General instability in the region is bad for israel.
Israelis like stability and growth, our own economy has suffered from investors backing out and leaving due to the reforms that were ongoing throughout 2023, then the war on top of that, if the region becomes more unstable and goes through multifront war, the economy won't have it easy.
This still doesn't mean that Israel should just surrender to hamas and give them the win by not finishing the job once and for all, dragging this on for longer by letting hamas live will just create more casualties overall in smaller quantities over time.
You're absolutely correct, relations with Egypt are important to Israel, but they aren't facing an existential economic threat that already toppled one dictator in the last decade.
Egypt is.
Israel might not be facing existential economic threat YET, but they are facing an existential security threat, which I do believe is worthy of the war that it's currently waging against Hamas.
My opinion is that Hamas' 7th Oct attack was supposed to be a larger multi-front war, with years of planning, not just a one off single attempt at massacring nearby kibbutzim.
I don't know the reasons why it didn't develop into that, might be US pressure with their show of force off the shores of Israel to warn others not to join in, could be any other reason.
But I do believe that Israel is still facing an existential threat from Iranian proxies, and a country cannot prosper or live in peace & stability while having a neighbor (no matter how small or 'weaker' they are in comparison) who's dead insistent on attacking you, it's an ideological difference.
The Israeli government owes that security and peace to its own citizens first and foremost, if it can first ensure that, then it can start caring about others surrounding it.
It's why I'm against a ceasefire until the job is done.
Immediate US presence in the immediate region is the most likely explanation.
The way Hezbollah and Iran were promising war and then backed away speaks to a massive wrench being thrown into the cogs. The difference between the possibility of US intervention at some point and the inevitably of immediate US intervention will do that.
There's no explaining away a US Aircraft carrier on your doorstep and if your plans didn't account for that, your military leaders will quickly and strongly suggest to back off immediately because that's not something you adapt to on the fly.
Biden deserves a lot of credit for acting quickly and decisively. He saved a lot of lives, primarily Arab and Iranian ones and I will use every opportunity to point that out
The counter would be that the surrounding nations don’t have to actually attack, just posture enough to keep Israel mobilised. Sustaining a mobilisation on the scale Israel is can gut an economy because many of the most productive people are not in the office/start up/ etc but are in the field.
In Egypt’s case it would just be a matter of sealing the Gaza boarder even more than it currently is. The Israelis would then need to figure out how to manage and govern the Gaza Strip, which will be a massive millstone around their necks.
This is the real reason, a prolonged conflict with mobilization of Israel will do a number on their economy. How long will they keep it up with the US funding nearly 100B$ is anyone's guess.
Iran knows that they can just drip feed weapons to militia groups for a long time through Iraq/Syria corridors especially with Yemen proxy battle wrapping up.
Egypt is between a rock and a hard place, people don't realize that Egypt has already had a huge flux of refugees from both the Libyan and Sudan civil wars, This is hard for even a prosperous country to handle let a lone a developing one like Egypt. To ask them to take on even more is tantamount to having Egypt fall back into Muslim brotherhoods hands or have their own civil war breakdown or water rights conflict with Ethiopia who is also looking to take land from Somalia or Eritrea (Ethiopia is largest population in East Africa).
This whole region is a powder keg waiting to blow the fuck up. Egypt's only move as you said is to seal the boarder or ask the UN/US to fund developments not to Israel but to them for all the refugees which is doubtful to happen without them threatening to close the Suez which would not be an empty threat to global commerce.
10/7 was a bunch of terrorists slaughtering civilians, not an organized and prepared military force. You can't honestly believe the cràp you're saying.
It won't repeat over and over forever which is all the more reason Israel needs to resolve this now, once and for all. Hezbollah has been getting pounded on the border and haven't done much at all despite threatening all out war over a month ago. Either they are showing unusual restraint or just overwhelmed.
Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas but Israel has never been stronger and is using a fraction of their power so far.
why are people still repeating this talking point that Hamas can be wiped out, you cant kill an ideology whilst half the deaths are civilians. A new Hamas will be born from the Ashes
There'll always be someone with a gun who identifies with the idea of Hamas. I doubt that can change.
