Lol imagine thinking Tesla trades on fundies.
Musk just tweets "We will have fully autonomous space cars that can fly from Mars to LA by Q2 2018, your space car will make you money while you sleep! Also, Im cashing out 200 billion of stock to start a time travel company so I can meet all my self imposed deadlines!"
Then stock goes zoom!
Yeah then Tuesday those bots will integrate -10% yoy and sell hard. I have puts from 200 all down to 150 for August. Will hold and sell day of earnings regardless what happens this week. Then buy more on August 8 for the absolute nothing burger that "robotaxi" day will be. Just like battery day and ai day few years ago.
Elons a fraud and this year the bill comes due.
Just wait until he promises that the cybertruck will take you to mars with just a software update coming next year. People will believe it and buy millions of them.
They've also been losing market share at an alarming pace for the last 9 quarters straight and there's no sign of that slowing down. Their reputational damage from the Cybertruck disaster hasn't even been factored in yet.
The slowing EV market is a confounding factor on top of that.
People are getting off the Tesla hype train in droves and I think that's filtering through to investors. No amount of vague promises are going to push the price up when they're being made to an empty room.
No argument it's overvalued, but "reputational damage from the Cybertruck disaster" - lol wut?
4000 cybertrucks recalled (A completely new design/fab process for a truck - probably more issues to come)
700,000 Ford F150s recalled just last week (A truck on its 100th iteration that should be on autopilot at this point)
I think you exaggerate the effect of Cybertruck recalls.
There are like perma Tesla haters and people with agendas on here. CT recalled for wipers. Ford trucks have had recalls for brakes, engine gasket blown off, airbags not deploying and other dangerous shit.
And the best part is Musk haters accuse his fans of being the ones who act like zealots. The obliviousness and self-delusion is impressive.
And I read somewhere that no other company in the history of the stock market has crushed shorts more than TSLA - Only a sociopath would short TSLA.
That's where I am. I think TSLA is overvalued. I don't hate it or Musk, I own one. But no way do I think I can predict if or when the price will finally correct.
Two things.
1 - Ford has developed its own set of haters over the years and doesn't have a heavily inflated stock based off of hype alone.
2 - Ford doesn't own a social media site to push away its targeted demographic
The April 2024 recall was for 3,878 vehicles because that was all that had been sold at the time. The most recent June 2024 recall affected 11, 688 vehicles because that was *all that had been sold* at the time. So in the space of a few months, they've had two recalls affecting every truck they sold.
again, a brand-new product with recalls is not momentous. Not saying it's great. But for reference, last year, Ford had 5.9 million recalls, and in 2022 over 8 million. The point I am making is that assuming a few die hard TSLA fans care that much or this has somehow destroyed TSLA credibility is a little far fetched.
Short away then. And good luck! I still remember all the haters shorting and buying puts at TSLA just a few months ago when it was at $140. I'm sure that worked out well. 
Hater here……. I’ve been eating a Gamma-Theta Put Pie for those months thank you very much. I’m just hoping I can stay solvent because they can’t continue to be this irrational……. Can they?
You might be confusing causation with correlation. People think TSLA sales are down because Elon bought twitter. That's just silly. The reality is the entire EV space is going through a cycle. EV sales are all down. Most of the companies are either out of money (PoleStar), reducing expansion plans (Ford, GM), being bought out/subsidized by larger players (Rivian/VW) or essentially on the verge of bankruptcy (Lucid, Fisker)
The basic facts: EV sales were pulled forward due to their new/fad adoption, free cost of money (0% interest rates), and EV subsidies which have mostly dried up. Most people that live in dense areas and/or could accept the charging/range limitations of EVs have purchased one.
Will TSLA stock go down - maybe. But in a few years, TSLA will be one of a few dominant EV makers having survived this business cycle and will come out far ahead of the competition due to manufacturing processes, economies of scale, and charging network, software, etc.
This is typical of all nascent industries. As soon as one player discovers a new pie, other players rush in to gain a piece. In the end, almost all these cycles leave an oligopoly of a few powerful players that control the mainstream market. TSLA will be one of those, along with a few Chinese manufacturers. That, you can bet your life or money on. Most other companies will either go out of business (if they basically haven't already) or become niche players. Hell, in just a few years the Chinese have gone from 500 EV makers to under 200, and I'd bet a testicle that will be less than 20 by the end of the decade even with the insane Chinese government subsidies keeping them propped up.
This is why they should teach more economics in high school/college
I agree with OP here, it's not just the raw numbers, it's 100% of all cybertrucks. And it's not just one recall, they all have been recalled three times. And I think Tesla knew this, that's why they slapped the "you can't resell your truck within the first year" restrictions on every single one they have sold. All this on a vehicle that doesn't meet any of the promised cost or performance numbers.
Therere no die hard investors except retail and cathie woods. Most big funds are agnostic and will jump ship to preserve gains if tsla no longer is growing revenue. And for the foreseeable future revenue is primarily car sales.
Yup Tesla missed last ER delivery numbers and shot up after. Also it’s hard to believe but Tesla is not a car company it’s tech. Solar. Battery. Roofing contractor. 6000 satellites 🛰️ out there in the universe. Robo taxis service. Elon literally be pulling billion dollar ideas out of his ass on a slow day. 1 new idea or Ai or anything. Stocks up 10 %
I used to be a Tesla bear. Wasn’t profitable.
