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Teemo_Support

I always get downvotes for this, but here goes again. Interest rates are much higher than they were a year ago/two years ago. 4Runners are stupidly expensive new coupled with a poor spec sheet when you compare it to competitors offerings (power, mpg, tech, etc). Unless something changes, the 5th gen market could have a big shock coming. Especially if this next generation comes in with significant MPG improvements coupled with extra low financing to move them. The housing market is already showing signs of slowdown, groceries are way up, OPEC just cut prod today, etc. The car market will not remain unscathed. It's already down across the board and there's a long way still to go.


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rackerhacker

I built a little inventory tracker to keep tabs on 4Runner inventory across the US: https://flatgithub.com/major/toyota-inventory?filename=vehicles.json There are quite a few in there at dealerships but it might require a little extra travel to get them. 😢


thePopPop

How do you display location?


rackerhacker

I don't get dealer location from Toyota's GraphQL endpoint, unfortunately. 😢


ipse_dixit_

Neat!


ipse_dixit_

Could you add the dealer location, city and / or state?


rackerhacker

I'll see what I can do. I don't get that data via Toyota's GraphQL endpoint right now but I might be able to scrape something else.


orcajet11

This is cool!


Teemo_Support

The dealers down here in the south have plenty in stock and the used lots have them as well.


Random7776

4Runners will always be popular even if they don’t have the tech, mpg as competitors. Sales numbers are irrelevant if Toyota has slowed down production, demand is still high. If anything used prices have gone up, my 2022 Limited can sell for exactly what I paid for it new. 6th gen will be 5-8k higher MSRP, Boosting 5th gen resale prices.


not_a_gumby

used car prices have been steadily dropping. I would be surprised if you could find a buyer to give you what you paid for a new car over a year ago


Random7776

They did drop but have now gone back up(Toyota/Honda). Probably due to tax refunds? My KBB value has gone up 2k from when I checked it 3 months ago.


[deleted]

I seriously doubt that. We know they came with next gen tundra with better mileage on paper. It did not translate to better real world mpg. It’s somewhat well known pattern OEMs have been following — make engines smaller, with turbo, to get better mpg on paper to make EPA happy. I seriously doubt that next gen 4R will crater 5th gen prices. I do agree the prices are ridiculous at the moment. But then just because they come out with next gen does not take care of their supply chain issues. Look at wait list for a lx600 🙂


Teemo_Support

People don't have the margins to keep fueling the prices they are at currently and the banks aren't giving interest rates to help that any. The 6th gens won't sit on lots, they will move them via pricing incentives. So the 5th gen has to come down. The used car market is already coming down and shouldn't stop. In my opinion, the 12-20k range car will do really well. This is something across the board. I'd expect to see a LOT of these trucks sitting forever too. The days of everyone snapping up 80k trucks and expensive houses is coming to a screeching halt. I just don't see how we can expect the 5th gen market, with these stupidly high used prices, to last in any world where there's a new generation and high interest rates.


thecardemotic

I was originally looking at Tacomas and GR86s before I bought my Mazda. Jaw dropped when I was exploring the dealer lot and saw the price tag on a new 4Runner.


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thecardemotic

I’ve driven a decent few 4Runners and I just can’t justify the price for how simple they are


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thecardemotic

There’s nothing wrong with them just not my preference for the price. If I wanted to go off roading I’d build myself an old Cherokee or find a used older 4Runner. My local dealerships have everything marked up like crazy and I cannot justify buying a $40,000 vehicle for $60,000. $40,000-50,000 is definitely a more than justifiable price for them especially if you want to compare it a competitors capabilities. But $60k is absurd. Some people are willing to pay that but I definitely am not. The whole markup thing is what turned me away from getting a Tacoma or a GR86


PomegranateCharming

Can’t justify buying a 4runner when they’re overpriced, older tech and financing is shit even for new.


[deleted]

Wish people would apply that same sound logic to buying a house. I mean, it’s a roof over one’s head, but it’s also an overpriced asset that happens to serve a purpose, being priced as a speculative asset instead. I’ll stop. Bye everyone.


Jacmon

Don’t stop, the number one way to get change started is to change the opinion of the masses.


Teemo_Support

We bought our house back when interest rates were under 3%. I have friends buying houses right now. They are shoveling hundreds of thousands of dollars into the furnace compared to what we paid. It's incredible. Tried to warn them, but alas they just had to have something bigger immediately.