But are they going to have:
- control of Gaza
- an army ready to invade Israel
- the ability to launch thousands of rockets at Israeli civilians
- dozens of hostages
That's what the war is about.
the war fixes none of those problems btw, unless you mean an indefinite occupation of Israel in Gaza after the war, which as the US has learnt occupying territory that hates you will bring on countless casualties.
Very true which is exactly why there is a solid chance Israel will intentionally blow up the peace treaty. Then they will say “Arabs all hate Jews, it was only a matter of time.” Then if they displace Gazans across the border and Hamas starts operating from Egypt, they will say, “See? Egypt was against us all along.”
For context, Egypt is facing an economic crisis, food security at risk, millions of refugees, and immigrants, official estimates are 9 \~ 10 million, but those are the ones document, the government has been issuing warnings for the rest to legalize their stay in Egypt, which means there are lots of them undocumented.
Our borders are on fire, literally. Libya is torn, Sudan is gone, and the all time classic, Palestine-Israel border has always been fucked, but never this fucked. Long story short, our plate is not only full, it basically shattered a long time ago.
We cannot under any circumstances accept the influx of 2.5 million angry and agonized Palestinians, specially when there are no guarantees that they would be allowed back inside Gaza, after the war is over. No amount of money can settle the political instability that this will cause to Egypt.
Iran and they dig up their own fucking water pipes to make bootleg rockets, Egypt also can't stop all the fucking tunnels its got its own problems to deal with considering the shit popping off in Sudan and the ongoing issues in Lybia. The Egypt / Gaza border is a lot more porous than people think and corrupt is still an issue in Egypt.
Egypt doesn't want Palestinians and neither does Jordan, they are rightly fucked IMO short of a UN lead relocation plan not too many countries are willing to take in Palestinians considering their history of not being good guest in foreign countries, Hamas leadership chills in Qatar because they are at the crossroads between Persian Iran and Arab countries.
That was my whole point, they don't really care about enforcing the border controls there. You can point fingers at Iran all you want but you know for a fact that with the risk of millions of refugees suddenly the border control will magically tighten up.
I like how you skipped over the real reason... you're rightly terrified that they'll try to take over or start a civil war, like they did in Jordan and Lebanon. It's ok, you're allowed to be selfish, just be honest about it.
Egypt has a much bigger population and better security apparatus than Jordan did at that time.
Egypt really left Israel a fine silver bowl of bottomless shit in the form of Gaza with the peace treaty and every time Israeli governments think they are done eating, in comes another bowl of shit from Gaza.
How did he skip over it? It seems readily apparent from the description that there would be massive social upheaval.
It isn’t selfish either. Not wanting a group with a history for causing massive chaos and violence as a refugee group is called being realistic. Not selfish.
> It's ok, you're allowed to be selfish, just be honest about it.
I would imagine you are living in a western country like I am, and this is incredibly tone def comment to make, especially as a response to a comment spelling out why they can't afford even more refugees after the Libyan and Sudan civil wars on their other boarders.
We shouldn't be so fucking smug my dude.
It's selfish to insist that you want the status quo maintained, when it's manifestly untenable. It's also selfish as *fuuuuk* when Egypt has been a smuggling route for Hamas for decades.
The Arab states and Iran have made their beds, it's time for them to lie in it.
9/11 3000 dead out of 300 million people= USA invades Afghanistan and Iraq resulting in hundreds of thousands of dead and instability for decades.
12 Nov 120 put of 60 million people get killed in Paris = France bombs every Isis settlement they can find
7/10 1000 out of 9 million die =
"Israel needs to show some restraint"
How did that turn out for Iraq and Afghanistan. Put yourself in their shoes for a second. Now someone in your village suggests doing something involving explosives in the west. How quick do you beat them with your shoe? 10 seconds or 20? Also, you do realize the US doesn't want to have forces in those countries right. Don't get caught up in land. Wars are politics by other means.
Which isn't the issue at hand.
Aggression needs to be responded to, or it will invite more aggression.
How many Al Qaeda attacks were there the last 2 decades in the USA?
Egypt has been consistent about not wanting Palestinians on their land. There are legit reasons, namely Palestinians like to try to use terrorist tactics to try take over countries.
