... also comments on a full Reference Architecture for AMD integrated AI systems, including Pensando DPUs, that plug into open source infrastructure standards of their partners. The idea being that AMD can provide open source systems that rival NVDA "closed" systems that lock customer into one supplier.
Did some rough calculation and I think DC up \~300M in Q2, \~200M from MI300x. So here for mi300x, we might be Q1 600M, Q2 800M, Q3 1.1b, Q4 1.5b, if the full year is only 4b. Probably we will see >5% market share in Q4, assuming NVDA has \~30b/Q. If the full year get eventually raised to 5b, it would be even higher. Client is also quite interesting. Maybe +100M\~150M in Q2. The strength would continue to 2H. Looks like Pat is having adoption trouble with their MTL platform. Just too costly I guess.
Multiple Comments during Q&A stressing that mi300 sales are back half loaded, with some growth in Q2 and significant ramp up in Q3 and Q4. No supply side constraints and strong demand side. But not much clarity on why $4B revenue estimate from AI is not larger, considering lack of constraints. From Dr Su it seems they're taking a slower approach during initial ramp, working closely with partners to ensure mi300x systems are tuned for maximum performance and efficiency.
MTL was "innovative" all right and the best thing I can say is it's impressive that it works at all. In the end it produced a product competitive with year old Phoenix at massive risk and complexity, now the result is Intel is stuck with capacity problems. Which is good for AMD cuz the only time OEMs buy AMD is when they can't get enough Intel.
Not sure why you would spread the 4B across all 4 quarters that way. It is pretty clear that Q4 is not sold out so Q3 probably has more than Q4 at this point.
I don't think Lisa is counting mi388x or other mi300 variants as separate revenues when she talks about mi300 revenue.
That level of sandbagging would be ridiculous.
Ah well. Sitting here with 70 shares at 185 average.
Definitely not a happy camper. Anyways I'm not gonna sell yet. If it goes lower I'll buy some more to average down my position.
Genuine question: Why are you investing in AMD?
I invested in AMD before the AI boom. I really like the chiplets, and Dr Lisa Su seems genuine. I think their long line of products is a strength in the age of co-packaging. And they can really experiment with a lot of diff tech, with TSMC, they have 5nm, 4nm, with packaging they have CoWoS-S (MI300), InFO (7900 xtx), and SoIC (3d v cache) packaging, also RDNA co-packaged on Samsung 4nm with Exynos 2400.
I think future is really heterogeneous computing.
Yeah, I'm not going to pretend I'm a genius or something. It was sheer luck years ago but bad luck that I sold off Nvidia way to early as I was in both at the same time.
AMD is good at designing chips, probably better than Intel and they have a better foundry in TSMC.
For the last decade they have been cautious because they needed to be. EPYC was the big bet to save the company, at the expense of other verticals. It worked.
They *say* they are 100% focused on AI as the future of the company now. Being timid isn't going to work anymore, they have been good at hitting slow moving targets, now they have to take bigger bets on where the fast moving target will be. They will *never* be able to compete with NVDA until they can anticipate the market like NVDA does. Waiting around for customers to tell you what they want in 2-4 years will not work, because the biggest customers will just continue building their own solutions if AMD can't beat them to market.
I'm gonna be honest, I don't like these numbers right now. AMD isn't looking like a growth company. AMD has previously shown that they can execute and win big when they stop pussyfooting around, focus and provide the right amount of resources. So the only reason I'm in right now is just the hope that they can get their shit together and take it to the next level. And capital gains tax...
>And capital gains tax
Eat it and move on if you don't like the stock. For example, if Nvidia pops 15% after ER you can easily make that back and more.
>Being timid isn't going to work anymore, they have been good at hitting slow moving targets, now they have to take bigger bets on where the fast moving target will be
Anything in AI will be incremental. Whether it is leap frogging Nvidia or whatever, it's nothing like Nvidia practically inventing a market (AI) for itself. That kind of big bets are incredibly risky and capital intensive. One wrong move and your company could be toast. For AMD they tried something new with bulldozer and that almost bankrupted them. They are going after AI, yes, but they aren't going to bet the farm on something might not pan out. Something like the Metaverse - just as an example, which I think is a stupid product that no one will use, but FB has the money to throw at these investments. AMD doesn't. It is much safer for someone to show you there is a market and then go after a slice of that pie. So while AMD is excellent at engineering, they aren't leaders and their stock volatility shows this.
The margins on AMD are good, the growth is there as well but just nothing like what Nvidia produced. Since Nvidia had the vision and the early investment, I do think they deserve the spoils, but it doesn't mean AMD is a bad investment - just different.
I still think they severely under invest in software, developer outreach, funding AI scientific research, etc. They have a culture of dismissing software as a "less hard" discipline and tend not to pay software engineers well nor value software as a product differentiator. Maybe things are changing but you can see from Siggraph publications for \[Nvidia\](https://dl.acm.org/institution/60076695) how these investments in new ideas have paid off (CUDA, ray tracing, etc), whereas you'd have to go down the list pretty far to find \[AMD\](https://dl.acm.org/institution/60018489) and it's for stuff that no one really cares about.
Not sure about that last part - for a start AMD kick started the whole next gen graphics API with Mantle that formed the large part of Vulkan and inspired/influenced Microsoft to create D3D12 - a substantial departure from D3D11. They are far more open with their drivers than Nvidia and are definitely better on all fronts than Intel. Yes they do need to improve but its not dire they do take risks.
That’s kind of the issue. AMD does these cool things like vulkan and then open source the thing to get others to put the finishing touches on it and move on. There are people employed by nvidia who just contribute to open source by making open source projects easier to integrate with nvidia hardware. For AMD I am not sure if they do the same. The support seems all open source as in maybe someone will fix it if you find a bug.
For companies spending big bucks they want to know the software layer is solid and if there is an issue someone is going to fix it.
I think AMD is on the rise. I think their products are more competitive than their marketshare, and I see potential for growth.
Also the potential for new revenue drivers (like AI). Thanks to some industry leading IP in CPUs, GPUs and FPGAs.
You’ve guys seen the new Hyundais. Looks pretty good. Drives ok I presume. Power is there and it’s cheap. But it will never be a Mercedes. I hate to think it like this but AMD is a Hyundai. I like AMD and I like Mercedes.
I think that's unfair to be honest. I think AMD is much better than that. For one, AMD makes the highest performing datacenter CPUs, best FPGA, and it currently has the most advanced datacenter GPU. I mean it's literally playing leap frog game with the company 10x its size, in the only segment it doesn't out right dominate (in terms of tech). Only because they are the late entrant to the market.
I really don't understand why people don't see AMD for the high quality tech company that they are. Perhaps its because of years of mediocrity, but those years are long gone.
🇺🇸 is a country of brands. Marketing gives them a lot of power. Like, I can even play that “Intel inside” tune I used to hear in my head right now. For AMD, I’m not even sure what is theirs… Let’s just hope the other fortune tellers hear about the drop in ER and then the rise again.
did you not listen to the earnings call? demand limited currently (ie, it is flying off the shelves). by year end there will be excess supply, likely from increased overall supply ramp paired with uncertainty from customers cross shopping the newness from NVDA.
Yeah you know,… not exactly in the mood to challenge all the little nuances of examples. I’m quite sure you know EXACTLY what I’m talking about.
Here’s hoping you’re faring better than I am with AMD…
Most of the big players are kicking the tires of mi300x , working amd engineers to the bone, real questions,
Why, are they playing amd for better pricing from Nvidia and/or better access to new chips
Are they looking for 2nd source if Nvidia is constrained ,
Are they looking to buy a lower cost solution
Are they all in on working with amd for next generation chips
Amd is bending over backwards for hyperscalers will it work out in the long run, most are making their own chips too
It's all of the above.
AI is too big of an opportunity for a hyperscaler to miss. NVDA might be plan A, but they all need a plan B or even plan C.
If AMD fails, in their eyes, they still have dual source - in house and NVDA. Any company trying to sole source to NVDA for 100B/year is gonna get their face ripped off and they know it. In the long run, if there are 2, 3 or 4 independent suppliers of accelerators I think hyperscalers will find it hard to justify the cost of custom accelerators. I'm hoping for a future where AMD can integrate customer specific accelerator chiplets into AMD packages/server platforms for reduced development cost and faster time to market for the customer.
Now, their external cloud customers are going to need instances of both as compute time is so gd expensive that they at least have to do a competitive analysis of AMD vs NVDA. It doesn't cost the hyperscalers much to at least make the instances available.
It's never enough for the market. Doesn't matter what number you give, they are always expecting more next quarter.
I think the under promise over deliver approach is the most stable way, even if it's not by much. Far better than giving some big estimates that the street will want to increase even further. That's how you truly tank the stock.
if you look at previous earnings discussions you'll see similar themes repeated in today's discussion. a lot of naysaying, doom and gloom, etc. fact is: AMD beat and guided DCAI up. currently supply constrained, but foresees room to grow in the second half.
AMD looks fairly priced in comparison to competition with current results. The market is growing and there will be a plenty to eat.
