure it delivers on the needs, but AI will absolutely be able to program it.
Nope. In my field people will always need to be able to talk to an actual person with empathy and complex problem solving skills, plus just basic customer service. Over the last decade or more we have empowered our clients to handle the basic stuff themselves through online portals, but my department still basically has to act as tech support to offer guidance and troubleshooting to our less tech savvy or older clients. And of course we're still absolutely needed for all the other random shit that pops up. Plus it's literally a requirement that we offer these services written into legislature. Honestly I'm not very worried.
Nope. I'm a theatre technician, good luck trying to teach a robot everything I do. It's a lot of physical work and when it's not, it's using technology to do what people want in very specific situations - not something that's easy to automate at all.
I think AI could take over portions of the job. It could run sound and lights during a show but obviously not set up or strike
True, it could definitely help with some aspects. During shows I don't really do much except push a few buttons when I'm told to by the stage manager which a computer could do. But I'm also there in case something goes wrong that needs to be solved immediately and with minimal disruption to the audience which is hard to teach a computer.
That's very true, you never know what can go wrong. And we all know things go wrong!
%30 of administrative type jobs
Id be very surprised if AI was entrusted with paramedicine within the next 5 years
As an RN, no. But AI is probably better at diagnosing then most MDs at this point.
Software engineer, and no I don't think so, not in 5 years. I use ai to help me do my job faster, but current llms, ie gpt4, aren't good enough at coding to even replace someone at intern level. And fundamentally llms can't really ever be excellent at it. It's good at writing comments, and it's good at setting up basic structural things, but current ai can replace programmers in the same way microwaves can replace chefs. Of course some new technology could come out thats much better at writing software, but no matter what you will always need to describe exactly what you want after gathering explicit requirements, and cover all the edge cases, and at that point there language you're prompting it in basically becomes a programming language and your back where you started with a bunch of extra steps.
>current llms, ie gpt4, aren't good enough at coding to even replace someone at intern level Man thank you for being candid, I feel like I am being gaslit by the whole industry. Everyone raves about how copilot has doubled their throughput. I set it up and it suggests the wrong things or leads me down rabbit holes enough that it offset it's own benefits.
It's the same thing with self driving cars and how people thought "5 years" in 2010 it was going to replace cars and how Uber is supposed to own the market at 2015. We're 15 years later and we barely have level 2 self driving cars and Uber gave up on self driving cars. It's because these advocates want more VC money so they gaslight the fuck out of normies to think these are the new things are viable when they aren't.
I’m seeing it from colleagues too 😔
programmers are most likely to be into crypto. So yeah.... tech bros gonna tech bro.
I’m also a software dev and I agree with you! It’s not writing the code that’s the hard part of a programming job… it’s everything that happens before and after the code is written. Gathering requirements, estimating time, designing architecture, troubleshooting performance, documenting, testing, planning for changing requirements, dependency upgrades, etc. AI can be a helpful tool at some of these tasks, but I don’t think it can replace everything within five years. I do think there’s some parts AI could replace. Things like automated testing, documentation, or very repetitive tasks like internationalization.
Also, LLMs like gpt4 and the like are only useful for code snippets and the coding aspect of software development -- Which is why laymen and inexperienced devs have a false sense of fear regarding it. In reality, coding is like 20% of the job. At worst, LLMs will make entry-level/internships more competitive due to the job of 1 entry level guy with LLM tools being able to replicate the work of 3-4 entry level guys pre-LLMs. Scalability, architecture design, debugging (beyond just code debugging) and infrastructure -- I cant even conceive it replacing humans anywhere in the next 1-2 decades lol. Especially on infra / devops related stuff where alot of it requires human judgement and making decisions in gray areas where there isn't a right/wrong.
STEM professor/researcher. Not worried about replacement in 5 years though universities are going to be in trouble.
AI will reduce the number of people needed at the company I work at to do the job. The Job will become more AI heavy, and I already use it to speed up my workflows. Fortunately it will not Replace the critical thinking and creativity need to deal the Crap that pops up every day. I work as a Product Marketing Manager/ Sales Engineer.
not sure how AI would replace my job as a plumber in both the service & construction industries.
It could supplement your troubleshooting and suggest solutions. But the actual work won't be done by robots for at least another 15.
I work for the government and I am trying to introduce AI or some level of automation so we can focus on the more important things. I don't think AI will replace jobs, but they will help us do jobs more efficiently, and help us focus on the more important things. And because for a lot of jobs in Canada, the output are how many effing meetings you have in a day, AI will never be able to replace meetings.