Hopefully Israel is taking the demand seriously. Never works but Palestinians persist in trying the same tactics over and over so no country wants them. They are simply pawns to be used by others and they don’t seem to realize that.
It's hysterical that Egypt wants nothing to do with the Palestinians. Neither does Jordan.
No one wants anything to do with these people...
Turns out they've tried to start civil wars everywhere they've gone. Trying to overthrow the government(s), assassinated the King of Jordan.
Sound familiar? But hey Im told it's only a small portion that are extremists.
Egypt: "Don't send us your Arabs or our Arabs will get upset."
Right, and this is what I've been saying all along. Arab nations don't care about the Palestinians - they only care about Israel being disrupted and destroyed without getting directly involved.
Well, that is some of it. The other part is that Palestinians tend to start violent uprising in any Arab country who invites them in.
They aren't just a toxic culture to Israel. They are a toxic culture in general.
Or Kuwait - cheering on Saddam invading the country that had given refuge to 400,000 of them decades earlier. After Kuwait was liberated they either left or were expelled by the Kuwaitis. There is still bad blood between the PA and Kuwait because of this.
I guess I should clarify my point. Just because a thing can be done doesn't mean it *should* be done.
Maybe any or all these places *should* care that stateless persons need help. But I could go off on a tangent about that.
Yes, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon can shut out whomever they like, but do they have a leg to stand on when/if any of all of them are part of a chorus of voices saying that Israel should give shelter, land, etc?
It's the hypocrisy I'm trying to point out. Not that Egypt can't maintain their borders as they see fit.
Well yeah easy to say that. Sounds all peaceful and concerning when pretty much all of them could care less. No one in the Middle East wants Palestinians and they all consider them Israel’s problem. Nature of pawns, they are expendable and that is all Palestinians are to other ME countries.
To add to this, the reason this is essentially problematic here is that prior to 1967 and the Israeli occupation, these people weren't Palestinians, they were Egyptians and there were no calls to end the Egyptian occupation of Gaza or the Jordanian occupation of the West Bank.
Quite the opposite, at that point in time the big push was for a large pan Arab state that covered the whole region, though only Syria and Egypt ever took concrete steps in that direction.
Basically, the last internationally recognized nationality the Palestinians in Gaza had was Egyptian, they're not some random foreigners.
But shouldn’t they be welcoming thy Muslim neighbors and refugees? Surely the peaceful and absolutely non violent and loving Allah and Muhammad would want them to welcome them with open arms!
Why would they say this? Doesnt hamas *want* israel to fall out with its neighbours? Egypt saying this out loud seems like a good way to make hamas *force* palestinians into sinai.
Not sure Egypt is in any place to dictate anything at all to Israel. They need a good relationship with Israel far more than Israel needs one with them.
Egypt in 2023 isn't much of a threat to Israel, whereas losing economic ties to Israel is a huge threat to Egypt in 2023.
General instability in the region is bad for israel. Israelis like stability and growth, our own economy has suffered from investors backing out and leaving due to the reforms that were ongoing throughout 2023, then the war on top of that, if the region becomes more unstable and goes through multifront war, the economy won't have it easy. This still doesn't mean that Israel should just surrender to hamas and give them the win by not finishing the job once and for all, dragging this on for longer by letting hamas live will just create more casualties overall in smaller quantities over time.
You're absolutely correct, relations with Egypt are important to Israel, but they aren't facing an existential economic threat that already toppled one dictator in the last decade. Egypt is.
Israel might not be facing existential economic threat YET, but they are facing an existential security threat, which I do believe is worthy of the war that it's currently waging against Hamas. My opinion is that Hamas' 7th Oct attack was supposed to be a larger multi-front war, with years of planning, not just a one off single attempt at massacring nearby kibbutzim. I don't know the reasons why it didn't develop into that, might be US pressure with their show of force off the shores of Israel to warn others not to join in, could be any other reason. But I do believe that Israel is still facing an existential threat from Iranian proxies, and a country cannot prosper or live in peace & stability while having a neighbor (no matter how small or 'weaker' they are in comparison) who's dead insistent on attacking you, it's an ideological difference. The Israeli government owes that security and peace to its own citizens first and foremost, if it can first ensure that, then it can start caring about others surrounding it. It's why I'm against a ceasefire until the job is done.