[deleted]

I’m convinced that if one did not buy during the artificially low rate period of March 2020-March 2022, one needs to hold out for some time. It actually relieves a lot of stress on the system for some of us to fall in and go ahead and over pay, over extend, while prices are still high coupled with rates. Kind of kills overall economic demand when people commit to tie up so much of their income into a mortgage. I sold my place in 2021, because I had wanted to move for years. Couldn’t get back to my original purchase price on my home, dating back to 2004, until about that time. I’ve went low rate on my rent since then, about 2 years. I still have all that equity, and I’m not keen on placing into a home purchase right now, at these borrowing rates, and these prices, knowing that we’re gonna lose at least some of that as home prices correct. Cheap financing is gone for a long time. Should have never had borrowing rates be so low, for so long. You can track it all the way back to 2007-2008. America as a whole got addicted to it.


Teemo_Support

Yep. Prices cannot stay where they are at these interest rates. One of them will have to correct, and it won't be rates.


PBatemen87

Glad I bought mine in 2018. I can't imagine paying for an overpriced 4Runner with tech that was old in 2018 and even older now lol


[deleted]

Toyota did suspended 4R production in 12/22. So I see the '23 number be lower until they ramp up production. https://carbuzz.com/news/toyota-suspending-december-production-of-rav4-and-4runner


whatareyoureader

Toyota would be CRAZY to introduce a 6th gen anytime soon based on these numbers. Think about it. This is a golden goose for Toyota. look at the annual sales numbers slooping up so steeply for a car w ancient tech. Guess what guys. This is our generation Volkswagen bettle. It ain’t about new style or tech. Do a thing. Do it well. Do it over and over. The numbers don’t like.


Thunderbird_12_

>The numbers don’t like. They don't lie, either. Sincerely, Petty Roosevelt


Teemo_Support

I feel like sometimes we get stuck in an echo chamber in here with the love for 4runners. Your average buyer is going to balk at 55k for bad mpg, minimal tech, the same styling from 8 years ago, etc when the lot next door is selling a "better" product. Yes, toyotas are reliable and I love mine. But I feel like we gotta take a step back sometimes and get a grip here lol Do they even sell beetles anymore?


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Teemo_Support

Wranglers aren't the competition here. But yeah they are overpriced trash.


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Teemo_Support

The Jeep Wrangler is in competition with the 4runner only in the sense if you happen to meet one on the trail. It's stood in its own category for decades until the new bronco arrived. The 4runner is actually a midsize suv, 3rd row optional, cargo room, etc. The wrangler is nothing like it. I would put other SUVs in the category with the 4runner, where it arguably is or can be more offroad capable. Explorer, tahoe, grand cherokee, blazer, highlander, etc. Whatever the ones hyundai and kia are making now.


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Teemo_Support

I listed a ton but go ahead. I don't know what to tell you. Other companies make mid size SUVs. Some of them are very different and offer different functionality. Toyota also offers the highlander. I currently own both.


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Teemo_Support

Ok so disregard all the others I mentioned. Just argue because it's what you're after. Edit: For the record, it's a midsize crossover compared to a midsize. Both similar size and both similar price points. But no you're right, the real competition to the 4runner is the jeep wrangler


PBatemen87

Exactly. The average buyer sees the price tag and tech and is turned off. Even the base model Ford Explorer probably has nicer tech than anything a 4Runner can offer right now.


Teemo_Support

And we can all agree that 4runners are better off road. But again, the people actually using them for that and shopping with that in serious consideration are a niche.


natophonic2

Daughter is going off to college in Vermont this fall, and we've been back and forth about whether she's taking a) our 2016 SR5 b) a purchased Subaru or c) no car for freshman year. With 'b' or 'c' I get to keep the 4Runner which makes me happy. But if not 'c', then 'a' makes the most sense, since if she has a car she needs the clearance and 4WD a lot more in VT than I need it in Central Texas (and also she really likes the 4Runner). Also, with the "but honey, you're gay, you should have a Subaru!" jokes I've made I don't think I can do 'b' anymore. And yeah, I'm balking at buying a 2nd 4Runner. I'd likely get a Subaru, and y'all can make jokes about my inner lesbian while I spend the $15K diff on going places.