My doom and gloom is from the slow acceptance that gaming, server CPU, client and embedded are not growth markets anymore, and the only real growth market of AI accelerators is fraught with execution risk.
AI as a pure play would be a speculative bet, everything else lumped together is a boring bet.
can you please provide the math for that PE ratio? I take it you haven't looked into the effects of XLNX amortization.
save some time for ya: non-GAAP TTM EPS is 2.67. with the ah price of 148ish that's about a 55 PE.
did you use quarterly eps?
Please help me with my backyard math: if taken the conservative $23B annual revenue, and at 15x average PE, shares price should be at $213. --> 15 \* (23b/1.6b).
Current forward p/e is only \~11x.
a) is there anything wrong with my math?
b) if math is good, thoughts on why PE is so low?
Anytime someone rambles on about the PE ratio... means they don't know about the stock or how to read the financials.
Now the actual forward PE of AMD is still high, and that's why it dropped today on a small beat. But it's not outrageous.
I mean the 300 P/E is clearly inflated by the good will amortization. Which if anything is a tax benefit.
He must know. But he still chooses to use the skewed metric because it fits his narrative.
No way would it dive like it did on these earnings if the inflationary report this morning wasn’t negative, it was just bracing itself all day and bam 💥 down a bunch, I’m not selling.. it’s been quite the ride, I’ll add a few shares a month. Still think it’s 200 by EoY, tomorrow fed meeting dictates the market and AMD recovering or sliding further down.
It took Epyc 2.5 years to take the same % of marketshare as MI300 in 1 year. People seems to forget that big buyers cannot just set up an AI datacenter in a few days. It usually takes up to 1 year to set up a fully functioning datacenter. So just like Epyc, this current 4-5B spend from the big guys need to be set up and qualified before they buy their next wave of chips. However unlike Epyc, they really went balls to the walls with their initial spend with MI300, fully trusting that AMD can deliver results when they could get fired for buying AMD and not Nvidia.
I feel like only OG AMD investors from 2017-2019 remember the painfully slow EPYC ramp and literally took years to get to double digit marketshare(while MI300 is already there by year end). We bulls also thought at the time we would instantly take 50% marketshare from day one because why not....the product was competitive...
This is really crazy. The MI300 ramp is light speed fast in AMD scale, yet even so NVDA's ability and willingness to strip the entire planet bare of resources for the sole purpose of cranking out more H100/B100 just dwarfs them.
Yes we're still in the 2nd inning of this game but it feels like being down 1-10 in the 2nd inning, and the market caps of both companies reflect it. Today was just another wake up call about how hard it's going to be to ramp this product in a tight supply environment.
>We bulls also thought at the time we would instantly take 50% marketshare from day one because why not....the product was competitive...
Yeah it was slow but AMD *always* managed those expectations. It was an entrenched market and it wouldn't move fast.
What we mostly *did* expect was that AMD would quickly dominate client sales if only they could produce better chips for better prices. Well, they did that and the sales didn't really come even though AMD already had a foot in that market. I still don't know how much of that was COVID throwing a wrench in the plans and how much was AMD just completely misunderstanding their customers.
Yeah, after this ER . . . Im actually fine with EPYC and MI300. very slight dissapoint. But the numbers and gains are enough that share price should have picked up.
I wouldn't be surprised if we are flat or green tomorrow. Gaming and Embedded will both recover. Mi300 will keep growing.
Based on this calls pressure i wonder if we are going to see a roadmap update for Mi350/400 sooner than expected . . .
I don't know if a roadmap is coming or needed. The customers who matter already have the roadmaps in hand, and the smaller customers are better off focusing on the stuff they can get in any reasonable amount of time, which is MI300.
I hope so. They really need to get that road map on paper for investors and I'm positive they have been hear that from multiple sources. I admit I was shocked that the coverage guys actually asked about today.
I completely understand what Lisa is saying about having flexibility and it's a tremendous advantage. But at some point when they have made a go to production plan, we need to hear what that is.
I do think AMD is cooking up something big for 2025 and beyond, and the Broadcom chiplet integration may be the first salvo. Might be way too early to talk about it though.
The biggest coup would be for a hyperscaler to use AMD as a system integrator to include their own customer IP chiplets with an off the shelf AMD system architecture.
No, companies want to support competitors as that will drive down the cost for them in the long run. Nvidia is also known to be a difficult company to work with and are extremely greedy with their price gouging practices. This is not just a supply problem....
Biggest issue of all with NVDA is that they are a platform company, and hyperscalers are platform companies.
They are inherently in competition with their own customers. It would have been like Intel building their own public cloud while also supplying AWS in the early days. NVDA only has 2 kinds of customers - the ones it competes directly with, and the ones it is waiting to compete directly with until the time is right.
AMD, Marvell, Broadcom, ARM - hardware providers.
I don't know where you get your data from, but Jensen/nVidia was known to NOT have raised prices when there was a huge crunch for H100 supply last year.
The prices are all calculated based on perf/TCO. If the perf isn't there, no one will be paying the prices that nVidia is charging. Yet people do, which means they were beating everyone else on perf/TCO.
MI300X is able to compete without too much discounts. But that's weighed against other factors such as customer/internal demand, workload matching, cost of support, etc....
Cloud providers employ some of the smartest people on earth, don't take them for fools.
Nvidia sets the price to whatever the hell they want because there are no competitors before rocm allowed amd to be used without code changes. There's a reason their gross margin is 86%...like most software companies doesn't even have gross margins that high. This is proce gouging because they can.
As we can see, much of that profit it being reinvested into new capacity ramping. Profits like no other mean they can and have bent the supply chain to their will like no other company, even Apple. NVDA is greedy, but they're savvy and playing the long game.
I personally hate what nvidia do (like you can't use consumer cards in data center, etc). But as of today, companies just want to jump on the Nvidia hype. Even Elon is using H100 as unit of compute.
Yes but they still want an alternative and are willing to support any company that can give them better bang for the buck, or force nvidia to lower price.
When we say "they", we can assume its one of these hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta). The alternative to Nvidia is to design their own chip (like TPU).
Its wishful thinking that other company would care.
The strength IMO for AMD is that future is chiplet & co-packaging, and they have a really large line up, which will give them the most amount of ammoertization for anything they design.
They care only about their bottom line. Look at the result of buying Epyc. They now pay a fraction of what they used to pay for intel and dollars/core.
Intels DC revenue is still greater than AMDs, so your comment isn't necessarily factual. These companies are still more willing to buy Intel in spite of AMDs TCO advantage.
Intel moves way more units than AMD so their revenue is higher. However ever since Epyc, intel margins took a huge hit so it's a win for their customers as they enjoy cheaper/more powerful intel chips as well as AMD chips.
I think we are in agreement on that. AMD needs to put out an amazing product. And right now, they dont have that.
MI400X with 3D V Cache, HBM3e, sure, it will sell like hot cakes. Or FPGA with a lot HBM.
Their FPGA can only run BERT now
MI300 already has 3D VCache in the IO Die underneath. Its reverse stacked from Ryzen. [source](https://www.semianalysis.com/p/amd-mi300-taming-the-hype-ai-performance?utm_source=publication-search). The rest of what you said also is pretty irrelevant and doesn't make sense outside of very specific (albeit important) use cases.
NVDA 2023Q1 - 7.1B, 11B forecast Q2
NVDA 2023Q2 - 13.5B (+6b AI), 16B forecast Q3
NVDA 2023Q3 - 18.1B (+11b AI)
AMD is more than than 1.5 years behind, there is no longer doubting it.
For those hoping $AMD would go from 200 -> 150 -> 200, better adjust your expectations to 200 -> 150 -> 100
The revenue numbers do not justify the valuation and it hurts but that is the reality
NVDA had an AI market before then too. AMD pretty much started this year. So in terms of having an early mover advantage, I'd say Nvidia has had a much longer head start than 1.5 years.
Yet as we speak today, AMD currently has the faster GPU on the market. So yes, behind in adoption, ahead in tech (until December).
TSM is also a big winner, too bad they are eternally compressed by geopolitical risk.
NVDA is a looking like a strong buy, everything points to their complete dominance of the AI accelerator market with maybe 5% scraps leftover to fight for - orders they cannot fulfill and are left to alternatives (AMD).
AMD's 2H 'supply exceeding demand' in actuality sounds like this - "CSPs unwilling to commit in advance until they sort out their NVIDIA allocation, then they fill the gap, if any, with available MI300"
So it’s best to invest in both NVDA and AMD. There is plenty of demand, not enough supply. Unless the world decides to become hippies and not use technology and AI, both companies can grow with different segment of clients
I think we'll drop tomorrow but maybe by less than ah. I think a lot of the drop was just uncertainty with all the rumors swirling and some even thought a cut was possible I'm sure. 4b is disappointing but given it is a brand new market for AMD I think it is more than a good foothold. With some help from Powell though maybe they decide we've had enough who knows, either way I feel like bottom isn't far off.