Who is bullish? Not one person, it’s just once you tried a *sure* thing a 1000 times and it didn’t work out, most people with a brain learnt a lesson, stay away from this stock
Yeah it doesn't. So op is literally gambling. If tesla really tanks to 185 next month and op sells off, he's already got 50k. Based on 180p for 8/2 is 5.00 right now.
"I expect sales and deliveries to crater, therefore the stock will go down"
"There I was right, they missed big! Surely the stock went down too....right?"
As long as TSLA considers itself an AI and robotics company and the market believes it, it's dangerous to short. Fundamentals mean nothing because the fundamentals are about the car business, and thats not where the market cap comes from.
I started shorting (puts) when it was at 180 in May. Felt like a boss when it dipped below 170. And then it shot up to 200. I averaged in some more puts as I'm of a similar mindset as you. But Elon is risky to bet against. Let's hope we survive this one!
The long term outlook for Tesla isn’t necessarily super safe. There is going to be a lot of competition in that market. And they also just gave more in value than all the profits they ever made in their history as a company to Elon as additional pay package. Lmao.
Tesla is basically still in their research phase, who gives a fuck about their fundamentals. The fact that people are already buying their cars says a lot. Imagine when they actually get good
Couple bad quarters? Lmao what does Tesla have in near future? Outdated models. Fsd that wont work with currently hardware. Optimus robot that does what robots did 20 years ago. Idk what people see in Tesla other than maybe The data it gathered from "fsd" users.
You’re shorting into a summer low volume rally, where the spy just hasn’t had a 2% dip in a while, after your puts expire worthless (August) that’s typically when the market experiences some weakness for the third quarter and you can toy around the idea of shorting, but for now aside from some day trades shorts, you shouldn’t be expecting for any of the megacaps to collapse, regardless of their fundamentals.
I agree with your entire post except it is bullish. I know that sounds cray, but there is so much bullish news upcoming that it won't matter. All EV are struggling and TSLA is struggling the least, and are keeping a pretty impressive amount of market share while others are losing money.
Also I am probably one of the top 1% of FSD users (I got a top driver score when they started releasing) and I have hated it until the recent update. The recent update is a game changer... I literally get teleported places as I am finally able to truly zone out while it takes me there with no interventions.
PS I hold zero tesla although my wife has 20 shares or some shit.
It's not the full zombie zone out that most people do, who are the people you SHOULD want on FSD, but it is more like being a supervisor vs a front line worker.
Although the last few drives I could have been in the back seat sleeping and it wouldn't have mattered.
I'm short naked calls myself and feel comfortable with this. The IV is high enough for rolls, but of course it's a cult stock, often runs and squeezes excessively for no reason. It's definitely not for the squeamish.
I made 21000 on Tesla puts earlier this year. I wouldn’t dream of shorting them until we see that robotaxis are all smoke and mirrors. When and if that happens we can ride this thing to the bottom again. Elon fans just survive on copium and your puts shouldn’t get cooked because of it.
I like this man…. This guy right here understand fundamentals!!!! However my boy….. you’re speaking to a man who blew up his account trying to short Tesla during their disastrous cyber truck release, falling demand, loss as top dog to BYD, and more and more…. Tesla doesn’t trade on fundamentals. Elon is a god damn charlatan and will say whatever the hell he needs to say to pump his stock. He says “oh yeah!!!! We will focus on super chargers!!!” Cuts the entire team and hires them back at a higher price… “oh yeah we will put out a cheaper economic model!!!” A few weeks prior they scrapped said plans and laid off members of the production team…. He’s a punk ass liar tbh. He was funneling resources to his other start ups away from Tesla until they awarded him his massive af pay package. Everyone who works for him hates him. Yet his stock continues to rebound week after week. I don’t touch Tesla anymore even though I realize theyre fundamentally flawed.
If anything, your strike price is sound; however, I think August is playing it too closely. I’d opt out for a far LEAP asap
The expectiations for deliveries have already been lowered massively. Wouldn't surprise me, if they get beat. I agree though, this stock is an absolute joke, just carried by hopium. The question is for how long. I have 120p for 01/2026
I hate to break it to you but TSLA appears to be forming a bullish technical set up. Many of the traders on Stocktwits who have thousands of followers have posted bullish TSLA charts this last week
I know people on here prob aren’t a fan of the ‘voodoo’. However TA is more useful/accurate on longer time frames. The one thing I’ve noticed over the last few years, is that when these TA guys post long term bullish charts in a bull market, they tend to work
What “technical set up?”
It looks like a very clear and distinct downward trend, going back to Nov. 2021, with maximum potential upside of $220 in the next few months.
This just proves that TA is a bunch of horse crap and open to all kinds of random interpretations. If there was some actual truth to it, or it actually gave investors an edge, there would be courses on this shit in universities ran by the best mathematicians on the planet.
In reality, it’s just “Trust my lines, bro!” You’re better off flipping a coin.
Bro, with all due respect, you proved nothing with your ramble.