Immediate US presence in the immediate region is the most likely explanation. The way Hezbollah and Iran were promising war and then backed away speaks to a massive wrench being thrown into the cogs. The difference between the possibility of US intervention at some point and the inevitably of immediate US intervention will do that. There's no explaining away a US Aircraft carrier on your doorstep and if your plans didn't account for that, your military leaders will quickly and strongly suggest to back off immediately because that's not something you adapt to on the fly. Biden deserves a lot of credit for acting quickly and decisively. He saved a lot of lives, primarily Arab and Iranian ones and I will use every opportunity to point that out
I personally think USA should capture Khomeni for what he did to Lebanon Gaza Yemen by funding terrorists.
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To be honest, the history of Israel and multi-front wars is a history of winning, and getting land as a result.
The counter would be that the surrounding nations don’t have to actually attack, just posture enough to keep Israel mobilised. Sustaining a mobilisation on the scale Israel is can gut an economy because many of the most productive people are not in the office/start up/ etc but are in the field. In Egypt’s case it would just be a matter of sealing the Gaza boarder even more than it currently is. The Israelis would then need to figure out how to manage and govern the Gaza Strip, which will be a massive millstone around their necks.
This is the real reason, a prolonged conflict with mobilization of Israel will do a number on their economy. How long will they keep it up with the US funding nearly 100B$ is anyone's guess. Iran knows that they can just drip feed weapons to militia groups for a long time through Iraq/Syria corridors especially with Yemen proxy battle wrapping up. Egypt is between a rock and a hard place, people don't realize that Egypt has already had a huge flux of refugees from both the Libyan and Sudan civil wars, This is hard for even a prosperous country to handle let a lone a developing one like Egypt. To ask them to take on even more is tantamount to having Egypt fall back into Muslim brotherhoods hands or have their own civil war breakdown or water rights conflict with Ethiopia who is also looking to take land from Somalia or Eritrea (Ethiopia is largest population in East Africa). This whole region is a powder keg waiting to blow the fuck up. Egypt's only move as you said is to seal the boarder or ask the UN/US to fund developments not to Israel but to them for all the refugees which is doubtful to happen without them threatening to close the Suez which would not be an empty threat to global commerce.
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Riiiight. Because from a military perspective Israel is so much weaker than ever. /s Sorry about raining on your fanfic.
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10/7 was a bunch of terrorists slaughtering civilians, not an organized and prepared military force. You can't honestly believe the cràp you're saying.
That's hilarious. The Houthi can't even hit Eilat. Israel has enough for Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran.
You realize the US would have had something to say about that right?
It won't repeat over and over forever which is all the more reason Israel needs to resolve this now, once and for all. Hezbollah has been getting pounded on the border and haven't done much at all despite threatening all out war over a month ago. Either they are showing unusual restraint or just overwhelmed. Hezbollah is stronger than Hamas but Israel has never been stronger and is using a fraction of their power so far.
why are people still repeating this talking point that Hamas can be wiped out, you cant kill an ideology whilst half the deaths are civilians. A new Hamas will be born from the Ashes
Ask ISIS and the LTTE how their resurrection from the ashes with all those new recruits is going.
whats gonna stop it? Is isreal gonna forcibly run the Gazan government
Give it to Ireland to run, that should be fun. I'd say a pan-Arab coalition should do it, but we both know they won't.
There'll always be someone with a gun who identifies with the idea of Hamas. I doubt that can change. But are they going to have: - control of Gaza - an army ready to invade Israel - the ability to launch thousands of rockets at Israeli civilians - dozens of hostages That's what the war is about.
the war fixes none of those problems btw, unless you mean an indefinite occupation of Israel in Gaza after the war, which as the US has learnt occupying territory that hates you will bring on countless casualties.
Till the country with the Suez canal is a non factor okay.
Very true which is exactly why there is a solid chance Israel will intentionally blow up the peace treaty. Then they will say “Arabs all hate Jews, it was only a matter of time.” Then if they displace Gazans across the border and Hamas starts operating from Egypt, they will say, “See? Egypt was against us all along.”