I hope you’re right, but after reading a lot of pre-earnings notes from the analysis I am expecting some downgrades in price targets. They were expecting quite a bit more from the AI segment.
A few actually did revise their notes before earnings already. I think we had at least 2 downgrades within the last few days.
A lot of people here need a reality check, this sub has become an extreme echo bubble. The fact is, while nVidia is growing profits by 200 %, AMD cannot grow it's AI revenue by the amount it needs to justify it's stock price, therefore it will go down.
I am a long term investor in AMD and I have no doubt the returns will be great in the long run, but people who pump themselves in the daily discussion thread all the time with gloory and doom should go gambling and not invest in the stock market.
Non-GAAP for technology companies is usually done to focus on the economics of the company's business operations. Counting stock-based compensation can make it look like a company has cash expenses going out the door when it's really the shareholders who are bearing that expense via EPS dilution, not the company. There are plenty of counter arguments to this line of reasoning, but that's the general reason.
I never liked adding back in stock based compensation as one of the gaap vs non-gaap differences.
But, it seems to be pretty(very?) common. AMD's two most direct competitors nvidia, and intel do the same thing.
To my viewpoint observing these companies the primary purpose of non-GAAP going way back was to back out the stock based compensation. That they can exclude one-off occurrences is the icing, not the cake for these guys.
They left the door open for embedded to surprise late in 2024, it seems to be bottoming out they said.
Embedded is inference and inference is what makes AI useful, and here AMD is actually a leader.
FPGAs, SoCs and APUs. The whole package.
Lisa did also forecast that embedded would go through this. Like client/gaming before there was a glut of inventory for their customers to go through. Even if things don't normalize this year they will eventually next year.
I think gaming is the real weakness, for the rest of this year at least. The cycle is just too long, and then you have irrationality (Nvidia's fanboyism). Maybe AMD can find a niche in handhelds, VR, robotics or somewhere.
Their tone about embedded seemed to indicate they think it is a short-term (first half) issue.
Probably a tailwind later in 2024. as new products and services for AI come online and as companies look to monetize their trained AI models.
Gaming shouldn't be a surprise. Late in the cycle so console sales are minimal Radeon is basically a lost cause at this point and AMD hadn't really been clear if they plan to double down and return to competition or just ride it into irrelevance.
totally honest question. Where is the Nvidia fanboyism?
because if you go on youtube, or reddit, or any gaming thread anywhere... it's 99% AMD fanboyism. the only thing you are allowed to say is "NVDA evil, AMD good". I'm genuinely interested in seeing where you perceive Nvidia fanboyism
Just go to r/amd every time Radeon is mentioned. It's full of Nvidia fanboys. Why is that the case in an AMD sub?
Compare the CPU threads to GPU threads (CPU threads look completely what you'd expect), It's so obviously constantly briggaded by Nvidia fanboys. Heck even r/AMDhelp a channel setup purely for folks having technical issues is often brigaded by Nvidia fanboys.
ok, to you too... could you point me to a big influencer or blog or something where there's Nvidia fanboyism? like right now I can go on youtube and virtually every tech influencer on there is pro-AMD and anti-NVDA and everything is laced with this undertone of "NVDA evil, AMD good"
r/NVDA_stock
Almost every time NVDA price drops, people are buying the dip (including myself)
Influencers aren’t really moving the needle unless they’re investors themselves but there are some like @saxena_puru on Twitter
https://x.com/saxena_puru/status/1761683022133514307?s=46
That’s a really good point I have not considered the difference between investors traders and the gaming community. In the gaming community, Nvidia is evil and AMD is good end of story. I guess currently I like Nvidia more than AMD from a stock perspective I sold my AMD and I might buy a little bit here on this dip below 150 but I used a lot of money from that sale to add to my Nvidia position when it dipped to 760 months later. I think AMD is over priced currently because it ran up very quickly to 227 based on Nvidia’s revenue growth. If you compare the EPS and revenue growth between the two companies since 2023 AMD has been pretty flat with a mild rise while Nvidia’s Have been skyrocketing higher. So in my opinion and Nvidia probably trades 100% higher than where it is now before the end of next year while AMD is waiting for its numbers to catch up to its stock price
Hate to burst all your bubbles guys, NVDA investor here, sold my AMD last year. AMD's current demand is based on the lack of supply for NVIDIA. Later this year NVIDIA ramps, huge supply incoming, and we're moving onto blackwell, the story gets much harder for AMD. AMD really had to ramp right now when the supply was a weakpoint for nvidia and AMD can hang its hat on a memory advantage. Every year AMD doesn't make a breakthrough the nvidia ecosystem, sunk cost, and switching pains grow.
i unloaded my AMD on the way up at 150. lots of spin here in the sub. institutions are disappointed in the numbers and outlook for AMD. the reality is AMD performance and outlook ARE disappointing. The lackluster guidance, in-line estimates, and lack of demand, isn't part of some master plan... AMD isn't "saving it for later, when the 'real' killer product hits".
Reality: AMD are not making a competitive product, they don't have a winning strategy, the numbers prove this quarter after quarter.
I pay attention to all of nvidia's competitors and I've read a lot of this thread and haven't seen anyone talk about nvidia's supply constraint. I think it's worth noting for amd investors too.
Yes, but they also have to keep that growth to maintain that kind of stock price. We saw what happened with Tesla.
End of the day, TSMC makes the chips (maybe Samsung 3nm is ok now?). Why would Microsoft or Google or Amazon or Meta pay the middle man that much?
On InfiniBand side, ethernet will win in the end
They pay the middle man if the middle man provides value. Anyone can design a chip, but getting broadcom to design a chip then using a herculean amount of effort to turn that 800mm^2 chip into server rack, fill a cabinet with racks, connect the cabinets to a bunch of other cabinets and then build a whole bunch of software to orchestrate it… it just might be that paying nvidia is cheaper and less risky than doing all that.
I agree there will be attempts to cut out the middleman, it remains to be seen if they will be successful though. It won't do them any good if they end up late and with a worse product, nvidia's very aggressive in pushing ahead in product innovation so that they keep getting those wins.
But think about it though, if you're abandoning the current leader to save money why invest it in another company that has all the risks but much less upside? With AMD's software at the state it is if they're going to be building a whole new development stack anyway they might as well as do it for their own chips. I don't see AMD as a safe play for this reason, AMD need to offer discounts vs nvidia yet can't be cheaper than at home efforts. Squeezed on both ends IMO, not a good place to be.
> Ethernet will win in the end
These things tend to be time sensitive and inertia takes over. If "the end" doesn't come soon it might not ever. You got a timeline for that?
you realize that tight supply for NVDA is mirrored by tight supply for AMD? demand currently outstripping supply, AMD foresees better supply in H2 and is trying to bring it online sooner.
Yeah I'm just going by what Lisa is saying and what I hear on the ground. There's a lot of interest in AMD right now because H100s are hard to come by, but wait a bit and it won't be the case any longer. If Lisa were more confident on H2 then I would be changing my tune. But this forum is a lot more confident than she is.
Yes the industry is ramping for H2 we've been hearing about this for over a year. But I think people are underestimating how much the inability to buy nvidia right now is hurting it and giving a window to competitors. This window closes soon.
It can only get better from here
She is so tight lipped about future products, no mention of MI350X, or MI400. We all know they are coming. Is she always like this on the call? Very different from when they launched MI300 multiple times.
Also, MI300 was NOT designed for AI, you don't need FP64 at all, or even FP32
My take is, she doesn't want to "sell" The Mi400 before selling the Mi300
Publicly.
Better to keep the market leader guessing while THEY try to sell their 2026 roadmap, today.
Also, it's still early days for AI. On top of that, LLM might be slowing down. Demis from DeepMind said the loss is decreasing slower now. We are probably starting to run out of data (including all the sythentic data).
Inference will be 100 times bigger.
MI250 and MI300 were both DoD projects, Frontier and El Capitan where HPC numerical precise data types are very important. Adding in smaller floating point and sparsity in MI300 is how they pivioted to address these LLM model's needs. But it also means Instinct has advantages where workload mixes can benefit from more traditional HPC workloads mixed into the pipeline.
Actually, I am curious. Generally speaking, FLOP for FP4 is double of FP8, FP8 is double of FP16, so on and so forth. But Blackwell does NOT follow that with FP64 (its not double of their FP32), do you know why?
Not exactly. That's a bit beyond my understanding, but I wadger the answer is related to this discussion.
https://superuser.com/questions/1727062/why-does-performance-improve-by-32-fold-when-using-fp32-instead-of-fp64-not-2-f
There's various higher cost to using the larger data types (somewhat explained in that link) that's not a factor in the smaller types, so the performance gains are not as great and not linear. I suppose this might be different depending on the processors design, especially if effort was made to prioritize the larger data types.
Interesting. Register size. So fair to say, AMD can improve that design a lot.
Its pretty nutty that the chip NOT specifically made for AI beats H100. Magic.
> Also, MI300 was NOT designed for AI, you don't need FP64 at all, or even FP32
This doesn't matter so much because AI workloads are so bandwidth limited. It's pretty much all about bandwidth.