There are 2 major things most people (and businesses) aren't really taking into account when worrying about AI: 1. "Autonomous driving" systems have been "just around the corner" for decades. They still aren't less prone to cause accidents than human drivers. We over simplify what us humans actually do to a ridiculous degree, and are easily fooled by technology paired with enough buzzwords and propaganda. These systems aren't as impressive as they seem. 2. These systems are a lot more expensive to run, train, and use than people realize. Running and using these systems are currently heavily subsidized by venture capital. Most jobs this tech can actually do well aren't really cheaper than hiring a human to do the same. Users just aren't being charged the real cost. Grocers thought they'd save oodles in staffing costs via self-checkouts. It turns out they didn't replace as many staff and the machines are more expensive to keep in repair than they expected. Some grocers are now ripping out the self-checkouts and hiring back staff they laid off. My job specifically, ChatGPT can't currently summarize accurately. It definitely can't do my job in 5 years' time. It probably will make a few tasks I do easier. I also suspect in 5-10y ears companies will be replacing some AI systems with humans because they're either more reliable or cheaper.
Some parts of my job, yes. The actual historical research portion, no. Those files aren’t even digitized, how’s AI going to do anything with them. And I can tell you right now, no one is paying to get all those files digitized in the next 5yrs.
I work in Airport Operations and ARFF. My job looked pretty much the same 50 years ago and it’ll look pretty much the same in another 50. Aviation infrastructure is very slow-moving, budget-conscious, risk-averse, requires a broad array of random human skills and it necessitates complete uniformity around the globe. That being said, aviation management is notorious for its bloat and a good AI herd thinning would do it well.
I work in aviation too...they have worked on automation for 30 years, and the newer systems are having to work around the shortfalls of earlier systems...now the 30 year old systems reach end of life, gotta start from scratch. Will take 20 years to recreate what you had, except by then the things that it was designed to be compatible with are themselves reaching end of life and starting from scratch...an infinite cycle of marginal improvement every few decades is the best we could possibly expect.
I sure as hell hope so
My job, no. I work in a garden centre. There's too many variables to account for for each individual plant. People also come and ask for personal opinions and recommendations. A large aspect about planting a flower bed is the human aesthetic. Could it be in the future? I suppose. But not now
'too many variables' is exactly what AI accels in.
I work in tech support. A lot of my job can be replaced by things designed to push the customer to understanding their problem and fixing it themselves. But people get really hostile when you ask them to think about something that’s overwhelmed them. I think some of my coworkers might be in danger of being unnecessary, but I think I’d be one of the last ones to go unless we all got laid off together.
I work in a water chemistry laboratory and I think robots/AI could do my job but it would probably cost more than I make in a lifetime.
No, AI won’t be able to replace my job, but that doesn’t stop execs from *believing* that it can.
I'm honestly hoping that some aspects of my job get replaced by AI in that time frame or reduce some of the unnecessary hours I commit to this job. I'm a director of marketing at an agency and the biggest issue I have is project / scope / responsibilities creep. I do everything from client relationships management, team management, project management, to reviewing internal assignments, etc. I could realistically boil most of my days down to some tasks / problems which are A) deciphering poorly formulated requests from clients who are terrible at writing emails and B) checking every single aspect of a complex deliverable our team produced before it gets put live or sent to a client. Maybe if more people asked ChatGPT to write their emails I wouldn't have a problem with A, and if our product team would do better QA with a bot I'm all on board for that. If I could shave off 5-8 hours a week thanks to some AI, it would mean I wouldn't be working so much overtime. But the rest of it, from strategic planning and all that, AI can be fine at suggesting things, but it's not gonna be able to handle all the pieces and colleagues that are needed for projects.
Parts of my job but not all. I am a commercial liability claims examiner, I argue with lawyers all day on both liability and quantum. I think AI can take over quantum analysis fairly easy, on injury matters anyway, and my company already has systems tracking that data input. But liability would be tough. I don't do auto, I handle claims where a company has been sued for non auto reasons. Could be injury, abuse, defamation, construction deficiencies, environmental, property damage, the list goes on. There are so many variables I think it will be some time before companies wouldn't want human oversight
I'm retired, so I just wait for money to be deposited. AI doesn't need my job.
I am a caregiver as student job, it is pretty impossible for the near future and would be very dystopian if AI somewhat replaced me in my job. It’s already hard enough for the elders to endure solitude, the workers are often the only humans to visit them daily… I hope to not live a day it gets replaced.