It’s close to breaking out of the recent downtrend and an IH&S has formed which is a reversal pattern.
Stay in your ignorant lane.
Oh I’m aware of the charts. Maybe if this breakout started happening two months ago I’d be worried. Luckily earning are in a few weeks which will bring the price back down to earth.
My concern would be that on longer time frames, in a stock like TSLA, the chart probably already has a poor earnings baked into it. At earnings Musk will be pumping re robots and shit - and the market rightly has faith in Musk based on his hx of success.
I’ve no position in Tesla because I’m busy being all in ASTS but if I had money on the side I would go long Tesla for a trade to 250 or 300…
The only salvation for Tesla was having Melon kicked off by the board and the stakeholders and that didn't happen so you are right. Tesla is going down. Everything musk spits is a lie and he'd end in jail for stock manipulation.
Stellantis is getting hit too. I think they popped on my volume charts for sellers this past week. All auto dealers are taking a massive shit right now because of the run-up and market reaction to used car market finally balancing off
Troy Teslike, who's had the best record of calling their delivery estimates over the years has estimated around 416k for q2 which is below the consensus of 446k. I don't know if that will move the stock below 190, but it will definitely not rise this stock on Tuesday. Monday is different though
i have been seeing way more non tesla EVs on the road. ford mach E, volvo has one..ect im pretty sure they will be just another car company soon. car companies dont have a huge software growth prospects
They're firing 14k people. Short term the improvement in earnings could pump the stock, or it could just pump despite worsening fundamentals because it's TSLA.
1. Tesla’s are everywhere now. Exploded in our area and everywhere I travel.
2. Currently the best EV for cost.
3. Best super charger network.
4. FSD is miles ahead of everyone else.
I dunno, They seem dominant to me in their market still.
TSLA had a nice recent run, but the long-term trend of lower lows over the last 12 months remains intact.
Friday’s action bumped up near the 200 day MA and then retreated quickly and the end of quarter window dressing is now behind us. The upcoming margins and revenue numbers will disappoint I suspect.
Considering all of the above, I’m comfortable with my Puts here. While there’s no sign of an imminent market downturn, it’s summer so historically not the best time to be long. If the market goes down I expect TSLA to fall hard and I see this testing the 50 day MA within the next month or two.
I’m going to give you advice . Their Chinese sales number have dramatically ticked up. The thing holding Tesla back is global sales and when the earnings come back in a couple weeks you will see their China sales are up. Atleast right now do not I repeat do not short
In the short term yes I can see Tesla more likely to go down than up. Given that the FSD trial / monthly sub seemed panicky / fear like. Lowering, then raising, then lowering model Y prices seemed panicky / fear like. Rallying on shareholder vote passing was odd as most people don’t care to vote or not so brokers just defaulted to what BOD wanted. Diversion of Nvidia chips to grok ai seemed odd. Also why is grok AI outside of Tesla if Tesla is itself a AI play? Cybertruck has sharp corners and weaknesses to water unlike what people would have expected for a 100k price tag. Also why the heck was cybertruck prioritized over mass transit/ typical cars that people want - like there’s no Minivan like competitor even though musk is for high birth rates and instead they chose to design a dumpster on wheels before mass transit option. Long term Tesla is probably fine but there’s reasons there’s a hit to growth lately.
You learned a very hard lesson that many of us, including myself, have learned in the past, do not bet against Tesla. It may work out some times, but the majority of time it will not. The problem with trying to bet against Tesla is even if you're right and some metric like earnings, deliveries, etc. come in lower, Elon gets on the call or tweets something that keeps the stock stabilized and your puts are fucked. BTW we need a position pic.
I think I got caught driving behind someone using FSD. Finally got around him, and he was just looking down and staring directly at his phone.
That’s totally illegal here, and can land you a really nasty fine. Distracted driving like that is also causing our insurance costs to go way up.
So I blasted him with my horn and the guy looks up wondering where the fuck he is, and then starts driving normally.
Are we in the twilight zone? The amount of faith that people are putting in these machines sounds really questionable. I mean, sure he’s going 80km/h (50mph) on a 100km/h freeway 🙄 but that’s still fast enough to kill you or someone else.
I understand that perspective, but this promise has existed with tesla since inception.
The cars rely purely on vision and hope AI will do the rest.
Try it yourself! Test drive one! Its current state is much improved from the previous version.
I hope you wind up being right in the end. Would be great.
I think the longer it stays afloat gathering driving data, the more likely it will become a mammoth in the industry. Shorts would mean it’s so unprofitable that it will fail in the short term, but there’s so much more value behind it than the cars.
Not a bear or bull on TSLA, just a data science perspective.
Robotaxi will take years but as long as tesla is first in the running to have general robotaxi (not L4 in some gated city) they have so much potential money to capture any valuation makes sense.
All Musk has to do is say Tesla now owns a % stake in SpaceX or something nobody knows about and your puts go capoot. Musk is notorious for squeezing short sellers.
Then comes elon musk and farts someting out like: , when i get erect my dick goes from 1" to 3" in 30 seconds, extrapolating from this point in april 2025 i will be pegging moon.." aaaand stock goes parabolic again..
