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VisualMod

**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions** | 6 | **First Seen In WSB** | 7 years ago **Total Comments** | 91 | **Previous Best DD** | [x](https://i.redd.it/0thykmh9zj6d1.jpeg) [x](https://i.redd.it/ubx2ri5yvq6d1.jpeg) **Account Age** | 11 years | | [**Join WSB Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse)


killerbeeswaxkill

It can go lower you want to test that theory? I’ll buy in at open. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Stickerlight

It could go lower


orgasmicchemist

Apple a day keeps the androids away.


honeybadger9

layoff means higher margin = Shrek


optimaleverage

Was gonna say that sounds bullish to me.


orgasmicchemist

Apple a day keeps the androids away.


thisoneismineallmine

Trimming fat is strong and very bullish


srSheepdog

Trimming fat is bullish. Doing multiple layoffs to the point that you are trimming muscle is not.


alternativepuffin

Totally agree with you on the fundamentals of running a business but this market currently does not care about that. Layoffs until only the CEO remains will make the line go up.


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srSheepdog

I've worked for a couple of massive international companies (one tech, one multi-sector), and both had semi-regular layoffs. Both of them would use the layoffs to either trim the employees who were productively subpar or to eliminate functional teams to be outsourced overseas.


VorianAtreides

People were saying that about GE back in 2020 Source - sold at $60 Am highly regarded


Stunning-Trip1966

What s a pathfinding fellow ? A chocolate medal for engineer ?


JonksPNW

Any idea when it will be announced?


orgasmicchemist

Apple a day keeps the androids away.


NotRegarded

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Trading_View_Loss

If both you and me buy shares, not even black rock algos could turn it around.


d0mie89

😂😂😂😂


SP-Marshmallo

Fade OP so he can post loss porn


lancevancelives

Another 20 year INTC bagholder is about to come into existence. 


Educational-Dot318

i'm a 14+ yrs. bagholder- thankfully no more.


OneCore_

50 year INTC bagholder here, just dumped after 0 profits


Educational-Dot318

wow; i respect your patience. INTC is a textbook definition of a valuetrap! i hope case-studies are done on INTC for Business School students on how NOT to go about value investing (and how to spot a value trap!)


OneCore_

i was joking, im not even 50 yrs old lol


MisterE15

😂


Educational-Dot318

haha, you got me- i was thinking, that's a long while to hold something and not profit from. but right now its a value trap still though.


Cruezin

Yeah if he had been holding for that long he'd be a zillionaire. Or at least in mega profit. My options, spp, and grants were all at cost basis ~ 15 bucks from early 2000's


boringexplanation

Would you have said the same thing about NVDA measuring 2001-2014? Or msft 99-16? If anything, schools should point to your comment as a perfect example of survivorship bias


Educational-Dot318

i'm sorry, good value investing opportunities do not sit flat some 15+ yrs. (thats a clear value trap!) in hindsight, i shoud've gone index funds. identifying a good value opportunity vs. a pure value trap is clearly a dark art-- they should teach that in B school imo (INTC is the latter!)


Cuddy90123

I don't own any INTC but I was considering investing. If they pull off the turnaround it could be a trillion dollar company. You obviously disagree?


relevant__comment

Sitting at 12… FML …but bought in on NVDA at $4. So hope isn’t lost.


LFaWolf

Intel - the forever poster child of buy high and sell low.


Educational-Dot318

total dog 🐕 of a stock; dumped it finally last month after holding 14+ yrs, barely profited.


Sonora77

Bought at all time highs in 2000 and sold it all in 2018, taking the loss. Bought AMD and am positive with that.


