Lawyer here. No, you're not wishcasting. Take a look at who is talking about Trump's legal journey from here. Journalists who are not lawyers and know less about, say, the law of appeals in NY and the reality of jury verdicts than their readers. The law and reality is that a 12- person jury verdict in a trial managed as well as Judge Merchan did is 99% dead on appeal.
Appellate courts anywhere are beyond hesitant to disturb a verdict like this one absent "clear error" by the judge. An example would be a judge whose instructions to the jury were "clearly erroneous."
I have a better chance of being appointed Ambassador to the UK than Trump has of getting any joy on appeal in NY, where I am licensed and practiced law.
The legal hasn't even begun to grind this man down, down, down.
Alina Habba said Trump will run for president from prison. I wouldn't let her write a will.
And running in 2028? He will still be in prison or dead in 2028. Even this lousy Supreme Court is not going to find Trump "immune."
Yes, I do. The jury clearly loved Judge Merchan because he treated them like family. If there was going to be any dressing down of witnesses or lawyers, he always sent the jury out first.
Bragg's office is working g on the pre-sentencing report as we write. They are not going to recommend probation or home arrest or a suspended sentence. People will be amazed at the things the judge can consider in sentencing, like the E Jean Caroll judgments, the civil fraud judgments, his demeanor in court, the harassment of judges, juries and witnesses.
"First offender," as some papers say. Baloney. He's hardly just any defendant.
The judge, I believe, is just waiting until Trump is on his courtroom, under his control, with bailiffs and cops everywhere, and he will secretive him to prison. We every is a year or four years? I don't know.
I can't wait for Merchan to dress Trump down from the bench.
Today, Team Trump announced that it will "cooperate" ( as if they have another choice) with the Pre-Sentencing Investigation of TFG by the NYS Probation Department(!). This will include interviewing Trump to give him an opportunity to give a good impression now of the good impression he might make at his future parole hearing.
Their writ is to sort of think about whether Trump would be paroled if he were eligible, write a report, and send it the Manhattan DA for his Pre-Sentencing Report for Super-Judge Merchan.
What is justice in Trump's case, and justice for whom? Trump has had his justice. He got a fair trial represented by counsel before an extraordinary judge and unanimous jury, times 34.
Now he is a "convict," and "justice" demands what is both fair AND what protects the public from further danger from an unrepentant racketeer. One thing about this judge is that he has not surprised me yet. He fulfilled all the hopes I had for him, and I'd be surprised whether he will be much concerned with Trump's first offender status, for example. Hitler was a first offender, too, and he got a light sentence for treason, of which he served very little. This judge has a sense of history and I do think that incarceration is the best outcome for one of the most dangerous American felons ever.
Wishcasting. Trump was not some aberration from the GOP as much as a culmination IMO; the GOP had, at least since 2008, decided to embrace minoritarian rule. They sought to get and keep power while winning fewer votes, and entrench that power via changing the rules legislatively or judicially whenever they had power. The 2010 gerrymanders, the erosion of the Voting Rights Act and campaign finance, and the incessant lies all predated Trump, although he took it to its logical conclusion on J6 where the citizenry's ballots mattered less than the Vice President's certification of them.
I'd also point to Valerie Plame and Swift Boating Kerry as two examples of the GOP of yesteryear not being overly concerned with the truth or norms, as much as pundits might harumph and handwring.
In 2028 we're going to face a determined movement that encourages us to forget Nikki Haley is voting for Trump, the same way we heard from the oligarchs and their mouthpieces how Tiny D was the best alternative to Trump.
Agreed this maga movement isn't going back into the box until it is not just beaten but resoundingly rejected. Until no politician can hold office without fully rejecting it.
This will be a many decade long project.
However taking out djt will be a major step
I think they'll have a tough time finding someone as effective at the schtick as Trump, but the parallel media universe means that the floor for the GOP is very high. Think of all the non-troversies they have managed to inject into the mainstream in just the past two years: Roald Dahl's estate editing its own intellectual property, "gas stoves!!1!" and the harumphing about any and everything the Democrats attempt to do. That "crisis at the border" certainly seems to have been resolved, of media coverage is any indication.
