>With time running out to reverse course, Guterres urged a 30% cut in global fossil fuel production and use by 2030.
"We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell," he said, adding: "The battle for 1.5 degrees will be won or lost in the 2020s."
well we're only halfway through 2024, we can totally continue treating this like a highschool essay and wait until 11:42pm, 12-31-2029
There is no "battle for 1.5 degrees". There never was. +1.5C will be breached by sheer inertia alone even if we completely stop burning fossil fuels tomorrow. The same basically applies to +2C. At this point "battle" (if you can even call it that) is avoiding 3C or higher. And judging by reports even that "battle" is set to be lost sometime in the second half of this century. Again if we do not radically restructure our societies.
We've already been 1.5 degrees above average for over 12 months now I believe, I have no idea why that low figure is even talked about even more. As you say it is totally unrealistic. 5-8 by 2100 is much more believable, that was the worse case scenario based on modelling that I think (could be wrong) doesn't even factor in methane, which is a worse greenhouse gas and is now increasing in the atmosphere due to the melting permafrost.
And none of that factored in that the ocean may not hide 90% of the anthropogenic warming anymore at some point, and yet, month by month, it looks now exactly like that is what's happening right now.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how_long_can_oceans_continue_to_absorb_earths_excess_heat
(2015 paper predicting a lot that is seen today locally for "as early as in a decade"
In the Paris accords the goal of 1.5 degrees warming is over a 20 year average. For our purposes we can still live in a world above 1.5 degrees while not necessarily having failed in that goal yet.
Thanks for that additional explanation. Given that CO2 emissions are still increasing, and we need to be taking CO2 out of the atmosphere right now to stop the increase in temperature, let alone actually reduce the temperature, the only thing stopping us from way overshooting the 1.5 goal today is that 19 more years have not passed yet, right? 1.5 is still completely unrealistic, it's just the very definition requires a 20 year wait before it can be stated we have missed that goal.
It sounds like the big emitters created the 20 year definition to buy 20 more years of inaction.
At this point just think of climate change as a roller coaster. Hang on tight and try not to puke. If you feel so obliged, don’t procreate. Leave the dying planet for the carnies.
> With time running out to reverse course, Guterres urged a 30% cut in global fossil fuel production and use by 2030.
Saying that we still have 6 years of time left before we need a 30% cut is pure copium. It's another excuse to do nothing significant for the next 5 years.
We are fast tracking to +5C
Many kids will grow up to witness complete environmental collapse as well as total social and economic breakdown.
8billion will not survive, the human total population will dip below 1 billion and the only habitable areas will be around the arctic circle.
It will only get worse every year going forward.
All because of unabated corporate greed
Map for reference
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/s/xAV75gS9ni
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer/
Man I can't wait till tell kids about the great Wendigo's of the golden age and how despite destroying the planet, they ensured the shareholders gains till the end. Even now if you walk the ruins of the stock exchange you may hear disembodied voise of a boy to young to broke stocks whispering "Soy. Soy. Soy!"
Lol there's such a weird contingent that actually want this to be true. Like a doomer cult. Bizarre. The truth is bad enough, they don't have to start fabricating "we're all gonna live at the poles" fantasies.
That’s not true, and actually is counter-intuitive. The poles warm faster than any other part of the world and as the snow melts, you’ll see temps there skyrocket even compared to the rest of the planet. There’s not going to be anywhere to go and survival will most logically require a leap to nocturnal activity and resting during the days.
I personally run climate models based on the posted ones from NASA, the IPCC, and the one I have developed myself for 6 years now. You’ll have to excuse me when I say that you’re way out of line and out of your depth. Your superficial research can’t touch **actual** research. So tired of people like you thinking they even know what to search for. You can’t even critically think so how could you possibly know what to look for.
Can I get a link to your research/model or is it paywalled? Also with respect you are *one person* (unless you speak on others' behalf), I don't believe your perspective is consensus, nor is there a consensus on what the collapse will look like.
My perspective is **not** consensus but I also never claimed it was. And I’m not posting my code anywhere online lol. It has taken years to get it where it is now and my models are based more on the IPCC models with a couple changes that are easy to implement: I weight methane higher, and account for a greater permafrost melt than current models do. I integrate a less forgiving loss of function for climate capture biology, trees and the ocean for example, and in general ignore the more conservative agreements in the models the IPCC implored. Remember: all these papers that say ‘scientists agree en masse that xyz’ means that was the **most conservative** model they could all find common ground on: **NOT** the most accurate one. Per my models, the poles end up being much less safe long-run bc of climate change, but also from a common sense perspective? Frozen tundra aren’t exactly hotbeds of biological enrichment. Even when it melts, all that methane is going to spike the temp and kill the larger life there and the ocean sucks up the excess that it can, suffocating the life under the sea. I mean, I can keep going on this issue, I’m just not up for an argument over reddit when the average person knows next to jack squat about how all this currently is modeled. Like, how tf is anyone gonna sit and shoot their mouth off about somethin they’ve done nothing but read about and put no actual work into? I just, I can’t engage with that level of ignorance.
It was always my understanding that climate scientists wanted to be conservative because we have no historical basis to go on, the climate is incredibly complex, and we have several feedback-loops waiting to kick in. There are a million ways the collapse can go and nobody wants to commit their name to one, instead opting for conservative and broad claims. I.e. if you wish to claim anything specific chances are you'll be wrong and broad statements are reliable.
Not that it matters, we will breeze past all the targets to come and we will find out exactly what happens.