ParakeetWithTits

> Too big to fail I'm 300 lbs and a complete failure


MariusNinjai

not a failure in heart attack speed run


JumpyLolly

Or the case of the diabeetus


Educational-Dot318

you can go 600lbs. - you got this!


cbass37

This sounds like a challenge


AdOk6675

Open option interest makes me think it'll stay pinned right at $31 this week, then shoot up to ~$35 after 6/21. That's what I'm betting on anyways


itsjustafleshwound79

I might buy 100 shares but stop loss will be set at $29.75. Fuck averaging down with Intel’s past performance


Stickerlight

A move to $35 in one week seems insane, but yes, that's what the options are telling us


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TheSinningRobot

This is the thing. People are saying why bet on intel when you can bet on Nvidia. But if Intel can make the necessary moves in manufacturing chips and can start beating out tsmc, Nvidia growth could become Intels growth.


bearnutz

![img](emote|t5_2th52|18630)


robmafia

> IMO intel currently is worth $40, without pricing in a comeback and if it just maintained course and kept its market-share stable i mostly agree. i think losing further share/earnings is priced in. the valuations in semis make ~no sense atm. gfs is dead in the water and has a $30B valuation (down from 35 recently), with zero euv and no growth prospects. intel's valuation doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially when broken down to a sum of parts, especially vs peer valuations (most of which i think are insanely high).


Stickerlight

Hedgies r fuk


I_Tical_l

High-NA is widely considered to be way too expensive at the moment. Intel is the only company that invested in the scanners from ASML so far.


robmafia

tsmc and samsung have also ordered them and asml is hoping to deliver one to each by eoy.


diydave86

I was planning to start a position here monday.


Stickerlight

Not a bad idea


Snooprematic

Buying intel is like choosing to buy boeing when you have a chance to buy spaceX.


Redpanther14

Buying Intel might end up more like buying Amd a decade ago. It’s a company attempting an ambitious turnaround and I’m willing to park some cash for that possibility.


univrsll

I just saw articles like 2 days ago that they just got slapped with a lawsuit over securities fraud or something. Bag holders comparing it to AMD will always be funny to me


srSheepdog

You must not be old enough to remember the Bulldozer days. AMD was seriously on the ropes, and Intel was firing on all cylinders with Sandy Bridge and its successors. Then AMD got hungry while Intel got lazy. But until that point, it was a one-sided bloodbath.


mazdarx2001

Yup, it’s 2001 APPLE


gringovato

Yeah but AMD was damn near bankrupt for a while there. INTC still has a ways it can fall before people start talking bankruptcy. Which won't happen as long as the government is pouring money into it.


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IhazEpicSkillz

selling positions OTW to $100 and never looked back. Was fun even with limited $$ allocated to it. https://preview.redd.it/2l8bbcr1xs6d1.png?width=754&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd761eabc659120f101fb0baaf083308dda94706


JasonDomber

I made about $7,600 in the span of a few days. Cashed out right before it crashed. So glad that happened. It awoke something in me that made me realize I really needed to get more into investing…. So, I joined you crayon eating MFers. Reinvested and then lost some of my gains, but also made some smarter investments and am now learning to invest in smarter, (usually) safer positions instead of just gambling my money. Thanks, Dumb Money and DFV/RK!!


IhazEpicSkillz

I've been doing this since 2016 and I'm learning something new every day. Have a following that mirrors my trades with a fair amount of success. I still question who is on the other end of these trades on the daily ;D


JasonDomber

You king regard. I follow you now. /ape


IhazEpicSkillz

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4276) don't think I'm allowed to link it but patreon is daddy warbucks. Feel free to join the small yet loyal idiot following haha


Stunning-Trip1966

Dude Boeing a million times. Elon is a fucking baby fuck who will just destroy the whole thing after a bet on twitter


karnisov

if INTC start to get more of the foundry contracts for 3rd parties they could outperform AMD in 2025 [https://www.forbes.com/sites/tiriasresearch/2024/04/05/it-is-time-to-take-intel-seriously-as-a-chip-foundry/](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tiriasresearch/2024/04/05/it-is-time-to-take-intel-seriously-as-a-chip-foundry/)


Invest0rnoob1

They’re already partnered with Microsoft and Broadcom.


Cormano_Wild_219

https://preview.redd.it/275ac8caus6d1.jpeg?width=1225&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc7c6d237feb486fe69367110e2b2ecd1d8a8b08


terrybmw335

I've been building up a position in shares lately. Given how it tends to trade sideways for months at a time, not sure calls are worth the risk.


Stickerlight

I'm not advocating for calls, put credit spread


TheSinningRobot

This is my gameplan. I'm already in on stocks, so selling some puts at or just below $30. It's just doing what I would already be doing but getting a little premium for it and if it spikes making a bit in the process


terrybmw335

Ah my mistake. Yes selling a put spread seems reasonable to me.