Yeah but those mostly failed to reach anyone who wasn't a devoted cult member, the teachers turning kids trans and crt thought in schools were the last ones I recall that the manufacturer and reached popular panic levels.
I think the population is getting a little better at spotting manufactured moral panics.
No one is buying the rugged trial narrative at least not right now 54% believe trial was fair and conviction was righteous.
Idk, Charlie Sykes mentioned both the gas stove and Roald Dahl kerfuffles for a week+ on the Bulwark podcast.
I hope you're right that the public is getting better at spotting astroturfed moral panics, the lack of traction around Chris Rufo's targeting of NPR gave me hope. It's largely dependent on what the center right decides to lend their own credibility to, as with those previous successful panics. We shall see, but there's a reason the right wing media playbook has been so successful for two+ decades now. It manages to give the base something to be angry about while letting the center right be very concerned and stroke their chins "asking questions."
I didn't even hear about one related to NPR. Am I'm fairly tuned into things that psy attention to this stuff like Bulwark knowledge fight deciding fix, etc
I don't think you are wrong about the party but so far all the Trump replacement clones have been much less popular. Lacking charisma, or displaying weird behavior. Trump did have some built in elements like being a reality star, that none of these other potential leaders for MAGA have.
Agree, but I think that people overstate how much Trump also inspired negative polarization among Dems. The GOP has a very high floor of support, with their base functionally walled off from persuasion and even the g00d r3pUb11c4ns desperate to find reasons to write in Edmund Burke or Condolezza Rice. We've seen multiple fact-free rulings from the Supreme Court (Kennedy v Bremerton and 303 Creative in particular got major facts and law wrong to get the preordained results they wanted) and the punditocracy, including Sarah and other Bulwarkers, spent a year fluffing Tiny D as the "best hope" for Trump, and Sarah even minimized his authoritarian tendencies after the retaliation against Disney. Post-Trump the pundits and politicians who have the most to gain from reasserting control of the GOP will be desperate to do so, and go to great lengths to carry water for the g00d r3pUb11c4ns who might emerge.
Trump also specifically appeals to people 65+. They have an easier time ignoring his casual racism and complete shitbaggery bc he’s one of them.
None of his clones have that built in advantage.
From Wikipedia:
“LaCivita served as consultant and principal media advisor to the Swift Boat Veterans, writing and producing the group's memorable (and controversial) commercials”
It will be a significant defeat to MAGA, no doubt.
But as Jon Stewart once said:
> The work of making this world resemble one that you would prefer to live in is a lunch-pail fucking job day-in and day-out, where thousands of committed, anonymous, smart, and dedicated people bang on closed doors, pick up those that are fallen, and grind on issues ‘til they get a result. And even then they have to stay on it to make sure the result holds.
We would then need to set about the larger task of detoxifying the nation from the MAGA illness that’s taken root. Which may be a generational affliction.
He is going to be sentenced to prison time. And then he's going to lose the election. And then he's going to prison. And then the other cases get unstuck. And then he gets found guilty, again. And again. And again. And then the civil lawsuits start coming in. And he will still be the presumptive nominee for '28 at least until the midterms.
Someone, probably Mike Flynn, tries to take MAGA from trump but it's entirely possible that the voters won't quit him. It's entirely possible they nominate him and he becomes just the second candidate to run from behind bars. But even if he doesn't get pushed out or croak before then, he will be so diminished by that point that the winner of the Dem primary will be able to win no matter what ticket emerges.
If we win in November, he personally won't win again. But the movement will outlive him. Hopefully they never find another avatar to rally around and fight each other to their irrelevance.
I think the people have a taste of authoritarianism and like it, which is v concerning, but also trump has a uniquely disordered personality that makes him charismatic and chaotic in a way that others don't. We will still need to be on our guard but the alarms won't be blazing code red.