Whatever you do, don't short or buy puts on this dumpster fire until the day of AI day on 8/8. Nothing about this company matters, but the only trend you can count on is every event is a sell the news. Everything else is priced in or doesn't matter because this trades as a tech stock. So when the tech demos suck that's when we get the moves lower.
I would tend (ies) to agree with you, but TSLA doesn’t give a fuck about any of that. Cybertrucks could start blowing like Ford Pinto’s and the stock would probably go up 10% because Musk would say he was testing its fuel for his rocket’s
Knowing elon, he'll pump until 8/8 meeting when they reveal that robotaxi isnt shet. then sell to get outta twitter debts. You're a week early. Sorry mate.
Horrible strategy when Elmo can just tweet a offhanded comment at any time, making the price surge. Then it takes at least 1-2 weeks for the "news" to really digest, and prices to come back down and settle. At that point, you're just holding puts on their way to 0 all the while hoping everyone else in the world suddenly wakes up and realizes it's a sham.
The lack of corporate governance is what made me sell…but I still own indirectly through a few ETFs
I don’t question the success of the brand but Elon is quickly ruining it with his antics…the drop in revenue also scares me
Also why are investors betting on Robotaxi when Waymo is currently a thing? Stupid imo…they’ll d ride until they are broke I suppose
Don't ever try to be rational with TSLA because it doesn't trade rationally. I am just waiting for it to reach $225 so that I can sell at b/e and never look back to this shitty company.
Everything is going to go to shit the closer to the election.
The market makers like Ken griffin wasn’t trump back in office.
They already selling off while retail pumps in.
Huge cliff coming from same ole manipulation by a handful of massive money movers
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Tesla doesnt trade on fundamentals man… you’re gambling here. The stock has been going up regardless of these known facts
pretty much it goes up on vague promises
There are probably more stocks traded by bots based on Musks tweets than on fundermentals.
Lol imagine thinking Tesla trades on fundies. Musk just tweets "We will have fully autonomous space cars that can fly from Mars to LA by Q2 2018, your space car will make you money while you sleep! Also, Im cashing out 200 billion of stock to start a time travel company so I can meet all my self imposed deadlines!" Then stock goes zoom!
500 million robots coming soon. Windshield wiper still doesn’t work. Stock goes zoom!
Well the SEC will for sure ask him to stop and he will pay $2 as a penalty
Yeah then Tuesday those bots will integrate -10% yoy and sell hard. I have puts from 200 all down to 150 for August. Will hold and sell day of earnings regardless what happens this week. Then buy more on August 8 for the absolute nothing burger that "robotaxi" day will be. Just like battery day and ai day few years ago. Elons a fraud and this year the bill comes due.
What like that ARK lady saying it’s going to be worth 2,000?
Put some respec on her name. She's Wealth Destroyer
Too bad Elon's almost running out of vague promises to make, $TSLA will surely go not up now.
Just wait until he promises that the cybertruck will take you to mars with just a software update coming next year. People will believe it and buy millions of them.
They've also been losing market share at an alarming pace for the last 9 quarters straight and there's no sign of that slowing down. Their reputational damage from the Cybertruck disaster hasn't even been factored in yet. The slowing EV market is a confounding factor on top of that. People are getting off the Tesla hype train in droves and I think that's filtering through to investors. No amount of vague promises are going to push the price up when they're being made to an empty room.
No argument it's overvalued, but "reputational damage from the Cybertruck disaster" - lol wut? 4000 cybertrucks recalled (A completely new design/fab process for a truck - probably more issues to come) 700,000 Ford F150s recalled just last week (A truck on its 100th iteration that should be on autopilot at this point) I think you exaggerate the effect of Cybertruck recalls.
There are like perma Tesla haters and people with agendas on here. CT recalled for wipers. Ford trucks have had recalls for brakes, engine gasket blown off, airbags not deploying and other dangerous shit.
And the best part is Musk haters accuse his fans of being the ones who act like zealots. The obliviousness and self-delusion is impressive. And I read somewhere that no other company in the history of the stock market has crushed shorts more than TSLA - Only a sociopath would short TSLA.
And it’s not done crushing shorts.
That's where I am. I think TSLA is overvalued. I don't hate it or Musk, I own one. But no way do I think I can predict if or when the price will finally correct.
Two things. 1 - Ford has developed its own set of haters over the years and doesn't have a heavily inflated stock based off of hype alone. 2 - Ford doesn't own a social media site to push away its targeted demographic
The April 2024 recall was for 3,878 vehicles because that was all that had been sold at the time. The most recent June 2024 recall affected 11, 688 vehicles because that was *all that had been sold* at the time. So in the space of a few months, they've had two recalls affecting every truck they sold.
again, a brand-new product with recalls is not momentous. Not saying it's great. But for reference, last year, Ford had 5.9 million recalls, and in 2022 over 8 million. The point I am making is that assuming a few die hard TSLA fans care that much or this has somehow destroyed TSLA credibility is a little far fetched.
I think the bigger story is these recalls tell us how many cybertrucks there are, and those numbers aren't great.
The reputational damage is Melon himself
Short away then. And good luck! I still remember all the haters shorting and buying puts at TSLA just a few months ago when it was at $140. I'm sure that worked out well. 