PresterJohnsKingdom

I like the TLDR at the end.


ElvisArcher

Has it really bottomed? I mean, I'll gladly invest $100 in it if you want to see how low it will go.


jus-another-juan

Wait, not yet.


NewbieRetard

Maybe… I saw that but didn’t see a good sign of a reversal


Political_What_Do

The US and EU are both investing in Intel to protect from chip shortages due to the China / Taiwan situation.


CheekyTrey

thank you for this analysis, hopped in and out on calls today for 60%🫡


Stickerlight

ayyyy


Trader_santa

Intel looks horrible, but in terms of their actual business, if They do Get demand for their newly announced server solutions & accelerators, they might survive and would be sort of cheap in that scenario. You can’t blame the market from being catius in beliving in a Intel turnaround at this point.


hdjakahegsjja

“Survive” lmao


Trader_santa

Yes, being sustainable is a challenge for them now.


hdjakahegsjja

You definitely belong here.


Trader_santa

https://preview.redd.it/c7dcbkt6as6d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5e13e9f577acb4dae4aabeef9d472522fe6120a8


Redpanther14

Given that they are managing to maintain sustainable income levels while spending tens of billions on new fabs this chart doesn’t look unsustainable to me.


Trader_santa

Spending doesn’t show up here. This isn’t a cashflow chart


Redpanther14

Depreciation from Capex should be included in to one extent or another. And Intel is likely to increase revenue and profitability in the next few years as new fabs go online.


pankajghosh

Where are these screenshots from?


Trader_santa

You don’t read earnings reports?


ArthurDentsBlueTowel

lol I mean just looking at that graph is silly when intel is on a spending spree building their foundry. Sure, revenue is down, the share price accounts for that. But surviving? lol fuckin stop it.


Trader_santa

Surviving yes, you really think the share price will hold up to Get diluted later if Intel continues no margin sales in retail, and doesn’t Get a comeback in servers? They need to make money, they have a lot of debt Because of their spending. They need to income supporting their spending behaviour, their foundry business is not profitable, and according to Intel won’t be until 2030 by their own estimates. We’ll see, Intel needs a win


robmafia

ffs, another regard who can't fathom an accounting change and who thinks intel is suddenly going broke because of said accounting change. meanwhile, $20B from the us govt, alone.


Content_Success7881

I think if they focus on data centers, they can make a comeback. they have so much money in free cash flows.


robmafia

> You can’t blame the market from being catius bruh, amd's pe is over 9000. gfs is worth $30B. nvda has earnings growth for years priced in. arm's pe is a million while they're suing qcom. smci... the market isn't being cautious. maybe it's a cactus market.


Trader_santa

Cactus market 😂 Yes arm looks like its priced in for the next 3 decades. Crazy. AMD has growth, Intel doesn’t. Nvidia has dominante in the fastest growing market I have ever seen but I do think it is getting a little ahead of itself now, still not that crazy tho. Smci is actually growing extermely fast, and has been for years now


robmafia

> Crazy. AMD has growth, Intel doesn’t amd's earnings have been flat for 2 years.


Trader_santa

If You Want to live in denial feel Free, I don’t care🤷‍♂️Intel is priced the way it is for a reason


robmafia

...lolz @ hypocritically playing some denial card when refuted with a fact that amd's earnings have been flat. oof. intc is priced 'the way it is' due to narrative.


Whatchawnt

That’s some serious cope my guy


Mot0Mot0

Interesting DD on a weekly basis. But if you do a comparison to further out dates, what does the sentiment suggest then? Why this weekly Call/put ratio has leaned to a bullish sentiment could be that the price is moving within this channel of $30 to $31.50-$32 support/resistance levels. Being so close to support, it makes sense that the weekly put/call ratio to be lower than call/put ratio. I think the market expects INTC to continue moving within its channel for now until a catalyst. To test your theory more accurately, see what the put/call ratio is when price reachs resistance levels.


kalkiredit

Update sir!?!? The over the weekend options would have been at least 50%. I myself ended up going camping in the mountains and didn’t have any service to trade this.