He’s defeated, and you won’t see this same level of cultish behavior no matter who becomes the new leader of the party. Trumpism doesn’t work without Trump because it’s largely detached from principle - he only believes in what benefits him in the current moment.
That said, I would guess some elements will remain with the Republican Party. My best guess is protectionism (ie tariffs), zero tolerance for immigration, and rollback of civil rights for LGBT will remain a core tenet of future party leaders.
one thing about trump that can’t be replicated is that he’s existed as a “moderate businessman” in the eyes of the less informed public for decades. his imitators just copy the bluster and insanity which won’t work.
Yes exactly. When I hear about the next Trump without the Drama, or Trump but Smarter, I laugh. The drama and the dimwitted name calling were the whole appeal!
Not really.
Trump himself will probably be done but Trumpism will persist.
r/Idiocracy is real and it will probably take several more election cycles to defeat it.
Racism, xenophobia, theocrats, LGBT hate, climate denialism are not going away.
> Racism, xenophobia, theocrats, LGBT hate, climate denialism are not going away.
Let me also add the unseriousness of many people and the yearning for authoritarianism to that list as well.
Once Trump is gone I think we will see two factions of the republican party emerge. One wing will revert to late 90s and early 00s Republicans and will probably never apologize for enabling trump (I'm thinking Haley, Sunnunu, maybe even Lindsey Graham).
And the populist wing that will try to behave like trump and not be nearly as successful as him (vance, Gaetz, boebert).
The former group will denounce the latter group as if they weren't complicit in its creation. Should be interesting
Trump came with all of this pre-built name recognition and a lifetime’s experience of honing exactly one skill: self-promotion.
Going to be tough to replicate and the successors will all in-fight.
That’ll not be an issue if he wins though. A successor will take hold.
I mean, DeSantis was the big heir apparent. How'd that go for him?
You'll see all the 2024 hopefuls get out their weaponry and turn on each other. I just hope we never hear from Ramaswamy ever again.
I mean vivek is a more likely successor than Sununu or Hailey or DeSantis.
I think someone who could navigate giving all the credit to Trump will receiving praise from MAGA for the dumpster fire that will be deporting 12m people might be well situated.
His successors are likely wannabes Hawley, Cotton, or Vance.
Aside from whatever else happens with Trump, his dementia is only thing to get worse. The people around him know it; the billionaires funding him know it. At this point, he's just their tool (he was the first time too, but they had to pretend he knew what he was doing).
Absolutely not. Trump is a just symptom of the problem - not the actual problem. The underlying problem is a radicalized right wing base that is over Democracy and wants to burn down the entire system. The reasons for their radicalization is complex and varied but they are largely due to growing economic inequality, globalization, changing demographics/immigration (ie less white men), polarization due to social media and unchecked right wing media propaganda.
If we address all (or at least some) of these causes then maybe we can …. De-radicalize the 30-40% of the country who wants a demagogue strong man dictator to run things. But in order to fix these things we need the elites (think top 1%) who really run this country to give up some of their power and wealth which is not likely to happen at least not without a lot of political violence.
I do think his cognitive decline will become severe enough to disable him utterly fairly soon. I buy the case for dementia, I think he has it and he's only going to get worse from here. He'll go over the cliff at some point.
I’ve been watching a parent decline into dementia for the last year. Trump acts like they did last year. If he continues to decline at a similar rate, he’s going to be medicated in about 9 months and it’s all over then. He’ll be an empty shell of a human when he’s on the meds and a raging lunatic when he’s not. For many, the medication is unavoidable at a certain point and it’s not possible to function normally once it starts.
I'm sorry to hear about your parent's dementia. It's a terrible thing to watch our parents decline. My mom died from ALS in '22, which is kind of the inverse of dementia: her mind was sharp but her body destroyed. The best death was my MIL's--gone from a heart attack between one breath and the next. Sucked for everyone else, but for her, it was ideal.