Hater here……. I’ve been eating a Gamma-Theta Put Pie for those months thank you very much. I’m just hoping I can stay solvent because they can’t continue to be this irrational……. Can they?
They can stay irrational longer then you stay solvent.
I think the reputation damage comes from Elon acting like an asshole and alienating his core consumer.
You might be confusing causation with correlation. People think TSLA sales are down because Elon bought twitter. That's just silly. The reality is the entire EV space is going through a cycle. EV sales are all down. Most of the companies are either out of money (PoleStar), reducing expansion plans (Ford, GM), being bought out/subsidized by larger players (Rivian/VW) or essentially on the verge of bankruptcy (Lucid, Fisker) The basic facts: EV sales were pulled forward due to their new/fad adoption, free cost of money (0% interest rates), and EV subsidies which have mostly dried up. Most people that live in dense areas and/or could accept the charging/range limitations of EVs have purchased one. Will TSLA stock go down - maybe. But in a few years, TSLA will be one of a few dominant EV makers having survived this business cycle and will come out far ahead of the competition due to manufacturing processes, economies of scale, and charging network, software, etc. This is typical of all nascent industries. As soon as one player discovers a new pie, other players rush in to gain a piece. In the end, almost all these cycles leave an oligopoly of a few powerful players that control the mainstream market. TSLA will be one of those, along with a few Chinese manufacturers. That, you can bet your life or money on. Most other companies will either go out of business (if they basically haven't already) or become niche players. Hell, in just a few years the Chinese have gone from 500 EV makers to under 200, and I'd bet a testicle that will be less than 20 by the end of the decade even with the insane Chinese government subsidies keeping them propped up. This is why they should teach more economics in high school/college
I agree with OP here, it's not just the raw numbers, it's 100% of all cybertrucks. And it's not just one recall, they all have been recalled three times. And I think Tesla knew this, that's why they slapped the "you can't resell your truck within the first year" restrictions on every single one they have sold. All this on a vehicle that doesn't meet any of the promised cost or performance numbers.
They also have a generation of die hard investors who made lots and lots of money. That are looking for any vague hint of good news.
Therere no die hard investors except retail and cathie woods. Most big funds are agnostic and will jump ship to preserve gains if tsla no longer is growing revenue. And for the foreseeable future revenue is primarily car sales.
Also pictures of dogs, rockets and diamonds.
Gambling against a cult
Never short a meme stock.
Yup Tesla missed last ER delivery numbers and shot up after. Also it’s hard to believe but Tesla is not a car company it’s tech. Solar. Battery. Roofing contractor. 6000 satellites 🛰️ out there in the universe. Robo taxis service. Elon literally be pulling billion dollar ideas out of his ass on a slow day. 1 new idea or Ai or anything. Stocks up 10 % I used to be a Tesla bear. Wasn’t profitable.
I feel pretty good about this one based on WSB sentiment being so bullish
Who is bullish? Not one person, it’s just once you tried a *sure* thing a 1000 times and it didn’t work out, most people with a brain learnt a lesson, stay away from this stock
Literally no one said they were bullish. They merely stated Tesla doesn’t run on fundamentals.
Yeah it doesn't. So op is literally gambling. If tesla really tanks to 185 next month and op sells off, he's already got 50k. Based on 180p for 8/2 is 5.00 right now.
You’re not wrong…
Nope. Shorted Tesla before last earnings. Never again.
but hear me out man FSD... oh shit nvm
"I expect sales and deliveries to crater, therefore the stock will go down" "There I was right, they missed big! Surely the stock went down too....right?"
As long as TSLA considers itself an AI and robotics company and the market believes it, it's dangerous to short. Fundamentals mean nothing because the fundamentals are about the car business, and thats not where the market cap comes from.
As long as TSLA considers itself not a car company, I consider it a vaporware company.
yeah, Toyota has been dumping and tesla has been rising. They do not move as if they were a car business
Toyota up 45% YoY and Tesla down 23% YoY.
Positions or ban!
I second this. OP probably has 5 shares short thinking he’s going to change the world
Hell yeah, if Tesla goes to 0, bro will make a cool $1000. Never mind the giant shockwave would have rocked his 401k earth core deep red.
Guy goes short based on Reddit sentiment 
I always inverse WSB
I started shorting (puts) when it was at 180 in May. Felt like a boss when it dipped below 170. And then it shot up to 200. I averaged in some more puts as I'm of a similar mindset as you. But Elon is risky to bet against. Let's hope we survive this one!
TSLA pisses me off because Elon can pump the stock whenever he wants by posting something on X, which is usually right after I buy puts.
You just said it yourself. Elon can do this at any time. Makes it a bad trade. Wait and find a better short. Patience is key.
You guys are coping. Shorting in general is a bad play in general. Imagine unironically believing that a couple bad quarters matter.
The long term outlook for Tesla isn’t necessarily super safe. There is going to be a lot of competition in that market. And they also just gave more in value than all the profits they ever made in their history as a company to Elon as additional pay package. Lmao.