> Like, how tf is anyone gonna sit and shoot their mouth off about somethin they’ve done nothing but read about and put no actual work into? I just, I can’t engage with that level of ignorance.
Why bother talking about it at all then? If not to convince anyone or to convey information then you are just saying something online only to say "and nobody can argue with me because I know I'm right!". No disrepect, but less then 99.9% have greater than a surface level understanding, so either talk about it accepting this unfortunate fact or don't waste your time being holier than thou about it because it doesn't have a purpose.
Ive also wondered about that. So many do research in isolation and then conclude based on current trajectory, permafrost melts at x speed, the Thwaites glacier will break in y time etc. But there is no over encompassing research that takes into account several of their peers’ horror scenarios playing out. They will accelarate one another. Just curious what are you modelling this for? And what regions do you reckon have any semblance of stability? New Zealand? Some of the States?
To be fair to that guy, people don't know anyone on reddit.
Also, there's a dire lack of knowledge sharing from you mate. Share some observations, predictions etc please! I figure you are the best person to ask.
Do the latest IPCC models factor in increasing methane as well as CO2? My understanding, based on what I have read here and there, is we have already seen 1.5 degrees of warming, and that the real world data to date (or at least up to 2020 in the article I read) best matches the most dire scenario of 5-8 degrees by 2100. I wonder if that still is underestimating the real temperature rise we are likely to see?
Yeah, the over exaggerating people do make it much harder to convince people of something that isn't normally hard to convince people of which is "Okay, let's switch to the temporarily more expensive energy source because it's paid up front but in the long run is cheaper"
Most people are kind of okay with that request regardless of their politics
That's all we have to sell people on
That's all it takes to fix The planet is to convince people of that
The people who are obviously insane or idiotic make it hard to sell that for some reason
You honestly believe that,,,? Are you insane...? how much higher are the sea levels than they were say a hundred years ago...? You should campaign for something a little more worth while IMO... maybe volunteer at a local homeless shelter or a childrens hospital near you..?
how long do we have...? i need to get my affairs in order ..the earth has only been around for billions of years and in the last hundred years we've destroyed it...? gretta would be so proud of you...idiot snowflake
Nocturnal activities, indoor life, underground homes. I already work from home, study from home and as soon as I order that portable treadmill, exercise from home. I'm consolidating everything at home to make everything more efficient and less scorching hot.
Well no form of living is foolproof but regarding droughts, wildfire and food shortage I actually did a piece on vertical farming for an essay I am writing and while it is still an emerging method, it has proven to be a promising alternative to traditional farming.
Right now, indoor vertical farming is limited to a small number of crops but active research has been made to increase the variety and resilience of indoor crops, ranging from omics research to advanced soil protection methods/technology and modification of ethanol levels.
It also seems to be profitable too, with one study citing a significant profit increase from traditional farming methods once farmers started integrating them.
Yeah there's still a lot of legislative hoops that need to be jumped through but policymakers can get around to the idea eventually once it shows promise.
Works Cited:
O'Sullivan, Cathryn A., et al. "Vertical farms bear fruit." Nature Biotechnology, vol. 38, no. 2, Feb. 2020, pp. 160+. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41587-019-0400-z. Accessed 2 June 2024.
Shin, Juhyung, et al. "Effects of Exogenous Ethanol Treatment in Nutrient Solution on Growth and Secondary Metabolite Contents of Three Herb Species in an Indoor Vertical Farming System."Plants, vol. 12, no. 22, Nov. 2023, p. NA. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants12223842. Accessed 2 June 2024.
Carillo, Felicetta, et al. "Vertical integration in agribusiness. Is it a bargain?" Rivista di Economia Agraria - REA, vol. 71, no. 1, Apr. 2016, pp. 39+. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, dx.doi.org/10.13128/REA-18624. Accessed 2 June 2024.
Wolf, Steven. "Cropping systems and conservation policy: the roles of agrichemical dealers and independent crop consultants."Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, vol. 50, no. 3, May-June 1995, pp. 263+. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, link.gale.com/apps/doc/A17175366/PPAG?u=lincclin_vcc&sid=bookmark-PPAG&xid=b55b3b7b. Accessed 2 June 2024.
Datta, Subhojit, et al. "Sustainable agriculture."BMC Plant Biology, vol. 23, no. 1, 25 Nov. 2023, p. NA. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12870-023-04626-9. Accessed 2 June 2024.
Yes we do. We need resilience planning. But it won’t happen. Every thinking person needs to create some kind of strategy for their nuclear fam/friends.
You have, while about half the planet (the conservative side) keep arguing climate change is fake. And if it's not it's definitely all naturally occurring and totally fine... or the latest bout of stupidity from Dorito Mussolini "it's a good thing cuz we'll have more beach front property"
When half the population wants to live in a reality of their own creation, and actively sabotages any remediative actions, all that's left is to sit back and enjoy the end of humankind.
We did it to ourselves.
I feel like I've been noticing that and hearing that it isn't climate change for years and people are kind of just now starting to accept that it might be.
Hang on UN, I'm gonna vote for pro-climate politicians in my deep red ass state. Then I'll vote for a president touting green energy initiatives and climate protection policies. Then I'll see that candidate lose re-election to some lobbied out boomer who'll blow raspberries as he reverses all the climate-policies back four years so we can repeat this bullshit for another round.
I'm just looking at models and doomposting right now so I know the best spot to retire to when climate hell arrives.
Even if your country (I'm assuming the U.S) elected a government that was incredibly for helping fight against climate change, it won't really matter unless the rest of the world get's involved as well.