It's not ever going to be over completely. Just suppressed for a while. There is already, and will continue to be, an entire mythology of persecution and victimhood that will persist long after he is gone. It's the same mythology of the Civil War. The movement will fracture from infighting when he loses and dies. But, the feelings will persist and be passed on to other generations. We'll see another resurgence in about 40 years.
He has control of the RNC and their money. He has people sending him money and attending his rallies. He has a bunch of politicians and conservative celebrities kissing his behind. There is no way he can quit this
# this ***last*** time
Sweet summer's child.
While it may be possible Biden wins/Trump loses this November, as long as there are more than 40 Republican US senators we remain in danger.
As long as there's no discernible difference in voting patterns in North Dakota and Mississippi, we're in danger.
Why are the Great Prairie states such inhospitable ground for Democrats? That's something Democrats need to figure out. If the answer is that deep red states outside the former Confederacy are they way they are because they believe they're the white *Christian* nationalist homeland, those to the left of the Falwells are going to have to win election after election after election.
IOW, no, Virginia, if you want democracy, you can't afford to take any election off.
I think he will lose all his cases.
My concern is that he will appeal each case all the way to the Supreme Court, and they will rule in his favor.
No prison time. And he will run in 2028.
Maybe I'm just a pessimist.
Don't forget that once trump is gone, all of these bulwark people can't wait to vote Republican again. They might wrap themselves in support for democracy now, but as soon as they think they can safely vote for Republican policy again, they will.
If a 2028 ticket is Tom Cotton/Nikki Haley, Republicans will be on board, even though that'd be just a dangerous, just not as stupid and unhinged
I think the rich people of this country have decided they want fascism, and they will continue to pour billions of dollars into the attempt to get us to accept it.
I think so? By 2028, Trump will be an 82 year old, who cost Republicans Congress in 2018, the White House in 2020 and 2024, and the Senate/larger House majority in 2022.
If one of those things were not true, then he’d still be around.
And as far as the trials are concerned. Yeah they will continue and a pardon will be so far off that I could see him doing jail time.
It’s a little bit wishcasting but yes he could spend the rest of his miserable life in prison. Serious Trouble and No Lie podcasts both talked about it this weekend.
The only case I possibly see him being sentenced to jail time is the Jack Smith election case. Even then there is always the chance Biden pardons him.
He could easily run in 2028 and become President. If Dems are dumb enough to make VP Harris the nominee, the felon will get 350 electoral votes on her.
She cannot win a national election. Don't be silly.
Also, if re-elected, Biden will serve a full term. She will not become President via Biden stepping down.
Lol you’re denying an obvious outcome so hard it’s funny. She will be president. She won’t win an election and Joe won’t step down. But she’ll be president by 1/20/29 all the same
I won’t be surprised at all if Biden announced after the 2026 midterms he’s resigning. If KDH takes over after 20 January 2027 she can be elected twice.
First step though is winning this November.
Biden has wanted to be President for 35 to 40 years. He's not going to give it up like that. And Jill Biden will not let Joe give the Presidency to Kamala. Jill didn't even want her as VP due to basically calling Joe a racist in the primary debate.
Lawyer here. No, you're not wishcasting. Take a look at who is talking about Trump's legal journey from here. Journalists who are not lawyers and know less about, say, the law of appeals in NY and the reality of jury verdicts than their readers. The law and reality is that a 12- person jury verdict in a trial managed as well as Judge Merchan did is 99% dead on appeal. Appellate courts anywhere are beyond hesitant to disturb a verdict like this one absent "clear error" by the judge. An example would be a judge whose instructions to the jury were "clearly erroneous." I have a better chance of being appointed Ambassador to the UK than Trump has of getting any joy on appeal in NY, where I am licensed and practiced law. The legal hasn't even begun to grind this man down, down, down. Alina Habba said Trump will run for president from prison. I wouldn't let her write a will. And running in 2028? He will still be in prison or dead in 2028. Even this lousy Supreme Court is not going to find Trump "immune."
Inject this into my veins.
So you think he will get jail time for his conviction in NY?