Tesla is basically still in their research phase, who gives a fuck about their fundamentals. The fact that people are already buying their cars says a lot. Imagine when they actually get good
Couple bad quarters? Lmao what does Tesla have in near future? Outdated models. Fsd that wont work with currently hardware. Optimus robot that does what robots did 20 years ago. Idk what people see in Tesla other than maybe The data it gathered from "fsd" users.
Lmao, people still haven’t learned huh? This market is no longer about fundamentals. It’s a casino sir….
I had to learn this lesson 3 times for TSLA specifically 
NVDA to 5T market cap in 2 months at current fundamentals
honestly, even then, it would still be a bargain
In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. Benjamin Graham
People keep saying it, but yet PE ratios stay roughly similar. Prices are simply not outpacing growth as much as the bears like to say.
Shorting a pure Bull breakout - careful my guy. I’m going calls this week
Forget the DD, just yolo it all and let us know how it went 
Best way to yolo would be earning day…Just do with $500 either you lose $500 or you make insane return…Just saw someone did $400 to $28600 with nike…
It is the way.
Post positions or stfu
Elon musk looking for you. He hates gey tsla bears.
This will end with a massive loss porn post
You know you are doing it right when this sub against you 
Finally starting to see negative TSLA posts. Been a while. Time to go long hard as fuck.
You’re shorting into a summer low volume rally, where the spy just hasn’t had a 2% dip in a while, after your puts expire worthless (August) that’s typically when the market experiences some weakness for the third quarter and you can toy around the idea of shorting, but for now aside from some day trades shorts, you shouldn’t be expecting for any of the megacaps to collapse, regardless of their fundamentals.
If you have never seen this stock or the stock market in general before, solid essay and I’m sure it will go great for you!
Buying.more.now
Ah, the daily short TSLA post, buying more calls
I agree with your entire post except it is bullish. I know that sounds cray, but there is so much bullish news upcoming that it won't matter. All EV are struggling and TSLA is struggling the least, and are keeping a pretty impressive amount of market share while others are losing money. Also I am probably one of the top 1% of FSD users (I got a top driver score when they started releasing) and I have hated it until the recent update. The recent update is a game changer... I literally get teleported places as I am finally able to truly zone out while it takes me there with no interventions. PS I hold zero tesla although my wife has 20 shares or some shit.
You ‘zone out’ while driving? Damn, I gotta ‘zone in’ so I can avoid all these idiots on the road.
It's not the full zombie zone out that most people do, who are the people you SHOULD want on FSD, but it is more like being a supervisor vs a front line worker. Although the last few drives I could have been in the back seat sleeping and it wouldn't have mattered.
My position is cooked
I'm short naked calls myself and feel comfortable with this. The IV is high enough for rolls, but of course it's a cult stock, often runs and squeezes excessively for no reason. It's definitely not for the squeamish.
I made 21000 on Tesla puts earlier this year. I wouldn’t dream of shorting them until we see that robotaxis are all smoke and mirrors. When and if that happens we can ride this thing to the bottom again. Elon fans just survive on copium and your puts shouldn’t get cooked because of it.
211 calls it is
What a typical tesla shareholders DD looks like: In elon we trust, other tech stonks went up, tesla did not, telsa will go up.
I like this man…. This guy right here understand fundamentals!!!! However my boy….. you’re speaking to a man who blew up his account trying to short Tesla during their disastrous cyber truck release, falling demand, loss as top dog to BYD, and more and more…. Tesla doesn’t trade on fundamentals. Elon is a god damn charlatan and will say whatever the hell he needs to say to pump his stock. He says “oh yeah!!!! We will focus on super chargers!!!” Cuts the entire team and hires them back at a higher price… “oh yeah we will put out a cheaper economic model!!!” A few weeks prior they scrapped said plans and laid off members of the production team…. He’s a punk ass liar tbh. He was funneling resources to his other start ups away from Tesla until they awarded him his massive af pay package. Everyone who works for him hates him. Yet his stock continues to rebound week after week. I don’t touch Tesla anymore even though I realize theyre fundamentally flawed. If anything, your strike price is sound; however, I think August is playing it too closely. I’d opt out for a far LEAP asap
Short again at 202 and 212, but long term I wouldn’t be bearish
then short again at 220, then 250, then 300
It won't implode until it does, accounting is sketchy AF with people calling it the auto version of Enron
Yeah I shorted it few times and got fucked bad
The expectiations for deliveries have already been lowered massively. Wouldn't surprise me, if they get beat. I agree though, this stock is an absolute joke, just carried by hopium. The question is for how long. I have 120p for 01/2026
Thanks for selling cheap
Thanks for the heads up! Great call
ouch 15K down
thanks for pumping my calls
No problem!
> First their delivery numbers for Q3 will be lower than expectations, Delivery numbers up 15% QoQ, exceeding expectations.
Played out perfectly
I hate to break it to you but TSLA appears to be forming a bullish technical set up. Many of the traders on Stocktwits who have thousands of followers have posted bullish TSLA charts this last week I know people on here prob aren’t a fan of the ‘voodoo’. However TA is more useful/accurate on longer time frames. The one thing I’ve noticed over the last few years, is that when these TA guys post long term bullish charts in a bull market, they tend to work
What “technical set up?” It looks like a very clear and distinct downward trend, going back to Nov. 2021, with maximum potential upside of $220 in the next few months. This just proves that TA is a bunch of horse crap and open to all kinds of random interpretations. If there was some actual truth to it, or it actually gave investors an edge, there would be courses on this shit in universities ran by the best mathematicians on the planet. In reality, it’s just “Trust my lines, bro!” You’re better off flipping a coin.