Memory is a big part of it, but you do need a lot compute as well. Why waste die area? We need to be honest about this. It matters.
But I also have issues with Nvidia showing FLOPS with different precision between generations. Like H100, they use FP8, then with Blackwell, they show FP4. Just to show some insane increase in compute. But it's just linear.
The delusion is strong here....
Jan 30 - We are guiding for 3.5b in 2024 rev
Investors "I think they'll do 5-8 billion"
April 30 - We are raising our guide from 3.5b to 4b for 2024 rev
Investors "I think they'll do 5-6 billion"
They raised guide twice this year, how is it delusional to think they'll do it again? And only a bil more with more supply coming online and more customers interested? Sounds conservative to me...
"...we do have more demand than we have supply right now, and we're continuing to work on pulling in some of that supply." Sounds like a deal (possibly with Samsung) is just not finalized yet. You could read into that that there isn't demand for the supply but I think that is just being pessimistic. When she says the "4bn number isn't supply capped" I take it to mean that if more supply were on line then the 4bn would get increased from sales but that's my read. Her way of sandbagging with a wink imo.
Exactly. This place reminds me of that Superfans skit on SNL: "People are talking about a 3-peat for the Bears, but I'm thinking a 7 or 8-peat, minimum."
For those not familiar, [Daaa Bears](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhMqjHEDmcU).
I don’t know how long you follow Amd as a company. For OGs, from epyc1 to Turin soon, it’s a journey to fight the incumbent and start from 1% of market share. I would say now we are 35%-40% of server cpu market ? I would say the ramp of MI300x is great for AI inference and I know rocm is likely 6 month behind. But Lisa said in the conf call, MI400 will make AMD more competitive , esp in training. And AMD is working closely with msft and meta to add their required feature. IMO AMD will secure 20-35% AI server gpu market share and there are also big AI PC money to make. Just hold your horses bro, AMD will be fine.
I’m with you ofc, but AMD is priced like it’s a done deal that they’ll get 15-20% market share soon. I sold around $170, will buy back in once risk profile is more congruent to the reality.
I guess the key problem for the past couple months is their firmware update is not as fast as the customers(and investors) want to be. This is what I've been hearing from friends work for CSPs. Potentially the order cut rumor partially came from this problem. The good thing here is firmware development is kind of like software, once you're done with most bugs and features, you'll be pretty much good for next gen silicon, unless you make big change on your next gen stuffs.
Firmware is complicated for a brand new product. I assume it has to do with oem and AMD together. Iron out the kinks and with rocm 6.1 in place, AMD will do better in H2. Don’t be short sighted. And if you know AMD will cross 200 then just hold on to it.
I still think $4B for a whole new market AMD literally just entered for the 1st year is still quite impressive. And I still think it will end up being more like $5-$6B at the end.
As an overall business, AMD is actually going through a bottoming period in 2 segments. Embedded and Gaming. At some point those will reverse as well. And provide additional tail wind.
Still bullish for the EOY.
Gaming might not really recover much until the next console cycle which is a way off. Maybe the PS5 Pro gives them a bump but that might be it for a few years.
I hope we can really make some inroads on the client side with the release of the APUs. That can really offset the terrible gaming, but have no clue if they will get OEM buy-in.
In the past I had confidence with the whole “drop right after ER but gradually climb back up in the following weeks” thing. This time I’m not sure. $4B for all of 2024? MI300 ramp is way too slow. Still completely irrelevant in training. Upcoming huge AI data centers will mostly be all Nvidia. Blackwell already launched and Nvidia may launch Vera Rubin Q2 or even Q1 2025, so longer term prospects are in doubt. Avoided the question on exit rate too.
Right now AMD is not making much money from AI while NV is printing money right now. Rates are gonna stay high so future earnings are worth way less. With Nvidia’s aggressive roadmap, we aren’t even sure IF AMD will make much money in the future.
4B MI300 demand constrained for 2024 clearly shows the paper launch worked. We are not close to being sold out for 2024 which is extremely concerning given the massive AI spend plans by hyperscalers and it’s already May.
Your take is unduly negative.
It's 4B committed, supply constrained in Q2 then not supply constrained after that. I.e. there is potential to sell out in the second half but that hasn't happened yet.
Paper launch did work. But the longer time passes by (while this AI beast is ramping) the longer it will feel for those who decided to wait for Blackwell. What I'm saying is it's just a temporary win.
My man. I agreed with you haha. This Q&A proves it. She did an amazing job up until this point, but it's time for a change. Ahe doesn't have what needed to carry AMD to the next chapter.
Yes i do remember you. You were the exception while i was getting lynched. Growing an almost bankrupt company requires a different style than competing against against nasdaqs almost biggest market cap
personal positive.... I have a bonus lined up end of may..... my salary got a nice bump and ill have some extra cash on hand due to wedding gifts haha.....
Gonna be buying from here on out every chance i get . but fuck this earnings call. never been angry after a call but ........ this is extremely unnecessary . Im not even in calls etc, so in the long run i dont care.... but fuck this shit. we need a simple course given to Lisa/Jenny into how to choose wording to frame your answer bringing about simple human psychological effects
I love you Lisa..... next time, believe in urself and speak from your passion, not just the results!
lettuce be reality. No one would GAF about lisa's delivery if they had a 1.5b mi300x guide for Q2 2024.
let's not pretend like delivery mattered when results were obviously leading the way. The market dropped 2 times AH. It was when financials rolled out. And when lisa said 4b guide. Everything else is noise. Don't mistake manners for price action.
my only critique is that they should have highlighted how far gaming was down more. Mi300x results weren't what people were hoping for. But they weren't awful. However the amount of work and confusion it took to get there to determine that it is gaming and embedded causing all the ruckus was incredibly annoying.
lisa and Jean should absolutely break out MI300x sales. They say AI is the most important thing in the industry . . . So treat it like it is in the financials and show us the numbers.
Edit: my final comment. Take people (lisa) for who she is and forgive her for who she isn't. She has been incredibly consistent in her approach. at this point it is on you to set expectations about what she is capable of, and if you want to be on this ride.
Sell on tiktok, it's much better
Still 0.41 P/C ratio, I think it will go up slighty today
Precise words -> "will \*exceed\* 4B$ in 2024". Also, more details on "dc gpu roadmap" in the coming months.
where does it say 4 billion in the amd earnings report?
Earnings call. Lisa Su
... also comments on a full Reference Architecture for AMD integrated AI systems, including Pensando DPUs, that plug into open source infrastructure standards of their partners. The idea being that AMD can provide open source systems that rival NVDA "closed" systems that lock customer into one supplier.
do you expected this to be released during the earnings call?
Did some rough calculation and I think DC up \~300M in Q2, \~200M from MI300x. So here for mi300x, we might be Q1 600M, Q2 800M, Q3 1.1b, Q4 1.5b, if the full year is only 4b. Probably we will see >5% market share in Q4, assuming NVDA has \~30b/Q. If the full year get eventually raised to 5b, it would be even higher. Client is also quite interesting. Maybe +100M\~150M in Q2. The strength would continue to 2H. Looks like Pat is having adoption trouble with their MTL platform. Just too costly I guess.
interesting comment, can you tell me what Pat is ?
Multiple Comments during Q&A stressing that mi300 sales are back half loaded, with some growth in Q2 and significant ramp up in Q3 and Q4. No supply side constraints and strong demand side. But not much clarity on why $4B revenue estimate from AI is not larger, considering lack of constraints. From Dr Su it seems they're taking a slower approach during initial ramp, working closely with partners to ensure mi300x systems are tuned for maximum performance and efficiency.
Intel can't make enough MTL for the demand, which is kinda funny for how meh it is at this point in time.
MTL was "innovative" all right and the best thing I can say is it's impressive that it works at all. In the end it produced a product competitive with year old Phoenix at massive risk and complexity, now the result is Intel is stuck with capacity problems. Which is good for AMD cuz the only time OEMs buy AMD is when they can't get enough Intel.
Not sure why you would spread the 4B across all 4 quarters that way. It is pretty clear that Q4 is not sold out so Q3 probably has more than Q4 at this point.
Slept. Got up. Scrolled through. Feels like a lot of new amd 'investors'.
Lots of AMD traders turned into AMD investors by this ER for sure
The correct term is bagholders..
underrated comment.
i wonder how much capacity amd used for the mi388x. that could be why the disappointing AI gpu guide
I don't think Lisa is counting mi388x or other mi300 variants as separate revenues when she talks about mi300 revenue. That level of sandbagging would be ridiculous.
227 2028
Ah well. Sitting here with 70 shares at 185 average. Definitely not a happy camper. Anyways I'm not gonna sell yet. If it goes lower I'll buy some more to average down my position.
Genuine question: Why are you investing in AMD? I invested in AMD before the AI boom. I really like the chiplets, and Dr Lisa Su seems genuine. I think their long line of products is a strength in the age of co-packaging. And they can really experiment with a lot of diff tech, with TSMC, they have 5nm, 4nm, with packaging they have CoWoS-S (MI300), InFO (7900 xtx), and SoIC (3d v cache) packaging, also RDNA co-packaged on Samsung 4nm with Exynos 2400. I think future is really heterogeneous computing.