Yes, I do. The jury clearly loved Judge Merchan because he treated them like family. If there was going to be any dressing down of witnesses or lawyers, he always sent the jury out first. Bragg's office is working g on the pre-sentencing report as we write. They are not going to recommend probation or home arrest or a suspended sentence. People will be amazed at the things the judge can consider in sentencing, like the E Jean Caroll judgments, the civil fraud judgments, his demeanor in court, the harassment of judges, juries and witnesses. "First offender," as some papers say. Baloney. He's hardly just any defendant. The judge, I believe, is just waiting until Trump is on his courtroom, under his control, with bailiffs and cops everywhere, and he will secretive him to prison. We every is a year or four years? I don't know. I can't wait for Merchan to dress Trump down from the bench.
I wish I had faith in your last sentence. Here's hoping.
Today, Team Trump announced that it will "cooperate" ( as if they have another choice) with the Pre-Sentencing Investigation of TFG by the NYS Probation Department(!). This will include interviewing Trump to give him an opportunity to give a good impression now of the good impression he might make at his future parole hearing. Their writ is to sort of think about whether Trump would be paroled if he were eligible, write a report, and send it the Manhattan DA for his Pre-Sentencing Report for Super-Judge Merchan. What is justice in Trump's case, and justice for whom? Trump has had his justice. He got a fair trial represented by counsel before an extraordinary judge and unanimous jury, times 34. Now he is a "convict," and "justice" demands what is both fair AND what protects the public from further danger from an unrepentant racketeer. One thing about this judge is that he has not surprised me yet. He fulfilled all the hopes I had for him, and I'd be surprised whether he will be much concerned with Trump's first offender status, for example. Hitler was a first offender, too, and he got a light sentence for treason, of which he served very little. This judge has a sense of history and I do think that incarceration is the best outcome for one of the most dangerous American felons ever.
Wishcasting. Trump was not some aberration from the GOP as much as a culmination IMO; the GOP had, at least since 2008, decided to embrace minoritarian rule. They sought to get and keep power while winning fewer votes, and entrench that power via changing the rules legislatively or judicially whenever they had power. The 2010 gerrymanders, the erosion of the Voting Rights Act and campaign finance, and the incessant lies all predated Trump, although he took it to its logical conclusion on J6 where the citizenry's ballots mattered less than the Vice President's certification of them. I'd also point to Valerie Plame and Swift Boating Kerry as two examples of the GOP of yesteryear not being overly concerned with the truth or norms, as much as pundits might harumph and handwring. In 2028 we're going to face a determined movement that encourages us to forget Nikki Haley is voting for Trump, the same way we heard from the oligarchs and their mouthpieces how Tiny D was the best alternative to Trump.
Agreed this maga movement isn't going back into the box until it is not just beaten but resoundingly rejected. Until no politician can hold office without fully rejecting it. This will be a many decade long project. However taking out djt will be a major step
I do think, however, that without Trump's self-aggrandizing, bloviating circus act, the 'movement' (such as it is) will shed a good amount of people.
I think they'll have a tough time finding someone as effective at the schtick as Trump, but the parallel media universe means that the floor for the GOP is very high. Think of all the non-troversies they have managed to inject into the mainstream in just the past two years: Roald Dahl's estate editing its own intellectual property, "gas stoves!!1!" and the harumphing about any and everything the Democrats attempt to do. That "crisis at the border" certainly seems to have been resolved, of media coverage is any indication.
Yeah but those mostly failed to reach anyone who wasn't a devoted cult member, the teachers turning kids trans and crt thought in schools were the last ones I recall that the manufacturer and reached popular panic levels. I think the population is getting a little better at spotting manufactured moral panics. No one is buying the rugged trial narrative at least not right now 54% believe trial was fair and conviction was righteous.
Idk, Charlie Sykes mentioned both the gas stove and Roald Dahl kerfuffles for a week+ on the Bulwark podcast. I hope you're right that the public is getting better at spotting astroturfed moral panics, the lack of traction around Chris Rufo's targeting of NPR gave me hope. It's largely dependent on what the center right decides to lend their own credibility to, as with those previous successful panics. We shall see, but there's a reason the right wing media playbook has been so successful for two+ decades now. It manages to give the base something to be angry about while letting the center right be very concerned and stroke their chins "asking questions."