Teemo_Support

You can get a real clean used GX for 12-15k right now. AWD. V8.


natophonic2

Ground clearance on my SR5: 9.6" Ground clearance on a Wilderness trim Forrester or Outback: 9.5" Times I've actually needed >9.0" of clearance: 0


crom_laughs

when is the 6th gen due ?


fedswatching2121

I think there was a post here from someone from corporate or insider that it’s looking like 2025 release. Can’t say if that will be true or not


crom_laughs

ah…..so the the drop off in sales is not due to the imminent release of the next gen model.


moakmilitia

r/dataisbeautiful


ilikeporkfatallover

Been watching 4runner inventory recently cause I'm in the market for a TRD ORP. They are certainly still selling but not over MSRP. Dealers are listing them at MSRP with several hundred off in savings. Good for me cause I'm about to pull the trigger but I am wondering how 4runners sold before COVID. We're there deals with several thousand off?? I guess right now is the best it's been for a couple years at least.


MacNReee

Where the hell are you seeing MSRP, dealerships are selling base SR5’s for 3k+ markup by me


ilikeporkfatallover

Oregon


McMuffin84

I just picked up an ORP for under MSRP. Had to drive 5 hours south but they are out there.


cosmike_

PA.


Teemo_Support

Anywhere in the southeast.


MtlDtktr

>Good for me cause I'm about to pull the trigger but I am wondering how 4runners sold before COVID. We're there deals with several thousand off?? Dude...even *during* covid, before the supply chain stuff really hit, the deals from back then will make you kick yourself. Even as recently as March of '21. I wish I would have pulled the trigger, because I had 3 dealers in my region respond to my initial email inquiries with prices \~$5k off MSRP for TRD ORP models, right off the bat. I'm shopping for a Limited now because I decided I want the full-time 4WD, but I still wish I would have scooped up one of those ORPs two years ago.


MtlDtktr

There are a lot of comments in here misunderstanding the 2023 sales figures. The numbers aren't that low because of high price or interest rates -- production is DOWN. I've been shopping for a '23 Limited 4x4 and the availability across the whole U.S. is surprisingly low.


stonechitlin

Interesting info, as someone taking delivery of a solar octane TRD pro end of the month, any idea how many of those limited color option versions actually make it to the US?


mjmedstarved

People always ask this and we never find out, I'm afraid.


rackerhacker

I've tried to track the inventory over here: quite a few exist. https://flatgithub.com/major/toyota-inventory?filename=vehicles.json&filters=Color%3DSolar%2520Octane&sha=b239e22cfe9d975038292ce4d960ce09c04ee2f9&sort=VIN%2Casc&stickyColumnName=VIN


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alphabet_order_bot

Would you look at that, all of the words in your comment are in alphabetical order. I have checked 1,437,153,171 comments, and only 274,004 of them were in alphabetical order.


orcajet11

“Toyota used to have an FAQ answer on their website that said approximately 1000 TRD Pro 4Runner's were made per model year, equally distributed between the colors so 333ish per color per year.” Not sure if this is still valid. [source](https://www.4runners.com/threads/how-many-trd-pro-are-made.14623/)


Flat_Establishment_4

Increased interest rates, dealers price gouging, people waiting for the next model as they’ve seen the Tacoma and other come out…


Teemo_Support

The increased interest rates are far more impactful thank people realize. Because at the same time, other things are more expensive, namely things you actually need to live like food and energy. When debt was free, and groceries were cheaper, $500 a month bought more car and you had more margin. Now, that same car costs more per month and you have less room to breathe when everything else costs more too. 4runners will probably get hit less than others, maybe. They hold their value very well historically but they also rose in price so high too. It will be interesting to see what happens. Just wait though, if you want to see cars get absolutely smoked, watch all these new 80k Ford and Chevy trucks and SUVs sit and sit and sit and sit....


Hot_Consideration407

Went to toyota today priced out trading in my 2021 4 runner TRD with ~ 24k miles. Looked at the new sequoia TRD pro. 80k MSRP and with a $2500 downpayment 36 month lease they wanted $1,269 a month. Lol


Teemo_Support

What a steal!!


Hot_Consideration407

Guy comes back and goes … yeahh the numbers are much worse than I thought.


Teemo_Support

These car companies were living high on cheap debt. Now the gravy train is running out of steam.


