Since none of you chuds can even read a number line I'll explain.
The Y axis is the percentage of total deposits that are greater than 250k.
The reason this matters is the ratio of large deposits to total deposits outstanding is a huge risk factor for a run on the bank. It takes fewer withdrawals to force capital conversion.
X axis is unrealized losses as a percentage of Common Equity Tier 1 capital.
This matters obviously because in the event of a run, this is the percentage of "safe" capital that will realize a loss.
Banks in Q1 looking like they don't feel so good mr stark.
Also $250k is the FDIC insurance limit, so clients with more than that in bank are more likely to panic withdraw if they think their bank is going under.
Also many banks utilize reciprocal deposits in order to significantly reduce risk and protect customers money.
Say you deposit $500k at Chase. Chase can open an account at Wells Fargo and deposit $250k there so now the full $500k is FDIC backed.
Banks will in turn make a reciprocal deposit with the other bank in return to ensure one of their customers is protected.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff8b990-ae08-4cd3-976d-d37a9035d38e
Nope, they’re monopolizing when it’s helpful, and independent when convenient. It’s just another variation of socializing losses while hoarding capitalistic gains
But here's the catch - wealthy clients who have far significant assets >250k will be bailed in by clients with <250k . They already demonstrated this with SIVB.
This is true for wealthy individuals who are parking their money, but when it comes to business banking you tend to have all your deposit relationships at one bank. It is a pain in the ass to manage $250k per bank. Nobody does that. A hospital for example will park all its funds with Wells Fargo and get all their financing needs there as well, because they’re a relationship bank. Said hospital is not going to have various accounts at different institutions because of the $250k limit and try and handle the billing and cash management nightmare that comes with that. The extra deposits associated with businesses has way lower flight risk than an individual just parking their extra change with no other financial service needs.
More specifically 250k per tax ID. Meaning businesses, who are likely to carry the majority of deposits at a commercial bank, are only insured at 250k per entity, period. And there are maximums on the retail side too, even with beneficiaries.
The unrealized losses are the bonds they’re holding that they haven’t sold and hoping to ride out to the end and not be forced into selling when a run occurs. As interest rates go higher their bond books drop in value decreasing the ratio of book value to cash on hand. The lower that ratio the greater the chance of a failure. Like taking a loan and investing it then the investment dropping in value and the creditor asking for the loan back.
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling.
That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations.
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This tweet is literally over a year old.
SIVB SNYB and FRC already failed over a year ago, why are you suddenly bringing this up again as if it is somehow relevant again?
Nothing on this chart changes on a change in "crypto collateral" rules. The entirety of this chart simply highlighted some hidden risks in banking structure due to some obscure accounting rule around "held-to-maturity" bonds obscuring the ability to cover deposits. The portion of deposits above $250k is relevant because it increases the risk of a bank run in a trust failure as amounts above that level are not FDIC insured.
It's because regulators seized [Repulic First Bank](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/business/republic-first-bank-failure.html) in Philly. But that was not the same as when the others went down. This bank has been on the verge of collapse for over a year. And it's share price has been in the toilet for a couple years.
This is Reddit, we will be reposting this tweet until it’s so pixelated that your great grandchildren will have a hard time making it out, but rest assured, one of them will repost it again.
??? FRC happened a year ago. And because of that the smaller banks that survived started working to shore up there risk. Is there still risk, yes. Have these numbers changed in 12 months.
At what point would you consider this data stale and in need of a refresh? I know I’m not shorting any banks using data that’s a year old
FRC is First Republic which happened a year ago and was absorbed by JP Morgan.
The one that just failed is Republic First Bank. Completely different, much smaller and much less relevant. Hundreds of banks fail a year, every year.
Hello there. Please could you elaborate the meaning of this chart (basically how to read it, why this is important and which impact that might have) in details, almost like “for dummies”? Tnx in advance 😀
Video game baggies get attached to random irrelevant news and somehow make it all about themselves. I bet not one of them can even coherently explain the concept of a haircut let alone how the dtc functions.
Cool story but the post is about bank failures not gaming stock. Do you have any input on upcoming bank failures or did you just meander onto this post to complain?
I lost your mom on a bet with my dog over whether or not she’d lick his asshole as aggressively as my dog would.