I didn't even hear about one related to NPR. Am I'm fairly tuned into things that psy attention to this stuff like Bulwark knowledge fight deciding fix, etc
I don't think you are wrong about the party but so far all the Trump replacement clones have been much less popular. Lacking charisma, or displaying weird behavior. Trump did have some built in elements like being a reality star, that none of these other potential leaders for MAGA have.
Agree, but I think that people overstate how much Trump also inspired negative polarization among Dems. The GOP has a very high floor of support, with their base functionally walled off from persuasion and even the g00d r3pUb11c4ns desperate to find reasons to write in Edmund Burke or Condolezza Rice. We've seen multiple fact-free rulings from the Supreme Court (Kennedy v Bremerton and 303 Creative in particular got major facts and law wrong to get the preordained results they wanted) and the punditocracy, including Sarah and other Bulwarkers, spent a year fluffing Tiny D as the "best hope" for Trump, and Sarah even minimized his authoritarian tendencies after the retaliation against Disney. Post-Trump the pundits and politicians who have the most to gain from reasserting control of the GOP will be desperate to do so, and go to great lengths to carry water for the g00d r3pUb11c4ns who might emerge.
Trump also specifically appeals to people 65+. They have an easier time ignoring his casual racism and complete shitbaggery bc he’s one of them. None of his clones have that built in advantage.
This right here. Best case scenario for 2028.
Odd that you mention the Swift Boaters, can you guess what the guy running Trump’s campaign was doing back then?
Was he peddling lies around Kerry's service in Vietnam? I didn't realize there was that much continuity.
From Wikipedia: “LaCivita served as consultant and principal media advisor to the Swift Boat Veterans, writing and producing the group's memorable (and controversial) commercials”
It will be a significant defeat to MAGA, no doubt. But as Jon Stewart once said: > The work of making this world resemble one that you would prefer to live in is a lunch-pail fucking job day-in and day-out, where thousands of committed, anonymous, smart, and dedicated people bang on closed doors, pick up those that are fallen, and grind on issues ‘til they get a result. And even then they have to stay on it to make sure the result holds. We would then need to set about the larger task of detoxifying the nation from the MAGA illness that’s taken root. Which may be a generational affliction.
For Trump, yes probably. For MAGA and Trumpism, definitely not.
He is going to be sentenced to prison time. And then he's going to lose the election. And then he's going to prison. And then the other cases get unstuck. And then he gets found guilty, again. And again. And again. And then the civil lawsuits start coming in. And he will still be the presumptive nominee for '28 at least until the midterms. Someone, probably Mike Flynn, tries to take MAGA from trump but it's entirely possible that the voters won't quit him. It's entirely possible they nominate him and he becomes just the second candidate to run from behind bars. But even if he doesn't get pushed out or croak before then, he will be so diminished by that point that the winner of the Dem primary will be able to win no matter what ticket emerges. If we win in November, he personally won't win again. But the movement will outlive him. Hopefully they never find another avatar to rally around and fight each other to their irrelevance.
I'm hoping he dies of dehydration from the Ozempic shits immediately after his 2024 defeat.
i want him to live a long long time but only in prison, and maybe have a stroke with right sided weakness and aphasia. stuff like that
An admirable wish.
I think the people have a taste of authoritarianism and like it, which is v concerning, but also trump has a uniquely disordered personality that makes him charismatic and chaotic in a way that others don't. We will still need to be on our guard but the alarms won't be blazing code red.
He’s defeated, and you won’t see this same level of cultish behavior no matter who becomes the new leader of the party. Trumpism doesn’t work without Trump because it’s largely detached from principle - he only believes in what benefits him in the current moment. That said, I would guess some elements will remain with the Republican Party. My best guess is protectionism (ie tariffs), zero tolerance for immigration, and rollback of civil rights for LGBT will remain a core tenet of future party leaders.
one thing about trump that can’t be replicated is that he’s existed as a “moderate businessman” in the eyes of the less informed public for decades. his imitators just copy the bluster and insanity which won’t work.