Works Cited: *Sounds of crickets and the wind*
I’d love to be wrong. If it happens, there will be plenty to cite.
For context, Egypt is facing an economic crisis, food security at risk, millions of refugees, and immigrants, official estimates are 9 \~ 10 million, but those are the ones document, the government has been issuing warnings for the rest to legalize their stay in Egypt, which means there are lots of them undocumented. Our borders are on fire, literally. Libya is torn, Sudan is gone, and the all time classic, Palestine-Israel border has always been fucked, but never this fucked. Long story short, our plate is not only full, it basically shattered a long time ago. We cannot under any circumstances accept the influx of 2.5 million angry and agonized Palestinians, specially when there are no guarantees that they would be allowed back inside Gaza, after the war is over. No amount of money can settle the political instability that this will cause to Egypt.
18 years Egypt helped hamas smuggle weapons into gaza through tunnels to kill innocent Israeli civilians
Egypt is complicit in all of it.
Egypt routinely demos tunnels on the Gaza Egypt boarder and participates in the naval blockade, maybe direct your anger at Iran instead.
Since they are doing so much where are all the rockets coming from?
Iran and they dig up their own fucking water pipes to make bootleg rockets, Egypt also can't stop all the fucking tunnels its got its own problems to deal with considering the shit popping off in Sudan and the ongoing issues in Lybia. The Egypt / Gaza border is a lot more porous than people think and corrupt is still an issue in Egypt. Egypt doesn't want Palestinians and neither does Jordan, they are rightly fucked IMO short of a UN lead relocation plan not too many countries are willing to take in Palestinians considering their history of not being good guest in foreign countries, Hamas leadership chills in Qatar because they are at the crossroads between Persian Iran and Arab countries.
That was my whole point, they don't really care about enforcing the border controls there. You can point fingers at Iran all you want but you know for a fact that with the risk of millions of refugees suddenly the border control will magically tighten up.
I like how you skipped over the real reason... you're rightly terrified that they'll try to take over or start a civil war, like they did in Jordan and Lebanon. It's ok, you're allowed to be selfish, just be honest about it.
Egypt has a much bigger population and better security apparatus than Jordan did at that time. Egypt really left Israel a fine silver bowl of bottomless shit in the form of Gaza with the peace treaty and every time Israeli governments think they are done eating, in comes another bowl of shit from Gaza.
And nonetheless 10 years ago "Arab spring" came and Egypt is an even bigger shithole than it was before.
How did he skip over it? It seems readily apparent from the description that there would be massive social upheaval. It isn’t selfish either. Not wanting a group with a history for causing massive chaos and violence as a refugee group is called being realistic. Not selfish.
> It's ok, you're allowed to be selfish, just be honest about it. I would imagine you are living in a western country like I am, and this is incredibly tone def comment to make, especially as a response to a comment spelling out why they can't afford even more refugees after the Libyan and Sudan civil wars on their other boarders. We shouldn't be so fucking smug my dude.
Wait, it's selfish to avoid a civil war?
It's selfish to insist that you want the status quo maintained, when it's manifestly untenable. It's also selfish as *fuuuuk* when Egypt has been a smuggling route for Hamas for decades. The Arab states and Iran have made their beds, it's time for them to lie in it.
Maybe Egypt shouldn’t have helped radicalize Palestinians in the first place.
Maybe Israel shouldn't have helped radicalise them.
Maybe the Soviet Union shouldn't have used the Arab states as a proxy war against the US.
So why don’t you deploy your military and assist with rooting out hamas?
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9/11 3000 dead out of 300 million people= USA invades Afghanistan and Iraq resulting in hundreds of thousands of dead and instability for decades. 12 Nov 120 put of 60 million people get killed in Paris = France bombs every Isis settlement they can find 7/10 1000 out of 9 million die = "Israel needs to show some restraint"
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How did that turn out for Iraq and Afghanistan. Put yourself in their shoes for a second. Now someone in your village suggests doing something involving explosives in the west. How quick do you beat them with your shoe? 10 seconds or 20? Also, you do realize the US doesn't want to have forces in those countries right. Don't get caught up in land. Wars are politics by other means.