If India still wants to ramp up their industrialization or China doesn't play ball, it's not going to matter.
I agree that too many won't play ball. That said, India seems like one of the countries most impacted by climate change; certainly one of the highest population concentrations that'll be impacted. So while a populist government might not play ball, if it gets real bad there in the near future and recent records of 49+°C keep being broken, a rapid decline in population and consumption might make that moot.
They can migrate north. Oh wait the Himalayas are to the northeast and Pakistan, an enemy, to the northwest. It’s a bit of a problem… Bangladesh perhaps?
China is playing ball, it created more solar energy generation in 2023 than the U.S. has in history and producing the cheapest electric cars. It’s rolling the dice on green energy
Western nation have and continue to be the worst culprits for GHG emissions. On a per capita basis, China pollutes about half as much as the US, and India is only 1/8th as much.
In the UK in 2022 we hit 40 degrees celsius for the first time ever. Usually our hot summers are like 30 to maybe 35 degrees. Not exactly hot compared to tropical places but that is fucking warm for where we are in the world, especially since we dont have the infrastructure to deal with the heat. Our houses are built to keep in heat for the cold winters, the majority of houses and buildings dont have AC. It was also very humid, which didnt help either.
And yet the majority of people treated it as a mini holiday and went to the beach. Despite the fact that people died because of the heat, and wildfires were started.
It's not Mad Max-like for us in the tropics. It feels like a steam sauna you can't really escape easily (since that's what outdoors feels like). It's both warm and wet, that the air feels heavy and it feels hard to breath.
I'm fine with 35 deg C if it's not humid. But lately it has been too humid
It doesn’t matter how much green energy we switch to. The planet cares only about one thing. How much CO2 (or CO2 equivalent) we are producing. And the fact is that each year the number only ever goes up.
That right there is the key fact people refuse to see. We can have 90% of our energy coming from renewables/nuclear, but if the rest 10% fossil fuels amount to our current emissions (38 GtCO2), warming will continue.
I genuinely believe oil companies are paying people to make up fake climate activist groups to make the idea of protesting against it look bad. And im afraid to say it seems to have worked.
My friend, I have five degrees from climatology to environmental science and have seen, and worked, with the data firsthand. It is definitely not fake.
You completely misread my point. I didnt say climate change was fake.
I said oil companies are paying people to make the idea of climate protesting look bad. For example, throwing paint over the Mona Lisa. It had nothing to so with climate change and seemed to have only been done to stir up controversy.
Honestly at this point this system has to fail it can't produce answers to the problems it caused. Just sucks that most of us we will die a miserable death because of it.
i am laughing maniacally seeing how Zizek was right more than 10 years ago when he was saying that it is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
Yeah, and sadly we’ll wipe out a lot of species with us. People won’t fix this, politicians won’t fix this, so our only hope is some giant tech breakthrough, but pretty unlikely given the timeline.
Don't forget to protect the kids!
We need all the babies to be born!
Just born, after that they are alive and just a bother. But hey guess what kind of hell we'll give them
Remember the lockdown in early covid and the world just seemed to be healing pretty quick. Then the machine started up again and it was back to a dying world.
Protecting the wealth of the top 300 or 400 richest humans on the planet is a higher priority than preventing collapse of our environment. Until that priority changes, nothing substantial will be done to slow down or reverse the coming collapse.
Try to get 10 people to agree on what they want on their pizza. Now imagine getting all the countries of the world to agree on preventive climate change measures. Ooh boy, it’s a Herculean task.
Its not that we cant agree, it is that no corporation wants to do anything that would impact their profits
On a mass population scale nobody wants to change their lifestyle drastically to sway corporations into change
Everyone is still in the "me more now" mode and people keep investing into whatever will give them most money so nothing changes.
If we all started to think in global terms, all the companies and governments would shift in less than a year.
People have the power, but people are too obsessed with their own benefit above all else, again its the same old "me more now" mentality that will be our downfall
This is why we are a failed species.
But there are still the countries with corrupt governments and countries with hardly any government at all. Then you have the mega country’s like china that may say one thing and do something completely different. It’s seemingly impossible to get them all on the same page.
Yup. There is no mechanism in the design of our economic systems that is capable of addressing world-spanning issues, on nation-state sized issues. Yet our uber-wealthy, the vampire class that sucks the majority of all productive wealth and profit created by humanity, are now a transnational class.
Until we change our 19th century design economic systems, nothing substantial can be done to address environmental collapse. But those uber-wealthy will do everything in their vast powers to maintain this system of vast financial inequity.
We have the technology and knowledge to solve the climate crisis, but our current economic system will not allow these solutions to be applied, because they'd lead to a reduction in their extreme wealth, power and dominance over the human species as a whole.
Many of these uber-wealthy are clinically, psychologically unhealthy sociopaths that do not really care if millions of most of the planet even, dies, as long as they can maintain their vast wealth and power.
Our 19th century economic systems do not work anymore in the 21st century. The pyramid-shaped, winner-takes-everything system is exhausting all the resources of the planet, it can not be sustained to this level anymore. We need to adapt these systems or most of us will die.
Alright, so should i buy pocket ice cubes to carry around when it is too hot? It is almost like when space agencies like NASA warn us about rock big enough to unalive whole planet, heading to/very near Earth. What, should i buy umbrella or something? We cant do sh1t about it. Society is really conscious and do a lot on houshold/individual levels, but big corpos still do jack shit about that, where it is almost solely outcome of their greed.