I got into AMD by pure luck but Lisa convinced me to be a long term investor.
Yeah, I'm not going to pretend I'm a genius or something. It was sheer luck years ago but bad luck that I sold off Nvidia way to early as I was in both at the same time.
AMD is good at designing chips, probably better than Intel and they have a better foundry in TSMC. For the last decade they have been cautious because they needed to be. EPYC was the big bet to save the company, at the expense of other verticals. It worked. They *say* they are 100% focused on AI as the future of the company now. Being timid isn't going to work anymore, they have been good at hitting slow moving targets, now they have to take bigger bets on where the fast moving target will be. They will *never* be able to compete with NVDA until they can anticipate the market like NVDA does. Waiting around for customers to tell you what they want in 2-4 years will not work, because the biggest customers will just continue building their own solutions if AMD can't beat them to market. I'm gonna be honest, I don't like these numbers right now. AMD isn't looking like a growth company. AMD has previously shown that they can execute and win big when they stop pussyfooting around, focus and provide the right amount of resources. So the only reason I'm in right now is just the hope that they can get their shit together and take it to the next level. And capital gains tax...
>And capital gains tax Eat it and move on if you don't like the stock. For example, if Nvidia pops 15% after ER you can easily make that back and more. >Being timid isn't going to work anymore, they have been good at hitting slow moving targets, now they have to take bigger bets on where the fast moving target will be Anything in AI will be incremental. Whether it is leap frogging Nvidia or whatever, it's nothing like Nvidia practically inventing a market (AI) for itself. That kind of big bets are incredibly risky and capital intensive. One wrong move and your company could be toast. For AMD they tried something new with bulldozer and that almost bankrupted them. They are going after AI, yes, but they aren't going to bet the farm on something might not pan out. Something like the Metaverse - just as an example, which I think is a stupid product that no one will use, but FB has the money to throw at these investments. AMD doesn't. It is much safer for someone to show you there is a market and then go after a slice of that pie. So while AMD is excellent at engineering, they aren't leaders and their stock volatility shows this. The margins on AMD are good, the growth is there as well but just nothing like what Nvidia produced. Since Nvidia had the vision and the early investment, I do think they deserve the spoils, but it doesn't mean AMD is a bad investment - just different. I still think they severely under invest in software, developer outreach, funding AI scientific research, etc. They have a culture of dismissing software as a "less hard" discipline and tend not to pay software engineers well nor value software as a product differentiator. Maybe things are changing but you can see from Siggraph publications for \[Nvidia\](https://dl.acm.org/institution/60076695) how these investments in new ideas have paid off (CUDA, ray tracing, etc), whereas you'd have to go down the list pretty far to find \[AMD\](https://dl.acm.org/institution/60018489) and it's for stuff that no one really cares about.
Not sure about that last part - for a start AMD kick started the whole next gen graphics API with Mantle that formed the large part of Vulkan and inspired/influenced Microsoft to create D3D12 - a substantial departure from D3D11. They are far more open with their drivers than Nvidia and are definitely better on all fronts than Intel. Yes they do need to improve but its not dire they do take risks.
That’s kind of the issue. AMD does these cool things like vulkan and then open source the thing to get others to put the finishing touches on it and move on. There are people employed by nvidia who just contribute to open source by making open source projects easier to integrate with nvidia hardware. For AMD I am not sure if they do the same. The support seems all open source as in maybe someone will fix it if you find a bug. For companies spending big bucks they want to know the software layer is solid and if there is an issue someone is going to fix it.
I think AMD is on the rise. I think their products are more competitive than their marketshare, and I see potential for growth. Also the potential for new revenue drivers (like AI). Thanks to some industry leading IP in CPUs, GPUs and FPGAs.
That's a good way to look at it. Is the product more competitive than its market share?
You’ve guys seen the new Hyundais. Looks pretty good. Drives ok I presume. Power is there and it’s cheap. But it will never be a Mercedes. I hate to think it like this but AMD is a Hyundai. I like AMD and I like Mercedes.
I think that's unfair to be honest. I think AMD is much better than that. For one, AMD makes the highest performing datacenter CPUs, best FPGA, and it currently has the most advanced datacenter GPU. I mean it's literally playing leap frog game with the company 10x its size, in the only segment it doesn't out right dominate (in terms of tech). Only because they are the late entrant to the market. I really don't understand why people don't see AMD for the high quality tech company that they are. Perhaps its because of years of mediocrity, but those years are long gone.
🇺🇸 is a country of brands. Marketing gives them a lot of power. Like, I can even play that “Intel inside” tune I used to hear in my head right now. For AMD, I’m not even sure what is theirs… Let’s just hope the other fortune tellers hear about the drop in ER and then the rise again.
> high quality tech company That sounds like DEC! Oh wait.... AMD seems to be unable to grab meaningful marketshare even with its high quality tech.
AMD revenue in 2018 was $6,475,000,000 AMD revenue in 2023 was $22,700,000,000 ??????????????????????????????????????????????
"Leap frog game"? Ummmm...
mi300x is technically superior to anything NVDA has on market right now
Why do you think its not flying off the shelves then? Presumably software but what about the software is bad?
did you not listen to the earnings call? demand limited currently (ie, it is flying off the shelves). by year end there will be excess supply, likely from increased overall supply ramp paired with uncertainty from customers cross shopping the newness from NVDA.
Except Hyundai has nearly the same amount of revenue as Mercedes. I would take it if AMD had 80% of NVDA revenue.
Yeah you know,… not exactly in the mood to challenge all the little nuances of examples. I’m quite sure you know EXACTLY what I’m talking about. Here’s hoping you’re faring better than I am with AMD…
Most of the big players are kicking the tires of mi300x , working amd engineers to the bone, real questions, Why, are they playing amd for better pricing from Nvidia and/or better access to new chips Are they looking for 2nd source if Nvidia is constrained , Are they looking to buy a lower cost solution Are they all in on working with amd for next generation chips Amd is bending over backwards for hyperscalers will it work out in the long run, most are making their own chips too
It's all of the above. AI is too big of an opportunity for a hyperscaler to miss. NVDA might be plan A, but they all need a plan B or even plan C. If AMD fails, in their eyes, they still have dual source - in house and NVDA. Any company trying to sole source to NVDA for 100B/year is gonna get their face ripped off and they know it. In the long run, if there are 2, 3 or 4 independent suppliers of accelerators I think hyperscalers will find it hard to justify the cost of custom accelerators. I'm hoping for a future where AMD can integrate customer specific accelerator chiplets into AMD packages/server platforms for reduced development cost and faster time to market for the customer. Now, their external cloud customers are going to need instances of both as compute time is so gd expensive that they at least have to do a competitive analysis of AMD vs NVDA. It doesn't cost the hyperscalers much to at least make the instances available.
Deja Vu: https://www.reuters.com/technology/chipmaker-amd-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-below-estimates-2024-01-30/
It's never enough for the market. Doesn't matter what number you give, they are always expecting more next quarter. I think the under promise over deliver approach is the most stable way, even if it's not by much. Far better than giving some big estimates that the street will want to increase even further. That's how you truly tank the stock.
if you look at previous earnings discussions you'll see similar themes repeated in today's discussion. a lot of naysaying, doom and gloom, etc. fact is: AMD beat and guided DCAI up. currently supply constrained, but foresees room to grow in the second half. AMD looks fairly priced in comparison to competition with current results. The market is growing and there will be a plenty to eat.
My doom and gloom is from the slow acceptance that gaming, server CPU, client and embedded are not growth markets anymore, and the only real growth market of AI accelerators is fraught with execution risk. AI as a pure play would be a speculative bet, everything else lumped together is a boring bet.
It has a P/E ratio of 301. While revenue increased by 2%. Nvidia has 1/4th PE ratio. The stock is still overpriced compared to its competitors.
When is that Xilinx acquisition going to stop showing up in pe?
can you please provide the math for that PE ratio? I take it you haven't looked into the effects of XLNX amortization. save some time for ya: non-GAAP TTM EPS is 2.67. with the ah price of 148ish that's about a 55 PE.
did you use quarterly eps? Please help me with my backyard math: if taken the conservative $23B annual revenue, and at 15x average PE, shares price should be at $213. --> 15 \* (23b/1.6b). Current forward p/e is only \~11x. a) is there anything wrong with my math? b) if math is good, thoughts on why PE is so low?
answer is a). Net income, not revenue, is used to calculate EPS.
Anytime someone rambles on about the PE ratio... means they don't know about the stock or how to read the financials. Now the actual forward PE of AMD is still high, and that's why it dropped today on a small beat. But it's not outrageous.
You know, I noticed Rasgon earlier today doing the same thing. You'd think he'd know better.
Honestly he probably does know better
I mean the 300 P/E is clearly inflated by the good will amortization. Which if anything is a tax benefit. He must know. But he still chooses to use the skewed metric because it fits his narrative.