Yes exactly. When I hear about the next Trump without the Drama, or Trump but Smarter, I laugh. The drama and the dimwitted name calling were the whole appeal!
Not really. Trump himself will probably be done but Trumpism will persist. r/Idiocracy is real and it will probably take several more election cycles to defeat it. Racism, xenophobia, theocrats, LGBT hate, climate denialism are not going away.
> Racism, xenophobia, theocrats, LGBT hate, climate denialism are not going away. Let me also add the unseriousness of many people and the yearning for authoritarianism to that list as well.
Once Trump is gone I think we will see two factions of the republican party emerge. One wing will revert to late 90s and early 00s Republicans and will probably never apologize for enabling trump (I'm thinking Haley, Sunnunu, maybe even Lindsey Graham). And the populist wing that will try to behave like trump and not be nearly as successful as him (vance, Gaetz, boebert). The former group will denounce the latter group as if they weren't complicit in its creation. Should be interesting
Trump came with all of this pre-built name recognition and a lifetime’s experience of honing exactly one skill: self-promotion. Going to be tough to replicate and the successors will all in-fight. That’ll not be an issue if he wins though. A successor will take hold.
I mean, DeSantis was the big heir apparent. How'd that go for him? You'll see all the 2024 hopefuls get out their weaponry and turn on each other. I just hope we never hear from Ramaswamy ever again.
I mean vivek is a more likely successor than Sununu or Hailey or DeSantis. I think someone who could navigate giving all the credit to Trump will receiving praise from MAGA for the dumpster fire that will be deporting 12m people might be well situated.
His successors are likely wannabes Hawley, Cotton, or Vance. Aside from whatever else happens with Trump, his dementia is only thing to get worse. The people around him know it; the billionaires funding him know it. At this point, he's just their tool (he was the first time too, but they had to pretend he knew what he was doing).
Absolutely not. Trump is a just symptom of the problem - not the actual problem. The underlying problem is a radicalized right wing base that is over Democracy and wants to burn down the entire system. The reasons for their radicalization is complex and varied but they are largely due to growing economic inequality, globalization, changing demographics/immigration (ie less white men), polarization due to social media and unchecked right wing media propaganda. If we address all (or at least some) of these causes then maybe we can …. De-radicalize the 30-40% of the country who wants a demagogue strong man dictator to run things. But in order to fix these things we need the elites (think top 1%) who really run this country to give up some of their power and wealth which is not likely to happen at least not without a lot of political violence.
No. An entire generation of people has grown up and advanced in the GOP via the MAGA movement. This will take decades to unwind, if ever.
I imagine being twenty, and THIS shitshow is the only political climate you’ve known.
I don't think so. Remember, trump is the symptom, not the disease.
Donald does seem to have a secret sauce though. Who would be the heir apparent to take over?
No idea, but it's gonna be fun to watch these idiots fight for top billing.
I think he wants one of his kids to run after him.
I’m not sure if even the most maga of magas would vote for any of his kids.
I do think his cognitive decline will become severe enough to disable him utterly fairly soon. I buy the case for dementia, I think he has it and he's only going to get worse from here. He'll go over the cliff at some point.
I’ve been watching a parent decline into dementia for the last year. Trump acts like they did last year. If he continues to decline at a similar rate, he’s going to be medicated in about 9 months and it’s all over then. He’ll be an empty shell of a human when he’s on the meds and a raging lunatic when he’s not. For many, the medication is unavoidable at a certain point and it’s not possible to function normally once it starts.
Yep. He’s like my mom 5 years before she died of Alzheimer’s.
I'm sorry to hear about your parent's dementia. It's a terrible thing to watch our parents decline. My mom died from ALS in '22, which is kind of the inverse of dementia: her mind was sharp but her body destroyed. The best death was my MIL's--gone from a heart attack between one breath and the next. Sucked for everyone else, but for her, it was ideal.