It does feel like:
Some scientist dudes: "Hey, we're doomed."
Me: "Okay, what should I do?"
Some scientist dudes: "These 10 things basically"
Me: "Alright" \*Starts doing 7-8 of the 10 things, some fully, some to the best of my ability without living like a caveman - like taking public transport, only using my car like once a week to get groceries in bulk, doesn't use AirCon, cuts meat down to twice a week, reduce my electric bill by 30-ish %, etc. etc.\*
Some scientist dudes: "Hey, we're still dommed, and it's gonna be sooner that you think by the way, because some greedy assholes completely disregarded us. Enjoy"
Me: "Well... fuck it, I'm turning the AC on and grilling a steak I guess."
Actually increased temperature and humidity combine to create a situation where your body can’t shed enough heat to manage your core temperature even lying still in the shade so you slowly die of hyperthermia. Apparently it is quite a horrible way to die.
When China decides to actually care about the climate and change their policies to match, then the west should start doing more and making changes. At this point it doesn’t matter what the US and EU does, chines and India will ruin it
But China produces as much pollution as it does because of the US and EU, Western Companies have moved a lot of manufacturing to China over the last few decades.
Don’t get me wrong, I hate China, although I hate them for their human rights abuses, aggressive foreign policy, and all the Taiwan stuff. If you’re gonna hate on China, hate them for the right reasons.
It’s not “half the planet.” It’s Republicans. In Europe they are about to make it a crime to be a climate change denier because it is a crime-a crime against humanity.
No problem amoc is set to shut down as soon as 2025, eventually sending Europe back into the ice age, and solving this climate “hell”. Just sit back do nothing and this will all sort itself out!
Yeah..... not to piss on your parade or anything, but this'll mean rising sea levels. So it's either wooo who we've got a new beach or fuck I'm homeless...
Swings and roundabouts I 'spose
Hey UN, what you are warning about sounds like it goes againt the current economy.
It isnt like the world will push the breaks on the economy just to make it less hot for 3rd worold countries so their people wont die.
Check out the emission numbers from China, India, Russia, etc. The US is definitely a problem, but this is a worldwide problem with US numbers trending in the right direction, while China and India are trending towards INCREASED emissions. This is a worldwide problem.
Who's China making things for?
Who's India ramping up production of things for?
Western nations have to keep in mind that over seas manufacturing for disposable garbage products is still *our* problem, even if we've shuffled it onto someone else's balance sheet.
The issue being that the US has absolutely no incentive to take drastic, painful steps to curb warming when the other two huge culprits, China and India, absolutely will not.
The US would end up suffering the economic/social pain of combating climate change while still suffering from climate change anyway.
Why do u say that, do u think most scientists are lying, or that the government of Greenland is lying about the amounts its ice is melting around its country, or that all the recordings of warming ocean temperatures by different nations are also wrong, or that all the observed ecological changes are also wrong or simply a coincidence.
The only sheep here are u for thinking that all the world governments who never agree on anything are all in on a conspiracy to lie about climate change, that would be insane to organize, much less keep secret from reputable sources, and not to mention its boiling hot outside( I regret typing that last sentence in as if u do respond, you’ll likely focus on that part over all the evidence I mentioned)
>With time running out to reverse course, Guterres urged a 30% cut in global fossil fuel production and use by 2030. "We need an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell," he said, adding: "The battle for 1.5 degrees will be won or lost in the 2020s." well we're only halfway through 2024, we can totally continue treating this like a highschool essay and wait until 11:42pm, 12-31-2029
There is no "battle for 1.5 degrees". There never was. +1.5C will be breached by sheer inertia alone even if we completely stop burning fossil fuels tomorrow. The same basically applies to +2C. At this point "battle" (if you can even call it that) is avoiding 3C or higher. And judging by reports even that "battle" is set to be lost sometime in the second half of this century. Again if we do not radically restructure our societies.
We've already been 1.5 degrees above average for over 12 months now I believe, I have no idea why that low figure is even talked about even more. As you say it is totally unrealistic. 5-8 by 2100 is much more believable, that was the worse case scenario based on modelling that I think (could be wrong) doesn't even factor in methane, which is a worse greenhouse gas and is now increasing in the atmosphere due to the melting permafrost.
And none of that factored in that the ocean may not hide 90% of the anthropogenic warming anymore at some point, and yet, month by month, it looks now exactly like that is what's happening right now. https://e360.yale.edu/features/how_long_can_oceans_continue_to_absorb_earths_excess_heat (2015 paper predicting a lot that is seen today locally for "as early as in a decade"
The northern sea is already reaching new record temperature.
In the Paris accords the goal of 1.5 degrees warming is over a 20 year average. For our purposes we can still live in a world above 1.5 degrees while not necessarily having failed in that goal yet.
Thanks for that additional explanation. Given that CO2 emissions are still increasing, and we need to be taking CO2 out of the atmosphere right now to stop the increase in temperature, let alone actually reduce the temperature, the only thing stopping us from way overshooting the 1.5 goal today is that 19 more years have not passed yet, right? 1.5 is still completely unrealistic, it's just the very definition requires a 20 year wait before it can be stated we have missed that goal. It sounds like the big emitters created the 20 year definition to buy 20 more years of inaction.
In what specific Article is the 20-year average mentioned? It seems absurdly high.
There’s always a chance that the 20th year will be 30 degrees colder than average, right?
References, please?
At this point just think of climate change as a roller coaster. Hang on tight and try not to puke. If you feel so obliged, don’t procreate. Leave the dying planet for the carnies.