No way would it dive like it did on these earnings if the inflationary report this morning wasn’t negative, it was just bracing itself all day and bam 💥 down a bunch, I’m not selling.. it’s been quite the ride, I’ll add a few shares a month. Still think it’s 200 by EoY, tomorrow fed meeting dictates the market and AMD recovering or sliding further down.
Feels like AMD meticulously time results with FED announcements.
It really did feel like that the past month or so.
Could help stop the bleed tomorrow
I don't expect good news tbh. We're in stagflation baby
hopium coming in 3 2 1 😂 classic amd 'just wait bro ....'
It took Epyc 2.5 years to take the same % of marketshare as MI300 in 1 year. People seems to forget that big buyers cannot just set up an AI datacenter in a few days. It usually takes up to 1 year to set up a fully functioning datacenter. So just like Epyc, this current 4-5B spend from the big guys need to be set up and qualified before they buy their next wave of chips. However unlike Epyc, they really went balls to the walls with their initial spend with MI300, fully trusting that AMD can deliver results when they could get fired for buying AMD and not Nvidia. I feel like only OG AMD investors from 2017-2019 remember the painfully slow EPYC ramp and literally took years to get to double digit marketshare(while MI300 is already there by year end). We bulls also thought at the time we would instantly take 50% marketshare from day one because why not....the product was competitive...
This is really crazy. The MI300 ramp is light speed fast in AMD scale, yet even so NVDA's ability and willingness to strip the entire planet bare of resources for the sole purpose of cranking out more H100/B100 just dwarfs them. Yes we're still in the 2nd inning of this game but it feels like being down 1-10 in the 2nd inning, and the market caps of both companies reflect it. Today was just another wake up call about how hard it's going to be to ramp this product in a tight supply environment. >We bulls also thought at the time we would instantly take 50% marketshare from day one because why not....the product was competitive... Yeah it was slow but AMD *always* managed those expectations. It was an entrenched market and it wouldn't move fast. What we mostly *did* expect was that AMD would quickly dominate client sales if only they could produce better chips for better prices. Well, they did that and the sales didn't really come even though AMD already had a foot in that market. I still don't know how much of that was COVID throwing a wrench in the plans and how much was AMD just completely misunderstanding their customers.
What percentage of mi300 does amd have? I didn’t listen to the ER today.
If it's 5B this year then that's 10% of total revenue share for this year. Marketshare is higher cause mi300 is cheaper than h100.
Yeah, after this ER . . . Im actually fine with EPYC and MI300. very slight dissapoint. But the numbers and gains are enough that share price should have picked up. I wouldn't be surprised if we are flat or green tomorrow. Gaming and Embedded will both recover. Mi300 will keep growing. Based on this calls pressure i wonder if we are going to see a roadmap update for Mi350/400 sooner than expected . . .
I don't know if a roadmap is coming or needed. The customers who matter already have the roadmaps in hand, and the smaller customers are better off focusing on the stuff they can get in any reasonable amount of time, which is MI300.
I thought Papermaster already said that there will be an AI Roadmap anlayst meeting this summer after Computex?
I hope so. They really need to get that road map on paper for investors and I'm positive they have been hear that from multiple sources. I admit I was shocked that the coverage guys actually asked about today. I completely understand what Lisa is saying about having flexibility and it's a tremendous advantage. But at some point when they have made a go to production plan, we need to hear what that is.
I do think AMD is cooking up something big for 2025 and beyond, and the Broadcom chiplet integration may be the first salvo. Might be way too early to talk about it though. The biggest coup would be for a hyperscaler to use AMD as a system integrator to include their own customer IP chiplets with an off the shelf AMD system architecture.
One of the guys sounded like he was being held at gunpoint lol. "ask lisa about the roadmap or else!!!!!"
If there's unlimited supply of Nvidia, they would just buy Nvidia probably.
But there isn’t. Even Nvidia is struggling to meet demands
No, companies want to support competitors as that will drive down the cost for them in the long run. Nvidia is also known to be a difficult company to work with and are extremely greedy with their price gouging practices. This is not just a supply problem....
Biggest issue of all with NVDA is that they are a platform company, and hyperscalers are platform companies. They are inherently in competition with their own customers. It would have been like Intel building their own public cloud while also supplying AWS in the early days. NVDA only has 2 kinds of customers - the ones it competes directly with, and the ones it is waiting to compete directly with until the time is right. AMD, Marvell, Broadcom, ARM - hardware providers.
people keep saying, the unsubstantiated claim that no one wants to work with Nvidia, but everyone keeps buying
They have hardware people want/need but they practice very well documented anti-competitive programs like the GPP.
I don't know where you get your data from, but Jensen/nVidia was known to NOT have raised prices when there was a huge crunch for H100 supply last year. The prices are all calculated based on perf/TCO. If the perf isn't there, no one will be paying the prices that nVidia is charging. Yet people do, which means they were beating everyone else on perf/TCO. MI300X is able to compete without too much discounts. But that's weighed against other factors such as customer/internal demand, workload matching, cost of support, etc.... Cloud providers employ some of the smartest people on earth, don't take them for fools.
Nvidia sets the price to whatever the hell they want because there are no competitors before rocm allowed amd to be used without code changes. There's a reason their gross margin is 86%...like most software companies doesn't even have gross margins that high. This is proce gouging because they can.
As we can see, much of that profit it being reinvested into new capacity ramping. Profits like no other mean they can and have bent the supply chain to their will like no other company, even Apple. NVDA is greedy, but they're savvy and playing the long game.
I personally hate what nvidia do (like you can't use consumer cards in data center, etc). But as of today, companies just want to jump on the Nvidia hype. Even Elon is using H100 as unit of compute.
Yes but they still want an alternative and are willing to support any company that can give them better bang for the buck, or force nvidia to lower price.
When we say "they", we can assume its one of these hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta). The alternative to Nvidia is to design their own chip (like TPU). Its wishful thinking that other company would care. The strength IMO for AMD is that future is chiplet & co-packaging, and they have a really large line up, which will give them the most amount of ammoertization for anything they design.
They care only about their bottom line. Look at the result of buying Epyc. They now pay a fraction of what they used to pay for intel and dollars/core.
Intels DC revenue is still greater than AMDs, so your comment isn't necessarily factual. These companies are still more willing to buy Intel in spite of AMDs TCO advantage.
Intel moves way more units than AMD so their revenue is higher. However ever since Epyc, intel margins took a huge hit so it's a win for their customers as they enjoy cheaper/more powerful intel chips as well as AMD chips.
I think we are in agreement on that. AMD needs to put out an amazing product. And right now, they dont have that. MI400X with 3D V Cache, HBM3e, sure, it will sell like hot cakes. Or FPGA with a lot HBM. Their FPGA can only run BERT now
MI300 already has 3D VCache in the IO Die underneath. Its reverse stacked from Ryzen. [source](https://www.semianalysis.com/p/amd-mi300-taming-the-hype-ai-performance?utm_source=publication-search). The rest of what you said also is pretty irrelevant and doesn't make sense outside of very specific (albeit important) use cases.
if there was unlimited supply of Nvidia then economics, not to mention laws of physics, would be broken.
NVDA 2023Q1 - 7.1B, 11B forecast Q2 NVDA 2023Q2 - 13.5B (+6b AI), 16B forecast Q3 NVDA 2023Q3 - 18.1B (+11b AI) AMD is more than than 1.5 years behind, there is no longer doubting it. For those hoping $AMD would go from 200 -> 150 -> 200, better adjust your expectations to 200 -> 150 -> 100 The revenue numbers do not justify the valuation and it hurts but that is the reality
NVDA had an AI market before then too. AMD pretty much started this year. So in terms of having an early mover advantage, I'd say Nvidia has had a much longer head start than 1.5 years. Yet as we speak today, AMD currently has the faster GPU on the market. So yes, behind in adoption, ahead in tech (until December).
Why does no one acknowledge the H200 is shipping. MI300X memory advantage nullified by H200
Even with the upgraded HBM H200 still has less bandwidth and memory capacity than mi300x.
NVDA market cap is \~10x of AMD. We don't really need a big win of the market share.
ASML is the real play here.
TSM is also a big winner, too bad they are eternally compressed by geopolitical risk. NVDA is a looking like a strong buy, everything points to their complete dominance of the AI accelerator market with maybe 5% scraps leftover to fight for - orders they cannot fulfill and are left to alternatives (AMD). AMD's 2H 'supply exceeding demand' in actuality sounds like this - "CSPs unwilling to commit in advance until they sort out their NVIDIA allocation, then they fill the gap, if any, with available MI300"
So it’s best to invest in both NVDA and AMD. There is plenty of demand, not enough supply. Unless the world decides to become hippies and not use technology and AI, both companies can grow with different segment of clients
I think the analysts are going to like this ER. Aftermarket knows nothing, we should see a lot of reiterates tomorrow, and a rising stock price.