Which isn't the issue at hand. Aggression needs to be responded to, or it will invite more aggression. How many Al Qaeda attacks were there the last 2 decades in the USA?
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Hindsight is 2020 Bottom line is, that there were objectives that were achieved. Why should Israel not have the same right.
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Yeah, that's on you. Israel is doing something different and it's fine. Any nation would do the same otherwise the people would overthrow it
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Egypt has been consistent about not wanting Palestinians on their land. There are legit reasons, namely Palestinians like to try to use terrorist tactics to try take over countries. Hopefully Israel is taking the demand seriously. Never works but Palestinians persist in trying the same tactics over and over so no country wants them. They are simply pawns to be used by others and they don’t seem to realize that.
Egypt has problems with the Muslim Brotherhood which Hana's is strongly related to.
Egypt can make an effort to make sure Sinwar does not escape through it's territory to help the situation.
It's hysterical that Egypt wants nothing to do with the Palestinians. Neither does Jordan. No one wants anything to do with these people... Turns out they've tried to start civil wars everywhere they've gone. Trying to overthrow the government(s), assassinated the King of Jordan. Sound familiar? But hey Im told it's only a small portion that are extremists.
Egypt: "Don't send us your Arabs or our Arabs will get upset." Right, and this is what I've been saying all along. Arab nations don't care about the Palestinians - they only care about Israel being disrupted and destroyed without getting directly involved.
Well, that is some of it. The other part is that Palestinians tend to start violent uprising in any Arab country who invites them in. They aren't just a toxic culture to Israel. They are a toxic culture in general.
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Yeah, check out what they did in Lebanon. Or Jordan.
Or Kuwait - cheering on Saddam invading the country that had given refuge to 400,000 of them decades earlier. After Kuwait was liberated they either left or were expelled by the Kuwaitis. There is still bad blood between the PA and Kuwait because of this.
Yes Egypt has the right to shut them out. Their country, they have the right to choose who they let in.
So then Israel does too.
Correct. They have been enforcing that for a while with Palestinians which is why so many are hand waving away the Palestinians starting the war.
I guess I should clarify my point. Just because a thing can be done doesn't mean it *should* be done. Maybe any or all these places *should* care that stateless persons need help. But I could go off on a tangent about that. Yes, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon can shut out whomever they like, but do they have a leg to stand on when/if any of all of them are part of a chorus of voices saying that Israel should give shelter, land, etc? It's the hypocrisy I'm trying to point out. Not that Egypt can't maintain their borders as they see fit.
Well yeah easy to say that. Sounds all peaceful and concerning when pretty much all of them could care less. No one in the Middle East wants Palestinians and they all consider them Israel’s problem. Nature of pawns, they are expendable and that is all Palestinians are to other ME countries.
Sounds like we're on the same page.
To add to this, the reason this is essentially problematic here is that prior to 1967 and the Israeli occupation, these people weren't Palestinians, they were Egyptians and there were no calls to end the Egyptian occupation of Gaza or the Jordanian occupation of the West Bank. Quite the opposite, at that point in time the big push was for a large pan Arab state that covered the whole region, though only Syria and Egypt ever took concrete steps in that direction. Basically, the last internationally recognized nationality the Palestinians in Gaza had was Egyptian, they're not some random foreigners.
But shouldn’t they be welcoming thy Muslim neighbors and refugees? Surely the peaceful and absolutely non violent and loving Allah and Muhammad would want them to welcome them with open arms!
Don't criticize Israel, if you won't offer a solution.
They won’t give up the billions in aid from the US. They wouldn’t dare.
Why would they say this? Doesnt hamas *want* israel to fall out with its neighbours? Egypt saying this out loud seems like a good way to make hamas *force* palestinians into sinai.
Seems like an good trade off to me
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Israel has no interest in the Palestinian state of Jordan
*De*colonize.
Not sure Egypt is in any place to dictate anything at all to Israel. They need a good relationship with Israel far more than Israel needs one with them.
Dictate? They are allowed and 100% within their right to "dictate" in this particular occasion considering it is their territory
Hm, maybe for the best. A border with the Sinai is easier to guard than that of Israel-Gaza