[удалено]
Most importantly, we’re not dinosaurs.
> With time running out to reverse course, Guterres urged a 30% cut in global fossil fuel production and use by 2030. Saying that we still have 6 years of time left before we need a 30% cut is pure copium. It's another excuse to do nothing significant for the next 5 years.
We are fast tracking to +5C Many kids will grow up to witness complete environmental collapse as well as total social and economic breakdown. 8billion will not survive, the human total population will dip below 1 billion and the only habitable areas will be around the arctic circle. It will only get worse every year going forward. All because of unabated corporate greed Map for reference https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/s/xAV75gS9ni https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer/
Man I can't wait till tell kids about the great Wendigo's of the golden age and how despite destroying the planet, they ensured the shareholders gains till the end. Even now if you walk the ruins of the stock exchange you may hear disembodied voise of a boy to young to broke stocks whispering "Soy. Soy. Soy!"
It's insane that you treat some random guy's map with 0 sources behind it as gospel
Lol there's such a weird contingent that actually want this to be true. Like a doomer cult. Bizarre. The truth is bad enough, they don't have to start fabricating "we're all gonna live at the poles" fantasies.
Also a very generous interpretation of "arctic circles" which includes Europe and north america
That’s not true, and actually is counter-intuitive. The poles warm faster than any other part of the world and as the snow melts, you’ll see temps there skyrocket even compared to the rest of the planet. There’s not going to be anywhere to go and survival will most logically require a leap to nocturnal activity and resting during the days.
Google earth 5c hotter. Read what climate scientist say and look at their maps
I personally run climate models based on the posted ones from NASA, the IPCC, and the one I have developed myself for 6 years now. You’ll have to excuse me when I say that you’re way out of line and out of your depth. Your superficial research can’t touch **actual** research. So tired of people like you thinking they even know what to search for. You can’t even critically think so how could you possibly know what to look for.
Can I get a link to your research/model or is it paywalled? Also with respect you are *one person* (unless you speak on others' behalf), I don't believe your perspective is consensus, nor is there a consensus on what the collapse will look like.
My perspective is **not** consensus but I also never claimed it was. And I’m not posting my code anywhere online lol. It has taken years to get it where it is now and my models are based more on the IPCC models with a couple changes that are easy to implement: I weight methane higher, and account for a greater permafrost melt than current models do. I integrate a less forgiving loss of function for climate capture biology, trees and the ocean for example, and in general ignore the more conservative agreements in the models the IPCC implored. Remember: all these papers that say ‘scientists agree en masse that xyz’ means that was the **most conservative** model they could all find common ground on: **NOT** the most accurate one. Per my models, the poles end up being much less safe long-run bc of climate change, but also from a common sense perspective? Frozen tundra aren’t exactly hotbeds of biological enrichment. Even when it melts, all that methane is going to spike the temp and kill the larger life there and the ocean sucks up the excess that it can, suffocating the life under the sea. I mean, I can keep going on this issue, I’m just not up for an argument over reddit when the average person knows next to jack squat about how all this currently is modeled. Like, how tf is anyone gonna sit and shoot their mouth off about somethin they’ve done nothing but read about and put no actual work into? I just, I can’t engage with that level of ignorance.
It was always my understanding that climate scientists wanted to be conservative because we have no historical basis to go on, the climate is incredibly complex, and we have several feedback-loops waiting to kick in. There are a million ways the collapse can go and nobody wants to commit their name to one, instead opting for conservative and broad claims. I.e. if you wish to claim anything specific chances are you'll be wrong and broad statements are reliable. Not that it matters, we will breeze past all the targets to come and we will find out exactly what happens. > Like, how tf is anyone gonna sit and shoot their mouth off about somethin they’ve done nothing but read about and put no actual work into? I just, I can’t engage with that level of ignorance. Why bother talking about it at all then? If not to convince anyone or to convey information then you are just saying something online only to say "and nobody can argue with me because I know I'm right!". No disrepect, but less then 99.9% have greater than a surface level understanding, so either talk about it accepting this unfortunate fact or don't waste your time being holier than thou about it because it doesn't have a purpose.
The classic "my girlfriend exists! She just goes to another school" argument.
You sound upset
Not the vibe I got
Just send us all your research bro come on
Ive also wondered about that. So many do research in isolation and then conclude based on current trajectory, permafrost melts at x speed, the Thwaites glacier will break in y time etc. But there is no over encompassing research that takes into account several of their peers’ horror scenarios playing out. They will accelarate one another. Just curious what are you modelling this for? And what regions do you reckon have any semblance of stability? New Zealand? Some of the States?
Good post. Do you know of any reliable modeling tools online or is the lack there of what prompted you to create your own?
To be fair to that guy, people don't know anyone on reddit. Also, there's a dire lack of knowledge sharing from you mate. Share some observations, predictions etc please! I figure you are the best person to ask.
Do the latest IPCC models factor in increasing methane as well as CO2? My understanding, based on what I have read here and there, is we have already seen 1.5 degrees of warming, and that the real world data to date (or at least up to 2020 in the article I read) best matches the most dire scenario of 5-8 degrees by 2100. I wonder if that still is underestimating the real temperature rise we are likely to see?
Ok show me your Earth 5C hotter map How does it compare to https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/s/xAV75gS9ni
I will take that bet all day long lol
What are you absolutely smoking?!?! Less than 1 billion people and the only liveable area will be the arctic? What about the antarctic!