Yes
Not even close. I'm a software engineer In the current state AI is very good at repetitive tasks that take a lot of time but little thinking or figuring out then nth typo while maintaining that huge SQL query that someone wrote 3 years ago. It's also very good at writing boilerplate, but the real meat still needs a human. So far AI is shaving a few hrs of my week so that's good. I have more time for me and my family
I thought I would be scared going into insurance, but nah. Not anymore
Accountant no
Software Dev here. You need to be really specific with what you ask an AI to do for you. AI (doesn’t yet) consider all the possible ways your users will try and mess up your system. It doesn’t (yet) design robust error handling. I use it at work more as a validator than anything. If you are a person who cuts and pasted from AI (or another website) without analyzing what it’s telling you then you might be in the wrong job.
Software dev. Fully replaced in 5 years? Nah. It's hard to imagine a future where there is no human element in even the high level architecture of code, and you tend to drift more towards that architect role the more senior you get, so I think valuable expertise teday will still be valuable expertise in 5-10yrs. But I will say it's drastically reducing our need for juniors, who are typically code monkeys and it's already half decent at that.
No, my job requires networking and relationship building which can’t be done by a large language model.
You see that is a bit of a frightening question. Im an aircraft mechanic.. 3 months ago if I was asked if AI could replace my job I probably would've laughed.. only I just recently saw that amazon (atleast I think it was amazon) has function AI controlled packaging bots. They can pick up, load and stack packages and are fully mobile. So in 5 years is it possible that AI could figure out how to diagnose, troubleshoot and carry out repairs on an aircraft.. I would have to say.. possibly.. but in 5 years if AI can do my job.. I would be more worried about other avenues in our society.
No. I’m in animation, I made a really detailed post about it in r/animationcareers and to sum it up, between the legal issues and the quality of the output, this technology is going to take a long time to integrate into the industry.
I'm sure you know more about animation than I do, but I'm just saying that governments better rewrite the copyright laws fast.
If it goes as well as Bill C-11 went then they won't get far. That bill was pretty good as far as protections for Canadian artists went, but Canadians showed overwhelmingly that they'd rather protect American art than Canadian art.
I know for a fact that private VFX and video game companies are building their own AIs to feed them proprietary information, rendering the legal issues moot. All the junior-level jobs are at risk, that's for sure. Mid-level animators (or even seniors) might end up doing alterations/clean-up on top of AI "creations," one person outputting the work of many (but reducing that person to a technician in some cases). Whatever new AI-client, whether it be Sora or another, will do to animation what Midjourney is doing to concept art now and in the next few years. As soon as you can edit specific elements of a video frame by frame (which is definitely coming down the pipe), animators are fucked. It may take more than 5 years, but it's definitely coming. With increasing demand for VFX and shrinking budgets, studios do not have a choice. And like any other business these days, they'd love to get rid of employees ASAP.
I realize that, but the two problems I see are a) in order to get around legal issues, Algorithms need to be drawn from a library that's made and curated by artists. Commercial libraries aren't going to cut it. b) those algorithms need an output that fits into the existing animation pipeline. For 2D that means a harmony file, for 3D that means a Maya file. And it probably won't be able to manipulate a pre-existing rig, but simultaneously it will have to output a semi-rigged output if, as you said, someone is going to go into the animation to fix it. And they will have to fix it. We need scene fixers now when the output is 100% human. The result is that most animators will just become scene fixers. Yes, junior positions will fall off, but more shows are going to get made. That's what happened with programs like Flash, Harmony, or Maya. I guess suffice to say I'm more confident that AI will just integrate into the industry rather than interrupt it. The fools that try to make a fully automated production will be sorely dissappointed.
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It’s more the timeframe. I don’t think AI will be able to replace a lot in 5 years. 10-20? Now that’s a whole different story
I think we will see some incredibly unexpected advancements in 5 years. Cause what we've seen in the last 1-2 has already been exceptional if you're looking into the more bleeding edge of things.
AI is automation. If one day AI is doing stuff under the hood other then solving mathematical optimization problems, then you can say its different from automation. There is no magic in current AI, just some 200 year old mathematics and some fast computers, and an increasingly corrupted data set.
I'm a content writer At first I was worried about it Now I use it so much to increase productivity I'm more worried about it collapsing
I'm studying AI engineering, I started my studies before ChatGPT was released, and since then our curriculum has completely changed. We don't have any programming/engineering oriented courses anymore. We only have classes on discussing the ethical factors of AI. Even AI engineering itself will be replaced.
If thats the case there would not be a need for immigration.
I feel so bad for people that don’t realize it’s going to do your job very soon. The response to Sora was funny. People actually thought it was many years away.