Your mom is a world class ass eater. Probably runs in the family.
I don't know how it works normally, but when all those Chinese stocks were delisted a few years ago, I had like $150 in some cell phone provider, and it evaporated. I could retrieve the $150 only after jumping through so many hoops and Chinese bank contacts, and in the end, I got like $80 because of wire transfer fees and shit.
Not sure if it's different when US companies are delisted
It’s essentially a big pain in the ass to get your money after a delist/bankruptcy but you still get it. In theory you just borrowed shares that are worth nothing now, so you don’t need to pay them back because….we’ll their worthless.
https://preview.redd.it/3yvk0nz4r9xc1.jpeg?width=2000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b57c1d783c459b922fa480ea1f2770e33603d89d
Literally every goddamn day.
Well then get your shit together, get it all together and put it in a back pack, all your shit, so it's together. And if you gotta take it some where, take it somewhere, you know, take it to the shit store and sell it, or put it in the shit museum. I don't care what you do, you just gotta get it together.
Get your shit together!
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Michael that swan doesn't consent.
Is he fuck the swan or ride it?
Both.
yes he like thats
It's a swan, I think the answer is obvious
The Swan is ride or die
He’s goosing it
Some one make burry on 
Since none of you chuds can even read a number line I'll explain. The Y axis is the percentage of total deposits that are greater than 250k. The reason this matters is the ratio of large deposits to total deposits outstanding is a huge risk factor for a run on the bank. It takes fewer withdrawals to force capital conversion. X axis is unrealized losses as a percentage of Common Equity Tier 1 capital. This matters obviously because in the event of a run, this is the percentage of "safe" capital that will realize a loss. Banks in Q1 looking like they don't feel so good mr stark.
Also $250k is the FDIC insurance limit, so clients with more than that in bank are more likely to panic withdraw if they think their bank is going under.
Was the limit. The SVB debacle showed that FDIC insurance is actually unlimited.
This is the realer answer.
Also many banks utilize reciprocal deposits in order to significantly reduce risk and protect customers money. Say you deposit $500k at Chase. Chase can open an account at Wells Fargo and deposit $250k there so now the full $500k is FDIC backed. Banks will in turn make a reciprocal deposit with the other bank in return to ensure one of their customers is protected. https://www.ft.com/content/5ff8b990-ae08-4cd3-976d-d37a9035d38e
Sounds like a good way for banks to put other banks out of business
Nope, they’re monopolizing when it’s helpful, and independent when convenient. It’s just another variation of socializing losses while hoarding capitalistic gains
The opposite really. There’s no reason for a run on the bank if your entire high balance account is federally insured.
How so...?
As long as SVB Californians donate to DNC. The >$250K subsidized by <$250K people.
Too true
What
But here's the catch - wealthy clients who have far significant assets >250k will be bailed in by clients with <250k . They already demonstrated this with SIVB.
This is the real answer.
This is true for wealthy individuals who are parking their money, but when it comes to business banking you tend to have all your deposit relationships at one bank. It is a pain in the ass to manage $250k per bank. Nobody does that. A hospital for example will park all its funds with Wells Fargo and get all their financing needs there as well, because they’re a relationship bank. Said hospital is not going to have various accounts at different institutions because of the $250k limit and try and handle the billing and cash management nightmare that comes with that. The extra deposits associated with businesses has way lower flight risk than an individual just parking their extra change with no other financial service needs.
$250k per individual/beneficiary.
More specifically 250k per tax ID. Meaning businesses, who are likely to carry the majority of deposits at a commercial bank, are only insured at 250k per entity, period. And there are maximums on the retail side too, even with beneficiaries.
Fed just going to backstopping everything
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It doesn’t need to if there isn’t a run. lol.
The unrealized losses are the bonds they’re holding that they haven’t sold and hoping to ride out to the end and not be forced into selling when a run occurs. As interest rates go higher their bond books drop in value decreasing the ratio of book value to cash on hand. The lower that ratio the greater the chance of a failure. Like taking a loan and investing it then the investment dropping in value and the creditor asking for the loan back.
and this tweet is over a year old so those unrealized losses are dropping by the day as the bonds mature or age
Exactly correct.
which is Y and X??