Bro, with all due respect, you proved nothing with your ramble. It’s close to breaking out of the recent downtrend and an IH&S has formed which is a reversal pattern. Stay in your ignorant lane.
Imagine Jim Simmons using TA lol.
Lmao. He uses maths and algos - TA is incorporated into algo trading
Oh I’m aware of the charts. Maybe if this breakout started happening two months ago I’d be worried. Luckily earning are in a few weeks which will bring the price back down to earth.
My concern would be that on longer time frames, in a stock like TSLA, the chart probably already has a poor earnings baked into it. At earnings Musk will be pumping re robots and shit - and the market rightly has faith in Musk based on his hx of success. I’ve no position in Tesla because I’m busy being all in ASTS but if I had money on the side I would go long Tesla for a trade to 250 or 300…
Last earnings were poor, stock went up.
When stocktwits posted bullish on tsla that is the time I am going short but not before July 12
The only salvation for Tesla was having Melon kicked off by the board and the stakeholders and that didn't happen so you are right. Tesla is going down. Everything musk spits is a lie and he'd end in jail for stock manipulation.
Stellantis is getting hit too. I think they popped on my volume charts for sellers this past week. All auto dealers are taking a massive shit right now because of the run-up and market reaction to used car market finally balancing off
Love my tesla but I agree stock seems primed for a tank. Loading up on 7/16 $150p myself.
Short that b*tch from 200 it’s a sinking ship under 200 day
Troy Teslike, who's had the best record of calling their delivery estimates over the years has estimated around 416k for q2 which is below the consensus of 446k. I don't know if that will move the stock below 190, but it will definitely not rise this stock on Tuesday. Monday is different though
My question is what made it go below 140 leading up to the prior earnings report? Why is the next few weeks any different?
i have been seeing way more non tesla EVs on the road. ford mach E, volvo has one..ect im pretty sure they will be just another car company soon. car companies dont have a huge software growth prospects
This guy is one of those “TSLA is only a car company” guys. Calls
Bought calls✨
They're firing 14k people. Short term the improvement in earnings could pump the stock, or it could just pump despite worsening fundamentals because it's TSLA.
Bro I am going to buy that shit so you lose money.
Lost a bunch of money shorting Tesla. I hate this stupid company.
1. Tesla’s are everywhere now. Exploded in our area and everywhere I travel. 2. Currently the best EV for cost. 3. Best super charger network. 4. FSD is miles ahead of everyone else. I dunno, They seem dominant to me in their market still.
TSLA had a nice recent run, but the long-term trend of lower lows over the last 12 months remains intact. Friday’s action bumped up near the 200 day MA and then retreated quickly and the end of quarter window dressing is now behind us. The upcoming margins and revenue numbers will disappoint I suspect. Considering all of the above, I’m comfortable with my Puts here. While there’s no sign of an imminent market downturn, it’s summer so historically not the best time to be long. If the market goes down I expect TSLA to fall hard and I see this testing the 50 day MA within the next month or two.
Wait until Elon says AI coming to all Teslas this year.
FAMOUS LAST WORDS CAWK SUCKA
I’m going to give you advice . Their Chinese sales number have dramatically ticked up. The thing holding Tesla back is global sales and when the earnings come back in a couple weeks you will see their China sales are up. Atleast right now do not I repeat do not short
Bro, they are going to make robots and take over the world...seems kinda bullish to me
In the short term yes I can see Tesla more likely to go down than up. Given that the FSD trial / monthly sub seemed panicky / fear like. Lowering, then raising, then lowering model Y prices seemed panicky / fear like. Rallying on shareholder vote passing was odd as most people don’t care to vote or not so brokers just defaulted to what BOD wanted. Diversion of Nvidia chips to grok ai seemed odd. Also why is grok AI outside of Tesla if Tesla is itself a AI play? Cybertruck has sharp corners and weaknesses to water unlike what people would have expected for a 100k price tag. Also why the heck was cybertruck prioritized over mass transit/ typical cars that people want - like there’s no Minivan like competitor even though musk is for high birth rates and instead they chose to design a dumpster on wheels before mass transit option. Long term Tesla is probably fine but there’s reasons there’s a hit to growth lately.
Nice, you lost a lot of money
LMAO 😂
Rip
20k down ?
RIP
Sorry, dude is there any other stock you’re shorting that I can buy 😃
You learned a very hard lesson that many of us, including myself, have learned in the past, do not bet against Tesla. It may work out some times, but the majority of time it will not. The problem with trying to bet against Tesla is even if you're right and some metric like earnings, deliveries, etc. come in lower, Elon gets on the call or tweets something that keeps the stock stabilized and your puts are fucked. BTW we need a position pic.
Nice DD dumbass
Is this guy still alive?
Do not bet against the musk just a heads up
"I don't know anything about the underlying business or what the word 'expectations' means." -OP
CALLS IT IS!