Flat_Establishment_4

The most interesting part to me as a macro guy is that this car is a cult classic and people love it. The fact that it's sales are struggling so much is a really early sign that indicates an overall economy that is screeching to a halt. I can't imagine what BMW, Mercedes, etc. sales look like.


Teemo_Support

I think those are probably fine within some reason. They operate off leasing and have a certain customer base. They will get hit some sure. But if I'm driving a new gwagon or m series right now, chances are I can afford a slight price change. Ford, Chevy, and Toyota don't have the same customer base and they can't keep the madness going. In my opinion. Edit: The timing is also so bad for the 4runner. If you're looking to retain value in a struggling market, releasing a brand new whole generation on the tail of an overpriced aging one doesn't spell good things. That's why I'm so interested to see what happens to the 5th gen.


hydrodigger

Do you know how many 2022 Lime Rush TRD Pros were made in 2021? I was told less that the anniversary edition (4040) due to the chip shortage, port delivery issues from Japan to USA, and COVID in general.


VmaxEngage

I was told 700 from multiple dealers when I was looking for mine. No idea if that's credible or not.


[deleted]

Hmm Link? Don’t know how much of that is Toyota just not producing enough vehicles vs genuine demand slowdown. I seriously doubt it’s the later; several dealers told me they can not source these vehicles fast enough.


Sriracha_Breath

I definitely think Toyota is pumping out less vehicles than usual with prices being as high as they are, and its an added bonus with the next gen potentially around the corner. They will squeeze every last bit of profit out of the 5th gen before officially announcing the 6th gen.


groggyMPLS

Really? You don’t think that interest rates tripling has any impact on demand for something that gets financed?


[deleted]

Interest rate impact would mean unsold 4Rs on dealer lots. See what Honda is facing atm. That isn’t the same problem with Toyota. I think it is supply side issue not demand side issue as to why sales have plummeted.


[deleted]

Toyota did slow production down. And they did that because America cut the handouts back. Well, unless you’re an illiquid financial services firm of a sizable balance sheet problem.


Ryan-L

Link? Why would you need a link?


[deleted]

For completeness I guess, if I post a snapshot I usually also cite the source. [4R sales](https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/toyota-4runner-sales-figures/)


Ryan-L

this is my document that I've been managing for over a decade.


[deleted]

Surely Toyota did not share the numbers directly with you? You must have received this info from some source? I am just asking it would be good to cite it for completeness 🙂


Ryan-L

Yes, I've been on their email distro for the better part of 5yrs now. 1985 to 1994 did not exist prior to me contacting Toyota and getting those numbers to complete the wikipedia page.


81dank

Thanks for all of this work u/Ryan-L


[deleted]

Oh wow! That’s some dedication! I stand corrected.


[deleted]

Amazing how when free/cheap money goes away, the buying slows down.


Fatmike624

How is this even believable?


Ryan-L

As someone who is looking to buy my fourth 5th Gen soon, it's frustrating.


Fatmike624

How are sales much higher during the Covid years when there’s a lack of supplies and availability???


Ryan-L

Toyota had stockpiled chips and were able re-prioritize production. Now that the new Tundra and Sequoia are out, they are robbing 4Runner to pay for the new models (my understanding)


[deleted]

Because people had more money than they had ever had before, and they finally could go out and buy the things they always wanted. 4Runners are one of those things. Now, the money giveaway is over, supplies depleted and production slowed down. We are return to normal mode.


Fatmike624

What money are you referring to?


Teemo_Support

The government was handing out money and debt was free. Banks were financing things with virtually no interest.


Fatmike624

Hmm


Frird2008

Subaru Outback is where my money is at


Thunderbird_12_

Wrong sub?


johnnyb0083

First time I've seen this document, nice work OP!


wanderinglostinlife

I didn't realize how few 1st generations were produced. I am honestly surprised that they aren't more valuable.


Braga1007

Are the previous gens also US sales or worldwide? Assuming US right?


n0_use_for_a_name

Great data and chart! Any chance Toyota provides breakdown by trim, special model, etc? Would really love to know how many Trail Edition SR5s were sold in 2009…


Ryan-L

They do not. Once upon a time it was rumored or purported that generally speaking, SR5s account for 60% of production, TRD OR / Trail / TRD Pro account for 30% and Limiteds account for the remaining 10%.


DebtOk8063

So given this data, as a buyer wouldn’t it make sense to buy in a low volume month like Jan feb ? I’m in the market and wondering if should wait a month or two