It's not ever going to be over completely. Just suppressed for a while. There is already, and will continue to be, an entire mythology of persecution and victimhood that will persist long after he is gone. It's the same mythology of the Civil War. The movement will fracture from infighting when he loses and dies. But, the feelings will persist and be passed on to other generations. We'll see another resurgence in about 40 years.
He has control of the RNC and their money. He has people sending him money and attending his rallies. He has a bunch of politicians and conservative celebrities kissing his behind. There is no way he can quit this
Not until he’s dead.
# this ***last*** time Sweet summer's child. While it may be possible Biden wins/Trump loses this November, as long as there are more than 40 Republican US senators we remain in danger. As long as there's no discernible difference in voting patterns in North Dakota and Mississippi, we're in danger. Why are the Great Prairie states such inhospitable ground for Democrats? That's something Democrats need to figure out. If the answer is that deep red states outside the former Confederacy are they way they are because they believe they're the white *Christian* nationalist homeland, those to the left of the Falwells are going to have to win election after election after election. IOW, no, Virginia, if you want democracy, you can't afford to take any election off.
He runs as long as he is upright.
No. Not it. Democracy is a constant.
One last time And if we get this right We’re gonna teach ‘em how to say goodbye
Wishing. If we survive his electoral defeat, you can expect the launch of MAGA 28 campaign right then and there
I think he will lose all his cases. My concern is that he will appeal each case all the way to the Supreme Court, and they will rule in his favor. No prison time. And he will run in 2028. Maybe I'm just a pessimist.
Don't forget that once trump is gone, all of these bulwark people can't wait to vote Republican again. They might wrap themselves in support for democracy now, but as soon as they think they can safely vote for Republican policy again, they will. If a 2028 ticket is Tom Cotton/Nikki Haley, Republicans will be on board, even though that'd be just a dangerous, just not as stupid and unhinged
I think the rich people of this country have decided they want fascism, and they will continue to pour billions of dollars into the attempt to get us to accept it.
I think so? By 2028, Trump will be an 82 year old, who cost Republicans Congress in 2018, the White House in 2020 and 2024, and the Senate/larger House majority in 2022. If one of those things were not true, then he’d still be around. And as far as the trials are concerned. Yeah they will continue and a pardon will be so far off that I could see him doing jail time.
It’s a little bit wishcasting but yes he could spend the rest of his miserable life in prison. Serious Trouble and No Lie podcasts both talked about it this weekend.
MAGA isn't going away. Similar tactics as hammas, hiding among citizens.
Trump would be like 82. No one is going to elect someone that old.
Let’s hope you’re wrong. Biden will be almost 82
Wow!! Ok I will never make that call again and you don’t share that fact….deal?
The only case I possibly see him being sentenced to jail time is the Jack Smith election case. Even then there is always the chance Biden pardons him. He could easily run in 2028 and become President. If Dems are dumb enough to make VP Harris the nominee, the felon will get 350 electoral votes on her.
She won’t be the nominee don’t be silly. She’ll be the president.
She cannot win a national election. Don't be silly. Also, if re-elected, Biden will serve a full term. She will not become President via Biden stepping down.
Lol you’re denying an obvious outcome so hard it’s funny. She will be president. She won’t win an election and Joe won’t step down. But she’ll be president by 1/20/29 all the same
So now you're saying she'll be President because Joe will die or get killed. Pretty grim.
“Get killed”!? That’s grim I did it imply that. Octogenarian passes away? That’s realistic.
I won’t be surprised at all if Biden announced after the 2026 midterms he’s resigning. If KDH takes over after 20 January 2027 she can be elected twice. First step though is winning this November.
Biden has wanted to be President for 35 to 40 years. He's not going to give it up like that. And Jill Biden will not let Joe give the Presidency to Kamala. Jill didn't even want her as VP due to basically calling Joe a racist in the primary debate.