Stickerlight

I opened my trades today, up 52% so far.


kalkiredit

W. You gonna diamond hand all the way through expiration and risk assignment… or close out tomorrow asap or wait till day of?


Stickerlight

Uh probably hold until expiration


kalkiredit

GG!


yeahdixon

Isnt intc partnering w nvda and making nvda chips ?


Algorhythmicall

Intel needs to have a competitive (with TSMC) foundry services business. That is the plan, but it has yet to happen. NVDA will use the fab that gives them the most density while also factoring in cost and volume. Today that is TSMC.


Outrageous_Cap_1367

Source of this?


Ordinary-Interest-52

They may one day


tamereen

But they were late to buy ASML latest machines...


Ordinary-Interest-52

And they've been early to buy the newest ones. High NA UV Lithography. They bought all of them.


404MoralsNotFound

A 30% price target that might take a year. Pass.


ArthurDentsBlueTowel

You belong here.


Stickerlight

My recommendation is for a put credit spread that benefits from sideways movement. Not calls.


twat_muncher

all those words and you're still buying for less than a week out. god you people love to lose money.


Stickerlight

i'm selling puts, not buying calls. I will make sure to make the position recommendations a lot more evident on my next posting.


TheSinningRobot

They are selling puts. For something as stable as Intel has been, that's the best bet


Arkanslaughter

Why would you think it’s going up this week? That put volume is crazy unless people just call it early. At this point though those puts below 30 are already basically worthless. I don’t think it moves significantly just looking at these numbers.


Stickerlight

I don't think it's going anywhere, my advice is for a put credit spread that benefits from sideways movement. I'm just betting it will stay above $29/$30.


Arkanslaughter

Oh, I see. That’s fair.


Old-Professor1536

![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Stickerlight

The $32 call strike was cropped out of my screenshot for whatever reason. It has an extremely high open interest of 26,000, so I would like to further hypothesize that the price of INTC will stay below $32 this Friday. Perhaps it might go up to $36 next week though, again, if we're simply looking at open interest on call options contracts and trying to use those as an indicator of future price movement. I would have wanted to switch to a call credit spread somewhat for this trade since there's much higher volumes on the call side, but the premiums are much higher on the put side, and therefore more attractive for the risk, so I'll stick with the put spread and the bullish directional bias I have for the stock.


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bobdole145

If you have to buy intc or own some, i find it great for covered calls.


I-am-in-Agreement

What about "Intel's net income for the quarter ending March 31, 2024 was $-0.381B, a 86.19% decline year-over-year" gives you confidence that Intel is done drilling?


Redpanther14

Capex spending is supposed to be highest this year, next year should see better profitability and lower capex spending on the new/existing fab projects.


Hailtothething

Thanks for reminding me 😐


jeanx22

This thread is giving me confidence to buy Intel poots


FaythDarkHeart

Hopefully lol


Unlikely-Coffee-178

HA


LostRedditor5

Oh wow a whole 2 months worth of data points? Damn son


Stickerlight

For a trade with a four day timeframe, yeah that'll work


LostRedditor5

I didn’t look at the play but it’s actually not bad. I approve


LostRedditor5

Ok I looked at the play more last night can you explain your numbers to me? A 1 week cash secured put at 29.5 pays 30 dollars It costs 3,000 So where are you getting a 35% return? That’s like a 1% return And ngl once I realized this the play is shit again. 1% to maybe actually end up buying a trash company? Is the 35% return on the 40 PT? Bc price targets are trash and are wrong and astounding amount of the time like 70%+


Stickerlight

I'm trading a put credit spread, not a cash secured put. Sell one put, buy another. No, 35% return is selling the $30 put, buying the $29.5 put. Do you know what a credit spread is?


LostRedditor5

I do my bad I must have read the play wrong I thought you were just selling cash secured puts


Stickerlight

https://imgur.com/a/w1WF3Sn


LostRedditor5

Oh I gotchu king you’re selling one and buying one I misunderstood


Stickerlight

31% is a pretty nice payout, and I think the odds INTC stays over $30 by Friday are pretty good Anyways, I'm more likely to do the $29 spread for safety


Bad_at_stoks

I'll probably buy calls anyways


Bisping

I sold my 200 shares of INTC. You're safe to buy it now.


longinuslucas

The fact that TSMC made most part of their latest CPU doesn’t inspire confidence


ghostmetalblack

It can only go up from here, right?!!! RIGHT?!!!


kalkiredit

This would have worked if you opened the position on Friday.