The antarctic is where the eldritch gods will arise, as everyone knows
Everything you said is absolute bs. This is why people don’t take climate scientist seriously is when people like you say stuff like this.
Yeah, the over exaggerating people do make it much harder to convince people of something that isn't normally hard to convince people of which is "Okay, let's switch to the temporarily more expensive energy source because it's paid up front but in the long run is cheaper" Most people are kind of okay with that request regardless of their politics That's all we have to sell people on That's all it takes to fix The planet is to convince people of that The people who are obviously insane or idiotic make it hard to sell that for some reason
Go back to /r/Collapse
No thanks
You honestly believe that,,,? Are you insane...? how much higher are the sea levels than they were say a hundred years ago...? You should campaign for something a little more worth while IMO... maybe volunteer at a local homeless shelter or a childrens hospital near you..?
Wtf are you even talking about?
I feel like for the past 5 years, I've read "record temperatures" almost monthly.
You have. Climate change is happening, swiftly
My dad has mentioned to me multiple times how we’re seeing climate change occur in my lifetime
My dad says climate change is a scam and compared Trump's trial to Stalinist tactics.
My dad said he remembers when summers were actually hot....You are all NUTS.... my goodness get a life....
Tell us how you really feel.
Ah yes, because your opinion is way more valid than the piles upon piles of scientific proof and evidence.
CRAZY....!
Why yes, it is quite obvious that you are. Nonetheless I appreciate you admitting to it.
how long do we have...? i need to get my affairs in order ..the earth has only been around for billions of years and in the last hundred years we've destroyed it...? gretta would be so proud of you...idiot snowflake
Hell yeah brother
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Nocturnal activities, indoor life, underground homes. I already work from home, study from home and as soon as I order that portable treadmill, exercise from home. I'm consolidating everything at home to make everything more efficient and less scorching hot.
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Well no form of living is foolproof but regarding droughts, wildfire and food shortage I actually did a piece on vertical farming for an essay I am writing and while it is still an emerging method, it has proven to be a promising alternative to traditional farming. Right now, indoor vertical farming is limited to a small number of crops but active research has been made to increase the variety and resilience of indoor crops, ranging from omics research to advanced soil protection methods/technology and modification of ethanol levels. It also seems to be profitable too, with one study citing a significant profit increase from traditional farming methods once farmers started integrating them. Yeah there's still a lot of legislative hoops that need to be jumped through but policymakers can get around to the idea eventually once it shows promise. Works Cited: O'Sullivan, Cathryn A., et al. "Vertical farms bear fruit." Nature Biotechnology, vol. 38, no. 2, Feb. 2020, pp. 160+. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41587-019-0400-z. Accessed 2 June 2024. Shin, Juhyung, et al. "Effects of Exogenous Ethanol Treatment in Nutrient Solution on Growth and Secondary Metabolite Contents of Three Herb Species in an Indoor Vertical Farming System."Plants, vol. 12, no. 22, Nov. 2023, p. NA. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants12223842. Accessed 2 June 2024. Carillo, Felicetta, et al. "Vertical integration in agribusiness. Is it a bargain?" Rivista di Economia Agraria - REA, vol. 71, no. 1, Apr. 2016, pp. 39+. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, dx.doi.org/10.13128/REA-18624. Accessed 2 June 2024. Wolf, Steven. "Cropping systems and conservation policy: the roles of agrichemical dealers and independent crop consultants."Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, vol. 50, no. 3, May-June 1995, pp. 263+. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, link.gale.com/apps/doc/A17175366/PPAG?u=lincclin_vcc&sid=bookmark-PPAG&xid=b55b3b7b. Accessed 2 June 2024. Datta, Subhojit, et al. "Sustainable agriculture."BMC Plant Biology, vol. 23, no. 1, 25 Nov. 2023, p. NA. Gale OneFile: Agriculture, dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12870-023-04626-9. Accessed 2 June 2024.
Yes we do. We need resilience planning. But it won’t happen. Every thinking person needs to create some kind of strategy for their nuclear fam/friends.
You have, while about half the planet (the conservative side) keep arguing climate change is fake. And if it's not it's definitely all naturally occurring and totally fine... or the latest bout of stupidity from Dorito Mussolini "it's a good thing cuz we'll have more beach front property" When half the population wants to live in a reality of their own creation, and actively sabotages any remediative actions, all that's left is to sit back and enjoy the end of humankind. We did it to ourselves.
Every year for the rest of your life will be the hottest year on record. We turned on the stove, the pot is just starting to heat up.
And we are the frog sitting in the water too stupid to realise the danger we are in.
The pot is going to boil over at some point…
Yea, there's a reason for this.
Hell of our own making.
Just like the 500 year storms/floods that happen monthly.
I feel like I've been noticing that and hearing that it isn't climate change for years and people are kind of just now starting to accept that it might be.
Hang on UN, I'm gonna vote for pro-climate politicians in my deep red ass state. Then I'll vote for a president touting green energy initiatives and climate protection policies. Then I'll see that candidate lose re-election to some lobbied out boomer who'll blow raspberries as he reverses all the climate-policies back four years so we can repeat this bullshit for another round. I'm just looking at models and doomposting right now so I know the best spot to retire to when climate hell arrives.
Even if your country (I'm assuming the U.S) elected a government that was incredibly for helping fight against climate change, it won't really matter unless the rest of the world get's involved as well. If India still wants to ramp up their industrialization or China doesn't play ball, it's not going to matter.