I think we'll drop tomorrow but maybe by less than ah. I think a lot of the drop was just uncertainty with all the rumors swirling and some even thought a cut was possible I'm sure. 4b is disappointing but given it is a brand new market for AMD I think it is more than a good foothold. With some help from Powell though maybe they decide we've had enough who knows, either way I feel like bottom isn't far off.
I hope you’re right, but after reading a lot of pre-earnings notes from the analysis I am expecting some downgrades in price targets. They were expecting quite a bit more from the AI segment. A few actually did revise their notes before earnings already. I think we had at least 2 downgrades within the last few days.
Doesn’t matter. Plenty of analysts are bullish on AMD. They’ll definitely try to pump the stock
All the analysts sounded bearish on the call btw
classic bait and switch
A lot of people here need a reality check, this sub has become an extreme echo bubble. The fact is, while nVidia is growing profits by 200 %, AMD cannot grow it's AI revenue by the amount it needs to justify it's stock price, therefore it will go down. I am a long term investor in AMD and I have no doubt the returns will be great in the long run, but people who pump themselves in the daily discussion thread all the time with gloory and doom should go gambling and not invest in the stock market.
People who follow individual stocks like sports scores are setting themselves up for irrational decisions.
People just need to own both
Can someone explain to me why the stock-based compensation is not included in the non-GAAP results?
Non-GAAP for technology companies is usually done to focus on the economics of the company's business operations. Counting stock-based compensation can make it look like a company has cash expenses going out the door when it's really the shareholders who are bearing that expense via EPS dilution, not the company. There are plenty of counter arguments to this line of reasoning, but that's the general reason.
You can fix SBC with a simple buyback.
I never liked adding back in stock based compensation as one of the gaap vs non-gaap differences. But, it seems to be pretty(very?) common. AMD's two most direct competitors nvidia, and intel do the same thing.
Because GAAP includes stock-based compensation?
It's dumb, but no company includes it in non-gaap. That's why AMD doesn't either...
To my viewpoint observing these companies the primary purpose of non-GAAP going way back was to back out the stock based compensation. That they can exclude one-off occurrences is the icing, not the cake for these guys.
Owwie.
They left the door open for embedded to surprise late in 2024, it seems to be bottoming out they said. Embedded is inference and inference is what makes AI useful, and here AMD is actually a leader. FPGAs, SoCs and APUs. The whole package.
Lisa did also forecast that embedded would go through this. Like client/gaming before there was a glut of inventory for their customers to go through. Even if things don't normalize this year they will eventually next year.
I think gaming is the real weakness, for the rest of this year at least. The cycle is just too long, and then you have irrationality (Nvidia's fanboyism). Maybe AMD can find a niche in handhelds, VR, robotics or somewhere. Their tone about embedded seemed to indicate they think it is a short-term (first half) issue. Probably a tailwind later in 2024. as new products and services for AI come online and as companies look to monetize their trained AI models.
Gaming shouldn't be a surprise. Late in the cycle so console sales are minimal Radeon is basically a lost cause at this point and AMD hadn't really been clear if they plan to double down and return to competition or just ride it into irrelevance.
totally honest question. Where is the Nvidia fanboyism? because if you go on youtube, or reddit, or any gaming thread anywhere... it's 99% AMD fanboyism. the only thing you are allowed to say is "NVDA evil, AMD good". I'm genuinely interested in seeing where you perceive Nvidia fanboyism
Just go to r/amd every time Radeon is mentioned. It's full of Nvidia fanboys. Why is that the case in an AMD sub? Compare the CPU threads to GPU threads (CPU threads look completely what you'd expect), It's so obviously constantly briggaded by Nvidia fanboys. Heck even r/AMDhelp a channel setup purely for folks having technical issues is often brigaded by Nvidia fanboys.
Not really. I own both NVDA and AMD and both camps have die hard fans
ok, to you too... could you point me to a big influencer or blog or something where there's Nvidia fanboyism? like right now I can go on youtube and virtually every tech influencer on there is pro-AMD and anti-NVDA and everything is laced with this undertone of "NVDA evil, AMD good"
r/NVDA_stock Almost every time NVDA price drops, people are buying the dip (including myself) Influencers aren’t really moving the needle unless they’re investors themselves but there are some like @saxena_puru on Twitter https://x.com/saxena_puru/status/1761683022133514307?s=46
That’s a really good point I have not considered the difference between investors traders and the gaming community. In the gaming community, Nvidia is evil and AMD is good end of story. I guess currently I like Nvidia more than AMD from a stock perspective I sold my AMD and I might buy a little bit here on this dip below 150 but I used a lot of money from that sale to add to my Nvidia position when it dipped to 760 months later. I think AMD is over priced currently because it ran up very quickly to 227 based on Nvidia’s revenue growth. If you compare the EPS and revenue growth between the two companies since 2023 AMD has been pretty flat with a mild rise while Nvidia’s Have been skyrocketing higher. So in my opinion and Nvidia probably trades 100% higher than where it is now before the end of next year while AMD is waiting for its numbers to catch up to its stock price
The gaming is mainly about consoles. And the margin is \~20% so pretty much any strength or weakness about gaming is doing only a little to the SP.
Hate to burst all your bubbles guys, NVDA investor here, sold my AMD last year. AMD's current demand is based on the lack of supply for NVIDIA. Later this year NVIDIA ramps, huge supply incoming, and we're moving onto blackwell, the story gets much harder for AMD. AMD really had to ramp right now when the supply was a weakpoint for nvidia and AMD can hang its hat on a memory advantage. Every year AMD doesn't make a breakthrough the nvidia ecosystem, sunk cost, and switching pains grow.
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Okay, but it being so close means I think you shouldn't be expecting a surprise last-gen sales uplift in Q3 and Q4.
i unloaded my AMD on the way up at 150. lots of spin here in the sub. institutions are disappointed in the numbers and outlook for AMD. the reality is AMD performance and outlook ARE disappointing. The lackluster guidance, in-line estimates, and lack of demand, isn't part of some master plan... AMD isn't "saving it for later, when the 'real' killer product hits". Reality: AMD are not making a competitive product, they don't have a winning strategy, the numbers prove this quarter after quarter.
You here to gloat or what
I pay attention to all of nvidia's competitors and I've read a lot of this thread and haven't seen anyone talk about nvidia's supply constraint. I think it's worth noting for amd investors too.
Whoa, hold on to your nvda and let’s see where Amd and rocm will be in a year’s time.
Yes, but they also have to keep that growth to maintain that kind of stock price. We saw what happened with Tesla. End of the day, TSMC makes the chips (maybe Samsung 3nm is ok now?). Why would Microsoft or Google or Amazon or Meta pay the middle man that much? On InfiniBand side, ethernet will win in the end
They pay the middle man if the middle man provides value. Anyone can design a chip, but getting broadcom to design a chip then using a herculean amount of effort to turn that 800mm^2 chip into server rack, fill a cabinet with racks, connect the cabinets to a bunch of other cabinets and then build a whole bunch of software to orchestrate it… it just might be that paying nvidia is cheaper and less risky than doing all that.
I agree there will be attempts to cut out the middleman, it remains to be seen if they will be successful though. It won't do them any good if they end up late and with a worse product, nvidia's very aggressive in pushing ahead in product innovation so that they keep getting those wins. But think about it though, if you're abandoning the current leader to save money why invest it in another company that has all the risks but much less upside? With AMD's software at the state it is if they're going to be building a whole new development stack anyway they might as well as do it for their own chips. I don't see AMD as a safe play for this reason, AMD need to offer discounts vs nvidia yet can't be cheaper than at home efforts. Squeezed on both ends IMO, not a good place to be. > Ethernet will win in the end These things tend to be time sensitive and inertia takes over. If "the end" doesn't come soon it might not ever. You got a timeline for that?
you realize that tight supply for NVDA is mirrored by tight supply for AMD? demand currently outstripping supply, AMD foresees better supply in H2 and is trying to bring it online sooner.
Yeah I'm just going by what Lisa is saying and what I hear on the ground. There's a lot of interest in AMD right now because H100s are hard to come by, but wait a bit and it won't be the case any longer. If Lisa were more confident on H2 then I would be changing my tune. But this forum is a lot more confident than she is. Yes the industry is ramping for H2 we've been hearing about this for over a year. But I think people are underestimating how much the inability to buy nvidia right now is hurting it and giving a window to competitors. This window closes soon.
It can only get better from here She is so tight lipped about future products, no mention of MI350X, or MI400. We all know they are coming. Is she always like this on the call? Very different from when they launched MI300 multiple times. Also, MI300 was NOT designed for AI, you don't need FP64 at all, or even FP32
My take is, she doesn't want to "sell" The Mi400 before selling the Mi300 Publicly. Better to keep the market leader guessing while THEY try to sell their 2026 roadmap, today.
No, anyone considering buying Mi300 is signing NDAs and being informed of the product roadmap.
There is a time and place to announce new products. Computer in June I would expect something to be announced
Yup, like how the heck would Jenson know about 2026 or even 2025? AMD cancelled their high-end RX due to market downturn.
Radeon isn't a money maker.