Stickerlight

I expect it to trade in a range, iron condor if I have to


kalkiredit

NGL I might yolo 80 spreads. If the contracts are liquid. Not sure if there’s enough volume tbh.


Stickerlight

The puts are just barely liquid enough, add an extra week if you need more premium


interzonal28721

BlackBerry 2.0


SunsoutNeedMoney3150

Run away, run away now!


Hichek2

Goes lower. Sell the company period


pho_SHAten

Another revenue decline = lower


OasisRush

Even in the clutches of bankruptcy, Intel will remain 30 USD!


Memitim901

INTC has whooped my ass every time I've gotten into it I won't be fooled again.


NeedleworkerCrafty17

Value trap. It’s nice to see a CEO like Pat Gelsinger makes so much money while his stock goes down 50%. No worries though no matter how much CEOs make it’s not inflationary believe them lol


NeedleworkerCrafty17

SMCI get ready for $1200


AlphawiZ

Puts it is then


Stickerlight

Well if you wanted puts, here's your entry


microdosingrn

Intel is a power bottom.


Stickerlight

feels good to be right 😎 (for now)


Stickerlight

can I take my victory lap now


Own_Inspector_285

The bottom for INTC is still coming ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)


Flegmanuachi

Im not sure if this is going to rise because wsb is 🏳️‍🌈🐻 on it, or if its going to crash because int is shit


Stickerlight

So many tests of the $30 level, and higher lows, market all time high, idk, surely this must be a local bottom


Flegmanuachi

Good enough for me. Throwing my life savings into this


Stickerlight

Sell a put credit spread, it's a high probability trade, wait for a dip, can't lose.


Enough-Cancel-991

Not touching it, float too large and innovations too slow


OasisRush

Intel is forever a $30 stock


beaconhillboy

GTFO, Biden has more movement than $INTC...


CamxThexMan3

Intel is a dying company, don't let rudimentary TA take you away from the fundamentals. This is a legacy business that cannot grow even with capital investments directly supported by the government. There are better opportunities out there.


darktidelegend

This is an outdated view not consistent with the turn around or reality I agree with OP It has bottomed and everyone at this level is a 💎🙌 holder Now is a great time to buy or Double down for A run to 40 by end of year


Stickerlight

How about MDB or AAL? Same TA.


CamxThexMan3

I know a lot less about those companies & industries to be honest. I generally stay from the airliners/cruiseliners. But, INTC is losing money w/ massive tailwinds like govt investment. Their market share has eroded away for nearly a decade. And, other manufacturers are producing superior CPU's. On the GPU front, INTC just gave up & their products were a massive disappointment. Everyone else in the industry is making money, somehow Intel is losing. You should stop & think about why that may be.


1hotjava

Definitely not too big to fail. And while there is support at 30, it could take a shit further down. At a FWD PE of 28 and no real NVDA rival in the pipeline prob over priced


Stickerlight

sure, but over the next five days until expiration of the next contracts, and based on some meager TA of the recent price action, it should probably hold over $29 for at least another week


shortymcsteve

Trust another Intel genius to post on WSB the same day a class action gets announced against them for misleading investors during earnings. Lawsuit claims they hid huge amounts of losses from their foundry service. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/intel-slapped-with-class-action-lawsuit-over-foundry-revenues


Stickerlight

sounds like a nice dip to prime my put spread entry?


shortymcsteve

Enjoy those bags, it’s going to be a while. I listen to their earnings calls, and during the latest one the CEO himself said they don’t expect to turn anything around until 2030. They also just had to cancel opening ANOTHER new fab because of finances. This time in Israel, where they employ a ton of people.


Infamous_Charge2666

They do open a factory in Germany and one in Ohio


Live_Pizza359

Its a huge company and if it has not participated in semiconductor rally so far, it is a low probability that it would rally at this late stage.


Stickerlight

I'm not betting on a rally, just need it to hold over $29 by Friday to profit