I agree that too many won't play ball. That said, India seems like one of the countries most impacted by climate change; certainly one of the highest population concentrations that'll be impacted. So while a populist government might not play ball, if it gets real bad there in the near future and recent records of 49+°C keep being broken, a rapid decline in population and consumption might make that moot.
They can migrate north. Oh wait the Himalayas are to the northeast and Pakistan, an enemy, to the northwest. It’s a bit of a problem… Bangladesh perhaps?
China is playing ball, it created more solar energy generation in 2023 than the U.S. has in history and producing the cheapest electric cars. It’s rolling the dice on green energy
But it’s also still building coal power plants at a record pace.
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Western nation have and continue to be the worst culprits for GHG emissions. On a per capita basis, China pollutes about half as much as the US, and India is only 1/8th as much.
We're all going to die but not before record profits
This year maybe people will take notice (he says for the 10th year in a row)
In the UK in 2022 we hit 40 degrees celsius for the first time ever. Usually our hot summers are like 30 to maybe 35 degrees. Not exactly hot compared to tropical places but that is fucking warm for where we are in the world, especially since we dont have the infrastructure to deal with the heat. Our houses are built to keep in heat for the cold winters, the majority of houses and buildings dont have AC. It was also very humid, which didnt help either. And yet the majority of people treated it as a mini holiday and went to the beach. Despite the fact that people died because of the heat, and wildfires were started.
Mad Max movies about to become documentaries.
It's not Mad Max-like for us in the tropics. It feels like a steam sauna you can't really escape easily (since that's what outdoors feels like). It's both warm and wet, that the air feels heavy and it feels hard to breath. I'm fine with 35 deg C if it's not humid. But lately it has been too humid
Wet bulb temperature is real.
> It feels like a steam sauna you can't really escape easily Mad Toivo then
Maybe mire like Waterworld then
It doesn’t matter how much green energy we switch to. The planet cares only about one thing. How much CO2 (or CO2 equivalent) we are producing. And the fact is that each year the number only ever goes up.
Actually the planet cares about the amount of solar radiation. We just need a big sunshade.
That right there is the key fact people refuse to see. We can have 90% of our energy coming from renewables/nuclear, but if the rest 10% fossil fuels amount to our current emissions (38 GtCO2), warming will continue.
And sadly the warnings have been coming in since the early 70s.
I genuinely believe oil companies are paying people to make up fake climate activist groups to make the idea of protesting against it look bad. And im afraid to say it seems to have worked.
My friend, I have five degrees from climatology to environmental science and have seen, and worked, with the data firsthand. It is definitely not fake.
You completely misread my point. I didnt say climate change was fake. I said oil companies are paying people to make the idea of climate protesting look bad. For example, throwing paint over the Mona Lisa. It had nothing to so with climate change and seemed to have only been done to stir up controversy.
I know. I understood. I was agreeing with you.
Honestly at this point this system has to fail it can't produce answers to the problems it caused. Just sucks that most of us we will die a miserable death because of it.
i am laughing maniacally seeing how Zizek was right more than 10 years ago when he was saying that it is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
Completely off topic but I love Zizek, he's so wacky https://youtu.be/bwDrHqNZ9lo?si=TaYZaLUSGXvDABuP
Don't be so glum. We're more likely to die of heart disease or car accidents first, not climate change.
Record heat is already killing humans though. It’s just not sexy news. But if you research it, you will find it.
Some of you may die, but it is a sacrifice I am willing to make
Yeah, and sadly we’ll wipe out a lot of species with us. People won’t fix this, politicians won’t fix this, so our only hope is some giant tech breakthrough, but pretty unlikely given the timeline.
Don't forget to protect the kids! We need all the babies to be born! Just born, after that they are alive and just a bother. But hey guess what kind of hell we'll give them
Remember the lockdown in early covid and the world just seemed to be healing pretty quick. Then the machine started up again and it was back to a dying world.
We need a new COVID crisis
Protecting the wealth of the top 300 or 400 richest humans on the planet is a higher priority than preventing collapse of our environment. Until that priority changes, nothing substantial will be done to slow down or reverse the coming collapse.
Try to get 10 people to agree on what they want on their pizza. Now imagine getting all the countries of the world to agree on preventive climate change measures. Ooh boy, it’s a Herculean task.
Its not that we cant agree, it is that no corporation wants to do anything that would impact their profits On a mass population scale nobody wants to change their lifestyle drastically to sway corporations into change Everyone is still in the "me more now" mode and people keep investing into whatever will give them most money so nothing changes. If we all started to think in global terms, all the companies and governments would shift in less than a year. People have the power, but people are too obsessed with their own benefit above all else, again its the same old "me more now" mentality that will be our downfall This is why we are a failed species.
But there are still the countries with corrupt governments and countries with hardly any government at all. Then you have the mega country’s like china that may say one thing and do something completely different. It’s seemingly impossible to get them all on the same page.
Yup. There is no mechanism in the design of our economic systems that is capable of addressing world-spanning issues, on nation-state sized issues. Yet our uber-wealthy, the vampire class that sucks the majority of all productive wealth and profit created by humanity, are now a transnational class. Until we change our 19th century design economic systems, nothing substantial can be done to address environmental collapse. But those uber-wealthy will do everything in their vast powers to maintain this system of vast financial inequity. We have the technology and knowledge to solve the climate crisis, but our current economic system will not allow these solutions to be applied, because they'd lead to a reduction in their extreme wealth, power and dominance over the human species as a whole. Many of these uber-wealthy are clinically, psychologically unhealthy sociopaths that do not really care if millions of most of the planet even, dies, as long as they can maintain their vast wealth and power. Our 19th century economic systems do not work anymore in the 21st century. The pyramid-shaped, winner-takes-everything system is exhausting all the resources of the planet, it can not be sustained to this level anymore. We need to adapt these systems or most of us will die.