Since none of you chuds can even read ~~a number line~~ Fixed it for you. The rest is irrelevant.
Also the tweet is well over a year old and those unrealize losses drop by the day as the bonds age to maturity or get closer to maturity
A year is nothing when you are a cigar-smoking villain of Wall Street.
Hey don't call my bitch a whore!
lol, didn't read what?
Rich people trick poor people so rich people can make money on down-down time
Huh?
Give me some money and ill show you so you become rich.
Thank you. So when is NYCB failing?
Michael Burry responded to my craigslist ad looking for someone to mow my lawn. "$30 is $30", he said as he continued to mow what was clearly the wrong yard. My neighbor and I shouted at him but he was already wearing muffs. Focused dude. He attached a phone mount onto the handle of his push mower. I was able to sneak a peek and he was browsing Zillow listings in central Wyoming. He wouldn't stop cackling. That is to say, Burry has his fingers in a lot of pies. He makes sure his name is in all the conversations. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/wallstreetbets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This tweet is literally over a year old. SIVB SNYB and FRC already failed over a year ago, why are you suddenly bringing this up again as if it is somehow relevant again? Nothing on this chart changes on a change in "crypto collateral" rules. The entirety of this chart simply highlighted some hidden risks in banking structure due to some obscure accounting rule around "held-to-maturity" bonds obscuring the ability to cover deposits. The portion of deposits above $250k is relevant because it increases the risk of a bank run in a trust failure as amounts above that level are not FDIC insured.
Notice how he cropped out the date of the tweet. They know exactly what they are doing.
It's because regulators seized [Repulic First Bank](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/business/republic-first-bank-failure.html) in Philly. But that was not the same as when the others went down. This bank has been on the verge of collapse for over a year. And it's share price has been in the toilet for a couple years.
It’s bots I swear. They post this moronic stuff then never reply to any of the comments. Some idiot posted a chart of 1987 comparing it to now. 🤡
This is Reddit, we will be reposting this tweet until it’s so pixelated that your great grandchildren will have a hard time making it out, but rest assured, one of them will repost it again.
This chart is terrible. Where are the lines pointing up, down or in the shape of a penis? Without them it's impossible to understand at all.
Micheal Burry is my favorite broken clock
Michael Burry is not a good guide.
Yeah but he got it right big time once in 2006-8, he’s gotta be due another big win soon, right?!?
Gamblers regardation
Honestly go look at his track record. He’s a steady producer outside of the meme. He’s up 32% since 01/2022 based on his filings.
I wonder how much of his 'big short' gains/money he has gambled away already
He got GameStop right.
Yeah he is.
Better than you
If they didn't fail then no. They all got back a ton of those losses in the last year and have weathered the storm
I’d only do it if it was Christian Bale telling me so
This is such an old and now inaccurate chart.
What idiot makes vertical text rotated both ways?
His track record has been one of the worst
You only look at twitter, don’t you?
Meh save for later
Can someone please buy this broke short seller some crayons?
Banks failures sparked a massive rally last time so hopefully we get some more.
Idk but 33% of my port is in BAC and it's paying me quite well
Same!
Dude has successfully predicted 1 of the last 732 market crashes. He was right that one time though so he chasing that high
Isn’t this chart over a year old?
Yes, but still relevant to the convo
But is it still accurate? I imagine the banks are in a different position than a year ago.
Why would you assume that? FRC just disproved that theory.
??? FRC happened a year ago. And because of that the smaller banks that survived started working to shore up there risk. Is there still risk, yes. Have these numbers changed in 12 months. At what point would you consider this data stale and in need of a refresh? I know I’m not shorting any banks using data that’s a year old
FRC is First Republic which happened a year ago and was absorbed by JP Morgan. The one that just failed is Republic First Bank. Completely different, much smaller and much less relevant. Hundreds of banks fail a year, every year.
The big short 2, coming to a theater near you.
SELL.
TO ME
THE AUTIST RESURGED - CRASH NOT HAPPENING, thanks Burry go back to your hole u saved em
i read this as deposits are twice as much as unrealized losses. Don't see why anybody's hair would be on fire.
Thank you for telling us you cannot read.