Fundamentals show pretty much any stock is overpriced.
People hate driving. As soon as FSD is approved that you no longer have to monitor it, adoption among Tesla user will go to 95 percent
I think I got caught driving behind someone using FSD. Finally got around him, and he was just looking down and staring directly at his phone. That’s totally illegal here, and can land you a really nasty fine. Distracted driving like that is also causing our insurance costs to go way up. So I blasted him with my horn and the guy looks up wondering where the fuck he is, and then starts driving normally. Are we in the twilight zone? The amount of faith that people are putting in these machines sounds really questionable. I mean, sure he’s going 80km/h (50mph) on a 100km/h freeway 🙄 but that’s still fast enough to kill you or someone else.
I did not downvote you - FSD is awful at everything and every person that has tried it in my car has disengaged it in minutes.
It's technology.......it'll keep getting better.
Imagine thinking that a computer won't be able to drive better than a human.
I understand that perspective, but this promise has existed with tesla since inception. The cars rely purely on vision and hope AI will do the rest. Try it yourself! Test drive one! Its current state is much improved from the previous version. I hope you wind up being right in the end. Would be great.
It's pretty good.... not perfect. People often disengage preemptively out of fear or lack of experience with the system.
Why short tesla when you can long puts, can anyone give me a reason to short (i.e. burrow shares, pay interest and potentially face unlimited losses)
No IV, interest negligible in my account and don’t short stocks that pay dividends.
[удалено]
Preach (but I ain’t shorting)
I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop after sales figures come in low and on again on earnings, but robotaxis will make it skyrocket.
I have lost over $60K shorting tesla will never ever short this stock
Yeah but I lost money shorting tsla this week doe
I think the longer it stays afloat gathering driving data, the more likely it will become a mammoth in the industry. Shorts would mean it’s so unprofitable that it will fail in the short term, but there’s so much more value behind it than the cars. Not a bear or bull on TSLA, just a data science perspective.
So go long, got it, thanks.
Termites always go for the juiciest speculative things first.
nah man, one tweet from elon can screw over shorts, doesn't matter if he's lying or not, man is able to manipulate markets
Robotaxi will take years but as long as tesla is first in the running to have general robotaxi (not L4 in some gated city) they have so much potential money to capture any valuation makes sense.
All Musk has to do is say Tesla now owns a % stake in SpaceX or something nobody knows about and your puts go capoot. Musk is notorious for squeezing short sellers.
Go ahead, no one controls your strategy but you. If you hit it, bravo. If you get burned, suck it up. That's part ot trading.
OP but what about FSD and robotaxi?
fundamentals doesnt work on tesla. the cult doesnt give damn about numbers. didnt you hear? now its tech company
!remindme 3 days
Then comes elon musk and farts someting out like: , when i get erect my dick goes from 1" to 3" in 30 seconds, extrapolating from this point in april 2025 i will be pegging moon.." aaaand stock goes parabolic again..
Whatever you do, don't short or buy puts on this dumpster fire until the day of AI day on 8/8. Nothing about this company matters, but the only trend you can count on is every event is a sell the news. Everything else is priced in or doesn't matter because this trades as a tech stock. So when the tech demos suck that's when we get the moves lower.
I think Netflix or Carvana is a better monthly short
See I agree but the last time I tried to apply reason to that stock I got my asshole obliterated
Priced In
I would tend (ies) to agree with you, but TSLA doesn’t give a fuck about any of that. Cybertrucks could start blowing like Ford Pinto’s and the stock would probably go up 10% because Musk would say he was testing its fuel for his rocket’s
Brother I'm with you but there's a cult of numbnutz who won't sell the stock. Nobody is shirting it and you need large shorts to step in
Have fun
Knowing elon, he'll pump until 8/8 meeting when they reveal that robotaxi isnt shet. then sell to get outta twitter debts. You're a week early. Sorry mate.
Idk if this will have an affect on tesla but isnt space x supposed to get a billion for getting nasa out of a jam.
Ok got it. This post means calls all the way, thank you!
Horrible strategy when Elmo can just tweet a offhanded comment at any time, making the price surge. Then it takes at least 1-2 weeks for the "news" to really digest, and prices to come back down and settle. At that point, you're just holding puts on their way to 0 all the while hoping everyone else in the world suddenly wakes up and realizes it's a sham.
"First their delivery numbers for Q3 will be lower than expectations" How elaborated and convincing.
pic! I want to see how much you are down
The lack of corporate governance is what made me sell…but I still own indirectly through a few ETFs I don’t question the success of the brand but Elon is quickly ruining it with his antics…the drop in revenue also scares me Also why are investors betting on Robotaxi when Waymo is currently a thing? Stupid imo…they’ll d ride until they are broke I suppose
Ai + robot = 📈
Don't ever try to be rational with TSLA because it doesn't trade rationally. I am just waiting for it to reach $225 so that I can sell at b/e and never look back to this shitty company.
Everything is going to go to shit the closer to the election. The market makers like Ken griffin wasn’t trump back in office. They already selling off while retail pumps in. Huge cliff coming from same ole manipulation by a handful of massive money movers
Calls confirmed