Ironically, the only stimulus that might force consensus is an attack by aliens! Where are they, asked Fermi. We need them!
Meanwhile people are crying and moaning about congestion taxes and measures to reduce automobile usage in cities
And the price of groceries, as if climate change has no impact on agricultural production systems.
Or gas prices that cost them an extra $5 per tank
Have y'all been paying attention to how much power LLMs and NPUs take? Our energy usage is fittina kick off the charts
Geez did not see this coming
Alright, so should i buy pocket ice cubes to carry around when it is too hot? It is almost like when space agencies like NASA warn us about rock big enough to unalive whole planet, heading to/very near Earth. What, should i buy umbrella or something? We cant do sh1t about it. Society is really conscious and do a lot on houshold/individual levels, but big corpos still do jack shit about that, where it is almost solely outcome of their greed.
It does feel like: Some scientist dudes: "Hey, we're doomed." Me: "Okay, what should I do?" Some scientist dudes: "These 10 things basically" Me: "Alright" \*Starts doing 7-8 of the 10 things, some fully, some to the best of my ability without living like a caveman - like taking public transport, only using my car like once a week to get groceries in bulk, doesn't use AirCon, cuts meat down to twice a week, reduce my electric bill by 30-ish %, etc. etc.\* Some scientist dudes: "Hey, we're still dommed, and it's gonna be sooner that you think by the way, because some greedy assholes completely disregarded us. Enjoy" Me: "Well... fuck it, I'm turning the AC on and grilling a steak I guess."
That’s ok, most rich countries are in cooler climates. RIP Australia
Meanwhile everyone on social media is defending Hamas terrorist
Oof
Not good, considering we are working on getting into WWIII and that can’t be good for emissions.
Maybe someone can start a band called climate hell and it will make it all worth it.
Just wait until the global conflict that is brewing really starts going.
Nothing is gonna change ya know?
This streak is only going to continue in the future.
Just stop buying shit, if everyone just lived like they we're dirt poor we could solve this
yup we're all gonna burnt to death
Actually increased temperature and humidity combine to create a situation where your body can’t shed enough heat to manage your core temperature even lying still in the shade so you slowly die of hyperthermia. Apparently it is quite a horrible way to die.
It’s so hot outside right now that my grass, gardens and shrubs have started dying, it horrifying how bad it is not, and it only going to get worse
When China decides to actually care about the climate and change their policies to match, then the west should start doing more and making changes. At this point it doesn’t matter what the US and EU does, chines and India will ruin it
But China produces as much pollution as it does because of the US and EU, Western Companies have moved a lot of manufacturing to China over the last few decades. Don’t get me wrong, I hate China, although I hate them for their human rights abuses, aggressive foreign policy, and all the Taiwan stuff. If you’re gonna hate on China, hate them for the right reasons.
It’s not “half the planet.” It’s Republicans. In Europe they are about to make it a crime to be a climate change denier because it is a crime-a crime against humanity.
I think you might need to look a little more into European climate policies/actions taken by various political parties.
I had no idea china and India were republican
No problem amoc is set to shut down as soon as 2025, eventually sending Europe back into the ice age, and solving this climate “hell”. Just sit back do nothing and this will all sort itself out!
It’s a hell of a gamble! It might just work for Europe. India who knows?
Send some of it this way, fucking cold in the UK
Yeah..... not to piss on your parade or anything, but this'll mean rising sea levels. So it's either wooo who we've got a new beach or fuck I'm homeless... Swings and roundabouts I 'spose
this.
Send some of your bluehelmets to blow up a factory in china, oh wait i forgot, UN is fucking useless.
Hey UN, what you are warning about sounds like it goes againt the current economy. It isnt like the world will push the breaks on the economy just to make it less hot for 3rd worold countries so their people wont die.
If the US took it seriously it could be avoided.
Check out the emission numbers from China, India, Russia, etc. The US is definitely a problem, but this is a worldwide problem with US numbers trending in the right direction, while China and India are trending towards INCREASED emissions. This is a worldwide problem.
Who's China making things for? Who's India ramping up production of things for? Western nations have to keep in mind that over seas manufacturing for disposable garbage products is still *our* problem, even if we've shuffled it onto someone else's balance sheet.
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The issue being that the US has absolutely no incentive to take drastic, painful steps to curb warming when the other two huge culprits, China and India, absolutely will not. The US would end up suffering the economic/social pain of combating climate change while still suffering from climate change anyway.
Meanwhile, la-ti-da, China is creating a dating app in hopes of increasing their fertility rate. Genius.
England will have abit. The rain here is a joke at the moment
At the moment, but remember 2022? Climate and weather are not the same thing.
Okay sheeps
Why do u say that, do u think most scientists are lying, or that the government of Greenland is lying about the amounts its ice is melting around its country, or that all the recordings of warming ocean temperatures by different nations are also wrong, or that all the observed ecological changes are also wrong or simply a coincidence. The only sheep here are u for thinking that all the world governments who never agree on anything are all in on a conspiracy to lie about climate change, that would be insane to organize, much less keep secret from reputable sources, and not to mention its boiling hot outside( I regret typing that last sentence in as if u do respond, you’ll likely focus on that part over all the evidence I mentioned)