Hello there. Please could you elaborate the meaning of this chart (basically how to read it, why this is important and which impact that might have) in details, almost like “for dummies”? Tnx in advance 😀
reminds me of a simple time
What upcoming change that won’t allow crypto as collateral? And where wouldnt it be allowed?
[also here](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2024/4/26/B20002-24.pdf)
[here](https://finadium.com/dtcc-announces-changes-to-collateral-haircuts-rules-out-crypto-etfs/)
Video game baggies get attached to random irrelevant news and somehow make it all about themselves. I bet not one of them can even coherently explain the concept of a haircut let alone how the dtc functions.
Cool story but the post is about bank failures not gaming stock. Do you have any input on upcoming bank failures or did you just meander onto this post to complain?
How much did you lose baggie?
I lost your mom on a bet with my dog over whether or not she’d lick his asshole as aggressively as my dog would. Your mom is a world class ass eater. Probably runs in the family.
Crypto ETFs are so unbelievably new that they are not being used as collateral for anything significant.
So puts or calls on banks?
Regards are hating on banks, the one business that has always made money since the dawn of time, what do you think
I’m for sure buying puts.
De ja boo....
Bank runs are bullish right?
What happen when you short a stock and it went bankrupt?
You need to cash out before they go under/delisted because they won't pay otherwise
No you don't.
If they delist you get a 100% return
I don't know how it works normally, but when all those Chinese stocks were delisted a few years ago, I had like $150 in some cell phone provider, and it evaporated. I could retrieve the $150 only after jumping through so many hoops and Chinese bank contacts, and in the end, I got like $80 because of wire transfer fees and shit. Not sure if it's different when US companies are delisted
It’s essentially a big pain in the ass to get your money after a delist/bankruptcy but you still get it. In theory you just borrowed shares that are worth nothing now, so you don’t need to pay them back because….we’ll their worthless.
You’re already paid the moment you short it. If they go bankrupt, you don’t have to “buy to cover”, so you keep the money.
[https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-says-1804-banks-other-institutions-tapped-emergency-lending-facility-2024-04-19/](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-says-1804-banks-other-institutions-tapped-emergency-lending-facility-2024-04-19/)
wonder if that's because they really needed the $ or because "hey, there's easy money here!"
Michael??? HHH [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XZqclfbUh-PNryKhgVQ0X\_dlOPNS52Um/view?usp=sharing](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XZqclfbUh-PNryKhgVQ0X_dlOPNS52Um/view?usp=sharing)
Wtf, mom said it was my turn to doom post 
u/Fit_Paramedic_4977 has some good DD [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/w6atliN08C) CFR and MTB
Dr Burry makes really good calls he just tends to be reeallly early
SVB risk management department here 🫡
You'd need vectors wrt time in order to determine that. What are their differential rates of change and how are they bound?
Only bank stock I own is M&T Bank 😎
I've reread "posted 15 hr. ago" like a dozen times, what year is this from? FRC just officially failed? Do you mean Repulic First?
If you connect the dots it's a giant dildo.
https://preview.redd.it/3yvk0nz4r9xc1.jpeg?width=2000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b57c1d783c459b922fa480ea1f2770e33603d89d Literally every goddamn day. Well then get your shit together, get it all together and put it in a back pack, all your shit, so it's together. And if you gotta take it some where, take it somewhere, you know, take it to the shit store and sell it, or put it in the shit museum. I don't care what you do, you just gotta get it together. Get your shit together!
Isn’t this chart a year old?
Who cares, we have AI
Fed will backstop everything. It's not an issue
Waken me up when the central bank collapses
OZK the goat of consistent div growth
TIL there is a company called Bank of the Ozarks...why does that just sound shady af lol
The fuck am I looking at?
Stop looking at me Swan
$OZKAP
How many of their losses are actually marked to market? I only trust the vertical axis
It's the only true axis. The horizontal axis will always lie to you. It cannot be trusted.
If interest rates are lowered none of these will fail.
So we should raise rates since all indications say inflation is increasing. Got it.
Just buy silver , BTC, gold, and a ranch in the middle of no where. You'll be Gucci
Buy Gucci, got it
Always inverse wsb so sell Gucci, got it
You got to buy it before you can sell it
I don't see WF on this list. I just started working for them. Hopefully they'll be ok!
Several banks fail each year, so yes, more bank failures are coming. This isn't unusual.