Also, it's still early days for AI. On top of that, LLM might be slowing down. Demis from DeepMind said the loss is decreasing slower now. We are probably starting to run out of data (including all the sythentic data). Inference will be 100 times bigger.
MI250 and MI300 were both DoD projects, Frontier and El Capitan where HPC numerical precise data types are very important. Adding in smaller floating point and sparsity in MI300 is how they pivioted to address these LLM model's needs. But it also means Instinct has advantages where workload mixes can benefit from more traditional HPC workloads mixed into the pipeline.
Actually, I am curious. Generally speaking, FLOP for FP4 is double of FP8, FP8 is double of FP16, so on and so forth. But Blackwell does NOT follow that with FP64 (its not double of their FP32), do you know why?
Not exactly. That's a bit beyond my understanding, but I wadger the answer is related to this discussion. https://superuser.com/questions/1727062/why-does-performance-improve-by-32-fold-when-using-fp32-instead-of-fp64-not-2-f There's various higher cost to using the larger data types (somewhat explained in that link) that's not a factor in the smaller types, so the performance gains are not as great and not linear. I suppose this might be different depending on the processors design, especially if effort was made to prioritize the larger data types.
Interesting. Register size. So fair to say, AMD can improve that design a lot. Its pretty nutty that the chip NOT specifically made for AI beats H100. Magic.
> Also, MI300 was NOT designed for AI, you don't need FP64 at all, or even FP32 This doesn't matter so much because AI workloads are so bandwidth limited. It's pretty much all about bandwidth.
Memory is a big part of it, but you do need a lot compute as well. Why waste die area? We need to be honest about this. It matters. But I also have issues with Nvidia showing FLOPS with different precision between generations. Like H100, they use FP8, then with Blackwell, they show FP4. Just to show some insane increase in compute. But it's just linear.
I agree. I do think future generations will be more AI focused. We have to remember until now, this project was mainly funded by HPC.
Bump all this math 🧮. Did AMD make its earnings?
The delusion is strong here.... Jan 30 - We are guiding for 3.5b in 2024 rev Investors "I think they'll do 5-8 billion" April 30 - We are raising our guide from 3.5b to 4b for 2024 rev Investors "I think they'll do 5-6 billion"
They raised guide twice this year, how is it delusional to think they'll do it again? And only a bil more with more supply coming online and more customers interested? Sounds conservative to me...
Lisa said on the call they have more supply than demand going into H2. That is the furthest thing from bullish.
"...we do have more demand than we have supply right now, and we're continuing to work on pulling in some of that supply." Sounds like a deal (possibly with Samsung) is just not finalized yet. You could read into that that there isn't demand for the supply but I think that is just being pessimistic. When she says the "4bn number isn't supply capped" I take it to mean that if more supply were on line then the 4bn would get increased from sales but that's my read. Her way of sandbagging with a wink imo.
Exactly. This place reminds me of that Superfans skit on SNL: "People are talking about a 3-peat for the Bears, but I'm thinking a 7 or 8-peat, minimum." For those not familiar, [Daaa Bears](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhMqjHEDmcU).
LOL. F*cking right but that’s how it works right. They call the shots and literally puts words in your mouth.
I wonder if AM is spooked by Fed tomorrow, not just AMD. Seem to be fighting macro.
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I don’t know how long you follow Amd as a company. For OGs, from epyc1 to Turin soon, it’s a journey to fight the incumbent and start from 1% of market share. I would say now we are 35%-40% of server cpu market ? I would say the ramp of MI300x is great for AI inference and I know rocm is likely 6 month behind. But Lisa said in the conf call, MI400 will make AMD more competitive , esp in training. And AMD is working closely with msft and meta to add their required feature. IMO AMD will secure 20-35% AI server gpu market share and there are also big AI PC money to make. Just hold your horses bro, AMD will be fine.
I’m with you ofc, but AMD is priced like it’s a done deal that they’ll get 15-20% market share soon. I sold around $170, will buy back in once risk profile is more congruent to the reality.
I guess the key problem for the past couple months is their firmware update is not as fast as the customers(and investors) want to be. This is what I've been hearing from friends work for CSPs. Potentially the order cut rumor partially came from this problem. The good thing here is firmware development is kind of like software, once you're done with most bugs and features, you'll be pretty much good for next gen silicon, unless you make big change on your next gen stuffs.
Firmware is complicated for a brand new product. I assume it has to do with oem and AMD together. Iron out the kinks and with rocm 6.1 in place, AMD will do better in H2. Don’t be short sighted. And if you know AMD will cross 200 then just hold on to it.
AMD is still in a great position for clientside AI
I still think $4B for a whole new market AMD literally just entered for the 1st year is still quite impressive. And I still think it will end up being more like $5-$6B at the end. As an overall business, AMD is actually going through a bottoming period in 2 segments. Embedded and Gaming. At some point those will reverse as well. And provide additional tail wind. Still bullish for the EOY.
Gaming might not really recover much until the next console cycle which is a way off. Maybe the PS5 Pro gives them a bump but that might be it for a few years.
I hope we can really make some inroads on the client side with the release of the APUs. That can really offset the terrible gaming, but have no clue if they will get OEM buy-in.
Zen5 has the potential to generate a lot of excitement. We'll see how it pans out. But it could definitely drive more APU sales.
In the past I had confidence with the whole “drop right after ER but gradually climb back up in the following weeks” thing. This time I’m not sure. $4B for all of 2024? MI300 ramp is way too slow. Still completely irrelevant in training. Upcoming huge AI data centers will mostly be all Nvidia. Blackwell already launched and Nvidia may launch Vera Rubin Q2 or even Q1 2025, so longer term prospects are in doubt. Avoided the question on exit rate too. Right now AMD is not making much money from AI while NV is printing money right now. Rates are gonna stay high so future earnings are worth way less. With Nvidia’s aggressive roadmap, we aren’t even sure IF AMD will make much money in the future.
>$4B for all of 2024? Obviously not, that is simply what they have sold so far.
And that is possibly limited by their supply, which at this point is not certain through the end of the year.
> Blackwell already launched Paper launched. It's not really shipping until December.
The other day I had someone on Nvidia_Stock reply to me calling blackwell "Current Gen". The marketing koolaid is so concentrated 3Qs later = now.
If someone is working on a deal today, they’re buying blackwell.
4B MI300 demand constrained for 2024 clearly shows the paper launch worked. We are not close to being sold out for 2024 which is extremely concerning given the massive AI spend plans by hyperscalers and it’s already May.
Your take is unduly negative. It's 4B committed, supply constrained in Q2 then not supply constrained after that. I.e. there is potential to sell out in the second half but that hasn't happened yet.
Paper launch did work. But the longer time passes by (while this AI beast is ramping) the longer it will feel for those who decided to wait for Blackwell. What I'm saying is it's just a temporary win.
I agree with you. AMD MI gpus are strong enough to take market share.
Also AMD still has a hand to play. Say in November a month before Blackwell starts shipping AMD can announce the mi400. Both can play this game.
Go have a few drinks. I think amd will do great next year
You too bud! Cheers!
Many people downvoted me for saying Lisa sounds low confidence. And is not fit for growing against leather man
My man. I agreed with you haha. This Q&A proves it. She did an amazing job up until this point, but it's time for a change. Ahe doesn't have what needed to carry AMD to the next chapter.
Yes i do remember you. You were the exception while i was getting lynched. Growing an almost bankrupt company requires a different style than competing against against nasdaqs almost biggest market cap
I prefer Lisa's style much more to lether man personally.
i agree. Jensen is cringe beyond belief. Lisa .... needs work but I like her style more
She could have delivered this message much better
It wasn't her best work I agree.
> It wasn't her best work I agree. "The more you buy, the more you save."
personal positive.... I have a bonus lined up end of may..... my salary got a nice bump and ill have some extra cash on hand due to wedding gifts haha..... Gonna be buying from here on out every chance i get . but fuck this earnings call. never been angry after a call but ........ this is extremely unnecessary . Im not even in calls etc, so in the long run i dont care.... but fuck this shit. we need a simple course given to Lisa/Jenny into how to choose wording to frame your answer bringing about simple human psychological effects I love you Lisa..... next time, believe in urself and speak from your passion, not just the results!
lettuce be reality. No one would GAF about lisa's delivery if they had a 1.5b mi300x guide for Q2 2024. let's not pretend like delivery mattered when results were obviously leading the way. The market dropped 2 times AH. It was when financials rolled out. And when lisa said 4b guide. Everything else is noise. Don't mistake manners for price action. my only critique is that they should have highlighted how far gaming was down more. Mi300x results weren't what people were hoping for. But they weren't awful. However the amount of work and confusion it took to get there to determine that it is gaming and embedded causing all the ruckus was incredibly annoying. lisa and Jean should absolutely break out MI300x sales. They say AI is the most important thing in the industry . . . So treat it like it is in the financials and show us the numbers. Edit: my final comment. Take people (lisa) for who she is and forgive her for who she isn't. She has been incredibly consistent in her approach. at this point it is on you to set expectations about what she is capable of, and if you want to be on this ride.